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1、urban mobilitybeyond carsChina is racing towardsemissionroad transporturban mobility beyond carszeroPREFACEClimate change has posed signifcant threats to our planet,which is evident from the observed global warming,the melting polar ice shields,the rising sea level,and more frequent and severe extre
2、me weather events.These alarming changes have caused extensive damage to cities,rural areas,and the rest parts of ecosystems worldwide.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has concluded that human infuence on the climate system is clear.To address climate change and ramp up the actions and
3、 investments needed,the global community adopted“Paris Agreement”in December 2015.Its primary objective is to limit the global temperature rise this century well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and strive to keep even lower at 1.5C.To have the goal within reach,global greenhouse gases(GHGs)emis
4、sions need to peak before 2025,decrease by 45%by 2030,and achieve net zero by 2050.However,the current actions are neither broad,nor bold,nor fast enough.In 2020,the Arctic and the Antarctic continent witnessed record-breaking temperatures of 38.0C and 18.3C,respectively(WMO,2021a,2021b).As this war
5、ming trend continues,2023 is set to be the hottest year on record at many places.Notably,Beijing experienced a scorching temperature of over 41.1C,signifcantly higher than the previous records for the same period(Shi,2023).The Middle East also endured an extreme heat index of 66.7C,reaching the uppe
6、r thresholds for human tolerance.Meanwhile,the Southern U.S.grappled with an exceptionally intense and extended heat wave from California to Florida.Phoenix City hit 43.3C for 31 consecutive days(Patel,2023).Furthermore,the return of El Nio has set the stage for soaring global temperatures and inten
7、sifying damaging weather patterns.It underscores the urgency to accelerate reductions in emissions.China is the worlds second largest transport carbon emitter only after the U.S.Although currently,Chinas transport emissions account for about 9%of the national total(IEA,2021,2023a,2023c),they are com
8、parable with many countries economy-wide emissionsthree times that of the UK,twice as much as Canadas,and almost equal Japans.Chinas transport sector could come into the sixth place if it were a country.In Chinas quest for zero emission transport,electric vehicles(EVs1)is always the frst one that pe
9、ople give credit to.Globally,China has ranked frst in both EV production and sales for eight consecutive years since 2015.By the end of 2022,the country has seized 58%of global EV sales and 56%of total EV stock(IEA,2023b).However,Chinas large population,growingly concentrated people in cities,and di
10、verse economy mean that Chinas passenger transport cannot rely solely on cars.To ensure safe,equitable,convenient,economical,and clean travel for 1.4 billion people,China must seek sustainable ways beyond cars.Therefore,China prioritizes the development of public transport and active mobility2 and k
11、eeps improving the service.There are also detours,some of which may serve as references for future development in China and other countries.This report aims to present Chinas initiatives,progress,insights,and lessons learnt in the pursuit of zero emission urban mobility beyond cars.It will be elabor
12、ated from the aspects including buses,urban rails,shared bicycles,and electric two and three wheelers(E2/3Ws)3.The information and discussions in this report could be valuable to countries at different stages of transition who seek to accelerate the advancement of zero emission urban mobility.Its Ch
13、inese name is new energy vehicles(NEVs),including battery electric vehicles(BEVs),plug-in hybrid vehicles(PHEVs),and fuel cell vehicles(FCVs).Active mobility is the Chinese term of“slow transportation(慢行交通)”which includes both walking and non-motorized vehicles such as bicycles and e-bikes.It is sim
14、ilar to the term of“micro mobility”that includes bicycles,two wheelers,and three wheelers,either privately owned or publicly shared.The major difference between the two terms is whether walking is included or not.This report will mainly look at the widely deployed electric two and three wheelers,bec
15、ause the fossil-fuel two and three wheelers,which are commonly used in rural areas and small cities,are often defined as motorcycles in China for their typical high speed of over 50km per hour.This report is a knowledge product of Energy Foundation China.Authors are:Yin Le,Senior Program Offcer of t
16、he Transportation Program,Energy Foundation China Zheng Biqi,Program Offcer of the Transportation Program,Energy Foundation China Wang Man,Consultant of the Transportation Program,Energy Foundation China Gong Huiming,Senior Program Director of the Transportation Program,Energy Foundation China Sun X
17、uefei,Senior Program Associate of the Transportation Program,Energy Foundation China ABOUT THE AUTHORSThe team would like to thank the following experts for their contribution to this report:Li Shanshan,Vice Country Director,Institute for Transportation&Development PolicyLiang Jindong,Executive Dire
18、ctor,Beijing Smart&Green Transport Research Center Peng Yuhui,Professor,Fuzhou UniversityThe team also appreciates Ms.Li Li for her excellent editing,and appreciate the selfess help from Ms.Lin Weiwei,Ms.Xin Yan,Ms.Yang Peipei,Ms.Zhao Rui,and Ms.Zhuo Yuewen from Energy Foundation China.ACKNOWLEDGEME
19、NTThis document was prepared based on information and data acquired from public sources,neither Energy Foundation China nor any of its employees,makes any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy and completeness.The views and opinions of authors expressed her
20、ein do not necessarily state or refect those of Energy Foundation China.This document is for reference only.Readers are to exercise independent judgment on the contents,and Energy Foundation China does not assume any legal responsibility for the consequences caused by the use of this document by any
21、 individual or institution.Reference herein to any specifc entity,product or service,does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,recommendation,or favoring by Energy Foundation China.DISCLAIMERTo reference this report,please use following citation as:Yin,L.,Zheng,B.,Wang,M.,Gong,H.,&Sun
22、,X.(2023).China is racing towards zero emission transport:urban mobility beyond cars.Energy Foundation China(EF China).CITATIONChina is racing towards zero emission transport:urban mobility beyond carsTABLE OF CONTENTS83838385IA GLIMPSE OF CHINAS URBAN MOBILITY DEVELOPMENTIITRANSIT BUSWHATS the scal
23、e and emission of transit bus system in China?WHY does China prioritize the zero emission transformation of buses?HOW does the policy motivate the changes?313640KEY FACTORS determining Chinas urban mobility demand and international comparisonKEY DRIVERS for China to move towards zero emission urban
24、mobilityProgress of zero emission urban mobility beyond cars in China081620IIIURBAN RAILIVSHARED BICYCLES AND ELECTRIC TWO AND THREE WHEELERSWHY are shared bicycles and E2/3Ws so popular?WHAT impacts do shared bicycles and E2/3Ws bring to urban mobility?WHAT are the key fndings?616873WHAT makes urba
25、n rail favored over road transport?HOW BIG and FAST does urban rail develop?HOW does urban rail contribute to ease the traffc and reduce emissions?WHAT kind of policies enable such development?46505255VIWHATS MORE FOR LOOKING AHEAD?Strengthen overarching planningImprove the fnancial sustainability o
26、f public transportAvoid“one size fts all”policy for E2/3Ws managementSeize the opportunity of future technology to provide more inclusive,safe and environmental transport services.ACCESS FOR ALL:improve the barrier-free mobility85VKEY ELEMENTS FOR SUCCESSVision,mission and actionsProactive governmen
27、t and consistent and sustainable policiesConsensus and alignment across stakeholdersHigh-effciency and low-cost manufacturing along the supply chainOverseeing,evaluating,and improving the policy goals8080818180Executive Summary01LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS06Milestones of Chinas Urban Mobility
28、 Development beyond Cars(2007-2022)86References89Major Policies of Chinas Urban Mobility Beyond Cars(2003-2023)87010201Executive SummaryBus and urban rail accounted for 72%of nationwide revenue urban passenger volume in 2019.Same year,93 billion passenger trips were carried by bus and urban rail in
29、China(MOT,2014-2023),over nine times of the volume in the U.S.(APTA,2023).In 2022,China led the global bus market with its feet taking a quarter of the worlds buses.In terms of new bus sales worldwide,83%of BEV and 96%of PHEV were in China(IEA,2023b).As of 2022,Chinas bus stock was 703,200(MOT,2014-
30、2023),which was 9.8 times of the U.S.(APTA,2023).Among these buses,77%had already been electrifed and the remaining 23%fossil fuel buses are expected to be fully electrifed in the coming few years(MOT,2014-2023).This shift is facilitated by the fact that over 99%of the newly purchased or replaced bu
31、ses in China by the end of 2022 are new energy vehicles(NEVs).Globally,China has the largest urban rail network,in terms of length and the number of cities with urban rails.By 2022,41 cities in China have had metros with a collective length of 8,448 kilometers.The daily ridership of Chinas urban rai
32、ls hit 53 million passenger trips in 2022(CAMET,2014-2023).In addition to its strides in bus electrifcation and urban rails,China has also been at the forefront of Bus Rapid Transit(BRT).By 2022,China had over seven thousand kilometers of BRT in operation.In 2019,BRT lines and vehicles per million i
33、nhabitants in China reached 4.4km and 6.7 buses(MOT,2014-2020),surpassing the U.S.by fourfold and fvefold,respectively(APTA,2023).China also owns the worlds largest bike,2/3Ws and E2/3Ws system.Sixty percent of bike ridership comes from shared bicycles.By 2022,the nationwide feet of shared bicycles
34、was 14.9 million,with the services covering 400 cities(Wei,2022).Meanwhile,81%of 2Ws and 20%of 3Ws were electrifed(CCCM,2023,and iResearch,2023).Chinas electric two and three wheelers(E2/3Ws)stock had exceeded 420 million by 2022,1.3 times of Chinas national car stock and about 1.5 times of car stoc
35、k in the U.S.and EU.Chinas transport sector emitted 9.46 million tons of CO2 in 2022,accounting for 9%of national total carbon emissions(IEA,2023c).This makes China the worlds second largest transport carbon emitter only after the U.S.Urban mobility represents a major emission source of Chinas road
36、transport,which contributes about 80%of Chinas transport carbon emission and about 7%of Chinas national total carbon emission.Therefore,zero emission transformation of urban mobility is critical for China to achieve its carbon goals.China has been making efforts to reduce urban mobility emissions,es
37、pecially through its unprecedented and world-leading development of EVs.By the end of 2022,China accounted for 58%of global EV sales and 56%of EV stock(IEA,2023b).However,Chinas transition to zero emission transport requires more than just EVs,due to its large population,vast territory,complex terra
38、in,diversifed and imbalanced economy,as well as growing travel demand coming along with fast urbanization.China must develop a high-capacity and comprehensive urban mobility system beyond cars to provide safe,equitable,convenient,economical and clean travel for its 1.4 billion people.hina operates o
39、ne of the worlds largest and cleanest urban mobility systemCDespite carbon emissions,reducing criteria air pollutants for air quality and public health also motivates Chinas transition to zero emission transport.Passenger transport,including urban mobility,contributes about 12%of national total Nitr
40、ogen Oxide(NOx)emissions(MEE,2022,2023).High concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone correlate with high vehicle stock.Fifty-six cities with large vehicle stock fail to meet both PM2.5 and ozone national standards,posing harm to the health of over 330 million people(about 24%of Chinas population IPE,2023c
