《【公司研究】南天信息-云南国资唯一信息化平台迈向新征程-20200309[25页].pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《【公司研究】南天信息-云南国资唯一信息化平台迈向新征程-20200309[25页].pdf(25页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、 / ITITA 19992014OFP CoreBanking V5.52018 11.21 +IT 2020-2023ITIT2018 IT1116.8+10.1% 419.9+23.6%2014 201975%2018-19 IT 2020-2023IT 201911 201920212021 4G23.25G5.6IDC 3.220201 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2,316 2,780 3,164 4,068 5,291 (+/-)% 7% 20% 14% 29% 30% 22 75 36 75 150 (+/-)% 6% 240% -52% 108
2、% 99% 0.07 0.23 0.11 0.23 0.47 180 53 109 52 26 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 (%) 1.5% 5.0% 2.4% 4.8% 9.1% (%) 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% () 321 321 321 321 321 2020/3/6 6 17.76-19.03 12.32 12 8.8018.82 3,950 321 A 321 B/H 0/0 28 -22% -15% -8% -1% 6% 2019/3 2019/6 2019/9 2019/12 % 1M 3M 12M 23% 17% 13% 17% 11%
3、6% IT 2020 -20191203 0771Q3 -20191114 S0550519100001 S0550119110002 S0550119110012 S0550119120003 000948 2020-03-09 2 / 25 1. . 3 1.1. ITA .3 1.2. IT .3 2. ITAIT . 4 3. IT+. 11 3.1. IT . 11 3.2. IT .15 3.2.1. 6.55 . 15 3.2.2. . 16 3.3. .64/4
4、0.68/52.9114%/29%/30% .17 3.4. 2019-20210.36/0.75/1.50 .20 3.5. 20201.4-1.5xP/S17.76-19.03 .20 4. . 22 3 / 25 1. 1.1. ITA ITA ITA 201911 20G23.25G 5.6IDC3.2IT 20201 China Electronics Corporation IT36 1511 20182227 1351876003.8 6.52020220 6.5 4.551.955 1.2. IT IT 0 2014OFP CoreB
5、anking V5.5 8000 2018 2.57%11.21+IT 2020-2023ITITIDC 2018IT1116.8+10.1%419.9 +23.6%IT 2014201975% 12 2018220192 4 / 25 32019442019 8FinTech 20192021 52019 9 IT120191024 3.5% 1%2018 65.02+35%20172.94%2019 2697.5202094.4118-20 21% 220184 3000 IT 2018 2019-20210.36/0.75/1.50 109/52/26x P
6、/E2020-2021P/E43/33x IT2020 P/S 2020WindP/S 1.4x20201.4-1.5xP/S 202040.6857-6117.76-19.03 1IT2 3 2. ITAIT 1985 19701985 1999Nantian PR 40%Nantian BSTNantian BP8900 2010IBM +2016 2018 5 / 25 1 Wind AIT 35.38%0.78% 2.57% 22019Q3 Wind 1999-20186.827.8CAGR7.7%1999 6.727.8CAGR7.7%2012 31.3% 201820% 6 / 2
7、5 31999-2018yoy Wind -2018 4399747737011413 20032012 2003 2012 2018 7477+240%1413+126% 42000-2018 Wind 2018 201815.9758% 7 / 25 5.6120%4.6417% 2018 201829%52% 40%72% 201850%201823% 3.359%51% 10%20% 52018 62018 Wind Wind %17%2014-2018 5.494.6430% 17%2.91 5.61CAGR18%9.5915.97CA
8、GR14% IT 72000-2018 Wind 8 / 25 201842.72%2017 17 42%13% 82014-18 Wind 9 18 Wind 2018 27.8IT2018 51943674 IT 9 / 25 102014-18IT Wind 112014-18IT Wind 10 / 25 122014-18IT Wind ROE2014-2017ROE 0.8%-1.5%IT ROE ROE 13 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ROE 8.3% 6.2% 13.4% 9.3% 4.9% 11.6% 11.3% 6.2% 6.4% 0.9% 9.0%
