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1、 itif.org The Hamilton Index,2023:China Is Running Away With Strategic Industries ROBERT D.ATKINSON AND IAN TUFTS|DECEMBER 2023 China now dominates the strategically important industries in ITIFs Hamilton Index,producing more than any other nation in absolute terms and more than all but a few others

2、 in relative terms.Its gains are coming at the expense of the United States and other G7 and OECD economies,and time is running short for policymakers to mount an industrial comeback.KEY TAKEAWAYS As of 2020,China was the leading producer in seven of the ten strategically important industries in ITI

3、Fs Hamilton Index.Overall,China was producing more than any other nationand more than all other nations outside of the top 10 combined.Hamilton Index industries accounted for approximately the same share of the global economy in 2020(11.8 percent)as in 1995(11.9 percent),underscoring how the race fo

4、r global advantage in these industries is a zero-sum competition.Chinas gains have come at the expense of the United States and other G7 and OECD economies.From 1995 to 2020,China also captured more than 80 percent of non-OECD countries gains.China is 70 percent more specialized than America in adva

5、nced industries.To match Chinas specialization,U.S.output would have to expand by$1.5 trillion(69 percent),which would require doubling output from all Hamilton industries except IT services.Time is running short to turn around U.S.advanced industry fortunes.The 2020s are likely to be the decisive d

6、ecade because once China captures sufficient global market share,U.S.and allied nations production risks being permanently weakened.Congress should make closing this massive advanced-industry output gap its overarching economic policy goal,including through tax,trade,and other elements of a comprehe

7、nsively focused national industry strategy.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 2 CONTENTS Key Takeaways.1 Introduction.4 Overall Findings.6 Specialization Rankings.6 Relative Momentum.11 Top 10 Producers.13 The China Juggernaut.14 Industry Profiles.19 IT and Information S

8、ervices.19 Computers,Electronics and Optical Products.25 Chemicals.30 Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology.35 Machinery and Equipment.40 Fabricated Metals.45 Motor Vehicles.50 Other Transportation Equipment.55 Basic Metals.60 Electrical Equipment.65 Top 10 Producer Profiles.70 No.1:China.70 No.2:United

9、 States.73 No.3:Japan.78 No.4:Germany.81 No.5:South Korea.84 No.6:India.87 No.7:United Kingdom.90 No.8:France.93 No.9:Italy.96 No.10:Taiwan.99 Other Noteworthy Producers.102 No.11:Russia.102 No.13:Canada.104 No.14:Mexico.106 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 3 No.15:Bra

10、zil.108 No.19:Australia.110 No.32:Vietnam.112 Select Regional Groupings.114 The Group of Seven.114 EU-17.116 EU-10.118 Quad.120 Commonwealth Countries.122 Belt&Road Members.124 Appendices.126 Appendix A:Hamilton Index Industries.126 Appendix B:Advanced Industries Relationship to National Trade Balan

11、ces.127 Appendix C:Country Groupings.128 Appendix D:Hamilton Index Calculations.129 Endnotes.130 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 4 INTRODUCTION Nations are in a fierce win-lose global competition for market share in advanced,traded-sector technology industries because

12、,for most,winning enables economic and national security.That is especially true for allied nations,as Chinas gain usually comes at its loss and vice versa.Winningnot only the competition for innovation leadership but also for production capacitywill boost international competitiveness and economic

13、and national security.When it comes to U.S.national interest,innovation-based production is key.The United States has a long history of pioneering innovations only to see its production captured by other nations,including China.This reduces growth,weakens the terms of trade(creating a higher trade b

14、alance,a weaker dollar,or both),degrades the national security industrial base,and makes America vulnerable to industrial pressure tactics from China.To assess U.S.and other nations performance,the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation(ITIF)has examined changes in global shares of value-a

15、dded output in 10 advanced industry sectors its Hamilton Center on Industrial Competitiveness has aggregated into the Hamilton Index of Advanced-Technology Performance:pharmaceuticals;electrical equipment;machinery and equipment;motor vehicle equipment;other transport equipment;computer,electronic,a

16、nd optical products;information technology and information services;chemicals(not including pharmaceuticals);basic metals;and fabricated metals.To conduct this analysis,ITIF uses production data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developments(OECDs)dataset on trade in value added,cov

17、ering the period from 1995 through 2020,and ITIFs analysis focuses on 40 countries included in that dataset.1 Because of problems with how Irelands output is reported,it is not included in the analysis or in EU-wide aggregate data.2 The 10 industries included in the Hamilton Index together accounted

18、 for more than$10 trillion in global production in 2020(figure 1).The information technology(IT)and information services industry(including software and Internet services)is the largest of the 10,accounting for 18 percent of global advanced industry output.Figure 1:Global output from industries incl

19、uded in the Hamilton Index,2020($10.1 trillion,total)INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 5 The 10 industries collective production represented 11.8 percent of the global economy in 2020,about the same as 25 years prior,having rebounded from a dip to 10.6 percent following

20、 the global financial crisis of 2008 that saw steeper declines in goods output than overall gross domestic product(GDP).(See figure 2.)However,the mix has changed,with the IT and information services share growing 34 percent since 2002.The fact that the overall share of the global economy comprising

21、 this advanced industry output has not changed underscores the zero-sum competition between nations.Indeed,there is a noticeable correlation between strength in these industries and nations balance of trade.(See Appendix B:Advanced Industries Relationship to National Trade Balances.)Nations are,or a

22、t least should be,competing intensively for a greater share of this fixed pie.China certainly is.For the United States,losing this race,either because policymakers are indifferent to the countrys industrial structure or because they choose to focus on other economic or societal goals,would be catast

23、rophic,as it would turn the United States into a deindustrialized,United Kingdom-like economy.Time is short.The 2020s are likely to be the decisive decade in which to turn around U.S.advanced industry fortunes,because once China gains sufficient global market share,allied and U.S.production risks be

24、ing permanently weakened.The fact that the overall share of the global economy comprising this advanced industry output has not changed underscores the zero-sum competition between nations.In several reports,ITIF has laid out a comprehensive advanced industry strategy.3 But notwithstanding the passa

25、ge of the CHIPS Act,the political will in the United States to implement and fully fund such an agenda appears to be relatively low,especially as neither political party wants to address the massive budget deficit to free up needed funding for such a strategy.Figure 2:Hamilton industry shares of the

26、 global economy 11.9%10.6%Global Index,11.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%5201020152020Other TransportationElectrical EquipmentPharmaceuticalsFabricated MetalsBasic MetalsMotor VehiclesMachinery and EquipmentChemicalsComputers and ElectronicsIT and Information ServicesINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATI

27、ON FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 6 Of course,global market shares of the advanced industries cannot serve as the only metric of national competitivenessor even the primary onebecause nations have different-sized economies.To assess nations relative performance in strategically important industries,I

28、TIF uses an analytical statistic known as a“location quotient”(LQ),which measures any regions level of industrial specialization relative to a larger geographic unitin this case,a nation relative to the rest of the world.The LQ is calculated as an industrys share of a countrys economy divided by the

29、 global industrys share of the global economy,or as a countrys share of global output in an industry divided by the countrys overall share of the global economy.Either way,an LQ greater than 1 means the countrys share of global output in an industry is greater than the global average;and an LQ less

30、than 1 means a countrys share is less than the global average.For example,the U.S.motor vehicle industrys output in 2020 was 14.01 percent of global motor vehicle production,while the U.S.economy overall was 24.71 percent of the global economy.Thus,the U.S.LQ in the motor vehicles industry was 14.01

31、 percent divided by 24.71 percent,or 0.57,meaning the United States significantly underperformed in the industry:Its output(and global market share)was just 57 percent of the level we would expect based on the size of the U.S.economy.The 2020s are likely the decisive decade in which to turn around U

32、.S.advanced industry fortunes,for once China gains sufficient global market share,allied and U.S.production risks being permanently weakened.OVERALL FINDINGS Specialization Rankings Figure 3 ranks 40 countries by their relative performance(LQ)in the composite Hamilton Index based on the most recent

33、data available from the OECD.Fourteen countries have LQs above average for the composite output of the 10 industries,with Taiwan ranking first at 2.1(with almost all of that driven by its computer and semiconductor output).Three other East Asian nationsKorea,Singapore,China,and Japan ranked second,t

34、hird,fifth and seventh,respectively.This in large part reflects the focused and dedicated advanced industry policies these nations have had in place for the last several decades.Engineering and chemical industry-intensive nations of Switzerland,Germany,Sweden,and Austria ranked fourth,sixth,ninth,an

35、d eleventh,respectively.Several developing countries ranked low,with LQs below 0.5,including Egypt,Bangladesh,Pakistan,and Nigeria.In addition,natural resource-intensive nations such as Canada,Saudi Arabia,Australia,and Norway all ranked low.The United States LQ was 0.87,meaning that as a share of U

36、.S.GDP,these industries collectively are smaller than the global average.For the U.S.LQ to be 1.0,advanced industry output would need to expand by$328 billion,or 15 percent.This would be equivalent to doubling Americas computer,electronics,and optical products industry output.Some will argue that it

37、s acceptable or even normal for the U.S.LQ to be this low because it is a large economy and one where the share of GDP that is globally traded is below average.But LQ is not a measure related to trade;its a measure related to production.Moreover,there is a small,INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOU

38、NDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 7 positive correlation between national GDP and LQ(0.12),suggesting that the U.S.score should be above average,not below.The reality is Americas low LQ reflects failure,not success;weakness,not strength.Figure 3:Relative national performance in the composite Hamilton Index

39、(2020 LQ)When it comes to relative change in LQ,the story is somewhat different.From 1995 to 2002,Taiwan and Korea led in LQ growth.(See figure 4.)Several European nations also increased 2.101.771.671.471.471.391.211.161.151.141.091.071.071.060.960.930.920.880.870.850.850.830.830.760.690.670.640.630

40、.590.580.570.570.470.470.460.450.440.410.290.12TaiwanKoreaSingaporeSwitzerlandChinaGermanyJapanIsraelSwedenMalaysiaAustriaThailandIndiaPhilippinesDenmarkBelgiumItalyMexicoUnited StatesPolandNetherlandsTurkeyVietnamRussiaFranceUnited KingdomBrazilSpainArgentinaCanadaSouth AfricaIndonesiaEgyptSaudi Ar

41、abiaAustraliaBangladeshNorwayPakistanNigeriaHong KongOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 8 significantly,including Switzerland,Austria,Denmark,and Germany.Russia increased its score by almost 25 percentage points as it overthrew the straitjac

42、ket of Soviet communism and got out from under export controls that the Western Bloc established during the Cold War.The United States LQ fell slightly by 8 percentage points.Figure 4:Change in relative national performance in the composite Hamilton Index(LQ difference,19952020)0.380.340.240.240.230

43、.220.180.170.160.140.130.120.110.100.070.070.050.020.01-0.01-0.03-0.07-0.07-0.08-0.09-0.09-0.10-0.11-0.11-0.12-0.12-0.13-0.14-0.17-0.20-0.21-0.22-0.24-0.31-0.41TaiwanKoreaSwitzerlandRussiaAustriaDenmarkPolandIsraelNigeriaSaudi ArabiaGermanyPhilippinesVietnamThailandNetherlandsMexicoChinaItalyIndiaSi

44、ngaporeBangladeshHong KongMalaysiaUnited StatesSpainJapanSwedenArgentinaBelgiumBrazilEgyptNorwayFranceTurkeyUnited KingdomAustraliaIndonesiaPakistanCanadaSouth AfricaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 9 Some industries are more concentrated than others

45、.For example,the country that is most specialized in machinery and equipment production,Germany,had an LQ of 2.02,whereas Taiwan outperformed even more dramatically in computers and electronics with an LQ of 8.79.(See table 1.)Some of this is because leading specialists such as Taiwan,Switzerland,Si

