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1、 / 202020% 20201 20%11 18.75%1-22 20.18%20% 4% 2019Q1 100% 20% 2019-2021EPS1.291.582.02PE 25.40 x20.77x16.27x 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 9,986 13,856 35,386 44,816 55,288 (+/-)% 35.86% 38.76% 155.38% 26.65% 23.37% 1,589 2,698 2,874 3,515 4,488 (+/-)% 35.01% 69.76% 6.51% 22.32% 27.67% 0.71 1.21 1.
2、29 1.58 2.02 64.13 25.00 25.40 20.77 16.27 19.56 5.89 5.21 3.98 3.19 (%) 30.50% 23.54% 20.51% 19.14% 19.64% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 1,217 1,713 2,226 2,226 2,226 2020/2/21 6 37.89 32.79 12 26.6941.17 73,000 2,226 A 2,226 B/H 0/0 13 -4% 6% 16% 26% 36% 46% 2019/22019/52019/82019/11 % 1M 3
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7、ct 3pct 4pct 5pct 6pct 4% 14.01% 19.03% 24.06% 29.08% 34.10% 5% 15.11% 20.18% 25.25% 30.32% 35.39% 6% 16.20% 21.32% 26.44% 31.56% 36.68% 7% 17.30% 22.47% 27.63% 32.80% 37.97% 8% 18.40% 23.61% 28.83% 34.04% 39.26% 202020202019 1.2. SARS SARS 60%70% 20.4%14.5% 3 22.0% 24.6% 20.8% 42.2% 16.2% 70.2% 73.
8、6% 51.5% 61.8% 5.2% 5.6% 6.7% SARS 4 20% 30KG-500KG C2C B2C 10-20% 500KG-3T B2B 5-15% 3T-10T B2B 10% -4kg30 100kg2191300-500 1kg20% 2016 2016 CR8 9 10CR8 1-2 3 200830 11 2019Q3 11 / 25 CR882.3% 112008-2019 12CR8 EMS 25% 1 2018Q2-2019Q3 2019Q1 6113% 26 80%2019Q36 81.78%EMS 3 13 12 / 25 14% 15% 2.2. 1
9、2 3 4J&T 80% 3.3pct 1.9pct CR390% 20% 162019% 172017% 48%26%10%6%A 13 / 25 1819H1 1920191-11 20% 21% 20193500 90% 9.456.8338% 22 23 14 / 25 2020 20195 6-85 118% 2020201611 20174 40%2020 J&T 2020 24% 25 2.3. 26 5 18% 5pct7pct13pct12pct 15 / 25 8 2019E 121.98 100.75 72.87 89.66 74.14 2020E 148.81 123.
10、48 95.29 112.49 96.61 22% 2021E 178.58 151.35 124.61 141.12 125.91 20% 2022E 210.72 185.50 162.95 177.04 164.08 18% 2023E 244.43 227.35 213.09 222.11 213.83 16% 2024E 278.65 278.65 278.65 278.65 278.65 14% % 18% 23% 31% 25% 30% 18% 0% 5% 13% 7% 12% - 2019Q3 164876046 272019Q3 16 / 25 3. 2019 3.1. 20
11、1999 2007 90%2013 201916% 282019H1 29 17 / 25 9 19998 2002 2007 2008 2009 2011 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 52.19% 30 3.2. 2013-2018 41%33% 2013-2018 26%71%20192019 27% 18 / 25 31 32 332013 342013 3.3. 3.3.1. 201380 2014 49100% 19 / 25 35 362018 “” 20000/0.000140% 25%+ 10A 19.73 20.52 12.55 6.97 23 13.5
12、 15.94 5.17 3.35 5 2015-2018 53% 2016-2018 20 / 25 37 38+ 39 40 41 3.3.2. 21 / 25 201515.46% 5.7520182.41pct 112018 72 1 1 1 1 1 1 EMS 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 5 3 7 3 4 6 4 4 5 4 5 8 3 6 3 6 2019H1121 422019H1 4319H1 3.3.3. 20181040% 15pct20% 201915.9% 3pct2pct 22 / 25 44 45 46% 2019 1pct 47% 48% 23 / 25 20
13、18A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 1,920 11,870 18,141 24,666 2,602 2,822 3,441 4,387 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 537 1,004 1,321 1,625 691 832 1,072 1,272 39 97 125 153 0 0 0 0 7,674 8,847 9,878 10,912 19 30 49 62 10,170 21,817 29,465 37,355 -758 -190 -100 -100 838 0 0 0 1,101 7,620 3,223 3,135 91
14、85 85 85 34 39 40 40 4,717 5,810 6,856 7,649 3,714 11,153 7,724 8,796 1,222 1,558 1,883 2,220 -7,728 -1,417 -2,542 -2,510 16 16 16 16 4,071 213 1,089 238 7,911 8,647 10,177 11,475 -2,366 -7,592 -2,452 -1,230 18,081 30,464 39,643 48,829 400 965 1,265 1,565 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 3,018 6,909 9,090 11
15、,117 907 2,241 2,902 3,561 1.21 1.29 1.58 2.02 0 0 0 0 5.15 6.29 8.25 10.26 6,479 16,361 21,262 26,062 1.67 5.01 3.47 3.95 0 0 0 0 60 60 60 60 38.76% 155.38% 26.65% 23.37% 60 60 60 60 69.76% 6.51% 22.32% 27.67% 6,539 16,422 21,322 26,122 11,460 14,012 18,364 22,852 28.02% 14.50% 14.00% 14.35% 81 30
16、-44 -145 19.47% 8.12% 7.84% 8.12% 18,081 30,464 39,643 48,829 11.38 10.35 10.76 10.73 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.18 13,856 35,386 44,816 55,288 9,974 30,255 38,542 47,354 36.17% 53.91% 53.79% 53.50% 50 57 67 83 1.57 1.33 1.39 1.43 25 0 0 0 1.56 1.32 1.37 1.42 175 223 282 348 789 1,203 1,398 1,719 1.26% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% -17 -51 -111 -161 5.69% 3.40% 3.12% 3.11% 0 0 0 0 -0.12