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1、JOBS SERIESIssue No.32Raphaela Karlen and Friederike RotherConfronting Challenges and Creating Opportunities for More Good Quality Jobs for AllDIAGNOSTICTOGOPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedRaphaela Karlen and Friederike
2、RotherConfronting Challenges and Creating Opportunities for More Good Quality Jobs for AllDIAGNOSTICTOGO 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The WorldBank.1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA.Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org.Some rights reservedThis work i
3、s a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the a
4、ccuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Rights and Permis
5、sionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the follo
6、wing conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:Karlen,Raphaela and Friederike Rother(editors),2023.“Togo Jobs DiagnosticConfronting Challenges and Creating Opportunities for More Good Quality Jobs for All.”WorldBank,Washington,DC.Regional Vice President:Ousmane DiaganaGlobal Director:Mic
7、hal RutkowskiRegional Director:Dena RingoldCountry Director:Coralie Gevers Country Manager:Fily SissokoPractice Manager:Christian BodewigTask Team Leaders:Friederike Rother and Raphaela KarlenTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attr
8、ibution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along wit
9、h the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe WorldBank does not necessarily own each co
10、mponent of the content contained within the work.The WorldBank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely w
11、ith you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and lic
12、enses should be addressed to WorldBank Publications,The WorldBank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.vACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe Togo Jobs Diagnostic team was led by Raphaela Karlen and Friederike Rother(editors).The editors led Chapter 1:Introducti
13、on,Chapter 4:Conclusions and policy recommendations,and the overall report.Lead authors and contributors for the thematic chapters are as follows:Stephanie Brunelin and Ulrich Zombr led Section 2.1:Growing labor supply faces significant underemploy-ment and important gender and location disparities.
14、Urbain Thierry Yogo and Marc Stocker led Section 2.2:An economy that creates jobs,but not in sufficient quantity and quality.Dino Merotto,Theresa Osborne,Maho Hatayama and Mario Gronert conducted data analyses that fed into the chapter.The authors were supported by Ernest John Sergenti,Nicholas Wool
15、ley and Amevi Rocard Kouwoaye.Raphaela Karlen led Section 2.3:Formal labor demand remains limited due to low entry rates of new enterprises and the creation of few new jobs.Dino Merotto,Theresa Osborne,Maho Hatayama and Mario Gronert conducted data analyses that fed into the chapter.Frdric Meunier,K
16、aliza Karuretwa and Julie Saty Lohi helped contextualize the findings of the chapter.Clment Joubert,Himanshi Jain and Raphaela Karlen led Section 3.1:Non-poor informal workers can be vulnerable to shocks and represent the“missed middle”those not covered by social protection.The Deep Dive benefitted
17、from inputs from Melis Guven,Mariam Noelie Hema and Montserrat Pallares-Miralles.Raphaela Karlen and Gabriel Lawin led Section 3.2:The economy is dominated by informal firms,ranging from subsistence businesses to well-established highly productive businesses.Wendy Cunningham provided valuable guidan
18、ce in developing and refining the cluster analysis methodology applied in the deep dive.Paula Cerutti and Guillaume Kroll led Section 3.3:An agricultural sector with a high potential to create good quality jobs on and off the farm.Erick Abiassi and Douti Bessokoh provided comments to refine the deep
19、 dive.The editors also wish to acknowledge comments and contributions received by Sara Johansson de Silva,Joachim Boko,Aissatou Ouedraogo,and Felicien Accrombessy.Moreover,the team thanks Cynthia Cindric and Aldo Morri for editorial support,and Alexandra Romanova for the visual design and typesettin
20、g of the report.Ulrich Zombr provided valuable support to the team in finalizing the Diagnostic and proofreading the French version of the report.Last but not least,Sbastien Tamegnon,Sharlen Vigan,Nadia Zenia Amoudji-Agnegue and Mariam Denise Brain provided excellent support to the team throughout t
21、he preparation of the report and the accompanying dialogue with counterparts.The team is grateful for strategic guidance received by Coralie Gevers,Fily Sissoko,Hawa Ciss Wagu,Christian Bodewig and Jehan Arulpragasam.The authors would also like to thank Wendy Cunningham,Phillippe George Leite and Yo
22、onyoung Cho(concept stage)and Wendy Cunningham,Vincent Palmade and Siv Tokle(decision stage)for their review,comments and guidance.The preparation of the report would not have been possible without the financial and technical support by the Togo office of GIZ(Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale
23、Zusammenarbeit).The editors wholeheartedly thank Andr Roenne and Sika Ekouhoho for their support and strong collaboration in preparation of this report.The Togo Jobs Diagnostic has been shaped by an ongoing dialogue with Togolese authorities and private sector representatives,including through a ser
24、ies of technical meetings with a multisectoral committee led by the Coalition Nationale pour lEmploi des Jeunes(CNEJ)to discuss preliminary results of the different chapters of the Diagnostic.The team is further grateful to the Presidents office and the different sector ministries for their inputs d
25、uring the consultation process.Also,preparing the Diagnostic would not have been possible without the support of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques et Dmographiques(INSEED)that shared data,which the team greatly acknowledges.viiTABLE OF CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTSvABBREVIA
26、TIONSixEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11.INTRODUCTION92.MULTISECTORAL JOBS DIAGNOSTIC152.1 GROWING LABOR SUPPLY FACES SIGNIFICANT UNDEREMPLOYMENT AND IMPORTANT GENDERAND LOCATION DISPARITIES152.2 AN ECONOMY THAT CREATES JOBS,BUT NOT IN SUFFICIENT QUANTITY AND QUALITY 322.3 FORMAL LABOR DEMAND REMAINS LIMITED DUE
27、 TO LOW ENTRY RATES OF NEW ENTERPRISESAND THE CREATION OF FEW NEW JOBS413.DEEP DIVES613.1 NON-POOR INFORMAL WORKERS CAN BE VULNERABLE TO SHOCKS AND REPRESENT THE“MISSED MIDDLE”THOSE NOT COVERED BY SOCIAL PROTECTION 623.2 THE ECONOMY IS DOMINATED BY INFORMAL FIRMS,RANGING FROM SUBSISTENCE BUSINESSES
28、TO WELL-ESTABLISHED HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE BUSINESSES693.3 AN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL TO CREATE GOOD QUALITY JOBS ONAND OFF THE FARM 774.CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 87REFERENCES95ANNEX A:CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT ELASTICITIES97ANNEX B:METHODOLOGY OF THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF INFOR
29、MALBUSINESSES99ANNEX C:SUBSIDIZED EMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS108ixABBREVIATIONSAGETAssociation des Grandes Entreprises du Togo,Association of Large Firms in TogoAMUAssurance Maladie Universelle,Universal Health InsuranceANPEAgence Nationale de Promotion de lEmploi,National Employment Promotion AgencyBCEAO B
30、anque Centrale des Etats de lAfrique de lOuest,Central Bank of West African StatesCCITChambre de Commerce et de lIndustrie du Togo,Chamber of Commerce and Industry of TogoCNEJCoalition Nationale de lEmploi des Jeunes,National Coalition for Youth EmploymentCNSSCaisse Nationale de Scurit Sociale,Natio
31、nal Social Security FundCPICorruption Perceptions IndexCPSDCountry Private Sector DiagnosticCRTCaisse de Retraites du Togo,Pension Fund of Togo DGEDirection Gnrale de lEmploi,General Directorate on EmploymentDJEJDirection de la Jeunesse et de lEmploi des Jeunes,Directorate on Youth and Youth Employm
32、entEHCVM Enqute Harmonise sur les Conditions de Vie des Mnages,Harmonized Survey on Household LivingConditions EJVEmployment Opportunities for Vulnerable Youth project ERI-ESI Enqute Rgionale Intgre sur lEmploi et le Secteur Informel,Integrated Regional Employment and Informal Sector Survey FCFAFran
33、c de la Communaut Financire Africaine,Franc of the African Financial CommunityFSBFilets sociaux et Services de Base,Safety Net and Basic ServicesGDPGross Domestic ProductGIZDeutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale ZusammenarbeitGoTGovernment of TogoILOInternational Labor Office INSEEDInstitut Nationa
34、l de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques et Dmographiques,Institute of National Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies LICLow-income countryMALRDMinistry of Agriculture,Livestock and Rural DevelopmentMEFMinistry of Economy and FinanceMIPMinistry of Investment PromotionMITLCMinistry of
35、Trade,Industry and Local ConsumptionMSMEMicro-,Small and Medium EnterprisesOLSOrdinary Least SquaresPURS Programme dUrgence pour la Rgion des Savanes,Emergency Program for the Savanes regionxQUIBB Questionnaire des Indicateurs de Base du Bien-tre,Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire SDGsSustainable
36、Development GoalsSEZSpecial Economic ZoneSMESmall and Medium EnterprisesSSASub-Saharan AfricaTVETTechnical and Vocational Education and Training WAEMUWest African Economic and Monetary Union1EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Togos jobs challenges remain important,despite progress made in creating more good quality
37、jobs since 2000.Togo has made significant progress in creating more good quality jobs,with robust growth performance in the past decade,the beginning of a structural transformation process,output shifting slowly out of agriculture and into services,and employment starting to shift into services.Howe
38、ver,several jobs-related challenges remain.Togos job market is still marked by low productivity,high levels of informality and slow structural transformation,reflected in the large share of underemployment and low-quality jobs.Industry is in the early stages of development;it needs time and the righ
39、t policy environment to grow.This jobs challenge is compounded by demographic trends,as the working age population is growing with youth entering the labor market with higher education levels at a time of weak labor demand.Furthermore,during the COVID-19 pandemic,reduced demand for Togolese exports
40、has put jobs and incomes in sectors dependent on international trade at risk,including tourism,transport and logistics,manufacturing and agro-processing.A sharp rebound in global trade contributed to a recovery in 2021,but disruptions associated with Russias invasion of Ukraine created renewed headw
41、inds in 2022,which adversely impacted key sectors of the economy and dampened households purchasing power.Good quality jobs are key to accelerating poverty reduction and enhancing social cohesion in Togo.Following a decade of significant progress in reducing poverty,the COVID-19 pandemic and of Russ
42、ias invasion of Ukraine are likely to have reversed some of these gains in living standards,however.The creation of more good quality jobs plays a key role in any countrys poverty reduction efforts,and will be essential to recover from recent shocks and reinforce earlier gains made in Togo.Internati
43、onal research also points to lack of economic opportunities and insufficient social services as key drivers of radicalization of young people.Security threats in the northern region of the country have been growing,with terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso close to the Togolese border increasing in num
44、ber and severity since 2018,and a first attack reported on Togolese territory in November 2021 in the Savanes region.Access to good quality jobs with a stable income for young Togolese will thus also be part of the solution to the security threats.Jobs outcomes can be evaluated across three dimensio
45、ns:job creation,quality of jobs and access to jobs.Improving jobs outcomes of the Togolese population encompasses not only the creation of more jobs,but also improving the quality of existing jobs and ensuring those with additional constraints to access jobs are not left out.New jobs can be created
46、through the creation of new firms(this includes those who start a business on their own,without any paid employees),as well as the creation of new jobs in existing businesses.The number of jobs,however,says little about their quality:job quality is a function of their productivity and earnings level
47、s,as well as social protection services to protect workers against income and job losses.Finally,working towards better jobs outcomes for the Togolese economy as a whole also requires a more throughout understanding of additional constraints that different population groups face to access good quali
