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1、Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia1IESRManfaat Kesehatan dari Transisi Energi Berkeadilan dan Penghentian Bertahap Batubara di Indonesia?IESR?Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in IndonesiaiAbout CREAThe Centre for Research on Energy a
2、nd Clean Air(CREA)is an independent research organisation focused on revealing the trends,causes,and health impacts,as well as the solutions to air pollution.CREA uses scientific data,research,and evidence to support the efforts of governments,companies,and campaigning organisations worldwide in the
3、ir efforts to move towards clean energy and clean air,believing that effective research and communication are the keys to successful policies,investment decisions,and advocacy efforts.CREA was founded in Helsinki and has staff in several Asian and European countries.Authors Lauri Myllyvirta Jamie Ke
4、llyErika UusivuoriKatherine HasanVera TattariContributorsRaden Raditya Yudha WiranegaraDeon ArinaldoAcknowledgementsWe gratefully acknowledge the support,feedback,and insight we received from the following organisations and individuals:Raden Raditya Yudha Wiranegara and Deon Arinaldo from Institute
5、for Essential Services Reform(IESR).The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and should not be attributed to any of the aforementioned.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in IndonesiaiiHealth Benefits of Just Energy Transition and Coal Phase-out in Indones
6、iaKey findingsAir pollutant emissions from coal power plants increased by 110%in Indonesia over the past decade.If all planned coal power plants,including captive power plants,are completed and put into operation,a further 70%increase is expected under the current policies scenario by 2030.Detailed
7、air quality and health impact modelling carried out for this report indicate that air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power plants in Indonesia in 2022 were responsible for 10,500 deaths from air pollution(95%CI:6,50016,400)and health costs of USD 7.4 billion(IDR 109.9 trillion;95%CI:USD 4.611.5
8、 billion,IDR 67.6170.3 trillion).Current policies would increase Indonesias current coal-fired capacity of 45 GW to 63 GW,before peaking in 2028.This would result in deaths linked to air pollution from coal power rising to 16,600 per year(95%CI:10,30025,900)and health costs to USD 11.8 billion per y
9、ear(IDR 175.2 trillion;95%CI:USD 7.218.2 billion,IDR 106.9270.3 trillion).Under current policies,cumulative health impacts from 2024 until the end of life of all coal power plants would result in 303,000 air-pollution-related deaths(95%CI:189,000468,000)and health costs of USD 210 billion(IDR 3.2 qu
10、adrillion;95%CI:USD 130330 billion,IDR 2.04.9 quadrillion).A faster coal phase-out by 2040,in line with the 1.5 degrees target of the Paris Agreement,would avoid a cumulative total of 182,000 air pollution-related deaths(95%CI:114,000280,000)and health costs of USD 130 billion(IDR 1,900 trillion;95%
11、CI:USD 80200 billion IDR 1,2002,900 trillion),from 2024 until the end-of-life of all plants.Mandatory air pollution controls installation would avoid 8,300 air pollution-related deaths in 2035 in the current policies scenario(95%confidence interval:5,20012,600),as well as health costs of USD 5.8 bil
12、lion(IDR 86.5 trillion;95%CI:USD 3.68.9 billion,IDR 54.1131.5 trillion).Cumulative avoided health costs would reach USD 90 billion(IDR 1.3 quadrillion;95%CI:USD 60140 billion,IDR 0.82.0 quadrillion),yielding a net economic benefit of USD 70 billion(IDR 290 trillion)to the society,considering the inv
13、estment and operating costs of the air pollution controls,making the investments highly profitable from a social point of view.Responsible for one-fifth of all health impacts of coal-fired plants in Indonesia,it is crucial to include captive coal power plants in the Energy Transition Mechanism(ETM)a
14、nd Just Energy Transition Partnership(JETP)to make meaningful progress.Excluding them from the 2040 coal phase-out policy could cause an additional health burden of 27,000 air pollution deaths.(95%CI:16,00042,000)and health costs of USD 20 billion(IDR 330 trillion;95%CI:USD 1030 billion,IDR 200520 t
15、rillion).Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in IndonesiaiiiWe also assessed the impacts of current and planned biomass co-firing on air pollution from coal power plants.Raising the share of co-firing to a minimum of 20%at all PLN(Peraturan Listrik Negara,Indonesias state-ow
16、ned electricity provider)power plants a significant challenge in terms of the availability of biomass and potentially also a technical challenge would merely reduce the emissions of air pollutants from Indonesias coal power plants by 1.52.4%depending on the pollutant.Reduction of air pollution from
17、coal power plants can only be effectively achieved through the proper installation of emission control technology.CREAs analysis shows that having air pollution control installed in all operating coal power plants beyond 2035 would reduce the emissions of SOx by 73%,NOx by 64%,dust by 86%,and mercur
18、y by 71%.Ammonia co-firing would worsen air quality impacts due to fugitive ammonia emissions.KF1.Operating coal-fired capacity by scenarioSource:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA)analysis based on University of Maryland and Global Energy Monitor(GEM)data.Health benefits of Just Energ
19、y Transition and coal phase-out in IndonesiaivKF2.Annual mean PM2.5 concentration from all coal power plants in IndonesiaSource:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in IndonesiavSource:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean A
20、ir(CREA).Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).KF3.Air pollution-related annual costs by scenarioKF4.Air pollution-related annual deaths by scenarioHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in IndonesiaviContentsKey findings ContentsAbbreviations Executive summa
21、ry Background and methodology Current impacts of coal power emissions Future impacts under different retirement pathways Benefits of health-based coal power plant retirement IntroductionState of coal-fired electricity generationNational efforts and international supportPollution control and emission
22、 regulationMethodologyEmissions inventoryAtmospheric modellingHealth and economic impacts assessmentCost of air pollution controlsEvaluation of different phase-out timelinesImplications on air pollutionHealth impacts and cost implicationsAnnual impacts Cumulative impactsBenefits of prioritising plan
23、ts with worst health impactsEvaluation of air pollution control implementationEvaluation of co-firing implementationConclusion References Appendix iivivii2242929353Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in IndonesiaviiAbbreviations1.5 degreesTar
24、get threshold limit of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement ACTAccelerating Coal TransitionADBAsian Development BankAPCAir Pollution ControlAQLIAir Quality Life IndexASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian NationsCCSCarbon Capture and StorageCEMSContinuous Emission Monitor
25、ing SystemCFPPCoal-fired Power Plant CIConfidence IntervalCIFClimate Investment FundsCOCarbon MonoxideCO2Carbon DioxideEEAEuropean Environment AgencyEIAEnvironmental Impact Assessment ETMEnergy Transition MechanismFGCFlue Gas ConcentrationGCPTGlobal Coal Plant TrackerGDPGross Domestic ProductGEMGlob
26、al Energy MonitorGNI PPPGross National Income in Purchasing Power ParityGWGigawattGtCO2-eqGigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalentH2O2Hydrogen PeroxideIEAInternational Energy AgencyIEEFAInstitute for Energy Economics and Financial AnalysisIESRInstitute for Essential Services ReformIHMEInstitute for H
27、ealth Metrics and Evaluationint.USDInternational Dollar,equivalent to the purchasing power of 1 USDIPPIndependent Power ProducerJETPJust Energy Transition PartnershipLCCPLow Carbon Scenario Compatible with Paris AgreementLHVLower Heating ValueLTS-LCCR 2050Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climat
28、e Resilience 2050MEMR Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resourcesg/Nm3Microgram per normal cubic metre(at 101.325 kPa,273.15 K)Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesiaviiimg/Nm3Milligram per normal cubic metre(at 101.325 kPa,273.15 K)MtCO2-eqMillion tonnes of carbon dio
29、xide equivalentMWMegawattNDCNationally Determined ContributionNH3AmmoniaNm3/GJNormal cubic metre per GigaJoule(at 101.325 kPa,273.15 K)NO2Nitrogen DioxideNOXNitrogen OxidesO3Ozone,ground-levelOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPERPRES 112/2022Peraturan Presiden No.112 Tahun 20
30、22 tentang Percepatan Pengembangan Energi Terbarukan untuk Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik,Presidential Regulation No.112 Year 2022 on the Acceleration of the Development of Renewable Energy for the Provision of Electric PowerPLNPerusahaan Listrik Negara,Indonesias State-owned Electricity ProviderPMPartic
31、ulate MatterPM2.5Particulate Matter with particles that are 2.5 microns or less in diameter PM10Particulate Matter with particles that are 10 microns or less in diameter PPAPower Purchase AgreementRUPTLRencana Umum Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik,PLNs 10-year business planSO2Sulphur DioxideUNEPUnite
32、d Nations Environment ProgrammeUNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUSDThe United States DollarWRFWeather Research Forecasting1ExecutiveSummaryHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia2Background and methodologyCurrent impacts of coal power emiss
33、ionsIndonesia relies on coal-fired power for 62.5%of its electricity generation (PLN,2022).This reliance comes with significant impacts on the countrys air quality and public health,as well as a major contribution to the growth in greenhouse gas emissions over the past decade.The coal phase-out and
34、net-zero pathways currently being prepared are a major opportunity to clean up Indonesias power system.This study assesses the current air quality and its health impacts,and the associated external economic costs of coal power plants in Indonesia.The study also includes the impact of various policy
35、pathways into the future.We present the first health-based phase-out pathways that are designed to maximise public health benefits of retiring coal power plants.By using the impact pathway approach,this study quantifies the health impacts of air pollutant emissions from coal power generation in Indo
36、nesia.This approach is the most common way to study the health impacts of air pollutant sources.This approach includes following the chain of causation from emissions,to atmospheric dispersion and chemical transformation,population exposure,resulting health impacts,and the economic cost of those hea
37、lth impacts.The impacts are quantified for the pathway implied by the regulation currently in place,for the 1.5-degree-aligned pathway for utility power plants,and for the 1.5-degree-aligned pathway for both captive and utility power plants.The study also quantifies the impact of more stringent air
38、pollutant emission controls and different levels of biomass co-firing.The analysis is done by developing a plant-by-plant inventory of emissions,estimating plant-level pollution dispersion through atmospheric modelling,quantifying health impacts resulting from changes in ambient concentration,and va
39、luing health impacts in monetary terms using economic costs per case of different health outcomes compiled from literatures and transferred to Indonesias level of income and GDP per capita.The emission inventory is based on disclosures by plant operators as far as possible,with the plant-specific da
40、ta compiled for as many plants as possible and generalised to other plants of the same type.We assume that all power plants meet the national emissions standards,providing conservative estimates of impacts.Future health and economic impacts are projected taking into account population growth,economi
