《埃森哲:2023年银行业十大趋势报告(英文版)(30页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《埃森哲:2023年银行业十大趋势报告(英文版)(30页).pdf(30页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Top 10 Trends for 2023The gravity of rising ratesAccenture BankingBanking Top 10 Trends for 20232The five key forces of changeThese five key forces of change are manifest in the ten trends which we believe will have a profound influence on banking in 2023 and are likely to continue to shape and driv
2、e the industry for many years to come.ForewordTotal Enterprise ReinventionThe Metaverse ContinuumThe Ongoing Technology RevolutionTalentSustainabilityCompanies are making the strategic decision to continuously reinvent themselves by digitally transforming every part of their business with technology
3、,data,automation and AI.They are breaking down internal silos and connecting functions and data across the value chaincreating new ways of operating and serving customers and their people,and discovering new business models and growth opportunities.With this strategy,banks can set a new performance
4、frontier for themselvesand for the industry.Leading banks are creating stronger workforces with a three-pronged strategy:they access talent,inside and outside the organization;unlock the potential of existing talent with technology and by developing their skills;and create new talent by looking at p
5、eoples potential beyond their current skills.Sustainability spans environmental,social,and governance(ESG)issuesfrom transitioning to a zero-carbon economy to human rights,and beyond to inclusion and diversity.When companies and governments embed sustainability into their operations,they can create
6、real value and make a difference.This is a fast-evolving spectrum of digitally-enhanced worlds,realities and business modelsstretching from a digital layer on reality to completely virtual environments that offers every enterprise opportunities for change and growth.Banks should start to create a st
7、rategy now to realize the business potential of the metaverse continuum tomorrow.New technologies and expanding IT are disrupting all aspects of business,driving the next waves of innovation that are bringing new approaches and solutions to businesses in every industry.Banks should prepare themselve
8、s to harness these new forms of technology and computing for competitive advantage.Low rates bankings Big BangForces of change are reshaping banking.The last time the banking industry experienced steeply rising rates off a very low base was back in 2005before the launch of the iPhone,which seems lik
9、e an eon ago.Over the past 17 years low rates have had the effect of a Big Bang,shattering the fundamental equation of banking(deposits drive lending power),severing the connections between related offerings,and dramatically disrupting valuations and markets.3Introduction Banking Top 10 Trends for 2
10、023Lenin said there are decades when nothing happens,and there are weeks when decades happen.This year is likely to be one of those weeks.Banks are having to manage not only macro-economic and geopolitical change,but also profound,longer-lasting shifts that are driven by technological innovation.At
11、Accenture we believe these shifts are an opportunity for banks to reimagine and reposition themselves for the future.We call them the five key forces of change.They are reshaping industries,breaking down barriers to entry,and blurring industry lines.They also provide much of the energy behind the tr
12、ends that are affecting banking in 2023.Banking returns to its regular orbitFor many years,low and even negative rates meant money was effectively freeand worth very little to banks.A deposit balance of$25,000 is worth$720 a year in income when the rate is 3.75%;when its 0.25%it earns only$29 a year
13、.1 Until the financial crisis of 2008/9,interest rates were the gravitational force that kept bankings integrated deposit/lending model working dependably.Without this gravity,powerful distortions shook the industry.Banks were deprived of a major source of revenue,causing them to shift their focus f
14、rom the totality of customers financial needs to isolated products that continued to generate fees.This in turn strengthened the product silos within most banks.At the same time,the fintech universe exploded.A multitude of brilliant innovators with sky-high valuations burst onto the scene,awash with
15、 cheap capital and prioritizing scale over financial returns.Ignoring time-honored business models,they targeted only particular parts of the value chain.The result was an eruption of innovation and competition.The customer experience was impacted profoundly.Consumers wanting to take advantage of th
16、e new value that was being created had to expand their portfolio of financial service providers and construct their financial journey using a mix-and-match of the best products drawn from the various silos.Most of the trends shaping banking in 2023 are affected,if not actually caused,by the return o
17、f positive interest ratesthe gravity that keeps the industry in a predictable orbit.”Michael Abbott Senior Managing Director Global Banking LeadThe gravity of rising ratesBanking Top 10 Trends for 20234Some players took things to the extreme,creating money from nothing:minting crypto coins and NFTs.
