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1、INTERNATIONALDEBT REPORT2023International Debt Report 2023International Debt Report 2023 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 26 25 24 23This work is a
2、 product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accu
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7、ommons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribu-tion:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable f
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10、ontained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permis
11、sion from the copy-right owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN(paper):978-1-
12、4648-2032-8ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-2033-5DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-2032-8Cover photo:Dominic Chavez/World Bank.Further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Parul Agarwal/World Bank and Bill Pragluski/Critical Stages,LLC.Library of Congress Control Number:2023919990vContentsForeword ixAcknowle
13、dgments xiIntroduction:International Debt Statistics at 50Past,Present,and Future xiiiKey Takeaways xviiAbbreviations xixPART 1.Overview 1Chapter 1.Analyses of External Debt Stocks and DebtFlows as of End-2022 3Trends in External Debt Stock,201222 3Trends in External Debt Stock of IDA-EligibleCountr
14、ies,201222 5Debt Indicators,201222 8Debt Servicing Costs,201222 13Trends in External Debt Flows,201222 14New Debt Commitments,201222 19Notes 24References 24Chapter 2.The Macroeconomic and Debt Outlookfor2023 and Beyond 25Introduction 25Notes 28References 29Chapter 3.Charting Improvement in PublicDeb
15、t Transparency and the Quality of Debt Reporting 31Efforts to Improve Debt Transparency 31Direct and Indirect Disclosure of PublicDebtData 32Notes 34Reference 34Chapter 4.The Debtor Reporting System andthe NeedforInnovative Approaches to Debt Management 35Introduction 35Portfolio Analysis 35Active P
16、ortfolio Management 37Notes 39References 39Chapter 5.The International Debt StatisticsDatabase:A Gold Mine for Researchers 41Introduction 41A Wealth of Data 41Using IDS Arrears Data to Identify Debt Distress Events 42Note 44References 44PART 2.Aggregate and Country Tables 45All Low-and Middle-Income
17、 Countries 47East Asia and Pacific 48Europe and Central Asia 49Latin America and the Caribbean 50Middle East and North Africa 51South Asia 52Sub-Saharan Africa 53Afghanistan 54Albania 55Algeria 56Angola 57Argentina 58Armenia 59Azerbaijan 60Bangladesh 61Belarus 62Belize 63Benin 64Bhutan 65I N T E R N
18、 A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 3viBolivia 66Bosnia and Herzegovina 67Botswana 68Brazil 69Bulgaria 70Burkina Faso 71Burundi 72Cabo Verde 73Cambodia 74Cameroon 75Central African Republic 76Chad 77China 78Colombia 79Comoros 80Congo,Democratic Republic of 81Congo,Republic of 82Costa Rica 83Cte
19、 dIvoire 84Djibouti 85Dominica 86Dominican Republic 87Ecuador 88Egypt,Arab Republic of 89El Salvador 90Eritrea 91Eswatini 92Ethiopia 93Fiji 94Gabon 95Gambia,The 96Georgia 97Ghana 98Grenada 99Guatemala 100Guinea 101Guinea-Bissau 102Guyana 103Haiti 104Honduras 105India 106Indonesia 107Iran,Islamic Rep
20、ublic of 108Iraq 109Jamaica 110Jordan 111Kazakhstan 112Kenya 113Kosovo 114Kyrgyz Republic 115Lao Peoples Democratic Republic 116Lebanon 117Lesotho 118Liberia 119Madagascar 120Malawi 121Maldives 122Mali 123Mauritania 124Mauritius 125Mexico 126Moldova 127Mongolia 128Montenegro 129Morocco 130Mozambique
21、 131Myanmar 132Nepal 133Nicaragua 134Niger 135Nigeria 136North Macedonia 137Pakistan 138Papua New Guinea 139Paraguay 140Peru 141Philippines 142Russian Federation 143Rwanda 144Samoa 145So Tom and Prncipe 146Senegal 147Serbia 148Sierra Leone 149Solomon Islands 150Somalia 151South Africa 152Sri Lanka 1
22、53St.Lucia 154St.Vincent and the Grenadines 155Sudan 156Suriname 157Syrian Arab Republic 158Tajikistan 159Tanzania 160Thailand 161Timor-Leste 162Togo 163Tonga 164Tunisia 165Trkiye 166Turkmenistan 167C o n t e n t sviiUganda 168Ukraine 169Uzbekistan 170Vanuatu 171Viet Nam 172Yemen,Republic of 173Zamb
23、ia 174Zimbabwe 175APPENDIX 177Data Sources 179Country Groups 181Regional Groups 181Income Groups 182Glossary 183BOXES1.1 Allocation of the IMFs Special DrawingRights in 2022 41.2 External Debt Data:Concepts,Sources,and Coverage 71.3 Debt-to-GDP versus Debt-to-GNI Ratios 91.4 World Bank Income and Le
24、nding Classifications Used in InternationalDebt Report2023 101.5 China:The Largest Borrower among Low-and Middle-Income Countries 151.6 IDA Grants:Contributing to ReducingDebt Vulnerabilities 201.7 China:Low-and Middle-Income Countries Largest Bilateral Creditor 22FIGURES1.1 Percent Change in Extern
25、al Debt Stocksof Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222 31.2 Share of External Debt Stocks of Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222 4B1.1.1 SDR Allocations as a Share of GeneralGovernment External Debt andInternational Reserves,by Region,2022 51.3 Composition of Debt Stock in Low-andMiddle-Income C
26、ountries,201222 51.4 Creditor Composition of Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt for IDA-Eligible Countries,201222 61.5 External Debt-to-GNI Ratios for Low-and Middle-Income Countries andIDA-Eligible Countries,201222 9B1.4.1 Number of Low-and Middle-Income Countries and Guyana Cov
27、ered in International Debt Report 2023,by FY2024 Income and Lending Groups 101.6 Change in External Debt Stock and GNI,by Income and Lending Group,201222 111.7 Change in External Debt Stock and GNI,by Region,201222 111.8 Change in External Debt Stock and Exports,by Income and Lending Group,201222 12
28、1.9 Total Debt Service and Interest Paymentson External Debt for IDA-Eligible Countries,201222 131.10 Net Debt Inflows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries,by Maturity,201222 14B1.5.1 Net Financial Flows to China,201222 151.11 Bond Flows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries(excluding China),byBorrower T
29、ype,2021 vs.2022 171.12 Net Flows to IDA-Eligible Countries,byRegion and Creditor Type,2022 181.13 Net Equity Inflows and External Debt Flows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222 181.14 Loan Commitments to IDA-Eligible andIBRD-Only Countries,201222 19B1.6.1 IDA Gross and Net Inflows of Creditsa
30、nd Grants to IDA-Eligible Countries,201222 201.15 New Commitments from Multilateral Creditors to IDA-Eligible and IBRD-Only Countries,201222 211.16 New Commitments from Bilateral Creditors to IDA-Eligible and IBRD-Only Countries,201222 211.17 Percent Share of Loan Commitments to IDA-Eligible Countri
31、es,by CreditorType,201222 22I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 3viiiB1.7.1 Low-and Middle-Income Countries Debt to China,by Region,201222 22B1.7.2 Commitments from China to Low-andMiddle-Income Countries,byRegion201222 232.1 Percent Change in Gross Domestic Product Growth,201824 252
32、.2 Changes in External Debt-to-GNI Ratios,19702022 272.3 Composition of Government Expenditures in Low-and Middle-Income Countries,2010s vs.2020s 283.1 Performance and Policy Actions,July 1,2020,to June 30,2023 324.1 Distribution of Interest Rates on Outstanding External Public Debt acrossIDA-Only C
33、ountries 364.2 Histogram of Commitment Fees across the Debt Portfolio of OfficialLoans 375.1 Risk of External Debt Distress among IDA-Eligible Countries,200623 425.2 Projected Debt Service Payments andExternal Default Episodes,SelectedCountries,19702021 43TABLES1.1 External Debt Stock of IDA-Eligibl
34、e Countries,201222 61.2 Net Debt Inflows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222 15ixForewordThe International Debt Report 2023 arrives at a time of rising fears about unsustainable debt in developing countries.As these countries grapple with an array of destabilizing economic forces,the poorest a
35、mong them are at increasing risk of tumbling into a debt crisis.Today,one of every four developing countries is effectively priced out of international capital markets.In the past three years alone,the number of sovereign debt defaults in these countries has surged to 18,outstripping the total of th
36、e previous two decades.For the poorest countries,debt has become a nearly paralyzing burden:28 countries eligible to borrow from the WorldBanks International Development Association(IDA)are now at high risk of debt distress.Eleven are in distress.These developments constitute a grave danger to prosp
37、ects for progress on global development goals.Developing countries today also confront higher energy prices,steeper interest rates,and geopolitical turmoil in key regions of the world.It is a combustible mixnot unlike the conditions 50 years ago that prompted the World Bank to take a crucial step to
38、 advance debt transparency across the world.In 1973,having established the Debtor Reporting System(DRS)two decades earlier to monitor the debt of our borrowers,we decided the time had come to use it as a public force for goodto guide sustainable financing to advance development in developing countri
39、es.Debt crises tend to recur.The surest way to prevent them is to adopt preemptive policies.But that requires accurate,timely,and comprehensive data.So we began to publish an annual report outlining key trends in the debt of all World Bank borrowers.Today,our International Debt Statistics database h
