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1、 FINANCIAL SERVICES Investing in the future How megatrends are reshaping the future of the investment management industry KPMG INTERNATIONAL 2 investing in the future Nobody can predict the future. However, one thing is clear, it will be very different to today. We believe that a number of deeply-ro
2、oted forces - megatrends - are driving fundamental changes within the investment management industry. 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affil
3、iated. Introduction and headlines What could an investor look like in 2030? Megatrends - the drivers of change Demographics Technology Environment Social values, behavior the clients of tomorrow are likely to be very different from the clients of today. This presents significant opportunities for th
4、e industry, but also unprecedented challenges and raises a number of key questions for executives. This paper does not attempt to predict the future, present forecasts based on historical data or attempt to second guess government policy or regulation. Our intention is simply to stimulate debate and
5、 encourage the industry to think more laterally about how clients needs will evolve and the implications for investment managers their proposition and how they structure, organize and manage their businesses. As you read the paper, we ask you to consider which trends will impact you most? Do you nee
6、d to take action now? Which do you need to monitor and track going forward? How might the rules of the game change and what would you do? We are excited by the industry prospects and we hope that you find this paper thought-provoking. We encourage you to consider and reflect on the themes covered an
7、d contact us or reach out to your local KPMG member firm to discuss how these megatrends will play out in your jurisdiction. Throughout this document, “KPMG” “we” , “or” and “us” refers to KPMG International, a Swiss entity that serves as a coordinating entity for a network of independent member fir
8、ms operating under the KPMG name, and / or to anyone of such firms. KPMG International provides no client services. Tom Brown Global Head of Investment Management Ian Smith Partner, The Strategy Group in the UK Lucy Luscombe Associate Director, The Strategy Group in the UK KPMG in the UK At KPMG, we
9、 believe that the future for the investment management industry is very positive and yet to capture the opportunities presented, it will have to overcome unprecedented challenges. 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swis
10、s entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 6 investing in the future Headlines 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPM
11、G network are affiliated. 7 investing in the future We believe that over the next 15 years: Demographic transformation, combined with technological advancement and social shifts, will significantly change the profile, needs and requirements of investors. Clients will be considerably more diverse in
12、terms of who they are, where they are located and what they need, want and expect from the industry. In order to effectively target and service this increasingly diverse client base, we believe client profiling, data analytics and operational flexibility will play increasingly important roles going
13、forward. There will be opportunities for investment managers to play a broader role in the industrys value chain as client demands of investment providers continue to change. We recognize that alpha generation and return delivery will remain key to the overall value proposition, particularly as inve
14、stors seek to provide for what could be an increasingly uncertain financial future given current savings rates. Interestingly for investment managers, delivering the level of return sought may be increasingly challenging in an environment in which these megatrends are present, as we have very limite
15、d historical precedent on how to achieve this. However, as investor engagement improves (more out of necessity than desire), we believe they are likely to value broader or newer aspects of the proposition set, outside the core investment management process. This could include: the level of advice, s
16、upport, information and education a provider offers its investor base. the ease of use and simplicity of the up-front asset allocation process. the access provided both in terms of breath of proposition set, asset classes available and ability to aggregate solutions and financial positions across a
17、range of financial providers. the depth of understanding of a clients individual needs, risk-return appetite and the readiness to tailor a personalized financial solution and service model accordingly. the degree of certainty and protection offered that intended outcomes will be delivered. Asset man
18、agers will have to make strategic choices in terms of where they want to position themselves to capture opportunities and what value they bring. Furthermore, in addition to the potential for significant value chain shifts, we believe a number of aspects of investment theory are being called into que
19、stion which will challenge core elements of the investment process and approach. 1 2 The megatrends referenced in this paper have the potential to significantly impact the investment management industry of 2030. However, the highly interconnected and interrelated nature of these trends is likely to
20、magnify the overall ramifications for the industry. 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 8 investing in the future Operational flexi
21、bility and agility will become key competitive advantages. While asset managers have been working diligently to improve operational efficiency, cost flexibility and to incorporate new technologies and new media into their existing infrastructure, we believe much of this work has been focused on addr
22、essing the legacy of yesterday and issues of today rather than preparing for the future. Going forward, some tough decisions may need to be made. We believe as asset managers look to take advantage of the opportunities presented by some of the longer-term shifts and respond to the subsequent challen
23、ges posed by an increasingly fast-paced world, it is likely to necessitate: a robust core platform which can be customized and tailored to address increasingly diverse client needs, differing expectations of service and deliver a personalized offering. a more rigorous focus on harnessing and leverag
24、ing a wider pool of data to drive investor insights, enhance the investment process and direct internal effort and investment. a more effective organizational structure, capable of managing the challenges created by further geographic expansion, withstanding the ongoing scrutiny of risk management f
25、rameworks by regulators and clients alike and providing better connectivity with other organizations in the asset managers broader network or value chain. a review of HR policies and practices to ensure they accurately reflect the evolving nature of the global talent pool, employees changing expecta
