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1、AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FORUMAfricas Resource FutureHarnessing Natural Resources for Economic Transformation during the Low-Carbon TransitionEdited by James Custand Albert ZeufackAfricas Resource FutureAfricas Resource FutureHarnessing Natural Resources for Economic Transformation during the Low-Carbon T

2、ransitionJames Cust and Albert Zeufack,EditorsA copublication of the Agence franaise de dveloppement and the World Bank 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1

3、2 3 4 26 25 24 23 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent,or the Age

4、nce Franaise de Dveloppement.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy,completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions,or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the informa

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7、tivecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:Cust,James,and Albert Zeufack,eds.2023.Africas R

8、esource Future:Harnessing Natural Resources for Economic Transformation during the Low-Carbon Transition.Africa Development Forum.Washington,DC:World Bank.doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1743-4.License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add t

9、he following disclaimer along with the attri-bution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,p

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11、he World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual compo-nent or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims

12、 resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibil-ity to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,table

13、s,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN(paper):978-1-4648-1743-4ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1744-1DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1743-4Cover photo:Zb

14、ynek Burival/U(https:/ with the permission of Zbynek Burival/U.Further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Ricardo Echecopar/Beyond SAC;original design by Bill Pragluski,Critical Stages,LLC.Library of Congress Control Number:2022919548Africa Development Forum SeriesThe Africa Development Foru

15、m Series was created in 2009 to focus on issues of significant relevance to Sub-Saharan Africas social and economic development.Its aim is both to record the state of the art on a specific topic and to contribute to ongoing local,regional,and global policy debates.It is designed specifically to prov

16、ide practitioners,scholars,and students with the most up-to-date research results while highlighting the promise,challenges,and opportunities that exist on the continent.The series is sponsored by Agence franaise de dveloppement and the World Bank.The manuscripts chosen for publication represent the

17、 highest quality in each institution and have been selected for their relevance to the development agenda.Working together with a shared sense of mission and interdisciplinary purpose,the two institutions are committed to a common search for new insights and new ways of analyzing the development rea

18、lities of the Sub-Saharan Africa region.Advisory Committee MembersAgence franaise de dveloppementThomas Mlonio,Executive Director,Research and Knowledge DirectorateHlne Djoufelkit,Director,Head of Economic Assessment and Public Policy DepartmentSophie Chauvin,Head,Publications DivisionWorld BankAndr

19、ew L.Dabalen,Chief Economist,Africa RegionCesar Calderon,Lead Economist,Africa RegionChorching Goh,Lead Economist,Africa RegionSub-Saharan AfricaZIMBABWEANGOLABURUNDIRWANDACHADNIGERUGANDAKENYASOMALIAETHIOPIAERITREASUDANSOUTHSUDANCENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLICREP.OFCONGONIGERIATOGOSENEGALLIBERIASIERRA LEONE

20、GUINEACTEDIVOIREGUINEA-BISSAUDEMOCRATICREPUBLICOF CONGOSOUTHAFRICALESOTHOESWATINIBOTSWANAZAMBIAMOZAMBIQUEMADAGASCARCOMOROSSEYCHELLESMALAWITANZANIANAMIBIAMAURITIUSCAMEROONGABONEQUATORIAL GUINEASO TOM AND PRNCIPEMALIBENINBURKINA FASOMAURITANIACABOVERDETHE GAMBIAGHANAIBRD 39088|MARCH 2023La Runion(Fr.)

21、Mayotte(Fr.)Source:World Bank.viiTitles in the Africa Development Forum Series2023Africas Resource Future:Harnessing Natural Resources for Economic Transformation during the Low-Carbon Transition(2023),James Cust,Albert Zeufack(eds.)2021Social Contracts for Development:Bargaining,Contention,and Soci

22、al Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa(2021),Mathieu Cloutier,Bernard Harborne,Deborah Isser,Indhira Santos,Michael Watts*Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa:Seizing Opportunities in Global Value Chains(2021),Lindustrialisation en Afrique subsaharienne:saisir les opportuni-ts offertes par les chanes

23、 de valeur mondiales(2022),Kaleb G.Abreha,Woubet Kassa,Emmanuel K.K.Lartey,Taye A.Mengistae,Solomon Owusu,Albert G.Zeufack2020*Les systmes agroalimentaires en Afrique:repenser le rle des marches(2020),Food Systems in Africa:Rethinking the Role of Markets(2021),Gaelle Balineau,Arthur Bauer,Martin Kes

24、sler,Nicole Madariaga*The Future of Work in Africa:Harnessing the Potential of Digital Technologies for All(2020),Lavenir du travail en Afrique:exploiter le potentiel des technologies numriques pour un monde du travail plus inclusif(2021),Jieun Choi,Mark A.Dutz,Zainab Usman(eds.)2019All Hands on Dec

25、k:Reducing Stunting through Multisectoral Efforts in Sub-Saharan Africa(2019),Emmanuel Skoufias,Katja Vinha,Ryoko Sato*The Skills Balancing Act in Sub-Saharan Africa:Investing in Skills for Productivity,Inclusivity,and Adaptability(2019),Le dveloppement des comptences en Afrique subsaharienne,un exe

26、rcice dquilibre:investir dans les comptences pour la productivit,linclusion et ladaptabilit(2020),Omar Arias,David K.Evans,Indhira Santos*Electricity Access in Sub-Saharan Africa:Uptake,Reliability,and Complementary Factors for Economic Impact(2019),Accs llectricit en Afrique subsaharienne:adoption,

27、fiabilit et facteurs complmentaires dimpact conomique(2020),Moussa P.Blimpo,Malcolm Cosgrove-Daviesviii TiTleS in The AFricA DevelopmenT Forum SerieS2018*Facing Forward:Schooling for Learning in Africa(2018),Perspectives:lcole au service de lapprentissage en Afrique(2019),Sajitha Bashir,Marlaine Loc

28、kheed,Elizabeth Ninan,Jee-Peng TanRealizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa(2018),Kathleen Beegle,Aline Coudouel,Emma Monsalve(eds.)2017*Mining in Africa:Are Local Communities Better Off?(2017),Lexploitation minire en Afrique:les communauts locales en tirent-elles parti?(2020),Pun

29、am Chuhan-Pole,Andrew L.Dabalen,Bryan Christopher Land*Reaping Richer Returns:Public Spending Priorities for African Agriculture Productivity Growth(2017),Obtenir de meilleurs rsultats:priorits en matire de dpenses publiques pour les gains de productivit de lagriculture africaine(2020),Aparajita Goy

30、al,John Nash2016Confronting Drought in Africas Drylands:Opportunities for Enhancing Resilience(2016),Raffaello Cervigni,Michael Morris(eds.)2015*Africas Demographic Transition:Dividend or Disaster?(2015),La transition dmographique de lAfrique:dividende ou catastrophe?(2016),David Canning,Sangeeta Ra

31、ja,Abdo S.Yazbeck(eds.)Highways to Success or Byways to Waste:Estimating the Economic Benefits of Roads in Africa(2015),Rubaba Ali,A.Federico Barra,Claudia Berg,Richard Damania,John Nash,Jason RussEnhancing the Climate Resilience of Africas Infrastructure:The Power and Water Sectors(2015),Raffaello

32、Cervigni,Rikard Liden,James E.Neumann,Kenneth M.Strzepek(eds.)The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa(2015),Alexandre Marc,Neelam Verjee,Stephen Mogaka*Land Delivery Systems in West African Cities:The Example of Bamako,Mali(2015),Le systme dapprovisionnement en terres dans les villes

33、dAfrique de lOuest:lexemple de Bamako(2015),Alain Durand-Lasserve,Malis Durand-Lasserve,Harris Selod*Safety Nets in Africa:Effective Mechanisms to Reach the Poor and Most Vulnerable(2015),Les filets sociaux en Afrique:mthodes efficaces pour cibler les populations pauvres et vulnrables en Afrique sub

34、saharienne(2015),Carlo del Ninno,Bradford Mills(eds.)TiTleS in The AFricA DevelopmenT Forum SerieS ix2014Tourism in Africa:Harnessing Tourism for Growth and Improved Livelihoods(2014),Iain Christie,Eneida Fernandes,Hannah Messerli,Louise Twining-Ward*Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa(2014),Lemp

35、loi des jeunes en Afrique subsaharienne(2014),Deon Filmer,Louise Fox2013*Les marchs urbains du travail en Afrique subsaharienne(2013),Urban Labor Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa(2013),Philippe De Vreyer,Franois Roubaud(eds.)Enterprising Women:Expanding Economic Opportunities in Africa(2013),Mary Hallw

36、ard-DriemeierSecuring Africas Land for Shared Prosperity:A Program to Scale Up Reforms and Investments(2013),Frank F.K.ByamugishaThe Political Economy of Decentralization in Sub-Saharan Africa:A New Implementation Model(2013),Bernard Dafflon,Thierry Madis(eds.)2012Empowering Women:Legal Rights and E

37、conomic Opportunities in Africa(2012),Mary Hallward-Driemeier,Tazeen Hasan*Financing Africas Cities:The Imperative of Local Investment(2012),Financer les villes dAfrique:lenjeu de linvestissement local(2012),Thierry Paulais*Structural Transformation and Rural Change Revisited:Challenges for Late Dev

38、eloping Countries in a Globalizing World(2012),Transformations rurales et dveloppement:les dfis du changement structurel dans un monde globalis(2013),Bruno Losch,Sandrine Frguin-Gresh,Eric Thomas White*Light Manufacturing in Africa:Targeted Policies to Enhance Private Investment and Create Jobs(2012

39、),Lindustrie lgre en Afrique:politiques cibles pour susciter linvestissement priv et crer des emplois(2012),Hinh T.Dinh,Vincent Palmade,Vandana Chandra,Frances Cossar*The Informal Sector in Francophone Africa:Firm Size,Productivity,and Institu-tions(2012),Les entreprises informelles de lAfrique de l

40、ouest francophone:taille,productivit et institutions(2012),Nancy Benjamin,Ahmadou Aly Mbaye2011Contemporary Migration to South Africa:A Regional Development Issue(2011),Aurelia Segatti,Loren Landau(eds.)Challenges for African Agriculture(2011),Jean-Claude Deveze(ed.)x TiTleS in The AFricA Developmen

41、T Forum SerieS*Lconomie politique de la dcentralisation dans quatre pays dAfrique subsaharienne:Burkina Faso,Sngal,Ghana et Kenya(2011),Bernard Dafflon,Thierry Madis(eds.)2010Gender Disparities in Africas Labor Market(2010),Jorge Saba Arbache,Alexandre Kolev,Ewa Filipiak(eds.)*Africas Infrastructure

42、:A Time for Transformation(2010),Infrastructures africaines:une transformation imprative(2010),Vivien Foster,Cecilia Briceo-Garmendia(eds.)Challenges for African Agriculture(2011),Jean-Claude Deveze(ed.)*Available in FrenchAll books in the Africa Development Forum series that were copublished by Age