40、as become the most comprehensive publicly available source of comparable cross-country data on the external debt of developing countries.This year marks the debt reports 50th consecutive year of publication.With this edition,we have expanded its analytical scope.The report now goes beyond strict rep
41、orting of the latest debt data.It also features analysis of emerging trends in debt management and debt transparency.International Debt Report 2023 sounds an alarm about the danger confronting low-and middle-income countriesparticularly the poorest.In 2022,the latest year for which data are availabl
42、e,low-and middle-income countries paid a record US$443.5 billion to service their external public and publicly guaranteed debt.In a time of pinched government budgets,these payments diverted spending away from health,education,and other critical needs.Debt servicing costs on public and publicly guar
43、anteed debt are projected to grow by 10 percent for all developing countries over the 202324 periodand by nearly 40 percent for low-income countries.Countrieseligible to borrow from IDA are likely to face a rough ride in the coming years:interest payments on their total external debt stock have quad
44、rupled since 2012,to an all-time high of US$23.6 billion.These payments are consuming an ever-larger share of export revenues,putting some countries just one shock away from a debt crisis.More than a third of this debt involves variable interest rates that could rise suddenly.I N T E R N A T I O N A
45、 L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 3xBesides the steeper interest rates that all countries are paying on their debt,the poorest face an additional burden:the accumulated principal,interest,and fees they incurred for the privilege of debt service suspension under the Group of Twentys Debt Service Suspensio
46、n Initiative.The exact costs of that privilege will not be known until the data are reported in 2024.But it is safe to say the costs will not be smalland poor countries will need more global help to ease their debt than they are receiving now.This report makes it clear who hasand who has notthrown a
47、 lifeline to countries struggling to meet key development objectives.As interest rates climbed in advanced economies,private creditors followed the money in 2022:they largely withdrew from developing countries,pulling out US$185 billion more in principal repayments than they disbursed in loans.That
48、marked the first time since 2015 that they have withdrawn more funds than they put into developing countries.The World Bank,along with other multilateral development banks,stepped in to help close the gap.Multilateral creditors provided a record US$115 billion in new financing for developing countri
49、es in 2022,nearly half of which came from the World Bank.For many countriesparticularly the poorestmultilateral creditors were the primary source of new financing in 2022.Through IDA,the World Bank provided US$16.9 billion more in new financing for these countries than it received in principal repay
50、mentsnearly three times the comparable number a decade ago.In addition,the World Bank disbursed US$6.1 billion in grants to these countries,three times the amount in 2012.Over the remainder of this decade,full disclosure of public debt data will remain as critical to sustainable borrowing and rules-
51、based lending practices as it was 50 years ago.Ensuring such transparency is seldom straightforward.It is painstaking work.It demands steady engagement with borrowers,creditors,and academia to identity and close gaps.It calls for building and maintaining debt reporting systems that can stay abreast
52、of the rapidly changing landscape of domestic and international creditors.We hope that reports like this will lead to greater transparency in reporting and will facilitate sharper analytics and improved debt sustainability.Indermit S.GillSenior Vice President and Chief EconomistThe World Bank Groupx
53、iThis volume was prepared by the World Banks Debt Statistics Team of the Development Data Group,led by Evis Rucaj and comprising Parul Agarwal,Ogma Dessirama Bale,Arzu Aytekin Balibek,Kifaye Didem Bayar,Matthew Benjamin,Sylvie Kabaziga Bishweka,Wendy Huang,Chineze Olive Okafor,Malvina Pollock,Rubena
54、 Sukaj,Tin Yu To,Rasiel Vellos,and Bedri Zymeri.The work was carried out under the management of Nada Hamadeh and the direction of Haishan Fu.The team was assisted by Nancy Kebe.The overview was prepared by the Debt Statistics Team,with contributions from Sebastian Andreas Horn from the Development
55、Economics Vice Presidency;David Mihalyi and Diego Rivetti with guidance from Frederico Gil Sander from the Macroeconomics,Trade and Investment Global Practice;Xubei Luo from the Development Finance Vice Presidency;and Hayley Marie Pallan and Naotaka Sugawara with guidance from M.Ayhan Kose and Carlo
56、sArteta from the Development Economics Prospects Group.Valuable guidance was provided by Indermit S.Gill,senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank Group,and Haishan Fu,chief statistician of the World Bank and director of the Development Data Group.Valuable feedback was provided by
57、Brian R.Pinto,former senior advisor at the World Bank.The Development Economics Vice Presidency;Macroeconomics,Trade and Investment Global Practice;Development Finance Vice Presidency;and Development Economics Prospects Group of the World Bank provided helpful feedback on the overview section.The fi
58、nal statistics were reviewed by country economists from the Macroeconomics,Trade and Investment Global Practice.The cover was designed by Parul Agarwal and Bill Pragluski.Mark McClure,JewelMcFadden,and Orlando Mota coordinated the publication and dissemination of thisvolume.Kristin Milhollin,Joseph
59、Rebello,and Shane Kimo Romig managed the communications surrounding the release.The accompanying International Debt Statistics electronic products were prepared with support from a team led by Sebastian Ariel Dolber,Ramgopal Erabelly,and Kunal Patel,and comprising Yuliyan Nikolaev Bogdanov,Rajesh Ku
60、mar Danda,Svetoslava Georgieva Dimitrova,Debora Manandhar,Vijayakumar Juttu Mohan,Gangadhar Simhani,and Tsvetelina Nikolova Stefanova.AcknowledgmentsxiiiThe International Debt Report 2023 is the 50th edition of the World Banks annual publica-tion on external debt along with the International Debt St
61、atistics(IDS)database,1 the most comprehensive and transparent source of verifiable,cross-country comparable external debt data of low-and middle-income countries(LMICs).Much has changed over 50 years.Yet there are many similarities between 1973,the first year the World Bank publicly disseminated th
62、e data it collected through its Debtor Reporting System(DRS)on the external debt obligations of its borrowers,and now.Much like this year,1973 was marked by a challenging global economy with multiple destabilizing forces.The Bretton Woods international monetary system had recently been abandoned.An
63、oil crisis began that gener-ated inflation through higher energy and commodity prices and threw the world economy into recession.Total World Bank lending reached US$3.6 billion that yearhigher than any previous year.It achieved a goal set by World Bank President Robert McNamara to double World Bankp
64、rovided assistance in 196973 over the previous five-year period.Today the world is emerging from a pandemic that shook economies,disrupted international trade,and ignited global inflation.LMICs in particular are struggling with the effects of an ongo-ing war in Europe,rising energy prices,sharply hi
65、gher interest rates,and slowing growth.World Bank Group loans,grants,and guarantees have grown to more than US$128 billion and are as critical as ever to the World Banks central mission of ending extreme poverty on a livable planet.Fifty years on,however,one challenge remains the same:debt levels an
66、d debt servicing costs are rising in many LMICsfueling fears of impending debt crises.In 1973,the World Bank stood out as an early champion of debt transparency by recogniz-ing that public debt should be publicly disclosed and that debt statistics drawn from the DRS constituted an important public g
67、ood.The World Bank committed to an annual publication on debt,accompanied by the dissemination of a database that provides comprehensive and timely information on the external debt stocks and flows of LMICs.The World Bank remains steadfast in that commitment today.In fact,the World Bank is now bette
68、r equipped to disseminate accurate,verifiable,and transparent data about external debt held by LMICs.Over the past 50 years,its annual publication on debt has undergone numer-ous improvements and name changes.Multiple expansions of DRS reporting requirements have ensured that data collected have kep
69、t pace with the ever-changing landscape of international finance for LMICs and continue to meet the evolving needs of policy makers and the broader international community.Introduction:International Debt Statistics at 50Past,Present,and FutureI N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 3xivH
70、istory of the DRSTo understand how the International Debt Report arrived at its current form,it is worth reviewing the history of the World Banks collection and dissemination of external debt data and how those processes have changed through the years.The World Bank began collecting data on the exte
71、rnal debt obligations of its borrowers in the 1950s.Instituted in 1951,the DRS made the provision of detailed,loan-by-loan informa-tion of all public and publicly guaranteed long-term external debt a condition of borrowing from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.This informati
