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1、2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTYCopyright January 2024 by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants(ACCA).All rights reserved.Used with permission of ACCA.Contact for permission to reproduce,store or transmit,or to make other similar uses of this document.About ACCA
2、 We are ACCA(the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants),a globally recognised professional accountancy body providing qualifications and advancing standards in accountancy worldwide.Founded in 1904 to widen access to the accountancy profession,weve long championed inclusion and today proudl
3、y support a diverse community of over 247,000 members and 526,000 future members in 181 countries.Our forward-looking qualifications,continuous learning and insights are respected and valued by employers in every sector.They equip individuals with the business and finance expertise and ethical judgm
4、ent to create,protect,and report the sustainable value delivered by organisations and economies.Guided by our purpose and values,our vision is to develop the accountancy profession the world needs.Partnering with policymakers,standard setters,the donor community,educators and other accountancy bodie
5、s,were strengthening and building a profession that drives a sustainable future for all.Find out more at Introduction This is an inaugural publication which we hope will help you and your stakeholders navigate the many challenges and risks in the global economy in the year ahead.We intend to produce
6、 it annually in the future and,hence,would greatly appreciate any thoughts or feedback you may have on it.In an attempt to try and differentiate it somewhat from the many other outlook publications produced around this time of year,we include summaries of interviews with seven chief financial office
7、rs(CFOs)from across the globe.They provided their bottom-up perspectives from the corporate level on how they see the prospects for the world and their regions and countries in 2024.In Section 1,we discuss the prospects for the global economy and key countries in 2024,as well as some of the major ri
8、sks.In Section 2,we highlight and discuss the key risk events to watch,in a year packed full of elections around the globe.In Section 3,we highlight three key trends we will be closely following in the coming year:i)further backsliding by governments on policies intended to achieve the green transit
9、ion;ii)rising geoeconomic fragmentation;and iii)developments with artificial intelligence(AI).Finally,in Section 4 we publish summaries of interviews with seven CFOs.3The global economy looks set to grow slowly once again in 2024,and downside risks remain.The lagged impact of past monetary tightenin
10、g could lead to an even more pronounced slowing in growth,and geopolitical risks remain very heightened,while the busy political calendar adds a sizeable extra degree of uncertainty and potential volatility.Executive summaryU.S.growth is likely to slow from 2023,but the chances of the Federal Reserv
11、e(Fed)pulling off a soft-landing look better than even now.Growth will remain weak in the euro area and UK amid restrictive monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy,but should still be moderately positive.The recovery in China remains quite tentative,and policymakers will likely have to materially
12、step-up policy support in 2024 if they want to achieve growth similar to 2023.Meanwhile,growth in India is set to remain robust,and it is likely to be the fastest-growing major economy once again in 2024.This year has an extraordinarily busy political calendar.A key focus for businesses and investor
13、s will be the U.S.election in November.In what is likely to be a very tight race,polls in key swing states currently give former President Trump a slight advantage.A victory for the former president could have major implications for international trade,geopolitics and the green transition.There are
14、also elections in other economically and geopolitically important countries.In India,Prime Minister Modi looks set for another five-year term,while in the UK,the opposition centre-left Labour Party looks on course to return to power.In Europe,far-right political parties look set to perform well in E
15、uropean Parliamentary and German regional elections.In South Africa,the African National Congress(ANC)is highly likely to remain the largest party but is at risk of losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of Apartheid.In addition to closely monitoring the usual ebb and flo
16、w of economic and financial markets data throughout the year,we will also be paying particularly close attention to three key trends:i)further backsliding by governments on policies intended to achieve the green transition;ii)rising geoeconomic fragmentation;and iii)developments with artificial inte
17、lligence(AI).The first two could be particularly influenced by political developments throughout the year.For the last,we will be on the lookout for any early signs that wider adoption could be beginning to provide a much-needed boost to productivity growth in global economies.In particular,as gener
18、ative AI continues to develop,more accessible models could increase the discovery of new and better applications.To support our economic analysis,we also interviewed seven CFOs from across the globe in various sectors,to gain a bottom-up perspective on how business leaders see the year ahead.In gene
19、ral,there was a feeling of caution about 2024,amid the challenging global economic backdrop and given the geopolitical developments and elections in many countries.Some businesses were naturally less impacted by cyclical economic developments,but a number were affected by,or at risk from,structural
20、changes related to trade,and supply chain issues.Most were experimenting with AI and other technologies in their businesses,while some noted difficulty in attracting talent,given changing ways of working.One noted how global warming had recently impacted his business.4The global economy performed be
21、tter than expected in 2023,avoiding the major downturn that many observers feared.Section 1:Prospects for the Global economy in 2024Amid the improving inflation backdrop,financial markets have pivoted to pricing-in a material amount of interest rate cuts this year in the major advanced economies,wit
22、h some observers even expecting cuts as early as the current quarter.At his December press conference,Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a surprisingly dovish stance,and the Summary of Economic Projections suggested that the committee expects three interest rate cuts in 2024(Federal Reserve Board,2023)
23、,albeit still around half the number currently expected by financial markets.The European Central Bank(ECB)and the Bank of England(BoE)adopted more hawkish postures in December,although ECB President Christine Lagarde has subsequently suggested that monetary easing could begin in the summer.Reflecti
24、ng the change in market expectations around central banks,particularly the Fed,there has been quite a material easing in global financial conditions since late October,with 10-year U.S.Treasury yields falling sharply,the S&P500 rising strongly,and the U.S.dollar weakening in broad trade weighted ter
25、ms.CHART 1:GECS global business confidenceSource:ACCA/IMA(2024)2000020202120222023CHART 2:Service sector inflationSource:ASR Ltd./LSEG Datastream(2024)82002200620022It benefited from the sharp fall in commodity prices from their 2022 peaks and t
26、he continued recovery of global supply chains and normalisation of service sectors,while economies proved more resilient than expected to the aggressive increases in central bank interest rates.This probably reflects the support to consumer spending from excess savings built up during the pandemic,a