43、nce franaise de dveloppement and the World Bank are available for free at https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2150.xicontentsForeword xxiAcknowledgments xxiiiAbout the Editors and Contributors xxvMain Messages xxviiExecutive Summary xxxiAbbreviations xliii Overview 1The Untapped Economic

44、 Potential of Sub-Saharan Africas Oil,Gas,and Mineral Resources 1The Legacy and Lessons from Africas Commodity Price Boom and Bust 14Unlocking the Mining Sectors Economic Potential through Regional Integration and the African Continental Free Trade Area 30Looking Ahead to Africas Resource Future 41N

45、otes 52References 531 The Untapped Economic Potential of Sub-Saharan Africas Oil,Gas,and Mineral Resources 59Introduction 59The Significant Rise in Resource-Rich Countries across Africa in the Past Two Decades 61The Untapped Resource Potential of Africa 64Unlocking SME Potential in the Mining Sector

46、 79Conclusions 90 xii AFricAS reSource FuTurePolicy Recommendations 91Annex 1A Analysis of Trade Elasticities 92Notes 97References 982 The Legacy and Lessons of Africas Commodity Price Boom and Bust 101Introduction 101Outcome 1:Economic Growth in Resource-Rich Africa Collapsed Once Commodity Prices

47、Fell 104Outcome 2:Poverty Has Deepened in Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries 106Outcome 3:Inequality Has Persisted in Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries 111Outcome 4:Despite Significant Earnings during the Boom,Resource-Rich Africa Failed to Diversify Its Economies 112Export Concen

48、tration:The Boom Drove Increased Export Concentration 114Asset Concentration:What Happened to the Wealth of Nations?116Outcome 5:Governance Was an Important Determining Factor in Outcomes for Resource-Rich Countries 121Governing New Discoveries and Managing Expectations:The Risk of the Presource Cur

49、se 123Managing Macroeconomic Risks 127Resource-Backed Loans Carry Hidden Risks 130Conclusions:Insights from the Boom-and-Bust Cycle 131Notes 132References 1323 Unlocking the Mining Sectors Economic Potential through Regional Integration and the African Continental Free TradeArea 137Introduction 137T

50、he African Continental Free Trade Area 138Tariff Barriers 141conTenTS xiiiNontariff Barriers:Logistics and Infrastructure 145Policy Impediments:Local Content Policy Requirements and ExportRestrictions 151Policy Recommendations 170Tariffs 171Nontariff Barriers 172Policy Impediments 173Notes 176Refere

51、nces 1764 Looking Ahead to Africas ResourceFuture 181Introduction 181Megatrend 1:The Low-Carbon Transition 182Megatrend 2:Mechanization and Digital Transformation 187Megatrend 3:Environmental Consequences 202Megatrend 4:Long-Term Structural Effects 207Conclusions 214Annex 4A Chiles Nitrate Age,Nitra

52、te Crisis,and Unprecedented SuccessStory 215Notes 219References 220BoxesES.1 Policy Recommendations xxxii1.1 Strengthening Support to Junior African Mining Companies 803.1 The Cost of Being Landlocked:The Case of Zambia 1483.2 Alleviating the State-Owned Enterprise Energy Bottleneck in the Mining Se

53、ctor 1504.1 Will Digital Transformation Adoption Disrupt Work in Africas Mining Sector?197FiguresES.1 Decline in per Capita GDP Growth Following the Resource Boom xxxviO.1 Estimated Oil,Gas,Metals,and Mineral in Sub-Saharan Africa,by Year 7xiv AFricAS reSource FuTureO.2 Average Nonrenewable Resource

54、 Exports as a Share of Total Merchandise Exports and Average Resource Revenues as a Share of Total Government Revenues,by Region 10O.3 Giant Oil and Gas Field Discoveries,by Region and Decade,19502018 12O.4 Per Capita GDP Growth before,during,and after the Resource Boom 15O.5 Global Historical and P

55、rojected Poverty Headcount,19952030 17O.6 Total Poverty Headcount,Resource-Rich and Non-Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries,19952030 18O.7 Change in Gini Coefficient in Sub-Saharan African Countries,Preboom versus End of Boom 19O.8 Average Adjusted Net Savings as a Share of GNI and Average N

56、atural Resource Rents as a Share of GDP over the 200414 Boom Period in Sub-Saharan African Countries 22O.9 Indexed Worldwide Governance Indicators:Period Averages for Resource-Rich and Non-Resource-Rich African Countries 23O.10 Short-Term Growth Impact of Giant Hydrocarbon Discoveries 24O.11 Overopt

57、imism of Citizens about Macroeconomic Conditions and Living Standards after Hydrocarbon Discoveries 25O.12 General Government Gross Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa,by Type of Resource Endowment,2007,2013,and 2018 27O.13 Africas GDP-Weighted Employment Growth,by Subsector,Full Free Trade Agreement Long-Te

58、rm Scenario 32O.14 Fossil Fuel Use,by Resource and Scenario,2020,2030,and 2050 42O.15 Cobalt Exports from Sub-Saharan Africa 45O.16 Production Output,per Person,per Year,for Three Different Types of Platinum Group Metals Mines Owned by Anglo American 46O.17 Average Distribution of Human Capital betw

59、een Males and Females in Resource-Rich and Non-Resource-Rich Countries,Selected Regions,2018 491.1 Receipts from Natural Resources,by Country,200414 Average 631.2 Nonrenewable Resource Exports as a Share of Total Merchandise Exports,byRegion,200414 Average 631.3 Resource Revenues as a Share of Total

60、 Government Revenues,by Region,200414 Average 64conTenTS xv1.4 Sub-Saharan Africas Aggregate and per Capita Natural Wealth,19952018 671.5 Active Mineral Exploration Sites per Million Square Kilometers of Surface Area in Key Mining Jurisdictions,2017 681.6 Mineral Exploration Spending and Discovery V

61、alue,Select Countries and Regions,200716 691.7 World Mineral Exploration Expenditures,Select Countries and Regions,19752019 701.8 Mine-Site Value and Primary Mineral Value,by African Region 711.9 Number of African Mineral Discoveries,by Size of Deposit,19002019 721.10 Number of African Mineral Disco

62、veries,by Commodity,19002019 731.11 Number of African Mineral Discoveries,by Type of Exploration Company,19002019 741.12 Giant Oil and Gas Field Discoveries,by Region and Decade,19502018 761.13 Largest Giant Petroleum Discoveries for Host Country Economy,Net Present Value of Discovery Scaled by Shar

63、e of GDP,19602020 781.14 Actual and Projected Global Metals Demand from EV Lithium-Ion Batteries 851.15 Nonrenewable Resource Exports as a Share of Government Revenue,by Region 871.16 Changes to the Sub-Saharan African Mineral Commodity Export Structure across Main Importers,19952018 891A.1 Export S

64、upply and Import Demand Elasticities of the SSA Exporters to Main Importers Relative to the Rest of the World,by Chapter 931A.2 Effect of Energy Minerals in Sub-Saharan African Export Revenues 952.1 Government Revenues and Rents from Natural Resources,Select Sub-Saharan African Resource-Rich Countri

65、es,19902020 1022.2 Comparison of GDP and Nonresource GDP Growth Rates before,during,and after the Boom,Resource-Rich versus Non-Resource-Rich Countries 105xvi AFricAS reSource FuTure2.3 Annual Growth of Total Wealth per Capita in Sub-Saharan Africa,Period Averages 1062.4 Share of the Worlds Poor in

66、Resource-Rich and Non-Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries,19952030 1072.5 Total Poverty Headcount,Resource-Rich and Non-Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries,19952030 1082.6 Poverty Headcount in Sub-Saharan African Countries,2003 versus 2014 1092.7 Global Historical and Projected Pover

67、ty Headcount,19952030 1102.8 Gini Coefficients in Sub-Saharan Africa,Preboom(2003)versus End of Boom(2014)1112.9 Change in Gini Coefficient in Sub-Saharan African Countries,Preboom versus End of Boom 1122.10 Sectoral Composition of Sub-Saharan African Exports,Preboom,Boom,and Postboom Averages 1132.

68、11 Ratio of Resource GDP to Nonresource GDP in Sub-Saharan African Countries,19982003 versus 201418 Averages 1142.12 Export Diversification Index of Sub-Saharan African Countries,19982003 versus 200610 Averages 1152.13 Change in Total Wealth per Capita in Sub-Saharan African Countries,200414 1162.14

69、 Average Adjusted Net Savings as a Share of GNI and Average Natural Resource Rents as a Share of GDP over the 200414 Boom Period in Sub-Saharan African Countries 1182.15 Wealth Composition per Capita in Sub-Saharan Africa,2004 versus 2014 1202.16 Indexed Worldwide Governance Indicators:Period Averag

70、es for Resource-Rich and Non-Resource-Rich African Countries 1222.17 Change in Worldwide Governance Indicator Average Ratings,by Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Country,19982003 to 201518 1232.18 Short-Term Growth Impact of Giant Hydrocarbon Discoveries 1252.19 Overoptimism of Citizens about Macro

71、economic Conditions and Living Standards after Hydrocarbon Discoveries 1262.20 General Government Gross Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa,by Type of Resource Endowment,2007,2013,and 2018 1293.1 Africas GDP-Weighted Employment Growth,by Subsector,Full Free Trade Agreement Long-Term Scenario 142conTenTS xvii

72、3.2 International Transport Costs for All Modes of Transport,by Regional Average,19852014 1473.3 Gold Production at Acacias Bulyanhulu Mine in Tanzania,201621 1544.1 Fossil Fuel Use,by Resource and Scenario,2020,2030,and 2050 1834.2 Fossil Fuel Wealth,by Sub-Saharan African Country,2018 1854.3 Compo

73、sition of Operating Costs for Platinum Mines Worldwide,2018 1884.4 Monthly Platinum Prices,200822 1894.5 Evolution of the Share of Employment of the Extractive Sector in Sub-Saharan African Countries,Period Averages 1934.6 Resource Exports and Employment in the Resource Sector in Sub-Saharan African

74、 Countries,200414 Average 1934.7 Employment Share in the Extractive Sector,Global Benchmarking 1944.8 Production Output,per Person,per Year,for Three Different Types of Platinum Group Metals Mines Owned by Anglo American 1954.9 Employment in Formal versus Artisanal Mining in Sub-Saharan Africa,2017

75、196B4.1.1 African Mining Sectors Contribution to Exports and National Employment 197B4.1.2 Employment in South Africas and Zambias Mining Industries,by Occupational Category 1994.10 Renewable and Nonrenewable Natural Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa,19952018 2024.11 Renewable Natural Capital Compositio

