《思略特:2023欧盟电池回收市场分析报告(英文版)(28页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《思略特:2023欧盟电池回收市场分析报告(英文版)(28页).pdf(28页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、EU recycling market studyJoint study between Strategy&and PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023EU recycling marketThe EU recycling market a viable and sustainable businessStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Battery recycling gained huge momentum in the last year,with multiple stakeh
2、olders announcing various initiativesRecent battery recycling press clippingsEU recycling market study2Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023The EU battery recycling market will evolve into a sustainable business,extending the EU value chainManagement summaryRegulatory driversFollowing A
3、sian regulation,the EU revised its regulatory environment in 2023 among other things,requiring a recycling efficiency of 70%from 2031 onwardsRecycling technologyWith a clear technological pathway and established supply chains,costs are expected to scale down by up to 50%for hubs operating at 40 kt a
4、nd spokes at 10 kt2030 EU recycling market outlookBy 2030,we expect more than 2 bn in investments into the EU recycling market.Handling further market growth trough to 2035 requires additional investments of 7 bnImplications and recommendationsRecycling will become a viable and sustainable business
5、beyond regulatory pressure with projected 8 bn in revenue and potential reduction in battery cost(e.g.,24/kWh cathode active material)12345EU recycling market study3Battery marketHigh electrification rates and the ramp-up of EU cell production to 900 GWh in 2030 will drive the EU recycling market up
6、 to 6,000 kt end-of-life batteries in 2040August 2023Strategy&August 2023High electrification rates and the ramp-up of EU cell production will drive the EU recycling market1Battery marketStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityEU recycling market study4Gigafactory ramp-up in EuropeFollowing the EU el
7、ectrification market dynamics,battery manufacturing ramps up significantly all over Europe.By 2030,nearly 1.0 TWh in EU gigafactory supply is expected.End-of-life batteries take major role in recyclingDriven initially by gigafactory scrap,the market turns from 2030 onwards,with vehicles from the fir
8、st wave of electrification reaching end-of-life.By 2040,the EU battery recycling market will ramp up towards 1.0 TWh.Electrification increases significantlyBy 2030,around 40%of light vehicles globally will be based on a BEV platform,and over 70%BEV share is expected in 2040.From 2030 to 2040,global
9、battery demand will nearly double to up to 6.5 TWh.Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 202355543528551022520251,53088048020302,6001,20090060020352,9001,3001,1001,20020401,5003,4005,3006,500By 2030,40%of all light vehicles will be a BEV platform,fueled by EU and China,with over 3.4 TWh batt
10、ery demand1)In the following,“battery”stands for high-voltage lithium-ion batteries in the automotive sectorBEV diffusion and battery demand(realistic scenario,as of 2023)Global BEV diffusion(in m units)Global battery1demand(in GWh)Light vehicle up to 6t10%202222%202542%203061%203572%204079929810511
11、1Non-BEVBEVEU recycling market study5Rest of worldStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023202220232024202520262027202820292030Following the demand for electric vehicles,European battery cell production ramps up over the next decade*)Adjusted forecast based on announced GWh capacity compare
12、d to current project start-up status,based on desktop research and expert estimates.EU gigafactory ramp-up2022:33 GWh Forecast for gigafactory ramp-up in EuropeComments Difference between announced and expected GWh ramp-up primarily due to late start of construction and market consolidation Top 5 ma
13、nufacturers cover about half of total capacity in 2030 Most small manufacturers start ramp-up from 2027 onwardsTop 1Top 2Top 3Top 4Top 5Others2030:900 GWh 900Announcements 2030Strategy&2030 prognosis*1,800-50%EU recycling market study6Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023202320252030203