27、s well as the fact that many households and firms had previously locked in low interest rates.There was,nonetheless,still a divergence in performance among the major economies.The U.S.and India performed strongly,the Chinese recovery was disappointing,while growth was weak in the euro area.Overall,t
28、he global economy is still thought to have grown by well below its annual average of recent decades.The World Bank has estimated that in 2023 there was an expansion of just 3%(see Table 1),similar to the OECDs 2.9%estimate from November(OECD 2023).Business-related surveys typically pointed to slowin
29、g global economic momentum as 2023 progressed.In our Global Economic Conditions Survey(GECS)(ACCA/IMA,2024),confidence among accountants and financial professionals globally has fallen gradually for three successive quarters since Q1(see Chart 1),while the closely watched J.P.Morgan Global Composite
30、 Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)has fallen quite markedly since its peak in the spring,although it has improved slightly in recent months(S&P Global 2024a).Across sectors,the manufacturing PMI was in,or quite close to,contractionary territory through much of 2023(S&P Global 2024b),which is reflected
31、in the weakness in global trade growth,but it was the slowing of the service sector PMI that drove most of the fall in the Composite index.Despite the declines,the surveys are not indicative of a major global downturn at the present time.Headline inflation has fallen back sharply in most countries a
32、cross the globe over the past 12 months,and core inflation has also come down materially in many.Of the two major advanced economies,headline inflation is currently 3.4%in the U.S.and 2.9%in the euro area well down from recent peaks of around 9%and 11%respectively.Nevertheless,amid the recent rises
33、in headline inflation in both countries in December,rather stubborn service sector inflation(see Chart 2),and an elevated risk of supply shocks amid the current geopolitical backdrop,it could be risky for the central banks to declare imminent victory in their battles against inflation.Indeed,accordi
34、ng to global accountants who responded to our GECS survey,concerns about costs remain elevated by historical standards(ACCA/IMA,2024).Without a more material easing in job markets,there remains a significant risk that the last mile for central banks in getting inflation sustainably back to their tar
35、gets,could prove to be the hardest.52024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 1:PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2024Focusing on the prospects for 2024,global growth is likely to come in materially below its average once again,with a broadly similar pace of expansion as la
36、st year.The World Bank forecasts an increase of 2.9%in global gross domestic product(GDP)(see Table 1),while the OECD expects a slightly slower gain of 2.7%(OECD 2023).Growth is likely to be well below its average in advanced economies as,despite the likelihood of some monetary easing probably begin
37、ning in the summer,central banks maintain restrictive monetary policies to ensure victory in their battles against inflation.Meanwhile,fiscal policies also look set to be contractionary in the major advanced economies,while political uncertainty,amid major elections this year,as well as elevated geo
38、political tensions,could weigh on confidence and spending.TABLE 1:World Bank economic forecasts20222023E2024EWorld*3.332.9AEs2.51.51.2EMs3.743.9EMXC4.23.23.5China3.05.24.5U.S.1.92.51.6Euro area3.40.40.7India*7.26.36.4Source:World Bank 2024*World is GDP growth based on Purchasing Power Parity calcula
39、tion methodology.AEs=Advanced Economies,EMs=Emerging market and developing economies,EMXC=EMs excluding China*The India numbers are based on fiscal years.Similarly,growth in emerging economies is generally expected to be below its average,although a key factor behind this is the slower growth in the
40、 Chinese economy than the heady pace of previous decades.Growth in emerging economies excluding China is actually expected to improve modestly in 2024 from that of 2023,with the World Bank forecasting growth of 3.5%in 2024 versus 3.2%in 2023.Clearly,a number of emerging and developing countries will
41、 remain under pressure,given slow growth in the advanced economies and tight global financial conditions,but a number of important countries are likely to register a pretty solid performance in 2024.For example,the World Bank forecasts growth of 6.4%,4.9%,4.1%,2.6%and 2.6%in India,Indonesia,Saudi Ar
42、abia,Poland and Mexico,respectively.The start of policy easing by the Fed should prove helpful for emerging economies,as would any further weakening in the U.S.dollar.The risks to global growth remain to the downside this year,amid a world characterised by significant uncertainty and potential volat
43、ility.These include a major risk that the lagged impact of global monetary tightening could lead to a harder landing in the advanced economies,and/or major financial stresses.This risk is perhaps not quite as heightened as looked likely in late autumn,amid the subsequent somewhat loosening in global
44、 financial conditions,a rising chance of a soft landing for the U.S.economy,and given what looks like a pivot towards monetary easing by advanced economies central banks this year.Nevertheless,if inflation remains stubborn,forcing a major repricing of financial market expectations for interest rates
45、,then the magnitude of this risk would increase again.Meanwhile,geopolitical risks have become even more elevated in recent months,with a rising risk of a broader escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.The attacks by Houthi rebels have already fuelled a sharp decline in shipping through the S
46、uez Canal(see Chart 3),and events in the Middle East clearly have the potential to cause a large increase in energy prices and global shipping costs.This would clearly be very damaging for business and consumer confidence,and would greatly complicate central banks task of getting inflation sustainab
47、ly down to their targets.Elsewhere,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to exacerbate the geopolitical situation.Source:ASR Ltd./LSEG Datastream/IMF PortWatch(2024)200222023CHART 3:Global shipping capacity passing through the Suez CanalTHE RISKS TO GLOBAL GROWTH REMAIN TO THE
48、 DOWNSIDE THIS YEAR,AMID A WORLD CHARACTERISED BY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL VOLATILITY.62024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 1:PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2024Philadelphia 2023),which is broadly similar to the World Bank forecast(World Bank 2024).Desp
49、ite the likelihood of a pivot to monetary easing by the Fed,monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive amid elevated real interest rates.Fiscal policy also looks set to drag on growth this year(Brookings 2023).Meanwhile,the dwindling of excess savings built up during the pandemic and slowing jo
50、bs and wage growth should help to slow consumer spending.Nevertheless,it is now looking like a better than even chance that the Fed may achieve a soft landing for the economy,amid the easing in financial conditions in recent months(see Chart 5),the improvement in the inflation backdrop,and given the
51、 likelihood of some interest rate cuts.CHART 5:U.S.Weighted average lending ratesPolitical risk will also be particularly heightened in 2024 amid such an extremely busy year for elections(see Section 2:Key events in 2024 a very political year).A key focus for the global economy and financial markets
