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1、 1 Table_First!#$!%$!#$%&Table_First|Table_Summary !#$!#$%002930.SZ&!#$%&()*+,-!#$%&()*+,-.!#$%!#$%&()%&()%*+,-./012$34*56789*+,-./012$34*56789:56;?A3BC-DEF356G5HIJKLM9NOPQR4*G5STUVWXY#Z3HPQ3-DEF9_abScdefHgh3ij78kl3mnonpqrstuvwxSdtyz3cd|dt3S93x=?jN4356?j3cdH“3s”cdux”r9J3hSc?”r3xSQdt-st3cHNrf3kl-sc
2、d3ef.u.9 01?kl3dtx”r901?kl3dtx”r93Ruz3-D9X34*G5S56q*Gu8O?3r!qJ9hcd?Wxnodt3_abSrst3Snp3klv?22H1klG5HI59.7%3UHI20.9%3noV”r+13.0%9223kl566325.333*G8.32m2m1.83 m2!3811#3cd9 kldt3cd$%J&9kldt3cd$%J&91!kl(On)qcH*+,3h-.cd?q/”G5N+/,&012q&345I678S9S3:O5Idt9;9S?AB3jklH“JCz92!DEdF4G3HIJOKKLM3N56!q5,OEFqPQREFSTU
3、wVWX3cdFYZ&93!klNrr3-_a_o1=aSf1bc+3j-Sd9 ef/!g%ef/!g%hi-j*,-./S2klkl32023PEj20.0m9hinopq=4*G5HZr3PQklscdtklijH78ucd3v!cdwZKK2.3x$y+z|$%|cdef3klH“J9ekl2022/23/24j2.3q4.0q5.13D202330mPE3R.926.61367Dyz9%TUc,9 财务数据和估值财务数据和估值 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营 业 收 入(百 万元)848 1,088 1,067 1,556 1,888 增长率(%)75
4、%28%-2%46%21%净利润(百万元)228 272 229 401 506 增长率(%)56%20%-16%75%26%EPS(元/股)0.50 0.60 0.51 0.89 1.12 市盈率(P/E)42.5 35.6 42.3 24.2 19.1 市净率(P/B)4.5 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.1 数据来源:公司公告、华福证券研究所 Table_First|Table_ReportDate!#$2023%02&22 Table_First|Table_Rating/0/01 1234523456 6.()*+,-21.43./0*+,-26.61.Table_First|Tabl
5、e_MarketInfo 12341234 总股本/流通股本(百万股)452/429 总市值/流通市值(百万元)9687/9186 每股净资产(元)4.99 资产负债率(%)66.82 一年内最高/最低(元)24.6/16.07 Table_First|Table_Chart 一年内股价相对走势一年内股价相对走势 团队成员团队成员 567 89:!#$%&S02() Table_First|Table_RelateReport;!#$%&()%*+,-./01234567%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%--0420
6、22-------012023-02宏川智慧沪深300 ()*+!#$%&()2 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 789:789:?A?A,A 1,BCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRDEESTUVWXVYZ_abcdefbgWhijklmnop/qrXstuvwxyz22-24%lmOPQRDEES|W5+18.3%T+30.7%22%nES|W10%T+10.0%DE%UVW5 70%T75%T81%&VY5-2.0%
7、T1.0%T1.2%A 2,gFGHIJKLMNOPgSTUVWXVYZ“”jklmLgnoyz22-24%lmOPgS|W5+81.5%T+94.8%T+23.6%UVW5 70%T80%T82%&VY5175.0T190.0T200.0./&A 3,Nnop/qrTstuvZlm 2022%WOenop/stuvXPaWO-nyz 22-24%W5 62.5%T65.5%T66.3%lmN 2022%_defbgWZ,sthiaTDi|_baclmstUVW-UV*+O|nop/qrXstuvlmOPDEES|PXPalm R*dR*d Dystuvyst|y X/0*+X/0*+2 Ll
8、m2023%2 lm PE 20.0 _abcDelmOstlmCst!KsthiuvnaP#$no+%()st*+lm,|yzlm 2022/23/24%-./05 2.3T4.0T5.1 1.lm 22%PE2 34XwG 23%y34 2023%30 PE5/0*26.61.678934$:K%;?=?ABCs=DGno=eZaVfVfV8XbUbZdX6MaOaQnPqQoMoNjMqQoMeRpNzR6MmNnNNZqQyQMYqRxO ()*+!#$%&()3 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 正文目录正文目录 1 1 gDEFGstagDEFGsta .5
