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1、Future of Goods MovementForesightNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement2ArupNovember 2023ContentsMoving ForwardAcknowledgementsContactEndnotesIntroductionContext1 Understanding the freight systemGlobal goods movement systems mapRoadRailShippingAir FreightPipelinesUnaddressed challenges2 The future dr
2、ivers of changeNet zero and the need to manage overconsumption and wasteResilienceRole of different nations in manufacturing and consumptionTechnology and changing business and consumption modelsEnergy and industrial materials transition3 Future Implications and OpportunitiesScenarios to inform long
3、-term decision making and investment in freight networkA High Growth WorldA Consumption-Conscious WorldFuture mode-specific implicationsWhat are the prospects for shipping?What are the prospects for rail?What are the prospects for road freight(HGVs/LGVs)?What are the prospects for aviation?What are
4、the prospects for pipelines?34793242635862666974788November 2023Future of Goods Movement3ArupWhy do we need to think about the future of goods movement?When most people think of transport,they think about their everyday experience using trains,buses,cars,or walking a
5、nd cycling to go to work,school,the shops,and other local and far-off destinations.Transport is about meeting their daily needs,getting access to services and goods,and meeting family and friends.However,there is another side to transport that is just as important,but which gets far less attention.E
6、very activity we engage in to sustain our lives,businesses,leisure,health,and relationships is facilitated by goods and resources materials,products,food,fuel,energy,assets.These goods are the end products of highly complex and largely invisible supply chain networks,all relying on extensively coord
7、inated operations and transport networks comprising of multiple modes of delivery.Typically,these behind-the-scenes transport systems only gain mainstream attention when there is a critical break down in the network,and populations and key industries are suddenly cut off from the daily resources the
8、y otherwise expect uninterrupted access to.The Ever Given,a container ship which blocked the Suez Canal for nearly a week in 2021 earned headlines internationally highlighting both the intricacy of global freight and its integral value to economies worldwide.This one incident alone was estimated to
9、have held up$9 billion in global trade value each day of the blockage.1This report aims to highlight the importance of taking note of and rethinking how we plan for the future of the freight transport system the long-distance movement of goods.We take a global perspective,but with some region-specif
10、ic focus on the dynamics playing out in the UK and EU freight and transport markets.We argue that a focus on the often invisible,but fundamentally integral freight systems which are responsible for delivering secure access to the goods and resources we all rely on is particularly crucial at this tim
11、e.The key contextual drivers for goods movement consumption,trade,manufacturing,and energy are all witnessing major transformation and will change the requirement for and demands on todays freight network.Due to segmented decision-making and priority-setting,the freight network serving most regions
12、of the world today is a highly precarious system,poised to experience significant disruption with increasing frequency.Understanding the changes and shifts that the future of goods movement is likely to be subject to,and the priorities and processes which should be in place,will be critical to the g
13、lobal economy and a more sustainable planet.Dialogue and consideration of this system must emerge from the background and into the spotlight for both everyday people and the decisionmakers planning the future of cities,regions,access to resources and infrastructure.IntroductionNovember 2023Future of
14、 Goods Movement4ArupEmerging challenges for the movement of goodsFreight transport moves goods(materials,products,foods,etc.)from a location where they are available to another location where they are required.The freight world is complex in terms of who operates,invests,and controls the network for
15、 different modes of transport,the types of goods carried by different modes,and the key characteristics of goods which travel over different parts of the freight network(origin/destination,volume,value,etc.).There are usually many different types of stakeholders involved in the process of delivering
16、 goods to their final destination-from providing and maintaining the necessary infrastructure,through to running services to process and transfer goods across international borders.Freight movement is dominated by the private sector for each mode services are planned and optimised with a fragmented
17、view(based on the individual entities which operate and plan a specific component on the freight network)and to date has primarily been driven by market demand,rather than systemwide strategic planning and consideration of long-term requirements and risks.This private-market driven nature of many fr
18、eight networks globally and within nations has led to an overall system in most countries and regions which has developed piecemeal and organically.Over several decades,this fractional development and the absence of an overarching national or regional freight strategy in most countries has arguably
19、made the freight sector highly vulnerable to major disruption from sudden,unexpected changes.Supply chains have favoured increasing speed and cost-based optimisation in recent decades and the result has been diminished resilience(back-up inventories,secondary options,etc.)in the freight network at a
20、 systemwide level.The combination of privately driven,fragmented attempts to optimise a segment of the system and a lack of strategic systemwide planning means that,to some extent,the freight industry today is characterised by highly complex operations and reactive decision making.ContextFigure 1Bre
21、akdown of CO emissions in the transportation sector worldwide 2021,by subsector3November 2023Future of Goods Movement5ArupA report published in June 2022 by Logistics UK,a trade association,found that global and local factors have created new issues for all aspects of the supply chain with problems
22、such as disruption to the supply of shipping containers,increased fuel costs,a shortage of HGV drivers and a lack of semi-conductor microchips all having an impact on the way that goods are moved around the world.2There is an emerging view across the freight and logistics industry that there is over
23、-reliance on just-in-time management systems and cost-based optimisation at the expense of operational resilience.The freight system that has taken shape over recent decades is also highly inefficient from a resource and energy perspective.Heavy goods vehicles(HGV)and light duty vehicles(LGV)togethe
24、r accounted for 23%of global greenhouse gas emissions from transport in 2021.Shipping accounted for a further 11%while all rail transport accounted for only 3%of emissions.It is estimated that if all passenger and freight traffic(2021 figures)by rail shifted to road vehicles,global GHG emissions wou
25、ld increase by 1.2 Gt of CO2-eq,or 12%more than total emissions from the transport industry today.4According to the UK Department for Transport(DfT)and Eurostat,empty running alone(not taking into account the many freight vehicles travelling with significantly low loading-factors)is at 30%in the UK(
26、as of 2022)5and an average of 20.2%in the EU(as of 2021).6This equates to millions of unnecessary HGV miles needlessly congesting the roads,costing money and emitting CO2.The majority of empty running is associated with national transport(23.7%EU average),with international transport performing bett
27、er on this metric(12.5%EU average).7Figure 2Road transport performed by empty vehicles by type of operation,2021(%share in vkm)8Emerging challenges for the movement of goodsContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement6ArupLong-Term Future of Freight PlanUK Department of TransportThe UK Department fo
28、r Transport has made a first attempt at addressing the lack of whole system strategic thinking around freight through the publishing of a long-term future of freight plan in 2022.This identifies five priority areas and actions around the following points:1Development of a National Freight Network2Tr
29、ansition to net zero 3Improving planning processes for the needs of freight 4Developing people and skills in the freight sector 5Using Data&Technology to drive innovation(including a new 7m cross-modal Freight Innovation Fund While the success of this strategy remains to be seen,the intention to con
30、sider and plan for the entire freight system is long overdue.November 2023Future of Goods Movement7Arup1Understanding the Freight SystemNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement8ArupThe movement of goods across long distances in most parts of the world is generally enabled through one,or a combination,o
31、f four main transport modes:road,shipping,aviation,and rail.We also consider pipelines in this study,due to their role in transporting key energy products and affecting the demands on other mainstream freight modes.The particular characteristics of the freight system,and the relative prominence of s
32、pecific modes in different parts of the world vary based on production,trade,geography,and precedents of investment in different systems and infrastructure.To give the reader a sense of the on-the-ground challenges,the particular complexities and the opportunities emerging in different regional cont
33、exts,we supplement an overarching global perspective on the freight network with specifics from the UK and continental Europe.Each mode has a unique set of strengths,specifications,as well as constraints and developing challenges due to historic planning and investment coupled with ongoing contextua
34、l changes.The suitability of a particular mode is dependent on local factors but a general guide of the core strengths of each major mode is shown below.It should also be noted that freight transport is influenced by a range of stakeholders.From everyday individuals ordering goods to be delivered to
35、 their homes,to large retailers and manufacturers,to shippers,operators and infrastructure provides,to government setting policies that shape the parameters of the freight world.For every mode,freight forwarders act as the intermediaries between the sending and receiving parties and the shipping,rai
36、l,or airline service provider.Each of these stakeholders have their own key interests shippers,and transport operators are business-led.Shippers are most concerned with the timeliness and cost effectiveness of their trips.Infrastructure providers are primarily concerned with the efficient use of the
37、 network(often each entitys authority and interest is confined to a limited segment of the overall freight network).Figure 3Core strengths of transport modesUnderstanding the Freight SystemOverviewFoodElectronic ProductsElectrical EquipmentBeveragesMedia ProductsWearing ApparelFurnitureTobacco Produ
38、ctsLeather Products 0.20.40.60.81.01.2(trillion USD)Shipping is estimated to account for about 80%of goods movement globally(Statista,2023)About 7%of global freight transport activity,as measured in tonne-kilo-metres,goes by rail.(IEA,2019)Raw Material extractionProcessing/RefiningLimestone,7%Coal,8
39、%Sand,gravel,crushed rock,31%OthersTop 10 materials extracted by share(2019)Soybeans,6.81%Others Fruit(other)4.69%Wheat&R.4%3.35%Cocoa,3.14%Total Trade of Agricultural Goods by value(2021)Top refining and process activities globally(2023)ConreteCementCrude OilSteelChemicalsWood LNGMeatSugar500010000
40、500030000Million metric tonnesManufacturing sectors by value add(tn USD,2022)Material Products,42%ConsumerGoods,31%AutomotiveProducts,12%IndustrialProducts&Services,9%Medical Devices&Services,6%Top Consumer Goods(2023)Distributed to manufacturers for different productsDistributed to retai
41、lersTop 10 retail products globally(2022)Alcoholic Beverages,7%Non-alcholic Beverages,6%Food,40%DIY Hardware,12%Apparel,7%Consumer Electronics,5%Tobacco,4%Other,19%5%10%15%20%25%0.0200022420252026Remaining supply chain costWarehousingParcelingSortingLast-mile deliver
42、y5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0%Share of total supply costs worldwide in 2018,by type of costOpen dump,33%Recycling,14%Composting,6%Incineration,11%Sanitary landfill,8%Landfill,25%Controlled Landfill,4%Open dumps and landfill dominate waste disposal(2018)Food and green44%Plastic,12%Paper+Cardboard,17%O
43、ther,14%Glass,5%Metal,4%Wood,2%Rubber and leather,2%Global source of 2bn tonnes of annual municipal waste(2018)E-commerce as percentage of total retail sales worldwide from 2015 to 2026(2023)Last-mile delivery represents over 40%of total supply costs for productsFuture of Goods MovementAir freight i
44、s estimated to account for less than one percent of global volumes transported but more than 30%of the value of goods transported.(IEA,2018)Road freight represents 15%of total freight activity but emits 44%of the sector s CO2(ITF,2021)ARUPDistributed to individual customers Waste0.0Agriculture-Top P
45、roducers by value(2021)Sand,Gravel&Crushed Rock-Top 10 Exporters(2019)Coal-Top 5 Exporters(2020)Raw Material ExtractionRefined GoodsSteel-Top 5 producers as share of global output(2021)Crude-Top 5 producers as share of global output(2021)Cement-Top 5 producers as share of global output(2022)Global M
46、anufacturing Output(2021)52.9%Locations of Retail Headquarters(top 15 Global Retailers by revenue,2021)November 2023Future of Goods Movement10Arup1.1 Road freightRoad freight forms the backbone of freight and logistics capacity within smaller countries and across almost every major economy.It is fle
47、xible as vehicles of many sizes and types can carry goods,allowing road freight to be used even where road infrastructure is poor.Whilst congestion can significantly impact journey times for road freight,diversionary routes are often available to allow for resilience even if a specific piece of infr
48、astructure fails.According to a report by the OECDs International Transport Forum(ITF),road freight transport represents about 40%of the tonne-kilometres across the OECDs 51 member countries(the top 15 world economies are all members),in comparison to 24%by rail,16%by coastal shipping,13%by inland w
49、aterways,and 7%by pipelines.Road freights share rose from 25%in 1980 to 40%in 2017 when analysed across these countries.9In the UK,nine times more freight is moved by road than by rail,11despite the fact that freight transport by rail on average emits 76%less carbon per tonne than transport by road.