14、520405(10 kt)20(70 kt)100(460 kt)475(2,650 kt)1,000(5,950 kt)10 x15%85%30%70%202320%80%202540%60%2030203590%10%20405(10 kt)20(70 kt)100(460 kt)475(2,650 kt)1,000(5,950 kt)By 2040,battery recycling is up ten-fold vs.2030 driven by gigafactory scrap initially,EoL batteries ramp up from 2030+European r
15、ecycling market(in GWh)Between 2023 and 2030,gigafactory scrap drives the marketWith scrap rates reducing significantly,it will comprise 10%of the market in 20405,950 kt of end-of-life batteries in 2040 drive the marketEoL batteriesScrapApprox.ten-fold increase in share of recyclable material betwee
16、n 2030 and 2040Fast ramp-up from 2030 onwards because of first wave of electrification reaching end-of-lifeEU recycling market study7Development of recyclable material(in GWh,kt)Distribution of recyclable material(in GWh,kt)Strategy&August 2023Following Asian regulation,the EU revised its legislatio
17、n and set a regulatory environment from 2023 onwardsStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen University2Regulatory driversEU recycling market study8Asia leads way in regulationWith initial regulations since 2013,South Korea and China are leading the way in battery recycling.Current battery recycling rates are 9
18、0%.EU revised its legislation The EU Battery Directive,stipulating recycling rates of 55%since 2006,required a new framework.With the Battery Regulation 2023,the EU set a relevant milestone for an EU closed-loop battery value chain.Clear targets enabling a closed loopWith the EU legislation taking e
19、ffect in 2023,it sets recycling efficiencies and rates for each critical material and defines a minimum target for use of recycled material for cell production.Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Following Asian regulations,the EU recently set its recycling agenda,effective from 2023 o
20、nwardsUSA still has no general obligation in place for battery recyclingThere are research projects and programs like“Call2Recycle”which push for battery recycling regulationBy classifying materials for clean technology as critical,the Critical Minerals and Materials Program indirectly impacts batte
21、ry recyclingNew regulatory environment for battery recycling adopted in August 2023Europe revised its Battery Directive from 2006 to regulate the entire battery lifecycleThe updated regulatory framework introduces end-of-life requirements such as collection and recovery targets,as well as extended p
22、roducer responsibilityAdvanced battery recycling regulation and efficiencySince 2013,South Korea has established recycling rates of about 90%for batteriesChina has a battery recycling rate of about 90%and recycling rates for materials of lesser importance such as manganese of above 85%,as well as re
23、gulations for wastewater handlingDeep dive on next slideEU recycling market study9Regulatory environmentStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023202520302035The revised EU Regulation sets increased recovery targets,recycling efficiencies and minimum level of recycled material useMilestones
24、of European battery regulation and implicationsIncrease by 5 pp in recycling efficiencyOver 100%increase inuse of recycled materialOver 100%increase in recovery target for Li+65%+70%+35%Li90%Co,Ni,Cu+80%Li95%Co,Ni,Cu6%Li6%Ni 16%Co12%Li15%Ni26%CoEU recycling market study10Recovery targetsMin.recycled
25、 materialRecycling efficiencyStrategy&August 2023With a clear technological pathway,we see recycling preparation in decentralized spokes and the main recycling activities in central hubs3Battery recycling technologyStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityEU recycling market study11Technological pathw
26、ay is clearly setOver the coming years,the technological development will move from pyrometallurgy towards hydrometallurgy,at higher recycling efficiencies.Value chain is being establishedA value chain consisting of preparation,pre-treatment and main treatment is currently being built up.Further spe
27、cialization and scaling along the value chain could reduce investments by up to 50%.Hub-and-spoke footprint to be establishedThe high CAPEX for main treatment drives the value chain set-up towards centralized hubs,with preparation and pre-treatment placed in decentralized spokes close to customers.A
28、 1:10 hub-to-spoke ratio is expected.Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023PyrometallurgyApplying high-temperature processes to produce alloys(Cu,Co,Ni)and slag(Li)HydrometallurgyApplying chemical processes of leaching,removal of impurities and separation.Steps might be followed by purif
