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1、Outlook for Advertising,Marketing and Data 2022:The Rally Will ContinueBruce Biegel,Senior Managing Partner January 20,2022AboutWinterberry GroupWinterberry Group is a strategic consultancy specializing in advertising,marketing,data,technology and commerce.With our deep industry,operational and M&A
2、expertise we bridge strategic growth and tactical execution.Our market insight and intelligence provides unprecedented speed to action.Through our highly collaborative approaches,we enable knowledge transfer and actionability,giving our clients a competitive edge and driving increasing employee,clie
3、nt and shareholder value.2 2Looking Back at 2021:US Economy Rebounds;Marketing Investment AcceleratesBenchmark:2x GDP GrowthWhat a Difference a Year Makes42.3%-3.4%5.5%3.9%4.4%-4.8%21.5%11.8%20022PUS Marketing Spend Growth Benchmarked to GDP Growth2019 2022PUS Advertising/Marketing Spend
4、GrowthUS GDP GrowthForecastSource:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022),S&P Global(2021)$361.2$377.0$358.9$436.320021US Annual Advertising and Marketing Spend2018 2021($BB)Review 2021:The COVID Recession of 2020 Led to an Advertising Onslaught in 20215Source:Winterberry Group Spend Esti
5、mates(2022)+4.4%-4.8%+21.6%Review 2021:Spend Not Only Eclipsed 2019 Levels,Analysts(including WG)Missed Forecasts With Continuous Growth Revisions6$233.6$224.2$182.2$196.0$127.7$152.9$176.7$240.4$361.2$377.0$358.9$436.320021Offline Marketing SpendOnline Marketing SpendTotalUS Marketing Sp
6、end on Offline and Online Channels2018 2021($BB)CAGRs(2018-2021):-5.7%+23.5%+6.5%TOTALSource:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022)Review 2021:Spend on Offline Channels,Mostly Flat Pre-COVID Revised for 4Q20 Upward Revisions,Rebound Significantly In 2021Linear TV$60.1Addressable TV$2.9Radio$11.9New
7、spaper$7.0Magazine$7.5Direct Mail$41.9Traditional Outdoor$7.1Experiential/Sponsorship$36.1Shopper Marketing$21.6+11.0%+27.6%+9.0%+16.8%+33.2%-6.1%-8.1%Source:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022)+7.6%+10.4%US Offline Marketing Spend,2021($BB)Total:$196.0BB-3.2%7Review 2021:Direct Mail Volumes Rebo
8、unded From a Low in 2020 With A Ramp in 2Q21 and Continuing for the Balance of the Year882,290,52577,801,77867,048,10270,220,20202021Direct Mail Volumes2018 2021Source:USPS(2021)-5.5%+4.7%-13.8%201920202021Percent Change in Acquisition and Retention For Marketing Mail 2019 2021Acquisition
9、RetentionUnder-The-Numbers:Acquisition Mail Up 14.6%,Now Accounts for 80%of Mail;Loyalty/Cross-Sell Gains Off-Set Systemic Declines9Source:Comperemedia(2021)-23.0%-16.1%+14.6%Acquisition mail approaching 2019 volumes after 14.6%growth in 2021 Follow-up(-25.7%)and renewal mailing(-23.4%)experiencing
10、the sharpest declines across retention formats Cross-sell(14.1%)and loyalty(10.1%)mailing leading the surge in retention mails 2021 comeback+7.9%Source:Mintel/ComperemediaReview 2021:Shift to Video Formats Across Channels was the Prime Catalyst;Marketers Follow the Digitally Engaged Consumer10Email/
11、SMS$5.7Display$14.1Digital Video$41.0Affiliate Network Fees$3.4Search$84.7Digital Out-of-Home$3.1Digital Audio(Radio/Podcasts)$5.6CTV/Streaming$14.4Paid Social$58.6Video Game Advertising$5.0Influencer$4.6+10.8%+15.8%+39.1%+19.9%+17.0%+59.9%+43.1%+33.3%Source:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022)No
12、te:Display refers to banner ads that appear on desktop;affiliate network fees exclude media and platform costs+36.0%+46.2%+27.8%+22.9%US Online Marketing Spend,2021($BB)Total:$240.4BBReview 2021:Data,Identity,Services and Platforms Spend All Saw Robust Expansion,Gaining Share As a Percent of Media t
13、o 12.3%11Direct Mail$8.2Email$3.2Digital Media and Web Personalization$13.6TV(Linear,Addressable and CTV)$4.3+26.4%+4.5%+11.9%+46.7%Source:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022)Note:Web Personalization includes web and app;Digital Media includes display,video and paid social;TV includes linear,addr
14、essable and CTV;Data,Identity,Data Services and Platforms includes analytics(modeling,measurement and attribution),spend on CRM,CDP and DMP platforms,database management and hygiene,excludes cloud hosting services+34.5%US Spending on Data,Identity,Data Services and Platforms,by Channel,2021($BB)Tota
