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1、Lower Prices,Little ReliefCommodity Markets OutlookA World Bank ReportAPRIL 2023AprOctAPRIL 2023 Commodity Markets Outlook 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved
2、.This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not gua
3、rantee the accuracy,completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions,or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods,processes,or conclusions set forth.The boun
4、daries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be
5、 a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Co
6、mmons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:World Bank Group.2023.Commodity Markets Outlook:Lower Prices,Little Relief,April 2023.World Bank,Washingt
7、on,DC.License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.TranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Ba
8、nk shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the so
9、le responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned indiv
10、idual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to reuse a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reu
11、se and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworl
12、dbank.org.The cutoff date for the data used in this report was April 21,2023.iii Table of Contents Figures Acknowledgments.v Executive Summary.1 Commodity Market Developments and Outlook.7 Energy.9 Fertilizers.17 Agriculture.19 Metals and Minerals.26 Precious Metals.31 Special Focus Forecasting Indu
13、strial Commodity Prices.37 1 Commodity prices and outlook.2 2 Recent developments in oil markets.10 3 Oil production.11 4 Outlook for oil markets.12 5 Natural gas markets.14 6 Coal markets.16 7 Fertilizer market developments.18 8 Agricultural commodity market developments.20 9 Global supply conditio
14、ns for grains and edible oils.21 10 Long-term risks to food outlook.23 11 Food insecurity.24 12 Domestic food price inflation.24 13 Beverage commodity market developments.25 14 Agricultural raw materials market developments.25 15 Metals and minerals market developments.27 16 Critical minerals market
15、 developments.30 17 Precious metals.32 18 Summary of studies of crude oil price forecast performance.40 19 Summary of studies of metal price forecast performance.41 20 Forecast horizon by methodologies for oil and metal prices.43 Table 1 World Bank Commodities Price Forecast.5 v The Special Focus on
16、“Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices”was authored by Jeetendra Khadan and Franziska Ohnsorge.Authors of sections on market developments include Peter Nagle(oil),Paolo Agnolucci(natural gas,coal,fertilizers,and precious metals),John Baffes and Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen(agriculture),Jeetendra Khad
17、an(metals),and Hamza Zahid(critical minerals).Shane Streifel provided inputs and reviewed the report.Kaltrina Temaj coordi-nated data analysis and supported empirical analy-sis.Additional research assistance was provided by Lule Bahtiri and Muneeb Ahmad Naseem.Maria Hazel Macadangdang managed the da
18、tabase and forecast tables.Design and production of the report were handled by Adriana Maximiliano.Graeme Littler produced the accompanying website.Amat Adarov,Marie Albert,Francisco Arroyo Marioli,Carlos Arteta,John Paxton Dearborn,Betty Dow,Sergiy Kasyanenko,and Garima Vasishtha reviewed the repor
19、t.Kevin Clinton,Graeme Littler,James Rowe,and Christopher Towe edited the report.External affairs for the report were managed by Joseph Rebello and Nandita Roy,supported by Sandya Deviah,Jose Carlos Ferreyra,Kristen Milhollin,and Mariana Lozzi Teixeira.Staff of the Translation and Interpretation Ser
20、vices unit provided translations of dissemination materials.The World Banks Commodity Markets Outlook is published twice a year,in April and October.The report provides detailed market analysis for major commodity groups,including energy,agriculture,fertilizers,metals,and precious metals.Price forec
21、asts for 46 commodities are presented.Com-modity price data updates are published separately at the beginning of each month.The report and data can be accessed at:www.worldbank.org/commodities For inquiries and correspondence,email at:commoditiesworldbank.org Acknowledgments This World Bank Group Re
22、port is a product of the Prospects Group in the Development Economics Vice Presidency.The report was managed by Valerie Mercer Blackman under the general guidance of Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 1 Recent developments Commodity prices have d
23、eclined sharply over the past six months,after many posted record-high levels last year.The World Bank commodity price index declined by 32 percent from its historic peak in June 2022,the sharpest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic started.As a result,the price surges that followed the Russian Federat
24、ions invasion of Ukraine have largely been unwound due to a combination of slowing global economic activity,favorable winter weather,and the redirection of trade of key commodity exports from Russia and Ukraine.By March of this year,prices of wheat and natural gas have registered especially large dr
25、ops from their peaks in May and August last year,respectively.Nonetheless,prices of all major commodity groups and about four-fifths of individual commodities remain above their 2015-19 average levels(figures 1.A and 1.B).Fertilizer prices reached an all-time high in real terms in 2022,while the foo
26、d price index reached its second-highest level in real termsbehind the 1973-75 period of grain shortages.Energy prices were 20 percent lower in the first quarter of 2023 than in the final quarter of 2022.The Brent oil price is 35 percent below its recent record high in June 2022,despite experiencing
27、 volatility in March 2023.The discount on the benchmark price paid for Russian oil against the Brent price widened in December 2022 after the introduction of a price cap by the Group of Seven(G7)industrial countries.In Europe,milder-than-expected winter weather,a surge in imports of liquefied natura
28、l gas(LNG),and a concerted Global commodity prices fell 14 percent in the first quarter of 2023,and by the end of March,they were roughly 30 percent below their historic peak in June 2022.The surge in prices after Russias invasion of Ukraine has largely been unwound on a combination of slowing econo
29、mic activity,favorable winter weather,and a global reallocation of commodity trade flows.For the remainder of this year,commodity prices are forecast to remain broadly unchanged.However,prices are still expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels,which will continue to weigh on affordability and fo
30、od security.Upside risks to prices include possible disruptions in the supply of energy and metals(in part due to trade restrictions),intensifying geopolitical tensions,a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in Chinas industrial sector,and adverse weather events.Disappointing global growth is the majo
31、r downside risk.Executive Summary effort to increase energy efficiency and conser-vation helped bring down natural gas prices by about 80 percent from their August peak.Larger export volumes and a redirection of trade routes have enabled both natural gas and coal markets to adjust to disruptions tri
32、ggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine.Russia continues to redirect its mineral fuel exports from Europe to China,India,and other emerging markets and developing economies(EMDEs),as it has been doing since the start of the invasion(figure 1.C).The price of fertilizers,which use natural gas and coal a
33、s inputs,also declined sharply.Agricultural prices were broadly unchanged between the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023at 14 percent below their April 2022 peaks.Renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative continued to help grain exports from Ukraine reach global markets.The initiati
34、ve,better harvests in other major grain-producing countries,and lower energy prices,have helped reduce agricultural commodity prices from their early-2022 peaks.Grain prices fell 5 percent in the first quarter of 2023,while prices of most other food commodities rose slightly.In real terms,food price
35、s continue to remain above levels observed during the 2007-08 food crisis(figure 1.D).Elevated food prices contribute to higher food insecurity,with severe implications for poorer populations in many developing economies.Annual domestic food price inflation across 146 countries averaged 20 percent i
36、n February 2023,the highest level over the past two decades.Of those,nine out of ten low-and middle-income countries face food price inflation above 5 percent.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 2 The metals and minerals price index rose 10 percent in the first quarter of 2023 fro
37、m the final quarter of 2022.A short-lived price spike in January was fueled by expectations that the end of Chinas zero COVID-19 policy would push demand higher,as China accounts for roughly half of the global consumption of base metals.However,prices declined in March,largely because of weakening g
38、lobal demand.The precious metals index increased by 9 percent in 2023Q1,driven by a weakening dollar,safe haven buying following banking stress in the United States and Europe,and strong industrial demand for platinum and silver.Outlook After rising by 45 percent in 2022,commodity prices are expecte
39、d to fall by 21 percent this year and remain mostly stable in 2024.The expected decline in prices for 2023 as a whole represents the steepest decline since the pandemic.The decline in energy prices in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to fade and be followed by stable prices over the remainder o
40、f 2023 and a slight uptick in 2024,as markets are expected to tighten amid supply pressures.Non-energy commodity prices,in contrast,will decline by about 10 percent in 2023 and almost 3 percent in 2024 as global demand is proving to be weaker than initially expected in the October 2022 forecast(figu
41、re 1.E).Energy price forecasts have been downgraded sharply.The energy price index is expected to fall by 26 percent in 2023(much of that decline has already taken place)and remain broadly un-changed(up 0.1 percent)in 2024.Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average$84 per barrel in 2023.Weaker g
42、lobal demand has already caused them to drop 15 percent below the 2022 average,and they are projected to remain at that level through the end of 2024.Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen precipitously,with a 53 percent decline expected in 2023,but will remain almost three times as high as the av
43、erage levels seen in 2015-19.Europe still faces challenges to ensure adequate supply next winter,among them increased competition for LNG exports from Asia.FIGURE 1 Commodity prices and outlook Commodity prices have declined from their record levels in 2022 but remain well above their pre-pandemic(2
44、015-2019)average.Natural gas prices had historically large declines from their August 2022 peak and wheat prices had a similar decline from their May 2022 peak,both reflecting improved supply prospects and redirection of trade.Russia has been able to redirect its mineral fuel exports from Europe to
45、China,India,and other EMDEs since February 2022.Food and fertilizer prices are still near their record levels,and are expected to remain high in real terms,reducing affordability for lower-income households.Commodity prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged over the remainder of 2023 and into
46、 2024 amid improved supply prospects and weakening global demand.B.Commodity price drops from crises peaksA.Commodity price indexes Sources:Bruegel Research Service;EM-DAT(database);Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;World Bank.A.E.Commodity prices refers to the World Bank commo
47、dity price index,excluding precious metals.A.Natural gas index is the weighted average of U.S.natural gas,European natural gas,and JapanLNG prices.Crude oil refers to Brent benchmark and Coal refers to Australian benchmark.B.Natural gas and wheat showed the steepest declines from the recent 2022 pea
