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1、 【表_页脚1】本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。（免责声明的英文译文请参见附录）Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 研究报告 Research Report 26 Oct 2023 全球能源战略全球能源战略 全球能源并购凸显板块价值以及长端油价上行 Table_Info 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标

2、价 2023E 2024E Albemarle Outperform 240.00 7.0 8.3 Array Tech.Outperform 28.00 21.2 15.5 Ballard Power Outperform 8.00 n.a.n.a.布鲁姆能源 Outperform 33.00 n.a.50.4 Clearway Energy Outperform 43.00 21.4 15.8 Enphase Energy Outperform 248.00 26.0 20.0 INPEX Outperform 2,700 8.6 7.9 利文特 Outperform 37.00 10.4

3、 8.7 Lynas Rare Earth Outperform 12.00 22.8 21.7 MP Materials Outperform 56.00 86.1 24.0 Nextracker Outperform 50.00 23.4 18.1 普拉格能源 Outperform 15.00 n.a.n.a.SolarEgde Tech.Outperform 300.00 16.9 14.3 Vestas Wind Sys.Outperform 300.00 721.5 27.8 JGC Holdings Outperform 2,386 13.9 13.1 RENOVA Outperf

4、orm 1,450 9.0 19.0 资料来源：Factset,HTI Related Reports Buy Livent,JGC,Nextracker and Plug into the results and be more cautious on Vestas,Clearway Energy,MP Materials,Enphase and RENOVA(17 Oct 2023)Global Ideas across the old and new energy value chain(16 Oct 2023)Positioning across the Global old ener

5、gy and new energy value chain;定位全球“旧能源”和“新能源”价值链(16 Oct 2023)Improvement in NdPr Oxide Prices,but Challenging Earnings Environment;Low Magnet Margins Persisting(16 Oct 2023)EV Battery Producers Likely to Outperform New Energy Sub-sectors;Downside Risks for Lithium Prices(16 Oct 2023)Increasingly tig

6、ht Global LNG market;Potential for Higher LNG prices;Positive for LNG Producers/Contractors(11 Oct 2023)US Hydrogen Development Accelerating;Buy Plug,Bloom Energy and Ballard(11 Oct 2023)High penetration and strong growth in September;Great potential in 4Q23(11 Oct 2023)Argentina election potentiall

7、y supportive for the lithium industry;Buy Livent and Albemarle(10 Oct 2023)Rising Middle East tension,but significant impacts to physical oil supply unlikely(9 Oct 2023)Middle East Drilling IPOs Highlights Positive Oil Service Cycle and Value in China Names(3 Oct 2023)（本报告为 2023 年 10 月 24 日发布的英文报告的翻

8、译版。）亚洲能源桶油价格相对于全球能源折价亚洲能源桶油价格相对于全球能源折价 50%雪佛龙宣布拟收购赫斯能源（Hess Energy）公司（两家公司均未获得海通国际评级）（见发布稿），这不仅凸显了买卖双方对长期油价前景看法的分歧有所收窄（尽管油价可能会保持高位）（见图1），而且在我们看来，全球能源板块的估值也具有吸引力。就海就海通国际亚洲能源股票覆盖而言，我们对中国海洋石油、中国石通国际亚洲能源股票覆盖而言，我们对中国海洋石油、中国石化、中国石油股份和国际石油开发帝石的评级为化、中国石油股份和国际石油开发帝石的评级为“优于大盘优于大盘”。近期的交易活动也反映了：1.成本降低和优化，也许该行业认

9、为中期油价的上行空间有限，2.战略储备定位，3.能源转型战略为十年期，而非多年期，4.购买其他公司的桶油可能比回购股票更具吸引力。全球及亚全球及亚洲能源股价值优于大盘：洲能源股价值优于大盘：我们此前强调，我们持续认为能源股仍具备价值，且投资者并未超配该板块，详见油价上涨难以持续除非中国石油需求超预期，但中国能源股优于全球能源股；买入中国石油服务。2024 年（预测）全球能源公司平均一致预测估值为约 4.6 倍企业价值倍数，较 10 年历史平均折价约为 35%，平均股息率约为 4.2%，亚洲能源公司平均一致预测估值约为 3.6 倍企业价值倍数，较 10 年历史平均折价约为 15%，平均股息率为

10、5.9%，如图 2。亚洲能源没有并购保费：亚洲能源没有并购保费：我们对全球和亚洲能源公司储量价值的分析显示，全球能源公司与亚洲能源公司的桶值溢价。这主要反映了1.全球能源公司规模和储备基地质量以及增长，即庞大的资源基础使公司能够以最低的成本开发储备，并提供最佳回报，2.大多数亚洲能源公司拥有大量政府所有权，因此没有并购机会。不过，亚洲能源股价值折价与全球能源的差距目前已经扩大至约 50%，为2022 年 10 月11 月以来最大，见图 3。近十年油价上涨？：在当前的成本和税收环境下，按照当前的现近十年油价上涨？：在当前的成本和税收环境下，按照当前的现货油价和大多数公司的长期价格假设，即货油价和

11、大多数公司的长期价格假设，即 60-70 美元美元/桶，大多数桶，大多数新石油项目都是经济的。在持续的通胀环境下，这十年行业出现新石油项目都是经济的。在持续的通胀环境下，这十年行业出现油价上涨似乎是合理的，我们重申了布伦特原油油价上涨似乎是合理的，我们重申了布伦特原油 65 美元美元/桶的长期桶的长期假设。假设。风险提示：风险提示：1.石油产品需求下降，2.油价上涨，3.成本上升，4.地缘政治 Table_Author Scott Darling Axel Leven Lena Shen S A L 7585955Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-2

12、3HAI China EnergyHAI India EnergyMSCI China 26 Oct 2023 2 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 本周图表本周图表 图图 1：大部分现有和部分新建油田项目长期盈亏平衡油价低于：大部分现有和部分新建油田项目长期盈亏平衡油价低于 65 美元美元/桶桶 资料来源：公司数据，彭博社，海通国际预测。图表为全球石油供应成本曲线 图图 2：亚洲能源与全球能源估值水平随时间变化：亚洲能源与全球能源估值水平随时间变化 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究，图表为亚洲和全球能源板块的市净率随时间变化以及布伦特原油 图图 3：全球与亚洲能源价差：全球

13、与亚洲能源价差 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表为全球和亚洲能源的内涵价值已探明石油天然气储量随时间变化 在当前成本和税收环境下，按照当前的现货油价和大多数公司的长期价格假设，即 60-70 美元/桶。我们对 2026 年及以后的长期布伦特原油价格假设为 65 美元/桶 亚洲能源以市净率计价，与全球能源相比折价约 45%亚洲桶油贸易相比全球能源桶油折价约为 50%2008 年以来第二大的历史折价。这反映了 1.亚洲部分地区的需求展望，2.全球能源进一步关注能源转型，3.欧洲天然气/液化天然气对全球能源名称的偏见，4.增加美国能源市场对全球能源的敞口 26 Oct 2023 3 Table_

14、header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 4：隐含的全球能源并购交易范围和可比公司，：隐含的全球能源并购交易范围和可比公司，24 年预测企业价值倍数年预测企业价值倍数 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表为 24 年预测全球能源公司的企业价值倍数，以及 XOM-PDX 和 CVX-HES 交易的隐含交易估值差距。26 Oct 2023 4 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 海通国际全球新能源估值水平与表现海通国际全球新能源估值水平与表现 图图 5：海通国际全球清洁能源价值链中新能源敞口：海通国际全球清洁能源价值链中新能源敞口 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究，图表为海通

15、国际研究对全球新能源覆盖偏向清洁能源类型 图图 6：海通国际全球新能源按地域营收拆分：海通国际全球新能源按地域营收拆分 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究，图表为海通国际研究全球新能源营收按地区拆分 图图 7：海通国际全球新能源和传统能源绝对股价表现：海通国际全球新能源和传统能源绝对股价表现 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表为海通国际全球新能源年初至今、2023 年上半年和 2023 年下半年绝对股价表现。LGE=LG 新能源解决方案，SDI=三星 SDI，CSIQ=阿特斯太阳能，MP Mats.=MP Materials，CRP=华润电力，XJGW=金风科技，CATL=宁德时代，GCL=协鑫

16、科技，ENN=新奥能源控股，GGP=广州鹏辉能源科技 新能源覆盖广度和清洁能源价值链的多样性强 海通国际全球新能源覆盖比例，38%为太阳能，9%为风能，9%为氢能相关，21%为锂/偏内涵价值，6%为稀土，3%为服务 北美和中国杠杆率高，体现清洁能源需求增长稳健以及政府政策支持 今年迄今挂名太阳能相关的公司表现较好，以及一些偏向于内涵价值的材料公司，表现较差的是一些挂名日本新能源和太阳能相关的公司 26 Oct 2023 5 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 8：海通国际全球新能源相对股价表现：海通国际全球新能源相对股价表现 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表为海通国