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11、JKz.6 vv6,KJK1.T,KJK1.TYOY.7 vv7,01.TW,01.TW.7 vv8,iW,iW.7 vv9,-./01.T,-./01.TYOYT-./WT-./W.7 vv10,KJK1.T,KJK1.TYOY.8 vv11,T,TYOY.8 vv12,T,TYOY.8 vv13,T,TYOY.8 vv14,LMp/!s,LMp/!s.9 vv15,L#$,L#$.9 vv16,L#,L#.9 vv17,gDDES T,gDDES TYOY.10 vv18,.10 vv19,DE%UVWT,DE%UVWTYOY.11 vv20,lmstA,lmstA2022%.12 vv2
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13、,5IJKW,5IJKW.18 vv31,lm,lm2023%2&22.19 图表图表32:财务预测摘要:财务预测摘要.20 ()*+!#$%&()5 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 1 23456789:;?23456789:;?1.1 BHIJKgDGBHIJKgDG M 2012%11&)MOVlm2015%oM lm-gLMsCsTXi?DFGHI;HIDFGHI;YABIXHLMJKgDG2015%11&q!2018%3&!d vv1,lmwx,lmwx *+,-./.01./23145#6789 1.2:LMIClmQNO:LMIClmQNO 2022Q3:LM
14、IC#Olm 4.5%RynMOVlmTMgOVlm#Olm 43.6%RyGzOlm 48.1%RylmQNO vv2,lm,lmRywzRywz2022%09&30 *+,-./.0145#6789 ()*+!#$%&()6 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 1.3 DFGHIlmPQIDFGHIlmPQI lmDYFGHI?LKIDFGHIBCDEFGHITgFGHI THITYHIHI DFGHIlm“5JKDFGHIlm“5JKW#W#2022H1DFGHIJK 5.6 1.+11.0%JK 92.5%W 59.7%BCDEFGHIJK 5.4 1.+11.2%JK
15、 88.6%W 64.3%gFGHIJK 0.2 1.+5.9%JK 3.9%W 85.4%lmPQIDFGHI(HI vv3,lmLKI|lmLKI|89$+89$+:;$+:;$+$+=$+?ABCDE+FG?HAE+IJKLFGMNOM?HMPQRSTUVWXYZE+$+BP_B?abc deAE+IJKLdeM;PfghSTUVWXYZE+$+BP_B?abc CDBijE+klamMCDMQno_M npqrh$+sB?abc YtuNvE+?wvE+kxTUVWXYy?z3|MMXNMwehE+c abNE+kxSTUYtabVWMMNhE+c)E+TEE+TUaKLTE“”M3O
16、D?yXY3XTESTUVW|MM 3E+c BvE+KLFGfS-nVW#$3XE+3aM?yf#f3vfvc XYyE+IKL;?e3yXSTUVWM33yE+TUAYt VTU9c QKE+ISd3QVWMQMQyMMQMHhE+BSMVWBh!#E+c *+,-./.0145#6789 vv4,I|JKI|JK vv5,lmlm2022H1LKIJKzLKIJKz *+,-./.0145#6789 *+,-./.0145#6789!#$%&%$&%&%&(&)&$&*&+&,&!&-./02345:;?912345ABCDEFG912345HIJK912345HI
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18、/0 1.8 1.-12.6%-./W 19.7%-6.6pp2021%B%KJ 10.9 1.+28.2%7.1 1.+30.2%W 65.3%-.2.7 1.+19.5%-./W 25%tp/stOTatp/stOTa4lm2022%8&17tBC 7#6NVilmsta2022%10&26 tngxGzES 1.20 m3 4 DE!K#K0tp/B“!K#KBCdK!#27$58$%iDED&st|y vv6,KJK1.TKJK1.TYOY vv7,01.TW01.TW *+,-./.0145#6789 *+,-./.0145#6789 vv8,iWiW vv9,-./01.T-./0
19、1.TYOYT-./WT-./W *+,-./.0145#6789 *+,-./.0145#6789-././0/.0/0.*/0(*/0+*/0.*/0&*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*10-(9$232./.&/&.,/*+&$*/0(*/0+*/0.*/0&*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*10-(454/0/*/(/*/0(*/0+*/0.*/0&*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*10-(678Nv89&8:+8-*/*/+/&/0*(*/0(*/0+*/0.*/0&*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*10-(;=5232;=()*+!#