18、The value was in the eye of the beholderuntil it wasnt.Most of the trends shaping banking in 2023 are affected,if not actually caused,by the return of positive interest rates.Gravity has been restored,and the constellation of banking products are drifting into a more familiar and predictable orbit.D
19、eposit accounts are once again fueling the industry and balance sheets suddenly matter again.The year ahead wont be without its surprises and disruption;it definitely wont be boring.The revival of interest rates may not herald a return to business as usual,but it will certainly be welcomed by most b
20、anks.Harnessing changeLeading banks recognize they need to accelerate changenot only to compete but to find new paths to growth.The five key forces of change which Accenture has identified as having the greatest impact on the transformation of organizations and business as a whole are gaining moment
21、um.For C-suites looking to forge ahead,these forces are showing the way.Banking Top 10 Trends for 202351Rising rates catalyze product innovationThe low,static interest rates that have dominated global macroeconomics for the past decade and a half may have been appreciated by businesses and homeowner
22、s,but the benefits for banks have been limited.Deposits generated little profit and depositors either received minimal interest or even had to pay to keep their money in the bank.Banking Top 10 Trends for 20236The absence of interest rate competition caused bankings drawbridge to come clattering dow
23、n,allowing a flood of digital-only banks to rush in.It also caused banks to shift most of their attention to those products that were still generating revenue.In the process,however,they became less customer-centric,more siloed and less innovative.All of these made it more difficult for banks to dri
24、ve total enterprise reinvention.For banks that have spent many years adapting to a zero-gravity environment in which many of the industrys natural laws seemed to have lost their influence,the return to earth will be welcomed.What,in practical terms,does it mean for banks in 2023?While most deposit-t
25、aking institutions will benefit from the increase in rates,all deposits are not created equal.The big prize in the current environment is sticky deposits with the lowest possible deposit beta*.Stickiness used to be easy to achieve,but in recent years many of the barriers to switching have been weake
26、ned by technology.Digital banking has eliminated the personal connection.Comparison sites like Bankrate in the US,MoneySuperMarket in the UK and BankBazaar in India make it easy for customers to move their money in pursuit of the best rates.Customer inertia is no longer enough to ensure retention.Fo
27、r these reasons,rising interest rates will be the rocket fuel that ignites banks product innovation.Banks will quickly scrap their product silos and redirect their focus to the totality of their customers financial needs.Innovation will come in the form of offerings similar to that of Amazon Prime:a
28、 personalized,integrated set of products and services that deliver a value proposition amplified by a multiplier effect.These innovative offerings are likely to erode silos and draw on both sides of the balance sheet.One example is Bank of America,which uses intelligence to wrap a tailored collectio
29、n of deposit and credit products around the customer and then offers an integrated loyalty program that recognizes the total value of each customer.Both parties benefit,with the bank reporting close to a 99%retention rate.2 Discovery Bank in South Africa helps customers manage their finances,tracks
30、their progress and rewards those who do well with a wide range of offers,from discounts on healthy food purchases to reductions on airfares and holiday accommodation.3 This is just the start.Like Amazon and other bigtechs,banks are likely to continually add features and new capabilities that scale a
31、s the customer relationship deepens:the more you use,the more you get.We expect the innovators to be more creativeperhaps,instead of a toaster for opening a new bank account,customers will get a discounted Netflix subscription.High rates will radically change competitive strategies in 2023.Expect th
32、e heat to be turned up on hot money deposits(the kind that are most likely to move in search of better returns).Certainly,the most dangerous place for a bank to be in 2023 will be at the top of Bankrates list of competing deposit-takers.Expect to see a surge of M&A in the months ahead,with the most
33、innovative banks that enjoy the most stable deposits snapping up their hot-deposit counterparts.The banks that are likely to succeed over the next year and beyond will be those that bring their siloed products back into an integrated offering,fueled by deposits,that powers greater benefits by addres
34、sing the totality of each customers needs.”*Deposit beta is the portion of a change in the prevailing interest rate which a bank passes on to its customers.It is a measure of the sensitivity of deposit pricing to monetary policy benchmark rates.7Banking Top 10 Trends for 20232The renaissance of the
35、branchPrior to the pandemic,few banks spent time wondering whether their branch network was a blessing or a curse it was simply an unavoidable part of doing business.Then the unthinkable happened and virtually all branches were shut.Today,most banks are asking:what is the future of the branch?Bankin
36、g Top 10 Trends for 20238In 2019,banks worldwide spent more than$650 billion maintaining their branch network.4 By our analysis,in the markets that account for roughly three-quarters of global GDP,this translated to about 84 basis points of the average deposit held in 2019 by banks in these markets.
37、Reducing the geographic footprint and encouraging customers to use only the banks digital channels had obvious cost benefits.However,it came at the expense of personal relationships and a deeper understanding of the customers needs and intent.In an environment where deposits have value to the bank a
38、nd where some customers still believe their money resides in their local branch,these relationships matter.Treating customers holistically,individually and intimately can make a huge differencewe believe the value,in terms of creating loyalty and easing the need to compete on price,is significantly
39、greater than the cost.The pandemic showed us that without face-to-face interaction,most banks struggle to maintain close,loyal relationships.Digitalization made customers more self-reliant,but at the same time it eroded banks differentiation,facilitated switching and generally made banking a lot les
40、s personalthe opposite of what is needed to succeed today.The year ahead will see a renewed focus on branches.Many banks will follow the lead of JPMorgan Chase,which 18 months ago reported it was more than halfway through its 2018 plan to open 400 branches in new markets across the US by the end of
41、2022.5 Banks will be inviting customers back and welcoming them home.More importantly,they will be shifting their emphasis from meeting specific needs and selling individual products to talking about improving customers general financial wellbeing.Banks will use their branches to learn more about th