72、on was seen as both essential input to the Banks macroeconomic analyses and an assurance to its bondholders that the creditworthiness of the countries to which it lent was being closely monitored.The require-ment was extended to borrowing from the International Development Association(IDA)when it wa
73、s established in 1960.By the mid-1960s,the Economics Department of the World Bank was drawing on DRS data to produce regular debt reports and support a burgeoning body of research on debt-related issues.The first major expansion of the DRS reporting requirement came in 1970,when reporting of private
74、 nonguaranteed external debt was initiated.This development reflected the emergence in some of the World Banks more advanced borrowers of private sector entities that were suffi-ciently creditworthy to borrow externally without the need for a guarantee from the sovereign or other public entity.The n
75、ew directive required aggregate reporting of private nonguaranteed debt stocks and flows,grouped by type of financing.Initially,many countries resisted the new requirements on the grounds that these data could not be obtained without the introduction of formal exchange controls,would raise private s
76、ector concerns about government interference,and could incentiv-ize misreporting.Nevertheless,private nonguaranteed debt currently constitutes about 45 percent of the total long-term external debt of LMICs,and these data are routinely reported to the DRS.A Sea ChangeInitially,the World Bank used the
77、 debt data it collected solely for internal purposes.A sea change came in 1973 with the publication of World Debt Tables,which marked the first in an unbroken 50-year series of external debt data publications.Mexicos announcement in 1982 that it would default on its external debt sparked a debt cris
78、is that swept the globe.Over the ensuing decade,two-thirds of DRS reporting countries were forced to reschedule their external debt,most on multiple occasions.The DRS had begun to collect information on restructured debt service payments in the late 1970s,but the reporting requirement around debt re
79、structuring expanded significantly in the 1980s and thereafter.The additional DRS reporting requirements paralleled the multiplicity of innovations that emerged from the debt restructuring process,including discounted buybacks,collateralized bonds,debt reduction measured in terms of present value,an
80、d a range of debt swap mechanisms.The over-view section of the World Banks annual publication on debt also expanded to include detailed analyses and quantification of each debt restructuring arrangement concluded with official and private creditors,in the process becoming the international community
81、s recognized reference point for comprehensive and accurate information on debt restructuring.xvI n t R o D U C t I o nThe fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 and collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1991 had important ramifications for the world and for the World Bank.In the three-year period 199092,24 East
82、European and former Soviet republics joined the World Bank.Most became borrowers and had to be absorbed into the DRS.During this period,LMICs also began to shift from manual debt record-ing and reporting systems to computerized debt management platforms.In 1985,only 10 countries reported to the DRS
83、electronically.By 2000,this number had swelled to over half of DRS report-ing countries.World Bank staff managing the DRS played a major role both in facilitating the new reporting norms and in ensuring that standards,definitions,and recording principles in the debt management software accorded with
84、 international standards and reporting requirements.The 2000s was a decade marked by the delivery of widespread debt reduction for the worlds poorest countries.Endorsement of the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries(HIPC)Initiative by the boards of the World Bank and the International Monetary F
85、und in the fall of 1999 accelerated the process launched in 1996 to reduce the debt of the poorest countries to sustainable levels.Since then,36 eligible countries have reached the HIPC Completion Point and received substantive debt relief through the HIPC Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief
86、 Initiative established in 2005.Measuring the level of debt relief required,and its impact,was challenged by weak debt management capacity in almost all HIPC-eligible countries and poor or nonexistent recording of prior restructuring arrangements.Meeting the widespread demand both internally and fro
87、m the international community for an accurate and comprehensive database for all HIPC-eligible countries,reflecting external debt stock and debt service before and after debt relief,was a core priority for the DRS.The decade following the global financial crisis of 2008 was marked by a surge in borr
88、ow-ing by LMICs,fueled by unprecedented low interest rates and the emergence of nontraditional creditors.This surge was accompanied by an array of more complex lending instruments;a sharp increase in contingent debt liabilities associated with nonguaranteed borrowing by state-owned enterprises,publi
89、c-private partnerships,and special purpose vehicles;and the rising importance of borrowing in domestic debt markets.The focus of the DRS was twofold:first,validation of data reported by borrowers on which the accuracy and comprehensiveness of IDS depend,in order to eliminate data discrepancies and g
90、aps;and second,expansion in the scope of the data set to provide a comprehensive breakdown by sector of borrower.To this end,the DRS drew extensively on the data reported by borrowers to the joint International Monetary FundWorld Bank Quarterly External Debt Statistics and Quarterly Public Sector De
91、bt,managed in parallel with the DRS.It also now maintains a regular dialogue with national debt managers and draws on all available borrower and creditor publica-tions to identify potential data gaps.As a result of these changes and improvements,the debt data the World Bank now dissemi-nates are gra
92、nular to an extent that earlier users would find unrecognizable.The IDS database stands as the most extensive and transparent source of verifiable,cross-country comparable external debt data of LMICs.Yet much more still needs to be done.Moving ForwardThe total debt stock in LMICs has been on an upwa
93、rd trajectory since 2016 and surged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.Over the past decade,debt accumulation in LMICs has I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 3xvialso outpaced economic growth,raising serious concerns about the ability to service that debt.Thesituation is more acut
94、e in the poorest countries eligible for IDA resources;those countries have accumulated debt at a faster pace than other LMICs.Today,debt servicing burdens remain sizeable in LMICs and are poised to grow.The cost of servicing external debt in 202324 is expected to rise significantly from that in the
95、previous two years,and the cost for low-income countries is projected to be much higher still.These projected increases in debt service take place against a backdrop of rising global interest rates and largely unfavorable exchange rate movements.Servicing external debt could,therefore,become increas
96、-ingly burdensome for many countries in coming years and could crowd out spending on other priorities.As a result,disclosure of public debt data is as critical to sustainable borrowing and lending practices today as it was when the first World Bank report on external debt was published 50years ago.A
97、nd,although the DRS and the International Debt Report have improved immeasurably over the years,plans are already laid to make further enhancements.DRS priorities to be implemented over the next two to three years center on reformulating the DRS to fully reflect current borrowing patterns in LMICs a
98、nd the plethora of new lending instruments,in addition to expanding the reporting requirement to support current data needs.The most important and far-reaching element will be responding to calls to extend the cover-age of the DRS reporting requirement to the domestic component of public debt to ref
99、lect its increasing importance in LMICs overall debt portfolios.Efforts to close data gaps to enhance data quality and coverage remain an ongoing imperative,with a particular emphasis on achieving loan-by-loan coverage of the external obligations of state-owned enterprises in which the govern-ment h
100、olds a share of 50 percent or more.These obligations may not have an explicit guarantee from the sovereign government,but they nevertheless constitute an implicit contingent liability for the central government.The platform that has long been used to record and disseminate data captured through the
101、DRS is now being replaced with a state-of-the-art cloud-based system to accommodate all the new data requirements,allow for faster and easier electronic transfer of DRS reports from national debt systems,and provide users of the IDS database expanded access and the capability to extract customized r
102、eports to support policy making,research,and analysis.Despite the many changes in international borrowing and lending over the past five decades,the priorities and objectives of the DRS remain constant.First and foremost,they are to assist DRS reporters in compiling and disclosing comprehensive,accu
