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1、uncommon senseTMDecember 2023The next wave of Digital MarketplacesOC&Cs second annual Marketplaces report02|OC&C The Next Wave of Digital MarketplacesIntroductionOC&CS ANNUAL MARKETPLACES REPORT HAS CONDUCTED A MAJOR STUDY OF THE WORLDS TOP 250 DIGITAL MARKETPLACES BY GROSS MERCHANDISE VALUE(GMV)TO
2、UNDERSTAND HOW THEY HAVE BEEN EVOLVING AND GROWING IN A POST-PANDEMIC ERA.Bottom-up study looking at the growth of the top 250 marketplaces in key categories1 globally,from Amazon and Alibaba(representing over$500bn each in consumer spend),to a broad set of emerging marketplaces with less than$100m
3、in GMV OC&C have assessed market size and growth at an overall level,as well as trends by vertical and geography The report follows on from our previous research on marketplaces and the second-hand marketplace Sources include digital commerce 360,ecommerce DB,global data and emarketer We cover consu
4、mer facing product-based categories including ticketing,travel and food delivery.We exclude auto and real estate as well as broader service based marketplaces(e.g financial services,tradespeople,education)For more detail on the optimisation of your online proposition,see our latest Retail Propositio
5、n IndexOC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marketplaces|031.MARKETPLACES CONTINUE TO GROW STRONGLY Marketplaces represent$4.1tn in annual gross consumer spend(GMV)as of 2022 across first-party(1P)and third-party(3P)sales($1.7tn for Global ex.China).The vast majority of this sits in third-party sales worth
6、$3.4tn Since 2019,marketplaces have grown from$2.4tn to$4.1tn in spend,adding$1.6tn in total consumer spend($0.7tn for Global ex.China),with spend growing in almost every category and now accounting for c.60%of eCommerce spend1.Includes Books,Food Delivery,Ticketing,Travel/Vacation,Consumer Electron
7、ics,Furniture/Homeware,Home Appliances,Clothing&Accessories,DIY/Gardening/Pets,Personal Care,Grocery and Other2.Ecommerce direct is first hand onlySource:GlobalData,Euromonitor,eMarketer,Digital Commerce 360,Statista,ECommerceDB,PwC Media Outlook,Desk Research,OC&C analysis20216,01520226,59320194,12
8、820204,92317.619.6Marketplace 3PMarketplace 1PDirect Ecommerce216%10%27%8%24%9%23%2,066(50%)1,673(41%)389(9%)2,551(52%)1,840(37%)532(11%)3,143(52%)2,240(37%)632(11%)3,447(52%)2,463(37%)683(10%)10%All Marketplaces15.9Consumer Spend in Selected Categories1($tr):Online Share of Total Consumer Spend:201
9、9-21 CAGR2021-22 CAGR15.633%34%27%32%Marketplace 1P represents sales on a marketplace where the platform is the retailer who stocks the product Marketplace 3P represents sales from third party retailers selling their own products to consumers+19%+22%+10%TOTAL GMV IN ESTABLISHED MARKETPLACE CATEGORIE
10、S (GLOBAL INCLUDING CHINA)1,2019-22($BN)Key insights90Books33%(30)33%(30)33%(30)Source:Euromonitor,Statista,GlobalData,ECommerceDB,Digital Commerce 360,Art Basel/UBS,OC&C analysisOnline MarketplacesOnline(Non Marketplace)OfflineFocus Categories3P Marketplace Share:6-8%/Online Total Share:17-18%20%(1
11、90)6%(50)74%(710)952Furniture/Homeware(Excl.Appliances)95%(6,840)5%(350)7,220Grocery68%(1,070)23%(370)9%(140)1,557Clothing&Accessories34%(520)15%(230)51%(780)1,536Travel27%(240)27%(230)46%(400)869Consumer Electronics320Home Appliances60%(190)13%(40)27%(90)220Food Delivery13%(30)26%(60)61%(140)87Tick
12、eting18%(14)48%(40)34%(30)866DIY/Garden/Pets78%(680)5%(40)17%(150)89%(1,740)8%(160)3%(50)1,954Personal Care94%(1,360)5%(70)1%(20)1,447Vehicle PurchaseOnline marketplaces make up a varied share of overall spending depending on the category from mature categories today like consumer electronics,books
