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1、Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionJuly 2023Version 1.0The Barriers to Clean Electrification SeriesOur Commissioners come from a range of organisations energy producers,energy-intensive industries,technologyproviders,finance players and environmental NGOs which operate acros
2、s developed and developing countries and play different roles in the energy transition.This diversity of viewpoints informs our work:our analyses are developed with a systems perspective through extensive exchanges with experts and practitioners.The ETC is chaired by Lord Adair Turner who works with
3、 the ETC team,led by Faustine Delasalle(Vice-Chair),Ita Kettleborough(Director),and Mike Hemsley(Deputy Director).The ETCs Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition was developed by the Commissioners with the support of the ETC Secretariat,provided by Systemiq.This report constitu
4、tes a collective view of the Energy Transitions Commission.Members of the ETC endorse the general thrust of the arguments made in this publication but should not be taken as agreeing with every finding or recommendation.The institutions with which the Commissioners are affiliated have not been asked
5、 to formally endorse this report.Accompanying this report,the ETC has developed a series of Material Factsheets for key materials(cobalt,copper,graphite,lithium,neodymium and nickel),available on the ETC website.This report looks to build upon a substantial body of work in this area,including from t
6、he IEA,IRENA,and ETC knowledge partners BNEF and RMI.The ETC team would like to thank the ETC members,member experts and the ETCs broader network of external experts for their active participation in the development of this report.The ETC Commissioners not only agree on the importance of reaching ne
7、t-zero carbon emissions from the energy and industrial systems by mid-century but also share a broad vision of how the transition can be achieved.The fact that this agreement is possible between leaders from companies and organisations with different perspectives on and interests in the energy syste
8、m should give decision-makers across the world confidence that it is possible simultaneously to grow the global economy and to limit global warming to well below 2C.Many of the key actions to achieve these goals are clear and can be pursued without delay.Learn more at:www.energy-transitions.org and
9、Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionThe Energy Transitions Commission(ETC)is a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century,in line with the Paris climate objective of limiting global warming to well below 2C and ide
10、ally to 1.5C.Barriers to Clean Electrification SeriesThe ETCs Barriers to Clean Electrification series focuses on identifying the key challenges facing the transition to clean power systems globally and recommending a set of key actions to ensure the clean electricity scale-up is not derailed in the
11、 2020s.This series of reports will develop a view on how to“risk manage”the transition by anticipating the barriers that are likely to arise and outlining how to overcome them,providing counters to misleading claims,providing explainer content and key facts,and sharing recommendations that help mana
12、ge risks.Previous publications in this series include ETC(2023),Streamlining planning and permitting to accelerate wind and solar deployment and ETC(2023),Better,Faster,Cleaner:Securing clean energy technology supply chains.The Energy Transitions Commission is hosted by SYSTEMIQ Ltd.Copyright 2023 S
13、YSTEMIQ Ltd.All rights reserved.Front cover Image:Aerial view of an open-pit copper mine in Peru (Jose Luis Stephens/S).Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition2Our CommissionersMr Shaun Kingsbury,Chief Investment Officer Just Climate Mr.Bradley Andrews,President,UK,Norway,Centra
14、l Asia&Eastern Europe Worley Mr.Jon Creyts,Chief Executive Officer Rocky Mountain Institute Mr.Spencer Dale,Chief Economist bp Mr.Bradley Davey,Executive Vice President,Head of Corporate Business Optimisation ArcelorMittal Mr.Jeff Davies,Chief Financial Officer L&G Mr.Pierre-Andr de Chalendar,Chairm
15、an and Chief Executive Officer Saint Gobain Mr.Agustin Delgado,Chief Innovation and Sustainability Officer Iberdrola Dr.Vibha Dhawan,Director General The Energy and Resources Institute Mr.Craig Hanson,Managing Director and Executive Vice President for Programs World Resources Institute Dr.Thomas Hoh
16、ne-Sparborth,Head of Sustainability Research at Lombard Odier Investment Managers Lombard Odier Mr.John Holland-Kaye,Chief Executive Officer Heathrow Airport Dr.Jennifer Holmgren,Chief Executive Officer LanzaTech Mr.Fred Hu,Founder,Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Primavera Capital Dr.Rasha Hasa
17、neen,Chief Product and Sustainability Officer Aspen Technology Ms.Mallika Ishwaran,Chief Economist Royal Dutch Shell Mr.Mazuin Ismail,Senior Vice President Petronas Dr.Timothy Jarratt,Director of Strategic Projects National Grid Mr.Greg Jackson,Founder and Chief Executive Officer Octopus Energy Mr.A
18、lan Knight,Group Director of Sustainability DRAX Ms.Zoe Knight,Group Head,Centre of Sustainable Finance,Head of Climate Change MENAT HSBC Ms.Kirsten Konst,Member of the Managing Board Rabobank Mr.Martin Lindqvist,Chief Executive Officer and President SSAB Mr.Johan Lundn,Senior Vice President,Project
19、 and Product Strategy Office Volvo Mr.Rajiv Mangal,Vice President,Safety,Health and Sustainability Tata Steel Ms.Laura Mason,Chief Executive Officer L&G Capital Dr.Mara Mendiluce,Chief Executive Officer We Mean Business Mr.Jon Moore,Chief Executive Officer BloombergNEF Mr.Julian Mylchreest,Executive
20、 Vice Chairman,Global Corporate&Investment Banking Bank of America Mr.David Nelson,Head of Climate Transition Willis Towers Watson Ms.Damilola Ogunbiyi,Chief Executive Officer Sustainable Energy For All Mr.Paddy Padmanathan,Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer ACWA Power Mr.KD Park,President Ko
21、rea Zinc Ms.Nandita Parshad,Managing Director,Sustainable Infrastructure Group EBRD Mr.Alistair Phillips-Davies,Chief Executive SSE Mr.Andreas Regnell,Senior Vice President,Head of Strategic Development Vattenfall Mr.Menno Sanderse,Head of Strategy and Investor Relations Rio Tinto Mr.Siddharth Sharm
22、a,Chief Executive Officer,Tata Trusts Tata Sons Private Limited Mr.Ian Simm,Founder and Chief Executive Officer Impax Asset Management Mr.Sumant Sinha,Chairman,Founder and Chief Executive Officer ReNew Power Lord Nicholas Stern,IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government Grantham Institute LSE Dr
23、.Gnther Thallinger,Member of the Board of Management,Investment Management,Sustainability Allianz Mr.Simon Thompson,Senior Advisor Rothschild&Co Mr.Thomas Thune Andersen,Chairman of the Board rsted Mr.Nigel Topping,Global Ambassador UN High Level Climate Action ChampionsDr.Robert Trezona,Founding Pa
24、rtner,Kiko Ventures IP Group Mr.Jean-Pascal Tricoire,Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Schneider Electric Ms.Laurence Tubiana,Chief Executive Officer European Climate Foundation Lord Adair Turner,Chair Energy Transitions Commission Senator Timothy E.Wirth,Vice Chair United Nations FoundationMater
25、ial and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition3Major ETC reports and working papersSectoral focuses provided detailed decarbonisation analyses on six of the harder-to-abate sectors after the publication of the Mission Possible report(2019).As a core partner of the MPP,the ETC also completes
26、 analysis to support a range of sectorial decarbonisation initiatives:MPP Sector Transition Strategies(20222023)a series of reports thatguide the decarbonisation of seven of the hardest-to-abate sectors.Of these,four are from the materials industries:aluminium,chemicals,concrete,and steel,and three
27、are from the mobility and transport sectors aviation,shipping,and trucking.Global Reports Sectoral and cross-sectoral focusesGeographical focuses Keeping 1.5C Alive Series(20212022)COP special reports outlining actions and agreements required in the 2020s to keep 1.5C within reach.Barriers to Clean
28、Electrification Series(20222024)recommends actions to overcome key obstacles to clean electrification scale-up,including planning and permitting,supply chains and power grids.Unlocking the First Wave of Breakthrough Steel Investments(2023)This ETC series of reports looks at how to scale-up near-zero
29、 emissions primary(ore-based)steelmaking this decade within specific regional contexts:the UK,Southern Europe,France and USA.Canadas Electrification Advantage in the Race to Net-Zero(2022)identifies 5 catalysts that can serve as a starting point for a national electrification strategy led by Canadas
30、 premieres at the province level.China 2050:A Fully Developed Rich Zero-carbon Economy(2019)Analyses Chinas energy sources,technol-ogies and policy interventions required to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.A series of reports on the Indian power system,outlining decarbonisation roadmaps for
31、Indias electricity supply and heavy industry.Setting up industrial regions for net zero(20212023)explore the state of play in Australia,and identifies opportunities for transitioning to net-zero emissions in five hard-to-abate supply chains.Mission Possible(2018)outlines pathways to reach net-zero e
32、missions from the harder-to-abate sectors in heavy industry(cement,steel,plastics)and heavy-duty transport(trucking,shipping,aviation).Making Mission Possible(2020)shows that a net-zero global economy is technically and economically possible by mid-century and will require a profound transformation
33、of the global energy system.Making Mission Possible Series(20212022)outlines how to scale-up clean energy provision to achieve a net-zero emissions economy by mid-century.Financing the Transition(2023)quantifies the finance needed to achieve a net-zero global economy and identifies policies needed t
34、o unleash investment on the scale required.Prepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/MARCH 2023UNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in the United StatesUNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in the United KingdomPrepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/March 2023UN
35、LOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in FrancePrepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/MARCH 2023UNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in Southern EuropePrepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/March 2023UNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS In
36、ternational OpportunitiesTHE UNITED KINGDOM,SPAIN,FRANCE,AND THE UNITED STATES Prepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/April 2023Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition4GlossaryBEV or EV:(Battery)electric vehicle.Bioenergy:Renewable energy derived from biological sources,in the fo
37、rm of solid biomass,biogas or biofuels.Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage(BECCS):A technology that combines bioenergy with carbon capture and storage to produce energy and net negative greenhouse gas emissions,i.e.removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.Carbon capture and storage(CCS):T
38、he term“carbon capture”is used to refer to process of capturing CO2 on the back of energy and industrial processes.The term“carbon capture and storage”refers to the combination of carbon capture with underground geological storage of carbon.Carbon emissions/CO2 emissions:These terms are used interch
39、angeably to describe anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.Direct Air Carbon Capture(DACC):The term used for various technologies which use chemical processes to separate carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.This term does not carry any implications regarding subsequent treatme
40、nt of the captured carbon dioxide,i.e.it could be utilised or stored.Electrolysis:A technique that uses electric current to drive an otherwise non-spontaneous chemical reaction.One form of electrolysis is the process that decomposes water into hydrogen and oxygen,taking place in an electrolyser and
41、producting ”green”hydrogen.This process can be zero-carbon if the electricity used is zero-carbon.Environmental impacts:Harmful effects of human activities on ecosystems and natural resources.These include climate change impacts(through greenhouse gas emissions),ecotoxicity impacts,land-use related
42、biodiversity loss,and water stress.1 Griscom et al.(2017),Natural climate solutions.FCEV:Fuel-cell electric vehicle.Greenhouse gases(GHGs):Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere.Global GHG emission contributions by gas are roughly 76%CO2,16%methane,6%nitrous oxide,and 2%fluorinated gases.Materials:A
43、 sub-set of resources that include biomass,fossil fuels,metals and non-metallic minerals.In this report we focus on a set of metals that are highly relevant to the energy transition and are interchangeably referred to as”energy transition materials”,“energy transition metals”,or”critical raw materia