50、12Similarly,in the EU road freight dominates inland mode share,accounting for 77.4%of tonne-kilometres,13Road freight is responsible for 15%of all European CO2 emissions,of which about 70%comes from medium-and heavy-duty trucking(MDT/HDT).14Since these vehicles have to carry loads many times their o
51、wn weight often over hundreds of kilometres a day,they are operationally well suited to being powered by diesel engines.The domination of road freight in the domestic movement of goods can be attributed to the modes flexibility and the ease with which access to road infrastructure can be achieved co
52、mpared to other modes.In the UK,transport of freight on roadways has also benefited from huge investment in the countrys strategic road network over the last 50 years giving it much more extensive coverage than any other mode.In the majority of cases,road freight is also the cheapest option for tran
53、sporting goods.For example,in China due to an expensive government owned rail freight monopoly compared to a fiercely competitive road freight market,road is the cheapest option for moving goods over distances under 800 km(the equivalent of driving from Aberdeen to London).15Figure 4Modal Split Shar
54、es in Freight Transport in 51 ITF Countries,.1.1 ContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement11ArupThe Fehmarn Belt Tunnel is a major infrastructure project that will connect the Danish island of Lolland with the German island of Fehmarn through an 18-kilometer road and rail tunnel under
55、 the Fehmarn Belt strait providing a key link between Scandinavia and mainland Europe.This will shorten travel time from a 45-minute ferry to 10 minutes by car or 7 minutes by train.This is expected to boost trade between the regions and reduce the need for shipping and air travel between Denmark an
56、d Germany.When built,the Fehmarn Belt tunnel will be the longest road and rail tunnel in the world at a total cost of around 7.4 billion.Construction of the tunnel started in 2021 and is expected to be completed by 2030.The Fehrman Belt TunnelDanish-German BorderNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement
57、12Arup1.1 Road freight1.1.2 Opportunities and constraintsThe OECD predicts that global freight demand will grow by around 3%every year16,meaning that it will have almost doubled between 2015-2030 and tripled between 2015-2050.The pace and scale of decarbonisation of road vehicles particularly heavy
58、goods vehicles has significant implications for the perception of road transport in a world oriented towards net zero targets and for the optimal role of road transport in enabling sustainable goods movement.Electric roads might be part of the solution for HGVs.For example,a six-mile e-highway trial
59、 in Germany installed overhead lines to allow hybrid trucks equipped with pantographs to operate.This trial is being expanded and the DfT has awarded 20m of funding to a consortium to undertake a feasibility study into implementing the same technology in the UK.17Hydrogen is also a potential option
60、for decarbonising road freight but is reliant on the provision of refuelling infrastructure the UK government is currently funding a feasibility study for the Tees Valley area.A study by the management company McKinsey estimates that globally supporting a larger and faster rollout of zero emission f
61、leets(cars,buses,light commercial vehicles,etc.)and accompanying infrastructure in a 1.5C pathway could require 75-90 billion in additional investments(above the current growth trajectory)by 2030.18However,the OECD predicts that,measured in vehicle-kilometres,50%of freight transportation will take p
62、lace in urban areas and will be related to urban delivery by 2050.19Decarbonising trucks and vans will help reduce carbon emissions,but continued growth in the number of these vehicles to support growth in freight volumes will continue to add to road and urban congestion,air pollution(from tyres),an
63、d necessitate the reservation of scarce and valuable urban space for accommodating large vehicles.A clear understanding of the role road freight should play,the scale at which it should operate,and where utilising alternative modes to transport goods is better for the environment and people is criti
64、cal for a more sustainable future of goods movement.EV Charge Point ProvisionUKUK Government and industry have supported the installation of around 29,600 publicly available charging devices.This includes more than 5,400 rapid chargers at around 3,300 locations servicing over 0.4 million battery ele
65、ctric vehicles.In comparison,the UK has around 8,300 petrol station locations20(as of 2022)supplying 37 million petrol and diesel vehicles.The UK has the fastest charging points per 100km of motorway of any country in Europe.The government has plans to increase the number of public charge points to
66、300,000 as a minimum by 2030.This follows the decision to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel HGVs by 2040 with the aim of transitioning delivery and freight fleets to EV.November 2023Future of Goods Movement13Arup1.2 Rail freightAbout 7%of global freight transport activity,as measured in tonne-ki
67、lometres,goes by rail.21The share of total goods moved by rail varies widely across countries.Russia has the highest share with over 75%of all surface goods transport being moved by freight trains.In China the share is 39%,in North America and India,rail makes up over 30%of surface freight transport
68、.22In the United States there has been a major expansion of rail freight capacity over the last few decades,and significant growth in intermodal traffic which has required construction of new facilities and considerable rolling stock investments.From 1980 to 2021,Americas freight railroads spent app
69、roximately$760 billion of their own funds(not taxpayer funds)on capital expenditures and maintenance expenses related to locomotives,freight cars,tracks,bridges,tunnels and other infrastructure and equipment.23In the UK and EU,rail freight constitutes about 9%24and 17%25of all freight tonne kilometr
70、es travelled respectively.Major rail freight flows in Great Britain are currently concentrated on the major northsouth link of the West Coast Main Line,between the two major deep-sea container ports of Felixstowe and Southampton and to/from the port of Immingham.Freightliner and DB Cargo have the la
71、rgest portions of the total number of terminals in the UK.26In the UK,for goods movement via rail,timetabled services set by rail operators run between rail freight terminals,and between terminals and ports.Freight forwarders work with the rail freight operators to aggregate loads to optimise them a
72、nd keep costs down.There are 11 clearly defined rail freight corridors in Europe connecting major economic centres,ports and logistics hubs in different European countries.27DB Cargo is the biggest rail freight company in Europe by a significant margin while Germany,Poland and France move the highes
73、t volume of rail freight.28Rail mode share has changed minimally across Europe over the past two decades,but the EUs Sustainable and Smart Mobility strategy aims to increase rail freight traffic by 50%by 2030,and double it by 2050.29Rail BalticaEuropeRail Baltica aims to improve freight connections
74、between the Baltic states and Western Europe through the construction of an 870km continuous rail link connecting five countries and five capital cities.The cost of the project is expected to be around 5.8 billion with significant funding coming from the EU and the rest coming from the governments o
75、f Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania as well as private investment.The railway will be fully electric and will be built to integrate with three new intermodal terminals in each of the Baltic states.301.2.1 ContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement14ArupHigh rail freight transport activity is normally r
76、elated to the existence of large landlocked resources that can be effectively exploited if traded widely and often over long distances and at high volumes.The capacity of one freight train on the Great Britain(GB England,Scotland and Wales)rail network can be equivalent to that of 76 HGVs31(freight
77、trains in other parts of the world tend to be substantially larger)and rail freight does not cause the sort of congestion and pollution in urban centres that road freight does.Due to the carbon intensity of road transport,the EU has a goal to shift 30%of transport over distances of 300 km to low car
78、bon modes.32To estimate the potential of shifting road freight to rail,the EU takes the percentage of road tonne-km that travels a distance greater than 300 km and,due to rails effectiveness over large distances,assumes that these are trips that have the potential to shift modes.In 2021,41.8%of the
79、EUs road transport fits this criteria and could shift to rail compared to 34.1%in 2019 the UK(no data beyond 2019 due to the UKs exit from the EU).33Figure 5Modal Shift Potential of Road Freight to Rail in the EU and UK from 2008 to 2021341.2 Rail freight1.2.2 Opportunities and constraintsNovember 2
80、023Future of Goods Movement15ArupRail is likely to continue to have a key role in transporting bulk goods and raw materials along with considerable opportunities in the transfer of containers between ports and logistics hubs via intermodal trains.While the inherent strengths of rail freight give it
81、clear advantages in certain market segments,there are numerous constraints that currently prevent rail freight from being competitive in broader market areas.Some specific challenges with expanding rail freight in the UK and EU include:92%of the GB rail network is shared by freight and passenger tra
82、ins,and historically passenger services have had greater political priority,as greater benefits are seen locally due to passenger service.This has meant that where the network is constrained in capacity,freight services may be reduced or compromised.Rail freight services are provided in response to
83、demand,rather than being timetabled in advance of demand like passenger rail services.This prevents private industry from considering the role of rail to transport goods at a scale beyond its current function(which is relatively small).A key challenge for rail is the need for extensive infrastructur
84、e along its line of route that is not generally adaptable to major change.Accompanying infrastructure along the rail network which is capable of handling large volumes of goods is expensive and a potential stumbling block to the competitiveness of rail.Warehouses and intermodal facilities need to be
85、 built in areas where the railways expand and need to be expanded along the existing rail freight network to increase handling capacity.The UK lags behind its European counterparts when it comes to rail freight electrification with only 10%of British freight trains hauled by electric locomotives,35p
86、artly due to electrification gaps in the rail network.Investment in electrification is needed to aid in the decarbonisation of rail freight and would have the added benefit of decarbonising any passenger services that share the same track.36 Due to track access charges,which make up a large percenta
87、ge of the costs borne by the rail freight customer,rail is typically more expensive than road transport of goods.Track and loading gauge varies between countries,preventing the rail network from being seamlessly integrated across borders.The independent development of railway systems in different co
88、untries has led to the adoption of a variety of track gauges(i.e.,the spacing between rails),power systems(using alternating or direct current and voltage)and signalling conventions.This is especially relevant in Europe and the Eurasian corridors,where,at switch of gauge locations,cars must exchange
89、 their bogies for the different sized tracks.If this is not possible,goods are transferred from one train to another adding time and cost to the journey.Even where track gauge is the same,the loading gauge(the size and shape of the trains profile)varies,further complicating interoperability.As well
90、as the issues around different gauging,signalling and electrification systems,cross-border rail transport in Europe suffers from the fact that countries timetables are often built up independently and without consultation with neighbouring countries to ensure that paths are available without signifi