15、l:$29.3BBDigital Media/Commerce$201.8(1,571)Marketing Technology$98.1(1,543)Agency&Marketing Services$12.1(441)Traditional Media$31.3(329)Digital Advertising$29.7(166)M&A and Investment Activity,2021($BB)Marketing,Media and Technology Industries(#of Transactions)2021 M&A:ARecord 4,050 M&A and Invest
16、ment Transactions Totaling$373.0BB in Value,up in Both Categories From 202012Source:CG/Petsky Prunier(2021)Total deal value increased 148.2%,up from$150.3BB in 2020Activity increased 41.9%,up from 2,855 deals in 2020Agency Holding CompaniesData and TechnologyPrivate EquityMar 2021Acquiredfor$1.4BB20
17、21 M&A Themes:Focus on CX,Creative,Programmatic and Retail Media13Jul 2021AcquiredJul 2021Acquiredfor$250MMAug 2021&Completed merger as2021Into“.Monks”Acquired&Consolidated:July 2021Acquiredfor$500MMMar 2021Acquired&Nov 2021AcquiredOct 2021Merges withDec 2021Announced to acquireDec 2021Announced to
18、Acquiredfor$380MMNov 2021AcquiredAug 2021Investing inSept 2021Acquires For$5BB,rebrands as YahooMacro Trends:Whats Driving the MarketTrend:Accelerating Focus on More Integrated,Holistic Experiences 15Consumers expect consistent and exceptional experiences.To meet expectations,brands are increasing f
19、ocusand spendon digital experiences,platforms and personalization.TrendMarketers seek acceleration of omnichannel integration;going beyond digital transformation and customer experience to a holistic brand experience requires faster“de-silo-ization”of marketing,servicing and supply chains.ImpactTren
20、d:The Need for Consistent Content Everywhere16In an”always on”world,consumers demand quality content at scale across channels.Brands focus on speed to content,quality control and cost.TrendAll creators of content have to consider the who and where before the whatthinking downstream utilization at th
21、e point of creation,building and delivering assets across formats and touchpoints.ImpactTrend:Rise of Connected Commerce and Retail Marketplaces17The concept of DTC has changed:digital and physical shelves are integrating inventory,BOPIS and BORIS while brands are simultaneously reallocating spend a
22、cross upper and mid-funnel,focusing on retail and other media marketplaces.TrendSource:eMarketer(2021)Retail media ad spend projected to double from$20BB in 2020 to$40BB in 2022;not just about AMZN,WMT,TGT and BBYmarketplaces can be regional,national and cross-border,forcing the media conversation t
23、owards outcomes from impressions.ImpactTrend:Finding Balance in a More Regulated,Privacy-First World18Privacy and data regulation accelerates.Regulators,browser changes,consumer choice impact targeting and attribution.Its about direct relationships in afirst-party world.TrendDoes identifier deprecat
24、ion matter?Its about control,competition and choice.No national privacy legislation this yearbut an activist FTC.ImpactTrend:Linear&Advanced TV-Colliding and Converging19The growth of connected video consumption across places,channels and devices is about seeking higher engagement.Video spend expect
25、ed to reach$130BB in 2022 across linear,digital video and CTVwhere 72%of marketers see growth.TrendReaching the consumer across any device or platform will continue to drive consolidation of media providers and demand to integrate buyingimproving the ability to manage reach/frequency and transformin
26、g measurement.ImpactSource:Mediaocean(2021)Trend:Influencer Marketing in Transformation Still Seeks Brand Suitability,Measurability20Who owns the influencer relationship between creative,paid media and digital commerce with the rise of social commerce happening?A convergence of influencer and affili
27、ate marketing.TrendWith$11BB in 2022 spend,its about speeding the path-to-purchase,shortening the buying cycle and enabling social commerce.How hard will it be to manage experience,creators,suitability,safety and measurement?ImpactTrend:The B2B Digital Shift Continues Its Accelerated Expansion21From
28、 2019 to 2020,B2B digital spend grew 50%year over year and another 29.4%increase in 2021.B2B eCommerce is expected to grow at a 17.9%CAGR and hit$1.9 trillion by 2023doubling from 2019TrendB2B performance marketing will reach$30BB this year.Demand generation and ABM continue to be top of mind with a
29、n increasing adoption of programmatic intent.Content consumption up by 20%,and the focus is on reach,quality and privacy.ImpactSource:eMarketer(2021)Trend:Do you Get Gaming?Real Life and the Metaverse22There are 227MM video game players(consumers)in the US spending nearly$180BB in 2021 across mobile