41、c growth,and projected changes in demographics.Based on the estimations of the Air Quality Life Index(AQLI),91%of Indonesias population is exposed to air pollution levels worse than WHO guidelines.In the most polluted province,West Java,air pollution reduces the life expectancy of its 48 million res
42、idents by 4.1 years.Comparably,the residents of the Jakarta Metropolitan Area,Jabodetabek,are exposed to high levels of particulate pollution,and life expectancy is 5.5 to 6.4 years shorter than those living in regions where WHO guidelines are met(AQLI,2022).According to a 2015 study conducted by th
43、e Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group of Harvard University and Greenpeace Southeast Asia,air pollution emitted by coal-fired power plants(CFPP)was estimated to be responsible for 6,500 premature deaths annually in 2011(Koplitz et al.,2017).For each new addition of a 1,000 MW power plant,an average
44、 of 600 Indonesian adults and children would be severely impacted by acute and chronic respiratory diseases due to exposure to fine particulate matter and gaseous pollutants(Greenpeace Indonesia,2015).Air pollutant emissions from coal power in Indonesia have increased by an estimated 110%over the pa
45、st decade.Under the current policy,the emissions are expected to further increase by 70%by 2030.In 2022,emissions from coal plants were responsible for 10,500 deaths(95%CI:6,50016,400)and health costs of USD 7.4 billion(IDR 109.9 trillion;95%CI:USD 4.611.5 billion,IDR 67.6170.3 trillion).However,und
46、er the current policy,the deaths linked to emissions from coal-fired power plants are estimated to rise to 16,600 a year(10,30025,900),while the health costs would accordingly rise to USD 11.8 billion per year by the end of the decade(IDR 175.2 trillion;95%CI:USD 7.218.2 billion,IDR 106.9270.3 trill
47、ion).Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia3Future impacts under different retirement pathwaysAfter evaluating the air quality and health impacts of all coal power plants in Indonesia,we projected future emissions and health impacts for different pathways.Our“curre
48、nt policies”pathway is based on PERPRES 112/2022,which requires all PLN and IPP power plants and new captive power plants to retire by 2050.In addition,we assume that all existing captive power plants would retire after 30 years of operation while emission standards for all plants remain unchanged a
49、t the current level.Under this scenario,starting from 2024 until the end-of-life of all coal-fired power plants in Indonesia,coal power emissions would lead to the cumulative amount of 303,000 air-pollution-related deaths(95%CI:189,000468,000)and health costs of USD 210 billion(IDR 3.2 quadrillion;9
50、5%CI:USD 130330 billion,IDR 2.04.9 quadrillion).As an alternative,we evaluate the 1.5 degrees pathway,aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the International Energy Agencys recommendation to phase out coal power plants by 2040.Compared with current policies,this faster coal phase-out wou
51、ld avoid a cumulative total of 182,000 air pollution-related deaths(95%confidence interval:114,000280,000)and health costs of USD 130 billion(IDR 1,900 trillion;95%CI:USD 80200 billion IDR 1,2002,900 trillion),from 2024 until the end-of-life of all plants.Indonesias current air pollutant emissions s
52、tandards for coal-fired power plants are far behind best international practices and best available technology.This is clear from comparisons with e.g.China,South Korea,and the European Union.We,therefore,model a pathway in which all power plants that are expected to operate beyond 2035 are mandated
53、 to install efficient emission control devices by 2030.In this pathway,8,300 air pollution-related annual deaths could be avoided in 2035 in the current policies scenario(95%confidence interval:5,20012,600),as well as health costs of USD 5.8 billion(IDR 86.5 trillion;95%CI:USD 3.68.9 billion,IDR 54.
54、1131.5 trillion).The cumulative avoided health costs would reach USD 90 billion(IDR 1.3 quadrillion;95%CI:USD 60140 billion,IDR 0.82.0 quadrillion),yielding a net economic benefit of USD 70 billion(IDR 290 trillion)to society,considering the investment and operating costs of the air pollution contro
55、ls,making the investments highly profitable from a social point of view.From the greenhouse gas and public health perspective,it is essential to include captive power plants in Indonesias coal phase-out policies as these plants are responsible for approximately 20%of the total health impacts of coal
56、-fired power in the country.Excluding captive power plants from a 2040 coal phase-out policy could cause an additional health burden of 27,000 air pollution-related deaths(95%confidence interval:16,00042,000)and health costs of USD 20 billion(IDR 330 trillion;95%CI:USD 1030 billion,IDR 200520 trilli
57、on).Even as the coal phase-out begins,some power plants are expected to operate well into or beyond the 2030s.Investing in improved air pollution controls in those power plants would deliver substantial health and economic benefits.PLNs plans for meeting renewable energy targets set for 2025 and 203
58、0 rely heavily on biomass co-firing.Our evaluation of co-firing on air pollutant emissions and health impacts from coal power revealed it to be very modest.Raising the share of this co-firing to a minimum of 20%at all PLN power plants would reduce these emissions by 1.5 to 2.4%,depending on the poll
59、utant.In contrast,requiring efficient emission control technology at all power plants operating beyond 2035 would reduce emissions of SOx by an estimated 73%,NOx by 64%,dust by 86%,and mercury by 71%.There are also tentative plans for co-firing ammonia at some coal power plants.Besides the likely pr
60、actical and economic unviability of the idea,it could worsen air quality impacts,due to fugitive ammonia emissions from the transportation and handling of ammonia and from the power plant itself.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia4Benefits of health-based coal p
61、ower plant retirementPower plants located near densely populated areas have the highest public health costs.The impact on the population is exacerbated by several factors,including unfavourable wind patterns and poor emission control measures.Clear examples of this correlation include PLN Muara Kara
62、ng and Lontar power plants located in Jakarta and Tangerang,as well as the captive coal power plants located in Bekasi,Karawang,Purwakarta,and Bandung.The health benefits and cost-effectiveness of the coal phase-out are maximised by prioritising the plants with the highest health impacts in the orde
63、r of retirement.If we followed the simple logic of retiring the oldest plants first,the number of air pollution-related deaths in the current policies scenario would be 36,000 cases higher.Simultaneously,the health costs would increase by USD 24 billion(IDR 360 trillion)by as much as 12%.Under the 1
64、.5 degrees scenario,implementing an age-based retirement schedule would cause additional cumulative air pollution-related cost burdens of USD 12 billion(IDR 180 trillion).Introduction5Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia6Indonesia is the largest emerging economy
65、in Southeast Asia having the 4th largest population in the world and maintaining an average GDP growth rate of 5.3%in the 2011-2019 period before the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020(World Bank Open Data,2023a).The final energy consumption grew at an average rate of 3.0%over the same period.Indonesia e
66、xperienced a reduction in energy consumption in 2020 and 2021 as a result of the pandemic but quickly rebounded in 2022 as economic activities resumed(MEMR,2023a).Exporting 494 million tonnes of coal,or about 70%of its national production,Indonesia contributes 21%of global coal exports by monetary v
67、alue(MEMR,2023b;Workman,2022).Indonesias coal resources and reserves are mainly medium-quality coal distributed over East Kalimantan and low-quality coal over Central and South Sumatra(IESR,2019).Despite the presence of recoverable oil and natural gas reserves of 25 billion barrels of oil equivalent
68、,Indonesia is faced with challenges in maintaining domestic output levels and meeting rising demand.Indonesia is already a net importer of oil and is projected to become a net importer of natural gas by 2030(McKinsey&Company,2020).Indonesia has been relying on fossil fuels for the nations energy nee
69、ds,where coal,oil,and gas made up nearly 88%of the national primary energy supply in 2022 at 42%,32%,and 14%,respectively.Renewable energy,with a 12%share,has remained vastly untapped(MEMR,2023a).As the urbanisation rate significantly increases parallel to economic development reaching 57%in 2021(Wo
70、rld Bank Open Data,2023b),Indonesias major metropolitan areas are faced with negative environmental consequences driven by urban consumption patterns.Higher energy consumption for electricity,transportation,and cooking in urban areas directly results in higher pollution release to air,water,and soil
71、,due to the high reliance on fossil fuels and biomass.Indonesia is also among the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,classified in the top-third risk grouping(48 out of 191)in the 2023 INFORM Risk Index mainly due to high exposure risk to floods,earthquakes,and droughts(Europ
72、ean Commission,2023).To express its national commitment to tackling climate change,Indonesia ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016,through the Nationally Determined Contribution pledged for 20202030.In the latest strengthened commitment published in 2022,Indonesia submitted the Enhanced NDC to the Un
73、ited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)Secretariat,in which the emission reduction target is increased from 29%to 31.89%unconditionally with the countrys own effort,and from 41%to 43.20%conditionally with international support(UNFCCC,2022).The Enhanced NDC is aimed to be aligned
74、with the Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050(LTS-LCCR 2050)(UNFCCC,2021),to help the country transition towards the Second NDC and realise Net Zero Emissions by 2060 or sooner.The LTS-LCCR 2050 is designed to strengthen Indonesias One Hundred Years Vision,”Visi Indonesia 20
75、45”(Kementerian PPN/Bappenas,2019),in which ambitious targets for human resource development,sustainable economy,equitable development,and consolidation of national resilience and governance are defined.Under the Low Carbon Scenario Compatible with Paris Agreement(LCCP)scenario included in LTS-LCCR
76、2050 set to be in line with the 1.5 degrees target,national emissions are projected to reach their peak in 2030 at 1.24 GtCO2-eq.Post 2030,emissions are projected to gradually decline at a rate of around 30.7 MtCO2-eq annually,to reach 0.54 GtCO2-eq in 2050 or equivalent to 1.61 ton of CO2-eq per ca
77、pita.To achieve these targets,Indonesia must achieve a net sink in Forestry and Other Land Uses(FOLU)by 2030,while also focusing on the energy sector development and transformation.Particularly for power generation,the LCCP scenario projects shifts away from coal,enhancement of renewables share,and
78、integration of biomass-coal co-firing power plants are connected to CCS.A concrete transition strategy is essential,not only to mitigate climate risks but most importantly to anticipate the consequences of development and industrial growth.Energy generation-related air pollution has severe impacts o
79、n health.Air pollution disproportionately impacts low-and middle-income countries,with Southeast Asia and Western Pacific countries facing the greatest burden,according to WHO(WHO,2021).Indonesia faces growing issues of pollution and environmental degradation as economic activities have significantl
80、y increased over the past decades.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia7Air Quality Life Index(AQLI)estimates that 91%of Indonesias population is exposed to air pollution levels above the WHO guidelines.Air pollution in West Java,ranked as the most polluted provin
81、ce,reduces the life expectancy of its 48 million residents by 4.1 years.The residents of the Jakarta Metropolitan Area,Jabodetabek,are exposed to high levels of particulate pollution,and life expectancy is 5.5 to 6.4 years shorter than those living in regions where WHO guidelines are met(AQLI,2022).
