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1、REPORTFive Global Trends Driving Real Estate Portfolio OptimizationCBRE RESEARCHSEPTEMBER 20232023 Office Occupier Sentiment Survey:Global SummaryAdaptive Spaces2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment SurveyExecutive SummaryCBREs 2023 Global Occupier Sentime
2、nt Surveys feature insights from more than 400 corporate real estate executives across multi-national and domestic companies around the world.These insights uncover trends about the future of work and the changing role of the office in the United States,Europe and Asia-Pacific.Based on the collectiv
3、e data from these surveys,we have identified five trends that will guide global organizations as they optimize their portfolios:Office utilization patterns globally are below pre-pandemic levels but continuing to rise.Globally,the office remains a core element of corporate culture.Focus on portfolio
4、 optimization means more than downsizing.Occupiers trade quantity for better quality space.Occupiers seek more flexibility in lease terms and building services.01020304053CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment SurveyFigure 1:Average Weekly Office Utilization
5、 Rate(headcount/desk count)*Asia-Pacific:“Moderately Utilized”includes Up to 70%;“Highly Utilized”is 70%Source:CBRE Research,April 2023.22%11%7%54%73%48%24%15%45%U.S.EuropeAsia-Pacific*Slightly Utilized(60%)Office utilization patterns globally are below pre-pandemic levels but continuing to rise.Off
6、ice attendance worldwide varies significantly,yet no region is reporting that attendance is completely back to pre-pandemic levels.Asia-Pacific has the highest attendance of any region,with 45%of respondents reporting that office space is highly utilized,compared with only 15%and 24%respectively in
7、Europe and the U.S.In Europe,most organizations have adopted a balanced hybrid approach,thus translating to moderate utilization.The U.S.has a more even distribution between companies that prefer in-office and those that prefer remote work,resulting in more respondents reporting slightly utilized or
8、 highly utilized space.Even within the regions,office attendance varies by location.In Asia-Pacific,Greater China,Korea and Japan have the regions highest levels of office-based working.In the U.S.,Texas markets have consistently led in utilization,though New York City and Chicago have seen improved
9、 momentum in 2023.In Europe,U.K.utilization levels have been rising gradually since Spring 2023,although the European Occupier Survey suggests higher utilization in large western European markets,such as France and Germany.Several factors contribute to the varying degrees of office utilization in di
10、fferent locales.While the duration of pandemic-induced remote work is a consideration,pre-pandemic norms and behaviors,local culture,commute times,tenant industry and public transit all play a role in how strong or weak a return to office may be.4CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Globa
11、l Office Occupier Sentiment SurveyMost respondents globally report that office attendance has reached a steady state,making a return to pre-pandemic levels unlikely.However,utilization is expected to rise,with up to two-fifths of respondents across regions believing office attendance will increase o
12、ver the next year.This is especially true of larger firms that have lagged in returning to the office.In Asia-Pacific,where attendance is significantly ahead of the other two regions,the increase will be driven by western firms whose office attendance in the past has often been slowed by global poli
13、cies.Office attendance in Europe and the U.S.is slowly ticking up as organizations shift from a largely voluntary approach around office attendance to more formal requirements.Respondents to the latest Occupier Sentiment Survey report that 66%of companies in Europe now have guidance in place for off
14、ice attendance,compared with about 41%a year ago,and in the U.S.65%of companies have a requirement in place versus 31%one year ago.Most of those who expect a rise in utilization believe it will occur later this year,and many are taking stepsemployee consultation,communications programs and trainingt
15、o help facilitate an increase.60%38%2%56%41%3%55%36%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Steady state achievedUtilization expected to increaseUtilization expected to decreaseU.S.EuropeAsia-PacificFigure 2:Expectations About Office Utilization PatternsSource:CBRE Research,April 2023.Most of those who expect a ri
16、se in utilization believe it will occur later this year,and many are taking stepsemployee consultation,communications programs and trainingto help facilitate an increase.6CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment SurveyFigure 3:Company Goals for Steady-State Of
17、fice Utilization Source:CBRE Research,April 2023.Globally,the office remains a core element of corporate culture.Although office utilization goals differ,overall,there is a strong commitment to the office across regions.More than 90%of respondents in Asia-Pacific and Europe and nearly 80%in the U.S.