13、and food delivery that are highly suited to the marketplace model,to clothing&accessories,personal care and grocery which have historically been less penetrated,but represent an exciting opportunity for marketplaces to continue to grow share in huge$1tn+markets.04|OC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marke
14、tplacesTOTAL GLOBAL CONSUMER SPEND(1P AND 3P)BY CHANNEL AND SEGMENT (EXCL.CHINA),2022($BN)OC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marketplaces|05 The generalist model operated by the likes of Amazon has been dominant for more than a decade;we are now seeing the rapid growth of specialist models such as vertic
15、al-focused,secondhand and hyperlocal marketplaces,particularly outside of China Specialist marketplaces of all forms have outgrown generalists by a factor of 1.6x in terms of 3P GMV(36%pa vs 23%pa between 2019-22,Global ex China)This growth has fuelled a rise of mid-sized marketplaces;since 2019,8 m
16、arketplaces have grown to become larger than$10bn in 3P GMV and 34 marketplaces growing to become larger than$1bn in 3P GMV,with more than half of these vertical specialists This trend is most prevalent in Europe,which has the most fragmented marketplace landscape today and consumers who are highly
17、familiar with specialist and vertical-focused models of direct retail ecommerce which are much more common than other markets The shape of this growth has been influenced by differences in category-level growth;though most categories saw significant growth through Covid,some have sustained strong gr
18、owth post-Covid(e.g.apparel and grocery)vs those that have normalised towards pre-Covid rates(e.g.books,furniture and homewares)growth categories in particular represent an opportunity for specialist players to expand market share as consumer demand continues to grow Generalist marketplaces remain d
19、ominant however(c.70%share of all 3P GMV in 2022)and despite growing GMV more slowly,have been able to grow revenues ahead of GMV through strong take-rate growth of 30-50%over the last 5 years,supported by expanding offer of value-add services Regional insurgents are also taking share from market le
20、aders often taking advantage by undercutting the high,and increasing,seller fees that the leading generalists are charging Some categories have seen marketplace penetration decline post-Covid;DIY/Garden is an example where consumers have had a strong preference to return to physical retailers a tren
21、d which could limit marketplaces ability to grow GenAI is likely to have a profound impact on marketplaces;providing incumbents the opportunity to enhance the consumer experience,but also posing a potential risk of disruptors taking share or disintermediating the customer journey(e.g.in search)2.SPE
22、CIALIST MODELS ARE OUTGROWING GENERALISTS3.GENERALISTS GMV GROWTH SLOWS BUT TAKE RATES GROW 4.MARKETPLACES FACE SEVERAL RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIESBetween 2019-22,34 marketplaces have grown to become larger than$1bn in 3P GMV,with more than half of these vertical specialistsSpecialist modelsSource:Eurom
23、onitor,Statista,GlobalData,ECommerceDB,Digital Commerce 360,Art Basel/UBS,OC&C analysis06|OC&C The Next Wave of Digital MarketplacesVertical-focused,second-hand and hyper-local marketplaces,increasingly provide sellers with new avenues for growth,and to access consumer demand.Specialist marketplaces
24、 outside China have grown rapidly(+36%pa 3P GMV growth 2019-22 compared to 23%pa for generalists),taking third party GMV from$45bn to$113bn and share of the total 3P GMV from 8%to 11%2019-22.201920228%Share of Total 3P GMV,Global Ex China:11%+151%(+36%pa)$45bn$113bnSPECIALIST THIRD PARTY GMV GROWTH,
25、$BNGlobal ex China,ex Food Delivery,Ticketing,TravelDIGITAL MARKETPLACES ARE INCREASINGLY TAKING ON MULTIPLE FORMS,MOVING BEYOND THE GENERALIST OR“AGGREGATION”MODEL THAT HAS DOMINATED TO DATE,TO SPECIALIST MODELS.THERE ARE 3 STAND-OUT BUSINESS MODELS EMERGING:Vertical-focusedThese marketplaces provi