48、ty jobs.This notably includes youth,women and rural populations.Government policies and programs are fragmented and do not yet embrace a multisectoral,long-term vision to achieve better jobs outcomes.Addressing Togos jobs challenge requires a multisectoral approach.While the policies and programs of
49、 different sector ministries touch upon the creation of more jobs and access 2to these jobs by youth,women and rural populations,coordination is limited,and programs and actors are fragmented.In term of national development objectives and programs,the Feuille de Route Gouvernementale 20202025 marks
50、an important shift towards encouraging private sector development and attracting private investments and was developed while Togo was making important progress in improving its business climate.Despite this recent shift towards a private sector-driven development path,further attention to address we
51、ak overall economic demand and labor demand-side constraints,as well as stronger leadership in coordinating different government actors and consolidating programs,is necessary to support a more targeted approach to tackle the countrys jobs challenges.To inform a multisectoral Jobs Strategy for Togo,
52、the Jobs Diagnostic applies a data-driven,multisectoral approach to the countrys jobs challenges.The Jobs Diagnostic not only describes trends but also analyzes drivers of economic transformation at the macro level.It looks at sources of job creation and ways to increase the productivity of jobs to
53、boost labor demand and it examines constraints to positive labor market outcomes,including skills(mis-)match,labor market frictions,and constraints on the supply side of the labor market.The Jobs Diagnostic builds on the latest available datasets,which date from before the COVID-19 pandemic,includin
54、g the Enqute Harmonise sur les Conditions de Vie des Mnages(EHCVM)20182019;the Questionnaire des Indicateurs de Base du Bien-tre(QUIBB)2006 and 2011;the Enqute Rgionale Intgre sur lEmploi et le Secteur Informel(ERI-ESI)2017;the World Bank Enterprise Survey 2011 and 2016;World Development Indicators
55、2020;data from the Centre de Formalit des Entreprises(CFE);World Bank Ease of Doing Business data points(not using the World Banks Ease of Doing Business Index);and Penn World Table data(version 10).Whenever sufficient data is available,Togos situation is compared to its structural(Benin,Guinea,and
56、Sierra Leone)and aspirational peers(Ghana,Morocco,and Rwanda).These data provide a rich characterization of labor markets in Togo,but represent pre-COVID-19 times,and thus likely present a more positive picture than the current state.The development of the Diagnostic was accompanied by ongoing consu
57、ltations with a multi-sectoral technical committee chaired by the Coalition Nationale de lEmploi des Jeunes(CNEJ).In collaboration with the CNEJ,which works under the responsibility of the Haut Conseil de lEmploi des Jeunes chaired by the Prime Ministers Office,the World Bank supported the establish
58、ment of a multisectoral technical jobs committee chaired by the CNEJ.Members of the technical committee include the Ministry of Economy and Finance;the National Institute of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies;sector ministries and their agencies working on jobs-related issues;private se
59、ctor representatives;and development partners.Between April 2021 and January 2023,nine technical meetings took place to present and discuss the objectives and the approach applied under the Diagnostic and the preliminary findings from different sections of the Diagnostic.Additional consultations wer
60、e conducted with the Presidents office between November 2022 and January 2023 to finalize this report.The Jobs Diagnostic is part of a two-year analytical program co-financed by the World Bank and the Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)to support the Government of Togo as it
61、develops a multisectoral strategy on jobs.The analytical program consists of the Jobs Diagnostic,an in-depth value chain study,and technical assistance to the government to develop a multisectoral jobs strategy.The in-depth value chain analysis is a continuation of the previous stream of work betwee
62、n the World Bank and GIZ that allowed identification of high potential value chains for better jobs outcomes for youth and women.It applies an integrated approach to jobs in the agricultural sector by conducting an in-depth analysis of selected value chains,simultaneously assessing constraints on,an
63、d opportunities for,better jobs outcomes for youth and women at the macro level,while also exploring constraints and opportunities in the areas of labor supply and demand.The two analytical pieces serve as basis for World Bank technical assistance to the Government of Togo as it develops its first m
64、ultisectoral Jobs Strategy.310 key facts emerge from the results of the Togo Jobs Diagnostic,as follows:1While Togos employment rate is high,many are working low productive jobs with meager earnings.The employment rate among Togos population is high,yet many jobs entail low productivity and earnings
65、.Togos employment rate is high and stands at 76 percent.Between 2006 and 2018,the employment rate remained stable except for those aged 15 to 24,whose employment rate decreased in parallel to an increase in education levels.Indeed,the share of individuals aged 15-24 still in school grew strongly fro
66、m 26 percent to 38 percent.Women make up the great majority of individuals that are neither in education,nor participating in the labor market:75 percent of inactive people are women,whose main obstacle to employment is domestic work.Amid the high employment rate,underemployment is a major issue in
67、Togo.Underemployment is often linked to jobs that are insecure,require few qualifications,and provide relatively little remuneration.It reflects inadequate duration of work,that is,less than 35 hours per week.Underemployment is widespread at 61 percent,concerns women and those in rural areas the mos
68、t,and affects all forms of employment:it stands at 51 percent among salaried workers and 57 percent among the self-employed.Underemployment is more prevalent in the agricultural sector than in other sectors of the economy.77 percent of people working in agriculture are affected by underemployment,re
69、flecting that agricultural activities are seasonal and only last for a few months,whereas activities related to services and industry can be carried out throughout the year.2Unemployment in Togo is low and affects mostly educated youth in urban areas who can afford to wait for the right job opportun
70、ity.Unemployment remains low,not least because large parts of the population have no choice but to work to earn a living.The unemployment rate is very low(1.7 percent in 2018)and has halved since 2006(4 percent).Unemployment has always been higher in urban than in rural areas.It affects mostly young
71、,urban people with high education in the more affluent segments of society(4th and 5th quintile),who can afford to wait for“the right job opportunity”to join the labor market.Togo is no exception:Benin recorded unemployment at 1.4 percent in 2018,Guinea at 5.0 percent in 2019,and Sierra Leone at 4.7
72、 percent in 2014.These figures should not be interpreted as good outcomes;rather,given insufficient social protection,the poor cannot afford not to work.Seeking employment is not without cost and depends on the ability of jobseekers to finance a period of unemployment,either from personal savings or
73、 family support.As a result,the majority of job seekers and workers have no choice but to accept any form of occupation,often with low pay and under difficult working conditions.3The majority of Togolese,including non-poor,have no access to social protection.Large parts of the population are not cov
74、ered by any kind of social protection.Social protection instruments help households scope with shocks affecting employment and earnings,and protect them against consequences from sickness and old-age.Togos social protection system,like those of many low-and middle-income countries,is designed for fo
75、rmal sector workers(through the contributory CRT and CNSS),and also includes programs directed to the poor(through a non-contributory cash transfer and school canteen programs).However,safety net programs in practice reach very few13 percentof the poor and vulnerable.Moreover,there exists no social
76、protection instrument to reach out to non-poor segments of the informal sector,although they account for 44.4 percent of the population,and up to 58.6 percent in Lom Commune.Referred to as the“missed middle”of social protection,these groups risk falling into poverty if confronted with a shock impact
77、ing their economic wellbeing.Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,the Government of Togo has displayed innovation and political will in providing social protection to the“missed middle”:the Novissi program provided 4digital emergency cash transfers to informal workers most affected by the pandem
78、ic,and a 2021 bill established universal health coverage,independent of employment and welfare status.The informal non-poor population displays varying levels of resilience.Some 4.5 percent of Togos population lived in a non-poor non-resilient household in 2018:following a shock,they had to resort t
79、o negative coping mechanisms harmful to their productivity and human capital.Another 39.9 percent lived in a non-poor resilient household,as they were either not confronted by shocks,or had the capacity to self-insure by using accumulated savings,receiving help from relatives,working more,or getting
80、 a loan.The most common types of shocks households reported were health and family events(injuries and deaths of family members),and shocks to farming income and natural disasters.The level of resilience of non-poor households is indicative of their contributory capacity:non-resilient households are
81、 unlikely to have income to spare for contributions to protect themselves against shocks.Resilient households,on the other hand,do have a contributory capacity that could be leveraged for innovative savings schemes.The level of resilience in the informal sector is likely to be lower now than in 2018
82、,reflecting the severe negative welfare impact of the pandemic and subsequent global economic instability.4Togos economy has created jobs but not with sufficient quantity andespeciallyquality.Togos economy has created jobs in the past,but not in sufficient number and quality to significantly improve
83、 the jobs outcomes for its population.While the structure of Togos economy has shifted gradually from agriculture to services over the past two decades,employment in low-productivity sectors still dominates the landscape.The primary sectors share of employment has declined from 48 percent in 2001 to
84、 38 percent in 2019,which has been met with a similar increase in services.Over the same period,total employment increased by 2.8 percent,mainly due to an increase of workers in the industry sector,as well as high and stable employment growth rates in the services sector,and a decline of annual job
85、creation rates in the agricultural sector.Moreover,informality is a dominant feature of Togos labor market,with about 90 percent of workers active in the informal sector as of 2017,contributing to an estimated 35 percent of GDP.Economic growth is linked to some job creation,with differences across d
86、ifferent periods.Between 2001 and 2019,each percentage point of additional GDP growth was associated with a 0.6 percentage point increase in employment.Employment growth was strongest from 2001 to 2007,which surprisingly is the period with the weakest economic growth.This implies that a significant
87、share of employment growth was due to an increase in labor supply rather than gains in productivity.Also,the analysis shows that a one percentage point increase in GDP growth over the period 20062018 increased waged employment by only 0.1 percent,which could imply that a sizeable share of the jobs c
88、reated are not productive.5Togos economy needs to grow fast to create more,and more productive jobs,requiring substantive reforms.Amid all the employment challenges that the country is facing,the labor force keeps growing,with large groups of young people with higher education levels entering the la
89、bor market every year.This will require the economy to considerably step up the creation of new jobs.The age structure of the Togolese population changed moderately between 2001 and 2019,due to declining fertility combined with increasing life expectancy;the total fertility rate fell from 5.4 births