17、际全球新能源年初至今、2023 年上半年和 2023 年下半年相对于当地市场的股价表现。香港和中国上市的股票均与 MSCI 中国表现进行了比较。LGE=LG 新能源解决方案，SDI=三星 SDI，CSIQ=阿特斯太阳能，MP Mats.=MP Materials，CRP=华润电力，XJGW=金风科技，CATL=宁德时代，Amperex，GCL=协鑫科技，ENN=新奥能源控股，GGP=鹏辉能源 图图 9：海通国际全球新能源覆盖范围价格目标的潜在上涨幅度：海通国际全球新能源覆盖范围价格目标的潜在上涨幅度 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表为海通国际新能源潜在上涨至目标价，LGE=LG 能源解决方

18、案，SDI=三星 SDI，CSIQ=阿特斯太阳能，MP Mats.=MP Materials，China Res.Power=华润电力，XJGW=新疆金风科技，CATL=宁德时代，GCL=协鑫科技，ENN=新奥能源控股，GGP=鹏辉能源，Trina=天合光能，上涨目标价0%。图图 10：23 财年海通国际全球新能源覆盖的盈利增长市场一致预测变化财年海通国际全球新能源覆盖的盈利增长市场一致预测变化 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示了海通国际全球新能源 2023 财年至今的一致预期变化。LGE=LG 新能源，SDI=三星 SDI，CSIQ=阿特斯太阳能，MP Mats.=MP Materi

19、als，CRP=华润电力，XJGW=金风科技，CATL=宁德时代，GCL=协鑫科技，ENN=新奥能源控股，GGP=鹏辉能源。维斯塔斯、布鲁姆能源 2023 年上半年和 2023 年年初至今一致预期每股收益变化40%。与各自市场相比，与人工智能相关的太阳能公司表现优异 海通国际全球新能源覆盖的平均上涨幅度为 77%，前 5 大潜在上涨幅度最好的公司为品澳科技、迈 可 晟 太 阳 能 科 技、MP Materials、禾迈股份和鹏辉能源 今年迄今，海通国际全球新能源和传统能源覆盖的平均一致盈利下调幅度较大。23 财年最大的一致盈利上调幅度（约 14-40%）来自第一太阳能、迈可晟太阳能科技、阿特斯

20、太阳能、LG 新能源和宁德时代，而最大的盈利下调幅度（60%）来 自 雷 诺 瓦、MP Materials、维斯塔斯风力发电、普拉格能源和布鲁姆能源 26 Oct 2023 6 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 11：海通国际全球新能源覆盖估值水平：海通国际全球新能源覆盖估值水平 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示了海通国际全球新能源估值水平。LGE=LG 新能源，SDI=三星 SDI，CSIQ=阿特斯太阳能，MP Mats.=MP Materials，CRP=华润电力，XJGW=金风科技，CATL=宁德时代，GCL=协鑫科技，ENN=新奥能源控股，GGP=鹏辉

21、能源 图图 12：海通国际全球新能源覆盖的资产负债率：海通国际全球新能源覆盖的资产负债率 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示了海通国际全球新能源 2023 年净负债股权比率。LGE=LG 新能源，SDI=三星 SDI，CSIQ=阿特斯太阳能，MP Mats.=MP Materials，CRP=华润电力，XJGW=金风科技，CATL=宁德时代，GCL=协鑫科技，ENN=新奥能源控股，GGP=鹏辉能源 图图 13：海通国际全球新能源覆盖回报率：海通国际全球新能源覆盖回报率 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示了 2023 年海通国际全球新能源股本回报率。LGE=LG 新能源，SDI=三星

22、 SDI，CSIQ=阿特斯太阳能，MP Mats.=MP Materials，CRP=华润电力，XJGW=金风科技，CATL=宁德时代，JGC=日挥株式会社控股，GCL=协鑫科技，ENF=新奥能源控股，GGP=鹏辉能源。恩菲斯能源、阵列技术公司的 2023 年预期净资产收益率35%，普拉格能源资产收益率 60%。图图 15：部分商品表现：部分商品表现 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究，图表显示了部分商品的表现，以 2021 年 1 月 1 日=100 为基准 图图 16：全球、：全球、GEMS、亚洲能源股价表现对比、亚洲能源股价表现对比 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表了显示部分地区能源股票

23、的股价表现，以 2021 年 1 月 1 日=100 为基准 2023 年，亚洲股票的表现普遍优于西方股票 商品价格已从 2022 年初至中期的峰值水平企稳 亚洲能源公司相对于全球能源公司的表现已经企稳 26 Oct 2023 8 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 17：部分亚洲能源和全球能源股价表现：部分亚洲能源和全球能源股价表现 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表了显示部分地区能源股票的股价表现，以 2021 年 1 月 1 日=100 为基准 图图 18：全球、：全球、GEMS、亚洲能源估值水平对比、亚洲能源估值水平对比 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显

24、示了区域能源股票的市净率估值水平随时间变化的情况，以及亚洲能源相对于全球能源的市净率折价随时间变化的情况。2020 年 9 月和 10 月的折价 250%。图图 22：部分全球能源公司价值与股息率关系（：部分全球能源公司价值与股息率关系（2023 年预期）年预期）资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示了基于一致预测的 2023 年预期企业价值倍数和股息率。部分公司的股息率值未如图所示，巴西国家石油公司12%，印度瑞来斯实业8 倍。定价于 2023 年 9 月 6 日。全球能源第 2 季度和第 3 季度继续表现亮眼，尽管油价有所回落 随着时间的推移，能源公司的油价相关性有所下降，这在一定程度上

25、反映了对低碳投资和企业结构的关注度提高 全球能源公司平均一致预测估值水平约为企业价值倍数 4.7 倍（2023 预测），平均股息率水平约为 5.1%（2023 预测）中国石化 2023 预测企业价值倍数为 5.4 倍（高于亚洲能源板块平均水平），估值水平恢复到 2023 年第 1 季度之后的水平 26 Oct 2023 10 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 23：部分全球能源公司价值与自由现金流收益率关系（：部分全球能源公司价值与自由现金流收益率关系（2023 年预期）年预期）资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示了基于一致预测的 2023 年预期企业价值倍数和自

26、由现金流收益率。部分公司的自由现金流收益率值未如图所示，印度瑞来斯实业公司的企业价值倍数8 倍。定价于 2023 年 9 月 6 日。能源子板块表现及估值水平能源子板块表现及估值水平 图图 24：中国能源子板块表现：中国能源子板块表现 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究，图表显示中国能源子板块绝对股价表现，以 2021 年 1 月 1 日=100 为基准。图图 25：中国能源子板块估值水平：中国能源子板块估值水平 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究。图表显示中国能源子板块的市净率随时间变化 全球能源公司平均一致预测自由现金流收益率为 9.2%（2023 年预期）2023 年第 1 季度以来，中国能源板

27、块出现复苏，而中国煤炭板块的表现则继续优于大盘 中国燃气、能源、油服均处于 5年历史平均水平以下 中国新能源价值溢价自 2021 年末达到峰值后有所缩水 26 Oct 2023 11 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 能源转型生态系统能源转型生态系统 图图 26：地区新能源板块股价表现：地区新能源板块股价表现 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。新能源公司是指业务盈利能力的很大部分与新能源价值链（即可再生能源、太阳能、风能、生物燃料、氢能和新能源设备/服务）相关的公司。图表显示了新能源企业的绝对股价表现，以 2020 年 1 月 1 日为基准=100 图图 27：地区新能源估值

28、水平：地区新能源估值水平 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。新能源公司是指业务盈利能力的很大部分与新能源价值链（即可再生能源、太阳能、风能、生物燃料、氢能和新能源设备/服务）相关的公司。图表显示新能源板块的市净率随时间变化 图图 28：今年迄今亚洲能源与地区新能源表现对比：今年迄今亚洲能源与地区新能源表现对比 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表为新能源和亚洲能源公司的绝对股价表现，以 2020 年 1 月 1 日为基准=100 2023 年下半年全球新能源企业表现平淡 随着业绩带动股价下跌，全球新能源企业的估值水平开始趋同 今年迄今，亚洲传统能源相对于地区新能源表现持续亮眼 26 Oct 20

29、23 12 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 29：地区新能源与亚洲能源估值水平对比：地区新能源与亚洲能源估值水平对比 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示地区新能源板块和亚洲能源的市净率随时间变化 图图 30：亚洲能源与新能源回报率随时间变化：亚洲能源与新能源回报率随时间变化 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表展示地区新能源板块和亚洲能源的净资产收益率随时间变化。图图 31：今年以来中国新能源跑赢大部分传统亚洲能源企业：今年以来中国新能源跑赢大部分传统亚洲能源企业 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示亚洲能源企业、中国新能源（CH NE）、欧洲新能源（EU