44、ls”.(See also Primary and Secondary Materials.)Materials efficiency:Using less materials to provide the same level of performance for a given technology,typically in units of mass(kg)per installed capacity(MW or MWh).Mineral Reserves:A dynamic working inventory of economically-extractable minerals/c
45、ommodities that are currently recoverable.Mineral Resources:The total amount of a mineral/commodity that is geologically available in sufficient concentrations that extraction is potentially feasible.Typically used to refer to materials available on land(i.e.excluding deep-sea resources).Natural Cli
46、mate Solutions(NCS):“Conservation,restoration and/or improved land management actions to increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests,wetlands,grasslands,agricultural lands and oceans”.1 This can be coupled with technology to secure long-term or permanent stora
47、ge of greenhouse gases.Natural Resources:These include land,water and materials,and are parts of the natural world that can be used in economic activities to produce goods and services.Ore:Natural rock or sediment deposits that contains one or more valuable minerals.Ore grade:The percentage of an el
48、ement of interest within a potentially mineable ore.The ore grade of different metals vary considerably,e.g.,around 50%for iron ore or around 0.6%for copper ore.Primary Materials:Materials that have been extracted from the natural environment,typically through mining.Rare Earth Elements(REEs):A set
49、of seventeen metallic elements,made up of the fifteen lanthanides,as well as scandium and yttrium.This report focuses on the neodymium,a rare earth element typically used in high-strength magnets in both wind turbines and electric vehicles.Secondary Materials:Materials that have been recycled from a
50、 previous use-case and are supplied back into the economy as“new”raw materials.Tailings:This is the ground rock residual that remains following any milling or beneficiation processes which removes the valuable metallic constituents from the mined ore.Waste Rock:This is rock that has been mined and t
51、ransported out of a mine pit,but does not contain metal concentrations of economic interest.Sometimes referred to as“overburden”.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition5Our Commissioners 3Major ETC reports and working papers 4Glossary 5Introduction 7 Chapter 1Sufficient natural
52、resources for an inherently more sustainable energy system 121.1 Land and water requirements for a clean energy system 151.2 Raw material requirements to build a clean energy system 191.3 The new system vs.the old-a dramatically reduced impact on the global environment 251.4 Summary 28Chapter 2Suppl
53、y-demand balance to 2030 and the potential for efficiency and recycling 302.1 Materials demand projections for the energy transition four scenarios 312.2 Balance of demand versus supply to 2030 in the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario 342.3 The potential for efficiency and recycling 382.4 Reserve an
54、d supply gaps with efficiency and recycling improvements 532.5 Actions to improve efficiency and increase recycling 61Chapter 3Ensuring adequate and secure supply 683.1 The primary role of imperfect markets 693.2 Challenges to a smooth scale-up in primary supply 713.3 Actions to address supply side
55、challenges 783.4 Geographic concentration and security of supply concerns 823.5 Actions to build resilient and secure supply chains 83Chapter 4Minimising and managing environmental impacts of materials supply 884.1 Greenhouse gas emissions from materials production 904.2 Material quantities,land use
56、,and biodiversity 934.3 Local toxicity and pollution impacts 964.4 The impact of water consumption in mining 984.5 Impacts on local communities and society 994.6 Key areas of focus to ensure sustainable and responsible materials for the energy transition 1004.7 Actions required to make material supp
57、ly more sustainable and responsible 101Chapter 5Implications for clean energy technologies and key actions for the 2020s 1155.1 Summary of key risks and potential short-term implications 1165.2 Key actions for the 2020s 121AppendixOverview of key model assumptions 123Acknowledgements 128ContentsMate
58、rial and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition6IntroductionThe Paris Climate Accord committed the world to keeping global warming to well below 2C from pre-industrial levels,aiming ideally for a 1.5C limit.To have a 90%chance of staying below 2C and a 50%chance of limiting warming to 1.5C,
59、the world must reduce CO and other greenhouse gases to around zero by mid-century,with a reduction of around 40%achieved by 2030.The ETC supports these objectives and believes that all high-income countries should reach net-zero by 2050 at the latest,and all middle-and lower-income countries by 2060
60、.Achieving this will require the rapid and large-scale rollout of multiple clean energy technologies,of which the most important support the massive expansion and complete decarbonisation of electricity supply,a deep electrification of most energy final uses,and a hugely expanded role for low-carbon
61、 hydrogen,primarily produced via electrolysis(“green hydrogen”).Total electricity supply will need to rise from todays roughly 30,000 TWh to over 100,000 TWh by mid-century;green hydrogen production could reach 500800 Mt per annum;transmission and distribution grids will need to expand from around 7
62、0 million kilometres to up to 200 million kilometres;and 1.5 billion passenger electric vehicles(EVs)would require around 100 TWh of aggregate battery capacity.Building this new clean energy system will require a wide range of critical raw materials,from copper for wiring,steel for wind turbine towe
63、rs,rare earth elements for electric motors,lithium,nickel and graphite for batteries,and silicon for solar photovoltaic(PV)panels.Supplying these materials will require large scale investments and rapid expansion of mining and refining capacity.At the same time,coal production would have to decrease
64、 more than 90%from current levels as the energy transition unfolds.2This ETC report builds upon existing work and assesses:3 Whether there are sufficient raw material resources to support the energy transition.Whether supply can grow fast enough to meet demand.The global and local environmental impa
65、cts of increased mining and metals refining.The actions which can be taken to ensure adequate and secure supply and to reduce adverse environmental impacts.The key conclusions are that:The new clean energy system has manageable requirements for land,water and materials and will lead to drastically l
66、ower emissions,helping to reach net-zero emissions and avoid future climate change and its impacts.Over the long term,there are sufficient resources of all the raw materials(and of land area and water)to support the energy transition,and in those cases where currently assessed“reserves”4 fall short
67、of potential cumulative demand in particular copper and nickel reserve expansion can and will be achieved.There is major potential to reduce future cumulative demand for energy transition materials via technical innovation and recycling,which should be strongly supported and required by public polic
68、y.Mining will need to expand.Scaling supply rapidly enough to meet demand growth between now and 2030 will be challenging for some metals,in particular lithium,copper,nickel,cobalt,graphite and neodymium;but actions can be taken by governments and companies which would prevent any serious constraint
69、 on the pace of the energy transition.Mining can expand in a sustainable and responsible way.The adverse global and local environmental impacts of extracting the materials and minerals required for a clean energy system are far less than those imposed by the extraction and use of fossil fuels.Shifti
70、ng from use of consumable fossil fuels which must be continuously extracted to the use of durable metals which can be reused and recycled,creates a fundamentally more sustainable energy system.Mineral extraction and refining does currently have significant impacts on local environments and communiti
71、es.However,these can be minimised through best practise responsible mining,which should be required by strong regulation.2 Coal production would be approximately 650 Mt p.a.in 2050(accounting for both thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for steel)compared to existing levels of o
72、ver 8,000 Mt p.a.The ETC will be covering this topic in detail in an upcoming report on fossil fuels.Systemiq analysis for the ETC,based on ETC(2020),Making mission possible;ETC(2022),Mind the gap;IEA(2021),Net zero by 2050:A roadmap for the global energy sector;BP(2023),Energy Outlook Net zero scen
73、ario;Shell(2021),Energy transformation scenarios Sky scenario;BNEF(2022),New energy outlook Net Zero Scenario.3 See e.g.,ETC(2023),Better,faster,cleaner:Securing clean energy technology supply chains;IEA(2022),The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions;World Bank(2020),Minerals for Cl
74、imate Action;WWF/SINTEF(2022),Circular Economy and Critical Minerals for the Green Transition;Watari et al.(2019),Total material requirements for the global energy transition to 2050:A focus on transport and electricity.4 The economically and technically exploitable subset of typically larger resour
75、ces see Box A.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition7The report covers in turn:The availability and sufficiency of natural resources for an inherently more sustainable energy system.Projections of demand and supply to 2030 and the potential to reduce demand through technical in
76、novation and recycling.Challenges facing rapid supply ramp up and action to ensure adequate and secure supply.Global and local environmental impacts and actions to reduce them.Summary actions for industry and policy makers in the next decade.This report is accompanied by a set of Material Factsheets
77、,covering key information for six priority energy transition materials:cobalt,copper,graphite,lithium,neodymium and nickel.A short Executive Summary of this report is also available.8Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionMATERIAL AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ENERGY TRANSIT
78、ION HCO2ENERGYTECHNOLOGIESKEY MATERIAL NEEDSThe clean energy system in 2050WINDSOLARPOWER GRIDGREEN HYDROGENEVs ANDBATTERIESCARBON CAPTURE20222050Deploying clean energy technologies will require a range of materialsALUMINIUM AND STEELCOPPERNICKELPOLYSILICONPLATINUM&PALLADIUMNEODYMIUMSILVERLITHIUMCOB
79、ALTGRAPHITENICKELSORBENT CHEMICALSE.G.MONOETHANOLAMINEREQUIRED SCALE-UP IN MATERIALS DEMAND BY 2050Relative increase in demand for key materials from clean energy technologies,from 2022x5x10 x15x2020202025203020352040204520502022MATERIALSMillion metric tonnes COBALT1025COPPER13005600NICKEL185300LITH
80、IUM2085Energy Transitions Commission-July 2023LITHIUMNICKELGRAPHITENEODYMIUMCOPPERCOBALTSTEELSILICONSILVERALUMINIUMAgriculture2,700 bn m3Clean Energy58 bn m3Fossil Fuels37 bn m34,000 bn m3 of global annual water consumptionAgriculture51 Million km2Clean Energy0.75 Million km2Fossil Fuels0.3 Million
81、km2106 m Km2 of global habitable landA clean energy system will have manageable resource requirements for land and water-and lead to drastically lower emissions.SUFFICIENT GLOBAL RESOURCESLAND USE-TOTALWATER USE-ANNUALGLOBAL EMISSIONS-2022-2050CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO21000 GtC
82、O2e emissions from fossil fuelscontinuing indefinitely+Emissions will fall to zero as mining and manufacturing decarbonise.Emissions from producing all of the materials needed for a clean energy system.CO240 GtCO2eCO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2CO2ENERGY TRANSITION MAIN DRIVER OF DEMANDOTHER SECTO
83、RS MAIN DRIVERS OF DEMANDA MIX OF BOTH14-15 TW1 TWx1526-34 TW1.2 TWx25200 Million Km70 Million Kmx37-10 GtCO2 p.a.0.05 GtCO2 p.a.x100500-800 MT1 MTx5001500 M25 M EV FLEETx60Scale-up neededNEODYMIUMGlobalResources Energy transition requirements by 2050Other requirements by 205070%2%1%50%1%1%_95%iron
84、content,so mass of steel required is assumed to be equivalent to mass of iron required.For lithium mined from hard rock.3 Assuming lithium from hard rock makes up half of total lithium supply.SOURCE:Nassar et al.(2022),Rock-to-metal ratio:A foundational metric for understanding mine wastes.IEA(2023)
85、,CO emissions in 2022;IEA(2022),Coal 2022;IEA(2022),Oil market report December;IEA(2022),Gas market report,Q4;ICMM(2022),Tailings reduction roadmap.Annual waste rock moved to produce materials for the energy transition15 billion tonnes of fossil fuels(30%of which is internationally traded)Up to 13 b
86、illion tonnes of waste rock produced from all energy transition materials(stored on-site)0.3 billion tonnes of materials in clean energy technologiesAluminium2050:The energy materials system2022:The fossil fuel systemSteelLithiumCopper100 Mt of waste rock1000 Mt of waste rock600 Mt of waste rock310,
87、000 Mt of waste rock7 tonnes of rock moved per aluminium9 tonnes of rock moved per ton of iron/steel1,600 tonnes of rock moved per ton of lithium500 tonnes of rock moved per ton of copperMax 16 Mt p.a.of primary aluminium demand from energy transitionMax 110 Mt p.a.of primary steel demand from energ