42、eir customers,show interest and empathy,offer advice and build loyalty.This wont be a pivot away from digitalization;rather,a horses-for-courses approach that recognizes the strengths of each channel.Customers today do most of their banking on their mobile devices,with only 3%of interactions happeni
43、ng face-to-face.However,an in-person meeting remains the preferred option when opening new products 27%of consumers said it was their first choice,ahead of mobile apps(22%)and websites(21%).6 The opportunity is to move beyond a marketplace where the value of a customer is equal to the sum of the pro
44、ducts they use,to one where a multiplier effect is at work.This is where the branch comes into its own,but it will take a retrained and re-oriented workforce that is motivated,engaged and feels appreciated.It will also take a more tailored and purposeful customer journey than we saw before the pande
45、mic.This journey will,in many cases,include non-financial products that help customers deal with challenges in areas like housing,mobility,e-commerce and more.Branches allow banks to offer lower deposit betas without seeing their customer bases taken over by comparison sites.However,achieving the ri
46、ght balance will demand a fresh look at where the branch fits into the banks overall customer experience.”9Banking Top 10 Trends for 20233The metaverse demystifiesIn 2023 the metaverse will not completely transform the banking industry.What will happen,however,is the metaverse will continue to matur
47、e.More banks will shift it higher up on their agenda,from a social and technological curiosity to a serious opportunity that warrants careful examination.Banking Top 10 Trends for 202310The metaverse is not new,but it is still obscure and difficult for many to get their heads around.While it is one
48、of the five key forces driving change across all industries,banks have yet to come up with a definitive answer to the obvious question:how can we make money from it?Yet if the estimates are to be believedsome analysts have projected that the total addressable market will grow to$8 trillion in as lit
49、tle as the next eight yearsthen the opportunity is simply too big to ignore.7 Its significant that the natural evolution of the metaverse as a banking channel is following a similar playbook to banks move online and their adoption of mobile.However,its happening much faster.Many are still skeptical,
50、but when mobile burst onto the scene,few thought it would be feasible to shrink banks online experiences into a space little bigger than the palm of their hand.Just as mobile did,so the metaverse is opening a new world of possibilities.We believe most banks will approach the opportunity with a four-
51、step strategy:enable,engage,invent and imagine.At its most basic level,the metaverse enables banks to interact with their employees and customers in an infinitely richer environment.Just imagine a simulation where a branch team is totally immersed in responding to a bank robbery as it happensthere i
52、s no comparison between that and using conventional training media.The metaverse may be our best opportunity to put humanity back into banking.What if you could engage in a VR conversation with a customer in their living room,as Kookmin Bank does?Or show customers how they can adopt sustainability i
53、n all aspects of their lives,including their finances,as DBSs LiveBetter does?Or use gamified experiences to help young customers improve their financial literacy,as Ally Bank does with its Fintropolis?The potential is limitless.We cannot be certain how this new channel will evolve in the years to c
54、ome or how it will reinvent banking,but few are disputing that the change will be rapid and far-reaching.This will be especially true for paymentsnot how we pay,but rather how we get paid.Trusted standards for acceptance will need to emerge and the form and method of payments will change:will we use
55、 a card to pay in the metaverse or will we AirDrop money to each other?These questions will receive a lot of attention from bankers in the next 12 months47%of them believe customers will use AR/VR as an alternative payments channel by 2030.8 Banking in the metaverse will deliver value.Its hard to im
56、agine everything it will encompass and its still a way off,but the trajectory is emerging.The rapper Snoop Dogg bought land and built a virtual mansion on the Sandbox platform,after which a fan bought a neighboring plot for around$450,000.9 The question for bankers is:would you lend that$450,000?Wou
57、ld you insure the property?The revenue streams could be substantial,and with 400 million active monthly users10 and over 20 banks11 having already set up on the metaverse,someone is sure to grab the opportunity.The metaverse will be one of the biggest trends in banking for years to come.It wont be w
58、ithout riskthe legal and reputational pitfalls are certainly significant.But banks were invented to manage risk.So be curious,be bold and find out what this watershed technology has to offer.”11Banking Top 10 Trends for 20234Right culture,right talentBanks monolithic cultures have been shaken and ex
59、posed by recent events.The pandemic and the accompanying work-from-home upheaval did a lot more than dramatically accelerate banks technological transformation and eliminate employees commute.It also transformed how work is performed and managed,employees levels of autonomy,their expectations regard
60、ing flexibility and a work-life balance,and the sourcing of talent.Taken together,these pose an unprecedented challenge to leadership and the status quo.Banking Top 10 Trends for 202312Many of the positive changes that employees experienced as a result of the pandemic sit uneasily within banks curre
61、nt culture.Their rigid,siloed structures are straining as employees increasingly want to work within fluid,transient teams,acquiring new skills and making frequent changes to their career paths.Whats more,banks ambitions are being stunted by the difficulty of attracting and retaining the people they
62、 need.A global survey revealed in 2021 that more than 40%of employees were thinking of leaving their current jobs.12 Another found that financial services workers are more ambivalent (29%vs.12%)and less optimistic(24%vs 42%)than the global workforce as a whole.13 And a third study showed that only 1
63、0%of Gen Z and Millennials are interested in a career in financial services.14While these issues apply across the business,they are especially pertinent when it comes to priority workforces that make a difference to the banks performance.Revenue-generating roles such as wealth and corporate relation
64、ship management are obvious candidates for special attention,while sustainable finance is already experiencing red-hot demand.Many banks have responded by striving to do the familiar things better.This is unlikely to work.The ongoing digitalization of banks has shifted the balance of their skills pr