30、 NE）和美国新能源（US NE）的绝对股价表现以及 2023 年至 2024 年平均一致预测盈利增长。报告中提及的所有亚洲能源公司缩写，SK Inno=鲜京创新，STO=桑托斯石油公司，FCFC=台塑化纤公司，CBC=中海石油化学，PCHEM=马来西亚国家石油化工，IOCL=印度石油，LGC=英国政府化学实验室，XLX=中国心连心化肥，FPC=台塑化塑，OINL=印度石油勘探公司，WDS=伍德塞德能源公司，TOP=泰国石油，BPCL=巴拉特石油公司 我们预计，亚洲能源将在公司之间产生差异，一些公司将提供低碳成长性和可持续现金回报给股东，而另一些公司则继续专注于传统能源，并对改变公司结构以实现

31、低碳成长性的重要性较少关注。我们认为亚洲能源公司正在寻求向能源转型的战略转变，以接近新能源公司的估值溢价进行结构性交易。平均来看，全球能源各地区回报与新能源相比持续优于大盘，相对中国新能源的回报高出约 1.5 倍 历史上传统能源回报率平均超过新能源回报率 26 Oct 2023 13 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 32：全球新能源板块相较亚洲能源企业往往以溢价估值水平交易：全球新能源板块相较亚洲能源企业往往以溢价估值水平交易 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示亚洲能源企业、中国新能源（CH NE）、欧洲新能源（EU NE）和美国新能源（US NE）2023

32、年市净率，以及 2023 财年平均一致预测盈利增长变化。报告中提及的所有亚洲能源公司缩写，SK Inno=鲜京创新，STO=桑托斯石油公司，FCFC=台塑化纤公司，CBC=中海石油化学，PCHEM=马来西亚国家石油化工，IOCL=印度石油，LGC=英国政府化学实验室，XLX=中国心连心化肥，FPC=台塑化塑，OINL=印度石油勘探公司，WDS=伍德塞德能源公司，TOP=泰国石油，BPCL=巴拉特石油公司 图图 33：部分新能源估算营业支出拆分：部分新能源估算营业支出拆分 资料来源：国际可再生能源机构，能源科学与工程杂志，彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示全球部分新能源项目平均营业支出估算。软营业支

33、出包括研发、折旧、利润、残值、法律与财务以及其他费用。图图 34：全球氧化钕供需展望：全球氧化钕供需展望 资料来源：中国稀土行业协会，工信部，彭博社，美国地质调查局，海通国际测算。图表为海通国际对全球氧化钕供需平衡的看法（以千吨为单位）我们普遍认为新能源价值相对于亚洲/全球能源公司将持续保持溢价 平均而言，较高的原材料成本往往比其他清洁能源项目更能影响太阳能项目 26 Oct 2023 14 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 35：海通国际预测在中期内氧化钕价格较高：海通国际预测在中期内氧化钕价格较高 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际预测。图表显示了海通国际对氧化钕价格和全

34、球钕镨供需盈余或赤字的预测 图图 36：海通国际全球锂供需展望：海通国际全球锂供需展望 资料来源：海通国际测算。图表显示了基于海通国际测算的以千吨/年为单位的锂供需展望 预计 2023 年锂供应量将达到 1 百万吨，我们预计今年供应过剩 4%26 Oct 2023 15 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 天然气生态系统天然气生态系统 图图 37：与天然气价值链相关的公司股价绝对表现：与天然气价值链相关的公司股价绝对表现 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究。图表显示了 2023 年 1 月 1 日至后续定价日期与天然气价值链相关的公司的绝对股价表现价格。定价于2023 年 9 月

35、 6 日。韩华海洋、国际石油开发帝石和三星重工的 2023 年 TD 表现50%。韩华海洋的 2023 年上半年表现50%。图图 38：中国天然气表观需求：中国天然气表观需求 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算 图图 39：中国天然气管线进口量：中国天然气管线进口量 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究 中国天然气需求持续处于历史高位，海通国际预测今年天然气需求的成长性至少为 10%26 Oct 2023 16 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 40：中国液化天然气进口量：中国液化天然气进口量 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究 图图 41：欧洲液化天然气进口量：欧洲液化天然气进口

36、量 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算 图图 42：韩国液化天然气进口量：韩国液化天然气进口量 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算 俄罗斯于 2023 年第三季度对中国液化天然气出口量较 2022 年下半年和 2023 年第二季度持续高位有所回落 欧洲液化天然气进口在 2023 年第三季度开始下降，因为储存水平接近 95%的容量 亚洲液化天然气需求持续下滑，既有环境因素，也有季节性因素 26 Oct 2023 17 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 43：日本液化天然气进口量：日本液化天然气进口量 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算 图图 44：美国液化天然气出口量：美国液化天然

37、气出口量 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算 由于政府继续推动从进口液化天然气中转移，日本液化天然气进口量继续处于 5 年低位，可再生能源的使用量 美国液化天然气出口量仍处于今年历史高位 26 Oct 2023 18 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 45：长期和现货液化天然气价格：长期和现货液化天然气价格 资料来源：彭博社、日本国家油气和金属公司、海通国际研究；图表中为液化天然气现货价格和理论油价挂钩的液化天然气合同价格，斜率在10-15%之间 图图 46：区域天然气价格：区域天然气价格 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表中为当前天然气现货价格，虚线为截至 2023

38、年 9 月 6 日的远期价格 图图 47：欧洲天然气储量：欧洲天然气储量 资料来源：欧盟统计局、海通国际研究；图表为欧洲天然气储量（太瓦时）天然气价格企稳，但恩必普和 TTF价格尚未达到俄乌冲突前价格 欧洲天然气储量于今年年初创下历史新高，并维持在该水平上下。26 Oct 2023 19 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 石油、炼油与石油服务生态系统石油、炼油与石油服务生态系统 图图 48：部分全球油服公司股价绝对表现：部分全球油服公司股价绝对表现 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表为部分全球油服公司 2023 年 1 月 1 日至下述日期股价绝对表现。股价截至 2023

39、 年 9 月 6 日 图图 49：全球石油需求展望：全球石油需求展望 资料来源：国际能源署、彭博社、海通国际测算 图图 50：油价走高与库存关系：油价走高与库存关系 资料来源：彭博社、美国能源信息署、海通国际研究 由于石油巨头支出增加，油田服务公司 2023 年下半年表现良好 我们预测 2023 年全球石油需求增长为 120 万桶/日，国际能源署预测为 220 万桶/日 我们预测 2023 年布伦特原油价格为 85 美元/桶，2024 年为 74 美元/桶，2025 年为 70 美元/桶 26 Oct 2023 20 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 51：美国原油库

40、存波动，因美国未回补已使用的战略库存：美国原油库存波动，因美国未回补已使用的战略库存 资料来源：彭博社、美国能源信息署、海通国际研究 图图 52：美国汽油库存仍处于历史低位：美国汽油库存仍处于历史低位 资料来源：彭博社、美国能源信息署、海通国际研究 26 Oct 2023 21 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 53：美国馏分油库存脱离历史低位：美国馏分油库存脱离历史低位 资料来源：彭博社、美国能源信息署、海通国际研究 图图 54：沙特、俄罗斯和美国液体燃料供应展望：沙特、俄罗斯和美国液体燃料供应展望 资料来源：美国能源信息署、海通国际测算；数据包含原油、天然气和其他

41、液体燃料 图图 55：欧佩克原油和液体燃料供应：欧佩克原油和液体燃料供应 资料来源：彭博社、美国能源信息署、海通国际研究 欧佩克+于 2023 年 6 月减产，沙特和俄罗斯于 9 月将减产期限延长至 2024 年 26 Oct 2023 22 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 56：美国石油和天然气钻井平台数量：美国石油和天然气钻井平台数量 资料来源：彭博社、美国能源信息署、海通国际研究 图图 57：经合组织原油和液体燃料库存：经合组织原油和液体燃料库存 资料来源：彭博社、美国能源信息署、海通国际研究 图图 58：全球油服利润率仍远低于历史水平：全球油服利润率仍远低于

42、历史水平 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际测算；图表为基于一致预测的全球石油上游资本支出和部分全球石油服务公司息税折摊前利润和净利润率。“全球石油”包含 15 家最大的综合国际石油公司，中国资本支出包括中国海洋石油、中国石化和中国石油 我们认为，市场并未充分反映2023 年周期峰值利润率，2023 年全球油服净利润率平均一致预测约 8%，远低于 13%的周期峰值 我们预测 2023 年全球石油资本支出同比增长约 3%，2024 年同比增长约 3%26 Oct 2023 23 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 59：全球油服公司股价相对油价表现：全球油服公司股价相对油价表现

43、资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表为全球油服股价表现相对于布伦特（现货）和 1 年滞后期表现 图图 60：全球油服及中海油服估值水平与油价对比：全球油服及中海油服估值水平与油价对比 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表为全球油服板块及中海油服市净率随时间及布伦特原油价格变化趋势 图图 61：全球油服企业净利率与估值水平对比：全球油服企业净利率与估值水平对比 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表为全球油服净利率和 23 预测企业价值倍数 基于市场对积压、更强的定价能力以及新技术/数字化开始对利润率产生积极影响的信心，全球油服已开始扭转自 2016/17 年左右以来相对于油价的不佳表现 全球油服

