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1、Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global EnergySectorNet Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for theGlobal Energy SectorNet Zero by 2050 Interactiveiea.li/nzeroadmapNet Zero by 2050 Dataiea.li/nzedata The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable en
2、ergy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond
3、.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the d
4、elimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.Source: IEA. All rights reserved.International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.orgIEA member countries: Australia Austria BelgiumCanadaCzech Republic DenmarkEstoniaFinland France Germany Greece Hungar
5、yIreland ItalyJapanKorea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand NorwayPoland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSout
6、h AfricaThailandINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYForeword 3 ForewordWeareapproachingadecisivemomentforinternationaleffortstotackletheclimatecrisisagreatchallengeofourtimes.Thenumberofcountriesthathavepledgedtoreachnetzeroemissionsbymidcenturyorsoonaftercontinuestogrow,butsodoglobalgreenhousegasemissions.Th
7、isgapbetweenrhetoricandactionneedstocloseifwearetohaveafightingchanceofreachingnetzeroby2050andlimitingtheriseinglobaltemperaturesto1.5C.Doingsorequiresnothingshortofatotaltransformationoftheenergysystemsthatunderpinoureconomies.Weareinacriticalyearatthestartofacriticaldecadefortheseefforts.The26thC
8、onferenceoftheParties(COP26)oftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeinNovemberisthefocalpointforstrengtheningglobalambitionsandactiononclimatebybuildingonthefoundationsofthe2015ParisAgreement.TheInternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) has been working hard to support the UK governments COP26Pre
9、sidencytohelpmakeitthesuccesstheworldneeds.IwasdelightedtocohosttheIEACOP26NetZeroSummitwithCOP26PresidentAlokSharmainMarch,wheretopenergyandclimateleadersfrommorethan40countrieshighlightedtheglobalmomentumbehindcleanenergytransitions.Thediscussionsatthateventfedintothisspecialreport,notablythrought
10、heSevenKeyPrinciplesforImplementingNetZerothattheIEApresentedattheSummit,whichhavebeenbackedby22ofourmembergovernmentstodate.Thisreportmapsouthowtheglobalenergysectorcanreachnetzeroby2050.IbelievethereportNetZeroby2050:Aroadmapfortheglobalenergysystemisoneofthemostimportantandchallengingundertakings
11、intheIEAshistory.TheRoadmapistheculminationoftheIEAspioneeringworkonenergydatamodelling,combiningforthefirsttimethecomplexmodelsofourtwoflagshipseries,theWorldEnergyOutlookandEnergyTechnologyPerspectives.ItwillguidetheIEAsworkandwillbeanintegralpartofboththoseseriesgoingforward.Despitethecurrentgapb
12、etweenrhetoricandrealityonemissions,ourRoadmapshowsthattherearestillpathwaystoreachnetzeroby2050.Theoneonwhichwefocusisinouranalysisthemosttechnicallyfeasible,costeffectiveandsociallyacceptable.Evenso,thatpathway remains narrow and extremely challenging, requiring all stakeholders governments,busine
13、sses,investorsandcitizenstotakeactionthisyearandeveryyearaftersothatthegoaldoesnotslipoutofreach.Thisreportsetsoutclearmilestonesmorethan400intotal,spanningallsectorsandtechnologiesforwhatneedstohappen,andwhen,totransformtheglobaleconomyfromonedominatedbyfossilfuelsintoonepoweredpredominantlybyrenew
14、ableenergylikesolarandwind.Ourpathwayrequiresvastamountsofinvestment,innovation,skilfulpolicydesignandimplementation,technologydeployment,infrastructurebuilding,internationalcooperationandeffortsacrossmanyotherareas.SincetheIEAsfoundingin1974,oneofitscoremissionshasbeentopromotesecureandaffordableen
15、ergysuppliestofostereconomicgrowth.ThishasremainedakeyconcernofourRoadmap,drawingonspecialanalysiscarriedoutwiththeInternationalMonetaryFundandtheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis.ItshowsthattheenormousIEA. All rights reserved.4 International Energy Agency | Special Report challengeoft
16、ransformingourenergysystemsisalsoahugeopportunityforoureconomies,withthepotentialtocreatemillionsofnewjobsandboosteconomicgrowth.AnotherguidingprincipleoftheRoadmapisthatcleanenergytransitionsmustbefairandinclusive,leavingnobodybehind.Wehavetoensurethatdevelopingeconomiesreceivethefinancingandtechno
17、logicalknowhowtheyneedtocontinuebuildingtheirenergysystemstomeettheneedsoftheirexpandingpopulationsandeconomiesinasustainableway.Itisamoralimperativetobringelectricitytothehundredsofmillionsofpeoplewhocurrentlyaredeprivedofaccesstoit,themajorityinoftheminAfrica.Thetransitiontonetzeroisforandaboutpeo
18、ple.Itisparamounttoremainawarethatnoteveryworkerinthefossilfuelindustrycaneaseintoacleanenergyjob,sogovernmentsneedtopromotetraininganddevoteresourcestofacilitatingnewopportunities.Citizensmustbeactiveparticipantsintheentireprocess,makingthemfeelpartofthetransitionandnot simply subject to it. These
19、themes are among those being explored by the GlobalCommissiononPeopleCentredCleanEnergyTransitions,whichIconvenedatthestartof2021toexaminehowtoenablecitizenstobenefitfromtheopportunitiesandnavigatethe disruptions of the shift to a clean energy economy. Headed by Prime MinisterMetteFrederiksen of Den
20、mark and composed of government leaders, ministers andprominentthinkers,theGlobalCommissionwillmakepublicitskeyrecommendationsaheadofCOP26inNovember.ThepathwaylaidoutinourRoadmapisglobalinscope,buteachcountrywillneedtodesignitsownstrategy,takingintoaccountitsspecificcircumstances.Thereisnoonesizefit
21、sallapproachtocleanenergytransitions.Plansneedtoreflectcountriesdifferingstagesofeconomic development: in our pathway, advanced economies reach net zero beforedevelopingeconomiesdo.Astheworldsleadingenergyauthority,theIEAstandsreadytoprovidegovernmentswithsupportandadviceastheydesignandimplementthei
22、rownroadmaps,andtoencouragetheinternationalcooperationacrosssectorsthatissoessentialtoreachingnetzeroby2050.ThislandmarkreportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithouttheextraordinarydedicationoftheIEAcolleagueswhohaveworkedsotirelesslyandrigorouslyonit.Iwouldliketothankthe entire team under the outstanding l
23、eadership of my colleagues LauraCozzi andTimurGl.Theworldhasahugechallengeaheadofittomovenetzeroby2050fromanarrowpossibilitytoapracticalreality.Globalcarbondioxideemissionsarealreadyreboundingsharplyaseconomiesrecoverfromlastyearspandemicinducedshock.Itispasttimeforgovernmentstoact,andactdecisivelyt
24、oacceleratethecleanenergytransformation.Asthisreportshows,weattheIEAarefullycommittedtoleadingthoseefforts.DrFatihBirolExecutiveDirectorInternationalEnergyAgencyAcknowledgements 5 AcknowledgementsThisstudy,acrossagencyeffort,waspreparedbytheWorldEnergyOutlookteamandtheEnergyTechnologyPerspectivestea
25、m.ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyLauraCozzi,ChiefEnergyModellerandHeadofDivisionforEnergyDemandOutlook,andTimurGl,HeadofDivisionforEnergyTechnologyPolicy.Theleadauthorsandcoordinatorswere:StphanieBouckaert,AraceliFernandezPales,ChristopheMcGlade, UweRemme and BrentWanner. LaszloVarro, Chief Economi
26、st,DavideDAmbrosioandThomasSpencerwerealsopartofthecoreteam.Theothermainauthorswere:ThibautAbergel(buildings),YasmineArsalane(economicoutlook,electricity),PraveenBains(biofuels),JoseMiguelBermudezMenendez(hydrogen),ElizabethConnelly (transport), DanielCrow (behaviour), AmritaDasgupta (innovation),Ch
27、iaraDelmastro (buildings), TimothyGoodson (buildings, bioenergy), AlexandreGouy(industry),PaulHugues(industry),LillyLee(transport),PeterLevi(industry),HanaMandova (industry), ArianeMillot (buildings), PaweOlejarnik (fossil fuel supply),LeonardoPaoli (innovation, transport),FaidonPapadimoulis (data m
28、anagement),SebastianPapapanagiotou(electricitynetworks),FrancescoPavan(hydrogen),ApostolosPetropoulos (transport), RyszardPopiech (data management), LeonieStaas(behaviour,industry),JacopoTattini(transport),JacobTeter(transport),GianlucaTonolo(energyaccess),TiffanyVass(industry)andDanielWetzel(jobs).
29、Other contributors were: Lucila Arboleya Sarazola, Simon Bennett, Cyril Cassisa, ArthurContejean, Musa Erdogan, Enrique Gutierrez Tavarez, Taku Hasegawa, Shai Hassid, ZoeHungerford, TaeYoon Kim, Vanessa Koh, Luca Lo Re, Christopher Lowans, RaimundMalischek,MariachiaraPolisenaandPerAndersWidell.Carol
30、ineAbettan,TeresaCoon,MarinaDosSantos,MarieFournierSniehotta,RekaKoczkaandDianaLouisprovidedessentialsupport.EdmundHoskercarriededitorialresponsibilityandDebraJustuswasthecopyeditor.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),inparticularBenjaminHunt,FlorenceJaumotte,JaredThomasBebee and SusannaMursula, partn
31、ered with the IEA to provide themacroeconomicanalysis.TheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),inparticularPeterRafaj,GregorKiesewetter,WolfgangSchpp,ChrisHeyes,ZbigniewKlimont,PallavPurohit,LauraWarnecke,BinhNguyen,NicklasForsell,StefanFrank,PetrHavlikandMykolaGusti, partnered with
32、 the IEA to provide analysis and related indicators on airpollutionandgreenhousegasemissionsfromlanduse.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management andnumerous other colleagues within the International Energy Agency. In particularKeisukeSadamori, MechthildWrsdrfer, AmosBr
33、omhead, DanDorner, NickJohnstone,PascalLaffont,TorilBosoni,PeterFraser,PaoloFrankl,TimGould,TomHowes,BrianMotherway,AadvanBohemen,CsarAlejandroHernndez,SamanthaMcCulloch,SaraMoarif,HeymiBahar,AdamBaylinStern,NielsBerghout,SaraBudinis,JeanBaptisteDubreuil,CarlosFernndezAlvarez,IlkkaHannula,JeremyMoor
34、houseandStefanLorenczik.IEA. All rights reserved.6 International Energy Agency | Special Report Valuableinputtotheanalysiswasprovidedby:TrevorMorgan(independentconsultant)andDavidWilkinson(independentconsultant).ThanksgototheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO),particularlytoJadMouawad,HeadofCDO,a
35、ndtoAstridDumond,JonCuster,TanyaDyhin,MerveErdil,GraceGordon,ChristopherGully,JethroMullen,JuliePuech,RobStone,GregoryViscusi,ThereseWalshandWonjikYangfortheirhelpinproducingandpromotingthereportandwebsitematerials.Finally,thankstoIvoLetraoftheIEAInformationSystemsUnitforhisessentialsupportintheprod
36、uctionprocess,andtotheIEAsOfficeofLegalCounsel,OfficeofManagementandAdministration,andEnergyDataCentrefortheassistanceeachprovidedthroughoutthepreparationofthisreport.PeerreviewersManyseniorgovernmentofficialsandinternationalexpertsprovidedinputandreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theircommentsan
37、dsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:AimeeAguilarJaberOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)KeigoAkimotoResearchInstituteofInnovativeTechnologyfortheEarth,JapanDougArentNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),UnitedStatesDanielBalogPermanentDelegationofHungarytotheOECDGeorgBumlVo
38、lkswagenHarmeetBawaHitachiABBPowerGridsPeteBettsGranthamResearchInstituteonClimateChangeandtheEnvironment,UnitedKingdomSamaBilbaoyLeonWorldNuclearAssociationDianeCameronNuclearEnergyAgencyRebeccaCollyerEuropeanClimateFoundationRussellConklinUSDepartmentofEnergyFranoisDassaEDFJeltedeJongMinistryofEco
39、nomicAffairsandClimatePolicy,TheNetherlandsCarldeMarArcelorMittalGuillaumeDeSmedtAirLiquideAgustinDelgadoIberdrolaJohannaFiksdahlPermanentDelegationofNorwaytotheOECDAlanFinkelSpecialAdvisortotheAustralianGovernmentonLowEmissionsTechnologyNiklasForsellInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(I
40、IASA)JamesFosterUKDepartmentforBusiness,EnergyandIndustrialStrategyHiroyukiFukuiToyotaRosannaFuscoEniLiGaoMinistryofEcologyandEnvironmentofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaAcknowledgements 7 FranoisGautierPermanentDelegationofFrancetotheOECDOliverGedenGermanInstituteforInternationalandSecurityAffairsDolfGie
41、lenInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)FrancescaGostinelliEnelJaeH.JungMinistryofForeignAffairs,RepublicofKoreaMichaelHackethalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandIndustry,GermanyPeterWoodShellSelwinHartUnitedNationsDavidHawkingsNaturalResourcesDefenseCouncilJacobHerbersUSDepartmentofEnergyTakashiHong
42、oMitsui&Co.GlobalStrategicStudiesInstitute,JapanChristinaHoodCompassClimate,NewZealandMichaelKellyWorldLPGAssociationSirDavidKingCambridgeUniversityKenKoyamaTheInstituteofEnergyEconomics,JapanFabienKreuzerDGEnergy,EuropeanCommissionJoyceLeeGlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC)ChenLinhaoMinistryofScienceandT
43、echnologyofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaToddLitmanVictoriaTransportPolicyInstitute,CanadaClaudeLoreaGlobalCementandConcreteAssociationRituMathurTheEnergyandResourcesInstitute(TERI)VincentMinierSchneiderElectricSteveNadelAmericanCouncilforanEnergyEfficientEconomyStefanNowakTechnologyCollaborationProgramm
44、eonPhotovoltaicPowerSystems(PVPSTCP)BrianGallachirMaREI,SFIResearchCentreforEnergy,ClimateandMarine,UniversityCollegeCorkHenriPaillreInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)YongdukPakKoreaEnergyEconomicsInstitute(KEEI)AlessandraPastorelliPermanentDelegationofItalytotheOECDJonathanPershingUSStateDepartm
45、entGlenPetersCentreforInternationalClimateandEnvironmentalResearch(CICERO)StephaniePfeiferInstitutionalInvestorsGrouponClimateChange(IIGCC)CdricPhilibertIndependentconsultantLynnPriceLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory,UnitedStatesAndrewPurvisWorldSteelJuliaReinaudBreakthroughEnergyYaminaSahebOpenEXP
46、IgnacioSantelicesSustainableEnergyAgency,ChileAndreasSchferUniversityCollegeLondonVivianScottTheUniversityofEdinburgh8 International Energy Agency | Special ReportSimonSharpeCabinetOffice,UnitedKingdomAdnanShihabEldinFormerlyKuwaitFoundationfortheAdvancementofSciencesToshiyukiShiraiMinistryofEconomy
47、,TradeandIndustry,JapanAdamSieminskiKAPSARCStephanSingerClimateActionNetworkVarunSivaramUSStateDepartmentJimSkeaImperialCollegeLondonJeffStehmTaskForceonClimateRelatedFinancialDisclosuresJonathanSternOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesWimThomasIndependentconsultantDavidTurkUSDepartmentofEnergyFritjofUna
48、nderResearchCouncilofNorwayRobvanderMeerTheEuropeanCementAssociation(CEMBUREAU)NovanHulstInternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomyTomvanIerlandDGforClimateAction,EuropeanCommissionDavidVictorUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiegoAmandaWilsonNaturalResourcesCanadaHaraldWinklerUniversityofC
49、apeTownMarkusWolfElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI),UnitedStatesMarkusWrkeSwedishEnergyResearchCentreWilliamZimmernBPTheindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisstudyarenotresponsibleforanyopinionsorjudgmentsitcontains.AllerrorsandomissionsaresolelytheresponsibilityoftheIEA.Thisdocumentanda
50、nymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Commentsandquestionsarewelcomeandshouldbeaddressedto:LauraCozziandTimurGlDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooksInter
51、nationalEnergyAgency9,ruedelaFdration75739ParisCedex15FranceEmail:IEANZE2050iea.orgWeb:www.iea.orgTable of Contents 9 TableofContentsForeword.3Acknowledgements.5Executivesummary.13Announcednetzeropledgesandtheenergysector291.1 Introduction .301.2 Emissionsreductiontargetsandnetzeropledges.311.2.1 Na
52、tionallyDeterminedContributions.311.2.2 Netzeroemissionspledges.321.3 OutlookforemissionsandenergyintheSTEPS.361.3.1 CO2emissions.361.3.2 Totalenergysupply,totalfinalconsumptionandelectricitygeneration.371.3.3 Emissionsfromexistingassets.391.4 AnnouncedPledgesCase .401.4.1 CO2emissions.411.4.2 Total
53、energysupply.431.4.3 Totalfinalconsumption.441.4.4 Electricitygeneration .45AglobalpathwaytonetzeroCOemissionsin2050472.1 Introduction .482.2 Scenariodesign .482.2.1 PopulationandGDP .502.2.2 EnergyandCO2prices .512.3 CO2emissions.532.4 Totalenergysupplyandtotalfinalconsumption.562.4.1 Totalenergysu
54、pply.562.4.2 Totalfinalconsumption.602.5 Keypillarsofdecarbonisation.642.5.1 Energyefficiency .652.5.2 Behaviouralchange.672.5.3 Electrification.7012IEA. All rights reserved.10 International Energy Agency | Special Report 2.5.4 Renewables.732.5.5 Hydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels .752.5.6 Bioenergy.772.
55、5.7 Carboncapture,utilisationandstorage.792.6 Investment.812.7 Keyuncertainties.832.7.1 Behaviouralchange.842.7.2 Bioenergyandlandusechange .902.7.3 CCUSappliedtoemissionsfromfossilfuels.94Sectoralpathwaystonetzeroemissionsby2050993.1 Introduction .1003.2 Fossilfuelsupply.1003.2.1 EnergytrendsintheN
56、etZeroEmissionsScenario.1003.2.2 Investmentinoilandgas.1033.2.3 Emissionsfromfossilfuelproduction .1043.3 Lowemissionsfuelsupply.1053.3.1 EnergytrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenario.1053.3.2 Biofuels.1063.3.3 Hydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels .1083.3.4 Keymilestonesanddecisionpoints .1113.4 Electricitysec
57、tor.1133.4.1 EnergyandemissionstrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenario.1133.4.2 Keymilestonesanddecisionpoints .1173.5 Industry.1213.5.1 EnergyandemissiontrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenario.1213.5.2 Keymilestonesanddecisionpoints .1293.6 Transport.1313.6.1 EnergyandemissiontrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsSce
58、nario.1313.6.2 Keymilestonesanddecisionpoints .1383.7 Buildings.1413.7.1 EnergyandemissiontrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenario.1413.7.2 Keymilestonesanddecisionpoints .1473Table of Contents 11 Widerimplicationsofachievingnetzeroemissions1514.1 Introduction .1524.2 Economy.1534.2.1 Investmentandfinanc
59、ing.1534.2.2 Economicactivity.1554.2.3 Employment.1574.3 Energyindustry .1604.3.1 Oilandgas.1604.3.2 Coal.1624.3.3 Electricity.1634.3.4 Energyconsumingindustries.1654.4 Citizens.1674.4.1 EnergyrelatedSustainableDevelopmentGoals.1674.4.2 Affordability.1704.4.3 Behaviouralchanges.1734.5 Governments.17
60、54.5.1 Energysecurity.1754.5.2 Infrastructure .1804.5.3 Taxrevenuesfromretailenergysales.1834.5.4 Innovation .1844.5.5 Internationalcooperation.187Annexes191AnnexA.Tablesforscenarioprojections.193AnnexB.Technologycosts.201AnnexC.Definitions.203AnnexD.References.2174IEA. All rights reserved.Summary f
61、or policy makers 13 SummaryforpolicymakersTheenergysectoristhesourceofaroundthreequartersofgreenhousegasemissionstodayandholdsthekeytoavertingtheworsteffectsofclimatechange,perhapsthegreatestchallengehumankindhasfaced.Reducingglobalcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionstonetzeroby2050isconsistentwitheffortstol
62、imitthelongtermincreaseinaverageglobaltemperaturesto1.5C.Thiscallsfornothinglessthanacompletetransformationofhowweproduce,transportandconsumeenergy.Thegrowingpoliticalconsensusonreachingnetzeroiscauseforconsiderableoptimismabouttheprogresstheworldcanmake,butthechangesrequiredtoreachnetzeroemissionsg
63、loballyby2050arepoorlyunderstood.Ahugeamountofworkisneededtoturntodaysimpressiveambitionsintoreality,especiallygiventherangeofdifferentsituationsamongcountriesandtheirdifferingcapacitiestomakethenecessarychanges.ThisspecialIEAreportsetsoutapathwayforachievingthisgoal,resultinginacleanandresilientene
64、rgysystemthatwouldbringmajorbenefitsforhumanprosperityandwellbeing.Theglobalpathwaytonetzeroemissionsby2050detailedinthisreportrequiresallgovernmentstosignificantlystrengthenandthensuccessfullyimplementtheirenergyandclimatepolicies.Commitmentsmadetodatefallfarshortofwhatisrequiredbythatpathway.Thenu
65、mberofcountriesthathavepledgedtoachievenetzeroemissionshasgrownrapidlyoverthelastyearandnowcoversaround70%ofglobalemissionsofCO2.Thisisahugestepforward.However,mostpledgesarenotyetunderpinnedbyneartermpoliciesandmeasures.Moreover,evenifsuccessfullyfulfilled,thepledgestodatewouldstillleavearound22bil
66、liontonnesofCO2emissionsworldwidein2050.Thecontinuationofthattrendwouldbeconsistentwithatemperaturerisein2100ofaround2.1C.Globalemissionsfellin2020becauseoftheCovid19crisisbutarealreadyreboundingstronglyaseconomiesrecover.Furtherdelayinactingtoreversethattrendwillputnetzeroby2050outofreach.InthisSum
67、maryforPolicyMakers,weoutlinetheessentialconditionsfortheglobalenergysectortoreachnetzeroCO2emissionsby2050.Thepathwaydescribedindepthinthisreportachievesthisobjectivewithnooffsetsfromoutsidetheenergysector,andwithlowrelianceonnegativeemissionstechnologies.Itisdesignedtomaximisetechnicalfeasibility,
68、costeffectivenessandsocialacceptancewhileensuringcontinuedeconomicgrowthandsecureenergysupplies.Wehighlightthepriorityactionsthatareneededtodaytoensuretheopportunityofnetzeroby2050narrowbutstillachievableisnotlost.Thereportprovidesaglobalview,butcountriesdonotstartinthesameplaceorfinishatthesametime
69、:advanced economies have to reach net zero before emerging markets and developingeconomies,andassistothersingettingthere.Wealsorecognisethattheroutemappedouthereisapath,notnecessarilythepath,andsoweexaminesomekeyuncertainties,notablyconcerningtherolesplayedbybioenergy,carboncaptureandbehaviouralchan
70、ges.Gettingtonetzerowillinvolvecountlessdecisionsbypeopleacrosstheworld,butourprimaryaimistoinformthedecisionsmadebypolicymakers,whohavethegreatestscopetomovetheworldclosertoitsclimategoals.IEA. All rights reserved.14 International Energy Agency | Special Report Netzeroby2050hingesonanunprecedentedc
71、leantechnologypushto2030Thepathtonetzeroemissionsisnarrow:stayingonitrequiresimmediateandmassivedeployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies. In the netzeroemissionspathwaypresentedinthisreport,theworldeconomyin2030issome40%largerthantodaybutuses7%lessenergy.Amajorworldwidepus
72、htoincreaseenergyefficiencyisan essential part of these efforts, resulting in the annual rate of energy intensityimprovementsaveraging4%to2030aboutthreetimestheaveragerateachievedoverthelasttwodecades.EmissionsreductionsfromtheenergysectorarenotlimitedtoCO2:inourpathway,methaneemissionsfromfossilfue
73、lsupplyfallby75%overthenexttenyearsasaresult of a global, concerted effort to deploy all available abatement measures andtechnologies.Evercheaperrenewableenergytechnologiesgiveelectricitytheedgeintheracetozero.Ourpathwaycallsforscalingupsolarandwindrapidlythisdecade,reachingannualadditionsof630gigaw
74、atts(GW)ofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)and390GWofwindby2030,fourtimestherecordlevelssetin2020.ForsolarPV,thisisequivalenttoinstallingtheworldscurrentlargestsolarparkroughlyeveryday.Hydropowerandnuclear,thetwolargestsourcesoflowcarbon electricity today, provide an essential foundation for transitions. As th
75、eelectricitysectorbecomescleaner,electrificationemergesasacrucialeconomywidetoolforreducingemissions.Electricvehicles(EVs)gofromaround5%ofglobalcarsalestomorethan60%by2030.Make the 2020s the decade of massive clean energy expansion Allthetechnologiesneededtoachievethenecessarydeepcutsinglobalemissio
76、nsby2030alreadyexist,andthepoliciesthatcandrivetheirdeploymentarealreadyproven.AstheworldcontinuestograpplewiththeimpactsoftheCovid19pandemic,itisessential that the resulting wave of investment and spending to support economicrecoveryisalignedwiththenetzeropathway.Policiesshouldbestrengthenedtospeed
77、thedeploymentofcleanandefficientenergytechnologies.Mandatesandstandardsarevital to drive consumer spending and industry investment into the most efficienttechnologies.Targetsandcompetitiveauctionscanenablewindandsolartoacceleratetheelectricitysectortransition.Fossilfuelsubsidyphaseouts,carbonpricing
78、andothermarketreformscanensureappropriatepricesignals.Policiesshouldlimitorprovidedisincentivesfortheuseofcertainfuelsandtechnologies,suchasunabatedcoalfiredpower stations, gas boilers and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles.Governmentsmustleadtheplanningandincentivisingofthemassiveinfr
79、astructureinvestment,includinginsmarttransmissionanddistributiongrids.P R I O R I T Y A C T I O NSummary for policy makers 15 Key clean technologies ramp up by 2030 in the net zero pathway Note:MJ=megajoules;GDP=grossdomesticproductinpurchasingpowerparity.Netzeroby2050requireshugeleapsincleanenergyi
80、nnovationReachingnetzeroby2050requiresfurtherrapiddeploymentofavailabletechnologiesaswellaswidespreaduseoftechnologiesthatarenotonthemarketyet.Majorinnovationeffortsmustoccuroverthisdecadeinordertobringthesenewtechnologiestomarketintime.MostoftheglobalreductionsinCO2emissionsthrough2030inourpathwayc
81、omefromtechnologiesreadilyavailabletoday.Butin2050,almosthalfthereductionscomefromtechnologiesthatarecurrentlyatthedemonstrationorprototypephase.Inheavyindustryandlongdistancetransport,theshareofemissionsreductionsfromtechnologiesthatarestillunderdevelopmenttodayisevenhigher.Thebiggestinnovationoppo
82、rtunitiesconcernadvancedbatteries,hydrogenelectrolysers,anddirectaircaptureandstorage.Together,thesethreetechnologyareasmakevitalcontributionsthereductionsinCO2emissionsbetween2030and2050inourpathway.Innovationoverthenexttenyearsnotonlythroughresearchanddevelopment(R&D)anddemonstrationbutalsothrough
83、deploymentneedstobeaccompaniedbythelargescaleconstructionoftheinfrastructurethetechnologieswillneed.ThisincludesnewpipelinestotransportcapturedCO2emissionsandsystemstomovehydrogenaroundandbetweenportsandindustrialzones.020202030x80002030x4SolarPVWindCapacityadditions
84、(GW)Electriccarsales(millions)Energy intensityofGDP(MJperUSDppp)304% peryearIEA. All rights reserved.16 International Energy Agency | Special Report Prepare for the next phase of the transition by boosting innovation Clean energy innovation must accelerate rapidly, with governments puttin
85、g R&D,demonstrationanddeploymentatthecoreofenergyandclimatepolicy.GovernmentR&Dspendingneedstobeincreasedandreprioritised.Criticalareassuchaselectrification,hydrogen,bioenergyandcarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)todayreceiveonlyaroundonethirdofthelevelofpublicR&Dfundingofthemoreestablished lo
86、wcarbon electricity generation and energy efficiency technologies.Supportisalsoneededtoacceleratetherolloutofdemonstrationprojects,toleverageprivateinvestmentinR&D,andtoboostoveralldeploymentlevelstohelpreducecosts.AroundUSD90billionofpublicmoneyneedstobemobilisedgloballyassoonaspossibletocompleteap
87、ortfolioofdemonstrationprojectsbefore2030.Currently,onlyroughlyUSD25billionisbudgetedforthatperiod.Developinganddeployingthesetechnologieswould create major new industries, as well as commercial and employmentopportunities.Annual CO2 emissions savings in the net zero pathway, relative to 2020 20%40%
88、60%80%100%20302050BehaviourchangesTechnologiesinthemarketTechnologiesunderdevelopmentP R I O R I T Y A C T I O NSummary for policy makers 17 ThetransitiontonetzeroisforandaboutpeopleAtransitionofthescaleandspeeddescribedbythenetzeropathwaycannotbeachievedwithoutsustainedsupportandparticipationfromci
89、tizens.Thechangeswillaffectmultipleaspectsofpeopleslivesfromtransport,heatingandcookingtourbanplanningandjobs.Weestimatethataround55%ofthecumulativeemissionsreductionsinthepathwayarelinkedtoconsumerchoicessuchaspurchasinganEV,retrofittingahousewithenergyefficient technologies or installing a heat pu
90、mp. Behavioural changes, particularly inadvancedeconomiessuchasreplacingcartripswithwalking,cyclingorpublictransport,or foregoing a longhaul flight also provide around 4% of the cumulative emissionsreductions.Providingelectricitytoaround785millionpeoplethathavenoaccessandcleancookingsolutionsto2.6bi
91、llionpeoplethatlackthoseoptionsisanintegralpartofourpathway.Emissionsreductionshavetogohandinhandwitheffortstoensureenergyaccessforallby2030.ThiscostsaroundUSD40billionayear,equaltoaround1%ofaverageannualenergysectorinvestment,whilealsobringingmajorcobenefitsfromreducedindoorairpollution.Someofthech
92、angesbroughtbythecleanenergytransformationmaybechallengingtoimplement,sodecisionsmustbetransparent,justandcosteffective.Governmentsneedtoensurethatcleanenergytransitionsarepeoplecentredandinclusive.Householdenergyexpenditureasashareofdisposableincomeincludingpurchasesofefficientappliancesandfuelbill
93、srisesmodestlyinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesinournetzeropathwayasmorepeoplegainaccesstoenergyanddemandformodernenergyservicesincreases rapidly. Ensuring the affordability of energy for households demands closeattention:policytoolsthatcandirectsupporttothepoorestincludetaxcredits,loansandtarg
94、etedsubsidies.Clean energy jobs will grow strongly but must be spread widely Energy transitions have to take account of the social and economic impacts onindividualsandcommunities,andtreatpeopleasactiveparticipants.Thetransitiontonetzerobringssubstantialnewopportunitiesforemployment,with14millionjob
95、screatedby2030inourpathwaythankstonewactivitiesandinvestmentincleanenergy.Spendingonmoreefficientappliances,electricandfuelcellvehicles,andbuildingretrofitsandenergyefficientconstructionwouldrequireafurther16millionworkers.Buttheseopportunitiesareoftenindifferentlocations,skillsetsandsectorsthanthej
96、obsthatwillbelostasfossilfuelsdecline.Inourpathway,around5millionjobsarelost.Mostofthosejobsarelocatedclosetofossilfuelresources,andmanyarewellpaid,meaningstructuralchangescancauseshocksforcommunitieswithimpactsthatpersistovertime.ThisrequirescarefulpolicyattentiontoaddresstheemploymentP R I O R I T
97、 Y A C T I O NIEA. All rights reserved.18 International Energy Agency | Special Report losses.Itwillbevitaltominimisehardshipsassociatedwiththesedisruptions,suchasbyretrainingworkers,locatingnewcleanenergyfacilitiesinheavilyaffectedareaswhereverpossible,andprovidingregionalaid.Global employment in e
98、nergy supply in the net zero pathway, 2019-2030 AnenergysectordominatedbyrenewablesInthenetzeropathway,globalenergydemandin2050isaround8%smallerthantoday,butitservesaneconomymorethantwiceasbigandapopulationwith2billionmorepeople.Moreefficientuseofenergy,resourceefficiencyandbehaviouralchangescombine
99、tooffsetincreasesindemandforenergyservicesastheworldeconomygrowsandaccesstoenergyisextendedtoall.Insteadoffossilfuels,theenergysectorisbasedlargelyonrenewableenergy.Twothirdsoftotalenergysupplyin2050isfromwind,solar,bioenergy,geothermalandhydroenergy.Solarbecomesthelargestsource,accountingforonefift
100、hofenergysupplies.SolarPVcapacityincreases20foldbetweennowand2050,andwindpower11fold.Netzeromeansahugedeclineintheuseoffossilfuels.Theyfallfromalmostfourfifthsoftotalenergysupplytodaytoslightlyoveronefifthby2050.Fossilfuelsthatremainin2050areusedingoodswherethecarbonisembodiedintheproductsuchasplast
101、ics,infacilitiesfittedwithCCUS,andinsectorswherelowemissionstechnologyoptionsarescarce.Electricityaccountsforalmost50%oftotalenergyconsumptionin2050.Itplaysakeyroleacrossallsectorsfromtransportandbuildingstoindustryandisessentialtoproducelowemissionsfuelssuchashydrogen.Toachievethis,totalelectricity
102、generationincreasesover20406020192030MillionjobsBioenergyElectricityCoalOilandgasLossesGrowthSummary for policy makers 19 twoandahalftimesbetweentodayand2050.Atthesametime,noadditionalnewfinalinvestmentdecisionsshouldbetakenfornewunabatedcoalplants,theleastefficientcoalplants are phased out by 2030,
103、 and the remaining coal plants still in use by 2040 areretrofitted.By2050,almost90%ofelectricitygenerationcomesfromrenewablesources,withwindandsolarPVtogetheraccountingfornearly70%.Mostoftheremaindercomesfromnuclear.Emissionsfromindustry,transportandbuildingstakelongertoreduce.Cuttingindustryemissio
104、nsby95%by2050involvesmajoreffortstobuildnewinfrastructure.AfterrapidinnovationprogressthroughR&D,demonstrationandinitialdeploymentbetweennowand2030tobringnewcleantechnologiestomarket,theworldthenhastoputthemintoaction.Everymonthfrom2030onwards,tenheavyindustrialplantsareequippedwithCCUS,threenewhydr
105、ogenbasedindustrialplantsarebuilt,and2GWofelectrolysercapacityareaddedatindustrialsites.Policiesthatendsalesofnewinternalcombustionenginecarsby2035andboostelectrificationunderpinthemassivereductionintransportemissions.In2050,carsontheroadworldwiderunonelectricityorfuelcells.Lowemissionsfuelsareessen
106、tialwhereenergyneedscannoteasilyoreconomicallybemetbyelectricity.Forexample,aviationrelieslargelyonbiofuelsandsyntheticfuels,andammoniaisvitalforshipping.Inbuildings,bansonnewfossilfuelboilersneedtostartbeingintroducedgloballyin2025,drivingupsalesofelectricheatpumps.Mostoldbuildingsandallnewonescomp
107、lywithzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodes.1Set near-term milestones to get on track for long-term targets Governmentsneedtoprovidecrediblestepbystepplanstoreachtheirnetzerogoals,buildingconfidenceamonginvestors,industry,citizensandothercountries.Governmentsmustputinplacelongtermpolicyframeworkstoallo
108、wallbranchesofgovernmentandstakeholderstoplanforchangeandfacilitateanorderlytransition.Longtermnationallowemissionsstrategies,calledforbytheParisAgreement,cansetoutavisionfornationaltransitions,asthisreporthasdoneonagloballevel.Theselongtermobjectivesneedtobelinkedtomeasurableshorttermtargetsandpoli
109、cies.Ourpathwaydetailsmorethan400sectoralandtechnologymilestonestoguidetheglobaljourneytonetzeroby2050.1Azerocarbonreadybuildingishighlyenergyefficientandeitherusesrenewableenergydirectlyorusesanenergysupplythatwillbefullydecarbonisedby2050,suchaselectricityordistrictheat.P R I O R I T Y A C T I O N
110、IEA. All rights reserved.20 International Energy Agency | Special ReportKey milestones in the pathway to net zero 5055402020202520302035204020452050GtCOBuildingsTransportIndustryElectricityandheatOther2045150 Mtlowcarbonhydrogen850GWelectrolysers435Mtlowcarbonhydrogen3000GWelectrolysers4G
111、tCO2capturedPhaseoutofunabatedcoalinadvancedeconomies2030Universalenergyaccess60%ofglobalcarsalesareelectric1020GWannualsolarandwindadditionsAllnewbuildingsarezerocarbonreadyMostnewcleantechnologiesinheavyindustrydemonstratedatscaleAllindustrialelectricmotorsalesarebestinclassNonewICEcarsales2035Ove
112、rallnetzeroemissionselectricityinadvancedeconomiesMostappliancesandcoolingsystemssoldarebestinclass50%ofheavytrucksalesareelectric7.6GtCO2capturedNonewunabatedcoalplantsapprovedfordevelopment20212025Nonewsalesoffossilfuelboilers2040Morethan90%ofheavyindustrialproductionislowemissions2050Almost70%ofe
113、lectricitygenerationgloballyfromsolarPVandwindMorethan85%ofbuildingsarezerocarbonready50%ofheatingdemandmetbyheatpumpsPhaseoutofallunabatedcoalandoilpowerplantsNetzeroemissionselectricityglobally50%offuelsusedinaviationarelowemissionsAround90%ofexistingcapacityinheavyindustriesreachesendofinvestment
114、cycle50%ofexistingbuildingsretrofittedtozerocarbonreadylevelsNonewoilandgasfieldsapprovedfordevelopment;nonewcoalminesormineextensionsSummary for policy makers 21 ThereisnoneedforinvestmentinnewfossilfuelsupplyinournetzeropathwayBeyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and
115、gas fieldsapprovedfordevelopmentinourpathway,andnonewcoalminesormineextensionsarerequired.Theunwaveringpolicyfocusonclimatechangeinthenetzeropathwayresultsinasharpdeclineinfossilfueldemand,meaningthatthefocusforoilandgasproducersswitchesentirelytooutputandemissionsreductionsfromtheoperationofexistin
116、gassets.Unabatedcoaldemanddeclinesby90%tojust1%oftotalenergyusein2050.Gasdemanddeclinesby55%to1750billioncubicmetresandoildeclinesby75%to24millionbarrelsperday(mb/d),fromaround90mb/din2020.Cleanelectricitygeneration,networkinfrastructureandendusesectorsarekeyareasforincreasedinvestment.Enablinginfra
117、structureandtechnologiesarevitalfortransformingtheenergysystem.AnnualinvestmentintransmissionanddistributiongridsexpandsfromUSD260billiontodaytoUSD820billionin2030.ThenumberofpublicchargingpointsforEVsrisesfromaround1milliontodayto40millionin2030,requiringannualinvestmentofalmostUSD90billionin2030.A
118、nnualbatteryproductionforEVsleapsfrom160gigawatthours(GWh)todayto6600GWhin2030theequivalentofaddingalmost20gigafactories2eachyearforthenexttenyears.AndtherequiredrolloutofhydrogenandCCUSafter2030means laying the groundwork now: annual investment in CO2 pipelines and hydrogenenablinginfrastructureinc
119、reasesfromUSD1billiontodaytoaroundUSD40billionin2030.Drive a historic surge in clean energy investment Policiesneedtobedesignedtosendmarketsignalsthatunlocknewbusinessmodelsandmobiliseprivatespending,especiallyinemergingeconomies.Accelerateddeliveryofinternationalpublicfinancewillbecriticaltoenergyt
120、ransitions,especiallyindevelopingeconomies,butultimatelytheprivatesectorwillneedtofinancemost of the extra investment required. Mobilising the capital for largescaleinfrastructure calls for closer cooperation between developers, investors, publicfinancialinstitutionsandgovernments.Reducingrisksforin
121、vestorswillbeessentialtoensuresuccessfulandaffordablecleanenergytransitions.Manyemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,whichrelymainlyonpublicfundingfornewenergyprojectsandindustrialfacilities,willneedtoreformtheirpolicyandregulatoryframeworkstoattractmoreprivatefinance.Internationalflowsoflongtermcap
122、italtotheseeconomieswillbeneeded to support the development of both existing and emerging clean energytechnologies.2Batterygigafactorycapacityassumption=35gigawatthoursperyear.P R I O R I T Y A C T I O NIEA. All rights reserved.22 International Energy Agency | Special Report Clean energy investment
123、in the net zero pathway AnunparalleledcleanenergyinvestmentboomliftsglobaleconomicgrowthTotal annual energy investment surges to USD 5 trillion by 2030, adding an extra0.4percentagepointayeartoannualglobalGDPgrowth,basedonourjointanalysiswiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.Thisunparalleledincreasewithi
124、nvestmentincleanenergyandenergyinfrastructuremorethantriplingalreadyby2030bringssignificanteconomicbenefitsastheworldemergesfromtheCovid19crisis.Thejumpinprivateandgovernmentspendingcreatesmillionsofjobsincleanenergy,includingenergyefficiency,aswellasintheengineering,manufacturingandconstructionindu
125、stries.AllofthisputsglobalGDP4%higherin2030thanitwouldbebasedoncurrenttrends.Governmentshaveakeyroleinenablinginvestmentledgrowthandensuringthatthebenefitsaresharedbyall.Therearelargedifferencesinmacroeconomicimpactsbetweenregions. But government investment and public policies are essential to attra
126、ct largeamountsofprivatecapitalandtohelpoffsetthedeclinesinfossilfuelincomethatmanycountrieswillexperience.Themajorinnovationeffortsneededtobringnewcleanenergytechnologies to market could boost productivity and create entirely new industries,providingopportunitiestolocatetheminareasthatseejoblossesi
127、nincumbentindustries.Improvementsinairqualityprovidemajorhealthbenefits,with2millionfewerprematuredeathsgloballyfromairpollutionin2030thantodayinournetzeropathway.Achievinguniversalenergyaccessby2030wouldprovideamajorboosttowellbeingandproductivityindevelopingeconomies.20302050TrillionUSD
128、(2019)EnduseEnergyinfrastructureElectricitygenerationLowemissionsfuelsSummary for policy makers 23 Newenergysecurityconcernsemerge,andoldonesremainThecontractionofoilandnaturalgasproductionwillhavefarreachingimplicationsforallthecountriesandcompaniesthatproducethesefuels.Nonewoilandnaturalgasfieldsa
129、reneededinourpathway,andoilandnaturalgassuppliesbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedinasmallnumberoflowcostproducers.Foroil,theOPECshareofamuchreducedglobaloilsupplyincreasesfromaround37%inrecentyearsto52%in2050,alevelhigherthanatanypointinthehistoryofoilmarkets.Yetannualpercapitaincomefromoilandnaturalga
130、sinproducereconomiesfallsbyabout75%,fromUSD1800inrecentyearstoUSD450bythe2030s,whichcouldhaveknockonsocietaleffects.Structuralreformsandnewsourcesofrevenueareneeded,eventhoughtheseareunlikelytocompensatefullyforthedropinoilandgasincome.Whiletraditionalsupplyactivitiesdecline,theexpertiseoftheoilandn
131、aturalgasindustryfitswellwithtechnologiessuchashydrogen,CCUSandoffshorewindthatareneededtotackleemissionsinsectorswherereductionsarelikelytobemostchallenging.Theenergytransitionrequiressubstantialquantitiesofcriticalminerals,andtheirsupplyemergesasasignificantgrowtharea.Thetotalmarketsizeofcriticalm
132、ineralslikecopper,cobalt,manganeseandvariousrareearthmetalsgrowsalmostsevenfoldbetween2020and2030inthenetzeropathway.Revenuesfromthosemineralsarelargerthanrevenuesfromcoalwellbefore2030.Thiscreatessubstantialnewopportunitiesforminingcompanies.Italsocreatesnewenergysecurityconcerns,includingpricevola
133、tilityandadditionalcostsfortransitions,ifsupplycannotkeepupwithburgeoningdemand.The rapid electrification of all sectors makes electricity even more central to energysecurityaroundtheworldthanitistoday.Electricitysystemflexibilityneededtobalancewindandsolarwithevolvingdemandpatternsquadruplesby2050e
134、venasretirementsoffossilfuelcapacityreduceconventionalsourcesofflexibility.Thetransitioncallsformajorincreasesinallsourcesofflexibility:batteries,demandresponseandlowcarbonflexiblepowerplants,supportedbysmarterandmoredigitalelectricitynetworks.Theresilienceofelectricitysystemstocyberattacksandothere
135、mergingthreatsneedstobeenhanced.Address emerging energy security risks now Ensuring uninterrupted and reliable supplies of energy and critical energyrelatedcommoditiesataffordablepriceswillonlyriseinimportanceonthewaytonetzero.Thefocusofenergysecuritywillevolveasrelianceonrenewableelectricitygrowsan
136、dthe role of oil and gas diminishes. Potential vulnerabilities from the increasingimportance of electricity include the variability of supply and cybersecurity risks.Governmentsneedtocreatemarketsforinvestmentinbatteries,digitalsolutionsandelectricity grids that reward flexibility and enable adequat
137、e and reliablesupplies ofelectricity.Thegrowingdependenceoncriticalmineralsrequiredforkeycleanenergytechnologies calls for new international mechanisms to ensure both the timelyP R I O R I T Y A C T I O NIEA. All rights reserved.24 International Energy Agency | Special Report availabilityofsuppliesa
138、ndsustainableproduction.Atthesametime,traditionalenergysecurityconcernswillnotdisappear,asoilproductionwillbecomemoreconcentrated.Global energy security indicators in the net zero pathway Note:mb/d=millionbarrelsperday;Mt=milliontonnes.Internationalcooperationispivotalforachievingnetzeroemissionsby2
139、050Making netzero emissions a reality hinges on a singular, unwavering focus from allgovernmentsworkingtogetherwithoneanother,andwithbusinesses,investorsandcitizens.Allstakeholdersneedtoplaytheirpart.Thewiderangingmeasuresadoptedbygovernmentsatalllevelsinthenetzeropathwayhelptoframe,influenceandince
140、ntivisethe purchase by consumers and investment by businesses. This includes how energycompaniesinvestinnewwaysofproducingandsupplyingenergyservices,howbusinessesinvestinequipment,andhowconsumerscoolandheattheirhomes,powertheirdevicesandtravel.Underpinningallthesechangesarepolicydecisionsmadebygover
141、nments.Devisingcosteffectivenationalandregionalnetzeroroadmapsdemandscooperationamongallpartsofgovernmentthatbreaksdownsilosandintegratesenergyintoeverycountryspolicymakingonfinance,labour,taxation,transportandindustry.Energyorenvironmentministriesalonecannotcarryoutthepolicyactionsneededtoreachnetz
142、eroby2050.Changesinenergyconsumptionresultinasignificantdeclineinfossilfueltaxrevenues.Inmanycountriestoday,taxesondiesel,gasolineandotherfossilfuelconsumptionareanimportantsourceofpublicrevenues,providingasmuchas10%insomecases.Inthenetzeropathway,taxrevenuefromoilandgasretailsalesfallsbyabout40%bet
143、ween2020and2030.Managingthisdeclinewillrequirelongtermfiscalplanningandbudgetreforms.020205020%40%60%80%100%2020205020406080Oilsupply(mb/d)Shareofsolar PVandwindinelectricitygenerationCriticalmineralsdemand(Mt)52%OPECshare34%Summary for policy makers 25The net zero pathway reli
144、es on unprecedented international cooperation amonggovernments,especiallyoninnovationandinvestment.TheIEAstandsreadytosupportgovernmentsinpreparingnationalandregionalnetzeroroadmaps,toprovideguidanceandassistanceinimplementingthem,andtopromoteinternationalcooperationtoacceleratetheenergytransitionwo
145、rldwide.Take international co-operation to new heights Thisisnotsimplyamatterofallgovernmentsseekingtobringtheirnationalemissionstonetzeroitmeanstacklingglobalchallengesthroughcoordinatedactions.Governmentsmustworktogetherinaneffectiveandmutuallybeneficialmannertoimplement coherent measures that cro
146、ss borders. This includes carefully managingdomesticjobcreationandlocalcommercialadvantageswiththecollectiveglobalneedfor clean energy technology deployment. Accelerating innovation, developinginternationalstandardsandcoordinatingtoscaleupcleantechnologiesneedstobedoneinawaythatlinksnationalmarkets.