48、ks compared to 69other key commodities examined.Crisis peaks are denoted t=0.For natural gas,t=0 for Russia-Ukraine war=August 2022;Pre-pandemic=Nov 2019;2008-09=November 2008.For wheat:Russia-Ukraine conflict=May 2022;2009-10=May 2009.April 1996 wheat drop not shown.C.Monthly series.Area represents
49、 share in Russias total export of mineral fuels.Mineral fuels include coal,natural gas and petroleum for 34 countries.Last observation is January 2023.D.Pre-pandemic=2015-19 average;2008-09 food crisis=2008-09 average.1973-75=1973-75averages.2023 real price indexes assume annual change for U.S.CPI d
50、eflator of 4 percent.E.Dashed lines indicate forecasts.F.Natural disasters,defined as floods,droughts,or wildfires,as recorded in the EM-DAT database.LICs=low-income countries;MICs=middle-income countries.See figure 11.B for definitions.D.Real food and fertilizer pricesagainst record-high price epis
51、odesC.Destination of Russias mineralfuels exports F.Number of people with foodinsecurity,by income groupingE.Commodity price forecasts-100-80-60-40-200t=0t+2t+4t+6t+8t+10t+12t=0t+2t+4t+6t+8t+10t+12Natural gasWheatRussia-Ukraine warPre-pandemic-10Percent600202120222023f202120222
52、023fFoodFertilizersPre-pandemic2008-09 food crisis1973-75Index,2010=002220232024Commodity pricesEnergyAgricultureMetalsIndex,100=2020250CommoditypricesCrude oilNatural gasCoalAgricultureFertilizersBase metalsPrecious metals2023Q12015-19 averageIndex,100=20
53、53035Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23European UnionChinaU.S.Korea,Rep.JapanIndiaUS$,billionsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 3 Coal prices are forecast to fall 42 percent in 2023 and 23 percent in 2024.The anticipated inc
54、rease in demand from China is likely to be offset by weaker demand elsewhere,as utilities switch back to natural gas.Exports from major producers(particularly Australia,and Indonesia)are antici-pated to rise.Fertilizer prices are projected to fall by 37 percent in 2023 in tandem with expected declin
55、es in the prices of natural gas and coal,but in real terms remain near the high levels during the 2008-09 food crisis.Agricultural prices are projected to decline 7 percent in 2023 and ease further in 2024.Food prices are expected to fall by 8 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2024,assuming that grai
56、n and oilseed exports from the Black Sea region will remain stable.Nevertheless,real food prices in 2023 will remain at their second highest levels since 1975exceeded only by 2022(figure 1.D).More than 349 million people globally are projected to face food insecurity this yeardouble the number in 20
57、20because of high food and fertilizer prices,conflicts,and economic and climate shocks(WFP 2023).The prevalence of natural disasters is associated with a significant increase in the number of food insecure house-holds,particularly in low-income countries(figure 1.F).Prices for agricultural raw mater
58、ials,whichinclude cotton,timber,and rubber,will decline byabout 6 percent in 2023,reflecting sluggish globalindustrial demand growth,and rebound by 2percent in 2024 as Chinas demand picks up.Metals and minerals prices,which briefly in-creased in January 2023,are expected to fall by 8 percent in 2023
59、 relative to last year and a further 3 percent in 2024.Global demand in manufac-turing is expected to remain weak,and Chinas recovery is expected to be heavily services-oriented(World Bank 2023a).Strong supply growth is projected over the forecast horizon,supported by a recovery from production outa
60、ges and new mines coming on stream for key metals(copper,nickel,and zinc).Precious metals prices are expected to increase by 6 percent in 2023 as safe-haven demand rises amid elevated uncertainty with respect to future growth prospects,ongoing concerns about inflation,and financial stress in the fir
61、st quarter.Risks Risks to the forecast are tilted to the upside,primarily because many of the factors underlying the shocks to commodity markets in recent times still prevail:Weaker-than-expected oil supply.Supply coulddisappoint both in Russia,especially ifsanctions disrupt oil exports more thanant
62、icipated,and in other Organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries and 10affiliated member countries(OPEC+),wheresupply remains below targetwith manycountries at or near full capacity.Tightercredit conditions may impede the ability of oilor coal companies to increase supply else-where.Policies to ha
63、sten the energy transitionmay discourage fossil fuel production,whilealso increasing demand for metals,particularlycopper,nickel,and lithium.Fossil fuel energyproducers may prefer to use profits tostrengthen balance sheets and reward share-holders,rather than investing in expandingproduction.This wo
64、uld lead to higher pricesof carbon-intensive energy commodities,butalso metals and minerals.Direction of demand from China.The recoveryin China may be tilted toward commodity-intensive sectors,and not services(as forecast).This would lead to higher prices for energyand metals because of larger deman
65、d fromindustry.The real estate sector in China maybegin to strengthen sooner than assumed,raising import demand and prices for basemetals.This could result in upward pressureon prices of aluminum,copper,lithium,andnickel,which are anticipated to experience asurge in global demand over the medium ter
66、mbecause of their usage in the manufacturing ofelectric vehicle batteries.Intensification of geopolitical tensions.Globalsupplies of grain and energy(particularly coaland natural gas)could change course unexpec-tedly if geopolitical tensions intensify.In thecase of energy,European natural gas stocks
67、 arehigh but may not be sufficient to coverconsumption in the 2023-24 winter monthsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 4 (European Commission 2023).Disruptions in trade routesparticularly for grains around the Black Sea and Ukraineamid sanctions and counter-measures could raise gr
68、ain prices.Against the backdrop of already elevated food prices,this could deepen food insecurity in many EMDEs.Unfavorable weather conditions.The occur-rence of adverse weather events that affectcrops in major global food-producing regionscould result in an increase in food prices.Colder-than-usual
69、 winter weather or warmer-than-usual summer weather could raiseheating or cooling demand for energy in thenorthern hemisphere.Adverse weather eventscould be driven by natural disasters that arehappening more frequently as a result ofclimate change(IPCC 2023;World Bank2020a).In addition,if an El Nio
70、eventhappens,it could lead to higher temperaturesand heavy rainfall later in 2023(NOOA2023).The main downside risk is if prices of industrial commoditiesenergy and metals commoditiesretreat if global activity ends up weaker than expected(World Bank 2023b).Continued elevated inflationary pressures co
71、uld require an even more aggressive policy response from major central banks.Following the recent financial stress episode,credit conditions could tighten.If these types of risks occur,they would dampen demand for industrial commodities and lead to lower prices.Special Focus:Forecasting Industrial C
72、ommodity Prices The Special Focus(SF)of this edition assesses the performance of a wide range of approaches used to forecast prices of seven industrial commoditiesoil and six industrial metalsby reviewing 60 studies published in academic journals.The studies evaluate the performance of models based
73、on three criteria:(i)directional bias(whether forecast and actual prices move in the same direction);(ii)precision(measured as the root mean squared forecast error);and(iii)unbiased-ness(whether the forecasts systematically over-or under-predict prices).The SF reports four key results.First,futures
74、prices,which are widely used for price forecasts,often lead to large forecast errors.Second,multivariate time series models tend to outperform other model-based approaches.Third,early studies suggest that ma-chine learning techniques yield better forecasts than some traditional approaches.Finally,au
75、g-menting model-based forecasting approaches,by incorporating the dynamics of commodity prices over time and controlling for other economic factors,enhances forecast accuracy.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 5 Commodity Unit 2020 2021 2022 2023f 2024f 2023f 2024f 2023f 2024f Pr
76、ice indexes in nominal U.S.dollars(2010=100)World Bank Commodity Price Index 1 63.1 101.0 143.3 112.9 112.1-21.2-0.8-16.2-4.8 Energy 2 52.7 95.4 152.6 113.2 113.3-25.8 0.1-21.5-5.0 Non-Energy 84.1 112.5 124.4 112.5 109.5-9.6-2.7-1.2-3.5 Agriculture 87.1 108.3 122.7 113.9 111.6-7.2-2.0-3.8-5.9 Bevera
77、ges 80.4 93.5 106.3 101.0 97.6 -5.0-3.4-0.5-3.9 Food 93.1 121.8 143.7 132.4 128.7-7.9-2.8-2.3-5.4 Oils and Meals 89.8 127.1 145.2124.7 122.4-14.1-1.9-9.6-11.3 Grains 95.3 123.8 150.4 135.8 125.3-9.7-7.8-5.2-14.5 Other food 95.5 113.1 135.6 139.3 140.1 2.7 0.6 9.8 10.7 Raw Materials 75.8 82.9 80.3 75
78、.7 77.3 -5.7 2.2-9.0-8.1 Timber 86.4 90.4 80.1 80.7 82.0 0.8 1.6-5.7-5.6 Other raw materials 64.2 74.8 80.5 70.2 72.3 -12.8 2.9-12.5-10.6 Fertilizers 3 74.6 152.3 235.7 148.7 138.2-36.9-7.1 n/a n/a Metals and Minerals 4 79.1 116.4 115.0 105.3 101.8-8.4-3.4 8.8 4.9 Base Metals 5 80.2 117.7 122.4 111.
79、5 107.9-8.9-3.2 8.5 4.1 Precious Metals 6 133.5 140.2136.8 144.3 134.0 5.5-7.2 14.6 7.3 Price in nominal U.S.dollars Energy Coal,Australia$/mt 60.8 138.1 344.9 200.0 155.0-42.0-22.5-40.0-57.3 Crude oil,Brent$/bbl 42.3 70.4 99.8 84.0 86.0 -15.9 2.4-8.0 6.0 Natural gas,Europe$/mmbtu 3.2 16.1 40.3 19.0
80、 17.0 -52.9-10.5-13.0-11.0 Natural gas,U.S.$/mmbtu 2.0 3.9 6.4 2.7 3.7 -57.6 37.0-3.5-2.3 Liquefied natural gas,Japan$/mmbtu 8.3 10.8 18.4 18.0 16.0 -2.3-11.1 1.0 0.1 Non-Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa$/kg 2.37 2.43 2.39 2.70 2.55 12.8-5.6 0.40 0.21 Coffee,Arabica$/kg 3.32 4.51 5.63
81、4.80 4.60 -14.7-4.2-0.70-0.81 Coffee,Robusta$/kg 1.52 1.98 2.29 2.30 2.25 0.7-2.2 0.20 0.14 Tea,average$/kg 2.70 2.69 3.05 2.70 2.75 -11.5 1.9-0.10-0.07 Food Oils and Meals Coconut oil$/mt 1,010 1,636 1,635 1,100 1,300-32.7 18.2-570-372 Groundnut oil$/mt 1,698 2,075 2,203 2,000 2,050-9.2 2.5-100-41
82、Palm oil$/mt 752 1,131 1,276 980 1,020-23.2 4.1-70-34 Soybean meal$/mt 394 481 548 590 570 7.7-3.4 5031Soybean oil$/mt 838 1,385 1,667 1,120 1,105-32.8-1.3-430-432 Soybeans$/mt 407 583 675 590 540-12.6-8.5-60-101 Grains Barley$/mt 98 210 190.-9.5 35 18 Maize$/mt 165 260 319 270 240-15.3-11.1-20-47 R
83、ice,Thailand,5%$/mt 497 458 437 510 490 16.8-3.9 7554Wheat,U.S.,HRW$/mt 232 315 430 355 335-17.4-5.6-55-70 TABLE 1 World Bank Commodity Price Forecasts Differences in levels from October 2022 projections Percent change from previous year EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 6 Commo
84、dity Unit 2020 2021 2022 2023f 2024f 2023f 2024f 2023f 2024f Price in nominal U.S.dollars Non-Energy Commodities Raw Materials Timber Logs,Africa$/cum 399 414 369 380 390 3.0 2.6-10-5Logs,S.E.Asia$/cum 279 271 228 230 235 0.9 2.2-20-19 Sawnwood,S.E.Asia$/cum 700 750 675 680 689 0.8 1.4-45-46 Other R
85、aw Materials Cotton$/kg 1.59 2.23 2.86 2.20 2.25 -23.2 2.3-0.70-0.61 Rubber,TSR20$/kg 1.33 1.68 1.54 1.40 1.50 -9.3 7.1-0.50-0.44 Tobacco$/mt 4,336 4,155 4,270 4,100 4,120-4.0 0.5 0 4 Fertilizers DAP$/mt 312 601 772 580 570-24.9-1.7-170-80 Phosphate rock$/mt 76 123 266 260 240-2.3-7.7 6065Potassium
86、chloride 3$/mt 241 543 863 475 425-45.0-10.5 n/a n/a TSP$/mt 265 538 716 560 510-21.8-8.9-90-40 Urea,E.Europe$/mt 229 483 700 325 315-53.6-3.1-325-285 Metals and Minerals Aluminum$/mt 1,704 2,473 2,705 2,400 2,450 -11.3 2.1 0 16 Copper$/mt 6,174 9,317 8,822 8,500 8,000 -3.7-5.9 1200 639 Iron ore$/dm
87、t 108.9 161.7 121.3 115.0 110.0-5.2-4.3 15 12 Lead$/mt 1,825 2,200 2,151 2,100 2,000 -2.4-4.8 200 83 Nickel$/mt 13,787 18,465 25,834 22,000 20,000-14.8-9.1 1000-708 Tin$/mt 17,125 32,384 31,335 24,000 24,500-23.4 2.1 2000 2243 Zinc$/mt 2,266 3,003 3,481 2,800 2,700-19.6-3.6 0-71 Precious Metals Gold
88、$/toz 1,770 1,800 1,801 1,900 1,750 5.5-7.9 200 100 Silver$/toz 20.5 25.2 21.8 23.0 22.0 5.5-4.3 2.0 1.0 Platinum$/toz 883 1,091 962 1,000 1,050 4.0 5.0 0 0 Other Food Bananas,U.S.$/kg 1.22 1.21 1.49 1.60 1.65 7.5 3.1 0.20 0.26 Beef$/kg 4.67 5.39 5.78 5.25 5.40 -9.2 2.9-0.55-0.42 Chicken$/kg 1.63 2.
