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1、Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 EditionI N S I G H T R E P O R TN O V E M B E R 2 0 2 3In collaboration with AccentureForewordExecutive summaryIntroduction1 Cross industry findings2 Aviation industry net-zero tracker3 Shipping industry net-zero tracker4 Trucking industry net-zero tracker5 Steel indus
2、try net-zero tracker6 Cement industry net-zero tracker7 Aluminium industry net-zero tracker8 Ammonia industry net-zero tracker9 Oil and gas industry net-zero trackerConclusionAppendicesA1:Abbreviations and acronymsA2:Mission and methodologyA3:Data sourcesContributorsEndnotesContentsImages:Getty Imag
3、es346922334454657586970112113116 2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is publi
4、shed by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the vi
5、ews of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition2ForewordIn a decade marked by economic expansion and surging demand for goods and transport,we face a paradoxical challenge:How can we address climate change while fo
6、stering economic growth and resilience?This challenge is particularly difficult for companies operating in the steel,cement,aluminium,ammonia,energy and transport sectors.These companies are critical to satisfying future demand and enabling economic growth.Yet,they contribute over 40%of the worlds g
7、reenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.Their emissions are difficult,but critical to abate.It is encouraging that many businesses have made significant progress towards their 2050 net-zero goals.Yet most of that momentum is seen in companies with easily abatable emissions,substantial financial resources to inv
8、est in decarbonization,public accountability or those operating in advanced economies with supportive policies.A gap remains between those abatement leaders and companies experiencing greater emission intensity,operating in emerging economies or lacking the financial means to embark on a substantial
9、 decarbonization journey.The challenges facing these companies and sectors are pernicious and exacerbated by the fact that their technologies,infrastructures and policy frameworks often fall short.Through this effort,the World Economic Forum,with support from Accenture,intends to accelerate decarbon
10、ization of emission-intensive production,energy and transport industries.Our aim is to ensure that no company is left behind in the transition to a more sustainable and carbon-neutral future,for which timely and consistent monitoring of industrial decarbonization is essential.This practice is crucia
11、l to helping companies and industries maintain a steady pace of progress.Still,it first requires a consensus on definitions and thresholds of low-emission products and services from these sectors.Without that,it will be difficult to achieve the transparency needed to build confidence and reinforce t
12、he momentum to net zero.The Net-Zero Industry Tracker focuses on production,transport and energy sectors.Decarbonizing these industries processes and value chains will require more than technological advancements.The effort must encompass business operations,regulations and wider cross-sectoral coll
13、aboration.While some countries are issuing supportive policies and financial commitments,the reality is that these sectorsarelagging.We believe a course correction is still possible.It will require industrial leaders to champion innovative business models and shared infrastructures,such as hubs and
14、clusters,that provide greater access to development opportunities and promote equitable sector growth.A successful transition will also require significant financial commitments;we estimate roughly$13.5 trillion will be needed to build the clean power and electrification,hydrogen and carbon capture
15、utilization and storage(CCUS)solutions and infrastructure to meet demand.Bi-directional partnerships and cross-industry collaboration will also be important in stimulating demand for(and adoption of)low-emission products and clean power-based technologies,developing industrial applications and pursu
16、ing new market opportunities.Sector-specific policies and regulations are essential.So are cross-regional policies that can help bridge disparities among regions.Industrial decarbonization remains one of the most daunting challenges of the energy transition.Every country and industry must determine
17、how to incentivize domestic benefits and create quality jobs while ensuring the principles of free trade and open markets.The key findings from the 2023 Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement confirm that reaching global net zero by 2050 requires much more ambitious actions and far greater support
18、than we have seen.The reality is that the choices and actions taken in this decade will significantly shape the trajectory of our collective futures.Roberto Bocca Head,Centre for Energy and Materials;Member of the Executive Committee,World Economic ForumMuqsit Ashraf Global Strategy Lead,Accenture N
19、et-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 EditionNovember 2023Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition3Executive summaryThe World Economic Forums Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition provides a detailed analysis of the progress emission-intensive industrial sectors are making worldwide,in their efforts to achie
20、ve net-zero emissions by 2050.This analysis focuses on sector-specific accelerators and priorities in the harder-to-abate aspects within production(i.e.steel,cement,aluminium and ammonia),energy(i.e.oil and gas)and transport(i.e.aviation,shipping and trucking).Collectively,process-and energy-related
21、 emissions from these sectors account for more than 40%of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,which is higher than the emissions of any individual country.For that reason,transparency on the progress these sectors are making is essential for timely and effective interventions to ensure we are on tra
22、ck for net-zero emissions by 2050.While the pathway to net zero in industrial sectors will differ based on unique sectoral and regional factors,a blend of electrification(clean power),clean hydrogen and fossil fuels abated by carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS)form the basis of industrial d
23、ecarbonisation across most sectors.However,a robust enabling environment is necessary to allow them to achieve their respective decarbonization objectives.To help in this,the Net-Zero Industry Tracker applies a standardized conceptual framework,including emission drivers and enablers,that not only p
24、rovides a collective measure of progress and gaps but also highlights opportunities for cross-sector collaboration.The analysis shows that emission-intensive sectors are not aligned with the trajectory to reach net zero by 2050 as determined by the International Energy Agency(IEA)and industry specif
25、ic scenarios and targets.Over the past three years,absolute emissions have grown on average by 8%due to increased activity and demand and all sectors in scope depend on fossil fuels,most with over 90%reliance.Sectors such as cement and steel are facing the most complex decarbonization challenges due
26、 to their energy intensity.In fact,their use of energy is equivalent to more than 3 times that of the energy consumed in the US.Transitioning these industries to a net-zero future will require a collective investment of approximately$13.5 trillion,prioritizing the electrification of low to medium te
27、mperature industrial processes.That is whats needed to scale up the essential technologiesand sustainable infrastructure,but investments arent enough.They must be complemented by policies and incentives that can help the industries make the switch while ensuring access to affordable and reliable res
28、ources that are critical for economic growth.The tracker reveals an encouraging,though variable,increase in awareness and action among industries towards achieving net-zero emissions.Yet,there is still tremendous opportunity for sectors to come together to drive innovation and address their challeng
29、es collaboratively through sharing knowledge and best practices,joint innovation,market access and consumer trust,risk mitigation and resiliency planning.DefinitionsBOX 1Clean power:A combination of solar,off-shore wind,on-shore wind,nuclear and geothermal energy used to electrify thermal processes
30、in production and as an alternative propulsion source in transport sectors.Clean hydrogen:Considers both blue hydrogen(produced with natural gas abated by CCUS)and green hydrogen(produced through electrolysis).Though the preference in most cases is towards green hydrogen.Green premium:Additional pro
31、ducts/fuel costs passed to businesses and end consumers,associated with adoption of low-emission technologies.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition4 Five key takeaways from the 2023 trackerTABLE 1TechnologyThe use of low-emission technologies is growing at a gradual pace;rapid acceleration is neede
32、d to support commercial deployment by 2030.The readiness and adoption of low-emission technology remains low across most sectors.Aluminium and trucking are two sectors showing early promise.Prioritizing material circularity,recycling and transition fuels can help industries bridge the gap until tech
33、nologies become available.InfrastructureFinancing needs for low-emission technologies are significant yet overshadowed by larger infrastructure investments.Industries are largely reliant on clean hydrogen,CCUS and electrification including recharging infrastructure for transport sectors.While local
34、characteristics like clean power and storage site proximity will drive early technology adoption,shared infrastructure hubs are vital to accelerated decarbonization and improved access in remote locations.DemandStandardized definitions and thresholds for low-emission products are gaining consensus,e
35、ssential for encouraging first movers.Early market demand signals are emerging in most sectors.Over the last year,some production sectors have witnessed an increase in low-carbon alternatives.Yet challenges like reporting standards,supply chain instability and transparency gaps persist.In some insta
36、nces,business to business(B2B)green premiums reaching up to 400%,are largely untested at scale.End-product consumers generally experience relatively modest green premiums,typically 2-5%.PolicyThe evolving policy landscape,driven by significant industrial policy initiatives in select countries,is bol
37、stering investment in low-emission technologies and infrastructure.However,this shift may risk concentrating industrial activity in developed nations,necessitating multilateral cooperation to aid major producing regions.Global alignment on emissions reduction requirements is needed,with policies cus
38、tomized to suit individual country needs.Additionally,enhancing market transparency necessitates policy measures to increase emission intensity visibility.CapitalSectors need additional investments of approximately$11 trillion to fund adoption of clean energy technologies and retrofit legacy assets,
39、however most industries lack strong business cases.Such a shift in capital flows should be supported by market stabilizing policies to enhance investment attractiveness and companies embedding long-term decarbonization solutions into their strategies to targeting growth through sustainable value cre
40、ation.Capital is also needed to improve emission efficiencies for processes that cannot be fully electrified.In conclusion,decarbonizing emission-intensive industries across production,energy and transport sectors requires a multi-faceted approach.Aligning the essential components of demand for sust
41、ainable products,policy incentives,capital for technology investments and infrastructure expansion is the key to accelerating progress.Positive signals are currently emerging,but much more needs to be done.Recognizing a new and evolving geopolitical context,a new equilibrium needs to be found on how
42、 collaboration across countries needs to happen to support this transition that should preserve the conditions for every living being and also create wealth.The 2023 tracker report recognizes that,despite the challenges,the global industrial community is making progress towards achieving net-zero em
43、issions.By pulling the enabling levers and encouraging innovative collaborations,industries can pave the way for a greener,more resilient and prosperous future.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition5The Net-Zero Industry Tracker offers a data-driven framework to assess and comprehend the progress of
44、 decarbonization across emissions-intensive industry sectors.Its key objectives include supporting the global endeavour of industry net-zero transformation by providing stakeholders with a detailed framework and methodology to comprehend the driving forces behind industry emissions and the facilitat