147、Cooperationmustrecognisedifferencesinthestagesofdevelopmentofdifferentcountriesandthevaryingsituationsofdifferentpartsofsociety.Formanyrichcountries,achievingnetzeroemissionswillbemoredifficultand costly without international cooperation. For many developing countries, thepathwaytonetzerowithoutinte
148、rnationalassistanceisnotclear.Technicalandfinancialsupportisneededtoensuredeploymentofkeytechnologiesandinfrastructure.Withoutgreaterinternationalcooperation,globalCO2emissionswillnotfalltonetzeroby2050.Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the net zero pathway and Low International Co-operation Ca
149、se Note:Gt=gigatonnes.02030205020702090GtCO2NZELowInternationalCooperation CaseP R I O R I T Y A C T I O NIEA. All rights reserved.Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Interactive iea.li/nzeroadmap203520202030IndustryOtherPowerTransportUnabated coal, natural gas and oil account for over 60% of tota
150、l electricity generationSolar PV and wind accounts for almost 10% of total electricity generationRetrofit rates below 1% globallyFossil fuels account for almost 80% of TES40 Mt CO2 captured5% of global car sales are electric33.9Total CO2 emissions (Gt)Buildings2.9Gt8.5Gt1.9Gt13.5Gt7.2GtFrom 2021:No
151、new oil and gas fields approved for development; no new coal mines or mine extensionsFrom 2021:No new unabated coal plants approved for developmentMost new clean technologies in heavy industry demonstrated at scale60% of global car sales are electric150 Mt low-carbon hydrogen; 850 GW electrolysersAl
152、l new buildings are zero-carbon-readyUniversalenergy access1 020 GW annualsolar and windadditionsPhase-out of unabated coal in advanced economiesIndustryOtherPowerTransportBuildings1.8Gt6.9Gt0.9Gt5.8Gt5.7Gt21.1Total CO2 emissions (Gt)All industrial electric motor sales are best in classVirtually all
153、 heavy industry capacity additions are innovative low-emissions routes No new internal combustion engine car sales50% of heavy truck sales are electric4 Gt CO2 capturedOverall net-zero emissionselectricity in advancedeconomiesMost appliances andcooling systems soldare best in classCapacity fitted wi
154、thCCUS or co-firinghydrogen-basedfuels reaches 6% oftotal generationIndustryOtherPowerTransportBuildings1.2Gt5.2Gt0.1Gt2.1Gt4.1Gt12.8Total CO2 emissions (Gt)20402050Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Interactive iea.li/nzeroadmap50% of existingbuildings retrofitted tozero-carbon-ready levelsAround 90% of ex
155、isting capacity in heavy industries reachesend of investment cycle50% of fuels used in aviation are low-emissionsOil demand is 50% of 2020 levelNet-zero emissionselectricity globallyPhase-out of all unabated coal and oil power plantsElectrolyser capacityreaches 2 400 GWIndustryOtherPowerTransportBui
156、ldings0.7Gt3.5Gt-0.5Gt-0.1Gt2.7Gt6.3Total CO2 emissions (Gt)33.9Total CO2 emissions (Gt)More than 90% of heavy industrial production is low-emissionsMore than 85% of buildings are zero-carbon-ready7.6 Gt CO2 capturedRenewables reachalmost 90% of totalelectricity generationAlmost 70% ofelectricity ge
157、nerationglobally from solar PVand wind520 Mt low-carbonhydrogenIndustryOtherPowerTransportBuildings0.1Gt0.5Gt-1Gt-0.4Gt0.7Gt0Total CO2 emissions (Gt)IEA. All rights reserved.Chapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 29 Chapter1Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector There
158、hasbeenarapidincreaseoverthelastyearinthenumberofgovernmentspledgingtoreducegreenhousegasemissionstonetzero.Netzeropledgestodatecoveraround70%ofglobalGDPandCO2emissions.However,fewerthanaquarterofannouncednetzeropledgesarefixedindomesticlegislationandfewareyetunderpinnedbyspecificmeasuresorpoliciest
159、odelivertheminfullandontime. TheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)takesaccountonlyofspecificpoliciesthatareinplaceorhavebeenannouncedbygovernments.AnnualenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsrisefrom34Gtin2020to36Gtin2030andremainaroundthisleveluntil2050.Ifemissionscontinueonthistrajectory,withsim
160、ilarchangesinnonenergyrelatedGHGemissions,thiswouldleadtoatemperatureriseofaround2.7Cby2100(witha50%probability).Renewablesprovidealmost55%ofglobalelectricitygenerationin2050(upfrom29%in2020),butcleanenergytransitionslaginothersectors.Globalcoalusefallsby15%between2020and2050;oilusein2050is15%higher
161、thanin2020;andnaturalgasuseisalmost50%higher. TheAnnouncedPledgesCase(APC)assumesthatallannouncednationalnetzeropledges are achieved in full and on time, whether or not they are currentlyunderpinnedbyspecificpolicies.GlobalenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsfallto30Gtin2030and22Gtin2050.Ex
162、tendingthistrajectory,withsimilaractiononnonenergyrelatedGHGemissions,wouldleadtoatemperaturerisein2100ofaround2.1C(witha50%probability).Globalelectricitygenerationnearlydoubles to exceed 50000TWh in 2050. The share of renewables in electricitygenerationrisestonearly70%in2050.Oildemanddoesnotreturnt
163、oits2019peakand falls about 10% from 2020 to 80mb/d in 2050. Coal use drops by 50% to2600Mtcein2050,whilenaturalgasuseexpandsby10%to4350bcmin2025andremainsaboutthatlevelto2050. Efficiency,electrificationandthereplacementofcoalbylowemissionssourcesinelectricity generation play a central role in achie
164、ving net zero goals in the APC,especiallyovertheperiodto2030.Therelativecontributionsofnuclear,hydrogen,bioenergyandCCUSvaryacrosscountries,dependingontheircircumstances. ThedivergenceintrendsbetweentheAPCandtheSTEPSshowsthedifferencethatcurrentnetzeropledgescouldmake,whileunderliningatthesametimeth
165、eneedforconcretepoliciesandshorttermplansthatareconsistentwithlongtermnetzeropledges.However,theAPCalsostarklyhighlightsthatexistingnetzeropledges,evenif delivered in full, fall well short of what is necessary to reach global netzeroemissionsby2050.S U M M A R YIEA. All rights reserved.30 Internatio
166、nal Energy Agency | Special Report 1.1 IntroductionNovember2021willseethemostimportantUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)ConferenceoftheParties(COP26)sincetheParisAgreementwassignedin2015.AsCOP26approaches,anincreasingnumberofcountrieshaveannouncedlongtermgoalsto achieve netzero greenhouse
167、gas (GHG) emissions over the coming decades. On31March2021,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)hostedaNetZeroSummittotakestockofthegrowinglistofcommitmentsfromcountriesandcompaniestoreachthegoalsoftheParisAgreement,andtofocusontheactionsnecessarytostartturningthosenetzerogoalsintoreality.Achievingthose
168、goalswillbedemanding.TheCovid19pandemicdeliveredamajorshocktotheworldeconomy,resultinginanunprecedented5.8%declineinCO2emissionsin2020.However,ourmonthlydatashowthatglobalenergyrelatedCO2emissionsstartedtoclimbagaininDecember2020,andweestimatethattheywillreboundtoaround33gigatonnesofcarbondioxide(Gt
169、CO2)in2021,only1.2%belowthelevelin2019(IEA,2021).Sustainableeconomicrecoverypackagesofferedauniqueopportunitytomake2019thedefinitivepeakinglobalemissions,buttheevidencesofarpointstoareboundinemissionsinparallelwithrenewedeconomicgrowth,atleastinthenearterm(IEA,2020a).Recent IEA analyses examined the
170、 technologies and policies needed for countries andregionstoachievenetzeroemissionsenergysystems.TheWorldEnergyOutlook2020examinedwhatwouldbeneededovertheperiodto2030toputtheworldonapathtowardsnetzero emissions by 2050 in the context of the pandemicrelated economic recovery(IEA,2020b).TheFasterInnov
171、ationCaseinEnergyTechnologyPerspectives2020exploredwhethernetzeroemissionscouldbeachievedgloballyby2050throughacceleratedenergytechnologydevelopmentanddeploymentalone:itshowedthat,relativetobaselinetrends,almosthalfoftheemissionssavingsneededin2050toreachnetzeroemissionsrelyontechnologiesthatarenoty
172、etcommerciallyavailable(IEA,2020c).Thisspecialreport,preparedattherequestoftheUKPresidentoftheCOP26,incorporatestheinsightsandlessonslearnedfrombothreportstocreateacomprehensiveanddetailedpathway, or roadmap, to achieve netzero energyrelated and industrial process CO2emissionsgloballyby2050.Itassess
173、esthecostsofachievingthisgoal,thelikelyimpactsonemploymentandtheeconomy,andthewiderimplicationsfortheworld.Italsohighlightsthekeymilestonesfortechnologies,infrastructure,investmentandpolicythatareneededalongtheroadto2050.Thisreportissetoutinfourchapters: Chapter1explorestheoutlookforglobalCO2emissio
174、nsandenergysupplyandusebasedonexistingpoliciesandpledges.ItsetsoutprojectionsofglobalenergyuseandemissionsbasedontheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS),whichincludesonlythefirmpoliciesthatareinplaceorhavebeenannouncedbycountries,includingNationallyChapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sect
175、or 31 1Determined Contributions. It also examines the Announced Pledges Case (APC), avariantoftheSTEPSthatassumesthatallofthenetzerotargetsannouncedbycountriesaroundtheworldtodatearemetinfull. Chapter2presentstheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZE),whichdescribeshowenergydemandandtheenergymixwillneed
176、toevolveiftheworldistoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050.Italsoassessesthecorrespondinginvestmentneedsandexploreskeyuncertaintiessurroundingtechnologyandconsumerbehaviour. Chapter3examinestheimplicationsoftheNZEforvarioussectors,coveringfossilfuelsupply, the supply of lowemissions fuels (such as hydrogen
177、, ammonia, biofuels,syntheticfuelsandbiomethane)andtheelectricity,transport,industryandbuildingssectors.IthighlightsthekeychangesrequiredtoachievenetzeroemissionsintheNZEandthemajormilestonesthatareneededalongtheway. Chapter4explorestheimplicationsoftheNZEfortheeconomy,theenergyindustry,citizensandg
178、overnments.1.2 Emissionsreductiontargetsandnetzeropledges1.2.1 NationallyDeterminedContributionsUnder the Paris Agreement, Parties1are required to submit Nationally DeterminedContributions(NDCs)totheUNFCCCandtoimplementpolicieswiththeaimofachievingtheirstatedobjectives.Theprocessisdynamic;itrequires
179、PartiestoupdatetheirNDCseveryfiveyearsinaprogressivemannertoreflectthehighestpossibleambition.ThefirstroundofNDCs, submitted by 191countries, covers more than 90% of global energyrelated andindustrial process CO2emissions.2The first NDCs included some targets that wereunconditional and others that w
180、ere conditional on international support for finance,technologyandothermeansofimplementation.Asof23April2021,80countrieshavesubmittedneworupdatedNDCstotheUNFCCC,coveringjustover40%ofglobalCO2emissions(Figure1.1).3ManyoftheupdatedNDCsincludemorestringenttargetsthanintheinitialroundofNDCs,ortargetsfor
181、alargernumberofsectorsorforabroadercoverageofGHGs.Inaddition,27countriesandtheEuropeanUnionhavecommunicatedlongtermlowGHGemissionsdevelopmentstrategiestotheUNFCCC,asrequestedbytheParisAgreement.Someofthesestrategiesincorporateanetzeropledge.1Partiesreferstothe197membersoftheUNFCCCwhichincludesallUni
182、tedNationsmemberstates,UnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyObserverStateofPalestine,UNnonmemberstatesNiueandtheCookIslandsandtheEuropeanUnion.2Unlessotherwisestated,CO2emissionsinthisreportrefertoenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissions.3SeveralcountrieshaveindicatedthattheyintendtosubmitneworupdatedND
183、Cslaterin2021orin2022.IEA. All rights reserved.32 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 1.1 Number of countries with NDCs, long-term strategies and net zero pledges, and their shares of 2020 global CO2 emissions IEA.Allrightsreserved.Around 40% of countries that have ratified the Paris
184、 Agreement have updated their NDCs, but net zero pledges cover around 70% of global CO2 emissions 1.2.2 NetzeroemissionspledgesTherehasbeenarapidincreaseinthenumberofgovernmentsmakingpledgestoreduceGHGemissionstonetzero(Figure1.2).IntheParisAgreement,countriesagreedto“achieveabalancebetweenanthropog
185、enicemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksofgreenhousegasesinthesecondhalfofthecentury”.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)SpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5ChighlightedtheimportanceofreachingnetzeroCO2emissionsgloballybymidcenturyorsoonertoavoidtheworstimpactsofclimatechange(IPCC,2018).Netz
186、eroemissionspledgeshavebeenannouncedbynationalgovernments,subnationaljurisdictions,coalitions4andalargenumberofcorporate entities(seeSpotlight). Asof23April2021, 44countries and the European Union have pledged to meet a netzeroemissionstarget:intotaltheyaccountforaround70%ofglobalCO2emissionsandGDP(
187、Figure1.3). Of these, ten countries have made meeting their net zero target a legalobligation,eightareproposingtomakeitalegalobligation,andtheremainderhavemadetheirpledgesinofficialpolicydocuments.4Examplesinclude:theUNledClimateAmbitionAllianceinwhichsignatoriessignaltheyareworkingtowardsachievingn
188、etzeroemissionsby2050;andtheCarbonNeutralityCoalitionlaunchedattheUNClimateSummitin2017,inwhichsignatoriescommittodeveloplongtermlowGHGemissionsstrategiesinlinewithlimitingtemperaturerisesto1.5C.25%50%75%100%50100150200FirstNDCNeworupdatedNDCNZEpledgesLongtermstrategyNZEtargetsinlawNumberofcountries
189、Shareofglobal2020COemissions(rightaxis)Chapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 33 1Figure 1.2 Number of national net zero pledges and share of global CO2 emissions covered IEA.Allrightsreserved.There has been a significant acceleration in net-zero emissions pledges announced by
190、governments, with an increasing number enshrined in law Notes:Inlaw=anetzeropledgehasbeenapprovedbyparliamentandislegallybinding.Proposed=anetzeropledgehasbeenproposedtoparliamenttobevotedintolaw.Inpolicydocument=anetzeropledgehasbeenproposedbutdoesnothavelegallybindingstatus.Figure 1.3 Coverage of
191、announced national net zero pledges IEA.Allrightsreserved.Countries accounting for around 70% of global CO2 emissions and GDP have set net zero pledges in law, or proposed legislation or in an official policy document Note:GDP=grossdomesticproductatpurchasingpowerparity.20%40%60%80%100%01
192、52001920202021Q1ShareofCOemissionsCountrieswithpledgesInlawProposedInpolicydocumentsGlobalCOcovered(rightaxis)20%40%60%80%100%GDPCOemissionsPopulationCountriesAdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesNotcoveredIEA. All rights reserved.34 International Energy Agency | Special R
193、eport IncontrasttosomeoftheshortertermcommitmentscontainedwithinNDCs,fewnetzeropledgesaresupportedbydetailedpoliciesandfirmroutestoimplementation.Netzeroemissionspledgesalsovaryconsiderablyintheirtimescaleandscope.Somekeydifferencesinclude: GHGcoverage.MostpledgescoverallGHGemissions,butsomeincludee
194、xemptionsordifferentrulesforcertaintypesofemissions.Forexample,NewZealandsnetzeropledgecoversallGHGsexceptbiogenicmethane,whichhasaseparatereductiontarget. Sectoralboundaries.Somepledgesexcludeemissionsfromspecificsectorsoractivities.For example, the Netherlands aims to achieve netzero GHG emissions
195、 only in itselectricitysector(aspartofanoverallaimtoreducetotalGHGemissionsby95%),andsomecountries,includingFrance,PortugalandSweden,excludeinternationalaviationandshipping. Useofcarbondioxideremoval(CDR).PledgestakevaryingapproachestoaccountforCDRwithinacountryssovereignterritory.CDRoptionsincluden
196、aturalCO2sinks,suchasforestsandsoils,aswellastechnologicalsolutions,suchasdirectaircaptureorbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage.Forexample,UruguayhasstatedthatnaturalCO2sinkswillbeusedtohelpitreachnetzeroemissions,whileSwitzerlandplanstouseCDRtechnologiestobalanceapartofitsresidualemissionsin2050.
197、Useofinternationalmitigationtransfers.SomepledgesallowGHGmitigationthatoccursoutsideacountrysborderstobecountedtowardsthenetzerotarget,suchasthroughthetransferofcarboncredits,whileothersdonot.Forexample,Norwayallowsthepotentialuseofinternationaltransfers,whileFranceexplicitlyrulesthemout.Somecountri
198、es,suchasSweden,allowsuchtransfersbutspecifyanupperlimittotheiruse. Timeframe.Themajorityofpledges,covering35%ofglobalCO2emissionsin2020,targetnetzeroemissionsby2050,butFinlandaimstoreachthatgoalby2035,AustriaandIcelandby2040andSwedenby2045.Amongothers,thePeoplesRepublicofChina(hereafterChina)andUkr
199、ainehavesetatargetdateafter2050.How are businesses responding to the need to reach net-zero emissions? Therehasbeenarapidriseinnetzeroemissionsannouncementsfromcompaniesinrecentyears:asofFebruary2021,around110companiesthatconsumelargeamountsof energy directly or produce energyconsuming goods have an
200、nounced netzeroemissionsgoalsortargets.Around6070%ofglobalproductionofheatingandcoolingequipment,roadvehicles,electricity and cement is from companies that have announced netzero emissionstargets (Figure1.4). Nearly 60% of gross revenue in the technology sector is alsogenerated by companies with net
201、zero emission targets. In other sectors, net zeroS P O T L I G H TChapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 35 1pledgescover3040%ofairandshippingoperations,15%oftransportlogisticsand10%ofconstruction.Allthesesharesarelikelytokeepgrowingasmorecompaniesmakepledges.Figure 1.4 Sectora
202、l activity of large energy-related companies with announced pledges to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 IEA.Allrightsreserved.Some sectors are more advanced in terms of the extent of net zero targets by companies active in the sector Notes:Scope1=directemissionsfromenergyandothersourcesownedorcontro
203、lled.Scope2=indirectemissionsfromtheproductionofelectricityandheat,andfuelspurchasedandused.Scope3=indirectemissionsfromsourcesnotownedordirectlycontrolledbutrelatedtotheiractivities(suchasemployeetravel,extraction,transportandproductionofpurchasedmaterialsandfuels,andenduseoffuels,productsandservic
204、es).PartialvaluechainincludesScope1and2emissionsandScope3emissionsinspecificgeographiclocationsorsectionsofacompanysvaluechain.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyreportsfromthelargest1025companieswithineachsector.Companypledgesmaynotbereadilycomparable.Mostcompaniesaccountforemissionsandsetnetzeropledg
205、esbasedontheGHGProtocol(WRI,WBCSD,2004),butthecoverageandtimeframeofthesepledgesvarieswidely.Somecoveronlytheirownemissions,forexamplebyshiftingtotheuseofzeroemissionselectricityinofficesandproduction facilities, and by eliminating the use of oil in transport or industrialoperations,e.g.FedEx,Arcelo
206、rMittalandMaersk.Othersalsocoverwideremissionsfromcertainpartsoftheirvalueschains,e.g.RenaultinEurope,orallindirectemissionsrelatedtotheiractivities,e.g.Daikin,Toyota,Shell,EniandHeidelberg.Around60%ofpledgesaimtoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050,butseveralcompanieshavesetanearlierdeadlineof2030or2040.A
207、round40%ofcompaniesthathaveannouncednetzeropledgeshaveyettosetouthowtheyaimtoachievethem.Forthosewithdetailedplans,themainoptionsincludedirectemissionsreductions,useofCO2removaltechnologies,suchasafforestation,bioenergy20%40%60%80%100%ConstructionTransportlogisticsOilandgasShippingoperationsAircraft
208、PassengerairlinesSteelTechnologyPowerRoadvehiclesCementHeatingandcoolingScope1+2+3PartialvaluechainScope1+2NotargetIEA. All rights reserved.36 International Energy Agency | Special Report with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), or direct air capture with CO2storage,andpurchasingemission
209、s(creditsgeneratedthroughemissionsreductionsthatoccurelsewhere).Theuseofoffsetscouldbeacosteffectivemechanismtoeliminateemissionsfrompartsofvaluechainswhereemissionsreductionsaremostchallenging,providedthatschemestogenerateemissionscreditsresultinpermanent,additionalandverifiedemissionsreductions.Ho
210、wever,thereislikelytobealimitedsupplyofemissionscreditsconsistentwithnetzeroemissionsgloballyandtheuseofsuchcreditscoulddivertinvestmentfromoptionsthatenabledirectemissionsreductions.1.3 OutlookforemissionsandenergyintheSTEPSTheIEAStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)illustratestheconsequencesofexistingands
211、tatedpoliciesfortheenergysector.Itdrawsonthelatestinformationregardingnationalenergyandclimateplansandthepoliciesthatunderpinthem.Ittakesaccountofallpoliciesthatarebackedbyrobustimplementinglegislationorregulatorymeasures,includingtheNDCsthatcountrieshaveputforwardundertheParisAgreementuptoSeptember
212、2020andtheenergycomponentsofannouncedeconomicstimulusandrecoverypackages.Sofar,fewnetzeroemissionspledgeshavebeenbackedupbydetailedpolicies,implementationplansorinterimtargets:mostnetzeropledgesthereforearenotincludedintheSTEPS.1.3.1 CO2emissionsGlobalCO2emissionsintheSTEPSbringaboutonlyamarginalove
213、rallimprovementinrecenttrends.Switchingtorenewablesleadstoanearlypeakinemissionsintheelectricitysector,butreductionsacrossallsectorsfallfarshortofwhatisrequiredfornetzeroemissionsin2050.AnnualCO2emissionsreboundquicklyfromthedipcausedbytheCovid19pandemicin2020:theyincreasefrom34Gtin2020to36Gtin2030a
214、ndthenremainaroundthisleveluntil2050(Figure1.5).Ifemissionstrendsweretocontinuealongthesametrajectoryafter2050, and with commensurate changes in other sources of GHG emissions, the globalaveragesurfacetemperaturerisewouldbearound2.7Cin2100(witha50%probability).Thereisstrongdivergencebetweentheoutloo
215、kforemissionsinadvancedeconomiesononehand and the emerging market and developing economies on the other. In advancedeconomies,despiteasmallreboundintheearly2020s,CO2emissionsdeclinebyaboutathirdbetween2020and2050,thankstotheimpactofpoliciesandtechnologicalprogressinreducingenergydemandandswitchingto
216、cleanerfuels.Inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,energydemandcontinuestogrowstronglybecauseofincreasedpopulation,brisk economic growth, urbanisation and the expansion of infrastructure: these effectsoutweighimprovementsinenergyefficiencyandthedeploymentofcleantechnologies,causingCO2emissionstogro
217、wbyalmost20%bythemid2040s,beforedecliningmarginallyto2050.Chapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 37 1Figure 1.5 Energy-related and industrial process CO2 emissions by region and sector in the STEPS IEA.Allrightsreserved.Global CO2 emissions rebound quickly after 2020 and then p
218、lateau, with declines in advanced economies offset by increases elsewhere Note:Other=agricultureandownuseintheenergysector.1.3.2 Totalenergysupply,totalfinalconsumptionandelectricitygenerationTheprojectedtrendsinCO2emissionsintheSTEPSresultfromchangesintheamountofenergyusedandthemixoffuelsandtechnol
219、ogies.Totalenergysupply(TES)5worldwiderisesbyjustover30%between2020and2050intheSTEPS(Figure1.6).Withoutaprojectedannualaveragereductionof2.2%inenergyintensity,i.e.energyuseperunitofGDP,TESin2050wouldbearound85%higher.Inadvancedeconomies,energyusefallsbyaround5%to2050,despitea75%increaseineconomicact
220、ivityovertheperiod.Inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,energyuseincreasesby50%to2050,reflectingatriplingofeconomicoutputbetween2020and2050.DespitetheincreaseinGDPandenergyuseinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,750millionpeoplestillhavenoaccesstoelectricityin2050,morethan95%oftheminsubSaharanAf
221、rica,and1.5billionpeoplecontinuetorelyonthetraditionaluseofbioenergyforcooking.Theglobalfuelmixchangessignificantlybetween2020and2050.Coaluse,whichpeakedin2014,fallsbyaround15%.Havingfallensharplyin2020duetothepandemic,oildemandreboundsquickly,returningtothe2019levelof98millionbarrelsperday(mb/d)by2
222、023andreachingaplateauofaround104mb/dshortlyafter2030.Naturalgasdemandincreasesfrom3900billioncubicmetres(bcm)in2020to4600bcmin2030and5700bcmin2050.Nuclearenergygrowsby15%between2020and2030,mainlyreflectingexpansionsinChina.5Totalprimaryenergysupply(ortotalprimaryenergydemand)hasbeenrenamedtotalener
223、gysupplyinaccordancewiththeInternationalRecommendationsforEnergyStatistics(IEA,2020d).020302050GtCORegionAdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesInternationalbunkers201020302050SectorElectricityIndustryTransportBuildingsOtherIEA. All rights reserved.38 International Energy Ag
224、ency | Special Report Figure 1.6 Total energy supply and CO2 emissions intensity in the STEPS IEA.Allrightsreserved.Coal use declines, oil plateaus and renewables and natural gas grow substantially to 2050 Note:EJ=exajoule;MJ=megajoule;TES=totalenergysupply.Totalfinalconsumptionincreasesinallsectors
225、intheSTEPS,ledbyelectricityandnaturalgas(Figure1.7).Allthegrowthisinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Thebiggestchange in energy use is in the electricity sector (Figure1.8). Global electricity demandincreasesby80%between2020and2050,arounddoubletheoverallrateofgrowthinfinalenergyconsumption.Moret
226、han85%ofthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemandcomesfromemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Coalcontinuestoplayanimportantroleinelectricitygenerationinthoseeconomiesto2050,despitestronggrowthinrenewables:inadvancedeconomies,theuseofcoalforelectricitygenerationdropssharply.Figure 1.7 Total final consumpt
227、ion by sector and fuel in the STEPS IEA.Allrightsreserved.Final energy consumption grows on average by 1% per year between 2020 and 2050, with electricity and natural gas meeting most of the increase 0000402050gCO/MJEJCoalOilNaturalgasRenewablesTraditionaluseofbiomas
228、sNuclearCOintensityofTES(rightaxis)20102050IndustryTransportBuildings20102050EJCoalOilNaturalgasHydrogenElectricityHeatModernBioenergyOtherrenewablesTraditionaluse ofbiomassChapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 39 1Figure 1.8 Electricity generation by fue
229、l and share of coal in the STEPS IEA.Allrightsreserved.Emerging market and developing economies drive most of the increase in global electricity demand, met mainly by renewables and gas, though coal remains important 1.3.3 EmissionsfromexistingassetsTheenergysectorcontainsalargenumberoflonglivedandc
230、apitalintensiveassets.Urbaninfrastructure, pipelines, refineries, coalfired power plants, heavy industrial facilities,buildingsandlargehydropowerplantscanhavetechnicalandeconomiclifetimesofwellover50years.Iftodaysenergyinfrastructurewastobeoperateduntiltheendofthetypicallifetimeinamannersimilartothe
231、past,weestimatethatthiswouldleadtocumulativeenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsbetween2020and2050ofjustunder650GtCO2.Thisisaround30%morethantheremainingtotalCO2budgetconsistentwithlimitingglobalwarmingto1.5Cwitha50%probability(seeChapter2).Theelectricitysectoraccountsformorethan50%ofthetot
232、alemissionsthatwouldcomefromexistingassets;40%oftotalemissionswouldcomefromcoalfiredpowerplantsalone.Industry is the next largest sector, with steel, cement, chemicals and other industryaccounting for around 30% total emissions from existing assets. The long lifetime ofproductionfacilitiesinthesesub
233、sectors(typically3040yearsforablastfurnaceorcementkiln)andtherelativelyyoungageoftheglobalcapitalstockexplaintheirlargecontribution.Transportaccountsforjustover10%ofemissionsfromexistingassetsandthebuildingssectoraccountsforjustunder5%.Thelifetimeofvehiclesandequipmentinthetransportandbuildingssecto
234、rsisgenerallymuchshorterthanisthecaseinelectricityandindustrypassengercars,forexample,aregenerallyassumedtohavealifetimeofaround17yearsbutassociatedinfrastructurenetworkssuchasroads,electricitynetworksandgasgridshaveverylonglifetimes.There are some large regional differences in emissions levels from
235、 existing assets(Figure1.9).Advancedeconomiestendtohavemucholdercapitalstocksthanemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,particularlyintheelectricitysector,andexistingassetswillreachtheendoftheirlifetimesearlier.Forexample,theaverageageofcoalfiredpower20%40%60%02020302040205020040
236、2050ThousandTWhCoalOilNaturalgasNuclearRenewablesShareofcoal(rightaxis)AdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesIEA. All rights reserved.40 International Energy Agency | Special Report plantsinChinais13yearsand16yearsintherestofAsia,comparedtoaround35yearsinEuropeand40yearsintheUnitedSta
237、tes(IEA,2020e).Figure 1.9 Emissions from existing infrastructure by sector and region IEA.Allrightsreserved.Emerging market and developing economies account for three-quarters of cumulative emissions from existing infrastructure through to 2050 1.4 AnnouncedPledgesCaseTheAnnouncedPledgesCase(APC)ass
238、umesthatallnationalnetzeroemissionspledgesarerealisedinfullandontime.ItthereforegoesbeyondthepolicycommitmentsincorporatedintheSTEPS.TheaimoftheAPCistoseehowfarfullimplementationofthenationalnetzeroemissionspledgeswouldtaketheworldtowardsreachingnetzeroemissions,andtoexaminethescaleofthetransformati
239、onoftheenergysectorthatsuchapathwouldrequire.The way these pledges are assumed to be implemented in the APC has importantimplications for the energy system. A net zero pledge for all GHG emissions does notnecessarilymeanthatCO2emissionsfromtheenergysectorneedtoreachnetzero.Forexample,acountrysnetzer
240、oplansmayenvisagesomeremainingenergyrelatedemissionsareoffsetbytheabsorptionofemissionsfromforestryorlanduse,orbynegativeemissionsarisingfromtheuseofbioenergyordirectcaptureofCO2fromtheair(DAC)withCCUS.6Itisnotpossibletoknowexactlyhownetzeropledgeswillbeimplemented,butthedesignoftheAPC,particularlyw
241、ithrespecttothedetailsoftheenergysystempathway,hasbeeninformedbythepathwaysthatanumberofnationalbodieshavedevelopedtosupportnetzeropledges(Box1.1).PoliciesincountriesthathavenotyetmadeanetzeropledgeareassumedtobethesameasintheSTEPS.Nonpolicyassumptions,includingpopulationandeconomicgrowth,arethesame
242、asintheSTEPS.6For example, in recent economywide net zero mitigation pathways for the European Union, around140210milliontonnesCO2ofemissionsfromtheenergysectorremainin2050,whichareoffsetbyCDRfrommanagedlandusesinks,andbioenergyandDACwithCCUS(EuropeanCommission,2018).50203020402050GtCOEle
243、ctricityIndustryTransportBuildingsOtherAdvancedeconomies2020203020402050EmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesChapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 41 1Box 1.1 Consultations with national bodies on achieving national net-zero emissions goals Tohelpinformitsworkonnetzeropathways,
244、theIEAengagedinextensiveconsultationswithexpertsinacademiaandnationalbodiesthathavedevelopedpathwaystosupportnetzeropledgesmadebygovernments.ThisincludesgroupsthathavedevelopednetzeroemissionspathwaysforseveralcountriesincludingChina,EuropeanUnion,Japan,UnitedKingdomandUnitedStates,aswellastheIPCC.T
245、hesepathwayswerenotuseddirectlyasinputfortheAPC,butthediscussionsinformedourmodellingofnationalpreferencesandconstraintswithineachjurisdictionandtobenchmarktheoveralllevelofenergyrelatedCO2emissionsreductionsthatarecommensuratewitheconomywidenetzerogoals.1.4.1 CO2emissionsIntheAPC,thereisasmallrebou
246、ndinemissionsto2023,althoughthisismuchsmallerthantheincreasethatimmediatelyfollowedthefinancialcrisisin200809.Emissionsneverreachthepreviouspeakof36GtCO2.GlobalCO2emissionsfallaround10%to30Gtin2030andto22Gtin2050.Thisisaround35%belowthelevelin2020and14GtCO2lowerthanintheSTEPS(Figure1.10).Ifemissions
247、continuethistrendafter2050,andwithasimilarlevelofchangesinnonenergyrelatedGHGemissions,theglobalaveragesurfacetemperaturerisein2100wouldbearound2.1C(witha50%probability).Figure 1.10 Global energy-related and industrial process CO2 emissions by scenario and reductions by region, 2010-2050 IEA.Allrigh
248、tsreserved.Achieving existing net zero pledges would reduce emissions globally to 22 Gt CO2 in 2050, a major reduction compared with current policies but still far from net-zero emissions 02020203020402050GtCOUnitedStatesEuropeanUnionJapanKoreaChinaOtherSTEPSAPCIEA. All rights reserved.42
249、 International Energy Agency | Special Report ThenetzeropledgesthathavebeenmadetodatethereforemakeamajordifferencetothecurrenttrajectoryforCO2emissions.Equally,however,existingnetzeropledgesfallwellshortofwhatisnecessarytoreachnetzeroemissionsgloballyby2050.Thishighlightstheimportanceofconcretepolic
250、iesandplanstodeliverinfulllongtermnetzeropledges.Italsounderlinesthevalueofothercountriesmaking(anddeliveringon)netzeropledges:themorecountriesthatdoso,andthemoreambitiousthosepledgesare,themorethegapwillnarrowwithwhatisneededtoreachnetzeroemissionsby2050.ThelargestdropinCO2emissionsisintheAPCisinth
251、eelectricitysectorwithglobalemissionsfalling by nearly 60% between 2020 and 2050. This occurs despite a neardoubling ofelectricitydemandasenergyendusesareincreasinglyelectrified,notablyintransportandbuildings(Figure1.11).Thiscompareswithafallinemissionsoflessthan15%intheSTEPS.Figure 1.11 Global CO2
252、emissions by sector in the STEPS and APC IEA.Allrightsreserved.Announced net zero pledges would cut emissions in 2050 by 60% in the electricity sector, 40% in buildings, 25% in industry and just over 10% in transport ThetransportandindustrysectorsseealessmarkedfallinCO2emissionsto2050intheAPC,within
253、creasesinenergydemandinregionswithoutnetzeropledgespartiallyoffsettingemissionsreductioneffortsinotherregions.Emissionsfromthebuildingssectordeclinebyaround40%between2020and2050,comparedwitharound5%intheSTEPS:fossilfueluseinbuildingsismostlytoprovideheating,andcountriesthathavemadepledgesaccountfora
254、relativelyhighproportionofglobalheatingdemand.Eveninregionswithnetzeropledges,therearesomeresidualemissionsin2050,mainlyinindustry and transport. This reflects the scarcity of commercially available options toeliminateallemissionsfromheavydutytrucks,aviation,shippingandheavyindustry.0 201
255、0 20202030 2040 20502030 2040 2050GtCOOtherBuildingsTransportIndustryElectricitySTEPSAPCChapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 43 11.4.2 TotalenergysupplyGlobaltotalenergysupplyincreasesbymorethan15%between2020and2050intheAPC,comparedwithathirdintheSTEPS(Figure1.12).Energyinten
256、sityfallsonaveragebyaround2.6%peryearto2050comparedwith2.2%intheSTEPS.Thereisasubstantialincreaseinenergy demand in emerging market and developing economies, where economic andpopulationgrowthisfastestandwheretherearefewernetzeropledges,whichoutweighsthereductionsinenergydemandinthecountrieswithnetz
257、eropledges.Figure 1.12 Total energy supply by source in STEPS and APC IEA.Allrightsreserved.Announced net zero pledges lift renewables in the APC from 12% of total energy supply in 2020 to 35% in 2050, mainly at the expense of coal and oil TheglobalincreaseinenergysupplyintheAPCisledbyrenewables,whi
258、chincreasetheirshareintheenergymixfrom12%in2020to35%by2050(comparedwith25%in2050intheSTEPS).Solarphotovoltaics(PV)andwindintheelectricitysectortogethercontributeabout50%ofthegrowthinrenewablessupply,andbioenergycontributesaround30%.Bioenergyusedoublesinindustry,triplesinelectricitygenerationandgrows
259、byafactoroffourintransport:itplaysanimportantroleinreducingemissionsfromheatsupplyandremovingCO2fromtheatmospherewhenitiscombinedwithCCUS.Nuclearmaintainsitsshareoftheenergymix,itsoutputrisingbyaquarterto2030(comparedwitha15%increaseintheSTEPS),drivenbylifetimeextensionsatexistingplantsandnewreactor
260、sinsomecountries.GlobalcoalusefallssignificantlymorerapidlyintheAPCthanintheSTEPS.Itdropsfrom5250milliontonnesofcoalequivalent(Mtce)in2020to4000Mtcein2030and2600Mtcein2050(comparedwith4300MtceintheSTEPSin2050).Mostofthisdeclineisduetoreducedcoalfiredelectricitygenerationincountrieswithnetzeropledges
261、asplantsarerepurposed,retrofittedorretired.Inadvancedeconomies,unabatedcoalfiredpowerplants2004006008002000 2010 20202030 2040 20502030 2040 2050EJRenewablesNuclearNaturalgasOilCoalSTEPSAPCIEA. All rights reserved.44 International Energy Agency | Special Report aregenerallyphasedoutoverthenext1015ye
262、ars.Chinascoalconsumptionforelectricitydeclinesby85%between2020and2050onitspathtowardscarbonneutralityin2060.Thesedeclinesmorethanoffsetcontinuedgrowthforcoalincountrieswithoutnetzeropledges.Globally,coaluseinindustryfallsby25%between2020and2050,comparedwitha5%declineintheSTEPS.Oildemandrecoversslig
263、htlyintheearly2020sbutneveragainreachesitshistoricpeakin2019.Itdeclinesto90mb/dintheearly2030sandto80mb/din2050,around25mb/dlowerthanintheSTEPS,thankstoastrongpushtoelectrifytransportandshiftstobiofuelsandhydrogen,especiallyinregionswithpledges.Naturalgasdemandincreasesfromabout3900bcmin2020toaround
264、4350bcmin2025,butisthenbroadlyflatto2050(itcontinuestogrowtoaround5700bcmintheSTEPS).1.4.3 TotalfinalconsumptionGlobal energy use continues to grow in all major enduse sectors in the APC, albeitsubstantiallymoreslowlythanintheSTEPS(Figure1.13).Totalfinalconsumption(TFC)increasesbyaround20%in202050,c
265、omparedwitha35%increasegloballyintheSTEPS.MeasurestoimproveenergyefficiencyplayamajorroleintheAPCinreducingdemandgrowthincountrieswithnetzeropledges.Withoutthoseefficiencygains,electricitydemandgrowthwouldmakeitmuchharderforrenewablestodisplacefossilfuelsinelectricitygeneration.Thebiggestreductionin
266、energydemandrelativetotheSTEPSisintransport,thankstoanacceleratedshifttoelectricvehicles(EVs),whicharearoundthreetimesasenergyefficientasconventionalinternalcombustionenginevehicles.Figure 1.13 Total final consumption in the APC IEA.Allrightsreserved.Announced net zero pledges lead to a shift away f
267、rom fossil fuels globally to electricity, renewables and hydrogen. Electricitys share rises from 20% to 30% in 2050 25%50%75%100%2020203020402050TFCshares502020302040205020202030204020502020203020402050EJCoalOilNaturalgasHydrogenHeatElectricityRenewablesTraditionaluseofbiomassIndustryBuil
268、dingsTransportChapter 1 | Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector 45 1ThefuelmixinfinalenergyuseshiftssubstantiallyintheAPC.By2050,electricityisthelargestsinglefuelusedinallsectorsexcepttransport,whereoilremainsdominant.Thepersistenceofoilintransportstemspartlyfromtheextentofitscontinueduse
269、incountrieswithoutnetzeropledges,andpartlyfromthedifficultyofelectrifyingsubstantialpartsofthetransportsector,notablytruckingandaviation.Electricitydoesmakeinroadsintotransport,however,andrapidgrowthintheuptakeofEVsputsoiluseintodeclineafter2030,withEVsaccountingforaround35%ofglobalpassengercarsales
270、by2030andnearly50%in2050intheAPC(versusaround25%intheSTEPSin2050).ElectrificationinthebuildingssectorisalsomuchfasterintheAPCthanintheSTEPS.Thedirectuseofrenewablesexpandsinallendusesectorsgloballythroughto2050.Modernbioenergyaccountsforthebulkofthisgrowth,predominantlythroughtheblendingofbiomethane
271、intonaturalgasnetworksandliquidbiofuelsintransport.Thisoccursmainlyinregionswithnetzeropledges.HydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsplayalargerroleintheAPCthanintheSTEPS,reachingalmost15exajoules(EJ)in2050,thoughtheystillaccountforonly3%oftotalfinalconsumptionworldwidein2050.Transportaccountsformorethantwot
272、hirdsofallhydrogenconsumptionin2050.Inparallel,onsitehydrogenproductionintheindustryandrefiningsectorsgraduallyshiftstowardslowcarbontechnologies.1.4.4 ElectricitygenerationGlobalelectricitygenerationnearlydoublesduringthenextthreedecadesintheAPC,risingfrom about 26800terawatthours (TWh) in 2020 to
273、over 50000TWh in 2050, some4000TWhhigherthanintheSTEPS.Lowemissionsenergysourcesprovidealltheincrease.Theshareofrenewablesinelectricitygenerationrisesfrom29%in2020tonearly70%in2050,comparedwithabout55%intheSTEPS,assolarPVandwindraceaheadofallothersourcesofgeneration(Figure1.14).By2050,solarPVandwind
274、togetheraccountforalmosthalfofelectricitysupply.Hydropoweralsocontinuestoexpand,emergingasthethirdlargestenergy source in the electricity mix by 2050. Nuclear power increases steadily too,maintainingitsglobalmarketshareofabout10%,ledbyincreasesinChina.Naturalgasuseinelectricityincreasesslightlytothe
275、mid2020sbeforestartingtofallback,whilecoalsshareofelectricitygenerationfallsfromaround35%in2020tobelow10%in2050.Atthatpoint,20%oftheremainingcoalfiredoutputcomesfromplantsequippedwithCCUS.Hydrogenandammoniastarttoemergeasfuelinputstoelectricitygenerationbyaround2030,usedlargelyincombinationwithnatur
276、algasingasturbinesandwithcoalincoalfiredpower plants. This extends the life of existing assets, contributes to electricity systemadequacyandreducestheoverallcostsoftransformingtheelectricitysectorsinmanycountries.Totalbatterycapacityalsorisessubstantially,reaching1600gigawatts(GW)in2050,70%morethani
277、ntheSTEPS.IEA. All rights reserved.46 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 1.14 Global electricity generation by source in the APC IEA.Allrightsreserved.Renewables reach new heights in the APC, rising from just under 30% of electricity supply in 2020 to nearly 70% in 2050, while coal-
278、fired generation steadily declines Note:Otherrenewables=geothermal,solarthermalandmarine.2468020203020402050ThousandTWh20%40%60%80%100%2020 2030 2050OilUnabatednaturalgasUnabatedcoalFossilfuelswithCCUSHydrogenbasedNuclearOtherrenewablesHydropowerWindSolarPVChapter 2 | A global pathway to
279、net-zero CO emissions in 2050 47 Chapter2A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 TheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZE)showswhatisneededfortheglobalenergysectortoachievenetzeroCO2emissionsby2050.AlongsidecorrespondingreductionsinGHGemissionsfromoutsidetheenergysector,thisisconsistentwithli
280、mitingtheglobaltemperatureriseto1.5Cwithoutatemperatureovershoot(witha 50% probability). Achieving this would require all governments to increaseambitionsfromcurrentNationallyDeterminedContributionsandnetzeropledges. IntheNZE,globalenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsfallbynearly40%between2
281、020and2030andtonetzeroin2050.Universalaccesstosustainableenergyisachievedby2030.Thereisa75%reductioninmethaneemissionsfromfossilfueluseby2030.Thesechangestakeplacewhiletheglobaleconomymorethandoublesthroughto2050andtheglobalpopulationincreasesby2billion. Totalenergysupplyfallsby7%between2020and2030i
282、ntheNZEandremainsataroundthislevelto2050.SolarPVandwindbecometheleadingsourcesofelectricitygloballybefore2030andtogethertheyprovidenearly70%ofglobalgenerationin2050.Thetraditionaluseofbioenergyisphasedoutby2030. Coaldemanddeclinesby90%tolessthan600Mtcein2050,oildeclinesby75%to24mb/d,andnaturalgasdec
283、linesby55%to1750bcm.Thefossilfuelsthatremainin 2050 are used in the production of nonenergy goods where the carbon isembodiedintheproduct(likeplastics),inplantswithcarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS),andinsectorswherelowemissionstechnologyoptionsarescarce. Energyefficiency,windandsolarprovidea
284、roundhalfofemissionssavingsto2030intheNZE.Theycontinuetodeliveremissionsreductionsbeyond2030,buttheperiodto2050seesincreasingelectrification,hydrogenuseandCCUSdeployment,forwhichnotalltechnologiesareavailableonthemarkettoday,andtheseprovidemorethanhalfofemissionssavingsbetween2030and2050.In2050,ther
285、eis1.9GtofCO2removal in the NZE and 520million tonnes of lowcarbon hydrogen demand.Behaviouralchangesbycitizensandbusinessesavoid1.7GtCO2emissionsin2030,curbenergydemandgrowth,andfacilitatecleanenergytransitions. Annualenergysectorinvestment,whichaveragedUSD2.3trilliongloballyinrecentyears,jumpstoUS
286、D5trillionby2030intheNZE.AsashareofglobalGDP,averageannualenergyinvestmentto2050intheNZEisaround1%higherthaninrecentyears. TheNZEtapsintoallopportunitiestodecarbonisetheenergysector,acrossallfuelsandalltechnologies.Butthepathto2050hasmanyuncertainties.Ifbehaviouralchangesweretobemorelimitedthanenvis
287、agedintheNZE,orsustainablebioenergylessavailable, thentheenergytransitionwouldbe more expensive. AfailuretodevelopCCUSforfossilfuelscoulddelayorpreventthedevelopmentofCCUSforprocessemissionsfromcementproductionandcarbonremovaltechnologies,makingitmuchhardertoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050.S U M M A R
288、 YIEA. All rights reserved.48 International Energy Agency | Special Report 2.1 IntroductionAchievingaglobalenergytransitionthatiscompatiblewiththeworldsclimategoalsisunquestionably a formidable task. As highlighted in Chapter 1, current pledges bygovernmentstoreduceemissionstonetzerocollectivelycove
289、raround70%oftodaysglobaleconomicactivityandglobalCO2emissions.TheAnnouncedPledgesCaseshowsthat,ifallthosepledgesweremetinfull,itwouldnarrowthegapbetweenwhereweareheadingandwhereweneedtobetoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050worldwide.Butitalsoshowsthatthegapwouldremainlarge.Meetingallexistingnetzeropledge
290、sinfullwouldstillleave22gigatonnes(Gt)ofenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsgloballyin2050,consistentwithatemperaturerisein2100ofaround2.1C(witha50%probability).Inthischapter,weexaminetheenergysectortransformationwhichisembodiedinourNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.First,itprovidesanoverviewo
291、fthekeyassumptionsandmarketdynamicsunderlyingtheprojections,includingprojectedfossilfuelandCO2prices.ItdiscussestrendsinglobalCO2emissions,energyuseandinvestment,includingthekeyrolesplayedbyefficiencymeasures,behaviouralchange,electrification,renewables,hydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels,bioenergy,andcar
292、boncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS).Further,itdiscussessomeofthekeyuncertaintiessurroundingtheglobalpathwaytowardsnetzeroemissionsrelatedtobehaviouralchange,theavailabilityofsustainablebioenergy,andthedeploymentofCCUSforfossilfuels.Thetransformationofspecificenergysectorsisassessedanddiscussedind
293、etailinChapter3.2.2 ScenariodesignTheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZE)isdesignedtoshowwhatisneededacrossthemainsectorsbyvariousactors,andbywhen,fortheworldtoachievenetzeroenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsby2050.1Italsoaimstominimisemethaneemissionsfromtheenergysector.Inrecentyears,thee
294、nergysectorwasresponsibleforaroundthreequartersofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.AchievingnetzeroenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsby2050intheNZEdoesnotrelyonactioninareasotherthantheenergysector,butlimitingclimatechangedoesrequiresuchaction.Wethereforeadditionallyexaminethereductionsin
295、CO2emissionsfromlandusethatwouldbecommensurate with the transformation of the energy sector in the NZE, working incooperationwiththeInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA).InparallelwithactiononreducingallothersourcesofGHGemissions,achievingnetzeroCO2emissionsfromtheenergysectorby2050
296、isconsistentwitharounda50%chanceoflimitingthelongterm average global temperature rise to 1.5C without a temperature overshoot(IPCC,2018).1Unlessotherwisestated,carbondioxide(CO2)emissionsinthischapterrefertoenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissions.NetzeroCO2emissionsreferstozeroCO2emissionstoth
297、eatmosphere,orwithanyresidualCO2emissionsoffsetbyCO2removalfromdirectaircaptureorbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 49 2TheNZEaimstoensurethatenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsto2030areinlinewithreductionsin1.5Cscenarioswithn
298、oorloworlimitedtemperatureovershootassessedintheIPCCinitsSpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5C.2Inaddition,theNZEincorporatesconcreteactionontheenergyrelatedUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoalsrelatedtoachievinguniversalenergyaccessby2030anddeliveringamajorreductioninairpollution.Theprojectionsinth
299、eNZEweregeneratedbyahybridmodelthatcombinescomponents of the IEAs World Energy Model (WEM), which is used to produce theprojectionsintheannualWorldEnergyOutlook,andtheEnergyTechnologyPerspectives(ETP)model.Box 2.1 International Energy Agency modelling approach for the NZE Anew,hybridmodellingapproac
300、hwasadoptedtodeveloptheNZEandcombinestherelativestrengthsoftheWEMandtheETPmodel.TheWEMisalargescalesimulationmodeldesignedtoreplicatehowcompetitiveenergymarketsfunctionandtoexaminetheimplicationsofpoliciesonadetailedsectorbysectorandregionbyregionbasis.TheETP model is a largescale partialoptimisatio
301、n model with detailed technologydescriptionsofmorethan800individualtechnologiesacrosstheenergyconversion,industry,transportandbuildingssectors.Thisisthefirsttimethismodellingapproachhasbeenimplemented.Thecombinationofthetwomodelsallowsforauniquesetofinsightsonenergymarkets,investment,technologies,an
302、dthelevelanddetailofpoliciesthatwouldbeneededtobringabouttheenergysectortransformationintheNZE.ResultsfromtheWEMandETPmodelhavebeencoupledwiththeGreenhouseGasAirPollutionInteractionsandSynergies(GAINS)modeldevelopedbyIIASA(Amannetal.,2011).TheGAINSmodelisusedtoevaluateairpollutantemissionsandresulta
303、nthealthimpactslinkedtoairpollution.Forthefirsttime,IEAmodelresultshavealsobeencoupledwiththeIIASAsGlobalBiosphereManagementModel(GLOBIOM)toprovidedataonlanduseandnetemissionsimpactsofbioenergydemand.TheimpactsofchangesininvestmentandspendingonglobalGDPintheNZEhavebeenestimated by the International
304、Monetary Fund (IMF) using the Global IntegratedMonetaryandFiscal(GIMF)model.GIMFisamulticountrydynamicstochasticgeneralequilibriummodelusedbytheIMFforpolicyandriskanalysis(Laxtonetal.,2010;Andersonetal.,2013).IthasbeenusedtoproducetheIMFsWorldEconomicOutlookscenarioanalysessince2008.Therearemanyposs
305、iblepathstoachievenetzeroCO2emissionsgloballyby2050andmanyuncertaintiesthatcouldaffectanyofthem;theNZEisthereforeapath,notthepathtonetzeroemissions.Muchdepends,forexample,onthepaceofinnovationinnewandemerging2TheIPCCclassifiesscenariosas“noorlimitedtemperatureovershoot”,iftemperaturesexceed1.5Cbyles
306、sthan0.1Cbutreturntolessthan1.5Cin2100,andas“higherovershoot”,iftemperaturesexceed1.5Cby0.10.4Cbutreturntolessthan1.5Cin2100.IEA. All rights reserved.50 International Energy Agency | Special Report technologies,theextentto whichcitizens areableorwillingtochangebehaviour,theavailability of sustainabl
307、e bioenergy and the extent and effectiveness of internationalcollaboration.WeinvestigatesomeofthekeyalternativesanduncertaintieshereandinChapter3.TheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenarioisbuiltonthefollowingprinciples. Theuptakeofalltheavailabletechnologiesandemissionsreductionoptionsisdictatedbycosts,tech
308、nologymaturity,policypreferences,andmarketandcountryconditions. Allcountriescooperatetowardsachievingnetzeroemissionsworldwide.Thisinvolvesallcountriesparticipatingineffortstomeetthenetzerogoal,workingtogetherinaneffectiveandmutuallybeneficialway,andrecognisingthedifferentstagesofeconomicdevelopment
309、ofcountriesandregions,andtheimportanceofensuringajusttransition. Anorderlytransitionacrosstheenergysector.Thisincludesensuringthesecurityoffuelandelectricitysuppliesatalltimes,minimisingstrandedassetswherepossibleandaimingtoavoidvolatilityinenergymarkets.2.2.1 PopulationandGDPTheenergysectortransfor
310、mationintheNZEoccursagainstthebackdropoflargeincreasesintheworldspopulationandeconomy(Figure2.1).In2020,therewerearound7.8billionpeopleintheworld;thisisprojectedtoincreasebyaround750millionby2030andbynearly2billionpeopleby2050inlinewiththemedianvariantoftheUnitedNationsprojections(UNDESA,2019).Nearl
311、yallofthepopulationincreaseisinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies:thepopulationofAfricaaloneincreasesbymorethan1.1billionbetween2020and2050.Figure 2.1 World population by region and global GDP in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.By 2050, the worlds population expands to 9.7 billion people and the glo
312、bal economy is more than twice as large as in 2020 Notes:GDP=grossdomesticproductinpurchasingpowerparity;C&SAmerica=CentralandSouthAmerica.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonUNDESA(2019);OxfordEconomics(2020);IMF(2020a,2020b).05002468020203020402050TrillionUSD(2019)BillionpeopleRestofwo
313、rldEurasiaMiddleEastNorthAmericaC&SAmericaSoutheastAsiaEuropeAfricaIndiaChinaGlobalGDP(rightaxis)Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 51 2The worlds economy is assumed to recover rapidly from the impact of the Covid19pandemic.Itssizereturnstoprecrisislevelsin2021.From2022,th
314、eGDPgrowthtrendisclosetotheprepandemicrateofaround3%peryearonaverage,inlinewithassessmentsfromtheIMF.Theresponsetothepandemicleadstoalargeincreaseingovernmentdebt,butresumedgrowth,alongwithlowinterestratesinmanycountries,makethismanageableinthelongterm.By2030,theworldseconomyisaround45%largerthanin2
315、020,andby2050itismorethantwiceaslarge.2.2.2 EnergyandCO2pricesProjectionsoffutureenergypricesareinevitablysubjecttoahighdegreeofuncertainty.InIEAscenarios,theyaredesignedtomaintainanequilibriumbetweensupplyanddemand.TherapiddropinoilandnaturalgasdemandintheNZEmeansthatnofossilfuelexplorationisrequir
316、edandnonewoilandnaturalgasfieldsarerequiredbeyondthosethathavealreadybeenapprovedfordevelopment.Nonewcoalminesormineextensionsarerequiredeither.Pricesareincreasinglysetbytheoperatingcostsofthemarginalprojectrequiredtomeetdemand,andthisresultsinsignificantlylowerfossilfuelpricesthaninrecentyears.Theo
317、ilprice drops to around USD35/barrel by 2030 and then drifts down slowly towardsUSD25/barrelin2050.Table 2.1 Fossil fuel prices in the NZE Realterms(USD2019)200402050IEAcrudeoil(USD/barrel)9137352824Naturalgas(USD/MBtu)UnitedStates5.12.11.92.02.0EuropeanUnion8.72.03.83.83.5China7.85.75.24
318、.84.6Japan12.95.74.44.24.1Steamcoal(USD/tonne)UnitedStates6045242422EuropeanUnionJapanCoastalChinaNotes:MBtu=millionBritishthermalunits.TheIEAcrudeoilpricesareaweightedaverageimportpriceamongIEAmembercountries.Naturalgaspricesareweightedaveragesexpressedonagrosscalor
319、ificvaluebasis.USnaturalgaspricesreflectthewholesalepriceprevailingonthedomesticmarket.TheEuropeanUnionandChinagaspricesreflectabalanceofpipelineandliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)imports,whileJapangaspricessolelyreflectLNGimports.LNGpricesusedarethoseatthecustomsborder,priortoregasification.Steamcoalprices
320、areweightedaveragesadjustedto6000kilocaloriesperkilogramme.USsteamcoalpricesreflectminemouthpriceplustransportandhandlingcost.CoastalChinasteamcoalpricereflectsabalanceofimportsanddomesticsales,whiletheEuropeanUnionandJapanesesteamcoalpricesaresolelyforimports.IEA. All rights reserved.52 Internation
321、al Energy Agency | Special Report InlinewiththeprincipleoforderlytransitionsgoverningtheNZE,thetrajectoryforoilmarketsandpricesavoidsexcessivevolatility.Whathappensdependstoalargedegreeonthestrategiesadoptedbyresourcerichgovernmentsandtheirnationaloilcompanies.IntheNZEitisassumedthat,despitehavinglo
322、wercostresourcesattheirdisposal,theyrestrictinvestmentinnewfields.Thislimitstheneedfortheshuttinginandclosureofhighercostproduction.ThemarketshareofmajorresourcerichcountriesneverthelessstillrisesintheNZEduetothelargesizeandslowdeclineratesoftheirexistingfields.Producereconomiescouldpursuealternativ
323、eapproaches.Facedwithrapidlyfallingoilandgasdemand,theycould,forexample,opttoincreaseproductionsoastocaptureanevenlargershareofthemarket.Inthisevent,thecombinationoffallingdemandandincreasedavailabilityoflowcostoilwouldundoubtedlyleadtoevenlowerandprobablymuchmorevolatileprices.Inpractice,theoptions
324、opentoparticularproducercountrieswoulddependontheirresiliencetoloweroilpricesandontheextenttowhichexportmarketshavedevelopedforlowemissionsfuelsthatcouldbeproducedfromtheirnaturalresources.Anticipating and mitigating feedbacks from the supply side is a central element of thediscussionaboutorderlyene
325、rgytransitions.Adropinpricesusuallyresultsinsomereboundindemand,andpoliciesandregulationswouldbeessentialtoavoidthisleadingtoanyincrease in the unabated use of fossil fuels, which would undermine wider emissionsreductionefforts.Astheenergysectortransforms,morefuelsaretradedglobally,suchashydrogenbas