89、26 3.35 3.30 3.20-1.5-3.0 0.20 0.13 Oranges$/kg 0.60 0.65 0.92 1.20 1.14 30.5-5.0 0.35 0.29 Shrimp$/kg 12.67 13.70 13.51 12.00 12.50-11.2 4.2-2.00-1.80 Sugar,World$/kg 0.28 0.39 0.41 0.45 0.46 10.3 2.2 0.07 0.08 TABLE 1 World Bank Commodity Price Forecasts(continued)Source:World Bank.1.The World Ban
90、k commodity price index comprises all energy and non-energy commodities weighted by their share in 2002-04 export values.The index excludes precious metals.The energy indexs share in the overall index is 67 percent.2.Energy price index includes coal(Australia),crude oil(Brent),and natural gas(Europe
91、,Japan,U.S.).3.Forecast changes for potassium chloride and the fertilizer index are not reported because the benchmark for potassium chloride changed from f.o.b.Vancouver to CFR Brazil.4.Base metals plus iron ore.5.Includes aluminum,copper,lead,nickel,tin,and zinc.6.Precious metals are not part of t
92、he non-Energy index.f=forecast.Differences in levels from October 2022 projections Percent change from previous year Commodity Market Developments and Outlook DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 9 o il exported via the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline to China and other
93、countries in Asia averaged$72/bbl in January 2023(IEA 2023a).In addition,some countries were reported to have obtained sizable discounts on their imports of Russian oil,although spot price data for Urals has become less reliable(Technical Note 1).A key development in oil demand since the start of 20
94、23 has been Chinas reopening from stringent COVID-19-related restrictions.Markets initially anticipated that Chinas reopening would lead to rapid growth in demand for oil because the country is the worlds second-largest consumer(BP 2022).Chinas oil demand declined by 3 percent in 2022the first annua
95、l decline in more than three decades(figure 2.B).The fourth quarter was particularly steep for jet fuel(31 percent)and gasoline consumption(4 percent;figure 2.D).Since the start of this year,travel has been recovering,particularly air travel,with international passenger flights up 34 percent between
96、 February 2022 and February 2023(figure 2.C).The recovery in travel is expected to lead to a sharp rise in oil demand through 2023.Optimism associated with Chinas reopening has been tempered,however,by rising global interest rates.The Brent oil price dropped precipitously from$85/bbl to$74/bbl in th
97、e first half of March,during a bout of financial instability in the United States and Europe,before fully recovering after OPEC+announced production cuts.In the United States,the worlds largest consumer of oil,monetary policy rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have weighed on activity and oil demand.
98、In Europe,tightening monetary policy and Russias invasion of Ukraine have led to a slowdown in activity and a decline in oil demand.In 2022Q4,European oil demand was 0.7 million barrels per day(mb/d)below the previous yearwith notable drops for gasoil(essentially diesel)and naphtha,which are predomi
99、nantly used in industrial activity.On February 5,2023,the EU and G7 imposed a price cap on Russias oil product exports,to complement a similar cap on crude oil that became effective on December 5,2022.The crude oil cap is currently$60 per barrel,while the oil Energy During the first quarter of 2023,
100、energy prices continued their sharp decline from last years record highs,as global growth weakened and the global reshuffling of export markets for natural gas and coal settled.For 2023 as a whole,the energy price index is forecast to fall by 26 percent from 2022,mostly driven by a decline in natura
101、l gas prices,and remain broadly stable in 2024.Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average$84 per barrel(bbl)in 2023,down from$100/bbl in 2022,before a slight increase in 2024 as supplies tighten.A barrel represents 42 gallons of oil.European and U.S.natural gas prices are forecast to decline by
102、more than half between 2022 and 2023,while coal prices are forecast to decrease 42 percent in 2023;both European natural gas and coal prices will likely fall further in 2024.The main upside risk to the oil price forecast is lower-than-expected production.In the natural gas market,supply disruptions
103、related to the war in Ukraine,as well as rising demand for liquified natural gas(LNG)imports as Chinas economy rebounds,might drive up prices.On the downside,prices may be lower if disappointing global growth weakens de-mand for energy commodities.Crude Oil Recent developments The price of Brent cru
104、de oil averaged$81/bbl in 2023Q1,a decrease of 8 percent from the previous quarter(quarter on quarter;q/q);in March 2023,the price was down 35 percent from its peak in June 2022(figure 2.A).Daily prices fluctuated in the range of$72-87 per barrel during the quarterwith moves largely driven by news r
105、elating to Chinas reopening,the monetary policy stance in major advanced economies,and recent financial market stress.Prices rose at the beginning of April following a surprise announcement of a production cut by OPEC+.The spot price of Urals,the Russian benchmark,is estimated to have averaged$47/bb
106、l in early February(exclu-ding freight and insurance costs),below the G7 price cap of$60/bbl(IEA 2023a).There is significant variation in Russian export prices,however,depending on the port of exit and method and cost of transport.For example,crude DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|
107、APRIL 2023 10 States)have fallen sharply,increased sales elsewhere,particularly to EMDEs in Asia,have offset the lower exports to industrial countries(figure 3.B).To overcome the price cap restrictions,Russia is thought to have been assisted by a“shadow fleet”of oil tankers that operates outside usu
108、al maritime channels.This fleet is not insured or financed by countries in the price cap coalition,so in principle Russia could sell the oil and products at higher prices to third parties not participating in the agreement.The trade diversion has led to less efficient transport of oil,however,becaus
109、e journey times are longer,leading to a higher cost of transport,while the use of older vessels increases the risk of oil spills.The price Russia has been receiving for its oil exports is substantially lower than the price of Brent crude oil.As a result,Russias oil revenues have declineddown 48 perc
110、ent in January 2023 from January 2022and export revenues are down 36 percent(IEA 2023b).Since the EUs embargo on Russian oil products went into effect in February,Russia needs to redirect a larger amount of oil to other countries.The narrower transport channels that Russia is using means it may incr
111、easingly struggle to maintain its oil export volume.2 Russia announced it would reduce crude oil production by 0.5 mb/d from March to June 2023,possibly reflecting a need to reduce the level of refining amid difficulties in exporting oil products.Among the remainder of the OPEC+group of countries,pr
112、oduction rose by 3 mb/d in 2022 but remains below the announced production target(figure 3.C).Since the start of 2023,the shortfall between quota and actual production has averaged about 2 mb/d,with the largest shortfalls outside of Russia in Angola and Nigeria(0.4 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d,respectively).In
113、 April 2023,OPEC+announced a surprise production cut of 1.16 mb/d,to start in May and last until the end of 2023.Russia announced it would extend its 0.5 mb/d cut beyond June to the end of the year,bringing the total OPEC+cuts to nearly products cap is$100 per barrel(oil products such as diesel and
114、gasoline normally price above crude oil).1 The EU embargo and Maritime Services Ban on Russian oil products also went into effect on February 5,2023.The objective of the price caps on crude oil and oil products is to maintain flows of Russian oil,while also reducing the revenue Russia earns(U.S.Depa
115、rtment of the Treasury 2022).Russian oil production and exports have so far remained broadly unchanged from their levels prior to the war(figure 3.A).While Russias oil exports to the EU and other G7 members(such as Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United FIGURE 2 Recent developments in oil markets O
116、il prices fell in the first quarter of 2023 as financial market stress raised concerns about a deeper global slowdown and Russias exports held up better than expected.Air travel in China is starting to recover as tourism picks up,and it is expected to increase through the rest of this year,which wil
117、l boost jet fuel consumption.Urals oil trades at a significant discount to Brent prices.B.Oil demand A.Brent versus Urals oil price Sources:Bloomberg;International Energy Agency;Transportation Security Administration;World Bank.A.Monthly data.Last observation is March 2023.Price for Urals is from IE
118、As Oil Market Report.B.D.Annual and quarterly data for 2023 are IEA forecasts.C.Index showing rate of change in number of air travel passengers for China and United States.Last observation is March 2023 for the United States and February 2023 for China.D.China:Consumption of oil products C.Passenger
119、 air travel 2 Since the price cap was introduced,information on exports and prices of supplies originating from Russia have become more limited(see Technical Note 1).708519Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q3ChinaNon-OECD excl.ChinaOECDIndex,100=2019Q0012020
120、19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23ChinaUnited StatesIndex,100=2019 avg.4050607080900222023DieselGasolineJet fuelIndex,100=20100120140Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23UralsBrentPrice
121、cap US$60/bblUS$/bbl1 Shipping,and other companies are prohibited from financing,insuring,trading,brokering,or carrying cargoes of Russian crude and oil products unless they were bought at or below the set price caps.DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 11 1.7 mb/d.Productio
122、n in the Islamic Republic of Iran,which is in OPEC+but exempt from production targets,averaged 2.6 mb/d in 2023Q1,their highest level since 2019Q1,as exports rose,particularly to China(IEA 2023b).Among non-OPEC+countries,production was broadly flat in the first quarter of 2023.In the United States,p
123、roduction edged higher,although the rig count has declined slightly since the start of the year as prices have eased(figure 3.D).The number of drilled but uncompleted wells has also continued to fall steadily,which will constrain the ability of companies to ramp up future produc-tion.In addition,the
124、 shale industry faces significant constraints,with many operators citing sharp increases in the cost of labor and other key inputs(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2022).In addition,limited capacity of oil field services,especially fracking fleets,is constraining comple-tion of wells already drilled(I
125、EA 2023c).Outside of the United States,production has started to ramp up in Guyana after its first oilfields began drilling,with production reaching 0.4 mb/d in 2023Q1,up 0.3 mb/d from the previous year.Global oil inventories in January rose to their highest level since September 2021.Among OECD cou
126、ntries,commercial inventories surged in the first two months of 2023,however governments strategic stockpiles have yet to be replenished to 2021 levels after the substantial drawdowns in the initial phases of Russias invasion of Ukraine(World Bank 2022).Outlook The price of Brent crude oil is foreca
127、st to average$84/bbl in 2023,down from almost$100/bbl in 2022,and a downward revision from October 2022,mostly reflecting weaker growth prospects in advanced economies(figure 4.A).The econ-omic recovery in China will support demand growth in 2023-24.Supply will be slower to pick up due to OPEC+produ
128、ction quotas and limits on capacity in most other regions.Prices are expected to increase slightly 2024 and will remain higher than their 2015-19 monthly average of$57/bbl.Oil consumption is expected to rise by 2 percent in 2023 to a new all-time high of 101.9 mb/d,according to the International Ene
129、rgy Agencys April assessment,and in line with forecasts from the U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA)and from OPEC(IEA 2023a;EIA 2023a;OPEC 2003,figure 4.B).Parts of the global economy have already seen a marked deceleration,and tighter financial conditions could dampen ac-tivity further.The r