88、y transitionMax 0.8 Mt p.a.of primary lithium demand from energy transitionMax 20 Mt p.a.of primary copper demand from energy transitionvs.5 billion tonnes of oil3 billion tonnes of gas8 billion tonnes of coalThis is around the same amount of waste rock currently produced by all copper mining.2 bill
89、ion tonnes of waste rock and tailings from coal miningEnergy transition demand for materials could lead to up to 13bn tonnes of waste rock each year less than the 15bn tonnes of fossil fuels extracted and burned each yearEXHIBIT 1.10NOTE:Waste rock accounts for both ore grade and for additional wast
90、e rock moved(e.g.overburden).Material requirements are based on the ETCs Baseline Decarbonisation scenario,where an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies leads to global decarbonisation by mid-century,but materials intensity and recycling trends follow recent patterns.The 13 billion ton
91、nes total includes all materials assessed in this report.Steel tends to have 95%iron content,so mass of steel required is assumed to be equivalent to mass of iron required.For lithium mined from hard rock.3 Assuming lithium from hard rock makes up half of total lithium supply.SOURCE:Nassar et al.(20
92、22),Rock-to-metal ratio:A foundational metric for understanding mine wastes.IEA(2023),CO emissions in 2022;IEA(2022),Coal 2022;IEA(2022),Oil market report December;IEA(2022),Gas market report,Q4;ICMM(2022),Tailings reduction roadmap.Annual waste rock moved to produce materials for the energy transit
93、ion15 billion tonnes of fossil fuels(30%of which is internationally traded)Up to 13 billion tonnes of waste rock produced from all energy transition materials(stored on-site)0.3 billion tonnes of materials in clean energy technologiesAluminium2050:The energy materials system2022:The fossil fuel syst
94、emSteelLithiumCopperEXHIBIT 1.10Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition27During the transition,these local environmental impacts could be on the same order of magnitude as maintaining the current fossil fuel based system,although they will differ in severity and nature in specif
95、ic locations(see Chapter 4 for a detailed discussion).This is because while a clean energy system requires at most around 0.3 billion tonnes of materials each year,extracting them requires moving up to 13 billion tonnes of waste rock Exhibit 1.10 an amount roughly similar to the current global coppe
96、r system.38 However,two points should be kept in mind:The current fossil fuel system relies on the extraction of 15 billion tonnes of coal,oil and gas39 together with 2 billion tonnes of waste rock and tailings from coal mining.40 Of these,around 4 billion tonnes are internationally traded over thou
97、sands of kilometres41 whereas waste rock and tailings from mining are typically moved at most a few kilometres within a mine site.Further,there will be a clear environmental benefit of a reduction in air pollution from avoided combustion of fossil fuels:Mining and combustion of fossil fuels leads to
98、 the emission of nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter that results in illness and millions of premature deaths each year,predominantly driven by coal mining and coal-fired power generation.42 Combustion of bioenergy also leads to emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter,though over
99、all volumes of bioenergy combustion will be significantly smaller than fossil fuel combustion today.Life cycle analyses show that wind,solar and nuclear electricity generation has an impact on human deaths that is 1000 x lower than coal and 100 x lower than gas.43 In the case of electric vehicles,th
100、e significant weight of batteries means that non-exhaust emissions(mainly from brake,tyre and road wear)from the driving of vehicles will still remain even as the road transport fleet is electrified.44 However,the scale of this issue is much smaller than the impacts on human health from combustion o
101、f fossil fuels.In addition,the key point is that todays energy system,based on the continuous extraction and consumption of fossil fuels would lead to these environmental impacts occurring every year in perpetuity.In comparison,the material extraction required to build a clean energy system will be,
102、to a large extent,one-off.The materials extracted will be deployed in durable technologies which,over the long-term will be significantly recycled,as explained in Chapter 2.This means that mining needs for the energy transition will greatly reduce in coming years.1.4 Summary Analysis of global cumul
103、ative resource requirements shows that there are no fundamental long-term barriers to building a zero-carbon energy system,which can support widespread global prosperity in a sustainable way.However,there may need to be short-term trade-offs and open discussions around land use or water consumption
104、in particularly resource-constrained countries or regions.Over the long-term,any trade-offs across land use,water consumption or material requirements for a clean energy system are more than manageable when compared to the existing fossil fuel or agricultural systems Exhibit 1.11 as well as reducing
105、 emissions to avoid climate change and its associated impacts on resources and the environment.The key issues are therefore not the long-term feasibility or desirability of a clean energy system,but:The challenge of ramping up materials supply fast enough to decarbonise the global economy at the pac
106、e required.This is considered in Chapters 2 and 3.The challenge of ensuring mining for key materials occurs in a sustainable and responsible way which manages and minimises local environment impacts.This is considered in Chapter 4.38 Nassar et al.(2022),Rock-to-metal ratio:A foundational metric for
107、understanding mine wastes.39 IEA(2022),Coal 2022;IEA(2022),Oil market report December;IEA(2022),Gas market report,Q4.40 ICMM(2022),Tailings reduction roadmap.41 BP(2022),Statistical review of world energy.42 There is a range of estimates of global deaths attributable to fossil fuel particulate emiss
108、ions,see e.g.,McDuffie et al.(2021),Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales,which estimates approximately 1.1 million premature deaths annually,or Vohra et al.(2021),Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generate
109、d by fossil fuel combustion:Results from GEOS-Chem,which estimates around 8.7 million premature deaths annually.43 Our World in Data(2022),What are the safest and cleanest sources of energy?44 OECD(2020),Non-exhaust particulate emissions from road transport;Harrison et al.(2021),Non-exhaust vehicle
110、emissions of particulate matter and VOC from road traffic:A review.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition28A clean energy system will have manageable land,water and material needs,and drastically lower emissionsEXHIBIT 1.11Energy and Agriculture,Resource Requirements and GHG Em
111、issionsSOURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC;Our World in Data(2019),Land Use;IEA,Water-Energy Nexus(2016);Our World in Data(2017),Water use and stress;Nassar et al.(2022),Rock-to-metal ratio:A foundational metric for understanding mine wastes.IEA(2023),CO2 emissions in 2022;IEA(2022),Coal 2022;IEA(2
112、022),Oil market report December;IEA(2022),Gas market report,Q4;UN FAOSTAT(2023),Crops and livestock products;IEA(2023),Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions from oil and gas operations in the Net Zero Scenario,2021 and 2030;IEA(2023),CO2 Emissions in 2022;UNEP(2022),Emissions gap report 2022.Land Use(Total)Wa
113、ter Consumption(Annual)Materials(Annual)GHG Emissions(Annual)Million kmBillion mBillion tonnesGtCOeClean EnergyFossil FuelsAgricultureClean EnergyFossil FuelsAgricultureClean EnergyFossil FuelsClean EnergyFossil FuelsAgricultureClean EnergyFossil FuelsAgriculture0.750.35158372,7000.3150.541121%of gl
114、obal land2%of global water consumptionOne-off scale-up that can be recycledNeeded every year indefinitely Can decarbonise over coming decadesEmitted every yearindefinitely Key Assumptions:Clean EnergyFossil FuelsAgri-cultureLand use for electricity generation in 2050(not bioenergy),including for gre
115、en hydrogen and DAC,assuming ground-mounted utility-scale solar and only direct land use for wind.Estimated current land use for coal mining and oil and gas extraction.Current land use for agriculture including crops and livestock for meat and dairy.Water consumption in 2050 for cleaning solar panel
116、s,nuclear power,hydrogen electrolysis,and CCS.Current water consumption for coal mining,oil and gas extraction,and fossil power generation.Current water consumption for all agriculture.Maximum additional material needs to build clean energy technologies in 2050,including e.g.steel for wind turbines,
117、lithium in batteries,copper in cabling.Current annual extraction of coal,oil and gas used in energy system.Not applicable here but global agricultural crop production in 2021 was 9.5 billion tonnes.Maximum potential emissions associated with production of materials for clean energy technologies,assu
118、ming current emissions intensities.Current emissions associated with fossil fuels and energy system.Current emissions associated with agriculture and land-use change.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition29Supply-demand balance to 2030 and the potential for efficiency and recyc
119、lingChapter 2Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition30 Current supply pipelines do not appear sufficient to meet rapidly growing demand from the energy transition,with supply gaps and high prices possible for six key energy transition materials(cobalt,copper,graphite,lithium,neo
120、dymium and nickel).There is major potential to reduce future demand for energy transition materials via technology and materials efficiency and recycling.These can help reduce cumulative primary materials requirements from the energy transition,and potentially close supply gaps through to 2030.Actio
121、n to accelerate both materials efficiency and recycling should be strongly supported and required by public policy especially for battery materials and copper.Chapter 1 considered the big picture of whether there are enough resources available to meet the raw material demands for the energy transiti
122、on over the long-term.In this chapter,we set out the details of our demand scenarios,and assess how potential demand growth to 2030 compares with estimates of planned supply.This chapter is also accompanied by Material Factsheets,covering key information for six key energy transition materials(cobal
123、t,copper,graphite,lithium,neodymium and nickel).We cover in turn:The structure of our demand model four scenarios for decarbonisation and materials demand.Baseline demand growth for metals for the energy transition,relative to planned supply specific challenges in the 2020s.The potential to reduce d
124、emand and required supply through technical innovation and recycling.Remaining reserve and supply gaps.Policy action to drive technical innovation and recycling.2.1 Materials demand projections for the energy transition four scenarios Chapter 1 began by describing the key technological and investmen
125、t drivers of the energy transition,with clean electrification at the core.The starting point for our demand model is a set of assumptions which translate this into demand for raw materials.This requires making assumptions about:Technical efficiency factors,such as GW of power capacity per GWh of gen
126、eration.Product design factors,such as kWh per EV battery.Material intensity factors,such as kg of material per kW or per kWh.The key driving assumptions for our scenarios are shown in Exhibit 2.1.These are the fundamental drivers of materials demand,in line with and derived from the ETCs broader bo
127、dy of work,and are designed to ramp up aggressively achieving rapid,deep decarbonisation to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century and apply across all four scenarios in this report.45 45 Deployment of clean energy technologies is designed to be consistent with previous ETC work on the energy trans
128、ition.See ETC(2020),Making Mission Possible;ETC(2021),Making Clean Electrification Possible;ETC(2021),Making the Hydrogen Economy Possible;ETC(2022),CCUS in the energy transition:vital but limited.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition31These driving assumptions are combined wi
129、th a range of inputs across technology and materials efficiency,and waste management and recycling at end of life,to calculate material flows Exhibit 2.2.Illustrative calculation of material requirementsEXHIBIT 2.2New installed capacitySplit across key sub-technologiesMaterials intensity of each sub
130、-technologyScrappage and waste rates in productionTotal Materials DemandTotal annual material requirements in clean energy technologiesRecycled volumes(once technologies reach end-of-life)Technologies reaching end-of-lifeCollection rates for technologiesEnd-of-life recycling rates for materialsTechn
