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1、iEnvisaging the Future of CitiesEnvisagingthe Future of CitiesWorld Cities Report 2022WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022iiWorld Cities Report 2022 First published 2022 by United Nations Human Settlements Programme(UN-Habitat)Copyright United Nations Human Settlements Programme,2022All rights reservedUnited Na
2、tions Human Settlements Programme(UN-Habitat)P.O.Box 30030,Nairobi,Kenya Website:www.unhabitat.orgDISCLAIMERThe designations employed and the presentation of the material in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concern
3、ing the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries,or regarding its economic system or degree of development.The analysis,conclusions and recommendations of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the
4、 United Nations Human Settlements Programme or its Executive Board.The Report is produced with official data provided by governments and additional information gathered by the Global Urban Observatory.Cities and countries are invited to update data relevant to them.It is important to acknowledge tha
5、t data varies according to definition and sources.While UN-Habitat checks data provided to the fullest extent possible,the responsibility for the accuracy of the information lies with the original providers of the data.Information contained in this Report is provided without warranty of any kind,eit
6、her express or implied,including,without limitation,warranties of merchantability,fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement.UN-Habitat specifically does not make any warranties or representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any such data.Under no circumstances shall UN-Habitat
7、be liable for any loss,damage,liability or expense incurred or suffered that is claimed to have resulted from the use of this Report,including,without limitation,any fault,error,omission with respect thereto.The use of this Report is at the Users sole risk.Under no circumstances,including,but not li
8、mited to negligence,shall UN-Habitat or its affiliates be liable for any direct,indirect,incidental,special or consequential damages,even if UN-Habitat has been advised of the possibility of such damages.HS Number:HS/004/22EISBN Number(Series):978-92-1-133395-4ISBN Number:978-92-1-132894-3Envisaging
9、 the Future of CitiesiiiSecretary Generals ForewordIn 2016,the international community adopted the New Urban Agenda to harness the power of sustainable urbanization to achieve our global goals of peaceful,prosperous societies on a healthy planet.Despite progress since then,the COVID-19 pandemic and
10、other crises have posed huge challenges.Urban areas were particularly hard hit by the pandemic underscoring the importance of stepping up efforts to build a more sustainable and equitable urban future.Local is the space where we connect the dots.Cities and towns can spearhead innovations to bridge t
11、he inequalities gaps,deliver climate action and ensure a green and inclusive recovery from the pandemic especially as the proportion of people living in urban areas is projected to grow to 68 per cent by 2050.The World Cities Report 2022 stresses that building resilience must be at the heart of the
12、cities of the future.The success of cities,towns and urban areas will largely depend on policies that protect and sustain all,leaving no one behind.We need green investment for sustainable patterns of consumption and production;responsive and inclusive urban planning;the prioritization of public hea
13、lth;and innovation and technology for all.These steps will help cities adapt and respond to shocks and stresses and lead our world to a resilient,just,and sustainable urban future.Antnio GuterresSecretary-General of the United NationsWORLD CITIES REPORT 2022ivExecutive Directors IntroductionMaimunah
14、 Mohd Sharif Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director United Nations Human Settlements Programme(UN-Habitat)In February 2020,as UN-Habitat announced that the 2022 World Urban Forum will be hosted by Poland in the city of Katowice,we could not imagine that the world would go into lockdown.The C
15、OVID-19 pandemic created a temporary crisis of confidence in the future of cities as urban dwellers across the world,especially in large cities,fled to the perceived safety of the countryside or to smaller towns.At the peak of the pandemic,what were once bustling cities became desolate as residents
16、disappeared from public spaces during enforced lockdowns.Today,in 2022,many cities have begun to resemble their old selves,cautiously returning to the way they operated previously.There is a broad consensus that urbanization remains a powerful twenty-first century mega-trend.A sense of optimism is r
17、eturning that the pandemic is providing us with the opportunity to build back differently.Can our children inherit an urban future that is more inclusive,greener,safer and healthier?If the world were to experience another pandemic or major threat,would our cities and towns be sufficiently prepared b
18、ased on what we have learned over the last two years?Would our cities have developed a robust system of resilience to respond to and withstand future shocks?I recall mayors and city managers asking:how do we build back better,greener and inclusively?The answer lies with what we have learned and adop
19、ted as best practices responding to COVID-19 and the climate crisis.We must start by acknowledging that the status quo leading up to 2020 was in many ways an unsustainable model of urban development.To meet this challenge,the future of cities must respond to pressing urban challenges in different pa
20、rts of the world.An optimistic scenario of urban futures will reduce inequality and poverty,foster productive and inclusive urban economies,invest sustainably to promote clean energy and protect ecosystems,and prioritize Envisaging the Future of CitiesvThe vision of sustainable and equitable urban f
21、utures will not be guaranteed unless cities and subnational governments take bold and decisive actions to address both chronic and emerging urban challengespublic health.These ambitions,in turn,must be facilitated by responsive urban planning and multilevel governance systems in which finance,innova
22、tion and technology play overarching roles.While the COVID-19 pandemic has occupied a significant share of global attention since 2020,it is far from the only threat facing the future of cities.High inflation and unemployment,slow economic growth,looming recession,mounting public debts,supply chain
23、disruptions,armed conflicts,and a global food and energy crisis amount to a bitter cocktail of contemporary challenges.Unless concerted action is taken,millions of poor and vulnerable families across the world will continue to live in a future that is unfolding without the necessary safeguards and o
24、ne that eclipses their dreams of a better urban future.Building economic,social and environmental resilience,including appropriate governance and institutional structures,must be at the heart of the future of cities.Economic resilience with new fiscal sustainability frameworks,societal resilience wi
25、th universal social protection schemes,climate resilience with greener investments,and stronger multilevel collaboration to confront future shocks must be the main building blocks of a resilient future that can withstand and respond to the various threats and shocks that urban areas face.The World C
26、ities Report 2022 envisages an optimistic scenario of urban futures that relies on collaborative and effective interventions to tackle multidimensional poverty and inequalities;promote vibrant,resilient,diversified urban economies and productive urban futures;build healthy and thriving cities;streng
27、then the drive towards green urban futures;promote well-planned and managed urbanization processes;and ensure inclusive digital economies for the future.The optimistic scenario envisions concerted policy action facilitated by the implementation of the New Urban Agenda.It has now been over five years
28、 since the New Urban Agenda was adopted at the Habitat III summit in 2016 and the implementation framework must be amplified to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by making transformative progress in addressing the multiple challenges confronting cities both now and in the future.The Report r
29、eaffirms that the vision for the future of cities must embody the“new social contract”in the form of universal basic income,universal health coverage and universal housing and basic services.This proposal was first articulated in the 2021 UN-Habitat report Cities and Pandemics:Towards a More Just,Gr
30、een and Healthy Future and remains more urgent than ever.The vision of sustainable and equitable urban futures will not be guaranteed unless cities and subnational governments take bold and decisive actions to address both chronic and emerging urban challenges.Without urgent and transformative polic
31、y action at all levels,the current situation will only get worse.The urgency of new approaches for transformative change in cities cannot be overemphasized.Within this Decade of Action window,it is urgent for cities and subnational governments to adopt innovative approaches that will foster the opti
32、mistic scenario of urban futures.The New Urban Agenda provides a holistic framework for urban development that encourages the integration of all facets of sustainable development to promote equality,welfare and shared prosperity.Our cities and towns must mainstream these commitments in their local d
33、evelopment plans with a deliberate focus on tackling inequality,poverty and climate change,among other challenges.Sustainable urban futures remain a cornerstone of the fight to ensure that cities are better prepared for the next crisis.WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022viAcknowledgementsAuthors:UN-Habitat Cor
34、e TeamNeil Khor(Division Director);Ben Arimah(Chief of Unit and Task Manager);Raymond Otieno Otieno;Matthijs van Oostrum;Mary Mutinda;Judith Oginga MartinsAuthors:ExternalGodwin Arku;Vanesa Castn Broto;Merlin Chatwin;Lewis Dijkstra;Simon Joss:Ayyoob Sharifi;Alice Sverdlik;David Simon;Pietro Florio;S
35、ergio Freire;Thomas Kemper;Michele Melchiorri;Marcello Schiavina;Alfredo Alessandrini;Fabrizio Natale;Daniela Ghio;Olivier Draily;Linda Westman;Ping Huang;Enora Robin;Hita UnnikrishnanStatistical AnnexRobert Ndugwa;Donatien Beguy;Dennis Mwaniki;Julius Majale;Amos Thairu;Kevin Nyamai;Edwin Kochulem;D
36、aniel Githira;Linda Mwongeli;Martin Runguma;Carol S.Akoth.Contributors:UN-Habitat StaffRaf Tuts;Robert Ndugwa;Donatien Beguy;Dennis Mwaniki;Remy Sietchiping;Shipra Narang Suri;Paula Pennanen-Rebeiro-Hargrave;Paulius Kulikauskas;Katharina Rochell;Xing Quan Zhang;Chris Williams;Filiep Decorte;Anne Ami
37、n;Rafael Forero;Maria Tellez Soler;Angela Mwai;Cecilia Andersson;Lucia Kiwala;Stefanie Holzwarth;Janene Tuniz;Rosa Muraguri-Mwololo;Graham Alabaster;Isabel Wetzel;John Omwamba;Lennart FleckContributors:ExternalSusan Parnell;James Duminy;Elmond Bandauko;Karen Vankerkoerle;Maximilian Kriz;Jasmin Cook;
38、Roberto Rocco;Abdellah Abarkan;Oliver Lah;Nathalie RoebbelAdministrative Support TeamCaroline Gaceru;Brenda Gacheru;Nelly Kangethe;Shova KhatryIT Support for Expert Group MeetingsLeon Osong;Moshy SavegodInternational Advisory BoardChristine Platt;John Ebohon;Taibat Lawanson;Yu Zhu;Matt Benson;Nikola
39、i Bobylev;Ryan Centner;Bharat Dahiya;Carol ArcherFinancial SupportGovernment of Sweden Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy,Government of PolandAbu Dhabi Department of Municipalities and Transport,United Arab Emirates Editorial ConsultantGregory Scruggs Communications and Media Team Kat
40、erina Bezgachina;Victor Mgendi;Ivy Mutisya Design and Layout:Peter Cheseret;Michael LusabaCreative Direction:Andrea PosadaIllustrations:Ana Mara OspinaWeb Development:Andrew Ouko,Joshua GichuhiEnvisaging the Future of CitiesviiContentsSecretary Generals Foreword.vExecutive Directors Introduction.viA