46、ngapore,Mexico,and Israel are relatively small,making it easier for an industry they specialize in to dominate their economy.But in other cases,it is because industries such as machinery,chemicals,and electrical equipment are much broader and have wider arrays of sub-industries.Table 1:Hamilton Inde

47、x industry leaders,2020 Industry Global Output(Billions)Leading Producer Leaders Share Relative Leader Leaders LQ IT and Information Services$1,900 USA 36.4%Israel 2.89 Computers and Electronics$1,317 China 26.8%Taiwan 8.79 Chemicals$1,146 China 29.1%Saudi Arabia 2.41 Machinery and Equipment$1,135 C

48、hina 32.0%Germany 2.02 Motor Vehicles$1,093 China 24.3%Mexico 3.14 Basic Metals$976 China 45.6%China 2.64 Fabricated Metals$846 China 25.6%Poland 2.12 Pharmaceuticals$696 USA 28.4%Switzerland 7.26 Electrical Equipment$602 China 36.1%Vietnam 2.36 Other Transportation$386 USA 34.5%Singapore 3.52 Compo

49、site Hamilton Index$10,097 China 25.3%Taiwan 2.10 Between 2008 and 2020,more countries have declined in their relative specialization,in part because of faster growth outside the 40 nations covered.Taiwan continued to specialize in advanced industries,almost exclusively because of its growth in comp

50、uters and semiconductors(figure 5).Mexico grew by 9 percentage points,largely due to expansion of its automobile sector.The United States grew slightly,essentially treading waters since it was struck by the China shock of the 2000s.More importantly,rapid growth in the U.S.IT and information services

51、 sector more than offset continued decline in manufacturing.In this sense,strong performance in the IT services sector,including firms such as AWS,Google,and Meta,has masked a continued decline in advanced goods production.Perhaps most surprising is that China ranked last,with its LQ peaking in 2009

52、 and declining by 33 points by 2020.The reason was not necessarily an ineffectiveness of Chinese advanced industry policy,but rather its enormously fast economic growth,which would lead to lower LQs unless advanced industry grew as fast.In fact,Chinas advanced industry output grew by 177 percent fro

53、m 2008 to 2020,more than double the U.S.growth of 78 percent.Only Bangladesh and Vietnam saw greater output growth than did China.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 10 Figure 5:Change in relative national performance in the composite Hamilton Index(LQ difference,20082020

54、)0.170.130.120.110.090.080.080.050.020.00-0.01-0.01-0.03-0.04-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.06-0.07-0.07-0.07-0.08-0.08-0.09-0.10-0.11-0.12-0.12-0.12-0.13-0.15-0.16-0.16-0.19-0.20-0.22-0.25-0.29-0.31-0.33TaiwanDenmarkSaudi ArabiaPolandMexicoTurkeyNigeriaRussiaUnited StatesItalyNetherlandsHong KongBelgiumAustriaU

55、nited KingdomSwitzerlandCanadaIsraelSpainVietnamAustraliaFranceSingaporeIndiaPhilippinesEgyptNorwayBangladeshThailandMalaysiaKoreaPakistanGermanySwedenArgentinaIndonesiaSouth AfricaJapanBrazilChinaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 11 Relative Momentum

56、 LQs and change in LQs are useful indicators,but they dont consider differences in industry size.If a small industrys high LQ(or strong LQ)growth might be completely offset by a large industry with modest LQ.To account for this,ITIF has developed a momentum index.(See figure 6.)This is the sum of th

57、e 10 industries value-added output divided by their GDP,after first multiplying each industrys 2020 output by its 2020 LQ and the percentage change in its LQ since 2008(added to 1).The U.S.momentum score since 2008 was slightly below the global average,with 53 percent of its score coming from IT and

58、 information services.The results are striking.Taiwan far exceeds any other nation,with an index of momentum of 1,503,almost double Singapores score of 836 and more than double Koreas,with all three nations strong scores due principally to computers and semiconductors.Switzerland ranked third,Denmar

59、k fifth,and Belgium ninth with over 70 percent of their momentum coming from the pharmaceutical sector.Almost all of Mexicos strong score was due to the motor vehicle sector,while 40 percent of Germanys score also came from this sector.Meanwhile,75 percent of Israels momentum came from IT and inform

60、ation services.The U.S.momentum score from 2008 to 2020 was slightly below the global average,with 53 percent of its score coming from IT and information services.If this sector were the average size and growth,then it would only account for 29 percent of the U.S.momentum score,which would have fall

61、en to just 79.Chinas momentum score was more than twice that of the United States and was relatively diversified,with basic metals being its strongest industry,followed by machine equipment then computers and electronics.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 12 Figure 6:Ind

62、ex of momentum in all Hamilton industries from 2008 to 20204 1,50383667054639829727026932363837362823175TaiwanSingaporeSwitzerlandKoreaDenmarkMexicoGermanyIsraelBelgiumChinaMalaysiaSwedenThailandPhilippinesJapanAustriaPolandIndiaVietn

63、amRussiaItalyTurkeyWorldNetherlandsUnited StatesSaudi ArabiaIndonesiaFranceUnited KingdomCanadaSpainArgentinaEgyptBrazilAustraliaNigeriaSouth AfricaNorwayBangladeshPakistanHong KongOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 13 Top 10 Producers Hamil

64、ton industries together accounted for more than$10 trillion in global production in 2020,with the top 10 countries accounting for 75 percent of the total.(See figure 7 and figure 8.)China dominated,with one-quarter of global output.For the first time,its output surpassed that of the rest of the worl

65、d outside the top 10 producers.The United States was third as of 2020 with 21 percent of output.While India exceeded Chinas workforce,its advanced industry output was just 13 percent of Chinas.Figure 7:Global output in Hamilton industries by the top 10 producers in 2020($7.6 trillion out of$10.1 tri

66、llion)From the early 2000s to 2019,the rest of the worlds combined output comprised the largest global share,overtaking that position from the United States,which ranked first from 1995 to 2003.Then,following Chinas acceptance into the World Trade Organization(WTO),the U.S.share started to fall sign

67、ificantly until 2010.Since then,it has rebounded,but with the lions share of that growth coming from the IT and information services industry.Leaving IT and other information services out of the equation,the U.S.global share of Hamilton industries fell from around 24 percent in the last half of the

68、1990s to around 15 percent from 2010 to 2020.In contrast,Chinas growth skyrocketed after its WTO accession,from around 6 percent in 2001 to over 25 percent in 2020.In aggregate,Chinas growth matched almost all of Japans decline.Previously,Japan had held about the same global market share as did the

69、United States as of 1995,but its share had dropped to around 7 percent by 2020.Notwithstanding Germanys supposed strong performance(at least until recently),its share fell from around 10 percent in 1995 to just 6 percent in 2020.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 14 Figu

70、re 8:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in Hamilton industries Leaving out IT and other information services,U.S.global share fell from around 24 percent in the last half of the 1990s to around 15 percent from 2010 to 2020.The China Juggernaut As discussed,the amount of advanced ind

71、ustry output globally has been fairly stable as a share of GDP throughout the 25-year period covered in this analysis.As such,when some countries gained share,others lost.From 1995 to 2020,Chinas share of global advanced industry output increased 22 percentage points,from 3 percent to 25 percent.In

72、the same period,OECD nations share fell 27 percentage points,from 85 percent to 58 percent.In other words,Chinas growth came at the expense of the OECD.More recently,from 2017 to 2020,Chinese output increased 17 percent,while the rest of world combined increased just 2 percent.Chinese output in Hami

73、lton Index industries increased by$404 billion in that period,compared with an increase of$187 billion in the rest of world.(See figure 9.)However,when IT and other information services are exempted(an industry in which the United States and Europe are strong and China is weak),the picture is even s

74、tarker.Chinese output grew$363 billion while output in the rest of the world fell by$107 billion.This difference was most profound in the machinery and equipment sector,other transportation,chemicals,and basic metals.The rest of world did outperform China in pharmaceuticals and IT and information se

75、rvices.But that might not last,as the Chinese government has targeted biopharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence as key industries for development.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%5201020152020ChinaRest of the WorldUnited StatesJapanGermanyKoreaIndiaUnited KingdomFranceItalyTaiwanINFORMATION TEC

76、HNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 15 Figure 9:Nominal change in advanced industry output from 2017 to 2020,China vs.the rest of the world When IT and other information services are exempted(an industry in which the United States and Europe are strong and China is weak),the picture is

77、even starker.Chinese output grew$363 billion while output in the rest of the world declined by$107 billion.We can see this zero-sum competition play out in individual nations.ITIF identified the industries and countries where there was the most nominal decline in output from 2017 to 2020,not countin

78、g motor vehicles,which overall saw declines:In Austria and Switzerland,the biggest declines were in electrical equipment(declines of$1.15 billion and$115 million,respectively).During this period,China expanded its output by$42 billion.The nations where the largest loss was in machinery and equipment

79、 were Germany($16.4 billion),Japan($14 billion),Italy($5.0 billion),Brazil($4.1 billion),Argentina($1.8 billion),Mexico($1.5 billion),and the United Kingdom($1.8 billion).China expanded its output by$69.4 billion.In computers and electronics,Denmarks output fell$80 million,Japans fell$6.5 billion,an

80、d Koreas fell$18 billion.Chinas output increased by$64.7 billion.In chemicals,Brazils output fell$8.7 billion,Canada$900 million,Netherlands$1.4 billion,Norway$400 million,Pakistan$600 million,Singapore$5 billion,South Korea$5.6 billion,Germany$5.4 billion,and France$3.8 billion.Chinas output increa

81、sed$35.5 billion.-$200B-$100B$0$100B$200B$300B$400B$500BTotalNon-IT ServicesBasic MetalsMachinery and EquipmentComputers and ElectronicsFabricated MetalsElectrical EquipmentIT and Information ServicesChemicalsPharmaceuticalsOther TransportationMotor VehiclesAll OthersChinaINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNO

82、VATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 16 In basic metals,Japans output fell$17.2 billion and Turkeys$5.3 billion,while Chinas increased$86.4 billion.In fabricated metals,Germanys output fell by$7.1 billion,South Koreas output fell by$4 billion,Frances by$3.4 billion,and Spain and Sweden$1.2 billion,w

83、hile Chinas increased$41.8 billion.Global Market Shares:China vs.the OECD and G7 Between 1995 and 2020,OECD nations global market share dropped by 26.8 percentage points across all Hamilton Index industries.(See figure 10.)Within the OECD,the slope was even more pronounced for the G7 nations that ha

84、ve led the global economy since World War IItheir overall market share in Hamilton industries dropped by 27.9 percentage points.(See figure 11.)By contrast,Chinas overall market share increased by 21.9 points.(See figure 12.)During this period,Chinas gains were strongly correlated with U.S.losses(an

85、 R coefficient of-0.79).The largest declines for the OECD came in basic metals,where the blocs market share dropped by 46.2 percentage points,and electrical equipment,which declined by 40.1 points.It was a similar story for the G7:Its largest declines were in electrical equipment(a decline of 41.5 p

86、oints),followed by basic metals(a decline of 38.8 points).China was the big beneficiary in both cases:Its biggest increases in market share were in basic metals(a 39.5-point increase)and electrical equipment(32.4 points).The total Hamilton Index market share for the OECD declines by 26.8 percentage

87、points.China,by contrast,increased its market share by 21.9 percentage points.Figure 10:OECD global market shares in Hamilton Index industries 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%5201020152020IT and Information ServicesOther TransportationPharmaceuticalsFabricated MetalsMotor VehiclesMachine

88、ry and EquipmentComputers and ElectronicsChemicalsElectrical EquipmentBasic MetalsINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 17 Figure 11:G7 global market shares in Hamilton Index industries To match the advanced-industry share of Chinas economy,U.S.output in Hamilton industries