90、 per woman in 2001 to 4.2 in 2019,while life expectancy increased by about 7.5 years.Over the same period,the dependency ratio(the share of children below 15 and old-age population above 65)fell from 85.6 percent to 78.2 percent.The falling dependency ratio could create a demographic dividend that w
91、ould spur economic growth,but this requires creating jobs fast enough to keep up with the significant increase in the working age population.5Given its increasing working-age population,Togo will need to create an additional one million jobs by 2030.To achieve that,growth would need to average at le
92、ast 4.6 percent per year.Such a growth rate would be enough to absorb new labor market entrants but not to ensure rapid gains in informality and poverty reduction.More fundamental improvements would require significantly faster growth underpinned by reforms supporting structural transformation and j
93、ob creation.In terms of sectoral distribution and taking into account the effect that services tend to expand more rapidly with economic growth,the service sectors share of employment could reach 58 percent by 2030,comprising 1.1 million of the 1.4 million new jobs embedded in World Bank projections
94、(with an average of 6 percent GDP growth over the period 20232030).6The agricultural sector is and will remain a main source of jobs and livelihoods for Togolese in the foreseeable future.The agriculture and food sector has been and will remain the dominant economic and employment sector for the for
95、eseeable future;its performance will be key in improving jobs outcomes for Togos population.Agriculture accounts for about 38 percent of total employment,making it the countrys second largest employer after the service sector.Adding agricultural inputs provision and post-harvest activities throughou
96、t the value chain,the agriculture and food sectors account for at least two-thirds of all jobs.The sheer number of workers in the agriculture sector is too large for the rest of the economy to productively absorb most of its workers in the decades to come.In fact,the sector created almost a quarter
97、million jobs in 2019,which represented 60 percent of all jobs created that year,underlying the need to focus on improving job quality in agriculture.Agriculture is dominated by very small-scale,low productivity activities.Most agricultural household enterprises represent own account and unpaid famil
98、y work.It is characterized by underemployment,even during the agricultural seasons.Agricultural labor productivity is very low,standing at 60 percent of the countrys average labor productivity,and has stagnated over time.Low productivity translates into insufficient earnings:in 2018,an agriculture w
99、orker earned 29,100 FCFA per month on average,representing only 59 percent of the average income for workers.Moreover,agriculture is the main source of jobs and livelihood for the poorest.Most poor and vulnerable workers are employed in agriculture,perpetuating the vicious cycle of low productivity,
100、poverty,and inequality.Women and youth appear to be particularly vulnerable in agriculture sector employment,with male rural workers leaving agriculture much more rapidly than female workers,and youth more likely than their adult counterparts to participate in agriculture employment.7Most informal f
101、irms represent low productivity subsistence activities and would not be able to afford the costs associated with operating in the formal economy.Informal businesses,representing the majority of economic activity in Togo,are a heterogeneous group requiring tailored policy options to improve productiv
102、ity and earnings levels as well as create more jobs.Informality is a dominant feature of Togos economy.Informal businesses tend to have a female owner(72 percent);not have any workers beyond the owner(88 percent);and have low monthly profits(revenues less direct costs;approximatively 58,938 FCFA or
103、US$99 per worker on average).Lack of customers(60.5 percent)and difficulties in accessing credit(52.4 percent)are the main challenges informal firms report on.While in the past policies have mostly focused on formalizing firms,notwithstanding their level of productivity and capacity to formalize,it
104、is important to recognize that the informal business landscape is heterogenous,and tailored policies are needed.A cluster analysis of the informal sector results in five main clusters of firms with different profiles and productivity levels.Firms in Cluster 1(10 percent of informal businesses)are su
105、bsistence businesses with a low potential for growth.Businesses in Clusters 2 and 3(51 percent)are somewhat productive and do have some capacity to grow,although that capacity is limited.Cluster 4 businesses(21 percent)are start-ups with 6highly educated owners and access to public services;while th
106、ey currently operate at low levels of productivity,they do have a high growth potential.Cluster 5 businesses(18 percent)are more established firms with a profile similar to that of formal firms.They are connected to public services,and most of them have a fixed location with access to established su
107、ppliers and clients.All but Cluster 5 firms likely have too low productivity to benefit from formal status,as the fiscal and other costs associated with being formal risks putting these firms out of business.8Formal firm creation has increased as a result from reforms,albeit from a very small base.T
108、ogos economy is dominated by very small businesses,with few firms of significant size,suggesting constraints to growth.Overall,wage jobs in formal firms tend to have higher earnings and better job security,as well as access to social security,which are important aspects of quality jobs.Yet,Togos eco
109、nomy is largely dominated by small businesses,with few firms of significant size.Only around 2,000 firms have an annual turnover above US$100,000 and just 14.5 percent of firms identified in the 2018 Firm Census are formal.The formal private sector has not been creating enough jobs to absorb a growi
110、ng and gradually better-educated workforce.The elasticity of job-to-sales growth in formal firms fell from 0.95 to 0.82 between 2009 and 2016,indicating that firms have not necessarily hired workers as their sales have grown.In comparison,Cambodia(2016)and Bangladesh(2013)displayed job-to-sales grow
111、th elasticities of 3.1 and 5.5,respectively,evidencing labor-intensive growth spurts.Over the past decade,Togos(formal)firm entry rate has steadily increased,a positive development which can improve the elasticity of jobs-to-GDP growth over time.An economy creates jobs through the creation of new jo
112、bs in existing businesses or the creation of new businesses.Togos firm entry rate per 1,000 working age adults went from 0.15 in 2009 to 0.94 in 2020,showing a clear upward trend,especially since 2017,explained by government reforms to simplify the business registration process.Moreover,female busin
113、ess ownership among newly registered firms remains low,with less than one-third of new firms owned by women in 2020.However,since 2014 a steady upward trend has occurred,with female ownership increasing from 22 percent in 2014 to 32 percent in 2020.It should be noted that women are overrepresented i
114、n the informal sector and face comprehensive constraints limiting their ability to contribute to the formal private sector.9Job creation in the formal sector is held back by high labor costs and low productivity levels.Formal firms do not have the right incentives to create more formal jobs.Given cu
115、rrent productivity levels,Togos labor costs,composed of the salary,labor income taxes,and social security contributions,appear to be too high to incentivize firms to create more formal jobs.After the 2012 minimum wage increase,wage employment contracted and self-employment increased,a shift that is
116、particularly pronounced among workers with low levels of education.At least 50 percent of urban wage and industry workers earned less in 2011 than what became the new minimum wage in 2012.Togolese firms hire a larger share of workers on a temporary basis than in other countries,which seems to substa
117、ntiate constraints related to profitably hiring additional workers.Furthermore,Togos manufacturing firms use a higher share of semi-skilled and a lower share of unskilled workers than firms in peer countries,possibly the result of relatively high labor costs for unskilled,low productivity jobs.High
118、labor income taxes and social security contributions in Togo might push some workers and firms towards the informal sector.Firms pay a 3 percent tax on gross salaries and 17.5 percent in social security contributions,while employees contribute 4 percent to social security,bringing the total tax wedg
119、e to 24.5 percent.Togos social security contributions as a share of gross salaries stand at similar levels to those in Benin 7(16.4 percent),Morocco(15.38 percent),and Guinea(18 percent),but well above Rwanda(with 5.3 percent paid for by the employer and 3.3 percent by the employee).Moreover,labor t
120、axes and contributions as a share of profits are higher in Togo than in its East Asian peers as well as in Rwanda,Sierra Leone,and Ghana,according to 2020 Doing Business data.10Access to finance is a major constraint for firms and is especially difficult for women entrepreneurs and sectors where the
121、 poor work.Access to finance is a key constraint for productivity growth as well as further job creation in formal and informal businesses alike.Access to finance may be limiting Togolese firm growth,but,overall,this does not seem as big of an obstacle as in some other countries.According to the Ent
122、erprise Survey,51 percent of formal firms identified access to finance as a major constraint for doing business in 2016.This share is higher than in Rwanda(17 percent in 2019),Morocco(28 percent in 2019),Guinea(30 percent in 2016)and Benin(43 percent in 2016).However,it was not perceived as the bigg
123、est obstacle:only 24 percent of Togolese formal firms perceive access to finance as the biggest constraint,which is lower than in Rwanda(31 percent in 2019),Benin(33 percent in 2016),Sierra Leone(40 percent in 2017),and Ghana(50 percent in 2013).Moreover,in 2016,26 percent and 40 percent of formal f
124、irms in Togo used banks to finance investments and working capital,respectively,higher than in any structural and East Asian peers.Vulnerable groups are more excluded.Data from the 2016 Enterprise Survey may not capture all business growth constraints related to financing.The banking portfolio in To
125、go is concentrated in a few sectors.According to BCEAO data,almost 80 percent of bank credit went to the services sector in 2020 and less than 1 percent went to agriculture,which financial operators explain by the lack of credit history and the high level of informality.Digitizing payments represent
126、s an opportunity to improve financial inclusion,notably for small enterprises,in a context where access to physical financial services remains low.Moreover,World Bank FINDEX data indicates gender differences in terms of financial inclusion in Togo:in 2021,29 percent of men compared to 21 percent of
127、women above the age of 15 years had an account at a financial institution;12 percent of men compared to 11 percent of women above the age of 15 years had saved at a financial institution;and 49 percent of men compared to 39 percent of women above the age of 15 years had made or received a digital pa
128、yment.Building on the analysis,the Diagnostic allowed to identify the following key recommendations to improve jobs outcomes for all population groups in Togo:(a)Coordination.Combining a multisectoral jobs strategy,the jobs platform anchored at the highest level,and a data exchange platform would en
129、sure a consistent policy approach across the Togolese economy,provide broad direction for the sectoral efforts,ingrain a strong job lens,including through enhanced data for evidence-based decision making,and improve efficiency and effectiveness in economic and social policies.(b)Labor supply.Improve
130、d targeting of measures including wage subsidies,training offerings,and cash transfers would allow for a strengthened focus on the most vulnerable groups,including women and youth,in connecting workers to more productive opportunities as wage workers or self-employed.Simultaneously,social protection
131、 systems need to be significantly developed and further strengthened for vulnerable households depending on informal work.(c)Overall economic context.Applying a jobs lens in policy decisions would create the space to further develop the potential of agriculture and strengthen urban employment opport
