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1、IUMIs 2023 analysis of the global marine insurance market 1 Introduction 2 Highlights 4 In context 14 Environmental,social,governance(ESG)matters 16 Marine insurance 18 Global marine hull insurance 23 Global marine cargo insurance 28 Global offshore energy insurance 32 Major loss database 38 Notes 4
2、0 Facts&Figures CommitteeContentsIUMI Stats 20231We are pleased to present our Stats Report for 2023.Overall,marine insurance results do appear to indicate positive growth which is welcomed after a prolonged period of negative returns.Inflation has fallen slightly which is also positive but interest
3、 rates remain high and consumer confidence is slowly recovering post pandemic.However,we shouldnt lose sight of future challenges that are likely to inject a degree of uncertainty into all lines of business.Asset prices continue to rise and inflationary pressure will only add to the value of claims.
4、The oil price is fluctuating and global trade forecasts vary.Trade routes are changing,not least as a result of the war in Ukraine which,itself,is changing the political landscape.New cargoes such as lithium-ion batteries are creating new risks that must be fully understood and mitigated,as are new
5、propulsion technologies resulting from our combined environmental protection ambitions.Added to this,climate change and new weather events are also making themselves known to insurers.We are increasingly managing new types of risk such as cyber and having to deal with the accumulation of risk as car
6、go of increasing value is being stored in single port facilities or is being carried on vessels that continue to grow in capacity.But against this uncertain landscape,we have seen a much-welcomed improvement for marine insurers stemming from changes to frame conditions and skilled underwriting which
7、 is demonstrated in this report.This report presents data on the global marine insurance market set in the context of world economic performance,trade and the shipping industry.We also offer commentary and opinion based on the data we have collected.IUMI represents 43 national and regional marine ma
8、rket insurance and reinsurance associations.Our Facts&Figures Committee compiles and analyses data submitted by national insurance associations and cooperates with other data providers.Our thanks go to those IUMI member associations for their continued support and to the other data providers,who are
9、 identified at the end of this report,for supporting IUMI with extensive and up to date information on the relevant trends that impact the marine industry.Special thanks are offered to the Nordic Association of Marine Insurers(Cefor)for annually compiling global marine insurance data on behalf of IU
10、MI and supporting IUMI with up-to-date hull trend analyses from the Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics database(NoMIS).Jun Lin,Chair IUMI Facts&Figures CommitteeLars Lange IUMI Secretary GeneralIntroductionIUMI Stats 20232HighlightsGlobal inflation,peaking at more than 10%,was one of the major facto
11、rs impacting the global economy in 2022.Central banks continued to hike interest rates making borrowing more expensive.The strong US dollar helped performance for insurers receiving premiums in that currency but was not helpful for certain Asian countries whose own currency had weakened when compare
12、d with the USD.The recent slowdown in the growth of the world fleet had now stabilised but the fleet continued to age reaching an average of 22.4 years.For the first time,Chinese ownership had just overtaken Greek ownership.The“short”order-book amounted to around 10%of the current fleet and asset pr
13、ices continued to rise albeit with a significant correction in the containership sector.A welcome recovery in global trade(volumes and value)was underway despite economic headwinds including inflation.Global seaborne trade had also grown in 2022.Trade patterns were changing partially as a result of
14、the Ukraine war.IUMI Stats 20233Ocean hull premiums were reported at USD8.4 billion,up by 5.7%on the previous year.More activity,more vessels,rising values and reduced market capacity were responsible.Claims continued to be low resulting in positive loss ratios for nearly all regions.Global marine i
15、nsurance premiums totalled USD35.8 billion an 8.3%uplift on 2021.The post-pandemic rebound in trade,increased asset values,reduced market capacity and an adjustment in premiums were all likely to have exerted an influence.European markets continued to enjoy growth whilst some Asian markets had slowe
16、d due to a range of economic factors.Premiums for cargo insurance reached USD20.5 billion representing an 8.3%uptick on last year and continuing the trend for market development in this sector.This was on the back of a post-pandemic rebound in global trade.Loss ratios had returned to more normal lev
17、els and for 2022,had started at their lowest point since 2015.The offshore energy sector continued its three-year run of premium base growth reporting USD4.1 billion for 2022,an increase of 7.3%.The uptick in oil prices was largely responsible,translating into increased offshore activity and a rise
18、in average day rates.Losses had remained relatively low and recent years loss ratios were currently positive but take a longer time to develop than for cargo or hull.IUMI Stats 20234Global inflation,a legacy of the pandemic and a consequence of the war in Ukraine,is currently one of the major issues
19、 facing the macro-economy.Peaking at over 10%in some areas,inflation now appears to be falling in most regions.Consumer price inflation is also dropping.Whilst inflationary pressures are having less of an impact on goods,the sale of services continue to be affected and so it is anticipated that infl
20、ation will remain an issue for some time to come.Central banks have employed tools such as interest rate increases to curb inflation and recently the speed of rising interest rates has slowed.Even so,the cost of capital remains relatively high,particularly when compared with the last few years.In co
21、ntextPeaking at over 10%in some areas,inflation now appears to be falling in most regions.10%Source:S&P Global Market Intelligence87654321012Chart 1:Consumer price inflation in advanced countries Percent change2005200620072008200920000022202320242025 Euroz
22、one US Japan United Kingdom%Source:S&P Global Market Intelligence87654321012Chart 2:Policy interest rate Percent change2006200720082009200000222023202420252026 Eurozone US Japan United Kingdom%IUMI Stats 20235Historically,there has been a casual link betwe
23、en high investment returns and poor underwriting results and so there is concern that the current high interest rate environment has a potential to mask underwriting achievements.To maintain the current market results,underwriting standards would have to be maintained without permitting high interes
24、t rates to skew poor performance.Similarly,the strong US dollar run has helped results for insurance companies domiciled outside of the USA.Those companies will receive the majority of their premiums in US dollars but pay overhead in local currencies.If the US dollar weakens,those companies might fi
25、nd their under-writing results negatively impacted.Source:S&P Global Market Intelligence87654321012Chart 3:Ten-year government bond yields Advanced countries,percent change2000200220042006200820002220242026 Germany US Japan United Kingdom%Source:S&P Global Market Intelligence1.