76、n in Sub-Saharan Africa,by Asset,19952018 2044.12 Export Diversification Index of Sub-Saharan African Countries,19982003 versus 200610 Averages 2084.13 Average Adjusted Net Savings as a Share of GNI and Average Natural Resource Rents as a Share of GDP over the 200414 Boom Period in Sub-Saharan Afric

77、an Countries 2114.14 Distribution of Human Capital per Capita between Resource-Rich Countries and Non-Resource-Rich Countries,19952018 212xviii AFricAS reSource FuTure4.15 Average Distribution of Human Capital between Males and Females in Resource-Rich and Non-Resource-Rich Countries,Selected Region

78、s,2018 2134A.1 World Production of Nitrates,by Producer Market Share,1953 2164A.2 Nitrate Production in Chile,Germany,and the United Kingdom,191341 2174A.3 GDP per Capita in Chile,18002017 2184A.4 GDP per Capita:Selected Countries,Regions,and the World,18002018 218MapsES.1 Resource-Rich Countries in

79、 Sub-Saharan Africa during the Commodity Price Boom xxxvO.1 Resource-Rich Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Commodity Price Boom 6O.2 Giant Oil and Gas Field Discoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa,by Size,19582018 8O.3 Selected Metals and Mineral Deposits Discovered in Africa,19902019 9O.4 Raw M

80、ineral and Metal Export Restrictions in Sub-Saharan Africa,2020 361.1 The Changing Pattern of Resource-Rich Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 621.2 Selected Metals and Mineral Deposits Discovered in Africa,19902019 661.3 Evolution of the Number of Petroleum Producers in Sub-Saharan Africa,Preboom and

81、Postboom 753.1 Raw Mineral and Metal Export Restrictions in Sub-Saharan Africa,2020 1534.1 Tree Cover Loss in Africa,200414 206Tables1.1 Gross Mine-Site Value of Primary and Total Resources of Currently Operating African Mines 712.1 Natural,Produced,and Human Capital per Capita and Share in Total We

82、alth,Preboomand Postboom 119conTenTS xix3.1 The Extractive Sectors Contribution to Exports in Sub-Saharan African Countries 1403.2 Namibia:Export Levy Rates for Minerals,Gas,and Crude Oil Products 1443.3 Regional Performance on the“Getting Electricity”Component of Doing Business Score,2020 1493.4 Mo

83、st Restrictive Export Measure for Raw Minerals and Metals in Select Sub-Saharan African Countries,2020 1523.5 Number of Sub-Saharan African Countries with Export Restrictions on Raw Minerals and Metals,200920 1523.6 Overview of Employment and Training Local Content Policies in Sub-Saharan African Co

84、untries from the African Mining Legislation Atlas Database 1573.7 Minimum Quota of Guinean Employees,by Worker Category and Phase of Company Evolution 1633.8 Employment Equity Targets,South Africas 2010 and 2018 Mining Charter 1643.9 Overview of Local Procurement Local Content Policies in Sub-Sahara

85、n African Countries 1653.10 Local Content Policies and Challenges in Three West African Countries 1683.11 Prioritized Recommendations for Unlocking Benefits from the African Continental Free Trade Area 1754.1 Risks,Consequences,and Solutions for Key Challenges Facing Women in the Mining Industry 190

86、4.2 Women in Mining in South Africa,by Commodity,2019 1914.3 Total Number of Jobs in the Economy for Each Direct Job in a Sector or Industry,Select Countries 201xxiForewordIn this time of global upheaval and a rapidly changing climate,the econo-mies of Sub-Saharan Africa stand to benefit from vast e

87、ndowments in natural resources and the transition to a low-carbon economy.Global efforts to decar-bonize economies are likely to create demand for 3 million tons of minerals and metals needed to deploy solar,wind,and geothermal energy by 2050.Many of these minerals are founds in abundance across Afr

88、ica.Africas diverse metal and mineral deposits,such as cobalt,copper,lithium,manganese,and platinum,also play an important role in batteries and electronics.The World Bank has been a trusted partner for African countries embarking in the energy transi-tion,supporting them with increased financing co

89、mmitted to renewable energy projects and timely advice on reconciling climate and development goals across economic sectors.Africa has an opportunity to harness natural resource wealth to accelerate energy access and transition,drive economic transformation and jobs,and gen-erate more fiscal revenue

90、s.But how should policy makers make good on this promise and avoid the pitfalls of previous natural resource booms and busts?The question of good governance is central to Africas future.Its the differ-ence between resources captured today for immediate benefits and resources saved and invested to cu

91、shion against future crises;its the difference between aging energy infrastructure that fails to meet peoples needs and investing in new sources of energy to meet growing demand;and its the difference between wealth for the few and better prospects,living conditions,and resilience for the many.Altho

92、ugh many uncertainties remain,governments can adopt a proactive stance toward global decarbonization,automation,and regional integration by backing steps that will provide economic benefits under different scenarios.The Africas Resource Future report aims to lay out actionable policy recommenda-tion

93、s in these and other areas.xxii ForeworDFor example,we know that renewable energy will be part of the energy mix required to meet growing energy demand on the continent along with other forms of energy,like natural gas.Investing in related skills and value chains is a sound choice as countries phase

94、 out more polluting fossil fuels to meet their climate commitments.The African Continental Free Trade Area and greater regional trade and eco-nomic integration offer an unprecedented opportunity for developing the mine-to-market value chain within the continent,as resource-driven development becomes

95、 more feasible with greater access to larger markets and the ability to pool resources,skills,and comparative advantages.Reforming policy measures that currently limit opportunities for regional trade and integration is critical to retain more of the value of natural resources on the African contine

96、nt.Finally,this report comes at a time when governments are facing a deterio-rating macroeconomic environment rife with inflation and debt distress and struggling to accelerate energy access.Transparency and good governance in the energy and extractives sectors,including appropriate taxation,would g

97、o a long way to reverse the track record of past decades to ensure that African citizens reap more benefits from their countries underground wealth.A just transition for Africa,one that places people and the planet at the cen-ter,will depend on harnessing the economic benefits of oil,gas,and mineral

98、 resources in a responsible manner while preparing the regions economies for a low-carbon future.Economic transformation and diversification to support resilient economies is the best path toward achieving sustainable and inclusive development,but the contributions from Africas natural resources wil

99、l remain important in the years to come.Ousmane Diagana Regional Vice President for Western andCentral AfricaThe World Bank Washington,DCVictoria Kwakwa Regional Vice President for Eastern andSouthern AfricaThe World Bank Washington,DC xxiiiAcknowledgmentsThis volume is part of the African Regional

100、Studies Program,an initiative of the Africa Region Vice Presidency at the World Bank.This series of studies aims to combine high levels of analytical rigor and policy relevance,and to apply them to various topics important for the social and economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa.Quality control

101、 and oversight are provided by the Office of the Chief Economist of the Africa Region.The report was edited by James Cust and Albert Zeufack.Its preparation and background research were led by Boubacar Bocoum and James Cust in col-laboration with the Office of the Chief Economist of the Africa Regio

102、n and the Energy and Extractives Global Practice.The report builds on the work of many team members and academics.Contributors to the report comprise Mamadou Tanou Balde,Gracelin Baskaran,Boubacar Bocoum,Hannah Grupp,Pietro Guj,Pierre Mandon,Justice Mensah,Nneoma Nwogu,Alexis Rivera Ballesteros,Rich

103、ard Schodde,and Zainab Usman.The team is grateful for the technical inputs,background research,and expert guidance from Paul Collier,Shanta Devarajan,Clara Galeazzi,Marek Hanusch,Maty Konte,Arthur Mendes,David Mihalyi,Steven Penning,Sven Renner,Thomas Scurfield,Jevgenijs Steinbuks,Rick van der Ploeg

104、,Pierre Louis Vezina,and Rose Camille Vincent.The following peer reviewers and other experts provided valuable advice and feedback:Kevin Carey,Souleymane Coulibaly,David Mihalyi,Anders Pedersen,Grzegorz Peszko,and Sajjad Ali Shah.Abrah Desiree Brahima,Ken Omondi,and Rose Claire Pakabomba provided va

105、luable assistance throughout the preparation and writing of this book.The team is also thankful for the fund-ing support from the Extractives Global Programmatic Support(EGPS)Multi-Donor Trust Fund and the Africa Chief Economist Office.xxvAbout the editors and contributorsEditorsJames Cust is a Seni

106、or Economist in the Office of the Chief Economist for the World Banks Africa Region.His work focuses on the macroeconomics of natu-ral resources,climate change,and sustainable development.Previously,he led the World Banks Changing Wealth of Nations program.He also cofounded a network of African chie

107、f economic advisers to 40 African presidents as part of the Chief Economists of Government Initiative(AfricaCEOG.org).Custs work has been published in academic journals including the Journal of the European Economic Association,Energy Economics,Climate Policy,and others.His work has been covered in

108、The Economist,Nature,Reuters,the International Monetary Funds Finance and Development,and other publications.He was the Director of Research at the Natural Resource Governance Institute;before that he cofounded the Natural Resource Charter.He holds a DPhil in economics from the University of Oxford

109、and a BA in economics from the University of Cambridge.Albert Zeufack is the World Banks Country Director for Angola,Burundi,the Democratic Republic of Congo,and So Tom and Prncipe.Before that,he was the Chief Economist for the World Banks Africa Region(201622).Zeufack,a Cameroonian national,joined

110、the World Bank in 1997 as a Young Professional and started his career as a research economist in the macroeconomics division of the research department.Since then,he has held several positions in the World Banks Africa,East Asia and Pacific,and Europe and Central Asia Regions.While on leave from the

111、 World Bank(200812),he served as Director of Research and Investment Strategy/Chief Economist for Khazanah Nasional Berhad,a Malaysian Sovereign Wealth Fund.Zeufack holds a PhD in econom-ics from Centre dtudes et de Recherches sur le Dveloppement International(CERDI,University of Clermont-Ferrand,Fr

112、ance)and a masters degree in economic analysis and policy from the University of Yaound(Cameroon).xxvi About the editors And ContributorsContributorsMamadou Tanou Balde,Economist Consultant,World BankGracelin Baskaran,Economist Consultant,World BankBoubacar Bocoum,Lead Mining Specialist,World BankHa

113、nnah Grupp,Program Coordinator,World BankPietro Guj,Professor,University of Western AustraliaPierre Mandon,Economist,World BankJustice Mensah,Economist,World BankNneoma Nwogu,Senior Counsel,World BankAlexis Rivera Ballesteros,Economist Consultant,World Bank Richard Schodde,Managing Director,MinEx Co

114、nsultingZainab Usman,Senior Fellow and Director,Africa Program,Carnegie Endowment for International Peacexxviimain messagesA just transition for Africa will depend on successfully harnessing the economic benefits from oil,gas,and mineral resources while also preparing for a low-carbon future.Given t

115、he extent of natural resource abundance,this wealth can play a central role in economic transformation for Africas economic future.Resource revenues remain a key source of government financing,and in the majority of Sub-Saharan African countries resources dominate the economy.In addition,two decades

116、 of major petroleum and mineral discoveries mean that African economies will be utilizing resource wealth for years to come.However,several key megatrends will shape the coming decades for these resource-rich countries and their ability to benefit from commodity exports.Managing the low-carbon trans

117、ition.Over time,global decarbonization may lead to significant reductions in demand for Africas oil,gas,and coal resources.There may be a marked increase in demand for minerals required for the clean energy transition,such as lithium,cobalt,copper,platinum,manganese,and more,all found across Africa.