82、Figure1.PM2.5 Concentration Distribution Map over Indonesia(IQAir,2022)The distribution of PM2.5 levels across the monitored major cities in Indonesia is visualised in IQAirs 2022 World Air Quality report,where Indonesia ranks worst in the Southeast Asian region and Jakarta is shown to have the wors
83、t annual average of PM2.5 concentration of 36.2 g/m3(IQAir,2022).Noting most areas in the island of Java,where 56%of Indonesias population resides,show annual exposure exceeding three to seven times the WHOs guideline for annual PM2.5 concentration threshold of 5 g/m3(BPS,2023).Coal-fired power plan
84、ts are one of the major sources of air pollutant emissions,and a significant cause of growth in emissions.According to a study conducted by the Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group of Harvard University and Greenpeace Southeast Asia in 2015,air pollution emitted by coal-fired power plants(CFPP)was e
85、stimated to be responsible for 6,500 premature deaths annually in 2011(Koplitz et al.,2017).For each new addition of a 1,000 MW power plant,an average of 600 Indonesian adults and children would be severely impacted by acute and chronic respiratory diseases due to exposure to fine particulate matter
86、 and gaseous pollutants(Greenpeace Indonesia,2015).A commentary released by Satya Widya Yudha,a member of the National Energy Council,highlights air pollution impacts of forest fires and peatland degradation,coal-fired power plants,and vehicle emissions,and emphasises the need for legal reforms to m
87、itigate the human cost of air pollution,namely increased cases of upper respiratory infections and premature deaths(NBR,2018).Indonesia has to prioritise the adoption of cutting-edge energy-efficiency and clean energy solutions to avoid these risks,by phasing out the oldest and major CFPP emitters.S
88、ource:IQAir.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia8State of coal-fired electricity generationIn Indonesia,electricity production and distribution is handled by the national government through the state-owned PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara(PLN)and its subsidiaries,wit
89、h Independent Power Producers(IPP)responsible for a significant share of generation.The total installed capacity in the country is 69,040 MW,of which PLN operates 6,314 units with a combined capacity of 44,940 MW,or about 65%.The remaining 24,100 MW(35%)is operated by IPPs,according to PLNs 2022 Sta
90、tistical Report(PLN,2022).Indonesia has been reliant on fossil fuels,particularly coal for power generation.Coal is the primary fuel source for power generation at 62.5%share in 2022,followed by natural gas at 22.2%and oil at 5.6%,and the remaining 9.7%from renewables(PLN,2022).Figure 2 below provid
91、es the locations of the CFPPs across the country,showing PLN and IPP power plants for the national electricity supply,and captive power plants dedicated to energy-intensive industrial parks located in East and Central Java,North Sumatra,Sulawesi,and Maluku.Figure2.Indonesias coal power capacity dist
92、ribution(CREA,2023;GEM,2022)In October 2021,PLN released the companys 10-year business plan,Rencana Umum Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik(RUPTL)20212030.The document outlines a plan to add a total of 40,575 MW power generation capacity by 2030,where 51.6%comes from renewables,and 48.5%comes from foss
93、il fuels(MEMR,2021;OECD,2021).The breakdown is illustrated in Figure 3.Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA),Global Energy Monitor(GEM).Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia9Despite the commitment to achieve 23%renewables share in the energy mix
94、 by 2025,RUPTL 20212030 still shows high reliance on fossil fuels for the next decade,particularly coal.As of January 2023,there are 88 CFPPs operating across the country totaling 40.6 GW of installed capacity.An additional 18.9 GW of capacity is under construction,4.7 GW in the pre-permit and permi
95、t phase,and 2.8 GW announced(GEM,2022).In the past two decades,Indonesia has maintained steady additions of capacity to keep up with projected demand growth.These additions were made possible through a series of fast-tracked capacity expansion programs for CFPPs,with the aim of adding 42.5 GW capaci
96、ty by 2024(Antara News,2019).The realised demand growth has been consistently overestimated,resulting in excess capacities.Two of the largest grids in the country,Java-Bali and Sumatra,are expected to have a reserved margin of up to 60%and 56%by 2030,respectively,according to PLN forecasts.In essenc
97、e,the national grid is facing an oversupply over the next decade(IEEFA,2021a).The planning document has indicated that PLN will retire its CFPP fleet,hence aligning with the government commitment in achieving the carbon neutral target in 2060.Starting in 2030,the retirement will be done in stages an
98、d in accordance with Power Purchase Agreements(PPA)and economic life-cycle considerations.The plan proposes the first phase of CFPP retirement of 1.1 GW of subcritical units that have adequately reached the end of their designed lifetimes.The units located in Muara Karang,Tanjung Priok,Tambak Lorok,
99、dan Gresik have been operating for 5060 years,and are considered to be retired in 2030 in RUPTL 2021-2030(MEMR,2021).However,PLN may decide to prolong the operational lifetime of its plants by up to 20 years through refurbishment,retrofit or life extension for certain CFPPs that are still considered
100、 assets,as cited in RUPTL 2021-23(MEMR,2021,p.V-66).This would disrupt efforts to reach emission reduction targets.Total penambahan kapasitas daya,2021-2030Total:40,57 GWTermal/Fosil 19,7GW(48,4%)Energi terbarukan 20,9GW(51,6%)Source:RUPTL 2021-2030.*This category includes power generated from new a
101、nd renewable energy sources to supply baseload and peak load demand.The RUPTL indicates that baseload power plants under this category could cover hybrid renewable and gas power plants whose generation costs are lower than that of coal projects.Figure3.Shares of Additional Power Capacity Addition pe
102、r RUPTL 2021-2030(OECD,2021)Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia10National efforts and international supportBased on the historical electricity consumption trend,it is clear that the country should reduce or delay capacity expansion and pursue early retirement of
103、 the less efficient,older CFPPs,while load growth resumes.The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources started to work with PLN to develop a staged retirement plan,designed to meet Indonesias Net Zero Emissions 2060 roadmap.As the preliminary initial plan,PLN announced the targets to retire 1 GW of
104、CFPPs before 2030 and implement phased retirements up to 2055 when the last unabated CFPP is expected to be retired(Fiscal Policy Agency,2022).In October 2022,Presidential Regulation No.112 Year 2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity was issued.The
105、regulation showcases the countrys commitment to prioritising new and renewable power plants and transitioning away from fossil fuels.The regulation details that Indonesia will not allow additional CFPPs to be built after its issuance and set 2050 as the maximum limit of the operational year.New CFPP
106、s are only permitted for those that have been included in RUPTL and Indonesias National Strategic Project due to the expected contribution to job creation and economic growth.The regulation also includes that exceptions may apply to coal power plant operations that are able to fulfil the commitment
107、to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35%within 10 years since the start of operation,through technology implementation,carbon offsets,and/or renewables energy mix.The emissions baseline would be the average emission of PLTU in Indonesia in 2021(MEMR,2022a).The Government of Indonesia and t
108、he Asian Development Bank(ADB)officially introduced the Energy Transition Mechanism(ETM)Country Platform to pursue the countrys 2060 Net Zero Emissions target(MEMR,2022b)at the G20 Summit in November 2022.To achieve this and to reduce Indonesias carbon emissions by 32%by 2030,the country aims to spe
109、ed up the retirement of 33 coal power plants which amount to a total capacity of 16.8 GW.The ETM Country Platform targets acceleration of renewables and low-emissions technology development,and ultimately deploying 700 GW of renewable energy plants.The total required investment amount will be up to
110、USD 1 trillion(IDR 15 quadrillion)by 2060 with the support of international partners such as ADB,Islamic Development Bank,and World Bank(ADB,2022;MEMR,2022b).The initial retirement plan has been developed by Indonesia under the ADB ETM initiative,listing priority power plants that are best suited fo
111、r retirement before and after 2030.The annual capacities listed in this initial plan are illustrated in Figure 4 below.Annual Retirements(MW),2035-2035 by grid3.0002.0001.0000MW202620272028Java-Bali(PLN)Java-Bali(IPP)Sumatra(PLN)2029203020334Figure4.Annual future retirement plan of the co
112、al plants for Java Bali(PLN),Java Bali(IPP),and Sumatra(PLN)developed under the ADB ETM initiative(GEM,2022;Fiscal Policy Agency,2022).Source:GEM.(2022).Global Coal Plant Tracker.Indonesia.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia11At the same G20 Summit event,the Uni
113、ted States,European Union,Canada,Japan,and the UK announced the Just Energy Transition Partnership(JETP)with Indonesia to financially support the country in its climate targets and energy transition,and to keep in line with the 1.5 degrees target.The targets will be achieved through USD 20 billion i
114、n public and private funding over three to five years(European Commission,2022a).The partnership is meant to help Indonesia reach Net Zero Emissions by 2060 or sooner by accelerating the decarbonization of Indonesias power sector.This includes early retirement of some coal plants,while increasing th
115、e share of renewables.The agreement requires the country to cap its power sector emissions at 290 million tons(CO2)in 2030,down from the baseline value for 2030 of 357 million tons(CO2)(European Commission,2022b).The share of renewable energy in the electricity sector is to be increased from 23%to 3
116、4%by 2030.The agreement also includes the target of achieving net zero emissions in the power sector by 2050.In addition,the early retirement of coal-fired power plants will be prioritised as well as halting the pipeline of planned on-grid CFPPs included in the RUPTL(Ember,2023).Another form of inte
117、rnational support for Indonesias energy transition is the Climate Investment Funds(CIF)program Accelerating Coal Transition(ACT),an initiative to aid coal-dependent countries reduce their dependence on coal power and be on track to meet global commitments made in the 2016 Paris Agreement commitment(
118、CIF,2023).The ACT plan developed together with the ADB and World Bank,comprises three key elements:Accelerated CFPP Retirement;Governance,Just Transition and Repurposing;and Scale Up of Renewable Energy and Storage.Pollution control and emission regulation The air pollutants of greatest concern emit