44、公司目前平均市净率为2.1 倍，历史（25 年）平均市净率为 2.5 倍。中海油服目前市净率为1.1 倍，历史平均市净率为 1.2 倍 26 Oct 2023 24 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 62：中国上游成本管理良好：中国上游成本管理良好 资料来源：彭博社、中国石化、海通国际研究 图图 63：中国海洋石油上游全包成本管理十分出色：中国海洋石油上游全包成本管理十分出色 资料来源：公司数据、彭博社、海通国际研究 图图 64：亚洲炼油利润率：亚洲炼油利润率 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表为基于区域需求拆分和原料成本的理论炼油利润率，我们理解每家炼油厂有各自的

45、利润率 与 2022 年和 2021 年相比，2023年上半年上游全包成本保持较低 我们预测 2023 年亚洲炼油利润率为 11.0 美元/桶（2022 年初至今为 15.2 美元/桶），2024 年为 7.0美元/桶，2025 年为 5.5 美元/桶 26 Oct 2023 25 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 65：欧洲炼油利润率：欧洲炼油利润率 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表为基于区域需求拆分和原料成本的理论炼油利润率，我们理解每家炼油厂有各自的利润率 图图 66：美国炼油利润率：美国炼油利润率 资料来源：彭博社、海通国际研究；图表为基于区域需求拆分和原

46、料成本的理论炼油利润率，我们理解每家炼油厂有各自的利润率 26 Oct 2023 26 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 67：炼油稼动率及利润率展望：炼油稼动率及利润率展望 资料来源：英国石油公司2021 年世界能源统计年鉴，睿咨得能源，海通国际测算 图图 68：俄罗斯石油相对于原油的贴水幅度：俄罗斯石油相对于原油的贴水幅度 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究 图图 69：中国稳步增加俄罗斯石油进口：中国稳步增加俄罗斯石油进口 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究 炼油稼动率下降表明炼油利润率上行空间有限，近期区域利润率的崩溃表明了这一点 布伦特-乌拉尔原油的价差回升，但对于

47、某些能够购买俄罗斯石油的炼油厂来说仍是一个机会 26 Oct 2023 27 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 化学品生态系统化学品生态系统 图图 70：尿素价格开始企稳：尿素价格开始企稳 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究 图图 71：全球尿素产能利用率：全球尿素产能利用率 资料来源：彭博社，GreenMarkets，海通国际测算 图图 72：欧洲今年尿素产量大幅下降：欧洲今年尿素产量大幅下降 资料来源：国际肥料协会，公司数据，海通国际测算 尿素价格自 2022 年 1 月高点后持续下行，但在 4 月下旬开始有所缓和，并在 5 月下旬开始企稳 我们更新了对全球尿素供需前景的分

48、析，结果显示全球尿素工厂产能利用率变化有限 2022 年，欧洲尿素产量同比下降了约 64%，原因是天然气成本高导致稼动率和或工厂关闭，这一趋势仍在继续，但随着俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的冲突旷日持久，在 2023 年略有缓和 天然气价格走低，欧洲尿素产量或小幅提升 26 Oct 2023 28 Table_header1 全球能源战略全球能源战略 图图 73：部分化学品价差：部分化学品价差 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际研究，图表显示了 PE=聚乙烯，PP=聚丙烯，PX=对二甲苯，PVC=聚氯乙烯的化学价差 2023 年至今化工品价差小幅回升 26 Oct 2023 29 Table_header3 全球

49、能源战略全球能源战略 部分全球能源公司的估值水平比较部分全球能源公司的估值水平比较 全球能源全球能源 股票代码股票代码 货币货币 海通国海通国际评级际评级 海通国际海通国际目标价目标价（LC）CMP LC 离目标价离目标价的上行空的上行空间（间（%）市值（十市值（十亿美元）亿美元）日交易价值日交易价值（百万美（百万美元）元）市盈率（倍）市盈率（倍）市净率（倍）市净率（倍）企业价值倍数企业价值倍数（倍）（倍）股息收益率（股息收益率（%）自由现金收益率（自由现金收益率（%）每股收益增长（每股收益增长（%）2023 年净年净资产收益率资产收益率的预测值的预测值 当前杠杆当前杠杆率率 2022 年年业

50、绩业绩（%）年初至年初至今业绩今业绩（%）2023 年年预测值预测值 2024 年年预测值预测值 2023 年年预测值预测值 2024 年年预测值预测值 2023 年年预测值预测值 2024 年年预测值预测值 2023 年年预测值预测值 2024 年年预测值预测值 2023 年预年预测值测值 2024 年预年预测值测值 2023 年预年预测值测值 2024 年预年预测值测值 英国石油公司 BP/LN 英镑 不适用 不适用 521.3 不适用 108.5 567 6.9 6.8 1.5 1.4 3.4 3.6 4.4 4.7 0.2 0.2 (38)2 23 31 35 11 雪佛龙 CVX U

51、S 美元 不适用 不适用 162.2 不适用 302.9 165 11.7 10.7 1.9 1.9 6.1 5.9 3.7 3.9 7.6 8.7 (28)10 16 6 56(4)埃克森美孚 CVX US 美元 不适用 不适用 107.2 不适用 429.0 271 11.5 11.7 2.1 2.0 6.1 6.3 3.4 3.6 7.9 8.1 (33)(2)18 8 80 3 荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司 SHELL NA 欧元 不适用 不适用 31.0 不适用 216.7 129 8.0 7.9 1.1 1.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 14.9 13.9 (21)1 15 23 3

52、9 18 道达尔 TTE FP 欧元 不适用 不适用 61.3 不适用 155.8 104 6.6 6.6 1.3 1.2 3.6 3.8 4.9 5.1 11.3 12.2 (28)(1)21 13 36 8 亚洲亚洲GEMS 巴西国家石油公司 PBR US 美元 不适用 不适用 14.1 不适用 88.8 383 4.0 4.6 0.8 0.8 2.7 2.8 15.9 11.3 43.3 28.9 (32)(11)31 59 52 79 沙特阿美 ARAMCO AB 沙特里亚尔 不适用 不适用 33.5 不适用 2161.3 102 17.2 16.2 5.2 5.1 8.2 7.8 4

53、.5 5.1 5.0 4.7 (24)6 31 (9)-1 18 中国石油 中国石油 港元 不适用 不适用 5.6 不适用 190.9 79 6.4 6.4 0.7 0.6 3.7 3.7 7.8 7.6 128.3 157.6 2 (0)11 16 13 70 中国石油 601857 CH 人民币 优于大盘 10.26 7.9 30 190.9 193 9.3 9.2 1.0 0.9 3.5 3.6 5.2 5.0 9.2 15.9 6 1 11 16 1 67 中国石化 中国石化 港元 不适用 不适用 4.1 不适用 92.1 50 6.0 5.7 0.6 0.5 5.2 4.8 11.0

54、 10.8 -7.8 10 6 10 29 18 16 中国石化 600028 CH 人民币 优于大盘 8.79 6.1 44 92.1 156 9.4 8.8 0.9 0.9 5.0 4.4 7.3 6.9 9.6 10.6 10 7 9 29 2 45 中国海洋石油 中国海洋石油 港元 优于大盘 14.44 13.4 8 84.9 84 4.6 4.4 0.9 0.8 2.2 2.1 9.2 9.6 19.3 23.7 (9)3 20 (13)32 48 印度瑞来斯实业 RELIANCE IN 印度卢比 优于大盘 2767.0 2298.3 20 186.7 107 22.5 20.6 1

55、.8 1.8 12.7 11.2 0.4 0.4 (0.6)1.3 13 9 8 18 6(1)印度石油天然气公司 ONGC IN 印度卢比 优于大盘 162.0 181.7 (11)27.4 33 4.7 4.9 0.8 0.7 3.9 3.6 8.7 7.3 9.7 13.3 11 (3)18 36 11 25 泰国国家石油公司 PTT TB 泰铢 不适用 不适用 32.3 不适用 24.8 24 9.5 9.0 0.8 0.8 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 16.4 18.2 (6)5 9 55 -13 3 泰国国家石油管理局勘探生产公司 PTTEP TB 泰铢 不适用 不适用 168

56、.5 不适用 18.0 111 9.4 10.1 1.3 1.2 3.2 3.2 5.0 4.7 7.7 4.6 (4)(7)15 2 48 2 国际石油开发帝石 1605 JP 日元 优于大盘 2700.0 1916.5 41 17.8 196 7.1 6.8 0.6 0.6 2.8 2.8 3.8 3.8 14.1 12.5 (11)5 9 26 39 57 伍德赛德 WDS AU 澳元 不适用 不适用 35.2 不适用 42.6 217 12.7 11.9 1.2 1.1 4.8 4.4 6.3 6.6 1.8 7.3 (51)7 9 2 56 9 桑托斯石油公司 STO AU 澳元 不