20、$%&()8 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 2 ABCDEFGHI?:JKL9MNOPQABCDEFGHI?:JKL9MNOPQ 2.1 st#()DYZst#()DYZ hi|g#|hi|g#|2020%_c()2021%KJK 14.5 1.#*30.0%22H1 KJ 20.9%4Hj+34 2020%N_Z*|2021%3.4 3.2%2022%#|12&+11.1%2020-2022%HT,|HasCsXH_B-abi|.CY|st()/g#|DYZst()/g#|DYZ04H34Hst#1()2021%Ht29.251/%/3900/%p/Ics2022%ct
21、2|4H3z2021%H/g 45.1 1+7.7%_)abc4i|vv10,KJK1.TKJK1.TYOY vv11,T TYOY *+,-./.0145#6789 *+,-./.01:;145#6789 vv12,T TYOY vv13,T TYOY *+,-.?ABC145#6789 *+,-.?ABC145#6789-*/-0/0/*/(/+/.,)000(0.*/0+*/0.*/0&*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*0?$9$ABCD232-./.0/0*(+*/0+*/0.*/0&*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*E0-)F8AGD232/.0/0.*/0/
22、0./*/*./*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*E0-0/HIJKLF8AGD232/.0/0.*/*M/+M/&M/$M/0/M/*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*/*0NJKLF8AGD232 ()*+!#$%&()9 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 vv14,LMp/!sLMp/!s TUTU VWVW/XYVWZXYVWZ _ abcabc/dede WfghWfgh 1 2019.05/2020.07 ijk;lm;nopqr(sNr)t;W0bc 2,000 uv/wkxy450 uv/w PXz2018w|150 uv/w 2 2019.
23、11 t;k;lm;l t;bc 4000 uv/wkxy800 uv/wy280 uv/w 3 2020.06 Nk;lm;k;lm;bc 1,000 uv/wkxy80 uv/w 4 2020.09 N;“k;lm;”“t;bc 1200 uv/w”1,500 uv/wkx”100 uv/we 5 2020.11 t;k;lm;t;bc 2,000 uv/wkxywW 520 uvywW 140 uv 6 2021.04“N x/S“nt;W0bc Wf 220 uv/ww-W600 uvt;W 7 2021.08 k;lm;l”“t;W0bc 1000 uv/wkxy130 uv/w P
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27、T5X&UUVpWXX+VNJKY$Z%&ng3_04 abc342015%ABdeCcgDDES)vv17,gDDES TgDDES TYOY *+,-./.0145#6789 vv18,ww 2014 1 HI0!Np#20142020 w$%&(:)*H+,-0HI.”/2012 0:);1“23”!45#$”67:;-WyQ890:;(3-0;.?100%z/2017 1 A-W“2B3”#$C?DEFG;1Qy,HMIxJDn:)Kf-LMz/2018 1 NO%P QcRSTUMVWX YZ$t;CPQbc”_na b|c 2019 1d-efy!ghSi pRSjklmnopY#
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30、.83 m2 OBC 14$Tg 142-1r 2 _ _/WfWfZZ/WfWf/uum3/;P;P/uum2/”sv/“/V/!)#$%/”f”f//”/!#,$/$/(uv/&*/”/(#(&/&/”/#&/SY/)#($/$/-nc/rbc/Aw/&%/BB/&+#&!/”/&*/$/uv.N ”/&!#/”/)#&+/SY/)#(/$/Aw/&%/PQPQ/&$/”/+$/$/Aw/&%/PQPQ/&$/”/#&$/N/Aw/&%/N0N0/&!#/*#*/#(/$v/pBc/P/Aw/&%/PP/&!/(#*&/,uv/&)#/”
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36、bdefghijk ()*+!#$%&()16 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 OdK:Y/Oi?3.3 c_stiWXVY?-CAjk?-stc_stiWXVY?-CAjk?-st 22H2lmstiWOTVYOlmstiWOTVYOd%_efJsZjdfbgWD”45lmstiWsCrZ04H_cNy_ab22H2NstiWO+DdefhijslmVYO vv28,HXNstHXNst *+,-Choice145#6789 lmESXgstlmESXgst2020%5&-1r$MDqp/%X$.DDp/%q!s#KJK 21.8 ESX 0.15 g2022%12&$z