29、ication to produce battery-grade materialsDirect recyclingProducing directly reusable cathode active material PreparationPre-treatmentMain treatmentRecycling can be divided into three steps:decentralized preparation and pre-treatment and centralized main treatment1 Battery active material mixture Ov
30、erview of battery recycling processesBlack mass(BAMM1)SeparationSeparating different materials by sieving,froth flotation,density,and magnetic-based processesShredded packComminutionCrushing of cells by dry or wet shredding,impact mill or shockwavesMetal alloy/slagBattery-grade materialsDecentralize
31、d activities across spokes(lower capital requirements)Centralized activities in hubs(high capital requirements)EU recycling market study12123Cathode active materialDisassembly Disassembling battery pack,removing housing,frame,wiring,and cooling systemModules/cellsModules/cellsThermal treatmentPyroly
32、sis or atmospheric thermal processing of the battery pack to prepare for comminutionDischarged packDischargingDischarging batteries to enable safe recycling processStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Hydrometallurgy Hydrometallurgy is a chemical process involving leaching,removal of im
33、purities,and separation Followed by solvent extraction and/or chemical precipitation to recover and increase the purity of Li,Ni,Mn,and CoPyrometallurgy Producing concentrated alloy containing Co,Ni,and Cu,by smelting the batteries in a heat-based process at 1,500C Li and Mn end up in slag,ready to
34、be used in the construction industry or processed further to recover LiDriven by efficiency and maturity,main treatment processes evolve from pyro-to hydro-metallurgical processes1)CAM=Cathode active material;2)TRL=Technology Readiness LevelMain treatment:Process types and characteristicsTechnologyK
35、PIs(as of today)LowHighBattery-grade materialsMetal ore/alloyTRL2CAPEXOPEXEfficiencyDirect recycling Material is recovered to be used directly in battery production Any combination of thermal and chemical processes to specifically recover CAM1without breaking it down into individual elements This pr
36、ocess is still mostly in the R&D phaseCathode active materialOutputTRLCAPEXOPEXEfficiencyTRLCAPEXOPEXEfficiencyEU recycling market study13Main treatment3Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023PreparationPre-treatmentMain treatmentRecovery efficiency19%First prio battery-grade materials21%
37、Second prio battery-grade materialsWith current hydrometallurgical processes,20%of the EoL battery mass can be recycled for active materialsAssumption of 70:30 ratio between NMC and LFP batteriesPicture source:https:/ efficiency:Battery material recovery(illustrative for hydrometallurgy)100%EoL batt
38、eries60%Non-active materials40%BAMM Overall,19%of EoL battery mass can be recovered to first prio battery-grade materials With 90%efficiency over the whole recycle path,first prio battery-grade materials are extracted from BAMM Recovering secondprio battery-grade materials is still in the developmen
39、t stageAnode materialCathode material3Li25Mn27Co28Ni123Non-active battery material(e.g.housing,wires)6C13Al26Fe29CuEU recycling market study14CommentsStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Main treatment accounts for the majority of capital demand recycling hubs as potential opportunity f
40、or economies of scale1)Operating and capital costs were calculated to a class 4 accuracy(25%)by the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering(AACE)Source:VDMA/Fraunhofer ISI(Recycling of lithium-ion batteries:Opportunities and Challenges for Mechanical and Plant Engineering)2021;Sattar et
41、al.(Automotive Lithium ion Battery Recycling in the UK)2020;Primobius(Recycling JV with Primobius Operating and Investment Cost Estimates)2021;Lima et al.(Economic Aspects for the Recycling of Used Lithium-Ion Batteries from EVs)2022;PEM insightsCAPEX/OPEX1for battery recycling process elements 0.00
42、.51.01.52.02.53.0m/1,000 t batteries/a DischargeSemi-automated disassemblyMechanical pre-treatmentHydrometallurgyPyrometallurgyOther(overhead,logistics,etc.)0.10.10.20.10.60.22.90.52.30.40.31.3 Spokes are responsible for the less capital-intensive preparation and pre-treatment phases Hubs focus on m