52、 will be the U.S.election,with a re-run of President Biden versus former President Trump seeming highly likely.The result will likely be very close,with opinion polls in swing states currently suggesting that the former president has a slight advantage.A victory for Donald Trump could have major imp
53、lications for global trade,geopolitics and the green transition.Upside risks to the global economy in 2024 could come from continuing rapid improvements in inflation,paving the way for quite an early and significant easing of monetary policy by central banks.Of course,that could also risk sowing the
54、 seeds of higher inflation in 2025 and beyond.According to our 2023 Q4 Global Risks Survey(ACCA/IMA,2024),economic-related risks remained firmly in first place among risk priorities,although such concerns had eased slightly from previous quarters(see Chart 4).Economic-related risks were ranked in fi
55、rst place by 21%of respondents working in financial services,and by 29%of those working in the corporate sector.Overall,talent retention remained in second place followed by regulatory change.Geopolitical risks have risen significantly up the ranks of risk priorities since 2022 Q4.Turning to the key
56、 countries,after expanding robustly in 2023,the U.S.economy is likely to slow materially in 2024.According to the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters,the U.S.is expected to grow by 1.7%in 2024(Federal Reserve Bank of CHART 4:Top-ranked risk priorities in 2023,according to accountancy and finan
57、cial professionals%051015202530Economic inflation/recession/interest ratesTalent scarcity/skills gaps/employee retentionRegulatory/compliance/legalInternational and geopolitical instabilityTechnology/data/cybersecurityMisconduct/fraud/reputational damageClimate change/related regulation/its social a
58、nd economic impactsCurrency,including crypto,digital assets and FXLogistics/supply chain disruption/supply shortagesWithdrawal of fiscal measures/higher taxationSource:ACCA/IMA(2024),ACCA/IMA Global Risks survey(2023)Q4 Q3 Q2Source:ASR Ltd./LSEG Datastream(2024)2200420062008201020122014%2
59、0022202472024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 1:PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2024In the euro area,the economic backdrop remains rather bleak,with the economy contracting by 0.1%in Q3 and being flat in Q4.Tight monetary policy has weighed heavily on bank
60、 lending and housing markets,and the soft global economy has hurt exports.ECB estimates also suggest that fiscal policy is likely to be meaningfully more contractionary in 2024.The locomotive for the regions economy,Germany,is struggling,as the rise in energy costs since Russias invasion of Ukraine
61、has weighed on its all-important manufacturing sector,as has the weak Chinese economic recovery and the growing competition from its ascendant electric vehicle industry.On a positive note,the regions jobs market remains tight(see Chart 6),and real income growth has turned positive.This should provid
62、e some support to the consumer,while the beginning of monetary easing will also provide some relief to the economy.Growth overall in 2024 will be weak,but should be moderately positive.According to the ECBs latest Survey of Professional Forecasters,economists expected an expansion of 0.6%in 2024(ECB
63、 2024),slightly lower than the World Banks estimate of 0.7%(World Bank 2024).CHART 6:Euro area unemployment rateIn the UK,the economy contracted by 0.1%in Q3,and another soft reading seems likely in Q4.Growth is likely to be weak in 2024 amid tight monetary policy and contractionary fiscal policy,wi
64、th the freeze in income tax and national insurance thresholds.That said,with an election likely in the autumn,the government will use whatever room is available in its upcoming March Budget to try and reduce the magnitude of the fiscal drag somewhat.Further tax cuts seem highly likely.Growth will li
65、kely be moderately positive in 2024,improving gradually as the year progresses amid positive real income growth and the likelihood of some monetary easing.In November 2023,the BoE and Office for Budget Responsibility(OBR)forecast growth of 0%and 0.7%respectively,in 2024(BoE 2023;OBR 2023)while the a
66、verage of independent forecasts compiled by HM Treasury in January was 0.4%(HM Treasury 2024).Chinas recovery after exiting its Zero COVID policies was weaker than expected in 2023,as problems in the all-important housing market,depressed confidence and weak exports all weighed on the economy.The re
67、cent data has been quite mixed,but the government still achieved its GDP growth target of around 5%for 2023 with an expansion of 5.2%.With the recovery still quite tentative,problems with housing,rising fears of deflation and large external risks,further measures to support housing,monetary easing a
68、nd increased fiscal stimulus seem likely in 2024.But the government still seems keen to avoid the excessive stimulus that has typically occurred in the past.With less-favourable base effects this year than last,it will be difficult for the government to achieve past growth again.In November,the OECD
69、 forecast 2024 growth of 4.7%,and the World Bank expects an expansion of 4.5%(OECD 2023;World Bank 2024).Developments in the housing market and the spillovers from these to the wider economy and financial markets remain a major downside risk.Finally,the Indian economy was the best performing of the
70、large economies in 2023 and is on course for another year of strong growth in 20241.The National Statistical Office expects growth of over 7%in fiscal year 2023-24,while the governor of the Reserve Bank of India suggested that he sees growth of 7%in fiscal year 2024-25 stronger than World Bank estim
71、ates(Shaktikanta Das 2024).Reflecting the bullish backdrop,the stock market has surged close to record highs,and the purchasing managers surveys remain upbeat(S&P Global 2024c;2024d).The economy is likely to continue to benefit from strong infrastructure spending by the government,solid service sect
72、or exports,and the diversification of international supply chains.A Modi victory in the election could also reduce uncertainty and spur some strengthening in private sector investment.Developments with domestic food prices,and international energy prices,remain key risks,as always.Source:Eurostat200
73、02002200420062008201020122014%200221 Note,forecasts for the Indian economy are usually made on a fiscal year basis.For example,an annual forecast for calendar year 2024,will be based on the fiscal year 2024/25.This will run from the beginning of April 2024 to the end of March 2025.ON A PO
74、SITIVE NOTE,THE REGIONS JOBS MARKET REMAINS TIGHT AND REAL INCOME GROWTH HAS TURNED POSITIVE.THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT TO THE CONSUMER,WHILE THE BEGINNING OF MONETARY EASING WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE ECONOMY.8CHART 7:Key event calendar for 20242024 is an extremely busy and importan
75、t year on the political front,with the worlds four largest democracies,India,the U.S.,Indonesia and Pakistan,among others,going to the polls(see Chart 7).Section 2:Key events in 2024 a very political yearFEBRUARYMARCHMAYJUNEAUGUSTOCTOBER8 February:Pakistan General ElectionAPRILJULYSEPTEMBERDECEMBERN
76、OVEMBER14 February:Indonesia Presidential Election1 March:Iran Legislative Election17 March:Russia Presidential Election10 March:Portugal Legislative Election5 March:China National Peoples Congress6 March:UK Budget10 April:Korea Legislative Election likely AprilMay:India General Electionbetween MayA
77、ugust:South Africa General Election2 June:Mexico General Election9 June:Belgium Federal Election69 June:European Parliament Electionbetween SeptemberOctober:Sri Lanka Presidential Election5 November:U.S.Presidential Election1819 November:G20 meeting,Brazil1124 November:COP 29,Baku,Azerbaijanlikely 2