41、cknowledgements.viiiContents.ixList of Boxes,Figures,Maps and Tables.xiAcronyms and Abbreviations.xvKey Findings and Messages.xviiChapter 1:The Diversity of Cities and Visions for Urban Futures.11.1 What Futures for Cities?.31.2 Pandemic Lessons for the Future of Cities.61.3 The Diversity of Urban F
42、utures.91.4 Possible Scenarios for Urban Futures.171.5 Visions of Urban Futures.201.6 Pathways to Sustainable Urban Futures.241.7 Concluding Remarks.29Chapter 2:Scenarios of Urban Futures:Degree of Urbanization.312.1.The Degree of Urbanization and Why it is Important?.332.2.City Population Continues
43、 Growing as Towns and Rural Areas Experience Slowdown.392.3.What is Driving Population Growth in Cities?.432.4.Growth in Cities is Slowing Down,but Less for Large Cities.492.5.Sustainable Futures:How Dense Should Our Cities Be?.612.6.Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy.69Chapter 3:Poverty and
44、Inequality:Enduring Features of an Urban Future?.713.1.Urban Poverty and Inequality:A Multidimensional Perspective.743.2.Trends in Poverty and Inequality:Implications for Urban Futures .763.3.A Global Snapshot of Inequality Trends .783.4.Urban Poverty in Developing Regions:Trends and Challenges for
45、the Future of Cities.793.5.Urban Poverty in Developed Regions:Implications for Urban Futures .853.6.Urban Inequalities in Developing Regions:Matters Arising for Urban Futures .853.7.Urban Inequalities in Developed Regions and the Future of Cities .883.8.Responding to Poverty and Inequality in Cities
46、 .893.9.Transformative Policies for Inclusive and Equitable Urban Futures.953.10.Success Factors for Social Protection Policies in Urban Areas.973.11.Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy .99Chapter 4:Resilient Urban Economies:A Catalyst for Productive Futures.1034.1.Conceptualizing Urban Econom
47、ic Resilience .1064.2.Urban Economies of Cities in Developing Countries .1094.3.Urban Economies of Cities in Developed Countries .1194.4.Towards Resilient Urban Economies and Productive Urban Futures .1224.5.Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy .137Chapter 5:Securing a Greener Urban Future.1395
48、.1.Urban Transitions to Net Zero GHG Emissions.1415.2.The Future of Urban Transportation.1495.3.Embracing Resilience for Greener Urban Futures.1555.4.Nature-based Solutions and Environmental Futures.1655.5.Inclusive Planning Processes .1695.6.Building Global Urban Partnerships.1745.7.Concluding Rema
49、rks and Lessons for Policy.175Chapter 6:Urban Planning for the Future of Cities.1796.1.Urban Planning for Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery.1836.2.Retrofitting Urban Spaces for Safe Social Distancing.1896.3.Promoting Compact Urban Development .1956.4.Planning for the Future of Public Transport Syst
50、ems.2016.5.The Importance of Spatial Scales and Analysis for the Future of Urban Planning.2066.6.Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy.209Chapter 7:Public Health and Sustainable Urban Futures .2117.1.Towards a Multilayered,Intersectional Understanding of Urban Health.2147.2 Advancing Urban Healt
51、h Equity .228WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022viii7.3 Envisaging Health for Sustainable Urban Futures.2337.4 Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy .240Chapter 8:Rethinking Urban Governance for the Future of Cities.2438.1.Urban Governance Lessons from a Global Pandemic .2458.2.Urban Governance that Drives
52、 and Sustains Urban Futures.2478.3.Emerging Urban Governance Responses to Five Pervasive Challenges.2638.4.Divergent Urban Governance Futures .2688.5.Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy .271Chapter 9:Innovation and Technology:Towards Knowledge-Based Urban Futures.2739.1.Future Cities as Places
53、 of Innovation.2759.2.Frontier Technologies for Variegated Urban Futures .2809.3.Automation,Digitalization and the Future of Work.2859.4.Cities Responses to Digital and Environmental Divides .2889.5.Technological Tools for Inclusive Governance.2929.6.Towards Responsible Innovation .2969.7.Concluding
54、 Remarks and Lessons for Policy.299Chapter 10:Building Resilience for Sustainable Urban Futures.30110.1.Defining,Understanding and Measuring Resilience.30410.2.Economic Resilience.30710.3.Social Resilience.31210.4.Environmental Resilience.31410.5.Institutional Resilience.31910.6 Final Reflections:Bu
55、ilding Resilience for Optimistic Urban Futures .325Statistical Annex.329References.359Envisaging the Future of CitiesixList of Boxes,Figures,Maps and TablesList of BoxesBox 1.1:Five lessons from the COVD-19 pandemic.8Box 1.3:The Vision of“Cities for All”.21Box 2.1:Levels and classes in the Degree of
56、 Urbanization methodology.35Box 2.2:Advantages of the Degree of Urbanization methodology:A summary.36Box 2.3:Projections and data sources for the Degree of Urbanization methodology.38Box 2.4:Different drivers of population change.45Box 2.5:City size classification.49Box 2.6:Shrinking cities:Planning
57、 for future growth while anticipating decline.59Box 2.7:Making room for future urban expansion:Minimal actions.66Box 3.1:The“troubled spots”of residential segregation in United States cities .88Box 3.2.Building the resilience of“urban weak spots”to future shocks.93Box 3.3:Moving Urban Poor Communiti
58、es in the Philippines Towards Resilience(MOVE UP)Model.94Box 3.4:Chinas integrated urban social programme Dibao .97Box 4.1:Informal economy:Surviving,managing,thriving in conflict-affected situations.114Box 4.2:Urban and territorial planning,infrastructure investment and structural transformation .1
59、16Box 4.3:European Regional Development Fund empowering urban and territorial authorities.121Box 4.4:Windsors L.I.F.T economic diversification strategy.124Box 4.5:Innovative municipal finance mobilization using land value capture in Hargeisa,Somaliland .132Box 4.6:Freetown is reforming its property
60、tax system.133Box 5.1:Lets make a“Green”Deal:Infrastructure,jobs and the green economy.144Box 5.2:Green recovery:Commitments and actions misaligned?.148Box 5.3 Car-free and carefree:The movement to open streets for people.151Box 5.4:Urbanization and climate impacts.156Box 5.5:Job comparison between
61、green and unsustainable investment types.168Box 5.6:Post-COVID-19 resilience in informal settlements.171Box 5.7.Participatory approaches to future visioning and scenario planning.173Box 5.8:Transnational municipal networks in global environmental governance.175Box 6.1:Global emissions almost back to
62、 pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020.186Box 6.2:UN-Habitat expands COVID-19 prevention in Kenyas Mathare and Kibera informal settlements through youth-led groups.187Box 6.3:Regulating the short-term rental market.188Box 6.4:Scaling up safe street designs in Addis Ababa.193Box 6.5:Sa
63、n Francisco makes four Slow Streets permanent.198Box 6.6:Harambee urban farms fill a crucial void for Black,Latinx families during the pandemic.209Box 7.1:HIV/AIDS epidemic statistics as of 2020.215Box 7.2:Armed conflicts worsen health in cities.224Box 7.3:Using technology to bridge access to dement
64、ia care in Gangdong-du City,Republic of Korea.228Box 7.4:Inequitable impact of air pollution in Greater Accra,Ghana .232Box 7.5:Lessons from the health in all policies approach in Richmond,US to foster health equity and climate resilience,reduce violence and discrimination,and promote social justice
65、.234Box 7.6:Pro-poor strategies to expand universal health coverage.238Box 8.1:Chatbot initiative in Mutare,Zimbabwe.248Box 8.3:Living Labs:Capacity building through experimentation.256Box 8.4:How community participation built new roads for Old Accra.259Box 9.1:Examples of frontier technologies in u
66、rban contexts .281Box 9.2:Digital microwork in an informal settlement in Windhoek .286Box 9.3:Bridging the digital divide in Toronto.291Box 9.4:Marginalized youth as citizen scientists in Eskilstuna,Sweden.294Box 9.5:Collaborative assessment of future drone technology in the UK.297Box 9.6:Mitigation
67、 measures for environmental risks.298Box 10.1:The City Resilience Index(CRI).305Box 10.2:ICLEIs Urban Natural Assets for Africa Programme(UNA).315Box 10.3:Comprehensive city resilience strategies:Buenos Aires,Cape Town and Gothenburg.325Box 10.4:Five climate action pathways to urban transformation.3
68、27WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xList of FiguresFigure 1.1:Urban and rural population of the world(1950-2030).5Figure 1.2:Cities where the population declined between 2000 and 2018.13Figure 1.3:Possible Scenarios for Urban Futures.18Figure 1.4:Pathways to sustainable urban futures.24Figure 2.1:Population
69、by Degree of Urbanization and in nationally defined urban areas by SDG regions and income group,2015.34Figure 2.2:City population growth through expansion,annexation and new cities in Hanoi,Viet Nam and Debrecen,Hungary.37Figure 2.3:Evolution of population by degree of urbanization 19502070 in absol
70、ute and relative terms.40Figure 2.4:Population share by degree of urbanization and SDG region(19502070)ordered by city population share in 1950.41Figure 2.5:Population share by degree of urbanization and income level(19502070).42Figure 2.6:Land covered by cities,towns and semi-dense areas,19752070.4
71、3Figure 2.7:Land covered by cities,towns and semi-dense areas and income group,19752070.44Figure 2.8:Components of city population growth,19602070.46Figure 2.9:The role of reclassification in city population growth during the previous decade,20302070.47Figure 2.10:City population growth between 2020
72、 and 2030 by city size,income group and source of growth.48Figure 2.11:Population share by age group in cities,towns and semi-dense areas,and rural areas in 1950,2020 and 2050.49Figure 2.12:Growth in the number of cities 19752070 by income group.50Figure 2.13 Growth in the number of cities 19752070
73、by region of the world.50Figure 2.14:Number of cities with at least 1 or 5 million inhabitants per region,20202070.51Figure 2.15:City population by city size and income group,19752070.55Figure 2.16:Growth of the number of cities by population size and income group,1975-2070.56Figure 2.17:Growth of c
74、ity land by income group and region,19752070.57Figure 2.18:City land by city size and income group,19752070(thousand square kilometres).60Figure 2.19:Maputo in 2020 and in 2050 under three different scenarios.62Figure 2.20:City expansion under three development scenarios in Medellin,Lusaka,Taejon an
75、d Hamburg.63Figure 2.21:City population density by income group and region,19752015.63Figure 2.22:Population density in cities in 1990 and 2020 and in three different scenarios in 2050 by income group and SDG region (density in inhabitants per sq.km).65Figure 2.23:City land in 1990,2020 and in three
76、 scenarios in 2050 by income group and SDG region(city land in 2020=100).67Figure 3.1:Multidimensional nature of urban poverty.74Figure 3.2:Complex web of multidimensional urban inequalities:drivers and outcomes.75Figure 3.3:Extreme poverty rates by region in a no COVID-19 scenario.76Figure 3.4:Urba
77、n population of multidimensionally poor(millions).77Figure 3.5:Percentage of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Sub-Saharan African countries(20162030).79Figure 3.6:Proportion of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Asian countries(20162030).80Figure 3.7:Percent
78、age of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Latin American and Caribbean countries(20162030).81Figure 3.8.COVID-19 exacerbates pre-existing urban vulnerabilities .84Figure 3.9:The differential consequences of the urban services divide on the poor.87Figure 3.10:Urban services divide
79、 leads to higher burden for the underserved.87Figure 3.11:People at risk of poverty or social exclusion in European cities(2017).89Figure 3.12:Multidimensional approach to equitable urban futures .90Figure 3.13:Pillars of urban social protection.96Figure 3.14.The A,B,C and D of urban social protecti
80、on design .98Figure 4.1:Conceptualization of urban economic resilience.107Figure 4.2:Key dimensions of resilience building for urban economies .108Figure 4.3:Urbanization and growth in selected Eastern Asian countries .109Figure 4.4:Urbanization without economic transformation in Africa.110Figure 4.
