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1、uncommon senseTMThe forecourt of the futureHow electric vehicles will shape the industry02|OC&C The forecourt of the futureFuel station forecourts have been a fixture of our urban landscape and highways for decades,a welcome port of call on a long journey or a convenient spot to quickly refuel in th
2、e middle of school runs and supermarket shops.But anyone paying attention to the rise of electric vehicles(EVs)on our roads may wonder whether the forecourt will have a place in the landscape of our future.We believe it has,albeit not in an identical format to how we experience them today,and indeed
3、,forecourts will face strong competition from a range of other locations to recharge EVs.Yet,our research indicates that the likely decrease in forecourt footfall will take time to become significant and does not necessarily mean operators will see their profits decline in a similar way.OC&C The for
4、ecourt of the future|03Aside from during the Covid-19 pandemic,EV vehicle ownership has been steadily rising for several years,and will only accelerate as European nations develop charging infrastructure and make progress towards their net zero commitments.The race to net zeroSource:IEA;OC&C analysi
5、sTOTAL ANNUAL EV CAR SALES(EX PHEV),SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES,2016 20262016A2016A2016A2016A2016A2016A2021A2021A2021A2021A2021A2021A2026F2026F2026F2026F2026F2026F360K11K1,366K22K170K721K190K871K2K25K205K1K67K63K353K4K291K+101%P.A.+31%P.A.+51%P.A.+34%P.A.+77%P.A.+66%P.A.+117%P.A.+73%P.A.+36%P.A.+39%
6、P.A.+52%P.A.+36%P.A.Compound annual growth rate(%)11KA=annualF=Forecast.04|OC&C The forecourt of the futureIts easy to overestimate the effect of EV adoption on the total car fleet.We estimate around a quarter of all cars across Europe will be EVs by 2030,but there will be significant variation betw
7、een countries.For example,in the Netherlands,which is already far advanced with its charging infrastructure,we estimate around 35%of all cars will be EVs versus Italy and Spain where we expect EV penetration to be around 10%.This means as many as 75%of car owners will still need petrol and diesel fr
8、om forecourts,and these are likely to be supplied at much higher margins than at present.Source:IEA;OC&C analysis100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%200022F2022F2024F2024F2026F2026F2028F2028F2030F2030F%of new passenger car sales%of total passenger car fleet1DEVELOPMENT EV SALES(EX
9、 PHEV)IN EUROPE,BY COUNTRY,2016-2030FWe estimate around a quarter of all cars across Europe will be EVs by 2030,but there will be significant variation between countries Fuel beyond 2030OC&C The forecourt of the future|05Nevertheless,European fuel volumes are forecast to slowly decrease until 2030 b
10、y around 1 to 3%per annum,and beyond 2030 the pace of decline begins to accelerate significantly.For those making the transition to electric today,the primary concerns are the purchase cost of an EV,alongside range and access to charging points.For the latter concern,European nations are already ris
11、ing to the challenge of creating adequate charging infrastructure.Today,the majority of EV charging happens at home,where its convenient and inexpensive.But there is an inevitable limit to the volume of vehicles which can be charged this way.The majority of all homes across the EU have no access to
12、a driveway for home charging,and while on-street charging infrastructure is being developed,it also has a natural limit based on the number of possible locations and peoples access to them.Consequently,we estimate the share of people charging at home will drop from circa 60%today to 40%by 2030,preci
13、sely because future EV adopters will not have the option to install a private charging plug.We estimate the share of people charging at home will drop from circa 60%today to 40%by 203006|OC&C The forecourt of the futureACROSS EUROPE,IT IS EXPECTED THAT PUBLIC CHARGING INCLUDING“ON ROUTE”,WILL GAIN S