131、ologyYear20222030204020502022203020402050202220302040205020222030204020501,600 TWh6,500 TWh20,000 TWh40,700 TWh2,100 TWh7,900 TWh25,000 TWh50,000 TWh2,800 TWh3,500 TWh4,900 TWh4,600 TWh28,000 TWh35,000 TWh56,000 TWh78,000 TWh20222030204020502022203020402050202220302040205020222030204020500.1 TWh2 TW
132、h5 TWh11 TWh1 Mt20 Mt290 Mt700 Mt1 TWh75 TWh1000 TWh2700 TWh0.05 GtCO21 GtCO25 GtCO210 GtCO2YearProjectionProjectionTechnologyETC assumptions for clean energy technology deployment to 2050EXHIBIT 2.1TechnologyYearYearProjectionProjection lightProjection mid/heavyTechnologySolar PowerGenerationStatio
133、nary StorageDACC/CCSHydrogen Fuel CellsGreen Hydrogen Production by ElectrolysisWind PowerGeneration2022203020402050202220302040205010 million88 million97 million98 million60 million450 million1.3 billion1.5 billion0.3 million6 million16 million17.5 million1 million28 million150 million270 million20
134、2220302040205020222030204020500.03 million1 million4.5 million9 million0.05 million4.5 million35 million100 millionPassenger Electric Vehicle SalesCommercial Electric Vehicle Sales Passenger Electric Vehicle FleetNuclear Power GenerationTransmission and Distribution Grid(Total Direct Electrification
135、)(Energy demand from aviation and shipping)(Light vs.Mid/Heavy)CommercialElectric VehicleFleet(Light vs.Mid/Heavy)EnergyTransportMaterial and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition32We then vary the assumptions to generate four scenarios:A Baseline Decarbonisation scenario which ramps up th
136、e deployment of the different technologies to achieve a mid-century net-zero economy in line with the ETCs vision,alongside relatively conservative“business-as-usual”assumptions on technology efficiency and innovation,materials intensity,and recycling.Given the very rapid deployment of clean energy
137、technologies,outputs can be seen as an“upper bound”for material requirements for the energy transition.A High Efficiency and Innovation scenario with more optimistic assumptions on technical efficiency,material intensity and a pivot to less material-intensive technologies(e.g.,higher solar and wind
138、capacity factors,smaller battery requirements for EVs,reduced or changed material inputs per kW of solar or wind capacity,or per kWh of battery).A High Recycling scenario with more intense process scrap and end-of-life recycling,which in some specific minerals achieves recycling rates of over 90%by
139、2050 and increases so-called“secondary supply”.A Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenario which combines progress on both technical efficiency and innovation and recycling.For each of the scenarios,we produce estimates of potential annual demand from the energy transition in 2030,2040 and 2050,base
140、d on both total materials demand and secondary supply of recycled materials Exhibit 2.3.4646 We also make use of external forecasts for non-energy transition demand through to 2050,and for primary and secondary supply of materials through to 2030.These are detailed for each material in Exhibits 2.4
141、and 2.15.Four ETC scenarios explore the impact that efficiency and recycling can have on total material requirements and the secondary supply of materials for the energy transitionEXHIBIT 2.3BaselineDecarbonisationAligned to Net-zero by 2050Max reduction in total material demandMax increase in secon
142、dary supplyHigh Efficiencyand InnovationMaximum Efficiencyand RecyclingHigh RecyclingMaximum demand pathway for a material,based on uptake of clean energy technologies.Lower,slower ramp-up in demand due to reduced material requirements.Smaller secondary supply due to lower through-flow of materials.
143、Improved waste management,recycling,reuse-secondary supply increases.Lower material requirements and increased recycling.Demand for primary supply of materials is much lower.Energy transition total demandPrimary demandEnergy transition secondary supply202020302040205020202030204020502020203020402050
144、2020203020402050Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition33In Chapter 1,we compared cumulative demand under the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario with current resources and reserves to illustrate that there is no fundamental long-term problem of resource adequacy,even under assump
145、tions that yield the highest material requirements.In this Chapter,we compare demand scenarios out to 2030 with estimates of planned supply over that period.2.2 Balance of demand versus supply to 2030 in the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario Exhibit 2.4 shows demand projections in the Baseline Decar
146、bonisation scenario together with initial projections of potential supply,including both primary mined supply and secondary recycled supply.47Some key features of the demand picture are:Volumes of steel and aluminium grow significantly,but primarily because of growth in non-energy related demands(e.
147、g.,with greater urbanisation and industrialisation driving demand for steel in lower-income countries).Copper,nickel and cobalt demand growth reflects both energy transition and non-energy related factors.Energy transition driven demand for lithium,graphite and cobalt increases considerably to 2030,
148、but flattens out thereafter as EV penetration reaches high levels.For many of the materials in the second and third categories,where the energy transition drives strong demand,demand growth to 2030 is well beyond historical precedent in recent years.4847 Secondary supply estimates are also external,
149、and ETC calculations of secondary supply from clean energy technologies at end-of-life is added on to total supply estimates.48 One plausible comparator is the growth in steel demand during the commodity supercycle of the early 2000s,where production of iron ore rose from 970 Mt in 2000 up to 1,870
150、Mt in 2010,as prices nearly quadrupled over the same period.USGS(2020),Iron ore statistics;McKinsey&Co.(2022),The raw-materials challenge.34Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionSupply-Secondary(from Energy Transition)Baseline Decarbonisation:Annual material demand and supplyEX
151、HIBIT 2.4Energy Transition DemandNon-Energy Transition DemandEstimated supply-PrimarySupply-Secondary Aluminium1(Million metric tonnes)Cobalt2(Thousand metric tonnes)110 50165Copper3(Million metric tonnes)Graphite Anodes4(Million metric tonnes)Lithium5(Thousand metric tonnes)Ne
152、odymium6(Thousand metric tonnes)Steel11(Billion metric tonnes)Uranium12(Thousand metric tonnes)20222050202520302040Nickel7(Million metric tonnes)Platinum&Palladium8(Thousand metric tonnes)Polysilicon9(Million metric tonnes)Silver10(Thousand metric tonnes)02470485202220502025203
153、020404702022205020252030204024252932403645575753202220502025203020400.51.12.33.47.03.87.16.56.57.520222050202520302040110 5594520222050202520302040405065 600502025203020402.93.33.74.85.84.96.67.87.87.5202220502025203020400.490.460.260.310.390.390.37Palladi
154、umPlatinumSupply forecast not available0.70.91.42.41.42.41.81233.03.25203020403.0353484920222050202520302040482.0 2.02.1 2.12.2 2.22.32.52.6202220502025203020402.47065758085908080802022205020252030204095SOURCE:Non-energy demand and secondary supply from Mission Possible Partner
155、ship/International Aluminium Institute,primary supply from BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook;2Non-energy demand from IEA(2021),The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions,supply from BNEF(2022),2H Battery Metals Outlook;3Non-energy demand from BNEF(2022),Global Copper Outlook,primar
156、y supply from BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook,secondary supply from non-energy transition is assumed to be 10%of primary supply;4Supply from BNEF(2022),2H Battery Metals Outlook;5Same as 2;6Non-energy demand from IEA(2021),The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions,supply estimat
157、ed assuming CAGR in REO production from 2010-21 continues to 2030,with neodymium making up 17%total supply;7Non-energy demand and supply from BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook;8Non-energy demand modelled from phase-out of ICE cars,adding other sector demand,following BNEF(2021)2H Hydrogen Market
158、Outlook;9Supply from BNEF(2023),1Q Global PV Market Outlook;10Non-energy demand and supply from Silver Institute(2022),World Silver Survey,extrapolated to 2050/30;11Non-energy demand and primary/secondary supply from Mission Possible Partnership;12Supply from World Nuclear Association(2021),The Nucl
159、ear Fuel Report:Expanded Summary.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition35Comparing the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario with planned supply suggests that:Steel and aluminium supply will grow broadly in line with increased demand to 2030,with a large and growing percentage of t
160、he supply of both coming from“secondary”(i.e.,recycled material)reflecting high existing end-of-life recycling rates for both materials.49 Recycling is also important for copper,but recycled supply from clean energy technologies plays a minimal role before 2030,as with other key battery materials(gr
161、aphite,lithium,cobalt,nickel),since very few EVs will have reached end of life by then.Although planned supply for many materials is expanding,it still falls short of demand in six key materials copper,graphite,lithium,nickel,cobalt and neodymium which are highlighted as the energy transition materi
162、als at greatest risk in Exhibit 2.5.50There will also be demand for specific chemicals driven by the deployment of CCS,both for industrial point sources and for direct air carbon capture.This is discussed in Box B.49 Current end-of-life recycling rates for steel and aluminium are around 75%and 70%.F
163、raunhofer ISI(2022),A dynamic material flow model for the European steel cycle,and MPP(2022),Making Net-Zero Steel/Aluminium Possible.50 We do not include silver in this group of materials of concern given the very high share of non-energy transition demand for silver,from which demand-shifting is p
164、ossible,alongside potential to increase secondary supply.The short-term challenge:Estimated supply growth for key materials is insufficient to meet rapidly rising demand by 2030EXHIBIT 2.5Annual demand and supply in 2030(Baseline Decarbonisation scenario)Million metric tonnesNOTE:The ETCs Baseline D
165、ecarbonisation scenario assumes an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies for global decarbonisation by mid-century,but materials intensity and recycling trends follow recent patterns.1Supply only shown for natural graphite it is likely that synthetic graphite could close most of the rem
166、aining supply gap.SOURCE FOR ENERGY TRANSITION DEMAND:SYSTEMIQ analysis for the ETC.SOURCE FOR NON-ENERGY TRANSITION DEMAND:Copper BNEF(2022),Global copper outlook;Nickel BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook,Lithium,Cobalt,Neodymium IEA(2021),The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions
167、.SOURCE FOR PRIMARY SUPPLY:Copper,Nickel BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook,and assuming recycled copper from non-energy transition sources is 10%of primary supply;Graphite Anodes,Lithium,Cobalt BNEF(2022),2H Battery metals outlook;Neodymium estimated assuming continued CAGR in rare earth oxide pr
168、oduction from 201021,through to 2030,with neodymium making up 17%of total supply.Recycled supply from energy transitionEnergy Transition Demand-BaselineNon-Energy Transition DemandEstimated mine supply Supply-Secondary(from other sources)203020227.03.81.1-45%203020220.430.250.17-40%203020220.770.510
169、.12-30%203020220.120.090.05-30%203020225.84.63.3-15%20302022403425-10%Graphite Anodes1CobaltLithiumNeodymiumNickelCopperMaterial and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition36 BOX B:Demand for chemicals from carbon capture and storageThe ETC has identified the use of CCUS in the energy transi
170、tion as vital,but limited.At most 710 GtCO2 of carbon capture could be required by 2050,across a wide range of applications including industrial point source CCS,BECCS and DACC Exhibit 2.6,LHS.51Both CCS and DACC make use of chemical sorbents/solvents that bind to carbon dioxide,to remove them from
171、the air or a stream of gases.Cycles of cooling and heating in the capture process lead to some degradation of the solvents,meaning that a fairly constant throughput of solvents is required for every tonne of CO2 that is captured.We have estimated chemicals requirements in the form of monoethanolamin
172、e,but in reality,a range of chemicals could be used.These are typical petrochemicals produced from hydrocarbons,but production using alternative feedstocks to fossil fuels should be feasible in coming decades(and there could be a shift to alternative solid-sorbent or membrane-based technologies).The
173、 scale-up in chemicals requirements would be fast and significant,exceeding current global annual production by the mid-2030s Exhibit 2.6,RHS.However,overall requirements by 2050 would correspond to an eight-fold increase from current production levels not unprecedented increase in the history of ch
174、emicals,e.g.volumes of nitrogen fertiliser production increased more than five-fold between 196080.5251 ETC(2022),CCUS in the energy transition:Vital but limited.52 Rocky Mountain Institute(2022),Direct air capture and the energy transition.The scale-up of solvent production required for DACC and CC
