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1、Global hospitality insights Top 10 thoughts for 2016 B| Global hospitality insights: top 10 thoughts for 2016 ContentsPage 1. Commercial excellence: refining your growth strategy 2. Capital flow from Asia 3. Capital markets: trends in equity, debt and emerging financing platforms 4. Creative develop
2、ment trends and the influences behind them 5. Merger integration considerations 6. Critical success factors for tourism markets 7. Technology and the innovation agenda 8. Global gaming update 9. Supply and demand: the economics of the sharing economy 10. Revenue recognition: considerations for an ev
3、olving standard 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 F ore w ord I n most re gi on a l ma rk e ts, hospi ta l i ty i s i n a sta te of v i b ra n t grow th, a n d i s a c a ta l y st for e c on omi c d e v e l opme n t a n d j ob c re a ti on . F rom the d e pl oy me n t of c a pi ta l fue l i n g tra n sa c t
4、i on a n d d e v e l opme n t a c ti v i ty , to the ope ra ti on a l i mprov e me n ts tha t opti mi z e i n v e stme n t outc ome s, to the i n c re a si n gl y a c ti v e rol e te c hn ol ogy pl a y s i n d a i l y ope ra ti on s, i n d ustry a c ti v i ty i s d y n a mi c a n d progre ss i s e v
5、 i d e n t. Underpinning the rapid pace of growth are two transformative forces creating unique opportunities: innovation and culture. Throughout the industry, innovation is observed in the form of new and improved technologies, brands, guest experiences and business tools. In addition, organization
6、al culture is rising in terms of focus and importance. In the years ahead, a focus on culture by market players will increasingly engage stakeholders and guide business decisions. In this years report, we reflect on the global trends we saw in 2015 and seek to address questions that are top of mind
7、for industry participants in 2016, such as: Whats the right path to accelerate your growth journey? Will your next investor be from another hemisphere or just a click away? Can peer-to-peer benchmarking help you turn up the heat on your competition? Have you fine-tuned your financial reporting? The
8、growth trajectory for the global hospitality industry in 2016 and beyond is deeply rooted in innovation, investment discipline and organizational culture. In the upcoming year, industry participants will need to react to changing market forces, find opportunity in disruption and actively engage empl
9、oyees and stakeholders for the cycle ahead. We are pleased to present this years edition of Global hospitality insights: top 10 thoughts for 2016. It explores top-of-mind issues and previews what lies ahead for hospitality and leisure participants over the upcoming year. It focuses on the key themes
10、 of growth, innovation and culture within the sector. M ic hae l F ishbin EY Global how e v e r, the pa th to progre ss ha s n ot b e e n un i form for a l l pl a y e rs. In 2015, we read headlines of transformational deals dominating the M identify themes that fit strategically, define goals and ag
11、ree on criteria and metrics for filtering ideas; commit resources, including engaging senior stakeholders, and establish a framework for early governance 2. I n v e sti ga ti on : analyze the market thoroughly; seek insights along customer pathways to better understand the customer environment and i
12、nform further decision-making 3 . C on c e pti on : prescreen ideas to determine the most promising and realistic ones; develop a business case and a business model to pilot your new concept or service 4 . T e st: test your new concept or service on the basis of developing strategic partnerships; ad
13、apt business models on the basis of customer and partner feedback, and identify projects for scaling up 5 . I mpl e me n ta ti on : scale up successful pilot projects and deploy across selected markets As hospitality companies understand what drives value for their stakeholders then align their valu
14、e propositions and commercial models to changing market dynamics they will achieve commercial excellence. 4 | Global hospitality insights: t op 10 t h ou g h t s f or 2016 Capital flow from Asia Cross-border capital flow from Asia into global lodging markets i s a n ti c i pa te d to c on ti n ue to
15、 i n c re a se . F or the 11 mon ths e n d i n g N ov e mb e r 2015 , ov e rse a s c a pi ta l a c c oun te d for 3 5 % of global hotel investments, with Asian investors representing a pprox i ma te l y 3 3 % of the se tra n sa c ti on s. 1 I n v e stors a re a ttra c te d b y the hi ghe r prope rty
16、 y i e l d s a n d sa fe i n v e stme n t environments abroad, such as those in North America, Europe and Australia, as opportunities in their domestic markets ha v e d e c l i n e d d ue to d e ma n d a n d suppl y i ssue s. T hi s tre n d has resulted in Asian cross-border hotel transactions reach
17、ing U S $ 11. 0 b i l l i on b y the e n d of N ov e mb e r, a 24 . 0% i n c re a se from the sa me pe ri od l a st y e a r. 2 Asias sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies, particularly those from China, have invested heavily in high-profile assets in gateway cities. As of November, China re