326、edfuelsandbiofuels.Thepricesofthesecommoditiesareassumedtobesetbythemarginalcostofdomesticproductionorimportswithineachregion.AbroadrangeofenergypoliciesandaccompanyingmeasuresareintroducedacrossallregionstoreduceemissionsintheNZE.Thisincludes:renewablefuelmandates;efficiencystandards;marketreforms;
327、research,developmentanddeployment;andtheeliminationofinefficientfossilfuelsubsidies.Directemissionsreductionregulationsarealsoneededinsomecases.Inthetransportsector,forexample,regulationsareimplementedtoreducesalesofinternalcombustionenginevehiclesandincreasetheuseofliquidbiofuelsandsyntheticfuelsin
328、aviationandshipping,aswellasmeasurestoensurethatlowoilpricesdonotleadtoanincreaseinconsumption.CO2pricesareintroducedacrossallregionsintheNZE(Table2.2).Theyareassumedtobeintroduced in the immediate future across all advanced economies for the electricitygeneration,industryandenergyproductionsectors,
329、andtoriseonaveragetoUSD130pertonne(tCO2)by2030andtoUSD250/tCO2by2050.InanumberofothermajoreconomiesincludingChina,Brazil,RussiaandSouthAfricaCO2pricesinthesesectorsareassumedtorisetoaroundUSD200/tCO2in2050.CO2pricesareintroducedinallotheremergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,althoughitisassumedthatth
330、eypursuemoredirectpoliciestoadaptandtransformtheirenergysystemsandsothelevelofCO2pricesislowerthanelsewhere.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 53 2Table 2.2 CO2 prices for electricity, industry and energy production in the NZE USD(2019)pertonneofCO22025203020402050Advanced
331、economies75130205250Selectedemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies*4590160200Otheremergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies3153555*IncludesChina,Russia,BrazilandSouthAfrica.2.3 CO2emissionsGlobal energyrelated and industrial process CO2 emissions in the NZE fall to around21GtCO2in2030andtonetzeroin2050(Fig
332、ure2.2).3CO2emissionsinadvancedeconomiesasawholefalltonetzerobyaround2045andthesecountriescollectivelyremovearound0.2GtCO2fromtheatmospherein2050.Emissionsinseveralindividualemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesalsofalltonetzerowellbefore2050,butinaggregatetherearearound0.2GtCO2ofremainingemissionsin
333、thisgroupofcountriesin2050.TheseareoffsetbyCO2removalinadvancedeconomiestoprovidenetzeroCO2emissionsatthegloballevel.Figure 2.2 Global net CO2 emissions in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.CO2 emissions fall to net zero in advanced economies around 2045 and globally by 2050. Per capita emissions global
334、ly are similar by the early-2040s. Note:IncludesCO2emissionsfrominternationalaviationandshipping.3Intheperiodto2030,CO2emissionsintheNZEfallatabroadlysimilarratetotheP2illustrativepathwayintheIPCCSR1.5(IPCC,2018).TheP2scenarioisdescribedas“ascenariowithshiftstowardssustainableandhealthy consumption
335、patterns, lowcarbon technology innovation, and wellmanaged land systems withlimitedsocietalacceptabilityforBECCSbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage”.After2030,emissionsintheNZEfallatamuchfasterpacethanintheP2scenario,whichhas5.6GtCO2ofresidualenergysectorandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsremainingin2
336、050.200402050GtCOAdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesCOemissions3036903020402050tCOpercapitaPercapitaCOemissionsIEA. All rights reserved.54 International Energy Agency | Special Report Severalemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomieswithaverylargepotentia
337、lforproducingrenewablesbasedelectricityandbioenergyarealsoakeysourceofcarbondioxideremoval(CDR).ThisincludesmakinguseofrenewableelectricitysourcestoproducelargequantitiesofbiofuelswithCCUS,someofwhichisexported,andtocarryoutdirectaircapturewithcarboncaptureandstorage(DACCS).PercapitaCO2emissionsinad
338、vancedeconomiesdropfromaround8tCO2perpersonin2020toaround3.5tCO2in2030,alevelclosetotheaverageinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies in 2020. Per capita emissions also fall in emerging market and developingeconomies,butfromamuchlowerstartingpoint.Bytheearly2040s,percapitaemissionsinbothregionsarebro
339、adlysimilarataround0.5tCO2perperson.CumulativeglobalenergyrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsbetween2020and2050 amount to just over 460Gt in the NZE. Assuming parallel action to address CO2emissionsfromagriculture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU)overtheperiodto2050wouldresultinaround40GtCO2fromAFO
340、LU(seesection2.7.2).ThismeansthattotalCO2emissionsfromallsourcessome500GtCO2areinlinewiththeCO2budgetsincludedinthe IPCC SR1.5, which indicated that the total CO2 budget from 2020 consistent withprovidinga50%chanceoflimitingwarmingto1.5Cis500GtCO2(IPCC,2018).4AswellasreducingCO2emissionstonetzero,th
341、eNZEseekstoreducenonCO2emissionsfromtheenergysector.Methaneemissionsfromfossilfuelproductionanduse,forexample,fallfrom115milliontonnes(Mt)methanein2020(3.5GtCO2equivalentCO2eq)5to30Mtin2030and10Mtin2050.ThefastestandlargestreductionsinglobalemissionsintheNZEareinitiallyseenintheelectricitysector(Fig
342、ure2.3).Electricitygenerationwasthelargestsourceofemissionsin2020,butemissionsdropbynearly60%intheperiodto2030,mainlyduetomajorreductionsfromcoalfiredpowerplants,andtheelectricitysectorbecomesasmallnetnegativesourceofemissionsaround2040.Emissionsfromthebuildingssectorfallby40%between2020and2030thank
343、stoashiftawayfromtheuseoffossilfuelboilers,andretrofittingtheexistingbuildingstocktoimproveitsenergyperformance.Emissionsfromindustryandtransportbothfallbyaround20%overthisperiod,andtheirpaceofemissionsreductionsacceleratesduringthe2030sastherolloutoflowemissionsfuelsandotheremissionsreductionoption
344、sisscaledup.Nonetheless,thereareanumberofareasintransportandindustryinwhichitisdifficulttoeliminateemissionsentirelysuchasaviationandheavyindustryandbothsectorshaveasmalllevelofresidualemissionsin2050.TheseresidualemissionsareoffsetwithapplicationsofBECCSandDACCS.4ThisbudgetisbasedonTable2.2oftheIPC
345、CSR1.5(IPCC,2018).Itassumes0.53Cadditionalwarmingfromthe20062015periodtogivearemainingCO2budgetfrom2018of580GtCO2.Therewerearound80GtCO2emissionsemittedfrom2018to2020.5NonCO2gasesareconvertedtoCO2equivalentsbasedonthe100yearglobalwarmingpotentialsreportedbytheIPCC5thAssessmentReport(IPCC,2014).Oneto
346、nneofmethaneisequivalentto30tonnesofCO2.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 55 2Figure 2.3 Global net-CO2 emissions by sector, and gross and net CO2 emissions in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Emissions from electricity fall fastest, with declines in industry and transport a
347、ccelerating in the 2030s. Around 1.9 Gt CO2 are removed in 2050 via BECCS and DACCS. Notes:Other=agriculture,fuelproduction,transformationandrelatedprocessemissions,anddirectaircapture.BECCS=bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage;DACCS=directaircapturewithcarboncaptureandstorage.BECCSandDACCSincludesC
348、O2emissionscapturedandpermanentlystored.TheNZEincludesasystematicpreferenceforallnewassetsandinfrastructuretobeassustainableandefficientaspossible,andthisaccountsfor50%oftotalemissionsreductionsin 2050. Tackling emissions from existing infrastructure accounts for another 35% ofreductionsin2050,while
349、behaviouralchangesandavoideddemand,includingmaterialsefficiency6gainsandmodalshiftsinthetransportsector,providetheremaining15%ofemissionsreductions(seesection2.5.2).AwiderangeoftechnologiesandmeasuresaredeployedintheNZEtoreduceemissionsfromexistinginfrastructuresuchaspowerplants,industrialfacilities
350、,buildings,networks,equipmentandappliances.TheNZEisdesignedtominimisestrandedcapitalwherepossible,i.e.caseswheretheinitialinvestmentisnotrecouped,butinmanycasesearlyretirementsorlowerutilisationleadtostrandedvalue,i.e.areductioninrevenue.Therapiddeploymentofmoreenergyefficienttechnologies,electrific
351、ationofendusesandswiftgrowthofrenewablesallplayacentralpartinreducingemissionsacrossallsectorsintheNZE(Figure2.4).By2050,nearly90%ofallelectricitygenerationisfromrenewables,asisaround25%ofnonelectricenergyuseinindustryandbuildings.Thereisalsoamajorroleforemergingfuelsandtechnologies,notablyhydrogena
352、ndhydrogenbasedfuels,bioenergyandCCUS,especiallyinsectorswhereemissionsareoftenmostchallengingtoreduce.6Materialsefficiencyincludesstrategiesthatreducematerialdemand,orshifttotheuseofloweremissionsmaterialsorloweremissionsproductionroutes.Examplesincludelightweightingandrecycling.50502030
353、20402050GtCOElectricityBuildingsTransportIndustryOtherSector200402050GrossCOemissionsBECCSandDACCSNetCOemissionsGrossandnetCOemissionsIEA. All rights reserved.56 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 2.4 Average annual CO2 reductions from 2020 in the NZE IEA.Allri
354、ghtsreserved.Renewables and electrification make the largest contribution to emissions reductions, but a wide range of measures and technologies are needed to achieve net-zero emissions Notes: Activity = changes in energy service demand from economic and population growth.Behaviour=change in energy
355、service demand from user decisions, e.g. changing heating temperatures.Avoideddemand=changeinenergyservicedemandfromtechnologydevelopments,e.g.digitalisation.2.4 Totalenergysupplyandfinalenergyconsumption2.4.1 Totalenergysupply7Totalenergysupplyfallsto550exajoules(EJ)in2030,7%lowerthanin2020(Figure2
356、.5).Thisoccursdespitesignificantincreasesintheglobalpopulationandeconomybecauseofafallinenergyintensity(theamountofenergyusedtogenerateaunitofGDP).Energyintensityfallsby4%onaverageeachyearbetween2020and2030.Thisisachievedthrougha combination of electrification, a push to pursue all energy and materi
357、als efficiencyopportunities,behaviouralchangesthatreducedemandforenergyservices,andamajorshiftawayfromthetraditionaluseofbioenergy.8Thislevelofimprovementinenergyintensityismuchgreaterthanhasbeenachievedinrecentyears:between2010and2020,averageannualenergyintensityfellbylessthen2%eachyear.After2030,c
358、ontinuingelectrificationofendusesectorshelpstoreduceenergyintensityfurther,buttheemphasisonmaximisingenergyefficiencyimprovementsintheyearsupto7Thetermstotalprimaryenergysupply(TPES)ortotalprimaryenergydemand(TPED)havebeenrenamedastotal energy supply (TES) in accordance with the International Recomm
359、endations for Energy Statistics(IEA,2020a).8Modernformsofcookingrequiremuchlessenergythanthetraditionaluseofbiomassininefficientstoves.Forexample,cookingwithaliquefiedpetroleumgasstoveusesaroundfivetimeslessenergythanthetraditionaluseofbiomass.604020020202125 202630 203135 203640 204145 204650GtCO2A
360、ctivityBehaviourandavoideddemandEnergysupplyefficiencyBuildingsefficiencyIndustryefficiencyTransportefficiencyElectricvehiclesOtherelectrificationHydrogenWindandsolarTransportbiofuelsOtherrenewablesOtherpowerCCUSindustryCCUSpowerandfuelsupplyNetemissionsreductionChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-z
361、ero CO emissions in 2050 57 22030limitstheavailableopportunitiesinlateryears.Atthesametime,increasingproductionofnewfuels,suchasadvancedbiofuels,hydrogenandsyntheticfuels,tendstopushupenergyuse.Asaresult,therateofdeclineinenergyintensitybetween2030and2050slowsto2.7%peryear.Withcontinuedeconomicandpo
362、pulationgrowth,thismeansthattotalenergysupplyfallsslightlybetween2030and2040butthenremainsbroadlyflatto2050.Totalenergysupplyin2050intheNZEisclosetothelevelin2010,despiteaglobalpopulationthatisnearly3billionpeoplehigherandaglobaleconomythatisoverthreetimeslarger.Figure 2.5 Total energy supply in the
363、 NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Renewables and nuclear power displace most fossil fuel use in the NZE, and the share of fossil fuels falls from 80% in 2020 to just over 20% in 2050 Theenergymixin2050intheNZEismuchmorediversethantoday.In2020,oilprovided30%oftotalenergysupply,whilecoalsupplied26%andnatural
364、gas23%.In2050,renewablesprovidetwothirdsofenergyuse,splitbetweenbioenergy,wind,solar,hydroelectricityandgeothermal(Figure2.6).Thereisalsoalargeincreaseinenergysupplyfromnuclearpower,whichnearlydoublesbetween2020and2050.TherearelargereductionsintheuseoffossilfuelsintheNZE.Asashareoftotalenergysupply,
365、theyfallfrom80%in2020tojustover20%in2050.However,theirusedoesnotfalltozeroin2050:significantamountsarestillusedinproducingnonenergygoods,inplantswithCCUS,andinsectorswhereemissionsareespeciallyhardtoabatesuchasheavyindustryandlongdistancetransport.Allremainingemissionsin2050areoffsetbynegativeemissi
366、onselsewhere(Box2.2).Coalusefallsfrom5250milliontonnesofcoalequivalent(Mtce)in2020to2500Mtcein2030andtolessthan600Mtcein2050anaverageannualdeclineof7%eachyearfrom2020to2050.Oildemanddroppedbelow90millionbarrelsperday(mb/d)in2020anddemanddoesnotreturntoits2019peak:itfallsto72mb/din2030and24mb/din2050
367、anannualaveragedeclineofmorethan4%from2020to2050.Naturalgasusedroppedto3900billioncubicmetres(bcm)in2020,butexceedsitsprevious05006002000200402050EJOtherOtherrenewablesWindSolarHydroTraditionaluseofbiomassModerngaseousbioenergyModernliquidbioenergyModernsolidbioenergyNuclearNat
368、uralgasOilCoalIEA. All rights reserved.58 International Energy Agency | Special Report 2019peakinthemid2020sbeforestartingtodeclineasitisphasedoutintheelectricitysector.Naturalgasusedeclinesto3700bcmin2030and1750bcmin2050anannualaveragedeclineofjustunder3%from2020to2050.Figure 2.6 Total energy suppl
369、y of unabated fossil fuels and low-emissions energy sources in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Some fossil fuels are still used in 2050 in the production of non-energy goods, in plants equipped with CCUS, and in sectors where emissions are hard to abate Note:Lowemissionsincludestheuseoffossilfuelswith
370、CCUSandinnonenergyuses.Box 2.2 Why does fossil fuel use not fall to zero in 2050 in the NZE? Intotal,around120EJoffossilfuelsisconsumedin2050intheNZErelativeto460EJin2020.Threemainreasonsunderliewhyfossilfuelusedoesnotfalltozeroin2050,eventhoughtheenergysectoremitsnoCO2onanetbasis: Usefornonenergypu
371、rposes.Morethan30%oftotalfossilfuelusein2050intheNZEincluding70%ofoiluseisinapplicationswherethefuelsarenotcombustedandsodonotresultinanydirectCO2emissions(Figure2.7).Examplesincludeuseaschemicalfeedstocksandinlubricants,paraffinwaxesandasphalt.Therearemajoreffortstolimitfossilfueluseintheseapplicat
372、ionsintheNZE,forinstanceglobalplasticcollectionratesforrecyclingrisingfrom15%in2020to55%in2050,butfossilfueluseinnonenergyapplicationsstillrisesslightlyto2050. UsewithCCUS.Aroundhalfoffossilfuelusein2050isinplantsequippedwithCCUS(around 3.5GtCO2 emissions are captured from fossil fuels in 2050). Aro
373、und925bcmofnaturalgasisconvertedtohydrogenwithCCUS.Inaddition,around470Mtceofcoaland225bcmofnaturalgasareusedwithCCUSintheelectricityandindustrialsectors,mainlytoextendtheoperationsofyoungfacilitiesandreducestrandedassets.05006002010 2020 2030 2040 20502010 2020 2030 2040 2050EJOtherrenew
374、ablesSolarWindTraditionaluseofbiomassModernbioenergyHydroNuclearNaturalgasOilCoalUnabatedfossilfuelsLowemissionsChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 59 2 Useinsectorswheretechnologyoptionsarescarce.Theremaining20%offossilfuelusein2050intheNZEisinsectorswherethecompleteelimin
375、ationofemissionsis particularly challenging. Mostly this is oil, as it continues to fuel aviation inparticular.Asmallamountofunabatedcoalandnaturalgasareusedinindustryandin the production of energy. The unabated use of fossil fuel results in around1.7GtCO2emissionsin2050,whicharefullyoffsetbyBECCSan
376、dDACCS.Figure 2.7 Fossil fuel use and share by sector in 2050 in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.More than 30% of fossil fuel use in 2050 is not combusted and so does not result in direct CO2 emissions, around 50% is paired with CCUS Notes: Noncombustion includes use for nonemitting, nonenergy purpose
377、s such as petrochemicalfeedstocks,lubricantsandasphalt.Energyproductionincludesfuelusefordirectaircapture.Solid,liquidandgaseousfuelscontinuetoplayanimportantroleintheNZE,whichseeslargeincreasesinbioenergyandhydrogen(Figure2.8).Around40%ofbioenergyusedtodayisforthetraditionaluseofbiomassincooking:th
378、isisrapidlyphasedoutintheNZE.Modernformsofsolidbiomass,whichcanbeusedtoreduceemissionsinboththeelectricityandindustrysectors,risefrom32EJin2020to55EJin2030and75EJin2050,offsettingalargeportionofadropincoaldemand.Theuseoflowemissionsliquidfuels,suchasammonia,syntheticfuelsandliquidbiofuels,increasesf
379、rom3.5EJ(1.6millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperdaymboe/d)in2020tojustabove25EJ(12.5mboe/d)in2050.Thesupplyoflowemissionsgases,suchashydrogen,syntheticmethane,biogasandbiomethanerisesfrom2EJin2020to17EJin2030and50EJin2050.Theincreaseingaseoushydrogenproductionbetween2020and2030intheNZEistwiceasfastasthe
380、fastesttenyearincreaseinshalegasproductionintheUnitedStates.20%40%60%80%100%1020304050NoncombustionEnergyproductionIndustryPowerTransportBuildingsEJwithCCUSwithoutCCUSwithCCUSwithoutCCUSwithCCUSwithoutCCUSShareofsectorCoalNaturalgasOiltotal(rightaxis)IEA. All rights reserved.60 International Energy
381、Agency | Special Report Figure 2.8 Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Increases in low-emissions solids, liquids and gases from bioenergy, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels offset some of the declines in coal, oil and natural gas Notes:Hydrogenconversionlosses=consumpti
382、onofnaturalgaswhenproducinglowcarbonmerchanthydrogenusingsteammethanereforming.Hydrogenbasedincludeshydrogen,ammoniaandsyntheticfuels.2.4.2 TotalfinalconsumptionTotalfinalconsumptionworldwidereboundsmarginallyfollowingits5%dropin2020,butitneverreturnsto2019levelsintheNZE(435EJ).Itfallsbyjustunder1%e
383、achyearonaveragebetween2025and2050to340EJ.Energyefficiencymeasuresandelectrificationarethetwomaincontributingfactors,withbehaviouralchangesandmaterialsefficiencyalsoplayingarole.Withouttheseimprovements,finalenergyconsumptionin2050wouldbearound640EJ, around 90% higher than the level in the NZE. Fina
384、l consumption of electricityincreasesby25%from2020to2030,andby2050itismorethandoublethelevelin2020.TheincreaseinelectricityconsumptionfromendusessectorsandfromhydrogenproductionmeansthatoverallannualelectricitydemandgrowthisequivalenttoaddinganelectricitymarketthesizeofIndiaeveryyearintheNZE.Theshar
385、eofelectricityinglobalfinalenergyconsumptionjumpsfrom20%in2020to26%in2030andtoaround50%in2050(Figure2.9).Thedirectuseofrenewablesinbuildingsandindustrytogetherwithlowemissionsfuelssuchasbioenergyandhydrogenbasedfuelsprovideafurther28%offinalenergyconsumptionin 2050; fossil fuels comprise the remaind
386、er, most of which are used in nonemittingprocessesorinfacilitiesequippedwithCCUS.Inindustry,mostoftheglobalemissionsreductionsintheNZEduringtheperiodto2030aredeliveredthroughenergyandmaterialsefficiencyimprovements,electrificationofheat,andfuelswitchingtosolarthermal,geothermalandbioenergy.Thereafte
387、r,CCUSandhydrogenplayanincreasinglyimportantroleinreducingCO2emissions,especiallyinheavyindustriessuchassteel,cementandchemicals.Electricityconsumptioninindustrymorethandoublesbetween2020and2050,providing45%oftotalindustrialenergyneedsin2050(Figure2.10).500020040205020002010202
388、02030204020502000200402050EJCoalOilNaturalgasHydrogenconversionTraditionalbiomassModernbioenergyHydrogenbasedSolidsLiquidsGaseslossesChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 61 2Thedemandformerchanthydrogeninindustryincreasesfromlessthan1Mttodaytoaround40Mtin2050.Afur
389、ther10%ofindustrialenergydemandin2050ismetbyfossilfuelsusedinplantsequippedwithCCUS.Figure 2.9 Global total final consumption by fuel in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.The share of electricity in final energy use jumps from 20% in 2020 to 50% in 2050 Note:Hydrogenbasedincludeshydrogen,ammoniaandsynth
390、eticfuels.Intransport,thereisarapidtransitionawayfromoilworldwide,whichprovidedmorethan90%offuelusein2020.Inroadtransport,electricitycomestodominatethesector,providingmorethan60%ofenergyusein2050,whilehydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsplayasmallerrole,mainlyinfuellinglonghaulheavydutytrucks.Inshipping,en
391、ergyefficiencyimprovementssignificantlyreduceenergyneeds(especiallyupto2030),whileadvancedbiofuelsandhydrogenbasedfuels,suchasammonia,increasinglydisplaceoil.Inaviation,theuseofsyntheticliquidsandadvancedbiofuelsgrowsrapidly,andtheirshareoftotalenergydemandrisesfromalmostzerotodaytoalmost80%in2050.O
392、verall,electricitybecomes the dominant fuel in the transport sector globally by the early 2040s, and itaccountsforaround45%ofenergyconsumptioninthesectorin2050(comparedwith1.5%in 2020). Hydrogen and hydrogenbased fuels account for nearly 30% of consumption(almostzeroin2020)andbioenergyforafurther15%
393、(around4%in2020).Inbuildings,theelectrificationofendusesincludingheatingleadstodemandforelectricityincreasingbyaround35%between2020and2050:itbecomesthedominantfuel,reaching16000terawatthours(TWh)in2050,andaccountingfortwothirdsoftotalbuildingssectorenergyconsumption.By2050,twothirdsofresidentialbuil
394、dingsinadvancedeconomiesandaround40%ofresidentialbuildingsinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesarefittedwithaheatpump.Onsiterenewablesbasedenergysystemssuchassolarwaterheatersandbiomassboilersprovideafurtherquarteroffinalenergyuseinthebuildingssectorin2050(upfrom6%in2020).Lowemissionsdistrictheatin
395、gandhydrogenprovideonly7%ofenergyuse,butplayasignificantroleinsomeregions.500300350200402050200402050EJOilNaturalgasCoalHeatModernbioenergyTraditionaluseofbiomassHydrogenbasedOtherrenewablesFossilfuelsunabatedFossilfuelswithCCUSHydrogenbasedNuclearSolarPVandwindHydro
396、OtherrenewablesFuelsandotherElectricityuseFuelsandotherElectricityuseIEA. All rights reserved.62 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 2.10 Global final energy consumption by sector and fuel in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.There is a wholesale shift away from unabated fossil fuel use
397、to electricity, renewables, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, modern bioenergy and CCUS in end-use sectors Note:Hydrogenbasedincludeshydrogen,ammoniaandsyntheticfuels.Buildingsenergyconsumptionfallsby25%between2020and2030,largelyasaresultofamajorpushtoimproveefficiencyandtophaseoutthetraditionaluse
398、ofsolidbiomassforcooking: it is replaced by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), biogas, electric cookers andimprovedbioenergystoves.Universalaccesstoelectricityisachievedby2030,andthisaddslessthan1%toglobalelectricitydemandin2030.Energyconsumptioninthebuildingssectorcontractsbyaround15%between2030and2050
399、givencontinuedefficiencyimprovementsandelectrification.By2050,energyuseinbuildingsis35%lowerthanin2020.Energyefficiencymeasuresincludingimprovingbuildingenvelopesandensuringthatallnewappliancesbroughttomarketarethemostefficientmodelsavailableplayakeyroleinlimiting the rise in electricity demand in t
400、he NZE. Without these measures, electricitydemandinbuildingswouldbearound10000TWhhigherin2050,oraround70%higherthanthelevelintheNZE.How does the NZE compare with similar 1.5 C scenarios assessed by the IPCC? TheIPCCSR1.5includes90individualscenariosthathaveatleasta50%chanceoflimitingwarmingin2100to1
401、.5C(IPCC,2018).9Only18ofthesescenarioshavenetzeroCO2energysectorandindustrialprocessemissionsin2050.Inotherwords,onlyoneinfiveofthe1.5CscenariosassessedbytheIPCChavethesamelevelofemissionsreduction9Includes53scenarioswithnoorlimitedtemperatureovershootand37scenarioswithahighertemperatureovershoot.40
402、800402050200402050200402050EJOtherHydrogenbasedOtherrenewablesModernbioenergyTraditionaluseofbiomassElectricityFossilfuelswithCCUSUnabatedfossilfuelsIndustryTransportBuildingsS P O T L I G H TChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 63
403、 2ambition for the energy and industrial process sectors to 2050 as theNZE.10 Somecomparisonsbetweenthese18scenariosandtheNZEin2050(Figure2.11):Figure 2.11 Comparison of selected indicators of the IPCC scenarios and the NZE in 2050 IEA.Allrightsreserved.The NZE has the lowest level of energy-related
404、 CDR and bioenergy of any scenario that achieves net-zero energy sector and industrial process CO2 emissions in 2050 Notes:CCUS=carboncapture,utilisationandstorage;CDR=carbondirectremoval;TES=totalenergysupply;TFC=totalfinalconsumption.EnergyrelatedCDRincludesCO2capturedthroughbioenergywithCCUSanddi
405、rectaircapturewithCCUSandputintopermanentstorage.Windandsolarsharearegivenasapercentageoftotalelectricitygeneration.Only17ofthe18scenariosassessedbytheIPCCreporthydrogenuseinTFC. UseofCCUS.ThescenariosassessedbytheIPCChaveamedianofaround15GtCO2capturedusingCCUSin2050,morethandoublethelevelintheNZE.
406、UseofCDR.CO2emissionscapturedandstoredfromBECCSandDACCSintheIPCCscenariosrangefrom3.516GtCO2in2050,comparedwith1.9GtCO2intheNZE.10Thelowenergydemandscenariohasaround4.5GtCO2energysectorandindustrialprocessemissionsin2050andisnotincludedinthiscomparison.10203040EJHydrogeninTFC25%50%75%100%Windandsola
407、rshare80160240320EJBioenergyTES5101520GtCO2CCUS5101520GtCOEnergyrelatedCDR0EJScenariosassessedbyIPCCNZETFCIEA. All rights reserved.64 International Energy Agency | Special Report Bioenergy.TheIPCCscenariosuseamedianof200EJofprimarybioenergyin2050(comparedwith63EJtoday)andanumberusemoretha
408、n300EJ.TheNZEuses100EJofprimarybioenergyin2050. Energy efficiency. Total final consumption in the IPCC scenarios range from300550EJin2050(comparedwitharound410EJin2020).TheNZEhasfinalenergyconsumptionof340EJin2050. Hydrogen. The IPCC scenarios have a median of 18EJ hydrogen in total finalconsumption
409、in2050,comparedwith33EJintheNZE.11 Electricitygeneration.Thesharesofwindandsolarintotalelectricitygenerationin2050intheIPCCscenariosrangefromaround1580%withamedianvalueof50%.IntheNZE,windandsolarprovide70%oftotalgenerationin2050.2.5 KeypillarsofdecarbonisationAchievingtherapidreductioninCO2emissions
410、overthenext30yearsintheNZErequiresabroad range of policy approaches and technologies (Figure2.12). The key pillars ofdecarbonisationoftheglobalenergysystemareenergyefficiency,behaviouralchanges,electrification,renewables,hydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels,bioenergyandCCUS.Figure 2.12 Emissions reductions
411、 by mitigation measure in the NZE, 2020-2050 IEA.Allrightsreserved.Solar, wind and energy efficiency deliver around half of emissions reductions to 2030 in the NZE, while electrification, CCUS and hydrogen ramp up thereafter Notes:Activity=energyservicedemandchangesfromeconomicandpopulationgrowth.Be
412、haviour=energyservicedemandchangesfromuserdecisions,e.g.changingheatingtemperatures.Avoideddemand=energyservicedemandchangesfromtechnologydevelopments,e.g.digitalisation.Otherfuelshifts=switchingfromcoalandoiltonaturalgas,nuclear,hydropower,geothermal,concentratingsolarpowerormarine.11TheNZEvaluefor
413、hydrogenincludesthetotalenergycontentofhydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsconsumedinfinalenergyconsumption.0302050GtCOActivityBehaviourandavoideddemandEnergyefficiencyHydrogenbasedElectrificationBioenergyWindandsolarOtherfuelshiftsCCUS+24%50%+51%100%MitigationmeasuresMeasuresMeasuresChapter 2 |
414、 A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 65 22.5.1 EnergyefficiencyMinimisingenergydemandgrowththroughimprovementsinenergyefficiencymakesacriticalcontributionintheNZE.Manyefficiencymeasuresinindustry,buildings,appliancesandtransportcanbeputintoeffectandscaledupveryquickly.Asaresult,energye
415、fficiencymeasuresarefrontloadedintheNZE,andtheyplaytheirlargestroleincurbingenergydemandandemissionsintheperiodto2030.Althoughenergyefficiencyimprovesfurtherafter2030,itscontributiontooverallemissionsreductionsfallsasothermitigationmeasuresplay an expanding role. Without the energy efficiency, behav
416、ioural changes andelectrificationmeasuresdeployedintheNZE,finalenergyconsumptionwouldbearound300EJhigherin2050,almost90%abovethe2050levelintheNZE(Figure2.13).Efficiencyimprovementsalsohelpreducethevulnerabilityofbusinessesandconsumerstopotentialdisruptionstoelectricitysupplies.Figure 2.13 Total fina
417、l consumption and demand avoided by mitigation measure in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Energy efficiency plays a key role in reducing energy consumption across end-use sectors Notes:CCUS=carboncaptureutilisationandstorage.Otherfuelswitchincludesswitchingtohydrogenrelatedfuels,bioenergy,solarthermal
418、,geothermal,ordistrictheat.Inthebuildingssector,manyefficiencymeasuresyieldfinancialsavingsaswellasreducingenergyuseandemissions.IntheNZE,thereareimmediateandrapidimprovementsinenergyefficiencyinbuildings,mainlyfromlargescaleretrofitprogrammes.Around2.5%ofexistingresidentialbuildingsinadvancedeconom
419、iesareretrofittedeachyearto2050intheNZEtocomplywithzerocarbonreadybuildingstandards12(comparedwithacurrentretrofitrateoflessthan1%).Inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,buildingreplacement12Azerocarbonreadybuildingishighlyenergyefficientanduseseitherrenewableenergydirectlyorfromanenergysupplythatw
420、illbefullydecarbonisedby2050intheNZE(suchaselectricityordistrictheat).Azerocarbonreadybuildingwillbecomeazerocarbonbuildingby2050,withoutfurtherchangestothebuildingoritsequipment(seeChapter3).20 2030 20502020 2030 20502020 2030 2050EJNZEdemandElectricityOtherfuelswitchEfficiencyBehaviourI
421、ndustryBuildingsTransportAvoideddueto:IEA. All rights reserved.66 International Energy Agency | Special Report ratesarehigherandtheannualrateofretrofitsisaround2%throughto2050.By2050,thevastmajorityofexistingresidentialbuildingsareretrofittedtobezerocarbonbuildings.Energyrelatedbuildingcodesareintro
422、ducedinallregionsby2030toensurethatvirtuallyall new buildings constructed are zerocarbonready. Minimum energy performancestandards and replacement schemes for lowefficiency appliances are introduced orstrengthenedinthe2020sinallcountries.Bythemid2030s,nearlyallhouseholdappliancessoldworldwideareasef
423、ficientasthemostefficientmodelsavailabletoday.Inthetransportsector,stringentfueleconomystandardsandensuringnonewpassengercarsrunningoninternalcombustionengines(ICEs)aresoldgloballyfrom2035resultinarapidshiftinvehiclesalestowardmuchmoreefficientelectricvehicles(EVs).13Theimpactonefficiencyisseeninthe
424、2030s,asthecompositionofthevehiclestockchanges:electriccarsmakeup20%ofallcarsontheroadin2030and60%in2040(comparedwith1%today).Continuousimprovementsinthefueleconomyofheavyroadvehiclestakeplacethroughto2050astheyswitchtoelectricityorfuelcells,whileefficiencyinshippingandaviationimprovesasmoreefficien
425、tplanesandshipsreplaceexistingstock.Intheindustrysector,mostmanufacturingstockisalreadyquiteefficient,buttherearestillopportunities for energy efficiency improvements. Energy management systems,bestinclassindustrialequipmentsuchaselectricmotors,variablespeeddrives,heatersandgrindersareinstalled,andp
426、rocessintegrationoptionssuchaswasteheatrecoveryareexploitedtotheirmaximumeconomicpotentialsintheperiodto2030intheNZE.After2030,therateofefficiencyimprovementslowsbecausemanyofthetechnologiesneededtoreduce emissions in industry in the NZE require more energy than their equivalentconventionaltechnolog
427、ies.TheuseofCCUS,forexample,increasesenergyconsumptiontooperate the capture equipment, and producing electrolytic hydrogen onsite requiresadditionalenergythanthatneededforthemainmanufacturingprocess.Table 2.3 Key global milestones for energy efficiency in the NZE Sector202020302050Totalenergysupply2
428、003050Annualenergyintensityimprovement(MJperUSDGDP)1.6%4.2%2.7%IndustryEnergyintensityofdirectreducedironfromnaturalgas(GJpertonne)121110Processenergyintensityofprimarychemicals(GJpertonne)171615TransportAveragefuelconsumptionofICEheavytrucksfleet(index2020=100)1008163BuildingsShareofzero
429、carbonreadybuildingsintotalstock85%Newbuildings:heating&coolingenergyconsumption(index2020=100)1005020Appliances:unitenergyconsumption(index2020=100)1007560Notes:ICE=internalcombustionengine;zerocarbonreadybuildings=seedescriptioninsection3.7.13In2020,theaveragebatteryelectriccarrequiredaround30%oft
430、heenergyoftheaverageICEcartoprovidethesamelevelofactivity.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 67 22.5.2 BehaviouralchangeThewholescaletransformationoftheenergysectordemonstratedintheNZEcannotbeachievedwithouttheactiveandwillingparticipationofcitizens.Itisultimatelypeoplewho
431、drive demand for energyrelated goods and services, and societal norms and personalchoiceswillplayapivotalroleinsteeringtheenergysystemontoasustainablepath.Justunder40% of emissions reductionsintheNZEresultfromtheadoption oflowcarbontechnologies that require massive policy support and investment but
432、little directengagementfromcitizensorconsumers,e.g.technologiesinelectricitygenerationorsteelproduction.Afurther55%ofemissionsreductionsrequireamixtureofthedeploymentoflowcarbon technologies and the active involvement or engagement of citizens andconsumers,e.g.installingasolarwaterheaterorbuyinganEV
433、.Afinal8%ofemissionsreductionsstemfrombehaviouralchangesandmaterialsefficiencygainsthatreduceenergydemand,e.g.flyinglessforbusinesspurposes(Figure2.14).Consumerattitudescanalsoimpactinvestmentdecisionsbybusinessesconcernedaboutpublicimage.IntheNZE,behaviouralchangereferstochangesinongoingorrepeatedb
434、ehaviouronthepartofconsumerswhichimpactenergyservicedemandortheenergyintensityofanenergyrelatedactivity.14ReductionsinenergyservicedemandintheNZEalsocomefromadvancesintechnology,butthesearenotcountedasbehaviouralchanges.Forexample,increaseddigitalisationandagrowingmarketshareofsmartappliances,suchas
435、smartthermostatsorspacedifferentiatedthermalcontrolsreducethenecessityforpeopletoplayanactiveroleinenergysavinginhomesovertimeintheNZE.TherearethreemaintypesofbehaviouralchangeincludedintheNZE.Awiderangeofgovernmentinterventionscouldbeusedtomotivatethesechanges(seesection2.7.1). Reducing excessive o
436、r wasteful energy use. This includes reducing energy use inbuildingsandonroads,e.g.byreducingindoortemperaturesettings,adoptingenergysavingpracticesinhomesandlimitingdrivingspeedsonmotorwaysto100kilometresperhour. Transportmodeswitching.Thisincludesashifttocycling,walking,ridesharingortakingbusesfor
437、tripsincitiesthatwouldotherwisebemadebycar,aswellasreplacingregionalairtravelbyhighspeedrailinregionswherethisisfeasible.Manyofthesetypesofbehaviouralchangeswouldrepresentabreakinfamiliarorhabitualwaysoflifeandassuchwouldrequireadegreeofpublicacceptanceandevenenthusiasm.Manywouldalsorequirenewinfras
438、tructure,suchascyclelanesandhighspeedrailnetworks,clearpolicysupportandhighqualityurbanplanning. Materialsefficiencygains.Thisincludesreduceddemandformaterials,e.g.higherratesofrecycling,andimproveddesignandconstructionofbuildingsandvehicles.Thescopeforgainstosomeextentreflectssocietalpreferences.Fo
439、rinstance,insomeplacesthere14Thismeans,forexample,thatpurchasinganelectricheatpumpinsteadofagasboilerisnotconsideredasabehaviouralchange,asitisbothaninfrequenteventanddoesnotnecessarilyimpactenergyservicedemand.IEA. All rights reserved.68 International Energy Agency | Special Report hasbeenashiftawa
440、yfromtheuseofsingleuseplasticsinrecentyears,atrendthatacceleratesintheNZE.Gainsinmaterialsefficiencydependonamixtureoftechnicalinnovationinmanufacturingandbuildingsconstruction,standardsandregulationstosupportbestpracticeandensureuniversaladoptionoftheseinnovations,andincreasedrecyclinginsocietyatla
441、rge.Figure 2.14 Role of technology and behavioural change in emissions reductions in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Around 8% of emissions reductions stem from behavioural changes and materials efficiencyNotes:Lowcarbontechnologiesincludelowcarbonelectricitygeneration,lowcarbongasesinendusesandbiofue
442、ls. Lowcarbon technologies with the active involvement of citizens includes fuel switching,electrification and efficiency gains in enduses. Behavioural changes and materials efficiency includestransportmodeswitching,curbingexcessiveorwastefulenergyuse,andmaterialsefficiencymeasures.Threequarters of
443、the emissions reductions from behavioural changes in the NZE areachievedthroughtargetedgovernmentpoliciessupportedbyinfrastructuredevelopment,e.g. a shift to rail travel supported by highspeed railways. The remainder come fromadoptingvoluntarychangesinenergysavinghabits,mainlyinhomes.Eveninthiscase,
444、publicawarenesscampaignscanhelpshapedaytodaychoicesabouthowconsumersuseenergy.(DetailsofwhatgovernmentscandotohelpbringaboutbehaviouralchangesarediscussedinChapter4).Behaviouralchangesreduceenergyrelatedactivitybyaround1015%onaverageovertheperiodto2050intheNZE,reducingoverallglobalenergydemandbyover
445、37EJin2050(Figure2.15).In2030,around1.7GtCO2emissionsareavoided,45%ofwhichcomefromtransport,notablythroughmeasurestophaseoutcaruseincitiesandtoimprovefueleconomy.Forexample,reducingspeedlimitsonmotorwaysto100km/hreducesemissionsfromroadtransportby3%or140MtCO2in2030.Ashiftawayfromsingleoccupancycarus
446、etowardsridesharingorcyclingandwalkinginlargecitiessavesafurther185MtCO2.Around353025203020402050GtCO2LowcarbontechnologiesLowcarbontechnologieswiththeactiveinvolvementofconsumersBehaviouralchangesandmaterialsChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 69 240%ofemissions
447、savingsin2030occurinindustrybecauseofimprovementsinmaterialsefficiencyandincreasedrecycling,withthebiggestimpactscomingfromreducingwasteandimprovingthedesignandconstructionofbuildings.Theremainderofemissionssavingsin2030arefrombehaviouralchangesinbuildings,forexampleadjustingspaceheatingandcoolingte
448、mperatures.Figure 2.15 CO2 emissions and energy demand reductions from behavioural changes and materials efficiency in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.By 2030, behaviour changes and materials efficiency gains reduce emissions by 1.7 Gt CO2, and energy demand by 27 EJ; reductions increase further throu
449、gh to 2050 In2050,thegrowingimportanceoflowemissionselectricityandfuelsintransportandbuildingsmeansthat90%ofemissionsreductionsareinindustry,predominantlyinthosesectorswhereitismostchallengingtotackleemissionsdirectly.Materialefficiencyalonereducesdemandforcementandsteelby20%,savingaround1700MtCO2.O
450、ftheemissionsreductions in transport in 2050, nearly 80% come from measuresto reduce passengeraviationdemand,withtheremainderfromroadtransport.Thescope,scaleandspeedofadoptionofthebehaviouralchangesintheNZEvarieswidelybetweenregions,dependingonseveralfactorsincludingtheabilityofexistinginfrastructur
451、etosupportsuchchangesanddifferencesingeography,climate,urbanisation,socialnormsandculturalvalues.Forexample,regionswithhighlevelsofprivatecarusetodayseeamoregradualshiftthanotherstowardspublictransport,sharedcaruse,walkingandcycling;airtravelisassumedtoswitchtohighspeedrailonexistingorpotentialroute
452、sonlywheretrainscouldofferasimilarjourneytime;andthepotentialformoderatingairconditioninginbuildingsandvehiclestakesintoaccountseasonaleffectsandhumidity.Wealthierregionsgenerallyhavehigherlevelsofpercapitaenergyrelatedactivity,andbehaviouralchangesplayanespeciallyimportantroleintheseregionsinreduci
453、ngexcessiveorwastefulenergyconsumption.4032242050EJ3.02.41.81.20.6203020402050GtCOTransportBuildingsIndustryEmissionsEnergy demandIEA. All rights reserved.70 International Energy Agency | Special Report MostofthebehaviouralchangesintheNZEwouldhavesomeeffectonnearlyeveryonesdailylife,butno
454、nerepresentsaradicaldeparturefromenergyreducingpracticesalreadyexperiencedinmanypartsoftheworldtoday.Forexample,inJapananawarenesscampaignhas successfully reduced cooling demand in line with the reductions assumed in manyregionsintheNZEby2040;legislationtolimiturbancarusehasbeenintroducedinmanylarge
455、cities;andspeedlimitreductionstoaround100km/h(theleveladoptedgloballyintheNZEby2030)havebeentestedintheUnitedKingdomandSpaintoreduceairpollutionandimprovesafety.Table 2.4 Key global milestones for behavioural change in the NZE SectorYearMilestoneIndustry2020 Globalaverageplasticscollectionrate=17%.2
456、030 Globalaverageplasticscollectionrate=27%. Lightweightingreducestheweightofanaveragepassengercarby10%.2050 Globalaverageplasticscollectionrate=54%. Efficiencyoffertiliseruseimprovedby10%.Transport2030 Ecodrivingandmotorwayspeedlimitsof100km/hintroduced. UseofICEcarsphasedoutinlargecities.2050 Regi
457、onalflightsareshiftedtohighspeedrailwherefeasible. Businessandlonghaulleisureairtraveldoesnotexceed2019levels.Buildings2030 Spaceheatingtemperaturesmoderatedto1920Conaverage. Spacecoolingtemperaturesmoderatedto2425Conaverage. Excessivehotwatertemperaturesreduced.2050 Useofenergyintensivematerialsper
458、unitoffloorareadecreasesby30%. Buildinglifetimeextendedby20%onaverage.Note:Ecodrivinginvolvespreemptivestoppingandstarting;ICE=internalcombustionengine.2.5.3 ElectrificationThedirectuseoflowemissionselectricityinplaceoffossilfuelsisoneofthemostimportantdriversofemissionsreductionsintheNZE,accounting
459、foraround20%ofthetotalreductionachievedby2050.Globalelectricitydemandmorethandoublesbetween2020and2050,withthelargestabsoluteriseinelectricityuseinendusesectorstakingplaceinindustry,whichregistersanincreaseofmorethan11000TWhbetween2020and2050.Muchofthisisduetotheincreasinguseofelectricityforlowandme
460、diumtemperatureheatandinsecondaryscrapbasedsteelproduction(Figure2.16).Intransport,theshareofelectricityincreasesfromlessthan2%in2020toaround45%in2050intheNZE.Morethan60%oftotalpassengercarsalesgloballyareEVsby2030(comparedwith5%ofsalesin2020),andthecarfleetisalmostfullyelectrifiedworldwideby2050(th
461、eremainderarehydrogenpoweredcars).TheincreaseinelectricpassengercarsalesgloballyoverthenexttenyearsisovertwentytimeshigherthantheincreaseinICEcarsalesoverthelastdecade.ElectrificationisslowerfortrucksbecauseitdependsonhigherChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 71 2density ba
462、tteries than those currently available on the market, especially for longhaultrucking, and on new highpower charging infrastructure: electric trucks neverthelessaccountforaround25%oftotalheavytrucksalesgloballyby2030andaroundtwothirdsin2050.Theelectrificationofshippingandaviationismuchmorelimitedand
463、onlygetsunderwayafterlargeimprovementsinbatteryenergydensity(seesection3.6)(Figure2.17).IntheNZE,demandforbatteriesfortransportreachesaround14TWhin2050,90timesmorethanin2020.Growthinbatterydemandtranslatesintoanincreasingdemandforcriticalminerals.Forexample,demandforlithiumforuseinbatteriesgrows30fo
464、ldto2030andismorethan100timeshigherin2050thanin2020(IEA,2021).Figure 2.16 Global electricity demand and share of electricity in energy consumption in selected applications in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Global electricity demand more than doubles in the period to 2050, with the largest rises to pr
465、oduce hydrogen and in industry Notes:Merchanthydrogen=hydrogenproducedbyonecompanytoselltoothers.Lightdutyvehicles=passengercarsandvans.Heavytrucks=mediumfreighttrucksandheavyfreighttrucks.Inbuildings,electricitydemandismoderatedintheNZEbyahugepushtoimprovetheefficiencyofappliances,cooling,lightinga
466、ndbuildingenvelopes.Butalargeincreaseinactivity,alongwiththewidespreadelectrificationofheatingthroughtheuseofheatpumps,meansthatelectricitydemandinbuildingsstillrisessteadilyovertheperiodreaching66%oftotalenergyconsumptioninbuildingsin2050.Alongsidethegrowthinthedirectuseofelectricityinendusesectors
467、,thereisalsoahugeincreaseintheuseofelectricityforhydrogenproduction.Merchanthydrogenproducedusingelectrolysisrequiresaround12000TWhin2050intheNZE,whichisgreaterthancurrenttotalannualelectricitydemandofChinaandtheUnitedStatescombined.25%50%75%4000800012000MerchanthydrogenHeavyindustryLightindustryHea
468、tinginbuildingsCookingLightdutyvehiclesHeavytrucksTWh202020302050202020302050Electricitydemand:Electricityshareinconsumption(rightaxis):IEA. All rights reserved.72 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 2.17 Battery demand growth in transport and battery energy density in the NZE IEA.Al
469、lrightsreserved.Nearly 20 battery giga-factories open every year to 2030 to satisfy battery demand for electric cars in the NZE; higher density batteries are needed to electrify long-haul trucks Notes:LiS=lithiumsulphurbattery;Whperkg=Watthoursperkilogramme.Theaccelerationofelectricitydemandgrowthfr
470、om2%peryearoverthepastdecadeto3%peryearthroughto2050,togetherwithasignificantlyincreasedshareofvariablerenewableelectricitygeneration,meansthatannualelectricitysectorinvestmentintheNZEisthreetimeshigheronaveragethaninrecentyears.Theriseinelectricitydemandalsocallsforextensive efforts to ensure the s
471、tability and flexibility of electricity supply throughdemandsidemanagement,theoperationofflexiblelowemissionssourcesofgenerationincludinghydropowerandbioenergy,andbatterystorage.Table 2.5 Key global milestones for electrification in the NZE Sector202020302050Shareofelectricityintotalfinalconsumption
472、20%26%49%IndustryShareofsteelproductionusingelectricarcfurnace24%37%53%Electricityshareoflightindustry43%53%76%TransportShareofelectricvehiclesinstock:cars1%20%86%two/threewheelers26%54%100%bus2%23%79%vans0%22%84%heavytrucks0%8%59%Annualbatterydemandforelectricvehicles(TWh)0.166.614BuildingsHeatpump
473、sinstalled(millions)1806001800Shareofheatpumpsinenergydemandforheating7%20%55%Millionpeoplewithoutaccesstoelectricity78600200400600800480203020402050WhperkgTWhperyearLonghaultrucksCars,buses,deliverytrucksBatterycelldensity(rightaxis)Solidstate(400 Whperkg)requiredforelectric longhaultruc
474、ksLiS(orother)(650Whperkg)requiredforelectricaircraftsChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 73 22.5.4 RenewablesAtagloballevel,renewableenergytechnologiesarethekeytoreducingemissionsfromelectricitysupply.Hydropowerhasbeenaleadinglowemissionsourceformanydecades,butitismainlyth
475、eexpansionofwindandsolarthattriplesrenewablesgenerationby2030andincreasesitmorethaneightfoldby2050intheNZE.Theshareofrenewablesintotalelectricitygenerationgloballyincreasesfrom29%in2020toover60%in2030andtonearly90%in2050(Figure2.18).Toachievethis,annualcapacityadditionsofwindandsolarbetween2020and20
476、50arefivetimeshigherthantheaverageoverthelastthreeyears.Dispatchablerenewablesarecriticaltomaintainelectricitysecurity,togetherwithotherlowcarbongeneration,energystorageandrobustelectricitynetworks.IntheNZE,themaindispatchable renewables globally in 2050 are hydropower (12% of generation),bioenergy(
477、5%),concentratingsolarpower(2%)andgeothermal(1%).Figure 2.18 Fuel shares in total energy use in selected applications in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Renewables are central to emissions reductions in electricity, and they make major contributions to cut emissions in buildings, industry and transpor
478、t both directly and indirectly Notes:Indirectrenewables=useofelectricityanddistrictheatproducedbyrenewables.Otherlowcarbon=nuclearpower,facilitiesequippedwithCCUS,andlowcarbonhydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels.IEA. All rights reserved.74 International Energy Agency | Special Report Renewablesalsoplayanim
479、portantroleinreducingemissionsinbuildings,industryandtransport.Renewablescanbeusedeitherindirectly,viatheconsumptionofelectricityordistrictheatingthatwasproducedbyrenewables,ordirectly,mainlytoproduceheat.Intransport,renewablesplayanimportantindirectroleinreducingemissionsbygeneratingtheelectricityt
480、opowerelectricvehicles.Theyalsocontributetodirectemissionsreductionsthroughtheuseofliquidbiofuelsandbiomethane.Inbuildings,renewableenergyismainlyusedforwaterandspaceheating.Thedirectuseofrenewableenergyrisesfromabout10%ofheatingdemandgloballyin2020to40%in2050,aboutthreequartersoftheincreaseisinthef
481、ormofsolarthermalandgeothermal.Deepretrofitsandenergyrelatedbuildingcodesarepairedwithrenewableswheneverpossible:almostallbuildingswithavailableroofspaceandsufficientsolarinsolationareequippedwithsolarthermalwaterheatersby2050,astheyaremoreproductivepersquaremetrethansolarPVandasheatstorageinwaterta
482、nksisgenerallymorecosteffectivethanstorageofelectricity. Rooftop solar PV, which produces renewable electricity onsite, is currentlyinstalledonaround25millionrooftopsworldwide;thenumberincreasesto100millionrooftopsby2030and240millionby2050.Afurther15%ofheatinginbuildingsin2030comesindirectlyfromrene
483、wablesintheformofelectricity,andthisrisestoalmost40%in2050.Inindustry,bioenergyisthemostimportantdirectrenewableenergysourceforlowandmediumtemperatureneedsintheNZE.Solarthermalandgeothermalalsoproducelowtemperatureheatforuseinnonenergyintensiveindustriesandancillaryordownstreamprocessesinheavyindust
484、ries.Bioenergy,solarthermalandgeothermaltogetherprovideabout15%ofindustryheatdemandin2030,roughlydoubletheirsharein2010,andthisincreasesto40%in2050.Theindirectuseofrenewableenergyviaelectricityadds15%tothecontributionthatrenewablesmaketototalindustryenergyusein2050.Table 2.6 Key deployment milestone
485、s for renewables Sector202020302050ElectricitysectorRenewablesshareingeneration29%61%88%Annualcapacityadditions(GW):TotalsolarPV134630630Totalwind114390350ofwhich:Offshorewind58070Dispatchablerenewables3112090EndusessectorsRenewableshareinTFC5%12%19%HouseholdswithrooftopsolarPV(million)25100240Share
486、ofsolarthermalandgeothermalinbuildings2%5%12%Shareofsolarthermalandgeothermalinindustryfinalconsumption0%1%2%Note:TFC=totalfinalconsumption.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 75 22.5.5 HydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsTheinitialfocusforhydrogenuseintheNZEistheconversionofexist
487、ingusesoffossilenergytolowcarbonhydrogeninwaysthatdonotimmediatelyrequirenewtransmissionanddistributioninfrastructure.Thisincludeshydrogenuseinindustryandinrefineriesandpowerplants,andtheblendingofhydrogenintonaturalgasfordistributiontoendusers.Globalhydrogenuseexpandsfromlessthan90Mtin2020tomoretha
488、n200Mtin2030;theproportionoflowcarbonhydrogenrisesfrom10%in2020to70%in2030(Figure2.19).Aroundhalfoflowcarbonhydrogenproducedgloballyin2030comesfromelectrolysisandtheremainderfromcoalandnaturalgaswithCCUS,althoughthisratiovariessubstantiallybetweenregions.Hydrogenisalsoblendedwithnaturalgasingasnetwo
489、rks:theglobalaverageblendin2030includes15%ofhydrogeninvolumetricterms,reducingCO2emissionsfromgasconsumptionbyaround6%.Figure 2.19 Global hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuel use in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.The initial focus for hydrogen is to convert existing uses to low-carbon hydrogen; hydrogen
490、and hydrogen-based fuels then expand across all end-uses Note:Includeshydrogenandhydrogencontainedinammoniaandsyntheticfuels.Thesedevelopmentsfacilitatearapidscalingupofelectrolysermanufacturingcapacityandtheparalleldevelopmentofnewhydrogentransportinfrastructure.Thisleadstorapidcostreductions for e
491、lectrolysers and for hydrogen storage, notably in salt caverns. Storedhydrogen is used to help balance both seasonal fluctuations in electricity demand andimbalancesthatmayarisebetweenthedemandforhydrogenanditssupplybyoffgridrenewablesystems.Duringthe2020s,thereisalsoalargeincreaseintheinstallationo
492、fenduseequipmentforhydrogen,includingmorethan15millionhydrogenfuelcellvehiclesontheroadby2030.20%40%60%80%100%05002020202520302035204020452050MtOtherRefineriesIronandsteelChemicalsOtherRefineriesIndustryShippingAviationRoadBuildingsElectricitygenerationBlendedingasgridLowcarbonshareMercha
493、ntOnsiteIEA. All rights reserved.76 International Energy Agency | Special Report After 2030, lowcarbon hydrogen use expands rapidly in all sectors in the NZE. In theelectricitysector,hydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsprovideanimportantlowcarbonsourceofelectricitysystemflexibility,mainlythroughretrofittin
494、gexistinggasfiredcapacitytocofirewithhydrogen,togetherwithsomeretrofittingofcoalfiredpowerplantstocofirewithammonia.Althoughthesefuelsprovideonlyaround2%ofoverallelectricitygenerationin2050,thistranslatesintoverylargevolumesofhydrogenandmakestheelectricitysectoranimportantdriverofhydrogendemand.Intr
495、ansport,hydrogenprovidesaroundonethirdoffueluseintrucksin2050intheNZE:thisiscontingentonpolicymakerstakingdecisionsthat enable the development of the necessary infrastructure by 2030. By 2050,hydrogenbasedfuelsalsoprovidemorethan60%oftotalfuelconsumptioninshipping.Ofthe530Mtofhydrogenproducedin2050,
496、around25%isproducedwithinindustrialfacilities(includingrefineries),andtheremainderismerchanthydrogen(hydrogenproducedbyonecompanytoselltoothers).Almost30%ofthelowcarbonhydrogenusedin2050takestheformofhydrogenbasedfuels,whichincludeammoniaandsyntheticliquidsandgases.Anincreasingshareofhydrogenproduct
497、ioncomesfromelectrolysers,whichaccountfor60%oftotalproductionin2050.Electrolysersarepoweredbygridelectricity,dedicatedrenewablesinregionswithexcellentrenewableresourcesandotherlowcarbonsourcessuchasnuclearpower.RollingoutelectrolysersatthepacerequiredintheNZEisakeychallengegiventhelackofmanufacturin
498、gcapacitytoday,asisensuringtheavailabilityofsufficientelectricitygenerationcapacity.GlobaltradeinhydrogendevelopsovertimeintheNZE,withlargevolumesexportedfromgasandrenewablesrichareasintheMiddleEast,CentralandSouthAmericaandAustraliatodemandcentresinAsiaandEurope.Table 2.7 Key deployment milestones
499、for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels Sector202020302050Totalproductionhydrogenbasedfuels(Mt)87212528Lowcarbonhydrogenproduction9150520shareoffossilbasedwithCCUS95%46%38%shareofelectrolysisbased5%54%62%Merchantproduction15127414Onsiteproduction7385114Totalconsumptionhydrogenbasedfuels(Mt)87212528Ele
500、ctricity052102ofwhichhydrogen04388ofwhichammonia0813Refineries36258Buildingsandagriculture01723Transport025207ofwhichhydrogen011106ofwhichammonia0556ofwhichsyntheticfuels0844Industry5193187Note:Hydrogenbasedfuelsarereportedinmilliontonnesofhydrogenrequiredtoproducethem.Chapter 2 | A global pathway t
501、o net-zero CO emissions in 2050 77 22.5.6 BioenergyGlobalprimarydemandforbioenergywasalmost65EJin2020,ofwhichabout90%wassolidbiomass.Some40%ofthesolidbiomasswasusedintraditionalcookingmethodswhichisunsustainable,inefficientandpolluting,andwaslinkedto2.5millionprematuredeathsin2020.Theuseofsolidbioma
502、ssinthismannerfallstozeroby2030intheNZE,toachievetheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoal7.Increasesinallformsofmodernbioenergymorethanoffsetthis,withproductionrisingfromlessthan40EJin2020toaround100EJin2050(Figure2.20).15Allbioenergyin2050comesfromsustainablesourcesandthefiguresintheNZE for total bioenergy
503、use are well below estimates of global sustainable bioenergypotential,thusavoidingtheriskofnegativeimpactsonbiodiversity,freshwatersystems,andfoodpricesandavailability(seesection2.7.2).Figure 2.20 Total bioenergy supply in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Modern bioenergy use rises to 100 EJ in 2050, m
504、eeting almost 20% of total energy needs. Global demand in 2050 is well below the assessed sustainable potential Notes:TES=Totalenergysupply.Conversionlossesoccurduringtheproductionofbiofuelsandbiogases.Modernsolidbioenergyuserisesbyabout3%eachyearonaverageto2050.Intheelectricitysector,wheredemandrea
505、ches35EJin2050,solidbioenergyprovidesflexiblelowemissionsgenerationtocomplementgenerationfromsolarPVandwind,anditremovesCO2fromtheatmospherewhenequippedwithCCUS.In2050,electricitygenerationusingbioenergyfuelsreaches3300TWh,or5%oftotalgeneration.Bioenergyalsoprovidesaround50%ofdistrictheatproduction.