130、ecovery in China will account for more than half of the expected increase in global oil demand.The resurgence of travel-FIGURE 3 Oil production Russias oil production and exports have been resilient since April 2022,although they are expected to decline in the remainder of this year as a result of t
131、he EUs import ban.In the past year,Russia has increasingly diverted its oil exports to India and China,while reducing its supply to the EU,the United Kingdom,and the United States,which have shunned Russian oil.OPEC+member countries continue to produce below their target,although production has rise
132、n slightly in recent months.In the United States,production has continued to increase modestly,while the rig count has plateaued.B.Oil exports from Russia,by destination country/region A.Russia crude oil production and exports D.U.S.rig count and oil production C.Shortfall in OPEC+production from qu
133、ota Sources:Baker Hughes;International Energy Agency;JODI(database);U.S.Energy Information Administration;World Bank.A.Data on exports from 2016-2021 are from JODI database.Data for 2022 on crude oil exports are from IEAs Oil Market Report,April 2023 edition.Monthly production data for 2023 are IEA
134、forecasts.B.Exports for European Union include crude oil and oil products.Data from IEA Oil Market Report,April 2023 edition.Data for 2021 show year average.C.OPEC=Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.Data based on the IEA Oil Market Report March 2023.Target refers to the maximum produc
135、tion level allowed under the OPEC cartels agreement.D.Three-month rolling averages.Latest data as of April 6,2023.024682021Mar-23European UnionU.K.and U.S.OECD AsiaChinaIndiaOtherMb/d-4-3-2-10Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23AngolaRussian FederationNigeriaOther OPEC+Mb/d892
136、004006008001,00020020202120222023ThousandsRig countOil production(RHS)Rig countMb/d024681012Jan-19Jun-19Nov-19Apr-20Sep-20Feb-21Jul-21Dec-21May-22Oct-22Mar-23Aug-23ProductionExportsMb/dInvasion of Ukraine DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 12 which would allow a
137、 modest decrease compared to 2022.Russias production is expected to decline by between 0.4 mb/d and 0.8 mb/d in 2023(IEA 2023c;EIA 2023a;OPEC 2023).Risks The two prominent upside risks to the oil price forecast concern the speed and oil intensity of Chinas reopening,and weaker-than-expected oil prod
138、uction growth,particularly in the United States and among OPEC countries.The possibility of stronger-than-expected oil exports from Russia and disappointing global growth could lead to lower-than-expected oil prices.The effect of Chinas reopening on oil demand will depend on the strength and nature
139、of the recovery.China is assumed to grow just over 5 percent in 2023,with a recovery in domestic consumption,particularly for gasoline and jet fuel.The magnitude of the economic slowdown last year and subsequent rebound this year means the increase in oil demand will be substantial(figure 4.C).A rec
140、overy driven in China by more oil-intensive sectors could lead to much higher prices by the end of 2023.Production may be lower than assumed in the forecast.Investment by oil producers outside of OPEC+may disappoint,given perceived shifts in demand from the transition away from fossil fuels.Producti
141、on rates in existing mature fields are declining about 9 percent per year,and substantial new investment is needed just to maintain current levels of production(IEA 2022a;figure 4.D).In addition,U.S.shale production could be weaker than expected if companies continue to prioritize profitability over
142、 expansion of capacity.Costs have increased and further constraints in oil services and fracking fleets could restrict output.Such constraints could,over time,shift the balance of power in the oil market toward a more assertive OPEC+,led by the major Gulf producers.The OPEC+decision to restrict oil
143、supply in early April may signal that the group is prepared to support higher prices going forward.The outlook for production in Russia is particularly uncertain and will depend on the related sectors will result in a notable expansion of demand for gasoline and jet fuel(IEA 2023c).Other Asian count
144、ries account for most of the rest of anticipated global oil demand growth.Outside of Asia,oil demand growth is expected to moderate in 2023.This reflects sluggish industrial activity and the continuing transition to a low-carbon-emissions economy.The outlook for oil production assumes a smaller incr
145、ease of 1.2 percent in 2023,which will take production to an all-time high of 101 mb/d.The increase is largely accounted for by a further expansion of U.S.production of 1 mb/d,with smaller additions by Brazil(0.3 mb/d),Guyana(0.2 mb/d),Canada(0.1 mb/d),and Norway(0.1 mb/d).Supply of the OPEC+group o
146、f countries(excluding Russia)is assumed to remain near current levels,in line with the groups guidance,FIGURE 4 Outlook for oil markets Oil prices are forecast to decline in 2023 before a slight increase in 2024 due to the recovery of demand,particularly from China.One of the many risks to the forec
147、ast is the possibility of weaker-than-expected U.S.shale production.Well productivity has been declining.B.Changes in oil demand,supply,and inventory A.Oil price forecasts D.U.S.oil well productivity C.End use of oil(final consumption),by sector,2020 Sources:Bloomberg;Energy Information Administrati
148、on;International Energy Agency;World Bank.A.Data for 2023-24 are projections.B.IEA data and forecast(2023Q2-Q4).C.“Other final consumption”includes power generation.D.Oil production per new rig drilled.Latest observation is April 2023.-4-3-2-69821Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q
149、22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4Stock change(RHS)DemandSupplyMb/dMb/d0255075100United StatesChinaIndiaOther final consumptionIndustryResidential and commercialPercent 04008001,2001,600Jan-10Mar-12May-14Jul-16Sep-18Nov-20Jan-23Bbl/d4050607080900224World BankFuturesConsensus
150、EIAUS$/bbl DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 13 severity of the EU embargo,the impact of the G7 price cap,and on physical limitations Russia encounters in redirecting exports.Previous estimates of the impact of trade restrictions by the IEA(and other forecasters)have gene
151、rally been larger than actual outcomes;Russia has been able to export more oil than expected.It is possible that Russia could again offset the EUs import ban on Russian oil products by overcoming transport bottlenecks and ship its oil product exports to other countries.Finally,the possibility of pol
152、icy interest rates remaining higher for longer amid persistently elevated inflation could lead to weaker-than-expected global growth,which would weigh on oil demand.One potentially offsetting factor could be the refilling of strategic oil inventories.However,the United States,which made the largest
153、inventory drawdowns,has indicated that replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would take several years(IEA 2023c).Natural gas Recent developments European and the U.S.natural gas spot prices plunged more than 50 percent between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,extending their large losses in the final three
154、months of 2022.Despite the sharp decline,the European benchmark price in March 2023 was 133 percent above its 2015-19 average due to severed pipeline supplies from Russia.The fall in U.S.prices reflected in part an expansion of shale gas production:the U.S.gas price was in March 2023 16 percent belo
155、w its 2015-19 average.The Japan LNG import price(mainly set under long-term contracts linked to the price of oil)fell by just 9 percent in 2023Q1,and in March 2023 it remains at about twice its 2015-19 average.Spot LNG prices mirrored the spike and subsequent collapse in Europe LNG prices,and spot s
156、hipments represent an increasing share of Japanese LNG imports.The unusually wide price gaps that have emerged since 2021 among the three benchmarksEurope,the United States and Japanhave narrowed,partly due to a surge in LNG exports to European markets(figure 5.A).The European price benchmark,which
157、rose to record-highs in August 2022 due to efforts to replace Russian imports,declined by 80 percent by March 2023.This reflect the effects of mild winter weather,reduced demand,ample inventories,and additional sources of supply.The diversion of LNG shipments from Asia to Europe helped facilitate th
158、e convergence between the European benchmark and the Japanese LNG prices by January 2023.Global natural gas demand fell by about 2 percent in 2022only the fifth time an annual decline has occurred since 1965.Reductions were concentrated in Europe,driven by high prices(especially in industry and powe
159、r generation),mild winter weather(mainly affecting residential and commercial customers),and government policy inducements to conserve energy(such as the European Gas Demand Reduction Plan).European demand in 2022 was 8 percent lower than the 2015-19 average(figure 5.B).Demand from electrical power
160、generation held up,as natural gas filled shortfalls from hydropower and nuclear generation in southern Europe,despite coal being a much more price-competitive input in the power generation sector for most of 2022.However,this has recently changed,due to the plunge in the price of European natural ga
161、s and high price of European carbon allowances(which discourage coal use).Gas demand in Asia was stable in 2022,with dampening effects from high prices,mild weather,and the lingering impact of COVID-19.Natural gas consumption in North America last year is estimated to have increased by 5 percent,led
162、 by the residential and commercial sectors in the United States,industrial consumers in Canada,and power generation in both countries.Global supplies of natural gas were disrupted by the loss of Russian exports,but other suppliers helped fill the gap.Global production was stable last year(IEA 2023d)
163、.The Russian share of EU pipeline gas imports dropped to about 11 percent in 2022Q4 from 43 percent in 2021(figure 5.C).Pipeline capacity limited the extent to which Russia could divert exports to China and Trkiye.DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 14 largely filled the ga
164、p caused by lower imports from Russia(figure 5.D).As price differentials between Europe and the United States increased,Europe bought two thirds of U.S.LNG exports,about twice the share in 2021(figure 5.E).A key enabling factor for this shift in trade was reduced demand from China,the world largest
165、LNG importer in 2021.U.S.LNG exports to China decreased by 75 percent in 2022,mostly due to reduced economic activity and ample domestic energy supplies in China,notably coal.European natural gas inventories entered the 2022-23 winter heating season virtually full and have so far been ample,a strong
166、 turnaround from the first quarter of 2022 when the level of gas in storage was very low(figure 5.F).U.S.inventories at the end of March were also well above the five-year average because of higher production,lower-than-expected demand amid mild winter weather,and an outage at the Freeport,Texas,exp
167、ort terminal.The extraordinary redirection of LNG trade over the past several months had unintended adverse consequences for EMDEs.Higher LNG prices reduced import demand for natural gas in the power sector in Asia,Africa,and South America.When countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan could not sec
168、ure alternative power sources in mid-2022,widespread electricity blackouts ensued.Intermittent power supplies resulted in higher production costsbecause of the need to use back-up generators and from missed delivery deadlinesreducing the competitiveness of export industries.Outlook Natural gas price
169、s are forecast to be significantly lower in 2023.Following a record-high annual increase of 150 percent in 2022,the European benchmark price is expected to fall by 53 percent from its 2022 average on lower demand,above average inventories,and improved access to supply.The U.S.benchmark price will de
170、cline by 58 percent in 2023,mainly because of increased domestic production.In 2024,prices in Europe are expected to fall 11 percent from 2023,assuming Europe embarks on investments in LNG FIGURE 5 Natural gas markets Natural gas prices fell in the first quarter of 2023.Lower pipeline flows from Rus