26、de a more engaging browsing experience for buyers adapted to specific vertical(e.g.fashion),better curated inventory,and a more appealing store front for sellers.They also offer tailored value-add services for the category(e.g.warranties for electronics,or 2-person delivery for furniture).Vertical m
27、arketplaces(particularly in apparel and luxury goods)also unlock adoption through premium brands who would not be willing to list on generalists.The scale of vertical specialists(5 players with$10bn 3P GMV)is now substantial enough for them to be able to compete with generalists in terms of internat
28、ional coverage and value-add services;something that was historically a differentiator for generalists is no longer the case.OC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marketplaces|07EXAMPLES OF VERTICAL FOCUSED SPECIALISTSClothing&AccessoriesElectronicsFurniture/Home/DIYHouzz has grown successfully from a desig
29、n and inspiration based site to a$14bn GMV marketplace acting as a site for search and discovery of home design and supported by tailored fulfilment options(e.g.2-person)that generalists struggle to offer.Second-hand Second-hand and refurbished marketplaces have also grown rapidly these models have
30、benefitted from a vertical focus as well,and have also transformed the buyer and seller experience through several key steps:Building trust through condition grading,product authentication and warranties Growth of C2C by simplifying the listing journey to make it easy for consumers to list Managemen
31、t of the transaction,payment and returns to maximise ease for buyers08|OC&C The Next Wave of Digital MarketplacesEXAMPLES OF SECOND-HAND SPECIALISTSC2C Models(Apparel)Refurbished(Electronics)Auction ModelsRefurbed has been able to grow rapidly in refurbished electronics through a combination of low
32、fees for sellers,a high share of grade A listed inventory and easier processing of inventory for sellers than is possible on Amazon (e.g.batch inventory upload and price management).Hyper-local marketplacesHyper-local marketplaces have also been growing in categories where proximity and fast deliver
33、y is required such as grocery or food delivery,or where there are practical logistical benefits,such as furniture and homewares.A recent surge in value-add services like transaction support,has enabled rapid top line growth grocery marketplaces in the top 250(ex China)have grown by almost 4x between
34、 2019 and 2022.Despite this,the economics of these marketplaces remains challenging even at scale with very few reaching consistent profitability.OC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marketplaces|09EXAMPLES OF HYPER-LOCAL MARKETPLACESFood&DrinkGroceriesKurly has built its rapid growth on a unique propositi
35、on of delivering fresh,high-end groceries by next morning for orders placed the night before.Its customers can order a variety of high-end and artisanal market-style produce from a broad set of sellers and it has been particularly popular with the growing South Korean middle classes.Differences in c
36、ategory growth during and post-CovidWe saw almost all categories increase marketplace penetration throughout the pandemic,but the shape of growth has differed as we came out of this in 2022:1.Apparel and consumer electronics sustained marketplace penetration growth:Consistent increase in marketplace
37、 penetration from 2019 through to 2022 despite a reversion in online penetration 2.Grocery and personal care rapid growth in marketplace penetration through Covid:Rapid growth in marketplace penetration particularly in 2022 as marketplace usage becomes more widely adopted having been low pre-Covid3.