43、ain treatment with a major CAPEX and OPEX share “Other”category includes overhead for all parts of the recycling process chain,logistics,etc.CAPEXOPEX per yearDecentralized activities across spokesCentralized activities in hubs EU recycling market study15CommentsPreparationPre-TMain treatment123Stra
44、tegy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0000.00.51.01.52.02.5-50%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0000481216-55%Recycling spoke(10,000 t/a)Mechanical preparation and pre-treatment10,000 tEoL batteries4,000 tBAMM40%The trade-off between economy of scale and distance to cu
45、stomerdetermines the ideal facility size of hubs and spokes For spokes,the ideal size is expected to process 10 kt/a EoL batteries Larger spokes with further exploitation of economies of scale are contradicted by rising transport costs For hubs,the ideal size is expected to process 40 kt/a BAMMFor b
46、oth hubs and spoke,exploiting economies of scale in process chain design can approximately halve CAPEX Cost evaluation along the process chaint BAMMt batteries m/1,000t m/1,000t EU recycling market study16Recycling chainEconomy of scale(CAPEX in/t)CommentsTransportWith an expected ratio of 1:10,ten
47、spokes serve one hub Recycling hub(40,000 t/a)Main treatment(hydro)40,000 tBAMM19,000 tBattery-grade materials43%Strategy&August 2023By 2030,we expect investments of more than 2 bn in the EU recycling market42030 EU recycling market outlookStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityEU recycling market s
48、tudy17Additional investments required for 2035To handle all recyclable material in 2035,additional investments in recycling capacity of 7 bn are required.Announced ramp-up requires significant investsAfter initial recycling overcapacities,the market is expected to be fully utilized from 2030 onwards
49、,requiring investments of more than 2.2 bn for a total recycling capacity of 570 kt/a.Recycling capacity gap arises from 2030With the first wave of electrification reaching end of life,the recyclable material exceeds the announced capacity,resulting in a recycling capacity gap by 2030.Strategy&|PEM
50、of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Hub(hydrometallurgical recycling facility)Pyrometallurgical recycling facilitySpoke(mechanical pre-treatment facility)Yearly recycling capacityFor the capacity ramp-up of hubs and spokes,investments of approximately 2.2 billion by 2030 have been announcedAnnounced
51、 recycling landscape and capacity developmentHub-spoke network with big hydrometall.facilities(hubs)and multiple small mechanical pre-treatment facilities(spokes)6003006001,600CAPEX in mBy 2025By 2030900Total CAPEX m260kt battery recycling capacity70kt BAMM recycling capacity5hubs15,000 BAMM capacit
52、y/hub33spokes8,000 battery capacity/spoke16hubs40,000 BAMM capacity/hub57spokes10,000 battery capacity/spoke2,200Total CAPEX m570kt battery recycling capacity254kt BAMM recycling capacityEU recycling market study18European recycling landscape in 2030 Investments into recycling supply chain(CAPEX in
53、m)Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 202301,0002,0003,000202320252027203020332035 Significant overcapacities in the European recycling market by 2030,market expected to consolidate From 2030 onwards,a gap between available material and recycling capacity arises The spokes,in particular,ha
54、ve a large capacity gap The recycling capacity gap is expected to be closed by additional investments Putting the announced recycling capacity in context against available material,a capacity gap arises from 2030 onwardsNote:Hub comprises capacity for hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical recycli
55、ngRecycling capacity development from today to 2035SpokeHubMaterial to be recycled(EoL+scrap)Potential recycling overcapacityInvestment-driven gap-closing expected EU recycling market study19Recycling capacity development(in kt batteries)CommentsStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Addi
56、tional investments of approximately 7 billion are expected to close the recycling capacity gap by 2035Note:Hub comprises capacity for hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical recyclingRecycling capacity development beyond 203001,0002,0003,0002030203342,60020351,600SpokeHubMaterial to be r