45、ors of net-zero transformation.Additionally,it provides both quantitative and qualitative scorecards to continually monitor industry advancements towards the net-zero goal.Moreover,it identifies priority areas for industries to focus on,promoting actions that accelerate their progress in the journey
46、 towards sustainability.The underlying framework combines two complementary lenses to track industries progress on the ground performance and readiness.This year,to increase the overall volume of emissions being tracked,three transport sectors have been included.Consequently,the 2023 iteration of th
47、e framework for production and energy sectors remains the same,whereby the field of analysis covers scope 1 and 2 emissions.However,an adapted version has been developed to account for variance in reporting requirements for the newly incorporated transport sectors,which will account for greenhouse g
48、as(GHG)emissions in the fuel supply and operational value chains(well-to-wake emissions)against 2050 targets.DefinitionsBOX 2“Low-emission”production is defined quantitatively for each industry in terms of product emission intensity(scope 1 and 2).Targets refer to 2030 and 2050 emission intensity th
49、resholds based on sector net-zero trajectories used for the analysis.These are proposed trajectories based on analysis of data from the International Energy Agency(IEA)Net Zero by 2050,Global Cement and Concrete Association(GCCA)Concrete Future,International Air Transport Association(IATA)Net Zero R
50、oadmaps,International Aluminium Institute(IAI)GHG Pathways,International Council on Clean Transportation(ICCT)Vision 2050 and International Maritime Organization(IMO)GHG Strategy.Business as usual(BAU)trajectories have also been considered based on the IEA Stated Policies Scenario and Mission Possib
51、le Partnership(MPP)sector trajectories.These trajectories are for this analysis only and not a final recommendation for the industries.IntroductionNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition6Net-zero industry performanceThe four drivers of industry net GHG emissions:Net GHGemissionsProductionWhat is prod
52、uced:Industry production volume and mixTransportWhat is being transported:Industry transport work,volume and mixProductionHow is it produced:Production process emission and energy intensityTransportHow it is transported:Emission and energy intensity,transport work by processProductionWhat it contrib
53、utes to:Scope 3 emissions and offsetsTransportWhat it contributes to:Value chain emissions and offsetsProductionWhat energy is used:Types of energy sources consumedTransportWhat fuel is used:Types of fuel sources consumedTechnology to decarbonize production processesNet-zero transformation enablersT
54、echnologyPoliciesDemandCapitalInfrastructureNet-zero industry readinessThe five enabling dimensions of industry net-zero transformation:Capital to transform industry asset baseInfrastructure to enable low-emission productionPolicies to support low-emission business modelsDemand to buy low-emission p
55、roducts at a premium priceEach of the enablers is assessed against five stages of readiness,with the assessment criteria outlined in Appendix A2:Mission and methodology.Net-Zero Industry Tracker framework performanceNet-Zero Industry Tracker framework readinessFIGURE 1FIGURE 2Net-Zero Industry Track
56、er 2023 Edition7Scoring matrix for transformation enablersTABLE 2Key readiness questionsTechnologyIs the technology to produce a low-emission product at competitive cost available?InfrastructureIs the infrastructure to enable use of low-emission technologies available?DemandCan the market pay the re
57、quired green premium for the low-emission product?Policies Are the supporting policies to enable the growth of low-emission industry in place?CapitalAre returns sufficient to drive investments towards low-emission assets?StageThe low-emission production technologies are fully available and competiti
58、ve with high-emission alternatives.The necessary infrastructure required by the low-emission industry is fully in place.The whole market can pay the required green premium.Policies fully complement current environment(technology,infrastructure,demand,capital),to support growth of the low-emission in
59、dustry.Low-emission investments generate sufficient return for all capital expenditure(CapEx)to flow towards low-emission production assets.StageThe low-emission production technologies are largely commercial and competitive with high-emission alternatives.The necessary infrastructure required by th
60、e low-emission industry is largely in place.Most of the market can pay the required green premium.Policies strongly complement current environment(technology,infrastructure,demand,capital),to support growth of the low-emission industry.Low-emission investments generate sufficient return for most Cap
61、Ex to flow towards low-emission production assets.StageThe low-emission production technologies are largely demonstrated in commercial conditions.The necessary infrastructure required by the low-emission industry is partially in place.Some of the market can pay the required green premium.Policies mo
62、derately complement current environment(technology,infrastructure,demand,capital),to support growth of the low-emission industry.Low-emission investments generate sufficient return for some of CapEx to flow towards low-emission production assets.StageThe low-emission production technologies are larg
63、ely prototyped at scale.The necessary infrastructure required by the low-emission industry is emerging.A limited portion of the market can pay the required green premium.Limited policies complement current environment(technology,infrastructure,demand,capital),to support growth of the low-emission in
64、dustry.Low-emission investments generate sufficient return for a minority of CapEx to flow towards low-emission production assets.StageThe low-emission production technologies are largely at concept or early prototype stage.The necessary infrastructure required by the low-emission industry needs to
65、be developed almost entirely.Only very early adopters in the market can pay the required green premium.Very limited policies complement current environment(technology,infrastructure,demand,capital),to support growth of the low-emission industry.Low-emission investments generate sufficient return for
66、 barely any CapEx to flow towards low-emission production assets.54321Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition8Cross industry findings1Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition9Oil and gasSteelCementAluminiumAmmoniaAviationShippingTruckingOther transportOther industriesBuildingsElectricityThe tracker rep
67、resents:40%of global GHG emissions85%of manufacturing emissions,56%of transport emissions15%8%6%2%3%2%4%7%18%7%27%1%Industrial sectors,across production and energy,contribute over 30%of global GHG emissions,increasing to over 40%when combined with transport(see Figure 3).Currently,none of these sect
68、ors are on course to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.Progress,in terms of emissions reduction and sector readiness has been limited in most regions over the past year.Decarbonizing these emissions-intensive sectors is primarily dependent on removing the reliance on fossil fuels as the primary ene
69、rgy source and switching to renewable alternatives such as clean power and clean hydrogen,as well as efficiency improvements and abating emissions from any remaining fossil fuels.Low-emission products,fuels and technologies hold less than 1%market share in most sectors.This is because they are curre
70、ntly costly or hard to scale and many sectors prioritize near-term emission reduction solutions,while theres insufficient regulation,standards and consumer awareness about alternative products and their emission-cutting potential.Positive advancements are underway in regions such as the US and the E
71、U,where low-emission technologies are projected to gain traction by 2030.It is crucial to implement a customized blend of incentive-driven and mandate-based policies,considering the economic conditions of developing nations.Global companies need to take more substantial actions to expedite the trans
72、ition.Global GHG emissions by sectorFIGURE 3Source:Breakthrough Energy,The Data,Sectoral Analysis,n.d.,https:/breakthroughenergy.org/our-approach/the-data/sectoral-analysis/;IEA,Net Zero by 2050,2021.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition10As population growth,urbanization and economic expansion dri
73、ve increased demand across all sectors,the carbon-intensive nature of these industries poses a formidable challenge to 1.5oC aligned climate goals.Prioritizing proactive decarbonization,coupled with the creation of employment and wealth,is imperative.However,adopting reactive measures risks higher c
74、osts,diminished competitiveness and a failure to meet emissions reduction targets.Industries need to de-couple emissions from demand by embracing innovative technologies,optimizing supply chains,transitioning to cleaner energy sources,encouraging policy collaboration and raising consumer awareness.E
75、nergy efficiency and energy savings can often be a quick way to achieve some reductions in emissions and energy consumption.However,there needs to be a complementary tool for developing and scaling technologies that can deliver deeper emissions cuts.Ultimately,in a 1.5oC aligned scenario,demand redu
76、ction through efficiency improvements,product diversification and substitution with low-emission alternatives will be needed.20212022Net-zero scenarioBAU scenarioOil and gas(mboe/d*)0204060800180+5%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,5006,000Steel(million to
77、nnes(MT)1,9501,8782,5471,509Cement(MT)4,4004,1006,1004,032Aluminium(MT)95103171150Ammonia(MT)87,000+36%+49%+66%+37%Trucking(billion tonne kilometres)256060007080900+140%62515+317%Aviation(trillion RPK*)Shipping(billion cargo tonne miles)5911594+95%Demand increase fro
78、m 2021 to 2050 under IEA stated policy and IEA net zero by 2050 scenariosFIGURE 4Source:IEA stated policy scenario and IEA net-zero scenario*Thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day;*Revenue passenger kilometreNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition11Fossil fuels comprise more than 90%of the curren
79、t energy mix,for sectors in scope.As such,the volume of absolute emissions increases alongside accelerating global demand.Absolute emissions increased by 8%between 2019 and 2022 across most sectors in scope.Though production and transport demand decreases are evident in the data through the course o
80、f the pandemic.Most sectors have recovered to or surpassed pre-pandemic demand levels,leading to a subsequent increase in emissions,emphasizing the need to dissociate emissions with demand growth and reduce energy intensity by substituting fossil fuels with renewables,new energy sources and increasi
81、ng efficiency.Emissions intensities have shown little reduction over the same time period,suggesting that all sectors require large-scale process and technology improvements.It is crucial to recognize that efficiency improvements that are important to reduce emissions may reach a plateau due to inhe
82、rent process limitations.Therefore,fossil fuel substitution is equally key to reducing emissions intensities in line with 1.5C scenarios.PerformanceKey performance metricsTABLE 3Source:IEA World Energy Outlook 2022*Graph shows movement and trends across sectors,rather than direct unit by unit compar
83、ison;*Aviation emission intensity and emissions intensity growth excluded due to extreme outliers across COVID-19 pandemic period;*Shipping figures from The Fourth IMO GHG study 2020,are based on 2018 data therefore excluded from this assessment;*Historic absolute emissions data unavailable;*Data av
84、ailable from 2019-2021;*Emissions intensity trend not available.Sector Absolute emissions growth*(2019-2022)(trend)Absolute emissions growth (2019-2022)(%)Emissions intensity growth (2019-2022)(trend)Emissions intensity growth(2019-2022)(%)Aviation*-31Shipping*Trucking2-13.7Steel*-3.4Cement-0.30Alum
85、inium*4-2.9Ammonia30Oil and gas*-4Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition12DefinitionsBOX 3Absolute emissions are the total GHG emissions released from a specific source,measured in gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent(gtCO2e).Industrial production,oil and gas are assessed by scope 1 and 2 emissions.Transpor
86、t sectors assessed by well to wake emissions.Emissions intensity refers to the measure of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of activity or output measured in:Industrial production:Tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of output(tCO2e/t)Oil and gas:Kilograms of CO2 equivalent per barrel of oil equivalen