30、,console and PC.In-game ads are still primarily mobile as brands partner with gaming providers to capitalize on the next digital frontier.TrendAdvertising in video games is expected to reach$5.8BB in 2022.Building worlds in the Metaverse is not new,though this,along with NFTS,AR/VR and immersive exp
31、eriences,are the next big thingbut hardware has to catch up.ImpactSource:Entertainment Marketing Association(2021),Newzoo(2021)Trend:The Great Resignation and Talent Supply Chains23In 2020 they were let go,retired,sent home,saved by government subsidy and taken off the road.In 2021 many decided not
32、to come back(or come back differentlyand more expensively).Trend2022 is still very much about talentit is about the right skills,having enough people to manage profitable growth with consideration for DEI,ESG,WFA(work from anywhere),in-house,on-shore and offshore.ImpactData,Data Services&Data Techno
33、logy:Fast Times in the Data WorldA(Re)View of The Data-Technology Relationship25At the data layer,customer and prospect data is ingested,consolidated and standardized with the end goal of using the data for analysis and activationAt the intelligence layer,marketers and advertisers leverage customer
34、profiles to drive insights,gain audience intelligence and inform a range of marketing and advertising decisioning-related use casesAt the activation layer,marketers and advertisers use applications and platforms to communicate across outbound(email,display or Advanced TV)and inbound(website,app,or c
35、ustomer service)channels.Source:Winterberry Groups Demystifying Decisioning&Orchestration(2020)Identity:Losing Identifiers,the Race to First Party Relationships and Contextual Rising26The delay of cookie deprecation pushed out transformation,yet with Apple iOS,ATT(along with Edge,Firefox,etc.)and st
36、ate-based privacy regulation,cookies are going away anyway.Identity marketing solutions,platforms and services spend reached$5.44BB in 2021nearly 2x 2018 spend.The ID market continues to evolve based on privacy and ecosystem adoption,but going forward 4 primary solutions are likely to be leveraged:F
37、irst-party cookiesEmail centric identifiers(UIDs)Cohort solutions(FLOCS and other birds)Contextual solutionsSource:Winterberry Spend Estimates(2022)Note:Identity solutions reference ID data for activation and measurement and include spend on data,resolution and data management(including clean rooms
38、and related services)Data Management:Adoption of CDPs,Clean Rooms and an Improved Data Layer Integration27Fueled by the transformation of marketing data use cases and channels,spend on data technology reached$7.9BB in 2021,a 35.2%increase from 2020.Market consolidation and rapid growth will continue
39、 through 2022 as the CDP(frequently adjacent to a CRM)becomes the hub of personalization,activation and measurement.Implementation and management skills shortages may hamper brands ability to fully leverage their investments.Source:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022)Note:Identity technology solu
40、tions include spend on CDPs,DMPs and CRM solutionsPutting the Layers Together:Customer Journey Management28A strategic approach to understanding an individuals need in the moment,in order to meet that need as early as possible,and in the most convenient manner for the individualSource:Winterberry Gr
41、oups“The Evolution of Customer Journey Management,For Marketing and Beyond”(2021)And How Should We Think About Customer Journey Use Cases?29Campaign CentricJourney Centric Optimization of Prospect JourneyOptimization and Orchestration of CXOptimization of Abandoned JourneysPersonalization of Custome
42、r ServiceOmnichannel CommunicationBasic CommunicationsThe Customer Journey Management Curve:We Are Very Early30Source:Winterberry Groups“The Evolution of Customer Journey Management,For Marketing and Beyond”(2021)Note:n=156 brand marketers and marketing decision-makersIs It the Year of Attribution Y
43、et?31Spend on analytics,from prescriptive and predictive through measurement and attribution,eclipsed$7.5BB in 2021,up$1.0BB(16.7%)from 2020.Attribution is still near the top of everyones wish list yet faces headwindsLosing identifiers continue to pressure MTAWalled garden“black holes”Evolving stand