132、unities.From a sectoral perspective,special efforts should be made to develop the large potential of agriculture in Togo,which is critical for employment in Togo.Critical measures include investment in infrastructure and initiatives to promote processing and exports.8(d)Labor demand.Promoting the cr
133、eation of more formal jobs in the private sector,including by reviewing the various elements of total labor costs to improve its competitiveness,enhancing access to finance,and strengthening good governance,would improve conditions to create more formal jobs in the private sector.Policy also needs t
134、o strengthen productivity in the informal sector through a more tailored approach to meet the needs of the heterogenous firms in the sector,as this is where most of the jobs are and will remain in the foreseeable future.91.INTRODUCTION1.Togo has made significant progress in creating more and better
135、jobs,with robust growth performance in the past decade,output shifting slowly out of agriculture and into services,and employment starting to shift into services.Togo,a West African country of 8 million people,5 administrative regions,and neighboring Ghana,Burkina Faso and Benin,has seen robust grow
136、th in the two decades before the COVID-19 pandemic,accompanied by the creation of new jobs.However,several challenges to more and better job creation remain.Togos job market is still marked by low productivity and slow structural transformation.Industry is in the early stages of development;it needs
137、 time and the right policy environment to grow.This jobs challenge is compounded by demographic trends,as the working age population is growing at a time of weak and inadequate labor demand,mainly outside of the farm sector.FIGURE1.1Map of Togo102.But Togo will need to create an additional one milli
138、on jobs to absorb its growing labor force and,consequently,to sustain a GDP growth rate of at least 4.6 percent per year until 2030.This growth performance would be sufficient to absorb new entrants but not to significantly reduce informality or to ensure rapid gains in average earnings.Given the st
139、ructure of the Togolese labor market,this report focuses on tapping the immediate potential for productive employment in agriculture and household enterprises,analyzing the potential for productivity and job growth in the informal sector,and assessing the specific challenges and opportunities relate
140、d to employment on farms,in nonfarm household enterprises,and in(modern)wage jobs with a focus on youth and women.3.The COVID-19 pandemic and economic disruptions from the war in Ukraine have led to slower gains in GDP per capita and poverty reduction in recent years and have considerable reduced fi
141、scal buffers.During the COVID-19 pandemic,reduced demand for Togolese exports has put jobs and incomes in sectors dependent on international trade at risk.The sectors most affected during the pandemic were tourism,transport and logistics,manufacturing,agriculture,and agribusiness.1 In addition,remit
142、tances for Togo declined 3.7 percent in 2020,a decrease of US$17 million from 2019.2 This affected not only consumption,but also productive investments,because in a country such as Togo friends and relatives are the main sources of finance for entrepreneurs.3 A decrease in remittances,in combination
143、 with an income drop through other channels,is likely to lower domestic demand for services and products,creating second-order effects on jobs and income.A sharp rebound in global trade contributed to the subsequent recovery in 2021,to 5.3 percent,but disruptions associated with the war in Ukraine c
144、reated renewed headwinds in 2022,as reflected in decelerating external demand and rising energy,fertilizer,and food prices,which adversely impacted key sectors of the economy and dampened households purchasing power.More variable rainfalls also contributed to rising domestic food prices.Both rural p
145、oor who rely on agriculture for their own consumption or as a primary source of income and urban poor relying on imported food were adversely impacted.These shocks,combined with growing insecurity in the North,led the government to boost public spending,which contributed to stabilizing growth at an
146、estimated 4.9 percent in 2022,but widened the fiscal deficit to a 3-decade high of 8.4 percent of GDP.4.Moving forward,significant uncertainty on the economic outlook for the country requires a strategic reevaluation of priorities with constrained fiscal space a significant concern.Uncertainty relat
147、ed to the evolution of global demand,energy,food prices,financing conditions,security risks and climate change imply that the balance of risks to the outlook is largely tilted to the downside in the short term.Deeper disruptions to global trade,commodity,and financial markets could have a severe kno
148、ck-on effect on a small,open,and relatively indebted country like Togo.Additional downside risks include rising security threats that could weigh on investment,trade,and public finances.Unfavorable weather conditions and the unavailability of inputs could negatively affect agricultural productivity,
149、while the relative weakness of administrative capacity could limit the implementation of reforms and private investment.A policy approach that focuses on job creation,productivity enhancement,movement from informal to formal employment,and support for different profiles of workers and their househol
150、ds will provide both short and long-term economic benefits to Togos economic and social stability.A multi-sectoral approach would help address poverty and factors that limit Togos economicgrowth.5.Good quality jobs are key to accelerating poverty reduction in Togo,where around half of the population
151、 still lives in poverty.Between 2011 and 2015,the national poverty rate in Togo decreased from 58.7 percent to 55.1 percent.Poverty is primarily a rural phenomenon,with 69 percent of rural households living below the poverty line in 2015.Female-headed households experience higher rates of poverty th
152、an male-headed households(57.5 percent vs.55 percent).4 In 201819,the national poverty rate stood at 45.5 percent,showing an important decrease from 2015.5 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine 1World Bank.2020.Togo Economic Update.2World Bank.2020.Migration and Development Brie
153、f 33:Phase II:COVID-19 Crisis through a Migration Lens.3World Bank.2020.Macroeconomic and financial weekly monitoring October 16,2020.4World Bank.2019.Macro and Poverty Outlook.5Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire(QUIBB,2006,2011,2015)and the West African Economic and Monetary Union(WAEMU)harmoniz
154、ed survey(201819).Caution is needed in interpreting the evolution of the poverty share between the two periods,as data are based on two different surveys that are not fully comparable.11are likely to have reversed some of these welfare gains.The war,which has limited access to fertilizer and other k
155、ey agricultural inputs,will likely negatively impact the current agricultural season.In line with this,growth in the agriculture sector is expected to decelerate to 4 percent,down from 6 percent growth in 2021.6 The rural population who disproportionately rely on agriculture(76 percent and 55 percen
156、t,respectively,for crop and livestock production)7 as a source of livelihoods are at a greater risk of falling into poverty.Without accelerated growth and targeted large-scale poverty interventionsincluding the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and social safety net and consumption smoothing programsTogos
157、development progress will continue to be slower than that needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)and the World Banks Twin Goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and boosting shared prosperity.6.Beyond helping lift people out of poverty,good quality jobs also contribute to stabilit
158、y and social cohesion.Security threats on the countrys eastern and northern borders have been growing,with terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso close to the Togolese border increasing in number and severity since 2018,and a first attack reported on Togolese territory in November 2021 in the Savanes reg
159、ion.8 Recent findings from qualitative surveys in neighboring Benin,as well as international research,point to internal risks associated with radicalization of young people.9 Lack of economic opportunities and insufficient social services fuel a feeling of exclusion and hopelessness for extremist gr
160、oups to exploit.Access to good quality jobs with a stable income for young Togolese must be part of the solution to the security threats.Despite the importance of jobs for poverty reduction,social cohesion,and stability in Togo,the countrys jobs challenge is tremendous.7.Over the last decade,a timid
161、 structural transformation process has started to take place in Togo,in parallel with growing urbanization.A declining share of the working age population is employed in agriculture,with a growing share employed in manufacturing,transport,commerce,public administration,and other services.Yet whereas
162、 industrial employment has only slightly increased since 2006,there have been more pronounced shifts from the agricultural to the service sector.In 2019,49.4 percent of the work force operated in the services sector,with 12.9 percent in the industry.In parallel,urbanization has increased from 36 to
163、42 percent between 2006 and 2019.10 Productive urbanization and export led growth are mutually reinforcing drivers of Togos structural transformation:export led growth fuels urbanization(with workers moving from rural to urban areas to either take jobs in export industries or to provide services and
164、 goods to these workers).At the same time,productive urbanization supports the competitiveness of export industries through economies of agglomeration and specialization.While these factors are mutually reinforcing,Togos level of economic development warrants greater attention to supporting the deve
165、lopment of export led growth at this stage.118.Despite the decreasing share of agriculture in employment,the sector continues to play a predominant role in the Togolese economy and labor market.In 2019,the agricultural sector represented 20.4 percent of Togos GDP and 40 percent of its labor force.Ca
166、shew nuts,raw cotton,and cocoa beans were among the products with the highest average export values over the last decade.Yet most jobs in agriculture are informal,and productivity growth remains low,leading to low earnings.Mean nominal monthly earnings in 2019 stood at 37,57512 FCFA(US$67)in agricul
167、ture,49,735 FCFA(US$89)in the manufacturing sector,and 91,659 FCFA(US$164)in trade,transportation,accommodation and food,business,and administrative services.13 The countrys agroindustry has not developed sufficiently to increase the level of transformation and value addition that could make this se
168、ctor a real growth engine that creates jobs on and off the farm.6World Bank.2022.Macroeconomics,Trade&Investment Global Practices.7EHCVM 2018/19.8In 2022,the Government of Togo put in place the Emergency Program for the Savanes region(Programme dUrgence pour la Rgion des Savanes,PURS)to strengthen t
169、he resilience of households in the region.9World Bank,April 29,2020.Strengthening Youth Resilience to Radicalization.10World Development Indicators,2020.11World Bank,Togo CPSD,forthcoming.12Franc de la Communaut Financire Africaine(Franc of the African Financial Community).13ILO modeled estimates,20
170、19.129.Overall,employment in Togo is nearly all informal,14 with youth and women in rural areas facing the biggest challenges to access formal employment.While wage employment in Togo increased from 11 to 19 percent between 2006 and 2011,it decreased to 17 percent in 2019,lower than the Sub-Saharan
171、African(SSA)average(19 percent)and far below aspirational peers such as Morocco(50 percent)and Ghana(26 percent).Moreover,according to the Enqute Harmonise sur le Conditions de Vie des Mnages(EHCVM),more than half of Togolese workers were engaged in informal subsistence activities that generate low
172、income in 2018.Similarly,underemployment almost doubled for all worker groups,irrespective of educational achievement and residence(urban/rural).10.Another challenge Togo faces is integrating a growing number of young people with a rising level of education into the labor market.Although the fertili
173、ty rate in Togo has been decreasing faster than the low-income country(LIC)average,it remains high,at above 4 live births per woman.Due to high fertility rates in the past,Togos labor force is expected to grow by 35 percent(1.3 million)by 2030.15 This calls for particular attention to youth and the
174、specific constraints they face in participating in the labor market,as well as to the capacity of the labor market to absorb them into productive jobs(matching between youth arriving on the labor market and available jobs).For youth to productively perform their jobs,their levels of education and sk