65、ofile by automating many routine clerical tasks and at the same time creating new roles requiring scarce specialist skills.While we are seeing many banks reducing the size of their workforce,they are also increasing the average cost of their employees.Their people are becoming more demanding,less ac
66、ceptingand more likely to leave.This altered environment calls for a new mindset and a different approach.In the year ahead we expect to see more banks changing their talent strategy:acknowledging the realities of the employment market and taking a more deliberate approach to aligning talent with th
67、e demands of the business strategy.Successful employers will have a detailed workforce plan that changes the size,cost and skills of their workforce,and they will join up their strategies for sourcing,selection,mobility,development and retention.They will rethink their traditional vertical job hiera
68、rchies and experiment with cross-functional teams in which skills are pre-eminent.They will design fluid organizational models that support movement and progression,agile ways of working and seamless collaboration across silos.They will also take a fresh look at their talent costs,which are too high
69、 and too fixed.Addressing this within their existing work model has,over time,yielded diminishing returns;the alternative is to transform what work gets done and how.A growing number of banks,which in the past might have variabilized their manual-intensive functions by taking advantage of cost arbit
70、rage,are now more likely to offload work that will simply go away over time.By acting now to get ahead of the inevitable,they can focus instead on strategic work.The banks technology strategy will,of course,be an increasingly important input to this plan.Banks would be a lot more effective at this i
71、f their leadership teams were more familiar with technology and the opportunities it bringsour 2021 survey found only 10%of banks directors had professional experience in technology.15 Banks would also benefit from appointing chief transformation officers and other business-oriented technologists wh
72、o ask,about digitalization,not just how but why.Talentone of the five key forces of change which banks can harness to unlock their full potentialwill make ever-increasing demands on banks leadership in the months and years ahead.If it isnt given the priority it deserves,it will quickly assert itself
73、 as a burning platform.The pandemic has forever changed employees expectations.Bankings leadership and cultures need to catch up to the new demands of a more mobile,in-demand talent pool.”13Banking Top 10 Trends for 20235Risk everywhereWhen it became apparent that the pandemic was likely to hit thei
74、r customers hard,banks globally set aside an estimated total of$834 billion in anticipation of a wave of credit losses.16 Toward the end of last year,despite having come through the pandemic relatively unscathed and in the midst of low global unemployment,they again made provision for an increase in
75、 delinquenciesby the end of September they had already set aside$318 billion,9%more than the same time the previous year.17 Clearly,banks believe risk is back.Banking Top 10 Trends for 202314The world has been confronted with geopolitical and climatic instability,energy shortages and a spike in infl
76、ation.Globalization is becoming increasingly unfashionable as governments shift their focus to protect national interests.The war in Ukraine is seeing many more people,across a wide front,gaining experience in the dark arts of cyber intrusion.Crypto has crashed.With rising rates and an impending rec
77、ession,analysts are once again predicting that delinquencies will soar and put stress on banks balance sheets.Until now,banks relied on the truism that a rise in unemployment drives delinquencies and,ultimately,losses.Their response has been to turn to their collections departments,which are wired t
78、o dial for dollars.This time,with gravity returning to markets and the distortion of zero rates easing,things will be different.Homeowners in markets dominated by short-duration mortgages could face the prospect of their payments doubling.Political pressure will force many governments and central ba
79、nks to look to their Covid playbooks to stabilize their markets.Banks will once again be expected to think differently and innovate quickly to prevent fire sales and perhaps even social unrest.In commercial real estate,Covid drove down utilization in many of the bigger markets from as much as 95%to
80、below 50%.18 When the loans on these properties come due the risk assessment by banks and borrowers alike will be quite different than before,with opportunities like the conversion of unused business premises into residential units being considered.The drivers of auto financing are changing in simil
81、ar ways,with affordability,embedded finance,subscription models and other trends combining to change both the level and nature of risk.As consumers tighten their budgets,expect them to arbitrage their options.The warnings that accompanied the launch of buy now,pay later at first seemed to be oversta
82、ted.However,in 2022 it was reported that while the UK market had more than doubled in 12 months to 5.7 billion(US$6.7 billion),almost one in four BNPL users(and 35%of those aged 18-34)had failed to pay their installments on time.19 As inflation continues to choke household budgets,the collapse of th
83、ese unsecured shadow lending markets cannot be dismissed.These new risks and challenges are forcing risk leaders to determineat high speedwhat the likely impact is on the banks strategy and operations.They need to take a more holistic,forward-looking scenario approach to identify which risks should
84、be prioritized,what the appropriate responses are and what investments make sense right now.Banks,and the risk function in particular,will need to continue to evolve.In most cases today,the risk dimension is considered at the end of a process review.In the future,it will need to be an important inpu
85、t in the early stages when decisions are made about business and operating models,organizational structure,product design,data,talent and other critical issues.Looking specifically at the growing risk of loan defaults,banks that have honed their digital capabilities will be much better equipped to h
86、elp their customers manage their financial obligations.This is when their investments in a superior customer experience,in behavioral economics and design-led thinking,and in digital collections will truly pay off.Banks that focus on helping customers solve their problems,rather than getting collect
87、ions to dial for dollars,will significantly outperform their peersnot only by minimizing losses,but by strengthening their long-term relationships with valuable but distressed clients.”15Banking Top 10 Trends for 20236Data becomes a productThe abundance of data has led banks to imagine a glorious fu
88、ture where insight-driven decisions could be made in real-time,customers could be understood in unprecedented detail,and products and services could be personalized to game-changing effect.But so far,most banks have been unsuccessful in using data and core technologies like cloud and AI to drive inn