57、适用 不适用 7.7 不适用 15.8 53 10.4 9.8 1.0 1.0 4.7 4.6 3.9 3.9 4.4 2.4 (40)5 10 21 8 14 资料来源：彭博社，海通国际 I 测算，价格截至 2023 年 10 月 10 日。本表仅列出部分板块的股票，并非详尽列表。NC=海通国际未覆盖股票。所有估值均基于彭博社对未覆盖股票的一致预测。海通国际评级中 OP=优于大盘，NEU=中性。26 Oct 2023 30 Table_header3 全球能源战略全球能源战略 海通国际全球新能源公司的估值水平比较海通国际全球新能源公司的估值水平比较 海通国际全球海通国际全球能源能源 股票代码

58、股票代码 货币货币 海通国海通国际评级际评级 海通国际海通国际目标价目标价（LC）CMP LC 离目标价离目标价的上行空的上行空间（间（%）市值（十亿美市值（十亿美元）元）日交易价值（百日交易价值（百万美元）万美元）市盈率（倍）市盈率（倍）市净率市净率（倍）（倍）企业价值倍数企业价值倍数（倍）（倍）股息收益率股息收益率（%）自由现金收益自由现金收益率（率（%）每股收益增长每股收益增长（%）2023 年年净资产净资产收益率收益率的预测的预测值值 当前杠杆当前杠杆率率 年初至年初至今业绩今业绩（%）2023 年预年预测值测值 2024年预年预测值测值 2023年预年预测值测值 2024年预年预测值

59、测值 2023年预测年预测值值 2024 年年预测值预测值 2023年预年预测值测值 2024年预年预测值测值 2023年预年预测值测值 2024年预测年预测值值 2023年预年预测值测值 2024年预年预测值测值 雅保 ALB US 美元 优于大盘 240 159.8 50 18.8 291 6.1 7.2 1.7 1.5 5.2 5.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.1 21 (15)32 28 (25)阵列技术公司 ARRY US 美元 优于大盘 28 19.8 42 3.0 139 20.4 14.5 6.8 4.9 13.7 10.7 0.0 0.0 6.0 5.7 182 40 58

60、 153 4 巴拉德动力系统公司 BLDP US 美元 优于大盘 8 3.6 123 1.1 11 -1.1 1.2 -0.0 0.0 (18.0)(19.2)(22)9 (14)(78)(24)布鲁姆能源 BE US 美元 优于大盘 33 11.1 196 2.5 53 -36.4 7.1 0.0 51.7 15.2 -(9.7)2.6 (66)(213)(16)57 (33)Clearway Energy CWEN US 美元 优于大盘 43 20.8 107 4.1 59 21.7 12.3 1.2 1.3 11.4 10.6 7.4 7.9 23.2 23.6 (75)76 13 16

61、6 (35)恩相能源 ENPH US 美元 优于大盘 248 119.2 108 16.2 398 24.0 19.0 14.1 8.5 18.5 14.8 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.4 13 26 57 (36)(53)国际石油开发帝石 1605 JP 日元 优于大盘 2700 1916.5 41 17.8 196 7.1 6.8 0.6 0.6 2.8 2.8 3.8 3.8 14.1 12.5 (11)5 9 26 57 日挥株式会社 1963 JP 日元 优于大盘 2386 1817.0 31 3.2 21 13.0 12.3 1.1 1.0 3.4 3.2 2.2 2.4 (1.2

62、)(0.6)15 6 8 (74)19 Livent LTHM US 美元 优于大盘 37 17.0 117 3.1 39 8.1 6.9 1.8 1.6 5.5 4.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.3 56 17 26 4 (10)莱纳斯 LYC AU 澳元 优于大盘 12 6.4 88 3.8 20 23.3 12.2 2.5 2.0 15.5 8.0 0.0 0.3 (4.5)4.2 (14)92 12 (38)(0)MP Materials MP US 美元 优于大盘 56 16.8 234 3.0 49 56.7 20.7 2.3 2.0 25.2 10.2 0.0 -(5.7)1.

63、2 (79)174 5 (38)(22)Nextracker NXT US 美元 优于大盘 50 34.0 47 5.4 82 21.8 17.0 -105.2 17.0 13.1 0.0 0.0 11.8 12.6 63 29 28 4 22 普拉格能源 PLUG US 美元 优于大盘 15 6.6 127 4.0 119 -1.2 1.2 -0.0 0.0 (36.7)(25.2)12 (55)(18)(36)(44)雷诺瓦 9519 JP 日元 优于大盘 2375 1061.0 124 0.6 6 7.0 14.8 1.7 1.5 11.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 20.0 12.5 2

64、82 (53)25 242 (51)所乐太阳能科技 SEDG US 美元 优于大盘 300 124.0 142 7.0 188 13.5 11.6 2.7 2.2 9.4 7.5 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.8 94 17 20 (43)(56)维斯塔斯风力系统 VWS DC 丹麦克朗 优于大盘 300 138.1 117 19.7 15 2057.4 28.3 6.0 4.9 20.5 11.1 0.1 1.0 (0.1)0.3 (101)7167 1 (2)(31)资料来源：彭博社，海通国际 I 测算，价格截至 2023 年 10 月 10 日。本表仅列出部分板块的股票，并非详尽列表。NC

65、=海通国际未覆盖股票。所有估值均基于彭博社对未覆盖股票的一致预测。海通国际评级中 OP=优于大盘，NEU=中性。26 Oct 2023 31 Table_header3 全球能源战略全球能源战略 全球能源宏观趋势全球能源宏观趋势 周价格周价格 布伦特布伦特 西德州中级原西德州中级原油油 迪拜原油阿迪拜原油阿曼原油的平均曼原油的平均值值 大庆原油大庆原油 布伦特原油布伦特原油-西德州中级原西德州中级原油油 布伦特原油布伦特原油-迪拜原油迪拜原油 海通国际亚洲炼海通国际亚洲炼油毛利润油毛利润 汽油裂解汽油裂解 柴油裂解柴油裂解 喷气燃料裂解喷气燃料裂解 石脑油裂解石脑油裂解 燃料油裂解燃料油裂解

66、亨利枢纽亨利枢纽 NBP 日韩指标日韩指标 中国碳酸锂中国碳酸锂 氧化钕氧化钕 2023 年 10 月 6 日 84.6 82.8 86.3 84.9 (1.8)1.7 5.7 3.1 23.5 18.3 (11.8)(23.9)3.3 11.6 14.1 22831.4 73019.2 2023 年 9 月 29 日 95.3 90.8 92.9 92.8 (4.5)(2.4)12.5 2.0 32.0 29.0 (16.3)(23.8)2.9 12.9 14.6 22782.3 71252.4 2023 年 9 月 22 日 93.3 90.0 94.6 93.1 (3.2)1.3 11.

67、3 7.9 31.8 26.3 (11.8)(22.9)2.6 12.5 14.6 23635.0 71384.5 2023 年 9 月 15 日 93.9 90.8 96.0 94.4 (3.2)2.1 11.3 11.9 31.4 25.7 (13.5)(21.6)2.6 11.4 13.3 25085.6 72164.0 周环比变化（周环比变化（%）2023 年 10 月 6 日-11.3%-8.8%-7.2%-8.5%60.4%170.6%-54.3%-9.9%-15.1%-14.2%-7.9%-15.1%14.0%-10.1%-3.8%0.2%2.5%2023 年 9 月 29 日

68、2.2%0.8%-1.7%-0.3%-39.5%-281.7%10.9%-3.8%1.8%0.9%-3.1%1.6%11.1%2.8%0.2%-3.6%-0.2%2023 年 9 月 22 日-0.7%-0.8%-1.5%-1.3%-2.5%-37.9%0.2%-4.4%-0.2%-0.7%1.3%-2.7%-0.3%9.6%9.5%-5.8%-1.1%月度价格月度价格 2023 年 10 月 87.5 85.7 90.0 88.9 (1.8)2.6 7.0 2.8 28.1 24.4 (11.3)(23.5)3.1 12.0 14.2 22831.4 73019.2 2023 年 9 月 9

69、2.6 89.4 93.1 91.5 (3.2)0.5 10.6 7.9 28.7 25.4 (13.1)(22.2)2.7 11.4 13.9 25484.0 71641.8 2023 年 8 月 85.1 81.3 86.6 83.3 (3.8)1.5 13.6 13.5 30.8 28.7 (11.0)(16.3)2.6 11.1 12.4 32545.0 66757.2 2023 年 7 月 80.2 76.0 80.5 77.4 (4.1)(0.3)12.4 11.8 19.0 18.7 (14.6)(17.3)2.6 9.4 11.4 41410.1 62923.5 2023 年

70、6 月 75.0 70.3 74.7 71.6 (4.7)0.6 5.4 10.7 14.9 15.3 (13.7)(17.6)2.5 10.1 10.6 42915.2 68437.3 2023 年 5 月 75.7 71.6 75.1 71.8 (4.1)0.7 6.1 9.9 12.3 13.1 (8.6)(18.4)2.3 9.0 10.5 34906.7 67014.4 2023 年 4 月 83.4 79.5 83.8 81.0 (3.9)0.1 3.9 11.3 13.3 14.2 (7.1)(21.6)2.2 12.5 12.3 27601.1 70541.3 2023 年 3