118、Mechanization and the digital transformation.Increasingly widespread automa-tion and digitalization,both in the extractive sector and across the value chain,pose challenges and opportunities for job creation and value addition.Although this automation and digitalization will likely lead to productiv

119、ity gains,it could also lead to rising capital intensity and lower job creation.Mitigation of environmental degradation.As new exploration for extractives continues,forested regions may come under additional pressure from economic activity.A low-carbon transition away from fossil fuels may dampen Du

120、tch disease effects in petroleum-exporting forested countries,increasing pressure on the forest from expanding traded sectors such as commercial agriculture.Managing broader structural challenges.Structural challenges are an inher-ent part of extraction,and managing them is essential,especially addr

121、essing xxviii AFricAS reSource FuTuredepletion and obsolescence risks and mitigating human capital distortions,as well as adapting to and minimizing Dutch disease.Given the economic scale of natural resources,they can be a central factor in determining countries growth and poverty alleviation succes

122、s.A central policy issue,therefore,is countries ability to manage the complications posed by extractives,particularly as they affect productivity and competitiveness in nonextractive sectors of the econ-omy,which can limit options for economic diversification.Key FindingsEstimates suggest that 80 pe

123、rcent of proven fossil fuel reserves must remain under the ground to meet Paris Agreement targets(Bos and Gupta 2019).However,the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is likely to create demand for 3 billion tons of minerals and metals needed to deploy solar,wind,and geothermal energy by 205

124、0.Lithium,cobalt,and vanadium are critical for energy storage,and copper,indium,selenium,and neodymium are essential for manufacturing wind and solar power generators.Africas natural resource wealth remains critical to its economic recovery.About a third of Africas stock of wealth is held in natural

125、 capital,including nonre-newable petroleum and mineral deposits(World Bank 2021).Furthermore,resource rents are estimated to account for 9 percent of resource-rich Africas GDP(World Bank 2021).These endowments place Africa in an excellent posi-tion to benefit from the clean energy transition,given t

126、hat resources such as cobalt,manganese,graphite,and lithium are central to new energy technolo-gies.However,the outcomes will depend on effective policy choices and the ability to attract new investment.Although resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa outpaced their non-resource-rich African c

127、ounterparts in average growth per capita during the most recent boom(200414),when commodity prices fell,growth collapsed.The non-resource-rich counterparts,in contrast,were able to sustain their growth in the years following the boom.Despite the increase in revenue and growth that resulted from the

128、boom,it failed to translate into corresponding levels of poverty reduction.Extreme pov-erty is increasingly concentrated among Sub-Saharan African countries rich in resources.By 2030,more than 80 percent of the worlds poor are predicted to live in Sub-Saharan Africa,and almost 75 percent of the poor

129、 in Sub-Saharan Africa will live in resource-rich countries(Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Zeufack2022).A staggering 62 percent of the worlds poor are projected tobe found in Sub-Saharan African resource-rich economies,up from 13 percent in 2000.mAin meSSAgeS xxixThe low carbon-transition has begun.Cou

130、ntries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo,South Africa,and Zambia are already key players,being major producers of copper,platinum,and cobalt,respectively.Four categories of technologies play a crucial role in the digital transformation of mining and metals:automation,robotics,and operational

131、hardware;a digi-tally enabled workforce;integrated enterprise,platforms,and ecosystems;and next-generation analytics and decision support.African countries per capita contribution to global climate change remains the smallest of any region.Urgent domestic economic and energy needs also indicate that

132、 fossil fuel production and consumption may continue to play a critical role.In particular,natural gas can be a source of export earnings and also a transition fuel deployed alongside renewable energy technologies.However,African governments can leverage global decarbonization to accelerate diver-si

133、fication,building resilience to external shocks and anticipating the decline in fossil fuel markets.Harnessing value from Africas subsoil assets should not come at the expense of the vast renewable natural capital,such as cropland,forests,water resources,and biodiverse ecosystems.However,the depleti

134、on of natural resources increased by about 150 percent during the boom.Total forest area fell by 2 percent,declining from an area of about 6.9million square kilometers in 2004 to about 6.5 million square kilometers in 2014(World Bank,World Development Indicators 2022).A just transition for Africa wi

135、ll depend on the countries harnessing the economic benefits from oil,gas,and mineral resources while also preparing for a low-carbon future.ReferencesBos,K.,and J.Gupta.2019.“Stranded Assets and Stranded Resources:Implications for Climate Change Mitigation and Global Sustainable Development.”Energy

136、Research&Social Science 56:101215.Cust,J.,A.Rivera-Ballesteros,and A.Zeufack.2022.“The Dog That Didnt Bark:The Missed Opportunity of Africas Resource Boom.”Working Paper 1012,World Bank,Washington,DC.World Bank.2021.The Changing Wealth of Nations:Managing Assets for the Future.Washington,DC:World Ba

137、nk.xxxiexecutive SummaryMinerals,oil,and gas account for a third or more of exports from most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa,and can reach similar shares of government revenues.The majority of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa can be categorized as resource rich,with more on the path to reaching this

138、 status given two decades of major new discoveries.Sub-Saharan Africa has large reserves of resources such as oil,gas,and minerals,but has struggled to convert this wealth into sustainable prosperity.During the last commodity price boom,which lasted from 2004 to 2014,eco-nomic growth accelerated to

139、record highs in the regions resource-rich countries.But this prosperity proved to be precarious and dependent on high commod-ity prices,and few African countries shifted away from being resource-driven economies during this period.Since the decline in commodity prices in 2014,resource-rich Sub-Sahar

140、an Africa has grown more slowly than the regions average growth rate,which is consistent with the“resource curse”hypothesis.The previous boom and bust in commodity prices in Sub-Saharan Africa resulted in missed opportunities for the regions resource-rich countries to con-vert their resource revenue

141、s into sustainable,diversified prosperity.This has led to slower economic growth and disappointing progress on poverty reduc-tion.By 2030,it is projected that more than 80 percent of the worlds poor will be in the Africa region,and almost 75 percent of the worlds poor will live in resource-rich coun

142、tries.As a result,global poverty eradication is becoming disproportionately a challenge faced mostly by resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.Africas natural resource wealth nonetheless harbors significant untapped economic potential.About one-third of the total stock of wealth in Sub-Sahara

143、n Africa is held in various forms of natural capital,including nonrenewable petro-leum and mineral deposits(World Bank 2021).Sub-Saharan Africa has seen xxxii AFricAS reSource FuTuremore major petroleum discoveries since 2000 than any other region of the world,accounting for 50 percent of all giant

144、discoveries in the 2010s(Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Mihalyi 2021).Nevertheless,many mining and petro-leum projects remain undeveloped.Buoyant commodity prices,if sustained,could be a major opportunity for new projects and thus for new sources of government revenues.Harnessing natural resources to d

145、rive economic growth is critical to Africas future.Subsoil assets such as metals,minerals,oil,and gas remain important sources of government revenue,export earnings,and economic development potential in most African countries.Resource deposits could last decades,with new discoveries happening every

146、year.Resource revenues continue to be a major source of government financing,and in most of Sub-Saharan Africa,resources make up a significant portion of the economy.To better mobilize these revenues for Africas economic transformation and achieve sustained growth,there are a series of policy choice

147、s that countries in the region should be considering for implementation(see box ES.1).BOX ES.1Policy RecommendationsCapture the full value of resource rents,subject to fiscal terms that attract investment and are robust to changing conditions.World Bank estimates put the rental value at 2.6 times th

148、e level of government revenues,on average,with wider variations in spe-cific countries.This implies that citizens are missing out on significant untapped reve-nues consistent with the same levels of investment,resulting in a substantial subsidy to production.This failure to fully capture rents encou

149、rages more fossil fuel production,and therefore more emissions,than would otherwise occur.Mining also results in envi-ronmental and social externalities not always fully borne by producers.Better taxation of extractives therefore offers a“double dividend,”for both people and the planet.Much more cou

150、ld therefore be done to invest in fiscal administration and to capture a greater share of resource rents.The international community could also play a support-ing role to governments in the region as part of their efforts to mitigate climate change as well as improve development outcomes.Manage stru

151、ctural challenges and prepare for the next boom-bust cycle.Policy makers in resource-rich countries may have more success working toward asset diversi-fication rather than export diversification.Asset portfolio diversification is an important step toward sustained growth and is more feasible for res

152、ource-rich countries to achieve than traditional export diversification because of pressure from Dutch disease(Cust and Rivera-Ballesteros 2021a).The Changing Wealth of Nations 2021 report(World Bank 2021)suggests that targeting asset portfolio diversificationinvesting in(continued next page)execuTi

153、ve SummAry xxxiiithe expansion of human and physical capitalinstead of export diversification may be a successful policy for sustainable economic growth.This recommendation builds on earlier work(Gill et al.2014;Peszko et al.2020)exploring the benefits of portfolio diversification.However,to achieve

154、 asset diversification,countries must successfully transform the proceeds from resource extraction into other kinds of productive assets.Beware the presource curse.Countries need to be mindful of policies that are con-sistent with managing expectations and ensuring fiscal sustainability,tempering th

155、e pressure to borrow and spend ahead of revenues.Discoveries can leave countries exposed if they are not prepared for declining prices.This is especially true where global decarbonization may imply both declining fossil fuel prices in the future and higher variation of natural resource prices due to

156、 mismatched supply and demand.Debt distress and sharp resource-induced recessions can cause more economic reversal than the positive value of the boom.Improve the sustainability of the economy using revenues from the resource sector.To move from negative to positive adjusted net savings,governments

157、need to invest in human capital,including education and health;produced capital,particularly infra-structure;and natural capital such as forests,cropland,and nature-based tourism.Revenues generated from the mining and petroleum sectors can be used to finance these forms of capital.Support the transi

158、tion to automation and mechanization.Given the expected decline in mining jobs resulting from mechanization,identifying new ways to increase employment opportunities is critical.The demographic dividend will translate into a sharp increase in the size of the workforce,and harnessing this workforce w

159、ithin the mining sector will require strengthening the foundation of basic education.Creating and implementing skills-development programs aligned with both mechanization and diversified economic activities to absorb the decline in labor demand resulting from mechanization is important.Although mech

160、anization results in substantially higher productivity and revenue,it has a strong impact on local labor dynamics.Governments need to improve educational outcomes for communities around mines and develop a strong foundation in math and the sciences to ensure students are better prepared for a techno