26、tions of working models and potential shifts in the core competencies for which asset managers are searching. Finally, there is the potential for the industry to see more radical disruption. With retirement systems under considerable strain in many global economies, existing savings and investments
27、models will need to change, providing opportunities for more radical shifts. This could either be as a result of new entrants (perhaps with established brands) looking to move into what remains a relatively high-margin industry or for more innovative product solutions to challenge the existing propo
28、sition set by increasing outcome certainty. Would investors be more prepared to save if they were able to lock down value in physical goods or services earlier in the product lifecycle? Could this create a paradigm shift? 3 4 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG Internati
29、onal provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 9 investing in the future “ The future belongs to people who see possibilities before they become obvious. ” Ted Levitt American economist and professor at Harvard Busin
30、ess School 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. What could an investor look like in 2030? Profile: While there may be fewer typical
31、investors, there are likely to be more investors located in different places, with different needs, social, political and economic attitudes, lifestyles and income patterns. Institutional investors are also likely to continue to change in profile. Sovereign wealth funds are likely to play an even gr
32、eater role. Defined benefits providers will probably continue to decline and be replaced by new collective defined contribution schemes, new risk-sharing pensions or healthcare savings vehicles. The advent of megacities could also act as important force shaping the institutional client landscape. Ne
33、eds: Investors are likely to need to increase their level of engagement with the industry. A greater proportion of the population will probably need to manage their finances more actively to take control of their financial future. They are likely to look for financial support to cover a greater prop
34、ortion of their lives, rather than focusing exclusively on saving for retirement. With financial literacy remaining low across the globe, the industry may be expected to provide better advice, information, education and support as investors seek to better manage their personal finances. As investors
35、 experience an increasing number of life events, the flexibility to adapt and change their investment portfolio will become more critical. 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent membe
36、r firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 11 investing in the future Wants and expectations: Investors are likely to expect organizations to understand them, treat them as individuals and customize and tailor service models to suit their specific requirements. Investors will increasingly look for
37、brands they can trust. In an industry currently suffering from high levels of consumer mistrust, investors are likely to assign increased value to trusted brands, particularly as awareness of issues such as data security, confidentiality and privacy increases. In tomorrows world, simplicity, transpa
38、rency, honesty and integrity, are likely to be regarded as more important buying criteria. Investors will probably want less risk and more certainty so they can be confident that the products in which they are invested will deliver the intended outcomes. As a result, they are likely to expect better
39、 solutions to their individual needs and may also want to lock down value earlier in a product lifecycle. Interactive service models, 24/7 connectivity and access to relevant and timely information via a wide variety of media types will increasingly be expected as the norm. Behaviors: Investors may
40、increasingly trust and value advice from alternative sources. Decisions are likely to be influenced not only by their peers, friends and colleagues, but also the opinions of online groups and social media communities, which may span countries, cultures and which will almost certainly be comprised of
41、 strangers. Investors are likely to be more willing to consider non-traditional alternatives to traditional savings and retirement products, either as a result of increased availability and investor awareness, social and peer pressures or ongoing mistrust in the traditional financial services indust
42、ry. As the pace of technological advancement continues to increase, investors willingness to adopt new products and technologies is also likely to grow. Their dependency on such technologies will almost certainly increase at the same time. Multitasking and time scarcity is likely to continue to esca
43、late, prompting more investors to look for time-saving solutions, single point of access and aggregation across a range of providers. 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member fir
44、ms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 12 investing in the future 2014 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Demographics Demographic tren
45、ds will not only magnify the need for effective investment management, but over time, they will radically change the nature of the challenge and an investment managers potential client base. Environment Resource insecurities are changing the nature of investment opportunities and demand for risk pro
46、tection, as well as increasing the importance of socially responsible corporate behaviors and investment strategies. Technology Technological developments continue to act as major drivers of social, economic and environmental change, creating new opportunities and disrupting existing business models
47、. Social values, behavior and ethics Technology and the internet have combined to revolutionize how a large proportion of the worlds population interacts, communicates and behaves. 13 investing in the future Megatrends The drivers of change Seismic shifts in demographics, technology, the environment
48、 and social values and behaviors are set to re-draw the investment management landscape. The future is being shaped by a wide range of global megatrends which are already bringing about profound changes to the global political and economic outlook, social norms, personal lives and the corporate worl
49、d. Most people are already aware of the broad direction of change and some of the more immediate aspects. In the investment management industry, many of these themes have been reflected in investment strategies. However, we believe the implications for investors needs and requirements (as well as for asset managers business and operating models) need to be more fully explored. KPMG has done a considerable amount of work in this area and developed thinking around six key megatrends. In this paper we have focused on the four megatrends we believe are the most relevant and pertinent to the inves