71、 月 79.2 73.4 77.5 75.8 (5.8)0.8 12.0 14.3 21.0 20.3 (1.9)(22.8)2.4 13.3 13.6 44443.0 84563.2 2023 年 2 月 83.5 76.9 81.2 79.1 (6.7)1.8 11.9 11.3 20.3 20.9 (1.8)(28.3)2.4 15.9 16.9 63363.9 103697.4 2023 年 1 月 84.0 78.2 80.0 80.0 (5.8)3.4 16.6 11.2 29.7 30.2 (6.9)(30.4)3.4 19.3 24.3 72114.4 106537.1 202

72、2 年 12 月 81.3 76.5 76.8 79.3 (4.8)4.3 17.1 3.5 29.5 30.5 (8.1)(29.5)5.8 35.6 32.3 79524.9 99095.1 2022 年 11 月 90.9 84.4 86.3 91.0 (6.5)4.8 14.7 (0.9)30.3 28.5 (12.5)(35.7)6.4 33.6 28.4 81834.2 90668.0 2022 年 10 月 93.6 87.0 90.6 92.2 (6.6)1.7 14.5 (3.2)35.7 29.5 (15.8)(41.0)6.1 28.4 33.0 75453.8 9361

73、2.7 2022 年 9 月 90.6 83.8 90.6 87.5 (6.8)(0.3)5.8 0.9 34.6 29.0 (16.8)(34.8)7.8 39.6 47.0 71235.3 88613.2 2022 年 8 月 97.7 91.5 97.7 94.5 (6.3)1.1 13.6 6.3 38.8 34.1 (19.3)(31.2)8.8 52.6 53.2 70921.4 104561.4 当月同比（当月同比（%）2023 年 10 月-5.5%-4.2%-3.3%-2.9%44.5%418.9%-34.2%-64.7%-2.3%-4.2%13.8%6.0%16.5%4.8

74、%1.9%-10.4%1.9%2023 年 9 月 8.8%10.0%7.5%9.9%16.6%-66.9%-21.6%-41.2%-6.7%-11.5%-19.1%36.2%1.9%2.9%12.0%-21.7%7.3%2023 年 8 月 6.2%7.0%7.6%7.6%8.3%567.4%9.4%14.1%62.3%54.0%24.8%-6.0%0.3%18.9%8.7%-21.4%6.1%2023 年 7 月 6.9%8.2%7.8%8.2%12.3%-155.4%129.3%10.2%27.6%22.3%-6.2%-1.6%6.5%-7.5%7.8%-3.5%-8.1%2023 年

75、6 月-0.9%-1.9%-0.5%-0.4%-15.5%-12.7%-11.9%8.5%20.9%17.0%-59.3%-4.5%7.6%12.2%1.5%22.9%2.1%2023 年 5 月-9.2%-9.9%-10.4%-11.3%-5.3%355.1%56.1%-12.6%-7.5%-7.9%-22.1%-14.7%5.1%-27.7%-15.3%26.5%-5.0%2023 年 4 月 5.3%8.4%8.2%6.8%33.7%-82.8%-67.2%-20.9%-36.6%-30.1%-268.0%-5.3%-9.1%-6.1%-9.2%-37.9%-16.6%2023 年 3

76、月-5.2%-4.5%-4.6%-4.2%12.6%-51.9%0.7%26.7%3.4%-3.2%-5.7%-19.4%-1.2%-16.7%-19.4%-29.9%-18.5%2023 年 2 月-0.5%-1.7%1.5%-1.2%-14.5%-47.5%-28.0%0.5%-31.6%-30.6%73.6%-6.8%-28.8%-17.4%-30.7%-12.1%-2.7%2023 年 1 月 3.3%2.2%4.2%0.9%-20.9%-21.6%-3.2%222.6%0.6%-1.2%14.9%2.8%-40.7%-45.9%-24.7%-9.3%7.5%2022 年 12 月-1

77、0.5%-9.3%-11.0%-12.8%25.4%-10.2%16.7%-506.5%-2.8%6.9%35.8%-17.2%-10.3%6.0%14.0%-2.8%9.3%2022 年 11 月-2.9%-3.0%-4.8%-1.3%1.5%188.3%1.1%-73.0%-15.1%-3.3%20.7%-12.9%5.7%18.2%-14.0%8.5%-3.1%2022 年 10 月 3.3%3.9%0.0%5.3%3.0%649.4%152.0%-444.4%3.3%1.9%5.6%17.9%-21.6%-28.3%-29.8%5.9%5.6%2022 年 9 月-7.3%-8.4%-

78、7.3%-7.4%-8.2%-127.3%-57.8%-85.4%-10.9%-15.1%13.2%11.5%-11.6%-24.6%-11.7%0.4%-15.3%2022 年 8 月-7.0%-8.0%-8.2%-9.2%-9.0%-48.1%#REF！-34.3%14.1%19.3%-11.8%-14.5%22.2%58.2%35.2%0.4%-17.8%资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算。价格截至 2023 年 10 月 10 日。所有石油、石油产品裂解价以美元桶计，所有天然气价格以美元百万英热计。HH=亨利枢纽，NBP=NBP，JKM=日韩指标，是液化天然气进入日本、韩国、中国和台湾的现

79、货基准价格。中国碳酸锂和氧化钕以美元公吨计。26 Oct 2023 32 Table_header3 全球能源战略全球能源战略 全球能源宏观趋势（续）全球能源宏观趋势（续）季度价格季度价格 布伦特布伦特 西德州中级西德州中级原油原油 迪拜原油迪拜原油阿曼原油的阿曼原油的平均值平均值 大庆原油大庆原油 布伦特原油布伦特原油-西德州中西德州中级原油级原油 布伦特原油布伦特原油-迪拜原油迪拜原油 海通国际亚海通国际亚洲炼油毛利洲炼油毛利润润 汽油裂解汽油裂解 柴油裂解柴油裂解 喷气燃料裂喷气燃料裂解解 石脑油裂解石脑油裂解 燃料油裂解燃料油裂解 亨利枢纽亨利枢纽 NBP 日韩指标日韩指标 中国碳酸锂

80、中国碳酸锂 氧化钕氧化钕 2023 年第四季度至今 87.5 85.7 90.0 88.9 (1.8)2.6 7.0 2.8 28.1 24.4 (11.3)(23.5)3.1 12.0 14.2 22831.4 73019.2 2023 年第三季度.85.9 82.2 86.7 84.1 (3.7)0.8 10.7 11.2 26.3 24.4 (12.7)(18.5)2.7 10.6 12.6 33370.5 67030.0 2023 年第二季度 77.7 73.7 77.6 74.5 (4.1)(0.1)5.2 10.7 13.6 14.2 (9.7)(19.0)2.3 10.5 11.

81、1 35442.2 68632.5 2023 年第一季度 82.2 76.1 79.5 78.3 (6.2)(2.7)13.5 12.3 23.8 23.9 (3.6)(27.1)2.8 16.2 18.2 57878.4 96949.5 2022 年第四季度 88.6 82.6 84.5 87.4 (6.0)(4.2)15.4 (0.2)31.7 29.3 (12.2)(35.4)6.1 32.6 31.3 79286.0 94536.8 2022 年第三季度 98.0 91.7 98.3 95.5 (6.3)0.3 10.2 5.8 36.0 30.7 (17.9)(34.0)7.9 41

82、.8 46.7 70925.9 107235.5 2022 年第二季度 111.9 108.4 109.1 109.0 (3.5)(2.8)16.6 25.2 36.1 30.0 (12.8)(24.8)7.5 22.6 27.3 71605.5 137659.4 2022 年第一季度 97.6 94.7 96.8 96.8 (2.9)(0.8)10.4 12.1 13.7 10.7 1.4 (23.6)4.6 32.1 30.8 66140.1 157454.3 2021 年第四季度 79.6 77.1 77.8 76.4 (2.6)(1.9)6.6 9.1 8.5 8.0 4.4 (19.