78、024:China Third PlenumSource:National/International sources and WikipediaSeptember:Germany Regional Elections26 July11 August:Paris 2024 Olympic Gameslikely Autumn 2024:UK General Election92024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 2:KEY EVENTS IN 2024 A VERY POLITICAL YEARSin
79、ce the Global Financial Crisis in 20089,populist politicians,parties and policies have generally been on the rise,particularly in advanced economies,exemplified by the UKs decision to leave the EU and Donald Trumps victory in the 2016 U.S.Presidential election.The first-place finish by far-right can
80、didate Geert Wilders in the recent Dutch general election suggests that voter concerns about the cost of living,immigration and international trade may provide a fertile ground for populist,anti-establishment politicians over the coming year.Absolutely key from a global economic and financial market
81、 perspective will be the U.S.Presidential election on 5 November.A re-run of 2020 with President Joe Biden pitted against former President Trump looks highly likely.President Bidens personal approval ratings are very low,and former President Trump has small leads in both national polling averages an
82、d,importantly,in polls in most key swing states(see Chart 8).ABSOLUTELY KEY FROM A GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE WILL BE THE U.S.PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON 5 NOVEMBER.CHART 8:U.S.presidential election polling averages%3638404244464850NationalArizonaGeorgiaMichiganNevadaPennsylvaniaW
83、isconsinSource:RealClear Polling(2024a)National=RCP average 10th December-16th January,States=RCP average September-January.The numbers do not sum to 100 as polling for other candidates has been excluded.Biden Trump102024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 2:KEY EVENTS IN 2
84、024 A VERY POLITICAL YEARThis would perhaps suggest that the former president is a slight favourite in a very tight race,although there is enormous uncertainty about the result in a nation deeply divided politically.Indeed,developments with the jobs market,inflation,gas prices and interest rates are
85、 also likely to be important determinants of President Bidens chances,as well as the situation in the Middle East.Indications suggest that a second Trump term could lead to tougher policies on trade and immigration,and some rowing back of policies to achieve the green transition.There will also be s
86、ignificant uncertainty about his support for Ukraine and existing alliances such as NATO2.Elections for the U.S.Congress will also be important,given that Congress can act as an important check on the power of the Executive branch.The Democrats currently have a wafer-thin majority in the Senate,as d
87、o the Republicans in the House of Representatives.Current generic congressional vote polls show the Republicans with a very small advantage(RealClear Polling 2024b).As with the presidency,the results are likely to be very close,although the geographical split of seats being contested provides the Re
88、publicans with a good opportunity to capture the Senate.In Europe,the European Parliamentary elections are in June.The centre-right European Peoples Party is projected to remain the largest,although the main pro-European parties are expected to lose seats,with large losses projected for the Greens,w
89、hile strong gains are expected for the Euro-sceptic far-right groupings(Europe Elects 2024).Regional elections in three eastern German states will also receive attention in September,ahead of national elections in 2025,with the far-right Alternative Fur Deutschland party currently polling strongly i
90、n all three states(Chazan,2024).In the UK,a general election looks set for the second half of the year,with sometime in the autumn most likely.The opposition centre-left Labour Party has maintained a commanding lead in the polls since the autumn of 2022(Politico 2024),and indications point to its se
91、curing a majority of seats and assuming power for the first time since 2010.The Russian Presidential election will also be closely watched in March,amid the war with Ukraine.A victory for President Putin seems likely.In Africa,the continents second largest economy,South Africa,will go to the polls s
92、ometime between May and August.The ANCs popularity has been hit by prolonged high unemployment,regular power cuts and accusations of corruption.It is highly likely to remain the largest party,but opinion polls suggest there is a significant risk that it will lose its parliamentary majority for the f
93、irst time in the post-Apartheid era(Wikipedia 2024).Hence,it may have to form a coalition with another party to form the majority3.In Asia,the Pakistani General election will take place on 8 February,closely followed by the Indonesian Presidential election on 14 February.The latter will be closely f
94、ollowed given that Indonesia is a large economy and an important producer of commodities critical for the green transition.The current president,Joko Widodo,is term limited and is not running again.Of the three candidates,current defence minister,Prabowo Subianto,whose vice-presidential running mate
95、 is Widodos son,has a substantial lead in the polls,but may not secure the 50%necessary to avoid a second-round run-off in June(Lamb and Teresia 2024).Meanwhile,India heads to the polls in April and May.Prime Minister Narendra Modis Bharatiya Janata Party performed strongly in recent regional electi
96、ons,winning seats from the opposition Indian National Congress Party.With Modis personal popularity remaining very high and the economy performing strongly,he looks well set to be elected for a third five-year term4.Aside from elections,an important focus will as usual be Chinas annual National Peop
97、les Congress,beginning on 5 March.The government will provide details of its GDP growth and inflation targets for 2024 and the likely fiscal policy stance,as well as various other policies and priorities.The important Third Plenum of Chinas 20th Central Committee may also be held this year,which wil
98、l probably have a greater focus on longer-term economic policies and reforms.Finally,in November,we will watch closely to see whether politicians can make additional progress on policies for achieving the green transition,at COP 29 in Baku,Azerbaijan.2 For a useful overview of his potential policies
99、,see Curran and Cook 2024.3 For a useful exposition of the political situation in South Africa,see Verwoerd(2023).4 For a useful summary of elections in Asia,see Nikkei Asia 2023.11i)Backsliding by governments on policies intended to achieve the green transition Even though meeting the Paris climate
100、 goals remains a major challenge for the world,last year saw the authorities in a number of countries,eg,the UK,Germany and New Zealand,dialling back on policies intended to achieve the green transition,amid cost-of-living stresses and various political pressures.Given the busy political calendar th
101、is year,there is clearly a significant risk of further backsliding by governments,which could delay the transition and increase uncertainty among firms.In the U.S.,the worlds second-largest emitter,Donald Trump,if victorious,could attempt to row back parts of President Bidens Inflation Reduction Act
102、 and loosen restrictions on fossil fuel production.He may also again withdraw the U.S.from the Paris Agreement.In our 2023 Q4 GECS,we asked global accountancy and finance professionals,Next year,what do you think will happen to government policies designed to transition the country where you work in
103、to a greener economy?Among our respondents,13%expected policies would be weakened,39%thought they would stay the same,41%expected them to be strengthened,and 7%didnt know(see Chart 9).There were,however,some very interesting regional differences.Only 8%and 9%of respondents in Asia-Pacific and Africa