26、41.31.21.11.00.9Chart 4:US dollars real trade-weighted exchange rate Index,2012=1.002005200252030IndexIUMI Stats 20236Global trade This year has seen a welcome recovery in global seaborne trade despite continued buffeting from a number of economic headwinds,including infla-tion
27、.Trade patterns continue to develop with the war forcing crude oil to travel on longer than normal sea routes.With no end in sight for the war,it is likely this will not change anytime soon.This year has seen a welcome recovery in global seaborne trade.+3.3%Source:Clarksons Research1050510Chart 5:Mo
28、nthly seaborne trade growth PercentAugust 2019February2020August 2020February2021August 2021February2022August 2022February2023%Y-o-Y%Y-o-Y,3mma%Jan to May 2023:+3.3%Y-o-Y1.86543210.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6Chart 6:Global seaborne trade bn tonnestrade per capita bn tonnes 61994200
29、020022004200620082000222024(f)2023(f)Dry Bulk Oil Containers Gas Others Trade per Capita(LHS)Source:Clarksons ResearchIUMI Stats 20237Year-on-year growth for the ocean carriage of cars has jumped by a massive 23%whereas the container trades appear to have shrunk by almost 4%.Th
30、is is largely due to high inflationary pressures affecting consumer confidence.A 10.5%increase in coal trades is concerning in terms of global ESG ambitions.Chinese related trade accounts for around 50%of global seaborne activity and there are some reports of that economy slowing.Although the headli
31、ne numbers are weaker than they have been,depreciation of the Chinese currency is likely to be a significant factor.Total container capacity calling at Chinese ports shows no signs of slowing;and the China-USA trade,whilst down from the Covid peak,remains strong.Similarly,exports of electric vehicle
32、s from China are at record numbers but probably not fully counted.With freight rates for car carriers at sky-high levels,many vehicles are now being moved by container which might explain observations of a reduction of total car carrier capacity calling at China recently,despite rising car exports.O
33、cean carriage of cars has jumped by a massive 23%.Container trades appear to have shrunk by almost 4%.Chinese related trade accounts for around 50%of global seaborne activity.+23%3.7%50%Source:Clarksons ResearchCars(No.)CoalLPGCrudeIron OreGrainChemicalsTotalProductsLNGMinor BulkContainers23.310.59.
34、96.15.94.43.53.03.00.31.13.7Chart 7:YTD trade volumes,year-on-year growth 202350510152025%IUMI Stats 20238World FleetThe slowdown in global fleet growth has stabilised and is reported to be at 2.1%(gross tonnage)currently.New deliveries are down but so is scrap-ping activity.2,0001,8001,6001,4001,20
35、01,0008006004002000Chart 8:Development of the global fleet Million GTm GT%02000200042005200620072008200920000022 August 2023 Fleet,End Year(LHS)%Growth(RHS)Source:Clarksons Research02002040Chart 9:Deliveries and scrapping o
36、f global fleet Million GTm GT2000200042005200620072008200920000022 August 2023 Deliveries DemolitionsSource:Clarksons ResearchGlobal fleet growth has stabilised at 2.1%gross tonnage.+2.1%IUMI Stats 20239Fleet ownership continues to develop with
37、many Japanese owned vessels making way for the growth of the Chinese owned fleet as sale and lease-back arrangements are put in place.In August of this year and for the first time the Chinese fleet was reported to just overtake the Greek fleet in terms of gross tonnage.The Chinese fleet was reported
38、 to just overtake the Greek fleet in terms of gross tonnage.17%1,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000Chart 10:Long term regional development Million GTm GT%6420002000420052006200720082009200000222023Source:Clarksons Research Europe America
39、s China%Japanese owned%Chinese ownedSource:Clarksons ResearchChart 11:Regional ownership Percent,August 2023 Other Europe 20%China P.R.17%Greece 17%Japan 12%Other Asia/Pacific 10%Others 9%United States 4%South Korea 4%Germany 4%Other Americas 3%IUMI Stats 202310Although freight rates have slowed sin
40、ce 2022,they remain above the 10-year average.Asset prices for new builds continue to rise,as do second hand prices,but the massive jump in containership prices seen last year has now reversed.The global order-book remains“short”(but still healthy)at around 10%of the fleet,this is compared with a 50
41、%order-book in 2008.By contracted value,the order-book was estimated to be USD348.5 billion in August 2023.It should be noted that the order-book is never certain as delays,cancellations and contract renegotiations are all future influencers.The adoption of new fuels is beginning to impact the order
42、-book with new vessel types starting to make an appearance.This trend will continue,however high interest rates and cost of capital will influence the composition and capacity of the order-book going forward.Source:Clarksons Research50,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000Chart 12:Clarksea Index USD/day20032
43、00420052006200720082009200000222023Index10 year averageBy contracted value,the order-book was estimated to be USD348.5 billion in August 2023.348bnIUMI Stats 202311Source:Clarksons ResearchSource:Clarksons ResearchChart 13:Share of order-book Number of ves
44、selsChart 14:Share of order-book Gross tonnage Tankers Bulk carriers Container/MPP Gas RoRo/PCC Other Cargo Cruise/Ferry Tugs/Dredgers Offshore/Other Tankers Bulk carriers Container/MPP Gas RoRo/PCC Other Cargo Cruise/Ferry Tugs/Dredgers Offshore/Other70090807060504030201060504
45、0302010000Chart 15:Vessels on order By average sizeChart 16:Value of order-book By vessel typeChart 17:Value of order-book By country/region of build000s CGTUSD billionUSD billionTankersTankersP.R.ChinaBulk carriersBulk carriersSouth KoreaContainer/MPPContainer/MPPJapanGasGasTaiwanRoRo/PCCRoRo/PCCOt
46、her AsiaOther CargoOther CargoEuropeCruise/FerryCruise/FerryBrazilTugs/DredgersTugs/DredgersUSAOffshore/OtherOffshore/OtherOthersSource:Clarksons ResearchSource:Clarksons ResearchSource:Clarksons ResearchIUMI Stats 202312Of concern is the continuing increase in the age of the world fleet which,in Au