91、cant border delays.A lot of rail freights potential comes from its relatively lower environmental impact compared to road driving and a widespread ambition for modal shift towards rail.However,road freight is decarbonising and is expected to gain a cost advantage of around 20 30%by 2050 thanks to te
92、chnological advancements,meaning that rail will need to match or better these savings to remain competitive.37Due to the constraints above,road freight continues to enable greater flexibility in freight operations,as it requires far less advanced planning and coordination.1.2 Rail freight1.2.2 Oppor
93、tunities and constraints continuedNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement16Arup1.3 Shipping freight1.3.1 ContextShipping is the primary mode of transportation for international trade,with sea freight carrying more than 80%of the international commodity trade by volume and over 70%of global trade by va
94、lue.38There are significant differences in world trade of commodities:most countries are either large net importers or large net exporters.As a result of this imbalance,research suggests that at any point in time,around 42%of ships are traveling without cargo.39Shipping companies demand a premium to
95、 travel towards a destination with low exports,to compensate for the difficulty of finding new cargo there.The global fleet of ships that carries seaborne trade is made up of dry bulk ships,container ships and oil tankers.The different types of vessels tend to be used for transporting distinct types
96、 of products.The fleet can be divided into two categories:those that operate on fixed routes and those that operate on flexible routes.Containerships tend to operate on fixed routes,while gas/oil tankers and dry bulk ships operate on flexible routes.Dry bulk ships account for about half of seaborne
97、trade and 45%of the total world fleet,40and are the main mode of transportation for commodities,such as grain,ore,and coal.The UK ports sector is the largest in Europe,in terms of tonnage handled.41The ports sector in the UK operates on commercial principles,independently of government,and largely w
98、ithout public subsidy.The private sector operates 15 of the largest 20 ports by tonnage and around 80%of the UKs port traffic.42Goods are typically moved from ports by road and/or rail to National Distribution Centres(NDCs)which act as medium-term storage(average 46 weeks)for international and domes
99、tically sourced goods.Regional Distribution Centres(RDCs)redistribute goods to retail outlets and direct to homes and typically have much shorter dwell times distribution frequently takes place within 24 hours.While the entire UK ports sector is the largest in Europe,all of the top 25 busiest ports
100、in Europe are located on Continental Europe.43These ports are strategically located and act as vital gateways to the rest of the world.Their importance is highlighted by the fact that 74%of goods entering or leaving Europe travel by sea.44The governance structure of ports in the EU can vary.Some por
101、ts are owned and operated by private companies,but the vast majority are in public ownership,especially since the UK left the EU when the share of public ownership in European seaports rose from 87%to 93%.45European ports can also feature a mix of public and private ownership,as is the case with the
102、 Port of Antwerp,the second busiest in Europe,which is owned by the Antwerp Port Authority but operated by various private companies that provide terminal and other services.November 2023Future of Goods Movement17ArupThe Seine-Scheldt Inland Waterway Project is one mega inland waterway freight infra
103、structure project currently underway in Europe.The basins of the Seine and Scheldt rivers are two of Europes most important industrial regions,but there is currently no way for large container ships to navigate them.The project aims to open up new freight corridors between Le Havre,Paris,Dunkerque,A
104、ntwerp,Lige and Rotterdam by creating a 1,100 km network of wide gauge waterways and building a 107 km canal connecting the Seine and the Scheldt.The project is set to be complete in 2030 making the waterways navigable for vessels of up to 4,500 tonnes.The project has primarily been endorsed and sup
105、ported on the prospect of reducing road congestion and emissions and promoting sustainable freight.46Seine-Scheldt Inland Waterway ProjectEuropeNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement18Arup1.3 Shipping freight1.3.2 Opportunities and constraintsStudies suggest increased transport costs or longer shippi
106、ng times in the context of a carbon tax on shipping may drive a modal shift from maritime to rail or road transport,especially in the case of trade in valuable or perishable goods.Recent research has shown that close to$2 trillion of global investment is required to decarbonise shipping,and around 8
107、5%of this cost is related to landside infrastructure and production facilities for future fuels.47With the growth of trade activities,decarbonisation of shipping has become an ongoing concern for the maritime industry,even though shipping is often considered to be the most energy-efficient way to tr
108、ansport large quantities of goods.Technical and operational measures approved in recent years at the International Maritime Organisation(IMO)are not perceived to be sufficient to curb greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping in the long term.As a result,the IMO is considering the introdu
109、ction of a market-based measure(the global shipping carbon tax),which would be paid based on carbon emissions from ships in global trade.48The resilience of ports to disruptions and climate hazards is also increasingly crucial and gaining recognition from the shipping and freight industry.The short
110、planning cycles for port infrastructure(typically five to ten years)constrains proper consideration of long-term resilience over the life of the infrastructure(typically 30 to 50 years).There is some degree of oversight in the wider industry regarding the return on investment on the expenditure rela
111、ted to planning and building in physical and operational resilience.November 2023Future of Goods Movement19Arup1.4 Air freight1.4.1 ContextAir freight is a highly specialised sector of the freight industry,which handles relatively low volumes of high value freight.While air freight forms a very smal
112、l percentage of the overall freight market when measured in terms of tonnes-lifted,it forms a much larger proportion when measured by the value of the cargo lifted.Air cargo moves around$6 trillion worth of goods every year,accounting for nearly 35%of global trade by value.49Goods shipped by air hav
113、e high values per unit or are very time-sensitive,such as documents,medical supplies,production samples,inputs to meet just-in-time production,emergency shipments of spare parts,electronics,perishables,etc.These specific goods are continuously transported by air due to the security,speed,and reliabi
114、lity of air transport.It has been estimated that,by value,air freight accounts for around 40%of the UKs imports and exports.50Heathrow is the most important airport in the UK in terms of freight,with 1.59 million tonnes handled annually compared to 0.34 million tonnes from its nearest competitor.51F
115、or perspective,the UKs busiest ports(London and Grimsby&Immingham)both handle over 60 million metric tonnes of freight annually.52Heathrow ranks fourth in terms of the busiest cargo airports in Europe,with Frankfurt,Paris-Charles De Gaulle and Schiphol respectively recording 2.30,532.03,54and 1.6755
116、million tonnes annually.Within these figures,the majority of air freight is carried on passenger flights in the belly hold rather than cargo-only flights meaning that,to a certain extent,cargo is subsidising air travel for passengers and passengers are subsidising air cargo for shippers.In the UK,th
117、e major players are British Airways,DHL and Virgin Atlantic with a combined market share of 79%(36.4%,30%and 12.6%respectively).56In Europe,the flag carriers of the busiest air cargo airports are unsurprisingly major market players,with Lufthansa and Air France-KLM having the largest cargo volumes i
118、n the EU.57Many low-cost airlines have developed business models that do not cater for cargo to be carried on board as it adds weight and loading time.For this reason,airports that mainly serve low-cost airlines see far less cargo and may not even feature any cargo processing facilities.Global air c
119、argo traffic is forecast to grow by 4.1%per year over the next two decades,with a significant proportion of that growth being focused within East Asia.58This is driven by Chinas enormous e-commerce market which is by far the biggest in the world.E-commerce revenue in China sits at$2,029 billion a ye
120、ar compared to$960 billion in the United States and$496 billion in the EU.Air freight is well suited to the requirements of e-commerce due to its speed,global reach and reliability.Figure 6World Air Cargo Traffic Flows Forecast November 2023Future of Goods Movement20Arup1.4 Air freight1.4
121、.2 Opportunities and constraintsDuring the COVID-19 pandemic,air freight played a crucial role in maintaining the global supply chain and ensuring that essential goods such as medical equipment,personal protective equipment(PPE),and food supplies were delivered quickly and efficiently around the wor
122、ld.While traditional shipping methods were disrupted and borders were closed,the aviation industry converted passenger aircraft to carry vital goods resulting in air cargo only seeing a 21%reduction in a time where passenger volumes dropped by 75%.60While this represented a success for the air freig
123、ht sector,it also highlighted the importance of diversifying supply chains and investing in resilient logistics systems to better prepare for future crises.Since the advantage of air freight is much shorter transit times,cargo must move quickly through an airport requiring significant coordination b
124、etween the private sector operating goods movement to and from airports,and airports themselves.The future of goods movement by air is heavily dependent on the wider future of aviation the demand for passenger travel,green aviation fuels to reduce the carbon cost of air transport,and future aircraft
125、 to accommodate different types of goods.Ultimately,the use of air transport for freight is likely to continue to be limited by the price,which is often several times higher than for transporting the same volume of goods by sea,road,or rail.Due to this fact,commodities shipped by air are those which
126、 have high values per unit or are very time-sensitive.A continued growth in e-commerce could contribute to a rise in the air freight sector with online shopping increasing the demand for fast and reliable shipping.One way the air cargo industry could absorb and encourage even more growth from e-comm
127、erce in the future would be through implementing new disruptive technologies at scale,for example the development of pilotless drones.ZiplineRwanda&GhanaZipline is a logistics company that specializes in the delivery of medical supplies and blood products using unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),commonl
128、y known as drones.The company operates in Africa,specifically in Rwanda and Ghana,where it provides on-demand and scheduled delivery services to hospitals and health facilities in remote and hard-to-reach areas.This has revolutionised the transport of time sensitive products and has shortened blood
129、product delivery times by 61%in Rwanda.Zipline has succeeded in a space where others have failed with other notable attempts at delivery drones being abandoned such as DHLs Parcelcopter.61November 2023Future of Goods Movement21ArupFigure 7Oil and Gas Pipelines from Russia to Europe66Pipeline infrast
130、ructure can be used to move a variety of liquids and gasses and plays a critical role in the oil and gas industry.As discussed in previous sections,each mode of freight transportation has its own unique set of strengths and weaknesses which define its suitability to move specific commodities.Pipelin
131、es are perfectly suited to the job of moving liquid or gaseous goods and can,in one day,move the equivalent amount of liquid petroleum as 750 tanker trucks or a train of 225,28,000-gallon tank cars62.While there are no exact figures,one estimate suggests that in 2022 there were over 4,000 operationa