41、 and Fuzhou University).he push for zero emission transport:tackling climate,air,and healthTIn the past 50 years,urban built-up areas in Chinas major cities expanded 7.5 times,increasing peoples commute distances(Liu et al.,2021).In 2022,the average single trip commute distance in Beijing,Shanghai,S
42、henzhen,and Guangzhou was 11.7km,9.8km,8.5km,and 9.1km respectively,increased by about 5%,10%,12%,and 5%from their 2020 levels(Zhao et al.,2020 and Wang et al.,2021,2022,2023).With a targeted 70%urbanization rate in 2030,980 million people may live in cities,which will bring growing travel demands(N
43、BS,2023d).The demand could go even higher if Chinas urbanization rate reaches 80%,the same as that of the UK and the U.S.Over the past two decades,China has been making efforts to decouple ridership growth from emissions by developing EVs,adopting cleaner internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles,opti
44、mizing transport mode structure,and managing transit demands.hina is decoupling the travel demand growth with emissionsChina strengthens the emissions reduction of ICE vehicles by phasing out the yellow sticker and old cars and raising standards for fuel economy,fuel quality and vehicle emissions.Ch
45、ina Phase III fuel economy standards tighten urban bus fuel consumption limits by 15.9%,compared to Phase I standard(Jin and Wang,2011,Wen et al.,2014,&Wang et al.,2018).According to China V fuel quality standards,the most stringent globally by far,over 99%sulfur content in diesel and gasoline need
46、to be reduced(TransportP,2018).Nitrogen Oxides(NOx)and particulate matter(PM)from buses dropped as much as 94%and 97%by China VI vehicle emission standards,compared to China I.And China has also moved to lead-free gasoline since early 2000s nationally(Science and Technology Standards Department,2001
47、,Environmental Standards Institute and Jinan Automobile Test Center,2005,and Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences et al.,2018).Both fuel efficiency and criteria air pollutants emissions of ICE vehicles are continuously significantly tightenedChina has legally prioritized public transit
48、 over all the other modes since 2005.Consequently,Chinas bus ridership and vehicle mileage reached 69 billion passenger trips and 35 billion kilometers in 2019(MOT,2020),about 15 times and 9 times the U.S.levels respectively(APAT,2023).Public transit development,especially urban rails,brings down th
49、e use of cars.Annual private car vehicle kilometers traveled(VKT)is reduced by 2.5%per year in the past decades in Beijing,Shanghai,and Chengdu,despite their growing population,urban built-up areas,and vehicle stock(EF China analysis,Xiamen Environment Protection Vehicle Emission Control Technology
50、Center,BTI,Shanghai Urban Rural Construction and Transportation Development Research Institute,Chengdu VECC).Public transit is the most prioritized urban transport mode for development Eight out of ten Chinese people choose bikes and two and three wheelers(2/3Ws)as one of their primary choices of ur
51、ban mobility because they are affordable,convenient,fexible,congestion-free and can serve as a very pleasant“last-mile”solution.E2/3Ws replace 23%travel of trips previously by cars(ITDP,2022).Fifty-fve percent of shared e-bike trips connect to urban rail transit.The“bikes and E2Ws+urban rail transit
52、”model has become popular among the citizens,expanding urban rail access.Shared bicycles and E2/3Ws play a unique and critical role for short-distance private trips and connection to public modesTransit-Oriented Development(TOD)was frst introduced to China around 2005.A number of localized TOD model
53、s have been created and practiced since then,including“rail plus property”(R+P),“integrated hub station development”,and“metro station-centered complex development”.All the models emphasize integrating transit and land use planning,thus reducing the travel demand and travel distances.TOD is highligh
54、ted as a new development model to encourage public transportC0304C hina takes systematic approaches to integrate policies and technologies together with stakeholders alignment building,implementation and evaluationAn ambitious vision guides the different stakeholders toward a shared goal.This will b
55、uild market confdence,create economies of scale,and enhance the competitiveness of advanced technology and products.Vision guides long-term actions and strengthens market confidenceA wide range of government departments,including MOT,MOHURD,NDRC,MIIT,MEE,MPS,SAMR,MOF and etc,oversee urban mobility m
56、anagement.Other stakeholders along the industry chain include urban planners,investors and operators of bus lines and urban rails,vehicle manufacturers,consumers,drivers,and charging service providers.It is crucial for all these stakeholders to build consensus and enhance collaboration.Alignment acr
57、oss stakeholders to build consensusChina has been steadily expanding its bus and urban rail networks as well as electrifying its vehicle feets to reduce emissions.Ministries and local governments enacted supporting policies on subsidies and Dedicated Bus Lanes(DBL).China rolled out national pilot pr
58、ograms on full-scale electrifcation of public vehicles,including buses,taxis,sanitation vehicles,postal and urban logistics vehicles with the targets to achieve an 80%market penetration rate for NEVs by 2025.All these efforts not only speed up Chinas pursuit of zero emission transport,but also stren
59、gthen Chinas R&D capability,manufacturing effciency,and supply chain resilience.Proactive policies to ensure implementationPolicies play a vital role,but there are also implicit drivers,including vision or long-term goals,proactive government,strong implementation,alignment across stakeholders,and t
60、o continuously improving technologies and products on the market.China needs to integrate multifunctional land use into urban planning,in order to improve job-housing balance and reduce commuting distances.Overarching planningCurrently,both buses and urban rails heavily rely on subsidies.China shoul
61、d conduct a detailed analysis of cost structure to refne subsidy policies,which will ensure necessary fnancial support while also boost operational revenues.Financial sustainability mbracing innovation and new business models:advancing planning,financial sustainability,localized policy,future techno
62、logy,and accessibilityE LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONSIt is important to avoid“one size fts all”approach,particularly concerning E2/3Ws,which have experienced rapid and unregulated growth over the past two decades.Coordination is essential among authorities,industry associations,companies,and us
63、ers to govern the 420 million E2/3Ws.This approach enables their orderly development and emission reduction potentials.Localized policiesThe future of transport technology is experiencing rapid growth.Autonomous vehicles,for instance,are poised to bring about signifcant changes in the mobility servi
64、ces market,impacting the environment,economy,and social welfare in the coming decades.China should capitalize on the opportunities presented by future technology to reshape urban mobility,making it more inclusive,safe,and environmentally friendly.Future technologyConsidering China has about 85 milli
65、on individuals with disabilities and 210 million people aged 65 or above,barrier-free mobility is gaining importance.Accessible facilities and services can provide equitable access to transport,employment,social activities,and personal fulfllment for different vulnerable groups.Developing barrier-fr
66、ee mobility will promote public transit use while building a more inclusive society.In summary,by refning policies related to overarching planning,fnancial sustainability,contextualized policies,and inclusive accessibility,China can advance its progress toward zero-emission mobility.Leveraging demog
67、raphic trends can also reinforce public transit priorities.Chinas comprehensive approach and updated policies can offer valuable experiences for sustainable mobility transitions worldwide.Transport accessibilityg/m3ACEAAPMAPTABEVBMCTBMSTCBRTBTICAMETCATARCCAUPDCCCMCFRCNGCO2CRAESDBLDG MOVEDTIE-BikeECE
68、-MopedE-MotorcycleE2WsE3WsEUEVFCVFYPGDPGHGsGIZGVWRICCTICEICE2WsICE3WsKm/hKWhIEAIMFIPCCIPEITDPMicrograms Per Cubic MeterEuropean Automobile Manufacturers AssociationAutomated People Mover System American Public Transportation AssociationBattery Electric VehicleBeijing Municipal Commission of Transpor
69、tBeijing Municipal Science and Technology CommissionBus Rapid TransitBeijing Transport InstituteChina Association of MetrosChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co.,Ltd.China Academy of Urban Planning and DesignChina Chamber of Commerce for MotorcycleNational Fire and Rescue Administration
70、,PRCCompressed Natural GasCarbon DioxideChinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesDedicated Bus LaneDirectorate-General for Mobility and TransportDeparting Time Interval Electric BicycleEuropean CommissionElectric MopedElectric MotorcycleElectric Two WheelersElectric Three WheelersEuropean U
71、nionElectric VehicleFuel Cell VehicleFive-Year PlanGross Domestic ProductGreenhouse GasesDeutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbHGross Vehicle Weight RatingInternational Council on Clean TransportationInternal Combustion EngineInternal Combustion Engine Two WheelersInternal Combus
72、tion Engine Three WheelersKilometer Per HourKilowatt HourInternational Energy AgencyInternational Monetary FundIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeInstitute of Public and Environmental AffairsInstitute for Transportation and Development PolicyLDVLNGMaaSMARAMEEMEMMIITMNRMOCMOFMOHRSSMOHURDMOSTMOT
73、MPSMtNAAQSNBSNDRCNEANEVNOxOECDO3PATHPHEVPMPM2.5PPM/ppmR+PRPKRMBSAMRSMPSq Km/km2UITPUSDVGIVKTWBWDIWMOWPRLight-Duty VehicleLiquifed Natural GasMobility as a ServiceMinistry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,PRCMinistry of Ecology and Environment,PRCMinistry of Emergency Management,PRCMinistry of Indust
74、ry and Information Technology,PRCMinistry of Natural Resources,PRCMinistry of Construction,PRC(restructured as MOHURD in 2008)Ministry of Finance,PRCMinistry of Human Resources and Social Security,PRCMinistry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development,PRCMinistry of Science and Technology,PRCMinistry of
75、 Transport,PRCMinistry of Public Security,PRCMillion Tonnes National Ambient Air Quality StandardsNational Bureau of Statistics,PRCNational Development and Reform Commission,PRCNational Energy Administration,PRCNew Energy Vehicle Nitrogen OxidesOrganization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentO
76、zone/TrioxygenPort Authority Trans-Hudson CorporationPlug-In Hybrid Electric VehicleParticulate MatterFine Particulate MatterParts Per MillionRail Plus PropertyRevenue Passenger KilometersRenminbi(Chinese Currency Offcial Name)State Administration for Market Regulation,PRCShenzhen Metro GroupSquare
77、KilometerUnion Internationale des Transports PublicsUnited States DollarVehicle Grid IntegrationVehicle Kilometers TravelledWorld BankWorld Development IndicatorsWorld Meteorological OrganizationWorld Population Review050607A GLIMPSEOF CHINAS URBANMOBILITY DEVELOPMENTPART IKEY FACTORS determining Ch
78、inas urban mobility demand and international comparisonChina has the third largest land area and the second biggest human population in the world,making its transport system ranking the top by many indicators.The frst keyword about Chinas passenger transport and urban mobility is huge.But it is equa
79、lly important to underscore other attributes of this system,including but not limited to diversifed,strong growth complicated,substantial emissions,and racing towards zero.Unlike other major economies,which has relatively stabilized mobility demands,Chinas urban passenger transport keeps growing ste
80、adily and rapidly,which makes its pursuit of zero emission urban mobility one of the most challenging.I-108094“Urban rail”in China refers to the public transport system that uses rail structure for load-carrying and guidance.This system installs fully or partially enclosed dedicated rail lines to tr