81、5:Share of firms in internationally tradable and non-tradable sectors in selected developing country cities .111Figure 4.6:Share of informal employment in total employment by area of residence .112Figure 4.7:Informal employment in selected developing country cities.113Figure 4.8:The CDC dilemma faci
82、ng African urban economies.115Figure 4.9:Dynamics of asymmetrical development in secondary cities in developing countries .117Figure 4.10:Own source revenue per capita of local governments by country income group(US$).118Figure 4.11:Transformative pathways towards resilient urban economies and produ
83、ctive urban futures.123Figure 4.12:Main objectives for cities and regions to transition to a circular economy.125Figure 4.13:The 3Ps framework for adopting the circular economy in cities.126Figure 4.14:Policy interventions to build the resilience of the informal sector .128Figure 4.15:Pillars of the
84、 Sustainable Urban Futures Fund.131Figure 4.16:4Rs of urban finance for economic resilience .132Figure 4.17:Creating an enabling environment for scaling-up investment.133Figure 4.18:Employment-to-population ratio by sex,20192022.135Figure 4.19:The Digitalisation Academy model in the city of Vaasa,Fi
85、nland.136Figure 5.1:National-level pillars for supporting local climate action.144Envisaging the Future of CitiesxiFigure 5.2:Models of net zero development in urban areas.145Figure 5.3:Public transport:coverage and share of population with convenient access,2020.149Figure 5.4:Characteristics of inc
86、lusive adaptation planning .159Figure 5.5:Access to basic water facilities.161Figure 5.6:Access to basic sanitation facilities.161Figure 5.7:Benefits and limitations of nature-based solutions .167Figure 6.1:Reductions in NO2 concentrations over India following COVID-19 lockdowns.184Figure 6.2:Short-
87、term comparison of PM2.5 levels in major cities before,during and after lockdown restrictions imposed by governments at the beginning of the pandemic.185Figure 6.3:Temporary reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions during the first half of 2020 and rapid recovery in the second half.185Figure 6.4
88、:Guidelines for a safe return to the office during COVID-19.191Figure 6.5:Spatial strategies for restaurants in response to COVID-19.194Figure 6.6:The 15-Minute Paris 200Figure 6.7:Representation of the 20-minute neighbourhood in the Melbourne Plan.201Figure 6.8:Impacts of COVID-19 on public transit
89、 ridership between 2020 and 2021 in a 25-city research.202Figure 6.9:The link between traffic fatality rates and public transport ridership.202Figure 6.10:Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning.205Figure 6.11:Examples of instruments under an Avoid/Shift/Improve framework.206Figure 6.12:The City-Region
90、Food Systems(CRFS)approach.208Figure 7.1:Leading global causes of death(2000 and 2019).218Figure 7.2:Leading behavioural causes of mortality in 1990 and 2019 in Kisumu,Kenya(percentage of total deaths by risk factor).219Figure 7.3:Leading behavioural causes of mortality in 1990 and 2019 in Jakarta,I
91、ndonesia(percentage of total deaths by risk factor).220Figure 7.4:Causes of death in 2019 for Londons Borough of Kensington and Chelsea(wealthy neighbourhood)and Borough of Tower Hamlets(poorer neighbourhood).221Figure 7.5:Urban inequalities in measles vaccination rates as shown through differences
92、between non-slum urban areas and slums(in absolute per cent)for children aged 1223 months.222Figure 7.6:Skilled birth attendance in the Philippines:percentage of births with skilled health personnel in all urban slum areas,all non-slum urban areas,Manila slum areas and Manila non-slum areas(20032017
93、).223Figure 7.7:Child stunting in Bangladesh comparing all urban slum areas,all non-slum urban areas,Dhaka slum areas and Dhaka non-slum areas(20042018)based on percentage of children aged 059 months who are below minus two standard deviations from median height-for-age .223Figure 7.8:Framework on i
94、ntersecting,multi-level urban health inequities:key factors from global to city and individual scales.225Figure 7.9:Causes of injury deaths among adults by sex(aged 15 and older)in two of Nairobis informal settlements (January 2003December 2012,N=2,464).227Figure 7.10:Health,climate and livelihood/a
95、sset benefits of upgrading informal settlements.231Figure 7.11:Potential benefits of urban climate actions for health,adaptation and mitigation.236Figure 7.12:Towards Health Urbanism:Inclusive Equitable Sustainable(THRIVES)framework.237Figure 8.1:Alliance for Affordable Internet REACT Framework.249F
96、igure 8.2:Different kinds of metropolitan governance arrangements.251Figure 8.3:Women in local councils.252Figure 8.4:Share of revenue for subnational governments.261Figure 8.5:Governance challenges and innovations during the COVID-19 pandemic.265Figure 8.6.Share of people who trust their national g
97、overnment .270Figure 9.1:Most important practices to support innovation in cities .276Figure 9.2:Diagram showing the flows of energy in a positive energy district.278Figure 9.3:Five technological innovations that will shape the future of waste management.284Figure 9.4:Map of New York showing househo
98、lds without internet access:with concentration in the less affluent parts of the Bronx,Queens and Brooklyn.290Figure 9.5:City dashboard Bandung,Indonesia.293Figure 9.6:Screenshots from the QlueMyCity app,which utilizes citizen participation to identify problems across the city.294Figure 9.7:Living L
99、abs that are part of the European Network of living labs.295Figure 10.1:The Rockefeller-Arup City Resilience Index.306WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xiiList of MapsMap 2.1:City land area change,20202050.58Map 2.2:Population density in cities,2015.64Map 2.3:Total area change per city in a low-density scenar
100、io,20202050.68Map 2.4:Total area change per city in a high-density scenario,20202050.68Map 5.1:Percentage of urban population with access to basic sanitation facilities by country .157Map 5.2:Percentage of urban population with sewerage connections by country.157Map 5.3:Percentage of urban populatio
101、n with access to uncontaminated water by country.158Map 5.4:Percentage of urban population with access to piped water by country .158List of TablesTable 1.1:Top 15 crowdsourced answers to the question“What do you think the world will be like in 2050?”.4Table 1.2:Urban population and level of urbaniz
102、ation(20152050).9Table 1.3:Urban rate of change 20152050.10Table 2.1:Urban primacy by country size and income group or SDG region,2020.52Table 2.2:Population density in three development scenarios.61Table 3.1:Roles of specific actors in supporting informal sector workers .92Table 4.1:COVID-19 induce
103、d municipal revenue losses in selected European Union countries .121Table 5.1:Reducing emissions in the built environment,examples of actions.146Table 5.2:Approaches to sustainable urban mobility.150Table 5.3:Informal transport examples.155Table 5.4:Climate planning in Indian cities .160Table 5.5:Ma
104、intaining build environment capabilities for climate change mitigation and adaptation.163Table 5.6:Nature as a response to societal challenges .166Table 5.7:Institutions and methods that facilitate participation in urban planning and management.172Table 7.1:Potential reductions in premature mortalit
105、y for European cities if air quality guidelines are met .216Table 9.1:Examples of the digital divide and approaches to digital inclusion.290Table 9.2:Four risks of digitalization,and examples of mitigation measures.297Envisaging the Future of CitiesxiiiAcronyms and Abbreviations Euro Sterling poundA
106、BC Ahorro,Bono y Crdito(Savings,Bond and Credit)AI artificial intelligenceAMVA Metropolitan Area of Valle de Aburr ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian NationsASI avoid-shift-improveAU$Australian dollarB3W Build Back Better WorldBREEAM Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment MethodB
107、RICS Brazil,Russia,India,China and South AfricaBTI Bertelsmann transformation indexCASBEE comprehensive assessment system for built environment efficiencyCAV connected and autonomous vehiclesCDC Centers for Disease Control and PreventionCFRS city-region food systemsCHW community health workerCOPD ch
108、ronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseCOVID-19 coronavirus disease 2019 CRI city resilience indexDALY disability adjusted life yearEU European UnionEV electric vehicleFAO Food and Agriculture OrganizationFDI foreign direct investmentG20 Group of 20GBI green-blue infrastructureGCP gross city productGDP
109、gross domestic productGHG greenhouse gasGIZ Gesellschaft fr Internationale ZusammenarbeitGTA Greater Toronto AreaHHI Herfindahl-Hirschman indexHIA health impact assessment HiAP health in all policies ICLEI Local Governments for SustainabilityICT information and communications technologyIEA Internati
110、onal Energy AgencyIHD ischaemic heart diseaseILO International Labour OrganizationIoT internet of thingsIPBES Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem ServicesIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeITDP Institute for Transportation and Development PolicyJRC Join
111、t Research CentreLEED-ND Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design-Neighborhood DevelopmentWORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xivLGBTQI lesbian,gay,bisexual,transgender,queer and intersex MENA Middle East and North AfricaMERS Middle East respiratory syndromeNBSs nature-based solutionsNCD non-communicable d
112、iseaseNGO non-governmental organization NIMBY not-in-my-backyardNUA New Urban AgendaNUP national urban policyNZED net zero-energy districtsOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting CountriesPPP public-private partnershipPrEP pre-exposure prop
113、hylaxisPSUP Participatory Slum Upgrading ProgrammeR&D research and developmentSARS severe acute respiratory syndromeSDGs Sustainable Development GoalsSDI Shack/Slum Dwellers InternationalSMEs small and medium-sized enterprisesSPA special planning areasq.km square kilometreSSA Sub-Saharan AfricaSUFF
114、Sustainable Urban Futures FundSUMP sustainable urban mobility planTfL Transport for LondonTMNs transnational municipal networksUBI universal basic incomeUCLG United Cities and Local GovernmentsUHC universal health coverageUITP International Association of Public TransportUK United Kingdom of Great B
115、ritain and Northern IrelandUNCDF United Nations Capital Development FundUNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNEP United Nationals Environmental ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Co
116、nvention for Climate Change US United States of AmericaUS$United States dollarVLR voluntary local review WASH water,sanitation and hygieneWEF World Economic ForumWHO World Health OrganizationWIEGO Women in Informal Employment:Globalizing and OrganizingEnvisaging the Future of CitiesxvKey Findings an
117、d MessagesChapter 1The Diversity and Vision for the Future of CitiesWhile the COVID-19 pandemic dominated the two years between editions of the World Cities Report and upended many aspects of urban life,this Report comes at a time when world events create ever more dynamic environments for urban act
118、ors.Although most of the world has lifted the public health restrictions and border closures that made COVID-19 such a dominant aspect of urban life,the virus continues to flare up periodically and some countries still have strict measures in place.Recently,the world has witnessed a sudden global sp
119、ike in inflation and cost of living,alongside supply chain disruptions,which is severely affecting the recovery of urban economies.New and persistent armed conflicts have altered the geopolitical order and contributed to global economic uncertainty.The disruptive nature of the COVID-19 pandemic is a
120、 stark reminder that urban areas need to be prepared for dynamic and unpredictable futures.Cities across the world were totally unprepared for the magnitude of the economic and social impacts of the pandemic.The pandemic revealed and amplified long-standing weaknesses in the social structure of citi
121、es,resulting in disproportionate impacts on vulnerable and marginalized groups.Key lessons emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic are that urban areas must invest in preparedness,which requires developing the economic,social,environmental and institutional resilience to respond to a wide range of shock
