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1、Global Macro Outlook November 2020 European Quarterly What a year! As this wild and turbulent year draws to a close, we look back in our Global Macro Outlook 2021, and focus on what to expect beyond lockdowns, the virus and the vaccine. We hope you will enjoy our analysis as we move into a year, whi
2、ch as far as we are concerned, could definitely do with somewhat less excitement than 2020 11 November 2020 THINK Global Macro Outlook The darkness before the dawn THINK Economic and Financial Analysis 17 November 2020 Global Macro Outlook November 2020 2 Contents Global Macro Outlook 2021: The dark
3、ness before the dawn 3 The US in 2021: The Biden bounce 5 Eurozone in 2021: Digital, fiscal and monetary changes 8 China in 2021: Quantifying quality growth 11 UK in 2021: Another year of tough decisions 13 Asia in 2021: Ascendent 16 Philippines in 2021: The economy continues to lose steam 20 Brazil
4、 in 2021: The focus is on fiscal policy 24 CEE in 2021: Bracing for the post winter rebound 27 Central Banks in 2021 30 Key political events in 2021 35 Is the ongoing tech war the start of another cold war? 38 International trade in 2021: Plenty of challenges, but recovery in sight 40 What Brexit an
5、d Biden will mean for the world in 2021? 43 How to deal with soaring debt levels 45 Rates: Far from risk free 47 Austria in 2021: This time its different 50 Belgium in 2021: Testing the limits 52 Finland in 2021: Strong Covid-19 report card provides no guarantees 54 France in 2021: Growing crises ma
6、ke recovery uncertain 56 Germany in 2021: The U-turn 59 Greece in 2021: Between vulnerabilities and opportunities 61 Ireland in 2021: The lock of the Irish 63 Italy in 2021: In search of a safe path 65 Portugal in 2021: Structural factors point to a weak recovery 68 Spain in 2021: Many economic hurd
7、les to recovery 70 Forecast Tables 72 Authors Carsten Brzeski Franziska Biehl Rob Carnell Bert Colijn Leon Ernst Padhraic Garvey Gustavo Rangel James Knightley Joanna Konings Petr Krpata Philippe Ledent Nicholas Mapa Charlotte de Montpellier Iris Pang Paolo Pizzoli James Smith Steven Trypsteen Peter
8、 Vanden Houte Global Macro Outlook November 2020 3 Global Macro Outlook 2021: The darkness before the dawn What a year! Who still remembers the start of 2020, when the global economy was discussing the eurozones Japanification, trade wars and how to revive or extend the very mature economic cycle? I
9、n January, Covid-19 was just a regional virus, and none of us thought it could end up becoming the driver of such turbulent year. As the wild year slowly but surely draws to a close we look back on 2020, and see a global economy which had entered the pandemic on a much weaker footing than most previ
10、ous economic crises and ended up in the most severe economic slump in almost a century. Next to the economic fallout of the crisis, 2020 has also been a postmark for other remarkable developments. Just think of the end of austerity-dominated fiscal policies in the eurozone, unprecedented forms of Eu
11、ropean solidarity, Donald Trump becoming the fourth US president since the second world war who (presumably) didnt win a second term, or the Asian-Pacific trade agreement, creating the worlds largest trading bloc without either the US or Europe. In any case, it has been a very remarkable year in all
12、 aspects. Looking ahead, finally, we can spot some silver linings. Research breakthroughs on a vaccine against Covid-19 are now being announced by the week. First, it was the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, a week later Moderna released news about moving into the phase 2 of the FDAs clinical trial. With an
13、y kind of vaccine being rolled out in the first half of 2021, hope is that most economies can return to a new normal. If the next US administration really takes a more cooperative approach to global trade too, risks to the economic outlook could finally, and for the first time in months, be tilted t
14、o the upside. However, for many European countries and probably also the US, things will first get worse before they get better. The winter months will be characterised by more severe lockdowns, requiring a lot of stamina from people and also more fiscal and monetary support from governments and cen