47、gust 2023,stood at 22.43 years.With the possible exception of gas carriers,all vessel types are getting older.This has the potential to impact the future claims environment.Source:S&P Global Market Intelligence2520151050Chart 18:Average age by ship type Years Tanker Bulk carrier Container/MPP Gas Ot
48、hers TotalYears2003200420052006200720082009200000222023Average age of world fleet in years.22.43IUMI Stats 202313Offshore windIt should be noted that the global offshore wind market continues to grow in importance.The upward trend is positive following a s
49、light slowdown during Covid.Forecasts for capacity,investment and contracting all remain strong.3007060504030201005000Chart 19:Offshore wind capacity forecast Chart 20:Offshore wind investment forecast GWUSD bn200000222023f2024f200142
50、000224f2025f2026f2027f2028f2029f2030f Number of offshore farms(RHS)Capacity(LHS)Estimated CAPEX Projected CAPEX Source:Clarksons ResearchSource:Clarksons ResearchNumber of farms800700600500400300200400200Chart 21:“Dedicated”wind vessel contracti
51、ng forecast Number of orders20020202120222023f2024f2025f2026f2027f2028f2029f CTV C/SOV WTIVSource:Clarksons Research34457426473231726IUMI Stats 202314In 2021 IUMIs Facts&Figures Committee began tracking three ESG issues related to the
52、 UNs sustainable development goals illegal,unreported,unregulated(IUU)fishing activities;ship recycling;and greenhouse gas emissions.The most significant development has been IMOs strengthening of its GHG reduction ambitions.The new strategy calls for shipping to achieve net-zero GHG emissions aroun
53、d 2050 with at least a 20%reduction by 2030 and at least a 70%reduction by 2040(from a 2008 baseline).This is welcomed and fully supported by IUMI.Insurers will play a pivotal role as new tech-nologies will give rise to new risks that must be understood and insured.Work on creating a safety roadmap
54、is already underway at IMO and elsewhere and will identify the challenges and discuss potential solutions.IUMI co-sponsored this IMO initiative which was spearheaded by the International Association of Classification Societies(IACS)and will be involved in its continuing development.Guidelines for th
55、e safe use of ammonia and hydrogen as propulsion technologies have already been published and most class societies have issued a range of relevant notations.However,it will be important for holistic regulations to be in place which must also put a heavy emphasis on crew safety.Progress so far is enc
56、ouraging but there is still a long way to go.Environmental,Social,Governance(ESG)mattersThe new strategy calls for shipping to achieve net-zero GHG emissions around 20502050900850800750700650600550500450Source:Clarksons ResearchChart 22:Global shipping CO2 emissions Tonnes CO2200820092010
57、2000020202120222023f2024f2008 CO2 output18%(c.200mt)vs 20082050 CO2 output target:c.500 mtIUMI Stats 202315Around 20%of all fish are caught illegally.20%With Bangladesh and Liberia becoming recent signatories to the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and
58、 Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships,the Convention will enter into force in June 2025.In practice,this means that there will be a clear and uniform set of requirements and certification for ship recycling facilities.Each signatory nation will establish a mechanism for ensuring that its ship re
59、cycling facilities meets the standards of the Convention.IUMI hopes this will result in improvements in safety and environmental protection and,importantly,protection of the workforce.To date,progress has been slow in reducing the human and environmental cost of ship-recycling.IUMI also tracks regio
60、nal fishing performance through the IUU index.This is considered important as around 20%of all fish are caught illegally which risks over-exploitation of fish stocks,food security and a potential for geopolitical tensions.Source:SRTI and offthebeach.org0Chart 23:Ship scrapping200162017201
61、820022 Number of ships scrapped Number of ships beached0800600400200Number of shipsShip recycling transparency initiative signatories(number of ships)2019:1661 2020:2433 2021:3439 2022:3665IUMI Stats 202316Marine insurance A relatively strong growth in the global premium base a
62、cross all lines of businessThe global marine insurance premium base reached a total of USD35.8 billion in 2022 repre-senting an uplift of 8.3%on the previous year.The reasons are complex but likely to include a post-pandemic rebound in global trade coupled with reduced market capacity,particularly f
63、or hull.Increased vessel values,more activity offshore and an upward adjustment in premiums were also responsible.By line of business,cargo continued to command the largest share with 57.3%,followed by hull(23.4%),offshore energy(11.5%)and marine liability(excluding P&I)at 7.7%.USD 35.8 billion mari
64、ne insurance premiums in 2022.35.8 bnChart 24:Marine premiums 2022 By line of business Transport/Cargo 57.3%Global Hull 23.4%Offshore/Energy 11.5%Marine Liability*7.7%*other than P&I covered by clubs of International GroupTotal estimate 2022:USD 35.8 bnSource:IUMISource:IUMIChart 25:Marine premiums
65、2022 By region Europe 47.7%Asia/Pacific 28.4%Latin America 10.3%North America 8.5%Other 5.1%NB:Some figures updated retrospectively,graph not directly comparable with previous presentationsIUMI Stats 202317By region,there was not much change on the previous year.The European markets were continuing
66、their upward trend having bottomed-out in 2019 and the Asia/Pacific market had experienced slower growth probably as a result of economic factors plus the fact that the Japanese and Chinese currencies were weaker when paired with the US dollar.Overall,the general trend for global premiums was upward