122、s,including having contingency plans for the most vulnerable groups.The foregoing raises key questions about the future of cities.What kind of cities do we envisage and reimagine in the aftermath of the pandemic?What kind of cities are needed to support humanity in a predominantly urban world?How do
123、 cities prepare for an uncertain world?Building economic,social and environmental resilience,including appropriate governance and institutional structures,must be at the heart of the future of cities.To meet this challenge,sustainable urban futures must prioritize reduction in poverty and inequality
124、;foster productive and inclusive urban economies that provide opportunities for all;adopt environmental policies and actions that mitigate and adapt to climate change,promote clean energy and protect ecosystems;integrate public health into urban development;facilitated by responsive urban planning a
125、nd governance systems in which with finance,innovation and technology play overarching roles.Key FindingsCities are here to stay,and the future of humanity is undoubtedly urban:The experience in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic,when some residents fled large cities was a temporary response th
126、at will not fundamentally change the course of global urbanization.We are witnessing a world that will continue to urbanize over the next three decadesfrom 56 per cent in 2021 to 68 per cent in 2050.This translates into an increase of 2.2 billion urban residents,living mostly in Africa and Asia.All
127、regions of the world are expected to become more urbanized,although highly urbanized and more developed regions are expected to stabilize or experience a decline in urban growth.Unequivocally,this tells us that cities are here to stay,and that the future of humanity is undoubtedly urban,but not excl
128、usively in large metropolitan areas.The future of cities is not uniform across regions and can lead to a range of scenarios:While responding to climate change vulnerability and rising levels of inequality are global concerns,other issues are bifurcated by region.In developed countries,the key priori
129、ties for the future of cities also include managing cultural diversity,upgrading and modernizing ageing infrastructure,addressing shrinking and declining cities,and meeting the needs of an increasingly ageing population.In developing countries,urban priorities for the future are rising levels of pov
130、erty,providing adequate infrastructure,affordable and adequate housing and addressing challenge of slums,high levels of youth unemployment,and investing in secondary cities.How these challenges are addressed will lead to a range of future scenarios.The worst-case scenario of urban futures is that of
131、 high damage:In a high damage scenario,extreme poverty could increase by 32 per cent or 213 million by 2030.Under this scenario,the impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xvias well as global economic uncertainties,environmental challenges,and wars and conflicts in differen
132、t parts of the world could have long-term impacts on the future of cities.For instance,cities in Africa could lose up to two-thirds of their financial resources and the weak urban service delivery and governance systems in some of these cities could collapse.If global action against multiple urban c
133、hallenges fails and this bleak scenario becomes a reality,the credibility of the multilateral system would be compromised,thereby undermining coordination efforts to address urgent and pressing global issues.Business as usual will result in a pessimistic scenario:Returning to the pre-pandemic state
134、of affairs,also known as the Bad Old Deal,is characterized by the systemic discrimination and exclusion of the poor in urban agendas including the exclusion of informal sector workers,overreliance on fossil fuels,poorly planned and managed urbanization,low prioritization of public health in urban de
135、velopment,and entrenched digital inequalities,which collectively undermine the vision of achieving inclusive,resilient,and sustainable cities where no one is left behind.Globally,1.6 billion people or 20 per cent of the worlds population live in inadequate housing,of which one billion reside in slum
136、s and informal settlements.Under these conditions,the goal of eradicating poverty in all its forms by 2030 and leave no one behind will not be achieved.Without concerted efforts,the pessimistic scenario could lead to new forms of urban vulnerabilities in the future that would disproportionately affe
137、ct already disadvantaged and vulnerable groups.Changing course to a sustainable path can lead to an optimistic scenario:With concerted policy action through the effective implementation of the New Urban Agenda as a framework for achieving the SDGs,it is possible for cities to avoid either of the hig
138、h damage or pessimistic scenarios and instead emerge into a more optimistic future.This scenario involves collaborative,well-coordinated and effective multilateral interventions to leverage the opportunities and address the challenges of urbanization.With appropriately implemented measures,the respo
139、nse to the current urban crisis can lead to a collective reprioritization of cities across the world towards shared prosperity and inclusion.Key MessagesUrbanization is intertwined with several existential global challenges:Cities do not exist in isolation from global challenges.The emergence of urb
140、anization as a global mega-trend is intertwined with the existential challenges that the world has faced in the last 50 years,including climate change,rising inequality and the rise in zoonotic viruses with the latest being the novel coronavirus pandemic,which triggered the worst public health crisi
141、s in a century and the worst economic recession since the Great Depression.These challenges will in different ways,leave their imprints on the future of cities.Building resilience must be at the heart of the future of cities:Building economic,social and environmental resilience,including appropriate
142、 governance and institutional structures,must be at the heart of the future of cities.Envisaging the Future of CitiesxviiEconomic resilience with new fiscal sustainability frameworks,societal resilience with universal social protection schemes,climate resilience with greener investments and stronger
143、 multilevel collaboration to confront future shocks must be the building blocks of a resilient urban future.Urban areas need to be prepared for dynamic and unpredictable futures:The disruptive nature of COVID-19,supply chain disruptions,high inflation,climate change and armed conflicts are all remin
144、ders that urban areas need to be prepared for an ever-changing and unpredictable future.Our urbanizing world must be adequately equipped for effective response to a broad range of shocks,and at the same time,transition to more sustainable,just,green,resilient and healthy futures.Global threats requi
145、re concerted action,which can only be achieved in the spirit of solidarity and cooperation,as no single government or multilateral agency can address such threats alone.Any vision for an optimistic future of cities must embody a new social contract with universal basic income,health coverage and hou
146、sing:Following the disruptions wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic,an emerging vision for an optimistic future in cities is one that embodies a new social contract in the form of universal basic income,universal health coverage and universal housing and basic services.The emerging vision should seek to
147、 make cities more equitable,one that is greener and more knowledge-based and is resilient across multiple dimensions.Localizing the New Urban Agenda and SDG 11 is the most promising pathway to the optimistic scenario of urban futures:The global impacts and disruption triggered by the coronavirus pan
148、demic,much of which played out in urban areas,have simply added a sense of urgency and the demand for a change to some of the unsustainable practices in the journey towards more sustainable urban futures.The path to sustainable urban futures will be determined by inclusive and transformative policie
149、s to eradicate poverty and inequality;produce urban economies that provide opportunities for all;generate greener investment for sustainable consumption and production patterns;set the framework for responsive urban and territorial planning;implement collaborative and integrated systems of urban gov
150、ernance;prioritize public health;deploy inclusive innovation and technology;and build resilience,which enables cities to respond to and withstand a wide range of shocks.The localization and effective implementation of the New Urban Agenda serves as a framework for integrating the interrelated compon
151、ents that constitute these pathways.Chapter 2 Scenarios of Urban Futures:Degree of UrbanizationA new harmonized definition,called the Degree of Urbanization,facilitates international comparisons of urbanization.By defining three main classes of human settlements(cities,towns and semi-dense areas,and
152、 rural areas),the Degree of Urbanization captures the urban-rural continuum as recommended by research.It provides a pathway to overcoming the fundamental challenge linked to monitoring urban trends and the development agendas that has lingered over the years:the lack of a unified definition of what
153、 constitutes“urban”and its precise measurement.This chapter provides a unique perspective on future trends using Degree of Urbanization and data emanating from this new harmonized approach.Specifically,it provides scenarios that allow us to understand the anticipated demographic and spatial changes
154、across the urban-rural continuum in various regions as well as their drivers.Key findingsFast-paced global growth in city population is behind us and a future slowdown is in the offing across the urban-rural continuum:New research using the harmonized definition“Degree of Urbanization”indicates that
155、 demographic growth has already started to slow down and is projected to continue over the coming decades.While the city population share doubled from 25 per cent in 1950 to about 50 per cent in 2020,it is projected to slowly increase to 58 per cent over the next 50 years.The share of other settleme
156、nts in the urban-rural continuum(towns and semi-dense areas as well as rural areas)is expected to decrease;towns and semi-dense areas are expected to drop to 24 per cent(from 29 per cent in 2020)and that of rural areas to 18 per cent(from 22 per cent).A slowdown does not indicate no growththe popula
157、tion of cities in low-income countries is projected to grow nearly two and a half times by 2070:Low-income countries have much higher absolute and relative city population growth than higher income countries.From 1975 to 2020,their city population grew fourfold to about 300 million.By 2070,their pop
158、ulation is projected to exceed 700 million.Additionally,projections show that,between 2020 and 2070,the number of cities in low-income countries will grow far more than in the rest of the worldan increase of 76 per cent,compared to 6 per cent in upper-middle-income WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xviiicount
159、ries.High-income and lower-middle-income countries will see an increase of about 20 per cent.Most expansion of city land area will occur in low-income countrieswithout effective planning,urban sprawl might become a low-income country phenomenon:The new data show that changes over the next five decad
160、esin terms of growth of city land area from 2020 levelswill mostly take place in low-income countries(141 per cent),lower-middle-income(44 per cent)and high-income countries(34 per cent).Changes in upper-middle-income countries is projected to be relatively small(13 per cent).This growth is projecte
161、d to be highest in Oceania and Sub-Saharan Africa,where it is estimated to(almost)double.Growth in city land will be relatively lower in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia(10 per cent),Latin America and the Caribbean(14 per cent)and Europe(16 per cent).Small cities and towns remain critical to achieving