15、tral banks. Although, a low probability scenario, dont rule out a combination of remaining risk factors such as: a delay in rolling out the vaccine due to unexpected side effects, a delay in the start of the European Recovery fund due to vetoes by Hungary and Poland, a more disruptive “no-trade deal
16、” Brexit than anticipated, or unexpected political tensions in the US. As much as we would like to, in the words of Monty Python, look on the bright side, dont grumble give a whistle, the truth is that potential risk factors are still out there. Some would argue, they always are. In our Global Macro
17、 Outlook 2021, we focus on what to expect beyond lockdowns, the virus and the vaccine. Our traditional forecasts and expectations can be found here. It is not always a look on the bright side but rather an forecasts and expectations analysis of what to expect from 2021. If you want, there is more on
18、 our special 2021 hub here, including broad country coverage. We hope that you will enjoy our analysis as we move into 2021. A year, which as far as we are concerned, could definitely do with somewhat less excitement than 2020. Global Macro Outlook November 2020 4 INGs scenarios for Covid-19 and the
19、 global outlook Source: ING ScenarioScenarioScenario United States Modest restrictions in some hotspots as hospitalisations rise, but differ between states. Focus on limiting spread rather than closing businesses US follows Europe into tighter restrictions in a majority of states. Construction and m
20、anufacturing open, but hospitality heavily impacted Further waves of Covid-19 push US into stricter lockdowns. Stay at home orders return. Non-essential retail shuts along with other close-contact services Europe Lockdowns succeed. Case growth falls, economies reopen quickly after short- lived lockd
21、owns. Rapid testing capability and more controllable virus growth allows contact tracing to work more effectively until a vaccine arrives Tight restrictions remain until close to Christmas. Retail and some hospitality reopens or stay open but rules on household mixing remain stricter than before. Fe
22、ars of more circuit breakers remain. Vaccine will be rolled out in H1 21. Lockdowns persist into 2021 or get stricter in the case of light lockdowns. Case growth takes much longer to slow than in April/May. Retail reopens/stays open but strict rules on household mixing largely prevents hospitality a
23、nd tourism restarting until spring Asia Case numbers remain low or very low by international standards, and typically falling. Social distancing restrictions remain tight, but slowly easing, including international travel bubbles Repeated but isolated clusters dealt with by regional test, trace and
24、isolation measures and brought swiftly under control, though no easing in overall distancing conditions Asia follows the rest of the world into a second or in some cases third wave and national measures re- imposed to squeeze out the virus. International travel bubbles closed ABC I Phase 2: Vaccine
25、development and roll-out Phase 1: Covid-19 spread before vaccine ING Base Vaccine ScenarioVaccine ScenarioVaccine Scenario Vaccine timeline Several vaccines viable. Roll-out begins in 2021. First approvals in late-2020, but sufficient rollout not achieved much before summer 2021. Social distancing m
26、easures fully- unwound from 2H21. Handful of vaccines viable. Differential roll-out in 2021 across economies. Countries higher-up the orders list of successful vaccines see earlier roll-out and quicker emergence from social distancing rules. Vaccine development takes longer. Disappointing phase III
27、trials mean no vaccine candidate emerges until later in 2021. Intermittent lockdowns and social distancing continue until 2022 or later IIIII CombinationCombinationCombination Forecasts 2021 GDP US: 4.6% Eurozone: 6.1% 2021 GDP US: 3.6% Eurozone: 3.5% 2021 GDP US: -1.1% Eurozone: -0.5% ING forecasts
28、 under each different scenario combinations IIIIIIABC Covid-19 economic Covid-19 in winterVaccine rolloutING forecast combinations ABCIIIIII += ING Base ING Base Moving towards B from A Scenarios Global Macro Outlook November 2020 5 Back in the red Recent newsflow on the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccine
29、s has undoubtedly come as welcome news, but we know that an inoculation programme remains several months away. With the number of cases rising rapidly and healthcare systems facing increasing challenges there is the very real prospect of individual states having to reintroduce containment measures.