18、mains the most active Asian hotel buyer in 2015, accounting for 44.7% of total invested capital from Asia, followed by Singapore at 16.7% and South Korea at 15.6%.3 In four years, Chinas cross-border hotel investment volume increased from US$240.5 million in 2011 to US$4.9 billion as of November.4 M
19、uch of this growth is attributed to high-profile investments, such as Anbang Insurance Groups US$1.95 billion acquisition of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in February 2015 and Sunshine Insurance Groups US$230.0 million acquisition of the Baccarat Hotel in May 2015, both located in Manhattan.5 This trend
20、 1. “Trends “Cross-Border Capital Tracker,” November 2015, Real Capital Analytics, 21 December 2015. 3. “Cross-Border Capital Tracker,” November 2015, Real Capital Analytics, accessed 21 December 2015. 4. “Cross-Border Capital Tracker,” November 2011, Real Capital Analytics, accessed 21 December 201
21、5; “Cross-Border Capital Tracker,” November 2015, Real Capital Analytics, 21 December 2015. 5. “Property Details Baccarat Hotel,” Real Capital Analytics, 5 November 2015; “Property Details Waldorf Astoria,” Real Capital Analytics, 5 November 2015. is anticipated to continue into 2016 as Chinese insu
22、rers are far from reaching their 15% overseas investment ceiling for all asset types, which was set in 2012.6 According to a statement from the China Insurance Regulatory Commission in 2015, capital invested in overseas markets accounted for just 1.4% of the total assets in Chinas insurance industry
23、.7 Due to intensifying competition in gateway markets, such as Manhattan, San Francisco and Sydney, Asian investors are beginning to enter other markets in search of higher yields. In 2015, a variety of companies in China, Thailand and Singapore have acquired large global hotel portfolios, many of w
24、hich are focused on the limited- service sector and located in secondary and tertiary markets.8 Asset acquisitions remain the primary hotel investment vehicle for Asian investors, with hotel development or redevelopment rarely a stand-alone strategy into overseas markets. 6. “Chinese Insurers Expect
25、ed to Make $73B in Cross-Border Real Estate Deals,” Mingtiandi, chinese-insurers-expected-to-make-73b-in-cross-borderreal-estate-deals/, accessed 8 December 2015. 7. “State Council Routine Policy Briefing,” State Council of the Peoples Republic of China, 23 January 2015, accessed 5 November 2015. 8.
26、 “Bestford Capital,” October 2015, Real Capital Analytics, 5 November 2015. H ow d oe s gl ob a l i n v e stme n t i mpa c t y our l oc a l portfol i o? 2 5 Global hospitality insights: top 10 thoughts for 2016 | In addition to asset acquisitions, Asian companies have entered into joint ventures and
27、 platform-level investments to maximize expansion resources and build immediate brand recognition. During 2015, two Shanghai-based companies made European acquisitions. Fosun International Limited acquired the remaining interest in Club Med that it did not already own, which is valued at US$1.1 bill
28、ion, and Jin Jiang International Hotels (Group) Company Limited acquired Louvre Hotels Group, Europes second-largest hotel group, for US$1.4 billion.9 Meanwhile, Wanxiang Group Corp., a Chinese auto-parts maker, formed a joint venture with US- based Geolo Capital to acquire more than US$1.0 billion
29、of US hotels.10 While transaction activity remains strong, a key concern is how Chinas recent currency devaluation will affect outbound investment, 9. “Chinas Fosun Wins Bidding For Club Med After Two Years,” BBC, , 11 February 2015, accessed 5 November 2015; “Shanghai Jin Jiang to Buy Frances Louvr
30、e Hotels Group,” The Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2015, articles/shanghai-jin-jiang-to-buy-frances-louvre-hotels- group-1421298939, accessed 5 November 2015. 10. “Geolo Capital, Wanxiang Group Corp. to Invest in U.S. Hotels,” Hotel Management, 17 August 2015, www. group-corp-to-invest-in-us-hotel
31、s-3230, accessed 5 November 2015. not only from China, but also from other Asian countries. Chinas unexpected policy change resulted in neighboring countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, to adjust their exchange rates as well.11 A weaker yuan makes acquiring businesses in the United States an
32、d other Western countries more expensive, which some claim may potentially slow cross-border transactions. In spite of this risk, many experts conversely believe that a declining yuan will boost outbound investment. This is because investors are expected to continue buying overseas properties as a h
33、edge against slowing domestic demand, which makes foreign low-risk assets with stable returns increasingly attractive. 11. “Chinas Yuan Move Could Reignite Asian Currency Wars,” Bloomberg, 11 August 2015, www.bloomberg. com/news/articles/2015-08-11/china-s-devaluation- shock-seen-reigniting-currency
