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1、Play to earn:the emergence of new valueKearney Web3 business review:blockchain gamePhoto by Tung Li-WeiKearney,SydneyBlockchain games are characterized by the fact that certain items can be digitized(in other words,converted to non-fungible tokens(NFTs)so that they can(1)be freely transferred or sol
2、d inside and outside the game,(2)be interoperable among diff erent games,(3)survive after the service ends,and(4)be earned and redeemed by playing games(play to earn).Various blockchain games have followed in the footsteps of“CryptoKitties”and have created quite a buzz within the crypto asset commun
3、ity.A prime example is“Axie Infinity.”Developed in 2018 by the Vietnamese firm Sky Mavis,this is a play to earn game in which the player initially purchases three characters to train or use in battle and earn crypto assets by completing daily quests.At its peak,the game allowed players to earn sever
4、al hundred dollars a month;a segment of the population in Southeast Asia and other emerging countries began to play the game as a way to make ends meet.“Axie Infinity”was an essential evolutionary step in block-chain gaming,leading to the emergence of busi-nesses that would rent out the initial thre
5、e characters(for about$700),as the purchase price was diff icult for new gamers without the resources to invest and earn a commission.However,the market has grown since the introduc-tion of blockchain games five years ago,and its nature is gradually changing.This paper predicts changes in the blockc
6、hain game market over the next three years,based on the current market size and its background.Beginning of blockchain games(BCG)In“CryptoKitties,”players can purchase multiple cats and pair them to breed and produce kittens.This genetic mating produces a new cat with new genes,which can either be s
7、old for a profit or mated and bred again to produce more kittens.While at first glance the game looks like a typical pet caring game,it is diff erentiated from others in that it incorporates the new value of“play to earn.”In other words,players can“earn”money in the real world by working within the
8、game.In fact,rare cats are traded at high prices,with some cats fetching more than$700k.As of October 2022,the total value of transactions in the game had exceeded approximately$94 million.The market has grown since the introduction of blockchain games five years ago,and its nature is gradually chan
9、ging.1Play to earn:the emergence of new value1 Market size is calculated by adding up revenues from transaction fees,in-game billing,and in-game advertising within BCGs.Overall gamemarket playingpopulation1300,000Overallgame market1340,000BCG playingpopulation 20223,5001%Emerging nations1,700(49%)Eu
10、rope/America800(23%)East Asia1,000(29%)2%Figure 1The size of the BCG global market is estimated to be about$4 billion,with a playing population of about 35 million people as of September 2022Headcount(Unit:ten thousands,figures in parentheses are global share)Market amount(Unit:billion yen,figures i
11、n parentheses are global market share)BCG marketsize 20226,000Emerging nations1,000(17%)Europe/America2,200(27%)East Asia2,800(47%)1 Figures for the overall game market as of 2022Note:percentages may not resolve due to rounding.Source:Kearney analysisOne reason for this is the emergence of a segment
12、 of the population that earns a living through play to earn,as mentioned above.In BCG,the inflow of funds from outside the gaming economy(such as invest-ments by crypto asset investors and advertising revenue)into the in-game economic sphere is one of the crucial conditions for establishing the econ
13、omic sphere.The influx of capital from developed coun-tries,where crypto asset trading and NFT projects have thrived,provides a high return in terms of the monetary value level of the emerging economies,thus attracting more play to earn players from the emerging economies and creating a growth cycle
14、.The current BCG market is expanding,especially in emerging countriesKearney estimates the size of the BCG global market as of September 2022 to be approximately$4 billion,with a playing population of approximately 35 million people(see figure 1).1 This represents only 1 to 2 percent of the total ga
15、ming market,however,and while the BCG market is gradually expanding,its influence is still limited.Current growth of the BCG market is being driven by emerging countries,mainly in Southeast Asia and South America,which is believed to account for about half of the playing population(see figure 2).As
16、Sky Mavis(the developer of“Axie Infinity”)is a Vietnamese company,it is easy to see that BCG is one of the trends in the gaming industry in Southeast Asia and other emerging countries.2Play to earn:the emergence of new valueBCG playingpopulation 20223,500Emerging nations1,700(49%)Europe/America800(2
17、3%)East Asia1,000(29%)70025050430908065605070205040403020Figure 2Current growth of the BCG market is being driven by emerging countriesBy areaBy country(for major countries for which information can be obtained,unit:10,000 persons)ChinaKoreaJapanUSAGermanyUKFranceSpainCanadaSwi
18、tzerlandIrelandSwedenPhilippinesVietnamIndiaMexicoMalaysiaBrazilArgentinaColombiaVenezuelaHong KongPeruChileSingaporeEast AsiaEurope/AmericaEmerging nationsNote:percentages may not resolve due to rounding.Sources:Finders NFT Gaming Adoption Report,Statista,Newzoo,DappRader,Xangle,meltwater;Kearney a