119、ted by coal-fired power plants are fine particulate matter of PM2.5,sulphur dioxide(SO2),nitrogen dioxide(NOx),mercury,and other heavy metals.Due to relatively lax air pollutant emissions standards,the majority of Indonesias coal-fired power plants lack air pollutant control technologies for SO2 and
120、 NOx.These pollutants make a significant contribution to PM2.5 pollution through the formation and release of sulphate and nitrate aerosols,a form of PM2.5,in the atmosphere.In recent years,numerous new CFPPs have been built to meet the increasing electricity needs of Indonesia(GEM,2023).The share o
121、f CFPPs in total power generation has increased substantially in the Southeast Asian region,particularly in Indonesia,nearly doubling from about 25%in 1995 to 52%in 2014,reaching 67%in 2022(MEMR,2023b).Indonesia also has the highest share of coal-fired power in its generation mix among ASEAN countri
122、es(ERIA,2017).As highlighted by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia(ERIA),coal can be considered one of the cheapest fuel sources for power generation in terms of direct cost but comes at a significant cost of public health.While raising emissions standards generally leads to an
123、electricity tariff increase,this would be the most desirable and sustainable outcome for the country to allow proper installation and continued operation of Air Pollution Control(APC)equipment in all operational CFPPs.Once emission standards are implemented,the country has the responsibility to ensu
124、re proper management of APC and provide disclosure of monitoring records.Open access to these records serves as evidence for regulatory compliance,while simultaneously gaining public support,especially for those living close to CFPPs.ERIA highlights that the monitoring system should be highly transp
125、arent,monitoring levels at the plant level and the local regions.Indonesia has implemented two key regulations on controlling emissions from CFPPs:the Ministerial Decree of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry No 21.Year 2008 on Static Emission Sources Quality Standard for Business and/or Activi
126、ties of a Thermal Power Plant,and the Ministerial Decree of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry No.P.15/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUM.1/4/2019 on Emissions Quality Standard of Thermal Power Plant(Ministry of Environment and Forestry,2023).Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indo
127、nesia12The latter introduced standards for“new”coal power plants that are better aligned with standards enforced in other major coal-consuming countries.However,already permitted and under-construction power plants are not considered“new”by the government when enforcing the standards,allowing them t
128、o follow the lax standards for“existing”power plants.CFPPs with a capacity of 25 MW and higher,as well as CFPPs with a capacity of less than 25 MW that operate continuously and use coal with a sulphur content larger than 2%,are mandated to measure their emissions using a Continuous Emission Monitori
129、ng System(CEMS).The summary of the maximum levels of pollutants at coal plants is provided in Table 1 below.RegulationOperation yearSO2(mg/Nm)NOx(NO2)(mg/Nm)PM(mg/Nm)OpacityMercury(mg/Nm)Permen LHK No 21 Tahun 2008(prior)Before 01 Dec.200875085015020%After 01 Dec.200875075010020%Permen LHK No.P.15/M
130、ENLHK/SETJEN/KUM.1/4/2019 (in-force)Before 23 April 20 0.03After 23 April 201920020050 0.03Table1.Summary of Indonesias CFPP maximum emission limitsA three-year project,“Transparent Pollution Control in Indonesia”that runs from March 2021 until February 2024,aims to support Indonesia in r
131、eaching international goals of energy transition.Indonesia receives financial support from the EU to improve industrial pollution monitoring,through the implementation of the Pollutant Release and Transfer Register(PRTR).The project also aims to establish a stronger civil advocacy network in Indones
132、ia,to engage with the national stakeholders and push for an immediate response(EEAS,2021;Simon,2023).Nexus3 Foundation highlights the urgent need to control air pollution,citing the 2019 Citizen Lawsuit submitted by 32 citizens which is addressed to President Joko Widodo,the Minister of Environment
133、and Forestry,Minister of Health,and Minister of Internal Affairs,as well as the Governor of West Java and the Governor of Banten.Air pollution in Jakarta is mainly associated with six coal-fired power plants located in the nearby three provinces,emissions from millions of vehicles,and industrial act
134、ivities.High levels of pollution have been a result of unenforced emissions testing and a lack of national and subnational efforts to reduce pollutant release(Nexus3 Foundation,2021).Methodology13Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia14This study quantifies the hea
135、lth impacts of air pollutant emissions from coal power generation in Indonesia using the impact pathway approach.This approach is the most common way to study the health impacts of air pollutant sources,following the chain of causation from emissions,to atmospheric dispersion and chemical transforma
136、tion,population exposure,resulting health impacts,and the economic cost of those health impacts.The impacts are quantified for a range of future pathways,from the pathway implied by the current regulations,as well as a pathway that is aligned with 1.5 degrees target for utility power plants and a pa
137、thway that is aligned with 1.5 degrees target for both captive and utility power plants.The study also quantifies the long-term impacts of mandating more stringent air pollutant emission controls and different levels of biomass co-firing.The analysis carried out in this work is done by:(1)Developing
138、 a plant-by-plant inventory of emissions;(2)Estimating pollution dispersion from CFPPs through atmospheric modelling;(3)Quantifying air pollution health impacts resulting from changes in ambient concentration;and(4)Valuing health impacts in monetary terms using a cost of illness method.The analysis
139、was carried out in a spatial grid with a 5x5 km resolution,with health impacts calculated for each grid cell.All datasets were aggregated or interpolated to this resolution as required.Emissions inventoryCREA compiled a plant-level emissions inventory of all operational CFPPs in Indonesia,to be used
140、 as inputs to air quality modelling.The inventory includes plant-specific information on combustion and generation technologies,power generation capacity and plant location,pollutant flue gas concentrations.It also includes stack information,namely stack height and diameter,flue gas release velocity
141、,and temperature.The stack characteristics are used to model plume release height and the thermal rise of pollutants.The first compilation on existing,under construction,and planned coal power plants were taken from the Global Energy Monitor(GEM)Global Coal Plant Tracker(GCPT)(GEM,2023).Basic inform
142、ation includes plant coordinates,generating capacity,start year of operation,and status(operating,under construction,permitted,pre-permit,announced).The initial inventory is then cross-verified and complemented with information compiled from local partners.Further data compilation was conducted to o
143、btain available data on plant-specific emissions data from official reports,voluntary operator reports,Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA)documents,national emissions standards and other relevant regulations.Since the emission volumes of coal-fired power plants are not disclosed publicly in Indones
144、ia,emissions mass rate(E)of the main air pollutants(SO2,NOx,PM)were calculated using the formula:E=x SFGV x FGCCAPXCFEFFwhere CAP is the gross electric generation capacity of the plant unit(MW),EFF is the thermal efficiency(gross,on Lower Heating Value(LHV)basis,in MJ/kg),CF is the capacity factor,S
145、FGV is the specific flue gas volume of the coal(Nm3/GJ)and FGC is the flue gas concentration of the pollutant(mg/Nm3).Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia15Mercury emissions were calculated as:E=x x CHg x(1-C)CAPXCF1EFFCALWhere CAL is the calorific value of the c
146、oal,CHg is the mercury content in coal and CE is the mercury control efficiency.Information on FGC was collected from a wide range of sources including the plant operators website,their CSR and financial reports as well as data from environmental impact assessments.We also sourced academic studies t
147、hat had plant-specific data.The information was then generalised to other power plants,creating separate categories for small plants(c0where Pop is the total population in the grid location,age is the analysed age group(in the case of age-dependent concentration-response functions,a 5-year age segme
148、nt;in other cases,the total age range to which the function is applicable),Fracage is the fraction of the population belonging to the analysed age group,Incidenceage is the baseline incidence of the analysed health condition,and conc is the pollutant concentration,with concbase referring to the base
149、line concentration(current ambient concentration).RR(conc,age)is the function giving the risk ratio of the analysed health outcome at the given concentration for the given age group compared with clean air.In the case of a log-linear,non-age-specific concentration-response function,the RR function b
150、ecomes:RR(c)=1 otherwise,where RR0 is the risk ratio found in epidemiological research,c0 is the concentration change that RR0,and c0 is the assumed no-harm concentration(in general,the lowest concentration found in study data).Data on total population and population age structure were taken from Gl
151、obal Burden of Disease results for 2019(Global Burden of Disease,2020),distributed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation(IHME)(IHME,2020).The spatial distribution of population within each city and country,as projected for 2020,was based on the Gridded Population of the World v4 from th
152、e Center for International Earth Science Information Network(CIESIN,2018).Following the update of the WHO Air Quality Guidelines(WHO,2021),which now recognizes health harm from NO2 at low concentrations,we use the mortality risk function for NO2 based on the findings of Huangfu and Atkinson(2020),an
153、d include impacts down to 4.5 g/m3,the lowest concentration level in studies that found increased mortality risk,tabulated in Table 2.Adult deaths were estimated using the risk functions developed by Burnett et al.(2018),as applied by Lelieveld et al.(2019).Deaths of children under the age of five f
154、rom lower respiratory infections linked to PM2.5 pollution were assessed using the Global Burden of Disease risk function for lower respiratory diseases(IHME,2020).For all mortality results,cause-specific data were taken from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease project results(IHME,2020).Health benefi
155、ts of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia19Health impact modelling projects the effects of pollutant exposure during the study year.Some health impacts are immediate,such as exacerbation of asthma symptoms and lost working days,whereas other chronic impacts may have a latency of s