103、rate,and timely public debt data.Second,they aim to ensure that the information the World Bank collects and disseminates in the IDS database reflects the current needs of policy makers and the broader international community.Finally,they spearhead the agenda for debt transparency that the World Bank
104、 has long recognized as the key to sustainable public borrowing and accountable rules-based lending practices.Note1.For more about the IDS database,see https:/www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-statistics.xviiOver the past decade,the rise in the external debt stock of low-and middle-income countries
105、(LMICs)has outpaced economic growth,raising concerns about these countries ability to ser-vice their debt.The situation is especially worrisome in the poorest countries that are eligible for International Development Association(IDA)resources,where external debt stocks have risen at an even faster p
106、ace than other LMICs.This decade-long asymmetry between economic growth and debt accumulation has created or exacerbated debt vulnerabilities in many LMICs,and actions to address these vulnerabilities have become increasingly more urgent.Currently,about 60 percent of IDA-eligible countries are asses
107、sed at high risk of debt distress or are already in debt distress.Key takeaways from the 2022 data include the following:External debt stock of LMICs fell in 2022 for the first time since 2015,decreasing by 3.4percent,to US$9.0 trillion in 2022 from US$9.3 trillion in 2021.The decrease was due to ne
108、gative debt flows(disbursements minus principal repayments)and the appreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies in which external debt of LMICs is denomi-nated.Long-term and short-term debt stocks fell at much the same pace,with the decline in long-term external debt stocks due prima
109、rily to the 5.0 percent decrease in obligations to private creditors.The combined external debt stock of IDA-eligible countries rose 2.7 percent in 2022 to an all-time high of US$1.1 trillion,more than double the 2012 level.Total net debt flows(loan disbursements minus principal repayments)to LMICs
110、turned negative in 2022 for the first time since 2015 to outflows of US$185 billion,a stark contrast to inflows of US$556 billion recorded in 2021.Both short-and long-term debt flows were negative in 2022US$90.6 billion and US$94.5 billion,respectivelywith long-term debt flows at a record low and ne
111、gative for the first time since the beginning of the millennium.The fall in net long-term debt inflows was due entirely to the US$189 billion outflow from private creditors,reflecting a sharp retrenchment in bond issuance by sovereigns and other public and private sector borrowers.Tighter monetary p
112、olicy in advanced economies to curb inflation raised borrowing costs,pricing some LMICs out of the markets,and offered investors attractive returns in the US and European bond markets.As a result,there was a net outflow of US$127.1 billion from LMICs to bondholders in 2022,compared to an average ann
113、ual inflow of$202 billion in 201921.The ratio of total external debt stock to gross national income(GNI)for LMICs declined by 2 percentage points in 2022,to 24 percent.This decline resulted from an increase in the US dollar value of LMICs combined GNI,which rose 5.8 percent in 2022,to US$37.4 trilli
114、on,a rebound in economic growth and a 3.4 percent fall in external debt stock.Over the past decade,low-income countries accumulated external debt at a faster rate than middle-income countries.The debt stock of low-income countries increased by 109 percent from 2012 to 2022,whereas GNI rose 33 percen
115、t.In contrast,in middle-income countries external debt stock rose 58 percent,only moderately more than GNI,which increased by 51 percent.In IDA-eligible countries,external debt stock accumulation significantly Key Takeaways I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 3xviiioutpaced GNI growt
116、h from 201222,increasing 134 percent compared to a 53 percent rise in GNI over the same period.New external loan commitments plummeted in 2022 and recorded the largest decline in a decade.New commitments to public and publicly guaranteed sector entities fell in 2022 for a second consecutive year,dec
117、reasing 23 percent to US$372 billion to their lowest level since 2011.The principal driver was the 33 percent fall in new commitments from private creditors to US$218 billion,their lowest level since 2011,with the decline from bondholders the most drastic.New bonds issuance by LMICs in international
118、 markets dropped to US$114 billion,less than half the level of issuance in 2021,and new bond issuance by IDA-eligible countries fell by more than three-quarters to US$3.1 billion.An important exception was new commitments by multilateral creditors,which rose 1.5percent in 2022 to US$115.6 billion.Mu
119、ltilateral creditors continued to step up and partly offset the decline in lending from private creditors.New commitments from the World Bank(International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and IDA)rose a further 1.3 percent in 2022,to US$53.5 billion,equivalent to 46 percent of new commitment
120、s by all multilateral institutions and an all-time high.For many countries,including most of the worlds poorest,multilateral lenders were the primary source of new external financing in 2022.Public and publicly guaranteed(PPG)debt service payments by LMICs(including the International Monetary Fund)t
121、otaled US$443.5 billion in 2022,the highest level in history,and are forecast to continue to grow.Debt service on PPG external debt alone is expected to rise 10 percent in 202324 from the previous two years.This increase takes place during a time of rising interest rates and largely unfavorable exch
122、ange rate movements,which exacerbated the fiscal burden of external debt service payments.As a result,servicing external debt could become increasingly burdensome for many LMICs and could crowd out spending on other priorities.In addition to the release of the 2022 external debt data in the newly up
123、dated online International Debt Statistics database,this edition of the International Debt Report Provides analysis of the debt situation of LMICs and rising debt vulnerabilities against the backdrop of global monetary and fiscal tightening;Presents forward-looking analyses of the debt-related chall
124、enges LMICs face and the public and external debt burdens that may evolve in the context of prospects for growth in 2023 and beyond;Draws on outcomes of the IDA Sustainable Development Finance Policy to show how it is catalyzing greater debt transparency and enhancing comprehensive and timely report
125、ing to the Debtor Reporting System;Discusses the need for innovative approaches to debt management in LMICs and the value that World Bank debt data can bring to this process;and Explores how the wealth of information in the International Debt Statistics database could help create an early warning sy
126、stem for debt distress in LMICs.xixAfDB African Development BankAFESD Arab Fund for Economic and Social DevelopmentBADEA Arab Bank for Economic Development in AfricaBCIE Central American Bank for Economic IntegrationBDEAC Development Bank of the Central African StatesCIBM China Interbank Bond Market
127、DRS Debtor Reporting SystemDSEP Debt Sustainability Enhancement ProgramEIB European Investment BankFDI foreign direct investmentFTSE Financial Times Stock ExchangeFY fiscal yearGDP gross domestic productGNI gross national incomeHIPC Heavily Indebted Poor CountriesIBRD International Bank for Reconstr
128、uction and Development IDA International Development AssociationIDB Inter-American Development BankIDS International Debt StatisticsIMF International Monetary FundLIC DSF Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income CountriesLMICs low-and middle-income countries MPA multipronged approach NPV net pre
129、sent valueOPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesPCO Program of Creditor OutreachPPA Performance and Policy ActionPPG public and publicly guaranteed debtSDFP Sustainable Development Finance PolicySDRs special drawing rightsSOE state-owned enterpriseSSA Sub-Saharan AfricaAbbreviationsA
130、ll dollar amounts are in US dollars unless otherwise indicated.PART 1Overview 31.Analyses of External Debt Stocks and DebtFlows as of End-2022Trends in External Debt Stock,201222The external debt stock of low-and middle-income countries(LMICs)decreased by 3.4percent,from US$9.3 trillion in 2021 to U
131、S$9.0 trillion in 2022(figure 1.1).This decrease marked the first deviation from the upward debt trajectory that has characterized this group of countries since 2015.The external debt stock of countries eligible for International Development Association(IDA)resources,however,increased by 2.7 percent
132、 in 2022,to an all-time high of US$1.1 trillion.Despite the slight decrease in 2022,the external debt stock of LMICs remained at unprecedented high levels following more than a decade of rapid debt accumulation.The main contributors to the 2022 decline were net debt outflows in combination with adju
133、stments in the exchange rates between the currencies in which external debt is denominated and an appreciating US dollar.The decrease in the external debt stock of LMICs expressed in US dollar terms was also the result of appreciation of the US dollar against many major currencies in 2022.As the US