132、l pipelines globally,covering a combined distance of more than 2 million km enough to circle the Earth 50 times.63Over half of these pipelines(51%)are situated in North America where pipelines deliver trillions of cubic feet of natural gas and hundreds of billions of ton/miles of oil every year64.Th
133、e EU is a net importer of both oil and gas,importing around 88%of its crude oil and around 56%of its natural gas consumption from key sources in Russia,Norway,Algeria and Qatar65.Being a net importer,the network of oil and gas pipelines in the region,making up around a quarter of the global length o
134、f pipelines,are crucial to the energy market.Pipelines are intrinsically tied to oil and gas supply and demand.From the underground reservoirs from which they are extracted,to the refineries or processing facilities,to the distribution centre and on to the end user,pipelines are part of the entire l
135、ife cycle.Since oil and gas only exist as resources within certain regions of the world,pipelines also play a critical role in managing price differentials between regions.For example,if there is an oversupply of oil in one region,the price may be lower than in another region where there is a shorta
136、ge of oil.Pipelines can transport the oil from the oversupplied region to the undersupplied region,thereby reducing the price differential between the two regions.1.5 Pipelines1.5.1 ContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement22Arup1.5 Pipelines1.5.1 Opportunities and constraintsWhile forecasting de
137、mand for oil and gas is greatly dependant on what path to net zero is taken,there are no forecasts that suggest that demand for these resources is going away any time soon.The World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency(IEA)predicts that oil demand is expected to rise from 97.9 million
138、 barrels per day(mb/d)in 2019 to 104.1 mb/d in 2040,an increase of 6.2 mb/d or 6.3%.67Natural gas demand is also expected to increase,rising by 1.3%per year on average through 2040.68However,the report also notes that these projections are based on a Stated Policies Scenario where it assumes countri
139、es keep to their currently announced targets and intentions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.If more ambitious climate policies are implemented,such as those consistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement,then demand for oil and gas could start to decline instead.The emergence of ne
140、w less energy dense fuels such as hydrogen could create new demand for pipelines,as HGVs and ships struggle to accommodate the resulting increase in capacity required to transport these fuels.Risks associated with reliance on pipelines for access to critical energy sources will need to be managed in
141、 a more politically unstable future.In 2022,a natural gas pipeline gave us a clear example of how an important freight infrastructure link can be weaponised during times of political instability when the Nord Stream pipeline was sabotaged.A series of bombings occurred on two pipelines that had suppl
142、ied the European Union with natural gas from Russia in the wake of tensions resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.November 2023Future of Goods Movement23Arup1.6 Understanding the freight system 1.6.1 Unaddressed challengesThe world around us is rapidly changing.We are at the onset of what i
143、s often called the fourth industrial revolution,a time characterised by huge leaps in technological innovation representing a fundamental change in the way we live,work,consume,and interact with others.The climate crisis and the need to decarbonise and rethink all aspects of our consumption,industry
144、 and production arguably represents the biggest challenge the world has ever faced.Consumer demand is constantly shifting,meaning that private sector retailers and manufacturers have to be agile to respond to the need for different goods.Beyond this,there are political,economic,environmental and soc
145、ial pressures at play and,as a result,a wide range of stakeholders competing on what we consume,where our goods come from and how they should be moved.With demand for freight transport projected to grow at an annual rate of around 3%,69it is critical that the future of the industry is carefully cons
146、idered with a greater degree of strategic planning and investment.A systemwide perspective is critical to ensure the interests of individual stakeholders for a single mode and across modes are aligned and balanced to optimise the overall networks functionality,efficiency,and resilience,and to limit
147、negative impacts such as congestion,emissions,and unproductive use of land.Systemwide planning and monitoring likely has to be government-led,as it is in the governments main interest to ensure the overall freight network is reliable and functional in the face of disruptions.The freight system is re
148、sponsible for giving us all access to the key resources we depend on to support our livelihoods.In assessing future constraints which demand greater resilience,efficiency,and agility,todays freight systems need strategic rethinking in order to reliably maintain core functionality of cities and regio
149、ns in the face of unexpected events,to enable economic prosperity,and to chart a sustainable and timely path to a net zero world.November 2023Future of Goods Movement24ArupFuture drivers of change2November 2023Future of Goods Movement25ArupThe future of goods movement will be driven by what we consu
150、me,where goods and services are needed and coming from,and how access to those goods and services is enabled.All of these factors are undergoing major change,which is why it is important to understand how contextual transformations will impact todays freight system.Shifts in terms of the demand for
151、different types of goods,the constraints and pressures on the freight system,and market trends and changing stakeholder expectations and priorities will impact the existing goods movement network both at the global and regional scale.In studying the wider social,technological,economic,environmental,
152、and political trends on the horizon today,we argue that five major shifts will have a core impact on how goods move in the future(right):Consideration of these five key changes should be integral to forward planning and future freight infrastructure investment and policy.Each of the key disruptions
153、highlighted above encompass a number of different emerging trends that will be influential in the future of freight.These major shifts and the collective uncertainties and changes they pose to the future of freight are described and outlined in this section.The fifth shift,centred on the energy tran
154、sition,is closely related to the first shift,the need to achieve net-zero emissions and reduce overconsumption and waste.We focus on energy and materials separately due to the direct implications this will have for the goods and volumes which need to be transported in the future.1The transition to n
155、et zero emissions and the need to transform management of overconsumption and waste2The need to prioritise resilience against growing environmental,social,and economic risks3The changing nature of global economic power and the role of different nations in consumption and production4New technology an
156、d innovation in supply chains,consumer preferences and retail business models5The energy and industrial materials transition2 Future drivers of change2.0.1.OverviewNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement26Arup2.1 Net zero and managing overconsumption and wasteNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement27Aru
157、p2.1 Net zero and managing overconsumption and wasteClimate change is having an irreversible impact on the earth,and the need to get to net zero is widely acknowledged by all major countries worldwide.The net zero agenda poses fundamental shifts for the movement of goods.Actions to meet net zero tar
158、gets will affect how goods move(the infrastructure,systems,and technology),where goods come from and are taken to,and what is transported.The major changes which will affect the movement of goods due to the need to get to net zero emissions globally include:ContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Moveme
159、nt28Arup2.1 Net zero and managing overconsumption and wasteNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement29Arup2.1 Net zero and managing overconsumption and wasteExpectations on how long people are willing to wait for goods and associated costs can changeIf people are willing to wait longer for goods this co
160、uld ease pressure on supply chains or even transform them.A larger proportion of the population may begin to demand locally sourced goods and avoid environmentally damaging goods.For goods whose carbon impact is significantly driven by transport,this could lead to a change the average distances of f
161、reight travelled and a strong market preference towards low-carbon transport.The things we consume and what we need to transport will drastically changeEnergy resources,food,waste,construction materials,product components essentially all goods on the market today,will flow under a different model in
162、 a circular future.Volumes may change because consumption will need to be managed to minimise(or eliminate)waste.Materials may be sourced locally(within the boundaries of a single nation),and come from central repositories(which manage recycled materials)rather than extracted from select parts of th
163、e earth and distributed globally.Figure 8Previous and projected fossil fuel consumption by transport mode,2000-2070(International Energy Agency)Implications for Goods MovementThe transport sector must chart a way to meet net zero targets.Freight decarbonisation will be key to a net zero pathway for
164、the sector.75November 2023Future of Goods Movement30Arup2.1 Net zero and managing overconsumption and wastePressure on decreasing transport related carbon will increaseA powerful carbon pricing scheme could shift the distribution of manufacturing and consumption potentially affecting where goods flo
165、w to and from.Cost advantages have historically led multinational firms to move labour-intensive manufacturing operations to regions of the world with access to cheaper labour to reduce costs.In the US,declining domestic manufacturing activity coincided with increasing shares of US imports of manufa
166、ctured goods from low-income countries,73and foreign material inputs to US industries expanded by almost 50%between 1997 and 2007.74It is likely that in the future where transport of a good makes up a significant proportion of environmental impact,businesses will again try to find less damaging form
167、s of transport and/or change routes or locations of industrial activity.Demand for more discretionary goods which become more expensive as a result of these policies would also fall,reducing the volumes that need to be transported.Implications for Goods MovementNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement3
168、1Arup2.2 ResilienceNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement32Arup2.2 ResilienceThe increasing recognition of the need for resilience under unexpected and disruptive circumstances has been brought into focus with the recent COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War.Climate change is already increasin
169、g the observed frequency of extreme weather events and natural disasters.With increasing political,environmental,and economic strains,nations are beginning to prioritise the need for resilient,steady,and secure access to critical goods for the wellbeing of their populations and economies.Key changes
170、 to prioritise resilience which will lead to major shifts in the movement of goods include:ContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement33Arup2.2 ResilienceNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement34Arup2.2 ResiliencePriority corridors for trade and goods movement will emerge and look different from thos
171、e we see todayIn a world with increased conflict and/or nationalism,countries may look to consolidate production activities more locally or ensure that they trade more exclusively with countries with which they have strong relationships.A higher preference for sourcing services/goods from regions wh