161、logy-intensive world.Reconsider plans to implement or increase tariffs related to extractives regional value chains.Under the African Continental Free Trade Area,members must phase out 90 percent of tariff lines over the next 510 years,while another 7 percent deemed to be sensitive will get some add

162、itional time.As a first point of implementation,this means that no new tariffs should be erected.Countries can go further and seek to minimize new tariffs and reduce existing ones relating to promoting the development of extractives-linked value chains at the regional level across Africa.Unfortunate

163、ly,much extractive sector policy today is formulated in national rather than regional terms.Box ES.1(continued)(continued next page)xxxiv AFricAS reSource FuTureBox ES.1(continued)Undertake regional harmonization of mining taxes and royalties.Tax harmonization has three components:an equalization of

164、 tax rates,a common definition of national tax bases,and uniform application of agreed-on rules(Mansour and Rota-Graziosi 2013).The lack of harmonized tax policy can undermine regional integration,even with the establishment of a customs union,a common market,and a monetary union(IMF 2015).Harmonize

165、d tax rates remove tax distortions and prevent competition for capital.Tax competition can foment a race to the bottom,which does not benefit any country given the reduction in tax revenue.Harmonizing tariffs and royalties requires rigid implementation,including coordination and surveillance.A power

166、ful first step would be the creation of a common floor rate.Main FindingsSub-Saharan Africa has experienced increasing,not declining,resource abundance.Today there are markedly more resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa than there were at the turn of the twenty-first century,and the number i

167、s trending even higher because of new discoveries every year.By one definition(IMF 2012),the number of resource-rich countries rose from 18 out of 48 before the boom to 26 out of 48 countries by the end of the boom.Map ES.1 shows the countries categorized as resource richa majority of Sub-Saharan Af

168、rica countries.This trend was caused by a combination of new discoveries,new production,and rising resource prices that pushed up levels of resource abundance and resource dependence and pulled more countries into this resource-rich grouping.Multiple discoveries in the past four decades have more th

169、an doubled the existing oil and gas reserves in the region.In the opposite direction,limited success in diversifying their economies away from resource dependence resulted in few countries exiting this grouping.Climate change will shift the resource paradigm.Estimates suggest that 80 percent of prov

170、en fossil fuel reserves must remain under the ground to meet carbon-reduction targets(Bos and Gupta 2019).The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is likely to create demand for 3 billion tons of minerals and metals needed to deploy solar,wind,and geothermal energy by 2050(World Bank 2020a).

171、This low-carbon energy transition will increase demand for many of the resources found in abundance across the region.Lithium,cobalt,and vanadium,for example,are critical for energy storage,and copper,indium,sele-nium,and neodymium are essential for the production of wind and solar power generators.

172、Nonetheless,significant untapped potential remains.Africas natural resource wealth remains an important part of its economic recovery given its execuTive SummAry xxxvdeep reserves and untapped investment potential.About one-third of Sub-Saharan Africas stock of wealth is held in various forms of nat

173、ural capital,including nonrenewable petroleum and mineral deposits,which reached more than US$5 trillion during the boom years(World Bank 2021).Furthermore,resource rents are estimated to account for 9 percent of resource-rich Sub-Saharan Africas GDP(World Bank 2021).However,this figure far exceeds

174、rev-enues captured by governments,with rents on average 2.6 times higher than revenues.This finding implies that countries may be failing to capture their full share of rents.Map ES.1 Resource-Rich Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Commodity Price BoomSource:Based on IMF(2012).Note:Resource

175、-rich countries are defined in IMF(2012)as low-income,lower-middle-income,or upper-middle-income countries that had either natural resource revenue or exports equating to at least 20 percent of total fiscal revenue or exports,respectively,over the period 200610,including countries with identified re

176、serves but where production has not begun or has not reached significant levels.Countries where the main type of natural resource is oil or gas are in blue.Countries where the main type of natural resource is minerals and metals are in orange.South Sudan is not included in the IMF(2012)resource-rich

177、 country classification.Fossil fuel richNorth Africa and South SudanMineral richNon-resource richxxxvi AFricAS reSource FuTureAlthough still relatively underexplored,the African continent already hosts a large proportion of the worlds mineral resources.These endowments place Africa at the center of

178、the clean energy transition,given that resources such as cobalt,manganese,graphite,and lithium are central to clean energy technology.The legacy from Africas commodity price boom and bust was one of missed opportunity.Countries squandered the opportunity available during the boom years,and therefore

179、 were poorly prepared for the drop in commodity prices.Many had failed to save and invest a sufficient proportion of resource revenues to grow national wealth via the accumulation of offsetting assets dur-ing the boom.As a consequence,the bust period saw collapsing growth and a reversal of economic

180、gains made during the boom.Several resource-rich coun-tries even entered debt crises after 2014.During this bust period(201520),there was also a more general pattern of resource-rich countries experienc-ing slumps in GDP growth,with rates falling below those of the rest of Africa(figure ES.1).Povert

181、y concentration in resource-rich Sub-Saharan Africa has substan-tially increased,a trend likely to continue;meanwhile,inequality remains persistent.Despite the increase in revenue that resulted from the boom,extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated among resource-rich Sub-Saharan African countri

182、es.Because of the backsliding since the fall in commodity prices begin-ning in 2015,poverty has been rising again in resource-rich countries.By 2030,more than 80 percent of the worlds poor are forecast to live in the Sub-Saharan Figure ES.1 Decline in per Capita GDP Growth Following the Resource Boo

183、mSource:Based on World Bank data 2022.Note:GDP per capita growth by group.RR=resource rich;SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa.Rest of the world RR=countries outside Sub-Saharan Africa that meet the same threshold for resource richness.110234SSA RRSSA non-RRRest of the world RRPercentPreboom(19982003)Boom(200414

184、)Postboom(201520)execuTive SummAry xxxviiAfrican region,and almost 75 percent of the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa will be located in resource-rich countries(Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Zeufack 2022).In absolute terms,by 2030 the poverty headcount in resource-rich Africa is projected to rise to about 3

185、79 million,whereas the count in non-resource-rich Africa is set to fall to less than 120 million.Taken together,a staggering 62percent of the worlds poor are projected to be found in Sub-Saharan African resource-rich economies,up from 13 percent in 2000.In comparison,by 2030,only 20 percent will be

186、in non-resource-rich African countries(Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Zeufack 2022).There has been a failure to facilitate economic diversification.Headline economic performance during the boom was strong but proved unsustainable.This result reflects the overall dominance of the resource sector as a dr

187、iver of growth,but also implies a failure to translate the boom into broader-based economic prosperity.The starkest evidence for an unsustainable and narrow economic boom was seen in the slump in growth rates following the fall in commodity prices.In the postboom period,annual GDP per capita growth

188、in resource-rich countries was,on average,2.5 percentage points lower than dur-ing the boom,and 1.5 percentage points lower than in non-resource-rich coun-tries in the region(Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Zeufack 2022).Many countries“consumed”the boom.Unlocking the mining value chains economic potenti

189、al from regional integration and the African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCFTA)is a huge opportunity.The AfCFTA brings together 54 African countries with a total population of more than 1 billion people and a combined GDP of more than US$3.4 trillion(World Bank 2020b).If successfully implemented,it

190、 will enable countries to deepen their linkages to regional and global value chains.The AfCFTA established the worlds largest free trade zone and has the potential to unlock an estimated US$3.2 trillion in intra-Africa trade.The AfCFTA offers an unprecedented opportunity to develop the mine-to-marke

191、t value chain within the continent.Although many countries have prioritized local beneficiation,few have the capacity to wholly undertake it domestically.If implemented effec-tively,the AfCFTA would allow various countries to specialize in select parts of the value chain,and parts of the value chain

192、 could move between participating countries free of tariffs.Tariff barriers in the extractive sector impeded implementation of the AfCFTA.As countries seek to increase their benefits from the mining sector amid mounting fiscal pressure and high levels of unemployment,many have turned to mineral-base

193、d industrialization strategies that include an increase in tariffs or that are at odds with a single-market approach.Nontariff barriers are adversely affecting the competitiveness of regional mining value chains.Nontariff barriers(NTBs)remain a key roadblock to xxxviii AFricAS reSource FuTureactuali

194、zing the benefits of the AfCFTA.NTBs are restrictive regulations and procedures,other than tariffs,that increase the difficulty and cost of importing and exporting products.Research by UNCTAD shows that NTBs are at least three times as restrictive as standard customs duties and suggests that African

195、 countries would increase GDP by US$20 billion by tackling these NTBs at a continental level.Although article 4 of the AfCFTA Agreement states that“The State Parties shall progressively eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade in goods,”research published by Fitch Ratings in 2021 suggests

196、that the removal of NTBs under the AfCFTA is likely to lag behind the agreements ambitions,limiting its impact.Transportation and logistics costs are dispropor-tionately high compared with those in other developing countries.According to the UNCTAD(1999)report,in 31 out of 43 Sub-Saharan Africa coun

197、tries,freight costs on imports are 50 percent higher than the average for developing countries.Likewise,improving access to,and the cost of,electricity infrastruc-ture can strengthen linkage development.Affordable and reliable energy is critical for developing a comparative advantage in manufacturin

198、g inputs or processing ores.Africas resource future depends on navigating key megatrends,includ-ing the low-carbon transition.Although fully phasing out global oil,gas,and coal markets is likely to take decades,the transition period poses significant,but uncertain,risks for fossil fuel exporters in

199、Africa.On the other hand,demand for metals and minerals could rise to supply the low-carbon economy.For those countries rich in certain metals and minerals,the prospects may be rosier(IEA2021).The demand for fossil fuels is expected to significantly decline over the coming decades.Depending on the p

200、ace of technological and policy changes,this decline could put permanent downward pressure on fossil fuel prices and threaten African countries ability to benefit from their carbon-based resource wealth;they run the risk of becoming stranded nations(Cust,Manley,and Cecchinato 2017).However,price sig

201、nals from the oil and gas market still support development of many new assets.For the governments and citizens of Africa,the imperative is to be prepared for a range of futures,assuming both more drastic climate action and the curbing of fossil fuel demand in keeping with net-zero commitments called

202、 for by the Paris Agreement,but also a more gradual phasing out of oil consump-tion at the global level.Although little can be done to reduce the“belowground”risk contained in undeveloped and unextracted fossil fuels,many policy choices can increase or decrease the“aboveground”risk exposure.Examples

203、 explored in this report include how much state capital is to be invested in nationally owned fossil fuel companies,fossil fuellinked jobs and industries,or sovereign wealth funds holding fossil fuel company stocks.The medium-to long-term outlook for mineral exploration and mining on the African con

204、tinent appears positive.Renewed foreign direct investment execuTive SummAry xxxixin mineral exploration and development is likely to be boosted by the projected significant growth in demand for minerals from energy technology(World Bank 2020a),fueled by the metal-intensive transition to green energy