162、 sustainable urban futures in low-income countries:Small cities(less than 250,000 inhabitants)cover almost half of city land(about 45 per cent)in low-income countries,a trend that will persist over the coming decades.Therefore,adequate territorial planning and enhanced capacities in these settlement
163、s can strengthen the pivotal role they play in realizing sustainable futures in these countries.Key MessagesManaging city density is the key future sustainability challenge for low-income countries:While density scenarios play out differently cities in various regions of the world,the fast-paced gro
164、wth in city population in low-income countries sets them apart.City densities in these countries need to be planned for and managed in ways that do not exert pressure on existing open land,infrastructure and services,resulting in crowding on one hand or leading to unsustainable sprawl on the other.I
165、n these countries,a high-density scenario,for instance,would see the already high population density in cities reach 14,000 by 2050 while a low-density scenario would mean cities need five times the amount of land to accommodate growth.In contrast,growth in city population in upper-middle-and high-i
166、ncome countries is lower and cities are less dense.As a result,they can accommodate future growth of population without any need to increase the amount of land.In some cases,the amount of city land is projected to shrink,such as in Eastern Asia.Enhanced planning capacities are needed in low-income c
167、ountries,especially for smaller and new cities:Urban and territorial planning that is responsive,anticipates and effectively addresses the demand for city expansion is imperative for sustainable futures in low-income countries.City land in these countries is projected to increase nearly one and a ha
168、lf times over the next 50 years.Notably,a significant share of this expansion will come from smaller and new cities,which may struggle to plan for this growth.Enhanced capacities in these settlements will strengthen the important role they play across the urban-rural continuum in achieving sustainab
169、le futures.Various levels of government need to plan for greying cities and towns:Demographic changes mean that in the future cities will have a larger share of elderly and a smaller share of children.It is therefore vital to plan for age-friendly cities and towns that afford good quality of life fo
170、r all its inhabitants across all generations.Already,the ageing of population is a reality in urban areas of high-and upper-middle-income countries.Urbanization is inevitable,planning for urban growth is critical for sustainable futures:Effective urban and territorial planning is critical to mitigat
171、e the negative social,economic and environmental associated with future urban growth.The growth of city land in low-income countries,for instance,will require substantial efforts in terms of both planning and infrastructure investments.Planning should be undertaken ahead of this expansion of cities
172、to halt informality and ensure that there is policy coherence at various scales guiding the needed investments.Envisaging the Future of CitiesxixChapter 3 Poverty and Inequality:Enduring Features of an Urban Future?Cities generate wealth but also concentrate poverty and inequality.From the overcrowd
173、ed slums in the developing world to homelessness and pockets of destitution in the developed world,urban poverty and inequality take many forms.We cannot envision a bright future for cities when inequality appears to be on the rise globally and poverty in certain regions.How to tackle poverty and in
174、equality are among the most pressing challenges facing urban areas;and improving income and a wide range of opportunities for all is essential to achieving an optimistic urban future.The global development agenda gives prime of place to the issue,with SDG 1,which calls for a world in which we“end po
175、verty in all its forms everywhere.”If urban poverty is not addressed,then this goal will remain elusive.Key Findings Urban poverty and inequality remain one of the most intractable challenges confronting cities:Urban poverty and inequality are highly complex and multidimensional challenges whose man
176、ifestation go beyond lack of income.Urban poverty and inequality are intertwined;they reinforce each other to create conditions of disadvantage that constrain the poor from enjoying the benefits of sustainable urbanization.The multidimensionality of urban poverty and inequality should be at the cent
177、re of interventions to create inclusive and equitable urban futures globally.Without concerted action at all levels,poverty and inequality could become the face of the future of cities:Poverty and inequality are increasingly becoming pervasive in our cities.In developing countries,slums and informal
178、 settlements are the most enduring spatial manifestation of poverty and inequality.For the millions living in slums,access to essential services remains elusive;thus,preventing the realization of a better urban future.In cities of developed countries,pockets of poverty and destitution have become en
179、trenched,where minority groups endure marginalization and stigmatization coupled with underinvestment in urban infrastructure.If decisive actions are not taken,urban poverty and inequality will become endemic.Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are off-track from ending poverty by 2030:Most countri
180、es in Sub-Saharan Africa are off-track in achieving the goal of ending poverty by 2030.The region has the highest incidence of urban poverty globally with about 23 per cent of the urban population living below the international poverty line and 29 per cent experiencing multidimensional poverty.The r
181、ate of multidimensional urban poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa is 11 times higher than in Latin America and the Caribbean.Indeed,poverty is on the rise in close to one-third of the countries in Sub-Saharan African.Unless governments at all levels act decisively,poverty could become an entrenched featur
182、e of the future of cities in the region.The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the emergence of newly poor people:The COVID-19 pandemic has reversed years of remarkable progress made in the fight against poverty.The pandemic has resulted in the emergence of newly poor peoplethat is,those who would ha
183、ve exited poverty in the absence of the pandemic but remain poor;and those who have fallen into poverty on account of the pandemic.In 2020,the pandemic-induced new poor globally was between 119 and 124 million people;this is projected to have risen to between 143 and 163 million in 2021.A majority o
184、f the new poor will be living in urban areas;thereby,presenting additional burden to already overstretched local governments especially in developing countries.Key Messages Tackling urban poverty and inequality are urgent global priorities:The current COVID-19 pandemic is a reminder that the vision
185、of equitable urban futures will not be achieved unless cities and subnational governments take bold actions to address the pervasive presence of urban poverty and inequality.Without urgent and transformative policy action at all levels,the current situation will only worsen.The long-term costs of ea
186、ch incremental policy choice may not be clear,but each decision could shape the future of cities for generations.Wrong decisions by city leaders could entrench poverty,deny opportunity for millions and widen urban disparities in ways that will become increasingly difficult to reverse.A multidimensio
187、nal approach is key to an inclusive urban future:Within the Decade of Action window(2020-2030),cities and subnational governments should adopt a multidimensional approach to addressing poverty and inequality by investing in infrastructure and essential services,while addressing the multiple spatial,
188、social and economic barriers that foster exclusion.Narrow,sectoral approaches have proved ineffective amid the social,economic,political,WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xxand environmental crises that trap most residents in poverty.As part of building sustainable urban futures,the following dimensions are c
189、ritical:spatial dimensionaccess to land,housing,and infrastructure;social dimensionrights and participation;and economic dimensionopportunities for all.Collectively,these factors can lift millions of people out of poverty and create more equitable and inclusive urban futures.Governments must extend
190、infrastructure and urban services to underserved communities:Investing in and extending infrastructure and services to deprived urban neighbourhoods is a critical policy lever to address poverty and inequality.Access to water and sanitation can be a matter of life and death for poor urban dwellers.T
191、argeting improvements in quality,coverage and affordability to zones of disadvantage and poverty should be a matter of policy priority.If these transformative measures are implemented,they can change the current negative trends and galvanize actions towards achieving equitable,inclusive and resilien
192、t urban futures.Supporting informal employment is critical for building inclusive urban futures:Informality is a reality of urbanization especially in developing countries.Looking into the future,cities should halt the exclusion of informal sector workers in all spheres of urban endeavour.Cities and
193、 subnational governments should acknowledge the legitimate contributions of informal workers and stop their harassment and penalization.The rights of informal workers should be guaranteed.These rights include legal recognition,economic and social rights,access to essential services and better repres
194、entation in policymaking.Cities will not be able to offer a bright urban future if their informal sector workers are perpetually excluded from urban development processes.Gender transformative approaches are crucial for building inclusive urban futures:Going forward,cities and subnational government
195、s should prioritize inclusive and gender-transformative responses that are co-produced with vulnerable urban populations.Cities should focus on developing inclusive urban governance processes that promote transformative resilience to multiple risks by using local knowledge in the face of uncertainty
196、.Urban leaders should draw on grassroots,civil society and private-sector efforts and build local alliances to deliver more effective strategies and co-design solutions to urban poverty and inequality.Chapter 4Resilient Urban Economies:A Catalyst for Productive FuturesThe urban economy is integral t
197、o the future of cities.Given the size of the contribution of cities to the national economy,the future of many countries will be determined by the productivity of its urban areas.People first gathered in denser human settlements for the purpose of trading at markets,and this fundamental aspect of ur
198、ban life has evolved over time.Todays urban economies are complex systems tied to global trade and capital flows,in which foreign entities can own the property next door and distant events can affect the prices for local goods.Cities must be smarter than ever about how they position their economies
199、for the maximum benefit of all residents while also safeguarding the environment and improving their citys quality of life.Key FindingsWhen planning their economic future,cities cannot overlook the informal sector:Recognizing and supporting the informal sector is vital for urban economic resilience
200、and productive urban futures,particularly in developing countries.Given the contribution of the informal sector,cities should adopt a transformative urban economic agenda that is inclusive and equitable.Approaches to urban planning,governance and international development should be reformed to make
201、them responsive to the needs of informal sector workers.This should be backed by the necessary support mechanisms such as access to finance(and relief during crises),markets and infrastructure to boost the resilience of informal economy actors to shocks and strengthen their contribution to productiv
202、e urban futures.Future economic growth and resilience cannot be sustained without bridging the infrastructure gaps across the urban-rural continuum:Cities and subnational governments should prioritize infrastructure investments towards building resilient urban economies and prosperous urban futures.