506、Inindustry,wheredemandreaches20EJin2050,solidbioenergyprovideshightemperatureheatandcanbecofiredwithcoaltoreducetheemissionsintensityof15Modernbioenergyincludesbiogases,liquidbiofuelsandmodernsolidbiomassharvestedfromsustainablesources.Itexcludesthetraditionaluseofbiomass.5%10%15%20%25%2040608010020
507、0402050EJTraditionaluseofbiomassConversionlossesBiogasesLiquidbiofuelsBuildingsandagricultureIndustryElectricityModernbioenergyshareshareinTES(rightaxis)ModernsolidbioenergyIEA. All rights reserved.78 International Energy Agency | Special Report existinggenerationassets.Demandishighestfor
508、paperandcementproduction:in2050,bioenergymeets60%ofenergydemandinthepapersectorand30%ofenergydemandforcementproduction.Modernsolidbioenergydemandinbuildingsincreasestonearly10EJin2030,mostofitforuseinimprovedcookstovesasunsustainabletraditionalusesofbiomassdisappear.Bioenergyisalsoincreasinglyusedfo
509、rspaceandwaterheatinginadvancedeconomies.Householdandvillagebiogasdigestersinruralareasprovideasourceofrenewableenergyandcleancookingfornearly500millionhouseholdsby2030intheNZEandtotalbiogasuserisesto5.5EJin2050(fromunder2EJin2020).16Biomethanedemandgrowsto8.5EJ,thankstoblendingmandatesforgasnetwork
510、s,withaverageblendingratesincreasingtoabove80%inmanyregionsby2050.Halfoftotalbiomethaneuseisintheindustrysector,wherebiomethanereplacesnaturalgasasasourceofprocessheat.Thebuildingsandtransportsectorseachaccountforaroundafurther20%ofbiomethaneconsumptionin2050.Oneofthekeyadvantagesofbioenergyisthatit
511、canuseexistinginfrastructure.Forexample,biomethanecanuseexistingnaturalgaspipelinesandenduserequipment,whilemanydropinliquidbiofuelscanuseexistingoildistributionnetworksandbeusedinvehicleswithonlyminororlimitedalterations.BioLPGLPGderivedfromrenewablefeedstocksisidenticaltoconventionalLPGandsocanbeb
512、lendedanddistributedinthesameway.Sustainablebioenergyalsoprovidesavaluablesourceofemploymentandincomeforruralcommunities,reducesundueburdensonwomenoftentaskedwithfuelcollection,bringshealthbenefitsfromreducedairpollutionandproperwastemanagement,andreducesmethaneemissionsfrominefficientcombustionandt
513、hedecompositionofwaste.Liquidbiofuelconsumptionrisesfrom1.6mboe/din2020to6mboe/din2030intheNZE,mainly used in road transport. After 2030, liquid biofuels grow more slowly to around7mboe/din2050andtheiruseshiftstoshippingandaviationaselectricityincreasinglydominatesroadtransport.Almosthalfofliquidbio
514、fuelusein2050isforaviation,wherebiokeroseneaccountsforaround45%oftotalfueluseinaircraft.Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) plays a critical role in the NZE inoffsettingemissionsfromsectorswherethefulleliminationofemissionsisverydifficulttoachieve.In2050,around10%oftotalbioenergyisused
515、infacilitiesequippedwithCCUSandaround1.3GtCO2iscapturedusingBECCS.Around45%ofthisCO2iscapturedinbiofuelsproduction,40%intheelectricitysectorandtherestinheavyindustry,notablycementproduction.16Biogasisamixtureofmethane,CO2andsmallquantitiesofothergasesproducedbyanaerobicdigestionoforganicmatterinanox
516、ygenfreeenvironment.BiomethaneisanearpuresourceofmethaneproducedeitherbyremovingCO2andothercontaminantsfrombiogasorthroughthegasificationofsolidbiomass(IEA,2020b).Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 79 2Table 2.8 Key deployment milestones for bioenergy 202020302050Totalener
517、gysupply(EJ)6372102Shareofadvancedbiomassfeedstock27%85%97%Moderngaseousbioenergy(EJ)2.15.413.7Biomethane0.32.38.3Modernliquidbioenergy(mboe/d)1.66.07.0Advancedbiofuels0.12.76.2Modernsolidbioenergy(EJ)325474Traditionaluseofsolidbiomass(EJ)2500Millionpeopleusingtraditionalbiomassforcooking234000Notes
518、:mboe/d=millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday.Bioenergyfromforestplantingsisconsideredadvancedwhenforestsaresustainablymanaged(seesection2.7.2).2.5.7 Carboncapture,utilisationandstorageCCUScanfacilitatethetransitiontonetzeroCO2emissionsby:tacklingemissionsfromexistingassets;providingawaytoaddressemiss
519、ionsfromsomeofthemostchallengingsectors;providingacosteffectivepathwaytoscaleuplowcarbonhydrogenproductionrapidly;andallowingforCO2removalfromtheatmospherethroughBECCSandDACCS.IntheNZE,policiessupportarangeofmeasurestoestablishmarketsforCCUSinvestmentandtoencourageuseofsharedCO2transportandstoragein
520、frastructurebythoseinvolvedintheproductionofhydrogenandbiofuels,theoperationofindustrialhubs,andretrofittingofexistingcoalfiredpowerplants.CapturevolumesintheNZEincreasemarginallyoverthenextfiveyearsfromthecurrentlevelofaround40MtCO2peryear,reflectingprojectscurrentlyunderdevelopment,butthereisarapi
521、dexpansionoverthefollowing25yearsaspolicyactionbearsfruit.By2030,1.6GtCO2peryeariscapturedglobally,risingto7.6GtCO2in2050(Figure2.21).Around95%oftotalCO2capturedin2050isstoredinpermanentgeologicalstorageand5%isusedtoprovidesyntheticfuels.Estimatesofglobalgeologicalstoragecapacityareconsiderablyabove
522、whatisnecessarytostorethecumulativeCO2capturedandstoredintheNZE.Atotalof2.4GtCO2iscapturedin2050fromtheatmospherethrough bioenergy with CO2 capture and direct air capture, of which 1.9GtCO2ispermanentlystoredand0.5GtCO2isusedtoprovidesyntheticfuelsinparticularforaviation.EnergyrelatedandprocessCO2em
523、issionsinindustryaccountforalmost40%oftheCO2capturedin2050intheNZE.CCUSisparticularlyimportantforcementmanufacturing.AlthougheffortsarepursuedintheNZEtoproducecementmoreefficiently,CCUSremainscentraltoeffortstolimittheprocessemissionsthatoccurduringcementmanufacturing.Theelectricitysectoraccountsfor
524、almost20%oftheCO2capturedin2050(ofwhicharound45%is from coalfired plants, 40% from bioenergy plants and 15% from gasfired plants).CCUSequippedpowerplantscontributejust3%oftotalelectricitygenerationin2050butthevolumesofCO2capturedarecomparativelylarge.Inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,wherelarge
525、numbersofcoalpowerplantshavebeenbuiltrelativelyrecently,IEA. All rights reserved.80 International Energy Agency | Special Report retrofits play an important role where there are storage opportunities. In advancedeconomies,gasfiredplantswithCCUSplayabiggerrole,providingdispatchableelectricityatrelati
526、velylowcostinregionswithcheapnaturalgasandexistingnetworks.In2030,around50GWofcoalfiredpowerplants(4%ofthetotalatthattime)and30GWofnaturalgaspowerplants(1%ofthetotal)areequippedwithCCUS,andthisrisesto220GWofcoal(almosthalfofthetotal)and170GWofnaturalgas(7%ofthetotal)capacityin2050.Afurther30%ofCO2ca
527、pturedin2050comesfromfueltransformation,includinghydrogenandbiofuelsproductionaswellasoilrefining.Theremaining10%isfromDAC,whichisrapidlyscaledupfromseveralofpilotprojectstodayto90MtCO2peryearin2030andjustunder1GtCO2peryearby2050.Figure 2.21 Global CO2 capture by source in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreser
528、ved.By 2050, 7.6 Gt of CO2 is captured per year from a diverse range of sources. A total of 2.4 Gt CO2 is captured from bioenergy use and DAC, of which 1.9 Gt CO2 is permanently stored. Table 2.9 Key global milestones for CCUS 202020302050TotalCO2captured(MtCO2)4016707600CO2capturedfromfossilfuelsan
529、dprocesses3913255245Power3340860Industry33602620Merchanthydrogenproduction34551355Nonbiofuelsproduction30170410CO2capturedfrombioenergy12551380Power090570Industry015180Biofuelsproduction1150625Directaircapture090985Removal07063024682020202520302035204020452050GtCODirectaircaptureHydrogenproductionBi
530、ofuelsproductionOtherIndustrycombustionIndustryprocessesBioenergyGasCoalElectricitysectorIndustryFuelsupplyOtherChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 81 22.6 InvestmentTheradicaltransformationoftheglobalenergysystemrequiredtoachievenetzeroCO2emissionsin2050hingesonabigexpansi
531、onininvestmentandabigshiftinwhatcapitalisspenton.TheNZEexpandsannualinvestmentinenergyfromjustoverUSD2trilliongloballyonaverageoverthelastfiveyearstoalmostUSD5trillionby2030andtoUSD4.5trillionby2050(Figure2.22).17TotalannualcapitalinvestmentinenergyintheNZErisesfromaround2.5%ofglobalGDPinrecentyears
532、toabout4.5%in2030beforefallingbackto2.5%by2050.Figure 2.22 Annual average capital investment in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Capital investment in energy rises from 2.5% of GDP in recent years to 4.5% by 2030; the majority is spent on electricity generation, networks and electric end-user equipment
533、 Notes:Infrastructureincludeselectricitynetworks,publicEVcharging,CO2pipelinesandstoragefacilities,directaircaptureandstoragefacilities,hydrogenrefuellingstations,andimportandexportterminalsforhydrogen,fossilfuelspipelinesandterminals.Enduseefficiencyinvestmentsaretheincrementalcostofimprovingtheene
534、rgyperformanceofequipmentrelativetoaconventionaldesign.Electricitysystemsincludeelectricitygeneration,storageanddistribution,andpublicEVcharging.Electrificationinvestmentsincludespending in batteries for vehicles, heat pumps and industrial equipment for electricitybased materialproductionroutes.Thes
535、hiftinwhatcapitalisspentonleadstoannualinvestmentinelectricitygenerationrisingfromjustoverUSD500billionoverthelastfiveyearstomorethanUSD1600billionin2030,beforefallingbackasthecostofrenewableenergytechnologiescontinuestodecline.Annualnuclearinvestmentrisestoo:itmorethandoublesby2050comparedwithcurre
536、ntlevels.AnnualinvestmentinfuelsupplyhoweverdropsfromaboutUSD575billiononaverageover17InvestmentlevelspresentedinthisreportincludeabroaderaccountingofefficiencyimprovementsinbuildingsthanreportedintheIEAWorldEnergyInvestment(IEA,2020c)andsodifferfromthenumberspresentedthere.40205020302040
537、2050TrillionUSD(2019)OtherFossilfuelsCCUSHydrogenElectricitysystemElectrificationEfficiencyOtherrenewablesBioenergyBuildingsTransportIndustryInfrastructureElectricitygenerationFuelproductionBysectorBytechnologyarea201620201620TechnologyareaSectorIEA. All rights reserved.82 International Energy Agenc
538、y | Special Report thelasthalfdecadetoUSD315billionin2030andUSD110billionin2050.Theshareoffossilfuelsupplyintotalenergysectorinvestmentdropsfromits25%levelinrecentyearstojust7%by2050:thisispartlyoffsetbytheriseinspendingonlowemissionsfuelsupply,suchashydrogen,hydrogenbasedfuelsandbioenergy.Annualinv
539、estmentinthesefuelsincreasestonearlyUSD140billionin2050.InvestmentintransportincreasessignificantlyintheNZEfromUSD150peryearinrecentyearstomorethanUSD1100billionin2050:thisstemsmainlyfromtheupfrontcostofelectriccarscomparedwithconventionalvehiclesdespitethedeclineinthecostofbatteries.Bytechnologyare
540、a,electrificationisthedominantfocusintheNZE.Inadditiontomoreinvestmentinelectricitygeneration,thereisahugeincreaseininvestmentinexpansionandmodernisation of electricity networks. Annual investment rises from USD260billion onaverageinrecentyearstoaroundUSD800billionin2030andremainsaboutthatlevelto205
541、0.Suchinvestmentisneededtoensureelectricitysecurityinthefaceofrisingelectricitydemandandtheproportionofvariablegenerationinthepowermix.Thereisalsoalargeincreaseininvestmentintheelectrificationofendusesectors,whichincludesspendingonEV batteries, heat pumps and electricitybased industrial equipment. I
542、n addition toinvestmentinelectrification,thereisamoderateincreaseininvestmentinhydrogento2030asproductionfacilitiesarescaledup,andlargerincreasesafterashydrogenuseintransportexpands:annualinvestmentinhydrogen,includingproductionfacilities,refuellingstationsandenduserequipment,reachesUSD165billionin2
543、030andoverUSD470billionin2050.There is also an increase in global investment in CCUS (annual investment exceedsUSD160billionby2050andinefficiency(aroundUSD640billionannualinvestmentby2050,mostlyfordeepbuildingretrofitsandefficientappliancesintheindustryandbuildingssectors).Financingtheinvestmentneed
544、edintheNZEinvolvesredirectingexistingcapitaltowardscleanenergytechnologiesandsubstantiallyincreasingtheoveralllevelofinvestmentinenergy.Mostofthisincreaseininvestmentcomesfromprivatesources,mobilisedbypublicpoliciesthatcreateincentives,setappropriateregulatoryframeworksandreformenergytaxes.However,d
545、irectgovernmentfinancingisalsoneededtoboostthedevelopmentofnewinfrastructureprojectsandtoaccelerateinnovationintechnologiesthatareinthedemonstrationorprototypephasetoday.Projectsinmanyemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies are often relatively reliant on public financing, and policies that ensure apre
546、dictableflowofbankableprojectshaveanimportantroleinboostingprivateinvestmentintheseeconomies,asdoesthescalingupofconcessionaldebtfinancingandtheuseofdevelopmentfinance.ThereareextensivecrosscountrycooperationeffortsintheNZEtofacilitatetheinternationalflowofcapital.Thelargeincreaseincapitalinvestment
547、intheNZEispartlycompensatedforbyloweroperatingexpenditure.Operatingcostsaccounttodayforalargeshareofthetotalcostofupstreamfuelsupplyprojectsandfossilfuelgenerationprojects:thecleantechnologiesthatplayanincreasingroleintheNZEarecharacterisedbymuchloweroperatingcosts.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to ne
548、t-zero CO emissions in 2050 83 22.7 KeyuncertaintiesTheroadtonetzeroemissionsisuncertainformanyreasons:wecannotbesurehowunderlying economic conditions will change, which policies will be most effective, howpeopleandbusinesseswillrespondtomarketandpolicysignals,orhowtechnologiesandtheircostswillevolv
549、efromwithinoroutsidetheenergysector.TheNZEthereforeisjustonepossible pathway to achieve netzero emissions by 2050. Against this background, thissectionlooksatwhattheimplicationswouldbeiftheassumptionsintheNZEturnouttobeoffthemarkwithrespecttobehaviouralchange,bioenergyandCCUSforfossilfuels.Thesethre
550、eareaswereselectedbecausetheassumptionsmadeabouttheminvolveahighdegreeofuncertaintyandbecauseoftheircriticalcontributionstoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050.Figure 2.23 Additional electricity demand in 2050 and additional investment between 2021-2050 for selected areas of uncertainty IEA.Allrightsreserv
551、ed.The absence of behaviour change, restrictions on bioenergy use and failure to develop fossil fuel CCUS would each raise investment to meet net-zero emissions by USD 4-15 trillion Notes:NobehaviourassumesnoneofthebehaviouralchangesincludedintheNZE.Restrictedbioenergyassumesnoincreaseinlanduseforbi
552、oenergyproduction.LowfossilCCUSassumesnoincreaseinfossilfuelbasedCCUSapartfromprojectsalreadyapprovedorunderconstruction.Ouranalysisclearlyhighlightsthatmorepessimisticassumptionswouldaddconsiderablytoboththecostsanddifficultyofachievingnetzeroemissionsby2050(Figure2.23). Behaviouralchangesareimport
553、antinreducingenergydemandintransport,buildingsandindustry.IfthechangesinbehaviourassumedintheNZEwerenotattainable,emissionswouldbearound2.6GtCO2higherin2050.AvoidingtheseemissionsthroughtheuseofadditionallowcarbonelectricityandhydrogenwouldcostanadditionalUSD4trillion.4%8%12%16%20%3581013Nobehaviour
554、RestrictedbioenergyLowfossilCCUSThousandTWhIncreasefromNZE(rightaxis)Electricitydemand4%8%12%16%20%481216NobehaviourRestrictedbioenergyLowfossilCCUSTrillionUSD(2019)InvestmentIEA. All rights reserved.84 International Energy Agency | Special Report Bioenergyusegrowsby60%between2020and2050intheNZEandl
555、anduseforitspropagationincreasesbyaround25%.Bioenergyusein2050intheNZEiswellbelowcurrentbestestimatesofglobalsustainablebioenergypotential,butthereisahighdegreeofuncertaintyconcerningthislevel.Iflanduseforbioenergyremainsattodayslevel, bioenergy use in 2050 would be around 10% lower, and achieving n
556、etzeroemissionsin2050wouldrequireUSD4.5trillionextrainvestment. AfailuretodevelopCCUSforfossilfuelswouldsubstantiallyincreasetheriskofstrandedassetsandwouldrequirearoundUSD15trillionofadditionalinvestmentinwind,solarandelectrolysercapacitytoachievethesamelevelofemissionsreductions.Itcouldalsocritica
557、llydelayprogressonBECCSandDACCS:ifthesecannotbedeployedatscale,thenachievingnetzeroemissionsby2050wouldbeverymuchharder.2.7.1 BehaviouralchangeImpactofbehaviouralchangesinselectedsectorsintheNZEChanges in the behaviour of energy consumers play an important role in cutting CO2emissionsandenergydemand
558、growthintheNZE.Behaviouralchangesreduceglobalenergydemandby37EJin2050,a10%reductioninenergydemandatthattime,andwithoutthemcumulativeemissionsbetween2021and2050wouldbearound10%higher(Figure2.24).Behaviouralchangeplaysaparticularlyimportantroleinthetransportsector.Figure 2.24 Reduction in total final
559、consumption due to behavioural changes by fuel in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.The impact of behaviour changes and materials efficiency on final energy consumption increases over time Note:Otherincludescoal,hydrogen,geothermal,solarthermal,syntheticoilandsyntheticgas.Passengeraviation.Demandwouldgr
560、owmorethanthreefoldgloballybetween2020and2050intheabsenceoftheassumedchangesinbehaviourintheNZE.About60%ofthis12%9%6%3%4030200402050EJOilNaturalgasElectricityHeatModernbioenergyOtherChangeinfinalenergyconsumption(rightaxis)Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 85 2
561、growth would occur in emerging market and developing economies. In the NZE, threechangesleadtoa50%reductioninemissionsfromaviationin2050,whilereducingthenumberofflightsbyonly12%(Figure2.25). Keepingairtravelforbusinesspurposesat2019levels.Althoughbusinesstripsfelltoalmostzeroin2020,theyaccountedforj
562、ustoveronequarterofairtravelbeforethepandemic.Thisavoidsaround110MtCO2in2050intheNZE. Keepinglonghaulflights(morethansixhours)forleisurepurposesat2019levels.Emissionsfromanaveragelonghaulflightare35timesgreaterthanfromaregionalflight(lessthanonehour).Thisaffectslessthan2%offlightsbutavoids70MtCO2in2
563、050. Ashifttohighspeedrail.Theopportunitiesforshiftingregionalflightstohighspeedrailvarybyregion.Globally,weestimatethataround15%ofregionalflightsin2019couldhavebeenshiftedgivenexistingrailinfrastructure;futurehighspeedraillinesensurethatby2050around17%couldbeshifted(IEA,2019).18Thiswouldreduceemiss
564、ionsbyaround45MtCO2in2050(highspeedtrainsgeneratenoemissionsin2050intheNZE).Figure 2.25 Global CO2 emissions from aviation and impact of behavioural changes in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Demand for passenger aviation is set to grow significantly by 2050, but behavioural changes reduce emissions b
565、y 50% in 2050 despite reducing flights by only 12% Notes:Longhaul=morethan6hourflight;mediumhaul=16hourflight;regional=lessthan1hour.Businessflights=tripsforworkpurposes;leisureflights=tripsforleisurepurposes.Averagespeedsvarybyflightdistanceandrangefrom680750km/h.18Thisassumesthat:newrailroutesavoi
566、dwaterbodiesandtunnellingthroughelevatedterrain;traveltimesare similar to aviation; and centres of demand are sufficiently large to ensure that highspeed rail iseconomicallyviable.204060801000.20.40.60.81.0201920202050GtCO2LonghaulMediumhaulRegional#REF!CaplonghaulCapbusinessShifttohighspeedMillionf
567、lightsEmissionsreductionsEmissions50%(rightaxis)leisureflightsflightsrailBehaviourreductionsIEA. All rights reserved.86 International Energy Agency | Special Report Caruse.AvarietyofnewmeasuresthataimtoreducetheuseofcarsincitiesandoverallcarownershiplevelsareassumedintheNZE.Theyleadtorapidgrowthinth
568、eridesharemarketinurbanareas,aswellasphasingoutpollutingcarsinlargecitiesandreplacingthemwithcycling,walkingandpublictransport.ThetimingofthesechangesintheNZEdependsoncitieshavingthenecessaryinfrastructureandpublicsupporttoensureashiftawayfromprivatecaruse.Between2050%ofcartripsareshiftedtobuses,dep
569、endingonthecityinquestion, with the remainder replaced by cycling, walking and public transport. Thesechanges reduce emissions from cars in cities by more than 320MtCO2 in total in themid2030s(Figure2.26).Theirimpactonemissionsfadesovertimeascarsareincreasinglyelectrified,buttheystillhaveasignifican
570、timpactoncurbingenergyusein2050.Figure 2.26 Global CO2 emissions savings and car ownership per household due to behavioural change in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Policies discouraging car use in cities lead to rapid reductions in CO2 emissions and lower car ownership levels, though the impact dimi
571、nishes over time as cars are electrified Thegradualmoveawayfromcarsincitiesalsohasanimpactoncarownershiplevels.Surveydataindicatesthatcarshareschemesandtheprovisionofpublictransportreducescarownershipbyupto35%,withthebiggestchangestakingplaceinmultiplecarhouseholds(Jochemetal.,2020;Martin,Shaheenand
572、Lidiker,2010).Withoutbehaviouralchanges,35%ofhouseholdswouldhaveacarin2050;withbehaviouralchangesthissharefallstoaround20%intheNZE,andtwocarhouseholdsfallfrom13%ofthetotaltolessthan5%.ThechangingpatternsofmobilityincitiesinNZEhaveimplicationsformaterialsdemand.Reduced car ownership leads to a small
573、drop in steel demand in 2050, saving around40MtCO2insteelproduction.Increasedcyclingwouldneedtobesupportedbybuildinganestimated 80000km of new cycle lanes globally over the period to 2050, generatingincreaseddemandforcementandbitumen.Thiseffectissmall,however:theextraemissionsassociatedwiththiswould
574、belessthan5%oftheemissionsavoidedbylowercaruse.5005020203020402050RidesharingCyclingandwalkingBusesMtCO2CO2emissionssavings20%40%60%80%100%0cars1car2cars3+carsBeforebehaviourchangeAfterbehaviourchangeCarsperhouseholdin2050Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 87 2H
575、owtobringaboutthebehaviouralchangesinNZERegulationsandmandatescouldenableroughly70%oftheemissionssavedbybehaviouralchangesintheNZE.Examplesinclude: Upperspeedlimits,whicharereducedovertimeintheNZEfromtheircurrentlevelsto100km/h,cuttingemissionsfromroadvehiclesby3%in2050. Appliancestandards,whichmaxi
576、miseenergyefficiencyinthebuildingssector. Regulationscoveringheatingtemperaturesinofficesanddefaultcoolingtemperaturesforairconditioningunits,whichreduceexcessivethermaldemand. Changesinitiallytackledbymarketbasedmechanisms,e.g.swappingregionalflightsforhighspeedrail,19whichcanbeaddressedbyregulatio
577、novertimetomirrorchangesinpublicsentimentandconsumernorms.Marketbasedinstrumentsuseamixoffinancialincentivesanddisincentivestoinfluencedecisionmaking.TheycouldenablearoundtwothirdsoftheemissionssavedbybehaviouralchangesintheNZE.Examplesinclude: Congestionpricingandtargetedinterventionsdifferentiated
578、byvehicletype,20suchaschargesaimedatthemostpollutingvehicles,orpreferentialparkingforcleancars. Transportdemandmeasuresthatreducetravel,suchasfueltaxesanddistancebasedvehicleinsuranceandregistrationfees(Byars,WeiandHandy,2017). Informationmeasuresthathelpconsumerstodrivechange,suchasmandatorylabelli
579、ngofembodiedorlifecycleemissionsinmanufacturingandarequirementforcompaniestodisclosetheircarbonemissions.Informationandawarenessmeasurescouldenablearound30%oftheemissionssavedbybehaviouralchangesintheNZE.Examplesinclude: Personalisedandrealtimetravelplanninginformation,whichfacilitatesaswitchtowalki
580、ng,cyclingandpublictransport. Productlabellingandpublicawarenesscampaignsincombination,whichhelpmakerecyclingwidespreadandhabitual. Comparisons with consumption patterns of similar households, which can reducewastefulenergyusebyupto20%(Aydin,BrounenandKok,2018).NotallthebehaviouralchangesintheNZEwou
581、ldbeequallyeasytoachieveeverywhere,andpolicyinterventionswouldneedtodrawoninsightsfrombehaviouralscienceandtakeintoaccountexistingbehaviouralnormsandculturalpreferences.Somebehaviouralchangesmaybemoresociallyacceptablethanothers.CitizenassembliesintheUnitedKingdomand19Alawbanningdomesticflightswhere
582、arailalternativeofundertwoandahalfhoursexistshasbeenproposedinFrance(AssembleeNationale,2021).20Congestionchargingiscurrentlyusedin11majorcitiesandhasbeenshowntoreducetrafficvolumesbyupto27%.Lowemissionszoneschargevehiclestoenterurbanzonesbasedvehicletypeandcurrentlyexistin15countries(TFL,2021;Tools
583、ofChange,2014;EuropeanCommission,2021).IEA. All rights reserved.88 International Energy Agency | Special Report Franceindicatealargelevelofsupportfortaxesonfrequentandlongdistanceflyersandforbanningpollutingvehiclesfromcitycentres;conversely,measuresthatlimitcarownershiporreducespeedlimitshavegained
584、lessacceptance(ConventionCitoyennepourleClimat,2021;ClimateAssemblyUK,2020).Behaviouralchangeswhichreduceenergyuseinhomesmaybeparticularlywellsupported:arecentsurveyshowed85%supportforlinedryingclothesandswitchingoffappliances,andonly20%ofpeoplefeltthatreducingtemperaturesettingsinhomeswasundesirabl
585、e(NewgateResearchandCambridgeZero,2021).Table 2.10 Key behavioural changes in the NZE PolicyoptionsRelatedpolicygoalsCosteffectivenessTimelinessSocialacceptabilityCO2emissionsimpactLowcarcities PhaseoutICEcarsfromlargecities. Rideshareallurbancartrips. Lowemissionszones. Accessrestrictions. Parkingr
586、estrictions. Registrationcaps. Parkingpricing. Congestioncharges. Investmentincyclinglanesandpublictransportation. Airpollutionmitigation. Publichealth. Reducedcongestion. Urbanspace. Beautificationandliveability.Fuelefficientdriving Reducemotorwayspeedstolessthan100km/h. Ecodriving. Raiseairconditi
587、oningtemperatureincarsby3C. Speedlimits. Realtimefuelefficiencydisplays. Awarenesscampaigns. Roadsafety. Reducednoisepollution.Reduceregionalflights Replaceallflights1hwherehighspeedrailisafeasiblealternative. Highspeedrailinvestment. Subsidiesforhighspeedrailtravel. Pricepremiums. Lowerairpollution
588、. Lowernoisepollution.Reduceinternationalflights Keepairtravelforbusinesspurposesat2019levels. Keeplonghaulflightsforleisureat2019levels. Awarenesscampaigns. Pricepremiums. Corporatetargets. Frequentflyerlevies. Lowerairpollution. Lowernoisepollution.Spaceheating Targetaveragesetpointtemperaturesof1
589、920C. Awarenesscampaigns. Consumptionfeedback. Corporatetargets. Publichealth. Energyaffordability.Spacecooling Targetaveragesetpointtemperaturesof2425C. Awarenesscampaigns. Consumptionfeedback. Corporatetargets. Publichealth. Energyaffordability.=poormatch=neutralmatch=goodmatchNotes:Largecities=ci
590、tiesover1millioninhabitants.ICE=internalcombustionengine.CO2emissionsimpact=cumulativereductions20202050.Ecodriving=earlyupshiftingaswellasavoidingsuddenacceleration,stopsoridling.Thenumberofjobsthatcanbedoneathomevariesconsiderablybyregion,globally,anaverageof20%ofjobscanbedoneathome.Chapter 2 | A
591、global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 89 2ThebehaviouralchangesintheNZEwouldbringwiderbenefitsintermsofairpollutionincities,roadsafety,noisepollution,congestionandhealth.Attitudestopolicyinterventionscanchangequicklywhencobenefitsbecomeapparent.Forexample,supportforcongestioncharginginStoc
592、kholmjumpedfromlessthan40%whentheschemewasintroducedtoaround70%threeyearslater;asimilartrendwasseeninSingapore,Londonandothercities,allofwhichexperienceddeclinesinairpollutionaftertheintroductionofcharging(ToolsofChange,2014;DEFRA,2012).Arenetzeroemissionsby2050stillpossiblewithoutbehaviouralchange?
593、IfthebehaviouralchangesdescribedintheNZEwerenottomaterialise,finalenergyusewouldbe27EJandemissions1.7GtCO2higherin2030,andtheywouldbe37EJand2.6GtCO2higherin2050.Thiswouldfurtherincreasethealreadyunprecedentedrampupneededinlowcarbontechnologies.TheshareofEVsintheglobalcarfleetwouldneedtoincreasefroma
594、round20%in2030to45%toensurethesamelevelofemissionsreductions(Figure2.27).Achievingthesamereductioninemissionsinhomeswouldrequireelectricheatpumpssalestoreach680millionin2030(comparedwith440millionintheNZE).Withoutgainsinmaterialsefficiency,theshareoflowcarbonprimarysteelproductionwouldneedtobemoreth
595、antwiceashighin2030asintheNZE.In2050,theuseofsustainableaviationfuelswouldalsoneedtoriseto7mboe/d(comparedwith5mboe/dintheNZE).Emissionsfromcementandsteelproductionwouldbe1.7GtCO2higherin2050thanintheNZE,andsorequireincreaseddeploymentofCCUSinindustry,deploymentofelectricarcfurnacesandmoreuseoflowca
596、rbonhydrogen.Figure 2.27 Share of low-carbon technologies and fuels with and without behavioural change in 2030 in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.In the absence of behavioural changes, the share of low-emissions technologies in end-uses in 2030 would need to be much larger to achieve the same emissio
597、ns as in the NZE Notes:Electriccars=shareofelectriccarsontheroadglobally.Sustainableaviationfuels=biojetkeroseneandsyntheticjetkerosene.Lowcarbonsteelreferstoprimarysteelproduction.10%20%30%40%50%ElectriccarsHeatpumpsinresidentialbuildingsLowcarbonsteelSustainableaviationfuelsNZEAdditionalwithoutbeh
598、aviourchanges2020IEA. All rights reserved.90 International Energy Agency | Special Report 2.7.2 BioenergyandlandusechangeModernformsofbioenergyplayakeyroleinachievingnetzeroemissionsintheNZE.Bioenergyisaversatilerenewableenergysourcethatcanbeusedinallsectors,anditcanoften make use of existing transm
599、ission and distribution infrastructure and enduserequipment.Butthereareconstraintsonexpandingthesupplyofbioenergy:withfinitepotential for bioenergy production from waste streams, there are possible tradeoffsbetweenexpandingbioenergyproduction,achievingsustainabledevelopmentgoalsandavoidingconflictsw
600、ithotherlanduses,notablyfoodproduction.ThelevelofbioenergyuseintheNZEtakesaccountoftheseconstraints:bioenergydemandin 2050 is around 100EJ. The global sustainable bioenergy potential in 2050 has beenassessedtobeatleast100EJ(Creutzig,2015)andrecentassessmentsestimateapotentialbetween 150170EJ when in
601、tegrating relevant UN Sustainable Development Goals(Frank,2021; IPCC, 2019; IPCC, 2014; Wu, 2019). However, there is a high degree ofuncertainty over the precise levels of this potential. Using modelling developed incooperation with IIASA, here we examine the implications for achieving netzero CO2em
602、issionsby2050iftheavailablelevelsofsustainablebioenergyweretobelower.Wealsoexamine what would need to be done to achieve large reductions in emissions fromagriculture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU).EnsuringasustainablesupplyofbioenergyMost liquid biofuels produced today come from dedicated bioenergy
603、 crops such assugarcane,cornoroilcrops,oftenknownasconventionalbiofuels.Theexpandeduseoffeedstocksandarablelandtoproducethesebiofuelscanconflictwithfoodproduction.IntheNZE,thereisashifttowardstheuseofsustainable,certifiedagriculturalproductsandwood. Biofuel production processes in the NZE use advanc
604、ed conversion technologiescoupledwithCCUSwherepossible(seesection3.3.2).Theemphasisisalsoonadvancedbioenergyfeedstocks,includingwastestreamsfromotherprocesses,shortrotationwoodycrops and feedstocks that do not require the use of arable land. Advanced bioenergyaccounts for the vast majority of bioene
605、rgy supply in the NZE by 2050. The use ofconventionalenergycropsforbiofuelproductiongrowsfromaround9EJin2020toaround11EJin2030,butthenfallsby70%to3EJin2050(includingfeedstocksconsumedinthebiofuelproductionprocesses).Advancedbioenergyfeedstocksthatdonotrequirelandincludeorganicwastestreamsfromagricul
606、tureandindustry,andwoodyresiduesfromforestharvestingandwoodprocessing.InvestmentincomprehensivewastecollectionandsortingintheNZEunlocksaround45EJofbioenergysupplyfromvariousorganicwastestreamswhichisprimarilyusedtoproducebiogasesandadvancedbiofuels(Figure2.28).Woodyresiduesfromwoodprocessingandfores
607、tharvestingprovideafurther20EJofbioenergyin2050intheNZElessthanhalfofcurrentbestestimatesofthetotalsustainablepotential.BioenergycanalsobeproducedChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 91 2fromdedicatedshortrotationwoodycrops(25EJofbioenergysupplyin2050).21Sustainablymanagedfo
608、restryfuelwoodorplantations22andtreeplantingsintegratedwithagriculturalproductionviaagroforestrysystemsthatdonotconflictwithfoodproductionorbiodiversityprovidejustover10EJofbioenergyin2050.Figure 2.28 Global bioenergy supply by source in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Bioenergy use increases by aroun
609、d 60% between 2020 and 2050, while shifting away from conventional feedstocks and the traditional use of biomass Note:Organicwastestreamsincludeagriculturalresidues,foodprocessing,industrialandmunicipalorganicwastestreams;theydonotrequirelandarea.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonIIASAdata.Thetotallandareade
610、dicatedtobioenergyproductionintheNZEincreasesfrom330millionhectares(Mha)in2020to410Mhain2050.In2050,around270Mhaisforest,representingaroundonequarterofthetotalareaofglobalmanagedforests,andaround5%oftotalforestarea.Thereis130Mhaoflandusedforshortrotationadvancedbioenergycropsin2050and10Mhaforconvent
611、ionalbioenergycrops.ThereisnooverallincreaseincroplanduseforbioenergyproductionintheNZEfromtodayslevelandnobioenergycropsaredevelopedonforestedlandintheNZE.23Aswellasallowingamuchgreaterlevelofbioenergycropproductiononmarginallands,woodyenergycropscanproducetwiceasmuchbioenergyperhectareasconvention
612、albioenergycrops.21Woodyshortrotationcoppicecropsgrownoncropland,pasturelandormarginallandsnotsuitedtofoodcrops.22Sustainableforestrymanagementensuresthatthecarbonstockandcarbonabsorptioncapabilityoftheforestisexpandedorremainsunchanged.23Ofthe140Mhalandusedforbioenergycropsin2050,70Mhaaremarginalla
613、ndsorlandcurrentlyusedforlivestockgrazingand70Mhaarecropland.Thereisa60Mhaincreaseincroplanduseforwoodycropsto2050intheNZEbutthisisoffsetbyareductionincroplanduseforproducingconventionalbiofuelfeedstocks.20406080203020402050EJForestryplantingsShortrotationwoodycropsForestandwoodresiduesOr
614、ganicwastestreamsTraditionaluseofbiomassConventionalbioenergycropsIEA. All rights reserved.92 International Energy Agency | Special Report TotallanduseforbioenergyintheNZEiswellbelowestimatedrangesofpotentiallandavailabilitythattakefullaccountofsustainabilityconstraints,includingtheneedtoprotectbiod
615、iversityhotspotsandtomeettheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoal15onbiodiversityandlanduse.Thecertificationofbioenergyproductsandstrictcontrolofwhatlandcanbeconvertedtoexpandforestryplantationsandwoodyenergycropsneverthelessiscriticaltoavoidlanduseconflictissues.Certificationisalsocriticaltoensuretheintegri
616、tyofCO2offsets(seeChapter1),theuseofwhichshouldbecarefullymanagedandrestrictedtosectorsthatlackalternativemitigationoptions.Arelatedlanduseissueishowtotackleemissionsthatarisefromoutsidetheenergysector(Box2.3).Box 2.3 Balancing emissions from land use, agriculture and forestry Tolimittheglobaltemper
617、aturerise,allsourcesofGHGemissionsneedtodeclinetoclosetozeroortobeoffsetwithCDR.TheenergysectoraccountedforaroundthreequartersoftotalGHGemissionsinrecentyears.ThelargestsourceofGHGemissionsotherthantheenergysectorisagriculture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU),whichproducedbetween 1012GtCO2eq net GHG e
618、missions in recent years.24 CO2 emissions fromAFOLUwerearound56GtCO2,andnitrousoxideandmethaneemissionswerearound56GtCO2eq(IPCC,2019).Options to reduce emissions from AFOLU and enhance removals include: haltingdeforestation;improvingforestmanagementpractices;institutingfarmingpracticesthatincreaseso
619、ilcarbonlevels;andafforestation.Anumberofcompanieshaverecentlyexpressedinterestinthesesortsofnaturebasedsolutionstooffsetemissionsfromtheiroperations(seeChapter1).Forafforestation,convertingaround170Mha(roughlyhalfthesizeofIndia)toforestswouldsequesteraround1GtCO2annuallyby2050.Achievingnetzeroenerg
620、yrelatedandindustrialprocessCO2emissionsby2050intheNZEdoesnotrelyonanyoffsetsfromoutsidetheenergysector.ButcommensurateactiononAFOLUwouldhelplimitclimatechange.TheenergysectortransformationintheNZEwouldreduceCO2emissionsfromAFLOUin2050byaround150MtCO2giventheswitchawayfromconventionalcropsandtheincr
621、easeinshortrotationadvancedbioenergycropproductiononmarginallandsandpastureland.ToreduceemissionsfromAFOLUfurtherwouldrequirereducingdeforestationbytwothirdsby2050,institutingimprovedforestmanagementpracticesandplantingaround250Mhaofnewforests.ThecombinedimpactofthesechangeswouldreduceCO2emissionsfr
622、omAFOLUtozeroby2040 and absorb 1.3GtCO2 annually by 2050. In this case, cumulative AFOLU CO2emissionsbetween2020and2050wouldbearound40GtCO2.NonCO2emissionsfromlivestock,aswellasotheragriculturalemissions,maybemoredifficulttomitigategiventhelinkbetweenlivestockproductionandnitrousoxideandmethane emis
623、sions. Changes to farming practices and technology improvements,24AFOLUemissionsareemissionsfromanthropogenicactivitiesanddonotincludeCO2emissionsremovalfromtheatmospherebynaturallandsinks.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 93 2includingchangestoanimalfeed,couldhelptoreduc
624、etheseemissions,butitmaybenecessarytouseafforestationtooffsettheseemissionsentirely.Analternativecouldbetoreducetheseemissionsbyreducingthedemandforlivestockproducts.Forexample,weestimatethatreducingmeatconsumptioninhouseholdswiththehighestlevelsofpercapitaconsumptiontodaytotheglobalaveragelevelwoul
625、dreduceGHGemissionsbymorethan1GtCO2eqin2050.Lowerdemandforlivestockproductswouldreducethepastureneededgloballyforlivestockbycloseto200Mhaandthecroplandthatisusedtogrowfeedforlivestockbyafurther80Mha.Arenetzeroemissionsby2050possiblewithoutexpandinglanduseforbioenergy?Estimatesoftheglobalsustainableb
626、ioenergypotentialaresubjecttoahighdegreeofuncertainty,inparticularovertheextenttowhichnewlandareacould sustainablybeconverted to bioenergy production. As a result, the NZE takes a cautious approach tobioenergyuse,withconsumptionin2050(100EJ)wellbelowthelatestestimatesthatintegraterelevantSDGs,whichs
627、uggestapotentialbetween150170EJ.Butitispossiblethatthelandavailabletoprovidesustainablebioenergyisevenmorelimited.Hereweexploretheimplicationsforemissionsofrestrictinglandusefordedicatedbioenergycropsandforestryplantationstoaround330Mha,whichiswhatisusedtoday.Figure 2.29 Impact on electricity demand
628、 and ability to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 without expanded bioenergy land use IEA.Allrightsreserved.Achieving net-zero emissions without expanding bioenergy land use would require a further 3 200 TWh from solar PV and wind, increasing capacity in the NZE by nearly 10% Limitinglanduseto330Mh
629、awouldreduceavailablebioenergysupplyin2050bymorethan10EJ.Thiswouldmostlytaketheformofareductionintheavailabilityofshortrotationwoodyenergycrops,whicharemainlyusedintheNZEinplaceoffossilfuelstoprovidehightemperatureheatforindustrialprocessesandforelectricitygeneration.Withoutbioenergy,306090120EJNZEW
630、ithoutexpandingbioenergylanduseBioenergyuseElectricitydemandSolarPVandwind20406080ThousandTWh8162432ThousandGWIEA. All rights reserved.94 International Energy Agency | Special Report itislikelythathydrogenandsyntheticmethanewouldbeusedinstead,andtheirproductionwouldrequirearound70Mtofhydrogenin2050(
631、15%morethanintheNZE).Ifthisweretobeproducedthroughtheuseofelectrolysisitwouldrequirearound750GWofelectrolysercapacityandincreaseelectricitydemandin2050byaround3200TWh(Figure2.29).Theadditionalelectricitythatwouldbeneededcouldbeproducedusingrenewables,whichwouldrequireanadditional1700GWofwindandsolar
632、PVcapacityandalmost350GWofadditionalbatterycapacityin2050.Annualcapacityadditionsduringthe2030swouldneedtobe160GWhigherthanintheNZE.Theadditionalwind,solar,batteryandelectrolysercapacity,togetherwiththeelectricitynetworksandstorageneededtosupportthishigherlevelofdeploymentwouldcostmorethanUSD5trilli
633、onby2050.ThisisUSD4.5trillionmorethanwouldbeneedediftheuseofbioenergyweretobeexpandedasenvisagedintheNZE,andwouldincreasethetotalinvestmentneededintheNZEby3%.Whileitmightthereforebe possible still to achieve netzero emissions in 2050 without expanding land use forbioenergy,thiswouldmaketheenergytran
634、sitionsignificantlymoreexpensive.2.7.3 CCUSappliedtoemissionsfromfossilfuelsAtotalof7.6GtCO2iscapturedin2050intheNZE,almost50%ofwhichisfromfossilfuelcombustion,20%isfromindustrialprocesses,andaround30%isfrombioenergyusewithCO2captureandDAC(Figure2.30).TheuseofCCUSwithfossilfuelsprovidesalmost70%ofth
635、etotalgrowthinCCUSto2030intheNZE.YettheprospectsfortherapidscalingupofCCUSareveryuncertainforeconomic,politicalandtechnicalreasons.Herewelookattheimplicationsforreachingnetzeroemissionsin2050iffossilfuelCCUSdoesnotexpandbeyondexistingandplannedprojects.Figure 2.30 CCUS by sector and emissions source
636、 in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Fossil fuel emissions account for almost 70% of total CO2 capture in 2030 and almost 50% in 2050 Note:DAC=directaircapture.20402050202020302040205020202030204020502020203020402050GtCO2AtmosphereIndustrialprocessesBioenergyFossilfuelsElectricityIndustryFue
637、lsupplyDACCO2sourceChapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 95 2Arenetzeroemissionsby2050possiblewithoutfossilfuelbasedCCUS?FossilfuelbasedCCUSapplicationscomprisemostoftheCCUSprojectsaddedto2030intheNZE.TheseprojectshelptoreducerisksforothernonfossilfuelCCUSapplicationsthataree
638、ssentialtoreachnetzero.InviewofthechallengesthatfossilfuelbasedCCUSprojectsface,wehaveconstructedaLowCCUSCase(LCC)inwhichnonewfossilfuelCCUSprojectsaredevelopedbeyondthosealreadyunderconstructionorapprovedfordevelopment.IntheLCC,CO2emissionscapturedfromfossilfuelsareonlyaround150Mtin2050,comparedwit
639、h3600Mtin2050intheNZE.Inindustry,thelackofnewfossilfuelCCUSprojectsleadsintheLCCto1.2GtofadditionalCO2emissionscomparedwiththeNZEin2050.Itwouldbenecessarytousealternativetechnologiestoeliminatetheseemissionsinordertoachievenetzeroby2050.Anumberoftechnologiesthatareattheprototypestageofdevelopmentwou
640、ldbeneeded,suchaselectriccementkilnsorelectricsteamcrackersforhighvaluechemicalsproduction(seeBox2.4).Assumingthatthesetechnologiescouldbedemonstratedanddeployedatscale,this would increase electricity demand by around 2400TWh and hydrogen demand inindustrybyaround45Mtin2050.Itwouldalsobenecessarytor
641、eplacethe145MtofhydrogenthatisproducedintheNZEfromfossilfuelsequippedwithCCUS.Provisionofthis190Mtofhydrogenthroughelectrolysiswouldrequireanadditional2000GWcapacityofelectrolysersin2050(almost60%morethanintheNZE)andanadditional9000TWhofelectricity(Figure2.31).Figure 2.31 Impacts of achieving net-ze
642、ro emissions by 2050 without expanded fossil fuel-based CCUS IEA.Allrightsreserved.Failure to deploy fossil fuel-based CCUS would significantly increase electricity demand and require much more solar, wind and electrolyser capacity Note:LCC=LowCCUSCasewhereCCUSappliedtofossilfuelsisrestrictedtoproje
643、ctsunderconstructionorapprovedfordevelopmenttoday.204060NZELCCNZELCCThousandTWhElectricitydemandHydrogenIndustryOther20302050Electricityfor:102030NZE LCC NZE LCCNZE LCC NZE LCCThousandGWCapacitySolarPVWindElectrolysersBatteries2030205020302050Capacity:IEA. All rights reserved.96 International Energy
644、 Agency | Special Report Box 2.4 Technology innovation in the NZE Innovationiskeytodevelopingnewcleanenergytechnologiesandadvancingexistingones.Theimportanceofinnovationincreasesaswegetcloserto2050becauseexistingtechnologieswillnotbeabletogetusallthewayalongthepathtonetzeroemissions.Almost 50% of th
645、e emissions reductions needed in 2050 in the NZE depend ontechnologiesthatareattheprototypeordemonstrationstage,i.e.arenotyetavailableonthemarket(seeChapter4).Afteranewideamakesitswayfromthedrawingboardtothelaboratoryandoutintotheworld,therearefourkeystagesinthecleanenergyinnovationpipeline(IEA,2020
646、d).Butthepathwaytomaturitycanbelongandsuccessisnotguaranteed. Prototype.Aconceptisdevelopedintoadesignandthenintoaprototypeforanewdevice,e.g.afurnacethatproducessteelwithpurehydrogeninsteadofcoal. Demonstration.Thefirstexamplesofanewtechnologyareintroducedatthesizeofafullscalecommercialunit,e.g.asys
647、temthatcapturesCO2emissionsfromcementplants. Marketuptake.Thetechnologyisbeingdeployedinanumberofmarkets.However,it either has a cost and performance gap with established technologies (e.g.electrolysersforhydrogenproduction)oritiscompetitivebuttherearestillbarriers,suchasintegrationwithexistinginfra
648、structureorconsumerpreferences,toreachingitsfullmarketpotential(e.g.heatpumps).Policyattentionisneededinbothcasestostimulatewiderdiffusiontoreducecostsandtoovercomeexistingbarriers,withmoreofthecostsandrisksbeingbornegraduallybytheprivatesector. Maturity. The technology has reached market stability,
649、 and new purchases orinstallations are constant or even declining in some environments as newertechnologiesstarttocompetewiththestockofexistingassets,e.g.hydropowerturbines.InnovationiscriticalintheNZEtobringnewtechnologiestomarketandtoimproveemergingtechnologies,including forelectrification,CCUS,hy
650、drogenandsustainablebioenergy.ThedegreeofrelianceoninnovationintheNZEvariesacrosssectorsandalongthevariousstepsofthevaluechainsinvolved(Figure2.32). Electrification.Almost30%ofthe170GtCO2cumulativeemissionsreductionsfromtheuseoflowemissionselectricityintheNZEcomesfromtechnologiesthatarecurrentlyatpr
651、ototypeordemonstrationstage,suchaselectricitybasedprimarysteelproductionorelectrictrucks. Hydrogen.Notallstepsofthelowcarbonhydrogenvaluechainareavailableonthemarkettoday.Themajorityofdemandtechnologies,suchashydrogenbasedsteelproduction,areonlyatthedemonstrationorprototypestage.Thesedelivermorethan
652、75%ofthecumulativeemissionsreductionsintheNZErelatedtohydrogen.Chapter 2 | A global pathway to net-zero CO emissions in 2050 97 2 CCUS.Around55%ofthecumulativeemissionsreductionsthatcomefromCCUSintheNZEarefromtechnologiesthatareatthedemonstrationorprototypestagetoday.WhileCO2capturehasbeeninuseforde
653、cadesincertainindustrialandfueltransformationprocesses,suchasammoniaproductionandnaturalgasprocessing,it is still being demonstrated at a large scale in many of the other possibleapplications. Bioenergy.Around45%ofthecumulativeemissionsreductionsintheNZErelatedtosustainablebioenergycomefromtechnolog
654、iesthatareatthedemonstrationorprototypestagetoday,mainlyfortheproductionofbiofuels.Figure 2.32 Cumulative CO2 emissions reductions for selected technologies by maturity category in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.CCUS, hydrogen and bioenergy technologies are less mature than electrification. Most tech
655、nologies for heavy industry and trucks are at early stages of development. Notes:BioFT=BiomassgasificationwithFischerTropschsynthesis.Maturitylevelsarethetechnologydesignatthemostadvancedstage.20406080100120BioFTBioFTwithCCUSBiomassCCUSpowerSteelCarsShippingTrucksDACSSteelFossilCCUSpowerCementElectr
656、ifiedprimarysteelHeatpumpsElectrictrucksElectriccarsWindSolarPVGtCOMarketuptakeDemonstrationPrototypeCCUSHydrogenbased fuelsElectricityBioenergyIEA. All rights reserved.98 International Energy Agency | Special Report Intheelectricitysector,itwouldbenecessarytoproduceanadditional11300TWhofelectricity
657、forindustryandfueltransformationandtoreplacevirtuallyalloftheelectricitygeneratedfromfossilfuelpoweredplantsequippedwithCCUSin2050intheNZE.Usingrenewables,thiswouldrequireanadditional7000GWofwindandsolarPVcapacityin2050.Thisisaround30%morethanintheNZE,andwouldmeanthatannualcapacityadditionsofsolarPV
658、andwindduringthe2030swouldneedtoreach1300GW(300GWmorethanintheNZE).ToaccommodatethisadditionallevelofvariablerenewablesandtoprovidetheflexibilitythatisavailablefromfossilfuelCCUSequippedplantsintheNZE,around660GWmorebatterycapacitywouldbeneededin2050(20%morethanintheNZEinin2050),togetherwithaddition
659、al110GWofotherdispatchablecapacity.ReducingtherateofaddingCCUSatexistingcoalandgasfiredgenerationplantsintheLCCwouldalsoraisetheriskofstrandedassets.WeestimatethatuptoUSD90billionofexistingcoalandgasfiredcapacitycouldbestrandedin2030anduptoUSD400billionby2050.InvestmentinfossilfuelbasedCCUSintheNZEt
660、o2050isaroundUSD650billion,whichwouldbeavoidedintheLCC.ButadditionalinvestmentisrequiredintheLCCforextrawind,solar and electrolyser capacity, for electricitybased routes in heavy industry, and forexpandedelectricitynetworksandstoragetosupportthishigherlevelofdeployment.Asaresult,theadditionalcumulat
661、iveinvestmenttoreachnetzeroemissionsin2050intheLCCisUSD15trillionhigherthanintheNZE.Failure to develop CCUS for fossil fuels would also be likely to delay or prevent thedevelopmentofotherCCUSapplications.WithoutfossilfuelbasedCCUS,thenumberofusersandthevolumesoftheCO2transportandstorageinfrastructur
662、edeployedaroundindustrialclusterswouldbereduced.Feweractorsandmorelimitedpoolsofcapitalwouldbeavailabletoincurthehighupfrontcostsofinfrastructure,aswellasotherrisksassociatedwiththeinitialrolloutofCCUSinfrastructureclusters.Inaddition,therewouldbefewerspillover learning and costreduction benefits fr
663、om developing fossil fuelbased CCUS,makingthesuccessfuldemonstrationandscaleupofmorenascentCCUStechnologiesmuchlesslikely.AdelayinthedevelopmentofotherCCUStechnologieswouldhaveamajorimpactontheprospectofgettingtonetzeroemissionsin2050.Forexample,CCUSistheonlyscalablelowemissionsoptiontoremoveCO2from
664、theatmosphereandtoalmosteliminateemissionsfromcementproduction.Ifprogressinthesetechnologiesweredelayedandcouldnotbedeployedatscale,thenachievingnetzeroemissionsby2050wouldbevastlymoredifficult.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 99 Chapter3Sectoral pathways to net-zero emiss
665、ions by 2050 FossilfuelusefallsdrasticallyintheNetZeroEmissionsScenario(NZE)by2050,andnonewoilandnaturalgasfieldsarerequiredbeyondthosethathavealreadybeenapprovedfordevelopment.Nonewcoalminesormineextensionsarerequired.Lowemissionsfuelsbiogases,hydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsseerapidgrowth.Theyaccount
666、foralmost20%ofglobalfinalenergyin2050,comparedwith1%in2020.Morethan500Mtoflowcarbonhydrogenisproducedin2050,ofwhichabout60% is produced using electrolysis that accounts for 20% of global electricitygenerationin2050.Liquidbiofuelsprovide45%ofglobalaviationfuelin2050. Electricitydemandgrowsrapidlyinth
667、eNZE,rising40%fromtodayto2030andmorethantwoandahalftimesto2050,whileemissionsfromgenerationfalltonetzeroinaggregateinadvancedeconomiesby2035andgloballyby2040.Renewablesdrivethetransformation,upfrom29%ofgenerationin2020to60%in2030andnearly90%in2050.From2030to2050,600GWofsolarPVand340GWofwindareaddede
668、achyear.Theleastefficientcoalplantsarephasedoutby2030andallunabatedcoalby2040.Investmentinelectricitygridstriplesto2030andremainselevatedto2050. Inindustry,emissionsdropby20%to2030and90%to2050.Around60%ofheavyindustryemissionsreductionsin2050intheNZEcomefromtechnologiesthatarenotreadyformarkettoday:
669、manyoftheseusehydrogenorCCUS.From2030,allnewindustrycapacityadditionsarenearzeroemissions.Eachmonthfrom2030,theworldequips10newandexistingheavyindustryplantswithCCUS,adds3newhydrogenbasedindustrialplantsandadds2GWofelectrolysercapacityatindustrialsites. Intransport,emissionsdropby20%to2030and90%to20
670、50.Theinitialfocusisonincreasingtheoperationalandtechnicalefficiencyoftransportsystems,modalshifts,andtheelectrificationofroadtransport.By2030,electriccarsaccountforover60%ofcarsales(4.6%in2020)andfuelcellorelectricvehiclesare30%ofheavytrucksales(lessthan0.1%in2020).By2035,nearlyallcarssoldgloballya
671、reelectric,andby2050nearly all heavy trucks sold are fuel cell or electric. Lowemissions fuels andbehaviouralchangeshelptoreduceemissionsinlongdistancetransport,butaviationandshippingremainchallengingandaccountfor330MtCO2emissionsin2050. Inbuildings,emissionsdropby40%to2030andmorethan95%to2050.By203
672、0,around 20% of the existing building stock worldwide is retrofitted and all newbuildings comply with zerocarbonready building standards. Over 80% of theappliances sold are the most efficient models available by 2025 in advancedeconomiesandbythemid2030sworldwide.Therearenonewfossilfuelboilerssoldfro
673、m2025,exceptwheretheyarecompatiblewithhydrogen,andsalesofheatpumpssoar.By2050,electricityprovides66%ofenergyuseinbuildings(33%in2020).Naturalgasuseforheatingdropsby98%intheperiodto2050.S U M M A R YIEA. All rights reserved.100 International Energy Agency | Special Report 3.1 IntroductionThe NetZero
674、Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) involves a global energy systemtransformationthatisunparalleledinitsspeedandscope.Thischapterlooksathowthemainsectorsaretransformed,aswellasthespecificchallengesandopportunitiesthisinvolves (Figure3.1). It covers the supply of fossil and lowemissions fuels, electrici
675、tygenerationandthethreemainendusesectorsindustry,transportandbuildings.Foreachsector,wesetoutsomekeytechnologyandinfrastructuremilestonesonwhichtheNZEdependsforitssuccessfuldelivery.Furtherwediscusswhatkeypolicydecisionsareneeded,andbywhen,toachievethesemilestones.Recognisingthatthereisnosinglepathw
676、aytoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050andthattherearemanyuncertaintiesrelatedtocleanenergytransitions,inthischapterwealsoexploretheimplicationsofchoosingnottorelyoncertainfuels,technologiesoremissionsreductionoptionsacrossthetransformationandendusesectors.Figure 3.1 CO2 emissions by sector in the NZE IEA
677、.Allrightsreserved.Emissions fall fastest in the power sector, with transport, buildings and industry seeing steady declines to 2050. Reductions are aided by the increased availability of low-emissions fuels Note:Other=agriculture,fuelproduction,transformationandrelatedprocessemissions,anddirectairc
678、apture.3.2 Fossilfuelsupply3.2.1 EnergytrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenarioCoalusedeclinesfrom5250milliontonnesofcoalequivalent(Mtce)in2020to2500Mtcein2030andtolessthan600Mtcein2050.Evenwithincreasingdeploymentofcarboncapture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), coal use in 2050 is 90% lower than in 2020
679、5050203020402050GtCOPowerBuildingsTransportIndustryOtherChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 101 3(Figure3.2).Oildemandneverreturnstoits2019peakanditdeclinesfrom88millionbarrelsperday(mb/d)in2020to72mb/din2030andto24mb/din2050,afallofalmost75%between2020and2050.Natu
680、ralgasquicklyreboundsfromthedipindemandin2020andrisesthroughtothemid2020s,reachingapeakofaround4300billioncubicmetres(bcm),beforedroppingto3700bcmin2030andto1750bcmin2050.By2050,naturalgasuseis55%lowerthanin2020.Figure 3.2 Coal, oil and natural gas production in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Between
681、 2020 and 2050, demand for coal falls by 90%, oil by 75%, and natural gas by 55% OilThetrajectoryofoildemandintheNZEmeansthatnoexplorationfornewresourcesisrequiredand,otherthanfieldsalreadyapprovedfordevelopment,nonewoilfieldsarenecessary.However,continuedinvestmentinexistingsourcesofoilproductionar
682、eneeded.OnaverageoildemandintheNZEfallsbymorethan4%peryearbetween2020and2050.Ifallcapitalinvestmentinproducingoilfieldsweretoceaseimmediately,thiswouldleadtoalossofover8%ofsupplyeachyear.Ifinvestmentweretocontinueinproducingfieldsbutnonewfieldsweredeveloped,thentheaverageannuallossofsupplywouldbearo
683、und4.5%(Figure3.3).Thedifferenceismadeupbyfieldsthatarealreadyapprovedfordevelopment.ThesedynamicsarereflectedintheoilpriceintheNZE,whichdropstoaroundUSD35/barrelin 2030 and USD25/barrel in 2050. This price trajectory is largely determined by theoperatingcostsforfieldscurrentlyinoperation,andonlyave
684、rysmallvolumeofexistingproductionwouldneedtobeshutin.However,incomefromoilproductioninallcountriesismuchlowerintheNZEthaninrecentyears,1andtheNZEprojectssignificantstranded1Governmentsmayalsoreduceoreliminateupstreamtaxestoensurethatproductioncostsarebelowtheoilpricetomaintaindomesticproduction.5010
685、0000200402050EJHistoricalProjectedNatural gasOilCoalIEA. All rights reserved.102 International Energy Agency | Special Report capitalandstrandedvalue.2TheoilpriceintheNZEwouldbesufficientinprincipletocoverthecostofdevelopingnewfieldsforthelowestcostproducers,includingthoseinthe
686、MiddleEast,butitisassumedthatmajorresourceholdersdonotproceedwithinvestmentinnewfieldsbecausedoingsowouldcreatesignificantadditionaldownwardpressureonprices.The refining sector also faces major challenges in the NZE. Refinery throughput dropsconsiderablyandtherearesignificantchangesinproductdemand.W
687、ithrapidelectrificationofthevehiclefleet,thereisamajordropindemandfortraditionalrefinedproductssuchasgasolineanddiesel,whiledemandfornoncombustedproductssuchaspetrochemicalsincreases.Inrecentyears,around55%ofoildemandwasforgasolineanddiesel,butthisdropstolessthan15%in2050,whiletheshareofethane,napht
688、haandliquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG)risesfrom20%inrecentyearstoalmost60%in2050.Thisshiftaccentuatesthedropinoildemandforrefiners,andrefineryrunsfallby85%between2020and2050.Refinersareusedtocopingwithchangingdemandpatterns,butthescaleofthechangesintheNZEwouldinevitablyleadtorefineryclosures,especially for
689、refineriesnotabletoconcentrateprimarilyonpetrochemicaloperationsortheproductionofbiofuels.Figure 3.3 Oil and natural gas production in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.No new oil and natural gas fields are required beyond those already approved for development. Supply is increasingly concentrated in a