156、everal years.Concentration-response relationships for emergency room visits for asthma and work absences were based on studies that evaluated daily variations in pollutant concentrations and health outcomes.These relationships were applied to changes in annual average concentrations.The annual avera
157、ge baseline concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 were taken from van Donkelaar et al.(2021)and Larkin et al.(2017),respectively.Since the no-harm concentration for SO2 is very low and the risk function is linear with respect to the background concentration,there was no need for data on SO2 background con
158、centrations.To understand the health impacts in the future,the study took into account the projected changes in population,population age structure,and mortality by age group,based on the UNDP(2019)World Population Prospects Medium Variant.This factors in the expected reduction in baseline infant mo
159、rtality and increase in premature deaths from chronic diseases in older adults as a part of the population and epidemiological transitions and improvements in health care.In 2022,CREA provided the Institute for Essential Services Reform and the University of Maryland health impact assessments,which
160、estimated 8,700 deaths caused by emissions from coal-fired power plants every year.This report incorporates far more detailed air pollutant dispersion modelling and refined emissions inventories and takes into account the health impacts of exposure to SO2 and NO2,in addition to PM2.5.Table2.Input pa
161、rameters and data used in estimating physical health impactsAge groupEffectPollutantConcentration response functionConcentration changeNo-risk thresholdReferenceIncidence data118New asthma casesNO21.26 (1.10 1.37)10 ppb2 ppbKhreis et al.(2017)Achakulwisut et al.(2019)017Asthma emergency room visitsP
162、M2.51.025 (1.013 1.037)10 g/m36 g/m3Zheng et al.(2015)Anenberg et al.(2018)1899Asthma emergency room visitsPM2.51.023 (1.015 1.031)10 g/m36 g/m3Zheng et al.(2015)Anenberg et al.(2018)NewbornPreterm birthPM2.51,15(1.07 1.16)10 g/m38.8 g/m3Sapkota et al.(2012)Chawan Paiboon et al.(2018)2065Work absenc
163、ePM2.51.046(1.039 1.053)10 g/m3N/AWHO(2013)EEA(2014)04Deaths from lower respiratory infectionsPM2.5IHME(2020)5.8 g/m3IHME(2020)IHME(2020)2599Deaths from noncommunicable diseases,disaggregated by cause,and from lower respiratory infectionsPM2.5Burnett et al.(2018)2.4 g/m3Burnett et al.(2018)IHME(2020
164、)Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia202599Disability caused by diabetes,stroke and chronic respiratory diseasePM2.5IHME(2020)2.4 g/m3Burnett et al.(2018)IHME(2020)2599Premature deathsNO21.02(1.01 1.04)10 g/m34.5 g/m3Huangfu&Atkinson(2020);NRT dari Stieb et al.(2
165、021)IHME(2020)2599Premature deathsSO21.02 (1.011.03)5 ppb0.02 ppbKrewski et al.(2009)IHME(2020)Note:Numeric values in the column“Concentration-response function”refer to odds ratio corresponding to the increase in concentrations given in the column“concentration change.”Literature references indicat
166、e the use of a non-linear concentration-response function.No-harm threshold refers to a concentration below which the health impact is not quantified,generally because the studies on which the function is based did not include people with lower exposure levels.Data on concentration-response relation
167、ships do not exist for all geographies,so a global risk model is applied to all cities.Incidence data are generally unavailable at the city level so national averages have to be applied.Air pollution increases the risk of developing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and complications related t
168、o them,significantly lowering the quality of life and economic productivity of people affected while increasing healthcare costs.Economic losses as a result of air pollution were calculated using the methods outlined in Myllyvirta(2020).The valuation of deaths was updated to the values derived by Vi
169、scusi and Masterman(2017)which are based on labour market data,and pay particular attention to applicability in middle-and low-income countries.The Global Burden of Disease project has quantified the degree of disability caused by each disease into a“disability weight”that can be used to compare the
170、 costs of different illnesses.The economic cost of disability and reduced quality of life caused by these diseases and disabilities are assessed based on disability weights,combined with the economic valuation of disability used by the UK environmental regulator Department for Environment Food and R
171、ural Affairs(Birchby et al.,2019),and adjusted by GNI PPP for Indonesia.The deaths of young children are valued at twice the valuation of adult deaths,following OECDs recommendations(2012).The valuation of future health impacts is based on the premise that the long-term social discount rate is equal
172、 to the long-term GDP growth rate,and the economic loss associated with different health impacts is proportional to the GDP,resulting in a constant present value of health impacts over time.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia21Cost of air pollution controlsInsta
173、llation and operating costs for air pollution controls(APC)were compiled from a range of sources,shown in Table A4 in the Appendix.We transferred these costs to Indonesian cost levels by first converting the reported costs to current prices in U.S.dollars,and then using the cross-country estimates o
174、f the relative costs of flue gas desulfurization(FGD)and selective catalytic reduction(SCR)(Ferrari et al.,2019)to calculate the average transferred costs,shown in Table A4 in the Appendix.Since Ferrari et al.did not estimate dust control costs,we used the sum of FGD and SCR costs as an indicator of
175、 the relative costs of dust controls,as the relative costs of the different control systems are likely to be closely correlated.Table A5 in the Appendix shows the estimated average costs of the different APC technologies in Indonesia.We used this data to project the additional costs from meeting the
176、 more stringent emission standards assumed in the APC scenario,compared with the current APC costs plants have to incur already to meet current national standards.This means that existing plants already have particulate matter controls to operate.This study assumes the inclusion of investment in a r
177、ebuilt dust control system to meet more stringent standards,without an increase in operating costs.SO2 and NOx controls need to be added,with their full capital and operating costs included as an additional cost.Unlike existing plants,new plants in Indonesia are already mandated to install FGD,and S
178、NCR and dust controls to comply with national emission standards.We assumed that the additional capital and operating costs of a higher-performance FGD and dust control are 50%of the full cost shown in Table A5,a conservative assumption.For NOx control,we assumed that the plants installed SCR instea
179、d of SNCR,and assigned the difference as an additional cost.For future projections,we assumed that the cost escalation of the APC technologies is equal to the long-term average GDP growth rate.OutcomeValuation at world average GDP/GNI per capita(2017 int.USD)Valuation in IndonesiaReference(current U
180、SD)(current USD)Work absence(sick leave days)8522335,300EEA(2014)Number of children suffering from asthma due to pollution exposure(increased prevalence)1,0772744,228,000Brandt et al.(2012)Deaths2,637,000663,90010,260,000,000Viscusi&Masterman(2017)Deaths of children under 55,273,0001,328,00020,510,0
181、00,000OECD(2012)Asthma emergency room visits23259911,800Brandt et al.(2012)Preterm births107,70027,370422,800,000Trasande et al.(2016)Years lived with disability28,4807,171110,800,000Birchby et al.(2019)Table3.Input parameters and data used to estimate economic costs of health impacts22Evaluationofd
182、ifferentphase-outtimelinesHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia23Table4.Scenario matrix of Indonesias pathways to a Just Energy TransitionCREA has developed and modelled three distinct scenario pathways based on CFPP retirement schedules applicable to the national
183、 electricity provider namely PLN and the IPPs,CFPP retirement schedule applicable to captive power plants,implementation of co-firing in CFPP operation,and installation of Air Pollution Control(APC)technologies.A summary of the scenarios considered in this study is tabulated in Table 4.ScenarioPLN&I
184、PP Retirement ScheduleCaptive Power Retirement ScheduleBiomass Co-firingAir Pollution Control RetrofitPERPRES 112/2022-referred to as current policies in this study14 GW of PLN&IPP power plants are retired by 2035,while the remaining are retired by 2050All captive power plants are retired after 30 y
185、ears of operationPhased increase of co-firing share,reaching 20%at PLN power plants by 2030APCs are installed to follow the current national emission limits until end-of-life1.5 degrees,excluding captive power plantsRetirement schedule aligned with IESR-UMD optimised pathway Co-firing maintained at
186、currently committed levels,i.e.5%at most PLN power plantsAPCs are installed to follow the current national emission limits until end-of-life1.5 degreesRetirement schedule aligned with IESR-UMD optimised pathway It should be noted that the study considers the retirement schedule defined in the Presid
187、ential Regulation(Peraturan Presiden,Perpres)No.112 Year 2022 as the baseline scenario.Under PERPRES 112/2022 scenario,a total capacity of 14 GW of PLN and IPP coal plants is to be retired by 2035,while the remaining plants retire by 2050.Captive plants are assumed to retire after 30 years of operat
188、ion.Furthermore,biomass co-firing is increased to a minimum of 20%by 2030 at PLN power plants to contribute towards the 34%renewable energy target by 2030 set in JETP.APC technology is installed and follows current emission limits until the end-of-life for the plants.The pathway for retiring Indones
189、ias coal-fired plants in order to meet the global commitment to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees by 2030 is derived from the report Financing Indonesias Coal Phase-out by IESR and the University of Maryland(Cui et al.,2022).The 1.5 degrees scenarios developed in this study maximi
190、se the health benefits of the coal phase-out.Under this consideration,the plants with the highest health costs per unit of power generated are retired first within each electric grid.The 1.5 degrees scenario excluding captive power plants assumes them to be retired after 30 years of operation.With t
191、he inclusion of captive power plants,the scenario assumes their retirement to be aligned with IESR-UMDs optimised pathway.This pathway suggests that Indonesias coal power generation would decrease by 11%in 2030,by over 90%in 2040,and would be completely phased out by 2045.In absolute numbers,18 plan
192、ts would retire by the end of the decade,39 between 2031 and 2040.The remaining 15 of the 72 non-captive coal plants would be operated at low utilisation levels beyond 2040,and retired by 2045.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia24Implications on air pollutionCoa