172、ich are closer or perceived to be more economically stable could significantly shift the origin and destination of goods.As an example,US tariffs on Chinese imports resulting from the US-China trade war,coupled with Chinas retaliation measures in September 2018,targeted almost half of Chinas bilater
173、al trade with the United States.As a result,around 12%of total US and 8%of total Chinese goods trade was estimated to have been impacted.79The types and volumes of goods requiring transport domestically and internationally may look very different in the future if new local industries begin to absorb
174、 activity that was previously administered overseas implying a rethinking and reassessment of strategic corridors and infrastructure requirements within and across nations.More broadly,strategic goods corridors and supply chains(and reliable alternatives during times of unexpected disruptions)will n
175、eed to be clearly identified and prioritised for investment.This will ensure key trade routes and access to critical goods are more resilient and reliable in the face of increased risk of conflict and economic disruption.Redundancy in operational routes,storage for critical goods,and systematic mana
176、gement of risk and resilience for key goods movement corridors will gain greater importanceIncreased frequency and likelihood of major disruptions whether social,economic,or environmental will create greater pressure in the freight industry to systematically anticipate,manage,and respond to risks to
177、 major freight routes which provide access to critical goods.There will be a greater focus on identifying alternative routes and creating redundancies for critical infrastructure to ensure core operations and access to goods in disruptive circumstances.Stockpiling and storing essential goods(where p
178、ossible)will gain importance to buffer against sudden operational closures or disruptions.The location of storage facilities will need to be planned to ensure trips to and from storage,to processing and to end destinations can be made efficiently and with minimal environmental impact.Addressing syst
179、em vulnerabilities and volatility may also require a push for greater innovation and the application of technology and artificial intelligence in managing freight networks and to preserve network integrity.As an example,the shortage of HGV drivers in the UK post-pandemic caused major disruption to s
180、upply chains and led to fuel shortages and price increases.Such labour shortages and disruptions over the long-term could lead to shifts to autonomous vehicles and operations in the freight and logistics sectors.Implications for Goods MovementNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement35Arup2.3 Role of di
181、fferent nations in manufacturing and consumption November 2023Future of Goods Movement36Arup2.3 Role of different nations in manufacturing and consumption The spread of economic and political power globally is changing,alongside lifestyle choices of populations across the world.The global push to ne
182、t zero emissions,the advancement in technology and data,rising incomes coupled with rapid growth in the East and Global South,will all disrupt and transform the distribution of manufacturing,trade,and consumption across geographic regions.ContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement37Arup2.3 Role of
183、 different nations in manufacturing and consumption November 2023Future of Goods Movement38ArupPatterns around where goods and services are produced and consumed are set to change from what we observe today.A shift in where consumption takes place,where resources,labour,and technology are available,
184、and where regulation and pricing is favourable to satisfy demand will reshape the primary movement of goods.The redistribution of production and distribution activities across the globe will change the key corridors across which the flow of goods takes place,giving rise to new major international an
185、d regional corridors for freight.Growing parts of the world in the East and South may account for more of the worlds consumption and production potentially making regional corridors more prominent than east to west corridors for trade.Rich countries may shift in the long-term to primarily following
186、circular economy practices re-using and re-circulating goods and materials already in the market to satisfy demand for consumer products,and therefore only trading long distances internationally for more limited segments of key goods.Studies looking at trade patterns of the future already predict co
187、rridors in Africa,Asia,and the Middle East are expected to rise from US$9 trillion in 2021 to US$14.4 trillion by 2030,surpassing global trade growth by nearly 4%.88South Asia is anticipated to be the fastest growing region for exports,characterised by robust ties with its neighbouring regions for t
188、rade.A recent free trade agreement between India,the UAE and Bangladesh envisions creating more than 100 special economic zones by 2030.892.3 Role of different nations in manufacturing and consumption Implications for Goods MovementNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement39Arup2.4 Technology and changi
189、ng business and consumption modelsNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement40Arup2.4 Technology and changing business and consumption modelsTechnological innovation affecting everything from access to information which shapes decision making,operations,and consumption choices,to the actual devices and v
190、ehicles used to transport goods will continue to disrupt the movement of goods.ContextNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement41Arup2.4 Technology and changing business and consumption modelsNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement42Arup2.4 Technology and changing business and consumption modelsNovember 2
191、023Future of Goods Movement43Arup2.4 Technology and changing business and consumption modelsImplications for Goods MovementLower cost and more capacity for freight on the transport networkWith increasing digitalisation,many services that people are accustomed to accessing through commercial or publi
192、c facilities today are increasingly available to them remotely in their homes.This is freeing up capacity on the passenger transport network(roads and public transport),which could theoretically be considered to move goods with an innovative operational model in place.With the onset of truly autonom
193、ous vehicles for road and rail,the cost of delivering freight within regions could dramatically decrease.More policy control over e-commerceThe continued growth of e-commerce will require cities to rethink how goods move within urban regions and between them from major ports and freight hubs.Models
194、which excessively prioritise consumer convenience at the lowest cost possible are likely to see disruption and potentially greater regulation due to the inefficiencies(such as congestion or empty vehicle trips)and the carbon impact they generate on a system-wide level.Transformation of existing proc
195、essing and distribution systemsMoving towards mass personalisation implies the need for businesses to rethink operations,manufacturing,marketing,processing and customer service.Bulk distribution systems may require reorientation to enable product specific personalisation and final processing.If cust
196、omers are willing to wait longer for their customised products,business may reconsider the pressure on maximising speed of delivery and goods transport.Supply chain innovations paired with a focus on sustainability and consumer demand for transparency could significantly impact which modes are given
197、 priority on average,while increasing trip efficiencies by maximising vehicle/fleet loading.It could also encourage greater collaboration in the freight industry to maximise system efficiency in terms of emissions and space utilisation over individual convenience-based just-in-time models.Changing v
198、olumes of consumed products,waste,and turnoverA major uptake and evolution to a PaaS model by major industry players could significantly change the relationship between consumption and production.The increased focus on durability by producers worldwide overtime would mean that growth in the consumpt
199、ion of new products would substantially decrease from the levels seen today.As manufacturers become responsible for the end-of-life stage of products,and focus on re-use,the need for transporting raw materials to processing and distribution facilities would significantly change.November 2023Future o
200、f Goods Movement44Arup2.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement45ArupContextMeasured in tonne-kilometres(tkm),energy products made up 36%of global seaborne trade97in 2021,and with seaborne trade making up 80%of global freight,this represents a significant po
201、rtion of the global movement of goods.The energy sector is set to see major transformation in the decades ahead.Emissions from energy used in various sectors account for nearly 75%of global greenhouse gas emissions.98Alternative clean sources of energy to are fundamental to achieving net zero emissi
202、ons globally.New low or zero carbon materials to create products and build infrastructure and buildings will also have a major impact on the types of goods which require transporting across the world.However,this is a space of significant uncertainty,rapid innovation,and political volatility.The sha
203、pe of the energy and materials transition will impact the actual goods and volumes which need to be delivered,how transport systems are powered,key new emerging technologies,and which transport modes become more and less dominant over long-distance routes or to carry heavy goods.The figure below sho
204、ws how vastly different global CO2 emissions could be in 2050 depending on which future outlook or scenario transpires.Under some of the more ambitious climate scenarios a much cleaner fuel mix is adopted and net zero is achieved,and under some of the more pessimistic climate scenarios net CO2 emiss
205、ions actually increase from a 2020 baseline.99Figure 9Global Primary Energy Mix and Carbon Dioxide Emissions(Ordered from highest to lowest levels of fossil fuel demand)2.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement46Arup2.5 Energy and industrial materials transi
206、tionNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement47Arup2.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement48Arup2.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement49Arup2.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionNovember 2023Future of Goods
207、Movement50ArupImplications for Goods MovementFluctuating volumes of demand for energy productsWith coal production mainly being focused in Asia over the coming decades it is likely that the UK and Europe will continue to see a decline in coal traffic.However,disruption in the global decarbonisation
208、of the energy sector,and concerns over energy security by events such as the war in Ukraine create significant uncertainties around the overall role and global need to transport coal across regions over the next few decades.Gas is transported by rail or ships where pipelines are at capacity or unava
209、ilable.Political instability and conflict between countries makes some fixed infrastructure to transport gas obsolete,such as the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline between Russia and Germany.The increase in demand for LNG imports as a result of the pipeline closure led to a sudden surge in the demand for shipp
210、ing capacity and infrastructure.Over the long-term it is expected that under a 1.5C scenario demand to transport energy products by ship will decrease primarily due to reduced demand for oil and coal.122Reduced reliance on fossil fuels due to increased uptake in hydrogen means that less coal,natural
211、 gas,and oil would need to transported in the future.The greater the distance goods must travel via land,air and sea,the more favourable hydrogen becomes as an alternative fuel source against batteries,which are heavier and have lower energy density.Rail freight and HGV transport are most likely to