690、few major producing countries NaturalgasNonewnaturalgasfieldsareneededintheNZEbeyondthosealreadyunderdevelopment.Alsonotneededaremanyoftheliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)liquefactionfacilitiescurrentlyunderconstructionorattheplanningstage.Between2020and2050,naturalgastradedas2Strandedcapitaliscapitalinvestm
691、entinfossilfuelinfrastructurethatisnotrecoveredovertheoperatinglifetimeoftheassetbecauseofreduceddemandorreducedpricesresultingfromclimatepolicies.Strandedvalueisareductioninthefuturerevenuegeneratedbyanassetorassetownerassessedatagivenpointintimebecauseofreduceddemandorreducedpricesresultingfromcli
692、matepolicies(IEA,2020a).255075020203020402050mb/dMiddleEastNorthAmericaEurasiaAfricaAsiaPacificCentralandSouthAmericaEuropeOil20203020402050ThousandbcmNaturalgasChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 103 3LNGfallsby60%andtradebypipelinefallsby65%.Duringthe2
693、030s,globalnaturalgasdemanddeclinesbymorethan5%peryearonaverage,meaningthatsomefieldsmaybeclosedprematurelyorshutintemporarily.Declinesinnaturalgasdemandslowafter2040,andmorethanhalfofnaturalgasusegloballyin2050istoproducehydrogeninfacilitieswithCCUS.Thelargelevelofhydrogen,alsoproducedusingelectrol
694、ysis,andbiomethaneintheNZE,meansthatthedeclineintotalgaseousfuelsismoremutedthanthedeclineinnaturalgas.Thishasimportantimplicationsforthefutureofthegasindustry(seeChapter4).CoalNonewcoalminesorextensionsofexistingonesareneededintheNZEascoaldemanddeclinesprecipitously.Demandforcokingcoalfallsatasligh
695、tlyslowerratethanforsteamcoal,butexistingsourcesofproductionaresufficienttocoverdemandthroughto2050.Suchadeclineincoaldemandwouldhavemajorconsequencesforemploymentincoalminingregions(seeChapter4).Thereisaslowdownintherateofdeclineinthe2040sascoalproductionfacilitiesareincreasinglyequippedwithCCUS:in
696、theNZE,around80%ofcoalproducedin2050appliesCCUS.3.2.2 InvestmentinoilandgasUpstreamoilandgasinvestmentaveragesaboutUSD350billioneachyearfrom2021to2030intheNZE(Figure3.4).Thisissimilartothelevelin2020,butaround30%lowerthanaverage levels during the previous five years. Once fields under development st
697、artproduction,alloftheupstreaminvestmentintheNZEistosupportoperationsinexistingfields;after2030,totalannualupstreaminvestmentisaroundUSD170billioneachyear.Figure 3.4 Investment in oil and natural gas supply in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Once fields under development start production, all upstream
698、 oil and gas investment is spent on maintaining production at existing fields Note:Investmentinnewfieldsinthe20212030periodisforprojectsthatarealreadyunderconstructionorhavebeenapproved.200400600202024020400200202024020412050BillionUS
699、D(2019)RefiningTransportExistingNewOilNaturalgasFieldsIEA. All rights reserved.104 International Energy Agency | Special Report 3.2.3 EmissionsfromfossilfuelproductionEmissionsfromthesupplychainsofcoal,oilandnaturalgasfalldramaticallyintheNZE.Theglobalaveragegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsintensityofoil
700、productiontodayisjustunder100kilogrammesofcarbondioxideequivalent(kgCO2eq)perbarrel.Withoutchanges,alargeproportionofglobalproductionwouldbecomeuneconomic,asCO2pricesareappliedtothefullvaluechainsoffossilfuels.Forexample,by2030theCO2priceinadvancedeconomiesintheNZEisUSD100pertonneofCO2(tCO2),whichwo
701、uldaddUSD10tothecostofproducingeachbarrelattodaysaveragelevelofemissionsintensity.Methaneconstitutesabout60%ofemissionsfromthecoalandnaturalgassupplychainsandabout35%ofemissionsfromtheoilsupplychain.IntheNZE,totalmethaneemissionsfromfossilfuelsfallbyaround75%between2020and2030,equivalenttoa2.5gigato
702、nneofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO2eq)reductioninGHGemissions(Figure3.5).Aroundonethirdofthisdeclineisaresultofanoverallreductioninfossilfuelconsumption,butthelargersharecomesfromahugeincreaseinthedeploymentofemissionsreductionmeasuresandtechnologies,whichleadstotheeliminationofalltechnicallyavoidabl
703、emethaneemissionsby2030(IEA,2020a).Figure 3.5 Methane emissions from coal, oil and natural gas in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Methane emissions from fossil fuels fall by 75% between 2020 and 2030 as result of a concerted global effort to deploy all available reduction measures and technologies Not
704、e:Mt=milliontonnes.ActionstoreducetheemissionsintensityofexistingoilandgasoperationsintheNZEleadsto:theendofallflaring;theuseofCCUSwithcentralisedsourcesofemissions(includingtocapturenaturalsourcesofCO2thatareoftenextractedwithnaturalgas);andsignificantelectrification of upstream operations (often m
705、aking use of offgrid renewable energysources).04080200252030MtCOeqMtmethaneNaturalgasOilCoalChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 105 3TheNZEinevitablybringssignificantchallengesforfossilfuelindustriesandthosewhoworkinthem,butitalsobringsopportu
706、nities.CoalminingdeclinesdramaticallyintheNZE,buttheminingofmineralsneededforcleanenergytransitionsincreasesveryrapidly,andminingexpertiseislikelytobehighlyvaluedinthiscontext.TheoilandgasindustrycouldplayakeyroleinhelpingtodevelopatscaleanumberofcleanenergytechnologiessuchasCCUS,lowcarbonhydrogen,b
707、iofuelsandoffshorewind.Scalingupthesetechnologiesandbringingdowntheircostswillrelyonlargescaleengineeringandprojectmanagementcapabilities,qualitiesthatareagoodmatchtothoseoflargeoilandgascompanies.Theseissues,includingthequestionofhowtohelpthoseaffectedbythemajorchangesimpliedbytheNZE,arediscussedin
708、moredetailinChapter4.3.3 Lowemissionsfuelsupply3.3.1 EnergytrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenarioReachingnetzeroemissionswillrequirelowemissionsfuels3whereenergyneedscannoteasilyoreconomicallybemetbyelectricity(Figure3.6).Thisislikelytobethecaseforsomemodesoflongdistancetransport(trucks,aviationandship
709、ping)andofheatandfeedstocksupplyinheavyindustry.Somelowemissionsfuelsareeffectivelydropin,i.e.theyarecompatiblewiththeexistingfossilfueldistributioninfrastructureandendusetechnologies,andrequirefewifanymodificationstoequipmentorvehicles.Lowemissionsfuelstodayaccountforjust1%ofglobalfinalenergydemand
710、,asharethatincreasesto20%in2050intheNZE.Liquidbiofuelsmeet14%ofglobaltransportenergydemandin2050,upfrom4%in2020;hydrogenbasedfuelsmeetafurther28%oftransportenergyneedsby2050.Lowcarbongases(biomethane,syntheticmethaneandhydrogen)meet35%ofglobaldemandforgassuppliedthroughnetworksin2050,upfromalmostzer
711、otoday.Thecombinedshareoflowcarbonhydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsintotalfinalenergyuseworldwidereaches13%in2050.Hydrogenandammoniaalsoprovideimportantlowemissionssourcesofpowersystemflexibilityandcontribute2%ofoverallelectricitygenerationin2050,whichisenoughtomaketheelectricitysectoranimportantdrivero
712、fhydrogendemand.3Lowemissionsfuelsrefertoliquidbiofuels,biogasandbiomethane,andhydrogenbasedfuels(hydrogen,ammoniaandsynthetichydrocarbonfuels)thatdonotemitCO2fromfossilfuelsdirectlywhenusedandalsoemitverylittlewhenbeingproduced.Forexample,hydrogenproducedfromnaturalgaswithCCUSandhighcapturerates(90
713、%orhigher)isconsideredalowemissionsfuel,butnotifproducedwithoutCCUS.IEA. All rights reserved.106 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 3.6 Global supply of low-emissions fuels by sector in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Low-emissions fuels in the form of liquid biofuels, biomethane, hyd
714、rogen-based fuels help to decarbonise sectors where direct electrification is challenging Notes:TFC=totalfinalconsumption.Lowcarbongasesinthegasgridreferstotheblendingofbiomethane,hydrogenandsyntheticmethanewithnaturalgasinagasnetworkforuseinbuildings,industry,transportandelectricitygeneration.Synfu
715、elsrefertosynthetichydrocarbonfuelsproducedfromhydrogenandCO2.Finalenergyconsumptionofhydrogenincludes,inadditiontothefinalenergyconsumptionofhydrogen,ammoniaandsynthetichydrocarbonfuels,theonsitehydrogenproductionintheindustrysector.3.3.2 Biofuels4Around10%oftheglobalprimarysupplyofmodernbioenergy(
716、biomassexcludingtraditionalusesforcooking)wasconsumedasliquidbiofuelsforroadtransportand6%wasconsumedasbiogases(biogasandbiomethane)toprovidepowerandheatin2020,withtherestdirectly used for electricity generation and heating in the residential sector. SupplyacceleratessharplyintheNZEwithliquidbiofuel
717、sexpandingbyafactorofalmostfourandbiogasesincreasingbyafactorofsixby2050.Allbutabout7%ofliquidbiofuelsfortransportarecurrentlyproducedfromconventionalcropssuchassugarcane,cornandsoybeans.Suchcropsdirectlycompetewitharablelandthatcanbeusedforfoodproduction,whichlimitsthescopeforexpandingoutput.Somost
718、ofthegrowthinbiofuelsintheNZEcomesfromadvancedfeedstockssuchaswastesandresiduesandwoodyenergycropsgrownonmarginallandsandcroplandnotsuitableforfood4Liquidsandgasesproducedfrombioenergy.10%20%30%40%202020302050202020302050202020302050ShippingAviationRoadtransportBiomethaneHydrogenSyntheticmethaneBuil
719、dingsIndustryTransporthydrogenTransportammoniaTransportsynfuelsLiquidbiofuelsintransportLowcarbongasesingasgridHydrogenbasedfuelsinTFCChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 107 3production(seesection2.7.2).Advancedliquidbiofuelproductiontechnologyusingwoodyfeedstockexpandsrapidl
720、yoverthenextdecadeintheNZE,anditscontributiontoliquidbiofuelsjumpsfromlessthan1%in2020toalmost45%in2030and90%in2050(Figure3.7).By2030,productionreaches2.7millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday(mboe/d)by2030,underpinnedbybiomassgasificationusingtheFischerTropschprocess(bioFT)andcellulosicethanol,mostlyt
721、oproducedropinsubstitutesfordieselandjetkerosene.Advancedliquidbiofuelproductionincreasesbyanadditional130%tomorethan6mboe/din2050,thebulkofwhichisbiokerosene.Figure 3.7 Global biofuels production by type and technology in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Liquid biofuel production quadruples while that
722、 of biogases expands sixfold between 2020 and 2050, underpinned by the development of sustainable biomass supply chains Notes: EJ = exajoules; CCUS=carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Conventional ethanol refers toproductionusingfoodenergycrops.Advancedethanolreferstoproductionusingwastesandres
723、iduesandnonfoodenergycropsgrownonmarginalandnonarableland.Conventionalbiodieselincludesfattyacidandmethylesters(FAME)routeusingfoodenergycrops.AdvancedbiodieselincludesbiomassbasedFischerTropschandHEFAroutesusingwastes,residuesandnonfoodenergycropsgrownonmarginalandnonarableland.Biomethaneincludesbi
724、ogasupgradingandbiomassgasificationbasedroutes.Production using these feedstocks is mostly under development today. Current outputcapacity,principallycellulosicethanol,isabout2.5thousandbarrelsofoilequivalentperday(kboe/d).TheNZEassumesthatprojectscurrentlyinthepipelineinJapan,theUnitedKingdomandthe
725、UnitedStateswillbringthesetechnologiestothemarketwithinthenextfewyears.Thescaleuprequiredforalladvancedliquidbiofuels(includingfromwasteoils)overthenextdecadeisequivalenttobuildingone55kboe/dbiorefineryeverytenweeks(theworldslargestbiorefineryhascapacityof28kboe/d).Thesupplyofthesebiofuelsafter2030s
726、hiftsrapidlyintheNZEfrompassengervehiclesandlighttrucks,whereelectrificationisincreasinglytheorderoftheday,toheavyroadfreight,shipping and aviation. Ammonia makes inroads into shipping. Advanced liquid biofuelsincreasetheirshareoftheglobalaviationfuelmarketfrom15%in2030to45%in2050.5020302
727、0202050204020302020EJBiogasBiomethaneConventionalethanolAdvancedethanolConventionalbiodieselAdvancedbiodieselandbiokerosenewithCCUSLiquidbiofuelsGaseousbiofuelsIEA. All rights reserved.108 International Energy Agency | Special Report Advancedbiofuelssuchashydrogenatedestersandfattyacids(HEFA)andbioF
728、Tareabletoadjusttheirproductslates(uptoapoint)fromrenewabledieseltobiokerosene,andexistingethanol plants, especially those that can be retrofitted with CCUS or integrated withcellulosicfeedstock,alsomakeacontribution.Thesupplyofbiogasesincreasesevenmorethanliquidbiofuels.Injectionintogasnetworksexpa
729、ndsfromunder1%oftotalgasvolumein2020toalmost20%in2050,reducingtheemissionsintensityofthenetworkbasedgas.Biomethaneismostlyproducedbyupgradingbiogasproducedfromanaerobicdigestionoffeedstockssuchasagriculturalresidueslikemanureandbiogenicmunicipalsolidwaste,therebyavoidingmethaneemissionsthatwouldothe
730、rwisebereleased.Duetothedispersednatureofthesefeedstocks,thisassumestheconstructionofthousandsofinjectionsitesandassociateddistributionlineseveryyear.BiogasandbiomethanearealsousedascleancookingfuelsandinelectricitygenerationintheNZE.TheproductionofbiofuelscanbecombinedwithCCUSatarelativelylowcostin
731、somebiofuelproduction routes (ethanol, bioFT, biogas upgrading) because the processes involvedreleaseverypurestreamsofCO2.IntheNZE,theuseofbiofuelswithCCUSresultsinannualcarbondioxideremoval(CDR)of0.6GtCO2in2050,whichoffsetresidualemissionsintransportandindustry.3.3.3 HydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuelsHy
732、drogenuseintheenergysectortodayislargelyconfinedtooilrefiningandtheproductionofammoniaandmethanolinthechemicalsindustry.Globalhydrogendemandwasaround90milliontonnes(Mt)in2020,mainlyproducedfromfossilfuels(mostlynaturalgas)andemitting close to 900MtCO2. Both the amount needed and the production route
733、 ofhydrogenchangeradicallyintheNZE.Demandincreasesalmostsixfoldto530Mtin2050,ofwhichhalfisusedinheavyindustry(mainlysteelandchemicalsproduction)andinthetransportsector;30%isconvertedintootherhydrogenbasedfuels,mainlyammoniaforshippingandelectricitygeneration,synthetickeroseneforaviationandsyntheticm
734、ethaneblendedintogasnetworks;and17%isusedingasfiredpowerplantstobalanceincreasingelectricitygenerationfromsolarPVandwindandtoprovideseasonalstorage.Overall,hydrogenbasedfuels5accountfor13%ofglobalfinalenergydemandin2050(Figure3.8).Ammoniaisusedtodayasfeedstockinthechemicalindustry,butintheNZEitisals
735、ousedasfuelinvariousenergyapplications,benefittingfromitslowertransportcostandhigherenergydensitythanhydrogen.Ammoniaaccountsforaround45%ofglobalenergydemandforshippingin2050intheNZE.CofiringwithammoniaisalsoapotentialearlyoptiontoreduceCO2emissionsinexistingcoalfiredpowerplants.Thetoxicityofammonia
736、meansthatitshandlingislikelytobelimitedtoprofessionallytrainedoperators,whichcouldrestrictitspotential.5Hydrogenbasedfuelsaredefinedashydrogen,ammoniaaswellassynthetichydrocarbonfuelsproducedfromhydrogenandCO2.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 109 3Figure 3.8 Global product
737、ion of hydrogen by fuel and hydrogen demand by sector in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Hydrogen production jumps sixfold by 2050, driven by water electrolysis and natural gas with CCUS, to meet rising demand in shipping, road transport and heavy industry Note:RefiningCNR=hydrogenbyproductfromcatalyt
738、icnaphthareformingatrefineries.Synthetickerosenemeetsaroundonethirdofglobalaviationfueldemandin2050intheNZE.ItsmanufactureatbioenergyfiredpowerorbiofuelproductionplantsrequiresCO2capturedfromtheatmosphere.CO2fromthesesourcescanbeconsideredcarbonneutral,asitresultsinnonetemissionswhenthefuelisused.Th
739、ereisscopeforthecoproductionofadvancedliquidbiofuelsandsyntheticliquidfuelsfromhydrogenandCO2,withtheintegrationofthetwoprocessesreducingtheoverallliquidfuelproductioncosts.Alongsidesyntheticliquidfuels,enoughsyntheticmethaneisproducedfromhydrogenandCO2in2050tomeet10%ofdemandfornetworksuppliedgasint
740、hebuildings,industryandtransportsectors.By 2050, hydrogen production in the NZE is almost entirely based on lowcarbontechnologies: water electrolysis accounts for more than 60% of global production, andnaturalgasincombinationwithCCUSforalmost40%.Globalelectrolysercapacityreaches850gigawatts (GW) by
741、2030 and 3600GW by 2050, up from around 0.3GW today.Electrolysisabsorbscloseto15000terawatthours(TWh),or20%ofglobalelectricitysupplyin2050,largelyfromrenewableresources(95%),butalsofromnuclearpower(3%)andfossilfuelswithCCUS(2%).NaturalgasuseforhydrogenproductionwithCCUSis925bcmin2050,oraround50%ofgl
742、obalnaturalgasdemand,with1.8GtCO2beingcaptured.Scalingupdeploymentoftechnologiesandrelatedmanufacturingcapacitywillbecriticaltoreducing costs. Water electrolysers are available on the market today and hydrogenproductionfromnaturalgaswithCCUShasbeendemonstratedatacommercialscale(therearesevenplantsin
743、operationaroundtheworld).Thechoicebetweenthetwodependson2004006002020203020402050MtFossilwithCCUSRefiningCNRElectricityHydrogenproduction25%50%75%ShippingRoadtransportAviation Chemicals IronandsteelSyntheticfuelsAmmoniaHydrogenShareofhydrogenfuelsbysectorin2050IEA. All rights reserved.110 Internatio
744、nal Energy Agency | Special Report economicfactors,mainlythecostofnaturalgasandelectricity,andonwhetherCO2storageisavailable.FornaturalgaswithCCUS,productioncostsintheNZEarearoundUSD12perkilogramme(kg)ofhydrogenin2050,withgascoststypicallyaccountingfor1555%oftotalproductioncosts.Forwaterelectrolysis
745、,learningeffectsandeconomiesofscaleresultinCAPEXcostreductionsof60%inthe NZE by2030comparedto2020. Productioncostreductionshingeonloweringthecostoflowcarbonelectricity,aselectricityaccountsfor5085% of total production costs, depending on the electricity source and region. Theaveragecostofproducinghy
746、drogenfromrenewablesdropsintheNZEfromUSD3.57.5/kgtodaytoaroundUSD1.53.5/kgin2030andUSD12.5/kgin2050essentiallyaboutthesameasthecostofproducingwithnaturalgaswithCCUS.Convertinghydrogenintootherenergycarriers,suchasammoniaorsynthetichydrocarbonfuels,involvesevenhighercosts.Butitresultsinfuelsthatcanbe
747、moreeasilytransportedandstored,andwhicharealsooftencompatiblewithexistinginfrastructureorendusetechnologies(asinthecaseofammoniaforshippingorsynthetickeroseneforaviation).Forammonia, the additional synthesis step increases the production costs by around 15%comparedwithhydrogen(mainlyduetoadditionalc
748、onversionlossesandequipmentcosts).TherelativelyhighcostofsynthetichydrocarbonfuelsexplainswhytheiruseislargelyrestrictedtoaviationintheNZE,wherealternativelowcarbonoptionsarelimited.Synthetickerosene costs were USD300700/barrel in 2020: although these costs fall toUSD130300/barrelby2050intheNZEasthe
749、costsofelectricityfromrenewablesandCO2feedstocksdecline,thecostofsynthetickeroseneremainsfarhigherthantheprojectedUSD25/barrelcostofconventionalkerosenein2050intheNZE.ThesupplyofCO2,capturedfrombioenergyequippedwithCCUSordirectaircapture(DAC),neededtomakethesefuelsis a relevant cost factor, accounti
750、ng for USD1570/barrel of the cost of synthetichydrocarbonfuelsin2050.Closingthesecostgapsimpliespenaltiesforfossilkeroseneorsupport measures for synthetic kerosene corresponding to a CO2 price ofUSD250400/tonne.IncreasingglobaldemandforlowcarbonhydrogenintheNZEprovidesameansforcountriesto export ren
751、ewable electricity resources that could not otherwise be exploited. Forexample, Chile and Australia announced ambitions to become major exporters in theirnational hydrogen strategies. With declining demand for natural gas in the NZE, gasproducingcountriescouldjointhismarketbyexportinghydrogenproduce
752、dfromnaturalgaswithCCUS.Longdistancetransportofhydrogen,however,isdifficultandcostlybecauseofitslowenergydensity,andcanaddaroundUSD13/kgofhydrogentoitsprice.Thismeansthat,dependingoneachcountrysowncircumstances,producinghydrogendomesticallymay be cheaper than importing it, even if domestic productio
753、n costs from lowcarbonelectricityornaturalgaswithCCUSarerelativelyhigh.InternationaltradeneverthelessbecomesincreasinglyimportantintheNZE:aroundhalfofglobalammoniaandathirdofsyntheticliquidfuelsaretradedin2050.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 111 33.3.4 Keymilestonesanddec
754、isionpointsTable 3.1 Key milestones in transforming low-emissions fuels Sector202020302050BioenergyShareofmodernbiofuelsinmodernbioenergy(excludingconversionlosses)20%45%48%Advancedliquidbiofuels(mboe/d)0.12.76.2Shareofbiomethaneintotalgasnetworks1%2%20%CO2capturedandstoredfrombiofuelsproduction(MtC
755、O2)1150625HydrogenProduction(MtH2)87212528ofwhich:lowcarbon(MtH2)9150520Electrolysercapacity(GW)400C.Otherheatsourcesincludessolarthermalandgeothermalheaters,aswellasimportedheatfromthepowerandfueltransformationsector.Electricityaccountsforaround40%ofheatdemandby2030andabout65%by2050.Forlow(400C),ac
756、countingforaround20%andaround15%respectivelyoftotalenergydemandin2050(Figure3.20).Therateofelectrolysercapacitydeploymentismuchlowerthanheavyindustries,buttheunitsizeswillalsobe25%50%75%100%205020302020205020302020205020302020FossilfuelheaterBiomassheaterElectricheaterHydrogenheaterHeatpumpOtherheat
757、sourcesMiningandconstructionFoodandtobaccoMachineryTextileandleatherTransportequipmentWoodandwoodproductsLow/mediumtemperatureheatdemandbytechnologyHeatdemandbysubsectorHightemperatureheatdemandbytechnologySubsectorsTechnologyChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 129 3much smal
758、ler. About 5% of heat demand is satisfied by direct use of renewables,includingsolarthermalandgeothermalheatingtechnologies.Energyefficiencyalsoplaysacriticalroleinthesemanufacturingindustries,notablythrough increased efficiency in electric motors (conveyers, pumps and other drivensystems).By2030,90
759、%ofthemotorsalesinotherindustriesareClass3orabove.3.5.2 KeymilestonesanddecisionpointsTable 3.3 Key milestones in transforming global heavy industry sub-sectors CategoryHeavyindustry 2035:virtually,allcapacityadditionsareinnovativelowemissionsroutes.Industrialmotors 2035:allelectricmotorssalesarebes
760、tinclass.Category202020302050TotalindustryShareofelectricityintotalfinalconsumption21%28%46%Hydrogendemand(MtH2)5193187CO2captured(MtCO2)33752800ChemicalsShareofrecycling:reuseinplasticscollection17%27%54%reuseinsecondaryproduction8%14%35%Hydrogendemand(MtH2)466383withonsiteelectrolysercapacity(GW)0
761、38210Shareofproductionviainnovativeroutes1%13%93%CO2captured(MtCO2)270540SteelRecycling,reuse:scrapasshareofinput32%38%46%Hydrogendemand(MtH2)51954withonsiteelectrolysercapacity(GW)036295Shareofprimarysteelproduction: hydrogenbasedDRIEAF0%2%29%ironoreelectrolysisEAF0%0%13%CCUSequippedprocesses0%6%53
762、%CO2captured170670CementClinkertocementratio0.710.650.57Hydrogendemand(MtH2)0212Shareofproductionviainnovativeroutes0%9%93%CO2captured(MtCO2)02151355Note:DRI=directreducediron;EAF=electricarcfurnace.From2030onwards,allnewcapacityadditionsinindustryintheNZEfeaturenearzeroemissionstechnologies.Muchoft
763、heheavyindustrycapacitythatwillbeaddedandreplacedIEA. All rights reserved.130 International Energy Agency | Special Report inthecomingyearsisinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies;theymayexpectfinancialsupportfromadvancedeconomies.Eachmonthfrom2030to2050,theNZEimpliesanadditional10industrialplantseq
764、uippedwithCCUS,threeadditionalfullyhydrogenbasedindustrialplantsand2GWofextraelectrolysercapacityatindustrialsites.Whilechallenging,thisisachievable.Forcomparison,about12heavyindustrialfacilitieswerebuiltfromscratchonaveragepermonthinChinaalonefrom2000to2015.By2050,nearlyallproductioninheavyindustry
765、iswithnearzeroemissionstechnologies.DecisiveactionfromgovernmentsisimperativetoachievecleanenergytransitionsinheavyindustryatthescaleandpaceenvisionedintheNZE.Withinthenexttwoyears,governmentsinadvancedeconomieswillneedtotakedecisionsaboutfundingforR&Dforcriticalnearzeroemissionsindustrialtechnologi
766、esandformitigatingtheinvestmentrisksassociatedwithdemonstrating them at scale. This should lead to at least two or three commercialdemonstrationprojectsforeachtechnologyindifferentregions,andtomarketdeploymentbythemid2020s.Internationalcoordinationandcooperationwouldfacilitatebetteruseofresourcesand
767、helppreventgapsinfunding.Governmentsalsoneedtotakeearlydecisionsonlargescaledeploymentofnearzeroemissionstechnologies.By2024inadvancedeconomiesand2026inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,governmentsshouldhaveinplaceastrategyforincorporatingnearzeroemissionstechnologiesintothenextseriesofcapacityad
768、ditionsandreplacementsforsteelandchemicalplants,whichshouldincludedecisionsaboutwhethertopursueCCUS,hydrogenoracombinationofboth.Iftheyaretosucceed,thosestrategiesneedtoincludeconcreteplansfordevelopingandfinancingthenecessaryinfrastructureforCCUSand/orhydrogen, together with clean electricity gener
769、ation for hydrogen production. Theconstructionoftherequiredinfrastructureshouldbeginassoonaspossiblegiventhelongleadtimesinvolved.Withinasimilartimeframe,governmentsofcountriesthatproducecementshoulddecidehow to develop the necessary CCUS infrastructure for that subsector, including thenecessarylega
770、landregulatoryframeworks.Importingcountriesshouldmakeplanstomoveprogressivelytoexclusiveuseoflowemissionscement,whichmayinvolvetheneedtosupportthedevelopmentofCCUSequippedfacilitieselsewhereinordertoensuresuppliesandtoavoidadisproportionateburdenbeingplacedonothercountries.Strategiesmustbeunderpinne
771、dbyspecificpolicies.By2025,allcountriesshouldhavealongtermCO2emissionsreductionpolicyframeworkinplacetoprovidecertaintythatthenextwaveofinvestmentincapacityadditionswillfeaturenearzeroemissionstechnologies.Successful strategies are likely to require initial measures such as carbon contracts fordiffe
772、rence,publicprocurementandincentivestoencourageprivatesectorprocurement.Asnewtechnologiesaredeployedandcostsdecline,thereislikelytobeastrongcasebyabout2030forreplacingtheseinitialmeasureswithotherssuchasCO2taxes,emissionstradingsystemsandemissionsperformancestandards.Financingsupportfornearzeroemiss
773、ionscapacityadditionsmayalsohaveanimportantroletoplaythroughmeasuressuchaslowinterestandconcessionalloansandblendedfinance,aswellasthroughcontributionsbyChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 131 3advancedeconomiestofundsthatsupportprojectsinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.
774、Strategiesshouldalsoincludemeasurestoreduceindustrialemissionsthroughmaterial efficiency, for example by revising design regulations, adopting incentives topromotelongerproductandbuildinglifetimes,andimprovingsystemsforcollectingandsortingmaterialsforrecycling.Thereisastrongcaseforaninternationalagr
775、eementonthetransitiontonearzeroemissionsfor globally traded products by the mid2020s so as to establish a level playing field.Alternatively, countries may need to resort to measures to shield domestic nearzeroemissionsproductionfromcompetitionfromproductsthatcreateemissions.Anysuchpolicywouldneedtob
776、edesignedtorespecttheregulatoryframeworksgoverninginternationaltrade,suchasthoseoftheWorldTradeOrganization.Evenwithacceleratedinnovationtimelinesandstrongpoliciesinplace,somehighemittingcapacityadditionswillbeneededtomeetdemandinthenextdecadebeforenearzeroemissionstechnologiesareavailable.Itwouldma
777、kesenseforgovernmentstorequireanynewcapacitytoincorporateretrofitreadydesignssothatunabatedcapacityaddedinthenextfewyearshasthetechnicalcapacityandspacerequirementtointegratenearzeroemissionstechnologiesincomingyears.Beyond2030,investmentintheNZEisconfinedtoinnovativenearzeroemissionsprocessroutes.G
778、overnmentsshouldnotoverlooktheneedformeasurestospurdeploymentofalreadyavailablenearzeroemissionstechnologiesinlightmanufacturingindustries.Adoptingacarbonpriceandthensufficientlyincreasingthepriceovertimethroughcarbontaxesoremissionstradingsystemsforlargermanufacturersmaybethesimplestwaytoachievetha
779、tobjective.Otherregulatorymeasuressuchastradeablelowcarbonfuelandemissionsstandardscouldyieldthesameoutcome,butmayinvolvegreateradministrativecomplexity.TechnologymandatesarelikelytobeneededtoachievetheenergyefficiencysavingsintheNZE,suchasminimumenergyperformancestandardsfornewmotorsandboilers.Tail
780、oredprogrammesandincentivesforsmallandmediumenterprisescouldalsoplayahelpfulrole.3.6 Transport3.6.1 EnergyandemissiontrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenarioTheglobaltransportsectoremittedover7GtCO2in2020,andnearly8.5Gtin2019beforetheCovid19pandemic.7IntheNZE,transportsectorCO2emissionsareslightlyover5.5
781、Gtin2030.By2050theyarearound0.7Gta90%droprelativeto2020levels.CO2emissionsdeclineevenwithrapidlyrisingpassengertravel,whichnearlydoublesby2050,andrisingfreightactivity,whichincreasesbytwoandahalftimesfromcurrentlevels,andanincreaseintheglobalpassengercarfleetfrom1.2billionvehiclesin2020tocloseto2bil
782、lionin2050.7Unlessotherwisenoted,CO2emissionsreportedherearedirectemissionsfromfossilfuelcombustedduringtheoperationofvehicles.IEA. All rights reserved.132 International Energy Agency | Special Report Thetransportmodesdonotdecarboniseatthesameratebecausetechnologymaturityvariesmarkedlybetweenthem(Fi
783、gure3.21).CO2emissionsfromtwo/threewheelersalmostceaseby2040,followedbycars,vansandrailinthelate2040s.Emissionsfromheavytrucks,shippingandaviationfallbyanannualaverageof6%between2020and2050,butstillcollectivelyamounttomorethan0.5GtCO2in2050.Thisreflectsprojectedactivitygrowthandthatmanyofthetechnolo
784、giesneededtoreduceCO2emissionsinlongdistancetransportarecurrentlyunderdevelopmentanddonotstarttomakesubstantialinroadsintothemarketinthecomingdecade.Figure 3.21 Global CO2 transport emissions by mode and share of emissions reductions to 2050 by technology maturity in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Pa
785、ssenger cars can make use of low-emissions technologies on the market, but major advances are needed for heavy trucks, shipping and aviation to reduce their emissions Notes: Other road = two/three wheelers and buses. Shipping and aviation include both domestic andinternationaloperations.SeeBox2.4for
786、detailsonthematuritycategories.DecarbonisationofthetransportsectorintheNZEreliesonpoliciestopromotemodalshiftsand more efficient operations across passenger transport modes (see sections2.5.7and4.4.3),8aswellasimprovementsinenergyefficiency.Italsodependsontwomajortechnologytransitions:shiftstowardse
787、lectricmobility(electricvehiclesEVsandfuelcellelectricvehiclesFCEVs)9andshiftstowardshigherfuelblendingratiosanddirectuseof8 Examples of efficient operations include: seamless integration of various modes (intermodality) and“MobilityasaService”inpassengertransport;logisticsmeasuresinroadfreight,e.g.
788、backhauling,nighttimedeliveries,realtimerouting;slowsteaminginshipping;andairtrafficmanagement,e.g.landingandtakeoffschedulinginaviation.9EVsincludebatteryelectricvehicles,pluginhybridelectricgasolinevehiclesandpluginhybridelectricdieselvehicles.FCEVscontainabatteryandelectricmotorandarecapableofope
789、ratingwithouttailpipeemissions.0203020402050GtCO2LightdutyvehiclesHeavytrucksOtherroadShippingAviationRailCOemissionsbymode25%50%75%100%HeavytrucksShippingAviationMatureMarketuptakeDemonstrationPrototypeTechnologymaturitybymodeChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 13
790、3 3lowcarbon fuels (biofuels and hydrogenbased fuels). These shifts are likely to requireinterventionstostimulateinvestmentinsupplyinfrastructureandtoincentiviseconsumeruptake.Transporthastraditionallybeenheavilyreliantonoilproducts,whichaccountedformorethan 90% of transport sector energy needs in 2
791、020 despite inroads from biofuels andelectricity(Figure3.22).IntheNZE,theshareofoildropstolessthan75%in2030andslightlyover10%by2050.Bytheearly2040s,electricitybecomesthedominantfuelinthetransportsectorworldwideintheNZE:itaccountsfornearly45%oftotalfinalconsumptionin2050,followedbyhydrogenbasedfuels(
792、28%)andbioenergy(16%).Biofuelsalmostreacha15%blendingshareinoilproductsby2030inroadtransport,whichreducesoilneedsbyaround4.5millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday(mboe/d).Beyond2030,biofuelsareincreasinglyusedforaviationandshipping,wherethescopeforusingelectricityandhydrogenismorelimited.Hydrogencarrie
793、rs(suchasammonia)andlowemissionssyntheticfuelsalsosupplyincreasingsharesofenergydemandinthesemodes.Figure 3.22 Global transport final consumption by fuel type and mode in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Electricity and hydrogen-based fuels account for more than 70% of transport energy demand by 2050 N
794、ote:LDVs=Lightdutyvehicles;Otherroad=two/threewheelersandbuses.RoadvehiclesElectrificationplaysacentralroleindecarbonisingroadvehiclesintheNZE.Batterycostdeclinesofalmost90%inadecadehaveboostedsalesofelectricpassengercarsby40%onaverage over the past five years. Battery technology is already relative
795、ly commerciallycompetitive.FCEVsstarttomakeinroadsinthe2020sintheNZE.Theelectrificationofheavytrucks moves more slowly due to the weight of the batteries, high energy and power30609020402050EJOtherAviationShippingRailHeavytrucksLDVsOtherroadHydrogenbasedfuelsBioenergyElectricityFossilfuel
796、sConsumptionbyfuel202020302050ConsumptionbymodeFuelsModesIEA. All rights reserved.134 International Energy Agency | Special Report requirementsrequiredforcharging,andlimitsondrivingranges.Butfuelcellheavytrucksmakesignificantprogress,mainlyafter2030(Figure3.23).Thenumberofbatteryelectric,pluginhybri
797、dandfuelcellelectriclightdutyvehicles(carsandvans)ontheworldsroadsreaches350millionin2030andalmost2billionin2050,upfrom11millionin2020.Thenumberofelectrictwo/threewheelersalsorisesrapidly,fromjustunder300milliontodayto600millionin2030and1.2billionin2050.Theelectricbusfleetexpandsfrom0.5millionin2020
798、to8millionin2030and50millionin2050.Figure 3.23 Global share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles in total sales by vehicle type in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Sales of battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles soar globally Note:Lightdutyvehicl
799、es=passengercarsandvans;Heavytrucks=mediumandheavyfreighttrucks.Lightdutyvehiclesareelectrifiedfasterinadvancedeconomiesoverthemediumtermandaccountforaround75%ofsalesby2030.Inemerginganddevelopingeconomies,theyaccountforabout50%ofsales.Almostalllightdutyvehiclesalesinadvancedeconomiesarebatteryelect
800、ric,pluginhybridorfuelcellelectricbytheearly2030sandinemerginganddevelopingeconomiesbythemid2030s.Forheavytrucksthatoperateoverlongdistances,currentlybiofuelsarethemainviablecommercialalternativetodiesel,andtheyplayanimportantroleinloweringemissionsfromheavydutytrucksoverthe2020s.Beyond2030,thenumbe
801、rofelectricandhydrogenpoweredheavytrucksincreasesintheNZEassupportinginfrastructureisbuiltandascostsdecline(lowerbatterycosts,energydensityimprovementsandlowercoststoproduceanddeliver hydrogen) (IEA, 2020b). This coincides with a reduction in the availability ofsustainablebioenergy,aslimitedsupplies
802、increasinglygotohardtoabatesegmentssuchasaviationandshipping,thoughbiofuelsstillmeetabout10%offuelneedsforheavydutytrucksin2050(seeChapter2).Advancedeconomieshaveahighermarketshareofbattery20%40%60%80%100%202020302050202020302050202020302050BatteryelectricPluginhybridelectricFuelcellelectricLightdut
803、yvehiclesHeavytrucksTwo/threewheelersChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 135 3electricandfuelcellelectricheavydutytruckssalesin2030,morethantwicethelevelinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,althoughthisgapclosestowards2050.Figure 3.24 Heavy trucks distribution by daily driv
804、ing distance, 2050 IEA.Allrightsreserved.Driving distance is the key factor affecting powertrain choice for trucks RealisingtheobjectivesoftheNZEdependsonrapidscalingupofbatterymanufacturing(currentannouncedproductioncapacityfor2030wouldcoveronly50%ofrequireddemandin that year), and on the rapid int
805、roduction on the market of next generation batterytechnology(solidstatebatteries)between2025and2030.Electrifiedroadsystemsusingconductiveorinductivepowertransfertoprovideelectricitytotrucksofferanalternativeforbatteryelectricandfuelcellelectrictrucksonlongdistanceoperations,butthesesystemstoowouldne
806、edrapiddevelopmentanddeployment.Aviation10TheNZEassumesthatairtravel,measuredinrevenuepassengerkilometres,increasesbyonlyaround3%peryearto2050relativeto2020.Thiscompareswithaboutaround6%overthe201019period.TheNZEassumesthataviationgrowthisconstrainedbycomprehensivegovernmentpoliciesthatpromoteashift
807、towardshighspeedrailandreininexpansionoflonghaul business travel, e.g. through taxes on commercial passenger flights (seesection2.5.2).GlobalCO2emissionsfromaviationriseintheNZEfromabout640Mtin2020(downfromaround1Gtin2019)toapeakof950Mtbyaround2025.Emissionsthenfallto210Mtin2050astheuseoflowemission
808、sfuelsgrows.Emissionsarehardtoabatebecauseaviation10Aviationconsideredhereincludesbothdomesticandinternationalflights.Whilethefocushereisoncommercial passenger aviation, dedicated freight and general (military and private) aviation, whichcollectivelyaccountformorethan10%offueluseandemissions,arealso
809、includedintheenergyandemissionsaccounting.0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%02004006008001000ProbabilitydensityDailydrivingdistance(km)BatteryelectricFuelcellelectricIEA. All rights reserved.136 International Energy Agency | Special Report requiresfuelwithahighenergydensity.Emissionsinaviationcomprisejustove
810、r10%ofunabatedCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustrialprocessesin2050.IntheNZE,theglobaluseofjetkerosenedeclinestoabout3EJin2050from9EJin2020(andaround14.5EJin2019beforetheCovid19crisis),anditsshareoftotalenergyusefallsfromalmost100%tojustover20%.Theuseofsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)startstoincreases
811、ignificantlyinthelate2020s.In2030,around15%oftotalfuelconsumptioninaviationisSAF,mostofwhichisbiojetkerosene(atypeofliquidbiofuel).Thisisestimatedtoincreasetheticketpriceforamidhaulflight(1200km)byaboutUSD3perpassenger.By2050, biojet kerosene meets 45% of total fuel consumption in aviation and synth
812、etichydrogenbasedfuelsmeetabout30%.Thisisestimatedtoincreasetheticketpriceforamidhaulflightin2050byaboutUSD10perpassenger.TheNZEalsoseestheadoptionofcommercialbatteryelectricandhydrogenaircraftfrom2035,buttheyaccountforlessthan2%offuelconsumptionin2050.Operationalimprovements,togetherwithfuelefficie
813、ncytechnologiesforairframesandengines,alsohelptoreduceCO2emissionsbycurbingthepaceoffueldemandgrowthintheNZE.Theseimprovementsareincremental,butrevolutionarytechnologiessuchasopenrotors,blendedwingbodyairframesandhybridisationcouldbringfurthergainsandenabletheindustrytomeettheInternationalCiviIAviat
814、ionOrganizations(ICAO)ambitious2050efficiencytargets(IEA,2020b).Maritimeshipping11Maritimeshippingwasresponsibleforaround830MtCO2emissionsworldwidein2020(880MtCO2in2019),whichisaround2.5%oftotalenergysectoremissions.Duetoalackofavailable lowcarbon options on the market and the long lifetime of vesse
815、ls (typically2535years), shipping is one of the few transport modes that does not achieve zeroemissionsby2050intheNZE.Nevertheless,emissionsfromshippingdeclineby6%annuallyto120MtCO2in2050.Intheshortterm,thereisconsiderablepotentialforcurbingfuelconsumptioninshippingthroughmeasurestooptimiseoperation
816、alefficiencyandimproveenergyefficiency.Suchapproachesincludeslowsteamingandtheuseofwindassistancetechnologies(IEA,2020b).Inthemediumtolongterm,significantemissionsreductionsareachievedintheNZEbyswitchingtolowcarbonfuelssuchasbiofuels,hydrogenandammonia.Ammonialookslikelyto be a particularly good can
817、didate for scaling up, and a critical fuel for longrangetransoceanicjourneysthatneedfuelwithhighenergydensity.AmmoniaandhydrogenarethemainlowcarbonfuelsforshippingadoptedoverthenextthreedecadesintheNZE,theircombinedshareoftotalenergyconsumptioninshippingreachingaround60%in2050.The20largestportsinthe
818、worldaccountformorethanhalfofglobalcargo(UNCTAD,2018);theycouldbecomeindustrialhubstoproducehydrogenand11Maritimeshippinghereincludesbothdomesticandinternationaloperations.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 137 3ammoniaforuseinbothchemicalandrefiningindustries,aswellasforref
819、uellingships.Internalcombustionenginesforammoniafuelledvesselsarecurrentlybeingdevelopedbytwoofthelargestmanufacturersofmaritimeenginesandareexpectedtobecomeavailableonthemarketby2024.Sustainablebiofuelsprovidealmost20%oftotalshippingenergyneedsin2050.Electricityplaysaveryminorrole,astherelativelylo
820、wenergydensityofbatteriescomparedwithliquidfuelsmakesitsuitableonlyforshippingroutesofupto200km.Evenwithan85%increaseinbatteryenergydensityintheNZEassolidstatebatteriescometomarket,onlyshortdistanceshippingroutescanbeelectrified.RailRailtransportisthemostenergyefficientandleastcarbonintensivewaytomo
821、vepeopleandsecondonlytoshippingforcarryinggoods.Passengerrailalmostdoublesitsshareoftotaltransportactivityto20%by2050intheNZE,withparticularlyrapidgrowthinurbanandhighspeedrail(HSR),thelatterofwhichcontributestocurbinggrowthinairtravel.GlobalCO2emissionsfromtherailsectorfallfrom95MtCO2in2020(100MtCO
822、2in2019)toalmostzeroby2050intheNZE,drivenprimarilybyrapidelectrification.Figure 3.25 Global energy consumption by fuel and CO2 intensity in non-road sectors in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Railways rely heavily on electricity to decarbonise, while shipping and aviation curb emissions mainly by swit
823、ching to low-emissions fuels Note:Syntheticfuel=lowemissionssynthetichydrogenbasedfuels.IntheNZE,allnewtracksonhighthroughputcorridorsareelectrifiedfromnowon,whilehydrogenandbatteryelectrictrains,whichhaverecentlybeendemonstratedinEurope,areadoptedonraillineswherethroughputistoolowtomakeelectrificat
824、ioneconomicallyviable.Oiluse,whichaccountedfor55%oftotalenergyconsumptionintherailsectorin2020,fallstoalmostzeroin2050:itisreplacedbyelectricity,whichprovidesover90%ofrailenergyneedsandbyhydrogenwhichprovidesanother5%.0%40%60%80%100%2020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 205
825、0gCO/MJOilGasBioenergyHydrogenAmmoniaElectricitySyntheticfuelCOintensityRailMaritimeshippingAviation(rightaxis)IEA. All rights reserved.138 International Energy Agency | Special Report 3.6.2 KeymilestonesanddecisionpointsTable 3.4 Key milestones in transforming the global transport sector CategoryRo
826、adtransport 2035:nonewpassengerinternalcombustionenginecarsalesgloballyAviationandshipping Implementationofstrictcarbonemissionsintensityreductiontargetsassoonaspossible.Category202020302050RoadtransportShareofPHEV,BEVandFCEVinsales:cars5%64%100%two/threewheelers40%85%100%bus3%60%100%vans0%72%100%he
827、avytrucks0%30%99%Biofuelblendinginoilproducts5%13%41%RailShareofelectricityandhydrogenintotalenergyconsumption43%65%96%Activityincreaseduetomodalshift(index2020=100)100100130AviationSynthetichydrogenbasedfuelsshareintotalaviationenergyconsumption0%2%33%Biofuelsshareintotalaviationenergyconsumption0%
828、16%45%Avoideddemandfrombehaviourmeasures(index2020=100)02038ShippingShareintotalshippingenergyconsumption:Ammonia0%8%46%Hydrogen0%2%17%Bioenergy0%7%21%InfrastructureEVpubliccharging(millionunits)1.340200Hydrogenrefuellingunits5401800090000Shareofelectrifiedraillines34%47%65%Note:PHEV=pluginhybridele
829、ctricvehicles;BEV=batteryelectricvehicles;FCEV=fuelcellelectricvehicles.ElectrificationisthemainoptiontoreduceCO2emissionsfromroadandrailmodes,thetechnologiesarealreadyonthemarketandshouldbeacceleratedimmediately,togetherwiththerolloutofrecharginginfrastructureforEVs.Deepemissionreductionsinthehardt
830、oabatesectors(heavytrucks,shippingandaviation)requireamassivescaleupoftherequiredtechnologiesoverthenextdecade,whichtodayarelargelyattheprototypeanddemonstrationstages,togetherwithplansforthedevelopmentofassociatedinfrastructure,includinghydrogenrefuellingstations.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to ne
831、t-zero emissions by 2050 139 3ThetransformationoftransportrequiredtobeontracktoreduceemissionsinlinewiththeNZEcallsforarangeofgovernmentdecisionsoverthenextdecade.Inthenextfewyears,allgovernmentsneedtoeliminatefossilfuelsubsidiesandencourageswitchingtolowcarbontechnologiesandfuelsacrosstheentiretran
832、sportsector.Before2025,governmentsneedtodefineclearR&Dprioritiesforallthetechnologiesthatcancontributetodecarbonisetransportinlinewiththeirstrategicprioritiesandneeds.Ideallythiswouldbeinformedbyinternationaldialogueandcollaboration.R&Discriticalinparticularforbatterytechnology,whichshouldbeanimmedi
833、atepriority.ToachievetheemissionsreductionsrequiredbytheNZE,governmentsalsoneedtomovequicklytosignaltheendofsalesofnewinternalcombustionenginecars.Earlycommitmentswouldhelptheprivatesectortomakethenecessaryinvestmentinnewpowertrains,relativesupplychainsandrefuellinginfrastructure(seesection4.3.4).Th
834、isisparticularlyimportantforthesupplyofbatterymetals,whichrequirelongtermplanning(IEA,2021a).By2025,thelargescaledeploymentofEVpubliccharginginfrastructureinurbanareasneedstobesufficientlyadvancedtoallowhouseholdswithoutaccesstoprivatechargerstoopt for EVs. Governments should ensure sustainable busi
835、ness models for companiesinstallingchargers,removebarrierstoplanningandconstruction,andputinplaceregulatory,fiscalandtechnologicalmeasurestoenableandencouragesmartcharging,andtoensurethatEVssupportelectricitygridstabilityandstimulatetheadoptionofvariablerenewables(IEA,2021b).Forheavytrucks,batteryel
836、ectrictrucksarejustbeginningtobecomeavailableonthemarket,andfuelcellelectrictechnologiesareexpectedtocometomarketinthenextfewyears.Workingincollaborationwithtruckmanufacturers,governmentsshouldtakestepsintheneartermtoprioritisetherapidcommercialadoptionofbatteryelectricandfuelcellelectrictrucks.By20
837、30,theyshouldtakestockofthecompetitiveprospectsforthesetechnologies,soastofocusR&Donthemostimportantchallengesandallowadequatetimeforstrategicinfrastructuredeployment,thuspavingthewayforlargescaleadoptionduringthe2030s.Governmentsneedtodefinetheirstrategiesforlowcarbonfuelsinshippingandaviationby202
838、5atthelatest,giventheslowturnoverrateofthefleets,afterwhichtheyshouldrapidlyimplementthem.Internationalcooperationandcollaborationwillbecrucialtosuccess.Priorityactionshouldtargetthemostheavilyusedportsandairportssoastomaximisetheimpactofinitialinvestment.Harboursnearindustrialareasareideallyplacedt
839、obecomelowcarbonfuelhubs.IEA. All rights reserved.140 International Energy Agency | Special Report Box 3.3 What would be the implications of an all-electric approach to emissions reductions in the road transport sector? TheuseofavarietyoffuelsinroadtransportisacorecomponentoftheNZE.However,governmen
840、tsmightwanttoconsideranallelectricroutetoeliminateCO2emissionsfromtransport,especiallyifothertechnologiessuchasFCEVsandadvancedbiofuelsfailtodevelopasprojected.WehavethereforedevelopedanAllElectricCasewhichlooksattheimplicationsofelectrifyingallroadvehiclemodes.IntheNZE,decarbonisationofroadtranspor
841、toccursprimarilyviatheadoptionofpluginhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs),batteryelectricvehicles(BEVs),fuelcellelectricvehicles(FCEVs)andadvancedbiofuels.TheAllElectricCaseassumesthesamerateofroadtransportdecarbonisationastheNZE,butachievedviabatteryelectricvehiclesalone.TheAllElectricCasedependsonevenfu
842、rtheradvancesinbatterytechnologiesthantheNZEthatleadtoenergydensitiesofatleast400Watthoursperkilogramme(Wh/kg)bythe2030satcoststhatwouldmakeBEVtruckspreferabletoFCEVtrucksinlonghauloperations.Thiswouldmean30%moreBEVs(anadditional350million)ontheroadin2030thanintheNZE.Oversixtyfivemillionpubliccharge
843、rswouldbeneededtosupportthevehicles,requiringacumulativeinvestmentofaroundUSD300billion,35%higherthantheNZE.Thiswouldrequirefasterexpansionofbatterymanufacturing.TheannualglobalbatterycapacityadditionsforBEVsin2030wouldbealmost9TWh,requiring80gigafactories(assuming35GWhperyearoutput)morethanintheNZE
844、,oranaverageofovertwopermonthfromnowto2030.Theincreaseduseofelectricityforroadtransportwouldalsocreateadditionalchallengesfortheelectricitysector.Thetotalelectricitydemandforroadtransport(11000TWhor15%oftotalelectricityconsumptionin2050),wouldberoughlythesameinbothcases,whenaccountistakenofdemandfor
845、electrolytichydrogen.However,theelectrolytichydrogenintheNZEcanbeproducedflexibly,inregionsandattimeswithsurplusrenewablesbasedcapacityandfromdedicated(offgrid)renewablepower.PeakpowerdemandintheAllElectricCase,takingintoconsiderationtheflexibilitythatenablessmartchargingofcars,isaboutonethird(2000G
846、W)higherthanintheNZE,mainlyduetotheadditionalevening/overnightchargingofbusesandtrucks.Ifnotcoupledwithenergystoragedevices,ultrafastchargersforheavydutyvehiclescouldcauseadditionalspikesindemand,puttingevenmorestrainonelectricitygrids.While full electrification of road transport is possible, it cou
847、ld involve additionalchallenges and undesirable side effects. For example, it could increase pressure onelectricity grids, requiring significant additional investment, and increasing thevulnerabilityofthetransportsystemtopowerdisruptions.Fueldiversificationcouldbringbenefitsintermsofresilienceandene
848、rgysecurity.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 141 3Figure 3.26 Global electricity demand and battery capacity for road transport in the NZE and the All-Electric Case IEA.Allrightsreserved.Both direct electricity consumption and vehicle battery capacity in 2050 increase by a
849、bout a quarter in the All-Electric Case relative to the NZE Note:AEC=AllElectricCase.3.7 Buildings3.7.1 EnergyandemissiontrendsintheNetZeroEmissionsScenarioFloorareainthebuildingssectorworldwideisexpectedtoincrease75%between2020and2050,ofwhich80%isinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Globally,floo
850、rareaequivalenttothesurfaceofthecityofParisisaddedeveryweekthroughto2050.Moreover,buildingsinmanyadvancedeconomieshavelonglifetimesandaroundhalfoftheexistingbuildingsstockwillstillbestandingin2050.Demandforappliancesandcoolingequipmentcontinues to grow, especially in emerging market and developing e
851、conomies where650millionairconditionersareaddedby2030andanother2billionby2050intheNZE.Despitethisdemandgrowth,totalCO2emissionsfromthebuildingssectordeclinebymorethan95%fromalmost3Gtin2020toaround120Mtin2050intheNZE.12Energyefficiencyandelectrificationarethetwomaindriversofdecarbonisationofthebuildi
852、ngssectorintheNZE(Figure3.27).Thattransformationreliesprimarilyontechnologies12AllCO2emissionsinthissectionrefertodirectCO2emissionsunlessotherwisespecified.TheNZEalsopursuesreductionsinemissionslinkedtoconstructionmaterialsusedinbuildings.Theseembodiedemissionsarecutby40%persquaremetreofnewfloorare
853、aby2030,withmaterialefficiencystrategiescuttingcementandsteeluseby50%by2050relativetotodaythroughmeasuresatthedesign,construction,useandendoflifephases.4000800030205020302050NZEAECTWhTwo/threewheelersBusesCarsandvansHeavytrucksElectrolyticHElectricitydemand202030205020302050NZE
854、AECTWhOnroadbatterycapacityIEA. All rights reserved.142 International Energy Agency | Special Report already available on the market, including improved envelopes for new and existingbuildings,heatpumps,energyefficientappliances,andbioclimaticandmaterialefficientbuilding design. Digitalisation and s
855、mart controls enable efficiency gains that reduceemissionsfromthebuildingssectorby350MtCO2by2050.BehaviourchangesarealsoimportantintheNZE,withareductionofalmost250MtCO2in2030reflectingchangesintemperature settings for space heating or reducing excessive hot water temperatures.Additionalbehaviourchan
856、gessuchasgreateruseofcoldtemperatureclotheswashingandlinedrying,facilitatethedecarbonisationof electricitysupply.Thereisscopeforthesereductionstobeachievedrapidlyandatnocost.Figure 3.27 Global direct CO2 emissions reductions by mitigation measure in buildings in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Electri
857、fication and energy efficiency account for nearly 70% of buildings-related emissions reductions through to 2050, followed by solar thermal, bioenergy and behaviour Notes:Activity=changeinenergyservicedemandrelatedtorisingpopulation,increasedfloorareaandincomepercapita.Behaviour=changeinenergyservice
858、demandfromuserdecisions,e.g.changingheatingtemperatures.Avoideddemand=changeinenergyservicedemandfromtechnologydevelopments,e.g.digitalisation.Rapidshiftstozerocarbonreadytechnologiesseetheshareoffossilfuelsinenergydemandinthebuildingssectordropto30%by2030,andto2%by2050intheNZE.Theshareofelectricity
859、intheenergymixreachesalmost50%by2030and66%by2050,upfrom33%in2020(Figure3.28).AllendusestodaydominatedbyfossilfuelsareincreasinglyelectrifiedintheNZE,withtheshareofelectricityinspaceheating,waterheatingandcookingincreasingfromlessthan20%todaytomorethan40%in2050.Districtenergynetworksandlowcarbongases
860、,includinghydrogenbasedfuels,remainsignificantin2050inregionswithhighheatingneeds,denseurbanpopulationsandexistinggasordistrictheatnetworks.BioenergymeetsnearlyonequarterofoverallheatdemandintheNZEby2050,over50%ofbioenergyuseisforcooking,nearlyallinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,where2.7billio
861、n02050GtCO2ActivityBehaviourandavoideddemandEnergyefficiencyElectrificationHydrogenbasedBioenergyOtherrenewablesOtherfuelshifts+29%51%+96%97%MeasuresMitigationmeasuresActivityChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 143 3peoplegainaccesstocleancookingby2030intheNZE.Spac
862、eheatingdemanddropsbytwothirdsbetween2020and2050,drivenbyimprovementinenergyefficiencyandbehaviouralchangessuchastheadjustmentoftemperaturesetpoints.Figure 3.28 Global final energy consumption by fuel and end-use application in buildings in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Fossil fuel use in the buildi
863、ngs sector declines by 96% and space heating energy needs by two-thirds to 2050, thanks mainly to energy efficiency gains Note:Otherincludesdesalinationandtraditionaluseofsolidbiomasswhichisnotallocatedtoaspecificenduse.ZerocarbonreadybuildingsTheNZEpathwayforthebuildingssectorrequiresastepchangeimp
864、rovementintheenergyefficiencyandflexibilityofthestockandacompleteshiftawayfromfossilfuels.Toachievethis,morethan85%ofbuildingsneedtocomplywithzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodesby2050(Box3.4).Thismeansthatmandatoryzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodesforallnewbuildingsneedtobeintroducedinallregionsby203
865、0,andthatretrofitsneedtobecarriedoutinmostexistingbuildingsby2050toenablethemtomeetzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodes.Retrofitratesincreasefromlessthan1%peryeartodaytoabout2.5%peryearby2030inadvancedeconomies:thismeansthataround10milliondwellingsareretrofittedeveryyear.Inemergingmarketanddevelopinge
866、conomies,buildinglifetimesaretypicallylowerthaninadvancedeconomies,meaningthatretrofitratesby2030intheNZEarelower,ataround2%peryear.Thisrequirestheretrofittingof20milliondwellingsperyearonaverageto2030.Toachievesavingsatthe lowestcostand tominimisedisruption,retrofitsneedtobecomprehensiveandoneoff.2
867、550750302020205020302020EJSpaceheatingWaterheatingSpacecoolingLightingCookingAppliancesOtherCoalOilNaturalgasHydrogenElectricityDistrictenergyRenewablesTraditionaluseofByfuelByenduseEndusesFuelsbiomassIEA. All rights reserved.144 International Energy Agency | Special Report Box 3.4 Toward
868、s zero-carbon-ready buildings Achieving decarbonisation of energy use in the sector requires almost all existingbuildingstoundergoasingleindepthretrofitby2050,andnewconstructiontomeetstringentefficiencystandards.Buildingenergycodescoveringnewandexistingbuildingsarethefundamentalpolicyinstrumenttodri
869、vesuchchanges.Buildingenergycodescurrentlyexistorareunderdevelopmentinonly75countries,andcodesinaround40ofthesecountriesaremandatoryforboththeresidentialandservicessubsectors.IntheNZE,comprehensivezerocarbonreadybuildingcodesareimplementedinallcountriesby2030atthelatest.Whatisazerocarbonreadybuildin
870、g?Azerocarbonreadybuildingishighlyenergyefficientandeitherusesrenewableenergydirectly, or uses an energy supply that will be fully decarbonised by 2050, such aselectricityordistrictheat.Thismeansthatazerocarbonreadybuildingwillbecomeazerocarbon building by 2050, without any further changes to the bu
871、ilding or itsequipment.Zerocarbonreadybuildingsshouldadjusttouserneedsandmaximisetheefficientandsmart use of energy, materials and space to facilitate the decarbonisation of othersectors.Keyconsiderationsinclude: Scope.Zerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodesshouldcoverbuildingoperations(scope1and2)aswell
872、asemissionsfromthemanufacturingofbuildingconstructionmaterialsandcomponents(scope3orembodiedcarbonemissions). Energyuse.Zerocarbonreadyenergycodesshouldrecognisetheimportantpartthat passive design features, building envelope improvements and high energyperformance equipment play in lowering energy d
873、emand, reducing both theoperatingcostofbuildingsandthecostsofdecarbonisingtheenergysupply. Energysupply.Wheneverpossible,newandexistingzerocarbonreadybuildingsshouldintegratelocallyavailablerenewableresources,e.g.solarthermal,solarPV,PVthermalandgeothermal,toreducetheneedforutilityscaleenergysupply.