175、S is well within historical precedents for the chemicals industryEXHIBIT 2.6Potential future scenarios1 for CCUS deployment in 2050GtCO per annumChemical requirements for carbon captureMillion metric tonnes of monoethanolamine21 The two scenarios are designed to show the plausible range of CCUS requ
176、irements in 2050,depending on the evolution of technologies and costs over time.The Base scenario is aligned with previous ETC pathways that predominantly involved supply-side decarbonisation of the energy system see ETC(2020),Making mission possible;ETC(2022),Carbon capture,utilization&storage in t
177、he energy transition.2 Monoethanolamine is a chemical sorbent that is typically used for carbon capture,and is used here as a proxy for total demand across all sorbents.SOURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC;ETC(2022),Carbon capture,utilization&storage in the energy transition;RMI and Third Derivative
178、(2022),Direct air capture and the energy transition.Base0246810121416DACCBECCCementBlue hydrogenIron and steelFossil fuels processingFossil power710DACC-High DeploymentDACC+CCS-BaselineGlobal amine production in 2020Lower requirements for Base scenarioCCS-High DeploymentHigh Deployment20200.020.2125
179、8035204020452050Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition372.3 The potential for efficiency and recycling Pressure on the primary supply of materials can be significantly reduced over the long-term by increasing efficiency and reducing total material requirements,and by
180、 increasing recycling and thus the share of demand which is met by secondary supply.The impacts of these actions would become evident over different time horizons:Over the short term,actions to improve materials and technology efficiency have the strongest impact on reducing material demand,helping
181、to close supply gaps to 2030,with potential greatest in battery materials.Over the mid-to-long term,shifting to next-generation technologies and scaling recycling can together significantly reduce primary material requirements,leading to falling primary demand from the mid-2030s onwards.Secondary su
182、pply will play a major role in meeting demand from the late-2030s onwards for key materials such as cobalt,graphite and lithium.Exhibit 2.7 sets out the technological trends and actions which will make it possible to reduce primary material demand via both the technical innovation and recycling leve
183、rs.38Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionSOURCE:1 NREL(2022),Utility-scale PV;BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook 2 Walzberg et al.(2021),Role of the social factors in the success of solar photovoltaic reuse and recycling programmes;3 BNEF(2020),35MW Wind turbines to lower m
184、aterial demand;4 Wind Europe(2020),Accelerating wind turbine blade circularity;5 ENTSO-E Technopedia(2023),Dynamic line rating;6 BNEF(2020),Copper and aluminium compete to build the future power grid;Canary Media(2022),How to move more power with the transmission lines we already have;7 Pampel et al
185、.(2022),A systematic comparison of the packing density of battery cell-to-pack concepts at different degrees of implementation;8 Bloomberg(2022),The next big battery material squeeze is old batteries;9 IRENA(2020),Green hydrogen cost reduction;10 US Department of Energy(2015),Fuel cells fact sheet;1
186、1 Miller et al.(2020),Green hydrogen from anion exchange membrane water electrolysis;12 BNEF(2022),2H Nuclear market outlook;IAEA(2019)Frances efficiency in the nuclear fuel cycle.Technology trends and actions to drive innovation,efficiency and recyclingEXHIBIT 2.7Optimal siting,reduced inverter los
187、ses,slower degradation,drives capacity average factors up to 17%by 2050.1Operating lifetimes for solar farms go up to and beyond 35 years.Faster reductions in materials intensity,especially for silicon,aluminium and silver(in module)and copper(on site),driven by efficiency rising to 30%by 2050.1Sola
188、rWindTechnology and Materials EfficiencyRecycling and Waste Management123By 2040/50,over 70/90%of solar panels are collected for recycling at end-of-life.Initially,this could require incentives such as higher charges on landfill,subsidies for recycling,or higher payments for recovery of particular m
189、aterials to help scale recycling as it is not currently economical.212Increasing size of turbines,greater use of floating offshore,help drive higher capacity factors:up to 50/55%by 2050 for on/offshore wind.3 This in turn drives a lower materials intensity per TWh of electricity generated.Operating
190、lifetimes for wind farms go up to and beyond 35 years.If supply constraints are severe,a shift away from permanent-magnet based turbine designs can reduce requirements for rare earth elements.123By 2040/50,over 70/90%of wind turbines are collected for recycling at end-of-life.Currently almost all th
191、e body of a wind turbine,which is predominantly steel,can be recycled;the challenge is recycling blades made of complex fibres and composite materials.Funding for continued research,development and deployment will be crucial to enabling recycling of composite materials.4123Power GridsConnection of V
192、RE plants directly to distribution network uses lower-voltage cabling,which has lower materials needs than higher-voltage.Power flow routing,dynamic line-rating,digitalisation,smart demand management and other measures can increase efficiency and reduce redundancy in grid operation,reducing required
193、 grid build-out.5Slowing down shift towards underground cabling can help;underground cables are much more materials-intensive than overground.6 123Increasing collection of copper from redundant or end-of-life cabling etc.rates are assumed to reach 80/90%by 2040/50.Replacing older,inefficient cabling
194、 can both unlock old stocks of copper that can be recycled and increase the efficiency of the grid.12Batteries and Electric VehiclesImproved design and packing can help increase battery energy density,making vehicles lighter and improving range.7Shift away from SUV sales can help limit size of batte
195、ries in passenger and commercial vehicles e.g.average passenger vehicle has a battery of 55 kWh through to 2050.A faster shift to lithium iron phosphate(LFP)batteries can reduce requirements for nickel and cobalt;over long term(post-2030)sodium-ion batteries can reduce dependence on lithium.Increase
196、d doping of graphite anodes with silicon can reduce need for natural or synthetic graphite.Improved design,efficiency and integration of EV motors and battery can reduce copper,rare earth content.123By 2040/50 over 80/90%of batteries are collected for re-use or recycling at end-of-life.By 2040/50 ov
197、er 25/30%of EV batteries are re-used in stationary storage applications.Reducing EV battery capacity degradation:max 15%fall after operation,leaving sufficient capacity for secondary use in stationary storage.Existing Li-ion battery recycling capacity is being built out rapidly,running ahead of volu
198、mes of available scrap.8124534Electrolysers and Fuel CellsContinuous energy efficiency improvements for electrolysis,to reach 50%of market in 2025-35.Lower nickel intensity in electrolysers.Lower nickel-alloyed steel intensity of wind turbines.Improving efficiency,capacity factors for wind and solar
199、,reduces need for installations and copper intensity.Shift to aluminium in certain cases for power cables.Digitalisation,smart demand management,power flow routing help reduce required size of grid build-out.Baseline energy transition demandReduction in demand due to efficiency and innovation 204020
200、502004006008001000LithiumDrivers of efficiencyCobaltNickelCopper02022203020402050050002022203020402050200040006000800002022 2030 2040 20500000400005000060000Improving battery energy density,better packing efficiency,to achieve higher range for same materials.Smaller batteries i
201、n BEVs;average battery in passenger vehicles stays at 55 kWh,e.g.via tax on SUVs or large batteries.Demand for the energy transition(Baseline Decarbonisation Scenario)Demand for the energy transition(High Efficiency and Innovation Scenario)Non-energy transition demandSome of these trends are already
202、 taking place,driven by high prices and continuous innovation Exhibit 2.10:The ongoing shift to low-cobalt nickel-manganese-cobalt(NMC)and cobalt-free LFP batteries has driven down forecasts of future cobalt demand in 2030 by over 50%.56 In certain cases,when copper prices are high enough and projec
203、t specifications allow it,switching to aluminium for power cables has taken place reducing copper demand by 200500 kt each year between 200518.57Finally,as an illustration of the potential for a very different style of low-carbon power generation system,Box C outlines the trade-offs between land use
204、,material requirements and costs associated with an increased use of nuclear power.56 BNEF(2022),Long-term electric vehicle outlook.57 BNEF(2020),Copper and aluminium compete to build the future power grid.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition42Technology and material substitu
205、tion is already happening:projected demand for cobalt has fallen dramatically,and high copper prices incentivise a switch to aluminium in gridsEXHIBIT 2.101 Ratio of prices is adjusted to account for higher conductivity(a ratio of 1.66:1 Cu:Al).A value above 1 indicates aluminium is favoured over co
206、pper.SOURCE:BNEF(2022),Long-term electric vehicle outlook;BNEF(2021),Copper and aluminium compete to build the future power grid.Projected cobalt demandThousand metric tonnes50%reduction in forecast demand due to technology and materials substitutionAdjusted average copper-to-aluminium price ratio1(
207、LHS)and net substitution of copper(RHS)US$/kg(LHS);Thousand metric tons(RHS)00.005003003504004505000.51.01.52.02.5Net substitution copper3.0202020222024202620282030020052000300350BNEF forecast,2019BNEF forecast,2020BNEF forecast,2021BNEF forecast,2022Coppe
208、r preferredAluminium preferredCu/Al Ratio43Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition BOX C:What if we increased nuclear power generation 10 x?Nuclear power generation does in general have lower material intensity than solar and wind power,58 as well as much lower land use requirem
209、ents(for both mining of materials and siting/operation).59 However,nuclear power is also associated with much higher capital investment requirements than wind and solar,several times higher than solar.60 It would also require a expansion of uranium extraction,potentially reaching levels associated w
210、ith currently estimated reserves if extensive spent fuel recycling,or shifts to alternative fuels,did not become widespread.Expanding nuclear capacity could be an option to reduce the requirements of land and raw materials from the build-out of wind and solar for power generation.Exhibit 2.11 illust
211、rates a scenario where nuclear power plays a much larger role than expected,which could help alleviate materials requirements but would lead to significantly higher investment requirements in power generation.These trade-offs would need careful consideration in order to weigh up the benefits of one
212、particular technology over another.58 See e.g.,IEA(2021),The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions;IEA(2023),Energy technology perspectives.59 Our World in Data(2022),How does the land use of different electricity sources compare?60 Lazard(2023),Levelised cost of energy analysis Vers
213、ion 15.0;Lovering et al.(2016),Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors.Scaling the use of nuclear power could reduce land use and copper needs but would come with high uranium demand and a higher cost for the power generation systemEXHIBIT 2.111 Assumes that increased nuclear
214、generation directly replaces only wind and solar,split 50:50.2 Range depends on scale of uranium recycling,uranium fuel loading of reactors and the ramp-up in nuclear generation over coming decades.3 Calculated as the difference in capital investment needs for wind,solar and nuclear capacity in the
215、Baseline and 10 x Nuclear scenarios,and using capital investment costs from Lazard(2023),Levelised cost of energy analysis Version 15.0 and from Lovering et al.(2016),Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors.This does not account for differences in storage or grid investments.S
216、OURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC;Our World in Data(2022),Land use of energy sources per unit of electricity;UNECE(2021),Lifecycle assessment of electricity generation options.A power system with 10 x more nuclear by 2050Half the amount of land needed for power generationLower copper demand but hi
217、gher uranium needsA more expensive power generation system$6 trillionNuclear has lower land and copper intensity,but higher costPower generation,TWhLand intensity,m2/MWhCumulative copper energy transition demand,202250,Mt20202050-Baseline2050-10 x Nuclear1281101104.545SolarWindNuclearOther0.3Solar15
218、NuclearCopper intensity,t/MWOffshore Wind11Onshore Wind5Solar3Nuclear1.5Capital cost,$bn/GWCapacity factor,%in additional capital investment required for power generation3Nuclear6Offshore Wind4Onshore Wind1.4Solar1.075-90%40-55%25-40%14-17%Baseline land for wind and solar:620,000 km210 x Nuclear lan