205、.Indeed,the mineral demand projections under a 1.5-to 2-degree Celsius temperature constraint scenario represent highly significant increments above an already-substantial projected increase in demand due to continuing growth in world population and its migration to urban areas,seeking ever-increasi

206、ng living and environmental standards.Mechanization and digitalization will have profound impacts on pro-ductivity and labor.The speed of digital technology adoption in the mining sector is accelerating.Four categories of technologies will play a crucial role in the digital transformation of mining

207、and metals:automation,robotics,and operational hardware;a digitally enabled workforce;integrated enterprise,plat-forms,and ecosystems;and next-generation analytics and decision support.Firms are choosing to mechanize to maintain profitability amid supply and demand shocks(Baskaran 2021).Mechanizatio

208、n improves cost-competitive-ness by increasing productivity,but also reduces jobs.Levels of automation in the region vary.For example,in Southern Africa,Botswana and South Africa have a higher degree of mechanization,whereas Zambia and Zimbabwe still largely rely on labor-intensive mines.Environment

209、al degradation is accelerating and could get worse.The depletion of natural resources in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by approximately 150percent during the boom,and in the regions resource-rich countries,deple-tion of natural resources increased by more than 190 percent.Total forest area fell by 2

210、percent,declining from an area of about 6.9 million square kilometers in 2004 to 6.5 million square kilometers in 2014.Nonetheless,Sub-Saharan Africa countries per capita contribution to global climate change remains the smallest of any region.African governments can take steps to leverage global de

211、carbon-ization to accelerate the diversification of their economies,building resilience to external shocks,and anticipating the eventual decline in fossil fuel markets.The link between resource extraction and forest loss is more complex than clearance that can occur around extraction sites.New resea

212、rch suggests that the amount of resource exports,and consequently the degree of Dutch disease a country expe riences,can affect the amount of deforestation.Increased defor-estation is driven by the impact on relative prices of resources and agricultural goods in coun tries where agricultural expansi

213、on may encroach on the forest.This mechanism,dubbed“Amazonian disease”by Cust,Harding,and Rivera-Ballesteros(forth coming)because it was first measured in Brazil,suggests that falling oil exports or falling oil prices can increase the competitiveness of agri-culture in the same country and thus incr

214、ease the amount of forest loss,as seen,for example,in the period following falling oil prices beginning in 2015.This implies that global decarbonization could weaken the forces of Dutch disease xl AFricAS reSource FuTurein oil-exporting countries,and because many countries in Africa are abundant in

215、forests,forest clearance may be accelerated via improving agricultural com-petitiveness.Given the significant overlap between oil-exporting countries and tropical forests across Sub-Saharan Africa,this could have major unintended consequences as the region decarbonizes without carefully configured p

216、olicy interventions.Managing structural challenges will require new policy approaches.The future of African economic transformation depends on the ability to increase productivity and generate jobs and income,including in export-oriented sec-tors beyond commodity exports.However,achieving these incr

217、eases under the condition of resource richness has proved to be challenging.There are three pri-mary human capital distortions in resource-rich countries.First,the resource sector reallocates human capital away from some high-productivity sectors.Second,the distribution of human capital between men

218、and women is more unequal in these nonrenewable-resource-rich countries compared with other countries.Third,human capital is skewed toward the public sector in resource-rich countries.These characteristics may contribute to,and be associated with,lower overall worker productivity arising from resour

219、ce dependence.ReferencesBaskaran,G.2021.“Firms Approach to Mitigating Risks in the Platinum Group Metals Sector.”Mineral Economics 34(3):38598.Bos,K.,and J.Gupta.2019.“Stranded Assets and Stranded Resources:Implications for Climate Change Mitigation and Global Sustainable Development.”Energy Researc

220、h&Social Science 56:101215.Cust,J.,T.Harding,and A.Rivera-Ballesteros.Forthcoming.“Tropical Deforestation and Terms of Trade Shocks.”World Bank,Washington,DC.Cust,J.,D.Manley,and G.Cecchinato.2017.“Unburnable Wealth of Nations.”Finance and Development 54(1).https:/www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/

221、2017/03/cust.htm.Cust,J.,and A.Rivera-Ballesteros.2021a.“The Nonrenewable Wealth of Nations.”In Changing Wealth of Nations 2021:Managing Assets for the Future,193223.Washington,DC:World Bank.Cust,J.,A.Rivera-Ballesteros,and D.Mihalyi.2021.“The Economic Effects of Giant Oil and Gas Discoveries.”In Gi

222、ant Fields of the Decade:20102020;AAPG Memoir 125.American Association of Petroleum Geologists,2135.Cust,J.,A.Rivera-Ballesteros,and A.Zeufack.2022.“The Dog That Didnt Bark:The Missed Opportunity of Africas Resource Boom.”Working Paper 1012,World Bank,Washington,DC.Fitch Ratings.2021.“African FTA Gr

223、owth Impact Too Small to Affect Ratings.”Fitch Ratings,January 7,2021.https:/ SummAry xliGill,I.S.,I.Izvorski,W.van Eeghen,and D.De Rosa.2014.Diversified Development:Making the Most of Natural Resources in Eurasia.Washington,DC:World Bank.IEA(International Energy Agency).2021.“The Role of Critical M

224、inerals in Clean Energy Transitions.”World Energy Outlook Special Report,IEA,Paris.https:/www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions.IMF(International Monetary Fund).2012.“Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries.”Policy Paper,Internat

225、ional Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.https:/bit.ly/2txKGzB.IMF(International Monetary Fund).2015.“Options for Low-Income Countries Effective and Efficient Use of Tax Incentives for Investment.Report to the G20 Development Working Group.”IMF,Washington,DC.Mansour,M.,and G.Rota-Graziosi.2013.“Tax Coordin

226、ation,Tax Competition,and Revenue Mobilization in the West African Economic and Monetary Union.”Working Paper 13/163,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.Peszko,G.,D.van der Mensbrugghe,A.Golub,J.Ward,C.Marijs,A.Schopp,J.Rogers,and A.Midgley.2020.Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizi

227、ng World:Climate Strategies for Fossil FuelDependent Countries.Washington,DC:World Bank.UNCTAD(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development).1999.“Investing in Transport Is an Investment in Africas Future.”Press Release,October 20,1999.https:/unctad.org/press-material/investing-transport-inves

228、tment-africas-future.World Bank.2020a.Minerals for Climate Action:The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition.Washington,DC:World Bank Group.World Bank.2020b.The African Continental Free Trade Area.Economic and Distribution Effects.Washington,DC:World Bank Group.World Bank.2021.The Changing

229、 Wealth of Nations:Managing Assets for the Future.Washington,DC:World Bank.xliiiAbbreviationsAfCFTA African Continental Free Trade AreaAIF ASEAN Infrastructure FundAMLA African Mining Legislation AtlasASEAN Association of Southeast Asian NationsDT digital transformationEITI Extractive Industries Tra

230、nsparency Initiative EV electric vehicleGDP gross domestic productILO International Labour OrganizationIMF International Monetary FundLCP local content policyLDCs least-developed countriesNTB nontariff barrierOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentRECs regional economic communiti

231、esSADC Southern African Development CommunitySMEs small and medium enterprisesSOE state-owned enterpriseUNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentWTO World Trade OrganizationAll dollar amounts are US dollars unless otherwise indicated.1overviewThe Untapped Economic Potential of Sub-Sa

232、haran Africas Oil,Gas,and Mineral ResourcesAfrica is blessed with significant wealth in natural resources.The continent is home to an abundance of resources,including diamonds,gold,oil,natural gas,uranium,platinum,copper,cobalt,iron,bauxite,and silver,among oth-ers.Minerals,oil,and gas account for a

233、 third or more of exports from most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and can reach similar shares of government revenues.The majority of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa(26 out of the 48countries in the region defined by the World Bank)are now categorized as resource rich according to the Internationa

234、l Monetary Fund definition(IMF 2012),with more on the path to reaching this status given recent discoveries.Despite large and growing reserves,converting subsoil wealth into sustain-able prosperity has met with limited success.During the last commodity price boom,lasting from about 2004 to 2014,reso

235、urce-rich countries saw economic growth accelerate,rising by an average of 1 percentage point compared with earlier years.This was,however,short-lived,with growth rates slowing with fall-ing commodity prices from 2015on average,2.5 percentage points lower than during the boom.The boom years were a g

236、olden decade of rising revenues and new investments,but this prosperity proved precarious and dependent on high commodity prices.Few African countries shifted away from resource-driven economies during this period.Since the decline in commodity prices in 2014,resource-rich Africa has grown more slow

237、ly than the regions average growth rate,a finding consistent with the“resource curse”hypothesis.The legacy of the previous boom and bust was one of missed opportunity,where significant resource revenues were generally not converted into sustain-able,diversified prosperity.This poor growth record is

238、matched by disappointing 2 AFricAS reSource FuTureprogress on poverty reduction.By 2030,more than 80 percent of the worlds poor will be found in the Africa region,and almost 75 percent of the worlds poor will be located in resource-rich countries.Taken together,62 percent of the worlds poor will be

239、found in Sub-Saharan African resource-rich countries.Poverty eradication is therefore becoming a disproportionately resource-rich country and Africa region problem.Sub-Saharan Africas natural resource wealth nonetheless holds signifi-cant untapped economic potential.About one third of Sub-Saharan Af

240、ricas total stock of wealth is held in various forms of natural capital,including nonrenewable petroleum and mineral deposits(World Bank 2021).In petroleum,Sub-Saharan Africa has seen more major discoveries since 2000 than any other region of the world,accounting for 50 percent of all giant discover

241、ies in the 2010s.Before the boom period there were 14 petroleum-producing countries(7 major and 7 minor producers).After the boom period,the number of petroleum producers increased to 22(10 major and 12 minor producers).Nevertheless,many mining and petroleum projects remain undeveloped.Some languish

242、 after years of investment delays and complications,while many more deposits have yet to see firm investment commitments.Buoyant com-modity prices,if sustained,could be a major opportunity for new projects and thus for new sources of government revenues.Harnessing natural resource wealth to drive ec

243、onomic transformation is central to Africas economic future.Subsoil assets such as metals,minerals,oil,and gas remain key sources of government revenues,export earnings,and development potential across the majority of countries in the Africa region(AfDB 2018).Resource revenues remain a key source of

244、 government financ-ing,and in the majority of Sub-Saharan African countries resources dominate large shares of the economy.Between 2004 and 2014,natural resource reve-nues accounted for about 26 percent of total government revenues in Africa and 30 percent of government revenues in resource-rich cou

245、ntries in Africa(UNU-WIDER 2022).The extractive sector is well placed to support the economic recovery phase that the Africa region now faces.COVID-19(coronavirus)and the associated debt challenges in many African countries highlighted the need to mobilize increased domestic revenues.To achieve nati