104、,respectively,expected policies to be weakened in their countries,versus 14%and 20%in the U.S.and Western Europe respectively(for the UK,the figure was 30%).Only 37%and 39%of respondents in North America and Western Europe,respectively,expected policies to be strengthened,compared with 49%in Asia-Pa
105、cific.In addition to closely monitoring the usual ebb and flow of economic and financial markets data throughout the year,we will be paying particularly close attention to three key trends:i)backsliding by governments on policies intended to achieve the green transition;ii)rising geoeconomic fragmen
106、tation;and iii)developments with AI.The first two could be heavily influenced by the elections across the world.Section 3:Three key trends we are watching in 2024CHART 9:2023 Q4 survey of global accountancy professionals on the prospects for government policies designed to achieve the green transiti
107、on%02040608010013%39%41%14%47%37%8%35%49%20%38%39%9%45%35%GlobalNorth AmericaAsia-PacificWestern EuropeAfricaSource:ACCA/IMA(2024)Decreased/weakened Stay the same Increased/strengthened Dont know122024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 3:THREE KEY TRENDS WE ARE WATCHING IN
108、 2024ii)Rising geoeconomic fragmentationThe IMF has noted that after decades of increasing global integration,the world is facing the risk of fragmentation(Aiyar et al.2023).It coined the term geoeconomic fragmentation,representing a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration,which it sug
109、gests encompasses reversals along any and all of the different channels whereby countries engage with each other economically,including through trade,capital flows,the movement of workers across national boundaries,international payments,and multilateral cooperation to provide global public goods(Ai
110、yar et al.2023).The rapid pace of globalisation ended with the Global Financial Crisis of 20089,with the world subsequently switching from a period of rapid globalisation to what has been commonly referred to as Slowbalisation(see Chart 10).Global trade as a share of GDP is now only modestly higher
111、than in 2008.Within this,goods trade as a share of GDP has been largely flat,although services trade has continued to increase.It is not just the U.S.that has been implementing more restrictive trade policies.The European Unions Net Zero Industry Act has a protectionist bent and the bloc is also con
112、sidering duties on Chinese electrical vehicle imports.China has enacted restrictions on imports of products from some countries and placed restrictions on the export of certain technologies and materials.Some countries,such as India,have also enacted restrictions on the export of certain foods.Accor
113、ding to the Global Trade Alert,the number of harmful global trade measures has increased sharply in recent years(see Chart 11).Meanwhile,Donald Trump has talked about raising a 10%tariff on imports from all countries if he is elected President in November.CHART 10:Global trade to GDPCHART 11:Global
114、trade measures implemented*Source:OECD 2023 Global trade relations deteriorated significantly with the advent of the Trump administration and the trade war with China,as well as restrictive U.S.measures against other countries.The Biden administration has largely continued with the Trump-era trade p
115、olicies,and has enacted blocks on the export of key technological products to China,while programmes such as The Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)(2022)and The CHIPS and Science Act(2022)have provisions that favour production domestically or in North America Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA)countries.In genera
116、l,evidence points to quite a material fall in the share of U.S.imports from China over recent years,with a rise in the share coming from Mexico and South-East Asia.Of course,part of that simply reflects Chinese companies setting up production facilities in those countries.*Reporting lag adjustedSour
117、ce:Global Trade AlertWith onshoring,nearshoring,friendshoring and supply chain resilience moving to the top of policymakers agendas in advanced economies in recent years,and strained geopolitics raising the risk that the world may split into competing blocs,we will be watching closely for any signs
118、that slowbalisation is switching more decisively to deglobalisation in 2024 and beyond.We will also closely monitor other areas of geoeconomic fragmentation,with increasingly restrictive immigration policies in advanced economies being a major risk.According to the IMF(Aiyar et al 2023),increased ge
119、oeconomic fragmentation could have significant negative impacts on global GDP and productivity,with emerging and less developed economies the worst hit.WE WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR OTHER AREAS OF GEOECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION,WITH INCREASINGLY RESTRICTIVE IMMIGRATION POLICIES IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES BEING
120、 A MAJOR RISK.2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023132024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 3:THREE KEY TRENDS WE ARE WATCHING IN 2024iii)Developments with AI5 The excitement about AI reached new heights in 2023.While applications are l
121、argely in the early stages of adoption,development continues rapidly.AI remains on the threshold of transforming the landscape of business operations,offering potential benefits for operational efficiency,cost savings,business process optimisation and beyond.At its most basic,AI is about using the s
122、trengths of computers to undertake tasks that previously required human intelligence.Accelerated by the latest hardware,AI can identify patterns and underlying structures across vast datasets with minimal supervision,lending itself to a wide array of applications and notionally supporting any activi
123、ty that requires spotting patterns or outliers in data,eg,fraud detection.But AI can also be instrumental for enhancing capacity.Intelligent automation,for example,is reshaping knowledge work by minimising manual workloads,reducing time and resources spent on repetitive data tasks.Generative AI tool
124、s,eg,ChatGPT,offer additional capabilities.Chatbots are among the early examples,having been employed to help manage client queries and even provide advice.But new generative models with the ability to analyse and output multiple types of data including text,imagery and numeric could form the basis
125、of personal assistance on creative,research,coding and other activities.Perhaps the greatest achievement of generative AI is its simplicity and approachability.ChatGPT will have been the first time that many users have interacted directly with AI.No longer the realm of programmers,the ability to use
126、 natural language to prompt outputs is a game changer for user experience.OpenAIs announcement of a GPT-store allowing users to train their own mini-model could help uncover new use cases by enabling individuals to experiment on their own tasks.2024 could see both an open-source boom and much greate
127、r variety in the types and capabilities of models.Recent breakthroughs have been made by rapidly expanding the size of large language models(LLMs),but the question remains as to whether the next breakthrough will come from super-sizing or shrinking models.Smaller models built for specific domains su
128、ch as accountancy may be more interesting,for adopters,than fine-tuning a general model.Hardware and cost constraints also make the latter appealing from an innovation perspective.These developments could also tender some answers to the big question:how will AI impact work and productivity?AI is lik