83、1)4.9 32.8 34.9 32628.2 120597.7 2021 年第三季度 73.3 70.6 71.4 69.8 (2.7)(1.9)5.3 7.1 5.5 2.0 2.8 (17.0)4.3 16.8 17.7 17241.4 90943.7 2021 年第二季度 69.0 66.0 66.5 65.6 (3.0)(2.5)3.4 4.7 3.4 0.8 (0.7)(18.1)3.0 8.7 9.6 13713.6 79578.1 2021 年第一季度 61.2 58.0 59.5 59.1 (3.2)(1.6)2.6 1.9 3.6 1.3 1.7 (14.1)2.7 6.8

84、 8.9 11488.8 77775.0 季度比变化（季度比变化（%）2023 年第四季度至今 1.8%4.2%3.8%5.7%52.6%228.1%-34.3%-74.9%6.7%-0.1%11.5%26.8%18.1%12.6%12.7%-31.6%8.9%2023 年第三季度.10.5%11.6%11.7%12.9%8.5%936.8%104.9%4.3%93.9%71.6%-31.3%-2.8%14.5%1.8%13.6%-5.8%-2.3%2023 年第二季度-5.5%-3.1%-2.3%-4.8%34.2%96.5%-61.5%-12.7%-42.9%-40.4%-166.3%-2

85、9.8%-16.2%-35.3%-39.3%-38.8%-29.2%2023 年第一季度-7.2%-7.9%-5.9%-10.5%-2.3%34.6%11.5%-5250.7%-24.9%-18.5%70.3%-23.5%-54.6%-50.4%-41.8%-27.0%2.6%2022 年第四季度-9.5%-9.9%-14.1%-8.5%4.4%-1333.6%-4.2%-104.1%-12.0%-4.4%31.6%4.0%-22.8%-21.9%-32.9%11.8%-11.8%2022 年第三季度-12.5%-15.4%-9.9%-12.3%-78.9%112.0%-28.9%-76.8%

86、-0.3%2.1%-39.4%37.2%5.8%85.1%71.0%-0.9%-22.1%2022 年第二季度 14.7%14.5%12.7%12.5%-21.6%-266.0%59.6%107.3%163.2%182.0%-994.3%5.1%63.4%-29.8%-11.4%8.3%-12.6%2022 年第一季度 22.5%22.9%24.5%26.7%-12.5%59.0%57.6%32.8%61.3%32.5%-67.1%23.9%-5.7%-2.0%-11.7%102.7%30.6%2021 年第四季度 8.7%9.2%8.9%9.5%4.3%-1.2%24.5%28.9%54.7

87、%306.3%57.7%12.0%12.7%95.1%96.8%89.2%32.6%2021 年第三季度 6.2%6.9%7.4%6.4%10.5%26.9%55.9%50.7%59.5%146.8%471.5%-6.2%45.1%93.3%84.4%25.7%14.3%2021 年第二季度 12.8%13.8%11.6%11.0%5.7%-55.8%30.8%144.6%-5.1%-39.3%-142.7%28.8%9.1%28.2%7.6%19.4%2.3%2021 年第一季度 35.4%35.9%35.9%40.4%-25.8%-16.7%22.1%-1704.5%12.0%-31.8%

88、423.3%63.4%-1.4%21.5%20.9%71.6%38.2%资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算。价格截至 2023 年 10 月 10 日。所有石油、石油产品裂解价以美元桶计，所有天然气价格以美元百万英热计。HH=亨利枢纽，NBP=NBP，JKM=日韩指标，是液化天然气进入日本、韩国、中国和台湾的现货基准价格。中国碳酸锂和氧化钕以美元公吨计。26 Oct 2023 33 Table_header3 全球能源战略全球能源战略 全球能源宏观趋势（续）全球能源宏观趋势（续）年度价格年度价格 布伦特布伦特 西德州中西德州中级原油级原油 迪拜原油迪拜原油阿曼原阿曼原油的平均油的平均值值 大庆原油

89、大庆原油 布伦特原布伦特原油油-西德西德州中级原州中级原油油 布伦特原布伦特原油油-迪拜迪拜原油原油 海通国际海通国际亚洲炼油亚洲炼油毛利润毛利润 汽油裂解汽油裂解 柴油裂解柴油裂解 喷气燃料喷气燃料裂解裂解 石脑油裂石脑油裂解解 燃料油裂燃料油裂解解 亨利枢纽亨利枢纽 NBP 日韩指标日韩指标 中国碳酸中国碳酸锂锂 氧化钕氧化钕 2023 年年初至今 82.2 77.6 81.5 79.2 (4.5)0.6 10.2 11.1 21.4 20.9 (8.7)(21.6)2.6 12.4 13.9 41587.6 77139.1 2022 99.0 94.3 97.0 97.0 (4.7)(2

90、.0)13.5 10.7 29.3 25.2 (10.5)(29.9)6.5 32.4 34.1 72081.2 123457.4 2021 70.9 68.1 69.0 67.9 (2.9)(1.9)15.2 6.0 5.2 3.0 2.1 (17.2)3.7 16.5 17.9 18937.6 92539.8 2020 43.2 39.3 42.2 41.1 (3.9)(1.0)8.7 0.8 6.7 2.7 (0.2)(9.8)2.1 3.3 4.2 6378.3 45238.4 2019 64.2 57.0 63.2 61.3 (7.1)(1.0)2.1 3.3 13.2 11.2 (

91、5.2)(15.6)2.5 4.8 5.8 9920.9 44105.1 2018 71.7 64.9 69.3 68.1 (6.8)(2.4)5.1 5.4 13.3 11.3 (2.4)(15.9)3.1 7.9 7.8 17851.2 49988.8 2017 54.7 50.9 53.1 51.4 (3.9)(1.7)5.8 9.0 10.5 9.7 1.0 (12.1)3.0 5.8 6.0 21886.8 51258.6 2016 45.1 43.5 41.4 40.6 (1.7)(3.8)8.3 5.8 7.0 7.8 (0.3)(14.4)2.6 4.7 -22213.3 38

92、661.1 同比（同比（%）2023 年年初至今-17.1%-17.7%-16.0%-18.3%3.4%69.9%-24.4%3.8%-27.2%-17.0%16.6%-27.5%-60.3%-61.7%-59.2%-42.3%-37.5%2022 39.6%38.6%40.6%42.9%-64.2%-3.7%-11.2%77.4%463.3%747.7%-592.0%73.8%75.7%96.8%90.3%280.6%33.4%2021 64.2%73.0%63.5%65.4%25.9%-93.7%74.7%618.4%-21.7%10.0%979.4%75.4%74.8%398.7%324

93、.9%196.9%104.6%2020-32.7%-31.0%-33.2%-33.0%45.7%0.5%314.3%-74.3%-49.7%-76.0%95.3%-37.4%-15.7%-31.8%-27.5%-35.7%2.6%2019-10.5%-12.1%-8.8%-10.0%-4.9%58.4%-58.8%-40.0%-0.9%-0.4%-111.5%-1.8%-17.7%-38.5%-25.7%-44.4%-11.8%2018 31.0%27.6%30.5%32.6%-74.9%-45.5%-12.1%-39.5%26.6%16.1%-334.0%31.3%1.7%34.8%30.4

94、%-18.4%-2.5%2017 21.3%17.0%28.3%26.6%-133.3%55.9%-30.1%54.7%49.6%24.2%510.7%-15.8%18.1%23.6%-1.5%32.6%资料来源：彭博社，海通国际测算。价格截至 2023 年 10 月 10 日。所有石油、石油产品裂解价以美元桶计，所有天然气价格以美元百万英热计。HH=亨利枢纽，NBP=NBP，JKM=日韩指标，是液化天然气进入日本、韩国、中国和台湾的现货基准价格。中国碳酸锂和氧化钕以美元公吨计。34 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息

95、披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand n

96、ame for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securiti

97、es Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我，Scott Darling，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益

98、。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,Scott Darling,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be d

99、irectly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,wi

100、ll not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.我，Axel Leven，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知

101、他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,Axel Leven,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indir

102、ectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in o

103、r trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.我，Lena Shen，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3

104、个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,Lena Shen,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to t

105、he specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securi

106、ties in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates may engag

107、e in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not e

108、nsure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“海通”）在过去12个月内参与了0883.HK,1798.HK,1866.HK,002074.CH and 600938.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和

109、并购项目。Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 0883.HK,1798.HK,1866.HK,002074.CH and 600938.CH within the past 12 months.The investment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor,

110、sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects of 0883.HK,1798.HK,1866.HK,002074.CH and 600938.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in the new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-

111、brokerage firm.1798.HK,1866.HK 及 002074.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。1798.HK,1866.HK and 002074.CH are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.0857.HK,中国石化集团齐鲁石油化工公司,601857.CH,青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,万里扬集团有限公司,600438.CH,300919.CH,西山煤电（集团

112、）有限责任公司,西山煤电建筑工程集团有限公司,601225.CH,1866.HK,广东小鹏汽车科技有限公司,2208.HK,3800.HK,002074.CH 及 新疆太阳能科技开发公司目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。0857.HK,中国石化集团齐鲁石油化工公司,601857.CH,青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,万里扬集团有限公司,600438.CH,300919.CH,西山煤电（集团）有限责任公司,西山煤电建筑工程集团有限公司,601225.CH,1866.HK,广东小鹏汽车

113、科技有限公司,2208.HK,3800.HK,002074.CH and 新疆太阳能科技开发公司 are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.35 内蒙古潇龙冶金有限公司,新疆心连心能源化工有限公司,合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司 及 688599.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非证券业务服务。内蒙古潇龙冶金有限公司,

114、新疆心连心能源化工有限公司,合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司 and 688599.CH are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-securities services.海通预计将（或者有意向）在未来三个月内从3800.HK获得投资银行服务报酬。Haitong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in

115、the next three months from 3800.HK.海通在过去的12个月中从0857.HK,601857.CH,青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,万里扬集团有限公司,内蒙古潇龙冶金有限公司,601225.CH,新疆心连心能源化工有限公司,2208.HK,3800.HK,合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司 及 688599.CH获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than inv