81、ansport large numbers of passengers using train sets or single rail cars.The main urban rail types in China include subway,light rail,monorail,tram,maglev,automated people mover system(APM),and commuter rail.The Urban Public Transport Classification Standards(CJJ/T 114-2007)provides definitions for
82、each urban rail type based on factors like the right-of-way,capacity,speed,track position,etc.5 The urban rail number in the U.S.includes all fixed-guideway rail modes of urban transit,such as heavy rail,commuter rail,hybrid rail,light rail,and streetcar.China operates one of the worlds largest publ
83、ic urban mobility systemsIn 201993Bpassenger trips were delivered by bus and urban rail4 in China in 2019.9U.S.5 5Bus and Urban Rail Passenger Volume of China and U.S.(2011-2020)Figure 1Passenger Volume(Billion Trips)Ministry of Transport of China(MOT,20142023),American Public Transportation Associa
84、tion(APTA,2023,Table 1&3)BusUrban RailChinaU.S.2000020ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.0Worlds Top 10 Longest Municipal Metro/Subway Networks in 2020Figure 2UITP Secretariat(2022a)Halfof the Top 10 longest mu
85、nicipal metro/subway networks are in China.By 2022,subway systems in 41 cities of China had a collective length of 8,448km(CAMET,2023).7006005004003002001000ShanghaiBeijingSeoulChengdu Guangzhou London Shenzhen New YorkTokyoMoscowTotal rail transit(Km)The rapid expansion of cities and urbanization h
86、ave extended peoples travel radius in cities,leading to increasingly high demands on travel time/effciency,punctuality,high-capacity urban mobility,etc.The passenger turnover grew rapidly,with Chinas urban rail passenger kilometers increasing by 77%between 2015 and 2019,representing a year-on-year g
87、rowth rate of 19%(CAMET,2020).While the demand went down during the Covid-19 pandemic,it made a robust recovery in 2023.This reveals the increasing need for longer distance commuting as urbanization develops and cities expand.Fast urbanization pushes an increasing travel demandIndividuals select the
88、ir preferred modes of transport based on factors such as affordability,travel effciency,comfort,and convenience.The imbalances in economic development and population distribution drive the need for a wide range of transport options.Imbalances of economy and population intensify demands for highly di
89、versified transport choicesBox 1The vast land areas,extensive north-south and east-west distances,varying altitude,and intricate landscapes pose challenges for transport in China.Meanwhile,each transport mode has its economic operation range.Cars,subways,buses,electric two-wheelers,bikes,and walking
90、 are suitable for different distances,ranging from tens of kilometers to hundreds of meters.For fights and railways,they serve even longer distances from hundreds to thousands of kilometers.Therefore,a comprehensive transport system is a must.Chinas vast land and diverse topography require a compreh
91、ensive transport system111.5 timesof London.The most crowed city in China is Shenzhen,with a population density that is Total Population and Density of Selected Major Cities in China and World9 Figure 4ChinaThe WorldPopulation of Chinese CitiesPopulation of Foreign CitiesPopulation DensityZhou(2022)
92、,Alfonso(2016),Shenyang Municipal Statistics Bureau and Shenyang Municipal Ethnic and Religious Affairs Bureau(2023),Party History Research Office of Shenyang Municipal Party Committee(2023),Liu(2023)Total Population(Million)Population Density(People/km2)ShanghaiBeijingChenduShenzhenXianShenyangToky
93、oNew YorkParisLondonBogota0554005,00010,00015,00020,00025,000980Mpeople may live in cities when urbanization goal is achieved,which will result in growing travel demands.The urbanization rate has increased from 55%in 2013 to 65%in 2022.The national aim is to reach 70%by 2030,meaning more
94、urban transit and more long-distance intercity travel.If compared with the urbanization rates of 80%in the UK and the U.S.,the demand could go even higher.Figure 5NBS(2023d)20Population and Urbanization Rate of China(2013-2022)Population(Billion)2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202
95、1 2022Urbanization Rate(%)706560555045403530302520Urban populationUrbanization rateRural population200BRevenue passenger kilometers(RPK)by urban rail occurred in China in 2019.96%came from subway(metro),which reached6 The U.S.metro statistics uses the definition of“heavy rail”,a term similar with“su
96、bway”and“metro”,which refers to electric railways on dedicated rights-of-way that transport large volumes of passengers.It mainly includes three types:(1)tracks in subway tunnels;(2)tracks on elevated structures;and(3)fenced ground-level tracks without road-crossings.7 Numbers of EU metro include bo
97、th metro and tram;other types of EU urban rail statistics is unavailable.191BRPK(U.S.+EU)1.7Urban Rail Passenger Turnover of China and U.S.(2018-2021)Figure 3Turnover(Billion RPK)250200150100500ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.ChinaU.S.20021MetroOther Types of Urban Rail4U.S.67Metro System Pass
98、enger Turnover of China,EU and U.S.(2018-2020)China Association of Metros(CAMET,2018-2021),APTA(2023),DG MOVE of EC(2022,Part 2.3)00Turnover(Billion RPK)20218China SubwayUS Heavy RailEU Metro&Tram108 Known as Hu huanyong line or Heihe-Tengchong line,divides the area
99、of China roughly into two parts with contrasting population densities.This line was drawn by a Chinese population geographer Mr.HU Huanyong in 1935.9 Year of city data:Bogota,2016;Tokyo,Paris and London,2019;New York,2020;Shanghai,Beijing,Chendu and Xian,2022;and Shenzhen,2023.Facts about China,EU a
100、nd U.S.Box 1Huhuanyong Line8Area:43%Population:94%HeiheTengchongTotal Area:9.6 million km2Max Distance:5,500kmNorth-SouthMax Distance:5,200kmEast-West Area:57%Population:6%PopulationDensity148people/km2SurfaceArea9.6million km2TotalGDP18,100billion USDGDPGDP PerCapita12,814USDUrbanizationRate65%Popu
101、lationDensity105people/km2SurfaceArea4.3million km2TotalGDP16,643billion USDGDPGDP PerCapita37,357USDUrbanizationRate75%PopulationDensity34people/km2SurfaceArea9.8million km2TotalGDP25,464billion USDGDPGDP PerCapita76,348USDUrbanizationRate83%Mountains33%AreaPlateaus26%Hills10%Basins19%Plains12%U.S.
102、EUMajority population livesin the plains and basins.13=1.3national average=2.4rural area in 2022Chinas urban area incomePer capita disposable income in China is geographically imbalanced:Zhejiangs statistic in 2022 was 2.6 times higher than that of Gansu,representing the highest and lowest among pro
103、vinces(NBS,2023b).China Average Annual Per Capita Disposable Income(2013-2022)Figure 7National Bureau of Statistics(NBS,2023a)Disposable Income(USD)UrbanNationalRural8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000200002215%of the population in China is over 65 years old.Ch
104、ina has become an aged society since 2021 and is on the path to join the super-aged in 2030s.The aging rate climbs very quickly,which places high requirements on transport system accessibility.WDI of WB(2023c),NBS(2023c)The Proportion of Population Aged 65 or Above(2013-2022)Figure 6Percent of the p
105、opulation with age above 652000022ChinaU.S.EUJanpanIndia35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Aged Society12105cities with population more thanChina has1MALLmonitored major cities have increasing commuting distances.In 2022,the average single trip commute distance and time in four m
106、ajor cities were:Beijing:11.7km,47 minutes;Shanghai:9.8km,40 minutes;Shenzhen:8.5km,36 minutes;Guangzhou:9.1km,38 minutes.14157.5times in 50 yearsUrban built-up areas expandedThe ever-expanding urban area has increased residents in cities and commuting distances,which collectively place higher deman
107、ds on the urban transit system.Average One-way Commuting Distance of 15 Chinese Major Cities(2019-2022)Figure 10Zhao et al.(2020),Wang et al.(2021,2022,2023)BeijingHangzhouChengduShanghaiChongqingXI,anZhengzhouGuangzhouWuhanNanjingQingdaoTianjinChangshaJinanShenzhen20022024681012Xiao(2014
108、),Chen(2022)Chinese City ClassificationFigure 8Remote Sensing Monitoring on Urban Expansion of Typical Chinese Cities(1972-2020)Figure 9 Distance/kmLiu et al.(2021)70547No.of Cities(2022)SuperCityLargeCityMediumCitySmallCity5-103-51-30.5-10.2-0.50.2MegaCity23451Popolation(Million)Class Si
109、ze10Classifcation CriteriaKEY DRIVERS for China to move towards zero emission urban mobilityThe primary drivers behind Chinas shift towards zero emission transport are carbon emission reduction for addressing climate change,pollutants reduction for improving air quality and public health and leapfro
110、gging its auto industry for sustainability and competitiveness.Urban mobility plays a critical role in achieving these goals.As transport demand stays high,the key challenge lies in decoupling economic growth from carbon and air pollutants emissions.Transport is a major source of carbon emissions in
111、 cities.For instance,transport sector contributed 34%of Beijings carbon emissions in 2019(Beijing Transport Institute BTI,2022),making it the second-largest contributor only after the buildings sector and surpassing the industrial sector.To reduce transport emissions of carbon and air pollutants in
112、cities,China has strived to electrify vehicles since 2009.Between 2015 and 2022,China has held the top position worldwide for EV production and sales for eight consecutive years.Traffc congestion is another pressing issue in densely populated Chinese big cities and is widely regarded as a serious“bi
113、g city disease”.In 2022,the average travel speed in the 36 selected major cities10 across China was only 22.7km/h during weekday peak hours.Eighty-nine percent of these cities suffered with moderate congestion with road vehicles moving at 18-25km/h(Wang et al.,2023).The development of public transit
114、 and active mobility not only provides an alternative to driving but also effectively reduces congestion and emissions.I-210 The thrity-six selected major cities include Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Tianjin,Chongqing,Dalian,Qingdao,Ningbo,Xiamen,and 26 provincial capital cities(Harbin,Changch
115、un,Shenyang,Shijiazhuang,Hohhot,Lanzhou,Yinchuan,Xian,Urumqi,Xining,Lhasa,Taiyuan,Jinan,Zhengzhou,Nanjing,Hangzhou,Fuzhou,Hefei,Wuhan,Changsha,Nanchang,Kunming,Guiyang,Chengdu,Nanning,and Haikou).9%national carbon emissions come from the transport sector.In 2022,carbon emissions of Chinas transport
116、sector was 946 million tons,accounting for about 9%of Chinas national total,in which,about 3%comes from passenger transport.76%of national NOx emissions come from the transport sector.Passenger transport is not the major contributor to PM2.5 nationally,but it contributes 12%of the NOx emissions and
117、concentrated in cities with a combined population of 910 million habitants.International Energy Agency(IEA,2021,2023c)Carbon Emissions from Chinas Transport Sector(2005-2022)Figure 111,2001,000800600400200010%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%200520062007200820092000002
118、2 Transports Share in Total(%)Emission(Mt)Transport EmissionTransport%in Chinas Total Carbon EmissionMinistry of Ecology and Environment of China(MEE,2022,2023)NOx Emissions by Sectors in China(2021)Figure 12Transport Sector,76%Freight,64%Passenger,12%Non-TransportSectors,24%161733%national populati
119、on,totalingApproximately464Mpeople,live in89cities where PM2.5 levels do not meet the current national standard of 35 g/m3.41%Approximatelynational population,totaling571Mpeople,live in 88cities where O3 levels do not meet the current national standard of 160 g/m3.More than one third of Chinas popul
120、ation lives in non-attainment areas,with either PM2.5 or O3 exceeding NAAQS in 2022Cities with high vehicle stock tend to have high concentration levels of PM2.5 and O3Population in China Exposed to PM2.5 in 2022(Million)Figure 1311Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs(IPE,2023)60
121、402004144642270.1No.of CitiesAnnual Avg.PM2.5 Concentration(g/m3)484055404550Population in China Exposed to Ozone in 2022(Million)Figure 1411IPE(2023)250200150100500No.of Cities599715571Annual Avg.Ozone Concentration(g/m3)80018020024%of national population and large vehicle sto