129、ely to serve as a catalyst for innovation in the business world if opportunities are recognised and training is prioritised.But there will be gaps in adoption.Many organisations suffer from poor-quality data or related infrastructure that must first be brought up to date before they can leverage the
130、 benefits of AI.In use,the application of AI also requires effective governance,protection,and evaluation processes,especially when private or proprietary data is in play.These considerations will,in part,determine the immediacy of AIs impact.In the accountancy profession,we think AI is unlikely to
131、destroy significant numbers of jobs.The automation of data entry and routine processing tasks,for example,does not mean that those roles become entirely redundant,but it does mean that the tasks will change.It also means that expectations will change as AI helps improve the accuracy of processes and
132、 frees up more time to infer insights from data.In other words,how we do the work will change;and this means that skill sets will need to adapt as well.From a broader macroeconomic perspective,the fundamental question is whether AI represents a general-purpose technology like electricity or the inte
133、rnet,with the potential to provide a much needed,and potentially significant,boost to productivity growth in economies across the world.At this moment,the jury is still out but 2024 could offer an indication of how things are likely to progress and the extent to which there might be wider economic b
134、enefits from the technology in the near-term.5 This section has been provided by Alistair Brisbourne,Head of Technology at ACCA.14In this section,we interview seven CFOs from various industries across the globe,garnering their bottom-up views on how they see the prospects for the global economy and
135、their companies in 20246.We asked them three questions:i)What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024,as well as your own region?ii)How will this impact your company?iii)What are the risks and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?Section 4:How do CFOs
136、 see the world in 2024?CFO Interviewee 1:Dan Crociata,CMACFO of US-based Endries International,an industrial distributor of fasteners to manufacturers across a wide array of sectors https:/ are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024,as well as your own region?We are cautiously
137、 optimistic about the U.S.economic outlook for 2024,expecting a soft landing rather than a recession.Interest rates coming down will be helpful.Growth is likely to pick up after the first quarter,with some acceleration in the second half of the year.Although currently happening slowly,the reshoring
138、or onshoring of manufacturing to North America will benefit us,given that our business is primarily in this region.We are diversifying our own purchases of fasteners away from China towards countries like Vietnam and India.How will this impact your company?We should benefit from interest rate loosen
139、ing which boosts our end markets,amid increased residential housing construction and greater demand for products from homeowners(eg,home electricity generators).Talent will be a major challenge,with the inability to hire enough warehouse workers even after the sharp increases in their wages in recen
140、t years.We are exploring automation opportunities using advanced technologies,but it is trying to balance finding solutions that are the right price and that solve our business-specific issues.We have also started experimenting with AI in various applications such as pricing,inventory management and
141、 supply chain management,but there is still a need to see its more practical applications.What are the risks and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?Supply chains remain a risk if there are major geopolitical issues,given that we source 40%of our parts from overseas.The peopl
142、e side will remain a risk given the aging workforce.A significant portion of our warehouse workforce is over 50 years old and younger workers are not coming in behind them.The evolving dynamics of the jobs market,amid the gig economy and demands for remote working arrangements,has significant implic
143、ations for talent acquisition and retention.Automation might serve as a partial solution but wont fully solve the problem.6 The views expressed in these interviews are the personal views of the interviewees and do not necessarily reflect the views of the company they represent or ACCA.We are incredi
144、bly grateful to the CFOs for providing their time and expertise for the interviews.152024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 4:HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?CFO Interviewee 2:Anonymous intervieweeChina-based CFO of a U.S.-based company in the medical industryWhat are yo
145、ur thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024,as well as your own region?Generally speaking,professionals in the finance industry,especially accountants,tend to be a little bit pessimistic!I am not very optimistic on the macro economy.Each major country or region has their own unique i
146、ssues,and I do not see solutions to these if people cant work together,given the current trends towards supply chain diversification and protectionism.How will this impact your company?We do not expect a material impact from cyclical economic trends on our firm or the medical industry as a whole,but
147、 structural trends related to trade are important.In both China and the U.S.,there is growing pressure to develop and produce things locally.Hence,we might face challenges both on the purchase and sales side.For our North American manufacturing plants,we buy raw materials from China to produce the f
148、inished products,but we cant source cheaper alternatives from elsewhere of the same quality,so we will need to pay higher prices.This will lead to higher inflation and will impact the firm and the industry.Meanwhile,there is pressure to produce locally in China rather than import the finished produc
149、ts from our North American factories.This is driving increased investment in China by the medical industry.There have been some signs of improvement in relations between the major countries recently,which would be important for our,and other,industries.We also face increased competition from local c
150、ompanies in China,whose quality has improved sharply and caught up with that of multinationals.What are the risks and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?R&D is an issue,getting the new product pipeline and combining it with AI technology.AI integration is crucial for acceler
151、ating R&D and enhancing product quality through more accurate and faster diagnoses eg,diagnostic imaging.But AI technology is not yet mature,and there are significant ethical considerations,especially in terms of responsibility for false diagnoses.Thus,the challenge is to balance the economic benefi
152、ts,the ethical issues and provide a better service to the patient.CFO Interviewee 3:Sandhya J,ACACFO of India-based healthcare provider,Narayana Health https:/www.narayanahealth.org/What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024,as well as your own region?The global inflation
153、 picture is improving.Interest rates are likely to remain stable,with cuts even possible,globally and in India.Geopolitical issues are likely to be important amid elections in different countries.Meanwhile,Indias digital economy will continue to attract investors and grow as a share of GDP.Given the
154、 huge population,technology-based solutions are key to transforming peoples lives,governance,and enterprise operations.How will this impact your company?The key trends in the Indian healthcare industry are services becoming more phygital enabling holistic care,digitalisation(especially the strengthe