89、 would need to expand by nearly$1.5 trillion(69 percent).That would require doubling U.S.output in pharmaceuticals,electrical equipment,machinery and equipment,motor vehicles,other transportation,computers electrical and optical,chemicals,basic metals,and fabricated metals.Figure 12:China global mar

90、ket shares in Hamilton Index industries 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%5201020152020IT and Information ServicesOther TransportationPharmaceuticalsMachinery and EquipmentMotor VehiclesFabricated MetalsComputers and ElectronicsChemicalsElectrical EquipmentBasic Metals0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

91、45%50%5201020152020Basic MetalsElectrical EquipmentMachinery and EquipmentChemicalsComputers and ElectronicsFabricated MetalsMotor VehiclesPharmaceuticalsOther TransportationIT and Information ServicesINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 18 It would be one thing

92、 if the growth of Chinas advanced industries were proportional to the growth of its overall economy.But it hasnt been.China has made a strategic decision to outperform in these industries,and it has succeeded in relative terms too:It produced 47 percent more than the global average in 2020,while the

93、 United States produced 13 percent less than average.To appreciate the enormity of that gap,consider that to match the advanced-industry share of Chinas economy,U.S.output in these industries would need to expand by nearly$1.5 trillion(69 percent).This would require doubling U.S.output in pharmaceut

94、icals,electrical equipment,machinery and equipment,motor vehicles,other transportation,computers electrical and optical,chemicals,basic metals,and fabricated metals.Chinas Role in the Growth of Non-OECD Global Market Shares Between 1995 and 2020,global production across all Hamilton Index industries

95、 shifted to non-OECD nations:Their global market share increased by 26.8 percentage points.But the real story was the extent to which China drove that gain.Industry by industry,it was Chinas growth that propelled the lions share of the non-OECD blocs progress.(See figure 13.)The largest of those inc

96、reases occurred in traditional industries such as basic metals(where the block realized a 46.2 percentage point increase in its market share)and chemicals(a 33 percentage-point increase).But thanks to China,the non-OECD bloc also captured substantial increases in market shares in more advanced indus

97、tries such as computers and electronics(a gain of 30.1 percentage points)and motor vehicles(28 percentage points).But the reality is Chinas gain has come at the expense of most of the developing world.Before the Chinese government decided it wanted to dominate manufacturingespecially advanced indust

98、riesmany developing nations,in part because of favorable labor costs,were growing their manufacturing.Since Chinas rise,that growth has slowed and,in some cases,stagnated.Figure 13:Non-OECD change in global market shares(percentage point difference,19952020)055404550Basic MetalsElectrical

99、 EquipmentMachinery and EquipmentChemicalsComputers and ElectronicsFabricated MetalsComposite Hamilton IndexMotor VehiclesPharmaceuticalsOther TransportationIT and Information ServicesChinaOther Non-OECD NationsINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 19 INDUSTRY PROFILES IT a

100、nd Information Services The IT and information services sector comprises an array of IT services industries,including software,cloud computing,Internet services(e.g.,search,social media),and database services.It is a strategically important sector because much of it is high wage,traded across border

101、s,and a key driver of innovation.Globally,the sector grew rapidly,508 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.Indeed,the industry grew to be the largest advanced-technology industry in the world.Despite the importance of IT services throughout the gl

102、obe,about 78 percent of the sectors output was concentrated in OECD countries in 2020,although that was down from 85 percent in 1995.Not surprisingly,given the global leadership position of companies such as AWS,Meta,Google,and Microsoft,the United States led the world in 2020 with 36.4 percent of I

103、T and information services production,up significantly from 26.6 percent in 1995.The next highest-ranking nations were China(9.3 percent,up from 1.9),Japan(6.1 percent,down from 17.2),Germany(6 percent,down from 7.2),and India(4.7 percent,up from 2.8).Notwithstanding the narrative that the EU is lag

104、ging far behind in this industry,its global share(not counting Ireland)is a solid 25.3 percent.Not surprisingly,given the global leadership position of companies such as AWS,Meta,Google,and Microsoft,the United States led the world in 2020 with 36.4 percent of IT and information services production.

105、Countries that saw the most growth in their global share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were the United States(up 9.9 percentage points),China(up 7.4 percentage points),and India(up 2 percentage points).As a group,the EU 10 nations(e.g.,Eastern European nations)started from a small share but saw

106、dramatic increase in percentage growth(340 percent),largely because of their relatively highly skilled IT workforces and modest wage levels,making them a source of globally outsourced IT labor.More recently from 2015 to 2020,the United States experienced the most growth in global share(up 2.8 percen

107、tage points),with China up 1.2 percentage points.Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 11.1 percentage points),followed by France(down 5.1 percentage points).From 2015 to 2020,the United Kingdom saw the biggest loss of global market share,down 1.4 p

108、ercentage points.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 20 Top 10 Producers Figure 14:Global output in IT and related services by the top 10 producers in 2020($1.5 out of$1.9 trillion)Figure 15:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in IT and information service

109、s 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%5201020152020United StatesRest of the WorldChinaJapanGermanyIndiaFranceUnited KingdomItalyCanadaAustraliaINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 21 The picture is similar in some regards when it comes to industrial specialization.The nati

110、on with the highest LQ in 2020 was Israel(2.89).Reflecting a top talent pool,plus spinoffs from its defense force,Israel has a significant number of domestic IT services firms.Also among the high-ranking nations were Sweden(LQ of 2.02),India(1.51),the United States(1.47),the Netherlands(1.46),France

111、(1.32),and Germany(1.31).Notwithstanding the EUs complaints about falling behind America in this industryand its embrace of digital protectionism under the guise of attaining“digital sovereignty”its LQ of 1.22 is just 0.25 points below the U.S.LQ.Lagging nations were all developing countries.Egypt,T

112、hailand,Indonesia,Vietnam,Saudi Arabia,and Mexico all had LQs under 0.2.Notwithstanding Chinas relatively sizeable share of the global market for IT and information services,its LQ was quite low,at 0.54.In fact,of all the industries examined in this report,this is the sector where China is weakest.T

113、hat is because while China has real strengths in hardware and engineering,it is relatively weak in software,systems integration,and business services.That said,China does have its own national digital champions,such as Baidu and Tencent.Of all the industries ITIF examined,this is the sector where Ch

114、ina is weakest.In the wake of the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were Poland(+42 percentage points),the United States(+31),Singapore(+29)Russia(+24),Turkey(+22)and Canada(+18).Overall,OECD nations grew their average LQ by 6

115、 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were Japan(-53 percentage points),India(-47),the United Kingdom(-33),and South Africa(-27).One reason for Japans decline is it was very slow to recognize and respond to the shift to an Internet-driven IT sector.Indias decline is surprising give

116、n its specialization as a global IT offshoring hub.But while its overall IT services output increased significantly,the countrys GDP grew even faster.Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,the Quad nations(Australia,India,Japan,and the United States)far surpass China and the Belt&Road nations in th

117、eir levels of industrial specialization in IT and information services.The former groups LQ averaged 1.39 in 2020,up 10 percentage points from 2008.The latter groups was just 0.61 in 2020,up only 1 percentage point from 2008.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 22 Speciali

118、zation Rankings Figure 16:Relative performance in IT and information services(2020 LQ)2.892.021.511.471.461.321.311.271.251.201.131.131.101.081.030.990.980.970.910.880.780.760.730.610.610.600.550.540.530.530.450.300.220.200.180.170.150.130.110.05IsraelSwedenIndiaUnited StatesNetherlandsFranceGermany

119、NigeriaUnited KingdomSingaporeSwitzerlandBelgiumAustraliaDenmarkJapanCanadaPolandItalyAustriaNorwayKoreaBrazilSpainMalaysiaTurkeyRussiaHong KongChinaArgentinaSouth AfricaTaiwanPhilippinesBangladeshPakistanEgyptThailandIndonesiaVietnamSaudi ArabiaMexicoOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNO

120、LOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 23 Figure 17:Net change in relative performance in IT and related services,19952020(LQ difference)0.760.700.600.580.500.460.440.400.280.250.220.220.190.170.110.060.010.00-0.01-0.02-0.07-0.07-0.11-0.13-0.17-0.23-0.25-0.27-0.29-0.30-0.32-0.39-0.42-0.46-0.4

121、8-0.55-0.59-0.66-0.89-0.94PolandSwedenNetherlandsNigeriaIsraelBelgiumGermanyUnited StatesRussiaDenmarkAustriaTurkeyNorwaySpainKoreaJapanUnited KingdomPhilippinesSaudi ArabiaCanadaItalyMexicoVietnamThailandEgyptIndonesiaAustraliaChinaSingaporeBrazilTaiwanBangladeshSwitzerlandFrancePakistanMalaysiaSou

122、th AfricaHong KongIndiaArgentinaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 24 Figure 18:Net change in relative performance in IT and related services,20082020(LQ difference)0.420.310.290.240.220.180.150.130.090.090.080.080.070.060.040.020.01-0.01-0.02-0.03-0.0

123、3-0.03-0.04-0.04-0.05-0.06-0.07-0.08-0.12-0.12-0.13-0.16-0.18-0.19-0.22-0.26-0.27-0.33-0.47-0.53PolandUnited StatesSingaporeRussiaTurkeyCanadaBelgiumIsraelGermanyChinaPhilippinesAustraliaAustriaSwedenSaudi ArabiaNorwayBrazilItalyEgyptMexicoDenmarkNetherlandsSpainThailandNigeriaIndonesiaFranceVietnam

124、MalaysiaSwitzerlandPakistanBangladeshHong KongTaiwanArgentinaKoreaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomIndiaJapanImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 25 Computers,Electronics and Optical Products This is the computer hardware industry including semiconductors.As su

125、ch,its an industry now fiercely competed over internationally.The sector grew 141 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,but slower than the 174 percent for global GDP.It is a sector that has seen much faster growth in developing nations(especially China),with just 55 percent of the sector

126、s output in OECD countries in 2020,down from 85 percent in 1995.China led the world in 2020 with 26.9 percent of production;significantly up from 2.8 percent in 1995.China now surpasses the U.S.share(24.6 percent,down from 29.1).The next highest-ranking nations were South Korea(8.2 percent,up from 4

127、.1),Taiwan(6.9 percent,up from 5.1 percent),and Japan(5.2 percent,down significantly from 26.6 percent).The Quad lost significant market share in this industry,largely driven by the U.S.s and Japans losses.Its global share is 30.9 percent,down from 56.3 percent.The EU has also lost significant marke

128、t share,concentrated mainly in the EU-17(excluding the EU-10 that joined in 2004).Its global share is 8.9 percent,down from 18.4 percent.Top 10 Producers Figure 19:Global output in computers and electronics by the top 10 producers in 2020($1.1 out of$1.3 trillion)China led the world in 2020 with 26.