89、ovations that would make them more relevant to their customers.Banking Top 10 Trends for 202316Data lakes and central data teams were created to facilitate insight-driven decisions,yet in many cases they have become bottlenecks choking the flow of insights to the business.The demands of maintaining
90、the data and its repositories leave most data teams little bandwidth to respond to the businesss data requests.More importantly,banks data is often siloed by line of business,by function and by channel.This not only makes data management more complex and costly,it also causes redundancy and risk and
91、 inhibits sharing and collaboration.The first step to overcoming these problems in 2023 is a shift in mindset:data needs to be regarded as the oxygen that fuels the banks every action,rather than its CO2 that accumulates as an inevitable by-product of its actions.The value to the bank and its custom
92、ers should be recognized and it should be treated the same as a product.There should be product owners whose job is to identify and define the use cases,clean the data,and set up the APIs and structures that allow different teams and systems from all parts of the bank to access it.These product owne
93、rs should promote the data and help the business to use it as effectively as possible.Its not going too far to say they should be incentivized to help the bank meet data-usage targets.This is where the data mesh comes into its own.A data mesh is not a new tech productits a change in mindset,approach
94、 and structure.It has the potential to be,to data,what agile was to our ways of working.It starts with a business use case,which might be the identification of fraud or commercial loan underwriting.Based on the use case,a data product owner assembles the relevant data from all its disparate location
95、s into an organized product,making it easily accessible by means of APIs.Just as any other bank product owner does,the data product owner then works with the business usersdata scientists,business analysts,operations,external partners and moreto help realize the business value.JPMorgan Chase created
96、 a data mesh to improve its fraud detection.It appointed a data product owner who pulled data from debit and credit card usage,check spending and other sources into a data product that allowed the bank to reduce fraud costs without compromising data governance.20In a true data mesh the data is all c
97、onnected,even if it is located in silos across the bank.What it does is create a marketplace for producers and consumers that democratizes data and allows users to analyze cross-domain data on their own,rather than putting their analysis request into the queue for the central data team to process.Th
98、is in turn helps them create business value while driving down costs.By providing a single view of all data it helps eliminate redundancies,simplifies data governance and promotes re-useability.In 2023 we will be hearing a lot more about this new approach.Although data mesh has become a buzzword who
99、se definition is murky,the power of data as a product is clear.The real opportunity will be in finding the right data products to radically change business outcomes.Consider commercial banking.Today,commercial banks collect vast amounts of data from each customerincome statements,balance sheets,lega
100、l information,ownership data,ESG reports,to name a fewand store it in different places all over the organization.Whenever the customer applies for a new product,from a different division,the bank asks for this information all over again.The real opportunity,for banks that organize their data as a pr
101、oduct,is to collect the information once and then use it repeatedly.New commercial loans could be offered in hours,rather than days or weeks.Customer insights could be unlocked to proactively sell new products and AI could help relationship managers in real time to dramatically improve customer inte
102、ractions.Data mesh,together with data product owners,is not the solution to all data problems.Yet it could allow banks to unlock the value trapped in monolithic data lakes and data silosand to fundamentally change the way banking is done.Data,when treated as a product,has the potential to transform
103、the foundations of banking.Banks dont lack data,they lack the means to unlock it,and simply and consistently turn it into actions.Having a data product manager and mindset could be the key to unlocking the value trapped in datavalue that every bank knows it has.”Banking Top 10 Trends for 2023177Fint
104、echs:from disruptors to enablersThe golden era of fintechs and digital-only banks is losing much of its luster.After years of sky-high valuations and a seemingly limitless flow of capital investment,the tide has now turnedto the benefit of incumbent banks especially.Banking Top 10 Trends for 202318T
105、he market capitalization of public fintechs fell by 36%between the end of 2021 and October 2022.21 Klarnauntil July 2022 the highest-valued European fintech at$45.6 billion has lost 85%of its valuation,dropping to$6.7 billion.22The number and value of fintech deals has also declined.In Q3 2022,priva
106、te company financings,IPOs and acquisitions worldwide fell 73%from their peak in Q3 2021.23 Venture capitalists in particular have cooled to fintechs:the number and value of mega rounds in Q3 2022 was the lowest since Q2 2018.24There are several reasons for this turn in the tide,one of the most impo
107、rtant being the rise in the cost of money.Digital-only banks have survived until now on the very fringes of profitability,often kept in the game only by repeated rounds of VC investment.These are now harder to come by.This will not only dampen the disruptive impact of existing fintechs but also like
108、ly reduce the number of new start-ups making their appearance.Whats more,the volatility of this sector may make it less attractive to employees for whom job security has suddenly become a concern.All of this is significantly changing the competitive environment.The hunter is becoming the hunted as f
109、intechs become ripe to be acquired by banks that are eager to take over a particular technology or group of innovators.Other interested parties will be the bigger banking technology providers looking for bargains,and bigtechs looking for a way over the barriers to entry that until now have protected
110、 traditional financial services companies.However,even bigtechs have become less aggressive.Some notable recent deals are Lloyds acquisition of the digital insurer Cavendish Online,25 HDFC Banks investment in the Indian payments fintech Mintoak,26 and BNP Paribas purchase of Kantox,a fintech that au
111、tomates currency risk management.27While fintechs may become less of a direct threat,banks should not become complacent.The start-ups will continue to innovate,and as industry enablers will empower traditional competitors to enhance their offerings.These banks are likely to use their newly acquired