175、ills are key(qualitative matching between youth arriving on the labor market and required qualifications).The share of the working age population with secondary and post-secondary education increased by more than 15 percentage points between 2011 and 2015,according to the QUIBB surveys.Although Togo
176、 has a low average unemployment rate,unemployment is higher for youths living in urban areas and for youths with higher education,which is typically associated with youths queuing for formal jobs.To raise both the quantity and the productivity,and thus the quality,of jobs for increasingly educated w
177、orkers,Togo will have to accelerate creation of private sector wage jobs,which should include increasing the number of enterprises and helping them to grow to a productive scale so that they create more jobs.At the same time,it is key to ensure a business environment that allows existing firms to pr
178、osper to keep existing jobs and create new ones.11.While a large part of the working age population in Togo has at least one job,the quality of those jobs tends to be low.In 2018,Togos labor force participation rate stood at 77 percent with an unemployment rate of 1.7 percent.However,underemployment
179、 poses a significant challenge:while 61 percent of those with a job were underemployed in terms of time spent performing work,a majority of workers operate at low levels of productivity in the informal sector and are underemployed in terms of earnings,with limited or no access to social protection s
180、chemes.Of those with a job,59 percent were own-account workers,19 percent contributing family workers,and 16 percent employees.The share of own-account workers,who tend to operate under vulnerable working conditions,is significantly higher in rural(62 percent)than urban areas(55 percent),with little
181、 gender difference(58 percent of men vs.60 percent of women).16 Own-account workers and family workers often operate at low levels of productivity.To counteract the wage and productivity stagnation in these informal and low-quality jobs,improving access to good quality jobsthat is,jobs with higher p
182、roductivity and earningswill play a key role in the countrys poverty reduction efforts as well as help strengthen social cohesion and improvesecurity.12.Addressing Togos jobs challenge requires a multi-sectoral approach,yet the Governments strategies and policies do not yet fully embrace a multi-sec
183、toral,long-term vision to achieve better jobs outcomes for all population groups.Togos National Development Plan(20182022)touches upon some of the labor supply and demand side issues,yet could benefit from a stronger jobs lens to identify strategic 14Informality is a multidimensional phenomenon affe
184、cting firms and workers.The ILO uses two approaches to define informality:the firm approach and the workforce approach.For the firm approach,the most common definition of informality is based on the criterion of legal and tax registration.In Togo,a firm not registered with the Centre de Formalit des
185、 Entreprises(CFE)and which does not pay taxes to the Office Togolais des Recettes(OTR)is defined as informal.For the workforce approach,informality implies that an employee is not registered with the Caisse nationale de scurit sociale(CNSS).Registering employees with the CNSS generally represents th
186、e last administrative step in the firm formalization process.In reality,informality is a continuum.The level of formality of many firms is between these two extremes.15Jobs Group Demography tool using World Development Indicators and UNPop Projections.16ILO modeled estimates,2019.13priorities that s
187、upport large-scale job creation and economic transformation.Moreover,the National Strategic Youth Employment Plan(20132022)shows a strong focus on issues affecting labor supply:the Plans pillars focus on promoting sectoral policies that integrate youth employment,strengthen self-employment capacity,
188、reduce underemployment,and promote youth access to finance.The Feuille de Route Gouvernementale 20202025 marks an important shift towards encouraging private sector development and attracting private investments and was developed while Togo was making important progress in improving its business cli
189、mate.Despite this recent shift towards a private sector-driven development path,further attention to macro-economic constraints,including the external shocks discussed above,as well as labor demand-side constraints and opportunities can support a more targeted approach to the countrys jobs strategy.
190、13.The Jobs Diagnostic applies a multi-sectoral approach to Togos jobs challenges by describing key labor market trends and conducting a data-driven diagnosis of key constraints to improving jobs outcomes at the macro,labor demand,and labor supply levels.The Jobs Diagnostic not only describes trends
191、 but also analyzes drivers of economic transformation at the macro level:on the labor demand side,the Diagnostic looks at sources of job creation and ways to increase the productivity of jobs,while on the labor supply side,it looks at labor market outcomes,including any skills(mis-)match,policy-base
192、d labor market frictions,labor supply constraints,and ease of access to higher productivity jobs.The Diagnostic also reviews the limited data available to evaluate how the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic will affect jobs and incomes for years to come.At the same time,constraints identified fr
193、om pre-COVID-19 pandemic data are likely to persist in its aftermath.14.The Togo Jobs Diagnostic has been developed using the latest available datasets.The following data sets have been used to conduct the Togo Jobs Diagnostic:Enqute Harmonise sur les Conditions de Vie des Mnages(EHCVM)20182019;Ques
194、tionnaire des Indicateurs de Base du Bien-tre(QUIBB)2006 and 2011;Enqute Rgionale Intgre sur lEmploi et le Secteur Informel(ERI-ESI)2017;World Bank Enterprise Survey 2011 and 2016;World Development Indicators 2020;Donnes sur les nouvelles crations dentreprisesCentre de Formalit des Entreprises(CFE),
195、September 2021;World Bank Doing Business data points(not using rankings);and Penn World Table data(version 10).Whenever feasible,Togos situation has been compared to its structural peers(Benin,Guinea,and Sierra Leone)and aspirational peers(Ghana,Morocco,and Rwanda),aligned with other World Bank anal
196、ytical work in recent years.1715.Insights gathered in a series of meetings with a multi-sectoral technical committee chaired by the Coalition Nationale de lEmploi des Jeunes(CNEJ)complement the quantitative analysis.In collaboration with the CNEJ,which works under the responsibility of the Haut Cons
197、eil de lEmploi des Jeunes chaired by the Prime Ministers Office,the World Bank has supported the establishment of a multi-sectoral technical committee chaired by the CNEJ.Members of the technical committee are the Institute of National Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies(Institut Nationa
198、l de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques et Dmographiques,INSEED);the National Employment Promotion Agency(Agence Nationale de Promotion de lEmploi,ANPE);the Ministry of Investment Promotion(MIP);the Association of Large Firms in Togo(Association des Grandes Entreprises du Togo,AGET);the Genera
199、l Directorate on Employment(Direction Gnrale de lEmploi,DGE);the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Togo(Chambre de Commerce et de lIndustrie du Togo,CCIT);the Ministry on Agriculture,Livestock and Rural Development(MALRD);the Directorate on Youth and Youth Employment(Direction de la Jeunesse et de
200、 lEmploi des Jeunes,DJEJ);the Central Bank of West African States(Banque Centrale des Etats de lAfrique de lOuest,BCEAO);and the Ministry of Economy and Finance(Ministre 17The Diagnostic uses the same peer countries as previous analytical work conducted by the World Bank,including the latest Country
201、 Economic Memorandum and the Togo Expenditure Review.It is in the context of the preparation of these analytical reports that the government and the Bank agreed on Benin,Guinea and Sierra Leone as structural peers,and Ghana,Morocco and Rwanda as aspirational peers.Structural peers were defined as co
202、untries that have similar economic characteristics as Togo in 20142018 focusing on coastal economies with a GDP per capita,population,size of government and human development index within+/30 percent range of that of Togo during the benchmarking period 20142018.Aspirational peers were defined as cou
203、ntries that possessed similar structural characteristics as Togo in 20052010 and have enjoyed faster per capita growth since.Selection criteria included(i)a GDP per capita,population,size of government and human development index within+/30 percent range of that of Togo during the benchmarking perio
204、d 20052018;(ii)faster per capita growth than Togo since 2010;and(iii)government suggestions.14de lEconomie et des Finances,MEF);as well as development partners.Between April 2021 and November 2022,seven technical meetings took place to present and discuss preliminary findings from the Togo Jobs Diag
205、nostic.Feedback from the meetings has been integrated into the final version of the Diagnostic.16.The Jobs Diagnostic is part of a two-year analytical program co-financed by the World Bank and the Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)to support the Government of Togo(GoT)as it
206、develops a multisectoral strategy on jobs.The analytical program consists of the Jobs Diagnostic,an in-depth value chain study,and technical assistance to the GoT to develop a multisectoral jobs strategy.The in-depth value chain analysis is a continuation of the previous stream of work between the W
207、orld Bank and GIZ that allowed identification of high potential value chains for better jobs outcomes for youth and women;18 it applies an integrated approach to jobs in the agricultural sector by conducting an in-depth analysis of selected value chains,simultaneously assessing constraints on,and op
208、portunities for,better jobs outcomes for youth and women at the macro level,while also exploring constraints and opportunities in the areas of labor supply and demand.Going forward,the World Bank will offer technical assistance to the GoT in developing a multisectoral jobs strategy,aimed to become a
209、 reference document on jobs for the GoT and its developmentpartners.17.This Diagnostic presents the data relevant to a jobs-focused economic development plan,the results of the analysis of the data,and a number of policy recommendations based on the analysis.Given the predominance of the informal an
210、d agricultural sectors,two deep dives in these areas are presented.As stated,a data-driven multi-sectoral program that focuses on jobs in the Togolese economy can provide a strong yet dynamic structure on which to develop the stability,sustainability,and growth needed to help Togo achieve its econom
211、ic and social goals.18High potential value chains are those with an assured market and job opportunities that take into account the specific constraints youth and women face in accessing jobs.152.MULTISECTORAL JOBS DIAGNOSTIC18.In this first part,the Jobs Diagnostic is focusing on a multisectoral co
212、re diagnostic,analyzing key labor market trends.In particular,the diagnostic describes labor market outcomes on the labor supply side;analyzes drivers of economic transformation at the macro level;and looks at sources of job creation and ways of increasing the productivity of jobs.The core diagnosti
213、c uses the latest available data,at macro-economic,household and firm level.2.1GROWING LABOR SUPPLY FACES SIGNIFICANT UNDEREMPLOYMENT AND IMPORTANT GENDER AND LOCATION DISPARITIESTogo has a young and active population with large cohorts of new entrants with increasing education levels joining the la
214、bor market every year.19.Togos young workforce is growing,with large cohorts of new entrants joining the labor market every year.Togos young population and high demographic growth(2.4 percent per year)is close to the SSA country average(2.6 percent per year).In 2020,individuals aged 014 represented
215、3.4 million people(41 percent of the total population),almost 72 percent of the working-age population in 2020.Such strong demographic growth is a major employment challenge,as the labor market will have to absorb large cohorts of new candidates over the next decades,with an expected 1.3 million add
216、itional jobs needed between 2025 and 2035(616,000 for the period 2025 to 2030 and 707,000 for the period 2030 to 2035).FIGURE2.1.1Age pyramid in 2020800600400650400600800MenWomenAge group909475799094454930341519041,000 peopleSource:Authors calculations based on World Developmen