219、d for wind and solar:310,000 km2Around 300,000 km2 less land needed for power generation0200BaselineResources5,60010 xNuclear6305502002002005,4005,600-15%Cumulative uranium energy transition demand,202250,Mt202BaselineResources810 xNuclear1-23-84681012x4Material and Resource Requirements for the Ene
220、rgy Transition442.3.2 Increased recycling small potential to 2030 but very large by 2040s By 2050,its plausible that the majority of new demand requirements from clean energy technologies could be met through secondary supply.But over the short-term to 2030,less than 10%of demand from the energy tra
221、nsition is likely to be met through recycling.This is because:Existing end-of-life recycling rates are currently low and will take time to increase:Current levels of recycling vary significantly across materials,with aluminium,steel and copper quite widely recycled,as well as certain highly valuable
222、 metals such as platinum see Box D and Exhibit 2.12.Many key battery materials,however,have low recycling rates;this is especially the case for lithium,where low collection and technical challenges make recovery of lithium difficult or prohibitively expensive and mean less than 1%is recycled at end
223、of life.61 Timescales for stock turnover of clean energy technologies:Secondary supply can only be scaled up as clean energy products reach end of life.This means that much of the lithium,copper or silicon in use in batteries,grids and solar panels that is sold in the coming years will not become av
224、ailable for decades.Over the long term,however,there is significant potential to improve recycling and waste management rates for a range of products and processes,with a major impact on the volume of primary supply required,but only from 2040 onwards Exhibit 2.13.Accelerating recycling on its own w
225、ill not be sufficient to close supply gaps in 2030.BOX D:The current status of recyclingAlthough many comparisons are made with recycling from electronic waste,clean energy technologies tend to be large,industrial machinery making the potential for recycling much more comparable to recycling from he
226、avy industry where collection rates are high,such as for grid infrastructure or vehicles.62Two key factors underpin high recycling levels:high value/prices for materials,and the existence of business-to-business models.As soon a system shifts to consumer-facing models more individual incentives need
227、 to be aligned,making recycling more challenging.63Copper,aluminium and steel are commonly recycled for example,secondary supply of Aluminium is around 35%of total supply currently Exhibit 2.12,LHS.64 However,current recycling rates for lithium and rare earth elements(including neodymium)are very lo
228、w technical efficiency improvements are needed alongside a concerted effort to improve end-of-life collection.For batteries,three factors are key to recycling effectively:the battery chemistry(which dictates embedded value of materials),the recycling approach(which determines recovery rates and oper
229、ating costs),and the location of recycling Exhibit 2.12,RHS.Battery recycling capacity is already expanding rapidly to the point where over-capacity is possible,with 750 kt p.a.of recycling capacity expected in 2030 but supply of only around 320 kt p.a.of scrap available as battery manufacturers pus
230、h to reduce waste during production.65There is also strong potential to increase secondary supply of materials from non-energy transition sources of material use.This is especially the case for copper,where approximately 460 Mt of copper are currently in use across the already-built power system,tra
231、nsport,buildings,appliances and more.66 For example,there could be up to 30 Mt of copper in existing power plants,67 a large fraction of which could be recovered as coal-and gas-fired power plants are decommissioned.Improvements in the collection and recycling of copper at end of life within clean e
232、nergy technologies could result in secondary supply growing to reach over 7 Mt by 2050,meeting over 40%of total energy transition demands.But if more copper could be recovered from existing sources and recycled or re-used,incentivised by high prices and/or regulation,an even higher fraction of futur
233、e demand for copper could be met from the existing stock of copper in the wider economy.61 Lander et al.(2021),Financial viability of battery recycling.62 Wang et al.(2018),Copper recycling flow model for the United States economy;Hagelken and Goldmann(2022),Recycling and circular economy towards a
234、closed loop for metals in emerging clean technologies.63 Hagelken and Goldmann(2022),Recycling and circular economy towards a closed loop for metals in emerging clean technologies.64 MPP(2022),Making net-zero aluminium possible.65 Bloomberg(2022),The next big battery material squeeze is old batterie
235、s.66 Copper Alliance(2022),Copper Recycling.67 Kalt et al.(2021),Material stocks in global electricity infrastructures An empirical analysis of the power sectors stock-flow-service nexus.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition45BOX D:The current status of recyclingCurrent recycl
236、ing rates for some energy transition materials are low;recycling LFP and LMO batteries faces strongest challengesEXHIBIT 2.121 For a 240 Wh/kg battery,and includes transportation(starting in the UK),disassembly,recycling costs and revenues generated from resale of materials from both cells and packs
237、.NCA=Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminium;NMC=Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt;LFP=Lithium-Iron-Phosphate;LMO=Lithium-Manganese-Oxide.Pyro=pyrometallurgy,a heat-based extraction and purification process;Hydro=hydrometallurgy,a process that involves dissolving and recovering metals in solutions;Direct battery recycling in
238、volves shredding a battery to separate components,without breaking down the chemical structure of key active materials in the anode and cathode.SOURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC;IEA(2021),The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions;Lander et al.(2021),Financial viability of electric
239、 vehicle lithium-ion battery recycling.End-of-life recycling rateGlobal average,%Net battery recycling profit1$/kWh-25-20-15-10-5051015202575SteelAluminiumCopperNickelSilverPlatinum andPalladiumCobaltSiliconGraphiteLithiumRare EarthElements70606060Large potential to increase recycling rates at end-o
240、f-life403010111ChinaPyroHydroDirectS.KoreaUSABelgiumUKNCANMC-622NMC-811LMOLFPNCANMC-622NMC-811LMOLFPNCANMC-622NMC-811LMOLFPNCANMC-622NMC-811LMOLFPNCANMC-622NMC-811LMOLFPMaterial and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition46By the late 2040s Exhibit 2.14:68 Over 50%of energy transition demand
241、 could be met by recycled supply for three key battery materials:cobalt,graphite and lithium.This would follow from a major ramp-up in end-of-life collection,with over 80%of batteries being collected at end of life from 2040 onwards,and high recycling rates of 90%from 2030 onwards(85%for lithium).69
242、 In the case of copper or aluminium,secondary supply would be able to meet 3040%of energy transition demand somewhat lower,but still a significant share.For both materials,and especially for copper,there is also strong potential to expand recycling from other sources of demand Box D.For other materi
243、als,such as silicon or steel,long technology lifetimes(e.g.,30 years for a solar or wind farm)mean that volumes of secondary supply from clean energy technologies would remain low even in 2050 but with strong potential in subsequent years.68 These estimates do not account for potential secondary sup
244、ply from non-energy transition sources which could increase significantly over coming decades as well for e.g.,copper or aluminium,but is out of the scope of this report.69 Circular Economy Initiative Deutschland(202),Resource-efficiency battery life cycles.Improve lithium recycling at end-of-life f
245、rom 1%currently to 90%by 2040.Improve nickel recycling at end-of-life from 60%currently to 90%by 2040.Improve cobalt recycling at end-of-life from 30%currently to 90%by 2040.Improving collection at end-of-life across all clean energy technologies,with a particular focus on grids being repaired/repla
246、ced and on vehicles at end-of-life.Increasing copper recycling at end-of-life from 60%currently to 90%by 2040.LithiumDrivers of recycling CobaltNickelCopperIncrease collection of batteries at end of life,reaching 80/90%by 2040/50.Expand battery recycling capacity to handle 1 Mt of battery materials
247、by 2030,5 Mt by 2050.Recycled supply will remain low in 2030,but could be significant from 2040s onwardsEXHIBIT 2.13NOTE:The ETCs Baseline Decarbonisation scenario assumes an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies for global decarbonisation by mid-century,but materials intensity and recy
248、cling trends follow recent patterns.The High Recycling scenario assumes accelerated progress in recycling clean energy technologies and recovering materials.Secondary supply only measures that from clean energy technologies.SOURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC.Annual energy transition demand and sec
249、ondary supplyThousand metric tonnes0202220302040205020222030204020502022 2030 2040 20502022 2030 2040 205020040000050000000250003000004000500006008001000Baseline energy transition demand Energy transition demand(Baseline Decarbonisation scenario)Additional secondary
250、supply in High Recycling Secondary supply in baseline Secondary Supply(Baseline Decarbonisation scenario)Secondary Supply(High Recycling scenario)Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition47By 2050,its plausible that the majority of new demand requirements from clean energy technol
251、ogies could be met through secondary supply Exhibit 2.14.However,strong action is required throughout the 2020s to ensure that policy,incentives and infrastructure are in place to scale-up the role of recycling significantly in coming decades especially for batteries Box E.These actions are discusse
252、d in Section 2.5 below.With improving policies,logistics and infrastructure,recycling has the potential to serve large shares of key material requirements by 2050EXHIBIT 2.14NOTE:Uranium is not included due to the strong uncertainty around scale of future use of recycled fuel in nuclear reactors and
253、 uncertainty around recycling rates.The ETCs Baseline Decarbonisation scenario assumes an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies for global decarbonisation by mid-century,but materials intensity and recycling trends follow recent patterns.The High Recycling scenario assumes accelerated p
254、rogress in recycling clean energy technologies and recovering materials.SOURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC.Average share of annual materials demand for the energy transition that could be met by secondary supply(High Recycling scenario),2050%Cobalt807060484545403030151010GraphiteLithiumNickelCoppe
255、rNeodymiumPlatinumAluminiumPalladiumSteelSilverSiliconFor some materials over 50%of demand from clean energy technologies could be met by recycled secondary supply in 2050.For silver,steel,silicon,materials are often locked in to solar PV and wind farms which have lifetimes of 30 years.Thus low volu
256、mes are available for recycling even by 2050,but more would likely be available in following years.Criteria for policy intervention to support recyclingWhere significant supply shortages are likely.Where recycling can reduce environmental impacts significantly relative to mining.Where landfill is no
257、t appropriate(e.g.due to risk of toxic waste).Actions to scale recyclingCreate a market for secondary materials,via regulation or incentives.Increase rates of waste collection at end-of-life.Improve design to make recycling easier.Increase efficiency/yield of recycling processes.Material and Resourc
258、e Requirements for the Energy Transition48 Box E:The importance of recycling of batteries in particularThe importance and prevalence of recycling across clean energy technologies will depend on recoverable material value,available logistics and infrastructure,and costs.For wind turbines and solar pa
259、nels,large-scale recycling is feasible and should be strongly encouraged but landfill volumes would be small and manageable even if widespread recycling were not economic:In the case of wind turbines,up to 90%of a wind turbines mass can be recycled(excluding the concrete base),and there are establis
260、hed recycling systems for the foundation,tower and parts of the nacelle.70 The key challenge remains recycling of turbine blades,but even here innovation is taking place to use new advanced composites that can be more easily recycled.71 Similarly for solar panels,over 90%of materials can be recovere
261、d and recycled or re-used in other sectors.72 Even if no recycling took place,however,the mass of solar panel materials reaching end-of-life in 2050 would be around 20 million tonnes of waste globally.73 For wind,by 2050 there would be just 100,000 tonnes of wind turbine blades reaching end-of-life.