9、 11.0% 19.8% 17.3% 13.8% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 5.0% 15.0% 8.4% 15.9% 10.0% 5.3% 4.4% 5.5% 3.2% 3.9% 0.5% 3.1% 5.0% 10.6% 11.7% 9.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 3.6% 0.46 0.53 0.60 0.67 0.66 1.05 0.97 0.95 0.81 0.85 1.03 0.93 0.80 0.66 0.73 0.71 0.82 0.82 0.86 0.95 1.20 1.39 1.43 1.39 1.42 2.57 2.23 2.15 2.13
10、2.18 2.85 2.40 2.29 2.26 2.06 1.83 1.83 1.82 1.86 1.98 Wind ROEROE=/ 11 / 25 3. IT+ 3.1. IT 2018IT1100IDC2018 IT1116.810.1%2010-2018IT 7.8% 14IT IDC 2018IT419.9IDC 2018419.923.6% IT IDC.8% 2023IT1071.5 IT IT2018 IT43.3%IT 21.4%/IT30.9%2018 IT201752.1%48.8%50% 12 / 25 152018IT 16 2017IT ID
11、C IDC 1985 10005 17 OFP CoreBankingOFP CoreBanking V5.5OFP CoreBanking V5.520112014 TB 8000113000 / 13 / 25 18 IT20149 2015 152019 75IT 2016 IT 20182018112 2018 20192 2019222 14 / 25 1920192 20194201942 2019 20198FinTech 20192021 2021198 FinTech 20192021 20199 1999 IT2020 120191024 3.5% 1%2018 15 /
12、25 65.02+35%20172.94% 20192697.52020 94.4118-2021% 220184 3000 ITIT2020-2023 IT2020-2023IT 2015-2019IT IT 3.2 IT 3.1.1. 6.55 6.52020220 6.5 4.551.955 20082 64 41.11% 16 / 25 202019Q3 3.1.2 IT20191121 20192021 2021 20214G 23.25G5.6IDC3.2 21 17 / 25 2 3.2 .64/40.68/52.91 2019-2
13、021-40%/-10%/-10% 20% 19 2017A 2018A 2019H1A 2019E 2020E 2021E 412 464 128 279 251 226 -6% 13% -28% -40% -10% -10% 106 94 20 56 51 46 26% 20% 16% 20% 20% 20% Wind %/40%/40%56% IT IT 2017A 2018A 2019H1A 2019E 2020E 2021E 491 561 246 730 1,022 1,430 3% 14% 41% 30% 40% 40% 288 330 137 407 57
14、0 798 59% 59% 55% 56% 56% 56% Wind 18 / 25 2017A 2018A 2019H1A 2019E 2020E 2021E 1,388 1,597 740 1,917 2,492 3,240 14% 15% 28% 20% 30% 30% 153 152 65 183 263 374 11% 10% 9% 10% 11% 12% Wind 2019-20% 2020-20210%18% 2019 38%2019 2018A 2019H1A 2019E 2020E 2021E 65 32 52 52 52 - -38% -20% 0% 0% 12 7 9 9
15、 9 18% 22% 18% 18% 18% Wind 19 / 25 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 35 91 132 192 45% 45% 45% 55 79 115 60% 60% 60% 31 45 65 94 45% 45% 45% 27 39 56 60% 60% 60% Wind 18 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2,316 2,780 3,164 4,068 5,291 7% 20% 14% 29% 30% 24% 23% 24% 26% 27% 412 464 279 251 226 -6% 13% -40% -10% -1
16、0% 26% 20% 20% 20% 20% 491 561 730 1,022 1,430 3% 14% 30% 40% 40% 59% 59% 56% 56% 56% 1,388 1,597 1,917 2,492 3,240 14% 15% 20% 30% 30% 11% 10% 10% 11% 12% - 65 52 52 52 - - -20% 0% 0% - 18% 18% 18% 18% - 66 160 225 318 - 144% 41% 41% - 74% 62% 62% 62% 25 27 27 27 27 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 51% 41% 41% 41% 4
17、1% Wind 20 / 25 3.3 2019-20210.36/0.75/1.50 20184.4%2017 2019-20214.4% 20189.6%2017 IT 2019-20219.6% 20186.7% 2019-2021 6.6%/6.6%/6.6% 20180.6%2019 2019-2021 0.1%/0.1%/0.1% 201820172019 20182019 2019-20211.1%2.1%3.2% 0.360.751.50 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 113 123 140 180 234 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
