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1、Platform for Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society Jobs of Tomorrow Mapping Opportunity in the New Economy January 2020 World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 Email: contactweforum.org World Econom
2、ic Forum 2020 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. REF 220120 This report has been published by the World Economic Forum as a contributi
3、on to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum, but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the ent
4、irety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. Contents Key Findings _ 4 Part 1: Opportunity in the Emerging Labour Market _ 5 Emerging Professions and Job Churn _ 6 Mapping Emerging Occupations _ 7 Quantifying the Jobs of Tomorrow _ 8 Identifying Rising Demand for Skill Sets _ 12 Mapping Dis
5、tinctive Learning Trajectories and Skills Capabilities _ 14 Conclusion _ 18 Part 2: Professions of the Future in Focus _ 19 Care Economy _ 21 Data and AI _ 21 Engineering and Cloud Computing_ 22 Green Economy _ 22 People and Culture _ 23 Product Development _ 23 Sales, Marketing and Content _ 24 Not
6、es _ 25 References _ 26 Acknowledgements _ 27 Contributors _ 28 4 Key Findings The Fourth Industrial Revolution is creating demand for millions of new jobs, with vast new opportunities for fulfill- ing peoples potential and aspirations. However, in order to turn these opportunities into reality, new
7、 sources of data and innovative approaches to understand emerging jobs and skills, as well as to empower effective and coordinated large-scale action are urgently needed across the globe. This report, Jobs of Tomorrow: Mapping Opportunity in the New Economy, takes an in-depth look into the black box
8、 of new job creation, reviewing the shifting focus of employment to emerging professions of the future, the reasons behind it and what skills will be required by these professions. The analysis presented in this report is based on inno- vative metrics authored in partnership between the World Econom
9、ic Forums New Metrics CoLab in its Platform for the New Economy and Society, and data scientists at three part- ner companies: Burning Glass Technologies, Coursera and LinkedIn. Through these collaborations, the report provides insights into emerging opportunities for employment across the global ec
10、onomy as well as unique detail regarding the skill sets needed to leverage those opportunities. Key findings include: Demand for both “digital” and “human” factors is driving growth in the professions of the future. Seven key professional clusters are emerging in tandem. On the one hand, these refle
11、ct the adoption of new technologiesgiving rise to greater demand for green economy jobs, roles at the forefront of the data and AI economy as well as new roles in engineering, cloud computing and product development. On the other hand, emerging professions also reflect the continuing importance of h
12、uman interaction in the new economy, giving rise to greater demand for care economy jobs; roles in marketing, sales and content production; as well as roles at the forefront of people and culture. Indeed, the future of work shows demand for a broad variety of skills that match these professional opp
13、ortunities, inclusive of both disruptive technical skills but also specialized industry skills and core business skills. There are seven emerging professional clusters and 96 jobs of tomorrow within them that vary in their individual rate of growth and in the scale of job opportunities they offer in
14、 the aggregate. As an innovative feature of this report, the scale of job opportunities is measured as the number of job opportunities offered by the professional cluster for every 10,000 job opportunities offered across the global labour market. In other words, we are able to measure the growing pr
15、ominence of our seven emerging professional clusters relative to the overall labour market. We estimate that, in 2020, the featured professional clusters will represent 506 out of every 10,000 job opportunitiesby 2022, this share will have risen to 611 out of every 10,000 job opportunities. Growth i
16、n these clusters and jobs is largest among care roles and smallest among green professions. Building upon previous analysis from the World Economic Forums 2018 Future of Jobs Report, which forecasts a figure of 133 million new jobs over the 20182022 period as the baseline, the emerging professions o
17、f the future analysed in this report will account for 6.1 million opportunities globally in 20202022. According to these assumptions, if current growth trends hold, these emerging professions will provide 1.7 million new jobs in 2020 and that figure will see a significant increase of 51% to 2.4 mill
18、ion opportunities by 2022. In the aggregate, over the coming three years 37% of projected job opportunities in emerging professions will be in the Care Economy; 17% in Sales, Marketing and Content; 16% in Data and AI; 12% in Engineering and Cloud Computing; and 8% in People and Culture. Current proj
19、ections for Green professions remain low, with 117,200 openings (1.9%) projected for the period spanning 20202022. The highest-growth jobs of tomorrow span all seven profession clusters. The roles with the highest rate of growth within high-volume jobs include Artificial Intelligence Specialists, Me
20、dical Transcriptionists, Data Scientists, Customer Success Specialists and Full Stack Engineers. Within lower- volume jobs, the highest growth is in Landfill Biogas Generation System Technicians, Social Media Assistants, Wind Turbine Service Technicians, Green Marketers and Growth Hackers. The highe
21、st-demand skills required in these emerging professional clusters span both technical and cross-functional skills. Increasing demand for high-growth professions has further driven the value of a range of distinctive skill sets that underwrite these seven professional clusters and their promise of gr
22、owth and prosperity in the new economy. These in-demand skills can be divided into five distinct skills clusters: Business Skills, Specialized Industry Skills, General and Soft Skills, Tech Baseline Skills and Tech Disruptive Skills. While some professional clusterssuch as Data and AI and Engineerin
23、g and Cloud Computing require strong expertise in digital technologies, other high-growth professions place greater emphasis on Business Skills or Specialized Industry Skills. 5 Part 1 Opportunity in the Emerging Labour Market 6 The Fourth Industrial Revolution, demographic change, industrial transi
24、tions and changing consumer needs are cre- ating demand for millions of new jobs, with vast new oppor- tunities for fulfilling peoples potential and aspirations. Yet the threat of unequal opportunity, job displacement and widen- ing income inequality seem ever more present. With socie- tal unrest on