87、t(kgCO2e/boe)Aviation:Grams of CO2 equivalent per revenue passenger kilometre(gCO2e/RPK)Shipping:Grams of CO2 equivalent per tonne nautical mile(gCO2e/t-nm)Trucking:Grams of CO2 equivalent per tonne mile(gCO2e/tnm)The absence of precise sector-specific definitions for scientifically quantifying thre
88、sholds is a prevailing issue.Yet,the significance of establishing these benchmarks cannot be overstated,given that the predominant focus of current endeavours remains centred on high-emission trajectories.Currently,around 7%of production meets the existing thresholds of reduced emission production,d
89、efined as a percentage of production aligned with 2030 targets.Similarly,less than 1%meets low-emission thresholds,defined as the percentage of production aligned to 2050 thresholds.The trends over the last four years suggest that none of the sectors are on track to meet 2030 targets,and a significa
90、nt acceleration of efficiency measures and low-emission technology adoption is needed.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition132023 industry enablers scores(arrows depict overall change across industries compared to 2022 scores)TABLE 4Reaching net zero by 2050 across industrial sectors is dependent o
91、n advancements in five key areas:technology,infrastructure,demand,policy and capital.This requires strategic actions to bolster technology,upgrade infrastructure,stimulate sustainable and low-intensity energy demand,develop effective policies,and secure the necessary capital investments.Achieving th
92、ese objectives mandates a pragmatic and coordinated approach to promote sustainable growth and innovation.ReadinessSectorTechnologyInfrastructureDemandPolicyCapitalAviationShippingTruckingSteelCementAluminiumAmmoniaOil and gasReadiness stages:Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4Stage 5Net-Zero Industry Trac
93、ker 2023 Edition14The technology landscape remains very similar to last year,with most technologies currently under development expected to reach commercial readiness by 2030.The transformation of emissions-intensive industrial and transport industries,where changes take a long time to incubate,heav
94、ily relies on technological innovation,active investments and industrial coordination and collaboration to share and replicate learnings.These sectors encounter distinct challenges,often centred around the imperative to reduce technology costs through strategies such as scaling up production,process
95、 optimization and deriving insights from initial deployments.In some instances,genuine technological revolutions are indispensable,as evidenced in sectors like aviation and cement production.As such,three net-zero technologies warrant prioritization for accelerated development:1.Increase clean power
96、-based technology adoption across all sectors:Clean power is expected to comprise up to 65%of the final energy mix by 2050 and is the least complex method of driving emissions reductions.2.Commercial scaling of carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS)technology,particularly for cement:With a lac
97、k of viable alternatives for net-zero cement,research and development(R&D),investment and additional projects are needed to improve applications for small and remote facilities and accelerate commercial scaling within this decade.3.Accelerated development of green hydrogen technology:Access to green
98、 and blue hydrogen is an important decarbonization solution for several sectors.Despite positive developments in blue hydrogen,it is particularly important to significantly reduce costs and increase supply of green hydrogen to decarbonize and reduce fossil fuel dependence.Furthermore,sector transiti
99、on extends beyond the advancement of operational technologies;it equally emphasizes the critical necessity of integrating these innovations with established business systems.To expedite progress towards achieving net-zero emissions,it becomes imperative to prioritize the acceleration of technology r
100、eadiness levels(TRLs).This goal can be realized through collaborative industry efforts and the development of new cross-industry partnerships.TechnologyToday20252030DRI-EAF*with carbon captureSteelCarbon capture for cement kilnsCementInert anodesHydrogen furnacesAluminiumBiobased SAF*AviationCombina
101、tion of technologies required(see oil and gas technology page)Oil and gasBlue hydrogenAmmoniaBattery electric trucks(BETs)TruckingMethanolAmmoniaShippingYear by which industries could commercially deploy technologies enabling them to reach their 2050 low-emission intensity thresholdFIGURE 5of the 20
102、50 energy mix is expected to be clean power65%*Direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace *Sustainable aviation fuelsSource:Accenture analysis based on multiple sources,including IEA and MPPNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition15Clean power,clean hydrogen and fossil fuels abated by CCUS will need to
103、account for over 90%of the final energy mix for net zero by 2050 with applications across all sectors in scope,totalling around$13.5 trillion in investments(see Figure 7).Accelerating clean power generation and energy storage is crucial.The shift towards clean power sources requires significant chan
104、ges in electricity procurement and markets,placing a growing emphasis on renewable energy procurement strategies,such as access to and coordination of a diverse set of industry players to include solar,nuclear and hydropower.A clean hydrogen economy is vital for industries like cement,steel and ammo
105、nia,while sectors like shipping and aviation are exploring hydrogen-derived fuels.Carbon capture capacity may need to increase by 120-125 times by 2050;however,inconsistent CCUS revenue models must be addressed.With less than 1%of the required infrastructure currently in place,the risk of cross-indu
106、stry competition for limited resources grows as demand for low-emission products and transport rises towards 2050.To tackle this,promoting shared infrastructure models like infrastructure hubs and industrial clusters can boost access to development,encouraging more equal sector growth and creating a
107、dvantages of scale.Industries should partner with infrastructure and energy providers to develop new contracts and complementary operational models.Bi-directional partnerships between two or more industries hold the potential to drive low-emission product demand through market opportunities and indu
108、strial applications.InfrastructureClean powerClean hydrogenBiofuelsOtherCO2 transport and storage05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500$,billionsSteel1,620890130Cement24060Aluminium49090120Aviation1,14026090Ammonia2,570 50Trucking1,3206501,350Shipping1,92018020Oil3040100Gas40100Total infrastructure inve
109、stments by industry and by enabler by 2050FIGURE 6Source:Accenture analysis based on multiple sources,including IEA,IRENA,Global CCS Institute and GMFNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition16Clean powerClean hydrogenBiofuelsOtherCO2 transport and storage37%5%45%11%2%Total investments required=approxi
110、mately$13.5 trillionTotal investments required by 2050 by enablerSource:Accenture analysis based on data from organizations including;Global Cement and Concrete Association,International Air Transport Association,International Energy Agency Net Zero by 2050 report and World Economic Outlook.FIGURE 7
111、Early market demand signals are emerging in most sectors,supported by developing policies and an increase in offtake agreements and green subsidies.Initiatives such as the First Movers Coalition(FMC)have contributed to creating a stronger demand signal for innovative,clean technologies in industrial
112、 sectors.Many production sectors have seen an increase in low-carbon alternatives over the last year.However,a lack of reporting standards,supply chain stability and transparency are consistent challenges across most sectors,with associated green premiums largely untested at the commercial scale.The
113、 current industry dilemma regarding whether to stimulate demand or supply requires immediate attention and resolution.Industry leaders and consortia share a unanimous commitment to developing net-zero pathways,though the absence of reliable customer revenue signals both in terms of price and volume
114、limit execution.This uncertainty poses challenges for businesses looking to invest in and pursue potentially transformative but uncertain opportunities.Industries need to collaborate across the value chain to create transparency around applications of clean technologies,clarify infrastructure demand
115、 requirements and prioritize accordingly,reducing the energy intensity of process activities.Across various sectors,several key prerequisites have emerged as essential for creating demand for low-emission products and raising consumer awareness of product and service carbon attributes.These prerequi
116、sites include:1.A standardized framework for low-emission products2.A simple-to-deploy emissions intensity calculator3.An auditable carbon footprint assessment process.Notably,the aviation sector has made progress in promoting transparency through the use of carbon footprint calculators.Similarly,th
117、e construction sector has taken steps to certify green products,especially in the context of low-emission buildings,although it has historically excluded primary materials from these certifications.While these sectors serve as commendable examples,it is imperative for other industries to follow suit
118、 and adopt similar measures.Demand The industry dilemma regarding whether to stimulate demand or supply requires immediate attention and resolution.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition200250300350%Steel57Cement80Aluminium38Aviation350Ammonia80Trucking142Shipping50Oil10Gas7Average busine
119、ss to business(B2B)green premium by current estimates FIGURE 8051015202530%0.5Steel3Cement0.5Aluminium15Aviation30Ammonia2Trucking2Shipping6Oil3GasAverage business to consumer(B2C)green premium by current estimatesFIGURE 9Source:Accenture analysis based on multiple sources,including MPP,ETC,Bloomber
120、g and IEASource:Accenture analysis based on multiple sources,including MPP,ETC,Bloomberg and IEANet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition18Policy plays a pivotal role in sectoral decarbonization,serving dual objectives:advancing climate goals and bolstering demand and economic resilience.It must also n
121、avigate the delicate equilibrium between domestic economic growth and the expenses tied to supply chain onshoring.Major producing countries/regions such as China,India,the US and the EU have now committed to net-zero targets,making it imperative for businesses within their jurisdictions to align the
122、ir operations and strategies with the evolving regulatory landscape.However,complex and ever-changing policy regimes result in businesses allocating substantial resources towards compliance,impeding progress.Establishing more consistent and stable regulatory frameworks with well-defined timelines is
123、 imperative for mitigating these risks.Emerging signals indicate a range of cross-sectoral policy systems being tested worldwide:Currently,20%of countries have implemented various forms of carbon pricing to incentivize a shift away from emission-intensive production routes.1 Additionally,import cont
124、rol programmes,like the EUs Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),complement these measures.In countries like China and India,national-level action plans and roadmaps for clean hydrogen have been adopted to encourage investments across the hydrogen value chain that aid large-scale industrial tran
125、sformation.Also,the G20 member countries have agreed to guiding principles that enable the production,consumption and global trade of clean hydrogen.Several countries have introduced policies to enable CCUS technology and infrastructure developments.These include carbon capture and storage(CCS)inves
126、tment tax credits in Canada,the EUs Innovation Fund for CCS projects,and Japans commitment to develop a CCS-specific regulatory framework.Comprehensive policy packages like US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act(IIJA)and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act(IRA)that provide fiscal stimulus to m
127、ultiple areas of industrial decarbonization have also been deployed.While the above policies address the supply side,demand side measures such as green public procurement(GPP)are advancing,with Clean Energy Ministerials Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative(IDDI)driving global GPP commitments i
128、n heavy industries.While these policy systems show promise,its important to note that their applicability varies across different sectors,particularly in addressing emissions-intensive sectors across industry,energy and transport.Each sector demands specific,well-defined policies and regulations tha