34、-wars-in-asia, accessed 5 November 2015. With their greater focus on cross-border investment, Asian investors are likely to continue being major players through 2016. Although the past five years have witnessed capital disbursed primarily into major gateway cities, the crowded nature of these market
35、s is now steering interest toward secondary markets. This broadening reach is not only a sign of growing maturity in Asian investors, but an indication of a movement from strategic to financially motivated acquisitions. With higher investment from Asia anticipated, both domestic and international in
36、vestors must evaluate the impact of increased competition in both primary and secondary markets in years to come. 6| Global hospitality insights: t op 10 t h ou g h t s f or 2016 C a pi ta l ma rk e ts: tre n d s i n e q ui ty , d e b t a n d e me rgi n g financing platforms S upporte d b y stron g
37、hote l ope ra ti n g fun d a me n ta l s, a n abundance of capital and rising investor confidence, global hote l i n v e stme n t c on ti n ue s to a c c e l e ra te . I n N ov e mb e r 2015, EYs Global Capital Confidence Barometer, a b i a n n ua l surv e y of gl ob a l i n d ustry e x e c uti v e
38、s, i n d i c a te d tha t confidence in the global economy is robust, with 50% of hospi ta l i ty c ompa n i e s l i k e l y to pursue a n a c q ui si ti on i n the n e x t 12 mon ths. Wi th i n c re a se d hote l i n v e stme n t a n ti c i pa te d i n 2016, i n v e stors must e v a l ua te the c u
39、rre n t tra n sa c ti on l a n d sc a pe , a s w e l l a s the e q ui ty , d e b t a n d e me rgi n g a n d alternative financing platforms available, to achieve their grow th stra te gy i n the y e a r a he a d . Equity financing In 2016, prominent sources of equity capital and transaction activity
40、 will be generated by private equity and cross-border investor groups.1 After raising capital early in the current cycle, these US and European investor groups will continue to transact on large portfolios and high-quality assets in gateway markets in the United States, United Kingdom and Europe.2 C
41、ross-border investment reached record levels in 2015. Led by outbound capital originating in the United States, China and the Middle East, cross-border hotel investment in 2015 was estimated to exceed US$32.0 billion compared with US$26.0 billion in 2014.3 Recent currency shifts, however, have affec
42、ted the direction of cross-border capital flows. A strengthening US dollar, which reached its highest level against the euro since 2003, has contributed to increased 1.”Hotel Investment Outlook 2015,” Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2015. 2. Ibid. 3. “Cross Border Capital Tracker,” Real Capital Analytic
43、s, 4 January 2016. W i l l y our n e x t i n v e stor b e from a n othe r he mi sphe re , or j ust a c l i c k a w a y ? 3 7 Global hospitality insights: top 10 thoughts for 2016 | investment in Europe among US hotel players.4 Over the past three years, US investment in European hotel assets increas
44、ed from US$2.0 billion in 2013 to an estimated US$6.7 billion in 2015.5 Debt financing Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) continued to be the largest source of debt for the US hotel sector, comprising 39% of originations in 2015, followed by large balance sheet lenders with 30% of new hote
45、l loans.6 However, in the fourth quarter of 2015, CMBS lending began to be impaired by widening spreads and increased regulation. In response, balance sheet and nonbank private equity lenders, or debt funds, are anticipated to increase origination in 2016. In Europe, balance sheet lenders remain the
46、 primary provider of hotel lending, followed by debt funds and investment banks.7 4. “Historical Exchange Rates,” Oanda Forex Trading, accessed 16 November 2015. 5. “US Federal Reserve Bank, Cross Border Capital Tracker,” Real Capital Analytics, 4 January 2016. 6. US Capital Trends, Real Capital Ana
47、lytics, Third Quarter 2015. 7. “European Real Estate Lending Market,” Cushman many tasks can be started well before closing the transaction to facilitate a smooth transition at close; these can include establishing legal entities, obtaining consents from interested parties (lenders, lessors, brands,
48、 etc.), preparing for financial reporting and controlling cash Of equal importance to operational planning is the sharing of the organizations strategic vision. To help ensure integration success, leadership must clearly communicate the strategic vision of the newly formed entity its purpose to key
49、stakeholders, including customers, employees and partners. Defining organizational purpose creates transparency throughout the integration process, engages stakeholders and informs future decision-making. The success or failure of a transaction depends on the level of integration preparation and readiness, engagement with key stakeholders and dedicated resources. Companies that recognize the importance of a structured integration are more likely to achieve superior transaction outcomes. C he c k list f or a su c c e ssf u l inte g