14、HARE FROM“AT HOME”CHARGING IN THE FUTURE Drivers of Where People Will Charge in the FutureAt homeAt Work2Drivers of Change Cheapest and most convenient form of charging for those with access to off-street or private parking.As adoption increases,those in shared multi-dwelling homes will be challenge
15、d by limited access to private parking.Drivers of Change Investment in workplace charging schemes is expected to continue.Each schemes role will depend on individual countries government policies.Share Evolution to 2030Share Evolution to 20302020 Share of Charge2020 Share of Chargec.60%c.15%On Stree
16、tDrivers of Change Continued landgrab expected,with infrastructure roll-out moving at pace,as seen by Ubitricity.Challenging supplier economics and a weaker consumer proposition.Slower charging and safety concerns depending on the distance from home may constrain longer-term adoption.Share Evolution
17、 to 20302020 Share of Chargec.10%DestinationDrivers of Change Charging infrastructure at“Destination”locations(e.g.,supermarkets)will expand as these locations use EV charging as a traffic driver for their core business.Capacity constraints will likely see destination locations focus on less powerfu
18、l charging technology i.e.,rapid,not ultra-rapid charging.Share Evolution to 20302020 Share of Chargec.10%On RouteDrivers of Change Rollout of ultra-rapid charging infrastructure at“on route”locations(fuel forecourts)is accelerating,supported by significant government investments.Supplier economics
19、of ultra-rapid chargers are more attractive.Ultra-rapid chargers represent the most attractive charging proposition to consumers,particularly for unplanned or“distressed”missions.Share Evolution to 20302020 Share of Chargec.5%OC&C The forecourt of the future|07As fuel volumes decline,its likely that
20、 fuel margin percentages will increase.We saw precisely this during the Covid-19 pandemic:as volumes declined,the industry reacted by increasing its margins.But the margins on electricity at super-fast and ultra-fast charging sites are also higher.In absolute terms,fast charge electricity margins ar
21、e two or three times higher than for fuel per refuelling stop.1.Greater margin growthEstimates based on pre-2022 price levels:EV:50kWh battery capacity|0.41/kWh Charge rate on street/destination|0.60/kWh charge rate on routeICE:45l fuel tank capacity,90%of capacity refuelled,2.12/litre fuel priceSou
22、rce:Expert Interviews,Desk Research,OC&C analysisRECHARGING AN EV PROVIDES 2X MORE MARGIN TO FORECOURT OPERATORS THAN REFUELLING AN ICEEstimated gross margin by location%Estimated refuelling cost and margin by location (ex VAT)Factor vs absolute fuel margin x times15%26%55%6819131397%Petr
23、olOn RouteDestinationOn StreetMarginCostsx0.4x0.7x2.2Share gain of on route presents an opportunity for forecourts to offer public,fast-charging sites,with two key areas for investors to note:08|OC&C The forecourt of the futureUK EXAMPLE:WHEN CHOOSING WHERE TO CHARGE THEIR EVS,DRIVERS CARE MOST ABOU
24、T CHARGING SPEED,CHARGING COST AND LOCATION CONVENIENCEKPCs in Choosing Charging Location4,2021%Total Respondents Ranking in Top 3SpeedCostConvenience41%39%31%Safe Environment25%Ease of Use28%Reliability of Chargers25%Familiarity20%Number of Chargers16%Proximity to other Facillities(e.g.supermarket)
25、19%Good Onsite Facilities (e.g.QSR)18%Charging Brand14%Loyalty Scheme/Subscription12%Recommended by App12%4.Generally speaking,when you charge your EV,what are the most important criteria in where you choose to charge?Source:OC&C EV Survey Jan 22,OC&C analysis.3.How much of a premium would you be wi
26、lling to pay for ultra-fast charging compared to non-ultra-fast charging?UK EXAMPLE:CHARGING AT HOME IS C.2.5X CHEAPER THAN“ON ROUTE”,HOWEVER MOST CONSUMERS ARE WILLING TO PAY A PREMIUM FOR ULTRA-RAPID CHARGEEconomics of Consumer ChargingWillingness to Pay For Ultra-Rapid Charging3(%Respondents Char
27、ging at Petrol Stations,N=442)N=44217%83%Unwilling to pay extraWould be willing to pay extraThe advantage of charging en route for the consumer is speed.We found that 83%of consumers are willing to pay a premium for ultra-rapid charging.In the UK,EV drivers already prioritise speed over cost when co