134、dollar climbed against the Chinese yuan,euro,Japanese yen,British pound,and many other currencies,debt stock denominated in these currencies shrank in 2022 when converted into US dollars.TheUS dollar climbed more than 14 percent against the yen,9 percent against the yuan,6 percent against the euro,a
135、nd 5 percent against special drawing rights,because these four cur-rencies made up the largest portions of IDA debt stock not denominated in US dollars.Although the appreciation of the US dollar translated into a fall in debt stock expressed in US dollar terms for IDA-eligible countries,it does not
136、relieve the fiscal burden of external debt payments for borrowing countries.Debt service comes at a higher cost for a country if the national currency has depreciated against the denomination currency of the countrys external debt obligations.China,which accounted for more than a quarter(26.6 percen
137、t)of the combined end-2022 external debt stock of LMICs,Figure 1.1 Percent Change in External Debt Stocks of Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222PercentSource:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:IDA=International Development Association.20Low-andmiddle-incomecountries
138、ChinaLow-andmiddle-incomecountries(excludingChina)IDA-eligiblecountriesLow-andmiddle-incomecountries(excludingChina andIDA-eligiblecountries)Average 2012 to 201920212022I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 34drove the trend(figure 1.2).In 2022,Chinas external debt stock declined 11.6
139、percent,to US$2.4 trillion.When China is excluded,the total external debt stock of LMICs remained broadly unchanged in 2022,reaching a record level of US$6.6 trillion,marginally above the end-2021 level and representing a much slower 0.04 percent accumulation.The exter-nal debt of LMICs continued to
140、 be heavily concentrated in 10 middle-income countries(not including China),1 whose combined debt stock as of end-2022 accounted for 43 percent of the total external debt of LMICs.The total debt stock of these 10 borrowing countries declined 1.8percent in 2022.This overall decline masked a wide dive
141、rgence in external debt stock trends at the country level during 2022,ranging from a 7 percent increase for Colombia to a 20.3 percent decline for the Russian Federation.Excluding China,long-term public and publicly guaranteed(PPG)external debt stockincluding use of International Monetary Fund credi
142、t and special drawing rights allocation(box1.1)of LMICs decreased marginally by 1 percent to US$3.3 trillion in 2022,equivalent to 51 percent of total external debt stock(figure 1.3).Long-term private nonguaranteed(PNG)external debt declined 2.6 percent to US$2.1 trillion,equivalent to 33 percent of
143、 total external debt stock.Both PPG and PNG debt stock were affected by a tightening of global financial conditions.During the last decade,the ratio of PPG external debt to total debt stock has Figure 1.2 Share of External Debt Stocks of Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222PercentSource:World Bank
144、 International Debt Statistics database.Note:The 10 largest borrowers are based on total external debt stock at end-2022.Excluding China,they are Argentina,Brazil,Colombia,India,Indonesia,Mexico,the Russian Federation,South Africa,Thailand,and Trkiye.0070809020017201
145、820022Top 10 countries,excluding ChinaChinaOther low-and middle-income countriesBox 1.1 Allocation of the IMFs Special Drawing Rights in 2022In August 2021,the International Monetary Fund(IMF)made a general allocation of special drawing rights(SDRs)equivalent to US$650 billion.The newly c
146、reated SDRs were credited to IMF members in proportion to their existing quotas in the Fund.The allocations main purpose was to help mitigate the economic crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic and to meet the long-term need to supplement members existing reserve assets in a manner that avoided eco
147、nomic stagnation and deflation as well as excess demand and inflation(IMF 2021).SDR allocations do not change a countrys net wealth but do create an increase in long-term debt liabilities and a corresponding increase in gross international reserves(holdings of SDRs).Both transactions are reflected i
148、n balance-of-payments statistics and international investment positions(IMF2009).In government finance statistics,SDR allocations are recorded as a long-term debt liability within public sector gross debt,with a corresponding entry for SDR holdings as a part of the public sectors financial assets(IM
149、F 2014).Following these guidelines,the International Debt Statistics database records SDR allocations as part of long-term gross external public debt and identifies them separately.SDR liabilities are not subject to debt limits in IMF programs because they do not fall within the definition of“debt”f
150、or program purposes under the Funds Guidelines on Public Debt Conditionality in Fund Arrangements.SDR allocations are generally considered to have limited impact on debt sustainability,but that may depend on how they are used.New guidance issued in August 2021(Box continues on next page)1.A n A l y
151、s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2 25increased from 42 percent as of end-2012 to 51 percent at end-2022,whereas the share of PNG debtaffected by rising global uncertaintydecreased from 40 percent to 33 percent in 2022.Short-term debt increased b
152、y 9.7 percent in 2022,to US$1.1 trillion.See box 1.2 for a discussion of debt concepts,coverage,and the data sources used for this report.The slight decrease in the long-term PPG external debt stock of LMICs,not including China,was partially offset by the resilience of multilateral creditors,whose d
153、ebt stock position as of end-2022 increased 4 percent to US$1.2 trillion.Multilateral creditors played an even steadier role for IDA-eligible countries.Trends in External Debt Stock of IDA-Eligible Countries,201222In 2022,the external debt stock of IDA-eligible countries increased 2.7 percent to a r
154、ecord US$1.1 trillion,more than double the 2012 level(table 1.1).PPG debt stock,including the International Monetary Fund(IMF),increased 1.7 percent in 2022 to US$728 billion,on incorporating SDR allocations into debt sustainability analyses addresses this issue and aims to better reflect the use of
155、 SDRs and the impact on debt sustainability(IMF 2021).Inline with that guidance,the external debt stock figures in International Debt Report 2023(and related ratios to exports and gross national income)include SDR allocations.However,the measure of debt flows does not take SDR allocations into accou
156、nt.This approach differs from International Debt Report 2022,in which analyses of both external debt stocks and debt flows excluded SDR allocations.Total outstanding SDR allocations of the 121 low-and middle-income countries included in International Debt Report 2023 were US$260 billion at end-2022,
157、equivalent on average to 10percent of general government external debt stocks and 4percent of international reserves,but with sharp divergences at the regional level(figure B1.1.1).Box 1.1 Allocation of the IMFs Special Drawing Rights in 2022(continued)Figure B1.1.1 SDR Allocations as a Share of Gen
158、eral Government External Debt and International Reserves,by Region,2022 PercentSources:World Bank Debtor Reporting System and International Monetary Fund.Note:SDR=special drawing rights.0510152025East AsiaandPacificEuropeandCentralAsiaLatinAmericaand theCaribbeanMiddleEast andNorthAfricaSouthAsiaSub
159、-SaharanAfricaSDR/General government external debt stockSDR/International reservesFigure 1.3 Composition of Debt Stock in Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222PercentSource:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:IMF=International Monetary Fund;PNG=private nonguaranteed;PPG=public an
160、d publicly guaranteed.0070809020002020212022PPG debt(including IMF)PNG debtShort-term debtI N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 36whereasPNG debt rose at a much faster pace,increasing 4.1 percent to US$225 billion.Viewed from a creditor persp
161、ective,the composition of long-term PPG debt stock of IDA-eligible countries was 50 percent owed to multilateral creditors,29 percent to bilateral creditors,and 21 percent to private creditors.This mix has shifted somewhat since 2012,when these creditor groups accounted for 56 percent,33 percent,and
162、 10percent,respectively.Multilateral creditors share of the total PPG debt stock of IDA-eligible countries declined from 56 percent in 2012 to 45percent in 2019,before rising again during the COVID-19 pandemic(figure1.4).Debt stock owed to the WorldBank accounted for 42 percent of debt owed to multi
163、lateral creditors in 2022.Multilateral creditors have played an increasingly important role as lenders of last resort during the uncertain global economic environment of the last few years,whereas lending by other types of creditors remained steady or declined.PPG debt stock owed to multilateral cre
164、ditors increased 4.9 percent to US$362.5 billion in 2022,and debt stock owed to bilateral creditors declined marginally by 0.4percent to US$213 billion.The total debt stock owed to private creditors by public and private sector borrowers remained steady for the IDA-eligible countries,with a 1.2 perc
165、ent increase to US$377.4 billion in 2022.The increase was driven by lending from commercial banks and other private creditors,which increased by 2.2percent to US$279.1 billion in 2022,whereas the debt stock owed to bondholders fell 1.5percent to US$98.3 billion.Table 1.1 External Debt Stock of IDA-E