38、Books,furniture and homewares growth through Covid followed by a reduction in marketplace penetration as usage normalises towards a longer-term trajectory:Growth in penetration 2019-21,with some reversion back to pre-Covid trajectory in 2022 as physical stores re-open and trend in second-hand tradin
39、g(from home clear outs etc)that peaked during 2020 and 2021 fades For some categories,the sustained growth in marketplace penetration presents a signifcant opportunity for specialist models to continue to grow by allowing them to continue to grow scale without needing to compete head-to-head with th
40、e larger generalists,as consumer demand grows and the overall“pie”expands.10|OC&C The Next Wave of Digital MarketplacesTHE GROWTH OF THESE SPECIALISTS MODELS(AND GENERALISTS TOO)HAS BEEN HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIFFERENCES IN GROWTH ACROSS CATEGORIES DURING COVID AND INTO 2022.CAGR CHANGE IN%MARKETPLA
41、CE AND ONLINE PENETRATIONMarketplace Penetration Online Penetration--22Sustained Growth in Marketplace PenetrationClothing&Accessories+6%+8%+19%-6%Consumer Electronics+8%+11%+15%-9%Grocery1%10%+32%-2%Food Delivery3%0%+12%-7%Reversion towards Pre-Covid Marketplace PenetrationF
42、urniture/Homeware7%-3%+20%-6%Books20%-10%+6%1%Marketplace Penetration Declined During CovidPersonal Care-4%10%+21%-2%DIY/Garden/Pets-11%-10%+37%-3%5%0-5%0-5%5%91%89%87%85%9%11%13%15%Marketplaces%share of total online ecommerce GMVTOTAL THIRD PARTY RETAIL GMV IN ESTABLISHED MARKETPLACE CATEGORIES,202
43、2($BN)OC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marketplaces|15Risks to marketplace leadersCASE STUDYShopee takes on Mercado Libre in Latin America Shopee is a prime example of an insurgent entering the Latin American market and competing with a generalist marketplace:Mercado Libre.Shopee,a Singaporean headquar
44、tered marketplace initially grew in Asia before subsequently entering Latin America;growing from c.1%to 8%ecommerce market share in Brazil 2019-21(vs Mercado Libre share of c.17%),with its active monthly app users overtaking Mercados(47m monthly active users vs 32m for Mercado).By prioritising both
45、the user and seller experience and improving standards of customer service,Shopee has been able to target both large and smaller sellers,who are dissatisfied with Mercado due to increased take rates,amongst other things.Shopee has also leveraged its expansive Asian seller base to accelerate inventor
46、y and build traction with a competitive proposition.THE SURGE IN TAKE RATES FOR LARGE-SCALE MARKETPLACES,HAS OPENED UP AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALLER-SCALE MARKETPLACES TO UNDERCUT THEIR COMPETITORS BY OFFERING A MORE APPEALING PROPOSITION WITH LOWER TAKE RATES AND BETTER SERVICE LEVELS FOR SELLERS.Mont
47、hly Web&App traffic(Quarterly average)Million usersShopee e-commerce market share in Brazil,EUR bn and%of e-commerce marketShopee NPS among Brazilian consumers,based on Bank of AmericaShopee has achieved excellent growth of 100%p.a.in app and Web trafficAchieving 8%share through low ticket segments
48、andpoaching sellersShopee has quickly gained critical buyer trust,and needs to invest in logistics to win in the marketWeb monthly deduplicated audienceApp MAU50403020100Q4 2020Q4 2021+112%+153%5432021+1,469%+47%Shopee revenue and market share in Brazil 0.1bn(1%)1.7bn(8%)2.6bn(8%)ShopeeMe
49、rcado LibreAmazonAmericanasAli ExpressCasas Bahia646158484635Source:Euromonitor,SensorTower,SimilarWeb,Bank of America,Bloomberg,OC&C analysisOne thing is clear:marketplaces will become GenAI enabled with time.Were already seeing the development of GenAI based search and discovery with existing mark
50、etplaces,which enables more flexible searches and sophisticated matching than traditional search and filter.MORE GENERALLY,GENAI WILL TURBOCHARGE EXISTING MARKETPLACE MODELS:GenAI Enhancing Marketplaces or potential risk?16|OC&C The Next Wave of Digital MarketplacesImproved sales effectiveness from
51、better targeting and analyticsBetter post-transaction managementImproved targeted marketing and more relevant content to attract buyersMore powerful GenAI based discovery and search based on broad set of unstructured customer inputsPotential for value-add tools/services to be improved significantly
52、by AI and justify greater monetisationIncumbents able to deliver better buyer/seeker response from improvementsin matching&recommendationAutomated content creation including listings,editorial,inspiration and review contentMarketplaceGrowthFlywheelDrive growth and sellerstransactionDrive buyer visit
53、sof sellers/listersMonestise buyerConversion toABCDPOTENTIAL ENHANCEMENTS TO MARKETPLACE MODEL FROM GENAIIT IS THE QUESTION OVERSHADOWING EVERY SECTOR HOW WILL GENAI CHANGE THE GAME?GenAI Enhancing Marketplaces or potential risk?OC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marketplaces|17SearchdescriptionFuture of