129、9 percent of production;up from 2.8 percent in 1995.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 26 Figure 20:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in computers and electronics Countries that saw the most growth in their global share from 1995 to 2020 were China(up 2

130、4.1 percentage points),South Korea(up 4.1 percentage points),Taiwan(up 1.8 percentage points),and Singapore(up 1.2 percentage points).As a group,the Belt&Road nations started from a small share but tripled their share(209 percent),largely because of Chinas growth.More recently from 2015 to 2020,Chin

131、a experienced the most growth in global share(up 1.4 percentage points),with Singapore up 1 percentage point.Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 21.4 percentage points).It is easy to remember in the early 1990s when Japan looked to be a powerhouse

132、 in computers and electronics.But a slowing economy,coupled with mistakes by leading Japanese firms,led to significant decline.As a group,the OECD(down 30.1 percentage points)and the Quad(down 25.4 percentage points)lost significant shares.By contrast,the Belt&Road countries gained a significant sha

133、re(up 31.4 percentage points).The picture is quite different when it comes to industrial specialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was Taiwan,with an LQ of 8.79.Other high-ranking countries were Singapore(6.17),South Korea(4.23),and Malaysia(3.48).By contrast,the United States had an LQ

134、of 0.99 in 2020,down from 1.18 in 1995.By contrast,China had an LQ of 1.56 in 2020,up from 1.18 in 1995.Other nations with a relatively high LQ include Thailand(2.49),the Philippines(2.46),Switzerland(2.14),and Israel(1.76).0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%5201020152020ChinaUnited StatesRest of t

135、he WorldKoreaTaiwanJapanGermanySingaporeSwitzerlandThailandMalaysiaINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 27 Specialization Rankings Figure 21:Relative performance in computers and electronics(2020 LQ)Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage

136、point growth were Taiwan(+87 percentage points),Singapore(+81 percentage points),South Korea(+75 8.796.174.233.482.492.462.141.761.691.561.070.990.880.790.690.510.400.380.380.360.350.350.290.290.280.260.260.250.230.220.210.200.180.180.110.100.070.030.010.00TaiwanSingaporeKoreaMalaysiaThailandPhilipp

137、inesSwitzerlandIsraelVietnamChinaMexicoUnited StatesJapanGermanyAustriaDenmarkUnited KingdomNetherlandsRussiaFranceItalySwedenPakistanIndonesiaPolandTurkeyBangladeshIndiaBrazilAustraliaBelgiumCanadaNorwayArgentinaSouth AfricaSpainEgyptHong KongSaudi ArabiaNigeriaOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMA

138、TION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 28 percentage points),and Vietnam(+46 percentage points).Overall,OECD nations saw a decline in their average LQ by 7 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were Malaysia(-139 percentage points),Thailand(-73 percentage points),t

139、he Philippines(-73 percentage points),Sweden(-70 percentage points),and Japan(-70 percentage points).Figure 22:Net change in relative performance in computers and electronics,19952020(LQ difference)3.111.971.610.980.440.440.410.370.160.080.060.040.020.000.000.00-0.01-0.02-0.03-0.06-0.06-0.09-0.10-0.

140、11-0.12-0.12-0.13-0.18-0.19-0.19-0.19-0.21-0.22-0.23-0.28-0.28-0.31-0.59-0.61-0.95TaiwanKoreaSingaporeVietnamPhilippinesSwitzerlandThailandChinaRussiaGermanyIndiaBangladeshArgentinaSaudi ArabiaEgyptNigeriaDenmarkItalyIsraelAustraliaHong KongTurkeyAustriaSouth AfricaBrazilPolandPakistanNorwayMexicoUn

141、ited StatesNetherlandsSpainBelgiumIndonesiaUnited KingdomFranceCanadaMalaysiaJapanSwedenImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 29 Figure 23:Net change in relative performance in computers and electronics,20082020(LQ difference)0.870.810.750.460.070.070.070

142、.050.000.000.000.00-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.04-0.05-0.05-0.07-0.07-0.08-0.08-0.09-0.11-0.12-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.15-0.19-0.23-0.31-0.43-0.43-0.58-0.70-0.70-0.73-0.73-1.39TaiwanSingaporeKoreaVietnamMexicoTurkeyAustriaRussiaSaudi ArabiaHong KongNigeriaEgyptAustraliaArgentinaItalyIndiaUnited KingdomBangladeshPola

143、ndSouth AfricaSpainDenmarkFranceNorwayBelgiumCanadaPakistanUnited StatesGermanyBrazilNetherlandsIndonesiaIsraelChinaSwitzerlandJapanSwedenPhilippinesThailandMalaysiaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 30 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,the China

144、 and the Belt&Road nations surpassed the Quad and the EU in their levels of industrial specialization in computers and electronics.The former groups LQ averaged 1.31 in 2020,up 15 percentage points since 2008.However,the latter groups LQs had declined to 0.87 and 0.47,respectively.Chemicals The chem

145、icals sector comprises both specialty chemicals and commodity chemicals.Globally,the sector grew slower than world GDP:149 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.About 49 percent of the sectors output was concentrated in OECD countries in 2020,altho

146、ugh that was down dramatically from about 82 percent in 1995.China led the world in 2020 with 29.1 percent of chemicals productionsignificantly up from 3.8 percent in 1995.The next highest-ranking nations were the United States(18.3 percent,down from 23.2 percent),Japan(5.6 percent,down significantl

147、y from 17 percent),and Germany(5 percent,down from 11.1 percent).The Quad(Australia,Japan,India,United States)lost significant market share in this industry,largely driven by the United States and Japans losses.Its global share was 27.6 percent,down from 41.8 percent.The EU also lost significant mar

148、ket share,concentrated mainly in the EU-17(excluding EU-10 that joined in 2004).Its global share was 14.9 percent,down from 31 percent.Top 10 Producers Figure 24:Global output in chemicals by the top 10 producers in 2020($826 billion out of$1.1 trillion)INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|D

149、ECEMBER 2023 PAGE 31 Figure 25:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in chemicals Countries that saw the most growth in their global share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were China(up 25.3 percentage points),India(up 2.1 percentage points),and Saudi Arabia(up 1.4 percentage points).

150、As a group,the Belt&Road nations together started from a share of about 19.6 percent but more than doubled their share(141 percent),largely because of Chinas growth in chemicals.More recently from 2015 to 2020,China experienced the most growth in global share(up 3.2 percentage points),with India up

151、about 0.3 percentage points.Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 11.4 percentage points).As a group,the OECD(down 33 percentage points),the EU(down 16.1 percentage points),and the Quad(down 25.4 percentage points)lost significant shares.By contrast

152、,the Belt&Road countries gained a significant share(up 27.6 percentage points).The picture is quite different when it comes to specialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was Saudi Arabia,with an LQ of 2.41.Other high-ranking countries were Singapore(2.02),Taiwan(1.89),Malaysia(1.72),China

153、(1.69),Thailand(1.63),South Korea(1.63),the Philippines(1.61),and Belgium(1.60).The United States underperformed,with an LQ of 0.74.Hong Kong and Nigeria were the lowest-ranked nations in this industry,each with an LQ under 0.20.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%5201020152020ChinaRest of the World

154、United StatesJapanGermanyIndiaKoreaFranceSaudi ArabiaBrazilItalyINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 32 Specialization Rankings Figure 26:Relative performance in chemicals(2020 LQ)Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in the

155、ir LQs from 2008 to 2020 were Saudi Arabia(+49 percentage points)and Taiwan(+35 percentage 2.412.021.891.721.691.631.631.611.601.181.151.091.051.041.030.950.910.860.830.800.790.780.770.760.740.720.690.670.660.650.640.640.640.500.450.420.340.250.140.02Saudi ArabiaSingaporeTaiwanMalaysiaChinaThailandK

156、oreaPhilippinesBelgiumEgyptNetherlandsGermanyIndonesiaIndiaBrazilJapanTurkeyIsraelVietnamSouth AfricaSwitzerlandBangladeshRussiaDenmarkUnited StatesFranceItalySpainMexicoPakistanPolandAustriaArgentinaCanadaSwedenUnited KingdomNorwayAustraliaNigeriaHong KongOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION T

157、ECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 33 points).Overall,OECD nations saw a decline in their average LQ by 5 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were Singapore(-126 percentage points),Egypt(-59 percentage points),China(-59 percentage points),and Israel(-57 percentage

158、points).Figure 27:Net change in relative performance in chemicals,19952020(LQ difference)0.830.610.440.400.400.300.150.090.080.070.070.060.050.040.040.02-0.01-0.02-0.07-0.08-0.08-0.12-0.13-0.15-0.17-0.20-0.24-0.26-0.30-0.31-0.35-0.40-0.40-0.41-0.44-0.46-0.62-0.66-0.67-1.29Saudi ArabiaTaiwanMalaysiaP

159、hilippinesThailandRussiaDenmarkVietnamAustriaChinaSwitzerlandBrazilBangladeshIndiaArgentinaNigeriaJapanKoreaHong KongItalyIndonesiaAustraliaFranceSwedenSpainUnited StatesGermanyPolandPakistanNorwayIsraelBelgiumNetherlandsMexicoEgyptCanadaUnited KingdomTurkeySouth AfricaSingaporeImprovingRegressingIN

160、FORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 34 Figure 28:Net change in relative performance in chemicals,20082020(LQ difference)0.490.350.250.220.160.110.090.070.040.01-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.04-0.05-0.05-0.06-0.07-0.08-0.12-0.14-0.16-0.19-0.19-0.21-0.22-0.23-0.23-0.24-0.25-0.32-0.37-0.4

161、0-0.45-0.46-0.47-0.57-0.59-0.59-1.26Saudi ArabiaTaiwanDenmarkMalaysiaItalyNigeriaTurkeyJapanAustriaCanadaHong KongPolandUnited KingdomFranceSpainIndiaArgentinaUnited StatesSwitzerlandAustraliaVietnamRussiaIndonesiaBangladeshGermanySwedenThailandBelgiumNorwayPhilippinesPakistanBrazilNetherlandsSouth

162、AfricaKoreaMexicoIsraelChinaEgyptSingaporeImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 35 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,the China and the Belt&Road nations surpassed the Quad,the EU,and NAFTA(the North American Free Trade Agreement bloc)in their levels

163、 of industrial specialization in chemicals.China and the Belt&Road nations LQ averaged 1.33 in 2020,which is unchanged since 2008.However,the Quads,the EUs,and NAFTAs LQs had declined to 0.78,0.77,and 0.72,respectively.Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology The pharmaceutical sector comprises medicinal c

164、hemicals and botanical products.It is a strategically important sector because much of it is high wage,traded across borders,and a key driver of innovation.Globally,the sector grew rapidly223 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.The OECD nations h

165、ave lost market share,from 85 percent in 1995 to 78 percent in 2020.Given the global leadership position of companies such as Amgen,Lilly,J&J,Merck,and Pfizer,the United States led the world in 2020 with 28.4 percent of pharmaceutical production,up slightly from 26.2 percent in 1995.The next highest

166、-ranking nations were China(17.4 percent,up significantly from 3.0),Switzerland(6.3 percent,up from 3.6),and Japan(5.4 percent,down significantly from 18.4).In part because of policy mistakes,the EU lost significant market share in this industry,its global share(not counting Ireland)was 19 percent,d

167、own from 35.6 percent.Countries that saw the most growth in their global share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were China(up 14.4 percentage points),Switzerland(up 2.7 percentage points),and India(up 2.6 percentage points).As a group,the Belt&Road nations together started from a small share but sa

168、w dramatic growth in percentage growth(102 percent),largely because of Chinas growth in pharmaceuticals.More recently from 2015 to 2020,the United States experienced the most growth in global share(up 2.2 percentage points),with China up 2.0 percentage points.Japan experienced the greatest loss of m

169、arket share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 13 percentage points).As a group,the OECD(down 15.9 percentage points)and EU(down 10.5 percentage points)lost significant shares.The EUs loss was concentrated in the EU-17 nations.Top 10 Producers Figure 29:Global output in pharmaceuticals by the top

170、10 producers in 2020($514 billion out of$696 billion)INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 36 Figure 30:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in pharmaceuticals Given the global leadership position of companies such as Amgen,Lilly,J&J,Merck,and Pfizer,the Unit

171、ed States led the world in 2020 with 28.4 percent of pharmaceutical production,up slightly from 26.2 percent in 1995.The picture is quite different when it comes to industrial specialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was Switzerland,with an LQ of 7.26,in large part because of companies

172、such as Novartis and Roche.The nation with the second highest LQ was Denmark(4.23),due to the growth of Novo Nordisk.The United States(LQ of 1.15)was behind other high-ranking nations such as Belgium(3.33),Argentina(1.81),Sweden(1.44),India(1.23),and Singapore(1.17).Most of the lagging nations were