217、t Indicators data.1620.Between 2006 and 2018,the level of education of the working-age population improved,mainly through an increase in primary school enrollment.This improvement in level of educational achievement has mainly affected the younger generations of workers and future workers,with fewer
218、 individuals in these generations without access to education:for example,only 11 percent of those aged 1524 have never been to school compared with 40 percent among those aged 3554.19 Although it is difficult to access recent data on returns to education in Togo,international economic literature sh
219、ows that returns to education for the labor market can be significant,particularly for women.20 Data on formal sector employee incomes in Togo indicate that secondary education is profitable and that returns from secondary education greatly increased between 2011 and 2018.21.Large disparities in acc
220、ess to education between urban and rural individuals and between men and women reinforce existing inequalities in access to employment and quality jobs.The increased level of schooling mentioned above has not affected urban and rural households or men and women in the same way.Rural households have
221、less opportunity in terms of education,since 41 percent of rural individuals have not attended school compared to only 15 percent of urban individuals.Further disparity appears between men and women,with 39 percent of women having never gone to school compared to only 17 percent of men.Finally,when
222、overlapping domicile with gender,rural women are the most affected by these disparities in access to education.Half of rural women have never been to school,creating a major impact on the type and quality of jobs to which they can aspire.22.The completion rate for the first cycle of secondary educat
223、ion21 in Togo has improved but at a slightly slower pace than in other countries.The completion rate has doubled in almost 20 years,from 26 percent in 2001 to 50 percent in 2019.However,the increase has been relatively slower than in Benin where the completion rate for the first cycle of secondary e
224、ducation almost tripled from 2001 to 2016.According to the World Development Indicators(WDI)database,currently one out of two individuals does not finish the first cycle of secondary education in Togo.The ratio is 1 of 9 in Ghana.Increasing this ratio and the level of secondary education in general
225、is important to improve the quality of jobs.19QUIBB and EHCVM.20Psacharopoulos,George.“Returns to Education:A Further International Update and Implications.”The Journal of Human Resources,vol.20,no.4,1985,pp.583604,https:/doi.org/10.2307/145686.21The first cycle of secondary education in the Togoles
226、e schooling system corresponds to years of schooling 7 to 10,or from the 6th class to the 3rd class according to the Togolese education system.FIGURE2.1.2Education over time3430294343200620112018No educationPrimary educationSecondary educationHigher educationPercentage50403020100Source:Au
227、thors calculations based on QUIBB and EHCVM data.17The employment rate among Togos working age population is high,with low unemployment.23.Togos employment rate is high,but jobs tend to be poor quality.The employment rate varies significantly according to whether individuals work with or without dir
228、ect remuneration.Between 1982 and 2013,the International Labor Office(ILO)revised its employment”definition”from a broad concept of employment including unpaid family workers to a more restrictive definition that excludes them.Under the more restrictive definition in Togo,the employment rate fell fr
229、om 76 percent to 64 percent.22 This indicates a 22Calculated from 2018 EHCVM data.FIGURE2.1.4Completion rate of first cycle of secondary education,total(%of relevant age group)265022072507880Percentage604020020000014TogoBeninMoroccoRw
230、andaSierra LeoneGhanaGuineaSource:Authors calculations based on World Development Indicator data.FIGURE2.1.3Education of Togolese aged 299243442426397624284326402920NoneTotalUrban RuralMale FemaleUrban maleRural
231、maleUrban female1524 2534 3554 5564Rural femalePrimarySecondary first cycleSecondary second cyclePost-secondary00708090100PercentageSource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.18great many poor-quality jobs in Togo,with slightly more than 400,000 people working within their house
232、holds without direct remuneration.Three of four such family workers are women,most of them living in rural areas,and their participation in the labor market is impeded by social norms and the lack of qualifications.Family work is one of the most insecure forms of employment because it does not lead
233、to direct remuneration;most of the time it consists in participating in the households agricultural and pastoral work with no individual pay.The Jobs Diagnostic will take family workers into account to allow for comparisons of the employment rate over time.BOX 2.1.1:DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS:Employme
234、nt rate:The share of the working-age population in employment.An individual is considered employed if she has worked at least one hour over the previous seven days,or has not worked but was temporarily absent and is expected to go back.Definition 1(applied in the context of this Jobs Diagnostic)Broa
235、d definition of employment(direct and indirect remuneration):Employment includes all individuals engaged in any activity intended to produce goods and services in exchange for remuneration or profit,even for just one hour over the preceding seven days,and those individuals having worked without remu
236、neration for another member of the household during the preceding seven days.FIGUREB2.1.1.1Broad definition of employmentWorking age population(15 to 64 years)4,064,462(53%of total population)In school497,566(12%)Inactive419,544(10.3%)Employed3,052,677(76%)Unemployed69,722(1.7%)Inactive population91
237、7,120(23%of 15 to 64 years)Active population3,122,390(77%of 15 to 64 years)19Definition 2Restricted definition of employment:Concentrating on individuals receiving direct remuneration for goods and services.Household enterprise:Unincorporated,nonfarm business owned by households(activity does not ne
238、ed to be physically located in the household dwelling unit).This includes self-employed people who run a business that may employ family members without pay,but also self-employed people who run a business that employs a small number of nonfamily workers on a casual basis.Inactivity rate:The share o
239、f the working-age population outside the labor force(active population).It includes all those who were not employed or unemployed over the previous seven days,and are not actively looking for work,because they are in school,are retired,or for any other reason.Self-employed workers:People working on
240、their own account,with one or more partners or in a cooperative without employees.Unemployment rate:The share of the labor force that has worked less than one hour over the previous seven days,is actively looking for work,and is available to work in the next 15 days.Wage-employed workers:Individuals
241、 who have declared being employed by an employer outside the household and are paid(either with or without a contract,in cash or in-kind).Working-age population:Individuals between ages 15 and 64.24.Unemployment in Togo is low.About 4 percent of those aged 1564 in 2006 were unemployed,and the rate f
242、ell to 1.7 percent in 2018.Togo is not an exception but rather reflects the inability of unemployment figures to accurately describe the functioning of the labor market in developing countries.For comparison,Benin recorded unemployment at 1.4 percent23 in 2018,Guinea at 5 percent in 2019,and Sierra
243、Leone at 4.7 percent in 2014.These figures should not be interpreted as there being no employment problems in these countries;rather,given insufficient social protection,poor people are compelled to take any work to survive.Seeking employment is not without cost and depends on the ability of jobseek
244、ers to finance a period of unemployment,either from personal savings or family support.As a result,jobseekers recorded in official statistics are most likely to belong to the more affluent segments of the population;other workers have no choice but to accept any form of occupation,even though it is
245、badly paid and/or working conditions are difficult.23World Bank(World Development Indicators,national estimate)for Benin,Guinea and Sierra Leone.FIGUREB2.1.1.2Restricted definition of employmentWorking age population(15 to 64 years)4,064,462(53%of total population)In school497,566(12%)Inactive859,29
246、1(21%)Employed2,600,128(64%)Unemployed82,525(2%)Inactive population1,356,856(34%of 15 to 64 years)Active population2,682,653(66%of 15 to 64 years)2025.Between 2006 and 2018,the employment rate remained stable except for those aged 15 to 24,whose employment rate decreased in parallel to an increase i
247、n education levels.Indeed,the share of individuals aged 15-24 still in school grew strongly,from 26 percent to 38 percent.A key question is whether education systems produce high quality and labor market relevant skills,especially in view of changing and hard-to-predict demands of the labor market.H
248、owever,the rise in school attendance is encouraging because it is likely to teach young people to learn and to develop their capacity to adapt,two indispensable qualities for professionallife.26.Unemployment remains insignificant and mainly affects educated urban youth.The unemployment rate is very
249、low in Togo(1.7 percent in 2018)and has halved since 2006(4 percent).However,whatever the period,it is higher in urban than in rural areas.Breaking down this indicator for 2018 shows that unemployment mainly concerns men and women in urban areas.The unemployed are essentially young people with high
250、education in the more affluent segments of society(Q4 and Q5),who likely can afford to wait for“the right opportunity”to join the labor market.27.High employment rates mask significant disparities between gender and areas of residence.Major employment indicators have remained stable over the last de
251、cade with the employment rate dropping slightly from 79 percent in 2006 and 2011 to 76 percent in 2018.The main changes occurred in inactivity rates,which grew for men and those living in urban areas,a sign that urban men,who are usually educated,can wait for quality jobs.There has been a notable ri
252、se in womens access to education,with the share of working-age women having attended school doubling between 2011 and 2018.This indicates that girls are beginning to catch up in terms of education,although the level of education for females remains insufficient at present to guarantee women access t
253、o good quality jobs,especially in rural areas.FIGURE2.1.5Changes in employment rate between 2006 and 20038827620406080100PercentageEmployedUnemployedInactiveIn school2000182011Total2006Source:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 d
254、ata.2128.Without considering students,the great majority of individuals not participating in the labor market are women:75 percent of inactive people are women,whose main obstacle to employment is domestic work.The rate of non-participation in the labor market is 14 percent among women and only 6 pe
255、rcent among men.It is also higher among individuals who have never attended school and in some more remote areas,such as the Savanes region.Reasons for not participating in the labor market vary depending on gender.For women,both in urban and rural areas,the main reason is linked to domestic work.Fo
256、r men,illness or disability are the main reasons,in addition to the seasonality of rural activities.FIGURE2.1.7Changes in employment rate between 2006 and 20874980778605829868766487992011EmployedUnemployedNon-labor forceIn school02040
257、6080100Percentage2018Female201120062018Male201120062018Rural20062018Urban20011Total2006Source:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.FIGURE2.1.6Unemployment Rate in 2018 0246812101614PercentageTotalUrban maleUrban femaleUrban maleRural female45564Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5NonePrimarySec
258、ondary first cycleSecondary second cyclePost-secondarySource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.22TABLE 2.1.1Reasons for non-participation in labor market by gender and location in 2018UrbanRuralMenWomenMenWomenToo young5%2%5%3%Too old/retired18%7%7%7%Domestic work2%38%0%41%Illness/disabi
259、lity17%11%28%14%Do not want to work 2%2%2%2%Waiting to start own business 9%11%9%8%Waiting for response to job application5%1%1%0%Lack of work9%4%7%2%Do not know how to look for work 3%1%0%1%Seasonal unemployment 6%2%17%7%Other24%21%21%15%Source:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.FIGURE2.