67、s.However,care should be taken as exchange rates impact all markets,particularly cargo where business tends to be written in local currencies.To accurately track performance,claims trends should be monitored,being coupled with vessel activity,value accumulation,nat-cat impact,the use of new technolo
68、gy and inflation impact on repair costs.Fires,in particular,continued to be a concern in 2022 and also into 2023.Global marine insurance premiums were up 8.3%on 2021.+8.3%Source:IUMI20,000,00018,000,00016,000,00014,000,00012,000,00010,000,0008,000,0006,000,0004,000,0002,000,0000Chart 26:Marine premi
69、um by region 20122022 20000212022 Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America North America Middle East AfricaUSDIUMI Stats 202318Global marine hull insuranceA positive year for hull underwriters but change is on the horizonGlobal marine hull insurance premiums achieved a tota
70、l of USD8.4 billion in 2022 an increase of 5.7%from 2021.This was largely due to a combination of growing activity,an increased number of vessels and their rising values,and reduced market capacity.Distribution across regions and markets remained stable with Europe dominating at 51.7%followed by Asi
71、a/Pacific at 37%.In terms of performance,all markets except for Latin America continued to improve with the Nordic countries enjoying the steepest growth.The UKs Lloyds market also enjoyed growth after many years of decline.Premium growth is generated by a combination of several factors:these includ
72、e the post-pandemic growth in trade and shipping activity,rate corrections after years of negative hull insurance results,increases in vessel values in certain segments,changes in insurance market capacity and to the degree this is captured by these figures the recent increase in the demand for war
73、coverage.The gap between total gross tonnage/number of vessels and global premiums which opened markedly from 20112018 has closed slightly since 2020 and now appears to be relatively stable,following a market correction.USD 8.4 billion ocean hull insurance premiums in 2022.8.4bnSource:IUMIChart 27:H
74、ull premiums 2022 By region Europe 51.7%Asia/Pacific 37.0%Latin America 5.7%North America 4.7%Africa 0.6%Middle East 0.3%Total estimate 2022:USD 8.4 bnIUMI Stats 202319Source:IUMI1,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Chart 28:Hull premium trends by major markets 20122022 2
75、0000212022 Nordic China UK(Lloyds)Japan Singapore UK(IUA)Latin America Republik of KoreaUSDSource:Vessels Values:Cefor,world fleet data:ISL,hull premium:IUMI25022520007550Chart 29:Hull premium versus world fleet 200520062007200820092001320142015
76、2000222023 Gross tonnage(300 GT)No.ships(300 GT)Global marine hull premium Av.insured vessel value(renewals and newbuilds Cefor)%IUMI Stats 202320Recent changes in vessel values differ substantially by segmentOn the whole,the global fleet is ageing and this is likely to reduce
77、the average value of a vessel going forward.The 2023 half-year hull trend report issued by the Nordic Association of Marine Insurers(Cefor)shows that the change in insured values on renewal varies by sector and,in 2021 and 2022,was particularly marked for containerships.Following huge demand for the
78、se vessels immediately post-pandemic which drove vessel values upwards,demand now appears to have normalised leading to reverse value adjustments.The upward adjustment for tankers in 2022,with a further clear increase in 2023,is related to the Ukraine war and a resulting change in trade patterns.Sup
79、ply/offshore vessels have,after a number of dire years,started to experience some improvement in value development due to the oil price rise driving an increase in offshore activity.Claims trends back to pre-pandemic levelsThe Cefor report further shows that claims frequency has enjoyed a long-term
80、downward trend.In 2020,there was an extraordinary dip as a result of Covid-induced reduced activity in some vessel segments.Post-Covid,claims frequency has returned to a more normal level but remains low.Total loss frequency continues its long-term positive trend and now appears to oscillate around
81、historically low levels.Claims costs per vessel have returned to more normal levels following Covid and average repair costs have seen some upward trend probably due to the impact of inflation.Major losses have been moderate in recent years with the exception of onboard fires.2023 has seen an uptick
82、 in major losses which is likely to continue particularly with regard to the high-value containership and cruise ship sectors having resumed full activity.Loss ratios in nearly all regions experienced a downward trend in 2022 and have done so for the past three years.Having suffered many years of ne
83、gative results,this is welcome.Loss ratios for 2022 have started from their lowest point since 2015 which is very positive for hull underwriters.For Europe,where loss ratios are presented as underwriting year and not accounting year(as they are for other regions),claims covered under the youngest un
84、derwriting years will still develop.Notes:Technical break-even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense ratio(acquisition cots,capital cost,managements expenses).Data is included from Belgium,France,Germany,Italy,Nordic(Cefor)and UKSource:IUMI50403020100Chart 30:Hull loss ra
85、tios Europe202021720182016%Post-Covid,claims frequency has returned to a more normal level but remains low.IUMI Stats 202321Notes:Technical break-even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense ratio(acquisition cots,capital cost,managements expenses).Data is includ
86、ed from Belgium,France,Germany,Italy,Nordic(Cefor)and UKNotes:Data from China,Japan,Hong Kong and India from 2015,Singapore not included.Chart 31:Ultimate loss ratios Europe Underwriting years 201122,gross premiums,paid and outstanding claims50403020100%2000172018201
87、9202020212022 Reported Reported status as of 2022 IBNR estimateSource:IUMI2014 strong major loss impact fire at German shipyard20162017 influenced by yacht damage(hurricane)Chart 32:Hull loss ratios Asia Accounting year,gross premiums,paid claims Gross premiums Paid claims Loss ratio paid claimsSour