166、ligible Countries,201222US$(billion)20000212022Debt stock457.9512.1556.1597.0634.4735.0786.3857.0949.8 1,042.1 1,070.5Long-term401.8450.2494.4534.6572.1652.9706.2762.9856.7932.3953.1Official creditors275.5288.9298.6313.5331.0374.0401.0438.6507.9559.5575.8Bilateral cr
167、editors102.6109.9118.6128.0137.8154.6170.6185.4203.8214.0213.2Multilateral creditors172.9179.0180.0185.5193.2219.5230.4253.2304.1345.5362.5World Bank(IBRD and IDA)72.578.080.083.387.3100.4107.2118.4136.9143.7152.3IMF(Use of credit and SDR allocations)33.531.329.229.529.731.931.432.950.079.779.4Priva
168、te creditors126.3161.3195.8221.1241.1278.9305.3324.3348.8372.8377.4Bonds11.518.233.841.146.060.073.380.784.899.898.3Banks and other private114.8143.1162.0180.0195.0218.9232.0243.7264.0273.0279.1Short-term56.161.961.762.462.382.180.094.193.1109.8117.4Memorandum itemLong-term public and publicly guara
169、nteed306.3331.5356.9382.4405.2470.1515.3564.6646.8716.2728.1Long-term private nonguaranteed95.5118.6137.5152.2166.9182.8190.9198.3209.9216.1225.0Source:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:IBRD=International Bank for Reconstruction and Development;IDA=International Development Asso
170、ciation;IMF=International Monetary Fund;SDR=special drawing rights.Figure 1.4 Creditor Composition of Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt for IDA-Eligible Countries,201222 US$(billion)Source:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:IDA=International Development Assoc
171、iation;IMF=International Monetary Fund.0050060070080020000212022Bilateral creditorsMultilateral creditors(including IMF)BondholdersOther private creditors1.A n A l y s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2
172、27Box 1.2 External Debt Data:Concepts,Sources,and CoverageThis report presents data and analysis on external debt for 121 low-and middle-income countries and Guyana.The primary source for these data is reports to the World Banks Debtor Reporting System(DRS)from member countries that have received ei
173、ther International Bank for Reconstruction and Development loans or International Development Association credits and have outstanding obligations to the World Bank.The DRS,instituted in 1951,has its origins in the World Banks need to monitor and assess the financial position of its borrowers.Compre
174、hensive information on data sources and the methodology used to compile the statistics presented in this report can be found in the appendix under“Data Sources.”The following describes the key concepts and data sources.The DRS follows international standards and defines external debt as the outstand
175、ing amount of actual current liabilities in both domestic and foreign currency that require payment(s)of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s)in the future and that are owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy.The sum of principal and interest payments is defined as debt se
176、rvice.The total external debt of a country is the sum of public and publicly guaranteed(PPG)debt,private nonguaranteed(PNG)debt,and short-term debt.PPG external debt comprises long-term external obligations(maturities of over one year)of all public debtors,including debt held by the central governme
177、nt and state-owned enterprises.Data are collected on a loan-by-loan basis through the DRS.Reporting countries submit quarterly reports on new loan commitments and annual reports on loan status and transactions(new commitments,gross disbursements,principal,and interest payments).PNG debt comprises lo
178、ng-term external obligations of private debtors that are not guaranteed by a public entity.The DRS has covered private nonguaranteed debt since 1973;however,for this category of debt data,the annual status and transactions(gross disbursements,principal,and interest payments)are reported in aggregate
179、.Short-term debt is defined as debt with an original maturity of one year or less and is not covered under DRS reporting requirements.However,most DRS reporters provide an annual report on outstanding short-term debt stocks on a voluntary basis.For countries that do not provide these data,informatio
180、n on their short-term debt is drawn from the Quarterly External Debt Statistics database,a joint World BankInternational Monetary Fund initiative,wherein data are compiled and reported by countries central banks,along with data compiled by the Bank for International Settlements.All debt data reporte
181、d to the DRS are validated againstand,when appropriate,supplemented bydata from other sources.These additional data include the Balance of Payments and International Investment position statistics,Quarterly External Debt Statistics,information published on official government websites,reports from t
182、he International Monetary Fund,regional development banks,the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,the Bank for International Settlements,and websites and annual publications of lending agencies.Escalating debt vulnerabilities in many LMICs and overlapping crisesthe COVID-19 pandem
183、ic,the war in Ukraine,devastating climate events,and the daunting global macroeconomic environmentare forcing an increasing number of countries to seek debt restructuring from external creditors.In 2022,multiple countries requested or concluded debt restructuring agreements in the context of the Gro
184、up of Twenty Common Framework or the Paris Club,or with bondholders.Like the Paris Club,the Common Framework involves a case-by-case approach to reaching sovereign debt resolutionswith the support of and coordination by all bilateral creditors with claims on the country,and comparable treatment from
185、 private creditors.I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 38Since the establishment of the Common Framework in 2020,four countries have applied for debt treatment under it:Chad,Ethiopia,Ghana,and Zambia.Chad was the first to conclude an agreement with its bilateral creditors in October
186、2022,and with private creditors,including Glencore PLC,shortly thereafter.The agreement with private creditors rescheduled US$1 billion over 12 years,including a two-year grace period at a reduced interest rate.Ghanas and Zambias requests for debt relief followed default on their external debt oblig
187、ations to bondholders.In 2023,Zambia reached a milestone agreement with bilateral creditors,including China,to restructure US$6.3 billion,paving the way for formal negotiations on restructuring of US$3 billion owed to bondholders.In the Paris Club,Argentina and Suriname reached debt restructuring ag
188、reements in October and June 2022,respectively,and Sri Lanka is in the process of negotiating with creditors.Regarding Argentina,US$2 billion of arrears related to the 2014 agreement were restructured over a six-year period at a reduced interest rate.The agreement with Suriname restructured US$58 mi
189、llion in arrears and debt service payments due in 202324 over an extended 17-to 20-year period,with the provision for a stock rescheduling in 2025 subject to outcomes of the IMF program.Suriname also reached agreement with its bondholders in 2022 to reschedule US$600 million owed on its two outstand
190、ing dollar-denominated bonds to a new 10-year amor-tizing bond.Sri Lankas economic collapse led to default on external debt obligations to both offi-cial and private creditors.Negotiations are ongoing with the two major bilateral creditors,China and India,and with bondholders.2 In July 2023 the Sri
191、Lankan government approved a domestic debt restructuring plan that will convert Treasury bills into longer-maturity Treasury bonds.LMICs continue to be disproportionally affected by multiple shocks in an environment of elevated debt vulnerabilities.Timely,accurate,and transparent external debt data
192、in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic are of utmost importance.Comprehensive and systematic reconcili-ation of debtor and creditor records is an essential element of good debt management and the most effective and reliable way to validate debt data,resolve discrepancies,and close data gaps.To this en
193、d,in 2020,the World Bank took the lead in disseminating data that provide the credi-tor composition of LMICs external debt.And,in 2022,calls for greater debt transparency con-tinued under the Japanese presidency of the Group of Seven.The World Banks Debtor Reporting System and Group of Seven member
194、countries conducted an extensive data-sharing exercise,which was then extended on a voluntary basis to members of the Paris Club(IDA 2023).Debt Indicators,201222Rebounding economic growth,along with robust export earningswhich reached an all-time high of US$10.1 trillion in 2022have improved the deb
195、t indicators of LMICs.Nevertheless,over the last decade,the accumulation of external debt has outpaced LMICs gross national income(GNI)growth and global trade,despite the recent rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.Economic growth continued to rebound for a second consecutive year after the contractio
196、n caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,despite the effects on countries of multiple crises that included unfavorable global financial conditions,the war in Ukraine,persistent inflationary pressures,high interest rates,and increasing debt servicing costs.The GNI of LMICs rose 5.8 percent in 2022,to US$37.