129、t align with evolving consumer revenue models.Furthermore,there is an urgent need for effective cross-regional policies that bridge the current disparities among regions,which are impeding global CO2 emissions reduction efforts.Policyof countries have carbon pricing mechanisms20%Net-Zero Industry Tr
130、acker 2023 Edition19An additional$11 trillion is required by industries to retrofit existing assets with clean technologies and order a new zero-emission fleet outside the BAU asset renewal cycle.For some industries,like cement,this means attracting almost double their annual CapEx to invest in clea
131、n technologies.However,the current market landscape lacks sufficient incentives to invest in low-emission technologies and poses a risk to early investors across most sectors.Industry collaboration is imperative to reduce costs,accelerate learning curves and establish market stability to incentivize
132、 greater investment in decarbonization efforts.Industrial decarbonization requires the pooling of collective knowledge and resources across sectors;both start-ups and incumbents have a role to play.Collaboration allows for the efficient exchange of expertise and assets,leading to the development of
133、more economically viable decarbonization technologies.This cooperative approach not only alleviates the financial burden on individual sectors but also creates market predictability.A stable and predictable market environment is paramount in attracting increased investments in decarbonization initia
134、tives and cultivating stakeholder confidence.Redirecting capital for industry transformation requires strategic policy interventions,including carbon pricing,technology subsidies,public procurement and a strong business case.Institutional investors and multilateral banks can play a crucial role by p
135、roviding access to low-cost capital linked to emissions targets.However,adapting financial models to align with the specific needs of various industries and regions is equally vital to mobilizing the necessary capital.Many companies have demonstrated their commitment to reducing emissions by integra
136、ting emission considerations into their decision-making processes.Some companies exhibit a more comprehensive approach,providing detailed emissions reporting and clear emission reduction targets.However,a significant portion of companies lag behind,limited to basic emission reporting and reduction t
137、argets,particularly in developing countries.Current industry profit margins indicate that many industries are ill-prepared to absorb additional costs while generating sufficient returns.To improve access to capital and generate sustainable returns,improved transparency surrounding low-emission and l
138、ow-carbon alternatives is needed.Strengthening demand signals,particularly for new technology applications,is key.Collaborative infrastructure development across regions can play a pivotal role in mitigating early investor risk,reducing CapEx requirements for individual sectors,and ultimately leadin
139、g to more substantial and sustainable returns on investment.Capital00500600700BAU CapExAdditional CapEx required9617Steel4230Cement207Aluminium78185Aviation2336Ammonia1878Trucking3617Shipping69032Oil and gasEstimated annual CapEx vs BAU annual CapEx($,billion)Source:Accenture analysis bas
140、ed on multiple sources to include IEA,EMSA,MPP and IATAFIGURE 10 To improve access to capital and generate sustainable returns,improved transparency surrounding low-emission and low-carbon alternatives is needed.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition20 Embed measurable net zero targets and pathways
141、into their long-term strategies.Invest in R&D and deployment to accelerate the learning curve for lagging low-emission technologies.Enhance access to infrastructure and implement decarbonisation solutions within this decade.Support regulations and standards and clarifying net zero and transition tec
142、hnologies to improve transparency for producers,investors and end-consumers Collaborate across sectors for improved infrastructure access and faster development.Increase the number of offtake agreements by 2030 to stimulate early low-emission technology demand.Implement nationally tailored incentive
143、 and mandate-based policies,such as tax subsidies and emissions caps to stimulate demand for low-emission technologies,especially in developing regions.Policy measures need to be tailored to national circumstances and fiscal capabilities.Implement carbon pricing in all major production regions and m
144、ain transport hubs.Increase green public procurement and public/private partnerships to provide early demand signals for low-carbon products and mitigate early investor risks.For industry:For policy-makers:For companies:123123123Decarbonizing industrial sectors requires collective collaboration amon
145、g policy-makers,industry consortia and companies.Actions to support net zero industrial transformationFIGURE 11Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition212%0.98gtCO2e-25%Contribution to global GHG emissions Operational and fuel supply chain emissionsEmissions growth (2019-2022)99%83gCO2e2-5timesFossil
146、fuels in the fuel mix(2022)Emissions intensity emitted per passenger km(2020)Expected demand increase by 2050Aviation industry net-zero tracker2SAF are considered key to decarbonizing aviation,but current commercial limitations mean that SAF only provides around 40%emissions reduction.Key emissions
147、data2,3,4,5Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition22 Net-zero emissions by 2050.9 73%10 of large publicly traded aviation companies consider climate change in their decision-making processes.Aviation emissions can be divided into two main categories:1.Well-to-tank mainly upstream emissions from produ
148、ction and distribution of fossil fuels2.Tank-to-wake primarily due to combustion of fossil fuels,predominantly jet fuel,used during flight operations.Sector prioritiesReadiness key takeawaysStated energy transition goalsEmission focus areas for trackerTechnologyTwo leading decarbonization pathways h
149、ave emerged:mature SAF and less mature novel propulsion technologies.However,the most advanced pathway is 2-5 times higher cost than traditional jet fuel.6 Infrastructure$2.4 trillion7 in infrastructure investment is required to support the development and scaling of aviation technology by 2050.Dema
150、ndAlthough SAF adoption was less than 1%8 of flights in 2022,there is a growing shift towards sustainable business models and agreements supporting its use.PolicyCurrent policies primarily target developed countries,but further policy advancements are needed,like tax subsidies,direct funding and add
151、itional fuel standards,to incentivize biofuels infrastructure.CapitalThe industry needs approximately$5 trillion by 205011,far exceeding current airline investments.Low-profit margins and a 7%weighted average cost of capital(WACC)make it hard to attract private capital for low-emission assets.12Exis
152、iting transportReduce near-term emissions intensity by:Increasing the number of operational synthetic fuel projects Increasing biofuels refining capacity to support additional commercial scale hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids(HEFA)projects Using efficiency and design improvement opportunities a
153、t an accelerated pace.Next generation transportAccelerate battery electric and hydrogen technology development,to reduce absolute emissions by:Investing in next generation transport R&D and accelerating the learning curve Developing hydrogen storage capacity and refuelling capabilities Investing in
154、clean power infrastructure.Ecosystem De-risk capital investment to scale infrastructure capacity by:Increasing the number of offtake agreements,strengthening market demand signals Accelerating power to liquids(PtL)development,mitigating biofuels supply chain limitations Implementing a blend of polic
155、ies,primarily,tax subsidies,direct funding and additional fuel standards,incentivizing biofuels production.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition23Absolute emissions in gigatonnes of CO2 are impacted by fuel burn,load factors,aircraft type and route operated,among other factors.The most significant
156、emissions reduction,around 65%,is expected between 2030-2040 as SAF becomes more widespread.Further efficiency measures have the potential to enhance fuel efficiency by 30-40%by 2050.13Emissions intensity,measured as CO2 emitted per passenger kilometre,is influenced by aircraft type and routes.In 20
157、22,emissions intensity per passenger kilometre was higher than pre-pandemic levels due to demand being around 80%of 2019 levels.14 Emissions intensity is now decreasing in line with growing demand.However,aviation needs to reduce its emissions intensity to net zero by 2050,with over 70%15 of the red
158、uction expected between 2030 to 2050 as SAF adoption increases alongside increased efficiency measures and offsetting.PerformanceEmissions profileBAU scenarioNet-zero scenario020202030204020500708090100tCO2e/tonne8888888388602050 BAUscenario88 tCO2e/tonne2050 net-zero scenario23 tCO2e/ton
159、neFuel GHG emissions intensity trajectory for aviationFIGURE 12OffsetsBOX 4Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation(CORSIA),mandates offsetting CO2 emissions exceeding pre-pandemic levels(2019)that cannot be reduced by other methods.16 In 2021,roughly 9%of aviation emissions
160、 were eligible for offsets,although precise figures remain uncertain.Although participation is currently voluntary,it is anticipated to increase,alongside associated regulations,as the scheme advances through defined phases.Phase 1 is set to commence in 2024.Source:Accenture Analysis based on ICAO a
161、nd IEA dataNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%41%22%19%10%5%5%2%Fischer-Tropsch(FT)and alcohol-to-jet(AtJ)Efficiency improvementsPtLHydrogenUnabated fossil fuelsBattery electricHEFAThe key decarbonization strategy involves substituting traditional fuels with
162、 SAF to reduce in-flight emissions by 75-95%,coupled with efficiency measures.17 Achieving 85%SAF adoption by 2050 necessitates coordinated efforts from stakeholders,governments and advisory bodies.18 Priorities include promoting low-emission fuels,stimulating SAF demand and advancing sustainable fe
163、edstock R&D.Despite the current dominance of fossil fuels,projections indicate a 65%emissions reduction by 2030-2040 as SAF scales up to 50%of the fuel mix alongside increased efficiency measures,ultimately reaching an 85%reduction by 2050.19 Further reductions by 2050 stem from novel propulsion tec
164、hnology,albeitin smallerproportions.Path forward2020 fuel mixMPP 2050 net-zero scenarioNote:Totals do not add up to 100%as not a fuel mixFIGURE 13FIGURE 140%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Fossil fuelsNon-fossil fuels99.94%0.06%Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition25Two leading decarbonization pathw
165、ays have emerged:SAF and novel propulsion technologies.SAF includes biofuels made through the HEFA,FT and AtJ pathways,as well as synthetic aviation fuels made from captured carbon and green hydrogen electrolysis,called power-to-liquids(PtL).HEFA is the most advanced and is currently available in sm
166、all quantities,though increased commercial availability is expected before 2025.20 Novel propulsion technologies,such as battery-electric and hydrogen,are less mature and anticipated to be commercially ready by 2040.21 Currently,the total cost of ownership(TCO)for HEFA is 2-5 times higher than tradi
167、tional jet fuel,and less than 1%of the global fleet uses low-emission technologies.22 Fuel switching to 100%renewable drop-in fuels has the potential to cut in-flight emissions by 75-95%while matching jet fuels range(up to 15,000km).23 However,with SAF currently limited to a 50%blend rate,emissions
168、reduction potential stands at a maximum of around 40%.24HEFA is the most mature,poised for commercial availability by 2025,while other FT and AtJ projects are mostly in large prototype-demonstration stage,also targeting commercial readiness by 2025.25 However,commercial scalability is limited by the
169、 finite nature of bio-based feedstocks,insufficient refining capacity and increased production costs(up to 5 times jet fuel26).Synthetic fuels,though less mature,are advancing,with commercial availability expected around 2025.27 Despite higher production costs(up to 9 times jet fuel)and lagging clea
170、n hydrogen and direct air capture(DAC)infrastructure development,their synthetic nature addresses feedstock availability challenges.Accelerated R&D and adoption of PtL have the potential to alleviate supply chain challenges in SAF production.Battery-electric aircraft and hydrogen aircraft offer the