262、Such waste should ideally re-used or recycled,but if it was placed in landfill the total mass would be low and manageable compared with around 200 million tonnes of metals and glass waste produced currently,and total global waste production of up to 3.4 billion tonnes by 2050.74 For batteries the pi
263、cture is different.The objective should be close to 100%re-use or recycling,given the high cost of primary mineral inputs,the potential for supply bottlenecks to constrain demand growth,and the significant environmental impacts of mining challenges which are much lower for solar and wind.Close to to
264、tal recycling is already technically feasible,and the high cost of primary minerals creates strong economic incentives for it to be deployed.In the case of NMC batteries(which include cobalt and nickel as well as lithium)extensive recycling would occur even without regulation;by contrast LFP batteri
265、es(where only the lithium is highly valuable),might not be fully recycled without strong regulation.75Strong public policy should therefore require that EV batteries are either re-used in stationary storage applications or almost entirely recycled.Policies already in place and needed to achieve this
266、 are discussed in Chapter 2,Section 2.5.3.2.3.3 Combined effect of efficiency and recycling Combining efficiency and recycling could see demand for primary materials extraction fall by 20%(silver)to up to 80%in some cases(cobalt).Exhibit 2.15 sets out projected demand under the Maximum Efficiency an
267、d Recycling scenario.Compared with the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario Exhibit 2.4,this results in reductions in cumulative primary demand from the energy transition,as shown in Exhibit 2.16,of:Demand for primary steel down nearly 30%,for aluminium down 25%,and for copper down 40%.For battery mate
268、rials,shorter battery lifetimes and a large potential increase in end-of-life recycling(from near-zero levels)mean reductions in primary demand could be very large:primary cobalt demand falls by nearly 80%,nickel demand falls by nearly 60%,lithium 55%,and graphite nearly 50%.A range of reductions fr
269、om 20%to 60%for other energy transition materials.As an example,Exhibit 2.17 sets out the potential primary demand reduction for nickel across the different efficiency and recycling levers included in this study.Cumulative primary demand to support the energy transition could fall by over 50%,cuttin
270、g total primary nickel demand by 30%.These reductions derive primarily from a shift to nickel-free battery chemistries,smaller batteries,improvements in battery energy density,and increased recycling.(Similar analysis is available for cobalt,copper,graphite,lithium and neodymium in our accompanying
271、Material Factsheets.)70 Wind Europe(2020),Accelerating wind turbine blade circularity.71 Ibid.72 Heath et al.(2020),Research and development priorities for silicon photovoltaic module recycling to support a circular economy;Engie(2021),How are solar panels recycled?73 For wind,assuming 100 GW reach
272、end-of-life,an average turbine capacity of 10 MW,and an average mass of around 3.5 tonnes per wind turbine blades.For solar,assuming around 200 GW of solar reaching end-of-life,and a material mass intensity of around 100 t/MW(excluding concrete).Systemiq analysis for the ETC,based on Wind Europe(202
273、0),Accelerating wind turbine blade circularity;Heath et al.(2020),Research and development priorities for silicon photovoltaic module recycling to support a circular economy;Carrara et al./EU JRC(2020),Raw materials demand for wind and solar PV technologies in the transition towards a decarbonized e
274、nergy system.74 World Bank(2018),Trends in solid waste management.75 Lander et al.(2021),Financial viability of electric vehicle lithium-ion battery recycling.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition49Supply-Secondary Supply-Secondary(from Energy Transition)Maximum Efficiency and
275、 Recycling:Annual material demand and supplyEXHIBIT 2.15Aluminium1(Million metric tonnes)Cobalt2(Thousand metric tonnes)110 55Copper3(Million metric tonnes)Graphite Anodes4(Million metric tonnes)Lithium5(Thousand metric tonnes)Neodymium6(Thousand metric tonnes)Steel11(Billion m
276、etric tonnes)Uranium12(Thousand metric tonnes)20222050202520302040Nickel7(Million metric tonnes)Platinum&Palladium8(Thousand metric tonnes)Polysilicon9(Million metric tonnes)Silver10(Thousand metric tonnes)5230533520222050202520302040270202220502025203020402325263135 3538454642
277、202220502025203020400.51.12.43.66.64.45.24.24.35.25203020400600555605540560545202220502025203020404050556590 90952220502025203020402.93.33.34.84.04.74.85.35.35.2202220502025203020400.490.460.260.270.290.290.29PalladiumPlatinumSupply forecast not available0.70.91.32.4
278、1.32.41.41.31.3202220502025203020401.4353444420222050202520302040442.0 2.02.1 2.12.2 2.22.22.42.5202220502025203020402.3556560857022205020252030204080SOURCE:Non-energy demand and secondary supply from Mission Possible Partnership/International Aluminium Institute,primary supply
279、 from BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook;2Non-energy demand from IEA(2021),The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions,supply from BNEF(2022),2H Battery Metals Outlook;3Non-energy demand from BNEF(2022),Global Copper Outlook,primary supply from BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook,se
280、condary supply from non-energy transition is assumed to be 10%of primary supply;4Supply from BNEF(2022),2H Battery Metals Outlook;5Sources same as for Lithium;6Non-energy demand from IEA(2021),The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions,supply estimated assuming CAGR in REO production
281、from 201021 continues to 2030,with neodymium making up 17%total supply;7Non-energy demand and supply from BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook;8Non-energy demand modelled from phase-out of ICE cars,adding other sector demand,following BNEF(2021),2H Hydrogen Market Outlook;9Supply from BNEF(2023),1Q
282、Global PV Market Outlook;10Non-energy demand and supply from Silver Institute(2022),World Silver Survey,extrapolated to 2050/30;11Non-energy demand and primary/secondary supply from Mission Possible Partnership;12Supply from World Nuclear Association(2021),The Nuclear Fuel Report:Expanded Summary.En
283、ergy Transition DemandNon-Energy Transition DemandEstimated supply-PrimaryMaterial and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition50Efficiency and recycling can reduce primary material requirements significantly but more innovation and policy is neededEXHIBIT 2.16NOTE:The ETCs Baseline Decarboni
284、sation scenario assumes an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies for global decarbonisation by mid-century,but materials intensity and recycling trends follow recent patterns.The Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenario assumes accelerated progress in material and technology efficiency
285、,and recycling of clean energy technologies/materials,thereby reducing requirements for the primary(i.e.,mined)supply of materials.SOURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC.Cumulative primary demand from the energy transition 202250Million metric tonnes(all materials except platinum and palladium);Thousa
286、nd metric tonnes(platinum and palladium)Baseline DecarbonisationMaximum Efficiency and RecyclingIndustrial MaterialsBattery MaterialsOther Energy Transition MaterialsInnovation and efficiency improvements are strongest drivers of reductions in silicon,silver and PGM needs in solar and electrolysers.