260、1.8Rate of non-participation in the labor market in 20950026284230405060PercentageTotalMaleFemaleUrbanRural45564MaritimePlateauxCentraleKaraSavanesLom communeNonePrimarySecondary first cycleSecondary second cyclePost-second
261、aryInactivity rateInactivity(not including students)rateSource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.23Togos labor market is characterized by low job quality,high underemployment,and precarious self-employment.29.Self-employment is the dominant form of employment in Togo,responsible for almo
262、st six of ten jobs.Self-employment is extremely widespread in developing countries.Its importance usually reflects the inability of the labor market to create decent jobs.This means self-employment is often synonymous with lower quality jobs,as it represents the only possibility for workers without
263、necessary qualifications for formal salaried jobs or for those workers with more skills who are waiting for good quality jobs.30.The prominence of self-employment is reflected in key sectors of the economy.As a result,activities linked to agriculture24(59.5 percent),trade(74.5 percent),and craftwork
264、(71.2 percent)are dominated by self-employment,except for other services(42 percent).Wage-employment is more common in sectors such as public administration(98.2 percent),financial services(64.4 percent),and transport(49.5 percent).31.Self-employment is more common in rural than urban areas.In fact,
265、62 percent of jobs in rural areas are self-employment jobs,compared to 55 percent in urban areas.Wage employment,which represents less than two of ten jobs,is essentially urban and male.In contrast,three of four family workers are women,the vast majority of whom live in rural areas.Consequently,inco
266、me insecurity is greater in rural areas and amongwomen.32.The predominance of self-employment is not specific to Togo,but there has been very little change between employment types over time.Benin,Sierra Leone,and Ghana all have self-employment rates above 50 percent.The most striking finding,howeve
267、r,is how the share of employment types has not changed since 1998.From 1998 to 2018,the self-employment rate in Togo remained stable at 52 percent,whereas it went from 60 percent to 39 percent in Rwanda over the same period.Over the last 20 years,Togo also experienced weaker growth in the number of
268、wage workers than some other countries,such as Morocco,Rwanda,and Ghana.From 1998 to 2018,the number of wage workers went from 19 percent to only 21 percent in Togo,while Rwanda has seen a 23-percentage point and Ghana an 8-percentage point increase.The changes in these three countriesGhana,Morocco,
269、and Rwandaare signs of underlying structural change,which does not appear to be the case in Togo.24The agricultural sector is the main employer with 42 percent of workers in the Togolese economy,followed by trade(wholesale and retail trade,as well as hotels and restaurants)and other services(teachin
270、g,personal services(hairdressers,tailors,etc.)and various otherprofessions).FIGURE2.1.9Principal employment type over the 12 months preceding the surveyEmployee16%Self-employed59%Family worker19%Trainees5%Employer1%Private wage12%Public wage 3%HH wage 1%Source:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 201
271、8 data.24FIGURE2.1.10Spread of employment types in key sectors of the economy in 205060708090100PercentageSelf-employedFamily workerEmployerWage workerAgriculture(42%)Trade(20%)Other services(16%)Arts and crafts(13%)Construction and mining(4%)TransportPublic administrationFinancial servic
272、esWater,gas,electricitySource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.FIGURE2.1.11Spread of employment types by gender and location in 2096622827560125106582Wage workerApprentice/InternFamily workerSelf-employedEmployerRuralUrbanWomenMen00708090100PercentageSource:Authors
273、 calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.2533.Underemployment is widespread,especially for women and in rural areas.Underemployment reflects inadequate duration of work,that is,less than 35 hours per week,which is too little to ensure sufficient income from most activities in Togo.Including the months
274、 worked in the previous 12 months,it appears that 60.5 percent of individuals are underemployed.There is significant underemployment in all forms of employment:it is 51 percent among salaried workers and 57 percent among the self-employed.Therefore,beyond the relatively low unemployment rate,underem
275、ployment is one of the main employment problems in Togo,often linked to jobs that are insecure,require few qualifications,and provide relatively little remuneration.FIGURE2.1.12Spread of employment types in comparator countries from 609682392928
276、528405060708090100Percentage2099820998201820181998TogoBeninMoroccoRwandaSierra LeoneGhana1998Paid employeesSelf-employed unpaid family workersSelf-employed employersOther self-employedSource:Authors calculations based on World Development Indicator data.FIGURE2.1.13V
277、isible underemployment(35 hours/week)main job54674870535533352300708090100PercentageTotalMaleFemaleUrbanRuralWageTraineesFamilyworkerSelf-employedEmployerTaking into account the number of months of activity per yearStandard monthSource:Authors calculations based on W
278、orld Development Indicator data.2634.Underemployment is more prevalent in the agricultural sector than in other sectors of the economy.According to the EHCVM survey data,57 percent of people working in agriculture are affected by underemployment.If we consider the duration of the activities during t
279、he year,this rate rises to 77 percent.This is because agricultural activities last for a few months,whereas activities related to services and industry can be carried out throughout the year.35.The rate of visible underemployment is higher in Togo than in all selected comparator countries except Sie
280、rra Leone.Underemployment in both rural and urban areas also disproportionately affects women in the countries examined,but in lower proportions than in Togo,except Sierra Leone.FIGURE2.1.14Visible underemployment(35 hours/week)main job by sector57402030405060708090PercentageAgricultureIn
281、dustryServicesTaking into account the number of months of activity per yearStandard monthSource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.FIGURE2.1.15Rates of visible underemployment across countries3962859430570899322452030405060708010090PercentageUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrban
282、RuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralTogo2018Sierra Leone2014Rwanda2016Guinea2012Ghana2012FemaleMaleSource:Authors calculations based on Jobs Indicators Benchmarking tool and EHCVM 2018 data.2736.Education level is positively correlated to job quality.Individuals with no education are overrepresented among fami
283、ly workers,with almost half of family workers never having attended school.Unsurprisingly,individuals with some secondary or higher education are more likely to find salaried employment;only three of ten self-employed people have more than a primary education.Beyond major employment categories,incom
284、e data would be needed to better understand return on education in the employment market.Unfortunately,these data are not available from the 2018 ECVMH survey.School-to-work transition is characterized by gender and location inequalities.37.The employment rate for youth aged 15 to 35 increases great
285、ly with age,but not all young people are equal in terms of access to employment.The overall employment rate is 36 percent for 15-year-olds,and increases to 94 percent for 34-year-olds.Transition from school into employment is slowest for young urban people because of higher post-primary school enrol
286、lment;76 percent of urban individuals aged 15 are still attending school,compared to only 43 percent of rural 15-year-olds,as people living in rural areas tend to join the labor market earlier.38.Gender inequalities in access to education also persist in transition to employment,with a significant i
287、nactivity rate among women even after age 25.Because women have less access to education,they join the labor market earlier:at age 15,the employment rate of women is 8 percentage points higher than for men(19 percent compared to 11 percent,respectively).However,it reaches a ceiling much faster and s
288、tays significantly lower.By age 30,only 78 percent of women have a job compared to 87 percent of men,and the inactivity rate among women is 15 percent at age 30 compared to only 4 percent for men.Women face significant social and cultural barriers,particularly in rural areas,which drive them toward
289、marriage and early pregnancies,creating a significant barrier to womens access to employment.39.Youth have low-quality jobs and work in the most vulnerable sectors of the labor market.Young people who join the labor market early mainly work as family workers(90 percent of rural youth and 72 percent
290、of urban youth aged 15).The work situation tends to improve for youth in urban areas as they age,with an increase in the rate of salaried employment,but in rural areas salaried employment is almost nonexistent;only 6 percent of those aged 30 in rural areas have salaried employment,compared to 33 per
291、cent in urban areas.FIGURE2.1.16Distribution of education level by employment type 8044892025284523265201020304050Percentage60708090100NonePrimarySecondary first cycleSecondary second cyclePost-secondaryWage workerTraineeFamily workerSelf-employedEmployerSource:Authors calculat
292、ions based on EHCVM 2018 data.28FIGURE2.1.17Transition from school to employment in urban areas101825 2530504049636266908285898693 94 9496951926 262845367697271747983 848578Mens age,yearsWomens age,yearsEmployedUnemployedIn schoolInactive52729323335010%20%
293、30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Source:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.FIGURE2.1.18Transition from school to employment in rural areas Mens age,yearsWomens age,yearsEmployedUnemployedIn schoolInactive52729323335494647566470 793 939897929495919846444
294、25557776375858482769083829010%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Source:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.29FIGURE2.1.19Type of employment of young people according to age in urban areas 3333628333632370662220253844423
295、748495857566457605060708090100Percentage02122232425Age,years26272829303132333435Wage workerFamily workerEmployerSelf-employedSource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.FIGURE2.1.20Type of employment of young people according to age in rural areas 3226581565
296、9968644553484636333226302925244272845962636469667067650070809042526272829303132333435Wage workerFamily workerEmployerSelf-employedPercentageAge,yearsSource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.30Togos few wage-employed worker