88、ce:IUMI 2000020202120222,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,000USD0%80706050403020100IUMI Stats 202322CommentaryThere are a number of issues impacting hull insurers including:InflationDuring the post-Covid period,there was a scarcity of materials such as steel cou
89、pled with an increase in their demand following the re-activation of global shipping.This was exacerbated by rising inflationary pressure,which has driven up the costs of materials,shipyards,and labour.From an underwriting perspective,inflation has not only been applicable to vessel repairs and clai
90、ms but also to general office overheads.In the main,the underwriting community has not applied inflationary increases to the premium base and this may lead to a reduction in overall profitability over the coming year or two.Alternative fuelsEmission reduction technologies are inevitably more sophist
91、icated than the current methods of ship propulsion.This will increase the value of the global fleet and,consequently,the level of risk to be covered.The rapid implementation of these technologies aligned with decarbonisation and GHG emission reduction goals will give rise to new risks such as fuel b
92、lends used with current engines or new methods of propulsion.Insurers need to adapt in line with their clients and build up the competence necessary to assess the risks properly and prevent losses.Fires on containerships and car carriersFires on containerships and car carriers are becoming more comm
93、on and there appears to be several reasons for the increase.The growing size of container vessels increases the probability of containers containing cargo which may ignite.In particular if this is coupled with misdeclaration of cargo or increased transportation of potentially dangerous goods.One iss
94、ue is that many of these vessels are now carrying Li-ion batteries or transporting electric vehicles.A major concern is the potential for thermal runaway,a chemical reaction which causes rapid heating,fire and sometimes an explosion.However,fires from EVs are,reportedly,no more common than those fro
95、m conventional internal combustion engine vehicles but demand different methods for preventing and fighting such fires.Traditional fuels such as petrol and diesel also carry substantial potential dangers but the maritime industry has acquired sufficient experience to manage those risks effectively a
96、nd must do the same for this new technology.IUMI has released a position paper on“Best practice&recommendations for the safe carriage of electric vehicles(EVs)”available from .The”dark fleet”The IMOs Legal Committee noted that a global fleet of between 300 and 600 tankers,primarily comprised of olde
97、r ships,including some not inspected recently,operating with AIS transponders turned off,having substandard maintenance,unclear ownership and a severe lack of insurance,is currently operating as a“dark fleet”to circumvent sanctions,increasing the risk of oil spills and collisions.Issues of accountab
98、ility and traceability in accidents involving the dark fleet and responsibility for wreck removal,pollution response,ship-to-ship transfers of oil,and compensation for victims all remain unclear.Fires on containerships and car carriers are becoming more common IUMI Stats 202323Global marine cargo in
99、suranceSigns of recovery and resilience for cargo underwriters but with a rocky road aheadThe global premium base for the cargo market in 2022 was reported at USD20.5 billion representing an increase on 8.3%on 2021.This demonstrates continuing market development over a number of consecutive years.Pr
100、emium distribution across regions has remained relatively unchanged from previous years with Europe and Asia/Pacific commanding the top and second slots respectively.With the exception of the African and Middle Eastern regions,all others have continued to enjoy growth.In terms of major markets,the U
101、K(Lloyds),US and Brazilian markets grew strongly in 2022 but Japan and China turned downward.The lacklustre performance of these two markets is partly due to a depreciation of those countries currencies against the US dollar.USD 20.5 billion cargo marine insurance premiums in 202220.5 bnSource:IUMIC
102、hart 33:Cargo premiums 2022 By region Europe 38.6%Asia/Pacific 32.0%Latin America 12.2%North America 9.6%Middle East 5.1%Africa 2.6%IUMI Stats 202324Source:IUMI10,000,0009,000,0008,000,0007,000,0006,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,0000Chart 34:Cargo premium by region 2001
103、5200022 Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America North America Middle East AfricaUSDThe performance of the cargo market tends to reflect the value of goods transported and global trade volumes which have both rebounded strongly post pandemic.Further growth is projected but forecasts d
104、iffer and so it is not possible to predict with any certainty.Other factors impacting this market in 2022 included premium rate adjustments,general market conditions and exchange rate effects.IUMI Stats 202325Source:IUMI3,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,0000Chart 35:Cargo premium tren
105、ds by major markets 20122022 USD20000212022 China Japan USA Germany UK(Lloyds)Brazil France UK(IUA)IndiaUSD201415:strong USD“reduces”income of most countries.From 2017 several currencies strength-ened against USD.Source:IMF/IUMI001009080Chart 36
106、:Cargo premium versus world trade values and volume Index 2005=100%2000002220232024 World trade values(goods)IMF April 2023 World trade volume(goods)IMF April 2023 Global cargo premium%Lower than last years IMF estimateIUMI Stats 202326For the European mar
107、kets,recent underwriting years(including 2022)have seen loss ratios return to a more normal flatter pattern following a few years of extraordinary upwards claims adjustments.2022 started at the lowest level since 2015 which is extremely positive for cargo underwriters and potentially heralds a perio