203、This includes targeting underserved neighbourhoods such as slums and informal settlements and marginalized neighbourhoods who bear the brunt of underinvestment in infrastructure.Investments should also be directed towards transport infrastructure systems to enhance the competitiveness of cities and
204、enable urban productivity.Envisaging the Future of CitiesxxiSustainable urban and territorial planning supported by effective governance structures is critical for building resilient urban economies and productive urban futures:In developing countries,more focus should be on institutional capacity b
205、uilding to enable sustainable planning and management of urban development.Cities that are well planned and managed perform better in optimizing and reaping the benefits of economies of agglomeration.If cities continue to grow in a disconnected and fragmented manner,the opportunities of leveraging e
206、conomies of scale and urban agglomeration will be missed.Sustainable and innovative municipal finance is fundamental:Cities must diversify their revenue sources by mobilizing sustainable,innovative and resilient revenue sources.The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that overreliance on traditional revenue
207、 sources like property taxes could have potentially crippling effects on the fiscal health of cities.Revenue mobilization should be back by institutional reforms to grant cities adequate fiscal autonomy to experiment with new financing instruments such as land value capture and municipal bonds,as we
208、ll as to provide them leverage to reform their tax systems in line with their economic bases.These innovative financing instruments(especially when aligned with sustainability ambitions)can serve as important levers to catalyse economically impactful capital investments that create long-term value f
209、or citizens,businesses and the city as a whole;thus,contributing to resilient and productive urban futures.Key MessagesEconomic diversification is a critical pillar for urban economic resilience and productive urban futures:The New Urban Agenda encourages governments to prioritize economic diversifi
210、cation by progressively supporting the transition to higher productivity through high-value-added sectors,technological innovations and creating quality,decent and productive jobs.In order to withstand future shocks and stresses,cities should utilize existing and potential resources to diversify the
211、ir economies.Diversification of urban economies should be supported by targeted investment and strategies to shift production structures towards new sources of growth.Failure to diversify urban economies will make cities extremely vulnerable to future shocks,especially in developing regions and in c
212、ities that heavily depend on single industries such as tourism,manufacturing or natural resource extraction.Cities should embrace the circular economy as a new frontier in the pursuit of sustainability and resilience:The New Urban Agenda promotes the adoption of policies that lead to a circular urba
213、n economy in order to move consumption and production away from unsustainable patterns.Gazing into the future,cities must facilitate and promote greener recovery for resilient economies.Adopting the circular economy can potentially generate additional decent and productive jobs,which are catalysts f
214、or urban productivity.Measures to achieve balanced and integrated urban and territorial economic development must be put in place today to avert skewed development tomorrow.In line with the call of the New Urban Agenda for balanced urban and territorial development,cities and subnational governments
215、 should put in place measures to ensure that economic growth is equitable across territories.Full implementation of national urban policies should be a priority.Other measures could include targeted infrastructure investments in secondary and intermediate cities that have been left behind.This focus
216、 will enhance the competitiveness of secondary cities,set their economies towards sustainable growth and build resilience to future shocks.The accelerated pace of transformation in the world of work calls for continual talent and skills development to achieve urban economic resilience and productive
217、 futures:Cities should focus on investing in human capacity development to build skills and competences that are in sync with rapid transformations taking place and the emerging new urban economy.Developing skills and talent for human capital is vital for inclusive and sustainable urban growth as it
218、 aligns with SDG 8 on promoting productive employment and decent work for all.The new urban economy requires re-skilling of workers to adapt to technological changes.A well-trained workforce is a prerequisite for resilient urban economies and productive urban futures.WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xxiiChap
219、ter 5Securing a Greener Urban FutureClimate change and environmental concerns increasingly dominate future scenarios.The increase in extreme weather events and natural disasters like flooding,heatwaves and landslides will impact urban areas the hardest,which makes climate change adaptation a paramou
220、nt concern.Meanwhile,urban areas are responsible for the majority of the worlds carbon emissions.As such,the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions must occur as soon as feasibly possible.Cities can do their part by embracing a wide range of options.Key FindingsThe transition to net zero GH
221、G emissions has been marked by a lack of ambition and policy pitfalls:There has been a growth of interest in net zero policies to facilitate sustainability transitions at the local level.However,current net zero policies have pitfalls,including an overreliance on underdeveloped technologies that ove
222、rlook local resources and the lack of integration of local governance strategies in national programmes for action.Meanwhile,the lack of ambition in the current national commitments to net zero also echoes a lack of imagination in defining alternative urban futures.The twin crises of climate change
223、and the loss of global biodiversity threaten the futures of cities:Climate impacts and other environmental crises interact with drivers of urban inequality,affecting peoples capacity to anticipate the impact,then respond and recover from them.Dealing with future risksincluding environmental risks ha
224、s become one of the main concerns for local governments and other urban-based actors,eliciting diverse responses.Inclusive spaces to deliver green urban futures are necessary for sustainability transitions:There are many cases where significant infrastructure and transport projects are accomplished
225、at the expense of various social groups in urban areas,in some cases entrenching existing inequalities and vulnerabilities.Transition and resilience agendas foreground the need to align social and environmental justice goals with the policy priorities of the SDGs and the New Urban Agenda.The interac
226、tion between global and local partnerships is further making broader inclusion possible.Additionally,there are also growing opportunities for collective action to deliver low carbon and resilient urban futures at the local level.The world is losing the opportunity to use the post-pandemic context as
227、 a catalytic moment to facilitate investment for a transition to net zero carbon emissions:While the COVID-19 pandemic represented a significant setback in achieving poverty reductions and the SDGs,it presented a potential inflection point for change toward sustainability.However,the window of oppor
228、tunity opened by the crisis to rethink human-environmental relations and mobilize recovery funds for environmental sustainability is closing rapidly,with carbon emissions again soaring and the extinction crisis unabated.Greener futures cannot be secured without just transitions:Alongside new technic
229、al possibilities to facilitate resource efficiency in sectors such as energy and transport,urban policies must recognize how the informal sector serves the needs of many urban residents.A well-documented example is informal motorized and non-motorized transport that serve many disadvantaged communit
230、ies in urban areas.A just transition will need to incorporate the concerns of this sector,alongside technological improvements.Urban planning must be inclusive to effectively cater for the informal services sectors that work for the urban poor.Key MessagesPolicymakers at all levels must recognize an
231、d support the role of urban areas in the net zero transition:Besides actions at the national level,achieving net zero is also dependent on subnational and city-level action.There is,therefore,a need to develop policies to support action at the subnational level,limiting carbon emissions or reducing
232、vulnerabilities.In addition,current instruments at the national level need to be aligned with local priorities.At the very least,there should be coordination between various levels of governance to ensure that national-level policy is designed in ways that does not curtail or limit local experimenta
233、tion by multiple actors.Nature-based solutions must be part of inclusive planning processes for sustainable urban futures:Nature-inspired approaches to urban planning,urban governance and urban design are revolutionizing current thinking about cities and urban services.To achieve sustainable urban f
234、utures,local action cannot overlook this trend.Nature-based solutions offer the opportunity to develop a wide range of responses to urban environmental Envisaging the Future of Citiesxxiiichallenges that harness nature for urban sustainability.Many of these responses can be integrated into urban pla
235、nning and are often low-cost.Future-oriented thinking,such as scenario analysis,requires plural politics that ensure diverse voices are heard to minimize uncertainties in the pathways to securing greener urban futures:Building net zero scenarios can be challenging as it involves long time frames and
236、 detailed speculation on technological and social changes,with inferences across different sectors and processes.Ensuring that diverse voices are heard in such scenario-building approaches will minimize the perception of such scenarios as technocratic and limiting stakeholders agency as well as elim
237、inate simplified assumptions about social and political dynamics.Various levels of government and institutions can harness the potential of international partnerships such as transnational networks and social movements in delivering greener urban futures:Social movements,for instance,are the new poi
238、nt of hope for climate and biodiversity action as new generations(supported by old ones)clarify that business as usual is not an option.Social movements can foster innovation and transitions towards net zero.There is increasing evidence of innovation and feasible responses coming from informal settl
239、ements and various community groups.The COVID-19 pandemic,in particular,has shown how local responses can support solidarity and resilience,primarily when invested in partnerships with local and regional governments.Support diverse forms of knowledge in environmental decision-making to achieve susta
240、inable urban futures:Today,hierarchies of knowledge persist,in which some forms of knowing are consistently valued above others.Local governments and local institutions can support diverse forms of knowledgeincluding indigenous knowledge,local knowledge and traditional knowledgethat respond to globa
241、l demands and acknowledge specificity.This also requires redefining vulnerable groups from passive victims as active urban change agents(following the slogan“nothing for us,without us”).Chapter 6Urban Planning for the Future of CitiesCities are complex systems that grow,develop and even shrink based
242、 on a variety of forces.Planning is an essential tool for shaping the future of cities,as unplanned human settlements are prone to sprawl,inefficient land use,poor connectivity and a lack of adequate municipal services.Good urban planning is one of the three pillars of sustainable cities,without whi
243、ch cities are unlikely to achieve the optimistic scenario of urban futures.Key FindingsRecovery to pre-COVID normal is likely to delay climate action in cities:While in many cities,emissions plunged to unprecedentedly low levels during the lockdowns,rapid recovery to pre-COVID levels was observed af
244、ter easing mobility restrictions with an observed increase in car dependency.There are concerns that economic recovery actions could derail many activities aimed at urban climate change adaptation and mitigation.Interventions in the energy and transport sectors are key to the success or failure of c
245、limate action in cities.Current planning approaches continue to enable vulnerable groups to be disproportionately affected by pandemics:Vulnerable groups such as ethnic minorities and the urban poor have been disproportionately affected by the worst impacts of the pandemic,making it difficult to con
246、tain the spread of infectious diseases in cities.Modern urban planning has achieved limited success in equitably distributing resources.Profound inequalities have existed in cities for several decades,persist in the present and will possibly continue into the future without urgent changes in the way