171、lowest emission alternatives to jet fuel up to 100%emissions reduction.However,their limited range,prolonged safety approvals,high R&D costs and insufficient availability of clean hydrogen and clean power infrastructure delay widespread adoption until the 2040s.In September 2022,Eviation28 conducted
172、 the first test flight of“The Alice”,the worlds first commercially scalable fully electric aircraft.Commercial operations are set to begin in 2027,with over 50 orders by June 2023 valued at$4 billion,indicating strong market demand and confidence in electric aviation.SAF pathwaysNovel propulsion tec
173、hnologies2TechnologyAVIATION emissions reduction potentialUp to95%Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition26With on-board battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell technology limited at prototype stage,technology provisions for fast charging and refuelling technologies are nascent,in line with their req
174、uired availability.As novel propulsion technologies develop,additional R&D to improve the technical capabilities to match current aviation business models will be needed.Recharging and refuelling technologiesTechnology pathways11Large prototypeDemonstrationEarly adoptionMatureSmall protot
175、ypeConceptHydrogen(2040s)Battery-electric(2040s)PtL(2025)AtJ(2025)FT(2025)HEFA(pre-2025)Estimated TRL and year of availability for key technology pathwaysFIGURE 15Source:Accenture analysis based on multiple sources,including IEA and MPPNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition27The current infrastructu
176、re is inadequate to support the development and scaling of decarbonization pathways,especially regarding SAF production capacity and feedstock availability for SAF.Less than 1%of the required SAF infrastructure currently exists.Its estimated that$2.4 trillion29 in infrastructure investments will be
177、necessary to meet SAF demand by 2050,with$0.9-1.5 trillion within the aviation industrys immediate scope.30 The majority of these investments should focus on developing upstream SAF production infrastructure:31 About 18%of total investments should go towards biofuels refining capacity,resulting in e
178、stablishing approximately 7,000 biorefineries,equivalent to 12 exajoules(EJ)of HEFA and other biofuels by 2050.32 The remaining 73%should be directed towards creating clean hydrogen infrastructure and implementing DAC,equivalent to 95 million tonnes per annum(MTPA)of clean hydrogen and 490 MTPA of c
179、aptured carbon as feedstock for PtL production.33As clean hydrogen and clean power technologies advance,downstream infrastructure requirements are expected to emerge,including clean hydrogen storage,charging stations,electrified ground power and grid connection infrastructure or on-site power genera
180、tion capacity.Industry players are already taking steps in this direction.For instance,in November 2022,Airbus joined HyPort,34 a venture by ENGIE Solutions and AREC,to develop a pioneering clean hydrogen production and distribution station.The facility is set to commence hydrogen production in 2023
181、,capable of powering up to 50 ground vehicles and scalable for future hydrogen aircraft use.2050 investment requirementsFIGURE 162InfrastructureAVIATION Investments requiredPercentage of total investmentsCapacity requiredCO2 transport and storageUp to$90billion6%490MTPAUp to$1.1trillionClean hydroge
182、n production76%95MTPAUp to$260billionBiofuels18%335MTPAClean powergenerationData unavailableData unavailableData unavailableSource:Accenture analysis based on multiple sources including IATA MPP,IEA and Global CCS InstituteNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition28SAF,which represents less than 1%of t
183、he current aviation fuel mix,remains untested in terms of its ability to absorb the green premium due to 2022s market demand being less than 1%.35,36 However,there is a growing shift towards sustainable business models and SAF offtake agreements.By 2030,SAF production is expected to reach approximat
184、ely 17.3 billion litres,driven mainly by North America,Europe and Asia.To meet the 2050 target of around 475 billion litres annually,production capacity needs to increase by 27 times from 2030 to 2050.37 Comparing the TCO to jet fuel use,the adoption of HEFA carries a 300%fuel cost increase,resultin
185、g in a business to business(B2B)green premium of more than 45-60%.38 HEFA carries an average B2C green premium of 3-12%per plane ticket.39 Although passengers and airlines currently cover these higher costs,this market scenario is not sustainable and poses risks for early investors,hindering commerc
186、ial scalability and adoption.Cost reduction is essential to ensure both supply and demand of low-emission technologies.The adoption of SAF technologies will require business model diversification in the upstream aviation fuel value chain.There are eight American Society for Testing and Materials(AST
187、M)certified production pathways,40 however,the diversity of biomass options and blend rates presents challenges in standardization and supply chain stability.Existing business models are relatively simple.However,sourcing a stable feedstock supply for biobased SAF and access to gas markets to source
188、 captured CO2 and clean hydrogen for PtL will require the creation of new markets,contracts,ecosystems and supply chains.These activities add complexity to the market environment.Still,they are necessary to ensure the stability of SAF supply and provide opportunities for smaller industry players to
189、drive innovation in SAF development.There are early signs of growing market demand with industry players adopting measures to boost demand.Airlines like Lufthansa offer optional fare increases to offset carbon,while Air-France KLM imposes mandatory green surcharges.In December 2022,Air France-KLM an
190、d Total Energies41 signed a memorandum of understanding(MoU)for Total Energies to supply 800,000 tonnes of SAF to Air France-KLM over 10 years.Moreover,approximately 42 offtake agreements were announced in 2022,totalling around 22 million litres of SAF.However,regulatory incentives and an increase i
191、n public-private contracts are required to ensure demand growth,alongside these industry efforts.Estimated B2B and B2C green premiumFIGURE 172DemandAVIATION Service providerFuel producerConsumerAirlineEnd consumerPassenger+300-400%per litreof fuelAvg+3-12%per ticketSource:Accenture Analysis,based on
192、 MPP and Accenture dataNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition29Aviations decarbonization will require a mix of policy tools.Current policies have mainly focused on developed countries,but further policy advancements are needed,such as tax subsidies,direct funding and additional fuel standards,to inc
193、entivize biofuels infrastructure.While aviation operates globally,individual countries handle airline registration,and fuel production extends beyond carrier regions.To effectively drive aviation sector decarbonization,international regulations must be complemented by regional policies.Developed eco
194、nomies,notably the US,have taken the lead in implementing policies that address various readiness enablers.42 However,similar policies are scarce in developing economies,and policy coverage needs to expand throughout the 2020s to achieve the projected 2 billion litres of SAF production in Asia by 20
195、30.43Lower carbon aviation fuel(LCAF)is fossil-based jet fuel that is produced with at least 10%fewer emissions compared to the baseline of 89 MJ/kg as defined by CORSIA.While certain SAF alternatives can reach up to 95%,with a minimum threshold of 65%required to qualify for sustainable certificatio
196、n.44 Although CORSIA has certified eight SAF production methods,the availability of diverse biomass options,feedstocks and blend rates presents challenges in establishing consistent standards and regulations.As such,the emissions reduction potential of CORSIA-approved fuels can range from 10%with LC
197、AF to SAF,which has the potential to reduce 95%of emissions.The diversity in SAF production also hampers standardization,regulation and traceability of use across the value chain.To meet ICAO targets,policies should encourage low-emission fuel use and operational efficiency.Key actions include enfor
198、cing fuel standards,streamlining approvals,enhancing R&D policies and considering SAF mandates,Carbon Contracts for Differences(CCfDs),book-and-claim systems like Avelia45 and fiscal incentives.3PolicyAVIATION Policies are scarce in developing economies and need to expand to achieve the projected SA
199、F production targets.EnablerPolicy typePolicy instrumentsKey examplesImpactTechnologyMarket-basedCarbon pricing EU-Emission Trading Scheme(ETS)47Incentivizes emission reduction among airlines but is constrained by free allowances and reduced carbon prices.Currently limited to intra-EU flights,expand
200、ing to all EU entries in 2024.Emissions cap CORSIA48Projected emission mitigation potential is around 2.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent(gtCO2)by 2035 via offsets.49 Limited to voluntary participation,mandatory offsets from 2027,with increasing emissions reduction as progress continues.Mandate-basedPe
201、rformance standards and certificationProjected to decrease EU aircraft emissions by 66%by 205050Direct taxation Energy Taxation Directive:Fit for 55(proposed)51Incentivizes SAF adoption via taxation of jet fuel.Incentive-basedSubsidies,tax credits US Blenders Tax Credit(BTC)52$1.25-1.75 per gallon t
202、ax credits for SAF producers around 17%higher than other fuels such as biodiesel.53InfrastructureMandate-basedDirect regulation Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation(AFIR)54Mandatory deployment targets for clean power infrastructure to boost development of battery-electric aircraft.Policy summa
203、ry46TABLE 5Existing policy landscapeNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition30The aviation industry faces a$5 trillion63 CapEx requirement for its 2050 net-zero transformation,necessitating an annual investment of approximately$185 billion,2.4 times the current passenger airline investments.64The argu
204、ment in favour of investing in aviation assets with low emissions continues to lack strength.Given the aviation industrys tight profit margins and a weighted average cost of capital(WACC)at 7%,65 the sector isnt ready to assimilate these extra expenses and generate satisfactory returns exclusively f
205、rom internal funds or to allure private investments.Additional investment required to existing investment ratioFIGURE 181CapitalAVIATION Policy summary46(continued)TABLE 5Additional investment to existing multiple2.4$185billion$78billionTransformation investment requiredExisting investmentInfrastruc
206、tureIncentive-basedSubsidies,tax credits Clean fuel production credit55 UK:580 million towards commercialization of SAF plants and fuel testing56 Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)clean power and green hydrogen production tax credits57 Encourages SAF,clean power and hydrogen infrastructure for advancing t
207、echnology in developed economies.DemandMandate-basedFuel standards California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard(CALCFS)58 ReFuelEU Aviation:SAF blending mandate for fuel suppliers at EU airports59Proposed regulation to penalize jet fuel use and boost SAF demand.CapitalIncentive-basedDirect funding Clean Avia
208、tion Joint Undertaking(CAJU)60Public-private partnership that funds technologies that reduce aviation emissions by 20-30%per aircraft.Targets regional/short-medium haul flight technologies;not applicable to long-haul flights.Technical roadmap SAF Grand Challenge61Incentivizes SAF production through$
209、4.3 billion in investments.Projected to reduce 20%of US aviation emissions by 2030.62Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition31According to IATA,actors involved in investing in aviations net-zero transition will require access to different funding and financing mechanisms depending on the maturity of
210、the investment opportunity.This is because the risk is the highest at the R&D stage and decreases as the commercial viability of the solution grows.66 In order to channel funds into revolutionizing the industry,policy measures such as carbon pricing,incentives for technology development and the prom
211、otion of SAF adoption become essential to ensure profitable returns.The pivotal role played by banks and other financial institutions is to grant access to affordable capital aligned with sustainability objectives.Approximately 74%of large publicly traded aviation companies consider climate change a
212、s a key consideration for their strategic assessment and integrate it into their operational decision making.67 Meanwhile,9%of companies are building basic emissions management systems and process capabilities.Finally,12%of companies acknowledge climate change as a business issue.6.1%Level 0:Unaware