874、Thermal or battery energy storage may be needed to support local energygeneration. Integrationwithpowersystems.Zerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodesneedbuildingstobecomeaflexibleresourcefortheenergysystem,usingconnectivityandautomationtomanagebuildingelectricitydemandandtheoperationofenergystoragedevic
875、es,includingEVs. Buildingsandconstructionvaluechain.Zerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodesshould also target netzero emissions from material use in buildings. Materialefficiencystrategiescancutcementandsteeldemandinthebuildingssectorbymorethanathirdrelativetobaselinetrends,andembodiedemissionscanbefurth
876、erreduced by more robust uptake of biosourced and innovative constructionmaterials.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 145 3HeatingandcoolingBuildingenvelopeimprovementsinzerocarbonreadyretrofitandnewbuildingsaccountforthemajorityofheatingandcoolingenergyintensityreductionsin
877、theNZE,butheatingandcoolingtechnologyalsomakesasignificantcontribution.SpaceheatingistransformedintheNZE,withhomesheatedbynaturalgasfallingfromnearly30%ofthetotaltodaytolessthan0.5%in2050,whilehomesusingelectricityforheatingrisefromnearly20%ofthetotaltodayto35%in2030andabout55%in2050(Figure3.29).Hig
878、hefficiencyelectricheatpumpsbecometheprimarytechnologychoiceforspaceheatingintheNZE,withworldwideheatpumpinstallationspermonthrisingfrom1.5milliontodaytoaround5millionby2030and10millionby2050.Hybridheatpumpsarealsousedinsomeofthecoldestclimates,butmeetnomorethan5%ofheatingdemandin2050.Figure 3.29 Gl
879、obal building and heating equipment stock by type and useful space heating and cooling demand intensity changes in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.By 2050, over 85% of buildings are zero-carbon-ready, reducing average useful heating intensity by 75%, with heat pumps meeting over half of heating needs
880、Notes:ZCRBreferstobuildingsmeetingzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodes.Otherforbuildingenvelopereferstoenvelopesthatdonotmeetzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodes.Otherforheatingequipmentstockincludesresistiveheaters,andhybridandgasheatpumps.Notallbuildingsarebestdecarbonisedwithheatpumps,however,andbioe
881、nergyboilers,solarthermal,districtheat,lowcarbongasesingasnetworksandhydrogenfuelcellsallplayaroleinmakingtheglobalbuildingstockzerocarbonreadyby2050.Bioenergymeets10%ofspaceheatingneedsby2030andmorethan20%by2050.Solarthermalisthepreferredrenewabletechnologyforwaterheating,especiallywhereheatdemandi
882、slow;intheNZEitmeets 35% of demand by 2050, up from 7% today. District heat networks remain anattractive option for many compact urban centres where heat pump installation isimpractical,intheNZEtheyprovidemorethan20%offinalenergydemandforspaceheatingin2050,upfromalittleover10%today.255075
883、0400202020302050Index(2020=100)BillionmRetrofitZCRBNewZCRBOtherHeatingCoolingBuildingenvelopeIntensity (rightaxis):02050BillionunitsCoalandoilGasDistrictheatBiomassSolarthermalHydrogenHeatpumpsOtherHeatingequipmentstockIEA. All rights reserved.146 International Energy Agency | Special Rep
884、ort Therearenonewcoalandoilboilerssoldgloballyfrom2025intheNZE.Salesofgasboilersfallbymorethan40%fromcurrentlevelsby2030andby90%by2050.By2025intheNZE,anygasboilersthataresoldarecapableofburning100%hydrogenandthereforearezerocarbonready.Theshareoflowcarbongases(hydrogen,biomethane,syntheticmethane)in
885、gasdistributedtobuildingsrisesfromalmostzeroto10%by2030toabove75%by2050.Buildingsthatmeetthestandardsofzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodesdrivedowntheneednotonlyforspaceheatingbutalsoforspacecoolingthefastestgrowingendusein buildings since 2000. Space cooling represented only 5% of total buildings en
886、ergyconsumptionworldwidein2020,butdemandforcoolingislikelytogrowstronglyinthecomingdecadeswithrisingincomesandahotterclimate.IntheNZE,60%ofhouseholdshaveanairconditionerin2050,upfrom35%in2020.Highperformancebuildingenvelopes,includingbioclimaticdesignsandinsulation,canreducethedemandforspacecoolingb
887、y3050%,whileprovidinggreaterresilienceduringextremeheatevents.IntheNZE,electricitydemandforspacecoolinggrows annuallyby1%toreach2500TWhin 2050.Without2000TWhofsavingsfromresidentialbuildingenvelopeimprovementsandhigherefficiencyequipment,spacecoolingdemandwouldbealmosttwiceashigh.Appliancesandlighti
888、ngElectricappliancesandlightingbecomemuchmoreefficientoverthenextthreedecadesintheNZEthankstopolicymeasuresandtechnicaladvances.By2025intheNZE,over80%ofall appliances and air conditioners sold in advanced economies are the best availabletechnologiestodayinthesemarkets,andthisshareincreasesto100%byth
889、emid2030s.Inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,whichaccountforoverhalfofappliancesandairconditionersby2050,theNZEassumesawaveofpolicyactionoverthenextdecadewhichleadsto80%ofequipmentsoldinthesemarketsin2030beingasefficientasthebestavailabletechnologiesinadvancedeconomiestoday,increasingtocloseto10
890、0%by2050(Figure3.30).Theshareoflightemittingdiode(LED)lampsintotallightbulbsalesreaches100%by2025inallregions.Minimumenergyperformancestandardsarecomplementedbyrequirements for smart control of appliances to facilitate demandside response in allregions.Energyuseinbuildingswillbeincreasinglyfocusedon
891、electric,electronicandconnectedequipmentandappliances.Theshareofelectricityinenergyconsumptioninbuildingsrisesfrom33%in2020toaroundtwothirdsin2050intheNZE,withmanybuildingsincorporatingdecentralised electricity generation using local solar PV panels, battery storage and EVchargers.Thenumberofresiden
892、tialbuildingswithsolarPVpanelsincreasesfrom25millionto240millionoverthesameperiod.IntheNZE,smartcontrolsystemsshiftflexibleusesofelectricity in time to correspond with generation from local renewables, or to provideflexibilityservicestothepowersystem,whileoptimisedhomebatteryandEVchargingallowhouseh
893、oldstointeractwiththegrid.Thesedevelopmentshelpimproveelectricitysupplysecurityandlowerthecostoftheenergytransitionbymakingiteasierandcheapertointegraterenewablesintothesystem.Chapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 147 3Figure 3.30 Global change in electricity demand by end-use
894、in the buildings sector IEA.Allrightsreserved.Energy efficiency is critical to mitigate electricity demand growth for appliances and air conditioning, with savings more than offsetting the impact of electrifying heat 3.7.2 KeymilestonesanddecisionpointsTable 3.5 Key milestones in transforming global
895、 buildings sector CategoryNewbuildings From2030:allnewbuildingsarezerocarbonready.Existingbuildings From2030:2.5%ofbuildingsareretrofittedtobezerocarbonreadyeachyear.Category202020302050BuildingsShareofexistingbuildingsretrofittedtothezerocarbonreadylevel85%Shareofzerocarbonreadynewbuildingsconstruc
896、tion5%100%100%HeatingandcoolingStockofheatpumps(millionunits)1806001800Milliondwellingsusingsolarthermal2504001200Avoidedresidentialenergydemandfrombehaviourn.a.12%14%AppliancesandlightingAppliances:unitenergyconsumption(index2020=100)1007560Lighting:shareofLEDinsales50%100%100%EnergyaccessPopulatio
897、nwithaccesstoelectricity(billionpeople)7.08.59.7Populationwithaccesstocleancooking(billionpeople)5.18.59.7EnergyinfrastructureinbuildingsDistributedsolarPVgeneration(TWh)32022007500EVprivatechargers(millionunits)2700302020ActivityElectrificationEfficiencyBehaviour2050ThousandTWhHeatneedsA
898、ppliancesSpacecoolingLighting+101%+37%93%9%IEA. All rights reserved.148 International Energy Agency | Special Report Neartermgovernmentdecisionsarerequiredforenergycodesandstandardsforbuildings,fossil fuel phase out, use of lowcarbon gases, acceleration of retrofits and financialincentivestoencourag
899、einvestmentinbuildingsectorenergytransitions.Decisionswillbemosteffectiveiftheyfocusondecarbonisingtheentirevaluechain,takingintoaccountnotonlybuildingsbutalsotheenergyandinfrastructurenetworksthatsupplythem,aswellaswiderconsiderationsincludingtheroleoftheconstructionsectorandurbanplanning.Suchdecis
900、ionsarelikelytobringwiderbenefits,notablyinreducingfuelpoverty.Neartermgovernmentactionisneededtoensurethatzerocarbonreadybuildingsbecomethenewnormacrosstheworldbefore2030forbothnewconstructionandretrofits.Thisrequires governments to act before 2025 to ensure that zerocarbonready compliantbuildingen
901、ergycodesareimplementedby2030atthelatest.Whilethisgoalappliestoallregions,waystoachievezerocarbonreadybuildingsvarysignificantlyacrossregionsandclimate zones, and the same is true for heating and cooling technology strategies.Governmentsshouldconsiderpavingthewaybymakingpublicbuildingszerocarbonread
902、yinthecomingdecade.Governmentswillneedtofindwaystomakenewzerocarbonreadybuildingsandretrofitsaffordable and attractive to owners and occupants by overcoming financial barriers,addressingsplitincentivebarriersandminimisingdisruptiontobuildinguse.Buildingenergyperformancecertificates,greenleaseagreeme
903、nts,greenbondfinancingandpayasyousavemodelscouldallplayapart.Makingzerocarbonreadybuildingretrofitsacentralpillarofeconomicrecoverystrategiesintheearly2020sisanoregretsactiontojumpstartprogresstowardsazeroemissionsbuildingsector.Foregoingtheopportunitytomakeenergyuseinbuildingsmoreefficientwoulddriv
904、eupelectricitydemandlinkedtoelectrificationofenergyuseinthebuildingssectorandmakedecarbonisingtheenergysystemsignificantlymoredifficultandmorecostly(Box3.5).Box 3.5 What would be the impact of global retrofit rates not rising to 2.5%? DecarbonisingheatinginexistingbuildingsintheNZErestsuponadeepretr
905、ofitofthemajority of the existing building stock. Having almost all buildings meetzerocarbonreadybuildingenergycodesby2050wouldrequireretrofitratesof2.5%eachyearby2030,upfromlessthan1%today.Retrofitscanbedisruptiveforoccupants,requirehighupfrontinvestmentandmayfacepermittingdifficulties.Theseissuesm
906、akeachieving the required pace and depth of retrofits in the coming years the biggestchallengefacingthebuildingssector.Anydelayinreaching2.5%ofannualretrofitsby2030wouldrequiresuchasteepsubsequentrampupasto makeretrofittingthevastmajorityofbuildingsby2050virtuallyimpossible.Modellingindicatesthatade
907、layoftenyearsintheaccelerationofretrofitting,wouldincreaseresidentialspaceheatingenergydemandby25%andspaceChapter 3 | Sectoral pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 149 3coolingdemandbymorethan20%,translatingtoa20%increaseinelectricitydemandin2050relativetotheNZE(Figure3.31).Thiswouldputmorestraino
908、nthepowersector,whichwouldneedtoinstallmorelowcarbongenerationcapacity.PoliciesandfuelswitchingwouldstilldrivedownfossilfueldemandintheDelayedRetrofitCase,butanadditional15EJoffossilfuelswouldbeburnedby2050,emitting1GtofCO2.Figure 3.31 Global residential space heating and cooling energy demand in th
909、e NZE and Delayed Retrofit Case IEA.Allrightsreserved.Delays in the ramp up of retrofit rates and depth would be almost impossible to catch up, placing further strain on the power sector and pushing up fossil fuel demand Governmentsneedtoestablishpoliciesforcoalandoilboilersandfurnacesforspaceandwat
910、erheating,whichintheNZEarenolongeravailableforsalefrom2025.Theyalsoneedtotakeactiontoensurethatnewgasboilersareabletooperatewithlowcarbongases(hydrogenready)indecarbonisedgasnetworks.Thisputsapremiumontheavailabilityofcompellingalternativestothetypesofboilersbeingphasedout,includingtheuseofheatpumps
911、,efficientwoodstoves(usingsustainablesuppliesofwood),districtenergy,solarPV,solarthermalandotherrenewableenergytechnologies.Whichalternativesarebestwilldependtosomeextentonlocalconditions,butelectrificationwillbethemostenergyefficient and costeffective lowcarbon option in most cases, and decarbonisi
912、ng andexpandingdistrictenergynetworksislikelytomakesensewheredensitiesallow.Theuseofbiomethaneorhydrogeninexistingorupgradedgasnetworksmaybethebestoptioninareaswheremoreefficientalternativesarenotpossible.Governmentsalsofacedecisionsonminimumenergyperformancestandards(MEPS).TheNZEseesallcountriesint
913、roduceMEPSforallmainappliancecategoriessetatthemoststringentlevelsprevailinginadvancedeconomiesby2025atthelatest.Amongothers,thiswouldmeanendingthesaleofincandescent,halogenandcompactfluorescentlampsbythat36902520302035204020452050EJNZEDelayedRetrofitCaseFossilfuelsElectricityanddistricth
914、eatIEA. All rights reserved.150 International Energy Agency | Special Report time.SettingMEPSattherightlevelwillrequirecarefulplanning;internationalcollaborationtoalignstandardsandobjectivescouldplayahelpfulroleinkeepingcostsdown.ThesystemicnatureoftheNZEmeansthatstrategiesandpoliciesforbuildingswil
915、lworkbestiftheyarealignedwiththosebeingadoptedforpowersystems,urbanplanningandmobility.ThiswouldhelptoensurethesuccessfulscalingupofbuildingintegratedPVtechnologies,batterystorageandsmartcontrolstomakebuildingsactiveserviceproviderstogrids.Itwould also help to foster the deployment of smart EV charg
916、ing infrastructure. Policiesincentivisingdenseandmixeduseurbanplanningcoupledwitheasyaccesstolocalservicesandpublictransportcouldreducerelianceonpersonalvehicles(seeChapter2).Therearealso links between buildings strategies and measures to reduce the embodied carbonemissionsofnewconstruction,whichfal
917、lsby95%by2050intheNZE.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 151 Chapter4Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions Economy:InourNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZE),globalCO2emissionsreachnetzeroby2050andinvestmentrisesacrosselectricity,lowemissionsfuels,infrastructur
918、eandendusesectors.Cleanenergyemploymentincreasesby14millionto2030,butemploymentinoil,gasandcoaldeclinesbyaround5million.Therearevaryingresultsfordifferentregions,withjobgainsnotalwaysoccurringinthesameplace,ormatchingthesameskillset,asjoblosses.Theincreaseinjobsandinvestmentstimulateseconomicoutput,
919、resultinginanetincreaseinglobalGDPto2030.Butoilandgasrevenuesinproducereconomiesare80%lowerin2050thaninrecentyearsandtaxrevenuesfromretailoilandgassalesinimportingcountriesare90%lower. Energyindustry:Thereisamajorcontractioninfossilfuelproduction,butcompaniesthat produce these fuels have skills and
920、resources that could play a key role indevelopingnewlowemissionsfuelsandtechnologies.Theelectricityindustryscalesuptomeetdemandrisingovertwoandahalffoldto2050andbecomesmorecapitalintensive, focusing on renewables, sources of flexibility and grids. Large energyconsumingcompanies,vehiclemanufacturersa
921、ndtheirsuppliersadjustdesignsandretoolfactorieswhileimprovingefficiencyandswitchingtoalternativefuelsupplies. Forcitizenswholackaccesstoelectricityandcleancooking,theNZEdeliversuniversalaccessby2030.ThiscostsaroundUSD40billionayearoverthenextdecadeandaddslessthan0.2%toCO2emissions.Forcitizenstheworl
922、dover,theNZEbringsprofoundchanges,andtheiractivesupportisessentialifitistosucceed.Aroundthreequartersof behavioural changes in the NZE can be directly influenced or mandated bygovernmentpolicies.Thecostofenergyisalsoanimportantissueforcitizens,andtheproportionofdisposablehouseholdincomespentonenergy
923、overtheperiodto2050remains stable in emerging market and developing economies, despite a largeincreaseindemandformodernenergyservices. Government action is central to achieve netzero emissions globally by 2050; itunderpinsthedecisionsmadebyallotheractors.Fourparticularpointsareworthstressing.First,t
924、heNZEdependsonactionsthatgofarbeyondtheremitofenergyministers,andrequiresacoordinatedcrossgovernmentapproach.Second,thefallinoilandgasdemandintheNZEmayreducesometraditionalenergysecurityrisks,buttheydonotdisappear,whilepotentialnewvulnerabilitiesemergefromincreasingrelianceonelectricitysystemsandcri
925、ticalminerals.Third,acceleratedinnovationisneeded. The emissions cuts to 2030 in the NZE can be mostly achieved withtechnologiesonthemarkettoday,butalmosthalfofthereductionsin2050dependontechnologiesthatarecurrentlyunderdevelopment.Fourth,anunprecedentedlevelofinternationalcooperationisneeded.Thishe
926、lpstoaccelerateinnovation,develop international standards and facilitate new infrastructure to link nationalmarkets.WithoutthecooperationassumedintheNZE,thetransitiontonetzeroemissionswouldbedelayedbydecades.S U M M A R YIEA. All rights reserved.152 International Energy Agency | Special Report4.1 In
927、troductionAchievingnetzeroemissionsby2050isamonumentaltask,especiallyagainstabackdropofincreasing economic and population growth. It calls for an unwavering focus from allgovernments,workingtogetherwithindustriesandcitizens,toensurethatthetransitiontoglobalnetzeroemissionsproceedsinacoordinatedwaywi
928、thoutdelay.Inthischapter,welookatwhatthechangesthatdelivernetzeroemissionsgloballyby2050intheNZEwouldmeanfortheeconomy,theenergyindustry,citizensandgovernments.Figure 4.1 Selected global milestones for policies, infrastructure and technology deployment in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.There are mult
929、iple milestones on the way to global net-zero emissions by 2050. If any sector lags, it may prove impossible to make up the difference elsewhere. 5055402020202520302035204020452050GtCOBuildingsTransportIndustryElectricityandheatOther2045150 Mtlowcarbonhydrogen850GWelectrolysers435Mtlowcar
930、bonhydrogen3000GWelectrolysers4GtCO2capturedPhaseoutofunabatedcoalinadvancedeconomies2030Universalenergyaccess60%ofglobalcarsalesareelectric1020GWannualsolarandwindadditionsAllnewbuildingsarezerocarbonreadyMostnewcleantechnologiesinheavyindustrydemonstratedatscaleAllindustrialelectricmotorsalesarebe
931、stinclassNonewICEcarsales2035OverallnetzeroemissionselectricityinadvancedeconomiesMostappliancesandcoolingsystemssoldarebestinclass50%ofheavytrucksalesareelectric7.6GtCO2capturedNonewunabatedcoalplantsapprovedfordevelopment20212025Nonewsalesoffossilfuelboilers2040Morethan90%ofheavyindustrialproducti
932、onislowemissions2050Almost70%ofelectricitygenerationgloballyfromsolarPVandwindMorethan85%ofbuildingsarezerocarbonready50%ofheatingdemandmetbyheatpumpsPhaseoutofallunabatedcoalandoilpowerplantsNetzeroemissionselectricityglobally50%offuelsusedinaviationarelowemissionsAround90%ofexistingcapacityinheavy
933、industriesreachesend ofinvestmentcycle50%ofexistingbuildingsretrofittedtozerocarbonreadylevelsNonewoilandgasfieldsapprovedfordevelopment;nonewcoalminesormineextensionsChapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 153 4WiderangingmeasuresandregulationsintheNZEhelptoinfluenceorchanget
934、hepurchasesthatindividualsmake,thewaytheyheatandcooltheirhomes,andtheirmeansoftransport.Manyindustries,especiallythosethatarecurrentlyinvolvedintheproductionofenergyorarelargescaleusersofenergy,alsofacechange.Someoftheshiftsforindividualsandindustriesmaybeunpopular,underscoringthefactthatitisessenti
935、altoensurethattheenergytransitionistransparent,justandcosteffective,andtopersuadecitizensoftheneedforreform.Thesechangesdeliversignificantbenefits.Therearearound790millionpeoplewhodonothaveaccesstoelectricitytodayand2.6billionpeoplewhodonothaveaccesstocleancookingoptions.TheNZEshowshowemissionsreduc
936、tionscangohandinhandwitheffortstoprovideuniversalaccesstoelectricityandcleancooking,andtoimproveairquality.Itprovidessignificantopportunitiestoo,withcleanenergytechnologiesprovidingmanynewbusiness opportunities and jobs, and with innovations that stimulate new industrialcapacities.Underpinningalloft
937、hesechangesaredecisionstakenbygovernments.Thiswillrequirewholeheartedbuyinfromalllevelsofgovernmentandfromallcountries.Themagnitudeofthechangesrequiredtoreachglobalnetzeroemissionsby2050arenotwithinthepowerofgovernmentenergyorenvironmentdepartmentsalonetodeliver,norwithinthepowerofindividualcountrie
938、s.Itwillinvolveanunprecedentedlevelofglobalcollaboration,withrecognition of and sensitivity to differences in the stagesof development of individualcountries, and an appreciation of the difficulties faced by particular communities andmembersofsociety,especiallythosewhomaybenegativelyaffectedbythetra
939、nsitiontonetzeroemissions.IntheNZE,governmentsstartbysettingunequivocallongtermtargets,ensuringthatthesearefullysupportedfromtheoutsetbyexplicit,neartermtargetsandpolicymeasuresthatclearlysetoutthepathway,andthatrecogniseeachcountrysuniquestarting conditions, to support the deployment of new infrast
940、ructure and technologies(Figure4.1).4.2 Economy4.2.1 InvestmentandfinancingThetransitiontonetzeroemissionsby2050requiresasubstantialrampupintheinvestmentofelectricity,infrastructureandtheendusesectors.Thelargestincreaseoverthenextdecadeisinelectricitygeneration:annualinvestmentincreasesfromaboutUSD0
941、.5trillionoverthepastfiveyearstoUSD1.6trillionin2030(Figure4.2).By2030,annualinvestmentinrenewablesintheelectricitysectorisaroundUSD1.3trillion,slightlymorethanthehighestleveleverspentonfossilfuelsupply(USD1.2trillionin2014).AnnualinvestmentincleanenergyinfrastructureincreasesfromaroundUSD290billion
942、overthepastfiveyearstoaboutUSD880billionin2030.Thisisforelectricitynetworks,publicelectricvehicle(EV)chargingstations,hydrogenrefuellingstationsandimportandexportterminals,directaircapture and CO2 pipelines and storage facilities. Annual investment in lowcarbontechnologiesinendusesectorsrisesfromUSD
943、530billioninrecentyearstoUSD1.7trillionIEA. All rights reserved.154 International Energy Agency | Special Report in2030.1Thisincludesspendingondeepretrofittingofbuildings,transformationofindustrialprocesses,andthepurchaseofnewlowemissionsvehiclesandmoreefficientappliances.After2030,annualelectricity
944、generationinvestmentfallsbyonethirdto2050.AlotofinfrastructureforalowemissionselectricitysectorisestablishedwithinthefirstdecadeoftheNZE,andthecostofrenewablescontinuestodeclineafter2030.Inendusesectors,therearecontinuedincreasesininvestmentinEVs,carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)andhydrogenu
945、seinindustryandtransport,andmoreefficientbuildingsandappliances.GlobalinvestmentinfossilfuelsupplyfallssteadilyfromaboutUSD575billiononaverageoverthepastfiveyearstoUSD110billionin2050intheNZE,withupstreamfossilfuelinvestmentrestrictedtomaintainingproductionatexistingoilandnaturalgasfields.Thisinvest
946、mentreflectsthefactthatfossilfuelsarestillusedin2050intheNZEinprocesseswhere they are paired with CCUS, in nonemitting processes (such as petrochemicalmanufacturing), and in sectors where emissions reductions are most challenging (withemissionsoffsetbycarbondioxideremoval).Investmentinlowemissionsfu
947、elsincreasesmorethanthirtyfoldbetween2020and2050,reachingaboutUSD135billionin2050.Thisissplitroughlyequallybetweentheproductionofhydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels,andtheproductionofbiofuels.Overthe202150periodintheNZE,annualaveragetotalenergysectorinvestmentasashareofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isaround1%h
948、igherthanoverthepastfiveyears.Theprivate sector is central to finance higher investment needs. It requires enhancedcollaborationbetweendevelopers,investors,publicfinancialinstitutionsandgovernments.Collaborationwillbeespeciallyimportantoverthenextfivetotenyearsforthedevelopmentoflargeinfrastructurep
949、rojectsandfortechnologiesinthedemonstrationorprototypephasetodaysuchassomehydrogenandCCUSapplications.Companiesandinvestorshavedeclaredstrong interest to invest in clean energy technologies, but turning interest into actualinvestmentatthelevelsrequiredintheNZEalsodependsonpublicpolicies.Someobstacle
950、stoinvestmentneedtobetackled.Manyemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies are reliant on public sources to finance energy projects and new industrialfacilities.Insomecases,improvementsinregulatoryandpolicyframeworkswouldfacilitatetheinternationalflowoflongtermcapitaltosupportthedevelopmentofbothnewandex
951、istingcleanenergytechnologies.TherapidgrowthininvestmentintransportandbuildingsintheNZEpresentsadifferentkindofchallengeforpolicymakers.Inmanycases,anincreaseincapitalspendingforanefficientapplianceorlowemissionsvehiclewouldbemorethanoffsetbylowerexpenditureonfuelsandelectricityovertheproductlifetim
952、e,butsomelowincomehouseholdsandsmallandmediumenterprisesmaynotbeabletoaffordtheupfrontcapitalrequired.1InvestmentlevelspresentedinthisreportincludeabroaderaccountingofefficiencyimprovementsinbuildingsanddifferfromthatreportedintheIEAWorldEnergyInvestmentreport(IEA,2020a).Enduseefficiencyinvestmentsa
953、retheincrementalcostofimprovingtheenergyperformanceofequipmentrelativetoaconventionaldesign.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 155 4Figure 4.2 Global average annual energy investment needs by sector and technology in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Investment increases rapi
954、dly in electricity generation, infrastructure and end-use sectors. Fossil fuel investment drops sharply, partly offset by a rise in low-emissions fuels. Notes:CCUS=carboncapture,utilisationandstorage;EV=electricvehicle.Infrastructureincludeselectricitynetworks,publicEVcharging,CO2pipelinesandstorage
955、facilities,directaircaptureandstoragefacilities,hydrogenrefuellingstations,andimportandexportterminalsforhydrogen.4.2.2 EconomicactivityThe energy transition required for netzero emissions by 2050 will affect all economicactivitiesdirectlyorindirectly.IncoordinationwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund,w
956、ehavemodelledthemediumtermglobalmacroeconomicimpactofthechangesintheenergy0.51.01.52.02003030303140204150OilNaturalgasCoalLowemissionsfuelsFossilfuelswithoutCCUSFossilfuelswithCCUSNuclearRenewablesBatterystorageElectricityg
957、ridsEVchargersHydrogeninfrastructureDirectaircaptureCOtransportandstorageRenewablesHydrogenEfficiencyElectrificationCCUSElectricityTrillionUSD(2019)FuelsEnduseInfrastructureIEA. All rights reserved.156 International Energy Agency | Special Report sectorthatoccurintheNZE.Thisanalysisshowsthatthesurge
958、inprivateandgovernmentspending on clean energy technologies in the NZE createsa large number of jobs andstimulateseconomicoutputintheengineering,manufacturingandconstructionindustries.ThisresultsinannualGDPgrowththatisnearly0.5%higherthanthelevelsintheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)2duringlatterhalfof
959、the2020s(Figure4.3).3Figure 4.3 Change in annual growth rate of global GDP in the NZE relative to the STEPS IEA.Allrightsreserved.The surge in government and private investment in the NZE has a positive impact on global GDP, but there are large differences between regions Notes:GDP=grossdomesticprod
960、uct.Reductioninrentsstemmainlyfromlowerfossilfuelincome.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonIMF.Therearelargedifferencesinmacroeconomicimpactsbetweenregions.ThedeclineinfossilfueluseandpricesresultsinafallinGDPintheproducereconomies,4whererevenuesfromoilandgassalesoftencoveralargeshareofpublicspendingoneducati
961、on,healthcareandotherpublicservices.Thedropinoilandgasdemand,andtheconsequentfallininternationalpricesforoilandgas,causenetincomeinproducereconomiestodroptohistoriclows(Figure4.4).Somecountrieswiththelowestcostoilresources(includingmembersofthe2TheIEAStatedPoliciesScenarioistheprojectionfortheglobal
962、energysystembasedonthepoliciesandmeasuresthatgovernmentsaroundtheworld havealreadyputinplaceandonannouncedpoliciesasexpressedinofficialtargetsandplans,suchasNationallyDeterminedContributionsputforwardundertheParisAgreement(seeChapter1).3Theestimatedgeneralequilibriummacroeconomicimpactoftheincreasei
963、npublicandprivateinvestmentand the reduction in oilrelated revenue contained in the NZE has been provided by the InternationalMonetaryFundusingitsGlobalIntegratedMonetaryandFiscalModel(GIMF).4Producereconomiesarelargeoilandgasexportersthatrelyonhydrocarbonrevenuestofinanceasignificantproportionofthe
964、irnationalbudgets,includingcountriesintheMiddleEast,RussiaandtheCaspianregion.0.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%202125202630PrivateinvestmentGovernmentinvestmentReductioninrentNetchangeChapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 157 4Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPE
965、C) gain market share in thesecircumstances,buteventheywouldseelargefallsinrevenues.Structuralreformswouldbeneededtoaddressthesocietalchallenges,includingthosetoacceleratetheprocessofreforming inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and to speed up moves to use hydrocarbonresourcestoproducelowemissionsfuel
966、s,e.g.hydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels(seesection4.3.1).Figure 4.4 Income from oil and gas sales in producer economies in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Structural reforms and new sources of revenue are needed in producer economies, but these are unlikely to compensate fully for a large drop in oil and
967、gas income ThemacroeconomiceffectsoftheNZEareveryuncertain.Theydependonahostoffactorsincluding:howgovernmentexpenditureisfinanced;benefitsfromimprovementstohealth;changesinconsumerbills;broadimpactofchangesinconsumerbehaviour;andpotentialforproductivityspilloversfromacceleratedenergyinnovation.Nonet
968、heless,impactsarelikelytobelowerthanassessmentsofthecostofclimatechangedamages(OECD,2015).Itisalsolikelythatacoordinated,orderlytransitioncanbeexecutedwithoutmajorglobalsystemicfinancialimpacts,butthiswillrequirecloseattentionfromgovernments,financialregulatorsandthecorporatesector.4.2.3 EmploymentE
969、mploymentintheenergysectorshiftsmarkedlyintheNZEinresponsetochangesininvestmentandspendingonenergy.Weestimatethattodayroughly40millionpeoplearoundtheworldworkdirectlyintheoil,gas,coal,renewables,bioenergyandenergynetworkindustries(IEA,2020b).IntheNZE,cleanenergyemploymentincreasesby14million0.40.81.
970、21.62.020040060080098024150ThousandUSDpercapitaBillionUSD(2019)OilNaturalgasPercapitaincome(rightaxis)IEA. All rights reserved.158 International Energy Agency | Special Report to2030,whileemploymentinoil,gasandcoalfuelsupplyandpowerplantsdeclinesbyaround5m
971、illion,leadingtoanetincreaseofnearly9millionjobs(Figure4.5).Figure 4.5 Global energy sector employment in the NZE, 2019-2030 IEA.Allrightsreserved.Overall employment in the energy sector increases by almost 9 million to 2030 as jobs created in clean energy sectors outpace losses in fossil fuels Jobs
972、createdwouldnotnecessarilybeinthesameareawherejobsarelost,plustheskillsetsrequiredforthecleanenergyjobsmaynotbedirectlytransferable.Joblosseswouldbemostpronounced in communities that are heavily dependent on fossil energy production ortransformationactivities.Evenwherethenumberofdirectenergyjobslost
973、issmall,theimpactonthelocaleconomymaybesignificant.Governmentsupportwouldalmostcertainlybeneededtomanagethesetransitionsinajust,peoplecentredway.Inpreparation,abetterunderstandingofcurrentenergyindustryemploymentisneeded.Ausefulactionwouldbefor governments to adopt more detailed surveying approaches
974、 for energy industryemployment,suchasthoseusedintheUSEnergy&EmploymentReport(NASEOandEnergyFuturesInitiative,2021).Inadditiontothe14millionnewcleanenergyjobscreatedintheNZE,othernewjobsarecreatedbychangesinspendingonmoreefficientappliances,electricandfuelcellvehicles,andbuildingretrofitsandenergyeff
975、icientconstruction.Thesechangeswouldrequireafurther16millionworkers,meaningthattherewouldbe30millionmorepeopleworkingincleanenergy,efficiencyandlowemissionstechnologiesby2030intheNZE(Figure4.6).5Investment in electricity generation, electricity networks, EV manufacturing and energyefficiency are amo
976、ng the areas that will open up new employment opportunities. Forexample,jobsinsolarandwindmorethanquadrupleintheNZEovercurrentlevels.Nearlytwothirdsofworkersinthesesectorsby2030intheNZEwouldbehighlyskilledandthe5Thisincludesnewjobsandjobsfilledbymovingcurrentemploymentfromonetypeofproductiontoanothe
977、r.020192030MillionjobsBioenergyElectricityCoalOilandgasLossesGrowthChapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 159 4majorityrequiresubstantialtraining.Inaddition,withthemorethandoublingoftotalenergyinvestment,newemploymentopportunitieswillariseinassociatedareassuchaswho
978、lesaletrading,financialandlegalservices.Inmanycasesitmaybepossibletoshiftworkerstonewproductlineswithinthesamecompany,forexampleinvehiclemanufacturingasproductionreconfigurestoEVs.However,therewouldbelargerrisksforspecialisedsupplychaincompaniesthatprovideproductsandservices,e.g.internalcombustionen
979、ginesthatarereplacedbynewcomponentssuchasbatteries.Figure 4.6 New workers in clean energy and related sectors and shares by skill level and occupation in the NZE and the STEPS in 2030 IEA.Allrightsreserved.About 30 million new workers are needed by 2030 to meet increased demand for clean energy, eff
980、iciency, and low-emissions technologies; over half are highly skilled positions Note:EVs=electricvehicles.ThenewjobscreatedintheNZEtendtohavemoregeographicflexibilityandawiderdistributionthanisthecasetoday.Around40%arejobslocatedclosetowheretheworkisbeingdone,e.g.buildingefficiencyimprovementsorwind
981、turbineinstallation,andtheremainingarejobstiedtomanufacturingsites.Todaythemanufacturingcapacityforanumberofcleanenergytechnologies,suchasbatteriesandsolarphotovoltaicpanels,isconcentratedinparticularareas,notablyChina.TherapidincreaseindemandforcleanenergytechnologiesintheNZErequiresnewproductionca
982、pacitytocomeonlinethatcouldbelocatedinanyregion.Thosecountriesandcompaniesthatmovefirstmayenjoystrategicadvantagesincapturingburgeoningdemand.102030STEPSNZEGridsPowergenerationEVsBioenergyproductionEfficiencyEnduserenewablesInnovativetechnologiesAdditional workers incleanenergy andrelatedsectors(mil
983、lions)SkilllevelOccupation20%40%60%80%100%Professional38%Construction23%High65%Medium27%Low8%Positions byoccupationandskilllevelintheNZEManufacturing28%Other12%IEA. All rights reserved.160 International Energy Agency | Special Report 4.3 Energyindustry4.3.1 OilandgasTheenergytransitionenvisionedinth
984、eNZEinvolvesamajorcontractionofoilandgasproductionwithfarreachingimplicationsforallthecompaniesthatproducethesefuels.Oildemandfallsfromaround90millionbarrelsperday(mb/d)in2020to24mb/din2050,whilenaturalgasdemandfallsfrom3900billioncubicmetres(bcm)toaround1700bcm.Nofossilfuelexplorationisrequiredinth
985、eNZEasnonewoilandnaturalgasfieldsarerequiredbeyondthosethathavealreadybeenapprovedfordevelopment.Thisrepresentsaclearthreattocompanyearnings,buttherearealsoopportunities.Theresourcesandskillsoftheoilandgasindustryareagoodmatchwithsomeofthenewtechnologiesneededtotackleemissionsinsectorswherereduction
986、sarelikelytobemostchallenging,andtoproducesomeofthelowemissionsliquidsandgasesforwhichthereisarapidincreaseindemandintheNZE(seeChapter2).Bypartneringwithgovernmentsandotherstakeholders,theoilandgasindustrycouldplayaleadingroleindevelopingthesefuelsandtechnologiesatscale,andinestablishingnewbusinessm
987、odels.Theoilandgasindustryishighlydiverse,andvariouscompaniescouldpursueverydifferentstrategiesinthetransitiontonetzeroemissions.Minimisingemissionsfromcoreoilandgasoperations however should be a firstorder priority for all oil and gas companies. Thisincludestacklingmethaneemissionsthatoccurduringop
988、erations(theyfallby75%between2020and2030intheNZE)andeliminatingflaring.Companiesshouldalsoelectrifyoperationsusingrenewableelectricitywhereverpossible,eitherbypurchasingelectricityfromthegridorbyintegratingoffgridrenewableenergysourcesintoupstreamfacilitiesortransportinfrastructure. Producers that c
989、an demonstrate strong and effective action to reduceemissionscancrediblyarguethattheiroilandgasresourcesshouldbepreferredoverhigheremissionsoptions.Someoilandgascompaniesmaychoosetobecome“energycompanies”focusedonlowemissionstechnologiesandfuels,includingrenewableelectricity,electricitydistribution,
990、EVchargingandbatteries.Severaltechnologiesthatarecriticaltotheachievementofnetzeroemissions,suchasCCUS,hydrogen,bioenergyandoffshorewind,lookespeciallywellsuitedtosomeoftheexistingskills,competenciesandresourcesofoilandgascompanies. Carboncapture,utilisationandstorage.Theoilandgasindustryisalreadyth
991、egloballeaderindevelopinganddeployingCCUS.Ofthe40milliontonnes(Mt)ofCO2capturedtoday at largescale facilities, around threequarters is captured from oil and gasoperations,whichoftenproduceconcentratedstreamsofCO2thatarerelativelyeasyandcosteffectivetocapture(IEA,2020c).Theoilandgasindustryalsohasthe
992、largescaleengineering,pipeline,subsurfaceandprojectmanagementskillsandcapabilitiestohandlelargevolumesofCO2andtohelpscaleupthedeploymentofCCUS.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 161 4 Lowemissions hydrogen and hydrogenbased fuels. Oil and gas companies couldcontribute to
993、developing and deploying lowemissions hydrogen in several ways(IEA,2019a).Nearly40%ofhydrogenproductionin2050intheNZEisfromnaturalgasinfacilitiesequippedwithCCUS,providinganimportantopportunityforcompaniesandcountriestoutilisetheirnaturalgasresourcesinawaythatisconsistentwithnetzeroemissions.Oftheto
994、taloutputof530Mtofhydrogenin2050,about30%isprocessedinto ammonia and synthetic fuels (equivalent to around 7.5mboe/d). Thetransformationprocessesinvolvedhavemanypotentialsynergieswiththeskillsandequipmentusedinoilandgasprocessingandrefining.Oilandgascompaniesalsohavelongexperienceoftransportingliqui
995、dsandgasesbypipelineandships. Advanced biofuels and biomethane. The production of advanced biofuels growssubstantially in the NZE, but this depends critically on continued technologicalinnovation.ManyoilandgascompanieshaveactiveR&Dprogrammesintheseareasandcouldbecomeleadingproducers.Biomethanealowem
996、issionsalternativetonaturalgascanbeproducedinlargecentralisedfacilities,whichcouldbeagoodfitwiththeknowledgeandtechnicalexpertiseofexistinggasproducers(IEA,2020d). Offshorewind.About40%ofthelifetimecostsofastandardoffshorewindprojectinvolvesignificantsynergieswiththeoffshoreoilandgassector(IEA,2019b
997、).Theoilandgasindustryhasconsiderableexperienceofworkinginoffshorelocations,whichcouldbeofvalueintheconstructionoffoundationsandsubseastructuresforoffshorewindfarms,especiallywhenusingvesselsduringinstallationandoperation.Theexperienceofmaintainingsafetystandardsinoilandgascompaniescouldalsobehelpfu
998、lduringmaintenanceandinspectionofoffshorewindfarmsoncetheyareinoperation.Oil and gas companies are wellplaced to accelerate the pace of development anddeploymentofthesetechnologies,andtogainacommercialedgeoverothercompanies.IntheNZE,investmentinlowemissionstechnologiessuitedtotheskillsandexpertiseof
999、oilandgascompaniesexceedsthatintraditionaloilandgasoperationsby2030.Totalcapitalspending on these technologies and on traditional oil and gas operations averagesUSD650billionperyearover202150,justlessthanannualinvestmentinoilandgasprojectsbetween2016and2020(Figure4.7).Notalloilandgascompanieswillcho
1000、osetofollowastrategyofdiversifyingintoothertypesofenergy.Forexample,itisfarfromcertainthatnationaloilcompanieswillbechargedbytheirstateownerstodiversifyanddeveloplowemissionsenergysourcesoutsidetheircoreareaofactivity;othercompaniesmaydecidesimplytoconcentrateonsupplyingoilandnaturalgasascleanlyande
1001、fficientlyaspossible,andtoreturnincometoshareholders.Whatisclear,however,isthatnooilandgascompanywouldbeunaffectedbytheNZEandthatallpartsoftheindustryneedtodecidehowtorespond(IEA,2020e).IEA. All rights reserved.162 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 4.7 Annual average investment in
1002、oil and gas and low-emissions technologies with synergies for the oil and gas industry in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Investment in low-emissions technologies suited to the skills and expertise of oil and gas companies exceeds investment in traditional operations by 2030 Note:CCUS=carboncapture,ut
1003、ilisationandstorage.4.3.2 CoalTheprecipitousdeclineincoaluseprojectedintheNZEwouldhavemajorimplicationsforthefutureofminingcompaniesandcountrieswithlargeexistingproductioncapacities.Around470milliontonnesofcoalequivalent(Mtce)ofcoalusedintheNZEin2050isinfacilitiesequippedwithCCUS(80%ofglobalcoaldema
1004、ndin2050),whichpreventsanevensharperdeclineindemand.ButnonewcoalminesormineextensionsareneededintheNZE.Retrainingandregionalrevitalisationprogrammeswouldbeessentialtoreducethesocialimpactofjoblossesatthelocallevelandtoenableworkersandcommunitiestofindalternative livelihoods. There could also be oppo
1005、rtunities to locate new clean energyfacilities,includingthenewprocessingfacilitiesthatareneededforcriticalminerals,intheareasmostaffectedbymineclosures.Forminingcompanies,however,thecontractionincoaldemandintheNZEcouldbeoffsetbytheneedtoincreaseminingofotherrawminerals,includingthosevitaltomanyclean
1006、energytechnologies,suchascopper,lithiumandnickel(IEA,2021a).GlobaldemandforthesecriticalmineralsrisesrapidlyintheNZE(Figure4.8).Forexample,demandforlithiumforuseinbatteriesexpandsbyafactorof30by2030,whiledemandforrareearths,primarilyusedformakingEVmotorsandwindturbines,increasesbyafactoroftenby2030.