173、developing countries.Hong Kong,Saudi Arabia,Nigeria,and Malaysia all had LQs under 0.2.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%5201020152020United StatesRest of the WorldChinaSwitzerlandJapanGermanyIndiaUnited KingdomFranceBelgiumItalyINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 37 Sp

174、ecialization Rankings Figure 31:Relative performance in pharmaceuticals(2020 LQ)Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were Denmark(+230 percentage points),Belgium(+168 percentage points),and Switzerland(+139 percentage p

175、oints).Overall,OECD nations saw only modest growth in their average LQ by 3 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were 7.264.233.331.811.441.231.171.151.141.010.910.910.870.800.740.730.680.640.630.610.610.530.480.450.420.400.400.370.360.350.340.340.340.320.310.290.180.120.060.01Swit

176、zerlandDenmarkBelgiumArgentinaSwedenIndiaSingaporeUnited StatesIsraelChinaGermanyJapanAustriaItalyUnited KingdomSpainFranceBrazilIndonesiaEgyptKoreaNetherlandsRussiaMexicoVietnamTurkeyBangladeshPakistanPolandCanadaPhilippinesThailandAustraliaTaiwanNorwaySouth AfricaMalaysiaNigeriaSaudi ArabiaHong Ko

177、ngOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 38 Singapore(-112 percentage points),Israel(-89 percentage points),Sweden(-58 percentage points),and the United Kingdom(-48 percentage points).Figure 32:Net change in relative performance in pharmaceutica

178、ls,19952020(LQ difference)4.112.971.880.340.190.140.080.080.040.020.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.04-0.05-0.06-0.06-0.08-0.09-0.10-0.12-0.13-0.14-0.22-0.22-0.23-0.24-0.24-0.25-0.26-0.32-0.36-0.41-0.45-0.54-0.85-0.94-0.96SwitzerlandDenmarkBelgiumRussiaAustriaIndiaUnited StatesGermanyItalyTaiwanSaudi Arabi

179、aNigeriaNorwayPhilippinesThailandVietnamIndonesiaMexicoSingaporeSpainHong KongMalaysiaJapanCanadaBangladeshKoreaEgyptFranceNetherlandsChinaAustraliaPolandArgentinaPakistanBrazilSouth AfricaUnited KingdomSwedenIsraelTurkeyImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 P

180、AGE 39 Figure 33:Net change in relative performance in pharmaceuticals,20082020(LQ difference)2.301.681.390.330.140.090.060.050.040.030.020.020.020.01-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.09-0.10-0.11-0.13-0.15-0.15-0.17-0.17-0.17-0.20-0.21-0.21-0.30-0.48-0.58-0.89-1.12DenmarkBelgiumSwitze

181、rlandRussiaAustriaNigeriaNorwayItalyTaiwanThailandAustraliaPhilippinesIndonesiaSaudi ArabiaHong KongKoreaUnited StatesChinaCanadaVietnamNetherlandsIndiaMalaysiaJapanTurkeyMexicoEgyptSpainPolandArgentinaBangladeshBrazilPakistanFranceSouth AfricaGermanyUnited KingdomSwedenIsraelSingaporeImprovingRegre

182、ssingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 40 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,the Quad and NAFTA far surpassed China and the Belt&Road nations in their levels of industrial specialization in pharmaceuticals.This was primarily due to the United States being part of t

183、he former two groups.The LQ in 2020 averaged 1.06 for NAFTA and 1.08 for the Quad.However,the LQ for the Quad was down 2 percentage points from 2008.The latter groups was just 0.76 in 2020,up 10 percentage points from 2008.Machinery and Equipment The machinery and equipment sector comprises machine

184、tools and mechanical systems including agricultural machines,engines,turbines,and industrial machines.Globally,the sector grew more slowly than global GDP:123 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.About 57 percent of the sectors output was concentr

185、ated in OECD countries in 2020,down significantly from 88 percent in 1995.China led the world in 2020 with 32 percent of machinery and equipment production,up significantly from just 4.4 percent in 1995.The next-highest-ranking nations were the United States(14.6 percent,down from 19.7),Japan(11.6 p

186、ercent,down significantly from 28.8),and Germany(9.2 percent,down from 14.6).The Quad lost significant market share in this industry:29.3 percent,down from 49.7 percent.China led the world in 2020 with 32 percent of machinery and equipment production,up significantly from just 4.4 percent in 1995.Ch

187、ina saw by far the most growth in its global share of the industry from 1995 to 2020,up 27.7 percentage points,with India(up 1.9 percentage points)being a distant second.As a group,the Belt&Road nations together started from a small share but saw dramatic growth in percentage growth(182 percent),lar

188、gely because of Chinas growth in machinery and equipment.Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 17.2 percentage points).As a group,the OECD(down 30.9 percentage points),the Quad(down 20.4 percentage points),and the EU(down 9.6 percentage points)lost

189、significant shares.The EUs loss was concentrated in the EU-17(down 10.2 percentage points).INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 41 Top 10 Producers Figure 34:Global output in machine equipment by the top 10 producers in 2020($923 billion of$1.1 trillion)Figure 35:Top 10 pr

190、oducers historical shares of global output in machinery and equipment The picture is quite different when it comes to industrial specialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was Germany,with an LQ of 2.02.Among the other high-ranking nations were Japan(LQ of 1.96),China(1.86),Austria(1.80),

191、South Korea(1.72),Italy(1.64),and Denmark(1.55).Among the worst-performing developed countries were the United States 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%5201020152020ChinaRest of the WorldUnited StatesJapanGermanyItalyKoreaIndiaUnited KingdomNetherlandsFranceINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATIO

192、N|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 42(0.59),Belgium(0.57),Canada(0.52),Great Britain(0.52),Spain(0.46),Israel(0.41),France(0.40),Norway(0.35),and Australia(0.23).Lagging nations were mostly developing countries:Hong Kong,Nigeria,Egypt,and Saudi Arabia each had an LQ less than 0.20.Specialization Rankings Figure 3

193、6:Relative performance in machinery and equipment(2020 LQ)2.021.961.861.801.721.641.551.371.351.331.211.190.870.720.720.700.670.660.590.570.530.520.520.510.490.460.440.440.410.400.360.350.320.250.240.230.150.110.020.02GermanyJapanChinaAustriaKoreaItalyDenmarkSwedenSwitzerlandNetherlandsTaiwanSingapo

194、reIndiaTurkeyThailandPhilippinesPolandSouth AfricaUnited StatesBelgiumMexicoUnited KingdomCanadaMalaysiaBrazilSpainArgentinaBangladeshIsraelFrancePakistanNorwayRussiaVietnamIndonesiaAustraliaSaudi ArabiaEgyptNigeriaHong KongOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|D

195、ECEMBER 2023 PAGE 43 Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were the Netherlands(+50 percentage points),Taiwan(+28 percentage points),South Korea(+26 percentage points),and Turkey(+26 percentage points).Overall,OECD natio

196、ns saw a decline in their average LQ by 9 percentage points,while the EU saw a decline of 3 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were China(-43 percentage points),Germany(-35 percentage points),Sweden(-30 percentage points),and Norway(-29 percentage points).Figure 37:Net change in

197、relative performance in machinery and equipment,19952020(LQ difference)0.720.700.480.390.350.270.240.240.240.170.160.150.100.100.070.050.030.030.020.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.03-0.04-0.05-0.06-0.08-0.09-0.10-0.10-0.11-0.12-0.12-0.14-0.14-0.21-0.22-0.27-0.29AustriaNetherlandsKoreaItalyJapanGermanyTaiwanTha

198、ilandPhilippinesIndiaArgentinaTurkeyDenmarkMexicoBangladeshSaudi ArabiaIsraelEgyptRussiaChinaSpainNigeriaSingaporePolandBelgiumIndonesiaSwedenHong KongMalaysiaPakistanCanadaFranceVietnamAustraliaNorwaySouth AfricaUnited StatesBrazilSwitzerlandUnited KingdomImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&I

199、NNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 44 Figure 38:Net change in relative performance in machinery and equipment,20082020(LQ difference)0.500.280.260.260.160.140.120.060.050.040.040.020.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.05-0.05-0.06-0.06-0.06-0.07-0.07-0.07-0.08-0.10-0.12-0.12-0.13-0.14-0.15-0.15-0.18

200、-0.20-0.29-0.30-0.35-0.43NetherlandsTaiwanKoreaTurkeyAustriaItalyMexicoThailandPhilippinesSaudi ArabiaArgentinaEgyptNigeriaUnited KingdomHong KongBangladeshSpainIsraelPolandVietnamUnited StatesIndiaCanadaSouth AfricaAustraliaIndonesiaPakistanMalaysiaFranceDenmarkJapanSingaporeSwitzerlandRussiaBelgiu

201、mBrazilNorwaySwedenGermanyChinaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 45 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,the Belt&Road region had an LQ of 1.30,up 11 percentage points from 2008.The EU-17 came in second for industrial specialization in machinery an

202、d equipment.That groups LQ averaged 1.13 in 2020.The Quad had an LQ of 0.83 in 2020,which was down 15 percentage points from 2008.Fabricated Metals The fabricated metals sector comprises the manufacturing of metal parts.It is a strategically important sector because these products often serve as int

203、ermediate goods for manufacturers in advanced industries.Globally,the sector grew slower than world GDP:115 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.About 59.8 percent of the sectors output was concentrated in OECD countries in 2020,down from about 88

204、.1 percent in 1995.China led the world in 2020 with 25.6 percent of fabricated metals production significantly up from just 2.3 percent in 1995.The next highest-ranking nations were the United States(18.5 percent,down from 25.1 percent),Germany(6.9 percent,down from 11.7 percent),and Japan(5.5 perce

205、nt,down from 18.3 percent).The Quad lost significant market share in this industry,largely driven by the United States and Japans losses.Its global share was 27.6 percent,down from 45.4 percent.The EU also lost significant market share,which was mainly concentrated in the EU-17(excludes EU-10 that j

206、oined in 2004).Its global share was 25.7 percent,down from 36.8 percent.China led the world in 2020 with 25.6 percent of fabricated metals productionsignificantly up from just 2.3 percent in 1995.Countries that saw the most growth in their global share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were China(up

207、 23.3 percentage points),South Korea(up 1.5 percentage points),and India(1.5 percentage points).As a group,the Belt&Road nations together started from a share of about 17 percent in 1995 but more than doubled their share(170 percent),largely because of Chinas growth in fabricated metals.More recentl

208、y from 2015 to 2020,China experienced the most growth in global share(up 7.6 percentage points),with Taiwan up about 0.3 percentage points.Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 12.8 percentage points).As a group,the OECD(down 28.3 percentage points)

209、and the Quad(down 17.9 percentage points)lost significant shares.By contrast,the Belt&Road countries gained a significant share(up 28.8 percentage points).INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 46 Top 10 Producers Figure 39:Global output in fabricated metals by the top 10 pr

210、oducers in 2020($620 billion out of$846 billion)Figure 40:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in fabricated metals The picture is quite different when it comes to industrial specialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was Poland,with an LQ of 2.12.Other high-ranking countri

211、es were Italy(1.91),South Korea(1.83),Taiwan(1.80),Austria(1.73),Germany(1.52),and Turkey(1.49).The United States significantly underperformed in this sector,with an LQ of 0.75.That was 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%5201020152020Rest of the WorldChinaUnited StatesGermanyJapanItalyKoreaUnited K

212、ingdomIndiaFrancePolandINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 47 lower than the LQ for Denmark(0.88),Belgium(0.86),Russia(0.82),Great Britain(0.81),India(0.81),France(0.78),Egypt(0.76),and the Philippines(0.76).Nations with a relatively low LQ in this industry include Singap