213、12.1%Level 1:Aware6.1%Level 2:Buildingcapacity33.3%Level 3:Integrating into operational decision-making42.4%Level 4:Strategicassessment01234Distribution of companies in the airlines sector according to the management of their GHG emissions and of risks and opportunities related to the low-carbon tra
214、nsitionFIGURE 19Source:Transition Pathway Initiative Centre,London School of Economics and Political Science(LSE-TPI Centre).LSE-TPI Centre is not responsible for any of the sectoral summaries in which their data is used.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition32Shipping industry net-zero tracker3Desp
215、ite the rise in emissions,a more ambitious IMO strategy and industry actions towards technology adoption positions shipping on a positive track for a net-zero pathway.2%0.76gtCO2e11.7gtCO2eContribution to global GHG emissions International shipping GHG emissions(2018)Emissions intensity (emitted per
216、 tonne nautical miles,2018)99%2timesFossil fuels in the fuel mix(2021)Expected demand increase by 2050Key emissions data68,69,70,71Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition33 United Nations(UN)specialized agency IMO aims for at least 20%,striving for a 30%reduction in absolute emissions by 2030(vs 2008
217、)and net-zero emissions by or around 2050.74 51%of large publicly traded shipping companies consider climate change in their decision-making processes.75Shipping emissions can be divided into two main categories considering well-to-wake:1.Operational emissions are primarily due to the combustion of
218、fossil fuels during maritime operations.2.Fuel value chain emissions are mainly upstream emissions from the production and distribution of fossil fuels.Sector prioritiesReadiness key takeawaysStated energy transition goalsEmission focus areas for trackerTechnologyTransitioning to clean,hydrogen-base
219、d,zero-emission fuels (ZEF)like methanol and ammonia,could nearly eliminate shipping emissions.However,uptake faces costs and infrastructure challenges.InfrastructureCurrently less than 1%of the necessary infrastructure exists,requiring about$0.4-0.6 trillion investment to support the development an
220、d scaling of shipping technology by 2050.72DemandGrowing demand for low-carbon shipping faces uncertainty as B2B green premium of 30-80%remains mostly untested at scale.73PolicyTo meet IMO targets,policies should encourage low-emission fuels and operational efficiency through measures like carbon pr
221、icing,fuel standards and incentives for infrastructure.CapitalAdopting ZEF propulsion for ships by 2050 requires up to$450 billion investment,76 adding 47%to annual fleet owner costs,which are currently around$36 billion.77Existing transportReduce near-term emissions intensity by:Accelerating design
222、 and efficiency improvements aligned with IMO guidelines Increasing share of fleet capable of running on alternate fuels supported by technology standards Explore feasibility of complementary solutions in the interim(e.g.wind-assisted propulsion).Next generation transportAccelerate clean hydrogen-ba
223、sed fuels development,to reduce absolute emissions by:Investing in next generation fuels and propulsion technology R&D Ramping up the required clean hydrogen-based fuels production capacity Developing the required bunkering capacity,with storage and refuelling infrastructure.Ecosystem De-risk capita
224、l investment to scale infrastructure capacity by:Implementing green corridors in major routes supported by clean hydrogen hubs Bridging the cost gap between ZEFs and conventional fuels through increased number of projects Implementing a blend of policies,primarily carbon pricing and fuel standards.N
225、et-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition34Fuel combustion in maritime operations accounts for over 80%of the total shipping life cycle emissions,primarily due to the current reliance on fossil fuels.78 Bulk carriers,oil tankers and container ships are responsible for 65%of these emissions.79 As per IMO
226、 targets,absolute emissions need to be reduced by at least 20%by 2030 and at least 70%by 2040 compared to 2008.80 As past trends show,shipping emissions continue to exceed the 2008 benchmark.81Shipping emissions intensity varies based on factors such as fossil fuel use,vessel load use,size,speed and
227、 route characteristics.For example,in the case of container ships,the South-East Asia to/from North-East Asia shipping lane has the highest emission intensity among the top 10 trade lanes by activity,35%above the average emission intensity levels.82 To meet the IMO targets,carbon intensity trajector
228、y has been considered(see Figure 20).This trajectory requires a 40%reduction in intensity levels(vs 2008)and near-zero intensity levels in 2050.83 PerformanceEmissions profileBAU scenarioNet-zero scenario02005024681012gCO2e/tnm8.711.011.711.72050 BAUscenario7.3 gCO2e/tnm2050 net-zero scen
229、ario0 gCO2e/tnm10.31.7Emissions intensity trajectory,net-zero vs BAU scenario.Possible net-zero trajectory as per IMO targetsFIGURE 20Meeting the IMO net-zero target by or around 2050 demands substantial collaboration from governments,industry stakeholders and research institutions.The industrys pri
230、mary focus should centre on advancing clean hydrogen-based ZEFs and incentivizing their widespread adoption,to align with Global Maritime Forum(GMF)transition strategy.ZEFs are expected to occupy more than 90%of the 2050 energy mix,facilitating the achievement of net zero.84 While these fuels develo
231、p,biofuels and,to a limited extent,liquified natural gas(LNG)will serve as transition fuels.In addition to fuel-switching,emissions can be further reduced through operational efficiency enhancements and design improvements,which are crucial for meeting the near-term 2030 IMO targets.Path forwardSour
232、ce:Accenture analysis based on IEA and IMO dataNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition350%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Fossil fuelsNon-fossil fuels99%1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Zero-emission fuelsOthers95%5%2021 fuel mix852050 net-zero scenarioFIGURE 21FIGURE 22Source:IMOSource:GMFNet-Zero
233、Industry Tracker 2023 Edition36Switching entirely to clean hydrogen-based ZEFs,such as methanol,ammonia and liquid hydrogen,holds the potential to achieve near-zero well-to-wake shipping emissions.While methanol-fuelled ships are available,they currently rely on natural gas-based feedstock.Commercia
234、l availability of ammonia and liquid hydrogen propulsion technology is expected by 2025.However,transitioning to these fuels may increase total ownership costs by 30-80%.86 Key barriers to their adoption include higher vessel ownership costs,limitations in the fuel supply chain,the absence of global
235、 bunkering infrastructure,and the need for modifications in onboard storage configurations.The TRL of ZEFs can be considered in terms of the maturity of the fuel production process,the maturity of propulsion technologies and the readiness of bunkering technologies.Globally,there are over 200 R&D pro
236、jects dedicated to advancing these fuels and related technologies.87 Currently,ammonia,methanol and hydrogen are derived from natural gas feedstocks.Clean hydrogen-based production for shipping applications is currently limited to demonstration projects.In addition to clean hydrogen,methanol product
237、ion will require CO2,which can be sourced from industrial point sources or via DAC technologies.Clean hydrogen production facilities and carbon capture technologies need to be sufficiently scaled at an industrial level to advance the production of ZEFs.An example of progress is Danish energy company
238、 Orsteds construction of Europes largest clean methanol plant in North Sweden,set to commence operations by 2025.It is expected to supply 50,000 tonnes of clean methanol annually.88Methanol engines have been successfully demonstrated and are in the early adoption stage of development.Currently,there
239、 are around 30 vessels running on methanol.89 In 2023,Maersk will start operating the worlds first container ship powered by clean methanol,with further ships in the order book.90 Ammonia and liquid hydrogen engines are still in development and are expected to mature after 2025.91 Production technol
240、ogiesPropulsion technologies3TechnologySHIPPINGincrease in total ownership costs expectedUp to 80%Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition37Technology pathways9411Large prototypeDemonstrationEarly adoptionMatureSmall prototypeConceptAmmonia(2025)Hydrogen(2025)Methanol(available)Biofuels(ava
241、ilable)LNG(available)Estimated TRL and year of availability for key technology pathways FIGURE 23Note:The TRL scale here refers to technology readiness of propulsion technologies only.Source:DNVMethanol bunkering and onboard storage/handling technologies have been successfully demonstrated.For ammon
242、ia and liquid hydrogen,these technologies need to be progressed beyond the prototype stage.92Additional decarbonization pathways are essential to ensure that the shipping industry meets the near-term IMO targets for 2030.Transition fuels,such as biofuels,can be considered as potential options.Moreov
243、er,achieving decarbonization in shipping necessitates improvements in operational and technical efficiency.For instance,optimizing routes and enhancing vessel use can result in emission reductions of up to 10%.93 Additionally,innovative systems,such as wind-assisted propulsion,are under investigatio
244、n to further contribute to emissions reduction.Bunkering and onboard storage technologiesOther intermediate measuresNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition38Adopting ZEFs hinges on scaling clean hydrogen,CO2 handling and bunkering infrastructure,however less than 1%currently exists.95 Investments of
245、up to$0.8-2.1 trillion will be needed by 2050,96 mainly for clean hydrogen-based fuel infrastructure.To meet the 2050 net-zero scenario,clean hydrogen production capacity of 160 MTPA is required,97 necessitating an investment of$0.6-1.9 trillion.By 2050,up to 130 MTPA of CO2 will be needed as a feed
246、stock for producing ZEFs.98 If the CO2 is sourced from industrial point sources not co-located with the ZEF producing facility,adequate CO2 transport infrastructure must be established.This is projected to require investments in the range of$10-23 billion.99ZEFs need to be supported by bunkering inf
247、rastructure,which will require an additional$132-176 billion in investment.100 Notable efforts include Yara International and Azane Fuel Solutions partnering to create a“zero-emission”ammonia fuel bunker network in Scandinavia,backed by around$9 million in public funding.This network will supply“zer
248、o-emission”ammonia to ships as early as 2024,expediting fuel adoption.101 Also,Clean Energy Marine Hubs,a public-private platform between energy,maritime,shipping and finance stakeholders,has been recently launched to de-risk investment into the necessary ZEF infrastructure and accelerate pace of de
249、ployment.1022050 investment requirementsFIGURE 242InfrastructureSHIPPINGInvestments requiredPercentage of total investmentsCapacity requiredUp to$20billionCO2 transport and storage1%130 MTPAUp to$170billionBunkering8%880MTPAClean hydrogen productionUp to$1.9trillion160 MTPA91%Source:Accenture analys
250、is based on multiple sources to include;GMF,GTZ and Global CCS instituteNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition39Demand for decarbonized shipping services is rising as nations and businesses pursue strict environmental,social and governance(ESG)goals.However,the feasibility of cargo owners absorbing
251、the estimated green premium of 30-80%remains untested on a large scale.103 As an industry working on narrow margins,passing the costs on to cargo owners will be challenging and hence,increased policy interventions may be necessary to reduce the green premium.While the increase in shipping costs is e
252、xpected to have a minor impact on end-consumers,resulting in an approximate 1-2%green premium(see Figure 25),its important to note that shipping costs represent only a small fraction of the final retail price of products.104 Nonetheless,this premium can result in significant absolute cost increases
253、for essential commodities like oil,grains and metals,particularly affecting emerging and developing economies.Estimated B2B and B2C green premiumFIGURE 252DemandSHIPPINGThe ability of shipping companies to pass on or profit from the green premium of decarbonized shipping services depends on the dema
254、nd from industrial or consumer segments and the location.For instance,low-income countries that heavily rely on maritime trade for essential commodities may feel a more significant impact.As the market progresses,regulatory measures could help reduce green premiums and promote the adoption of decarb