171、sia to the EU were offset by higher LNG deliveries,especially from the United States.Storage operators were able to maintain inventories at a record level for this time of year due to a high level of supplies to Europe,combined with lower-than-expected consumption.B.European natural gas consumption
172、A.Natural gas prices D.Shares of EU natural gas imports,by country C.Russias share of EU gas pipeline imports Sources:Energy Information Administration;Eurostat;World Bank.Note:AEs=advanced economies;EAP=East Asia and Pacific;ECA=Europe and Central Asia;LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean;MNA=Middle
173、 East and North Africa;SAR=South Asia.LNG=liquified natural gas.A.C.Monthly data.Last observation is March 2023.B.E.Monthly data.Last observation is December 2022.D.Shares of EU natural gas imports.“Other countries”include gas exporters to Europe not identified in the chart,for example Qatar.F.Inclu
174、des 20 European Union countries and the United Kingdom.Last observation is April 15,2023.F.European natural gas inventories since 2017 E.Destination of U.S.LNG exports 5001,0001,5002,000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2015-19 rangePetajoules002018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12
175、020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3Russian FederationRussia-Ukraine conflictPercent020406080100Jan 21-Jan 22Feb 22-Jan 23Russia FederationUnited StatesAlgeriaNorwayAzerbaijanOther countriesPercent020406080European UnionAEs (non EU)LAC,EAP,and SARECA and MNAPercent01234JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSe
176、pOctNovDec2017-21 range202220232017-21 averageTrillion cubic feet020406080Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Natural gas,U.S.Natural gas,EuropeLiquefied natural gas,JapanUS$/mmbtuStimulated by high prices and LNG export demand,natural gas production in the United State
177、s reached a record high in 2022.Europe turned to alternative sources of gas.Increased pipeline imports from Norway and Azerbaijan,and by ship from the United States DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 15 importing facilities.Nevertheless,price levels are expected to remain
178、elevated over the forecast period because Europe still faces challenges in ensuring adequate supply next winter,including from Asian competition for LNG supplies.U.S.prices are expected to bounce back in 2024 as production growth slows and demand increases,including that for LNG exports.The Japan LN
179、G benchmark price is expected to decrease by 2 percent in 2023 and fall by 11 percent in 2024,although spot-price imports will play an increasing role as long-term contracts expire.The forecast assumes that global demand for natural gas in 2023 will increase marginally,with most of the additional co
180、nsumption occurring in China.Consumption in Europe and North America is expected to decrease,largely driven by lower use in the power sector as renewable sources capture a larger share of the energy market.Europe will continue to rely heavily on LNG imports despite current high storage levels to mee
181、t winter demand,because even inventories at full capacity provide no more than one-third of gas consumed in a typical winter(European Com-mission 2023).Global production is expected to be stable in 2023,with a contraction in Russian output effectively offset by increases in the United States and Chi
182、na.Significant new LNG export capacity is expected to come onstream by 2026.Risks Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced.Higher natural gas prices could materialize if Chinas industrial recovery proves stronger than expected,or if Russian exports decline further.Gas prices could be lower if produ
183、ction and LNG exporting capacity in the United States continues to expand,and if the use of coal in the European power sector persists.The economic recovery in Chinas industrial sector following reopening might be much stronger than the baseline assumes.The resulting higher demand for natural gas wo
184、uld trigger an increase in Chinese LNG imports,potentially leading to higher prices amid heightened global competition.This would be reinforced if Russia further reduced exports to Europe,which would require additional supply from other sources(LNG and piped gas).Meeting European demandincluding gas
185、 required to fill storage facilities in the summer monthswould be increasingly difficult under scenarios in which LNG or pipeline imports from Russia to the EU are blocked or significantly curtailed.A marked increase in gas prices would weigh on global industrial production and on household energy c
186、onsumption,particularly in Europe.On the other hand,gas prices could be lower than expected if supply surprises on the upside or in the event of greater-than-anticipated substitution with other energy sources,especially coal.A key downside risk to the price forecast relates to the level of U.S.produ
187、ction,which continues to rise despite falling prices.That is because the growth is mainly from gas produced during oil extraction(so-called associated gas),which is partly driven by high oil prices.With respect to drilling targeted for gas,current active rigs are almost equal to the maximum number o
188、f rigs since 2020.The ability of many countries to switch to coal as an input in electricity generation could act as a ceiling for gas price increases.The price forecasts for European natural gas and coal in 2024 imply similar generating costs in the power sector when using either fuel,assuming aver
189、age efficiency of power plants and the current price of EU Emission Trading Scheme(ETS)allowances.There is a risk of generators switching back to coal if coal prices fall more than expected and the natural gas market tightens,or if the price of carbon allowances in Europe markedly declines.The decre
190、ase in Russian gas production and changes in LNG trade patterns are likely to persist in the long term due to an increased focus on energy security,particularly in Europe(Tollefson 2022,World Economic Forum 2022).Europe is set to expand LNG import capacity by 40 billion cubic meters by the end of 20
191、23.Meanwhile investment in renewable sources has accelerated,which could result in a considerable,permanent reduction in gas demand.As an example,power generation from wind and solar in China increased 21 percent in 2022,to reach 14 percent of total electricity consumption,reducing global demand for
192、 natural gas.DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 16 weather left inventories higher than expected.On the supply side,Australian production and exports have recovered from disruptions during the severe tropical cyclone season in late 2022.Russias coal exports increased to Ch
193、ina,India,South Korea,and Trkiyeoffsetting reductions to the rest of Europe and Japan.Japanese utilities,seeking low-cost coal,are also switching to other sources as contracts with Russia expire.China has resumed imports from Australia,ending an informal ban imposed in late 2020.So far,imports have
194、been modest.Global coal consumption reached an all-time high in 2022.Coal demand rose 2 percent in 2022,with increases in all main consuming regions except the Unites States(figure 6.B).In Europe,coal consumption grew by an estimated 7 percent,as power generators sought alternatives to Russian natur
195、al gas.Coal also helped fill supply gaps arising from nuclear generation outages in France and hydropower reductions in southern Europe.Consumption in India in 2022 also rose by an estimated 7 percent to meet its increasing power needs,while in China,the moderate increase in consumption was mainly d
196、riven by the need to fill shortfalls from hydropower caused by record-breaking droughts.Finally,consumption in the United States shrank by 6 percent,as part of a long-term shift toward renewables in the power sector.Production is estimated to have risen globally in 2022 in response to higher prices(
197、IEA 2022b).China,which produces about half of the global coal supply,increased output in 2022 by an estimated 9 percent from 2021(figure 6.C).Production in India increased by an estimated 10 percent in 2022,in line with domestic consumption.Indonesia increased production by an estimated 8 percent an
198、d the United States by 3 percent.In contrast,production in Australia fell due to mining disruptions by heavy rains induced by La Nia,the sea surface temperature phenomenon that affects global weather.Output declined in South Africa due to labor unrest and railway disruptions.Estimates for Russia als
199、o point to lower production due to infrastructural bottle-necks amid higher consumption.Coal Recent developments Coal prices fell in 2023Q1(q/q),extending declines that began in the previous quarter.Australian coal prices fell by 36 percent(q/q)in the first quarter of 2023,following a 10 percent dro
200、p in 2022Q4(figure 6.A).In March 2023,Australian coal prices are about half what they were at their peak after Russias invasion of Ukrainealthough they remain well above their 2015-19 average.Several constraints that led to sharply higher prices in 2022 have continued to unwind.The fall in natural g
201、as prices and high prices for the EU ETS allowances has meant that coal has lost its cost advantage in European power plants.Demand is down because mild winter FIGURE 6 Coal markets Coal prices fell in the first quarter of 2023 as additional production was about three times the level of additional c
202、onsumption.The supply gap triggered by the European ban on coal imports from Russia was filled by Colombia,Indonesia,South Africa,and Kazakhstan.B.Change in global thermal coal consumption,2021-22 A.Coal prices D.Share of EU coal imports,by country C.Change in global thermal coal production,2021-22
203、Sources:Eurostat;International Energy Association;World Bank.Note:mt=metric tons.A.Monthly data.Last observation is March 2023.B.C.Change in 2022 from the previous year.D.Shares of EU coal imports by country.January 2021-February 2022 is the period before the Russian invasion of Ukraine;March-August
204、 2022 is the period between the start of the invasion and the effective date of embargoes on Russian export;September 2022 onwards represents the period when sanctions were in place.04080120160200IndiaEuropeChinaRussianFederationSoutheast AsiaRest of worldUnited StatesWorld Totalmt0200400600ChinaInd
205、iaIndonesiaEuropeUnited StatesRest of worldAustraliaRussianFederationWorld Totalmt0255075100Jan 21-Feb22Mar-Aug 22Sep 22-Jan23Russian FederationUnited StatesAustraliaColombiaIndonesiaKazakhstanSouth AfricaRest of worldPercent00500Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Mar-23Coal,AustralianCo
206、al,South AfricanUS$/mt DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 17 conditions,or reduced demand from China,would also dampen prices.Russias invasion of Ukraine has strengthened the incentives to transition away from fossil fuels,both through increased renewable energy production
207、 and reduced energy consumptionparticularly in the United States and Europe.This contributes to the expectation that coal consumption by the United States and Europe will continue to fall.The IEA expects a sharp decline in coal consumption by 2025,particularly in China:global consumption is expected
208、 to peak in 2023,and plateau thereafter(IEA 2022b).Most of the additional energy demand in China is being filled by renewable sources,while generation from renewables in the United States has already surpassed generation from coal(EIA 2023b).Fertilizers The World Banks fertilizer price index fell by
209、 18 percent in 2022 but remains well above the 2015-19 average,in part due to reduced supplies following Russias invasion of Ukraine and ensuing trade restrictions.The recent decrease in prices has been much more pronounced for synthetic fertilizers produced from natural gas,such as urea,than for fe
210、rtilizers obtained from mined minerals,such as DAP and MOP.Declining prices have made fertilizers more affordable,but farmers continue to reduce application rates.Following an expected 37 percent decrease in 2023,the fertilizer price index is projected to fall by 7 percent in 2024 as supply disrupti
211、ons gradually ease and energy input prices fall,but the index will remain at high levels.Upside risks to the price forecast include higher input costs,especially for natural gas.Nitrogen Nitrogen(urea)prices fell 36 percent in 2023Q1(q/q),after falling 7 percent in 2022Q4(figures 7.A and 7.B).The fa