122、ck.56cities do not to meet both PM2.5 and O3 national standards.It is critical to electrify these vehicles and encourage more passengers to take buses,urban rails,and active mobility options.IPE(2023c)&Fuzhou UniversityVehicle Stock,PM2.5 and O3 Annual Avg.Concentrations in Cities of China(2022)Figu
123、re 15Avg.Vehicle Stock Per City in City Groups by Pollutants Concentration(Thousand)0002000Annual Avg.Concentration(g/m3)55-1010-15 15--120 PM2.50311 In Figure 13 and Figure 14,cities are grouped according to their annual average concentration(in g/m3)o
124、f PM2.5(ranging from 5,510,1015,1525,2535,to 35)and O3(ranging from 100,100-120,120-160,to160).The center point of each bubble in both figures represents the average PM2.5 or O3 concentration of the particular city group.1819Progress of zero emission urban mobility beyond cars in ChinaFor over two d
125、ecades,China has been making efforts to decouple the emissions from ridership.In addition to all efforts to clean up the car feet,the country has also progressively raised the fuel economy standards for commercial heavy-duty vehicles(HDVs)from Phase I to Phase IV,and the emission standards from Chin
126、a I to VI.In terms of structural development,public transit is the most prioritized,and active mobility2 is highly encouraged.Moreover,the electrifcation of buses,2/3 wheelers,and rail systems is propelling the transition towards zero emission transport.I-312 These reductions represent the arithmeti
127、cal averages of 12 defined grades in standards,which are based on the Gross Vehicle Weight Rating(GVWR)of commercial vehicles.The estimation does not take into account the market share of each GVWR category.Keep upgrading standards for fuel consumption limits,vehicle criteria air pollutants emission
128、s,and fuel quality 2021and 23%for coachesChina Phase III standard tightened the fuel consumption limits respectively byfor urban buses15.9%compared to Phase I.12China Phase IV standard for HDVs fuel consumption limits is waiting for offcial adoption.Phase IV standard for light duty commercial vehicl
129、es(LDVs)has fnished the public commenting of the frst draft.Jin and Wang(2011),Wen et al.(2014),Wang et al.(2018)Fuel Consumption Limits for HDVs Tightened under Phase I-III StandardsFigure 160-5-10-15-20-25-15.9%Reduction Rate(%)-10.5%-12.5%Urban BusCoachChina Phase l-ll (07/2012-07/2014)China Phas
130、e Il-lll (07/2014-07/2019)97%reduction in NOx emissions and aChina VI standard requires a94%drop in PM from HDVs,as compared to the earlier China I standard.Public transit has gained growing importance in China.In 2004,the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development(MOHURD)issued the“Opinions on
131、 Giving Priority to the Development of Urban Public Transportation”.Moreover,bus electrifcation has been a priority since the 2009“Ten Cities One Thousand Electric Vehicles Pilot Program,with cumulative purchase subsidies around 200 billion RMB($3.36 billion).13 The government provides substantial s
132、upport for public transit,as the result,the public transit becomes cleaner despite the growing scale,although since 2023 China has stopped the NEV purchase subsidy.13 The average exchange rate of 2010-2022 was used here,which was 6.55 RMB to$1.14 Both bus operation subsidy and subway operation subsi
133、dy are the sum of local subsidies nationwide.The public transit plays an increasingly bigger rolea:Zhou(2023),b:Shang and Yu(2023),c:Jia(2023),d:ThePaper(2023).About 77.2%of the buses on the road have already been electrifed.By the end of 2022,over 98.7%of newly purchased or replaced buses are NEVs1
134、.It is evident that the transit bus feet on the road will achieve full zero emissions in the coming few years.Major National Fiscal Incentives for Public TransitTable 173%of revenue urban passenger volume in cities with the service in China.Bus and urban rail collectively account for The share of ur
135、ban rail rose by 17%while bus dropped by 13%from 2012 to 2022.Chinas Urban Transit Structure by Revenue Ridership(2013-2022)Figure 19MOT(2014-2023,Part 3.6)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%of Passenger Trips2000022BusUrban railTaxiFerry Boat2223Reductions of HDV Emis
136、sion Limits on NOx and PM under China I-VI StandardsFigure 1799%in diesel and gasoline.Sulfur content is reduced by overChina has adopted lead-free gasoline nationwide since early 2000s.The sulfur content in diesel and gasoline have both signifcantly dropped from 2000 ppm and 1500 ppm to 10 ppm,comp
137、lying with China I-V fuel quality standards,which is by far the most stringent globally.Reductions of Sulfur Limits on Diesel and Gasoline under China I-V Fuel Quality StandardsFigure 18TransportP(2018)Diesel Reduction in GasolineReduction in DieselGasolineScience and Technology Standards Department
138、(2001),Environmental Standards Institute and Jinan Automobile Test Center(2005),Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences et al.(2018).Reduction%of NOxNOxReduction%of PMPMMajor IncentivesVehicle purchase tax exemption for all NEVsPurchase subsidy for all NEVsBus operation subsidySubway oper
139、ation subsidy14 2215100c 110d200a200bCentral GovernmentCentral GovernmentLocal GovernmentLocal Government-2022in 2019in 2020/Cumulative Amount(Billion RMB)Annual Average(Billion RMB)ProviderPeriod0.40.360.320.280.240.20.160.120.080.04000-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80-90-100I2000II2
140、003III2007IV2010V2012VI-a2021VI-b2023I2000II2003III2007IV2010V2012VI-a2021VI-b2023-58.3%-72.2%-91.7%-91.7%-97.2%-97.2%-12.5%-37.5%-56.3%-75.0%-94.3%-94.3%PM Limit(g/kWh)NOx Limit(g/kWh)Reduction Rate(%)200006004002000200006004002000-40-46-52-58-64-70-76-82
141、-88-94-100I2002II2003III2010IV2013V2017I2003II2006III2009IV2013V2017-75%-83%-98%-99.5%-47%-67%-90%-97%-99.3%Sulfur Reduction(%)Sulfur Limit(ppm)Sulfur Limit(ppm)242564%in only one decade.The share of fossil fuel buses in the bus feet decreased by In 2013,diesel,gasoline and LNG/CNG buses made up 87%
142、of the bus feet,but by 2022,their total share had plummeted to 23%while NEVs surged to 77%,making a strong contrast.74%of Beijing urban passenger transport in 2019.Green mobility15 accounts forThe Mix of Transport Modes in Beijing(2012-2021)Figure 20Share of Transport Mode(%)0 2012 2013 2
143、014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Active Mobility(Walk&Bicycle)Green Mobility(Active Mobility&Public Transit)BicycleWalkUrban RailCarBusPublic Transit(Bus&Urban Rail)BTI(2022b)bus routes across China equalsof the Earths EquatorBy the end of 2022,there were 703,200 transit buses running on a netw
144、ork of 78,000 routes,covering almost all the cities in China.1.7Mkm41 rounds53%fossil fuel and PHEV buses comply with China V and VI vehicle emission standards.China retired almost all the old buses compliant with China I and II emission standards.Among the remaining fossil fuel and PHEV buses,50%an
145、d 3%meet China V and VI standards,while 18%and 29%meet China III and IV standards.Note:The total percentage may be less than 100%due to rounding and the category of“others”,which refers to fuels with a share less than 1%.EF China Analysis(2023)Fossil Fuel and PHEV Bus Stock by Emission Standards(202
146、1)Figure 235.8%PHEVOther11.2%LNG/CNG11.8%Diesel6.6%LNG/CNG10.7%Diesel6.2%Diesel20.5%LNG/CNG2.3%PHEV23.3%PHEVOtherOther29%ChinaIV50%ChinaV18%ChinaIII3%ChinaVITransit Bus Stock by Fuel Types in China(2013-2022)Figure 22Share by Fuel Type(%)MOT(2014-2023,Part 2.5)0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2
147、018 2019 2020 2021 2022LNG/CNGGasolineFossil FuelPHEVDieselBEVNEVNumber and Length of Transit Bus Routes in China(2013-2022)Figure 21MOT(2014-2023,Part 1.6&2.5)06004002000807060504030202000212022Total Length of Bus Lines No.of Bus LinesLength(Th
148、ousand Km)No.of Lines(Thousand)15 Green mobility consists of walking,bicycles,buses and urban rails.83%of global BEV bus sales.With the worlds 1/4 bus feet,China runsIn 2022,China accounted for 96%of global BEV buses.16 Urban public transit includes transit bus,ferry boat,and urban rail.2627Micro mo
149、bilitys zero emission transition has entered a new stage of optimization.Micro mobility refers to short-distance transport provided by low-speed and light-weight vehicles such as human-powered and motorized 2/3Ws.In China,micro mobility transport is mainly composed of bicycles and 2/3Ws(E2/3Ws and I
150、CE2/3Ws).Eighty percent of Chinese favor micro mobility as their primary choices of urban mobility,revealing its signifcance in the transition toward zero emission urban mobility.Bicycles are an eco-friendly mode of transport,making it crucial for steering urban mobility towards a greener future.Chi
151、na has been actively promoting bicycle sharing program by improving bicycle lanes and adding dedicated parking spaces.With the introduction of dockless shared bicycles17(hereafter referred as“shared bicycles”)in China around 2015,the travel rate of bicycle travel doubled from its lowest point,result
152、ing in the deployment scale of 23 million shared bicycles and a greater presence of bicycles on the streets.Chinas efforts to promote cycling go beyond merely expanding the scale of bicycle feets.Since 2017,local governments have been urging shared bicycle operators to strategically deploy and sched
153、ule bicycles based on travel demands,while also placing limits on the size of the feets.This aims to enhance the turnover rate of individual shared bicycles,serving a larger urban mobility demand with fewer bicycles.Taking Beijing as an example,the daily turnover rate increased from 1.1 times per da
154、y in the frst half of 2019 to 3.3 times per day by the end of 2022.The focus of shared bicycle market is shifting from scaling up the bicycle numbers to higher turnover rates per bicycleFollowing Chinas urban motorcycle restrictions,E2/3Ws experienced rapid growth as substitutes for ICE2/3Ws,with ov
155、er 84%of 2/3Ws now being electric.However,due to the lack of technical standards and regulations at the early stages of E2/3Ws development,a majority of E2/3Ws on the road are non-compliant with safety risks.For example,E2Ws became heavier and faster,resembling motorcycles.Occasional collisions may
156、result from their quiet operations combined with unpredictable driving in vehicle lanes.Since 2019,China has introduced new national mandatory technical standards for E2/3Ws products with clear product defnitions and categories,enabling authorities to manage E2/3Ws under existing regulations to redu
157、ce accidents.Non-compliant products will be required to quit the market within a specifed period.These standards not only address the issues with product classifcation and defnitions,but also encourage product improvements from the perspectives of safety and environment protection.For instance,the n
158、ew standards for e-bicycles now mandate a maximum weight of 55kg,encouraging manufacturers to adopt lithium batteries,which have higher energy density,lighter weight,and more importantly,pose no risk of leaking harmful substances like lead sulfate and sulfur dioxide.In 2022,the penetration rate of l
159、ithium batteries in the E2Ws sales market reached 25%,nearly doubled since 2018.Undoubtedly,this rate is expected to continue rising and the current widely used lead-acid batteries will be phased out.Two and three wheelers have successfully embraced electrification and are now committed to deliverin
160、g high-quality products and sustainable development17 Since 2015,dockless shared bicycles have replaced docked bicycles as the predominant part of Chinas shared bicycle program.Develop the urban rail for passenger transportThe rapid expansion of urban rail,which is 100%electrifed,has replaced a cons
161、iderable amount of road transport.26%urban transit16 trips in cities with the service are made by urban rail.The share of urban rail passenger volume increased from 11%in 2015 to 26%in 2022.Urban Rail Ridership of China(2013-2022)Figure 25MOT(2014-2023,Part 3.6),CAMET(2013-2023)2000100806
162、0402002000022Passenger VolumeShare of Urban Rails in Total Public Transit Passenger VolumePassenger TurnoverTurnover and Volume(Billion RPK or Trips)Urban Rail Share in Total Transit(%)0%3%6%9%12%15%18%21%24%27%30%Sales and Stock of BEV Buses in China,EU and the Rest