213、ore(0.32),Nigeria(0.13),and Indonesia(0.11),and Hong Kong(0.03).Specialization Rankings Figure 41:Relative performance in fabricated metals(2020 LQ)2.121.911.831.801.731.521.491.481.361.131.071.061.010.970.960.920.880.860.820.810.810.780.760.760.760.750.720.660.650.640.610.610.590.590.550.540.320.13

214、0.110.03PolandItalyKoreaTaiwanAustriaGermanyTurkeyChinaSwitzerlandVietnamSwedenMalaysiaNetherlandsSpainIsraelJapanDenmarkBelgiumRussiaIndiaUnited KingdomFranceThailandPhilippinesEgyptUnited StatesCanadaSouth AfricaAustraliaArgentinaMexicoSaudi ArabiaBrazilPakistanBangladeshNorwaySingaporeNigeriaIndo

215、nesiaHong KongOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 48 Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were Poland(+56 percentage points)and Turkey(+49 percentage points).Ove

216、rall,OECD nations saw a decline in their average LQ by 11 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were Indonesia(-87 percentage points),Sweden(-49 percentage points),Argentina(-44 percentage points),and Belgium(-40 percentage points).Figure 42:Net change in relative performance in fab

217、ricated metals,19952020(LQ difference)1.290.740.540.520.510.470.460.430.390.300.230.170.160.150.150.110.090.080.010.01-0.02-0.03-0.06-0.08-0.09-0.09-0.10-0.10-0.11-0.12-0.12-0.15-0.17-0.20-0.21-0.22-0.23-0.27-0.28-0.77PolandKoreaTaiwanRussiaChinaTurkeyMalaysiaItalyAustriaVietnamSaudi ArabiaPhilippin

218、esMexicoThailandEgyptGermanyCanadaBangladeshIsraelNorwayNetherlandsPakistanSpainIndiaNigeriaDenmarkArgentinaJapanHong KongSingaporeSouth AfricaBrazilAustraliaFranceBelgiumSwitzerlandSwedenUnited StatesUnited KingdomIndonesiaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 202

219、3 PAGE 49 Figure 43:Net change in relative performance in fabricated metals,20082020(LQ difference)0.560.490.410.350.300.290.180.090.080.060.060.040.040.020.020.00-0.01-0.03-0.04-0.06-0.07-0.08-0.09-0.10-0.12-0.13-0.13-0.16-0.17-0.18-0.21-0.21-0.24-0.28-0.35-0.38-0.40-0.44-0.49-0.87PolandTurkeyChina

220、MalaysiaRussiaTaiwanSaudi ArabiaEgyptAustriaMexicoNetherlandsJapanNigeriaThailandPhilippinesSouth AfricaHong KongUnited KingdomItalyPakistanCanadaKoreaNorwayUnited StatesBangladeshVietnamIndiaIsraelFranceSingaporeAustraliaDenmarkSwitzerlandGermanySpainBrazilBelgiumArgentinaSwedenIndonesiaImprovingRe

221、gressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 50 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,the China and the Belt&Road nations slightly surpassed the EU-27.The former groups LQ averaged 1.29 in 2020,which was up 15 percentage points since 2008.At the same time,the latter grou

222、ps LQ averaged 1.24 in 2020,which was down 13 percentage points since 2008.Motor Vehicles The motor vehicles sector comprises both the assemblers and suppliers of cars and trucks.It has become a more innovative sector due to new developments in electric vehicles and self-driving cars.Globally,the se

223、ctor grew slower than world GDP:130 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.Like many other sectors,production shifted significantly outside the OECD(mostly to China)with 59 percent of the sectors output concentrated in OECD countries in 2020,down fr

224、om 87 percent in 1995.China led the world in 2020 with 24.3 percent of motor vehicles production,up significantly from just 2.5 percent in 1995.The next highest-ranking nations were the United States(14 percent,down from 22),Germany(12.6 percent,down from 14.8),and Japan(10 percent,down significantl

225、y from 24).The Quad lost significant market share in this industry,as its global share was 27.3 percent,down from 47.4 percent.China led the world in 2020 with 24.3 percent of motor vehicles production,up significantly from just 2.5 percent in 1995.Countries that saw the most growth in their global

226、share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were China(up 21.8 percentage points),Mexico(up 2.5 percentage points),and India(up 2.1 percentage points).As a group,the Belt&Road nations together started from a small share but saw dramatic growth in percentage growth(196 percent),largely because of Chinas

227、growth in motor vehicles.More recently from 2015 to 2020,India experienced the most growth in global share(up 0.6 percentage points),with China up 0.4 percentage points.Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 13.9 percentage points).As a group,the OEC

228、D(down 28 percentage points)and the Quad(down 20.1 percentage points)lost significant shares.By contrast,the Belt&Road countries gained a significant share(up 27 percentage points).INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 51 Top 10 Producers Figure 44:Global output in motor ve

229、hicles by the top 10 producers in 2020($839 billion out of$1.1 trillion)Figure 45:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in the motor vehicles industry The picture is quite different when it comes to industrial specialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was Mexico,with an LQ

230、of 3.14,benefiting from the economic integration of North America and vastly lower production wages than for U.S.workers,coupled with relatively high productivity and a weak peso vis-vis the dollar.5 The United States(LQ of 0.57)was significantly behind other high-ranking nations such as Germany(2.7

231、6),South Korea(1.83),0%5%10%15%20%25%30%5201020152020ChinaRest of the WorldUnited StatesGermanyJapanMexicoKoreaIndiaUnited KingdomBrazilItalyINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 52 Sweden(1.74),and Japan(1.69).The United States also ranked behind Great Britain(0

232、.70),Italy(0.66),and Canada(0.62).Lagging nations include developed and developing countries.Australia,Denmark,Israel,Egypt,Nigeria,Saudi Arabia,Singapore,and Hong Kong all had an LQ below 0.20.Specialization Rankings Figure 46:Relative performance in motor vehicles(2020 LQ)3.142.761.831.741.741.691

233、.561.411.321.181.071.060.940.930.910.890.820.750.700.660.650.620.620.580.570.520.470.460.420.370.160.160.110.090.090.080.060.040.040.03MexicoGermanyKoreaThailandSwedenJapanPhilippinesChinaPolandTurkeySouth AfricaIndonesiaIndiaSpainAustriaBrazilTaiwanMalaysiaUnited KingdomItalyVietnamArgentinaCanadaB

234、angladeshUnited StatesPakistanRussiaBelgiumFranceNetherlandsAustraliaEgyptIsraelDenmarkSwitzerlandSaudi ArabiaNorwayNigeriaSingaporeHong KongOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 53 Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest

235、 percentage point growth in their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were Mexico(+152 percentage points),the EU-10(+37 percentage points),and Thailand(+30 percentage points).Overall,OECD nations saw their average LQ decline by 2 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were Brazil(-82 percentage po

236、ints),Indonesia(-71 percentage points),China(-53 percentage points),and Japan(-39 points).Figure 47:Net change in relative performance in motor vehicles,19952020(LQ difference)1.790.980.790.610.520.360.360.350.320.260.230.160.140.130.100.100.090.090.050.040.030.00-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.05-0.06-0.08-0.09-

237、0.12-0.20-0.22-0.27-0.31-0.33-0.33-0.43-0.51-0.85-1.29MexicoGermanyPolandThailandPhilippinesKoreaJapanChinaMalaysiaAustriaRussiaIndiaVietnamTaiwanSwedenArgentinaNetherlandsBangladeshUnited KingdomSaudi ArabiaIsraelSwitzerlandSingaporeNigeriaItalyEgyptNorwayHong KongDenmarkTurkeyPakistanSpainBrazilAu

238、straliaUnited StatesSouth AfricaFranceIndonesiaBelgiumCanadaImproving RegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 54 Figure 48:Net change in relative performance in motor vehicles,20082020(LQ difference)1.520.300.300.280.210.200.200.160.110.100.090.080.070.060.050.040.0

239、40.020.020.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.04-0.06-0.07-0.11-0.12-0.13-0.13-0.18-0.27-0.28-0.28-0.36-0.39-0.53-0.71-0.82MexicoPhilippinesThailandGermanyMalaysiaUnited KingdomPolandTurkeyVietnamIndiaNAFTASwedenTaiwanUnited StatesRussiaSpainSaudi ArabiaIsraelNigeriaWorldItalySwitzerlandHong KongSin

240、gaporeNetherlandsNorwayBangladeshDenmarkEgyptPakistanKoreaAustraliaSouth AfricaCanadaFranceAustriaArgentinaBelgiumJapanChinaIndonesiaBrazilImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 55 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,the EU-27 surpassed China and the B

241、elt&Road nations in their levels of industrial specialization.The former groups LQ averaged 1.24 in 2020,up 13 percentage points from 2008.This was largely due to growth in the EU-10 countries.The latter groups was 1.15 in 2020,up 1 percentage point from 2008.Other Transportation Equipment The other

242、 transportation sector comprises rail,air,and sea transportation equipment.Globally,the sector grew slower than world GDP:157 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.The OECD lost market share,down from 87 percent in 1995 to 68 percent in 2020.Due to

243、 Boeing and Lockheed Martin,coupled with GE and Pratt and Whitney,the United States led the world in 2020 with 34.5 percent of other transportation production,down slightly from 35 percent in 1995.The next highest-ranking nation was China(15.1 percent,up significantly from 1.7),largely boosted by ex

244、pansion in high-speed rail and shipping.Other nations were France(5 percent,up from 4.9 percent),Germany(4.7 percent,down from 5.2),and Japan(4 percent,down significantly from 16.1).The Quad lost significant market share in this industry.Its global share was 43.1 percent,down from 54.1 percent.Count

245、ries that saw the most growth in their global share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were China(up 13.4 percentage points),India(up 2.2 percentage points),and Russia(up 1.6 percentage points).As a group,the Belt&Road nations together(e.g.,Southeast,Central,and Western Asian nations)started from a s

246、mall share but almost doubled their share,largely because of China.More recently from 2015 to 2020,China experienced the most growth in global share(up 3.3 percentage points),with India up 0.9 percentage points.The United States would have likely seen growth,had it not been for production cuts at Bo

247、eing due to difficulties with its 737 jet.But strong production in the last three years suggests that the U.S.LQ will increase.Countries that saw the most growth in their global share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were China(up 13.4 percentage points),India(up 2.2 percentage points),and Russia(u

248、p 1.6 percentage points).Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 12.1 percentage points)in part because of losses in all three major sectors:aerospace,rail,and shipbuilding.As a group,the OECD(down 18.3 percentage points)and the Quad(down 11 percentag

249、e points)lost significant shares.By contrast,the Belt&Road countries gained a significant share(up 14.9 percentage points).INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 56 Top 10 Producers Figure 49:Global output in other transport equipment by the top 10 producers in 2020($305 out

250、 of$386 billion)Figure 50:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in other transportation equipment The picture is quite different when it comes to industrial specialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was Singapore,with an LQ of 3.52.The United States,with and LQ of 1.40,was

251、on par with Taiwan(1.40),but behind Russia(1.77)and France(1.60).While China had an LQ of 0.88 in 2020,that was up from 0.71 in 1995.With Chinas continued production of military aircraft and ships,coupled with its likely significant expansion through COMAC 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%5

252、201020152020United StatesRest of the WorldChinaFranceGermanyJapanUnited KingdomIndiaRussiaItalyKoreaINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 57(Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China,Ltd.)in commercial aviation,its LQ will likely soon be above 1.Lagging nations consist of bo

253、th developed and developing countries.Denmark,Argentina,Indonesia,Nigeria,and Saudi Arabia all had an LQ under 0.20.Specialization Rankings Figure 51:Relative performance in other transportation equipment(2020 LQ)3.521.771.601.401.401.291.271.251.211.161.161.121.111.081.081.041.040.990.940.910.880.7