108、d of sustainability.It should be noted that this market is reported by underwriting year and so the ratios will develop over the coming few years.In other regions,loss ratios are reported by accounting year and,in the main,have improved to show a more positive and sustainable global market.Recent un
109、derwriting years have seen loss ratios return to a more normal flatter pattern.Source:IUMI50403020100Chart 37:Cargo loss ratios Europe 0202017 2018 2016%Notes:Technical break-even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense ratio(acquisition costs,capital
110、cost,managements expenses).Data is included from Belgium,France,Germany,Italy and UKNotes:Technical break-even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense ratio(acquisition costs,capital cost,managements expenses).Data is included from Belgium,France,Germany,Italy and UKSource:IUMI Chart
111、38:Ultimate cargo loss ratios Europe Underwriting years 201122,gross premiums,paid and outstanding claims908070605040302010010%Reported 1st year Reported status as of 2022 IBNR estimate 200002020212022IUMI Stats 202327CommentaryAt a macro-economic level,the future of
112、 cargo insurance might be impacted by a general deceleration of global economic growth and the activity of central banks aggressively battling inflation.This could easily herald a reduction in trade volumes world-wide.Coupled with this,a deepening geopolitical fragmentation is further complicating w
113、orld trade dynamics which will,inevitably,present new challenges for underwriters.Following Covid,supply chains seem to have recovered and freight costs have eased,but some trade routes are beginning to evolve and take on a different shape post-Covid.Closer to home,cargo underwriters are grappling w
114、ith a number of specific issues.Inflation has a direct impact on the value of goods transported and,consequently,the value of associated claims.Accumulation of risk in single shore-side facilities or on-board ever-larger vessels continues to generate problems.Mis-declared cargoes and the rising freq
115、uency of onboard fires,particularly in containerships and car carriers is a persistent problem.The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions have injected unpredictability to global supply chains together with the potential for disruption.An increase in natural catastrophes(nat cats)can also ca
116、use disruption as well as result in major claims;and some significant loss events in recent years are continuing to ripple through the insurance value chain.Chart 39:Cargo Loss ratios Asia Accounting year,gross premiums,paid claims6,000,000,0005,000,000,0004,000,000,0003,000,000,0002,000,000,0001,00
117、0,000,000USD Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratioNote:China,Japan,Hong Kong,India from 2013.Source:IUMI 0200002020212022%706050403020100IUMI Stats 202328Global offshore energy insuranceA fundamental shift is underwayThe upward trend in the offshore energy premi
118、um base continued into 2022 resulting in USD4.1 billion for the year,up by 7.3%on last year.The uptick was largely reflective of the oil price and a corresponding uplift in offshore activity,particularly jack ups and deep-water vessels.Inflation and its impact on asset values was also a factor.The t
119、wo major markets in this sector are both in the UK(Lloyds and IUA)with the IUA continuing to grow its share.Other markets have remained relatively stable.The global premium base which bottomed-out in 2019 and has risen year-on-year since then.USD 4.1 billion offshore energy premiums in 2022.4.1bnSou
120、rce:IUMI/WTWNotes:Premiums reported by associations.Some double-reporting due to global nature of business.Some overestimation of global premium.WTW (Willis Tower Watson):Derived from Lloyds triangulation.Global premium calculated by assuming a fixed Lloyds market share in all years.Underestimation
121、of global premium.Not robust against changes in Lloyds market share.Chart 40:Offshore energy premium 20000022 Other USA India Egypt Nigeria Italy Nordic Malaysia Japan Brazil Mexico UK(IUA)UK(Lloyds)WTW estimated premium(assuming fixed Lloyds market share)
122、6,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,0000IUMI Stats 202329Increases in the oil price will drive an uplift in offshore activity,generally after an 18-month lag and this will impact average day rates and the overall premium base as a result.The premium base tends to mirror the oil price
123、which has been relatively strong since late 2020 and more so in 2022.Prices began to fall in 2023 which is likely to herald weaker returns for insurers in 2023 and 2024,although a recent OPEC agreement might arrest the anticipated decline.Chart 41:Average oil price per month World Bank commodity pri
124、ce data,January 2005July 2023 USD/bblSource:World Bank0406080200USD20052006200720082009200000222023 Brent WTIFollowed by oil price rally into 2022Extraordinary drop in 2020Down again from mid 2022 but has been buoyed after June 2023 OPEC decisio
125、nSource:IUMI,Clarksons Research,World Bank20%Chart 42:Energy premium versus mobile units,day rates,oil price 200000222023 Oil price,Brend Crude Global Offshore Energy Premium No.Contracted Rigs Average Day Rates140%160%130%100%80%60%40%Recent upswing in oi
126、l price initiated new activity.Drop in oil price was followed by drop in premium.IUMI Stats 202330There is generally a long back-log in claims reporting which makes loss ratios challenging to analyse and predict.The youngest underwriting years will continue to develop,often over a number of years,an
127、d claims impact on results can differ substantially from year to year.Reported outstanding losses for 2020 increased substantially since last years reporting but on the whole,losses in this sector remain low and relatively stable.A fragile balance remains,however,with reduced premiums(but now rising