163、 of the World(2013-2022)Figure 24IEA(2023b),Bloomberg(2018)20000222000022800700600500400300200%85%80%75%70%SalesStockChinaRest of the WorldChinas Share in Global BEV Bus SalesChinas Share in Global BEV Bus StockEUNumber of
164、Buses(Thousand)World Share(%)80%of the Chinese respondents prefer 2/3Ws for urban mobility,ranking the highest willingness in the world.39%of the size in 2017,yet servedIn 2022,Beijings shared bicycles feet was 19times more trips.The government has optimized shared bicycle deployment.From 2017 to 20
165、22,cities with shared bicycle doubled,but number of deployed bicycles decreased by 35%.18 Figures may not sum to 100%because of rounding.Heineke et al.(2021),EF China Analysis(2023)UKU.S.GermanyFranceItalyChinaGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%53%47%49%32%20%43%47%45%55%52%51%68%80%56%Micro MobilityMicro Mobi
166、lity in ChinaOther Forms of Transport in ChinaOther Forms of TransportMicro Mobility(Mainly Composed by 2/3Ws)Preference by Country(2021)Figure 2618Shared Bicycles Deployment and Operations(2017-2022)Figure 272829500M2/3Ws,with overChina has around84%being E2/3Ws.Most local governments have establis
167、hed transition deadline for non-compliant E2/3Ws by the end of 2023.However,in areas with weak supervision,non-compliant E2/3Ws may still exist.25%The penetration rate of lithium batteries in new E2Ws sales has reached Market Penetration of Lithium Battery-powered E2Ws(2018-2022)Figure 29iResearch(2
168、023)Proportion of Lithiumion Battery-Powered E2Ws in Annual Sales(%)25200022Stocks of 2/3Ws in China(2022)Figure 28EF China analysis(2023)Non-compliant 2/3WsExpress service oriented:60millionPassenger oriented:10millionE2W mopeds&motorcyclesICE2W mopeds&motorcyclesE3W mopeds&mo
169、torcyclesICE3W mopeds&motorcycles3Ws2WsEICECompliant 2/3Ws3Ws2WsEICE Motor:80millionNon-MotorNon-compliant 2Ws+E-Bicycles350millionE-bicyclesNo.of Shared Bicycles in Operation in China(Million)No.of Cities with Service(County-Level of Above)Pei(2020),Wei(2022),and EF China Analysis(2023)No.of Cities
170、 with Service(County-Level and Above)No.of Shared Bicycles in Operation in China(Million)4003002009202228211470Trips Serviced by Shared Bicycle in Beijing(Million)No.of Shared Bicycles in Operation in Beijing(Million)No.of Shared Bicycles in Operation in Beijing(Million)Trips Serviced by
171、Shared Bicycle in Beijing(Million)2.41.81.20.60500200TRANSIT BUSPART IIEV BUS2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 703,200 ransit buses are in service by 2022=9.7 U.S.In China,Chinas transit bus feet grew by 55%during the decade.Transit Bus Stock of China and U.S.(2
172、011-2020)Figure 30MOT(2014-2023,Part 2.5),APTA(2023,Table 21).Vehicle Stock(Thousand)8007006005004003002001000ChinaU.S.WHATS the scale and emission of transit bus system in China?As the most cost-effcient and fexible form of public transport,transit buses are highly popular and widely used throughou
173、t China.The country,which initiated its frst bus route in 1906,has successfully established and operated the worlds largest and cleanest bus system.II-1Over just one decade,China has signifcantly reduced the use of fossil fuel buses.The total share of diesel,gasoline,and LNG/CNG buses in the feet ha
174、d plummeted to 23%by 2022,from 87%in 2013(Figure 22).Moreover,China owns the worlds largest NEV bus market and feet,no matter BEV,PHEV or FCV.Continuous efforts have been made to enhance fuel economy,lower vehicle emissions,and improve fuel quality to world-class standards.Limits on fuel consumption
175、 per 100km of new coaches and buses decreased by 23%and 16%between 2012 and 2019;NOx and PM emissions of new HDVs decreased by 94%and 97%between 2000 and 2021;and the sulfur content in diesel and gasoline both reduced by over 99%to 10ppm by 2017(Figure 16,17&18).China is one of the pioneers who prac
176、tice Bus Rapid Transit(BRT).By 2020,over seven thousand kilometers BRT networks were in operation across China(Figure 34).69BChinas bus ridership reached Chinas bus mileage reached passenger trips=15 U.S.km35B=9 U.S.3132Passenger Trips and Vehicle Revenue Kilometers(Billion)Bus Ridership and Vehicle
177、 Mileage of China and U.S.(2019)Figure 31MOT(2020,Part 3.6),APTA(2023,Table 1&8).706050403020100Passenger VolumeVehicle MileageChinaU.S.15X9X77%of the transit bus feet are electrifed.By 2022,the shares of BEV and PHEV in total transit bus stock were 65%and 12%,respectively.The EV share of EU bus fee
178、t is about 1%(European Automobile Manufacturers Association ACEA,2022).19 Other fuel types include hydrogen,dual fuel,and trolly.BRT lines in China is in service by 2019BRT system length increased 123%from 2,753km to 6,150km in six years.6,150kmTransit Bus of China by Fuel Type19(2022)Figure 32MOT(2
179、014-2023,Part 2.5)NEV77%BEV65%PHEV12%LNG/CNG13.2%Gasoline0.5%Diesel8.6%Other1%BRT Ridership and Growth in China and U.S.(2014-2019)Figure 35MOT(2015-2021,Part 3.6),APTA(2023,Table 1)500025000Ridership(Million)Growth Rate(%)-30-20-China Growth RateUS Growth RateChina Passenger
180、TripsUS Passenger Trips200.7Bpassenger trips in 2019.BRT of China carried=27 U.S.3334MOT(2014-2023,Part 1.6&3.6)Length of RoutesPassenger TripsBRT Development in China(2013-2019)Figure 34500025000Ridership(Million)Length of Lines(Km)8000700060005000400030002000100002
181、0001995.7%BEVs:PHEVs:Chinas share in the worlds NEV bus stock:98.9%Global BEV and PHEV Bus Stock(2022)Figure 33IEA(2023b)China98.9%EU1.6%Rest of the world2.7%China95.7%BEVChina95.7%China98.9%Rest of the world0.3%EU 0.8%PHEV3536II-2WHY does China prioritize the zero emission tra
182、nsformation of buses?Signifcant potentials of BRT systems exist.Champion Cities of China fall behind Bogoda by BRT indicators:Guangzhou:38%by throughputXiamen:32%by speedBeijing:27%by lines&68%by stockBus is one of the best choices for mass urban transit when taking into considerations on air pollut
183、ion control,congestion mitigation,fnancial capacity,social fairness,and operational fexibility.Besides,buses could be the pilot vehicles for new technology demonstrations,which can help scale up the zero emission transition of other vehicle categories.Like other countries,China prioritizes bus devel
184、opment mainly because it is naturally greener as a mode of public transport.On average,one bus is capable of replacing at least 30 cars on the road(ACEA,2022).Due to this low occupancy of roads per passenger,developing buses can free up road space and help ease traffc congestion.It will also reduce
185、fuel consumption,carbon footprint,and air pollution per passenger.In 2019 Length of BRT lines:4.4km per million peopleNo.of BRT vehicles:6.7 buses per million people=4 U.S.=5 U.S.Figure 36BRT Lines and Vehicles Per Million Inhabitants of China and U.S.(2013-2019)MOT(2014-2020,Part 1.6&2.5),APTA(2023
186、,Table 21&50)No.of Km/VehicleU.S.China200000182019Length of BRT Lines(Km per M People)No.of BRT Buses(Bus per M People)BRT Scale and Operation in Select Cities Figure 372004006008004060801001200No.of Vehicle&Hourly ThroughputLength of Lines&Spee
187、dPeak Hour Speed(Km/h)No.of Vehicle(BRT Bus)Hourly PeakThroughput(Hundred People/Direction)Length of Lines(Km)BogotaLos AngelesMexico CityXiamenBeijingGuangzhouFar East Mobility(2023)76543210Theoretical carrying capacity:30cars1busTransit bus is a green transport mode by natureBuses play an importan
188、t role in new technology demonstrationsAs a public mobility service provider,the transit bus operation company maintains close ties with the government.Government subsidies are crucial for supporting bus purchases and operations.Therefore,bus operation companies often stick to the governments guidan
189、ce.In light of these,buses have always been at the forefront,leading the way in implementing mandatory end-of-life vehicle rules and emission standards,as well as piloting demonstrations of cutting-edge technologies.China launched this program in 2009 and deployed over 27,400 NEVs in 25 pilot cities
190、 within three years,84%of which are public service NEVs,particularly buses(China Automotive News,2013).Three types of new technologies,including BEV,PHEV and FCV were encouraged.Chinas EV market took off afterwards.“Ten Cities One Thousand Electric Vehicles”Pilot ProgramVGI and orderly charging allo
191、w EVs as responsive mobile energy sources to either take energy from and/or supply energy to the power grid when needed.China has set up policies and pilot projects to support VGI,especially in regions with rapidly deployed EVs,like Shanghai,Beijing,and Guangdong province.For instance,Beijing has a
192、VGI pilot program for BEV transit buses,fully shifting bus charging to off-peak hours.It demonstrates the value of VGI operations for peak shaving(Li et al.,2022).Orderly Charging and Vehicle-Grid Integration(VGI)3738In order to meet different transit demands,China introduced a new model of customiz
193、ed buses,which is between the traditional buses and taxis.People who work and live in the same area with similar commute needs can group together to order a customized bus.The route,frequency,and schedule are tailored to meet this groups specifc needs.Besides routes designed for daily commute,new pr
194、oducts are emerging.For example,Shanghai launched medical-themed customized buses in August 2022 to take people to their desired hospitals and help make doctor appointments on the bus.A new“bus pooling”model was also launched in Shenzhen in July 2022.By 2021,94%of provinces,autonomous regions,and mu
195、nicipalities-including Beijing,Hebei,and Shanxi-had customized bus routes,totaling over 5,400 routes that generated 180 million passenger trips annually(Sun&Deng,2021).Customized BusMaaS aims to provide an alternative for private cars that may be as convenient,more sustainable,less congested,cheaper
196、,and with larger transport capacity.MaaS integrates different forms of transport and related services into one comprehensive and on-demand mobility service.MaaS offers end-users the added value by letting them access mobility through a single application and payment.To meet a customers request,a Maa
197、S operator provides different transport options,including public transit,active modes such as walking and cycling,car/bike sharing,taxis,car rentals,or a mix.Beijing launches Chinas frst MaaS platform,which includes buses,subways,shared bicycles,ride-hailing,walking,and driving(MaaS Alliance,2023).M
198、obility as a Service(MaaS)ACEA(2022)II-3HOW does the policy motivate the changes?Policy plays a vital role for the zero emission transit buses,both strategically and tactically.3940Beijing:the pioneer city for zero emission busesFigure 38Power Curve of A Bus Charging Station in Beijing Before and Af
199、ter Piloting VGIAfter Piloting VGIBefore Piloting VGI0250300350400450Power(Kw)20:0022:0000:0002:0004:0006:0008:00Li et al.(2022)Screenshot of Beijing MaaS AppBy 2022,Beijing had 1,524 bus charging point distributed at 225 bus terminals(Li,2023).Beijing launched the MaaS platform in 2019.B
200、y May 2023,more than 30 million people had registered for the platform.It serves no less than six million passenger trips daily,saving at least 400,000 tons of carbon emissions and facilitating the trade of 120,000 tons of voluntary carbon credits(Fang&Ran,2023).Beijing launched Chinas frst customiz
201、ed bus route in 2013.By 2022,it had 396 customized routes,providing personalized transport service for 20,000 citizens daily and helping them save 30%commute time(Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport,2023).Beijing also arranges customized school buses(BTI,2023).Beijing piloted one of Chinas frs
202、t bus VGI projects at a transit bus charging station in 2021(Li et al.,2022).Beijing developed 1005km DBLs by the end of 2022(BTI,2023).Beijing was the frst batch of pilot cities in Chinas“Ten Cities One Thousand Electric Vehicles”Pilot Program,starting with 50 BEV buses in 2010(Zhang,2010).By 2022,
203、over 90%of Beijings bus feet has been electrifed.Box 2Provide fiscal incentives to support electric transit busesThe public transport priority strategy establishes fnancing mechanisms for transit service providers,including a set of subsidies and preferential taxation policies.Accumulatively,around