193、l-based power plants emit large amounts of pollutants,namely SOX,NOx,and PM,and also heavy metals.This study estimates that all operating coal plants in Indonesia emitted 399 kilotons(kt)of SOx,349 kt of NOx,and 73 kt of PM in 2022.Furthermore,an estimated 7,100 kg of mercury was emitted in the same
194、 period.Not only do these power plant emissions affect populations in the vicinity of the plants,pollutants are also carried by wind and other atmospheric conditions to farther locations resulting in nation-wide consequences.Figure 7 shows the maximum 1-hour and 24-hour concentrations of NO2,SO2,and
195、 PM2.5 attributed to coal power in 2022,and it shows high concentration levels of all pollutants throughout Indonesia.We chose between 1-hour and 24-hour maximum plots for each pollutant based on the metric used in the WHO 2005 Air Quality Guidelines which are the basis for Indonesias national stand
196、ards.The major hotspots of coal power plant pollution in Indonesia are Banten,Central Sulawesi,Central Java,Riau,Maluku,and North Maluku.Emissions in Banten are dominated by PLN power plants,of which more than half are relatively old(commissioned before 2010).In all the listed provinces outside of J
197、ava,captive power plants commissioned after 2010 dominate the emissions.In Central Java,relatively new IPP power plants are the main source.Figures 8,9,and 10 visualise the annual mean concentrations of each pollutant type in 2035 by scenario.They are the PERPRES 112/2022 scenario,the 1.5 degrees sc
198、enario excluding captive power,and the 1.5 degrees scenario.By 2035,there would be large improvements in air quality by following a coal power retirement pathway that is aligned with the 1.5 degrees target,as shown in the bottom images.Also,for all of the pollutants,there are major changes in air qu
199、ality between the 1.5 degrees scenario that includes captive power plants retirement and the 1.5 degrees scenario that excludes captive retirement,as shown in the middle and bottom images respectively,especially in Eastern Indonesia where most of the captive power plant fleet is located.Health benef
200、its of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia25Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure7.Maximum 1-hour and 24-hour concentrations from all coal power plants in Indonesia by pollutant in 2022Modeled sourcesModeled sourcesHealth benefits of Just Energy Transitio
201、n and coal phase-out in Indonesia26Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure8.Visualised distribution of coal power plants and mean NO2 concentrations in Indonesia by scenario in 2035Modeled sourcesHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia27Sourc
202、e:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure9.Visualised distribution of coal power plants and mean PM2.5 concentrations in Indonesia by scenario in 2035Modeled sourcesHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia28Modeled sourcesSource:Centre for Research o
203、n Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure10.Visualised distribution of coal power plants and mean SO2 concentrations in Indonesia by scenario in 2035Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia29Health impacts and cost implicationsAnnual impactsUnder the current policy measure
204、,PERPRES 112/2022,air pollution from coal-fired power plants was accountable for an estimated 10,500(95%CI:6,50016,400)deaths in 2022(as illustrated in Figure 11)and health costs amounted to USD 7.4 billion(IDR 109.9 trillion;95%CI:USD 4.611.5 billion,IDR 67.6170.3 trillion).Air pollution-related de
205、aths are on the rise,and are expected to peak in 2028,with nearly 16,600 deaths annually-nearly a 60%increase in just six years.Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure11.Air pollution-related deaths by year and by scenarioCorresponding with the slow phase-out of power plants,
206、deaths are expected to reduce slowly after peaking in the late 2020s.Air pollution would continue to burden society beyond 2050 if Indonesia continues with its current policies.With an opportunity to accelerate coal phase-out by 2040,the country should prioritise cancellation of the coal power plant
207、s that are planned but not yet under construction and replace coal capacity needs with renewable sources.These measures would kick-start national efforts in a Just Transition.As illustrated in Figure 11,air pollution-related deaths and costs would reach an earlier peak in 2026,followed by a rapid de
208、cline to reach zero in both deaths and economic costs by 2041 under the 1.5 degrees scenario.The magnitude of deaths linked to air pollution from coal power plants at the provincial level is illustrated in Figure 12.West Java(Jawa Barat)is the most affected province by coal-fired power emissions wit
209、h annual deaths exceeding 4,000(95%CI:2,5666,438).West Java is followed by Banten with 2,000(95%CI:1,3083,406)deaths per year,and Central Java(Jawa Tengah)with 1,700(95%CI:1,0902,749)annual deaths.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia30Source:Centre for Research o
210、n Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure12.Top 10 provinces most affected by coal power emissionsFigure 13 shows the estimates of air pollution deaths attributed to the provinces where the coal power plants are located.Provinces whose emissions are responsible for the greatest of annual deaths are Banten
211、,Central Java(Jawa Tengah),and West Java(Jawa Barat).Bantens CFPPs can be linked to an estimated 3,800 deaths,while air pollutant emissions from CFPPs located in Central Java and West Java cause an estimated 3,000 and 2,500 annual deaths,respectively.These major provinces located on the island of Ja
212、va,have the largest capacity-wise and the highest count of coal-fired power plants in all of Indonesia.Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure13.Top 10 provinces responsible for the largest number of deaths per yearHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out
213、in Indonesia31Cumulative impactsAs illustrated in Figure 14,the cumulative deaths would reach nearly 303,000 deaths from 2024 till all plants reach the end of their life(95%CI:188,700498,000)under the current policies.All health costs would amount to USD 212 billion(IDR 3.2 quadrillion;95%CI:USD 132
214、.5327.9 billion,IDR 2.04.9 quadrillion).The 1.5 degrees scenario that excludes captive plants would lead to significantly lower deaths and health costs,with cumulative deaths halved at 148,000(95%CI:91,400231,000).The economic burden to society would also halve at USD 104 billion(IDR 1.5 quadrillion
215、;95%CI:USD 63.7161.2 billion,IDR 0.92.4 quadrillion).If captive power plants were to be retired early by 2040,greater national benefits can be achieved.Approximately 180,000 air pollution-related deaths and USD 127 billion(IDR 1.9 trillion)in health costs can be avoided.Source:Centre for Research on
216、 Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure14.Cumulative deaths and health costs from 2024 onwards by scenarioAir pollution has a particularly profound impact on newborns,causing low birth weight,premature births and asthma to name a few.In adults,health impacts include diabetes,stroke and chronic obstructiv
217、e pulmonary disease.These give rise to work absences due to the need to take sick leave or care for someone else who is sick and this burdens any economy.The estimated cumulative health impacts are significant under the current policy.A large extent could be avoided through better alignment with the
218、 1.5 degrees target.As shown in Table 5,the 1.5 degrees scenario would avoid over half the number of sick leave days,new cases of asthma in children,total cases of children suffering from asthma due to pollution exposure,asthma emergency room visits,low birthweight births,and preterm births compared
219、 to the PERPRES 112/2022 scenario.For instance,the number of children suffering from asthma due to pollution exposure would decrease from 240,323 to 107,494.Meanwhile,the 1.5 degrees scenario that excludes captive coal plants from the retirement assumption would still bring significant reduction to
220、120,091,less than half of the number of cases estimated in the PERPRES 112/2022 scenario.Similarly,the calculated years of lives lost due to NO2 and SO2 exposure are significantly reduced in the 1.5 degrees scenarios compared to the PERPRES 112/2022 scenario.The greatest improvements would be in the
221、 years of lives lost from SO2 exposure,as the 1.5 degree scenario would reduce years of lives lost by 59%.The reduction in the years of lives lost due to NO2 exposure would also be significant,at 58%.Excluding captive plants from the 1.5 degrees scenario would lead to about 10%smaller reductions.Hea
222、lth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia32When it comes to the years lived with disabilities,the scenarios aligning with the 1.5 degrees target including optimised captive power plant retirement would reduce those years by as much as 6070%.The years lived with chronic o
223、bstructive pulmonary disease,diabetes,or stroke would reduce by more than a half in the 1.5 degrees excluding captive scenario,but the reduction would be even higher in the 1.5 degrees scenario.Outcome1.5 Degrees1.5 degrees excluding captivePERPRES 112/2022Counts of sick leave daysWork absence48,831
224、,08355,968,109114,352,550Number of casesNew cases of asthma in children70,68982,869146,902Total cases of asthma in children302,495354,636628,652Asthma emergency room visits107,494120,091240,323Low birthweight births34,27338,39673,539Preterm births50,51455,753107,180Years of lives lostAll causes from
225、 NO2 exposure645,845795,7561,521,544All causes from SO2 exposure403,125501,943974,158Years lived with disabilityChronic obstructive pulmonary disease41,16948,772103,933Diabetes27,34140,47982,491Stroke87,160101,923217,926Table5.Central estimate of cumulative health impacts by scenarioHealth benefits
226、of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia33Benefits of prioritising plants with worst health impactsThere is wide variation in health impacts per unit of electricity generated between different coal-fired power plants in Indonesia,owing to differences in plant location and emission i
227、ntensity of the plants.Figure 15 illustrates the variance in health costs distribution across the region of Java-Bali-Sumatra,Kalimantan,Sulawesi,and others based on CFPP ownership categories,namely PLN,IPP,combination of PLN and IPP,and captive.Across Java-Bali-Sumatra,impacts are nearly exclusivel
228、y attributed to PLN and IPP.In the remaining regions,particularly Sulawesi and other regions,captive power plants would be the primary contributors to air pollution from coal power.As for Kalimantan,considerable contributions are apparent from both captive and PLN-owned power plants.Source:Centre fo
229、r Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure15.Distribution of health costs by plant in different regionsThe plants with the highest health costs are ones located in or near densely populated areas,with meteorological conditions that lead to high exposure of the population to the plant emissions,