57、ecycled(EoL and scrap)CAPEX in m9,600Total CAPEX m2,600kt battery recycling capacity1,000 kt BAMM recycling capacity27hubs40,000 BAMM capacity/hub266spokes10,000 battery capacity/spokeTo meet the demand for recycling capacity in 2035,a total CAPEX of 9.6 bn is requiredBased on the announcements,1.6
58、bn will already be invested in hubs and 0.6 bn in spokes by 2030To build up the capacity needed,a further 7.4 bn in totalmust be invested by 20355,1001,6002,30060020352030investsEU recycling market study20Recycling capacity development 2030-2035(in kt batteries)Investments into recycling supply chai
59、n(CAPEX in m)Strategy&August 2023Recycling will become a viable and sustainable business,beyond regulatory requirements5Implications and recommendationsStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityEU recycling market study21Recycling potentially reduces CAM priceWith more recyclate available at competitiv
60、e cost,a positive impact on battery prices can be expected through reducing CAM price by up to 20%(i.e.24/kWh),further spurring electrification and recycling market uptake.Economic motivation drives ramp-upWith ramped-up operations and increasing battery disposal,the recycling business is capable of
61、 building viable and sustainable profits for all value chain stakeholders.Recycled material contribute significantlyIn 2035,recycled material may account for up to 30%of Li,Ni,and Co demand for battery cell production.The EU recycling targets are expected to be met,with only minor deviations.Strateg
62、y&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 202310%20%30%95%90%70%40%5%20252030+10%2035+30%2040In 2040,recycled material can contribute up to 60%,although a completely closed loop not possible until well beyond 2040Material demand for battery production To create a best-case scenario,we have assumed the
63、maximum possible recycling rate In the moderate scenario,we have assumed a slightly lower recycling rate In best-case scenario a ratio of about 40:60 newly mined to recycled material for battery cell production is projected by 2040 The recycled active material share will gain momentum from 2030 onwa
64、rds,when the first wave of end-of-life batteries kicks in Nevertheless,an almost completely closed loop with recycled material will not be possible until well beyond 2040New active materialBest case scenario recycled material1)Moderate case scenario recycled materialEU recycling market study22Develo
65、pment of recycled active material share(multiple case scenario)Comments1)Best case scenario assumes nearly full recycling of all available EoL batteries and production scrapStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023August 202322August 2023Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023202
66、020252030203520400%20%40%60%80%202020252030203520400%20%40%60%80%202020252030203520400%20%40%60%The amount of recycled material available for cell production consistently exceeds the amount required by EU regulationsTrend in recycled materialEU regulatory targetsMin.%under EU regulations vs.max.poss
67、ible%Minimum percentage of recyclate in production based on EU regulationsMaximum percentage of recyclate in production based on available recyclateEnough recycled lithium available to satisfy EU regulationsEnough recycled nickel available to satisfy EU regulationsEnough recycled cobalt available,ap
68、art form a potential shortage in the early 2030sEU recycling market study23Lithium CobaltNickel Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 20232020202520302035012345678 bn5.0 bn-2,00002,0004,0006,000/t2025203020351,500/tEuropean recycling reaches break-even by 2025 and develops from then on with
69、an increasing marginMaterial price assumptions for calculation 2025+:Lithium 13/kg(LCE),Nickel 20/kg(ME)and Cobalt 37/kg(ME)Sales and cost projection Calculation of sales volume is based on the trend in market prices for the recycled materials European recycling reaches profitability from 2025 onwar
70、ds,with costs being scaled down and overcapacities reduced Distribution of marginsacross the recycling value chain(i.e.intensified competition)or the battery value chain(i.e.cell and battery manufacturers)has a high impact on future battery pricesSalesCostProfitEU recycling market study24Sales and c