18、want employees in the office for at least half of the week.Few occupiers globally support mostly or fully remote work.European companies have maintained their desire for an equal mix of in-person and remote work,but that model has lost favor over the past year in the U.S.In the U.S.and Asia,the shar
19、e of respondents that support an“office-first”culture grew by eight percentage points and seven percentage points respectively from last year.U.S.respondents that promote a“virtual-first”culture also grew by seven percentage points to 22%,well above the other two regions.The shift away from an equal
20、 split of time spent in and out of the office is likely why U.S.respondents are more likely to report space is either highly or slightly utilized while most European occupiers report moderate utilization.45%33%22%40%50%11%69%23%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Mostly/fully in-officeEqual mix of office/re
21、moteFully/mostly remoteMostly/fully in-officeEqual mix of office/remoteFully/mostly remoteMostly/fully in-officeEqual mix of office/remoteFully/mostly remoteU.S.EuropeAsia-Pacific20232022U.S.EuropeAsia-Pacific7CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment Survey53%
22、26%21%60%16%24%16%32%44%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%ContractionNo ChangeExpansionContractionNo ChangeExpansionContractionNo ChangeExpansionU.S.EuropeAsia-PacificNext Three YearsLast Three YearsU.S.EuropeAsia-PacificSource:CBRE Research,April 2023.Figure 4:Real Estate Portfolio Status Over Last Three Year
23、s,Next Three YearsFocus on portfolio optimization means more than downsizing.Portfolio planning strategies vary across regions,but the general trend is toward smaller but higher-quality portfolios.Over the past three years,Europe and U.S.occupiers were split over whether their portfolios would shrin
24、k,expand or remain relatively unchanged.But over the next three years,most respondents in both regions anticipate further rightsizing,influenced by hybrid work and pressures to reduce costs.Those that believe their portfolios will shrink expect a 10%-30%reduction.In Asia-Pacific,where utilization is
25、 highest,only 25%of occupiers shed office space over the past few years,and even fewer(16%)expect to reduce their footprint over the next three years.Approximately 44%expect their corporate real estate footprints to grow,with most anticipating a 10%-30%expansion.Occupiers intend to reduce their spac
26、e by letting leases expire,subleasing excess space and consolidating into fewer locations.Subleasing excess space is a key strategy for more than 60%of respondents in the U.S.and Europe,compared with 41%in Asia-Pacific.As a result,historically high levels of sublease space exist in the U.S.and Europ
27、e,as well as Australia,Singapore and Hong Kong.Occupiers intend to reduce their space by letting leases expire,subleasing excess space and consolidating into fewer locations.9CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment Survey0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Bicycle/s
28、cooter storageCar parking facilitiesPublic transportation accessElectric vehicle charging stationSustainable building features and operationsOutdoor amenities/terraceIndoor air quality/MERV-13 rated equipmentFitness facilitiesTouchless technologies(doors,elevators,etc.)Connected technologies/buildin
29、g appsFlexible office space optionsBuilding amenity spaceShared building meeting spaceDaycareConcierge servicesAccess to retail amenities/shopping centersOnsite caf/food&beverageCommutingSustainabilityWellnessBuilding ServicesConvenienceU.S.EuropeAsia-PacificOccupiers trade quantity for better quali
30、ty space.While renewing in place and negotiating better terms remains a favored strategy around the world,many occupiers are also motivated to trade up to better-located office buildings with more amenities,even while they lease less space.The planned moves to better-quality office space reflects th
31、e greater value many workers place on their work environment than they did before the pandemic.Prime office rent growth remains positive,although slowing,in many global markets because of this flight to quality.Decentralized or suburban office locations remain less popular strategies.Global responde
32、nts agree that access to public transportation is among the most sought-after office amenities.Europe placed the strongest importance on public transport(80%of respondents in Europe compared with a global average of 66%).Other features that ease the commute burden are popular,including car parking f
33、acilities and bike storage.Onsite food and beverage,shared meeting space and fitness facilities also remain favored across geographies.Preferences for sustainable building features,especially among large occupiers that have pledged net-zero emissions goals,have grown in importance.Europe also had th
34、e highest share of respondents that emphasized sustainability features,reflecting increased ESG regulation and higher energy prices.In summary,locations and buildings that offer superior accessibility,sustainability and amenities are increasingly likely to appeal to occupiers and command a value pre
35、mium.Source:CBRE Research,April 2023.Figure 5:Most Desirable Building Amenities for Occupiers ConvenienceBuilding ServicesWellnessSustainabilityCommutingLocations and buildings that offer superior accessibility,sustainability and amenities are increasingly likely to appeal to occupiers and command a
36、 value premium.11CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment Survey*Asia-Pacific question asks three-year plans,not two.Source:CBRE Research,April 2023.Figure 6:Employee-to-Desk RatioHybrid work and the resulting space planning inefficiencies have increased organ
37、izations desire for employee desk-sharing.Today,56%of occupiers in the U.S.and Asia-Pacific have a 1.0 or less employee-to-desk ratio,while most European respondents indicate a ratio of 1.01 to 2.Over the next two years,only 25%of U.S.and 30%of Asia-Pacific respondents expect to keep their ratio bel
38、ow 1.0%.Most respondents globally aspire to a desk-sharing ratio between 1.01 and 2.Although occupiers had a similar target when asked the same questions two years ago,more may be taking action now due to accelerated hybrid work trends.Effective communication with staff and change management are ess