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39、0-././0/0./*/*./*+&$0/*/0.*/0&*/0,*/0$*/0)*/*/*/*0*10-(y9!zt=|BCD232 ()*+!#$%&()17 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 3.4 YlMqrmnno1Yop?qnorsYlMqrmnno1Yop?qnors M|no02O5KJ5lm,sCZlmM|no0aRno1Y#KcnKOPno52Zno52Z YlMqrmnlmno1YJo0opYlMqrmnlmno1YJo0op1no1no1YJo0,YJo0,2020%8&lmuYQ1YTGU”AYlMdno!”+lmR 30%2021%1&lmYlM
40、no1YJo 13.38 90 DEX 1.46 g2021%9&lm7YlMJo 16 28 DE2no1no1Y0a#,Y0a#,DlmYlM a-jTgsnilmeM5 IT#KTAB”It2KXB-”#Ki?-lmstXPQgh2 YlMnoqri52ZZolmst?-oYlMnoqri52ZZolmst?-opmnlm%no?qrspmnlm%no?qrs%no0M|p/lmN p/dm!”no25lm,Z vv29,lmJoYllmJoYlMRyMRy *+,-./.0145#6789 ()*+!#$%&()18 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 4()XYZ()
41、XYZ 4.1 ytyt?A,eAE+42.61 47.57 56.04 135.46 180.57 YOY 11.6%17.8%141.7%33.3%deAE+13.31 16.35 19.62 45.13 57.76 deAE+4 68.8%65.6%65.0%66.7%68.0%ijE+29.97 66.27 79.52 103.38 124.05 YOY 121.1%20.0%30.0%20.0%ijE+12.40 13.33 14.67 16.13 17.75 ij+4 58.6%79.9%81.6%84.4%85.7%9$9$848.32 1,087.96 1,066.74 1,5
42、56.12 1,888.35 YOY 28.2%-2.0%45.9%21.3%9$9$302.60 377.62 399.62 536.19 635.93 4545 545.72 710.34 667.12 1,019.93 1,252.42 ()*+!#$%&()19 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 44 64.3%65.3%62.5%65.5%66.3%*+,-./.0145#6789 4.2;5;5 2 Llm2023%2 lm PE 20.0_abcDelmOstlmCst!KsthiuvnaP#$no+%()st*+lm,|yzlm 2022/23/24%-.
43、/05 2.3T4.0T5.1 1.lm 22%PE 2 34XwG 23%y34 2023%30 PE5/0*26.61.678934$:K%;YG&D!Y“5aT5”OCABde5lmdKrZ 2 DGno=!lmlnodmrdK”no0”lm%t5qnoOPDGI%tulmDIi|5lm,rZ ()*+!#$%&()20 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 图表图表32:财务预测摘要:财务预测摘要 Table_Excel2 KK 利润表利润表 :2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 单位单位:百万元百万元 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 666
44、640 860 1,169 UfUf 1,088 1,067 1,556 1,888+111 100 133 156 U378 400 536 636 x4 4 6 7 “”10 11 15 17 3 3 4 5 w31 30 43 52 TK0 0 0 0 Cw112 125 180 219 K184 181 264 320 7w15 10 14 17 KT969 928 1,266 1,656 w145 164 181 203 Re465 465 465 465 wz-7 0-3-4 K3,418 3,967 4,659 5,382 Kz0 0 0 0-635 820 823 803 .z
45、3 2 3 3 K877 906 936 925 e3 2 2 2 300 300 300 300 8 8 8 8 K224 234 246 257 UU 405 340 596 753 KT5,918 6,692 7,428 8,131 Uf1 2 2 2 KTKT 6,887 7,620 8,694 9,787 U1 1 1 1 133 840 1,734 2,576 405 341 597 754+132 237 296 312 9103 87 152 192 x0 3 3 2 302 254 445 562 T10 5 10 15 *R30 25 44 56 85 85 85 85 .