246、onal development goals,as well as Agenda 2030,1 it will be essential for resource-rich countries to find ways to avoid the pitfalls of the last boom-and-bust cycle,and to effectively harness resources for sustainable and inclusive development.Several key megatrends will shape the coming decades and

247、resource-rich countries ability to benefit from commodity exports.This period will require resilience,not just to commodity price cycles,but to other external shocks and structural changes.overview 3Managing the low-carbon transition.Over time,global decarbonization may lead to significant declines

248、in demand for Africas oil,gas,and coal resources.The timing and scale remain uncertain,however.Meanwhile,there may be a marked increase in the demand for minerals required for the clean energy tran-sition,such as lithium,cobalt,copper,platinum,and manganese,many of which are found in abundance acros

249、s Africa.A just transition for Africa will depend on the countries harnessing the eco-nomic benefits from oil,gas,and mineral resources while also preparing their economies for a postpetroleum future.Economic transformation and diversifi-cation,alongside significant progress on poverty alleviation,i

250、s the best path to achieving this development vision.Mechanization and the digital transformation.Increasingly widespread auto-mation and digitalization,both in the extractive sector and throughout parts of the value chain,pose new challenges but also opportunities for job creation and value additio

251、n.Although this automation and digitalization will likely lead to productivity gains,it could also lead to rising capital intensity and lower job creation.Countries may need to reconsider how best to derive benefits from the sector,particularly in the context of high population growth.Mitigation of

252、environmental degradation,which has run rampant amid accelerating deforestation.As new exploration for extractives continues,for-ested regions may come under additional pressure from economic activity.Furthermore,a low-carbon transition away from fossil fuels may dampen Dutch disease effects in petr

253、oleum-exporting forested countries,increasing pressure on the forest from expanding traded sectors such as commercial agriculture.Managing broader structural challenges that are an inherent part of extraction,notably addressing depletion and obsolescence risks,mitigating human capital distortions,an

254、d minimizing Dutch disease.Resource-rich countries are becom-ing increasingly numerous in the region,and this trend will continue at least in the short term.Thus,core poverty-alleviation and growth challenges will center on countries ability to manage the complications posed by extractives,par-ticul

255、arly as they affect productivity and growth in nonextractive sectors of the economy.This is a hurdle for the majority of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.Four main policy messages emerge from the findings in this report.Governments must grapple with these challenges,drawing insights from both the suc

256、cesses and failures of resource-rich countries around the world.First,harness the full value of resources for development.This means taxing the sector effectively to capture a greater share of rents without deterring suf-ficient investment.It also implies investing these revenues into the economy to

257、 accumulate productive capital in the form of infrastructure,an educated work-force,and a healthy,productive environment including land,water,and forests.Doing so will help ensure that growth rates are robust and will help countries avoid the resource curse.Capturing a greater share of resource rent

258、s also implies 4 AFricAS reSource FuTurereducing any implicit subsidy to production and thereby lowering global emis-sions.This is particularly important when taxing fossil fuels:capturing more revenues for government ensures a double dividend for both development and the climate.Second,manage expec

259、tations to ensure fiscal sustainability.Avoiding the pre-source curse,where countries can find themselves in debt distress or facing low growth even before production of resources begins,means tempering the pres-sure to borrow and spend ahead of revenues.Discoveries have been found to unleash powerf

260、ul forces that can shape policy but leave countries exposed if they are not prepared for declining prices.This risk is especially true where global decarbonization may imply both declining fossil fuel prices in the future and higher variation in all kinds of natural resource prices because of mis-ma

261、tched supply and demand.Third,embrace megatrends such as regional integration,the low-carbon transi-tion,and mechanization and digitalization in the resource sector,as opportuni-ties to break with the past.These megatrends explored in this report offer new horizons for Africas resource-rich economie

262、s.How the next two decades evolve will largely be a function of whether policy makers are able to navigate these trends effectively,while learning the lessons of the past.New trends mean new winners and new losers.They therefore put a premium on policy decisions that can find new ways to leverage re

263、source wealth.This includes embracing regional integration to eliminate tariff and nontariff barriers in favor of building new regional value chains and country specialization,rather than doubling down on nationally defined local content and beneficiation.It also includes making the investment envir

264、onment more responsive to ensure countries can capture market share for metals,minerals,and even fossil fuels such as natural gas,that may experience more demand during the low-carbon transition.It may also mean leveraging gradual mechanization and automation of the resource sector to improve produc

265、tivity,while investing in a skilled and educated workforce that is not dependent on some of the lower-skilled jobs that may be displaced.Change brings challenge,but there is reason to be optimistic that many of these trends can work in favor of Africas resource-rich economies.Fourth,navigate a devel

266、opment path consistent with the pressures of Dutch dis-ease.This means that conventional export-led diversification may prove challeng-ing while resources make up a major share of the economy.Instead,countries should seek to invest in assets rather than in traded sectors.Wealth accounting can help g

267、uide these choices.This strategy calls for investing in assets that can be useful to many sectors of the economysuch as power,transport,educated workers,and a sustainable environment.Dutch disease also implies that forests may be protected as long as resource exports remain high.Accelerating global

268、decarbonization may therefore endanger tropical forests in Sub-Saharan Africa as declining fossil fuel demand weakens Dutch disease,and the agriculture sector overview 5may become increasingly competitive.Policy makers in Africa should be mindful of,and prepare to mitigate,the so-called Amazonian di

269、sease,in which declining export value of petroleum may lead to more deforestation(Cust,Harding,and Rivera-Ballesteros,forthcoming).This implies that the global low-carbon transi-tion may have unanticipated consequences and challenges.Finding 1:Resource Abundance in Africa is Increasing,Not Declining

270、Today there are markedly more resource-rich countries in Sub-Saharan Africa than there were at the turn of the twenty-first century,and the number is trending even higher because of new discoveries every year.By one defini-tion(IMF 2012),the number of resource-rich countries rose from 18 out of 48 b

271、efore the boom to 26 out of 48 countries during and after the boom.Map O.1 shows the countries categorized as resource rich,which is a majority of Sub-Saharan African countries.2 This trend was caused by a combination of new discoveries,new production,and rising resource prices pushing up levels of

272、resource abundance.Figure O.1 illustrates how multiple discoveries in the past four decades have more than doubled the existing oil and gas reserves in the region.(Most giant oil and gas fields have been discovered offshore,while metal and mineral deposits have been discovered throughout the contine

273、nt;see map O.2 for oil and gas and map O.3 for metals and minerals.)In the opposite direction,limited success in diversifying their economies away from resource dependence resulted in few countries exiting this grouping.If the same IMF condition is applied to regions using aggregated values,Sub-Saha

274、ran Africa and the Middle East and North Africa would be considered the worlds two resource-rich regions(figure O.2).A high level of resource abundance often translates into significant revenues for government to manage.Governments are designated as the custodians of subsoil wealth on behalf of citi

275、zens,and therefore a significant portion of the proceeds from resource extraction must accrue to government on this basis.Some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have received as much as 80 percent of their revenues from natural resource extraction.The regional average is one of the highest in the worl

276、d,reaching almost 30 percent of government rev-enues from resources during the 200414 commodity price boom.Resources also constitute a significant share of exports in Sub-Saharan Africa,exceeding 50 percent of export value during the last boom(figure O.2).In both cases the region ranks second in the

277、 world behind the Middle East and North Africa.Finding 2:Climate Change Will Shift the Sub-Saharan African Resource ParadigmAs the world moves away from fossil fuels,abiding by the commitments it made under the Paris Agreement,the subsoil wealth of African economies may be 6 AFricAS reSource FuTureF

278、ossil fuel richNorth Africa and South SudanMineral richNon-resource richMap O.1 Resource-Rich Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Commodity Price BoomSource:Based on IMF 2012.Note:Resource-rich countries are defined in IMF(2012)as low-income,lower-middle-income,or upper-middle-income countrie

279、s that had either natural resource revenue or exports equating to at least 20 percent of total fiscal revenue or exports,respectively,over the period 200610,including countries with identified reserves but where production has not begun or has not reached significant levels.Countries where the main

280、type of natural resource is oil or gas are in blue.Countries where the main type of natural resource is minerals and metals are in orange.South Sudan is not included in the IMF(2012)resource-rich country classification.at risk.Estimates suggest that 80 percent of proven fossil fuel reserves must rem

281、ain under the ground to meet targets(Bos and Gupta 2019).On the other hand,the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is likely to create demand for 3 billion tons of minerals and metals needed to deploy solar,wind,and geothermal energy by 2050(World Bank 2020a).This low-carbon energy transi-t

282、ion will increase demand for many of the resources found in abundance across the region.Lithium,cobalt,and vanadium,for example,are critical for energy storage,and copper,indium,selenium,and neodymium are essential for the production of wind and solar power generators.On a promising note,research on

283、 trade elasticity shows that Sub-Saharan African hydrocarbon producers face lower demand import elasticity compared overview 7with the rest of the world,which implies that hydrocarbons have the potential to remain an important source of export revenues over the short to medium term.However,because g

284、lobal oil and gas demand may begin to decline permanently as the global energy transition progresses,Sub-Saharan African hydrocarbon-producing countries will need to adapt to new market conditions and anticipate the challenges ahead.For the moment,however,they still have some time to manage an order

285、ly transition away from fossil fuels and use revenues to spur economic diversification.On the other hand,the same evidence points to limited historical supply elasticity among African minerals producers,implying that African economies 50607040302010Barrels of oil(billions)30035040025020015010050Natu

286、ral gas(terajoules,millions)4062200420062008200162018Oil(left scale)Natural gas(right scale)a.Oil and natural gas cumulative reserves010090Indexed reserves(2014=100)20222020152014CobaltCopperManganeseb.Selected m

287、etal and mineral cumulative reservesFigure O.1 Estimated Oil,Gas,Metals,and Mineral in Sub-Saharan Africa,by YearSources:Panel a:Calculations based on World Bank 2021.Panel b:Based on S&P Global Market Intelligence.Note:Reserve estimates do not include reserves depletion.8 AFricAS reSource FuTure500

288、2,500 MMBOE(giant)2,5004,999 MMBOE(giant)5,00025,000 MMBOE(supergiant)25,00049,999 MMBOE(supergiant)50,000 MMBOE(megagiant)Map O.2 Giant Oil and Gas Field Discoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa,by Size,19582018Source:Based on Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Mihalyi 2021.Note:MMBOE=million barrels of oil equi

289、valent,a unit used to measure the size of an oil or gas deposit discovery.The locations of the discovered fields are approximated;therefore,the location accuracy may vary and could be greater than one degree.may need to improve the investment responsiveness and enabling environment to capture the ma

290、ximum upside from increasing demand for metals and miner-als.Failure to do so runs the risk that other regions will capture market share and new investments.Finding 3:Significant Untapped Potential RemainsAfricas natural resource wealth remains an important part of its eco-nomic recovery given its d