18、4.4% 221 267 303 390 508 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 167 185 208 267 347 7.2% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 18 17 5 5 4 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 22 75 36 75 150 0.9% 2.7% 1.1% 1.8% 2.8% 6% 240% -52% 108% 99% Wind 3.4 20201.4-1.5xP/S17.76-19.03 202057-6117.76-19.03 2019-20210.36/0.75/1.50 109/52/26x P/E2020-2021P
19、/E43/33x IT2020 P/S 2020WindP/S 1.4x20201.4-1.5xP/S 202040.6857-6117.76-19.03 21 / 25 29PS2020/3/8 () () () P/S P/E 2020/3/8 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E 125 17.4 22.2 2.2 2.9 7.2 5.6 56 42 173 120.5 145.8 4.5 5.7 1.4 1.2 38 31 151 33.8 42.4 3.7 4.8 4.5 3.6 41 32 64 22.6 27.4 1.9
20、2.4 2.8 2.3 34 27 4.0 3.2 43 33 39 40.7 52.9 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 52 26 Wind 22 / 25 4 ITIT IT 23 / 25 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 1,165 1,175 1,260 1,420 75 36 75 150 - - - - 7 (12) (12) (0) 672 763 977 1,265 33 40 45 49 604 666 849 1,076 - - - - 5 5 5 5 17 5 5 4 2,404 2,562 3,032 3,
21、694 (87) (9) (9) (9) - - - - (10) (74) (78) (110) 54 54 54 54 (7) - - - 227 129 35 (56) 53 37 97 183 129 193 247 295 498 3 3 3 27 27 27 27 (131) (30) (15) (26) 693 658 619 576 420 10 85 161 3,097 3,220 3,651 4,269 405 405 405 405 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 703 740 979 1,293 42 48 62 80 0.23 0.11 0.23 0
22、.47 1 1 1 1 4.73 4.76 4.96 5.36 1,283 1,345 1,640 2,030 0.17 0.12 0.30 0.57 2 - - - 39 39 39 39 20.0% 13.8% 28.6% 30.1% 40 39 39 39 240.0% -51.6% 107.9% 99.2% 1,323 1,383 1,678 2,069 1,515 1,527 1,592 1,719 23.3% 24.2% 25.7% 27.1% 259 310 381 481 2.7% 1.1% 1.8% 2.8% 3,097 3,220 3,651 4,269 5.70 5.70
23、 5.70 5.70 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 3.53 3.67 3.67 3.67 2,780 3,164 4,068 5,291 2,132 2,397 3,024 3,857 42.7% 42.9% 46.0% 48.5% 17 19 24 32 1.87 1.91 1.85 1.82 7 16 20 26 1.40 1.41 1.33 1.29 185 208 267 347 123 140 180 234 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 17 5 5 4 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% - - - - 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 8
24、7 9 9 9 140 109 195 333 32.1% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 0 0 0 0 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% 140 109 195 333 41 22 49 83 P/E 53 109 52 26 99 87 147 250 P/B 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 75 36 75 150 P/S 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 (24) (51) (71) (100) 5.0% 2.4% 4.8% 9.1% 24 / 25 2012 820 42018Wind1 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5
25、%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 25 / 25 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 chen_ L
26、 liu_ C