30、As in Europe, we suspect that manufacturing, construction and most retail will remain open, but restrictions on other sectors will still come at a huge economic cost with millions of jobs potentially at risk. Adding to the problems, this comes at a time when millions of households are already experi
31、encing cuts to their incomes as state unemployment benefits expire and Federal government support becomes more limited. The key question is how will politicians respond? Given Donald Trumps legal challenges to the election and claims of fraud, we sense that political animosity could delay or limit a
32、 government response, potentially deepening an economic crisis. The Federal Reserve may feel the need to respond, with more stimulus to try and shore up confidence. Either way, we fear the December-January period will be tough on both a human and an economic level with a probable negative GDP print
33、for the first quarter. The US in 2021: The Biden bounce The US economy faces major near-term challenges, but longer-term we think the market is too cautious on its prospects. A vaccine, a major fiscal stimulus, ongoing Federal Reserve support and a more internationalist approach with allies and trad
34、e partners can lay the foundations for a vigorous recovery from 2Q21 James Knightley Chief International Economist New York +1 646 424 8618 Global Macro Outlook November 2020 6 US Covid-19 cases following Europes surge Source: Macrobond, ING But the turn is coming However, as a vaccine programme sta
35、rts to be rolled out we assume it starts fairly early in the year following regulatory approval this can give a huge lift to both consumer and business sentiment. The prospect of a return to normality, with people willing and able to get a flight, go to the cinema and meet with friends in a bar, cou
36、ld propel growth massively. As we have repeatedly noted, it is higher income households that have been holding back the recovery in consumer spending since they spend so much more of their income on experiences- something they havent been able to do due to Covid-19 restrictions. Assuming a smooth tr
37、ansition to a Joe Biden presidency, the rebound could be further fuelled by a substantial fiscal stimulus. The 5 January runoff for the two Senate seats in Georgia will determine how ambitious he can be. The Democrats would need to defeat both incumbent Republican Senators to regain control and this
38、 looks challenging. Even if they dont pull it off, we still assume a package of around $1 trillion is possible, equivalent to just under 5% of GDP. This would be focused initially on low income households and hard-pressed state and local governments, but is also likely to leave a large chunk of mone
39、y for investment projects. The $2 trillion proposed for Green Energy projects is on the table, but that runs the risk of being curtailed or delayed because of the challenges of getting it through the Senate. Tax hikes are also on the agenda, but we suspect they will be delayed until 2022/23 as next
40、year is all about growth and recouping the 10 million jobs that are still to be regained. With the Federal Reserve set to leave monetary policy ultra-loose for the next couple of years and Biden likely reverting to a more predictable, multilateral approach to international relations this can give bu
41、sinesses the confidence to put money to work through investment and hiring workers. Global Macro Outlook November 2020 7 Jobs market remains much weaker than February Source: Macrobond, ING Could it be too good One increasingly plausible scenario is that inflation expectations start to rise, and the
42、 yield curve steepens more sharply as market pricing for Federal Reserve interest rate increases are brought forward. After all, the pandemic has caused major structural changes to parts of the economy and there is the possibility that robust demand, coupled with supply constraints, leads to rising
43、inflation numbers. For example many entertainment venues, bars and restaurants have gone out of businesses while airlines, car hire firms and hotel chains have cut back dramatically on capacity. A global recovery may put upward pressure on fuel prices, adding to the sense that inflation will move hi
44、gher. Of course, we continue to argue that the US is largely a service sector economy and weak wage growth in an environment of high unemployment will act as an offset. Nonetheless, we wouldnt be surprised to hear the Fed gradually shift its language to indicate that it may not be as late as 2024 be
45、fore they consider raising interest rates. Global Macro Outlook November 2020 8 Key themes in 2021 1. Digitalisation is key to a sustained recovery and investments in the digital economy could be the 2021 game-changer for more convergence in the eurozone. 2. With the need for more growth-oriented pu
46、blic investments, a discussion around more fundamental reform of the fiscal rules for the bloc 3. Expect the ECB to follow in the footsteps of the Fed and apply the principle of symmetry to its inflation target Digitalisation is key to a sustained recovery During the peak of the first wave, we looke
47、d at the vulnerability of eurozone countries to a prolonged Covid-19 slump, which showed that the old eurozone periphery has a larger chance of a weak recovery than core or northern economies. Looking beyond the pace of the immediate recovery, sustainable growth seems to be more dependent on digital
48、isation due to the crisis. This means that countries that have an edge in terms of digitalisation are even more likely to have a stronger structural growth path. Eurozone in 2021: Digital, fiscal and monetary changes A double-dip in the eurozone has become almost inevitable. But despite all the gove
49、rnment support to soften the blow to the economy, the structural face of the crisis will emerge next year. We think there is more in the offing for the eurozone in 2021, and here is what you should watch out for Carsten Brzeski Chief Economist, Eurozone, Germany, Austria, and Global Head of Macro Frankfurt +49 69 27 222 64455 carsten.brzeskiing.de Bert Coli