112、experiences and capabilities to compete in the void left by the fintechs and to aggressively grow their market share and revenue.The trend weve seen towards co-opetition between banks and fintechs is likely to continue among well-established providers but may be very different for smaller players.Ba
113、nks,if theyre smart and aggressive,will have the opportunity to retake share in markets like credit,offering unsecured lending to consumers and small businesses.As valuations come back into orbit and fintechs become enablers or the targets of acquisitions,banks should seize this opportunity to devel
114、op or acquire a competitive advantage at a reasonable price,and use it to enter new markets or expand their offerings.”Banks should also be able to reassert themselves as the rightful owners of banking by catching up with fintechs in the delivery of customer service,experiences and value.But to do t
115、his they will need to develop or acquire market advantages and new technologies at reasonable prices and use these to enter new markets or expand their offerings.19Banking Top 10 Trends for 20238Green gets real:the search for common groundAs the rhetoric around climate change intensifies,banks are u
116、nder growing pressure by regulators as well as the gamut of their stakeholdersto play a constructive role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.They are expected not only to become carbon neutral in their own right,but also to helpand if necessary,cajoletheir customers to transition to net zero.If th
117、ese companies cannot or are reluctant to shrink their carbon footprint,banks will increasingly be expected to impose a risk premium or basically a higher cost of lending.Small wonder that sustainability is one of the five key forces of change driving transformation in banking and beyond.Banking Top
118、10 Trends for 202320Most banks have responded positively to their role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Many joined the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero after COP26 in 2021,and a recent Accenture survey found that nearly 60%of the worlds leading banks have committed to net zero and want t
119、o become stewards of the global transition to a net zero economy.28 The problem is that banks are not designed to take on the full spectrum of risk that such a global transition entails.Their fundamental job is to use customers deposits prudently,lending the capital that powers the economy.Yet the t
120、ransition to a net zero economy is a profoundly uncertain undertaking that teems with the sort of risks they would normally be expected to avoid.A more realistic approach to financing a green economy would be to look beyond bankingto an ambitious public-private partnership.This would include venture
121、 capital and private equity firms,which have bigger risk appetites as well as the mandates and resources to take bets on relatively unproven technologies that will fuel a sustainable future.Governments and regulators would be included,facilitating and incentivizing their partners.Currently,only 12%o
122、f large banks are on track to meet their targets for their own as well as their financed emissions.29 Even if the biggest risks were to be taken on by the VC sector,banks that wanted to participate effectively would need to make significant changes to their culture,operating practices and incentive
123、systems.They would need to educate and train their relationship managers to understand their customers carbon challenges a lot better and become adept at identifying their individual pathways to net zero.And they would need to source and analyze accurate,consistent data to measure the risk that each
124、 customer represents and to track its progress in reducing emissions.The war in Ukraine has made it even more difficult for banks to live up to their commitments.The energy crisis caused politicians around the world to reconsider their condemnation of fossil-based fuels.Many have resumed or ramped u
125、p exploration for gas reserves,coal is making a comeback and Europe is exploring new investments in gas infrastructure.The lack of clear leadership is also evident within banks themselves.Our research found that most leaders are committed to their banks climate goals but have not succeeded in embedd
126、ing this across the organization.Many still incentivize the granting of loans to heavy carbon emitters,which leaves relationship managers asking how they are supposed to act.Employees notice the lack of investment in the required new skills and question the firmness of their employers commitment.We
127、believe consensus will be a priority in 2023.Politicians,regulators,activists and everyone else involved will seek common ground and a realistic approach to achieving net zero.We expect transition finance to become the focus,with meaningful conversations being held around public/private partnerships
128、.We also expect green hype to give way to a clearer,more realistic allocation of roles and actions.Sustainability is on the agenda of almost all banks board meetings and is mentioned in all their annual reports.But not enough is happening.Theres no doubt banks have a major role to play,but they cant
129、 do it on their own.Governments and regulators will play critical roles too.”21Banking Top 10 Trends for 20239Life centricity:from journeys to intentFor years now,service providers have focused their attention on the customer experience.The customer journey has been a big part of that,and some firms
130、 have gone so far as to organize themselves around these journeys.Digitalization has helped deliver speed,simplicity and convenience,while data and analytics have enabled companies to better understand their customers and to personalize their offerings.Banks,especially during the pandemic,have been
131、at the forefront of this trend.Banking Top 10 Trends for 202322The benefits of digitalization have been huge,but they came with disadvantages.Banks perfected mobile and remote banking,but in the process the customer journey became functionally correct and emotionally devoid.With 97%of todays banking
132、 touchpoints occurring remotely,banks themselves have become more remote.30 The loss of a human connection has eroded trust,removed a vital barrier to switching and sharpened the competitive focus on price.Its no coincidence that so many banks want to get into wealth managementthey are eagerly seeki
133、ng any emotional engagement that trumps price.For example Fifth Third Bank,a regional US bank,has launched an independent wealth advisory firm in the hope of recruiting users of its standard banking products as clients.31Bigtechs and super-apps are among those who seem to have got it right:they have
134、 moved beyond a journey mindset to understanding and addressing the customers intent.This is similar to the evolution of GPS route-planning systems.Early systems,when given a destination,considered only the obvious routes and directed all their users along these roads.Today,Google Maps(among others)
135、has a lot more information and is a lot more thoughtful.It factors in weather conditions,traffic congestion and roadworks,which might send motorists on surprising detoursbecause it has a better idea of their intent and how best to satisfy it.By knowing what matters most to a customer at any particul