287、Innovation to reduce materials intensity and strong potential for battery recycling lead to large reductions in primary materials.High wind and solar capacity lower installations and material requirements.Mt5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500Steel3,4006007904,7000Aluminium-30%-25%300525
288、Copper-40%Mt0755025Graphite8040801600Nickel-50%-50%16Cobalt-80%820Lithium-60%kt2,52,01,51,00,5Platinum andPalladium1.02.40-60%Mt755025Silicon40650-40%Neodymium Uranium1.02.5-60%1.02.0-50%Silver0.290.36-20%51Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionExample:primary demand
289、 for nickel can be reduced by new battery chemistries,reducing nickel intensity of alkaline electrolysers,and more recyclingEXHIBIT 2.17NOTE:The ETCs Baseline Decarbonisation scenario assumes an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies for global decarbonisation by mid-century,but material
290、s intensity and recycling trends follow recent patterns.The High Efficiency Scenario assumes accelerated progress in material and technology efficiency,while the High Recycling Scenario assumes much greater recycling of clean energy technologies.The Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenario brings t
291、he assumptions in High Efficiency and High Recycling together.Nickel cumulative primary demand 202250,reductions due to efficiency and recycling levers,and resources and reservesMillion metric tonsHigh EfficiencyHigh RecyclingBaseline Decarbonisation Primary Demand170Non-EnergyTransition Demand71120
292、0Materials EfficiencyandSubstitutionTech Performance and ManagementTech SubstitutionImproving scrap managementImproving end-of-life recycling rates Improving recycling process efficiency Maximum Efficiency and Recycling Primary DemandReservesResources-30%Main driver is a faster switch to
293、LFP batteries with no nickel.Lower additional potential for recycling due to reasonably high existing recycling rates.Reserves will still need to expand,but efficiency and recycling significantly reduce by how much.2.3.4 Further potential demand reductions through energy productivityAdditionally,the
294、re is likely to be significant potential to further reduce future material demands through actions which go beyond technological innovation,material efficiency and recycling,by improving the efficiency of energy(e.g.by reducing electricity demand through appliance efficiency)and service consumption(
295、e.g.by shifting more journeys to shared public transportation).The ETC are covering this question in detail in coming months,but earlier analysis suggested that final energy demand in 2050 could be reduced by up to 30%.76 Some of the biggest potential opportunities,which the ETC is investigating thi
296、s year,include:The potential to greatly improve energy efficiency of both existing building stock(e.g.,retrofits to improve insulation and the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps)and new builds(e.g.,through materials efficiency).Shifts in consumer behaviour(e.g.,car sharing,public transportat
297、ion)and better urban design can lower individual passenger vehicle ownership.Various investments across the industrial sectors to electrify,develop energy/heat storage solutions,and improve the energy efficiency of motors,machinery and equipment.76 Final energy demand could range from around 495 EJ
298、in 2050,down to around 355 EJ if strong actions is taken to improve energy productivity.ETC(2020),Making mission possible.The ETCs detailed report on energy productivity is forthcoming in Q1 2024.Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition52To illustrate the potential impact on mate
299、rials,if the total fleet of EVs could be reduced by around 10%in 2050(to around 1.3 billion vehicles),this could reduce cumulative lithium demand to 2050 from 22 Mt down to around 20 Mt having knock-on impacts on annual demand-supply gaps,total life-cycle emissions of material extraction,and any loc
300、al environmental impacts.Clearly,if such actions were taken there could be further decreases in materials demand from clean energy technologies,beyond the efficiency and recycling measures outlined here.The potential for energy productivity will be covered in an upcoming ETC report.2.4 Reserves and
301、supply gaps with efficiency and recycling improvements If the raw material demand reductions potentially available from greater materials and technology efficiency and increased recycling can be achieved,this will improve both the relationship between:Cumulative potential demand and known reserves.T
302、he balance between likely demand and planned supply in the next decade.Yet even with maximum potential demand reductions,a significant expansion of supply will be essential for some key materials.2.4.1 Impact on reserve adequacy Chapter 1 compared currently assessed reserves and resources versus cum
303、ulative potential demand under the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario.Exhibit 2.18 shows the impact of achieving the Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenario on reserve scarcity,and identifies three groups of materials:No reserve scarcity concerns:where even under the Baseline Decarbonisation scenar
304、io,cumulative primary materials demand is well below currently estimated reserves.This group includes aluminium,neodymium,steel,uranium and others.Significant demand reduction to below current reserves:These include lithium and cobalt,where under the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario,cumulative dema
305、nd was either close to reserves(lithium)or significantly in excess(cobalt),but where improved efficiency,material substitution(e.g.,cobalt-free batteries)and recycling can reduce primary demand well below reserves.Demand reduction but still exceeding current reserves:This group includes copper,nicke
306、l and silver where cumulative demand would still exceed currently assessed reserves even with strong action on efficiency and recycling.This implies increased exploration or development is needed to drive an expansion in exploitable reserves or a major expansion in efficiency and recycling beyond wh
307、at is expected.53Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionEfficiency and recycling levers can mitigate total resource requirements for lithium and cobalt,but reserves would still need to expand for copper,nickel and silverEXHIBIT 2.181 Graphite reserves/resources refer to natural
308、graphite,do not include synthetic graphite.NOTE:The ETCs Baseline Decarbonisation scenario assumes an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies for global decarbonisation by mid-century,but materials intensity and recycling trends follow recent patterns.The Maximum Efficiency and Recycling
309、scenario assumes accelerated progress in material and technology efficiency,and recycling clean energy technologies,thereby reducing requirements for the primary(i.e.,mined)supply of materials.Reserves are the currently economically and technically extractable subset of estimated total global resour
310、ces in the earths crust.SOURCE:Systemiq analysis for the ETC.Cumulative primary demand 202250,as a percentage of known reserves%No reserve scarcity concernsBaseline DecarbonisationEfficiency and recycling reduce requirements to significantly below reservesEfficiency and recycling are not enough to r
311、educe primary requirements reserves will need to expandMaximum Efficiency and RecyclingAluminium(Bauxite)353050503008054025Graphiteanodes1 NeodymiumPalladium/PlatinumSteel(Iron)UraniumLithiumCobaltCopperNickelSilverCurrently estimated reserves0500Although
312、future silver demand is very large,80%of this is driven by non-energy demand(industry,jewellery,investment)2.4.2 Impact on supply gaps to 2030 Exhibit 2.15 shows how the Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenario compares with planned supply growth to 2030 for all materials.Exhibit 2.19 focuses on th
313、e supply/demand balance in 2030 for the six key materials which are likely to face significant supply constraints in the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario.In the case of nickel and copper,strong action to reduce total demand for materials,coupled with a small increase in secondary supply from energy
314、 transition technologies,could lead to a complete closure of the projected supply gaps in 2030.However,there may still be shortages for supply of high-purity nickel sulphate,the key refined input for battery cathodes Box F.However,supply gaps would remain for graphite,lithium,cobalt and neodymium:In
315、 the case of graphite,the risks associated with supply gaps is somewhat lower,as production of synthetic graphite(alongside natural graphite,which is mined)can ramp up quite quickly.For neodymium,the potential supply gap is small and there is increased potential for electric vehicles and wind turbin
316、es to shift to entirely rare-earth free motors,although these would require accelerated development.7777 See e.g.US Department of Energy(2019),Advanced wind turbine drivetrain trends and opportunities;Adamas Intelligence(2023),Implications:Tesla announces next generation rare-earth-free PMSM.Materia
317、l and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition54 For cobalt,there remain some uncertainties around future supply from the DRC,which has led to downward revisions in supply projections over the past year.78 However,there is also strong potential supply expansion from Indonesia which could help
318、 close supply gaps further,and there is strong potential to reduce future demand by shifting to low-cobalt and cobalt-free battery chemistries potentially going even further than illustrated here.79 For lithium,substitution and demand reduction(from e.g.,shifting to smaller batteries and the growth
319、of sodium-ion(Na-ion)chemistries)beyond the levels in the Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenario will be challenging.Existing mined supply pipelines will need to expand even further than current levels of up to 510 kt per annum by 2030,80 with a greater number of projects needing to reach final i
320、nvestment decisions in the coming years.There could also be shortages of refined lithium hydroxide/carbonate Box F.78 BNEF(2022),2H Battery metals outlook.79 M(2023),Indonesia emerges as a cobalt powerhouse amid surge in demand.80 BNEF(2022),2H Battery metals outlook.Strong action on innovation,effi
321、ciency and recycling together can close supply gaps entirely for nickel and copper but risks remain for several energy transition metalsEXHIBIT 2.19Annual demand and supply in 2030(Baseline Decarbonisation vs.Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenarios)Million metric tonnesNOTE:The ETCs Baseline Deca
322、rbonisation scenario assumes an aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies for global decarbonisation by mid-century,but materials intensity and recycling trends follow recent patterns.The Maximum Efficiency and Recycling scenario assumes accelerated progress in material and technology effic
323、iency,and recycling clean energy technologies,thereby reducing requirements for primary materials.1 Supply only shown for natural graphite it is likely that synthetic graphite could close most of the remaining supply gap.SOURCE FOR ENERGY TRANSITION DEMAND:SYSTEMIQ analysis for the ETC.SOURCE FOR NO
324、N-ENERGY TRANSITION DEMAND:Copper BNEF(2022),Global copper outlook;Nickel BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook,Lithium,Cobalt,Neodymium IEA(2021),The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions.SOURCE FOR PRIMARY SUPPLY:Copper,Nickel BNEF(2023),Transition metals outlook,and assuming recycl
325、ed copper from non-energy transition sources is 10%of primary supply;Graphite Anodes,Lithium,Cobalt BNEF(2022),2H Battery metals outlook;Neodymium estimated assuming continued CAGR in rare earth oxide production from 201021,through to 2030,with neodymium making up 17%of total supply.Recycled supply
326、from energy transitionEnergy Transition Demand BaselineNon-Energy Transition DemandEstimated mine supply Supply Secondary(from other sources)Energy Transition Demand Maximum Efficiency and RecyclingGraphite Anodes1CobaltLithiumNeodymiumNickelCopperProjected supply gaps closed20222030Reduction in tot
327、al demand due to efficiencyIncrease in recycling,reducing primary demand1.17.06.63.8-40%202220300.170.430.270.25-5%202220300.120.770.600.51-10%202220303.35.84.04.6+20%2022203025403534+1%202220300.050.120.090.09-5%Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition55 BOX F:Supply of refined
328、vs.mined materialsThis chapter has discussed end-use material requirements for clean energy technologies and compared them to expected supply of the relevant materials.Typically some amount of processing and/or refining is required to go from mined products to end-use materials.For example:Steel:In
329、most cases,iron ore is mined and converted into pig iron in a blast furnace(in some cases,sponge iron is produced);there are then various stages of primary and secondary steelmaking,where impurities are removed from the iron and other elements are added to create steel of the desired composition.Typ
330、ically,two tonnes of iron ore are needed to produce or one tonne of iron or steel.In this report we compare demand and supply for steel,not iron ore.Aluminium:Bauxite is mined;this is then refined into alumina(Al2O3),which is then smelted to produce aluminium.Typically,four tonnes of bauxite contain
331、 two tonnes of alumina,needed to produce one tonne of aluminium.In this report we compare demand and supply of aluminium,not bauxite.Lithium:Lithium can be extracted from brines or mined in hard rock ores.Depending on the extraction method,various stages of treatment and purification are carried out
332、,with lithium refineries creating very high-purity lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate for use in batteries.When mined from hard rock such as spodumene,around 170 tonnes of spodumene are needed to produce one tonne of lithium,and lithium carbonate contains around 19%pure lithium.In this report we
333、 compare demand of pure lithium contained in end-products(batteries)with mined supply of lithium.Nickel or Cobalt:Both nickel and cobalt are mined in as part of ores,with cobalt being co-produced alongside either copper or nickel.Application of both metals in steel alloys can make use of their metallic forms,but both materials need to be refined into high-purity cobalt/nickel sulphate to then be u