54、LLM usageExampleInformational searchNavigationalsearchTransactionalsearch Seeks specific information or answers.Broad search for knowledge or understanding.Seeks a specific website or online destination.Direct search for a particular brand or resource.Seeks to perform a transaction or engage in an a
55、ctivity.Searches related to buying,booking,or other transactional actions.Informational search will largely become LLM(e.g.,ChatGPT).LLMs offer concise,targeted responses.LLMs unlikely to play significant role as no benefit when users have a specific.website/destination in mind.Future of LLMs for tr
56、ansactional search is unclear.LLMs inform transaction searches;but integration with sellers/retailers required.LLM not only provides a better user experience but may also increase Googles monetisation.Full AI integrationNo changeMoving towards AI(unclear on future use)IMPACT OF LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS
57、(LLMS)BY SEARCH TYPEGenAI will also play a role in disrupting the existing marketplace model.The major battle will centre around ownership of customers transaction-based search(searches with an intent to transact)and where this occurs.Scale generalist marketplaces have historically dominated in this
58、 area but this may come under threat from increasingly powerful GenAI based search and discovery,particularly as search engines invest here.GenAI is also expected to reduce switching costs for existing sellers as it enables the rapid synthesis and integration of back-end technologies,pricing and met
59、adata,reducing reliance on any single marketplace and accelerating any shift to new models.Furthermore,GenAI will equalise visibility and discoverability across large and smaller sellers.This may have significant ramifications for buyers,sellers and the marketplaces serving them.Source:Desk Research
60、,OC&C analysisWhat do you do about it?18|OC&C The Next Wave of Digital MarketplacesInsurgent Marketplace Find a specialism that resonates with consumers whether thats becoming a niche hyper-vertical player,offering a specific price-segment or bringing a proposition to a less“mature”market.Brands are
61、 also increasingly taking a multichannel approach,opening doors to potentially build third party relationships;an important opportunity to capitalise on to continue to grow inventory breadth.Investors There are clear pockets of disruption/fragmentation where emerging players are growing quickly part
62、icularly in Latin America and Asia Pacific where there is a lower level of marketplace dominance and ecommerce penetration giving insurgents a clearer opportunity to grow rapidly with the right proposition.Vertical-focused marketplaces have a long way to go in terms of growth trajectory in verticals
63、 such as apparel,segments such as second-hand and emerging business models like B2B.Dont discount growth of the market leaders they are still able to grow through ancillary revenue and take rate growth.The impact of GenAI is yet to play out but presents significant opportunities and risks.Scale Mark
64、etplace Value add services and take rate growth are the engines of growth as volume growth slows and marketplaces mature give third party sellers reasons to keep spending more to drive sales will be key.Stay close to the evolution of AI-driven transactional search and invest to remain competitive.Br
65、ands/retailers Mature marketplaces are increasing take rates build in flexibility and diversity in distribution across platforms to manage and combat this.Brands/retailers are spreading out their distribution over several platforms you will need to have a strategy on which platforms to be on and why
66、;for example is it a critical volume driver or does it build brand presence with specific audiences?It may be a good time to rethink the relationship with Amazon vs vertical specialists;audiences are increasingly fragmented and targeting the specific audience/missions to stay relevant will be critic
67、al.Generative AI search has the potential to transform brands/retailers ability to reach customers;it is important to be a“fast follower”,particularly around integration with Bing/Google as these capabilities develop.For more detail on the optimisation of your online proposition,see our latest Retai
68、l Proposition Index.HERES WHAT YOU SHOULD BE DOING IF YOURE A.OC&C The Next Wave of Digital Marketplaces|191.The B Corp certification does not extend to our alliance with Advisia OC&C Strategy Consultants in Brazil.OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023.Trademarks and logos,including Uncommon Sense,are regi
69、stered trademarks of OC&C Strategy Consultants and its licensors.If you would like to discuss any of the themes covered in this report,wed be delighted to talk.Mostyn Goodwin,Partner Jan Bergmann,Partner Ankul Wangoo,Associate Partner OFFICESBelo Horizonte1BostonHong KongLondonMelbourneMilanMunichNew YorkParisRotterdamSo Paulo1ShanghaiSydneyWarsaw uncommon senseTM