212、ll was driven by reductions in input costs,notably for coal and natural gas which have seen even sharper price drops over the same period(figure 7.C).Global demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers is estimated to have contracted by 4 percent in 2022,in part due to lower exports by Increasing export vo
213、lumes and trade redirection have enabled the coal market to adjust to the disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.The EU has increased imports from Australia,Colombia,Indonesia,Kazakhstan and South Africa to make up for about 40 percent of its imports from Russia,which are now banned(f
214、igure 6.D).At the same time,Russian coal was redirected to China and India,at a discounted price.Outlook Coal prices are forecast to fall 42 percent in 2023 and 23 percent in 2024,but remain well above the 2015-19 average.The forecast assumes that high carbon prices in Europe,combined with lower LNG
215、 prices and European natural gas prices,will reduce demand for coal.Strong demand from Chinas industrial sector is expected to increase exports from Indonesia,Mongolia,and Russia.Australia is also likely to benefit,following the lifting of the unofficial import ban in January 2023 by the Chinese gov
216、ernment.With La Nia ended,Australian exports are set to increase measurably this year.Production is expected to rise in all major exporting regions.The forecast assumes that Indonesia,the largest coal exporter,will increase exports by 5 percent,in response to prices that are still much higher than h
217、istorical averages(IEA 2022b).It also assumes that coal exports from the United States will increase by about 4 percent,driven by elevated prices.Indian coal production should also increase as extraction at existing facilities intensifies.Risks In the short term,upside risks include the possibility
218、that the recovery in China will be stronger than expected,which would raise demand for coal in the industrial and power sectors,increasing import demand and prices.Production shortfalls,or reduced Russian exports,would raise prices.In Europe,higher natural gas prices next winter could encourage swit
219、ching from gas to coal.Downside risks include a deeper-than-expected slowdown in global activity,which would reduce energy demand more broadly.Favorable weather DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 18 the high cost of natural gas(a main input),implying that the impact of res
220、trictions in Russia and China on the EU and United Kingdom did not bind.Global urea production increased by an estimated 2 percent as a result of new capacity,and increased production in low-cost export-oriented producers such as Nigeria and Brunei.Urea prices are expected to halve in 2023 and remai
221、n stable in 2024,as new capacity in the rest of the world offsets lower exports from China and Russia.The decline in urea prices is expected to encourage farmers to switch to urea from other nitrate fertilizers(Technical Note 2).One key risk is that prices could be higher than projected if additiona
222、l expected production does not materialize,or if trade disruptions continue to prevail.Longer-term headwinds for urea are related to its high carbon content.As the energy transition intensifies,one long-term growth opportunity is to use clean nitrogen in energy-efficient projects(for example,as fuel
223、 for ships,as a hydrogen carrier,and in power generation).DAP DAP(diammonium phosphate)prices fell 8 percent in 2023Q1(q/q),although they remain about 76 percent higher than the 2015-19 average(figure 7.A).The DAP price trajectory has followed the price of phosphate and natural gas,as the latter is
224、used in the production of ammonia required to produce DAP(figure 7.C).Following the 260 percent price increase between January 2020 and April 2022,application rates on crops fell in the 2022/23 crop year in several large agricultural commodity-producing countries.As with urea,export restrictions imp
225、acted global trade flows,especially ammonia from Russia(starting in April 2022)and phosphate from China in 2022(figure 7.D).However,exports in the first two months of 2023 seem to have increased from earlier months.Europe has partially offset the lower imports from Russia with higher imports of ammo
226、nia from Trinidad and Tobago and Egypt,and phosphate from Saudi Arabia,the United States and Morocco(figure 7.F).DAP prices are projected to fall in 2023 as supply constraints loosen and remain stable in 2024.Chinas trade ban is expected to be lifted in Russia and China(figure 7.D).Chinas urea expor
227、ts were down 47 percent in 2022;similarly,urea imports by India and Brazil,which produce only a limited share of their domestic urea consumption,declined in 2022 before beginning to recover in early 2023(figure 7.E).Declines in fertilizer production in Europe were in part due to FIGURE 7 Fertilizer
228、market developments Fertilizer prices fell in 2023Q1,reflecting declining input costs.Neverthe-less,fertilizer prices and affordability levels are still well above pre-pandemic levels.Chinas fertilizer exports have declined because of trade restrictions while Russias ammonia exports to Europe have b
229、een replaced by Algeria,Egypt,and Trinidad and Tobago.B.Fertilizer unaffordability A.Fertilizer prices(DAP,Urea,MOP)D.Cumulative fertilizer exports by China C.Fertilizer input costs Sources:Bloomberg;General Administration of Customs(China);UN Comtrade;World Bank.Note:DAP=diammonium phosphate;MOP=mu
230、riate of potassium;mt=metric tons;mmbtu=million British thermal units.A.C.Monthly series.Last observation is March 2023.B.Ratio of Fertilizer prices over Food price index.Last observation is March 2023.D.Monthly series.Last observation is December 2022.E.European Union share includes United Kingdom.
231、F.Bars represent each individual countrys percentage share in Europes ammonia imports.Last observation is December 2022.F.Share of European ammonia imports,by source country E.Fertilizer production divided by consumption,by country,2020 0200920000192020202
232、120222023Less affordableMore affordableIndex02040608005001,0001,5002,000Feb-15Oct-15Jun-16Feb-17Oct-17Jun-18Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Mar-23Tampa ammonia cfrTampa liquid sulfur fobNatural gas,EU(RHS)US$/mtUS$/mmbtu01234567JanMarMayJulSepDecJanMarMayJulSepDecDAPUrea2019-21 average2022Millio
233、n mt0306090120150BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaUnited StatesEuropeanUnionNitrogenPhosphatesPotashPercent02004006008001,0001,2001,400200000222023 DAP Urea MOPUS$/mt0204060801Rest of WorldEgypt,Arab Rep.Saudi ArabiaTrinidad and TobagoAlgeriaUnited
234、StatesRussian FederationPercent DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 19 2024 as supplies increase,and pressures from input costs ease.The food price index is expected to decline by 8 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2024,although prices for most food commodities are expected
235、 to remain above pre-pandemic levels.Risks to the outlook are tilted to the upside and include higher input prices,severe weather events,and an unraveling of the Black Sea Grains Initiative.Food insecurity remains a critical challenge in many developing economies,reflecting elevated food prices,adve
236、rse weather events,and fragility and conflicts.Grains,oils,and meals Recent developments The World Banks grains price index eased almost 5 percent in the first quarter of this year,but remains two-thirds above its pre-pandemic(2015-19)average(figures 8.A and 8.B).Wheat and maize prices declined 8 pe
237、rcent in the first quarter(figure 8.C).However,in 2023Q1,wheat prices were 100 percent above their 2015-19 average and maize prices were 80 percent higher.The Black Sea Grain Initiative,which helped most of Ukraines grains and oilseeds reach the world market,and good harvests in other major producin
238、g countries helped ease price pressures(figure 8.D).Several factors contributed to the 11 percent rice price gain in the first quarter:strong demand related to major festivals and restocking in Asia;currency appreciations against the U.S.dollar in India,Thailand,and Vietnam;and tight supply conditio
239、ns in the 2022-23 season in most of Asias rice producersincluding China,India,Myanmar,Thailand,and Vietnam.Also,Pakistan suffered catastrophic floods in September 2022 which have since devastated harvests and exports of rice.The oils and meals price index was stable between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,as the
240、surge in the first half of 2022 had largely been unwound by 2022Q3,but the index remains 52 percent above its 2015-19 average.Prices were down for the three oils most affected by Russias invasion of Ukraine.Between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,the price of soybean oil was off 20 precent,rapeseed oil was down 1
241、4 percent,and sunflower oil declined 12 percent.In contrast,prices of groundnuts,fishmeal,soybean meal,and palm oil increased.April 2023 as scheduled,but exports may remain constrained by high domestic demand.The forecast assumes that Russia will continue to redirect most exports towards Brazil and
242、India.Still,ammonia prices will continue to be affected by gas market dynamics and trade restrictions.Long-term demand for phosphate by producers of EVs should increase as carmakers follow China in the adoption of lithium-iron phosphate batteries to cut costs.MOP MOP(muriate of potash,or potassium c
243、hloride)prices continued to fall,by 14 percent in 2023 Q1,although they remain about 95 percent above their 2015-19 average(figure 7.A).Demand has been weak because of high prices following the sanctions imposed in 2022 on exports from Russia and Belarus,which together produce about 40 percent of gl
244、obal MOP output.Brazils imports were also down more than 50 percent in 2022Q4 partly because of high prices(figure 7.E).As with other fertilizers,the MOP market continues to be affected by a redirection of Russian and Belarussian exports to Brazil,China,and India,while Canadian exports are being div
245、erted to Europe.Prices are projected to fall by 45 percent in 2023,and a further 10 percent in 2024.Global demand is expected to recover in 2023 from reduced fertilizer application in 2022.Global supply is projected to edge higher,although significant new capacity is not expected until 2026 with Can
246、adas large Jansen project.A downside risk to prices(assuming continuation of sanctions)stems from the possibility that Belarus finds an alternate seaborne export route,including through Russian territory).Agriculture The broader food price index did not change between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1 as increased
247、prices of other foods were offset by declines in prices of grains.Beverage prices have remained broadly stable during the past few quarters,with price declines in tea and coffee and price increases in cocoa.The agricultural raw materials index rose in 2023Q1,led by gains in timber prices.Agricultura
248、l prices are projected to decline by 7 percent in 2023,and ease further in DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 20 as Australia,Canada,Russia,and the United Statescontribute to lower prices.In 2023,wheat prices are expected to be 17 percent lower and maize prices 15 percent
249、lower than in 2022,amid weak global demand(aside from China,which may see a pickup in demand for maize in animal feed).At the same time,falling crude oil prices should reduce demand for maize in ethanol production.Rice prices on average are expected to be 17 percent higher in 2023,with much of the i
250、ncrease already having taken place.Rice prices are expected to decline in 2024,as Pakistans exports recover and high rice prices in 2023 encourage rice production elsewhere.Global grain supplies over the forecast period are expected to rebound from the supply contraction in 2022(figure 9.B).Brazil i
251、s set for a record-breaking grain harvest in 2023 as a result of favorable weather.Similarly,better-than-expected grain harvests in Australia,Canada,Kazakhstan,and Russia in the 2022 production season are likely to lead to higher stock-to-use ratios for 2023(figure 9.C).In addition,planting intentio
252、ns surveys from the United States indicate sizable increases in maize and wheat acreage,which may put additional downward pressure on 2023 prices(figure 9.D;USDA 2023b).Global production of oil seeds,oil meals,and vegetable oils is expected to be higher in 2022-23 than in the previous season because