19、nalysisFurthermore,Europe and the United States show still diff erent trends from those of the emerging econo-mies and East Asia.In Europe and the US,there are many investors in crypto assets and NFTs due to the presence of NFT operators such as Yuga Labs,which operates the Board Ape Yacht Club(BAYC
20、),one of the most prominent Web3 projects,and RTFKT,which sells NFTs of digital sneakers.In addition,the monetary value that those living in developed countries can earn by playing BCG is relatively small compared to the potential for players in emerging economies,making it a speculative market cent
21、ered on crypto asset investors who consider BCGs as an extension of NFT projects.Another factor is the lack of financial access in emerging economies;it is estimated that 70 percent of Southeast Asians do not have bank accounts.But while financial access is less widespread than in developed countrie
22、s,the Internet environment is well developed.Smartphone penetration is more than 50 percent in many countries,thereby creating a fertile ground for fintech acceptance.For users in emerging countries,having a wallet for crypto asset transac-tions,including BCGs,is synonymous with having a payment and
23、 remittance system.Further,the psycho-logical hurdle for crypto wallets is low,which is thought to be driving the expansion of the user base.The situation is diff erent in East Asia(Japan,China,and South Korea),which has the second-largest playing population after emerging economies.In South Korea,i
24、n particular,BCGs such as“Mir4”(which fuses the multiplayer online role-playing game(MMO RPG)genre massively popular in the country with crypto)have emerged and are gaining popularity.These BCGs are characterized by their attraction as a“spice”to enhance the fun of the game rather than the play to e
25、arn element in emerging economies,and are gaining popularity among people who enjoy gaming(similar to games such as poker and mahjong,where the act of betting enhances the fun of the game by increasing the sense of risk management).3Play to earn:the emergence of new valueIn East Asia,the trend to ad
26、d BCG elements to the MMO RPG genre,which is particularly popular in South Korea,is accelerating,and the very popular MMO RPG“Maple Story”(which dominated in the past)is scheduled for a BCG update.In addition,mobile games utilizing anime and manga intellec-tual property(IP)are gaining popularity in
27、East Asia,and BCG is an excellent match for these digital assets.For these reasons,a higher growth rate is expected in East Asia over the next three years than in other regions.In Europe and the United States,popular titles(particularly FPS games)are accelerating develop-ment that incorporates BCG e
28、lements,and the game-enjoying segment is being captured.In addition,the appearance of BCGs based on sports betting and online casinos(which are also compati-ble with BCG technology)is expected to lead to significant growth in the US and Europe,where gambling is tolerated and popular.Thus,a high grow
29、th rate can be expected.By 2025,the global BCG playing population and market size will grow to more than five times its current sizeSince it first appeared in 2017,the BCG market has grown based on small game developers developing products with limited investment.As the potential of the market gradu
30、ally became more apparent,existing major players began preparing to enter the market;major developers such as Ubisoft(famous for its Assassin Creed series)and Square Enix(best known for its Final Fantasy series)are already working on the market.Similar to the emergence and expansion of mobile games
31、in the past,the BCG market is entering a new stage in terms of invest-ment scale and playability.As the BCG market moves into this new stage,it is estimated that by 2025 the market size will reach approximately$21 billion and the number of players will grow to 240 million,more than five times the cu
32、rrent size(see figure 3 on page 5).The driver of this growth will be the entry of existing game developers and their development of BCGs that are attractive to the average gamer,such as through high game quality and revivals of popular games from the past.This will lead to the expansion of BCG users
33、 through play to earn and entertainment value as a game.In many countries,BCGs have already been developed in line with user preferences.In emerging countries,the main players will remain those who seek to earn a living due to their economic situation,but with popular first-person shooter(FPS)and ba
34、ttle royale games expected to be developed and launched by the end of 2022,it is expected that the game-enjoying segment of players will also enter the market.Furthermore,among some of the earn-a-living segments,there will be players who are successful in terms of investment and can contribute to th
35、e gaming economic sphere as investors,which is expected to help expand the market.It is estimated that by 2025 the market size will reach approximately$21 billion,and the number of players will grow to 240 million.4Play to earn:the emergence of new valueHeadcount(Unit:ten thousands,figures in parent
36、heses are global share)BCG playingpopulation 202524,0008%Emerging nations9,500(40%)Europe/America6,000(25%)East Asia8,500(35%)Emerging nations1,700(49%)Europe/America800(23%)East Asia1,000(29%)BCG playingpopulation20223,5007 timesMarket amount(Unit:billion yen,figures in parentheses are global marke
37、t share)BCG marketsize 202531,0009%Emerging nations7,700(25%)Europe/America10,300(33%)East Asia13,000(42%)Emerging nations1,000(17%)Europe/America2,200(37%)East Asia2,800(47%)BCG marketsize 20226,0005 timesFigure 3By 2025 the BCG market is estimated to be about$21 billion,and the number of players w