254、90.720.690.680.620.590.470.430.410.400.390.300.180.140.140.090.070.020.01SingaporeRussiaFranceTaiwanUnited StatesKoreaUnited KingdomTurkeyCanadaIndiaItalyThailandSwedenPhilippinesVietnamIsraelGermanyNorwayMalaysiaSpainChinaPolandAustriaSwitzerlandJapanMexicoAustraliaNetherlandsBangladeshPakistanBelg

255、iumSouth AfricaBrazilDenmarkIndonesiaArgentinaSaudi ArabiaEgyptHong KongNigeriaOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 58 Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were R

256、ussia(+60 percentage points),Turkey(+57 percentage points),and Sweden(+49 percentage points).Overall,OECD nations saw an increase in average LQ by 2 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were South Korea(-116 percentage points),Norway(-52 percentage points),Vietnam(-47 percentage po

257、ints),and Brazil(-45 percentage points).Figure 52:Net change in relative performance in other transportation equipment,19952020(LQ difference)0.650.630.500.410.380.340.320.300.270.160.160.070.060.030.010.00-0.01-0.01-0.03-0.03-0.04-0.06-0.07-0.08-0.09-0.12-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.17-0.18-0.22-0.22-0.24-0.2

258、6-0.31-0.40-0.61-0.69-1.04FranceRussiaTurkeyGermanySwedenSwitzerlandMexicoAustriaMalaysiaSpainChinaTaiwanItalySaudi ArabiaBelgiumPhilippinesThailandNigeriaUnited StatesBangladeshEgyptUnited KingdomIndiaArgentinaSingaporeHong KongIsraelBrazilSouth AfricaVietnamNetherlandsKoreaJapanPolandPakistanIndon

259、esiaCanadaDenmarkAustraliaNorwayImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 59 Figure 53:Net change in relative performance in other transport equipment,20082020(LQ difference)0.600.570.490.400.350.340.340.270.260.250.240.170.110.090.090.050.040.040.040.020.020

260、.020.000.00-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.04-0.04-0.05-0.06-0.07-0.08-0.10-0.11-0.19-0.20-0.24-0.45-0.47-0.52-1.16RussiaTurkeySwedenFranceSwitzerlandMexicoMalaysiaPolandGermanyIndiaTaiwanItalySpainBelgiumSingaporeThailandSaudi ArabiaAustriaPhilippinesUnited KingdomBangladeshCanadaNigeriaWorldHong KongPakistanEgy

261、ptArgentinaIsraelSouth AfricaDenmarkAustraliaAUS,GBR,USAChinaUnited StatesNetherlandsJapanIndonesiaBrazilVietnamNorwayKoreaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 60 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,NAFTA and the Quad surpassed China and the Belt&Roa

262、d nations in their levels of industrial specialization in other transportation.This was largely due to the United States membership in each of the first two groups.The LQs in 2020 averaged 1.35 for NAFTA and 1.22 for the Quad,respectively.However,those were each down 6 and 7 percentage points,respec

263、tively,since 2008.The latter groups LQ also declined to 0.88 in 2020,down 5 percentage points from 2008.Basic Metals The basic metals sector comprises metals commonly used in industry such as copper,aluminum,and iron.It is a strategically important sector because other advanced industries use these

264、metals to manufacture their own products.Globally,the sector grew about the same as world GDP:175 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.About 31 percent of the sectors output was concentrated in OECD countries in 2020,down significantly from 77 per

265、cent in 1995.China led the world in 2020 with a massive 45.6 percent of basic metals productionsignificantly up from 6.1 percent in 1995.This was due in part to rapid increases in metals consumption in China,but also due to massive domestic production subsidies.The next highest-ranking nations were

266、Japan(7.6 percent,down significantly from 25 percent),the United States(7.5 percent,down significantly from 17 percent),and India(6 percent,up from 3.1 percent).The Quad lost significant market share in this industry,largely driven by the United States and Japans losses.Its global share was 21.6 per

267、cent,down from 46.9 percent.The EU also lost significant market share.Its global share was 8.7 percent,down from 23.9 percent.China led the world in 2020 with a massive 45.6 percent of basic metals productionsignificantly up from 6.1 percent in 1995.Countries that saw the most growth in their global

268、 share of the industry from 1995 to 2020 were China(up 39.5 percentage points),India(up 2.8 percentage points),and Russia(1.3 percentage points).As a group,the Belt&Road nations together(e.g.,Southeast,Central,and Western Asian nations)started from a share of 25 percent in 1995 but more than doubled

269、 their share(148 percent),largely because of Chinas growth in basic metals.More recently from 2015 to 2020,China experienced the most growth in global share(up 7.6 percentage points),with Russia and India up about 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points,respectively.Japan experienced the greatest loss of mark

270、et share in the period from 1995 to 2020(down 17.4 percentage points).As a group,the OECD(down 46.1 percentage points)and the Quad(down 25.3 percentage points)lost significant shares.By contrast,the Belt&Road countries gained a significant share(up 36.9 percentage points).INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNO

271、VATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 61 Top 10 Producers Figure 54:Global output in basic metals by the top 10 producers in 2020($772 billion out of$976 billion)Figure 55:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in basic metals The picture is quite different when it comes to industrial sp

272、ecialization.The nation with the highest LQ in 2020 was China,with an LQ of 2.46.Other high-ranking countries were Russia(2.41),India(1.90),Taiwan(1.33),China(1.69),South Korea(1.30),and Japan(1.27).The 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%5201020152020ChinaRest of the WorldJapanUnited StatesIn

273、diaRussiaKoreaGermanyMexicoTaiwanItalyINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 62 United States significantly underperformed in this sector,with an LQ of 0.30.That was lower than the LQ for Canada(0.45),Norway(0.42),and Australia(0.38).Nations with a relatively low LQ in this

274、industry include the United Kingdom(0.18),Denmark(0.15),Israel(0.15),Nigeria(0.08),and Hong Kong(0.01).Specialization Rankings Figure 56:Relative performance in basic metals(2020 LQ)2.642.411.901.331.301.271.191.161.160.970.920.780.660.650.640.610.590.580.580.580.570.540.530.530.510.490.470.450.420.

275、380.300.250.240.200.180.150.150.120.080.01ChinaRussiaIndiaTaiwanKoreaJapanAustriaEgyptTurkeyMexicoVietnamArgentinaSwedenSouth AfricaIndonesiaThailandBrazilBangladeshBelgiumMalaysiaPhilippinesGermanySpainPakistanSaudi ArabiaPolandItalyCanadaNorwayAustraliaUnited StatesNetherlandsSwitzerlandFranceUnit

276、ed KingdomIsraelDenmarkSingaporeNigeriaHong KongOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 63 Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were Saudi Arabia(+24 percentage poin

277、ts)and Spain(+4 percentage points).Overall,OECD nations saw a decline in their average LQ by 24 percentage points.Notable among those that lost ground were Korea(-85 percentage points),Argentina(-69 percentage points),South Africa(-65 percentage points),and Brazil(-60 percentage points).Figure 57:Ne

278、t change in relative performance in basic metals,19952020(LQ difference)0.220.180.140.110.06-0.03-0.04-0.05-0.05-0.06-0.07-0.12-0.12-0.13-0.13-0.16-0.18-0.19-0.23-0.26-0.26-0.29-0.30-0.32-0.33-0.33-0.35-0.37-0.38-0.51-0.52-0.61-0.65-0.65-0.67-0.72-0.79-0.86-0.99-1.22Saudi ArabiaAustriaBrazilRussiaCh

279、inaSingaporeIsraelHong KongVietnamNigeriaBangladeshMexicoJapanThailandPhilippinesMalaysiaTaiwanDenmarkSpainIndonesiaNetherlandsSwitzerlandGermanyUnited KingdomFrancePakistanSwedenEgyptUnited StatesItalyCanadaKoreaNorwayArgentinaPolandTurkeyIndiaBelgiumSouth AfricaAustraliaImprovingRegressingINFORMAT

280、ION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 64 Figure 58:Net change in relative performance in basic metals,20082020(LQ difference)0.240.040.020.020.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.03-0.07-0.09-0.13-0.13-0.14-0.16-0.17-0.17-0.19-0.19-0.19-0.20-0.20-0.21-0.21-0.27-0.29-0.33-0.34-0.35-0

281、.38-0.40-0.41-0.49-0.60-0.65-0.69-0.85Saudi ArabiaSpainNigeriaSingaporeThailandPolandHong KongRussiaSwedenPhilippinesDenmarkIsraelUnited KingdomAustriaNetherlandsMalaysiaItalyBangladeshTaiwanUnited StatesIndonesiaSwitzerlandFranceNorwayMexicoEgyptPakistanIndiaJapanCanadaVietnamBelgiumGermanyChinaAus

282、traliaTurkeyBrazilSouth AfricaArgentinaKoreaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 65 Finally,from a geopolitical perspective,China and the Belt&Road nations surpassed the EU-27,NAFTA,and the Commonwealth(United Kingdom,Canada,Australia,New Zealand)in thei

283、r levels of industrial specialization in basic metals.China and the Belt&Road nations LQ averaged 1.75 in 2020,which was up 10 percentage points since 2008.However,the EU-27s,NAFTAs,and the Commonwealths LQs declined to 0.42,0.34,and 0.30,respectively.Electrical Equipment The electrical equipment se

284、ctor comprises an array of electrical products including batteries,electrical cables,relays,switchgears,and household appliances.Globally,the sector grew more slowly than global GDP:107 percent from 1995 to 2020 in nominal U.S.dollars,compared with 174 percent for global GDP.About 48 percent of the

285、sectors output was concentrated in OECD countries in 2020,down significantly down from 88 percent in 1995.China led the world in 2020 with 36.1 percent of electrical equipment production,up slightly from just 3.8 percent in 1995.The next-highest-ranking nations were the United States(11 percent,down

286、 significantly from 16.1),Japan(9.9 percent,down significantly from 33.9),and Germany(8.1 percent,down from 15.1).The EU lost significant market share:19.1 percent,down from 31.8 percent.China led the world in 2020 with 36.1 percent of electrical equipment production,up slightly from just 3.8 percen

287、t in 1995.China saw the most growth in global market share of the industry from 1995 to 2020,up 32.4 percentage points.Korea(up 2.5 percentage points),India(up 2.1 percentage points),and Indonesia(1.98)also saw modest growth in their global share.As a group,the Belt&Road nations together(e.g.,Southe

288、ast,Central,and Western Asian nations)started from a small share but saw dramatic growth in percentage growth(267 percent),largely because of Chinas growth.Japan experienced the greatest loss of market share from 1995 to 2020(down 24 percentage points).As a group,the OECD(down 40.1 percentage points

289、)and EU(down 12.6 percentage points)lost significant shares,with the EUs loss concentrated in the EU-17(down 14.1 percentage points).INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 66 Top 10 Producers Figure 59:Global output in electrical equipment by the top 10 producers in 2020($47

290、5 out of$602 billion)Figure 60:Top 10 producers historical shares of global output in the electrical equipment industry The picture is different when it comes to industrial specialization.The nations with the highest LQ in 2020 were Vietnam(LQ of 2.36)and South Korea(2.12).The United States,with an

291、LQ of 0.44,was behind other high-ranking nations such as Indonesia(1.98),Germany(1.77),0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%5201020152020ChinaRest of the WorldUnited StatesJapanGermanyKoreaIndiaIndonesiaItalyFranceMexicoINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 67 Austria(1.72),

292、and Japan(1.66).Among the worst-performing developed countries were France(0.43),Belgium(0.36),Great Britain(0.32),Canada(0.26),Israel(0.23),and Australia(0.19).Specialization Rankings Figure 61:Relative performance in electrical equipment(2020 LQ)2.362.122.101.981.771.721.661.321.201.181.061.000.98