297、s are predominantly male and concentrated in the service sector.40.Salaried work increased from 11 percent to 16 percent of jobs between 2006 and 2018.Representing less than two of ten jobs in 2018,it remains essentially urban and male.Men occupy eight of ten salaried jobs in the public sector and m
298、ore than seven of ten in the private sector.Service activities account for the largest number of employees(80 percent of salaried jobs),ahead of industry(15 percent)and the agricultural sector(5percent).Although salaried work can cover a wide range of situations in terms of remuneration and working
299、conditions,it generally refers to a type of work highly prized because of its stable income.Just as women and rural workers are overrepresented in insecure jobs,based on duration of work,they are also excluded from salaried work.Rural women are the least well represented group with 5.1 percent of sa
300、laried jobs.In the public and private sector,urban workers occupy 69 percent and 76 percent of salaried jobs,respectively.Compared with other countries,salaried work remains the privilege of urban men in Ghana,Guinea,and Sierra Leone.Countries like Rwanda and Morocco,meanwhile,have succeeded in sign
301、ificantly increasing the share of salaried work in employment,even in rural areas.More than 60 percent of Togolese households work in non-agricultural activities,most of which are small and precarious.41.Non-agricultural family businesses are small and precarious and fairly widespread among Togolese
302、 households.Some 60 percent of households practiced a non-agricultural activity in the past 12 months.However,less than 8 percent of these non-agricultural enterprises have employees,and more than 97 percent of the enterprises use family labor.In addition,very few businesses(3 percent)have a tax ide
303、ntification number and the majority of them operate either at home(31 percent)or on the public highway(27 percent).FIGURE2.1.21Type of employment by gender and domicile for selected countries 466545294344677423638223032888837649348855
304、3501620142018GhanaGuineaMoroccoRwandaSierra LeoneTogo00708090100WomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenRuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrbanPercentageEmployerFamily workerSalar
305、ied workerSelf-employedSource:World BankJobs Indicators Benchmarking tool(I2D2)and Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.3142.The majority of non-agricultural businesses operate in the service sector.Retail and wholesale trade(32 percent)and food products processing and sale(30 percent)are t
306、he main activities households carry out.Other services(20 percent),the third main non-agricultural activity households carry out,includes the manufacture and sale of handicrafts,carpets,jewelry,and hairdressing,among others.In addition,it should be noted that 20 percent of households involved in non
307、-agricultural activities combine at least two differentactivities.43.Non-agricultural family businesses generate income year-round and are mainly run by women(63 percent).However,they are constrained in terms of financing and clients.Indeed,72 percent of the enterprises are financed by their own fun
308、ds and their main clients are essentially households.FIGURE2.1.22Size of non-farm businesses by type of employee35%81%55%18%10%1%Non-farm businesses with employeesNon-farm businesses with family workers020406080100Percentage1 employee24 employees5 employees or moreSource:Authors calculations based o
309、n EHCVM 2018 data.FIGURE2.1.23Types of non-farm activities undertaken by households0.34.04.19.611.012.119.830.231.805101520Percentage253035RentalRestaurantLiberal profession(doctor,translator,etc.)Textile manufacturingTransport/repairConstructionOther servicesFood processing and salesSmall businessS
310、ource:Authors calculations based on EHCVM 2018 data.322.2AN ECONOMY THAT CREATES JOBS,BUT NOT IN SUFFICIENT QUANTITY AND QUALITY 44.Despite some positive economic developments in the country over the past two decades,Togos economy is still characterized by untapped potential from its geographic loca
311、tion,demographic opportunities,and relative stability.Following a period of openness and investment in the early part of the century and a period of fiscal consolidation and pro-business measures,the country should be well-placed for strong economic growth.Indeed,the government has engaged in implem
312、enting an ambitious strategic roadmap with large public investment goals.However,a lack of productivity growth(especially in agriculture)hampers the development prospects of the country,while prospects for further growth from public investment are constrained by deteriorating fiscal space.Following
313、a period of moderate expansion in the first two decades of this century,recent international events have created significant challenges for the economic prospects of the country.45.Since the late 2000s,Togo has been in a period of sustained economic expansion supported by structural reforms,infrastr
314、ucture spending,and private sector investments.Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,Togos economic growth was relatively robust,reaching an average of 5.6 percent over the period 20122019.However,a rapid increase in public infrastructure investment up to 2017 led to a significant buildup in domestic debt
315、levels and services costs,which led the government to change course and undertake significant fiscal consolidation measures from 2017 to 2019.At the same time,business climate reforms(including measures easing business creation and transfer of property,receiving loans,construction permits,electricit
316、y connection,and trading across borders)supported dynamic private investment and helped maintain real GDP growth at an average of 4.9 percent.Since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic,some of the regained fiscal space was used to increase public investment,which helped prevent a recession in 2020(+1
317、.8 percent),while a sharp rebound in global trade contributed to the subsequent recovery in 2021(+5.3 percent).Disruptions associated with the war in Ukraine created significant headwinds in 2022,as reflected in decelerating external demand and rising energy,fertilizer,and food prices,which adversel
318、y impacted key sectors of the economy and dampened households purchasing power.Both rural poor who rely on agriculture for their own consumption or as a primary source of income and urban poor relying on imported food were adversely impacted.These shocks,combined with the insecurity in the Savanes r
319、egion,led the government to undertake emergency spending,which contributed to stabilizing growth at an estimated 4.9 percent in 2022,but increased the budget deficit to 8.4 percent of GDP.46.The deceleration in economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic has weighed on jobs and income,including i
320、n the formal sector.GDP growth went from 5.5 percent in 2019 to 1.8 percent in 2020,reflecting a decrease in private consumption and private investment due to a drop in household incomes from business interruption.A survey of 160 formal Togolese firms in May 2020,in the early days of the COVID-19 pa
321、ndemic,found that 13 percent were just partially operating,and 22 percent were temporarily closed,with tourism,hotels,restaurants,transport,logistics,and warehousing most affected by business closures.Small and medium enterprises(SMEs)were relatively more affected by business closures(25 percent)tha
322、n large enterprises(14 percent).Furthermore,96 percent of firms declared a reduction in sales over the 30 days preceding the survey,with almost half of surveyed firms declaring a reduction of more than 50 percent over the reporting period.Firms also reported putting 22 percent of employees on leave
323、without pay,reducing wages and/or benefits for 21 percent,and reducing working hours for 61 percent.25 Also,the number of firms created dropped by 46 percent between March 2020,when the first COVID-19 case was recorded,and April 2020,when the state of health emergency was declared.26 While data was
324、collected early in the pandemic,consultations during the World Bank Country Private Sector Diagnostic(CPSD)missions suggested that the situation for firms would likely worsen as the pandemic persisted.2725Etude de limpact du Covid-19 sur le Secteur Priv au Togo:Une valuation informe par des donnes(W
325、orld Bank,June 2020).26Centre de Formalit des Entreprises(CFE).https:/cfetogo.tg/statistiques-10.html.Accessed on September 6,2021.27World Bank,Togo CPSD,forthcoming.3347.Rising inflation has significantly impacted real income gains in 2022,particularly for low-income earners.Consumer Price Inflatio
326、n peaked at 7.5 percent in 2022,up from 4.5 percent in 2021 and an average of less than 2 percent over the preceding decade.While domestic food prices have been the most important driver of inflationary pressures in 2022,the rising cost of imported goods played an increasing role,with elevated energ
327、y prices translating into rising transport,food,and housing costs,as reflected in core inflation remaining above 6 percent.Elevated inflation is having broad-based effects on the domestic economy,affecting the most vulnerable populations through the rising cost of basic goods while further stressing
328、 public finances.For agricultural households,the shock to energy and fertilizer prices associated with the war in Ukraine was exacerbated but more variable rainfalls in recent years,further impacting livelihoods.Poverty is decreasing but remains high in many regions.48.Togos performance in raising l
329、iving standards has fallen short of its potential,and the COVID-19 pandemic nearly halted poverty reduction.Although poverty has declined in recent years,more than two-fifths of the population still lives in poverty.The poverty rate(using the national poverty line)decreased from 58.7 percent in 2011
330、 to 55.1 percent in 2015,and recent estimates suggest that poverty continued to fall to reach 45.5 percent in 201819.28 Also,inequalityas measured by the Gini indexdecreased by 0.013 percentage points between 2011 and 2015;its contribution to poverty reduction is modest compared to growth(1.4 versus
331、 2.2).Economic repercussions from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine are likely to deteriorate the welfare of the population.The poverty rate also remains high compared to leading WAEMU economies,while inequality is the second highest in the region after Burkina Faso.2949.Slow improvement
332、in living standards partly reflects low labor productivity,falling labor income,and low job quality.Labor productivity expanded 3 percent per year between 2008 and 2016,higher than 28Based on the new WAEMU household survey:Enqute Harmonise sur les Conditions de Vie des Mnages(EHCVM)but could not be
333、strictly compared with the previous national household surveys.29Cross-country comparison of the EHCVM 2018/19.FIGURE2.2.1GDP growth and per capita income,2000016GhanaTogoRwandaBeninSub-Saharan AfricaGuinea2000720092009604662000200420082012201682,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,00080060040020006420246Consta