71、osts European marketSales,costs,and profitsCommentsStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Most stakeholders along the battery value chain benefit directly or indirectly from value-add of battery recyclingMaterial price assumptions for calculation 2025+:Lithium 13/kg(LCE),Nickel 20/kg(ME)a
72、nd Cobalt 37/kg(ME)2035 value-add distribution and implicationsRecycling revenueRecycling costsRecycling value-add8.0 bn3.0 bn5.0 bnUp to 20%price reduction for cathode active materialsDisposal of EoL batteries will be free of charge or even generate value to the ownerNo price reduction for cathode
73、active materials through recyclingOEM/customer must pay for disposal of end-of-life batteriesValue chainTodayImplications by 2035Likely scenarioCustomer/OEMMaterial pricesNo OEM accrual required for battery disposal customer will be paid for EoL batteryRecycling value-add may enable price reduction
74、for cathode active materialsIMargin expected to meet automotive industry average(8.10%)Very little to no margin for recyclerRecycler(hub/spoke)Recycling value-add will lead to sustainable marginsIIIIIEU recycling market study25Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Battery recycling indus
75、try scenario analysis reveals an ideal environment,with low cost combined with excess materialsScenario analysisAccording to market analysis,there will be an excess of recycled battery material,ready to be back-cycled into battery cell productionLow costs for recycled material in combination with ex
76、cess materials realize an ideal market environment for the battery recycling industryCell production also benefits throughcost reductionBattery closed-loop recycling will thereby be enabled,potentially improving availability of materials within EuropeAvailability of recycled materialExcessLow(recycl
77、ed virgin)High(recycled virgin)Costs virgin/recycledLack“The availability of expensive recycled material will lead to oversupply,as cell manufacturers will only comply with regulatory conditions.”“The combination of high material supply at low recycling cost will realize an ideal market environment
78、for the battery industry.”“Low-cost recycled material in small quantities leads to a significant increase in demandfrom of cell manufacturers,causing material prices to rise again.”“A shortage of recycled material combined with high recycling costs as well as regulatory requirements will lead to a d
79、ifficult market environment.”Viable recycling businessPotential recycling businessInfeasible recycling businessLimited recycling businessExpected situationEU recycling market study26CommentsStrategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023Key takeawaysWave 1:Limited portfolio with NMC dominant cell
80、 chemistry,driven by the premium segment.Wave 2:Diversification driven by entry and volume segment.Wave 3:Platform diversification further drives cell chemistry portfolio.Wave 4:Future technology injection(e.g.solid-state batteries)results in more diversification of cell portfolio.NMC chemistries co
81、ntinue to dominate the market L(M)FP and Na-Ion chemistries entering via entry&volume segmentsGlobal battery demand cell chemistry split(in GWh)Global battery demand cell chemistry split(in GWh)20222025203020405001,5003,4006,500Na-IonL(M)FPNMCNMCNa-IonLNMONMxSolid statesL(M)FPWave 1:Limited Portfoli
82、oWave 2:First diversificationWave 4:Technology injectionWave 3:Chemistry portfolioEU recycling market study27August 2023Strategy&|PEM of RWTH Aachen UniversityAugust 2023 Edit Master text styles Text Text Edit Master text styles Text Text Edit Master text styles Text Text Edit Master text styles Tex
83、t TextWe would like to exchange our ideas with you!Prof.Dr.-Ing.Achim KampkerFounder and ChairholderPEM RWTH Aachen Universitya.kampkerpem.rwth-aachen.deDr.-Ing.Christian OffermannsChief EngineerPEM RWTH Aachen Universityc.offermannspem.rwth-aachen.deMerlin FrankResearch AssociatePEM RWTH Aachen Universitym.frankpem.rwth-aachen.deTimon ElligerResearch AssociatePEM RWTH Aachen Universityt.elligerpem.rwth-aachen.deDr.-Ing.Jrn NeuhausenDirectorPwC Strategy&Jan-Hendrik BomkeManagerPwC Strategy&jan-Dr.-Ing.Philipp RoseDirectorPwC Strategy&Felix FerkAssociatePwC Strategy&EU recycling market study28