247、 cities are planned.Urban indoor and outdoor spaces are not versatile and flexible enough:The pandemic revealed issues related to the lack of versatility and flexibility in the design of indoor and outdoor spaces.It increased the demand for multi-purpose and flexible spaces that can adapt to new sit
248、uations,which is a significant shift from traditional urban planning practices like single-use zoning that often overlook flexibility and adaptability.Moving forward,there is a need for changes in the design of urban building layouts,working spaces,shopping malls,and open/public spaces to make them
249、more flexible and adaptive to future shocks.WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xxivCompact cities are pandemic resilient:Concerns over density being a risk factor to the rise of pandemics has resulted in outmigration in some cities and could lead to new waves of suburbanization and urban sprawl with major soci
250、oeconomic and environmental implications.No compelling evidence has been reported on the role of density in virus transmission and mortality rates.However,there is consensus that density alone is not a major risk factor,and other factors such as income,infrastructure access and residential overcrowd
251、ing could be more influential.A lack of access to health care and other services will increase vulnerability to pandemics and other future adverse events.Urban-rural interlinkages are overlooked in urban planning and decision-making practices:Urban planning approaches continue to place limited empha
252、sis on urban-rural linkages despite cities being dependent on their hinterlands for natural resources,commodities and multiple types of ecosystem services.Urban areas experience dynamic and non-linear flows both in and out of cities whether goods,trade,human movement or species migration.Such high c
253、onnectivity levels have implications for resilience as shocks and disruptions in one part of the system could rapidly spread to the other parts.Key MessagesUrban planning should urgently pursue climate action as a basis for greener urban futures:Measures taken to recover from the pandemic should hel
254、p cities mitigate and better respond to climate change,which is a major threat looming over cities.There is need for a continued paradigm shift toward environmentally friendly and human-centric energy and mobility options.This can be achieved through efficient public transport and active mobility wh
255、en integrated with energy-efficient modes such as electric vehicles powered by clean energy.Post-COVID recovery should ensure a transition to more equitable and inclusive urban futures for all:Recovery programmes should prioritize addressing the needs of vulnerable and marginalized groups,including
256、ethnic minorities,urban poor,immigrants,refugees,and those who are precariously employed or housed.To seize the pandemic as an opportunity to reform our cities and build back batter,it is essential to carefully assess the impacts on marginalized groups and ensure they are adequately engaged in plann
257、ing processes.City authorities should invest in the multiple co-benefits of green infrastructure development:Integrating green infrastructure into the design of streets,street networks and open spaces is an effective way to enhance their flexibility and multi-functionality.Indeed,creating networks o
258、f green areas and green spaces will allow better responses to future pandemics while also providing co-benefits for climate change mitigation,adaptation and health by restoring and regenerating natural ecosystems.Embrace the“15-minute city”concept as a model for creating walkable,mixed-use and compa
259、ct neighbourhoods:As a new planning approach,the“15-minute city”can guide the development of neighbourhoods where residents can meet most of their daily needs within a 15-minute travel time on foot,cycle,micro-mobility or public transport.Through the integration of green infrastructure,this model ca
260、n also provide multiple co-benefits for health,equity,and climate change adaptation and mitigation.It is,however,necessary to make sure that 15-minute neighbourhoods do not exacerbate spatial inequalities in cities by becoming enclaves for wealthy urbanites that fail to integrate into the overall ur
261、ban structure.Urban actors must break down silos in pursuit of integrated urban and territorial planning:Planning should move away from silo-based approaches toward integrated plans and policies that consider interactions between multiple factors in a city region such as the hinterlands and surround
262、ing ecosystems.Such socio-ecological approaches are more sustainable and resilient against present and future adverse events.Envisaging the Future of CitiesxxvChapter 7Public Health and Sustainable Urban FuturesAs history attests,the productivity and resilience of cities is undergirded by effective
263、public health.Beyond hospitals,medicines and vaccines,equitable provision of health-promoting infrastructure such as green spaces,improved housing,clean and safe drinking water,and extensive sewer systems to safely dispose of human waste are necessary minimum components for securing public health in
264、 urban areas.While COVID-19 led to the first major global pandemic in a century,the future portends more epidemics and pandemics.Public health is now once again at the forefront in envisioning the future of cities.Key Findings Urban health risks are multi-layered and change rapidly:Since 2020,cities
265、 have had to grapple with more than just COVID-19 as Ebola,bird flu,H1N1 flu,MERS,SARS and Zika outbreaks occurred at different times and in different cities.The HIV-AIDS epidemic continues to be of concern with elevated rates of infection amongst marginalized groups such as racial/ethnic minorities
266、,migrants and intravenous drug users.Moreover,climate-related risks are now increasingly contributing to urban deaths and ill health.Annually,an estimated 7 million people die prematurely due to air pollution.Urban food system transformations towards ultra-processed foods with high levels of fat and
267、 sugar have led to the progressive increase of diet-related health risks and the rising toll of non-communicable diseases in both low-income and higher-income cities.In many urban areas,the same health risks are experienced and acted upon in different ways:These differences are attributed to racial
268、divides,gendered discrimination,xenophobia and other sources of disadvantage.If left unchecked,these health inequities could lead to the pessimistic or even high damage urban future scenario.An improved understanding of how multiple factors contribute to urban health disparities at several levels an
269、d sites(including homes,workplaces and neighbourhoods)is key to effective interventions that can avoid entrenching urban health inequities.Climate change is the foremost urban health threat and risks leading to the high damage urban future scenario:Climate change manifests in more frequent,intense a
270、nd longer-lasting extreme weather events,particularly floods and heatwaves.These and other disasters translate to complex overlapping urban health burdens,starting with immediate injuries,mortality,displacement and lost livelihoods amongst affected residents.Broader impacts include rising levels of
271、urban water insecurity,increased rates of waterborne illness and escalating food prices and food insecurity.Unabated,these conditions create a fertile ground for the high damage urban future scenario where health vulnerabilities are amplified,and poverty and inequality persist over the long term.The
272、 increase in mental related illnesses is a growing urban health concern:Mental disorders are in the top 10 leading causes of disease burdens globally,and the number of disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)lost due to mental illness has increased by over 55 per cent over the last two decades.Rising l
273、evels of depression,anxiety and other mental health impacts have been linked to COVID-19,particularly for essential workers,those with heightened caring duties(especially women),racial/ethnic minorities and other vulnerable groups.The shift in armed conflicts to urban battlegrounds is another growin
274、g concern that could lead to the high damage scenario for urban futures:The use of heavy weaponry in towns and cities inevitably leads to heavier civilian casualties and destruction of interconnected basic infrastructure such as water,sanitation,gas and electricity lines leaving fragile communities
275、highly susceptible to infectious diseases.Further,armed conflicts disrupt health systems including physical destruction of hospitals,flight of healthcare workers and interruption of child vaccination and communicable disease surveillance programmes.These health systems require intense time and resou
276、rce investments to rebuild.Consequently,the occurrence of armed conflict can lead to prolonged instabilities and intractable poverty as resources are diverted away from development long after the weapons are silenced.Key MessagesIf cities take the Health in All Policies Approach,they can make progre
277、ss on multiple SDGs:By mainstreaming the Health in All Policies(HiAP)approach,cities can realize multiple benefits and unlock synergies between health and sustainable development pathways.Adding a health perspective in urban decision-making can simultaneously improve health(SDG 3),tackle poverty(SDG
278、 1),foster gender equality(SDG 5)and enhance access to clean energy and climate-resilient infrastructure(SDGs 7 and 9).WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xxviLocal governments are best placed to design and implement multisectoral approaches to effectively realize healthy urban futures:A multisectoral approach
279、is necessary because health is an essential component of sustainable urbanization given its impact on and interrelation with social,economic and environmental targets.Responsive,accountable local governments play a pivotal role in translating global and national targets to effective place-based inte
280、rventions that generate multiple co-benefits for health,inclusion and climate change mitigation.Local governments,however,need stable funding,long-term political support and effective mechanisms for public engagement.Ongoing disaggregated data collection is essential for effective responses to futur
281、e urban health risks:Since urban health risks are multilayered and change rapidly,policymakers require ongoing data collection with attention to emerging and differentiated health challenges in urban areas.Using disaggregated data to inform inclusive interventions,policymakers can develop holistic m
282、ultisectoral initiatives that address complex urban health inequities and support locally rooted solutions.City authorities can leverage digital technology such as telemedicine and drones,as well as community-led citizen science,to collect data from marginalized and hard-to-reach groups to ensure th
283、ey leave no one behind.Governments should provide universal health coverage to strengthen future health system preparedness:With the anticipation of future epidemics and pandemics,inequitable access to quality healthcare compromises the collective health and well-being for all.COVID-19 has unequivoc
284、ally demonstrated that in an interconnected world,infectious diseases mock geographic,socioeconomic and other privilege boundaries.As part of the new social contract,governments should provide universal health coverage that secures equitable access as well as sufficient quality and affordability of
285、healthcare for effective response to urban health crises in the future.Addressing mental illness is an urgent priority not only for supporting health and dignity but also for continued economic and social development:Improving access to mental health programmes and developing holistic strategies to
286、address mental illness remain a key concern globally,especially in the wake of COVID-19.Key priorities for equitable,inclusive mental health initiatives include additional investments that link mental health with universal health coverage and primary healthcare interventions.The new approach to ment
287、al health must move beyond biomedical techniques and instead seek to address the social determinants of health such as improving access to urban green spaces and enhancing social cohesion,as well as countering stigma facing those with mental illness.Envisaging the Future of CitiesxxviiChapter 8Rethi
288、nking Urban Governance for the Future of CitiesWhichever future urban challenge cities face,whether it is poverty,health,housing or the environment,urban governance always has a critical enabling role to ensure that the capacities and resources of institutions and people match their responsibilities
289、 and desires.Sustainable urban development is not possible without effective multilevel urban governance including local governments,civil society and national governments.Governments have been severely tested since 2020,which means now is the time to rethink urban governance and put cities on the p
290、ath to an optimistic future scenario.Key Findings A spatial justice approach is essential to respond to shocks:A spatial justice approach that includes vulnerable residents in decision-making has proven to be essential in responding to future global shocks.Cities with a more equitable and accessible