212、transition to hydrogen in the short term.Hydrogen to fuel aviation and shipping is still in the demonstration/development stages.2.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionFigure 10UK National Railways freight moved by commodity,annual from 1999/00(billion net-tonne kilometres)118November 2023Fut
213、ure of Goods Movement51ArupFigure 12UK Mode Share by Commodity of inland freight(2019)1202.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionFigure 11EU Mode Share by Commodity of inland freight(2022)119November 2023Future of Goods Movement52ArupNew nodes for production and distribution of key materialsTh
214、e movement of steel requires special handling equipment and systems that are capable of handling extreme weight.More purpose-built terminals and handling equipment will be required to cater for these needs.Net-zero regulations may push steel plants to invest in less carbon-intensive production techn
215、ologies,or to offshore production in countries with less environmental regulation-impacting the volumes imported over long distances.Growth in construction and infrastructure development(telecommunication,housing,buildings,transport)in different parts of the world will create new major nodes for dem
216、and of glass.Pressure to increase the reuse and recycling of glass in the developed world will create new complex logistical challenges,including gathering of small volumes of glass from dispersed sources in a region to large local recycling or storage and distribution facilities.Cement is generally
217、 a locally sourced and produced material.The scaled production of potential low-carbon alternatives to cement such as Ferrock or Graphene could create new material flows and associated corridors globally,depending on how widely the alternative can be found or generated around the world.Increased dem
218、and as well as expansion of mining facilities for critical rare earth metals could create the need for additional movement of goods.The locations from which these metals originate are limited and emphasise the need to critically secure the corridors through which these goods can travel.An increased
219、push to recycle and reuse the rare metals,as well as security concerns in sourcing these metals from conflicted parts of the world will have implications on the future growth in trade and movement of these materials.Implication for Goods Movement continued2.5 Energy and industrial materials transiti
220、onFigure 13EU Commodities by Rail(2008-2022)121November 2023Future of Goods Movement53ArupFigure 15EU Commodities by Inland Waterways (2008-2022)2.5 Energy and industrial materials transitionFigure 14EU Commodities by Road(2008-2022)November 2023Future of Goods Movement54ArupFuture Implications and
221、Opportunities3November 2023Future of Goods Movement55Arup3.1 Future Implications and OpportunitiesTodays global freight system has largely been an outcome of consistent growth in global consumption of resources and products.It is the result of steady trade between a set number of producers of the wo
222、rlds goods(primarily Asia for manufactured goods)and a set number of major consumers(i.e.,rich regions of the world such as the US,Europe,and Australia).The worlds most traded commodities in terms of volumes are all agricultural,energy,and metal products.These are all resources whose future consumpt
223、ion is directly subject to major transformation due to efforts to tackle climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.While current and emerging trends still suggest that the speed of transitioning to new forms of energy and materials is slow in the near and medium-term with current levels of
224、demand likely to continue for many key energy products in particular a major transition over the longer-term is indisputable if global net zero targets and pressure to address climate change are firm.Around 80%of the worlds economy,and 77%of global greenhouse gases,are now covered by a national net
225、zero target123,and a growing number of major consumer product companies are placing circular economy principles on their sustainability agenda(40%of companies in a study by Kearney124).With the evident shifts in the dynamics of world trade and industry,it is critical to consider,explore,and reimagin
226、e the future of the system which enables the movements of goods globally.As described earlier,the freight system in the UK and EU,and to a large but varying extent globally,has been primarily driven and shaped by the private market,and has prioritised consumer choice,convenience and cost-competitive
227、ness often and increasingly at the expense of systemwide efficiency and resilience.The emergence of sustainability and resource efficiency as key agendas for nations and policymakers at a global level represents a major challenge and oncoming disruption to this incumbent model.Governments and major
228、corporations are moving to reconsider how they price goods,design and use transport,and the associated impact of these production,distribution,and consumption activities as they look to chart a path towards net zero emissions.This means the current freight industry must consider its role in realigni
229、ng its operations and infrastructure to fit under a new overarching business and policy context.The perception of optimal freight infrastructure planning,policy and investment decisions varies depending on the relative importance given by governments and the private sector to managing environmental
230、impacts,enabling consumer choice and convenience,and ensuring resilience.Our study of the global trends influencing the future of freight suggests these three competing priorities will be considerable points of tension in weighing trade-offs when making decisions governing the movement of major good
231、s.November 2023Future of Goods Movement56ArupTo help the reader visualise the possible future conditions which the freight system may need to adapt to,we outline two extreme scenarios.These scenarios help distil the implications of the key drivers of change which we argue are most likely to impact t
232、he future movement of goods.We use the following key drivers to define the contextual parameters for each scenario:1Consumption patterns(and how they alter between rich countries and emerging economies)2Degree of environmental action and regulation3Degree of energy transition4The state of internatio
233、nal trade5The nature of e-commerce6The emphasis on resilience(as opposed to prioritising optimisation of operational costs and speed)7Technology and innovationCollectively,these contextual parameters can impact the future freight system by changing:Which goods are required to be transportedThe quant
234、ities of the different types of goods requiring transportWhere goods travel to and from(origin,destination and routes)How goods travel(mode and speed)Through the lens of two extreme scenarios of the future world,we explore how these industry-specific factors for freight can be reshaped.These scenari
235、os carry important implications for informing the investment in and development of freight infrastructure today.The shifts these scenarios of the future may entail are vital for decisionmakers to consider in order to challenge the implicit presumption that the future is a continuation of historical
236、trends.3.1 Scenarios to inform long-term decision making and investment in the freight networkNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement57ArupA visual 3.1 Scenarios to inform long-term decision making and investment in the freight networkFigure 16Visual comparison of the High Growth and Consumption-Consc
237、ious ScenariosNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement58ArupA High Growth WorldScenario ANovember 2023Future of Goods Movement59Arup3.2 Scenario A:A High Growth World3.2.1.OverviewIn a high growth world in 2060,many of the same historical trends which have driven consumption,manufacturing,and trade to
238、date continue to accelerate,largely unchallenged by any new contextual shifts.Rich countries continue towards higher rates of per capita consumption of goods and generation of waste,and global consumption rates for most goods are at unprecedented levels as todays emerging economies now join rich cou
239、ntries with growing incomes and purchasing powers fuelling demand for all types of goods.Environmental action or regulation governing the use of products,materials,and assets is limited and does not affect the growing demand for new production of goods.Worldwide,the energy transition is limited in s
240、cale,and coal and natural gas continue to play a major role in the global energy mix and are traded at increasing volumes,particularly to fuel the significant population and economic growth in Asia and Africa.Increased deployment of renewable energy and hydrogen in some parts of the world leads to a
241、 net increase globally in the need to transport energy products and materials.Food and consumer products sourcing ingredients,raw materials,and sub-components across increasingly complex global supply chains continue to be manufactured and consumed in increasingly high volumes.Operational costs and
242、speed continue to be drivers of supply chains and goods movements,and any new resilience related interventions are limited to those which do not compromise maximisation in frequency of service and speed of delivery(at increasingly lower costs),upholding ever-increasing consumer choice and convenienc
243、e,globally.November 2023Future of Goods Movement60ArupAs a result of these contextual factors,the freight system in a High Growth World is characterised by an ever-greater emphasis on faster speeds,heightened international trade and interconnectivity,and the need for significant increases in capacit
244、y to accommodate fast growing flows of goods across all regions of the world.How goods travelGoods travel at ever increasing speeds as the desire to minimise journey times and reach consumers and retailers continues to grow at unprecedented rates.The speed of movement via different freight modes is
245、integral to their competitiveness.Types of goods and quantities to be transportedThe split in types of goods transported in this High Growth World is the same as that seen today,simply with even higher volumes than previously seen for all types of goods.Where goods travel to/fromProduction and consu
246、mption is highly international and all major freight corridors known today experience a major increase in demand to transport goods.Long distance travel increases significantly with high olumesof goods being transported across far flung regions at increased rates.Quantities/volumes of goods to be tr
247、ansportedAll kinds of goods from clothing to electronics,agricultural to metal and energy products are traded at increasingly higher volumes across regions.Capacity is constantly constrained and the need to expand the network and improve flow is continuously pressing.3.2 Scenario A:High growth world
248、3.2.1.OverviewNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement61Arup3.2.3 Implications for the future freight networkUnder simultaneous pressures to accommodate major growth in volumes of goods moved,an even more increasingly complex international trade network with minimal regulation around movement of goods,
249、and an ever-increasing emphasis on speed of movement the freight network would see a significant increase in risk to its resilience and reliability.Unexpected changes politically or environmentally could lead to major disruptions.Access to key goods may be inequitable across regions,as nations with
250、historical precedence leverage incumbent advantages to first access to critical goods in the context of competing demand from different geographic regions.The potential to have enabled limited global warming(in line with the Paris Agreement)is highly uncertain.In the absence of a revolutionary techn
251、ology providing unlimited clean energy at scale globally the freight network in this High Growth World is likely to experience increased frequency of natural disasters,high degrees of sea level rise,drought,and extreme weather conditions.1Due to the intensely high levels of growth in production,trad
252、e,and consumption there would be significant congestion issues on the freight and transport network despite continuous attempts to increase and improve capacity.2There would be a strong risk of highly volatile operational performance on the freight network as the maximisation of speed,trip distances