1007、Criticalmineralresourcesarenotalwayslocatedinthesamelocationsorcountriesasexistingcoalmines,buttheskillsandexperienceofminingcompanieswillbeessentialtoensurethatthesupplyofthesemineralsisabletomatchdemandatreasonableprices.Bythe2040s,thesizeoftheglobalmarketforthesemineralsapproachesthatforcoaltoday
1008、.200400600800200303140204150BillionUSD(2019)OilNaturalgasCCUSHydrogenBioenergyOffshorewindOilandnaturalgasLowemissionstechnologiesChapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 163 4Figure 4.8 Global value of coal and selected critical minerals in the
1009、 NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.The market for critical minerals approaches that of coal today in the 2040s Notes:Includestotalrevenueforcoalandforselectedcriticalmineralsusedincleanenergytechnologies.Thepricesofcriticalmineralsarebasedonconservativeassumptionsaboutcostincreases(arounda10%20%increasefrom
1010、currentlevelsto2050).4.3.3 ElectricityGettingtonetzeroemissionscallsforamassiveexpansionoftheelectricitysectortopowertheneedsofagrowingglobaleconomy,theelectrificationofendusesthatpreviouslyusedfossilfuels,andtheproductionofhydrogenfromelectrolysis.Whileelectricitydemandincreasesmorethantwoandahalft
1011、imes,therapidtransformationoftheindustrymeansthattotalelectricitysupplycoststriplefrom2020to2050intheNZE,raisingaveragecostsperunitofelectricitygenerationmodestly(Figure4.9).Theelectricitysupplyindustryalsobecomesmuchmorecapitalintensive,acceleratingarecenttrend.Theshareofcapitalintotalcostsrisesfro
1012、mlessthan60%in2020(alreadytenpercentagepointshigherthanin2010)toabout80%in2050.Thisislargelyduetoamassiveincreaseinrenewableenergyandthecorrespondingneedformorenetworkcapacityandsourcesofflexibility,includingbatterystorage.Inthelate2020sand2030s,theupgradingandreplacementofexisting solarandwindcapac
1013、ityastheycometotheendoftheiroperatinglivesalsoboostscapitalneeds.6NewnuclearpowercapacityadditionsaddfurthercapitalspendingintheNZE.Therisingcapitalintensityoftheelectricityindustryincreasestheimportanceoflimitingriskfornewinvestmentandensuringsufficientrevenuesinallyearsforgridoperatorstofundrising
1014、investmentneedsapointunderlinedbythefinancialdifficultiesexperiencedbysomenetworkcompaniesin2020duetodepressedelectricitydemandresultingfromtheCovid19crisis(IEA,2020f).6Theytypicallyneedreplacingafter2530yearsofoperation,whereasmanyconventionalhydropower,nuclearandcoalplantsoperatefarlongeralbeitwit
1015、hperiodicadditionalinvestment.0500BillionUSD(2019)CoalRareearthSiliconManganeseCobaltGraphiteNickelLithiumCopperCriticalminerals2020203020402050IEA. All rights reserved.164 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 4.9 Global electricity supply costs by component in the NZE IEA.
1016、Allrightsreserved.Electricity system costs triple to 2050, raising average supply costs modestly; the massive growth of renewables makes the industry more capital intensive Notes:Electricitysupplycostsincludeallthedirectcoststoproduceandtransmitelectricitytoconsumers.Batterystoragesystemsareincluded
1017、inpowerplantcapitalrecovery.Therisingshareofrenewablesintheelectricitygenerationmixhasimportantimplicationsfor the design of electricity markets. When the shares of solar, wind, other variablerenewablesandnuclearpowerreachhighlevels,availableelectricitysupplyatnomarginalcostisoftenaboveelectricityde
1018、mand,resultinginawholesalepriceofelectricitythatiszeroorevennegative.By2050,withoutchangesinelectricitymarketdesign,about7%ofwindandsolaroutputintheNZEwouldbeaboveandbeyondwhatcanbeintegrated(andsocurtailed),andtheshareofzeropricehoursintheyearwouldincreasetoaround30%inmajormarketsfromclosetozerotod
1019、ay,despitetheactiveuseofdemandresponse.IftheshareofrenewablesintheelectricitygenerationmixistoriseasenvisionedintheNZE,itwouldthereforebehighlydesirabletoeffectsignificantchangesinthedesignofelectricitymarketssoastoprovidesignalsforinvestment,includinginvestmentinsourcesofflexibilitysuchasbatterysto
1020、rageanddispatchablepowerplants.Theincreaseinelectricityuseinevitablyraisesassociatedcosts.OperatingandmaintainingpowerplantsworldwidecostsclosetoUSD1trillionin2050intheNZE,twoandahalftimesthelevelin2020.In2020,upkeepatfossilfuelpowerplantsaccountedforUSD150billion,andrenewablesrequirednearlyasmuch,m
1021、ostlyforhydropower.By2050,thecostofoperatingandmaintainingrenewablesreachesUSD780billion,mostitneededforwindandsolarphotovoltaics(PV)asaresultoftheirmassivescalingup:offshorewindaloneaccountsforUSD90billion.204060806200402050USDperMWh(2019)GridsPowerplantcapitalrecoveryPowerpla
1022、ntoperationsandmaintenanceFuelCOpriceAveragecost(rightaxis)TrillionUSD(2019)20%40%60%80%100%2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 165 4ThesharpreductionoffossilfueluseintheelectricityindustryandlowerfuelpricesmeanthatcostsrelatedtofuelandCO2pricesares
1023、ignificantlyreduced.Thiscontinuesarecenttrenddrivenbynearrecordlownaturalgaspricesinmanymarkets.EvenwithrisingCO2pricesovertime,therapiddecarbonisationofelectricitymeansthatfuelandCO2makeupadecliningshareoftotalcosts,fallingfromaboutonequarterin2020to5%in2050.Thebalance of fuel costs shifts towards
1024、lowemissions sources, mainly nuclear power andbioenergy(includingwithCCUS),thoughsomestillremainsrelatedtonaturalgasandcoalusedinpowerplantsequippedwithCCUS.Onechallengeinthiscontextiswhattodoaboutthecoalfiredpowerplantsinoperation.In2020,over2100gigawatts(GW)ofpowerplantsworldwideusedcoaltoproducee
1025、lectricityandheat,andtheyemittednearly30%ofallenergyrelatedCO2emissions.Optionsincluderetrofitting coalfired power plants with CCUS technologies, cofiring with biomass orammonia;repurposingcoalplantstofocusonprovidingflexibility;and,wherefeasible,phasing them out. In the NZE, all unabated coalfired
1026、power plants are phased out inadvancedeconomiesby2030andinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesby2040.Asaresult,emissionsfromcoalfiredpowerplantsfallfrom9.8gigatonnes(Gt)in2020to3.0Gtin2030andtojust0.1Gtby2040(residualemissionsfromcoalwithCCUSplants).7Anotherchallengeisrelatedtothescaleofcapacityreti
1027、rementsenvisagedandassociatedsiterehabilitation,startingwithcoal.Thepaceofretirementofcoalfiredpowerplantsover202050isnearlytriplethatofthepastdecade.Decommissioningateachsitecanoftenlastadecadeandentailsignificantcost,andmayinvolveclosingamineaswell.Insomecases,itmaybefinanciallyattractivetobuildar
1028、enewableenergyprojectonthesamesite,takingadvantageofthegridconnectionandlimitingthecostofrehabilitation.Thousandsofnaturalgasfiredandoilfiredpowerplantsarealsoretiredby2050,thoughthesesitesareoftenstrategicallylocatedonthegridandmanyarelikelytobereplaceddirectlywithbatterystoragesystems.The large fl
1029、eet of ageing nuclear reactors in advanced economies means theirdecommissioningincreases,despitemanyreactorlifetimeextensions.IntheNZE,annualaveragenuclearretirementsgloballyare60%higheroverthenext30yearsthaninthelastdecade.Eachnucleardecommissioningprojectcanspandecades,withcostsrangingfromseveralh
1030、undredmilliondollarstowelloverUSD1billionforlargereactors(NEA,2016).4.3.4 EnergyconsumingindustriesThechangesintheNZEwouldhaveanenormousimpactonindustriesthatmanufacturevehiclesandtheirmaterialandcomponentsuppliers.Around95%ofallthecarsandnearlyall of the trucks sold worldwide in 2020 were conventio
1031、nal vehicles with an internalcombustionengine.IntheNZE,about60%ofglobalcarsalesin2030areEVs,and85%of7ACO2capturerateof90%isassumed,thoughhigherratesaretechnicallypossiblewithreducedefficienciesandadditionalcosts(IEA,2020g).IEA. All rights reserved.166 International Energy Agency | Special Report hea
1032、vydutytruckssoldin2040areEVsorfuelcellvehicles.IntheNZE,vehiclecomponentsuppliersandvehiclemanufacturersalikeretoolfactories,changedesignstoincorporatebatteries and fuel cells, and adjust supply chains to minimise the lifecycle emissionsintensities of vehicles. This provides opportunities to redesig
1033、n existing parts andmanufacturingprocessestoimproveefficiencyandlowercosts.TherapidincreaseinEVsalesintheNZErequiresanimmediatescaleupofnewsupplychainsforbatteriesaswellasrechargingandlowemissionsrefuellinginfrastructure.IntheNZE,battery production capacity increases to more than 6.5terawatthours (T
1034、Wh) by 2030,comparedwithlessthan0.2TWhin2020.AnydelayinexpandingbatterymanufacturingcapacitywouldhaveadetrimentalimpactontherolloutofEVsandslowcostreductionsforothercleanenergytechnologiesthatbenefitintheNZEfromhavingsimilarmanufacturingprocessesandknowhow(suchasfuelcellvehiclesandelectrolysers).Ina
1035、viationandshipping,liquidlowemissionsfuelsarecentraltocutemissions.Switchingtosomeofthesewouldhavelittleimpactonvesseldesign:theuseofhydrogenbasedfuelsorbiofuelsinshippingwouldonlyrequirechangestothemotorandfuelsystem,andbiokerosene or synthetic kerosene can operate with existing aircraft. New bunke
1036、ring andrefuellinginfrastructureareneededintheNZE,however,andtheuseoftheselowemissionsfuels also requires new safety and standardisation standards, protocols for permitting,construction and design, as well as international regulation, monitoring, reporting andverificationoftheirproductionanduse.Inhe
1037、avyindustrialsectorssteel,cementandchemicalsmostdeepemissionsreductiontechnologiesarenotavailableonthemarkettoday.IntheNZE,materialproducerssoondemonstratenearzeroemissionprocesses,aidedbygovernmentrisksharingmechanisms,andstarttoadapttheirexistingproductionassets.Formultinationalcompanies,thisinclu
1038、desdevelopingtechnologytransferstrategiestorolloutprocessesacrossplants.Internationalcooperationwouldhelptoensurealevelplayingfieldforall.Withincountries,effortsfocusonindustrialhubsinordertoaccelerateemissionsreductionsacrossmultipleindustrialsectorsbypromotingeconomiesofscalefornewinfrastructure(s
1039、uchasCO2transportandstorage)andsuppliesoflowemissionsenergy.Materials producers work with governments in the NZE to create an internationalcertification system for nearzero emission materials to differentiate them fromconventionalones.Thiswouldenablebuyersofmaterialssuchasvehiclemanufacturersandcons
1040、truction companies to enter into commercial agreements to purchase nearzeroemissionsmaterialsatapricepremium.Inmostcases,thepremiumwouldresultinonlyamodestimpactonthefinalpriceoftheproductpricegiventhatmaterialsgenerallyaccountforasmallportionofmanufacturingcosts(MaterialEconomics,2019).Chapter 4 |
1041、Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 167 44.4 Citizens4.4.1 EnergyrelatedSustainableDevelopmentGoalsAninclusiveandpeoplecentredtransitioniskeytotheworldmovingrapidly,collectivelyandconsistentlytowardnetzeroemissionsbymidcentury.TheNZEachievestheUnitedNationsenergyrelatedSustainableDeve
1042、lopmentGoals(SDGs)ofuniversalaccesstocleanmodernenergyby2030(SDG7.1)andreducingprematuredeathscausedbyairpollution(SDG3.9). The technologies, options and measures used to achieve full access to lowemissionselectricityandcleancookingsolutionsby2030intheNZEalsohelptoreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfr
1043、omhouseholdenergyuse.EnergyaccessAbout790millionpeopleworldwidedidnothaveaccesstoelectricityin2020,mostofthemlivinginsubSaharanAfricaanddevelopingAsia.Around2.6billionpeopledidnothaveaccesstocleancookingoptions:35%ofthemwereinsubSaharanAfrica,25%inIndiaand15%inChina.Alackofaccesstoenergynotonlyimped
1044、eseconomicdevelopment,butalsocausesseriousharmtohealthandisabarriertoprogressongenderequalityandeducation.8Figure 4.10 People gaining access to electricity by type of connection in emerging market and developing economies in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.More than 80% of people gaining access to ele
1045、ctricity by 2030 are supplied renewable power and just over half via off-grid systems 8Householdsrelyingonthetraditionaluseofbiomassforcookingdedicatearound1.4hourseachdaycollectingfirewoodandseveralhourscookingwithinefficientstoves,aburdenlargelybornebywomen(IEA,2017).20040060080052030Mi
1046、llionpeopleStandalonerenewablesStandaloneMinigridsrenewablesMinigridsGridrenewablesGridWithoutaccessIEA. All rights reserved.168 International Energy Agency | Special Report Around45%ofthosewholackaccesstoelectricityby2030gainitviaaconnectiontoamaingrid, while the rest are served by minigrids (30%)
1047、and standalone solutions (25%)(Figure4.10).Almostalloffgridorminigridsolutionsare100%renewable.Decentralisedsystemsthatrelyondieselgenerators,whicharealsodeployedinsomegridconnectedsystemstocompensateforlowreliability,arephasedoutlaterandreplacedwithsolarstorage systems. Achieving full access does n
1048、ot lead to a significant increase in globalemissions:in2030itaddslessthan0.2%toCO2emissions.Achievingfullaccesstoelectricityalsobringsefficiencygainsandacceleratestheelectrificationofappliances,whichbecomecriticaltoemissionsreductionsinbuildingsafter2030inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Forclea
1049、ncooking,55%ofthosegainingaccessby2030intheNZEdosothroughimprovedbiomasscookstoves(ICS)fuelledbymodernbiomass,biogasorethanol,25%throughtheuseofliquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG)and20%viaelectriccookingsolutions(Figure4.11).LPGisthemainfueladoptedinurbanareasandICSisthemainoptioninruralareas.TheuseofLPGresu
1050、ltsinaslightincreaseinCO2emissionsin2030butanetreductioninoverallGHGemissionsduetoreducedmethane,nitrousoxidesandblackcarbonemissionsfromthetraditionaluseofbiomass.Inaddition,LPGisincreasinglydecarbonisedafter2030usingbiosourcedbutaneandpropane(bioLPG)producedsustainablyfrommunicipalsolidwaste(MSW)a
1051、ndotherrenewablefeedstocks.ThetechnicalpotentialofbioLPGproductionfromMSWin2050inAfricacouldbeenoughtosatisfythecookingneedsofmorethan750millionpeople(GLPGP,2020;LiquidGasEurope,2021).Figure 4.11 Primary cooking fuel by share of population in emerging market and developing economies in the NZE IEA.A
1052、llrightsreserved.Traditional biomass is entirely replaced with modern energy by 2030, mainly in the form of bioenergy and LPG; by 2050, electricity, bioenergy and bioLPG meet most cooking needs Notes:Modernbioenergyincludesimprovedcookstoves,biogasandethanol.Liquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG)includesfossila
1053、ndrenewablefuel.20%40%60%80%100%202020252030203520402050OtherpollutingTraditionalbiomassModernbioenergyNaturalgasLPGElectricityWithAccessWithoutAccessChapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 169 4Theachievementofuniversalaccesstocleanenergyby2030requiresgovernmentsanddonorstopu
1054、texpandingaccessattheheartofrecoveryplansandprogrammes.Therewouldbe multiple benefits: investing heavily in energy access would provide an immediateeconomicboost,createlocaljobsandbringdurableimprovementstosocialwellbeingbymodernisinghealthservicesandfoodchains.IntheNZE,aroundUSD35billionisspenteach
1055、yearimprovingaccesstoelectricityandalmostUSD7billioneachyearoncleancookingsolutionsforpeopleinlowincomecountriesfromnowto2030.AirpollutionandhealthMorethan90%ofpeoplearoundtheworldareexposedtopollutedairtoday.Suchpollutionledtoaround5.4millionprematuredeathsin2020,underminingeconomicproductivityandp
1056、lacingextrastressonhealthcaresystems.Mostofthesedeathswereinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Justoverhalfwerecausedbyexposuretooutdoorairpollution;theremainderresultedfrombreathingpollutedairindoors,causedmainlybythetraditionaluseofbiomassforcookingandheating.Energyrelatedemissionsofthethreemajo
1057、rairpollutantssulphurdioxide(SO2),nitrogenoxides(NOX)andfineparticulatematter(PM2.5)fallrapidlyintheNZE.SO2emissionsfallby85%between2020and2050,mainlyasaresultofthelargescalephaseoutofcoalfiredpowerplantsandindustrialfacilities.NOXemissionsalsodropbyaround85%asaresultofthe increased use of electrici
1058、ty, hydrogen and ammonia in the transport sector. Theincreaseduptakeofcleancookingfuelsindevelopingcountries,togetherwithairpollutioncontrol measures in industry and transport, results in a 90% drop in PM2.5 emissions(Figure4.12).ThereductioninairpollutionintheNZEleadstoroughlyahalvinginprematuredea
1059、thsin2050comparedwith2020,savingthelivesofabout2millionpeopleperyear,around85%oftheminemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Figure 4.12 Global premature deaths and air pollutant emissions in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Reductions in major air pollutants mean 2 million fewer premature deaths per yea
1060、r Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonIIASA.50MillionpeopleAdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesPrematuredeathsPM2.5SO2NOx2040608020402050Index(2020=100)Changeinairpollutant emissionsIEA. All rights reserved.170 International Energy Agency | Special Report 4.4.2 Affordabi
1061、lityTotalspendingonenergyEnergyaffordabilityisakeyconcernforgovernments,businessesandhouseholds.Globaldirectspendingonenergy,i.e.thetotalfuelbillspaidbyallendusers,whichtotalledUSD6.3trillionin2020,increasesby45%to2030and75%to2050,inlargepartreflectingpopulationandGDPgrowthoverthisperiod.Asashareofg
1062、lobalGDP,thefigureslookratherdifferent:totaldirectspendingonenergyholdssteadyataround8%outto2030(similartotheaverageoverthelastfiveyears),butthendeclinesto6%in2050.Thisdeclineoffsetsasignificant share of the higher cost of buying new, more efficient energyconsumingequipment.Aportionoftheincreaseinen
1063、ergyspendingintheNZEisrelatedtorisingCO2pricesandtheremovalofconsumptionsubsidiesforfossilfuelsandelectricity.CO2pricing(taxesandtradingschemes)paidbyendusersatitspeakgeneratesglobalrevenuesintheNZEofcloseto USD700billion each year between 2030 and 2035, before declining steadily due todecliningover
1064、allemissions:theserevenuescouldberecycledintoeconomiesorotherwiseusedtoimproveconsumerwelfare,particularlyforlowincomehouseholds.TheNZEalsosees the progressive removal of consumption subsidies for fossil fuels, many of whichdisproportionally benefit wealthier segments of the population that use more
1065、 of thesubsidisedfuel.Phasingoutthesubsidieswouldprovidemoreefficientpricesignalsforconsumers,andspurmoreenergyconservationandmeasurestoimproveenergyefficiency.Theimpactofphasingoutsubsidiesonlowerincomehouseholdscouldbeoffsetthroughdirectpaymentschemesorothermeansatloweroverallcoststotheeconomy.Fig
1066、ure 4.13 Global energy spending by fuel in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Total energy spending increases by 75% to 2050, mainly on electricity Note:Other=hydrogenbasedandsyntheticfuels,anddistrictheating.20%40%60%80%100%2010 2020 2030 2040 2050OilproductsNaturalgasCoalElectricityBioenergyOther246810
1067、200402050TrillionUSD(2019)Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 171 4The transformation of the global energy system in the NZE drives a major shift in thecompositionofenergyspending.SpendingonelectricityatUSD2.7trillionin2020(45%oftotalenergyspending)exceededspend
1068、ingonoilproductsforthefirsttimeanditrisestooverUSD8.5trillionin2050(80%oftotalenergyspending)(Figure4.13).Retailelectricitypricesincreaseby50%onaverage,contributingtothetotalincrease.Spendingonoil,whichhasdominatedoverallenergyspendingfordecades,goesintolongtermdeclineinthe2020s,itsshareofspendingfa
1069、llingfrom40%in2020tojust5%in2050.Spendingonnaturalgasandcoalalsodeclinesinthelongterm,offsetbyhigherspendingonlowemissionsfuels.SpendingonbioenergyreachesaboutUSD900billionperyearby2040,whileotherlowemissionsfuels,includinghydrogenbasedproducts,gainafootholdandestablishamarketworthofaroundUSD600bill
1070、ionperyearby2050.HouseholdspendingonenergyDirectspendingbyhouseholdsonenergy,includingforheating,cooling,electricityandfuelforpassengercars,fallsasashareofdisposableincomeintheNZE,thoughtherearelargedifferencesbetweencountries(Figure4.14).Figure 4.14 Average annual household energy bill in the NZE I
1071、EA.Allrightsreserved.The proportion of disposable household income spent on energy is stable in emerging market and developing economies, and drops substantially in advanced economies Note:Hydrogenbasedincludeshydrogen,ammoniaandsyntheticfuels.Inadvancedeconomies,theaverageannualbilldeclinesfromabou
1072、tUSD2800in2020toUSD2300 in 2030, thanks to a strong push on energy efficiency and costeffectiveelectrification.Oilproductsmakeupclosetohalfofhouseholdenergybillsin2020,butthisfallsto30%in2030andalmostzeroin2050,duetoarapidshifttoEVsandtodownwardpressureonoilprices.Naturalgasbills,whichmakeupalmost10
1073、%ofthetotaltoday,also1%2%3%4%5%6%500025003000202020302050202020302050USD(2019)HydrogenbasedDistrictheatingBioenergyElectricityCoalNaturalgasOilproductsShareofincomeAdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(rightaxis)IEA. All rights reserved.172 International Energy Agency | Sp
1074、ecial Report falltoalmostzeroin2050withtheelectrificationofheatingandcooking.Electricityrisesfromabout35%ofhouseholdfuelbillsin2020to90%in2050,increasingthesensitivityofhouseholdstoelectricitypricesandconsumption.Increasingincomesmeanthathouseholdspendingonenergyasashareofdisposableincomedropsfrom4%
1075、in2020to2%in2050.Inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,thereisahugeincreaseindemandformodernenergyserviceslinkedtoexpandingpopulations,economicgrowth,risingincomesanduniversalaccesstoelectricityandcleancookingoptions.Asinadvancedeconomies,electricityaccountsforthevastmajorityofenergybillsin2050.The
1076、useofmoreefficientappliancesandequipmentcurbssomeoftheincreaseindemand,buthouseholdbillsstillincreaseintheNZEbyover60%to2030andmorethandoubleby2050.Asapercentageofdisposableincome,however,billsinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesremainaround4%,andtherearelargesocialandeconomicbenefitsfromincreased
1077、energyuse.Figure 4.15 Change in household spending on energy plus energy-related investment in the NZE relative to 2020 IEA.Allrightsreserved.Total household spending on energy increases modestly in emerging market and developing economies, leaving over 90% of additional income available for other u
1078、ses Taking into account additional investment in electricityconsuming equipment such asefficientappliancesandelectricvehicles,spendingonenergyplusrelatedinvestmentisUSD1.30higherperdayperhouseholdgloballyin2050thanin2020intheNZE.Thismodestincreasemeansthatexpenditureonenergymakesupasmallershareofdis
1079、posableincomein2050thanitdoestoday,thoughtheimpactsvarybycountry.Inadvancedeconomies,additionalinvestmentinelectrification,energyefficiencyandrenewableenergycostsaboutUSD750perhouseholdby2030andUSD720in2050,whichisfullyoffsetbyreductionsinthelevelofenergybills(Figure4.15).Inemergingmarketanddevelopi
1080、ngeconomies,a2%1%0%1%2%020302050USD(2019)OtherRenewablesEnergyefficiencyElectrificationEnergybillperNetchangeNetchangeshareofInvestmentrecoveryVariablecostsdisposableincome(rightaxis)householdEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesAdvancedeconomiesChapter 4 | Wider implications of
1081、 achieving net-zero emissions 173 4growingbasketofenergyservicesmeansincreaseduseofenergy,andtotalenergyrelatedhouseholdspendingincreases.Additionalinvestmentmoderatesthechangeinenergybills,with the result that total energyrelated spending takes 2 percentage points more ofhouseholddisposableincomein
1082、2030and1percentagepointmorein2050thantoday.4.4.3 BehaviouralchangesBehaviouralchangesplayanimportantpartinreducingenergydemandandemissionsintheNZE,especiallyinsectorswheretechnicaloptionsforcuttingemissionsarelimitedin2050.Whileitiscitizensandcompaniesthatmodifytheirbehaviour,thechangesaremostlyenab
1083、ledbythepoliciesandinvestmentsmadebygovernments,andinsomeinstances,theyarerequiredbylawsorregulations.TheCovid19pandemichasincreasedgeneralawarenessofthepotentialeffectivenessofbehaviouralchanges,suchasmaskwearing,andworkingandschoolingathome.Thecrisisdemonstratedthatpeoplecanmakebehaviouralchangesa
1084、tsignificantspeedandscaleiftheyunderstandthechangestobejustified,andthatitisnecessaryforgovernmentstoexplainconvincinglyandtoprovideclearguidanceaboutwhatchangesareneededandwhytheyareneeded.Figure 4.16 Emissions reductions from policy-driven and discretionary behavioural changes by citizens and comp
1085、anies in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Three-quarters of the emissions saved by behavioural changes could be directly influenced or mandated by government policies Aroundthreequartersoftheemissionssavedbybehaviouralchangesbetween2020and2050 in the NZE could be directly influenced or mandated by gove
1086、rnment policy(Figure4.16).Theyincludemitigationmeasuressuchasphasingoutpollutingcarsfromlargecities and reducing speed limits on motorways. The other onequarter involves morediscretionarybehaviouralchanges,suchasreducingwastefulenergyuseinhomesand203020402050203020402050MtCOInfluencedorma
1087、ndatedbypoliciesDiscretionarybehaviouralchangesCitizensCompaniesIEA. All rights reserved.174 International Energy Agency | Special Report offices, though even these types of changes could be promoted through awarenesscampaigns and other means. Around 10% of emissions savings directly influenced orma
1088、ndated by government policy would require new or redirected investment ininfrastructure.Forexample,theshiftintheNZEfromregionalflightstohighspeedrailwouldnecessitatebuildingaround170000kilometresofnewtrackgloballyby2050(atriplingof2020levels).Behaviouralchangesmadebycitizensandcompaniesplayaroughlye
1089、qualroleinreducingemissionsintheNZE.Mostchangesinroadtransportandenergysavinginhomeswoulddependonindividuals,whereastheprivatesectorhastheprimaryroleinreducingenergydemand in commercial buildings and pursuing materials efficiency in manufacturing.Companiescanalsoinfluencebehaviouralchangesindirectly
1090、,forexample,bypromotingtheuseofpublictransportbyemployeesthatcommuteorencouragingworkingfromhome.However,asimpledistinctionbetweentheroleforindividualsandcompaniesmasksacomplexunderlyingdynamic:itisultimatelycitizensasconsumersofenergyrelatedgoodsandserviceswhoshapecorporatestrategies,butatthesameti
1091、mecompaniesdomuchtoinfluenceandgenerateconsumerdemandthroughmarketingandadvertising.IntheNZE,consumers and companies move together in adopting behavioural changes, withgovernmentssettingthedirectionofthosechangesandfacilitatingthemviaeffectiveandsustainedpolicysupport.ThebehaviouralchangesintheNZEha
1092、ppentodifferentextentsindifferentregions,andreflectarangeofgeographicalandinfrastructureconstraints,aswellasexistingbehaviouralnormsandculturalpreferences.Incountrieswithlowratesofcarownershiporenergyservicedemandinbuildings,manyofthebehaviouralchangesinadvancedeconomiesinNZEwouldnotberelevantorappr
1093、opriate.Asaresult,aroundhalfoftheemissionssavingsfrombehaviouralchangesareinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,despitearound95%ofactivitygrowthinbuildingsandroadtransportbetween2020and2050occurringthere.Nevertheless, there are significant opportunities in emerging market and developingeconomies fo
1094、r materials efficiency and urban design to decouple growth in economicprosperityandenergyservicesfromincreasesinemissions.Forexample,around85%ofCO2emissionsreductionsfromcementandsteelmakingin2050areduetogainsinmaterialsefficiencyinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Citiesareimportanttothebehaviou
1095、ralchangesintheNZE.Urbandesigncanreducetheaverage city dwellers carbon footprint by up to 60% by shaping lifestyle choices andinfluencingdaytodaybehaviour.Forexample,compactcitieswithclusteredamenitiescanshortenaveragetriplengths;digitalisationcanhelpsharedprivatemobilitytobecomethedefactooptiontoac
1096、commodatemuchofthegrowthinservicedemand;andurbangreeninfrastructurecanreducecoolingdemand(Feyisa,Dons&Meilby,2014).Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 175 44.5 Governments4.5.1 EnergysecurityEnergysecurityisanimportantconsiderationforgovernmentsandthosetheyserve,andthepath
1097、waytonetzeroemissionsmusttakeaccountofit.Concernsaboutenergysecurityhavetraditionallybeenassociatedwithoilandnaturalgassupplies.ThedropinoilandgasdemandandtheincreaseddiversityoftheenergysourcesusedintheNZEmayreducesomerisks,buttheydonotdisappear.Therearealsonewpotentialvulnerabilitiesassociatedwith
1098、theneedtomaintainreliable,flexibleandsecureelectricitysystems,andwiththeincreaseindemandforrawmineralsforcleanenergytechnologies.Improvingenergyefficiencyremainsthecentralmeasureforincreasingenergysecurityevenwithrapidgrowthinlowemissionselectricitygeneration,thesafestenergysuppliesarethosethatareno
1099、tneeded.OilandgassecurityNonewoilandnaturalgasfieldsarerequiredintheNZEbeyondthosealreadyapprovedfordevelopment,andsuppliesbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedinasmallnumberoflowcostproducers.Foroil,OPECsshareofglobaloilsupplygrowsfromaround37%inrecentyearsto52%in2050,alevelhigherthanatanypointinthehistor
1100、yofoilmarkets(Figure4.17).Fornaturalgas,interregionalliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)tradeincreasesfrom420bcmin2020overthenextfiveyearsbutitthenfallstoaround160bcmin2050.Nearlyallexportsin2050comefromthelowestcostandlowestemissionsproducers.Thismeansthattheimportanceofensuringadequatesuppliesofoilandnatural
1101、gastothesmoothfunctioningoftheglobalenergysystemwouldbequantitativelylowerin2050thantoday,butitdoesnotsuggestthattheriskofashortfallinsupplyorsuddenpriceriseisnecessarilygoingtodiminish,andashortfallorsuddenpricerisewouldstillhavelargerepercussionsforanumberofsectors.Figure 4.17 Global oil supply an
1102、d LNG exports by region in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Increased reliance on OPEC and other producer economies suffering from falling oil and gas revenues could pose a risk to supply security in consuming countries 10%20%30%40%50%204060802050ShareofOPEC(rightaxis)Oil (mb/d)OPECNonOPEC10
1103、0200300400500020302050NorthAmericaRussiaAustraliaSoutheastAsiaMiddleEastAfricaOtherLNGexports(bcm)IEA. All rights reserved.176 International Energy Agency | Special Report Evenifthetimingandambitionofemissionreductionpoliciesareclear,thechangesintheNZEclearlyhaveimplicationsforproducersan
1104、dconsumersalike.Manyproducereconomieswouldseeoilandgasrevenuesdroptosomeofthelowesteverlevels(seesection4.2.2).Eveniftheseproducersincreasetheirmarketshare,anddiversifytheireconomiesandsourcesoftaxrevenue,theyarelikelytostruggletofinanceessentialspendingatcurrentlevels.Thiscouldhaveknockoneffectsfor
1105、socialstability,andthatinturncouldpotentiallythreatenthesmoothdeliveryofoilandgastoconsumingcountries.Movesonthepartofproducereconomiestogainmarketshareorafailuretomaintainupstreamoperationswhilemanagingtheextremestrainsthatwouldbeplacedontheirfiscalbalancescouldleadtoturbulentandvolatilemarkets,gre
1106、atlycomplicatingthetaskfacingpolicymakers.ElectricitysecurityTherapidelectrificationofallsectorsintheNZE,andtheassociatedincreaseinelectricitysshareoftotalfinalconsumptionfrom20%in2020tonearly50%in2050,putselectricityevenmoreattheheartofenergysecurityacrosstheworldthanitalreadyis(IEA,2020h).Greaterr
1107、elianceonelectricityhasbothpositiveandnegativeimplicationsforoverallenergysecurity. One advantage for energyimporting countries is that they become moreselfsufficient,sinceamuchhighershareofelectricitysupplyisbasedondomesticsourcesintheNZEthanisthecaseforotherfuels.Howevertheincreasedimportanceofele
1108、ctricitymeans that any electricity system disruption would have larger impacts. Electricityinfrastructureisoftenmorevulnerabletophysicalshockssuchasextremeweathereventsthan pipelines and underground storage facilities, and climate change is likely to putincreasingpressureonelectricitysystems,forexam
1109、plethroughmorefrequentdroughtsthatmightdecreasetheavailabilityofwaterforhydropowerandforcoolingatthermalpowerplants.Theresilienceofelectricitysystemsneedstobeenhancedtomitigatetheserisksandmaintain electricity security, including through more robust contingency planning, withsolutionsbasedondigitalt
1110、echnologiesandphysicalsystemhardening(IEA,2021b).Cybersecuritycouldposeanevengreaterrisktoelectricitysecurityassystemsincorporatemoredigitalisedmonitoringandcontrolsinagrowingnumberofpowerplants,electricitynetworkassetsandstoragefacilities.Policymakershaveacentralparttoplayinensuringthatthecyberresi
1111、lienceofelectricityisenhanced,andthereareanumberofwaysinwhichtheycanpursuethis(IEA,2021c).Maintaining electricity security also requires a range of measures to ensure flexibility,adequacyandreliabilityatalltimes.Enhancedelectricitysystemflexibilityisofparticularimportance as the share of variable re
1112、newables in the generation mix rises. As aconsequence,electricitysystemflexibilityquadruplesgloballyintheNZEinparallelwithamorethantwoandahalffoldincreaseinelectricitysupply.9Aportfolioofflexibilitysourcesincludingpowerplants,energystorageanddemandresponsesupportedbyelectricity9Electricitysystemflex
1113、ibilityisquantifiedherebasedonhourtohourrampingneeds,whichisonlyoneaspectofflexibilitythatalsoincludesactionsonmuchshortertimescalestomaintainfrequencyandotherancillaryservices.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 177 4networksisusedtomatchsupplyanddemandatalltimesoftheyear
1114、,undervaryingweatherconditionsandlevelsofdemand.ThereisasignificantshiftintheNZEfromusingcoalandgasfiredpowerplantsfortheprovisionofflexibilitytotheuseofrenewables,hydrogen,batterystorage,anddemandsideresponse(Figure4.18).Figure 4.18 Electricity system flexibility by source in the NZE IEA.Allrightsr
1115、eserved.To meet four-times the amount of hour-to-hour flexibility needs, batteries and demand response step up to become the primary sources of flexibility Electricitydemandalsobecomesmuchmoreflexibleasaresultoftheuseofdemandresponsemeasures,e.g.toshiftconsumptiontotimeswhenrenewableenergyisplentifu
1116、l.Conventionalsourcesofdemandresponsesuchasmoderatingindustryactivitiesremainimportant,butnewareasofdemandresponsesuchassmartchargingofEVsunlockvaluablenewwaysofsupplementingthem.10AstheEVfleetexpandsintheNZE,EVsprovideasignificantportionoftotalelectricitysystemflexibility.Althoughthetechnologyalrea
1117、dyexists,therolloutofsmartcharginghasbeenslowtodateduetoinstitutionalandregulatorybarriers;thesehurdlesareovercomeintheNZE.Measuresarealsoimplementedtoensurethatthedigitalisationofchargingandothersourcesofflexibilitydoesnotcompromisecybersecurity,andthatpotentialsocialacceptanceissuesareaddressed.En
1118、ergystoragealsoplaysanimportantroleintheprovisionofflexibilityintheNZE.Thedeploymentofbatterystoragesystemsisalreadystartingtoaccelerateandtocontributetothemanagementofshortdurationflexibilityneeds,butthemassivescaleupto3100GWofstorage in 2050 (with four hour duration on average) envisaged in the NZ
1119、E hinges onovercomingcurrentregulatoryandmarketdesignbarriers.Pumpedhydropoweroffersanattractivemeansofprovidingflexibilityoveramatterofhoursanddays,whilehydrogenhas10Smartchargerssharerealtimedatawithacentralisedplatformtoallowsystemoperatorstooptimisechargingprofilesbasedonhowmuchenergythevehiclen
1120、eedsoveraspecifiedspanoftime,howmuchisavailable,thepriceofwholesaleelectricity,gridcongestionandotherparameters.20%40%60%80%100%2050202020502020CoalNaturalgasOilHydrogenbasedNuclearHydroOtherrenewablesBatteriesDemandresponseAdvancedeconomiesEmerging marketanddevelopingeconomiesIEA. All rights reserv
1121、ed.178 International Energy Agency | Special Report thepotentialtoplayanimportantpartinlongertermseasonalstoragesinceitcanbestoredinconvertedgasstoragefacilitiesthathaveseveralordersofmagnitudemorecapacitythanbatterystorageprojects.Dispatchablepowerisessentialtothesecuretransitionofelectricitysystem
1122、s,andintheNZEthiscomesincreasinglyfromlowemissionssources.Hydropowerprovidesasignificantpartof flexibility in many electricity systems today, and this continues in the future, withparticularemphasisonexpandingpumpedhydrofacilities.Nuclearpowerandgeothermalplants,thoughdesignedforbaseloadgeneration,a
1123、lsoprovideadegreeofflexibilityintheNZE,butthereareconstraintsonhowmuchthesesourcescanbeexpanded.Thisleavesanimportantroleforthermalpowerplantsthatareequippedwithcarboncaptureoruselowemissionsfuels.Forexample,theuseofsustainablebiomassorlowemissionsammoniainexistingcoalplantsoffersawayofallowingthese
1124、facilitiestocontinuetocontributetoflexibilityandcapacityadequacy,whileatthesametimereducingCO2emissions.Additionalmeasureswillalsobenecessarytomaintainpowersystemstability(Box4.1).Box 4.1 Power system stability with high shares of variable renewables Stabilityisakeyfeatureofelectricitysecurity,allow
1125、ingsystemstoremaininbalanceandwithstand disturbances such as sudden generator or grid outages. Historically,conventionalgeneratorssuchasnuclear,hydroandfossilfuelshavebeencentraltoelectricitysystemstability,providinginertiawithrotatingmachinesthatallowstoredkineticenergytobeinstantlyconvertedintopow
1126、erincaseofasystemdisturbance,andgeneratingavoltagesignalthathelpsallgeneratorsremainsynchronous.Incontrast,newertechnologiessuchassolarPV,windandbatteriesareconnectedtothesystemthroughconverters.Theygenerallydonotcontributetosysteminertiaandareconfigured as “gridfollowing” units, synchronising to co
1127、nventional generators.Maintainingsystemstabilitywillcallfornewapproachesastheshareofconverterbasedresources,andinparticularvariablerenewables,risesmuchhigherinelectricitysystems.Thereisagrowingbodyofknowledgeandstudiesonstabilityinsystemswithhighsharesof variable renewables. For example, a recent jo
1128、int study by the IEA and RTE, thetransmissionsystemoperatorinFrance,analysestheconditionsunderwhichitwouldbetechnicallyfeasibletointegratehighsharesofvariablerenewablesinFrance(IEA,2021d).Basedonthefindingsofthisstudy: Oneoptiontoensurestabilityforanetzeropowersystemistomaintainaminimumamountofconve
1129、ntionalgenerationfromlowcarbontechnologiesduringhoursofhighsharesVREoutput.Thisapproachtomaintainstabilitycomesatthecostofsolarandwindcurtailmentathighshares. Updatedgridcodescanbeusedtocallforvariablerenewablesandbatteriestoprovidefastfrequencyresponseservices,whichcanhelpreducetheamountofconventio
1130、nalgenerationneededforstability.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 179 4 Synchronouscondensersareabletoprovideinertiawithoutgeneratingelectricity.The technology is already proven at GWscale in Denmark and also in SouthAustralia,butexperienceneedstobeexpandedatlargerscale.
1131、 Gridformingconverterscanallowvariablerenewablesandbatteriestogenerateavoltagesignal,thoughexperiencewiththisapproachneedstomovebeyondmicrogridsandsmallislandstolargeinterconnectedsystems.Demonstrationprojects,stakeholderconsultationsandinternationalcollaborationwillbecriticaltofullyunderstandthemer
1132、itsofeachofthesefourapproachesandthescopeforaportfolioofoptionsthatwouldmostcosteffectivelyachievenetzeroemissionswhilemaintainingelectricitysecurity.Electricitynetworkssupportandenabletheuseofallsourcesofflexibility,balancingdemandandsupplyoverlargeareas.Timelyinvestmentingridstominimisecongestiona
1133、ndexpandthesizeoftheareaswheresupplyanddemandarebalancedwillbecriticaltomakingthebestuseofsolarPVandwindprojects,andensuringaffordableandreliablesuppliesofelectricity.ExpandinglongdistancetransmissionalsomakesakeycontributionintheNZE,sincealackofavailablelandneardemandcentresandotherfactorsmeannewso
1134、urcesofgenerationareoftenlocatedinremoteareas.Itisimportantthatnewtransmissionsystemsarebuiltwithvariable,bidirectionaloperationinmindinordertomaximisetheuseofavailableflexibilitysources,andthatregulatoryandmarketarrangementssupportflexibleconnections between systems. The key value of interconnectio
1135、ns comes fromcomplementary electricity demand and wind patterns: solarPV output is more highlycorrelatedthanwindoverlargeareas.TheNZEseesamajorincreaseindemandforcriticalmineralssuchascopper,lithium,nickel,cobaltandrareearthelementsthatareessentialformanycleanenergytechnologies.Thereareseveralpotent
1136、ialvulnerabilitiesthatcouldhindertheadequatesupplyofthesemineralsandleadtopricevolatility(IEA,2021a).Todaysproductionandprocessingoperationsformanymineralsarehighlyconcentratedinasmallnumberofcountries,makingsuppliesvulnerabletopoliticalinstability,geopoliticalrisksandpossibleexportrestrictions.Inma
1137、nycases, there are also concerns about landuse changes, competition for scarce waterresources,corruptionandmisuseofgovernmentresources,fatalitiesandinjuriestoworkers,andhumanrightsabuses,includingtheuseofchildlabour.Newcriticalmineralprojectscanhavelongleadtimes,sotherapidincreaseindemandintheNZEcou
1138、ldleadtoamismatchintimingbetweensupplyanddemand.Theinternationaltradeandinvestmentregimeiskeytomaintainingreliablemineralsupplies,butpolicysupportandinternationalcoordinationwillbeneededtoensuretheapplicationofrigorousenvironmentalandsocialregulations.IEA. All rights reserved.180 International Energ
1139、y Agency | Special Report 4.5.2 InfrastructureGettingtonetzeroemissionswillrequirehugeamountsofnewinfrastructureandlotsofmodifications to existing assets. Energy infrastructure is transformed in the NZE as allcountries and regions move from systems supporting the use of fossil fuels and thedistribut
1140、ionofconventionallygeneratedelectricitytosystemsbasedlargelyonrenewableelectricityandlowemissionsfuels.Inmanyemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,theprovisionoflargeamountsofinfrastructurewouldbenecessaryinthecomingdecadesinanycase,creatingawindowofopportunitytosupportthetransitiontoanetzeroemission
1141、seconomy.Inallcountries,governmentswillplayacentralroleinplanning,financingandregulatingthedevelopmentofinfrastructure.SomeofthemaininfrastructurecomponentselectricitynetworksandEVcharging,pipelinessystemsforlowemissionsfuelsandCO2,andtransportinfrastructurearediscussedbelow.Therapidincreaseinelectr
1142、icitydemandintheNZEandthetransitiontorenewableenergycallforanexpansionandmodernisationofelectricitynetworks(Figure4.19).Thiswouldrequireasharpreversalintherecenttrendofdeclininginvestment:failuretoachievethiswouldalmostcertainlymaketheenergytransitionfornetzeroemissionsimpossible.Tariffdesignandperm
1143、ittingproceduresalsoneedtoberevisedtoreflectfundamentalchangesintheprovisionandusesofelectricity.Someofthemainconsiderationsinclude: Longdistancetransmission.MostofthegrowthinrenewablesintheNZEcomesfromcentralisedsources.Yetthebestsolarandwindresourcesareofteninremoteregions,requiringnewtransmission
1144、connections.Ultrahighvoltagedirectcurrentsystemsarelikelytoplayanimportantroleinsupportingtransmissionoverlongdistances. Localdistribution.EnergyefficiencygainsinhouseholdsandwideruseofrooftopsolarPVmeansurpluselectricitywillbeavailablemoreoften,whileelectricheatpumpsandresidential EV charging point
1145、s will require electricity to be more widely available.Togetherthesedevelopmentspointtotheneedforsubstantialincreasesindistributionnetworkcapacity. Grid substations. The massive expansion of solar PV and wind requires new gridsubstations: their capacity expands by more than 57000GW in the NZE by 203
1146、0,doublingcurrentcapacityglobally. EVcharging.MajornewpublicchargingnetworksarebuiltintheNZE,includinginworkplaces,highwayservicestationsandresidentialcomplexes,tosupportEVexpansionandlongdistancedrivingonhighways. Digitalisationofnetworks.Withalargeincreaseintheuseofconnecteddevices,thedigitalisati
1147、onofgridassetssupportsmoreflexiblegridoperations,bettermanagementofvariablerenewablesandmoreefficientdemandresponse.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 181 4Figure 4.19 Annual average electricity grid expansion, replacement and substation capacity growth in the NZE IEA.All
1148、rightsreserved.Grid and substation expansion is driven largely by the massive deployment of renewables and electrification of end-uses, with a rising digital share of infrastructure Note:Substationcapacityhereassumesactiveelectricityisequaltoapparentelectricity.Pipelinescontinuetoplayakeyroleinthetr
1149、ansmissionanddistributionofenergyintheNZE: Giventherapiddeclineoffossilfuels,significantinvestmentinnewoilandgaspipelinesarenotneededintheNZE.Howeverinvestmentisneededtolinktheproductionoflowemissionsliquidsandgaseswithconsumptioncentres,andtoconvertexistingpipelinesandassociateddistributioninfrastr
1150、ucturefortheuseoftheselowemissionsfuels.Somelowemissionsfuels,suchasbiomethaneandsynthetichydrogenbasedfuels,canmakeuseofexistinginfrastructurewithoutanymodifications,butpurehydrogenrequiresaretrofitofexistingpipelines.Newdedicatedhydrogeninfrastructureisalsoneededinthe NZE, for example to move hydr
1151、ogen produced in remote areas with excellentrenewableresourcestodemandcentres. TheexpansionofCCUSintheNZErequiresinvestmentinCO2transportandstoragecapacity.By2050,7.6GtofCO2iscapturedworldwide,requiringalargeamountofpipelineandshippinginfrastructurelinkingthefacilitieswhereCO2iscapturedwithstorage s
1152、ites. Industrial clusters, including ports, may offer the best neartermopportunities to build CO2 pipeline and hydrogen infrastructure, as the variousindustriesinthoseclustersusingthenewinfrastructurewouldbeabletosharetheupfrontinvestmentneeds(Figure4.20).20%40%60%2462003140204150Millionk
1153、mRefurbishmentsRenewablesanddemandincreaseShareofdigitalisation(rightaxis)Gridexpansionandreplacements484150ThousandGWGridsubstationcapacitygrowthIEA. All rights reserved.182 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 4.20 Illustrative example of a shared CO2 pipeline
1154、in an industrial cluster IEA.Allrightsreserved.Deployment of technologies like CCUS and hydrogen and their enabling infrastructure would benefit strongly from a cross-sectoral approach in industrial clusters Transformingtransportinfrastructurerepresentsbothachallengeandanopportunity.Thechallengearis
1155、esfromthepotentialincreaseintheenergyandcarbonintensityofeconomicgrowthduringtheinfrastructuredevelopmentphase.11Steelandcementarethetwomaincomponents of virtually all infrastructure projects, but they are also among the mostchallengingsectorstodecarbonise.Theopportunitycomesfromthescopethatexistsin
1156、somecountriestodevelopinfrastructurefromscratchinawaythatiscompatiblewiththenetzerogoal.CountriesundergoingrapidurbanisationtodaycandesignandsteernewinfrastructuredevelopmenttowardshigherurbandensityandhighcapacitymasstransitintandemwithEVchargingandlowemissionsfuellingsystems.Railhasanimportantpart
1157、toplayastransportinfrastructureisdeveloped.TheNZEseeslargescaleinvestmentinallregionsinhighspeedtrainstoreplacebothlongdistancecardrivingandshorthaulaviation.Italsoseeslargescaleinvestmentinallregionsintrack,controlsystems,rollingstockmodernisationandcombinedfreightfacilitiestoimprovespeedandflexibi
1158、lityforjustintimelogisticaloperationsandthussupportashiftoffreightfromroadtorail,especiallyforcontainertraffic.11ThemodellingfortheNZEincorporatestheincreaseinsteelandcementthatisrequiredtobuildadditionaltransport infrastructure (roads, cars and trucks) and energy infrastructure, e.g. power plants a
1159、nd windturbines.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 183 44.5.3 TaxrevenuesfromretailenergysalesTheslumpintheconsumptionoffossilfuelsrequiredtogettonetzeroemissionswouldresultinthelossofalargeamountoftaxrevenueinmanycountries,giventhatfuelssuchasoilbasedtransportfuelsandnat
1160、uralgasareoftensubjecttohighexciseorotherspecialtaxes.Inrecentyears,energyrelatedtaxesaccountedforaround4%oftotalgovernmenttax revenues in advanced economies on average and 3.5% in emerging market anddevelopingeconomies,buttheyprovidedasmuchas10%insomecountries(OECD,2020).Figure 4.21 Global revenues
1161、 from taxes on retail sales of oil and gas in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Tax revenues slump from retail sales of oil and gas Taxrevenuefromoilandnaturalgasretailsalesfallsbycloseto90%between2020and2050intheNZE(Figure4.21).Governmentsarelikelytoneedtorelyonsomecombinationofothertaxrevenuesandpubli
1162、cspendingreformstocompensate.Sometaxationmeasuresfocusedontheenergysectorcouldbeuseful.However,anysuchtaxeswouldneedtobecarefully designed to minimise their impact on lowincome households, as poorerhouseholdsspendahigherpercentageoftheirdisposableincomeonelectricityandheating.Optionsforenergyrelated
1163、taxesinclude: CO2prices.TheseareintroducedinallregionsintheNZE,albeitatdifferentlevelsforcountriesandsectors,whichprovideadditionalrevenuestreams.Thereductioninoilandnaturalgasexcisetaxesismorethancompensatedoverthenext15yearsbyhigherrevenuesfromCO2pricesrelatedtothesefuelspaidbyendusersandothersect
1164、ors,butthesetoofallastheglobalenergysystemmovestowardsnetzeroemissions. Roadfeesandcongestioncharges.Thesewouldhavetheaddedbenefitofdiscouragingdrivingandencouragingswitchingtootherlesscarbonintensivemodesoftransport.2004006008000203020402050BillionUSD(2019)OilexcisetaxNaturalgasexcisetax
1165、IEA. All rights reserved.184 International Energy Agency | Special Report Increasingtaxationonelectricity.Highertaxesonallelectricitysalescouldgeneratesubstantialrevenues,especiallysincelargeincreasesinpriceoftenhavelittleeffectonconsumption.Thismightbecounterproductive,however,asitwouldreducethecos
1166、teffectivenessofbothEVsandheatpumps,whichcouldslowtheiradoption,althoughthisriskcouldbemitigatedbytheintroductionofCO2prices.Naturalgasiscurrentlylesstaxedthantransportfuelsinmostcountries.IntroducingandraisingCO2pricesfornaturalgasusedinbuildings,mostlyforheating,wouldaccelerateenergyefficiencyimpr
1167、ovementsandboostgovernmentrevenues,althoughcarewouldbeneededtoavoiddisproportionatelyimpactinglowincomehouseholds.Taxingnaturalgasused in industry would improve the competitiveness of less carbonintensive fuels andtechnologiessuchashydrogen,butwouldruntheriskofunderminingtheinternationalcompetitiven
1168、ess of energyintensive sectors and carbon leakage in the absence ofcoordinatedglobalactionorbordercarbontaxadjustments.4.5.4 InnovationWithoutamajoraccelerationincleanenergyinnovation,reachingnetzeroemissionsby2050willnotbeachievable.Technologiesthatareavailableonthemarkettodayprovidenearlyallofthee
1169、missionsreductionsrequiredto2030intheNZEtoputtheworldontrackfor netzero emissions by 2050. However, reaching netzero emissions will require thewidespreaduseafter2030oftechnologiesthatarestillunderdevelopmenttoday.In2050,almost50%ofCO2emissionsreductionsintheNZEcomefromtechnologiescurrentlyatdemonstr
1170、ationorprototypestage(Figure4.22).Thisshareisevenhigherinsectorssuchasheavyindustryandlongdistancetransport.Majorinnovationeffortsarevitalinthisdecadesothatthetechnologiesnecessaryfornetzeroemissionsreachmarketsassoonaspossible.Figure 4.22 Global CO2 emissions changes by technology maturity category
1171、 in the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.While the emissions reductions in 2030 mostly rely on technologies on the market, those under development today account for almost half of the emissions reductions in 2050 6045302050GtCOActivityBehaviourMatureMarketuptakeDemonstrationLargeprototypeSmallpr
1172、ototype/labNetreductionsOnthemarketUnderdevelopmentChapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 185 4InnovationcyclesforearlystagecleanenergytechnologiesaremuchmorerapidintheNZEthanwhathastypicallybeenachievedhistorically,andmostcleanenergytechnologiesthathavenotbeendemonstratedats
1173、caletodayreachmarketsby2030atthelatest.Thismeansthetimefromfirstprototypetomarketintroductionisonaverage20%fasterthanthefastestenergytechnologydevelopmentsinthepast,andaround40%fasterthanwasthecaseforsolarPV(Figure4.23).Technologiesatthedemonstrationstage,suchasCCUSincementproductionorlowemissionsam
1174、moniafuelledships,arebroughtintothemarketinthenextthreetofouryears.Hydrogenbasedsteelproduction,directaircapture(DAC)andothertechnologiesatthelargeprototypestagereachthemarketinaboutsixyears,whilemosttechnologiesatsmallprototypestagesuchassolidstaterefrigerantfreecoolingorsolidstatebatteriesdosowith
1175、inthecomingnineyears.Figure 4.23 Time from first prototype to market introduction for selected technologies in the NZE and historical examples IEA.Allrightsreserved.Technology development cycles are cut by around 20% from the fastest developments seen in the past Note:H2=hydrogen;CCUS=carboncapture,
1176、utilisationandstorage;LED=lightemittingdiode;Liion=lithiumion.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCarbonEngineering,2021;Greco,2019;Tenova,2018;Gross,2018;EuropeanCementResearchAcademy,2012;Kamaya,2011;Zemships,2008.Anaccelerationofthismagnitudeisclearlyambitious.Itrequirestechnologiesthatarenotyet available
1177、on the market to be demonstrated very quickly at scale in multipleconfigurationsandinvariousregionalcontexts.Inmostcases,thesedemonstrationsarerunin parallel in the NZE. This is in stark contrast with typical practice in technologydevelopment:learningisusuallytransferredacrossconsecutivedemonstratio
1178、nprojectsindifferentcontextstobuildconfidencebeforewidespreaddeploymentcommences.Theaccelerationthatisneededalsorequiresalargeincreaseininvestmentindemonstrationprojects.IntheNZE,USD90billionismobilisedassoonaspossibletocompleteaportfolio00201020202030HshipCCUSincementproductio
1179、nHdirectreducedironDirectaircaptureSolidstatebatterySolidstatecoolingLEDsWindpowerSolarPVLiionbatterySmallprotoypeLargeprototypeDemonstrationUpto2020:Remainingtimetomarket NZEYears fromprototypetomarket010303020FasthistoricalexamplesIEA. All rights reserved.186 International Energy Agency
1180、 | Special Report ofdemonstrationprojectsbefore2030:thisismuchmorethantheroughlyUSD25billionbudgeted by governments to 2030. Most of these projects are concerned with theelectrification ofenduses,CCUS,hydrogenandsustainablebioenergy, mainlyforlongdistancetransportandheavyindustrialapplications.Incre
1181、asedpublicfundinghelpstomanagetherisksofsuchfirstofakindprojectsandtoleverageprivateinvestmentinresearchanddevelopment(R&D)intheNZE.Thisrepresentsareversalofrecenttrends:governmentspendingonenergyR&Dworldwide,includingdemonstrationprojects,hasfallenasashareofGDPfromapeakofalmost0.1%in1980tojust0.03%
1182、in2019.Publicfundingalsobecomesbetteralignedwiththeinnovationsneededtoreachnetzeroemissions.IntheNZE,electrification,CCUS,hydrogenandsustainablebioenergyaccountfornearlyhalfofthecumulativeemissionsreductionsto2050.Justthreetechnologiesarecriticalinenablingaround15%ofthecumulativeemissionsreductionsi
1183、nthe NZE between 2030 and 2050: advanced highenergy density batteries, hydrogenelectrolysersandDAC.GovernmentsdriveinnovationintheNZEBringing new energy technologies to market can often take several decades, but theimperativeofreachingnetzeroemissionsgloballyby2050meansthatprogresshastobemuchfaster.