253、 of favorable planting conditions in countries that are major producers or crushers of oil seeds.Other foods The World Banks other food price indexwhich includes sugar,meat,and fruitsincreased in the first quarter of 2023,driven by price gains in sugar and oranges.Sugar prices gained 4 percent in th
254、e United States,5 percent in the EU,and 8 percent in the world(international sugar agreement)between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1 as the global economy recovered from the pandemic.Orange prices rose by 13 percent because of production declines in Spain and Italycountries that account for three-quarters of EU o
255、range pro-ductiondue to hot and dry summer conditions.Prices of beef and poultry remained stable in 2023Q1.The increase in edible oil supplies in 2022,the Black Sea Grain Initiative,the expiration of several export bans,and improving global supply chain conditions contributed to the price decline(fi
256、gure 9.A;USDA 2023a).Outlook The grains price index is expected to fall by 10 percent in 2023 and a further 8 percent in 2024,following a 21 percent increase in 2022.The oils and meals price index is expected to decline by 14 percent in 2023 and 2 percent in 2024.The forecast assumes that there are
257、no further disruptions from the war in Ukraine,while good harvests in major grain producing countriessuch FIGURE 8 Agricultural commodity market developments Agricultural prices in 2023Q1 have dropped to levels comparable to those before April 2022,but they still remain historically high.Despite the
258、 recent decline,grain prices are more than two-thirds higher than their pre-pandemic average.Prices of oils and meals remain high in real terms,around the same level reached during the 2012 food price crisis.B.Agricultural price indexes A.Agriculture price indexes D.Volume of shipments from Ukraine
259、under the Black Sea Grain Initiative C.Food commodity prices Source:World Bank.A.C.Monthly data.Last observation is March 2023.C.Wheat refers to the U.S.hard red winter(HRW)benchmark.Rice refers to Thai 5 percent benchmark.mt=metric tons.D.EAP=East Asia and Pacific;ECA=Europe and Central Asia;MNA=Mi
260、ddle East and North Africa;SAR=South Asia;SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa.HICs=high-income countries;UMCs=upper-middle income countries;LMCs=low-middle income countries;LICs=low-income countries.Mmt=million metric tons.Black See Grain Initiative Outbound Shipments from inception in July 22,2022 to April 12,2
261、023.0200400600800Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23WheatMaizeSoybeanRiceUS$/mt0246810121416EAPECAMNASARSSAHICsUMCsLMCsLICsWorld Bank regionIncome groupMmt04080120160FoodOils and mealsGrainsOther foodsBeveragesRaw materials2015-19 average2023Q1Index,100=2001401601
262、80Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23Oils and mealsGrainsOther foodUS$indexes,100=2010 DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 21 Geopolitics.The war in Ukraine remains a major risk that could unsettle wheat,maize,oilseeds,and fertilizer marketspossibly
263、 raising prices.The Black Sea Grain Initiative was renewed in mid-March on the day it was due to expire.The terms of a renewal are still uncertain as Ukraine stated that the initiative should be renewed for 120 days,while Russia indicated that it has agreed to a 60-day arrangement.These developments
264、 suggest that,before the end of the year,the global grains market could see new bouts of price volatility amid heightened uncertainty about the longer-term outlook.The stakes for the success of the Black Sea Grain Initiative are now higher since agricultural products leaving Ukraine via road,rails,a
265、nd river,face new challenges.In mid-April,Prices of other foods are expected to increase by 3 percent in 2023 and 1 percent in 2024.The reopening of Chinas economy is expected to raise demand for meat and sugar from the countrys catering sector amid a strong revival of tourism.World sugar prices are
266、 expected to increase by 10 percent in 2023 and 2 percent in 2024 for similar reasons.Both meat and sugar prices are expected to level off in 2024 as Chinas post-pandemic rebound fades.Despite production increases in Brazil and Thailand,growing consumptioncombined with adverse weather and poor harve
267、sts in the EU,India,China,and Pakistan so far this yearwill likely tighten the supply of sugar further.Expected record production of grains in Brazil,which use transport routes similar to those for sugar,will also complicate the logistics of transporting sugar destined for exports.Beef prices are fo
268、recast to be lower in 2023 in the United States(the reference market for beef)based on increased slaughter projections.Risks to the food price forecasts Risks to the food price forecast are tilted to the upside but have receded somewhat since the October 2022 assessment.In the short term,the removal
269、 of trade restrictions and slower global growth could push food prices lower,while geopolitical risks and possible severe weather events in 2023 could push up food prices.In the longer term,intensification of climate change,biofuels mandates,and greater market concentra-tion are likely to play an im
270、portant role.Trade restrictions and related policies.The list of active trade restrictionssuch as export bans,export requirements,and export licensing requirementscontinued to expand in 2022,as policy makers used these to respond to inflationary pressures.Most of the active restrictions on cross-bor
271、der trade,however,are expiring soon.If they are not renewed,this will exert downward pressure on prices as better price signals allow global markets to adjust.Lower global growth.Continued weakness in global growth could lead to lackluster demand and lower prices of agricultural commodities.FIGURE 9
272、 Global supply conditions for grains and edible oils During the 2022-23 crop season,supply conditions for grains were tight.But they were improving for edible oils.Stock-to-use ratios for grains have fallen but remain adequate(a rough indicator of supply relative to projected demand).Planting intent
273、ions surveys in the United States for 2023 indicate that planted acreage for maize and wheat will increase by 4 percent and 9 percent,respectively,compared to 2022,while soybean acreage will increase slightly,and cotton acreage will decline by 18 percent.B.Grain supply growth A.Edible oil supply gro
274、wth D.Changes in planting intentions in the United States in 2023 compared to area planted in 2022 C.Stock-to-use ratios Sources:U.S.Department of Agriculture;World Bank.A.-C.Years represent crop season(for example,2019 refers to 2019-20).Data as of April 2023.-0200250200132
275、00020202120221990-2021 averagemmt,annual change005200720092001720192021MaizeRiceWheatRatio-3-125MaizeSoybeanWheatCottonOther cropsMillion acres03690020202120221990-2021 averagemmt,annual change DEVELOPMENTS AND O
276、UTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 22 The corresponding shocks to agricultural produc-tion will pose upside price risks,and at the worst,cause widespread famine.Biofuels.Growing biofuels production in the United States,and favorable biofuel policies in Brazil,Indonesia,and Malaysia support
277、sustained demand for ethanol and biodiesel,which will put upward pressure on prices of maize,soybeans,and oilseeds(figure 10.A).The push for a transition to electric vehicles,particularly in the United States,will gradually depress demand for fossil fuels and ethanol,although it is unlikely to have
278、a similar impact on biodiesel because electric vehicle technology is less prevalent in heavy trucks and machinery that use diesel and substitutes.This may induce acreage shifts to soybeans and away from maize,as biodiesel production will provide sustained demand for soybeans.Changing market structur
279、e.Market concen-tration is a potential source of price uncertainty.The rice market is a case in point.Rice is an internationally thinly traded commodity,where the share of export in production is only around 10 percent(figure 10.B).In the last three years,rice markets shifted from being competitive
280、to moderately concentrated as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index,a commonly accepted gauge of market concentration.Thailand,once the leading exporter,has been replaced by India.Indias market share of rice exports increased from 25 percent in 2017 to 40 percent in 2022as Indias export volumes
281、 rose,and Thailands export volumes fell.With frequent trade restrictions imposed in Indiathe latest a 20 percent export duty on certain rice varieties and a complete ban on broken ricesuch a change in market concentration can exert upward pressure on prices,especially when accompanied by distor-tion
282、ary practices such as trade restrictions(figures 10.C and 10.D;Laborde and Mamun 2022).Implications for food insecurity and food price infation More than 349 million people worldwide are projected to be food insecure in 2023(more than double the number in 2020),due to conflicts,economic shocks,clima
283、te extremes,and soaring fertilizer prices(WFP 2023).More than 100 Ukraines EU-member neighborsthrough which Ukraines products were transiting to third countries under an EU agreementblocked import and transit of the countrys agricultural products.Ukraines neighbors took this action because much of t
284、he produce destined for overseas markets stayed in their countries due to shortages of trains and trucks,which dampened local prices.Weather.As of April 2023,there is a 62 percent chance that the weather-affecting El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon will develop during May-July,and a more th
285、an 80 percent chance during September-November(NOAA 2023).This raises the odds that record-warm temperatures and altered precipitation patterns could affect crop yields across the globe,particularly in the Southern Hemisphere.Com-modities sensitive to El Nio effects include coffee,rice,palm oil,and
286、natural rubber(World Bank 2015).Some long-term risk factors will continue to affect food production and food prices:Climate change.Climate change is raising the probability of food shortages and hunger through desertification,land degradation,crop failures,and damage to food supply infrastructure.Un
287、der the medium socio-economic pathways(SSP2)assumption of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),model-based forecasts show a median increase of 7.6 percent(in the range of 1-to-23 percent)of cereal prices by 2050 due to climate change(IPCC 2019).3 With rising global temperatures,the fr
288、equency of droughts will increase.The effects on output will be particularly severe in regions that are highly fertile yet already aridwhich include the Mediterranean countries,southern Africa,the western United States,and grasslands(prairies,savannas,and pampas)in many parts of the world.The freque
289、ncy and intensity of extreme rainfall events will increase in many regions(IPCC 2019).3 IPCCs medium socio-economic pathways(SSP2)assumes medium population growth with medium income and technological progress,where production and consumption patterns are a continuation of past trends with only a gra
290、dual reduction in inequality.The analysis assumes a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory(representative concentration pathway)that sees emissions peak around 2080,and then decline.DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 23 million people in sub-Saharan Africa face acute food
291、 insecurity,with 72 percent of them residing in east and southern Africa.The unprecedented three years of drought in the Horn of Africa,with five consecutive seasons of below-average rains,have created a humanitarian emergency.Twenty million people in Somalia and South Sudan face famine,while 22 mil
292、lion people in Ethiopia and 10 million people in the Democratic Republic of Congo face acute food insecurity.The risk of acute food insecurity is high in countries facing fragility,conflict,and violence and is increasingly likely to affect low-income countries experiencing natural disasters(figures
293、11.A and 11.B).The global year-on-year domestic food price inflation rate in the first quarter of 2023 averaged about 19.5 percent,with large variation across countries(figure 12.A).4 Nine out of 10 low-and middle-income countries are experiencing food price inflation above 5 percent(figure 12.B).Fo