116、estment banking from 0857.HK,601857.CH,青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,万里扬集团有限公司,内蒙古潇龙冶金有限公司,601225.CH,新疆心连心能源化工有限公司,2208.HK,3800.HK,合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司 and 688599.CH.评级定义评级定义（从（从2020年年7月月1日开始执行）日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在

117、任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级 优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念

118、股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In ad

119、dition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied up

120、on as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its

121、relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a

122、 hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for

123、all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 36 截至截至2023年年9月月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市优于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.3%1.1%9.6%投资银行客户*3.9%5.8%10.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股

124、票。此前的评级系统定义（直至此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年年6月月30日）：日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Rating

125、s Distribution,as of September 30,2023 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.3%1.1%9.6%IB clients*3.9%5.8%10.0%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperf

126、orm,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total r

127、eturn over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only

128、 of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:

129、Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通国际非评级研究：海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitat

130、ive,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A

131、股覆盖：股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券（600837.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzh

132、en.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the H

133、TI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际优质海通国际优质100 A股（股（Q100）指数：）指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-

134、quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.盟浪义利（盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：）数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利

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145、.If there is any difference between this disclaim and other agreements,this disclaimer shall be applied.重要免责声明：重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK

146、”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为印度交易所）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际

147、证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法

148、进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG

149、及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究上海品茶上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且

150、不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER For research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)and a licensed cor

151、poration to carry on Type 4 regulated activity(advising on securities)for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance(Cap.571)of Hong Kong,with the assistance of Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by

152、the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.For research reports on Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter

153、 alia,produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).HSIPL was acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies 38(“H

154、TISG”)on 22 December 2016.All the research reports are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”)and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.The information and opinions

155、 contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty,express or implied,is made by HTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report may be received,as to

156、 their accuracy,completeness or correctness.All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice.This research report is for information purpose only.Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be

157、 complete and this research report is not,and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as,an offer to buy or sell securities.The securities referred to in this research report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions.If an investment product is denominated in a currency o

158、ther than an investors home currency,a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Certain transactions,including those involving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You sho

159、uld also bear in mind that recommendations in this research report are not tailor-made for you.The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances,such as your financial situation and risk appetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,t

160、ax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers to evaluate whether the recommendations suits you before investment.Neither HTISG nor any of its directors,employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained

161、 in this research report.HTISG and our affiliates,officers,directors,and employees,excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document,will from time to time have long or short positions in,act as principal in,and buy or sell,the securities or derivatives,if any,referred to in this r

162、esearch report.Sales,traders,and other professionals of HTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.HTISG may make investment

163、 decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research report.HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions,ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this research report.Please refer to HTIs website for

164、further information on HTIs organizational and administrative arrangements set up for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.Non U.S.Analyst Disclosure:The HTI analyst(s)listed on the cover of this Research is(are)not registered or qualified as a research anal

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215、 for the recipients only and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the written consent of an authorized signatory of HTISG.Copyright:Haitong International Securities Group Limited 2019.All rights reserved.http:/ Analyst Certification:I,Scott Darling,certify that(i)the views expressed in thi

216、s research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and t

217、hat I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the

218、 research report is published.I,Axel Leven,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly rela

219、ted to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade an

220、y securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.I,Lena Shen,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this resea

221、rch and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I

222、 and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.Conflict of Interest Disclosures HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or

223、 serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completen

224、ess,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 0883.HK,1798.HK,1866.HK,002074.CH and 600938.CH within the past 12 months.The investment bank

225、ing projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects of 0883.HK,1798.HK,1866.HK,002074.CH and 600938.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in t

226、he new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.1798.HK,1866.HK and 002074.CH are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.0857.HK,中国石化集团齐鲁石油化工公司,601857.CH,青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,万里扬集团有限

227、公司,600438.CH,300919.CH,西山煤电（集团）有限责任公司,西山煤电建筑工程集团有限公司,601225.CH,1866.HK,广东小鹏汽车科技有限公司,2208.HK,3800.HK,002074.CH and 新疆太阳能科技开发公司 are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.内蒙古潇龙冶金有限公司,新疆心连心能源化工有

228、限公司,合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司 and 688599.CH are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-securities services.Haitong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from 3800.HK.Haitong has r

229、eceived compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 0857.HK,601857.CH,青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,万里扬集团有限公司,内蒙古潇龙冶金有限公司,601225.CH,新疆心连心能源化工有限公司,2208.HK,3800.HK,合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司 and 688599.CH.42 Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong Internati

230、onal uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete

231、information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stoc

232、k should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stoc

233、ks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the

234、 next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.Rating Distribution Haito

235、ng International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of September 30,2023 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.3%1.1%9.6%IB clients*3.9%5.8%10.0%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution corre

236、spond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(un

237、til 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchma

238、rk,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for ea

239、ch stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and o

240、ther metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shar

241、es that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by H

242、S differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.43 Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shan

243、ghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer:Please read these terms and conditions below car

244、efully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these terms before using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service.1.FIN-ESG Data is produced by SusallWave Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.(In short,SusallWave)s assessment based on legal publicly accessible information.SusallWave shall not be responsible for

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252、TANT DISCLAIMER For research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity(advisin

253、g on securities)for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance(Cap.571)of Hong Kong,with the assistance of Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.For research reports

254、 on Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research reports coveri

255、ng listed entities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).HSIPL was acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”)on 22 December 2016.All the research reports are gl

256、obally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”)and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or

257、arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty,express or implied,is made by HTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report may be received,as to their accuracy,completeness or correctness.All opinions

258、expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice.This research report is for information purpose only.Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this research report is not,and should not

259、be construed expressly or impliedly as,an offer to buy or sell securities.The securities referred to in this research report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions.If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investors home currency,a change in exchange

260、 rates may adversely affect the investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Certain transactions,including those involving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this resear

261、ch report are not tailor-made for you.The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances,such as your financial situation and risk appetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,tax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers t

262、o evaluate whether the recommendations suits you before investment.Neither HTISG nor any of its directors,employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.HTISG and our affiliates,officer

263、s,directors,and employees,excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document,will from time to time have long or short positions in,act as principal in,and buy or sell,the securities or derivatives,if any,referred to in this research report.Sales,traders,and other professionals of H

264、TISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

265、 or views expressed in this research report.HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions,ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this research report.Please refer to HTIs website for further information on HTIs organizational and administra

266、tive arrangements set up for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.Non U.S.Analyst Disclosure:The HTI analyst(s)listed on the cover of this Research is(are)not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are not subject to U.S.FINRA Rule 2241

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268、 any security discussed in HTIs research should contact the Haitong International salesperson in their own country or region.Notice to Hong Kong investors:The research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),which is a licensed corporation to carry on Type

269、 1 regulated 44 activity(dealing in securities)in Hong Kong.This research report does not constitute a solicitation or an offer of securities or an invitation to the public within the meaning of the SFO.This research report is only to be circulated to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO.Thi

270、s research report has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.You should not make investment decisions solely on the basis of the information contained in this research report.Recipients of this research report are to contact HTISCL salespersons in respect of any matters arising f

271、rom,or in connection with,the research report.Notice to U.S.investors:As described above,this research report was prepared by HTIRL,HSIPL or HTIJKK.Neither HTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK,nor any of the non U.S.HTISG affiliates is registered in the United States and,therefore,is not subject to U.S.rules regardin

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274、ed on the information provided in this research report should do so only through Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”),located at 340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New York,NY 10173,USA;telephone(212)351 6050.HTI USA is a broker-dealer registered in the U.S.with the U.S.Securities and Exc

275、hange Commission(the“SEC”)and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,Inc.(“FINRA”).HTI USA is not responsible for the preparation of this research report nor for the analysis contained therein.Under no circumstances should any U.S.recipient of this research report contact the analys

276、t directly or effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments directly through HSIPL,HTIRL or HTIJKK.The HSIPL,HTIRL or HTIJKK analyst(s)whose name appears in this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and,therefore,may not

277、be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Investing in any non-U.S.securities or related financial instruments(including ADRs)discussed in this research report may present certain r

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279、ose in effect within the U.S.The value of any investment or income from any securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report denominated in a currency other than U.S.dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value

280、of or income from such securities or related financial instruments.All inquiries by U.S.recipients should be directed to:Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor New York,NY 10173 Attn:Sales Desk at(212)351 6050 Peoples Republic of China(PRC):In the PRC,the research rep

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283、uired,whether statutorily or otherwise.Persons who come into possession of this research are required to observe these restrictions.Notice to Canadian Investors:Under no circumstances is this research report to be construed as an offer to sell securities or as a solicitation of an offer to buy secur

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285、n the“international dealer exemption”under National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements,Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations(“NI 31-103”)in Alberta,British Columbia,Ontario and Quebec.This research report is not,and under no circumstances should be construed as,a prospectus,an offer

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293、 of FIEL Art.17-11(1),and related articles).Notice to UK and European Union investors:This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited.This research is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments.Any investment or inves

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299、nvestors:The research report is distributed by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research reports covering liste

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