204、200 billion RMB in purchase subsidies were provided through the“Ten Cities One Thousand Electric Vehicles”Pilot Program and afterward(Zhou,2023).In 2019,the government provided subsidies totaling 100 billion RMB to support nationwide transit bus operations(Jia,2023).For all public transport operator
205、s,the value-added tax is exempted.NEV transit buses receive exemptions from vehicle and vessel registration tax and vehicle purchase tax as well.Since 2012,NEV buses have been exempted from vehicle and vessel registration tax.This policy was updated three times in 2015,2018,and 2022 to increasingly
206、tighten criteria on fuel effciency,mileage range,and emission reduction so as to further encourage technology development.Since 2014,NEV buses received a vehicle purchase tax exemption.Tax exemptions for all NEVs(buses,passenger cars,trucks,etc.)totaled 200 billion RMB from 2014 to 2022,and are esti
207、mated to reach 115 billion RMB in 2023 alone and 520 billion RMB between 2024 and 2027(Zhou,2023).Preferential taxation policies save spending for NEV ownersFavorable subsidies for procurement and operations of NEV buses are provided to partially offset the high cost of NEV buses.Subsidies for procu
208、rement from central and local governments:From 2010 to 2022,national NEV purchase subsidies are estimated to reach 200 billion RMB in total(Shang&Yu,2023).Municipal governments of many large cities also provided additional local subsidies.For example,since 2015 Beijing has provided the local purchas
209、e subsidy at the same level as the national(Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission BMSTC,2015),and since 2018 half the ratio(Li&Yao,2020).Subsidy for operations:A key policy is transitioning bus operation subsidy from oil to electricity.In 2015,the central government began phasing out i
210、ts“oil subsidy”and shifting to an“electricity subsidy”.This incentivized the initial market for BEV and PHEV buses in China.By 2019,the fuel subsidy fund for fossil fuel buses had been reduced by 60%,compared to 2013 level.Besides,operating subsidies for NEV buses are provided on a yearly per vehicl
211、e basis(Ministry of Finance MOF et al.,2015).Many large cities have also provided local subsidies for the operations of NEV buses.For example,Beijing provides an annual operating subsidy of 80,000 RMB for each qualifed BEV bus(Zhev,2015).National and local subsidies helped electric buses kick offEle
212、vate public transport as a national priorityChina has established public transport as a national priority through institutionalized policies and specifc regula-tions.The frst national level initiative on proposing public transport as a social welfare measure tied to national economic progress and li
213、velihood improvement was the“Opinions on Giving Priority to the Develop-ment of Urban Public Transport”,issued by the former Ministry of Construction(now MOHURD)in 2004(MOC,2004).In 2005,General Offce of the State Council circulated this opinion and enhanced it with 22 recommendations focused on pub
214、lic transport planning,infrastructure,operations,rights of way,incentives,and supervision(MOHURD,2005).Guiding Opinions on Giving Priority to the Public Transport in Urban Development by the State Council offcially elevated public transit priority as a national strategy(State Council,2013a).MOHURD a
215、nd MOT issued opinions on economic policies(MOHURD,2006)and other implementation measures(MOT,2013).In 2007,Legislative Affairs Offce of State Council started to solicit suggestions on Urban Public Transport Regulations/Directives.This marked the frst legislative effort to formally clarify the publi
216、c interest nature of Chinas public transport system.MOT is actively pushing for the offcial release of these regulations in 2023.Establish transit buses as pioneers and leaders with quantified goals in reducing carbon and air pollutants emissionsAir quality improvement has been a major driving force
217、 to scale up NEV buses in cities since 2013.This impetus has been further strengthened by carbon peaking and neutrality goals.In 2013,China implemented the Action Plan for Prevention and Control of the Air Pollution(State Council,2013b),which mandated that at least 60%of new and replaced buses in Be
218、ijing,Shanghai,and Guangzhou must be NEVs or clean fuel vehicles.In 2018,China released Three-year Action Plan for Fighting to Win the Battle Against Air Pollution(State Council,2013a),which mandated at lease 80%of new and replaced buses,sanitary trucks,post offce trucks,taxis,light logistic trucks
219、to be NEVs in key air pollution areas.It further required 100%new and replaced buses in municipalities and provincial capitals in these key areas to be NEVs.In 2021,State Council released the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030(State Council,2021),which re-emphasized developing green
220、and low-carbon public transport and electrifying vehicles used for urban public services.In 2022,China reduced the share of diesel buses in the transit bus feet to only 9%,while ramping up the share of BEV buses to 65%(Figure 32).4142Cities offer local subsidies to support preferred technologies.Non
221、-fscal incentives are used to achieve optimal results with minimal effort.DBLs were designed to give transit buses priority on the road.They are exclusively for bus use during specifc hours,such as the morning rush hours from 7-9 am.Non-bus vehicles are discouraged from using the lanes,with penaltie
222、s for violations.In June 2023,Ministry of Public Security(MPS)made amendments to optimize the effciency of DBL while maintaining the right-of-way of transit buses.The adjustments include modifying time slots for exclusive bus lane use,allowing non-public vehicles access during non-exclusive hours,an
223、d potentially permitting other public vehicles such as shuttle buses and school buses to share DBLs during exclusive hours(Ren,2023).Dedicated Bus Lanes(DBLs)provide important non-fiscal incentives5from 2013 to 2022.The length of DBLs grows times toBeijing alone has 1005km DBLs by the end of 2020(BT
224、I,2023).19,900kmMOT(2014-2020,Part 1.6)20,00015,00010,0005,0000Length(km)Length of Dedicated Bus Lanes in China(2013-2022)Figure 40 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 4344NEV purchase subsidies are provided for passenger cars,buses,trucks,and other qualifed vehicles by technical crite
225、ria to encourage technology advancement.Operating subsidies are also provided for NEV buses with an annual mileage of 30,000 km or above between 2015 and 2019.200BRMB20 It was provided in the form of electricity subsidy,which was shifted from the oil subsidy provided since 2010.MOF(2013,2014,2016,20
226、19a,2019b,2020),MOF,Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST),et al.(2015),MOF and MOT(2009),MOF et al.(2018),MOF,MIIT,et al.(2015).National Subsidy Criteria for NEV Bus Purchase(2009-2022)Figure 39Criteria of Major National NEV Bus Operation Subsidy20(2015-2019)MaxMin017201
227、820000202020022BEVPHEVFCV002020200002020212022BEVPHEVFCVSubsidy/Bus(RMB)An
228、nual Subsidy/Bus(RMB)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000090,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000Subsidies in Beijing,Shanghai,and Shenzhen Table 2 a:Zhev(2015),b:BMSTC(2015),c:Li&Yao(2020),d:Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission(2021).BEV buses:80,000 BEV:90,000-
229、140,000PHEV:10,000FCV:70,000BEV:90,000*Shenzhen only subsidize BEV busesBased on annualoperating mileageShenzhenBeijingShanghaiSince 2015:Same of national subsidy(BMSTC,2015)Since 2018:Half of national subsidy(Li et al.,2020)BEV and PHEV buses:350,000to 500,000FCV:800,000Purchases(RMB/vehicle)Operat
230、ions(RMB/vehicle/year)(2021-2023)4521 Based on the definitions in Footnote 4 and 6,“urban rail”in China,excluding the commuter rail and tram which account for 12%and 5%of the system length in 2022,is similar to“metro”globally and“heavy rail”in the U.S.Chinas light rail is not same as its U.S.counter
231、part.It is more similar to the international“metro”or“subway”based on standards in China.This principle also applies to Chinas monorail,maglev and APM.PART IIIURBAN RAIL211.346 mmWHAT makes urban rail favored over road transport?Initially,bus development took off before urban rails in China due to t
232、he countrys less developed economy.But with rapid economic growth and urban expansion,travel distances increased and higher speed and better effciency were needed.Also,the exploding urban population required higher-capacity mobility to handle massive passengers.Buses could not meet the demand for sp
233、eed,reliability and capacity anymore.With over 900 million urban residents,traffc congestion has become a huge problem.In 2022,road vehicles in 89%of 36 major cities across China move at 18-25km/h due to congestion(Wang&Cao,2023).Urban rails pull ahead as the frst choice over struggling road transpo
234、rt.III-1Urban rail has magnificent transport capacity 7065605550454035302520151050 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Urban Rail Daily Ridership Nationwide and in Major Cities in China(2013-2022)Figure 42CAMET(2013-2023)National TotalShanghaiBeijingGuangzhouShenzhenDaily Ridership(Mill
235、ion Passenger Trips)464755cities in China have urban rails,butridership happened in48%4major cities:Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen.53Mpassenger trips daily in 2022.Chinas urban rail transportedDaily Ridership of Urban Rail,Bus and Taxi in China(2022)Figure 41MOT(2022)Daily Ridership(Passeng
236、er Trips Per Vehicle)Daily Ridership(Passenger Trips)53 million UrbanRail97 million Bus57 million Taxi13884543Shanghai10Murban rails are among the global busiest,with daily ridership over 22 The number covers both Tokyo Metro and Toei Subway23 The number covers MTA New York City Transit,Port Authori
237、ty Trans-Hudson Corporation,and Staten Island Rapid TransitUrban rails are faster and more reliableUrban rail is preferred by city dwellers as it allows passengers to travel farther and faster with high punctuality.24 DTI measures the time from one train fully leaves the platform until the next trai
238、n starts moving in.The interval between trains can be even shorter than the DTI.CAMET(2020),Statista(2022),MTA New York City Transit(2020),Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation(PATH,2020),APTA(2020).Beijingand4849Faster than road.Urban rail in China averages 36km/h(CAMET,2023),about 58.6%faster th
239、an the average travel speed in the 36 selected major cities and 44%-100%faster in medium congestion cities(Wang&Cao,2023).1High frequency.By 2022,the average departing time interval(DTI)24 is shorter than 290 seconds.Approximately 25%of lines depart within 180 seconds.The interval is shortened to un
240、der 120 seconds during rush hours in megacities(CAMET,20132023);2High punctuality.The average punctuality remains above 99.9%in years(MOT,2023a);3Long operation hours.On average,Chinas urban rails operate 17 hours daily,up to 18.7 hours in Beijing(CAMET,20132023);4Enhances habitability.Urban rail ha
241、s become an indicator of the quality of life,attraction,competitiveness,and prosperity in cities.A new model,known as“rail plus property”(R+P)or“integrated hub station development”,helps to recover costs and enable fnancial sustainability.5The 10 Busiest Urban Rails in China and Comparison with Glob
242、al Cities(2019)Figure 43Daily Ridership(Million Passenger Trips)BeijingTokyo22ShanghaiGuangzhouNew York23ShenzhenChengduWuhanNanjingChongqingXianHangzhou02468101210.910.810.69.14.95.74.23.43.22.92.61.8HOW BIG and FAST does urban rail develop?China leads the world in urban rail infrastructure,especia
243、lly the network length and number of cities with urban rail.Metro systems dominates Chinas urban rail,comprising 88%of length and 95%of passenger turnover.From 2013 to 2022,the number of cities,lines,stations and vehicles with urban rail grew robustly at 190%,261%,280%,and 336%,respectively(CAMET,20
244、142023).III-225 Numbers of China include subway only,instead of all urban rail systems.505130%world metro vehicles and stations are in China.AboutBy the end of 2020,China had 44,000 metro vehicles running through over 3,800 metro stations,accounting for 32%and 30%of the worlds total,respectively.No.