38、ill grow to 240 million,more than five times the current sizeOverall gamemarket playingpopulation1300,000Overallgame market1340,0001 Figures for the overall game market as of 2022Note:percentages may not resolve due to rounding.Source:Kearney analysis5Play to earn:the emergence of new valueGame deve
39、lopersStrategy updates premised on BCGs growthIn the past,many console game developers lost market share in the gaming market due to a lack of understanding of changing consumer needs and investment in mobile games.Even after the threat became apparent,there were operators that ended up with sporadi
40、c projects and consequently failed to capture the mobile game market.In order to not miss out on the new BCG wave that will arrive in the near future,it is necessary to decide what to off er,to whom,and how to off er it from short-,medium-,and long-term perspectives.Ensuring capability for realizati
41、on(human resource development,partnerships)In addition to conventional game development,BCG development requires new know-how,such as an understanding of blockchain technology and finan-cial knowledge to control the in-game economy.In addition to external recruitment and internal training of staff e
42、quipped with such know-how,alliances,partnerships,and JVs with BCG developers will need to be considered with a sense of urgency.It is necessary to clarify the alliance strategy of with whom,how,and what to off er in such partnerships.Staying abreast of the latest(legal and tax accounting)regulatory
43、 trendsRegarding BCG and related crypto assets and NFTs,the current state of legal development and legal interpretation is not settled globally;regulatory authorities in various countries are regularly announcing the tightening or easing of regulations.Therefore,it is necessary to keep an eye on reg
44、ula-tory information,such as in which countries BCG operating entities will be established and whether negotiations with the regulatory authorities might be required,and to update the implementation system based on this information.What is required of companies as BCG enters a new stage?As discussed
45、 in this paper,BCG technology is updating games from the perspective of earning money and enhancing the fun,and we believe that this market will continue to grow irreversibly.The gaming industry will undergo a major dynamism similar to the past transition from console games to mobile games.Each stak
46、eholder,therefore,needs to rethink its agenda to respond to this change.6Play to earn:the emergence of new valuePayment service providersAssessing the impact on the business through BCGBCGs,along with the penetration of crypto wallets,could have a significant impact on end-user transac-tions,includi
47、ng e-commerce as well as crypto asset management.In particular,telecommunications and financial players who focus on monetization in retail finance will need to fully consider the possibility that the customer base they have built up to date could be threatened by the rise of new players starting wi
48、th BCG.In particular,point programs,which are closely related to payment/commerce,should be prepared for the possibility of major changes in the business environment due to Web3.On the other hand,it can also be said that the creation of new assets and transactions through the NFT-ing of game items h
49、as allowed the gaming industry,which was previously seen as relatively marginal,to emerge as a market that can be reached directly/indirectly.Companies can also take advan-tage of new business opportunities by applying the financial expertise that has been cultivated to date,including the high level
50、 of security required in global transactions such as AML/CFT.Demonstrate leadership without getting too caught up in cannibalization of the companys existing businesses One of the characteristics of the Web3 trends,including BCG,is the strength of its network eff ect.Once recognized as a successful
51、project/game,it quickly attracts capital and human resources from around the world,and the rate of user growth increases multiplicatively.Yet the formula and pattern of success are very vague;in many cases,the larger the organization,the more likely it is that the project will remain a small initiat
52、ive due to the internal cost of explanation and the impact on existing business.On the other hand,some players have demonstrated leadership,including among top management,to quickly form alliances with promising Web3 service providers and projects,use their knowledge,and begin making upfront investm
53、ents to become the next generations infrastructure.IP holders(including some game developers)Clarification of BCGs position in IP strategyAs previously mentioned,it is expected that a number of BCGs will appear in the future for IP licensing with the intention of acquiring initial users,as the compe
54、tition to acquire users intensifies with growth of the market.Several IP-licensed BCGs,including TopShot(licensed by the National Basketball Association(NBA),are already in the market,and this trend is expected to accelerate further in the future.In this context,IP holders need to define how to enga
55、ge BCGs in their IP strategy,based on what value they bring to IP(monetizer or IP diff user),whether they will be produced in-house or externally to realize added value,and if externally,to whom the task will be entrusted.Measures to protect IP from social media roastingIn 2021,Ubisofts announcement