230、e.g.due to prevailing wind directions,and poor emission control performance.Clear examples are the PLN Muara Karang and Lontar power plants located in Jakarta and Tangerang,as well as the captive coal power plants located in Bekasi,Karawang,Purwakarta,and Bandung.A full list of CFPPs is provided in
231、Table 6 below where the coal power plants are ranked from the highest to the lowest health cost per unit of electricity generated in each region.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia34Coal Power PlantCoal Province PlantRegionOwnerCapacity(MW)Muara KarangJakarta Ra
232、yaJava-Bali-SumatraPLN400LontarBantenJava-Bali-SumatraPLN1,260CirebonJawa BaratJava-Bali-SumatraIPP660Jawa-1/Cirebon-2Jawa BaratJava-Bali-SumatraIPP924CilacapJawa TengahJava-Bali-SumatraIPP2,260AtambuaNusa Tenggara TimurOthersPLN24Parit Baru ExpansionKalimantan BaratKalimantanPLN100Pantai Kura-KuraK
233、alimantan BaratKalimantanPLN55EmbalutKalimantan TimurKalimantanIPP100Asam-AsamKalimantan SelatanKalimantanPLN460Sumbawa BaratNusa Tenggara BaratOthersPLN14Rote NdaoNusa Tenggara TimurOthersPLN6BimaNusa Tenggara BaratOthersPLN20AlorNusa Tenggara TimurOthersPLN6RopaNusa Tenggara TimurOthersPLN14Nii Ta
234、nasaSulawesi TenggaraSulawesiPLN30PunagayaSulawesi SelatanSulawesiPLN220Sulsel BarruSulawesi SelatanSulawesiPLN200JenepontoSulawesi SelatanSulawesiIPP450TalaudSulawesi UtaraSulawesiPLN6FAJAR power stationJawa BaratJava-Bali-Sumatracaptive55Pindo-Deli-Ii power stationJawa BaratJava-Bali-Sumatracaptiv
235、e50Cikarang Babelan power stationJawa BaratJava-Bali-Sumatracaptive280Table6.Coal power plants ranked from the highest estimated health costs per unit of electricity generated in each grid region,separated into utility and captive power plantsHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-
236、out in Indonesia35Indo Bharat Rayon power stationJawa BaratJava-Bali-Sumatracaptive36.6Bandung Indosyntec power stationJawa BaratJava-Bali-Sumatracaptive30Bengkayang Power StationKalimantan BaratKalimantancaptive100Kalimantan Cement Works power stationKalimantan SelatanKalimantancaptive55Tabalong Wi
237、sesa power stationKalimantan SelatanKalimantancaptive60Ketapang Smelter power stationKalimantan BaratKalimantancaptive220Adaro Aluminum Smelter power stationKalimantan TimurKalimantancaptive2,200Batu Hijau power stationNusa Tenggara BaratOtherscaptive124East Halmahera power stationMaluku UtaraOthers
238、captive90Amamapare Port power stationPapuaOtherscaptive195MSP Pulau Obi power stationMaluku UtaraOtherscaptive114Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co Captive power stationMaluku UtaraOtherscaptive114Tonasa Cement Plant power stationSulawesi SelatanSulawesicaptive70Pomalaa Nickel power stationSulawesi Tengg
239、araSulawesicaptive60Delong NickelSulawesi TengahSulawesicaptive4,665Qingdao Zhongsheng captive power stationSulawesi TengahSulawesicaptive390Wanxiang Nickel Indonesia power stationSulawesi TengahSulawesicaptive130Retirement pathways developed in the 1.5 degrees scenarios prioritise the plants with t
240、he highest health impacts.This greatly increases the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of the coal phase-out.If the logic of retiring the oldest plants first were to apply,the number of air pollution-related deaths in the current policies scenario would increase by 36,000 cases.Health cost tren
241、ds are shown in Figure 16,where the dashed lines represent the higher costs that can be attributed to age-based retirement in both the 1.5 degrees scenario and the PERPRES 112/2022 scenario.Cumulative health costs would increase by USD 12 billion(IDR 180 trillion)higher from the optimised health-bas
242、ed retirement schedule developed for the 1.5 degrees scenario,and by USD 24 billion(IDR 360 trillion)higher from the PERPRES 112/2022 scenario.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia36Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA).Figure16.Air pollution-re
243、lated costs by scenario with age-based retirement.37EvaluationofairpollutioncontrolimplementationHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia38In contrast to the minor benefits of co-firing,air pollution control can have a large impact on the economy,public health,resili
244、ence,sustainability,and above all,the air quality of Indonesia and its population.Further concrete actions are needed to sustain the momentum started in the Transparent Pollution Control project(EEAS,2021)and best align national efforts and international support for the benefit of all Indonesian peo
245、ple.The country needs to enforce stronger and actionable national planning to better address ongoing air pollution issues by shifting away from the use of coal as an energy source.As reported by IQAir,residents of many major cities in Java and other highly polluted metropolitan areas of Indonesia ar
246、e exposed to unhealthy levels well above the WHO thresholds throughout the year(IQAir,2023).While immediate restricting actions on coal energy generation at the national level would bring significant reduction in coal power emissions,the consideration for proper installation of air pollution control
247、 technology is essential during the coming decades.Between now and 2030,trajectories of power generation capacity and the associated health impacts are expected to still move upward before reaching the peak and decreasing.Based on this consideration,we included an additional analysis to the main thr
248、ee scenarios presented in the previous chapter.We quantified the health and economic impacts of the current PERPRES 112/2022 scenario with air pollution control technology and the 1.5 degrees scenario with air pollution controls implemented.The tabulation of the assumptions is provided in Table 7.In
249、 the scenarios where air pollution control is implemented,new coal power plants are assumed to be equipped with efficient air pollution control technology by 2026 and existing plants by 2030.This assumption was not applied to those existing plants that are scheduled to retire by 2035.Table7.Scenario
250、 matrix of APC assumptions in the two main scenarios-PERPRES 112/2022 and 1.5 degreesScenarioPLN&IPP Retirement ScheduleCaptive Power Retirement ScheduleBiomass Co-firingAir Pollution Control RetrofitPERPRES 112/2022-referred to as current policies in this study14 GW of PLN&IPP power plants are reti
251、red by 2035,while the remaining are retired by 2050All captive power plants are retired after 30 years of operationPhased increase of co-firing share,reaching 20%at PLN power plants by 2030APCs are installed to follow the current national emission limits until end-of-lifePERPRES 112/2022,with APCNew
252、 plants are required to install efficient SO2,NOx and dust controls by 2026 and existing plants by 2030,unless they retire by 20351.5 degreesRetirement schedule aligned with IESR-UMD optimised pathwayRetirement schedule aligned with IESR-UMD optimised pathway Co-firing maintained at currently commit
253、ted levels,i.e.5%at most PLN power plantsAPCs are installed to follow the current national emission limits until end-of-life1.5 degrees,with APCNew plants are required to install efficient SO2,NOx and dust controls by 2026 and existing plants by 2030,unless they retire by 2035Health benefits of Just
254、 Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia39We referred to the European Union Best Available Technique Reference Document(BREF)as the benchmark for efficient air pollution controls(European Commission,2017).This document specifies a range of emission levels that are consistent with the use o
255、f best available air pollution control techniques.We applied the higher(more lenient)end of the ranges,which is the level that all power plants in the EU are legally required to meet.Therefore,there is a lot of experience of retrofitting existing coal-fired power plants to meet the standards.In the
256、case of the EU,existing power plants are generally much older than those in Indonesia.DescriptionValueUnitCapacity retrofit with APC43,440MWNewbuild capacity with APC5,450MWTotal investment cost6,936102,997mln USDbln IDRTotal operating cost,per year(2035)68410,150mln USDbln IDRTotal operating cost,f
257、rom installation year to end-of-life13,569201,491mln USDbln IDRHealth cost avoided in 20355,82886,546mln USDbln IDRTotal health costs avoided,from installation year to end-of-life90,4411,343,037mln USDbln IDRNet economic benefit69,9371,038,549mln USDbln IDRTable8.Air Pollution Control installation c
258、osts in the“current policies with APC”scenarioApproximately 8,000 deaths in 2035 alone could be avoided if the current policies scenario would include the installation of proper APC,as well as USD 5.8 billion(IDR 86.5 trillion)in air pollution-related health costs.In cumulative terms,a total of 129,
259、000 deaths and health costs of USD 90 billion(IDR 1.3 quadrillion)could be avoided if coal power plants were required to install efficient dust,NOx,and SO2 controls.Installing APC is highly profitable from the point of view of the whole society.Health costs that are saved significantly outweigh the
260、implementation costs of air pollution control.We project net economic savings to the society of USD 70 billion(IDR 1.1 quadrillion)in the current policies scenario with APC installation,compared with current policies with no improvements in APC requirements.The analysis has taken into account the in
261、vestment and operating costs of the APC.Further details on the costs for the APC technologies considered in this study are provided in Tables A4 and A5 in the Appendix.Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia402035ScenarioDeathsCosts,USD mlnPERPRES 112/202212,2168,58
262、6PERPRES 112/2022 w/APC3,9312,7581.5 degrees1,7921,2851.5 degrees w/APC1,119808Table9.Deaths and costs in 2035 in different scenariosCompared to the more significant impacts that would result from delayed coal phase-out in the PERPRES 112/2022 scenario,the avoided deaths and costs between the 1.5 de
263、grees scenario and the 1.5 degrees scenario with APC installation are relatively small.This is mainly due to the fact that most coal power plants were assumed to retire by 2035 in the 1.5 degrees pathway,and therefore not required to further improve their APC under our assumptions.Furthermore,our an
264、alysis shows that the required investment and operating costs of the APC remain low,and the installation of improved APC is beneficial from a cost-benefit perspective.The 1.5 degrees scenario with APC has by far the lowest air pollution-related deaths,as well as costs and other health impacts.Tabula
265、tion of health impacts and costs is provided in Tables A1 and A2 in the Appendix.CumulativeScenarioDeathsCosts,USD mlnPERPRES 112/2022302,800212,500PERPRES 112/2022 w/APC174,200112,1001.5 degrees121,00085,0001.5 degrees w/APC115,80081,400Table10.Cumulative deaths and costs from 2024 onwards in diffe
266、rent scenarios41Evaluationofco-firingimplementationHealth benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia42While co-firing biomass can reduce emissions of air pollutants to a degree,it is no solution to Indonesias air pollution challenge.We project that raising the share of co-fir