46、/./272 229 401 506 396 399 411 419 MV0.60 0.51 0.89 1.12 T756 1,570 2,538 3,409 2,548 2,343 2,138 1,933 主要财务比率主要财务比率 6555 555 555 555 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 148 148 148 148 LL T3,251 3,046 2,841 2,636 UfJ28.2%-2.0%45.9%21.3%TT 4,007 4,616 5,379 6,045 J31.4%-8.4%54.3%22.9%./9_2,355 2,454 2,721 3,093
47、 J19.5%-15.9%75.1%26.3%*R525 550 594 650 LL 9_T9_T 2,880 3,004 3,315 3,743 65.3%62.5%65.5%66.3%RR 6,887 7,620 8,694 9,787 27.8%23.8%28.6%29.8%9.5%7.6%12.1%13.5%现金流量表现金流量表 9.7%8.0%10.6%11.4%单位单位:百万元百万元 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E LL UU 779 871 951 1,134 K58.2%60.6%61.9%61.8%707 750 1,001 1,192 1.3 0.6 0.
48、5 0.5 1 0-1-1 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 U1 11-35-24 UgLUgL U-13 108 58 15 K0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 82 2-72-49 *37 35 27 27 ee-703-1,102-1,105-1,125 *3 3 3 3-613-1,095-1,099-1,119 REMVREMV Re-465 0 0 0 R0.60 0.51 0.89 1.12 K375-7-6-6 RU1.72 1.93 2.10 2.51 -13 205 374 300 RK5.21 5.43 6.02 6.84 J”28 502 689 637 zz R-287
49、-326-346-368 36 42 24 19 R261 0 0 0 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.1-15 29 31 31 *+,-./0q45#6789 ()*+!#$%&()21 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 567#567#oC$3“$”S;3$XMTL/0c/0 o39Lcosss/0C3-Lo-3qc$#$#KL“KL”DC3$+”c/0WKL3TUcKLso/0iSTUcKLso/0C3=3c/03KLS3KhK3 Bi&KLBi9ohsc/0C3MBKL&/03t3cszKL&/0TMBsZ3/0cKLs/0 xBx/0 xs&3?”3x-c/0T3-3
50、MBs3(-(sM&?-Nvo3cKL3$XMTL/0Ws/0C3=3-c?c/0;“KL”cKL/0Zc/0C33!KLcyKL#$/03;s%Yr3&M()*-(r-+,;&rijo-.KL3ijYcy3DTKLsDTc%#%#”/03KLBiKL312t/0CB3KL&?33?tS45KL6VW-7VW8?M:+9:h;E+c*/0S-ij3=ZI!”;#!”;?AA AB7AB7 KLA 6 nCn_DEFqGH 20%6 nCn_DEFqGHI 10%20%C 6 nCn_DEFqGHI-10%10%JK 6 nCn_DEFqGHI-20%-10%6 nCn_DEFqGH-20%?$A LD 6 nC?$J/DEFq 5%MD 6 nC?$J/IDEFq-5%5%ND 6 nC?$J/DEFq-5%g”OAS/0&3 612 nCKL_(-?$qDzFq3DEKciCA _DEPQ 300 qSFRDESqSFl_DET 500 q-UVAqSFB73WDc lolo 99 PP KLXOPDYhxY7 1436 ZkC MT _ 20 abO200120 aO