255、onized shipping services,thereby driving increased uptake of ZEFs.The adoption of ZEFs may also need business model changes across the upstream shipping value chain.For example,existing ammonia producers should move beyond traditional demand applications and build supply capabilities to support the
256、increasing need for ammonia from shipping.Similarly,shipbuilders will need to develop ships capable of running on ZEFs as part of their product portfolio.Stable and predictable policy frameworks will be required to create these new markets,build sustained demand and reduce the risk of stranded asset
257、s for early movers.With growing customer emphasis on climate considerations,decarbonized shipping is gaining popularity as a viable alternative.Industry leaders are actively promoting their offerings to meet this demand.For instance,Maersk ECO Delivery,using fatty acid methyl ester(FAME)biofuels,pro
258、vides CO2-saving certificates.105 Hapag-Lloyds Ship Green enables“climate-friendly container shipping”to reduce ocean shipment emissions.The FMC shipping members have committed to ZEF targets by 2030,106 with fleet operators pledging 5%of deep-sea shipping and cargo owners committing at least 10%of
259、goods volume via ZEF-powered vessels.107 These commitments across the value chain have the potential to drive global demand for decarbonized shipping.To enhance consistency and comparability of GHG emissions data,the industry should adopt standardized quantification and reporting,exemplified by the
260、introduction of ISO 14083 in March 2023.108 Standardized reporting empowers industry players to strategically target GHG emissions collectively while also creating stricter policies to encourage low-emission fuel adoption,further boosting market demand.The implementation of IMO regulations,Energy Ef
261、ficiency Design Index(EEXI)and Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII)is anticipated to improve vessel performance transparency and further stimulate the demand for decarbonized shipping.Service providerShipping companyCargo ownerRetailer/industrialEnd consumerProduct buyer+30-80%pershipmentAvg+1-2%per prod
262、uctunit Low-income countries that heavily rely on maritime trade may feel more of the green premium impact.Source:Accenture analysis based on DNV and GMF dataNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition40The global shipping industry operates under selected flag states subject to international regulations
263、led by the IMO.These regulations are bolstered by supporting regional policies that regulate ships entering territorial waters.To meet IMO targets,regional policies should incentivize ZEF adoption and improve operational efficiency.Key measures include carbon pricing,fuel standards,green corridors,f
264、iscal incentives for low-emission fuel infrastructure,bunkering standards and performance standards.Policy summaryTABLE 6Existing policy landscape2PolicySHIPPINGEnablerPolicy typePolicy instrumentsKey examplesImpactTechnologyMarket-basedCarbon pricing EU-ETS109 US International Maritime Pollution Ac
265、countability Act:$150 per tonne of CO2 emissions proposed110 IMO economic measure,2023 strategy111$2.2 billion under EU-ETS to fund shipping decarbonization innovation.112 The proposed US carbon pricing is projected to bring in$250 billion in low-emission funding,over the next 10 years.113 Carbon pr
266、icing under IMO is still under discussion and will not be in effect before 2027.Mandate-basedPerformance standards and certification Energy Efficiency Design Index(EEXI)114 Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII)115Mandatory standards that ships must comply with,driving continuous technical and operational
267、improvements.InfrastructureIncentive-basedTaxes and subsidies IRA clean power and green hydrogen production tax credits11650%reduction in green hydrogen production costs that can boost scaling of green hydrogen capacity required for low-emission fuels.117 The feasibility of such subsidy-driven polic
268、ies for developing economies is uncertain.Mandate-basedDirect regulation EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation mandate for major EU ports to provide shore side electricity to vessels118Reduces emissions at ports by providing cleaner electricity as an alternative with a specific timeline for
269、 ports to action upon(by 2030).119DemandIncentive-basedGreen corridors Clydebank Declaration:22 countries as signatories to create six green corridors by 2026120 Green corridor pledges at COP27 between the US,the UK,the Netherlands and Norway121Reduces risks of adopting low-emission fuels by deployi
270、ng at a local scale and mobilizing demand.21 green corridor initiatives announced so far,involving over 100 stakeholders.122 Mandate-basedFuel standards FuelEU Maritime initiative123 US Clean Shipping Act124 IMO technical measure,2023 strategy125Provides predictable pathways for low-emission fuels t
271、hat encourage adoption and drive demand.CapitalIncentive-basedDirect funding Public funding for green shipping projects in India126Funds 30%of costs of new“green”ships.127Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition41In the shipping industry,retrofitting the current fleet and upcoming ships orders with ZE
272、F propulsion technology necessitates an estimated$450 billionin investment by 2050.128 This breaks down to an annual extra cost of$17 billion for fleet owners.129 Given the current annual CapEx for shipping firms,which stands at approximately$36 billion,this represents an added 47%investment load an
273、nually.130 Recent data suggests the business case for zero-emission shipping investment remains weak due to high costs and uncertain returns.Current industry profit margins of around 32%131 and WACC of 8-10%132 suggest the industry is not positioned to absorb additional costs and generate sufficient
274、 returns solely from internal cash flows.133 Fortunately,with the expansion of technology and the realization of economies of scale,it is anticipated that the financial demands for investment will diminish.Additional investment required to existing investment ratioFIGURE 261CapitalSHIPPINGAdditional
275、 investment to existing multiple0.47$17billion$36billionTransformation investment requiredExisting investmentSource:Accenture analysis based on multiple sources,to include EMSA,DNV and UNCTADNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition42Historically,commercial bank loans have served as the primary source
276、of financing for the shipping industry.Nevertheless,for the sector to achieve its net-zero objectives,there is a growing need for increased involvement from the public sector.This involvement can take the form of direct subsidies or blended finance mechanisms,both of which are designed to incentiviz
277、e private sector engagement in sustainable shipping initiatives.The International Chamber of Shipping(ICS)set out a Fund and Reward proposal to the IMO for shipowners to make mandatory contributions per tonne of CO2 emitted to create a new IMO fund to be established by 2024,which will reward uptake
278、of low and zero-carbon fuels and provide billions of dollars of funding annually for alternative fuel production and bunkering infrastructure in developing countries.134Approximately 50%of large publicly traded shipping companies consider climate change as a key consideration for their strategic ass
279、essment and integrate it into their operational decision-making.135 Meanwhile,19%of companies are building basic emissions management systems and process capabilities.Finally,27%of companies acknowledge climate change as a business issue.1363.9%Level 0:Unaware26.9%Level 1:Aware19.2%Level 2:Buildingc
280、apacity38.5%Level 3:Integrating into operational decision-making11.5%Level 4:Strategicassessment01234Distribution of companies in the shipping sector according to the management of their GHG emissions and of risks and opportunities related to the low-carbon transition FIGURE 27Source:“TPI online too
281、l”,LSE-TPI Centre,n.d.,https:/www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/sectors/shipping.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition43Trucking industry net-zero tracker1374Battery and hydrogen-powered electric trucks are considered vital for net-zero trucking,but adoption depends on region,duty cycle and suppo
282、rting policies.1385%1.6gtCO2e2%Contribution to global energy related GHG emissions Operational and fuel supply chain emissionsEmissions growth (2019-2022)108gCO296%2-2.5timesEmissions intensity(emitted per tonne miles,2020)Fossil fuels in the fuel mix(2021)Expected demand increase by 2050Key emissio
283、ns data139,140,141Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition44 Industry bodies propose an emissions reduction of 14%by 2030 and 92%by 2050.145Trucking emissions can be divided into two main categories:1.Well-to-tank mainly upstream emissions from production and distribution of fossil fuels.2.Tank-to-wak
284、e primarily due to combustion of fossil fuels,predominantly diesel,used during trucking operations.Sector prioritiesReadiness key takeawaysStated energy transition goalsEmission focus areas for trackerTechnologyTwo key zero-emission pathways are emerging,battery electric trucks(BETs)and hydrogen-ele
285、ctric trucks(HETs),which can nearly eliminate tailpipe emissions.Adoption is limited to around 1%partly due to increased ownership costs(33-133%142).InfrastructureInsufficient infrastructure,less than 1%of the needed amount,hinders technology scaling.Meeting 2050 goals requires a$2-$3.2 trillion143
286、in investment,primarily into clean power infrastructure.DemandZero-emission vehicles(ZEVs)held 1%of the market in 2022.A B2B green premium of 10-15%may be necessary,with about 1-3%affecting consumers.144 However,this remains untested at scale.PolicyPublic policy encourages ZEV adoption,with the EU t
287、aking the lead,but the industry is diverse and regulated at various levels.More policies are needed to support infrastructure development.CapitalAdditional capital requirements,including retrofitting the existing fleet requires a$2.1 trillion146 in investment.However,the business case remains weak d
288、ue to high costs and uncertain returns,given 6%industry profit margins and a 10%WACC.147Exisiting transportReduce near-term emissions intensity by:Accelerating the adoption of drop-in biofuels and synfuels in the interim Introducing standards and regulations around legacy vehicle decommissioning cyc
289、les Making use of efficiency and design improvement opportunities at an accelerated pace.Next generation transportAccelerate clean power infrastructure development,to reduce absolute emissions by:Investing in R&D to accelerate ultra-fast charging infrastructure deployment Investing in clean power in
290、frastructure to increase access to renewable energy sources Accelerating development of hydrogen-electric technologies for long-haul applications.Ecosystem De-risk capital investment to accelerate technology adoption by:Increasing incentive-based policies such as tax subsidies to drive charging infr
291、astructure deployment Implementing a blend of policies to incentivize accelerated fleet renewal outside BAU cycles.Notes:1 The scope of analysis covers the hard-to abate aspect of the Trucking industry,primarily heavy-duty trucking 2 Regions in scope for trucking analysis,based on MPP framework;US,C
292、hina,India,EUNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition45Absolute emissions,measured by gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent,are influenced by various factors such as fuel burn,load factors,vehicle type and route type.Currently,around 64%of the industrys total life cycle emissions arise from day-to-day operatio
293、ns,including vehicle use,maintenance and repair.148 Addressing long-haul emissions could potentially decarbonize 86%149 of the fleet in the EU.As BETs and hydrogen-electric trucks(HETs),scale up commercially,absolute emissions are expected to reduce almost equally between 2030-2040 and 2040-2050.Emi
294、ssions intensity in the trucking industry measures the amount of CO2 released per gigajoule of energy generated through fuel combustion.This intensityis influenced by vehicle types and combustion rates.Over the last four years,emissions intensity has reduced by around 14%due in part to efficiency me
295、asures,operational improvements and an increase in biofuels in the fuel mix.Currently,BETs have a high emissions intensity due to the reliance on coal and other fossil-based fuels for power generation.However,as clean power scales up,emissions intensity is expected to approach zero by 2030.To achiev
296、e net-zero targets,the trucking sector should aim to reduce emissions intensity by roughly 30%by 2030 and approximately 80%by 2050.150PerformanceBAU scenarioNet-zero scenario02005020406080100120Grams of CO2e per tonne-kilometre(gCO2e/tkm)109.3109.3105.6105.695.195.194.486.394.465.672.523.