245、of VehiclesNo.of Stations&System LengthCAMET(2021),UITP Secretariat(2022),APTA(2023,Table 21,49,51)WorldEuropeU.S.China020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000180,000160,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00018,00016,000Number of Metro Vehicles,Stations and Length in China,Europe,U.S.and W
246、orld(2020)Figure 44No.of Metro VehidesNo.of Metro StationsLength(Km)CAMET(2021,2023),UITP Secretariat(2022),APTA(2023,Table 21,49,51),World Population Review(WPR,2023a,2023b),Office of the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census(as cited in Chen,2022),Liu(2023)W
247、orld Metro Regional DistributionTable 32020WorldN/A5223421450Europe2022U.S.ChinaNumber of CitiesPopulation Served(million)China25HOW does urban rail contribute to ease the traffic and reduce emissions?With all the advantages mentioned above,urban rails have been picking up more of the tra
248、ffc load and easing the burden on the road.In 2022,urban rails took 26%of Chinas urban transit passenger volume,increasing from just 9%in 2013.The increase mainly comes from replacing the use of cars and transit buses.III-352532.5%annual drop in private car vehicle kilometers traveled(VKT).Beijing,S
249、hanghai,and Chengdu have seen over a Even as Chinas mega cities see their population,urban built-up areas and vehicle stock numbers go up,private car mileage is actually decreasing steadily.Development of urban rails brings down the mileage of carsAnnual Driving Mileage for Private Cars in Chinas Me
250、ga CitiesFigure 45EF China analysis,Xiamen Environment Protection Vehicle Emission Control Technology Center,BTI,Shanghai Urban Rural Construction and Transportation Development Research Institute,Chengdu VECC BeijingShanghaiChengdu20022000082007200620052001220112003
251、20102020Mileage/kmIII-4WHAT kind of policies enable such development?As an essential part of public transport,urban rail benefts from the national strategy to put public transport as the priority.Besides,the encouragement on Transit-Oriented Development(TOD)as well as muti-functional integrated tran
252、sport hubs also create an enabling environment for urban rail development.5455Urban rails are zero emission because it is 100%electrifiedUrban rails consume energy for traction and non-traction purposes like air conditioning,lighting and platform screen door system.The energy effciency of urban rail
253、 stays stable between 0.1 to 0.2 kWh/person kilometer(MOT,2023a).EF China analysis,Xiamen Environment Protection Vehicle Emission Control Technology Center,BTI,Shanghai Urban Rural Construction and Transportation Development Research Institute,Chengdu VECC Top Cities Share in Chinas Vehicle Stock an
254、d Metro MileageFigure 46020406080100Top 45Top 70Top 100Vehicle StockMetro MileageMarket Share of Vehicle Stock and Metro Mileage(%)In many cities,TOD is practiced as“Development Oriented Transit”or“Transit Adjacent Development”,where the transit systems and the surrounding development are independen
255、tly planned with poor connectivity.Shenzhen Metro Group(SMP)distinguished itself by introducing mainland Chinas frst R+P TOD model with the development of Qianhai Depot Station in 2008.In this case,SMP maximized the utility of depot land for commercial property and social housing development alongsi
256、de metro infrastructure.This enabled Shenzhen Metro to become fnancially self-sustained and reduce its reliance on government subsidies.SMP has successfully applied the R+P TOD model to 34 metro projects,developing a comprehensive value chain consisting of metro infrastructure,operations,integration
257、 of urban development and transit,and property management.In 2022,SMP earned 16 billion RMB in revenue from integrated development of metro and property,the highest among all metro companies in China.Meanwhile,SMP received only 531 million RMB government subsidy,among the lowest subsidies for all ur
258、ban rail systems in China(Song,2023).5657Governmental subsidies support the sustainable operationThe investment and operation cost26 of urban rail systems are notably high.Although the cost varies across cities,on average,the construction of every kilometer subway means 700-800 million RMB investmen
259、t and often exceeds 1 billion RMB in the megacities.Taking Shanghai and Beijing for example,the estimated investment per kilometer reaches 2 billion RMB for Shanghai Metro Line 20,and 1.5 billion RMB for Beijing Subway Line 25 Phase 3(Rail-stdaily,2023).Estimates show that subway investment payback
260、in China requires at least 29 years(Wu,2017),based on the average level of costs and revenues.The fast expansion of urban rail networks and the affordable ticket prices are largely attributed to government support.Similar to buses,governments provide signifcant subsidies to the operations of urban r
261、ails.In 2022,the nationwide total subsidies for metros,a primary category of urban rails,surpassed 110 billion RMB.At the city level,Beijing allocated over 26 billion RMB in subsidies in 2022.Some other cities,including Hangzhou,Chongqing,Zhengzhou,Suzhou,Qingdao,Chengdu,Ningbo,and Nanjing also prov
262、ided subsidies over 5 billion RMB(ThePaper,2023).26 The investment cost includes land acquisition and resettlement,civil engineering,road occupation and diversion,pipeline relocation,vehicles(rail cars),mechanical and electrical equipment,etc.Encourage TOD as a new development model In 2018,General
263、Offce of the State Council issued Opinions on Further Strengthening the Administration of Planning for Construction of Urban Rail Transportation,emphasizing the importance of establishing viable fnancing models and internalizing land value to cover urban rail system costs(State Offce,2018).To reduce
264、 reliance on subsidies,urban rail companies proactively explore to establish their own“self-restoration”mechanisms for fnancial self-suffciency.TOD,provides a promising approach.By applying the TOD model,developers can engage in high-density property development around rail stations,generating reven
265、ue through real estate to support subway operations.Successful global examples include the new World Trade Center in New York,the Grand Front in Osaka,the Kowloon station in Hongkong.These TOD projects are fnancially self-sustaining while benefting urban development and mobility improvement.China ac
266、tively promotes TOD to effectively manage its rapid urbanization with the development of public transit networks.Localized TOD models include“R+P”,“integrated hub station development”,and“metro station-centered complex development”,emphasizing multifunctional mixed-use of land and integrated urban p
267、lanning around transit hubs.Shenzhen leads mainland R+P.In 2022,Shenzhen Metro reported a revenue of 16 billion RMB from station-city integration.In the same year,Beijing Investment,the operator of Beijing Metro,had a total revenue of nearly 6.3 billion RMB from its real estate development and prima
268、ry land development.Chengdu Rail Transit Group received 6.2 billion RMB from station comprehensive development revenue.Rail transit in Hangzhou,Qingdao,Ningbo,Nanning,Guangzhou,and other cities also reported signifcant income from real estate-related activities(ThePaper,2023).Box 3Shenzhen metro:bes
269、t TOD development with least subsidies and highest revenueScreenshot of Amap Shanghai Hongqiao Railway StationShanghai Hongqiao International AirportShanghai Metro Line 2Shanghai Metro Line 10Shanghai Metro Line 17Box 45859Shanghai Hongqiao Transportation Hub:the pioneer of integrating multiple tran
270、sport modesShanghai Hongqiao Transportation Hub consists of Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport,the intercity high-speed Shanghai Hongqiao railway station,three metro lines,buses,taxis,and a maglev station.In 2019,the hub witnessed an average daily passenger throughput exceeding 1 million,reachi
271、ng a peak daily fow of 1.5 million.By 2021,the annual total passenger volume had exceeded 300 million.Because of the convenience,48%of inbound passengers arriving at Hongqiao Airport or railway station take metro lines to their destinations in the city.The hub encouraged more outbound passengers to
272、choose railways,with the share increasing from 61%in 2011 to 74%in 2019.The overall passenger volume of Hongqiao railway station in 2019 was 253%of the level in 2011.The overall passenger volume of Hongqiao Airport in the same year was 135%of the level in 2011(ThePaper,2019).Hongqiao Hub has become
273、the most important transport hub in East China,laying a solid foundation for the integration of urban functions and driving the economic prosperity of Shanghai.In addition,it serves as a vital facilitator for the economic activities of the entire Yangtze River Delta region by providing substantial s
274、upport for regional transportation centered around Shanghai.As the frst of its kind in China,the Hongqiao Hub model has been followed by other cities,including Hangzhou,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen.Going forward,China should see more“Hongqiao Hubs”to improve the effciency of passenger transport.27 Forty-t
275、wo national-level transport hubs are in Beijing,Tianjin,Harbin,Changchun,Shenyang,Dalian,Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Qingdao,Jinan,Shanghai,Nanjing,Lianyungang,Xuzhou,Hefei,Hangzhou,Ningbo,Fuzhou,Xiamen,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhanjiang,Haikou,Taiyuan,Datong,Zhengzhou,Wuhan,Changsha,Nanchang,Chongq
276、ing,Chengdu,Kunming,Guiyang,Nanning,Xian,Lanzhou,Urumqi,Hohhot,Yinchuan,Xining,and Lhasa.Multimodal transport hubs can reduce transit distances and improve effciency.The State Council issued the“Outline of the Plan for the Development of Road Transport Industry during the Period of the 12th Five-Yea
277、r Plan”in June 2012,setting targets of developing 42 national-level transport hubs27 characterized by zero-distance interchange and seamless connections(State Council,2012).This kicked off the development of a multimodal transport hub in China.In the following year 2013,“Guiding Opinions on Promotin
278、g the Development of Comprehensive Transport Hubs”detailed design principles,key tasks and safeguard measures to stimulate the planning and development of the 42 hubs.Social capitals investment and participation in the development and operation was encouraged.Multi-purpose and mixed use of land ensu
279、red the sustainability with diverse fnancing and well-designed business models(NDRC,2013).The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC)and State Council(2019,2021)further emphasized the commitment to building robust,multi-level,integrated transportation hub systems in the“Outline for Bu
280、ilding Chinas National Strength in Transport”and“National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline”.MOF revised the rules to allow the use of funds generated from vehicle purchase taxes for the construction of comprehensive transport hubs(Jin et al.,2023).Promote multi
281、modal transport hubs integrating urban rail,city bus,railway,and airports60SHARED BICYCLES AND ELECTRIC TWO AND THREE WHEELERSPART IVWHY are shared bicycles and E2/3Ws so popular?In the 1980s,Chinas cities were characterized by compact layouts,resulting in short-distance urban passenger trips and lo
282、w demands for urban mobility.Meanwhile,the motorcycle and auto industry in China was still at an early development stage,and most people could not afford to buy vehicles.This made bicycles and buses the preferred choices for urban mobility.When Chinas cities began expanding in the 1990s,there was a
283、noticeable increase in the travel distance for urban mobility.Supported by increasing income and a more developed motorcycle industry,a growing population chooses motorcycles to meet this demand change.Moving into the 2000s,public transport and motorcycles became the primary solutions for urban mobi
284、lity,while private cars also made their entrance.Meanwhile,bicycles experienced a signifcant decline in market share due to insuffcient parking infrastructure and dedicated bicycle lanes,easy theft risks,and limitations for long-distance trips.Because public transport could not provide quality high
285、door-to-door service and family income levels still prevented the majority from purchasing a car,ICE2/3Ws became prevalent in personal urban mobility.This was due to their superior maneuverability compared to bicycles,fexibility compared to public transport,and affordability compared to cars.However
286、,the widespread use of cheap motorcycles also resulted in some unexpected issues,including an increase in motorcycle-related robberies and traffc accidents in early-developing cities like Guangzhou.These issues had negative impacts on the citys image and public safety.After careful consideration,Gua
287、ngzhou Municipal Government made a diffcult decision to ban the use of motorcycles in downtown areas.IV-16162Shared bicycles and E2/3Ws seize a significant market share for urban mobilityIn the 1980s,private bicycles were widely used in China with a travel rate exceeding 50%,earning China the title
288、Bicycles Kingdom.However,under the dual forces of urbanization expansion and automobile industry development,the travel rate of bicycles had dropped to 5.5%.When shared bicycles emerged around 2015,the travel rate of bicycles doubled to 11.6%,with shared bicycles contributing to approximately 60%of
289、this increase(Beijing Tsinghua Tongheng Planning and Design Institute&Mobike,2017).Shared mode is leading bicycles back to citiesE2Ws reign supreme in urban individual mobility.For example,e-bicycles accounted for 20%of urban transport in Shenzhen,and nearly 1/3 in Nanning in 2022(Wang,Y.,2023).Rega