294、od price inflation has been highest on average in the Middle East and North Africa region,but individual countries elsewhere have experienced extreme inflation.For example,in early 2023,food price inflation exceeded 100 percent in Argentina,Lebanon,and Zimbabwe,and was higher than 30 percent in many
295、 countries.Trade-limiting government restrictions have exacerbated the global problem.There is a risk that persistent headline inflation might spill over into the costs of labor and other inputs to farming,thereby generating unexpected cost-push pressures on food prices.Beverages The World Banks bev
296、erage price index was broadly stable between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,despite an 11 percent increase in cocoa priceswhich was offset by a similarly large decline in tea prices(figure 13.A).With the beverage index in the first quarter of 2023 down more than 7 percent from a year ago,the index is expected to
297、 be 5 percent lower in 2023 than in 2022.In 2024,it is FIGURE 10 Long-term risks to food outlook Growing biofuels production in the United States,and biofuel policies in Brazil,Indonesia,and Malaysia,support sustained demand for ethanol and biodiesel.Over the last five years,Indias share of global r
298、ice exports has surged from 25 to 40 percent.India has now surpassed Thailand to become the worlds largest exporter of rice.The growing concentration of rice markets could result in a greater impact on prices from Indias recent restrictions on exports.C.Export shares,major rice producing countries A
299、.Biofuels production D.Index of market concentration in grain production B.Share of grain exports in global production Sources:Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development;U.S.Department of Agriculture;World Bank;OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031,OECD Agriculture statistics(database),
300、http:/dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en.D.Herfindahl-Hirschman index(HHI)of market concentration.An HHI reading below 1,500 is considered competitive;an HHI of 1,500 to 2,500 is moderately concentrated;and an HHI of 2,500 or greater is highly concentrated.051015202530WheatMaizeRice-22Pe
301、rcent01020304050IndiaPakistanThailand Vietnam-22Percent05001,0001,5002,0002,500WheatMaizeRice-22Index0408005200720092000232025BiodieselEthanolBillion litresexpected to drop a further 3 percent as new supplies,particularly in the coffee market,co
302、me online.Coffee Arabica coffee prices have not experienced signifi-cant changes between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,but they are 49 percent above their pre-pandemic average(2015-19).Meanwhile,Robusta coffee prices have increased by 6 percent in the first quarter of 2023(q/q)but remain more than 5 percent low
303、er than they were a year ago.Global coffee production is expected to rise by more than 5 percent in the current season(July-to-June),with most of the growth coming from Brazil,which is projected to account for over one-third of 4 Global inflation is calculated as the annual(year-over-year),unweighte
304、d average of 152 countries(including 51 high-income countries,44 upper-middle-income countries,40 lower-middle-income countries,and 17 low-income countries)as of 2023Q1.The figure for February 2023 alone is 20 percent.DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 24 global output(fig
305、ure 13.B).The increase in Brazils production is in part a rebound from a sharp decline last year that was caused by adverse weather conditions.In 2023,Arabica coffee prices are expected to fall by 15 percent due to the increased output,while Robusta coffee prices are expected to remain broadly stabl
306、e due to a tighter market.Prices for both Arabica and Robusta are forecast to decline marginally in 2024.Cocoa Cocoa prices increased 11 percent between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,and they are more than 5 percent higher than the 2015-19 average(figure 13.C).The global production of cocoa is projected to grow
307、 by 3 percent during the current 2022-23 season(figure 13.D).There has been an even faster increase in consumption,supporting cocoa prices as well as leading to a depletion of inventory levels from 1.97 million metric tons(mmt)in 2020-21 to 1.78 mmt in 2022-23.Cocoa prices are expected to average 13
308、 percent higher in 2023 before easing in 2024 when more cocoa supplies are projected to come online.Tea Tea prices declined by almost 11 percent between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1.The Kolkata auction was particularly affected,with a 30 percent drop,while the decrease was a more moderate 4 percent in Mombasa(
309、figure 13.E).The primary reason for the recent price weakness has been slowing demand in key tea consumption regions,especially in Central Asia related to the war in Ukraine.As demand weakness is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year,the three-auction average will be around 11 percent
310、 lower in 2023 compared to 2022.However,an anticipated reduction in production is expected to stabilize prices in 2024(figure 13.F).Agricultural raw materials The World Banks raw material price index gained a little more than 2 percent between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,but it is 13 percent lower than a year
311、 ago.Cotton and natural rubber prices,key FIGURE 11 Food insecurity Food insecurity has worsened in 2022,and acute food insecurity reached its highest level of the last seven years.This reflects the effects of elevated food price inflation,adverse weather events,and fragility and conflict situations
312、.A.Number of people with food insecurity by fragility and conflict situations B.Number of people with food insecurity by occurrence of natural disasters Sources:EM-DAT(database);Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;World Bank;World Food Program.Note:LICs=low-income countries;MICs=
313、middle-income countries.A.B.International Food Security Phase Classifications(IPC)include(1)minimal/none,(2)stressed,(3)crisis,(4)emergency,and(5)catastrophe/famine.Bars represent the number of people worldwide that face crisis or more severe(IPC3+)food insecurity.B.Natural disasters are floods,drou
314、ghts,or wildfires that affected at least 4 million people,as recorded in the EM-DAT database.FIGURE 12 Domestic food price inflation High food and energy prices continue to pass through to domestic food inflation,a major concern because households in developing countries on average spend about a thi
315、rd of their consumption basket on food.Ninety percent of low-and middle-income countries face food price inflation above 5 percent.A.Domestic food price inflation in 2023Q1 B.Share of countries with high domestic food price inflation in 2023Q1 Sources:Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
316、Nations;World Bank;World Food Program.A.Year-on-year change of food price inflation,average of January-March 2023.EAP=East Asia and Pacific;ECA=Europe and Central Asia;LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean;MNA=Middle East and North Africa;SAR=South Asia;SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa.B.HICs=high-income countr
317、ies;UMCs=upper-middle-income countries;LMCs=lower-middle-income countries;LICs=low-income countries.Share of countries where food price inflation in 2023Q1 is higher than 5 percent and 10 percent,year-on-year.0255075100Greater than 5percentGreater than 10percentHICsLICsLMCsUMCsShare of countries0102
318、0304050051015202530MNASSAECALACSAREAPEMDEsFood price inflationShare of food in consumptionbasket(RHS)PercentPercent DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 25 However,the law also raises uncertainty for many food commodities grown in forested areasfor example,cattle,cocoa,coffe
319、e,palm oil,and soy-beans.Similar uncertainty applies to agricultural raw materials such as wood and ponents of the index,are 28 and 22 percent lower than in 2022Q1,respectively(figure 14.A).Robust supplies from key producers have kept prices in check during the last two quarters.The index is expecte
320、d to be almost 6 percent lower in 2023 and gain marginally in 2024.Cotton Cotton prices declined slightly in 2023Q1 from the previous quarter,but they are down by 28 percent compared to the same period last year.This drop is mainly due to a decrease in global consumption,which is expected to be more
321、 than 5 percent lower this season(ending in July 2023),in response to global growth concerns.Although cotton production in Australia,Cte dIvoire,Mali,and Pakistan is expected to decline,this will be offset by increases in China and India,resulting in little overall change in global cotton production
322、(figure 14.B).Cotton prices are projected to decline by more than 23 percent in 2023 but are expected to increase slightly in 2024 due to reduced plantings in key producing countries like the United States.Natural rubber Natural rubber prices gained 7 percent between 2022Q4 and 2023Q1,but they are 2
323、2 percent lower than a year ago.The price weakness reflects weak growth in auto production,as nearly two-thirds of natural rubber is used for tire manufacturing.Global natural rubber demand totaled 13.7 mmt in 2022(slightly down from a year earlier,figure 14.C).Meanwhile,global production reached a
324、record high of 14.3 mmt due to good crops in Thailand and Vietnam,the worlds largest suppliers(figure 14.D).Natural rubber prices are projected to average 9 percent lower in 2023 compared to last year.Prices are expected to gain more than 7 percent in 2024 as demand for natural rubber strengthens,es
325、pecially from China.A key long-term risk to agricultural markets is a new environmental law by the EU to moderate global deforestation,which will have beneficial long-run implications for climate change,and for sustainable farming(European Commission 2022).FIGURE 13 Beverage commodity market develop
326、ments Arabica coffee prices declined less than 1 percent,while Robusta coffee gained 6 percent in 2023Q1,reflecting slower exports from South America,weather concerns,and low inventory levels.Cocoa prices increased nearly 11 percent in 2023Q1 because of reduced inventories linked to unfavora-ble wea
327、ther in west Africa.Tea prices declined more than 10 percent in 2023Q1,led by large declines in the Kolkata auction,with moderate de-clines in Mombasa and Colombo auctions.B.Coffee production A.Coffee Arabica and Robusta prices D.Cocoa production C.Cocoa prices Sources:Africa Tea Brokers Limited;Blo
328、omberg;International Cocoa Organization(ICCO);International Tea Committee;Tea Board India;Tea Exporters Association Sri Lanka;U.S.Department of Agriculture;World Bank.Note:mt=metric tons.A.C.E.Monthly data.Last observation is March 2023.B.D.Years represent crop season(for example,2021 refers to 2021
329、-22).Data updated as of February 12,2023.D.Data for 2021-22 is ICCO forecast.F.12-month change in tea production between March 2022 and February 2023.F.Tea production E.Tea prices-15-10-505000222000-21 averageMillions of 60 kg bags,annual change2.02.22.42.62.8Jan-20M
330、ay-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23US$/kg-6008002000212000-21 averagemt,thousands,annual change12345Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23KolkataColomboMombasaUS$/kg1.31.72.12.52.9234567Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Ja
331、n-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23Coffee ArabicaCoffee Robusta(RHS)US$/kgUS$/kg-100-80-60-40-2002040KenyaSri LankaUgandaSouth IndiaTanzaniaBangladeshMalawiNorth Indiamt,thousands,annual change DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2023 26 resulting from trade restrictions.In the longer term,t
332、he energy transition could significantly lift the demand for and prices of some metalsnotably aluminum,copper,and nickel.Base metals and iron ore The World Banks metals and minerals price index increased 10 percent in the first quarter of 2023 from the previous quarter(figure 15.A).The price index i
333、n 2023Q1 was 51 percent above its 2015-19 average,with all base metals posting higher prices.The reopening of Chinas economy and supply concerns have been the main factors supporting price increases,especially for copper and tin(figure 15.B).Chinas reopening following its“Zero COVID-19”policy initially raised optimism regarding the demand for industrial commodities.However,Chinas property sector,w