155、ning of electronic medical records),and the improving financial attractiveness of the sector.Digitalisation of patients records will improve the quality of care,while issues that previously may have been done physically can be solved virtually.Electronic medical records are likely to be a particular
156、 industry-disrupter in India,which will have the advantage of adopting more agile and fit for purpose technologies which can more natively integrate advancements in AI and Cloud Computing.The industrys attractiveness for investors has improved significantly,as higher incomes,a rising insured populat
157、ion,and other factors,boost its prospects.Pulling all this together,we are on the cusp of a healthcare revolution.This is encouraging greater investments in high quality infrastructure,digitisation,consumer focussed service offerings,and expansion into tier 2 and tier 3 cities.All large healthcare c
158、ompanies are currently in a significant capital expenditure cycle.Our company is investing disproportionately in digitisation.Weve also always worked with a model where we want to be efficient and affordable.Hence,a significant amount of our business expansion is occurring in cities where we already
159、 have capability and scale.What are the risks and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?For a country like India where tax receipts as a percentage of GDP are still very low,a universal healthcare system is not practical.The only solution is to move eventually towards universal
160、 health insurance.One of the problems with the growth of the healthcare industry in India,has been the breakdown in the trust ecosystem.Insurance companies dont trust patients or hospitals,while patients dont trust insurance companies or hospitals.We believe that the only way to fix this issue is if
161、 we,a provider of healthcare,also become a payer.We have been very recently awarded a licence to start an insurance company.We want to focus on keeping our customers healthy.We will start small and build scale based on our learnings.162024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION
162、 4:HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?CFO Interviewee 4:Fiona Nuwamanya,FCCAACCA Africa CFO of the year 2023,Co-founder,Director and CFO at Rocket Health,a Telemedicine company,operating in East Africa https:/rockethealth.africa/What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024,a
163、s well as your own region?Global economic growth will be quite slow in 2024,dampened by post-pandemic issues and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.Looking more specifically at Uganda,over the last two to three years inflation has been coming down compared to other regions and we h
164、ave seen slight growth in the economy.There is also a renewed expectation of African economies performing better this year compared to last,with countries like Uganda benefitting from an easing in U.S.monetary policy,which will likely reduce domestic inflationary pressures and the cost of borrowing.
165、But fiscal policy may be quite tight in Uganda as the government tries to reduce its debt ratio.How will this impact your company?My expectations for 2024 are of course coloured by the industry I am in,healthcare.The industry benefitted during the pandemic from increased financial investment and ris
166、ing capital expenditure,but this has since slowed,as has the willingness of consumers to prioritise healthcare spending.The latter has traditionally been an issue in Africa,with statistics showing about 56%of Africans not being able to access healthcare services,and one reason being affordability.Th
167、e sector is also seeing a number of mergers and acquisitions between different healthcare companies as they attempt to grab a larger share of the slower growing market.As a company,one of our key strategies this year will be to focus on partnerships that can drive business growth.What are the risks
168、and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?Digital technologies such as AI are changing the landscape including how patients receive healthcare and how employees deliver on tasks.This is an area to keep an eye on in the next 12 months as this can be a risk or a benefit to the bu
169、siness.In terms of challenges,first,I would cite the increasing cost of finance.The cost of R&D to drive growth in innovative businesses like ours,with a model that is still relatively new in the country or elsewhere in Africa,is an important factor,as it can be quite difficult to convince tradition
170、al financing institutions or players to invest.Second,the increasing cost of doing business.A significant share of the medications and supplies we use in providing services are imported,and these are occasionally impacted by supply chain disruptions or rising import costs.Third is the increasing cos
171、t of regulation and compliance,with the various requirements changing and tightening in many instances.The increasing mobility of talent is also an issue,with younger workers wanting more job flexibility.Although medical workers have typically always worked in multiple places at the same time,a new
172、trend is emerging with non-medical staff who are now seeking more flexibility as well.172024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 4:HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?CFO Interviewee 5:Georgia Paphiti,FCCACFO for EMEA and UBS Europe SE,a major global financial services firm ht
173、tps:/ are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024,as well as your own region?The global economic landscape is complex.Over recent years,we have experienced the pandemic,military conflicts,geopolitical tensions,high inflation,rising interest rates,and surging government debts.20
174、24 feels like an extraordinary time in history,and we should be cautious on the outlook for the year.High interest rates will put pressure on private sector spending,while politics and geopolitics will play a very important role.But on a more positive note,technology and AI should continue to accele
175、rate value creation across many sectors.Turning to the Europe,Middle East and Africa(EMEA)region,it is complex and diverse but at the same time dynamic.It will play an important role in future advances in technology and sustainability,and will benefit from lots of strategic investment in the energy
176、and technology areas.How will this impact your company?The economic outlook for 2024,considering the various global factors and the UBS specific situation,indicates a period of adaptation and strategic manoeuvring for the bank.With central banks pausing interest rate hikes and uncertainties regardin
177、g the optimal interest rate levels needed to achieve inflation targets,financial markets remain unpredictable.This environment will require UBS to navigate cautiously,balancing the need for profitability with the risks of a volatile interest rate landscape.In 2024,UBS aims to deliver underlying prof
178、itability,stay close to clients and help them navigate challenging markets,execute on integration plans at pace while planning for the next milestones,and reinforce our balance sheet for all seasons including work towards cost base rightsizing.For our clients,UBS will focus on managing liquidity,inv
179、esting in quality assets,trading strategically in currencies and commodities,hedging against market risks,and diversifying through alternative investments in line with our investor recommendations.What are the risks and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?The integration proc
180、ess with Credit Suisse is a risk but at the same time offers a valuable opportunity for transformation and growth.We anticipate the merger will streamline processes,optimize resources,and ultimately lead to enhanced client experiences and offerings.The new,combined service platform,unifying expertis