44、ards in“TV/CTV”Insufficient analytics talentThe Changing Needs of Measurement and Attribution32Understand path to purchase and the customer journeyAssign credit and optimize marketing spendBrand lift,sales,etc.Who did we reach?Marketing Measurement HierarchyHolistic ViewMultichannel AttributionCampa
45、ign ROIAudience ReachMeasurement and Analytics ApproachQuantify the impact of different marketing channels and tactics(the marketing mix)on financial outcomes over timeIntegrates MMM and MTA for a holistic viewMarketing Mix Modelling(MMM)Unified MeasurementMulti-Touch Attribution(MTA)Quantify the im
46、pact of marketing activities on metrics associated with granular conversion events to guide decisions about future marketing spendOutlook for Spending 2022:Following the MoneyOutlook 2022:High Probability for Solid Growth,With Marketing Ad Spend Up Double Digits For Second Consecutive Year34 US GDP
47、growth is estimated at 3.9%,continuing the de-acceleration of growth Fed will give the US a series of interest rate hikes,designed to combat the effects of inflationa number expected to grow at 3.5%(Democrats)or 7%(Republicans),The FTC is going to keep the pressure on“controlling”the major social an
48、d ad platforms in the name of privacy and competitive marketsOutlook Dependencies:COVID vaccine penetration and the next waves impact on employment Easing of supply chain challenges Global macro-economic and political risk Mid-term electionsjust how nasty this time?YearSpend($BB)YoY Growth(%)2019$37
49、7.02020$358.82021$436.32022P$487.8-4.4%21.6%11.8%US Advertising and Marketing Spend 2019 2022P($BB)Source:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022),S&P Global(2021)Trend:VC and PE Have Loaded Up With CashMaking for Another Year of Active M&A35VC funds raised$130BB in capital:investments were$349BB and
50、 exits reached$177BB in 2021.TrendValuations rose throughout the year and the supply of available capital is higher than evermarket pullbacks for internet related equity(Platforms,Adtech,MarTech),could put valuations under pressure eventually.ImpactSource:Pitchbook-NVCA Monitor(2022)Outlook 2022:Lin
51、ear Gets a Boost from Election Cycle,DM Benefits from Omnichannel Commerce36Linear TV$62.1Addressable TV$3.6Radio$12.4Newspaper$6.3Magazine$6.2Direct Mail$43.4Traditional Outdoor$8.2Experiential/Sponsorship$42.2Shopper Marketing$23.2+7.4%+16.8%+15.0%+3.9%+27.4%-9.1%-17.2%+3.5%Source:Winterberry Grou
52、p Spend Estimates(2022)+5.9%+3.5%US Offline Marketing Spend,2022P($BB)Total:$207.6BBOutlook 2022:More Digital Tailwinds as Continued Corporate Profit Growth Fuels InvestmentMore Video All the Time37Email/SMS$6.1Display$15.5Digital Video$50.4Affiliate Network Fees$4.0Search$95.2Digital Out-of-Home$3.
53、6Digital Audio(Radio/Podcasts)$6.3CTV/Streaming$19.1Paid Social$67.4Video Game Advertising$5.8Influencer$7.0+7.1%+9.9%+12.3%+14.2%+11.9%+32.3%+51.3%+15.1%Source:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022)Note:Display refers to banner ads that appear on desktop;affiliate network fees exclude media and pl
54、atform costs+16.6%+23.1%+15.6%+14.1%US Online Marketing Spend,2022P($BB)Total:$280.3BBOutlook 2022:Fueled By Digital Tailwinds,Enhanced Omnichannel Data Solutions-Identity and Data Spend Sees Strong Growth38Direct Mail$8.5Email$3.5Digital Media and Web Personalization$16.1TV(Linear,Addressable and C
55、TV)$5.1Source:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022)Note:Web Personalization includes web and app;Digital Media includes display,video and paid social;TV includes linear,addressable and CTV;Data,Identity,Data Services and Platforms includes analytics(modeling,measurement and attribution),spend on C
56、RM,CDP and DMP platforms,database management and hygiene,excludes cloud hosting servicesUS Spending on Data,Identity,Data Services and Platforms,by Channel,2022P($BB)Total:$33.1BB+13.1%+3.5%+7.4%+18.3%+19.2%Outlook 2022:Adding Another$50BB,Driven By Economic ExpansionHave We Reached Peak Growth and
57、Transformation?39$224.2$182.2$196.0$207.6$152.9$176.7$240.4$280.3$377.1$358.9$436.3$487.820022POffline Marketing SpendOnline Marketing SpendTotalUS Marketing Spend on Offline and Online Channels2019 2022P($BB)CAGRs(2019-2022E):-2.5%+22.4%+8.9%TOTALSource:Winterberry Group Spend Estimates(2022).Thank you.Bruce Biegel,Senior Managing P(212)842 6030 WinterberryGrp London New York Miami