39、ential to realize transformation in the workplace.25%52%23%7%68%25%30%63%7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1.0 or less1.01-2.02.01 or more1.0 or less1.01-2.02.01 or more1.0 or less1.01-2.02.01 or moreU.S.EuropeAsia-PacificIn Two YearsTodayU.S.EuropeAsia-Pacific*56%of occupiers in the U.S.and Asia-Pacific
40、have a 1.0 or less employee-to-desk ratio today30%of occupiers in the U.S.and Asia-Pacific expect to keep their ratio below 1.0 over the next two years12CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment SurveyOccupiers seek more flexibility in lease terms and building
41、services.Traditional lease structures will likely adapt to new working methodsoffice occupiers dont utilize real estate in the same way that they did pre-pandemic.Occupiers desire more flexibility through shorter lease terms and offerings such as space-as-a-service or shared-space options.More than
42、half of European and U.S.respondents seek shorter lease terms for new or renewed space,compared with 44%in Asia-Pacific.Lease terms vary across regions;in 2023,the average lease is about seven years in the U.S.,5-6 years in Europe,and 3-5 years in Asia-Pacific.Occupiers also strongly desire flexible
43、 expansion and contraction options.Occupiers are exploring non-traditional arrangements that support agility.They prefer landlords that offer terms including bundling shared building services and amenities into the lease agreement,structuring leases to manage costs based on space utilization and lea
44、sing fully built-out spec suites.55%61%61%74%44%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Seeking shorter lease terms for new or renewed spaceSeeking more flexible expansion and contraction options for new or renewed spaceU.S.EuropeAsia-PacificFigure 7:Occupiers Seek Flexible Lease TermsSource:CBRE Research,Apri
45、l 2023.13CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Spaces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment SurveyOther non-traditional arrangements that support agility include bundling shared building services and amenities into the lease agreement and executing a lease in a primary building while gaining access to
46、 shared space in other buildings in the landlords portfolio.Other less-common and difficult-to-execute features include structuring leases to manage costs based on the utilization of space and structuring the lease to respond to a companys performance across a business cycle.U.S.EuropeAsia-PacificFe
47、asible&Highly DesiredBundling access to shared building services,amenities and/or flex space into lease agreement51%42%47%Execute lease in primary building and gain access to shared space in other buildings within landlord portfolio29%34%40%Fully built-out spec suites/turn-key space34%23%Green-lease
48、 clauses20%42%Feasible&Less-DesiredExecute multiple traditional leases with the same landlord across portfolio to gain bargaining power13%13%27%Landlord offering more creative parking agreements(i.e.by the car vs.by the employee)27%18%11%Shared space arrangement with another tenant under traditional
49、 lease structure(i.e.two lessees/same space)13%11%6%Hard to Execute but DesiredStructure lease to manage costs based on utilization of space39%40%48%Structure lease to respond to risk/benefit of companys performance in a business cycle26%27%31%Figure 8:Potential Changes to Lease Terms to Support Fut
50、ure Working StylesSource:CBRE Research,April 2023.51%of occupiers in the U.S.desire leases that bundle access to shared building services,amenities and/or flex space 48%of occupiers in Asia-Pacific desire leases that manage costs based on utilization of space14CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Adaptive Sp
51、aces2023 Global Office Occupier Sentiment SurveyAs businesses work through the remainder of 2023 and plan for 2024,the way the office supports the future of work will continue to be a central conversation.The next 12 months will bring an increase in office attendance,especially in markets that have
52、been lagging.Moving toward steady-state office utilization and a clearer economic picture will cause decision-makers globally to act on decisive strategies.Many occupiers are likely to relocate into better-quality space with less square footage,which will continue to advantage the prime office marke
53、t.Tenants already in desirable buildings will use their leverage to renegotiate more favorable business terms as markets adjust.Portfolio optimization is multifaceted and shifts in occupier portfolio strategies will influence the global office market for years to come.Copyright 2023 All rights reser
54、ved.This report has been prepared in good faith,based on CBREs current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market.Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation,they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies,m
55、any of which are beyond CBREs control.In addition,many of CBREs views are opinion and/or projections based on CBREs subjective analyses of current market circumstances.Other firms may have different opinions,projections and analyses,and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBREs current
56、views to later be incorrect.CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions,projections,analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBREs securities or of the performance of any other companys
57、 securities.You should not purchase or sell securitiesof CBRE or any other companybased on the views herein.CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein,and by viewing this report,you waive all claims against CBRE as well as against CBREs affiliates,offic
58、ers,directors,employees,agents,advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy,completeness,adequacy or your use of the information herein.Julie WhelanSenior Vice PresidentGlobal Head of Occupier Thought Leadership&Research C Richard HolbertonSenior DirectorEMEA RAda ChoiHead of Occupier ResearchHead of Data,APACContactsJessica MorinDirector,U.S.Office ResearchOccupier R Charlie DonleySenior Research AnalystU.S.Office R