181、e in strategic adaption and robust risk management,will solidify UBSs position as a global financial leader.In 2024 and beyond,UBS will navigate a landscape bringing many opportunities and challenges.The uncertain interest rate environment and monetary policy shifts present a unique chance for UBS t
182、o showcase our adaptability and expertise in asset valuation,and market volatility management,potentially enhancing profitability and refining our investment strategies.Geopolitical developments,while challenging,also provide us with an opportunity to strengthen our investment management and client
183、advisory services to demonstrate the resilience and ability of strategic foresight in dynamic market conditions UBS is known for.182024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIGH UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 4:HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?CFO Interviewee 6:William Tan Kwang Hwee,ACCACFO of Tiong Woon Corp
184、oration,a Singapore headquartered and listed heavy lift specialist and service provider https:/ are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024,as well as your own region?The world is experiencing an extraordinary confluence of challenges.I see the global economy in 2024 being char
185、acterised by:(i)“higher-for-longer”interest rates,(ii)sluggish growth,and(iii)heightened volatility and uncertainty.Despite this rather sombre global picture,I see ASEAN as a relative outperformer,continuing its positive trajectory over recent decades,and benefitting from the“China+1”strategies of v
186、arious companies.ASEAN is not homogeneous though,given country-specific idiosyncrasies.Singapore should be a stand-out performer in the bloc.How will this impact your company?As with other companies,we have had to contend with increasing cost pressures,labour shortages and rising interest rates.Our
187、industry is very capital intensive,and rising interest rates increase refinancing costs for our customers,impact the feasibility of new investments,and increase the pressure from investors.Despite the challenging global backdrop,we delivered robust revenue and profits growth in the previous fiscal y
188、ear,and continued to strengthen our balance sheet.A strong balance sheet reduces borrowing costs,leads to better terms from our vendors,and leaves us well placed to seize opportunities despite the challenges.We maintain a positive outlook for the business,expecting steady customer demand for our Hea
189、vy Lift and Haulage solutions in Singapore,as well as in key regional markets such as India,Saudi Arabia,and Thailand.We believe there are other opportunities in Saudi Arabia as the country embarks on its modernisation plan to diversify away from the oil sector.What are the risks and other key chall
190、enges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?We remain vigilant and mindful of risks,particularly in respect of contract,credit,foreign exchange,geopolitical and other risks.It is also imperative that we continue to leverage technology,to provide better solutions to our customers,safely,efficiently
191、and profitably.In terms of sustainability,we continue to make efforts to minimise our carbon footprint.One of our yards has turned“carbon-negative”,and we have acquired electric pallet trucks and forklifts.We also adopted GRI 2021 standards,and TCFD recommendations in terms of governance,strategy,ri
192、sk management,metrics and targets,in our recently released 2023 Sustainability Report,where we set out our ESG targets,as well as climate risks and opportunities.With respect to sustainability reporting,we are watching the rapidly evolving space closely.192024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH,HIG
193、H UNCERTAINTY|SECTION 4:HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?CFO Interviewee 7:Jason Wang,FCCA,AICPAExecutive Director,CFO&COO of H&H Group,a Hong Kong headquartered and listed global health and nutrition company https:/www.hh.global/#/HomeWhat are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy
194、in 2024,as well as your own region?Looking at the markets where we operate,we see strong demand for premium health and nutrition products in China,and expect continued growth driven by our adult and pet products.But the declining birth rate is a challenge for our baby products.We are quite positive
195、about the growth of the U.S.market and feel quite confident that through product innovation and the expansion of our sales channels,we can outperform the market.Turning to Australia and New Zealand,if global demand for commodities is not that strong,the economic recovery in Australia may not proceed
196、 as quickly as we would like.However,consumer demand for health products is very strong and visitors are returning to Australia.Hence,we expect moderate growth in 2024.Regarding other markets,we expect continued very strong expansion in Southeast Asia amid strong economic growth and improving living
197、 standards.We are also expanding in India and the Middle East,seeing quite strong demand there.Lastly,despite the economic challenges,we expect our Europe business to be stable in 2024.How will this impact your company?In terms of people resource management,we will invest a bit into the high growth
198、markets such as Southeast Asia and the U.S.But overall,we will drive for operational efficiency improvement.For example,we are harmonising the Enterprise Resource Planning systems across most of our markets.We will also continue to push to boost the corporate culture,which we see as being important.
199、What are the risks and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?The number one risk is demographics amid declining birth rates.Second is supply chain risk given we operate in all these continents and have a very complex global supply chain.Another challenge we have just encountere
200、d was due to global warming,the El Nino effect,which has significantly reduced fish stocks and the global fish oil supply.We have encountered double-digit cost increases for the fish oil we source.Meanwhile,an important future trend in the nutrition and wellness industry is expected to be Personalis
201、ation,given different diets and DNAs.Technologies including AI will help us develop personalised nutrition solutions.20ACCA/IMA(2024),Global Economic Conditions Survey Q4 2023,.Aiyar,S.et al.(2023),Staff Discussion Notes:Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism,15 January.Download
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204、Bank of Philadelphia(2023),Fourth Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters website article,13 November.Federal Reserve Board(2023),Summary of Economic Projections,13 December.HM Treasury(2024),Forecasts for the UK Economy:A Comparison of Independent Forecasts.Downloadable from.Lamb,K.and Tere
205、sia,A.(2024),Indonesias Prabowo Keeps Strong Lead in Election Poll but Runoff Looms website article,18 January.Nikkei Asia(2023),From India and Pakistan to Indonesia,Asia Set for Election-Packed 2024 website article 26 December.OBR(Office for Budget Responsibility)(2023),Economic and Fiscal Outlook
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207、 Polls website,up to 22 January.RealClear Polling(2024b),Election 2024:2024 Generic Congressional Vote.S&P Global(2024a),J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI:Global Economic Growth Edges Higher but Sector Divergence Persists online news release,4 January.S&P Global(2024b),J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing
208、PMI:Global Factory Output and Employment Fall at Faster Rates at Close of 2023 online news release,2 January.S&P Global(2024c),HSBC India Manufacturing PMI:Manufacturing Industry Caps off 2023 with Robust Growth and Minimal Inflation online news release,3 January.S&P Global(2024d),HSBC India Service
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