291、eep reserves and untapped investment potential.Approximately one-third of Africas stock of wealth is held in various forms of natural capital,including nonrenewable petroleum and mineral deposits(World Bank 2021).Furthermore,resource rents are estimated to account for 9percent of resource-rich Afric

292、as GDP(World Bank 2021).However,this figure exceeds Overview 9BauxiteCobaltCopperGoldGraphiteIronLithiumNickelPGEUraniumZincZirconMap O.3 Selected Metals and Mineral Deposits Discovered in Africa,19902019 Source:Based on MinEx Consulting Africa Minerals Database 2020.Note:The map includes discoverie

293、s in North Africa.PGE=platinum group elements.captured government revenues by 2.6 times,implying that countries may be failing to capture their full share of rents.3Although still relatively underexplored,the African continent already hosts a large proportion of the worlds mineral resources.These mi

294、nerals include,besides precious platinum group elements(59 percent of total world resources)and diamonds(48 percent),a dominant position in ferroalloy metals such as cobalt(75 percent),manganese(68 percent),graphite(59 percent),and unde-veloped resources of lithium(Guj et al.,forthcoming).These endo

295、wments place Africa at the center of the clean energy transition,given that resources such as cobalt,manganese,graphite,and lithium are central to clean energy technology.Current production levels still lag in a number of African countries,despite their having some of the worlds largest resource end

296、owments.For example,graphite,which is one of the most important components of lithium batter-ies,is relatively underexploited in several Sub-Saharan African countries,10 AFricAS reSource FuTure%of merchandise exports706050403020100Middle East andNorth AfricaSub-SaharanAfricaLatin America andthe Cari

297、bbeanSouth AsiaNorth AmericaEurope andCentral AsiaEast Asiaand PacificMetals and mineralsFossil fuels27.318.214.99.413.868.352.5a.Fossil fuel and metals and minerals as a share of total merchandise exports,200414 average%of total governmentrevenues6050403020100Middle East andNorth AfricaSub-SaharanA

298、fricaLatin America andthe CaribbeanSouth AsiaNorth AmericaEurope andCentral AsiaEast Asiaand Pacific25.914.25.50.00.054.029.6b.Resource revenues as a share of total government revenues,200414 averageFigure O.2 Average Nonrenewable Resource Exports as a Share of Total Merchandise Exports and Average

299、Resource Revenues as a Share of Total Government Revenues,by RegionSource:Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Zeufack 2022.Note:Panel a shows the 200414 average of fossil fuels,metals,and minerals exports as a share of each regions total merchandise exports.Panel b shows the 200414 average of natural resour

300、ce revenues as a share of total government revenues.This share is calculated as the 200414 average of the sum of natural resource revenues of all countries with nonmissing data for each region,divided by the regions sum of total government revenues(resource plus nonresource revenues).The dashed blue

301、 line in each panel denotes the International Monetary Fund criteria for resource richness(natural resource revenue or exports at least 20 percent of total fiscal revenue or exports,respectively)applied to the boom period.overview 11particularly Tanzania.Despite having the fifth-largest reserves in

302、the world,Tanzania was ranked twenty-first in global graphite production in 2018.In comparison,India(with half of Tanzanias reserves)and Norway(with 30 times smaller reserves)are ranked sixth and eighth in production,respectively.The regions abundant mineral deposits also offer significant explorati

303、on opportunities.Sub-Saharan African countries are still relatively unexplored compared with other regions of the world(McKinsey 2013).In 2017,the total number of active mineral exploration sites in Africa was estimated at 282,approximately half the number of sites as in Australia and Canada,despite

304、 the region having more than triple the surface area.A driving factor behind the disproportionately low number of active mines is the level of exploration expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa.Despite being the most profitable region in exploration terms,with the value of discoveries as a ratio of expl

305、oration costs of about 0.8,Sub-Saharan African countries mining exploration spending between 2007 and 2016 was lower than that in any other region(Schodde 2017).Sub-Saharan Africas ratio of 0.8 is significantly higher than Australias(0.5),Canadas(0.6),or Latin Americas(0.3).Although Africa has rich

306、endowments,between 2009 and 2018,it only attracted 14 percent of the worlds total exploration expenditure(US$10 billion of US$140 billion spent in the world).Globally,exploration expenditures declined substantially after the last com-modity boom.Exploration expenditure declined by 58 percent,from US

307、$34.9 billion in 2012 to US$11.2 billion in 2016(Schodde 2019).This decline largely resulted from heightened uncertainty within the commodities sector.The out-look for exploration investment in the medium term is more positive,given that commodity prices have increased significantly because of new i

308、nfrastruc-ture programs in countries such as China and the United States coupled with momentum from the clean energy transition.Oil has accounted for more than 30 percent of total wealth in Sub-Saharan African resource-rich countries,including Chad,the Republic of Congo,and Gabon;however,this is sti

309、ll significantly less than in some resource-rich comparators outside Africa,where average oil wealth can exceed 50 percent(World Bank 2021).There are both major producers,defined as those that produce an average of more than 100,000 barrels per day,and minor produc-ers,those that average less than 1

310、00,000 barrels per day of production.Before the boom period there were 14petroleum-producing countries(7 major and 7 minor producers)in Africa.After the boom period,the number of petroleum producers increased to 22(10 major and 12 minor producers).Figure O.3 shows that during the 200414 commodity bo

311、om the largest share of giant petroleum discoveries was concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa,which led to an increase in petroleum production in the region.12 AFricAS reSource FuTureMajor new discoveries of oil and gas have the potential to transform many Sub-Saharan African economies;however,not all

312、discoveries move quickly into production.Research points to three challenges countries have faced(Mihalyi and Scurfield 2021).First,discoveries did not always proceed to generate pro-duction and national wealth.So far,only 8 out of 12 countries that found large oil and gas deposits have had finds th

313、at have proved to be commercially viable.The initial finds in the other four countriesGuinea-Bissau,Liberia,So Tom and Prncipe,and Sierra Leoneturned out to be dry wells or of low value and were abandoned.Second,the time from discovery to effective production and exploitation has been longer than ex

314、pected.The initial forecast of the discovery-to-exploitation process was estimated to be 6.2 years for the 12 Sub-Saharan African countries,reevaluated to 11 years,on average.For example,oil fields(Block 1,Block 2,and Block 3)in Uganda are now projected to be exploited between 15 and 17 years after

315、discovery,a significant increase over the 3 to 5 years in initial forecasts.Third,there is a major shortcoming in mobiliza-tion of forecasted revenue.In the 3 Sub-Saharan African countries that reached production,receipts collected were 63 percent lower than initially projected.EAPECALACMENASSAShare

316、 in world discoveries(%)6050403020606999201018Figure O.3 Giant Oil and Gas Field Discoveries,by Region and Decade,19502018Source:Based on Cust,Rivera-Ballesteros,and Mihalyi 2021.Note:The share of giant discoveries by decade and region is calculated by counting the g

317、iant discoveries by region in each decade and dividing by the total number of giant fields discovered in that decade in the world.Geographic regions are as defined by the World Bank:EAP=East Asia and Pacific;ECA=Europe and Central Asia;LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean;MENA=Middle East and North A

318、frica;SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa.overview 13Policy RecommendationsPolicy makers have significant new opportunities to harness the untapped resource potential in Africa.By supporting clear and consistent approaches to sector policies,they can promote new investment to capture upside potential from new di

319、scoveries and exploration.First,capture the full value of resource rents,subject to fiscal terms that attract investment and are robust to changing conditions.World Bank estimates put the rental value at 2.6 times the level of government revenues,on average,with wider variations in specific countrie

320、s.This implies not only that citizens are missing out on significant untapped revenues consistent with the same levels of investment,but also that a significant subsidy is provided to production.This is bad for both countries and,in the case of subsidizing petroleum extraction,the climate.Capturing

321、the full value of fossil fuel extraction will move closer toward imposing the true social cost of petroleum extraction,thus helping reduce global emissions.In practice some combination of royalties and taxes on profits,or equivalent nontax instruments,can be used to ensure maximum and efficient rent

322、 capture for the government and its citizens.Countries should avoid and minimize tax incentives and design fiscal terms that can feasibly be administered and moni-tored,avoiding unnecessary complexity.Making fiscal terms robust to changing conditions,such as price cycles,also reduces the need,and pr

323、essure,to revise them frequently in response to external factors.Second,set clear and consistent fiscal and social agreements in law,rather than negotiating them contract by contract,to help create policy stability,thereby pro-moting investment.For example,in 2020,72 percent of mining firms surveyed

324、 through the Fraser Institute stated that uncertainty regarding the administra-tion,interpretation,and enforcement of existing regulations was a mild deter-rent,strong deterrent,or a reason that they would not pursue investment in South Africa(Yunis and Aliakbari 2020).Third,develop policies that he

325、lp ensure firms internalize their social and sus-tainability costs from exploration to mine and well closure.A primary reason that governments develop policies that can be perceived as punishing resource companies is because of the substantial negative externalities resource firms generate,historica

326、lly and at present,including pollution,health consequences for workers and communities,infrastructure damage,and irreversible land damage.These costs should ideally be covered by the firms that profit from resource exploration.However,these costs should be built into legislation and the agreements t

327、hat firms and governments enter into so that there is also policy clarity and stability,as discussed in the previous recommendation.Fourth,strengthen the governance and transparency of the sector.Various gov-ernance frameworks have been developed that provide useful benchmarks for policy makers to m

328、easure themselves against.Adoption of frameworks such 14 AFricAS reSource FuTureas the Natural Resource Charter and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative(EITI)can help countries enhance disclosure and policy practices.The EITI standard requires information along the extractive value chai

329、n,including extraction,rent transfer,and how it benefits the public.Widespread adoption of the EITI,as well as accompanying standards such as routine contract disclosure,can reduce information asymmetry and help develop a mechanism to promote trust and collaboration.Other norms can be pursued that p

330、romote competition and transparency,such as budget transparency,debt transparency,competitive license allocation processes,open procurement,and reforms to the governance of national resource companies.The Legacy and Lessons from Africas Commodity Price Boom and BustThe experiences of different econo

331、mies during Africas last commodity price boom-and-bust cycle can yield insights relevant to todays policy makers.Rising commodity prices once again put Africas resource wealth at the center of eco-nomic decisions,and how these choices are made will determine the outcomes for a generation of Africans

332、.The previous commodity price boom from 2004 to 2014 was a huge eco-nomic opportunity for African countries abundant in oil,gas,and minerals.During this period,government revenues swelled and economic growth also rose considerably.Resource-rich countries saw,on average,economic growth during the boo

333、m years that was almost 1 percentage point higher than before the boom,driven by resource exports and increased government revenues(figure O.4).However,even during these bountiful times,economic develop-ment was largely confined to the resource sector.Once GDP growth contri-bution from the expanding resource sector is subtracted,overall economic performance was not significantly higher than in the