253、 and global interdependencies,and higher transported volumes compromise resilience against increasing frequency of disruptions posed by climate hazards and/or political instability.3To accommodate the increasingly high levels of growth and demand,significant construction works would be in place almo
254、st constantly to expand and enhance capacity on all major freight corridors.Construction and investment in the freight network would most likely struggle to keep up with demand for increased freight services.In such a case,there would constantly be bottlenecks and constraints which limit the flow of
255、 goods in the system to be less than overall market demand.This would present a scope for using pricing and or other means of regulation to maximise system efficiency and prioritise critical goods or high-paying customers4The need to accommodate freight facilities(storage,processing,and transport in
256、frastructure and services)would be challenged by other competing land use and transport priorities in cities and regions,along key travel corridors,and at major intermodal nodes.3.2 Scenario A:High growth worldNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement62ArupA Consumption-Conscious WorldScenario BNovember
257、 2023Future of Goods Movement63Arup3.3 Scenario B:A Consumption-Conscious World3.3.1 OverviewIn a consumption-conscious world in 2060,the drivers of change which push the world towards sustainability are powerful and dominant.Progress towards net zero emissions through balanced consumption and great
258、er regulation has put the world on track for close to 1.5 degrees of warming.Pricing mechanisms and comprehensive regulation are in place to minimise waste and overproduction of all types of goods,and to accelerate and embed circular economy practices in design,manufacturing,consumption,and end-of-l
259、ife product and asset management.With dramatic environmental awareness and strategic and effective carbon pricing,there is a major shift in consumer expectations and purchasing behaviour at a large scale,particularly in todays rich countries.Carbon-intensive foreign discretionary,luxury goods attrac
260、t an ever-shrinking share of the consumer market and consumers place lower emphasis on the high speed of delivery.The energy transition has progressed significantly through mass expansion of renewable energy generation,electrification,and varying use of green fuels worldwide.With regards to trade an
261、d access to critical goods,carbon taxation(driven by environmental action)coupled with global action to prioritise resilience against security risks and political instability,fosters greater reliance in most parts of the world amongst countries of closer geographic proximity and similar political an
262、d economic views.Long-distance international movement of goods is reduced as a result,and intraregional and localised movement of goods becomes more dominant.Existing studies today already show that due to changes in supply chain architectures,de-materialisation and innovations in manufacturing,even
263、 as globalisation continues,global trade flows in terms of volumes will not experience the same fast pace of growth in the medium term as has been observed in recent decades.125November 2023Future of Goods Movement64Arup3.3 Scenario B:A Consumption-Conscious World3.3.1 OverviewAs a result of these m
264、ajor contextual transitions,the freight system in a consumption-conscious world is characterised by an increased emphasis on slower travel,local movement of goods,and agile capacity to accommodate more volatile flows of goods across regions of the world.How goods travelWith rising awareness and carb
265、on pricing,there is a greater acceptance of slower delivery and constrained access to non-essential goods.Lower overall volume of consumed industrial and agricultural products creates impetus to rethink supply chains and product distribution systems.Types of goods to be transportedOverall demand for
266、 non-essential goods is significantly lower in rich countries than what is seen today as a result of increased consumer awareness,cost increases for generating waste,and government pressure on corporations to improve quality and lifetime of goods.There is a decrease in bulk and high-volume goods due
267、 to standardisation of design and production of industrial goods(to enable efficiencies in material use,repair,reuse,etc,),particularly in rich countries.Food waste and transport of non-essential food products are significantly reduced as mainstream consumers and retailers adopt more local and seaso
268、nal diets,to relieve pressure on unsustainable use of land and resources in major agricultural exporting countries.Where goods travel to/fromMaterials and goods are recirculated,recycled locally and regionally to a much greater degree,particularly in rich countries.This implies that there is a great
269、er demand on the freight network to transport goods within and between neighbouring regions,rather than between far flung regions and long distances.Long distance movement of goods is more limited to critical,essential,and scarce commodities e.g.,hydrogen production and distribution for nations whic
270、h cannot meet their energy demands from solar and wind sources,or for transporting captured carbon to adequate storage facilities around the globe as a result of the implementation of Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage at scale.There is a larger variation in the flow of goods between different c
271、orridors worldwide.There is more localisation and recirculation of goods in rich countries.High growth regions such as Asia and Africa continue to rely on new resource extraction and transportation to sustain growth.As these regions are also home to many of the worlds agricultural and industrial res
272、ources,they are to some degree able to rely primarily on regional movement of goods.Currently,the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN(FAO)estimates that one third of global agricultural and food exports cross at least two borders and that,in developing countries,up to 40%of total food produ
273、ction can be lost before it even reaches the market.126Quantities/Volumes of goods to be transportedThe ability to redeploy transport capacity to where it is needed and repurpose infrastructure is increasingly important.Major construction projects to accommodate growth in developing parts of the wor
274、ld and to build infrastructure required to enable the net zero transition will generate periods of high demand to transport materials and products over specific corridors.Simultaneously,due to reduced overconsumption and significantly stricter waste management,coupled with a global energy system tha
275、t is almost entirely off fossil fuels,there is unused available capacity on the existing freight network and assets.With over 2 billion tonnes of waste being generating globally each year127even a 10%reduction in waste would negate the need for over 200 million tonnes of goods to be moved to recycli
276、ng facilities,incinerators and landfills across the world.November 2023Future of Goods Movement65ArupBeyond the heightened activity to build new infrastructure to enable the net zero transition and accommodate growth in developing parts of the world,this consumption-conscious scenario suggests the f
277、uture freight system is unlikely to be characterised by continued growth at the rate seen in previous decades u.Planners and investors should be cautious of over-investment and over-building in new freight capacity that would be difficult to shift/re-purpose 50 years from today.Freight infrastructur
278、e and operational planning for the future must question how periods of growth can be sustained,without over-building infrastructure which may be obsolete in the future.1With less emphasis on fastest possible delivery or high frequency delivery options,there could be more opportunity for consolidatin
279、g goods for distribution and delivery and attaining higher load factors on freight vehicles.For example,trips for discretionary goods could be limited to certain days of the week or certain times of day to encourage consolidation,reduce congestion,and achieve higher loading factors on transport vehi
280、cles.2There is a potential for existing long-distance freight networks to have some unutilised capacity in this scenario.Decisionmakers today should subject new proposals to increase global capacity for freight movement to strict assessment of sustained long-term need and utilisation for the life of
281、 the proposed asset.If increased demands for transporting goods is limited to specific long-distance corridors(while demand may be declining on other corridors),than new demand would ideally be met by shifting and reallocating existing capacity,rather than through the creation of net new additions.3
282、More medium-distance trips for transporting goods suggest the role of rail,road,and inland shipping to transport freight could potentially become more important than long-distance shipping and aviation.Cross-modal strategies to optimise operations and minimise environmental impact would be required,
283、alongside greater coverage,efficiency,and coordination across new and existing international corridors.4Modes which can be deployed in a more modular way,where and as needed may be preferable to those which require fixed infrastructure.This should be considered when deciding which modes of transport
284、 are used to increase capacity on the freight network along with as assessment of duration of new demand(temporary vs.sustained long-term).5Freight infrastructure and buildings should be planned and designed with the idea of enabling future repurposing and flexibility in use.Unused capacity on the f
285、reight network could be used to transport people or be re-purposed for other active uses for society.For example,storage and warehousing could be used to create housing,offices,or other social infrastructure.3.3 Scenario B:A Consumption-Conscious World3.3.2 Implications for the future freight networ
286、kNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement66Arup3.5 Future mode-specific implicationsNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement67ArupIf the future world is somewhere in between the Consumption-Conscious and High Growth World scenarios outlined above,what should we consider as we plan and invest today for the
287、 goods movement system of the future?An overarching change which needs to be implemented in freight related planning under all scenarios for the future is the need to take an integrated systems-level approach to set targets and plan for the desired role of individual transport modes across key corri
288、dors(regional and global).As described earlier,the freight industry is made up of a highly interconnected system of different components,needs,and customers.Mode-specific targets such as,for example policy changes to the proportion of freight carried on rail should only be designated after taking a
289、holistic view of the full freight ecosystem,rather than driven by mode-specific interests which overlook the wider freight system needs and options.A systems-view enabled through cross collaboration between industry and government and tracking and sharing of strategic information to drive decisions
290、and investments for specific technologies,policy mechanisms,and transport modes will be essential to successfully overcome some of the challenges seen globally in recent years(and could grow in the future),due to unexpected disruptions to goods movement.At the individual mode level,the underlying st
291、rengths and suitable roles of different transport modes will still hold true in most cases under both future scenarios outlined above.The key consideration for freight operators will still be about offering reliability,resilience,and cost-effectiveness with high quality access to goods for industry
292、and consumers.The basic strengths of different modes for example,for ships to travel long distances with heavy goods,or for aeroplanes to provide secure and fast access to critical products will likely continue to differentiate them and dictate their roles in a changing market.However,what will happ