128、)and a modest claims impact.Risks and claims resulting from unit activation have the potential to disrupt the balance.Chart 43:Offshore energy gross loss ratios Europe Underwriting years 20112022,incl.liability,as of year-end 2022 Gross premiums,paid and outstanding as reported60%70%50%40%2011201220
129、00020Source:IUMI paid 1st year paid 2nd year paid 3rd year paid 4th year paid 5th year paid 6th year paid 7th year paid 8th year paid 9th year paid 10th year outstandingNotes:Underwriting years 20112022 including liability as of year end 2022.Gross premiums paid and
130、outstanding as reported.Includes data from Lloyds IUA,Nordic.30%20%10%A fragile balance exists with reduced premiums and a modest claims impact.IUMI Stats 202331CommentaryThe coming few years are likely to see the fundamentals of the offshore energy market shift much more significantly than other se
131、ctors.As peak oil is approached,the growth in lower carbon technology will accelerate.Floating wind capacity,as an example,is forecast to grow exponentially over the next few years as increased levels of investment are made(see charts 1921).The evolution of energy production will give rise to a new
132、set of technologies with new risks that will need to be insured.Carbon capture and storage facilities are likely to feature large over the coming years but underwriters are already used to insuring subterranean structures.Other developments currently underway include methane gas leak detection reduc
133、ing GHG emissions as well as the electrification of offshore platforms using renewable energy sources.Underwriters will need to innovate and re-invent their insurance products so they remain fit-for-purpose.Insurance must be an enabler and underwriters should,in cooperation with their clients,develo
134、p the competence and products needed to support this vital energy transition process.Underwriters will need to innovate and re-invent their insurance products so they remain fit-for-purpose.IUMI Stats 202332In recent years we have been recruiting national insurance associations who have agreed to su
135、bmit data on major hull and cargo claims dating from 2013.This year,our focus has been on growing our pool of contributors and we are delighted to report that the United States of America has now agreed to participate bringing the total number of contributing countries to 28.Note:Figures reflect the
136、 state of reporting and will likely change retrospectively as they are updated.Reported figures are as accurate as possible but may not be fully consistent for all countries.All data given is of an informational and non-binding character only.Major claims databaseContributing countries28Chart 44:Con
137、tributing countriesSource:IUMI Major Claims DatabaseCountries Scope of dataBelgium Hull&CargoGermany Hull&CargoJapan Hull&CargoNetherlands Hull&CargoSingapore Hull&CargoSweden Hull&CargoSwitzerland CargoGreece Hull&CargoAustralia Hull&CargoTaiwan Hull&CargoCountries Scope of dataIndia Hull&CargoItal
138、y Hull&CargoMalaysia Hull&CargoPoland Hull&CargoSlovenia Hull&CargoSpain Hull&CargoTurkey Hull&CargoUnited Kingdom Hull&CargoFrance Hull&CargoThailand Hull&CargoCountries Scope of dataUnited Arab Emirates Hull&CargoNew Zealand Hull&CargoHong Kong Hull&CargoCyprus HullPhilippines Hull&CargoCroatia Hu
139、llSouth Africa Hull&CargoUSA CargoIUMI Stats 202333Our cargo data is based on 13 data fields and major cargo losses have been analysed with respect to loss severity,frequency,location and cause.We are publishing our cargo results for the fourth consecutive year.We hope to be able to publish hull dat
140、a in 2024.As ever,we thank IUMI Professional Partner,the Boston Consulting Group and the IUMI project team members for their continuing contributions.4234446746824390418Source:IUMI Major Claims DatabaseIncurred losses,USDm#of claim recordsAverage losses,USDm1,5001,000500Chart 45:Cargo Inc
141、urred losses and average losses in the period 20132022 USDm2000202021202220193.02.01.00Note:More than 99%of all observations can be used for analysis 9869861,2597291,1727264881,1841,1748311,11203.03.0Explosion inTianjin1.81.72.01.12.31.71.81.82.8Number of claim records in 2022.
142、553IUMI Stats 20233410mSource:IUMI Major Claims Database*Number of losses divided by number of claim records for every yearNote:More than 99%of all observations can be used for analysis;Losses are categorized by individual claim records rather than aggregates/events 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201
143、9 2020 2021 2022+11%2%3%4%0%1%242642302726443223744343325532723303020100Chart 46:Cargo Normalized*number of losses across different loss size buckets in the period 20132022%29299 92828292928289 9292929299 9The average cargo loss for 2022 was USD 2 million
144、showing a general upward trend since 2017.In general,it appears that the smaller losses are continuing to grow in number whilst the larger losses are decreasing in number.More than 99%of all observations can be used for analysis.99%IUMI Stats 202335Chart 47 compares the number of claims with the tot
145、al percentage of incurred losses.For example,31%of claims were below USD 500,000 and this accounted for 6%of the incurred loss total.6%10%19%15%14%37%31%29%25%9%4%3%Number of claims4,8059,660,634,114Incurred losses,$Source:IUMI Major Claims Database100%80%60%40%20%Chart 47:Distribution of number of
146、cargo claims and incurred losses by size buckets 20132022 Distribution of claims by claim size categories,%Note:99%of all observations can be used for analysisNote:Losses are categorized by individual claim records rather than aggregates/events 10M 5M10M 2.5M5M 1M2.5M 500K1M 500KIUMI Stats 202336Cha
147、rts 4850 give a deeper dive into major cargo losses by type and also by mode of transport.Chart 50 excludes the impact of nat-cats or natural perils(which are included in other charts)to provide further detail.20002020295991,0504191,1431,1241,0121,024Source:IUMI Majo