291、 distribution of basic services were better able to protect vulnerable and high-risk communities from the COVID-19 pandemic.Cities with more autonomy in local government are better positioned to respond to health care crisis with contextualized knowledge and experiment with different approaches and
292、service delivery.COVID-19 accelerated the digitalization of urban governance:Physical distancing and lockdowns required governments to rapidly scale up their use of digital technology to conduct basic functions.This trend provides opportunities for the future of urban governance as governments can u
293、se new technologies to make data collection more reliable,provide more open data,communicate better with residents and improve service delivery.But cities also have a responsibility to govern how new technologies are used and work to eliminate the digital divide while protecting the safety and priva
294、cy of residents.City diplomacy and international city networks are increasing in number and political potency:Cities and subnational governments are reasserting themselves on the international stage and supplementing national governments where national frameworks are lacking.City diplomacy and inter
295、national city networks provide an emerging opportunity for cities of all sizes and geographies to address transnational issues,as well as exchange experience and learn from each other to adapt governance approaches to evolving future challenges.A lack of human and financial capacity continues to str
296、ain sustainable urbanization:Cities,especially in developing countries,continue to lack adequate capacity to address current and future challenges.A lack of resources and trained professionals limits the capacity needed to implement transformative changes,while also creating conditions for corruptio
297、n.The future of multilevel governance relies on effective decentralization of decision-making,enhancing local fiscal autonomy and stronger links between national urban policies and cities.Civil society and participatory process are under threat:While many cities are engaging in innovative participat
298、ory processes,globally,the space for civil society is shrinking.State-initiated participation can be tokenistic and is often disregarded in crisis situations.Evidence of,or even the perception of corruption,or mishandling of finances undermines trust between the government and civil society.If this
299、trend continues,the future of cities will be more authoritarian.Key MessagesFuture urban governance should institutionalize the mindset of planning for shocks and disruptions:For urban governance to be prepared for an age of global threats and disruptions it will require collaborative and concerted
300、action to prepare processes and systems that can withstand and recover from shocks in an effective and inclusive way.There is a need to institutionalize planning frameworks that incorporate disruptions as a central element and learn from previous shocks and challenges.Effective multilevel governance
301、 for disruptions needs to balance clear legal frameworks with a flexible approach to new partnerships,cooperation,solidarity and collective action within and between state and non-state actors.The need to build trust and legitimacy of institutions is crucial for the future of urban governance:With t
302、he anticipated rise in global shocks including climate,security and public health crises,the need for trust and legitimacy of institutions is crucial.With ever larger cities,the distance between governments and their citizens has increased.Effective communication,meaningful participation opportuniti
303、es and accountability structures built into integrated governance relationships are all necessary WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xxviiiresponses for addressing the trust equation.In light of the digitalization of urban governance,maintaining privacy and security of data should be a priority for maintaining
304、 trust.The future of effective local government relies on well-coordinated metropolitan governance:Future urban areas are projected to grow far beyond the boundaries of any particular jurisdiction,which necessitates new and adaptable urban governance and management frameworks.Metropolitan governance
305、 with institutionalized frameworks has demonstrated an ability to optimize coordination,engage secondary and rural communities,and create collaborative approaches in mitigation,adaptation and recovery efforts.The future of metropolitan governance,however,is plural:there is no single metropolitan mod
306、el of governance that works everywhere.Metropolitan governance needs to have adequate political and institutional legitimacy,clearly defined roles and need capacity and resources that meet their responsibilities.National governments should enable better local government finances to respond to the ch
307、allenges of urbanization:Effective models for collaborative governance,financing and integrated development should be responsive to ever-changing future conditions and needs.Financial managers should resist parachuting normative best practices into inappropriate contexts.Sustainable urban developmen
308、t requires comprehensive and context specific financial management that includes diverse sources of funding.Clearer national regulation and more decentralized governance plays an important enabling role to a financially solvent urban future,making transfers to local governments more regular and allo
309、wing cities to borrow and issues bonds.The future of equitable service delivery relies on governance through modes of co-production with relevant stakeholders:Achieving equitable outcomes with respect for human rights and the well-being of residents will require urban policymakers to re-envision the
310、ir relationship with the public.Governments need to fully acknowledge and invest in slum dwellers and their organizations as true development partners.Special attention must be paid to underrepresented groups and co-create strategies such as re-municipalization,community-led finance and forms of co-
311、production of urban services.Civil society has different rolesas service providers,agents for civic engagement and enforcers of social accountability,and as financiers through philanthropyand the future of urban governance needs to ensure regulation better reflects the different roles they play in s
312、ociety.Chapter 9Innovation and Technology:Towards Knowledge-Based Urban FuturesAdvances in technology and urban futures are inextricably linked.The future of cities will be knowledge-based,driven largely by innovation and the widespread use of new technologies and digitization of virtually all facet
313、s of urban life.Technological innovations define the twenty-first century.Cities are going through a wave of digitalization that is reshaping how urban dwellers live,work,learn and play.Technology holds great promise for improving urban livelihoods,but there are also risks that smart city technology
314、 will invade privacy.Cities,meanwhile,are competing for innovation-based businesses in a race that will create both winners and losers in urban futures.Key FindingsInnovation and technology play an increasingly central role in planning for urban futures:This arises from rapid advances in technologic
315、al developments,the pace of urbanization,and the scale of urban challenges requiring systemic responses.Urban innovation extends beyond technology:it also encompasses social and organizational innovation,which recognizes the important contribution of civic organizations and community groups to urban
316、 development,and the benefits of more open and collaborative local government.Digitalization and automation are transforming urban economies:Smaller cities and suburban areas may benefit from the shift towards hybrid working(accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic).Larger cities may be less exposed to
317、the impacts of automation,given the concentration of highly skilled professionals.Significant changes in the mix of job occupancies can be expected in the formal economy in both developed and developing countries.Some cities offer re-skilling programmes to prepare residents for the future of work.In
318、 informal economies,digitalization may provide significant opportunities.The urgency to decarbonize urban economies is driving the convergence of green and smart technologies:A key feature of smart environmental technologies is their suitability for flexible,modular designs and local adaptations.The
319、 benefits include sustainable energy production,improved resilience and financial incentives(e.g.feed-in tariff)for Envisaging the Future of Citiesxxixresidents.The trend towards more localized applications highlights the importance of on-the-ground partnerships and community buy-in.There is a rapid
320、 growth in the demand for smart city technology:The demand for smart city systems and solutions is estimated to increase annually by 25 per cent,with an overall market value of approximately US$517 billion.This is driven by governments investing in technology to meet the demands of an urbanizing wor
321、ld.This also based on rapid advancements in digital and connected technologies and their ubiquity in everyday life.The speed with which cities are adopting smart technology is illustrated by strong demand for Internet of Things technology,with over 20 per cent annual growth forecast for the coming y
322、ears.Similarly,blockchain technology is predicted to grow by over 30 per cent in the next few years.Artificial Intelligence technologies are increasingly deployed by municipal governments in the form of virtual agents like chatbots.Technological advances risk exacerbating existing,and generating new
323、,socioeconomic inequalities:The digital divide tends to adversely affect women,the elderly,ethnic minorities and immigrants most acutely.Cities can mitigate this with measures include providing affordable Internet access,skills training and community support.An environmental divide occurs when urban
324、 sustainability initiatives disproportionally benefit middle-class residents.Cities are faced with a series of complex ethical,legal,and technical issues through the introduction of frontier technologies,such as drones and autonomous vehicles.This requires careful assessment.Several initiatives have
325、 been put in place to mitigate the risks of digitalization and other technological innovations.Key MessagesInnovation practices need to be tailored to local contexts:Smaller cities,and cities in emerging and developing countries,may need alternative approaches to innovation than those pursued by wor
326、ld cities and major metropolitan regions.Cities can use their convening power to nurture a culture of innovation with a focus on addressing major urban challenges.Innovation should be approached more broadly than traditional research and development by involving a wider range of stakeholders,includi
327、ng civil society organizations and community groups.City governments can lead by example,by innovating in more open,collaborative,and inclusive planning and decision-making.City governments should embrace low-carbon technology but mitigate negative environmental effects:The combination of green and
328、smart technologies creates new opportunities for small-scale and small-grid,modular,and flexible systems and applications.Together with their relative affordability,this can benefit communities,towns and cities with limited financial and infrastructural resources.But cities need to consider the nega
329、tive environmental externalities when investing in low carbon and digital and connected technologies.This includes environmental problems associated with the mining of rare earths(e.g.lithium for batteries),toxic electronic waste and high energy consumption of some technologies(e.g.blockchain).Local
330、 governments need to prepare their economies for the effects of advancing automation and digitalization:This includes taking an active approach to digital(labour)platforms,if necessary,with appropriate regulation to address the problem of precarious work.There is an important agenda for skills devel
331、opment and training,to counter the risk of growing social inequalities and exclusion arising from technological advances.This should particularly focus on those on the wrong side of digital and environmental divides.Mobilizing community members as trainers can be useful,for example in informal settl
332、ements.Cities can use digital tools innovatively to improve the provision of public services and local decision-making:To avoid top-down,one-way communication,digital tools need to be inclusive,collaborative and empowering.Their use needs to align with wider offline decision-making structures and pr
333、ocesses.While full technological sovereignty may be out of reach,city governments have an opportunity and responsibility to co-determine how innovation and technology are designed for,and applied in,cities.They should initiate,and participate in,technology assessments,and involve other urban stakeholders in the process.WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022xxxChapter 10Building Resilience for Sustainable Urban