293、0.940.890.870.790.770.650.630.570.570.530.530.460.460.440.430.420.370.360.350.320.320.300.260.230.190.050.00VietnamKoreaChinaIndonesiaGermanyAustriaJapanTaiwanThailandPhilippinesSwitzerlandTurkeyPolandItalyIndiaMexicoMalaysiaEgyptNetherlandsSaudi ArabiaSwedenSpainDenmarkBrazilSouth AfricaBangladeshU

294、nited StatesFrancePakistanArgentinaBelgiumRussiaUnited KingdomSingaporeNorwayCanadaIsraelAustraliaHong KongNigeriaOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 68 Since the global financial crisis,the nations with the fastest percentage point growth in

295、 their LQs from 2008 to 2020 were Indonesia(+107 percentage points),Korea(+23 percentage points),and Saudi Arabia(+21 percentage points).Overall,OECD nations saw a decline in their average LQ by 16 percentage points,while the EU-27 saw a decline of 15 percentage points.Notable among those that lost

296、ground were South Africa(-63 percentage points),Austria(-56 percentage points),China(-52 percentage points),and Switzerland(-51 percentage points).Figure 62:Net change in relative performance in electrical equipment,19952020(LQ difference)1.241.230.720.650.510.470.310.290.270.250.220.210.190.150.070

297、.070.060.030.030.020.000.00-0.04-0.05-0.10-0.11-0.11-0.12-0.13-0.18-0.18-0.21-0.23-0.25-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.31-0.46-0.60IndonesiaKoreaVietnamAustriaChinaPolandIndiaSaudi ArabiaPhilippinesThailandMalaysiaMexicoTaiwanEgyptSingaporeBangladeshItalyTurkeyRussiaArgentinaBrazilNigeriaGermanyIsraelSpainHong Ko

298、ngDenmarkPakistanCanadaNorwayAustraliaUnited StatesJapanFranceSwedenUnited KingdomSwitzerlandNetherlandsBelgiumSouth AfricaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 69 Figure 63:Net change in relative performance in electrical equipment,20082020(LQ difference

299、)1.070.230.210.130.130.050.040.020.000.000.000.00-0.04-0.04-0.07-0.07-0.08-0.09-0.10-0.10-0.11-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.14-0.15-0.15-0.16-0.16-0.17-0.17-0.21-0.24-0.30-0.36-0.44-0.51-0.52-0.56-0.63IndonesiaKoreaSaudi ArabiaVietnamTaiwanMexicoEgyptNetherlandsSingaporeMalaysiaNigeriaWorldHong KongIndiaCa

300、nadaPolandTurkeyUnited StatesNorwayBrazilUnited KingdomPhilippinesBangladeshIsraelItalyDenmarkPakistanThailandFranceRussiaAustraliaJapanSpainArgentinaBelgiumGermanySwedenSwitzerlandChinaAustriaSouth AfricaImprovingRegressingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 70 Finally,f

301、rom a geopolitical perspective,the Belt&Road region had an LQ of 1.56,up 14 percentage points from 2008.The EU-10 nations(joined EU in 2004)came in second for industrial specialization in electrical equipment.That groups LQ averaged 1.43 in 2020.The LQ for the remaining EU-17 was just 0.88 in 2020,d

302、own 17 percentage points from 2008.TOP 10 PRODUCER PROFILES This section examines the top ten nations in terms of aggregate advanced industry output in 2022,in order of output.No.1:China China:seeking and gaining global dominance in all advanced industries.As recently as 2011,U.S.advanced industry o

303、utput exceeded Chinas.Now China leads the United States and the world.Figure 64:Hamilton Index industries shares of Chinas economy In terms of industry strength,China is above average on all industries except other transportation(which it is trying to fix with the development of COMACs jet aircraft

304、business)and IT and information services(China remains weak in software).(See figure 65.)Chinas strongest industry is basic metals,including steel production,an industry China has long and massively subsidized,where it has an LQ of 2.64.6 It is also strong in electrical equipment,machinery equipment

305、,chemicals,and computers and electronics.From the early 2000s until 2020,the LQs for all the industries declined,except for IT and information services(due to growth of companies such as Baidu and Alibaba)and fabricated metals.As noted,this is because of the incredibly fast growth of the Chinese eco

306、nomy.It is striking that since President Xi put in place his Made in China 2025 plan,Chinas advanced Chinas Index,17.4%Global Index,11.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%5201020152020Other TransportationPharmaceuticalsIT and Information ServicesFabricated MetalsElectrical EquipmentMotor VehiclesChemicalsC

307、omputers and ElectronicsMachinery and EquipmentBasic MetalsINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 71 industry LQ in the Made in China 2025-targeted sectors grew 30 percent more slowly between 2015 and 2020 than between 2010 and 2015.Figure 67 shows the net improvement or reg

308、ression in relative performance of Chinas Hamilton industries since 1995,scaled to their output in 2020.Figure 65:Chinas relative performance in Hamilton Index industries(2020 LQ)Figure 66:Chinas relative historical performance in Hamilton Index industries(LQ trends)Each of the 10 industries can be

309、classified by its LQ,change in LQ,and industry size.(See figure 67.)Industries in the upper right quadrant(an LQ above 1 in 2020,and a positive change 2.642.101.861.691.561.481.471.411.010.880.54Basic MetalsElectrical EquipmentMachinery and EquipmentChemicalsComputers and ElectronicsFabricated Metal

310、sComposite Hamilton IndexMotor VehiclesPharmaceuticalsOther TransportationIT and Information ServicesOver-performingUnderperforming0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.05201020152020Basic MetalsElectrical EquipmentMachinery and EquipmentChemicalsComputers and ElectronicsFabricated MetalsComposite Ha

311、milton IndexMotor VehiclesPharmaceuticalsOther TransportationIT and Information ServicesINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 72 in LQ from 2008 to 2020)are strong and fast growing.Industries in the lower left quadrant are the opposite.China has only one industry in the“str

312、ong,growers”quadrant:fabricated metals,with output of$216 billion.It has one industry in the“weak,growers”quadrant:IT and information services.Relative to the United States and the rest of world,Chinas IT sector is weak.Surprisingly,given the strength of the Chinese shipbuilding and rail industries,

313、this industry is in the“weak,declining”quadrant.However,given that Chinese domestic airlines will be forced to purchase COMAC airplanes,at least for domestic travel,we can expect to see that industry move to the left and top in the next decade.Since President Xi put in place his Made in China 2025 p

314、lan,Chinas advanced industry LQ in the Made in China 2025-targeted sectors grew 30 percent more slowly between 2015 and 2020 than between 2010 and 2015.The remainder of Chinas industries are in the“strong,decliners”category.This is not to say that these industries are not growing,its that they are n

315、ot growing as fast as the overall Chinese economy.Overall,Chinas momentum score is 257,lower than leaders such as Taiwan,Singapore,Switzerland,and Korea,but more than twice as much as that of the United States.Figure 67:Chinas net performance in Hamilton industries since 2008(scaled to 2020 output)B

316、asic Metals,$445BElectrical Equip.,$217BMachine Equip.,$364BChemicals,$334BComp.&Elec.,$353BFab.Metals,$216BMotor Vehicles,$266BPharma.,$121BOther Transport.,$58BIT&Info.Svcs.,$176B0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.62020 LQLQ Change,20082020RegressingOver-performingUnderperformingIm

317、provingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 73 No.2:United States The United States used to be great;and mostly thinks it still is.The industries in the Hamilton Index together accounted for 10.3 percent of the U.S.economy in 202013 percent less than the global average of

318、11.8 percent(see figure 71).And that share fell from 1995 to the end of the 2000s,and has slowly risen since,although all that rebound has been in one sector:information and communication services.Leaving out this sector,U.S.output fell from 7.6 percent of the U.S.economy in 2010 to 7 percent in 202

319、0.Figure 68:Hamilton Index industries shares of the U.S.economy In terms of overall global share,U.S.output fell from a peak of 27.8 percent in 2000 to 21.5 percent in 2020.However,from 2011 to 2020,that share increased from a low of 18.6 percent,but this was all because of IT services growth.When l

320、eaving out this sector,U.S.global share peaked in 2000(at 27.6 percent),just as offshoring to China began to take off.However,after reaching a low of 16.9 percent in 2016,it gradually grew to 18.0 percent in 2020.(See figure 69.)As such,the U.S.strength in IT services masks a real,structural weaknes

321、ses in advanced manufacturing.Advanced industry production minus IT and other services fell from roughly 28 percent in the early 2000s to around 18 percent by the end of the 2010s.Global Index,11.8%U.S.Index,10.3%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%5201020152020Electrical EquipmentBasic MetalsOther Transp

322、ortationMotor VehiclesFabricated MetalsMachinery and EquipmentPharmaceuticalsChemicalsComputers and ElectronicsIT and Information ServicesINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 74 Figure 69:Americas global share with and without IT Figure 70:Americas LQ with and without IT 0

323、%5%10%15%20%25%30%5201020152020With ITWithout IT0.00.20.40.60.81.01.25201020152020With ITWithout ITINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 75 The United States has just three industries with an LQ of above 1:IT and information services(1.47);other transp

324、ortation(1.40),which reflects U.S.strength in aerospace;and pharmaceuticals(1.15).The computer and electronics industry is essentially at 1(0.99).The other sectors are all 0.75 or below.Figure 71:Americas relative performance in Hamilton Index industries(2020 LQ)Only two industries saw an increase i

325、n their global LQ since 2008:IT and other information services(+27 percent)and motor vehicles(+12 percent).The former is because of the strength in the U.S.software sector and the light-touch regulatory system adopted by the United States(compared with the more heavily regulated EU system and the mo

326、re hardware-focused East Asian system).With the across-the-board systematic attacks on large IT firms and a push by the federal government to restrict and regulate the industry,strength in Americas leading advanced industry sector is under threat.The United States also gained in motor vehicles,but t

327、hat was only because of the beginning of the steep cyclical decline in 2008.Its 2020 LQ is below 2007 levels.With the across-the-board systematic attacks on large IT firms and a push by the federal government to restrict and regulate the industry,strength in Americas leading advanced industry is und

328、er threat.In contrast,the United States significantly deindustrialized since 1995 in other industries,including basic metals(-56 percent);motor vehicles(-37 percent);electrical equipment(-32 percent);fabricated metals(-27 percent),machinery and equipment(-26 percent),and chemicals(-21 percent).Compu

329、ters and electronics,which include semiconductors,saw a 16 percent decline in LQ.Despite the fracking revolution and the decline in natural gas prices,the U.S.chemical industry continued to decline,with its LQ falling from 0.89 in 2010 to 0.74 in 2020.1.471.401.150.990.870.750.740.590.570.440.30IT a

330、nd Information ServicesOther TransportationPharmaceuticalsComputers and ElectronicsComposite Hamilton IndexFabricated MetalsChemicalsMachinery and EquipmentMotor VehiclesElectrical EquipmentBasic MetalsOver-performingUnderperformingINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|DECEMBER 2023 PAGE 76 F

331、igure 72:Americas relative historical performance in Hamilton Index industries(LQ trends)The United States had only one industry in the“strong growth quadrant”(an LQ above 1 and an increase in LQ since 1995):IT and information services.Fortunately,it is also Americas largest advanced industry sector

332、.The United States has two sectors in the“strong declining”quadrant,other transportation and pharmaceuticals.The pharmaceuticals industry is strong because of the optimal mix of policy(strong patent protection,robust National Institutes of Health funding,effective drug approval,and reasonable drug p

333、ricing policies).All those factors are now under threat from federal policy.It also is declining because of the movement of drug production offshore.Other transportation is high but has been falling in part from the challenge from Europes Airbus and,in the future,Chinas unfair COMAC competition.The motor vehicles industry is in the“weak,growing”quadrant,but that is only because 2008 was such a wea