290、rding the delivery service,E2/3Ws also demonstrates dominance.Take Jiangsu Province,one of the top three regions for logistics services,as an example.In 2022,there were 86,500 delivery vehicles(Jiangsu Road Safety Association,2022),of which 87%were E2/3Ws,including approximately 64,000 E3Ws and 11,4
291、00 E2Ws.E2/3Ws have been the preferred choice for urban travel and delivery-Since the 2000s,ICE2/3Ws faced extensive restrictions in urban areas across China,primarily due to environmental concerns and their association with illegal activities like robbery.Growing traffc accidents of management chal
292、lenges were also part of the concerns.At the same time,China started to encourage private cars.However,private cars are still not the preferred choice due to their high purchase and maintenance cost.In 2022,the median disposable income per capita in China was 31,370 RMB,while only 3,195 RMB(NBS,2023
293、e)was spent on transport on average.People are eager to seek affordable,personalized,and effcient transport modes.Bicycles and E2/3Ws for Various Demand of Urban MobilityTable 4Congestion-freeCompact size.Compared to private cars,both bicycles and E2Ws occupy only a quarter of the road space,and E3W
294、s take up just half.The compact size of E2/3Ws allows them weave through congested roads more seamlessly,especially when traffc rules may not be strictly enforced.Utilize non-motor lanes.Despite their maneuverability,E2/3Ws are typically classifed as non-motorized vehicles in road management.This cl
295、assifcation enables them to access less congested non-motor lanes.6364E2/3Ws demonstrate its cost advantages whether for intensive commercial utilization or daily personal travel.Their annual operating costs remain within 27%of ICE2/3Ws,and even more affordable compared to private cars.Acquisition c
296、osts.The acquisition cost of mainstream E2/3W models is 50%-60%of ICE2/3Ws with comparable performance.However,it is noteworthy that E2/3Ws have lower durabilitywith similar usage intensity,E2/3Ws have a lifetime of three to fve years,whereas ICE2/3Ws commonly last around eight years.Energy consumpt
297、ion.E2/3Ws have only 4%9%energy cost of ICE2/3Ws for the same mileage,due to electricity-gasoline price differential and energy consumption differences.Maintenance costs.E2/3Ws have a maintenance cost advantage because of their simpler structure and cheaper components.For instance,replacing the batt
298、ery on a 3000 RMB E2W costs around 400 RMB,while replacing the engine in a similar performing ICE2W would cost approximately 1000 RMB.Moreover,in contrast to ICE2/3Ws,E2/3Ws do not require regular maintenance costs such as oil changes and flter replacements.Economically affordableDistinctive advanta
299、ges drive the expansion of shared bicycles and E2/3WsProduct Technical Standards Comparison/Non-motorizedNot requiredRequiredRequiredMotorizedMotorized400kg50km/hRequiredMotorized50km/h50km/h40kgRequiredMotorized400kg50km/h20km/h-50km/hBicycleE-BicycleE-Moped(2W)E-Moped(3W)E-Motorcycle(2W)E-Motorcyc
300、le(3W)privatebicyclesharedbicycleprivate e-bicycleshared e-bicycleProductDesign SpeedCurb WeightAttributeDriver License/Not requiredNon-motorized25km/h55kgFor business use,E3Ws annual costof ICE3WsFor daily personal travel,E2Ws annual cost27%of ICE2WsThe cost advantage of E2/3Ws is even more evident
301、 if comparing to private cars.33%3 EVs E2/3Ws energy effciency60%55%28099.9%bicycles ridership comes from shared bicycles shared e-bicycle ridership serves connection to rail transit cities had established battery swapping stationsnational average power supply reliability provide accountable infrast
302、ructureEnergy Efficiency of Different Transport ModesFigure 47EF China analysisEVE2WsE3WsPassenger CapacitykWh per kmkWh per passenger km5320.1500.0420.0300.0140.0080.016Replace higher-emission modes of travel E2/3Ws have a noticeable impact as an alternative to car Following motorcycle restrictions
303、,taxis and private cars have gradually become one of the predominant forms of personalized urban mobility.As direct alternatives to conventional options,E2/3Ws exhibit a remarkable substitution rate of 23%for car travel(Institute for Transportation and Development Policy ITDP,2022).The electrifcatio
304、n penetration rate of 2/3Ws continues to increaseChina possessed the worlds largest ICE2/3Ws feet with the stock reaching 100 million in 2005.By the end of 2022,E2Ws accounted for 81%of new 2Ws sales,securing absolute dominance.However,the fact of 3Ws is complete opposite.The rise of last-mile freig
305、ht delivery is increasing the demand of 3Ws,but the penetration rate of E3Ws in new 3Ws sales witnessed a noticeable decline to 20%from 29%in 2020.The main reason is that around 2020,local governments started imposing restrictions on non-compliant E3Ws in urban areas,but the regulations for complian
306、t E3Ws have remained unclear.Consumers are worried that the new E3Ws they purchased might be affected by new restrictive regulations.They tend to prefer ICE3Ws with more clearly defned regulatory requirements.In the contrast to consumers,manufacturers have positive expectations for compliant E3Ws an
307、d are translating these positive expectations into action.84%of the newly approved 3Ws models in 2022 were electric,with 94%being high-powered models rated at 800W or above,aligned with freight ICE3Ws products.Therefore,the electrifcation transition of 3Ws is expected to grow in future,once regulati
308、ons for compliant E3Ws are defned.23%travel used to be conducted by passenger cars.E2/3Ws replacesTransport Modes Replaced by E-Bicycles(2022)Figure 48ITDP(2022)15%Walk25%Bus13%Urban Rail4%Taxi&Ride-hailing19%Private Car24%Bicycle81%20%of new 2Ws sales are electric.In 2022,of new 3Ws sales are elect
309、ric.Penetration Rate of E2/3Ws in New 2/3Ws Sales(2020 and 2022)Figure 496970Total sales of 2Ws:60.20M2020Total sales of 2Ws:62.06M2022Sales of E2Ws:50.10M81%Sales of ICE2Ws:11.96M19%Sales of E2Ws:47.60M79%Sales of ICE2Ws:12.60M21%Total sales of 3Ws:2.22M2020Total sales of 3Ws:2.29M2022Sales of E3Ws
310、:0.46M80%Sales of ICE3Ws:1.83M20%Sales of E3Ws:0.65M29%Sales of ICE3Ws:1.57M71%CCCM(2021,2023),iResearch(2023)Complex impacts on public transport service Increasing urban rail attractiveness by bridging the“last mile”2Ws travel is particularly active around urban rail stations,indicating most 2Ws tr
311、ips are connected to transit.Nationwide,bicycles and E2Ws accounted for over 20%(Tsinghua Tongheng&Mobike,2017)of mobility around urban rail stations.In cities with extensive rail networks exceeding 300km,this share was over 30%.In Beijing,with the countrys longest rail system,it reached an impressi
312、ve 40%.In 2022,55%of shared e-bicycle rides were used to connect to rail transit.Shared bicycles/E2Ws+urban rail transit model could be further promoted by providing non-motor facilities around urban rail stations,such as dedicated parking area and non-motor lanes.Diverting passengers from public tr
313、ansportFor average distance of urban mobility of 10km,shared bicycles and E2/3Ws have much lower costs than public transport.They also provide fexibility in routes,time saving,and opportunities for physical exercise.The benefts have led to an increasing preference for shared bicycles and E2/3Ws over
314、 traditional public transport.9%of urban public transit.Travel expense of E2Ws could be as low as 717294%of certifcated new E3Ws models have a rated power exceeding 800W.Travel Cost Comparison between E2Ws and Other TransportModes for 10km Travel DistanceFigure 52EF China analysis(2023)Urban RailBus
315、SharedE2WsShared0.6 RMB2.5 RMB1.5 RMB3-7 RMBUnit:RMB84%of certifcated 3Ws models applied for production are E3Ws.In 2022,ITDP(2023)Annual Addition of ICE/E3Ws Models by Purpose(2009-2022)Figure 50Units of New Models Added05001,0001,5002,0002,5002013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
316、2020 2021 2022 E3Ws FreightE3Ws PassengerICE3Ws FreightICE3Ws PassengerNew Certificated Models of E3Ws by Rated Power(2017-2022)Figure 51Units of New Models05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002002020212022Rated Power 5000W3000W Rated Power 5000W1500W Rated Power 3000W800W Rated Power 1
317、500WRated Power 10m)eligible to receive 420,000600,000 RMB per vehicle;PHEV buses to receive 50,000420,000 RMB per vehicle.Aiming to launch the NEV market through pilot demonstration.Deployed 27,400 NEVs in 25 pilot cities during 200912;of which,23,000 NEVs were public service vehicles particularly
318、buses.Ten Cities One Thousand Electric VehiclesAiming to support implementation of the national strategy for prioritizing the development of public transportation,with an overarching goal to improve public transit service level,satisfy urban passengers travel demands,alleviate traffc congestion,and
319、relieve pressure of resource conservation and environment protection.Green Travel Creation which targeted at 70%urban travel by green mobility is a part of this demonstration.Set primary KPIs for city pilots as:public transit shares over 45%or 40%of the urban travels with or without urban rail syste
320、ms;average bus speed increases 5%year on year;infrastructures and accessibility facilities improved.Between 2012 and Jan 2023,a total of 76 pilot cities in 6 batches have accomplished key tasks and been offcially named as National Transit Metropolis.National TransitMetropolisDemonstrations Narrowed
321、the price gap between NEVs and fossil fuel vehicles;fscal subsidies became more specifed by technologies and vehicle categories.Fiscal Subsidies to Demonstrate NEVs in ScaleApplied fexible adjustment and extension of subsidy to maintain and strengthen the development.Fiscal Subsidies for Further NEV
322、 DevelopmentNotifed a subsidy phase-down plan:2022 to be fnal year of NEV purchase subsidy;30%reduction in general and 20%reduction for public service vehicles such as buses,against 2021 standards.MOF,MIIT,MOST&NDRC Joint Notice on Fiscal Incentives to Promote NEV Deployment in 2022 Added new indica
323、tors of effency,mileage,etc,and tightened subsidy standards to encourage technology innovation and top runners.Fiscal Subsidies to Deploy NEVs Nationally and Encourage Top RunnersUpdated bus/coach 2013 subsidy standards as 300,000500,000 RMB per vehicle for BEV and FCV buses,and maximum 250,000 RMB
324、for PHEV buses.MOF,MOST,MIIT&NDRC Joint Notice on Continuing NEV DeploymentProvided rewards in two phases of 201315&201620 to support charging infrastructure development of the cities that met NEV deployment scale criteria.MOF,MOST,MIIT&NDRC Joint Release:Rewards for Construction of Charging Infrast
325、ructures Smoothed subsidy phase-down:*In 2019 and 2020,reduced 20%against 2016;*Local subsidy per vehicle can not exceed 50%of the central subsidy.MOF,MIIT,MOST&NDRC Joint Notice on Adjustment on Fiscal Incentives to Promote NEV Deployment Allowed local subsidies for purchase of NEV buses to continu
326、e;diverted purchase subsidies to awards for NEV buses operation since 2020.MOF,MIIT,MOT&NDRC Joint Notice to Promote Deployment of NEV BusesAdjusted the subsidy standards:*Feb to June 2018,up to 60%subsidy reduced against 2016;*Since 2018,divert subsidy from encouraging purchase to charging infrastr
327、ucture.MOF,MIIT,MOST&NDRC Joint Notice on Adjustment and Improvement of Fiscal Incentives to Promote NEV DeploymentExtended the subsidy till 2022,and subsidized up to 2 million vehicles per year;Subsidy standards for public sector NEVs since 2020:no reduction in 2020,10%and 20%reduction in 2021 and
328、2022 against pervious year.MOF,MIIT,MOST&NDRC Joint Notice on Improving the Fiscal Incentives to Promote NEV DeploymentPilot Program of Comprehensive Electrifcation of Public Sector VehiclesSectorDevelopment MeasuresFiscal IncentivesUpdated subsidy standards since 2016:*Bus/Coach(by length):120,0005
329、00,000 RMB per vehicle;Subsidy phase-down for BEVs&PHEVs:*In 2017 and 2018,reduced 20%against 2016;*In 2019 and 2020,reduced 40%against 2016.MOF,MIIT,MOST&NDRC Joint Notice on Fiscal Incentives to Promote NEV Deployment(2016-2020)Diverted bus operation subsidy from diesel and gasoline to electricity
330、.Fiscal Subsidies for Bus OperationsCreated a comparative advantage for NEV buses and drove fuel structural change of bus feets by differentiating subsidy allocations.Provided yearly operation subsidy up to 80,000 RMB per NEV bus.Fuel supply fund for ICE buses reduced by 60%between 2015 and 2019 aga
331、inst 2013 levels.MOF,MIIT&MOT Joint Notice on Improving Transit Bus Refned Oil Price Subsidy Policy to Accelerate deployment of NEV buses2015MOF&MOST Joint Notice on Energy-Saving&NEV Demonstration and DeploymentMOF,MOST,MIIT&NDRC Joint Notice on Expanding the Energy-Saving&NEV Demonstration and Dep
332、loyment in Public Service AreasAiming to lead commercial development of NEVs by massively deploying NEV public service vehicles.Targets by 2025:-80%of new buses,taxis,sanitation vehicles,postal and urban logistics vehicles to be NEVs,with equal numbers of charging piles installed;-Demonstrate new te
333、chs such as VGI and orderly charging;-Include carbon reduction from public vehicles in voluntary GHGs trade.Subsidized bus operations in the form of fuel subsidy.Fiscal Subsidies for Bus OperationsSet special funds to subsidize transit buses and rural road passenger transport operators to offset their increased fuel costs resulting from refned oil price rise.MOF&MOT Joint Release:Interim Measures