136、ar time,and by combining technology with people skilled in nurturing holistic customer relationships,banks will be able to optimize the experience for that momentand achieve unique and productive connections.The year ahead will see the continued growth of bigtechs and super-apps,all of which are lik
137、ely to continue to syphon off banks traditional revenues by embedding financial services within their platforms and offerings.Banks best defense will be to take a page from their competitors playbooks:widen their aperture and focus on their customers,not only as consumers of specific banking product
138、s but as complex,multifaceted human beings who are doing their best to adapt to circumstances beyond their control.We call this the shift from customer centricity to life centricity.In practice this starts with data,which needs to be organized around the customer rather than the banks products or ch
139、annels(see Data becomes a product on page 16).Think of multiple data lakes of one,each unique to a particular customer.In many ways this emulates what great branch managers have always done:keep track of who their customers are,what they want,where they are going in life and what they are likely to
140、need next.They listen,remember,learn and act on this knowledgeoften proactively.All this data,collected from a wide variety of sources,is mined in real time and analyzed by artificial intelligence to identify intent.Again,this is what great branch managers did in the past;now you can do it consisten
141、tly,at scale,by buying a cognitive enginelike Googles Dialogue Flowwith a credit card.The growth to dominance of the bigtechs and super-apps,and the standards they set,pose difficult questions for banks.Few relish the prospect of becoming a utility or competing with the giants on their own terms.For
142、 these banks,the best option is to strengthen their franchise within their customer base.This means gaining a better understanding of their customers,delivering a constantly improving experience,and demonstrating authentic empathy and purpose.In 2023 banks will begin the move from thinking about cus
143、tomers journeys to their intents.We call this life centricity,and it will better equip banks to understand the different forces shaping customers lives and to deliver the most relevant solutions for their individual contexts.Banks that embrace this approach will be strongly positioned to thrive alon
144、gside their customers.”Banking Top 10 Trends for 20232310Core modernization:a change of heartBanks have long felt the pressure to modernize their core processing systemsand those that want to totally reinvent their enterprise need a strong digital core to thrive in a future where technology is a pri
145、mary source of competitive advantage.This is critical to leverage the power of cloud,data and AI through an interconnected set of systems across the enterprise that allows for the rapid development of new capabilities.But for reasons that have been discussed over and over through the years,most bank
146、s have delayed the move.In 2023,a confluence of factors is driving many banks around the world to reconsider their core systems,which are often 30-40 years old.Our recent survey of almost 100 top banks shows 63%are either in the process of moving their core systems to the cloud or getting ready to d
147、o so.32 Banking Top 10 Trends for 202324Whats finally driving this change of heart?Rising rates that help solve the affordability challenge.Replacing a core is not cheap but in 2023,as interest rates restore one of bankings significant revenue streams,affordability will become less of an obstacle.Ma
148、ny banks will opt to invest this windfall in their future.The demand for product innovation at speed.We expect to see more cross-product innovation along the lines of Amazon Prime,with banks creating integrated product sets that offer greater rewards to customers who accept more of the products.Offe
149、rings like these put a strain on old systems designed for products rather than customers,and for batch processing rather than real-time payments.Fear of being left behind.There was safety in numbers as long as everyone held off.Yet,as Stephen Greer of Celent wrote after JPMorgan Chase announced it w
150、as moving its retail banking systems to Thought Machines Vault platform on the cloud:“No bank wants to wake up one day and realize its still running a COBOL platform on-prem while its biggest competitor is 100%cloud-native.”33 The aging of banks mainframe support teams.Over the years banks worked ha
151、rd to customize their cores to support a plethora of new features and functionality.In the process,however,their core code looked increasingly like a bowl of spaghettiand the only people who know how to untangle it are rapidly retiring.For these banks the choice is stark:upgrade or invest in more CO
152、BOL training.Regulatory pressure.Over the years,banks bolted new regulations onto their legacy code,manually and repeatedly.As a consequence,their risk and regulatory compliance is only as strong as the weakest link in their core.Regulators have taken note and made it clear:fix the fundamentals in y
153、our core or we will eventually merge you into a bank that has done so.34 No need for a Big Bang.The likely disruption caused by a multi-year transformation was always a good excuse for sticking with your mainframe.However,todays cloud-native platforms not only dramatically reduce the timeline;they a
154、lso allow migration and the launch of new products to be done progressively,which reduces the risk.The ROI has improved dramatically.Tech modernization is of course a forever process,but for the reasons above we believe 2023 will be the watershed for the start of core modernization.The balance of pr
155、os and cons has been shifting for years;this is when we reach the tipping point.Many will protest:“But we are modernizing our core systems!”The standard approach has been to incrementally improve them in bits and pieces by leveraging new middle-office and front-end platforms.Yet the benefits have be
156、en marginal as this effort has failed to address the heart of the problem.It has become clear now that the only acceptable approach will be one that enables not only efficiency,flexibility and security,but also hyper-personalization,transparency,product innovation and real-time processing.With the w
157、indfall from rising rates,many banks will use 2023 to start tackling their legacy environments and creating modern banking operating systems for the next decades.The ones that solve this challenge will be incredibly well positioned to grow,consolidate andmost importantlydeliver exceptional,innovativ
158、e products more efficiently than their competitors.”The next 12 months will be a great opportunity for banks to invest in the future and become reinventors.This will be the year when they show they can be innovative and fleet of foot and are committed to delivering a competitive experience for their