25、 the rise across much of the industrialized and emerging world, collaboration between the public and pri- vate sectors can advance an entirely different agendaone in which peoples futures as well as global economic pros- pects are enhanced by mobilizing worldwide mass action on better education, job
26、s and skills. Within this overarching vision, it is critical that new sources of data and innovative insight development help empower effective, efficient and coordinated action. While the new labour market, spurred by advances in technologies such as data science and artificial intelligence, is cha
27、nging at a rapid pace, new data and metrics can simul- taneously reveal its composition and evolution with unprece- dented detail, depth and dynamism. The approach to these issues outlined in this report is intended to contribute to the World Economic Forums platform to create a “Reskilling Revoluti
28、on” and new opportunities for as many as one billion people in the global labour market over the next 10 years. Emerging Professions and Job Churn Aggregate headline figures that track labour market dyna- mism typically reveal relatively modest annual changes in job growth. However, such figures mas
29、k a more dynamic reality. Those modest gains are commonly made not by the steady growth of existing firms, but result from the changes and churns of economic output and job shiftsfrom less to more successful firms, from shrinking to growing economic sectors, and from declining to emerging occupation
30、s.1 In the United States, for example, over the three decades of 19772005, the annual share of newly created jobsin existing and new firms, sectors and occupationsaveraged 18% of total jobs. Over the same period, 16% of all jobs, on average, were lost annually due to firm closures and sectoral and o
31、ccupational contractions, resulting in an annual net job growth rate of 2%, but an annual 34% job churn rate.2 Similar rates of annual job churn are prevalent across major global economies (averaging 22% in developed economies during 19972004).3 In terms of absolute numbers of job openings in one ye
32、ar, in 2018, the US labour market saw 39 million job openings in a labour market of 156 million employed indi- viduals.4 Job openings might arise due to job transitions by those already in the labour market, because some indi- viduals retire or exit the labour market, or due to economic demand to em
33、ploy fewer or more individuals than have been employed in the past. Importantly, irrespective of the aggregate gross or net number of newly created jobs or job openings, the type of job opportunities which open up will change with the needs of the evolving technological, demographic and economic con
34、text.5 Over the next decade, a non-negligible share of newly created jobs will be in job openings for wholly new occupations, or for existing occupations undergoing signif- icant transformations in terms of their job content and skills requirements. The importance of these emerging profes- sions for
35、 fuelling future economic growth and domino effects in adjacent roles and sectors is considerable. According to one estimate, across the G20, fully meeting the labour market demand for emerging professions and skills to meet the needs of the new technological era could add US$11.5 trillion in GDP gr
36、owth over the next decade.6 For workers, these emerging professions may promise new, attainable pathways to social mobility and prosperity. The rate of emer- gence of new professions is only set to accelerate as a result of the advancing Fourth Industrial Revolution. According to an estimate of the
37、World Economic Forums 2018 Future of Jobs Report, globally, the labour market transformation brought about by the Fourth Indus- trial Revolution may lead to the creation of 133 million new jobs and the simultaneous displacement of 75 million jobs over the 20182022 period.7 Out of this total job chur
38、n, the report estimates that in 2018, wholly new roles accounted for 16% of all jobsa share that will rise to 27% by 2022.8 Further, this net positive job outlook will be concentrated in a set of newly emerging professional clusters. In this report, the World Economic Forum for the first time takes
39、an in-depth look into the black box of new job creation, reviewing the shifting focus of employment to emerging professional clusters and the jobs of tomorrow, and to what fuels this growth and what skills will be required by these professions. These professions of the future reflect increasing dema
40、nd for new services and products across global economies. Seven key professional clusters appear to be emerging in tandem. On the one hand, these reflect the adoption of new technologiesgiving rise to greater demand for green economy jobs, roles at the forefront of the data and AI economy, as well a
41、s new roles in engineering, cloud computing and product development. On the other hand, emerging professions also reflect the continuing importance of human interaction in the new economy, giving rise to greater demand for care economy jobs; roles in marketing, sales and content production; as well
42、as roles at the forefront of people and culture. The analysis presented in this report is based on inno- vative metrics authored in partnership between the World Economic Forums New Metrics CoLab initiative and data scientists at three partner companies: Burning Glass Tech- nologies, Coursera, and L
43、inkedIn. Through these collabo- rations, the report is able to provide innovative insights into emerging opportunities for employment across the global economy as well as unprecedented detail regarding the skill sets needed to leverage those opportunities. The report builds on an earlier piloted New
44、 Metrics collaboration and publication on Data Science in the New Economy.9 7 Mapping Emerging Occupations In 2013, researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne animated a new conversation about the nature of structural changes to labour markets set to displace the work performed by humans.10
45、Over the following half-de- cade a significant amount of research has examined the ways in which the Fourth Industrial Revolution is creating demand for new skill sets, displacing existing jobs as well as giving rise to wholly new ones, with wide-ranging con- sequences for the return on skills in th
46、e form of wages and the prosperity of those in employment today.11 This trans- formation affects all segments of the workforce, holding as much power to affect the livelihoods of those in low-skilled employment as it does professions underpinned by high- skilled expertise.12 Over the past five years, the World Economic Forum has tracked this unfolding transformation, identifying the potential scale of worker displacement13 alongside strat- egies for empowering job transitions from declining to emerging roles.14 In addition to forecasts led by company leaders at the forefront of decision-mak