148、r Claims Database1,0008006004002000Chart 48:Top major cargo losses by type of loss 20132022 USDmNote:Due to manual mapping work about 88%of all observations can be used for analysis(compared to 80%otherwise);Remaining categories includes minor types of losses(e.g.,piracy)Please note there may be min
149、or discrepencies due to data sets being rounded up or rounded down.USDm Fire/Explosion NatCat events or Natural perils Denting/breakage/latent defect Theft/robbery/burglary Wetting/mould/humidity/water damage Sabotage/strike General average Contamination Road accident Transport accident during loadi
150、ng/unloading Remaining categories Other/unknown60760738%3%8%10%5%23%7%2%1%1%3%39%6%7%4%12%16%8%1%2%3%2%8%9%4%3%4%15%5%8%5%8%30%2%11%9%37%33%1%2%2%1%1%0%45%5%14%5%14%7%2%3%2%2%0%2%26%11%7%19%15%5%2%2%1%13%3%3%3%8%6%29%26%2%2%14%11%4%7%5%5%6%13%27%3%3%14%3%2%2%2%3%5%35%32%0%20%8%2%6%3%3%4%7%19%26%1%1%
151、2%7%1%2%1%1%2%2%3%4%4%6%6%5%5%29%29%7%7%755755Due to manual mapping work about 88%of all observations can be used for analysis88%IUMI Stats 202337Chart 49:Number of cargo losses by mode of transport 20132022Note:Due to manual mapping work about 59%of all observations can be used for analysis(compare
152、d to 56%otherwise)Source:IUMI Major Claims Database5004003002002000222019 Air Rail Road Sea Storage Unknown069984837444076642790427477885626745959272793932842842952872872385185172
153、94377377456287287Chart 50:Number of cargo losses by mode of transport excluding nat-cat events/natural perils 20132022Note:Due to manual mapping work about 59%of all observations can be used for analysis(compared to 56%otherwise)Source:IUMI Major Claims Database5004003002002001
154、82020202120222019 Air Rail Road Sea Storage Unknown38276960485460755866866833865379231231 2423394352593254262266204 204 2062060464969IUMI Stats 202338More informationAdditional information such as marine premiums
155、 by country,loss ratio triangulations for cargo,hull and offshore energy,and hull and cargo inflation indices are available for IUMI members from the member statistics section of IUMIs website.Data sourcesInformation sources are clearly stated for each chart.IUMI thanks its partners who have kindly
156、supplied charts or data for this document.IUMI dataIUMIs total world-wide premium includes data from all relevant marine insurance markets in all continents.Loss ratio data is collected from a number of selected countries which are able to provide such data.Since 2017,IUMI has been adding informatio
157、n about accounting year loss ratios from major Asian and Latin American markets and since 2021 also from the US,in addition to the underwriting year loss ratios reported from major European marine insurance markets.Care should be taken when making comparisons with earlier figures as data coverage va
158、ries in different years and a number of figures will be updated retrospectively.Underwriting year results do develop over a couple of years due to a time lag in claims reporting and payments.The ultimate results as presented in the graphs for the youngest years are thus estimates derived from typica
159、l historical development patterns.When interpreting statistics,caution should always be applied regarding what the data actually relates to.IUMI stresses that all figures released by IUMIs Facts and Figures Committee are global market sums or averages.While these reflect the average performance of t
160、he marine insurance market,individual companies or countries results may differ substantially.As with all averages,individual underwriting units may over or underperform compared with the average.IUMI does not make any statements about what actual applied premium rates were or should be.The aim of I
161、UMI is solely to provide data as available and raise awareness for the importance of a critical evaluation of the risks covered.DisclaimerThis publication provides general information only and should not be relied upon for business,investment or any other purpose.Whilst every effort has been made to
162、 ensure that the information provided is accurate,this information is provided without any representation or warranty of any kind about its accuracy and IUMI,its officers or representatives cannot be held responsible for any mistakes or omissions.Information,views and opinions expressed are those of
163、 IUMI and are not attributed to any individual committee member or officer of IUMI.NotesIUMI Stats 202339IUMI thanks its key data and contentprovidersAbout IUMIThe International Union of Marine Insurance(IUMI)represents 43 national and marine market insurance and reinsurance associations.Operating a
164、t the forefront of marine risk,it gives a unified voice to the global marine insurance market through effective representation and lobbying activities.As a forum for the exchange of ideas and best practice,IUMI works to raise standards across the industry and provides opportunities for education and
165、 the collection and publication of industry statistics.IUMI is headquartered in Hamburg and traces its roots back to 1874.International Union of Marine InsuranceGrosse Elbstrasse 3622767 Hamburg,G+49 40 2000 747-0Copyright Copyright 2023 International Union of Marine Insurance/All rights reserved.IU
166、MI Stats 202340Facts&Figures Committee2022/2023Javier Alonso Mapfre ReMario Ciancarelli Swiss ReRobert Copp Axis ReinsuranceBruno Davila-Garcia Boston Consulting GroupPaul Hackett CanopiusStephan Klein General Reinsurance AG,Gen Re Sigorney Lau China Merchants Insurance CoSanjiv Singh General Insura
167、nce CouncilXiaoxuan(Sherwin)Li PICC Property and Casualty CoKotaro Miyata Sompo Japan Insurance IncEmiel Paaij DUPI Underwriting Agencies BVErika Schoch Swiss Reinsurance America CorpLaurent Verheyen SA Jean VerheyenJun Lin Chair GardAstrid Seltmann Vice Chair CeforMathieu Daubin Vice Chair AXA XLDavid Matcham Secretary International Underwriting AssociationMariella Dauphinee Executive Committee Liaison Intact Insurance CompanyAt the forefront of marine riskInternational Union of Marine Insurance Grosse Elbstrasse 36 D-22767 Hamburg,Germany Telephone+49 40 2000 747-0 Email