197、4 trillion;GNI growth for these countries was 17.8 percent in the first year of recovery that followed the pandemic.See box 1.3 for a more detailed discussion of debt-to-GDP(grossdomestic product)versus debt-to-GNI ratios.Consequently,as debt stock levels of LMICs decreased and growth rebounded,the
198、ratio of external debt to GNI for all LMICs fell by 2percentage points,to 24 percent,in 2022(figure 1.5).1.A n A l y s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2 29Box 1.3 Debt-to-GDP versus Debt-to-GNI Ratios Gross domestic product(GDP)and gross national
199、 income(GNI)both measure a countrys income,but GDP counts only income received from domestic sources,whereas GNI includes net income received from abroad.The World Bank favors the use of GNI for operational purposes.Member countries relative poverty is measured in relation to GNI per capita,and this
200、 measure underpins the annual income classification published by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD)and the International Development Association(IDA)operational cutoff(US$1,315 per capita for FY24)and the IBRD and IDA lending terms(interest rate and maturity)for specifie
201、d borrowers.The International Debt Statistics database follows this convention and provides users with GNI data for each reporting country and the relevant external ratios of debt stock and debt service to GNI ratios.The International Monetary Fund(IMF)uses the concept of GDP in Article IV consultat
202、ion reports and IMF programs to measure macroeconomic outcomes.The practice is carried forward to the joint WorldBankIMF Debt Sustainability Analysis,with debt stocks and debt service measured in relation to GDP.Conceptually,GDP may be regarded as a more accurate measure of a national governments ca
203、pacity to raise domestic resources from which debt-related obligations must be serviced.For most countries,the difference between GDP and GNI is minimal.For example,the World Bank calculates US GNI to be only 1.5 percent higher than GDP in 2022.GNI may be lower than GDP if nonresidents control a siz
204、able proportion of a countrys production or higher than GDP if,for example,a country receives a large amount of foreign aid.For most low-and middle-income countries,the difference between end-2022 GDP and GNI was small,but there were some outliers;aid-dependent Pacific islands such as Kiribati and T
205、uvalu had a GNI significantly higher than their GDP.Conversely,in countries such as Kazakhstan and Mongolia,GDP surpassed GNI by 12 percent.Excluding China,LMICs debt-to-GNI ratio decreased by 3.6 percentage points,to 33.5 percent.For this smaller group,the decline in 2022 was solely the outcome of
206、an increase in the US dollar value of their combined GNI,which rose 10.9 percent in 2022,to US$19.6 trillion from US$17.7 trillion,because the combined external debt stock when China is excluded remained virtually unchanged at US$6.6 trillion.Despite the increase in economic activity since 2020,the
207、rise in external debt stock has outpaced economic growth during the past decade in LMICs excluding China.The GNI of this group,in US dollars,rose on average 21 percent between 2012 and 2022,and the combined external debt stock rose 46 percent.This decade-long asymmetry between eco-nomic growth and d
208、ebt accumulation has created or exacerbated debt vulnerabilities in many LMICs,making actions to address these vulnerabilities increasingly more urgent.Currently,about 60 percent of countries that are eligible for IDA resources are assessed at high risk of debt distress or are already in debt distre
209、ss.When countries are grouped according to World Bank income classifications(box 1.4),those classified as low-income have accumu-lated external debt stocks at a faster rate than middle-income countries.Between 2012 and 2022,the external debt stock of low-income Figure 1.5 External Debt-to-GNI Ratios
210、 for Low-and Middle-Income Countries and IDA-Eligible Countries,201222PercentSource:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:GNI=gross national income;IDA=International Development Association.0020000212022Low-income countriesMiddle-income co
211、untriesIDA-eligible countriesI N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 310countries increased 109 percent,while GNI increased 33 percent(figure 1.6).There was a divergence for countries classified as middle-income:among lower-middle-income countries,the external debt stock increased 89 per
212、cent between 2012 and 2022 and GNI increased 48percent;among upper-middle-income countries,excluding China,the external debt stock increased by 28 percent and GNI increased by 7 percent over the same period.From a lending classification perspective,in IDA-eligible countries,external debt stock accum
213、ulation outpaced GNI for the 201222 period,increasing 134 percent,compared to a Box 1.4 World Bank Income and Lending Classifications Used in International Debt Report2023The World Bank classifies economies by income level for analytical purposes(to broadly group countries by level of development)an
214、d operational purposes(to determine their Financial Terms and Conditions of Bank Financing).This report presents data for 122 countries,121 low-and middle-income countries and Guyana,which is the only high-income country eligible for International Development Association(IDA)resources,reporting to t
215、he World Bank Debtor Reporting System.Of these,24 countries are classified as low-income,with per capita income of US$1,135 or less;97countries are classified as middle-income,with per capita income of US$1,136 to US$13,845;and one country,Guyana,is classified as high-income,with per capita income o
216、f US$13,846 or more.a Income classifications are updated annually at the start of the World Bank fiscal year(July 1)on the basis of gross national income per capita for the previous year.This year Guinea and Zambia were reclassified from low-income to middle-income;Guyana was reclassified from middl
217、e-income to high-income following a doubling of its oil and gas production in 2022.Gross national income is expressed in US dollars and determined by conversion factors derived according to the Atlas methodology.b Fifty-two of the middle-income countries covered in this report are eligible only for
218、nonconcessional loans from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD),and are referred to as IBRD-only countries.The remaining 24 low-income,45 middle-income countries,and Guyana reporting to the Debtor Reporting System are either(a)eligible only for concessional lending from ID
219、A and referred to as IDA-only countries;or(b)eligible for a mix of IBRD and IDA lending and referred to as“blend”countries.Together,IDA-only and IBRD-IDA blend countries are referred to as IDA-eligible countries.Figure B1.4.1 shows the distribution of the 121 low-and middle-income countries and Guya
220、na included in International Debt Report 2023 by income and lending groups.A comprehensive list of each countrys income and lending classifications is given in the appendix of this report under“CountryGroups.”a.The country grouping is held fixed when data are compared over time in the International
221、Debt Report.For example,the aggregate for low-income countries from 2010 to 2022 consists of the same group of countries that are classified as low-income countries according to the latest World Bank income classification as of end-2022.b.For more information on the Atlas methodology,see https:/data
222、helpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/378832-what-is-the-world-bank-atlas-method.Figure B1.4.1 Number of Low-and Middle-Income Countries and Guyana Covered in International Debt Report 2023,by FY2024 Income and Lending GroupsNumber Sources:World Bank Country and Lending Groups(https:/datahel
223、pdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups)and World Bank IDA(https:/ida.worldbank.org/en/home).Note:IBRD=International Bank for Reconstruction and Development;IDA=International Development Association.00IDA-only countriesBlend countriesIBRD-on