28、nsidering where to charge their vehicle,with 41%of those we surveyed ranking it as their main consideration,followed by 39%for cost and 31%highlighting convenience as their primary concern.OC&C The forecourt of the future|09In addition,even with ultra-rapid charging,dwell time for EV drivers is pred
29、icted to be three times that experienced by drivers of vehicles with internal combustion engines(ICE).At present,the dwell time for an EV charge is between 30 and 40 minutes.In the future,we anticipate this will reduce to between 15 and 20 minutes,but this is still significant compared against the c
30、urrent dwell time of,on average,three minutes.Theres already evidence,that the longer dwell time drives higher non-fuel spend.60%of EV drivers are more likely to spend on non-fuel items,compared to 40%of ICE drivers.Our findings also show that on average EV drivers will spend at least double the amo
31、unt too.2.Longer driver dwell timeEstimates based on pre-2022 price levels Source:OC&C Fuel Survey Jan 22,OC&C analysis.UK EXAMPLE:IN ADDITION,EV CUSTOMERS WHO STOP TO CHARGE AT A FORECOURT SPEND 2-3X MORE ON RETAIL THAN CONVENTIONAL DRIVERSRetail Purchasing Behaviour EV ICE%customers who transact i
32、nto non-fuel60%40%xAverage food retail transaction value12-147-8=Average per visit food retail spend7-82-3=Implied gross profit uplift per visit,at 30%margin2-3110|OC&C The forecourt of the futureWe see five potential drivers of value forecourt operators should consider now in order to prepare for t
33、he future.Five ways to futureproof forecourtsInvest in new power sourcesDevelop retail 2.0As EV charging and alternative fuels win consumer share in the coming years,the time to expand forecourt energy supply and infrastructure is now.Longer consumer dwell times offer the opportunity to develop new
34、retail propositions.These should be tailored to the forecourts locations,as consumers on highways will have different needs and expectations to those who are charging in urban areas.For example,forecourts could add value for consumers(and increase revenue)with a range of services appropriate to each
35、 sites location such as click and collect,enhanced shopping experiences and ultra fast valet services.12OC&C The forecourt of the future|11Optimise pricingLook again at the networkReimagine the services on offerAs is the case now,there will be opportunity to localise fuel pricing in order to outperf
36、orm smaller and less sophisticated operators.With EV charging,theres also the potential to vary pricing depending on the time of day,for example,differentiating for busy periods,and thus creating additional margin.Now is the time for forecourt businesses to rethink their service station offering the
37、 balance between urban and highway forecourts for example,and the range of services available depending on site,usage and geography and for investors to consider tailored investment (and divestment)decisions across their network.What makes a forecourt location attractive will change in an EV chargin
38、g environment,and operators will need to recalibrate as a result.Given the often prime positioning of forecourts,theres an opportunity to diversify the usage of their sites for example,those situated in central urban areas could host dark kitchens for delivery services,creating an additional revenue
39、 stream for the owners of the site.With clever reimagining and sound investment,the forecourt will not only remain a fixture of our future urban landscapes,but has the potential to offer plenty more for investors and consumers alike.345OFFICESBelo HorizonteBostonHong KongLondonMelbourneMilanMunichNe
40、w YorkParisRotterdamSo PauloShanghaiSydneyW OC&C Strategy Consultants 2022Trademarks and logos,including Uncommon Sense,are registered trademarks of OC&C Strategy Consultants and its licensors.To share your experience,to start your strategy shake-up,or continue the discussion,please get in touch:Tom Gladstone,PCasper Roex,Associate PMatt Wills,Associate Partner