56、 that it would sell items of its games as NFTs caused a controversy.Other IP that has aroused criticism in the NFT area includes SEGAs Sonic NFT project and Korean idol Aespas NFT project.Specifically,concerns about the environmental destruction caused by the high power consumption of the blockchain
57、 and the tendency of IP fans to avoid NFTs because of their speculative and money-making nature are among the causes of those criticisms.The combination of IP,NFTs,and BCGs is prone to cause further flare-ups;hence it is necessary to consider measures to hedge against the risk.As a reference,Starbuc
58、ks NFT project for its members has not been flamed because of its environmentally friendly use of blockchain and its successful program to engage core fans.Learning from case studies such as this is useful.7Play to earn:the emergence of new valueSpeedily promote business by using capitalAlthough the
59、 Web3 industry is already attracting a large amount of funding from foreign VC firms and other sources,many of the businesses are small start-ups.This is also the case for BCG.However,as in the case of social games,the quality required of services is increasing as the market emerges.Businesses with
60、little capital are already entering a phase wherein competition is diff icult.In addition,the recent decline in crypto asset prices has lowered valuations,leaving many start-ups struggling to raise funds.Telecom and financial service providers who are generating suff icient cash flow from their exis
61、ting businesses should buy time and talent by making the most of their own capital.Specifically,they should acquire promising human resources and make them the cornerstone of the business through speedy eff orts,including making large-scale investments and acquisitions.Luxury brandsRedefining the br
62、and experienceLuxury brands have successfully monetized their rarity,their stories,and their luxury experiences,including their stores.New experiences,including BCGs,off er new opportunities to realize the moment when digital value exceeds the real value even if only temporarily.In particular,due to
63、 the high frequency of playing,BCGs have the potential to increase loyalty to the characters and provide worldview in a short period of time.Furthermore,it is not uncommon for the asset value of NFT game items to be traded for hundreds or even thousands of dollars from the time of sale,rather than f
64、or just a few dollars.Those brands will be asked how to reproduce the experience value that has been realized in the real world in the digital world,including BCG,and sublimate it to a higher level.In doing so,they should not simply convert physical products into digital ones,but must implement esse
65、ntial initiatives to realize the value proposition of the brand.Many of these initiatives are likely to be made by updating existing programs rather than launching completely new ventures.Brand portfolio expansionMany brands have achieved medium-to long-term business growth through a well-balanced c
66、ombina-tion of multiple brands,taking into account the life cycles and targets of the brands.However,in the Web3 era,as represented by BCG,IP with solid brand power will be created and grow in new areas(such as entertainment and games)and in new regions(such as emerging countries).While these IP ass
67、ets are stateless,their high level of composability allows for a wide range of collaborations,and they have the potential to grow together with existing brands by skillfully combining them.In addition to updating existing brands to Web3 specifications,companies should constantly search for new Web3
68、brands that can grow their own brands more eff ectively and,as Nike did with its acquisition of RTFKT,sometimes use M&A to strengthen their broad brand portfolio.8Play to earn:the emergence of new valueConcluding remarksAs discussed in this paper,the future of BCG,which has so far been limited to a
69、few users,is just around the corner as the market grows and expands into the general gaming user base while incorporating gaming and IP.To keep up with this trend,game developers and IP holders need to formulate their game business strategies based on BCGs existence as early as possible.Moreover,it
70、must be acknowledged that BCG is not limited to simple games but is expected to expand into the realm of payment services and branding.In addition to the market for games themselves,BCG is anticipated to have significant economic and non-eco-nomic impact on peripheral areas.It is only natural that g
71、ame developers and IP holders are required to have business strategies that take these peripheral areas into consideration,but it is also time for payment service providers and high prestige brands to consider how they can engage and utilize BCG seriously.Takefumi HarigayaPartner,TYohei MatsuokaDire
72、ctor,TTaichi MoritaConsultant,Tokyotaichi.moritakearneyYuichi MukoyamaPartner,Tokyo Kento SuenamiConsultant,THikari NagasakiConsultant,TAuthors9Play to earn:the emergence of new valueFor more information,permission to reprint or translate this work,and all other correspondence,please email .A.T.Kear
73、ney Korea LLC is a separate and independent legal entity operating under the Kearney name in Korea.A.T.Kearney operates in India as A.T.Kearney Limited(Branch Off ice),a branch off ice of A.T.Kearney Limited,a company organized under the laws of England and Wales.2022,A.T.Kearney,Inc.All rights reserved.As a global consulting partnership in more than 40 countries,our people make us who we are.Were individuals who take as much joy from those we work with as the work itself.Driven to be the diff erence between a big idea and makingit happen,we help our clients break