1184、Experiencehasshownthattheroleofgovernmentiscrucialinshorteningthetimeneededtobringnewtechnologytomarketandtodiffuseitwidely(IEA,2020i).Thegovernmentroleincludeseducatingpeople,fundingR&D,providingnetworksforknowledgeexchange,protectingintellectualproperty,usingpublicprocurementtoboostdeployment,help
1185、ing companies innovate, investing in enabling infrastructure and setting regulatoryframeworksformarketsandfinance.Knowledgetransferfromfirstmovercountriescanalsohelpintheaccelerationneeded,andisparticularlyimportantintheearlyphasesofadoptionwhennewtechnologiesaretypicallynotcompetitivewithincumbentt
1186、echnologies.Forexample,inthecaseofsolarPV,nationallaboratoriesplayedakeyroleintheearlydevelopmentphaseintheUnitedStates,projectssupporteddirectlybygovernmentinJapancreatedmarketnichesforinitialdeploymentandgovernmentprocurementandincentivepoliciesinGermany,Italy,Spain,UnitedStates,China, Australia a
1187、nd India fostered a global market. Lithiumion (Liion) batteries wereinitiallydevelopedthroughpublicandprivateresearchthattookplacemostlyinJapan,theirfirstenergyrelatedcommercialoperationwasmadepossibleintheUnitedStates,andmassmanufacturingtodayisprimarilyinChina.Manyofthebiggestcleanenergytechnology
1188、challengescouldbenefitfromamoretargetedapproachtospeedupprogress(DiazAnadon,2012;Mazzucato,2018).IntheNZE,concertedgovernment action leverages private sector investment and leads to advances in cleanenergytechnologiesthatarecurrentlyatdifferentstagesofdevelopment. To2030,thefocusofgovernmentactionis
1189、onbringingnewzeroorlowemissionstechnologiestomarket.Forexample,intheNZE,steelstartstobeproducedusinglowemissionshydrogenatthescaleofaconventionalsteelplant,largeshipsstarttobeChapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions 187 4fuelledbylowemissionsammoniaandelectrictrucksbeginoperati
1190、ngonsolidstatebatteries.Inparallel,thereisrapidaccelerationinthedeploymentoflowemissionstechnologiesthatarealreadyavailableonthemarketbutthathavenotyetreachedmass market scale, bringing down the costs of manufacturing, construction andoperatingsuchtechnologiesduetolearningbydoingandeconomiesofscale.
1191、 From2030to2040,technologyadvancesareconsolidatedtoscaleupnascentlowemissions technologies and expand clean energy infrastructure. Clean energytechnologies that are in the laboratory or at small prototype stage today becomecommercial.Forexample,fuelsarereplacedbyelectricityincementkilnsandsteamcrack
1192、ersforhighvaluechemicalsproduction. From2040to2050,technologiesataveryearlystageofdevelopmenttodayareadoptedin promising niche markets. By 2050, clean energy technologies that are atdemonstrationorlargeprototypestagetodaybecomemainstreamforpurchasesandnew installations, and they compete with present
1193、 conventional technologies in allregions.Forexample,ultrahighenergydensitybatteriesareusedinaircraftforshortflights.4.5.5 InternationalcooperationThe pathway to netzero emissions by 2050 will require an unprecedented level ofinternationalcooperationbetweengovernments.Thisisnotonlyamatterofallcountri
1194、esparticipatingineffortstomeetthenetzerogoal,butalsoofallcountriesworkingtogetherin an effective and mutually beneficial manner. Achieving netzero emissions will beextremelychallengingforallcountries,butthechallengesaretoughestandthesolutionsleasteasytodeliverinlowerincomecountries,andtechnicalandfi
1195、nancialsupportwillbeessential to ensure the early stage deployment of key mitigation technologies andinfrastructureinmanyofthesecountries.Withoutinternationalcooperation,emissionswillnotfalltonetzeroby2050.Therearefouraspectsofinternationalcooperationthatareparticularlyimportant(Victor,GeelsandSharp
1196、e,2019). Internationaldemandsignalsandeconomiesofscale.Internationalcooperationhasbeencriticaltothecostreductionsseeninthepastformanykeyenergytechnologies.Itcanaccelerateknowledgetransferandpromoteeconomiesofscale.Itcanalsohelpalignthecreationofnewdemandforcleanenergytechnologiesandfuelsinoneregionw
1197、iththedevelopmentofsupplyinotherregions.Thesebenefitsneedtobeweighedagainst the importance of creating domestic jobs and industrial capacities, and ofensuringsupplychainresilience. Managingtradeandcompetitiveness.Industriesthatoperateinanumberofcountriesneed standardisation to ensure interoperabilit
1198、y. Progress on innovation and cleanenergytechnologydeploymentinsectorssuchasheavyindustryhasbeeninhibitedinthe past by uncoordinated national policies and a lack of internationally agreedIEA. All rights reserved.188 International Energy Agency | Special Report standards.Thedevelopmentofsuchstandards
1199、couldaccelerateenergytechnologydevelopmentanddeployment. Innovation,demonstrationanddiffusion.CleanenergyR&Dandpatentingiscurrentlyconcentratedinahandfulofplaces:UnitedStates,Europe,Japan,KoreaandChinaaccountedformorethan90%ofcleanenergypatentsin201418.Progresstowardsnetzeroemissionswouldbeincreased
1200、bymovingswiftlytoextendexperienceandknowledgeofcleanenergytechnologiesincountriesthatarenotinvolvedintheirinitialdevelopment,andbyfundingfirstofakinddemonstrationprojectsinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Internationalprogrammestofunddemonstrationprojects,especiallyinsectorswheretechnologiesarel
1201、argeandcomplex,wouldacceleratetheinnovationprocess(IEA,2020i). Carbondioxideremoval(CDR)programmes.CDRtechnologiessuchasbioenergyandDACequippedwithCCUSareessentialtoprovideemissionsreductionsatagloballevel.Internationalcooperationisneededtofundandcertifytheseprogrammes,soastomakethemostofsuitablelan
1202、d,renewableenergypotentialandstorageresources,wherevertheymaybe.Internationalemissionstradingmechanismscouldplayaroleinoffsettingemissionsinsomesectorsorareaswithnegativeemissions,thoughanysuchmechanismswouldrequireahighdegreeofcoordinationtoensuremarketfunctioningandintegrity.The NZE assumes that i
1203、nternational cooperation policies, measures and efforts areintroducedtoovercomethesehurdles.Toexplorethepotentialimplicationsofafailuretodoso,wehavedevisedaLowInternationalCooperationCase(Box4.2).Thisexamineswhatwouldhappenifnationaleffortstomitigateclimatechangerampupinlinewiththelevelofeffortinthe
1204、NZEbutcooperationframeworksarenotdevelopedatthesamespeed.Itshowsthatthelackofinternationalcooperationhasamajorimpactoninnovation,technologydemonstration,marketcoordinationandultimatelyontheemissionspathway.Box 4.2 Framing the Low International Co-operation Case TodeveloptheLowInternationalCooperatio
1205、nCase,technologiesandmitigationoptionswere assessed and grouped based on their current degree of maturity and theimportanceofinternationalcooperationtotheirdeployment.Maturetechnologiesinmarketsthatarefirmlyestablishedandthathavealowexposuretointernationalcooperation are assumed to have the same dep
1206、loyment pathways as in the NZE.Technologiesandmitigationoptionswherecooperationisneededtoachievescaleandavoidduplication,thathavealargeexposuretointernationaltradeandcompetitiveness,thatdependonlargeandverycapitalintensivedemonstrationprogrammes,orthatrequiresupporttocreatemarketpullandstandardisati
1207、ontoensureinteroperability,areassumedtobedeployedmoreslowly(MalhotraandSchmidt,2020).ComparedwiththeNZE,thesetechnologiesaredelayedby510yearsintheirinitialdeploymentinadvancedeconomiesandby1015yearsinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Chapter 4 | Wider implications of achieving net-zero emissions
1208、189 4Figure 4.24 CO2 emissions in the Low International Co-operation Case and the NZE IEA.Allrightsreserved.Without international co-operation, the transition to net zero would be delayed by decades Weak international cooperation slows the deployment of mitigation options that arecurrentlyinthedemon
1209、strationphase(Figure4.24).Thisincludesemissionsreductionsinheavyindustry,trucks,aviation,shippingandCDR.Theenergytransitionproceedsunevenlyasaresult.Overthenext20yearsintheLowInternationalCooperationCase,emissionsdeclineatarapidbutstillslowerpacethanintheNZEinelectricitygeneration,cars,lightindustry
1210、andbuildings.However,emissionsreductionsaremuchslowerinotherareas.Afterthemid2030s,thepaceofemissionsreductionsworldwideslowsmarkedlyrelativetotheNZE,andthetransitiontonetzeroisdelayedbydecades.Justover40%ofthe15GtCO2ofemissionsremainingin2050areinheavyindustry,wheretheslowerpaceofdemonstrationanddi
1211、ffusionofmitigationtechnologiesisparticularlysignificant(Figure4.25).Afurtheronethirdoftheresidualemissionsin2050arefromaviation,shippingandtrucks.Heretheslowerscaleupanddiffusionofadvancedbiofuels,hydrogenbasedfuelsandhighenergydensitybatterieshindersprogress.Theabsenceofcooperationtosupportthedepl
1212、oymentof new projects in emerging market and developing economies means that emissionsreductionstherearemuchslowerthanintheNZE.These results highlight the importance for governments of strengthening internationalcooperation.Astrongpushisneededtoaccelerateinnovationandthedemonstrationofkeytechnologie
1213、s,especiallyforcomplextechnologiesinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies where costs for firstofakind projects are generally higher, and to addressconcernsaboutinternationaltradeandcompetitivenesssoastoensureajusttransitionforall.02030205020702090GtCONZELowInternationalCooperationCaseIEA.
1214、 All rights reserved.190 International Energy Agency | Special Report Figure 4.25 CO2 emissions in the Low International Co-operation Case and the NZE in selected sectors in 2050 IEA.Allrightsreserved.CO2 emissions in 2050 in the Low International Co-operation Case are concentrated in the industry a
1215、nd transport sectors Note:Otherenergysector=fuelproductionanddirectaircapture.202468HeavyindustryAviationandshippingTrucksElectricitygenerationOtherenergysectorCarsLightindustryGtCOLowInternationalCooperationCaseNZEANNEXESIEA. All rights reserved.Annex A | Tables for scenario projections 193 AnnexAT
1216、ables for scenario projections GeneralnotetothetablesThisannexincludesglobalhistoricalandprojecteddatafortheNetZeroEmissionsby2050scenario for the following data sets: energy supply, energy demand, gross electricitygeneration and electrical capacity, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuelco
1217、mbustionandindustrialprocesses,andselectedeconomicandactivityindicators.ThedefinitionsforfuelsandsectorsareinAnnexC.Commonabbreviationsusedinthetablesinclude:EJ=exajoules;CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate;CCUS=carboncapture,utilisationandstorage.ConsumptionoffossilfuelsinfacilitieswithoutCCUSare
1218、classifiedas“unabated”.Bothinthetextofthisreportandinthetables,roundingmayleadtominordifferencesbetweentotalsandthesumoftheirindividualcomponents.Growthratesarecalculatedonacompoundaverageannualbasisandaremarked“n.a.”whenthebaseyeariszeroorthevalueexceeds200%.Nilvaluesaremarked“”.Todownloadthetables
1219、inExcelformatgoto:iea.li/nzedata.DatasourcesTheformalbaseyearforthescenarioprojectionsis2019,asthisisthelastyearforwhichacompletepictureofenergydemandandproductionisavailable.However,wehaveusedmorerecentdatawhenavailable,andweincludeour2020estimatesforenergyproductionanddemandinthisannex.Estimatesfo
1220、rtheyear2020arebasedonupdatesoftheIEAsGlobalEnergyReviewreportswhicharederivedfromanumberofsources,includingthelatestmonthlydatasubmissionstotheIEAsEnergyDataCentre,otherstatisticalreleasesfromnationaladministrations,andrecentmarketdatafromtheIEAMarketReportSeriesthatcovercoal,oil,naturalgas,renewab
1221、lesandpower.Historical data for gross electrical capacity are drawn from the S&P Global MarketIntelligence World Electric Power Plants Database (March 2020 version) and theInternationalAtomicEnergyAgencyPRISdatabase.Definitionalnote:A.1.EnergysupplyandtransformationtableTotalenergysupply(TES)isequiv
1222、alenttoelectricityandheatgenerationplus“otherenergysector”excludingelectricityandheat,plustotalfinalconsumption(TFC)excludingelectricityandheat.TESdoesnotincludeambientheatfromheatpumpsorelectricitytrade.SolarinTESincludessolarPVgeneration,concentratingsolarpowerandfinalconsumptionofsolarthermal.Oth
1223、errenewablesinTESincludegeothermal,andmarine(tideandwave)energyforelectricityandheatgeneration.Hydrogenproductionandbiofuelsproductionintheotherenergysectoraccountfortheenergyinputrequiredtoproducemerchanthydrogen(mainlynaturalgasandelectricity)andfortheconversionlossestoproducebiofuels(mainlyprimar
1224、y solid biomass) used in the energy sector. While not itemised separately, nonrenewablewasteandothersourcesareincludedinTES.IEA. All rights reserved.194 International Energy Agency | Special Report Definitionalnote:A.2.EnergydemandtableSectorscomprisingtotalfinalconsumption(TFC)includeindustry(energ
1225、yuseandfeedstock),transport,buildings(residential,servicesandnonspecifiedother)andother(agricultureandothernonenergyuse).Energydemandfrominternationalmarineandaviationbunkersareincludedintransporttotals.Definitionalnote:A.3.ElectricitytablesElectricitygenerationexpressedinterawatthours(TWh)andinstal
1226、ledelectricalcapacitydataexpressedingigawatts(GW)arebothprovidedonagrossbasis(i.e.includesownusebythegenerator).Projectedgrosselectricalcapacityisthesumofexistingcapacityandadditions,lessretirements.Whilenotitemisedseparately,othersourcesareincludedintotalelectricitygeneration.Definitionalnote:A.4.C
1227、O2emissionstableTotal CO2 includes carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels andnonrenewable wastes, from industrial and fuel transformation processes (processemissions)aswellasCO2removals.ThreetypesofCO2removalsarepresented: Captured and stored emissions from the combustion of bi
1228、oenergy and renewablewastes(typicallyelectricitygeneration). Capturedandstoredprocessemissionsfrombiofuelsproduction. Capturedandstoredcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere,whichisreportedasdirectaircarboncaptureandstorage(DACCS).Thefirsttwoentriesareoftenreportedasbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECC
1229、S).NotethatsomeoftheCO2capturedfrombiofuelsproductionanddirectaircaptureisusedtoproducesyntheticfuels,whichisnotincludedasCO2removal.Total CO2 captured includes the carbon dioxide captured from CCUS facilities (such aselectricitygenerationorindustry)andatmosphericCO2capturedthroughdirectaircapturebu
1230、texcludesthatcapturedandusedforureaproduction.Definitionalnote:A.5.EconomicandactivityindicatorsThe emission intensity expressed in kilogrammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatthour(kgCO2/kWh)iscalculatedbasedonelectricityonlyplantsandtheelectricitycomponentofcombinedheatandpower(CHP)plants.1Other abbr
1231、eviations used include: PPP = purchasing power parity; GJ = gigajoules;Mt=milliontonnes;pkm=passengerkilometres;tkm=tonneskilometres;m2=squaremetres.1ToderivetheassociatedelectricityonlyemissionsfromCHPplants,weassumethattheheatproductionofaCHPplantis90%efficientandtheremainderofthefuelinputisalloca
1232、tedtoelectricitygeneration.Table A.1: Energy supply and transformationEnergysupply(EJ)Shares(%)CAAGR(%)2004020502020203020502020203020202050Totalenergysupply65431001001000.70.3Renewables676930679.35.7Solar453278Wind562967891516179.6Hydro462.92.2
1233、Modernsolidbioenergy30145.32.8Modernliquidbioenergy434.9Moderngaseousbioenergy2251014013106.4Otherrenewables456.7Traditionaluseofbiomass25254n.a.n.a.Nuclear302941546158113.52.4Unabatednaturalgas17232131.66.6NaturalgaswithCCUS0716Oil42
1234、292582.34.6ofwhichnonenergyuse28273231295651.40.2Unabatedcoal261217.912CoalwithCCUS004Electricityandheatsectors23323024030837.41.6Renewables36384477116.9SolarPV232562Wind5629678921224179.6Hydro982.92.2Bioenergy906.34.6Other
1235、renewables4448.5Hydrogen5111123n.a.n.a.Ammonia12200n.a.n.a.Nuclear302943.52.4Unabatednaturalgas56554942242101.111NaturalgaswithCCUS15511n.a.n.a.Oil982004101214Unabatedcoal31201134CoalwithCCUS0031070125519Otherenergysector575761000.71.5Hydrogenproduction021
1236、4970035776623Biofuelsproduction56382.7Annex A | Tables for scenario projections195AIEA. All rights reserved.Table A.2: Energy demandEnergydemand(EJ)Shares(%)CAAGR(%)2004020502020203020502020203020202050Totalfinalconsumption43541001001000.40.6Electricity828
1237、026492.42.5Liquidfuels663836191.02.9Biofuels434.9Ammonia13501n.a.n.a.Syntheticoil02501n.a.n.a.Oil423733121.84.2Gaseousfuels70686860531617150.10.8Biomethane002580122513Hydrogen006Syntheticmethane01401n.a.n.a.Naturalgas7067584020161561.44.0Solidfuels92896146
1238、352216103.63.0Biomass39392425259674.81.4Coal5350382110121032.85.3Heat1.22.7Other33711151248.25.2Industry900.80.1Electricity35354762742228463.02.5Liquidfuels318150.20.9Oil318150.20.9Gaseousfuels32323534282021181.00.4Biomethane001240032215Hydrogen
1239、03450234415Unabatednaturalgas323230229201860.54.0NaturalgaswithCCUS001570143818Solidfuels585250.31.9Biomass135.22.8Unabatedcoal484435153282022.39.0CoalwithCCUS001570149131Heat666324311.24.5Other001340123314Ironandsteel36333736322122201.10.2Chemicals22202626251315152.70.7Cement1
1240、273.31.3International Energy Agency | Special Report196Table A.2: Energy demandEnergydemand(EJ)Shares(%)CAAGR(%)2004020502020203020502020203020202050Transport801001001000.30.9Electricity1711Liquidfuels9487381.03.9Biofuels43155.6Oil111
1241、96763599174122.27.4Gaseousfuels556101556182.13.7Biomethane001120022311Hydrogen004Naturalgas554205401.511Road908630.91.6Passengercars474213.12.9Trucks27252824222427281.10.4Aviation3184.61.7Shipping011120.40.3Buildings61001001002.41.3El
1242、ectricity43424551573346660.71.0Liquidfuels23.26.0Biofuels000110012612Oil3.47.7Gaseousfuels302823136222372.14.9Biomethane001220122911Hydrogen022202210327Naturalgas30281971222013.812Solidfuels34345.5Modernbiomass559764976.90.9Traditionaluseofbiomass252520n.a.n.a.Coal44
1243、1003101221Heat776545651.21.6Other23581125127.14.8Residential967673.01.5Services38363230282933331.20.9Other222322200.50.9Annex A | Tables for scenario projections197AIEA. All rights reserved.Table A.3: ElectricityElectricityGeneration(TWh)Shares(%)CAAGR(%)200402050202
1244、0203020502020203020202050Totalgeneration269222677837341001001003.43.3Renewables7747528127.2SolarPV665823469319332412Wind82135189.6Hydro4294444611716122.92.2Bioenergy66572793457.05.2ofwhichBECCSn.a.n.a.
1245、CSP3860123117Geothermal9294330625821011137.5Marine02814Nuclear27922698377748555497101083.42.4Hydrogenbased8751857171322n.a.n.a.FossilfuelswithCCUS320126121CoalwithCCUS0115419NaturalgaswithCCUSn.a.n.a.Unabatedfossilfuels358632259612505
1246、.413Coal9832942629470035801140Naturalgas6326253231700.010Oil7957565ElectricalCapacity(GW)Shares(%)CAAGR(%)2004020502020203020502020203020202050Totalcapacity74847795346.75.0Renewables270729946568386980137.5SolarPV60373749563
1247、3432110Wind623737392125158.4Hydro422822599171283.12.3Bioenergy46402225.74.5ofwhichBECCS2812515200n.a.n.a.CSP667328Geothermal000137.4Marine3416Nuclear48125322.22.3Hydrogenbased16n.a.n.a.FossilfuelswithCCUS01813123
1248、940116625CoalwithCCUS015922NaturalgaswithCCUS2813017101n.a.n.a.Unabatedfossilfuels43551677562222.76.0Coal243215827805.68.3Naturalgas0679495231310.64.3Oil440422.39.0Batterystorage30970494219International Energy Agency | Special Report1
1249、98Table A.4: CO2 emissionsACAAGR(%)2004020502020203020202050TotalCO2*359263390321147631604.655.4Combustionactivities(+)334993309404.811Coal91512991958.313Oil42633299283.27.7Naturalgas725975661.88.1Bioenergyandwaste757148528748n.a.n.a.Industryrem
1250、ovals()67528Biofuelsproduction6824Directaircapture71528633n.a.n.a.Electricityandheatsectors816813698.1n.a.Coal50102691115Oil655628173661214Naturalgas32681281.010Bioenergyandwaste87457572n.a.n.a.Otherenergysector*853687.4n.a.Finalconsu
1251、mption*2064701113702.58.4Coal448641173.511Oil7332428802.67.5Naturalgas345533032.27.7Bioenergyandwaste757140701765.6n.a.Industry*89038478689234855192.08.9Ironandsteel25072349.77.6Chemicals9654660.89.5Cement24661332.09.1Trans
1252、port829076892.27.5Road617933402.98.9Passengercars3547855.111Trucks48901980.66.9Aviation692102.43.5Shipping8838007053481221.36.1Buildings30072860.510Residential20301083.59.2Services977892432144147.013TotalCO2removals11317145
1253、719367929TotalCO2captured404024519*Includesindustrialprocessemissions.CO2emissions(MtCO2)199Annex A | Tables for scenario projectionsIEA. All rights reserved.Table A.5: Economic and Activity IndicatorsInternational Energy Agency | Special Report200IndicatorCAAGR(%)2004020502020
1254、203020202050Population(million)767277538505915596920.90.7GDP(USD2019billion,PPP)134 710128 276184 03746 9602316 411 3.73.26482.72.34.5434.5782.9732.1641.7164.23.2GDPpercapita(USD2019,PPP)TES/GDP(GJperUSD1000,PPP)TFC/GDP(GJperUSD1000,PPP)3.2313.2082.1391.4681.0864.03.5TESpercapi
1255、ta(GJ)79.7775.7464.3358.3856.031.61.0CO2intensityofelectricitygeneration(kgCO2perkWh)0.4680.4380.1380.0010.00511n.a.ActivityCAAGR(%)2004020502020203020202050Industrialproduction5385296416866881.90.97195819870.80.4Primarychemicals(Mt)Steel(Mt)Cement(Mt)4212940320.50.0
1256、Transport5775.01.8266462576599904.02.98045.9Passengercars(billionpkm)Trucks(billiontkm)Aviation*(billionpkm)Shipping(billiontkm)352910323.63.3Buildings49670498255886768576781571.71.582357452906963451832.02.0Servi
1257、cesfloorarea(millionm2)Residentialfloorarea(millionm2)Millionhouseholds2095230511.41.2*Aviationpassengerkilometrereferstocommercialpassengeraviationandexcludesactivityondedicatedcargofreightandmilitaryaviation.Annex B | Technology costs 201 AnnexBTechnology costs ElectricitygenerationTabl
1258、e B.1 Electricity generation technology costs by selected region in the NZE Financingrate(%)Capitalcosts($/kW)Capacityfactor(%)Fuel,CO2andO&M($/MWh)LCOE($/MWh)All2020203020502020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050UnitedStatesNuclear8.0500048004500908075303030105110110Coal8.0220 n.a.
1259、n.a.90170 235220 n.a. n.a.GasCCGT8.005525 n.a.5080 10570125 n.a.SolarPV3.7503020Windonshore3.704243440Windoffshore4.540402080520151156040EuropeanUnionNuclear8.06600570353535150120115Coal8.020002000200020 n.a. n.a.120205 275
1260、250 n.a. n.a.GasCCGT8.004020 n.a.6595 120100150 n.a.SolarPV3.27904603400553525Windonshore3.202930340Windoffshore4.0360020205105754025ChinaNuclear7.0280028002500808080252525656560Coal7.080080080060 n.a. n.a.75135 19590 n.a. n.a.GasCCGT7.056056056
1261、04535 n.a.75100 12090115 n.a.SolarPV3.575040028002515Windonshore3.502627270Windoffshore4.328404530IndiaNuclear7.0280028002800707070303030757575Coal7.0050 n.a. n.a.35507565 n.a. n.a.GasCCGT7.07007007005550 n.a.4545505560 n.a.SolarPV5.8
1262、5803555352015Windonshore5.8628290Windoffshore6.6298073825Notes:O&M=operationandmaintenance;LCOE=levelisedcostofelectricity;kW= kilowatt;MWh=megawatthour;CCGT=combinedcyclegasturbine;n.a.=notapplicable.CostcomponentsandLCOEfiguresarerounded.Sourc
1263、es:IEAanalysis;IRENARenewableCostingAlliance;IRENA(2020).IEA. All rights reserved.202 International Energy Agency | Special Report MajorcontributorstotheLCOEinclude:overnightcapitalcosts;capacityfactorthatdescribestheaverageoutputovertheyearrelativetothemaximumratedcapacity(typicalvaluesprovided);th
1264、e costoffuelinputs;plusoperationandmaintenance.Economiclifetimeassumptionsare25yearsforsolarPV,onshoreandoffshorewind. Weightedaveragecostsofcapital(WACC)reflectanalysisforutilityscalesolarPVintheWorldEnergyOutlook2020(IEA,2020)andforoffshorewindfromtheOffshoreWindOutlook2019(IEA,2019).Onshorewindwa
1265、sassumedtohavethesameWACCasutilityscalesolarPV.AstandardWACCwasassumedfornuclearpower,coalandgasfiredpowerplants(78%basedonthestageofeconomicdevelopment). Fuel,CO2andO&Mcostsreflecttheaverageoverthetenyearsfollowingtheindicateddateintheprojections. Thecapitalcostsfornuclearpowerrepresentthe“nthofaki
1266、nd”costsfornewreactordesigns,withsubstantialcostreductionsfromthefirstofakindprojects.BatteriesandhydrogenTable B.2 Capital costs for batteries and hydrogen production technologies in the NZE 202020302050Batterypacksfortransportapplications(USD/kWh)580Lowtemperatureelectrolysers(USD/kWe)8
1267、3500390NaturalgaswithCCUS(USD/kWH2)Notes:kWh=kilowatthour;kWe=kilowattelectric;CCUS=carboncapture,utilisationandstorage;H2=hydrogen.CapitalcostsforelectrolysersandhydrogenproductionfromnaturalgaswithCCUSareovernightcosts.Source:IEAanalysis.Annex C | Definitions 203 A
1268、nnexCDefinitions This annex provides general information on terminology used throughout this reportincluding:unitsandgeneralconversionfactors;definitionsoffuels,processesandsectors;regionalandcountrygroupings;andabbreviationsandacronyms.UnitsAreakm2squarekilometreMhamillionhectaresBatteriesWh/kgWatt
1269、hoursperkilogrammeCoalMtcemilliontonnesofcoalequivalent(equals0.7Mtoe)DistancekmkilometreEmissionsppmpartspermillion(byvolume)tCO2tonnesofcarbondioxideGtCO2eqgigatonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent(using100yearglobalwarmingpotentialsfordifferentgreenhousegases)kgCO2eqkilogrammesofcarbondioxideequivalent
1270、gCO2/kmgrammesofcarbondioxideperkilometrekgCO2/kWhkilogrammesofcarbondioxideperkilowatthourEnergyEJexajoulePJpetajouleTJterajouleGJgigajouleMJmegajouleboebarrelofoilequivalenttoetonneofoilequivalentktoethousandtonnesofoilequivalentMtoemilliontonnesofoilequivalentMBtumillionBritishthermalunitskWhkilo
1271、watthourMWhmegawatthourGWhgigawatthourTWhterawatthourGasbcmbillioncubicmetrestcmtrillioncubicmetresMasskgkilogramme(1000kg=1tonne)ktkilotonnes(1tonnex103)Mtmilliontonnes(1tonnex106)Gtgigatonnes(1tonnex109)IEA. All rights reserved.204 International Energy Agency | Special Report MonetaryUSDmillion1US
1272、dollarx106USDbillion1USdollarx109USDtrillion1USdollarx1012USD/tCO2USdollarspertonneofcarbondioxideOilkb/dthousandbarrelsperdaymb/dmillionbarrelsperdaymboe/dmillionbarrelsofoilequivalentperdayPowerWwatt(1joulepersecond)kWkilowatt(1wattx103)MWmegawatt(1wattx106)GWgigawatt(1wattx109)TWterawatt(1wattx10
1273、12)GeneralconversionfactorsforenergyMultipliertoconvertto:EJGcalMtoeMBtuGWhConvertfrom:EJ1238.8x10623.889.47.8x1032.778x105Gcal4.1868x10911073.9681.163x103Mtoe4.1868x10210713.968x10711630MBtu1.0551x1090.2522.52x10812.931x104GWh3.6x1068608.6x10534121Note:Thereisnogenerallyaccepteddefinitionofboe;typi
1274、callytheconversionfactorsusedvaryfrom7.15to7.40boepertoe.CurrencyconversionsExchangerates(2019annualaverage)1USdollar(USD)equals:BritishPound0.78ChineseYuanRenminbi6.91Euro0.89IndianRupee70.42IndonesianRupiah14147.67JapaneseYen109.01RussianRuble64.74SouthAfricanRand14.45Source:OECDNationalAccountsSt
1275、atistics:purchasingpowerparitiesandexchangeratesdataset,July2020.Annex C | Definitions 205 CDefinitionsAdvancedbioenergy:Sustainablefuelsproducedfromnonfoodcropfeedstocks,whicharecapableofdeliveringsignificantlifecyclegreenhousegasemissionssavingscomparedwithfossilfuelalternatives,andwhichdonotdirec
1276、tlycompetewithfoodandfeedcropsforagriculturallandorcauseadversesustainabilityimpacts.Thisdefinitiondiffersfromtheoneusedfor“advancedbiofuels”inUSlegislation,whichisbasedonaminimum50%lifecyclegreenhousegasreductionandwhich,therefore,includessugarcaneethanol.Agriculture:Includesallenergyusedonfarms,in
1277、forestryandforfishing.Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions: Includes greenhouse gasemissionsfromagriculture,forestryandotherlanduse.Ammonia(NH3):Isacompoundofnitrogenandhydrogen.Itcanbeuseddirectlyasafuelindirectcombustionprocess,andinfuelcellsorasahydrogencarrier.Tobealowcarbo
1278、nfuel,ammoniamustbeproducedfromlowcarbonhydrogen,thenitrogenseparatedviatheHaberprocess,andelectricityneedsaremetbylowcarbonelectricity.Aviation:Thistransportmodeincludesbothdomesticandinternationalflightsandtheiruseofaviationfuels.Domesticaviationcoversflightsthatdepartandlandinthesamecountry;fligh
1279、tsformilitarypurposesarealsoincluded.Internationalaviationincludesflightsthatlandinacountryotherthanthedeparturelocation.Backupgenerationcapacity:Householdsandbusinessesconnectedtoamainpowergridmayalsohavebackupelectricitygenerationcapacitythat,intheeventofdisruption,canprovide electricity. Backup g
1280、enerators are typically fuelled with diesel or gasoline andcapacitycanbeaslittleasafewkilowatts.Suchcapacityisdistinctfromminigridandoffgridsystemsthatarenotconnectedtoamainpowergrid.Biodiesel:Dieselequivalent,processedfuelmadefromthetransesterification(achemicalprocessthatconvertstriglyceridesinoil
1281、s)ofvegetableoilsandanimalfats.Bioenergy: Energy content in solid, liquid and gaseous products derived from biomassfeedstocksandbiogas.Itincludessolidbiomass,liquidbiofuelsandbiogases.Biogas:Amixtureofmethane,carbondioxideandsmallquantitiesofothergasesproducedbyanaerobicdigestionoforganicmatterinano
1282、xygenfreeenvironment.Biogases:Includebiogasandbiomethane.Biomethane:Biomethaneisanearpuresourceofmethaneproducedeitherbyupgradingbiogas(aprocessthatremovesanyCO2andothercontaminantspresentinthebiogas)orthroughthegasificationofsolidbiomassfollowedbymethanation.Itisalsoknownasrenewablenaturalgas.Build
1283、ings: The buildings sector includes energy used in residential, commercial andinstitutionalbuildingsandnonspecifiedother.Buildingenergyuseincludesspaceheatingandcooling,waterheating,lighting,appliancesandcookingequipment.IEA. All rights reserved.206 International Energy Agency | Special Report Bunke
1284、rs:Includesbothinternationalmarinebunkersandinternationalaviationbunkers.Capacity credit: Proportion of the capacity that can be reliably expected to generateelectricityduringtimesofpeakdemandinthegridtowhichitisconnected.Carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS):TheprocessofcapturingCO2emissionsfro
1285、mfuel combustion, industrial processes or directly from the atmosphere. Captured CO2emissionscanbestoredinundergroundgeologicalformations,onshoreoroffshoreorusedasaninputorfeedstocktocreateproducts.Clean energy: Includes renewables, energy efficiency, lowcarbon fuels, nuclear power,batterystorageand
1286、carboncapture,utilisationandstorage.Cleancookingfacilities:Cookingfacilitiesthatareconsideredsafer,moreefficientandmoreenvironmentallysustainablethanthetraditionalfacilitiesthatmakeuseofsolidbiomass(suchasathreestonefire).Thisrefersprimarilytoimprovedsolidbiomasscookstoves,biogassystems,liquefiedpet
1287、roleumgasstoves,ethanolandsolarstoves.Coal:Includesbothprimarycoal(includinglignite,cokingandsteamcoal)andderivedfuels(includingpatentfuel,browncoalbriquettes,cokeovencoke,gascoke,gasworksgas,cokeovengas,blastfurnacegasandoxygensteelfurnacegas).Peatisalsoincluded.Concentratingsolarpower(CSP):Solarth
1288、ermalpower/electricgenerationsystemsthatcollectandconcentratesunlighttoproducehightemperatureheattogenerateelectricity.Conventional liquid biofuels: Fuels produced from food crop feedstocks. These liquidbiofuelsarecommonlyreferredtoasfirstgenerationandincludesugarcaneethanol,starchbasedethanol,fatty
1289、acidmethylesther(FAME)andstraightvegetableoil(SVO).Decompositionanalysis:Statisticalapproachthatdecomposesanaggregateindicatortoquantifytherelativecontributionofasetofpredefinedfactorsleadingtoachangeintheaggregate indicator. This report uses an additive index decomposition of the typeLogarithmicMea
1290、nDivisiaIndex(LMDI).Demandsideintegration(DSI):Consistsoftwotypesofmeasures:actionsthatinfluenceloadshapesuchasenergyefficiencyandelectrification;andactionsthatmanageloadsuchasdemandsideresponse.Demandsideresponse(DSR):Describesactionswhichcaninfluencetheloadprofilesuchasshifting the load curve in t
1291、ime without affecting the total electricity demand, or loadshedding such as interrupting demand for short duration or adjusting the intensity ofdemandforacertainamountoftime.Dispatchable generation: Refers to technologies whose power output can be readilycontrolledincreasedtomaximumratedcapacityorde
1292、creasedtozeroinordertomatchsupplywithdemand.Electricitydemand:Definedastotalgrosselectricitygenerationlessownusegeneration,plusnettrade(importslessexports),lesstransmissionsanddistributionlosses.Annex C | Definitions 207 CElectricitygeneration:Definedasthetotalamountofelectricitygeneratedbypoweronly
1293、orcombinedheatandpowerplantsincludinggenerationrequiredforownuse.Thisisalsoreferredtoasgrossgeneration.EnergysectorCO2emissions:Carbondioxideemissionsfromfuelcombustion(excludingnonrenewablewaste).Notethatthisdoesnotincludefugitiveemissionsfromfuels,CO2fromtransport,storageemissionsorindustrialproce
1294、ssemissions.EnergysectorGHGemissions:CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionplusfugitiveandventedmethane,andnitrousdioxide(N2O)emissionsfromtheenergyandindustrysectors.Energyservices:Seeusefulenergy.Ethanol:Referstobioethanolonly.Ethanolisproducedfromfermentinganybiomasshighincarbohydrates.Today,ethanolismad
1295、efromstarchesandsugars,butsecondgenerationtechnologieswillallowittobemadefromcelluloseandhemicellulose,thefibrousmaterialthatmakesupthebulkofmostplantmatter.FischerTropschsynthesis:Catalyticproductionprocessfortheproductionofsyntheticfuels.Naturalgas,coalandbiomassfeedstockscanbeused.Gases:Includesn
1296、aturalgas,biogases,syntheticmethaneandhydrogen.Geothermal:Geothermalenergyisheatderivedfromthesubsurfaceoftheearth.Waterand/orsteamcarrythegeothermalenergytothesurface.Dependingonitscharacteristics,geothermal energy can be used for heating and cooling purposes or be harnessed togeneratecleanelectric
1297、ityifthetemperatureisadequate.Heat(enduse):Canbeobtainedfromthecombustionoffossilorrenewablefuels,directgeothermalorsolarheatsystems,exothermicchemicalprocessesandelectricity(throughresistanceheatingorheatpumpswhichcanextractitfromambientairandliquids).Thiscategoryreferstothewiderangeofenduses,inclu
1298、dingspaceandwaterheating,andcookinginbuildings,desalinationandprocessapplicationsinindustry.Itdoesnotincludecoolingapplications.Heat (supply): Obtained from the combustion of fuels, nuclear reactors, geothermalresourcesandthecaptureofsunlight.Itmaybeusedforheatingorcooling,orconvertedinto mechanical
1299、 energy for transport or electricity generation. Commercial heat sold isreportedundertotalfinalconsumptionwiththefuelinputsallocatedunderelectricityandheatsectors.Hydrogen:Hydrogenisusedintheenergysystemtorefinehydrocarbonfuelsandasanenergycarrierinitsownright.Itisalsoproducedfromotherenergyproducts
1300、foruseinchemicalsproduction.Asanenergycarrieritcanbeproducedfromhydrocarbonfuelsorfromtheelectrolysisofwaterwithelectricity,andcanbeburnedorusedinfuelcellsforelectricityandheatinawidevarietyofapplications.Tobelowcarbonhydrogen,eithertheemissionsassociatedwithfossilbasedhydrogenproductionmustbepreven
1301、ted(forexamplebycarboncapture,utilisationandstorage)ortheelectricityinputtohydrogenproducedfromwatermustbelowcarbonelectricity.Inthisreport,finalconsumptionofhydrogenIEA. All rights reserved.208 International Energy Agency | Special Report includesdemandforpurehydrogenandexcludeshydrogenproducedandc
1302、onsumedonsiteby the same entity. Demand for hydrogenbased fuels such as ammonia or synthetichydrocarbonsareconsideredseparately.Hydrogenbasedfuels:Includeammoniaandsynthetichydrocarbons(gasesandliquids).Hydrogenbasedisusedinfigurestorefertohydrogenandhydrogenbasedfuels.Hydropower:Theenergycontentoft
1303、heelectricityproducedinhydropowerplants,assuming100%efficiency.Itexcludesoutputfrompumpedstorageandmarine(tideandwave)plants.Industry:Thesectorincludesfuelusedwithinthemanufacturingandconstructionindustries.Keyindustrybranchesincludeironandsteel,chemicalsandpetrochemicals,cement,andpulpandpaper.Useb
1304、yindustriesforthetransformationofenergyintoanotherformorfortheproductionoffuelsisexcludedandreportedseparatelyunderotherenergysector.Consumptionoffuelsforthetransportofgoodsisreportedaspartofthetransportsector,whileconsumptionbyoffroadvehiclesisreportedunderindustry.International aviation bunkers: I
1305、ncludes the deliveries of aviation fuels to aircraft forinternational aviation. Fuels used by airlines for their road vehicles are excluded. Thedomestic/internationalsplitisdeterminedonthebasisofdepartureandlandinglocationsandnotbythenationalityoftheairline.Formanycountriesthisincorrectlyexcludesfue
1306、lsusedbydomesticallyownedcarriersfortheirinternationaldepartures.Internationalmarinebunkers:Coversfuelsdeliveredtoshipsofallflagsthatareengagedininternationalnavigation.Theinternationalnavigationmaytakeplaceatsea,oninlandlakesandwaterways,andincoastalwaters.Consumptionbyshipsengagedindomesticnavigat
1307、ionisexcluded.Thedomestic/internationalsplitisdeterminedonthebasisofportofdepartureandportofarrival,andnotbytheflagornationalityoftheship.Consumptionbyfishingvesselsandbymilitaryforcesisexcludedandincludedinresidential,servicesandagriculture.Investment:Allinvestmentdataandprojectionsreflectspendinga
1308、crossthelifecycleofaproject,i.e.thecapitalspentisassignedtotheyearwhenitisincurred.Investmentsforoil,gasandcoalincludeproduction,transformationandtransportation;thoseforthepowersector include refurbishments, uprates, new builds and replacements for all fuels andtechnologies for ongrid, minigrid and
1309、offgrid generation, as well as investment intransmissionanddistribution,andbatterystorage.Investmentdataarepresentedinrealtermsinyear2019USdollarsunlessotherwisestated.Lightdutyvehicles(LDV):includepassengercarsandlightcommercialvehicles(grossvehicleweight15tonnes).Usefulenergy:Referstotheenergythat
1310、isavailabletoenduserstosatisfytheirneeds.Thisisalsoreferredtoasenergyservicesdemand.Asresultoftransformationlossesatthepointofuse,theamountofusefulenergyislowerthanthecorrespondingfinalenergydemandformosttechnologies.Equipmentusingelectricityoftenhashigherconversionefficiencythanequipmentusingotherf
1311、uels,meaningthatforaunitofenergyconsumedelectricitycanprovidemoreenergyservices.Wind:electricityproducedbywindturbinesfromthekineticenergyofwind.Woodyenergycrops:Shortrotationplantingsofwoodybiomassforbioenergyproduction,suchascoppicedwillowandmiscanthus.Variablerenewableenergy(VRE):Referstotechnolo
1312、gieswhosemaximumoutputatanytimedependsontheavailabilityoffluctuatingrenewableenergyresources.VREincludesabroadarrayoftechnologiessuchaswindpower,solarPV,runofriverhydro,concentratingsolarpower(wherenothermalstorageisincluded)andmarine(tidalandwave).Zerocarbonreadybuildings:Azerocarbonreadybuildingis
1313、highlyenergyefficientandeitherusesrenewableenergydirectly,oranenergysupplythatcanbefullydecarbonised,suchaselectricityordistrictheat.Zeroemissionsvehicles(ZEVs):VehicleswhicharecapableofoperatingwithouttailpipeCO2emissions(batteryelectricvehiclesandfuelcellvehicles).RegionalandcountrygroupingsAdvanc
1314、edeconomies:OECDregionalgroupingandBulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus1,2,MaltaandRomania.Africa:NorthAfricaandsubSaharanAfricaregionalgroupings.AsiaPacific:SoutheastAsiaregionalgroupingandAustralia,Bangladesh,China,India,Japan,Korea,DemocraticPeoplesRepublicofKorea,Mongolia,Nepal,NewZealand,Pakistan,SriLanka,C
1315、hineseTaipei,andotherAsiaPacificcountriesandterritories.3Caspian:Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,TurkmenistanandUzbekistan.CentralandSouthAmerica:Argentina,PlurinationalStateofBolivia(Bolivia),Brazil,Chile,Colombia,CostaRica,Cuba,Curaao,DominicanRepublic,Ecuador,ElSalvado
1316、r,Guatemala,Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Trinidad andTobago,Uruguay,BolivarianRepublicofVenezuela(Venezuela),andotherCentralandSouthAmericancountriesandterritories.4China:Includesthe(PeoplesRepublicof)ChinaandHongKong,China.Annex C | Definitions 213 CFigure
1317、C.1 Main country groupings Note:Thismapiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Developing Asia: Asia Pacific regional grouping excluding Australia, Japan, Korea andNewZealand.Emerging mar
1318、ket and developing economies: All other countries not included in theadvancedeconomiesregionalgrouping.Eurasia:CaspianregionalgroupingandtheRussianFederation(Russia).Europe:EuropeanUnionregionalgroupingandAlbania,Belarus,BosniaandHerzegovina,North Macedonia, Gibraltar, Iceland, Israel5, Kosovo, Mont
1319、enegro, Norway, Serbia,Switzerland,RepublicofMoldova,Turkey,UkraineandUnitedKingdom.EuropeanUnion:Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus1,2,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, R
1320、omania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia,SpainandSweden.IEA (International Energy Agency): OECD regional grouping excluding Chile, Colombia,Iceland,Israel,Latvia,LithuaniaandSlovenia.LatinAmerica:CentralandSouthAmericaregionalgroupingandMexico.MiddleEast:Bahrain,IslamicRepublicofIran(Iran),Iraq,Jordan,Kuwa
1321、it,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,SyrianArabRepublic(Syria),UnitedArabEmiratesandYemen.NonOECD:AllothercountriesnotincludedintheOECDregionalgrouping.NonOPEC:AllothercountriesnotincludedintheOPECregionalgrouping.IEA. All rights reserved.214 International Energy Agency | Special Report NorthAfrica:Alg
1322、eria,Egypt,Libya,MoroccoandTunisia.NorthAmerica:Canada,MexicoandUnitedStates.OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development): Australia, Austria,Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,
1323、Korea,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Mexico,Netherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,SlovakRepublic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,UnitedKingdomandUnitedStates.OPEC(OrganisationofthePetroleumExportingCountries):Algeria,Angola,RepublicoftheCongo(Congo),EquatorialGuinea,Gabon,theIslamicRep
1324、ublicofIran(Iran),Iraq,Kuwait,Libya,Nigeria,SaudiArabia,UnitedArabEmiratesandBolivarianRepublicofVenezuela(Venezuela).SoutheastAsia:BruneiDarussalam,Cambodia,Indonesia,LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic(Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and VietNam. Thesecountriesareallmemberso
1325、ftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN).SubSaharanAfrica:Angola,Benin,Botswana,Cameroon,RepublicoftheCongo(Congo),CtedIvoire,DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Ghana,Kenya,Mauritius,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Senegal,SouthAfrica,SouthSudan,Sudan,UnitedRepublicofTanzania(
1326、Tanzania),Togo,Zambia,ZimbabweandotherAfricancountriesandterritories.6Countrynotes1NotebyTurkey:Theinformationinthisdocumentwithreferenceto“Cyprus”relatestothesouthernpartoftheisland.ThereisnosingleauthorityrepresentingbothTurkishandGreekCypriotpeopleontheisland.TurkeyrecognisestheTurkishRepublicofN
1327、orthernCyprus(TRNC).UntilalastingandequitablesolutionisfoundwithinthecontextoftheUnitedNations,Turkeyshallpreserveitspositionconcerningthe“Cyprusissue”.2NotebyalltheEuropeanUnionMemberStatesoftheOECDandtheEuropeanUnion:TheRepublicofCyprusisrecognisedbyallmembersoftheUnitedNationswiththeexceptionofTu
1328、rkey.TheinformationinthisdocumentrelatestotheareaundertheeffectivecontroloftheGovernmentoftheRepublicofCyprus.3Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:Afghanistan,Bhutan,CookIslands,Fiji,French Polynesia, Kiribati, Macau (China), Maldives, New Caledonia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, S
1329、amoa,SolomonIslands,TimorLesteandTongaandVanuatu.4Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:Anguilla,AntiguaandBarbuda,Aruba,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,Bermuda,Bonaire,BritishVirginIslands,CaymanIslands,Dominica,FalklandIslands (Malvinas), French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Ma
1330、rtinique, Montserrat, Saba, SaintEustatius,SaintKittsandNevis,SaintLucia,SaintPierreandMiquelon,SaintVincentandGrenadines,SaintMaarten,TurksandCaicosIslands.5ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDand/ortheIEAiswithou
1331、tprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.6Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:BurkinaFaso,Burundi,CaboVerde,CentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,Comoros,Djibouti,KingdomofEswatini,Gambia,Guinea,GuineaBissau,Le
1332、sotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Runion,Rwanda,SaoTomeandPrincipe,Seychelles,SierraLeone,SomaliaandUganda.Annex C | Definitions 215 CAbbreviationsandAcronymsAFOLUagricultureforestryandotherlanduseAPCAnnouncedPledgesCaseASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsBECCSbioenergyequippedwithC
1333、CUSBEVbatteryelectricvehiclesCCUScarboncapture,utilisationandstorageCDRcarbondioxideremovalCFLcompactfluorescentlampCH4methaneCHPcombinedheatandpower;thetermcogenerationissometimesusedCNGcompressednaturalgasCOcarbonmonoxideCO2carbondioxideCO2eqcarbondioxideequivalentCOPConferenceofParties(UNFCCC)CSP
1334、concentratingsolarpowerDACdirectaircaptureDACCSdirectaircapturewithcarboncaptureandstorageDERdistributedenergyresourcesDSIdemandsideintegrationDSOdistributionsystemoperatorDSRdemandsideresponseEAFelectricarcfurnacesEHOBextraheavyoilandbitumenETPEnergyTechnologyPerspectivesEUEuropeanUnionEVelectricve
1335、hicleFCEVfuelcellelectricvehicleGDPgrossdomesticproductGHGgreenhousegasesGTLgastoliquidsHEFAhydrogenatedestersandfattyacidsICEinternalcombustionengineIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIIASAInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysisIMFInternationalMonetaryFundIOCinternationaloilcompanyIPCCIntergovernm
1336、entalPanelonClimateChangeLCCLDVsLowCCUSCaselightdutyvehiclesLCVlightcommercialvehicleLEDlightemittingdiodeIEA. All rights reserved.216 International Energy Agency | Special Report LNGliquefiednaturalgasLPGliquefiedpetroleumgasMEPSminimumenergyperformancestandardsNDCsNationallyDeterminedContributions
1337、NEANuclearEnergyAgency(anagencywithintheOECD)NGLsnaturalgasliquidsNGVnaturalgasvehicleNOCnationaloilcompanyNOXnitrogenoxidesN2OnitrousdioxideNZENetZeroEmissionsScenarioOECDOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopmentOPECOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountriesPHEVpluginhybridelectricvehicles
1338、PLDVpassengerlightdutyvehiclePMparticulatematterPM2.5fineparticulatematterPPPpurchasingpowerparityPVphotovoltaicsR&DresearchanddevelopmentRD&Dresearch,developmentanddemonstrationSAFsustainableaviationfuelSDGSustainableDevelopmentGoals(UnitedNations)SO2sulphurdioxideSR1.5IPCCSpecialReportontheimpacts
1339、ofglobalwarmingof1.5CabovepreindustriallevelsSTEPSStatedPoliciesScenarioT&DtransmissionanddistributionTEStotalenergysupplyTFCtotalfinalconsumptionTFECtotalfinalenergyconsumptionTPEDtotalprimaryenergydemandUECunitenergyconsumptionUNUnitedNationsUNDPUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeUNEPUnitedNationsEn
1340、vironmentProgrammeUNFCCCUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeUKUnitedKingdomUSUnitedStatesVREvariablerenewableenergyWEOWorldEnergyOutlookWHOWorldHealthOrganizationZEVZeroemissionsvehicleAnnex D | References 217 AnnexDReferences Chapter1:Announcednetzeropledgesandtheenergysectorclimatewatch
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1350、ts/reports/cat09/0505171128_London_Congestion_Charge_Detailed_Assessment.doc.EuropeanCommission(2021),UrbanAccessRegulationsinEurope,https:/urbanaccessregulations.eu/countriesmainmenu147.Frank,S.(2021),Landbasedclimatechangemitigationpotentialswithintheagendaforsustainable development, Environmental
1351、 Research Letters, Vol. 16/2, https:/doi.org/10.1088/17489326/abc58a.IEA (International Energy Agency) (2021), The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean EnergyTransitions,IEA,https:/www.iea.org/reports/theroleofcriticalmineralsincleanenergytransitions.(2020a),WorldEnergyBalances2020edition:databasedocu
1352、mentation,http:/wds.iea.org/wds/pdf/WORLDBAL_Documentation.pdf.(2020b), Outlook for Biogas and Biomethane: Prospects for organic growth,https:/www.iea.org/reports/outlookforbiogasandbiomethaneprospectsfororganicgrowth.(2020c), World Energy Investment, 2020, https:/www.iea.org/reports/worldenergyinve
1353、stment2020.(2020d),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2020:SpecialReportonCleanEnergyInnovation,https:/www.iea.org/reports/cleanenergyinnovation.(2019),TheFutureofRail,https:/www.iea.org/reports/thefutureofrail.IMF(InternationalMonetaryFund)(2020a),June2020:ACrisisLikeNoOther,AnUncertainRecovery,https:/www
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1380、dividual IEA member countries. The IEA makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the publications contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the publication. Unless otherwise indicated, all material pres
1381、ented in figures and tables is derived from IEA data and analysis.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.IEA. All rights reserved.IEA PublicationsInternational Energy Agency Website: www.iea.orgContact information: www.iea.org/about/contact Typeset in France by IEA - May 2021Cover design: IEAPhoto credits: ShutterStock