159、 customers.25Banking Top 10 Trends for 2023The rise of interest rates in 2023 will restore the logic of banking and reimpose the gravity that has underpinned its normality since the dawn of the industry.Deposits will regain their value and deliver a windfall to virtually all banks.At the same time,h
160、igher rates will stress lending markets and expose distortions that for years have lain hidden in the industry.The year will certainly not be without its risks.Not all banks will use their increased profits in the same way.Many will simply pass it on to their shareholders in the form of dividends or
161、 stock buybacks.Others will see it as an opportunity to become reinventors by confronting the new emerging risks,building their digital core,creating stronger workforces,and laying the foundation for greater,more sustainable returns.By harnessing the five key forces of change,banks have an opportuni
162、ty to combine the best of what we witnessed in the rise of neobanking with their traditional strengths to create a bright new future.There is no right or wrong answerevery bank faces a unique set of demands and pressures.But given the daunting challenges they face,the decisions made in the year ahea
163、d are likely to be critical.What all banks do have in common is a growing need to address change more rapidly than before,and where possible,simultaneously instead of sequentially.This compressed transformation will test the mettle of all organizations,their leaders and their workforces.Given the fa
164、r-reaching import of the trends that weve described,each banks decisions will set it on a course that will shape its destiny for years to come.Careful contemplation,wisdom and decisive action will surely be the differentiators that allow the leaders of tomorrow to claim the future.A time for new hop
165、eConclusionBanking Top 10 Trends for 202326References1.Accenture Research analysis based on FDIC.2.Bank of America newsroom,“Bank of Americas Unique Approach to Loyalty Rewards Translates into Record Client Satisfaction and Retention”,27 September,2019.3.Discovery Bank website,Discovery Bank and Vit
166、ality Money Rewards.4.Accenture Research analysis based on central banks data and project experience.5.Chase media center,“Chase Expands Retail Branches to All Lower 48 States”,4 August,2021.6.Accenture,Global Banking Consumer Study,2022.7.Citi GPS:Global Perspectives&Solutions,“Metaverse and Money:
167、decrypting the future”,March,2022.8.The Financial Brand,“14 Surprising Predictions on the Future of Banking”,8 November,2021.9.Rolling Stone,“Someone Spent$450,000 for Land Next to Snoop Doggs NFT House”,7 December,2021.10.Metaversed,the Metaverse Consulting Company,“The Metaverse Universe and Radar
168、 chart”,Q4,2002.11.Accenture Research,October 2022.12.Microsoft Work Trend Index Annual Report,“The Next Great Disruption Is Hybrid Work Are We Ready?”,22 March,2021.13.Accenture,“Future of Work survey”,29 November,2022.14.CNBC,Make it your money,“Why todays most promising young people are choosing
169、to work in tech instead of finance”,18 May,2017.15.Accenture,“Boosting the bank boards technology expertise”,11 March,2021.16.Accenture Research based on S&P Capital IQ.17.Ibid.18.NBER,“Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse”,September,2022.19.Financial Times,“Buy now pay later boom fu
170、els consumer debt concerns as transactions soar”,22 February,2022.20.AWS Big Data Blog,“How JPMorgan Chase built a data mesh architecture to drive significant value to enhance their enterprise data platform”,5 May,2022.21.Coatue,“Fintech and the Pursuit of the Prize:Who Stands to Win Over the Next D
171、ecade?”,24 October,2022.22.TechCrunch+,“Klarna confirms$800M raise as valuation drops 85%to$6.7B”,11 July,2022.23.FT Partners,“Q3 2022 Insights Report”,Q3,2022.24.CB Insights,“The State of Venture:Q3 2022 Global Report”,Q3,2022.25.Lloyds Banking Group,“Lloyds Banking Group has announced its intentio
172、n to acquire Cavendish Online”,15 June,2022.26.Live Mint,“HDFC Bank to acquire 7.75%stake in fintech start-up Mintoak”,14 December,2022.27.BNP Paribas press release,“BNP Paribas signed an agreement for the acquisition of Kantox”,11 October,2022.28.Accenture,“Rising to the challenge of net zero banki
173、ng”,8 November,2022.29.Ibid.30.Accenture,Global Banking Consumer Study,2022.31.Financial Planning,“Fifth Third plans$10 billion RIA with new advisors”,3 November,2022.32.Accenture,“Banks need a flight plan to navigate the cloud”,7 December,2022.33.Celent,“JPMC,Thought Machine,and the next 10 years o
174、f core modernization in the US”,22 September,2022.34.European Central Bank|Banking Supervision,ECB Supervisory Board meeting,22 July,2022.27Banking Top 10 Trends for 2023Connect with MichaelLinkedIn BlogRead Michaels blogsThis content is provided for general information purposes and is not intended
175、to be used in place of consultation with our professional advisors.This document refers to marks owned by third parties.All such third-party marks are the property of their respective owners.No sponsorship,endorsement or approval of this content by the owners of such marks is intended,expressed or i
176、mplied.Copyright 2023 Accenture.All rights reserved.Accenture and its logo are registered trademarks of Accenture.About AccentureAccenture is a leading global professional services company that helps the worlds leading businesses,governments and other organizations build their digital core,optimize
177、their operations,accelerate revenue growth and enhance citizen servicescreating tangible value at speed and scale.We are a talent and innovation led company with 738,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries.Technology is at the core of change today,and we are one of the worlds leaders i
178、n helping drive that change,with strong ecosystem relationships.We combine our strength in technology with unmatched industry experience,functional expertise and global delivery capability.We are uniquely able to deliver tangible outcomes because of our broad range of services,solutions and assets a
179、cross Strategy&Consulting,Technology,Operations,Industry X and Accenture Song.These capabilities,together with our culture of shared success and commitment to creating 360 value,enable us to help our clients succeed and build trusted,lasting relationships.We measure our success by the 360 value we c
180、reate for our clients,each other,our shareholders,partners and communities.Visit us at Stay ConnectedAbout Accenture ResearchAccenture Research creates thought leadership about the most pressing business issues organizations face.Combining innovative research techniques,such as data science led anal
181、ysis,with a deep understanding of industry and technology,our team of 300 researchers in 20 countries publish hundreds of reports,articles,and points of view every year.Our thought-provoking research developed with world leading organizations helps our clients embrace change,create value,and deliver on the power of technology and human ingenuity.For more information,visit AuthorMichael Abbott Senior Managing Director Global Banking LeadContributors Francesca Caminiti,Dariusz Orynek,Alejandro Luis Borgo,Corrine Vitolo,Stefan Bongardt,Tony Rattey