293、en with a changing context such as the implementation of high carbon pricing or the availability of low-carbon aviation fuel at scale is that some transport modes could start to gain a competitive edge for new use cases.This section attempts to highlight some of the key opportunities and considerati
294、ons that emerge for the different major modes of freight transport as a result of contextual changes we have highlighted as probable.This section also considers and acknowledges the role of emerging and more speculative forms of goods movement technology.3.5.1 Future mode-specific implicationsNovemb
295、er 2023Future of Goods Movement68ArupFigure XUpdated matrix and sliding scales to depict the likely area in which scenario-specific outcomes will fallFigure 17Visual comparison of the High Growth and Consumption-Conscious Scenarios,as well as the Probable FutureNovember 2023Future of Goods Movement6
296、9Arup3.5.2 What are the prospects for shipping?In a net zero future where resilience and flexibility are needed to address challenges arising from current and anticipated trends,shipping would have a clear role to play in the movement of goods.Sea shipping is likely to remain the most common way to
297、move large volumes of freight over significant distances between global regions,but there may be a reduction in the volume of demand for sea shipping given the potential future scenarios described earlier.Short sea and inland shipping can be expected to see a relatively higher proportion of freight
298、tonnage(where navigable routes are exist or are viable)as it gains traction in competing with road and rail freight due to both its flexibility in deploying capacity/service as needed,and relatively lower carbon intensity.In some areas,including the UK and parts of northern Europe,there will be sign
299、ificant growth in shipping traffic to construct,maintain,renew and service offshore power generation and transport hydrogen produced by these facilities.November 2023Future of Goods Movement70ArupKey considerations,risks and opportunities for future shipping based on our study are as follows:1Shippi
300、ng decarbonisationTo reach global net zero targets by 2050,shipping would have decarbonised and run on hydrogen or another zero-carbon fuel.Wherever possible,ships should be specified to be easy to adapt for alternative fuels given their long asset life.This will reduce the need to replace fleets pr
301、ematurely due to changes in preferred fuel sources over the course of the energy transition.The actual nature of the transition to decarbonising shipping is uncertain-shipping is excluded from the Paris Agreement,so it will be necessary for major shipping origins and destinations to structure their
302、own taxes and regulations in as coordinated a manner as possible to avoid inconsistencies.The EU has started to push forward with this by adding shipping to its carbon market(including 50%of emissions from journeys to or from the EU).Other jurisdictions implementing similar measures could give furth
303、er incentives to shipping companies to accelerate implementation of lower-(and zero-)carbon fuels.The International Maritime Organisation(IMO)is a specialised agency of the UN responsible for regulating shipping and they have set some decarbonisation standards such as the Energy Efficiency Existing
304、Ship Index(EEXI)and Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII)rating128which were implemented on 1st January 2023.The EEXI focuses on improving the technical performance of existing ships,while the CII focuses on improving the operational performance of existing ships.The IMO also has a strategy to reach a net
305、 reduction of 70%of carbon per transport(and 50%overall,accounting for an increase in the number of journeys)by 2050.1292More inland and short sea shippingWhere existing watercourses and canals are navigable or are planned to be retrofitted,or where new routes become available,it can be expected tha
306、t inland shipping will rise to compete against modes such as road and rail to help meet net zero goals.This is because inland shipping can be very energy efficient in comparison to other modes(particularly road),despite being slower in speed.An increasing focus on sustainable transport over speed an
307、d convenience therefore will make inland shipping more attractive for regions seeking to decarbonise.Governments should seek to work with the shipping industry to resolve capacity pinch points where inland shipping has potential to play a greater role in delivering freight capacity.3Global variation
308、 in demand for bulk shippingBulk shipping is the second largest carbon emitter in the global maritime industry.Bulk cargo will still be a feature for countries and regions which are still developing and need raw materials to support population and economic growth.In rich countries,under future scena
309、rios more aligned towards meeting net zero targets,it is likely that transport of bulk cargo(particularly over long distances)will significantly diminish over time this is especially likely to happen for non-essential consumer goods,agricultural products,and fossil fuels.As an example,China is curre
310、ntly one of the leading countries in the global dry bulk trade.Studies show that the introduction of a carbon tax on dry bulk trade in China could have significant impacts on freight rates,commodity prices,and dry bulk trade patterns.130Since shorter shipping distances would have lower emissions per
311、 tonne,there would potentially be increased reliance on nearby countries.For example,in the case of China,it may increase trade with India and Australia,for the import of key commodities.3.5.2 What are the prospects for shipping?November 2023Future of Goods Movement71Arup4Future energy productsOne k
312、ey area of expansion for regions such as the UK and EU will be shipping facilities associated with hydrogen,which is expected to grow in volume sixfold between 2020 and 2050.131Hydrogen importers and exporters will need facilities to manage transfer and storage.There may be scope to adapt existing f
313、ossil fuels infrastructure in some cases such as existing gas pipelines converted to transport hydrogen.In any case,shipping,particularly internationally,will have a significant role to play in enabling access to hydrogen at scale,particularly to places which cannot rely on other clean sources of en
314、ergy such as wind and solar.5Resilient and connected portsMany ports are somewhat removed from major population centres,others will need to be retrofitted and replanned as sea levels rise.As such it will continue to be key to think about how to best connect ports which are situated away from urban a
315、reas,to enable efficient delivery of goods to major urban centres or key industry nodes in the most sustainable manner.Bulk-manufacturing and processing centres should be co-located and prioritised to be situated close to ports and/or major intermodal nodes to maximise opportunities for consolidated
316、 transport for distribution to population centres.The resilience of ports themselves will need to become a key priority.This will require integrating scenario analysis of physical climate risks into existing planning processes to ensure the promotion of strategic,flexible and resilient businesses an
317、d investments.Figure 18Global hydrogen trade flows under Optimistic technology assumptions in 20501323.5.2 What are the prospects for shipping?November 2023Future of Goods Movement72Arup6Repurposing existing infrastructureAs demand for some shipping products changes,and even diminishes in a highly c
318、ircular economy,countries should plan for how the use of different types of ports,retired ships,and associated facilities could evolve over time and aim to identify opportunities for making use of underutilised assets to generate value.For example,some facilities and port capacity used in the UK tod
319、ay for transporting fossil fuels could be redeployed for construction of offshore wind turbines required to produce electricity and enable green hydrogen production.Figure 19Hydrogen demand by application in 2020 and 20501333.5.2 What are the prospects for shipping?November 2023Future of Goods Movem
320、ent73ArupShippers and port operators are constantly looking for ways to improve efficiency to avoid port congestions.Disruptive technologies such as Boxbay may be part of the solution.Boxbay is a container terminal design concept that aims to optimize space utilisation and operational efficiency at
321、ports by creating an arrangement of shipping containers,stacked in a grid formation,with an automated robotic system for handling and moving the containers.Its pilot study has been in operation in Jebel Ali in the UAE since 2021 and claims that quayside trans-shipment speeds can be increased by up t
322、o 20%.134 As with most new technologies,the main downside is the significant capital cost but as this technology becomes more mature these costs could prove worthwhile for the operational improvements they promise.Emerging and Speculative Technology:Rethinking space utilisation in portsBoxbay,Jebel
323、Ali,UAENovember 2023Future of Goods Movement74Arup3.5.3 What are the prospects for rail?The prominence and suitability of rail in the wider freight ecosystem is subject to significant variation under future contextual shifts(i.e.,what is transported,how high the volumes are,where goods are coming fr
324、om and going to),and therefore the role of rail in transporting goods will be highly dependent on coordinated industry,transport,and land use policy and planning.Rails primary strength in moving large volumes of goods over medium and long distances will continue to be relevant in the face of ongoing
325、 shifts.Rail transport will also likely continue being the best option to add major increases in transport capacity on highly congested routes.Rail will continue to play a major role in transporting goods along corridors where freight rail network offer strong service and where demand for transporti
326、ng bulk commodities,such as staple agricultural products and clean fuels,continues to be in place or experiences growth.Existing rail freight routes in some parts of the world will also see some reductions in demand,most critically in the case of a decarbonisation and circular economy-oriented world
327、,due to the reduced use of fossil fuels and extracted raw materials such as iron ore.In such cases,planners and developers can repurpose facilities and the location of new industries that may require the transport of heavy goods to places where increasingly underutilised,but functioning rail infrast
328、ructure sits.November 2023Future of Goods Movement75ArupKey considerations,risks and opportunities for future rail based on our study include:1Better balancing the prioritisation of freight and passenger railRail freight movement is often driven by the need to transport bulk goods,which differs in o
329、rigin and destinations from passenger demand for travel.This means that(with the noted exception of express freight)some rail infrastructure required for freight facilities can only be justified on the basis of demand for freight transport exclusively,which in many countries is a relatively small ma
330、rket when compared to passenger travel.To ensure adequate rail services exist to transport freight where rail would be most competitive over other modes of transport,governments(or those in charge of planning railway infrastructure)should give freight needs due priority in their long-term plans for
331、railway upgrades and investment.Regulatory frameworks should be put in place to preserve the capacity intended for freight to avoid it being overshadowed by what may ultimately be less critical demands for passenger services.2Expanding emphasis on express&mixed passenger/freight railExpress freight
332、uses either dedicated trains or sections of passenger trains to transport lighter and smaller freight into city centres.This could be retail supplies,food,packages and other similar goods.This has several advantages over sending HGVs and LGVs into major urban centres,including lower environmental im
333、pacts.The potential to merge passenger and freight transport onto existing train services should be considered by studying ways to standardise freight capacity on passenger rail service(where possible)and develop systems and methods for processing goods to ensure security to data and items(while encouraging sharing of transport between shippers and suppliers).Standardisation and dedication to expr