297、82050 BAUscenario64.4 gCO2e/tkm2050 net-zero scenario3.6 gCO2e/tkm202220202040Emissions intensity trajectory for truckingFIGURE 28The key decarbonization strategy is to replace diesel combustion trucks with BETs,with HETs playing a smaller role.Immediate measures to accelerate emissions reduction in
298、clude increased operational efficiency in transport and distribution,fuel efficiency measures and modal shift from trucking to rail.Achieving a predominantly ZEV fleet by 2050 requires collaboration among industry stakeholders,government and global advisers.151 Priorities include investing in chargi
299、ng and refuelling infrastructure,advancing R&D for long-haul BETs and HETs,and stimulating market demand for zero-emission trucks(ZETs).These coordinated actions aim to accelerate infrastructure development and reduce overall ownership costs,promoting adoption throughout this decade.Despite the curr
300、ent dominance of fossil fuels in the fuel mix,a 53%emissions reduction is projected between 2030-2040 as commercial-scale BETs become widespread.152Path forward Industry should prioritize investment in charging and refuelling infrastructure,R&D and stimulating market demand.Source:IEANet-Zero Indust
301、ry Tracker 2023 Edition462021 fuel mixProportion of new trucks sold in 2050 MPP accelerated zero-emission scenarioFIGURE 29FIGURE 300%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Fossil fuelsBio-fuelsElectricity96%4%85%1.4times1%Fossil fuels in the fuel mix(2022)Expected demand increase by 2050Current low-emissio
302、n productionKey emissions data202,203,204,205Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition54 The industry targets a 45%reductionin intensity for primary steel and a 65%reduction for secondary steel by 2030,and net-zero emissions by 2050.211 70%212 of large publicly traded steel companies consider climate c
303、hange in their decision-making processes.Steel emissions can be divided into two main categories:1.Energy-related emissions are primarily due to coal use in the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace(BF-BOF)and EAF processes to produce molten steel for primary steel production.2.Process-related emission
304、s emanate from the use of coke or natural gas as a reducing agent to convert iron ore into iron for primary steel production.Sector prioritiesReadiness key takeawaysStated energy transition goalsEmission focus areas for trackerTechnologyPrimary steel206 can use both clean hydrogen and CCUS for decar
305、bonization.Secondary steel207 can use EAF with renewable electricity.However,costs are 40-70%208 higher than traditional methods.InfrastructureInadequate infrastructure requires$1.8-2.4 trillion209 for clean hydrogen and clean power development.Regions with steel capacity and access to affordable re
306、newables and CO2 storage should be prioritized.DemandNear-zero-emission steel held less than 1%of the market in 2022.A B2B green premium of 40-70%may be necessary,with about 1-2%affecting consumers.210 However,this remains untested at scale.PolicyEarly-stage steel decarbonization policies are needed
307、 especially in Asia-Pacific(with 70%global steel production).Policies should focus on clean power,hydrogen,R&D and green procurement for low-emission steel.Capital$372 billion213 is required by 2050,with 60%directed towards retrofitting existing assets.However,the business case remains weak,given 8.
308、5%industry profit margin and 10.1%WACC.214Existing assetsReduce near-term emissions intensity by:Deploying energy efficiency improvement techniques Shifting to transitional technologies such as DRI-EAF in regions where natural gas is affordable and available Switching to clean power sources for seco
309、ndary steel production,where cost competitive renewables are feasible.Next generation assetsAccelerate infrastructure development to drive absolute emissions reduction by:Investing in clean hydrogen generation capacity to support transition for primary steelmaking Retrofitting assets with CCUS where
310、 access to CO2 transport and storage is economical Enabling access to grid-based clean power for secondary steel.Ecosystem Enabling access to grid-based clean power for secondary steel by:Implementing a blend of policies,principally product standards and incentivizing low-emission production Reducin
311、g near-zero-emission production costs through an increased number of clean hydrogen projects Enabling shared infrastructure and supply chain stability through strategic partnerships.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition55The production process of steel is energy intensive and generates high CO2 emi
312、ssions,accounting for up to 95%of its emissions.The current fuel mix heavily relies on fossil fuels,predominantly coal,occupying around a 75%share.The coal dependency has remained consistently between 70-75%over the decade,215 substantially contributing to steels absolute emissions.Over the last dec
313、ade,steel CO2 emissions rose 2.5%annually,due to rising production driven by demand growth in emerging markets.Currently,78%216 of steel is produced using primary methods,while the remaining portion comes from secondary production.However,this distribution varies globally,with China predominantly us
314、ing primary processes-mainly BF-BOF for 90%of their steel,whereas North America relies on secondary processes for 70%217 of its steel production.Other major steel-producing regions like India and the EU exhibit a more balanced distribution between primary and secondary steelmaking.Energy intensity i
315、n steel production has remained relatively stable,averaging between 19-20 gigajoules per tonne(GJ/t)of steel over the past 5 years,218 due to improved energy efficiency and increased secondary steel production.Primary steel production is particularly energy-intensive due to the high temperatures req
316、uired to melt iron.Both primary steel production methods,BF-BOF and DRI-EAF,require up to 25 GJ/t of energy.In contrast the secondary steel method(EAF),reduces energy intensity by 2.5 times,down to 10 GJ/t,as melting scrap steel requires much less energy.PerformancePrimary steelSecondary steel0.0202
317、2203020500.51.01.52.02.5tCO2e/t of steel1.242.30.230.672050 BAUscenario0.33 tCO2e/tonne2050 net-zero scenario0.05 tCO2e/tonneEmissions intensity trajectory for primary and secondary steelSource:IEAFIGURE 35The industry targets a 45%reduction in intensityfor primary steel and a 65%reduction for secon
318、dary steel by 2030.219 The 2050 net-zero compliant fuel mix will require disconnecting steel emissions from the growth in market demand.This entails reducing non-abated fossil fuels from their current dominant share of 86%in the fuel mix to 30%,220 which will require a substantial increase in CCUS d
319、eployment.For primary steel production,accelerated investments are needed,together with the commercialization of clean hydrogen fuels,coupled with implementation of CCUS-enabled technologies.In the case of secondary steel production,expediting the adoption of clean power through EAF processes is par
320、amount.Path forwardof steels fuel mix comes from coal75%Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition562021 fuel mixEstimated share of production in 2050FIGURE 36FIGURE 370%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%74%8%14%CoalNatural gasElectricityOilOthers including bioenergy1%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%40%
321、20%22%11%7%Unabated fossil fuelsBioenergy and CCUSScrap-based secondary productionHydrogen-based productionCCS-based productionSources:IEA,Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap,2020,https:/ to net zero”,MPP,n.d.,https:/dash-mpp.plotly.host/mpp-steel-net-zero-explorer/.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edit
322、ion57Two leading decarbonization pathways have emerged for primary steel:clean hydrogen-based DRI-EAF is the most developed(TRL 6-8),and CCUS is rapidly developing(TRL 5-8).For secondary steel decarbonization,EAF-based production using 100%renewable electricity is a mature and available technology.P
323、roduction costs for these technologies are 40-70%higher221 than traditional steelmaking processes.Clean hydrogen potential for primary steel:Using clean hydrogen in production processes has the potential to reduce emissions by up to 97%,222 however,it comes with an expected green premium of 35-70%22
324、3 when compared to conventional BF-BOF processes.However,constraints around the capacity of EAFs in comparison to larger blast furnaces and deployment at smaller facilities impact the applicability of this technology.CCUS technologies for primary steel:Most CCUS-based technologies are projected to b
325、ecome commercially available after 2028.These CCUS technologies have the potential to decrease emissions by up to 90%224 compared to BF-BOF.Bioenergy carbon capture and storage(BECCS),a modified CCUS technology,can achieve up to negative emissions from BF-BOF,though results are dependent on the sour
326、ce of bioenergy.However,all CCUS technologies entail a significant green premium in the range of 65-120%.225 Although DRI-EAF with CCUS is currently accessible,its carbon capture efficiency is limited.CCUS technology is most suited for decarbonizing BF-BOF assets,especially given the higher concentr
327、ation of CO2 in blast furnace gases.EAF-based secondary steel production:Powered by 100%renewable electricity,this method offers a promising pathway towards near-zero-emission steel at low cost.EAF technology can reduce emissions by 90-95%compared to BF-BOF,with only a marginal cost premium of 8-13%
328、.226 Yet,there are limits around the applications for secondary steel due to variances in the quality of available scrap.Adoption is likely to be faster in regions where competitively priced clean power and scrap steel are readily available.China,for instance,is expected to witness an estimated 70%g
329、rowth in EAF production by 2050 compared to 2020 levels.227 Additionally,SSAB,the largest steel manufacturer in Scandinavia,launched SSAB Zero,produced from emission-free recycled steel.One of its main advantages is its near-zero-carbon emissions throughout the companys operations,contributing to an
330、 emission-free value chain for end-users.However,this sustainability comes at a higher cost due to the manufacturing process.228Process emissions abatement measuresEnergy emissions abatement measures2TechnologySTEEL Steel decarbonisation is likely to be faster in regions where competitively priced c
331、lean power and scrap steel are readily available.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023 Edition58Technology pathways11Large prototypeDemonstrationEarly adoptionMatureSmall prototypeConceptElectrolyser-EAF(2035)Electrowinning-EAF(2035)BF-BOF with CCS(2028)BF-BOF with BECCS(2028)BF-BOF with CCUS(20
332、28)Smelting reduction with CCS(2028)DRI-Melt-BOF with CCS(2028)DRI-EAF 100%green hydrogen(2028)DRI-Melt-BOF 100%green hydrogen(2028)DRI-EAF with CCS(2025)Scrap-based EAFwith green power(available)Estimated TRL and year of availability for key technology pathwaysSource:MPPFIGURE 38Net-Zero Industry T
333、racker 2023 Edition59Steel decarbonization relies on the availability of clean hydrogen,CCUS and EAF-based secondary steel production.Establishing infrastructure for near-zero-emission production requires significant investments,estimated between$1.8-2.6 trillion.229 Of this,90%should be directed towards creating clean hydrogen and clean power generation capacity,with the remainder for CO2 transpo