267、ing to a minimum of 20%at all PLN power plants a major challenge in terms of the availability of biomass and potentially also a technical challenge has little to virtually no impact on the emissions of air pollutants from coal power plants.Figure 17 below shows the effect of different biomass shares
268、 on PM,NOx,and SO2 emissions.While pollutant emissions show noticeable reductions at higher biomass shares,PLNs current target of 10%biomass share would deliver only a 9%emission reduction in particulate matter,about 7%in NOx and 10%in SO2 at power plants where it is applied.The effect on emissions
269、is derived from a large dataset comprising hundreds of combustion plants,making it representative of the aggregate effect,even considering variation between individual plants.Source:Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA)analysis based on European Environment Agency(EEA)data.Figure17.Corre
270、lation between biomass share and emissions for dust,NOx,and SO2CREAs analysis shows that merely 1.52.4%reduction,depending on the pollutant,can be expected in Indonesias total coal power plant emissions as a result of co-firing,when co-firing is limited to PLN power plants.In contrast,requiring effi
271、cient emission control technology installations in all plants operating beyond 2035 would effectively reduce emissions of SOx by an estimated 73%,NOx by 64%,dust by 86%,and mercury by 71%.As part of PLNs Green Booster program,biomass co-firing is expected to account for about 3.6%out of the 23%renew
272、ables share in 2023 as defined in RUPTL 20212030(OECD,2021).PLN estimates an average of 10.2 million tonnes of biomass to be supplied annually to substitute 12%of coal use(PLN,2023).In 2022,PLN was able to realise 0.455 million tonnes Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in I
273、ndonesia43of biomass supply,from sawdust(90%),woodchips(3%),palm shells(5%),and other biomass feedstock(2%).Supply targets will ramp up to 2.2 million tonnes in 2023,2.83 million tonnes in 2024,and will reach 10.2 million tonnes by 2025(IESR,2022b).The Indonesian Biomass Energy Society(Masyarakat En
274、ergi Biomassa Indonesia)stated that PLNs achievement of implementing biomass co-firing in 36 CFPPs is encouraging.However,questions must be raised about the sources for the long-term supply of biomass.In addition,global prices of biomass feedstock,particularly wood pellets,are getting higher.The mar
275、ket for exports as well as non-energy domestic use increasingly becomes more attractive for domestic suppliers.Currently,the sales price for co-firing feedstock is capped at USD 70(IDR 1 million)per tonne,while the price could reach USD 240(IDR 3.6 million)per tonne if sold to Japan or Korea(MEBI,20
276、23;IESR,2022b).PLN claims that biomass co-firing would reduce up to 11 million tons of CO2 and other greenhouse gases(PLN,2023).However,PLN has not considered unaccounted impacts on emissions that may arise due to technical and economic barriers associated with the biomass feedstock supply chain.The
277、 implementation of biomass co-firing will not substantially reduce GHG emissions if coal remains the major fuel source for Indonesias coal fleet.Furthermore,in addition to financial risks associated with poor fuel economy and operational constraints,there are risks of derating the asset.As noted by
278、Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis(IEEFA),Indonesia must take prudent steps to ensure the feasibility of co-firing adoption,particularly considering the predominance of pulverised coal boilers in PLNs coal fleet,which have a considerably narrow tolerance range in fuel properties(I
279、EEFA,2021b).In order to meet the economic equivalent of coal,options for feedstock sources are limited by distance,namely 360 km for Java,300 km for Sumatra,Kalimantan,and Sulawesi,and 187 km for Maluku and Papua.Even though transportation costs are limited to 11%of the capped price,supply risks may
280、 be greater than anticipated.IESR also noted that the actual cost required to implement biomass co-firing is likely higher since costs associated with boiler fouling and equipment upgrade and/or adjustment needs are excluded(IESR,2022b).While biomass co-firing is already being implemented in many PL
281、N power plants,there are also future aspirations for co-firing ammonia.There are multiple obstacles to sourcing this ammonia above all the cost and greenhouse gas emission benefits that are questionable even at best(Kennedy et al.,2023;BloombergNEF,2022).In addition,recent CREA research has found th
282、at ammonia co-firing at coal-fired power plants could lead to very significant fugitive ammonia emissions both from the ships transporting ammonia and from the power plant stacks(Myllyvirta and Kelly,2023).Ammonia reacts with SO2 and NO2 in the atmosphere to form PM2.5 aerosols.Therefore,ammonia co-
283、firing could,in fact,make the air quality impacts of coal-fired power plants worse than they currently are.In this study,CREA assumes two variations of the biomass co-firing scheme;(1)phased increase of co-firing share,reaching 20%at PLN power plants by 2030 for PERPRES 112/2022 scenario,(2)currentl
284、y achieved share of 5%biomass co-firing for most PLN CFPPs to be maintained and not increased for the 1.5 degrees scenario.Such consideration was made based on the conclusion that biomass co-firing is not an effective strategy that would bring meaningful long-term contributions to Indonesias targets
285、 to realise the climate commitments and achieve an inclusive and just transition(Prasetiyo et al.,2023).Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia44ConclusionIndonesia has started to lay down the groundwork for the retirement of its CFPPs as defined in Presidential Reg
286、ulation No.112 Year 2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity.With the national government committing to finalise the road map within six months since the formation of the JETP Secretariat in February 2023,Indonesia is now entering a critical period wh
287、ere commitments are turned into actions to get on track towards the 1.5 degrees path.The highly anticipated roadmap detailed in the Comprehensive Investment Plan and Policy(CIPP)marks the beginning of clean energy investment mobilisation in Indonesia.In this analysis,CREA seized the opportunity for
288、the first assessment of the consequences of the stipulated coal phase-out timelines,the presence of Air Pollution Control systems in coal power plant operations,and the implementation of biomass co-firing as part of PLNs green transition strategy.CREA has developed a comprehensive health impact asse
289、ssment that outlines the implications of Indonesias decisions on coal power generation plans.Scenario pathways were built based on the best data available,centered around the aim for a Just Energy Transition that prioritises the lives and livelihoods of the affected communities throughout the journe
290、y.Indonesia would be able to minimise health impacts on the affected population by prioritising early retirement of coal power plants and deploying renewables instead of pursuing solutions that prolong coal power plant operations,particularly co-firing with biomass and ammonia.While the current burd
291、en of air pollution from coal power plants on the health of Indonesians and on the economy is overlooked and undercounted,CREA projects the planned expansion up to 2030 to sharply increase this existing burden.The analysis shows a significant increase of 110%in air pollutant emissions over the past
292、decade,solely from coal power generation.CREA estimates that coal power emissions in 2022 were responsible for 10,500 deaths from air pollution and USD 7.4 billion(IDR 109.9 trillion)of economic burden from the associated health impacts.Under the implementation of current policies by 2030 and the fu
293、ll operation of all CFPPs currently planned,Indonesian people will be exposed to 70%higher air pollutant emissions.As Indonesia increases its coal generation capacity from 45 GW currently to 63 GW before peaking in 2028,annual deaths linked to air pollution from coal power will rise to 16,600 per ye
294、ar and the health economic burden will reach USD 11.8 billion(IDR 175.2 trillion)per year.Cancellation of new coal power projects and acceleration of the schedules of the retirement of existing plants would avoid significant economic costs that can cover the investment costs needed to deploy clean a
295、nd renewable energy.A faster coal phase-out by 2040,in line with the 1.5 degrees target of the Paris Agreement,would avoid a cumulative total of 182,000 air pollution-related deaths and relieve health economic burden of USD 130 billion(IDR 1.9 quadrillion)up to 2060.As highlighted by IESR and UMD,th
296、e investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency must reach USD 135 billion(IDR 2 quadrillion)total investment by 2030,additional USD 455 billion(IDR 6.8 quadrillion)by 2040,and additional USD 633 billion(IDR 9.4 quadrillion)by 2050 to facilitate the retirement pathway that is aligned with th
297、e 1.5 degrees commitment(Cui et al.,2022).Indonesias retirement schedule for coal phase-out should include a nationwide evaluation of plant-level health impacts for the amount of electricity the plant generates.The basis for this consideration is to ensure equitable energy transition and mitigate im
298、pacts on the immediately affected communities living in close proximity and all citizens of Indonesia.CREA has generated a list of power plants that should be prioritised,ranked from highest health costs for being located in or near densely populated areas,with the surrounding meteorological conditi
299、ons that raise exposure,and for plants assumed to be operated with poor emission control.Clear examples of such units include the PLNs Muara Karang and Lontar power plants located in Jakarta and Tangerang,as well as several captive coal power plants located in Bekasi,Karawang,Purwakarta,and Bandung.
300、Health benefits of Just Energy Transition and coal phase-out in Indonesia45Full inclusion of the large fleet of captive power plants in Indonesias coal phase-out policies is crucial from both greenhouse gas and public health perspective.Captive power plants are shown to be responsible for approximat
301、ely 20%of the total health impacts of coal power generation in Indonesia.Any room for ambiguity in the regulatory framework may leave captive power plants outside the 2040 coal phase-out policy.CREA approximates an additional annual health burden of 27,000 air pollution-related deaths and health cos
302、ts of USD 20 billion(IDR 300 trillion)to be attributed to captive plants alone.Even as coal power plants begin to retire,investing in improved air pollution controls in those power plants that plan to operate well into and beyond 2030 would deliver substantial benefits.The country can avoid 8,300 de
303、aths and USD 5.8 billion(IDR 86 trillion)in health costs in 2035 with the proper installation of APCs,our analysis shows.Taking into account the investments and operational costs associated with APC facilities,the country would still gain a net economic benefit of USD 70 billion(IDR 1 quadrillion)by
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