224、ly countries243011552Low incomeMiddle incomeHigh income1.A n A l y s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2 21153 percent rise in GNI.This rapid increase in external debt stocks,exacerbated by borrowing to mitigate the economic and social impact of th
225、e COVID-19 pandemic,further strained these countries debt sustainability capacity and already limited fiscal space.The pace at which external debt stocks accumulated was much slower in the group of countries borrowing only from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(the IBRD-only
226、group).Excluding China,external debt stock of IBRD-only countries increased 36 percent during the 201222 period,while GNI increased 17percent.The situation varied at the regional level.Europe and Central Asia and South Asia were the only two regions where GNI growth outpaced the accumulation of exte
227、rnal debt(figure 1.7).In Europe and Central Asia,the debt stock increased 1 percent during the last decade while GNI increased 6 percent.In the South Asia region,GNI increased 88 percent during the decade while external debt increased 73 percent.External debt growth outpaced GNI growth in the Middle
228、 East and North Africa region by 99 percentage points,in Sub-Saharan Africa by 72 percentage points,and in Latin America and the Caribbean by 55 percentage points during the decade.External debt stock accumulation over the past decade in Latin America and the Caribbean and in the Middle East and Nor
229、th Africa has been accompanied by negative economic growth,raising concerns about debt vulnerabilities in an environment of rising interest rates.The aggregate regional figures,however,mask large disparities between coun-tries affected by economic crises,conflict,cli-mate change,and natural disaster
230、s.Regional figures for Latin America and the Caribbean are dominated by Brazil,which accounted for an average 32percent share of total debt stock of the region and a 42 percent share of regional GNI during the past decade.Over this period,Brazils debt stock increased by 31 percent whereas its GNI de
231、clined by 23 percent.Ecuador and Suriname experienced the greatest divergence between the accumulation of debt and GNI growth.In Ecuador,debt grew by 273 percent while GNI increased by 31 percent;in Suriname,Figure 1.6 Change in External Debt Stock and GNI,by Income and Lending Group,201222PercentSo
232、urces:World Bank International Debt Statistics and World Development Indicators databases.Note:GNI=gross national income;IBRD=International Bank for Reconstruction and Development;IDA=International Development Association.020406080100120140IDA-eligibleIBRD-only(excludingChina)Low-andmiddle-incomecou
233、ntries(excludingChina)Low-incomecountriesLower-middle-incomecountriesUpper-middle-incomecountries(excludingChina)External debt stockGNIFigure 1.7 Change in External Debt Stock and GNI,by Region,201222PercentSources:World Bank International Debt Statistics and World Development Indicators databases.N
234、ote:GNI=gross national income.20020406080100120140East Asia and Pacific(excluding China)Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa External debt stockGNII N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 312debt increased by 331
235、percent while GNI decreased by 31 percent.More than half of countries in the Middle East and North Africa region experienced zero or negative GNI growth over the decade,whereas debt rose 28 percent.In the Arab Republic of Egypt,debt increased by 307 per-cent and GNI rose 69 percent.Iraq was the only
236、 country in the region where GNI growth out-paced debt accumulation,by 11 percent.The ratio of external debt to export earnings showed a similar pattern for LMICs in 2022.Export earnings from goods,services,and primary income increased 9.9 percent in 2022,reaching an all-time high of US$10.1 trillio
237、n.Excluding China,the increase in export earnings was even more pronounced at 16.7 percent,to US$6.2 trillion,as debt stock levels remained unchanged at US$6.6 trillion.Consequently,the ratio of external debt-to-export earnings decreased for a second consecutive year in 2022,to 107 percent.These rat
238、ios should be interpreted with care,however,because they mask increased debt service costs arising from the appreciation of the US dollar as well as significant disparities among both country groups and individual countries.IDA-eligible countries saw the debt-to-export earnings ratio decrease on ave
239、rage by 26 percentage points in 2022 to 186 percent.However,over the past decade,that ratio increased by 78 percentage points,putting additional pressure on debt sustainability.During the 201222 period,external debt stock of IDA-eligible countries increased 134 percent,outpacing export earnings that
240、 increased 36 percent.For IBRD-only countries(excluding China),the average ratio of external debt to export earnings at the start of the decade stood at 99 percent,only 10 percentage points below the comparable ratio of the IDA-eligible countries.In contrast to the IDA-eligible countries group,IBRD-
241、only countries debt-to-export ratio remained unchanged at the end of the decade,largely because of the slower pace of debt accumulation among these countries during the period.For the IBRD-only group,excluding China,external debt stock and export earnings increased at the same pace of 37 percent dur
242、ing the past decade(figure 1.8).By income-group classification,low-income countries had the biggest gap,59 percentage points,between the pace of debt accumulation and export earnings growth during the 201222 period.The groups debt-to-export ratio stood at 210 percent in 2022,well above the 151 perce
243、nt ratio of 2012,with 80 percent of countries having a debt-to-export earn-ings ratio above this threshold.Over the decade,the number of low-income countries with an external debt-to-export earnings ratio that exceeded 300 percent rose from two to eight in 2022(Burundi,The Gambia,Guinea-Bissau,Mozam
244、bique,Niger,Rwanda,Sudan,and Uganda).The lower-middle-income groups debt-to-export earnings ratio stood at 105 percent in 2022,24 percentage points above the 2012 level.Lebanon and Senegal experienced the biggest increases for this group,with their ratios more than doubling over the last decade and
245、standing at 514 percent and 467 percent,respectively.The upper-middle-income group excluding China had a debt-to-export earnings ratio of 105 percent in 2022 and was the only income group in which robust export earnings Figure 1.8 Change in External Debt Stock and Exports,by Income and Lending Group
246、,201222PercentSources:World Bank International Debt Statistics database;International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments database.Note:GNI=gross national income;IBRD=International Bank for Reconstruction and Development;IDA=International Development Association.020406080100120140IDA-eligibleIBRD-only
247、(excludingChina)Low-and middle-income countries(excluding China)Low-incomecountriesLower-middle-incomecountriesUpper-middle-incomecountries(excludingChina)External debt stockGNI1.A n A l y s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2 213outpaced debt accu
248、mulation,by 5 percentage points.Bosnia and Herzegovina,Grenada,and Serbia were able to decrease their debt-to-export ratios by more than 100 percentage points each during the past decade;at the other end of the spectrum,Colombia,Ecuador,and Suriname increased their ratios by more than 100 percentage
249、 points each.Debt Servicing Costs,201222Excluding China,interest costs as a percentage of GNI have been growing over the past decade,and the increase was even more pronounced in IDA-eligible countries.Interest costs are expected to continue to grow because of rising global interest rates.Despite a s
250、light decrease in the ratio of total debt service to exports among IDA-eligible countries,these countries remain vulnerable to a drop in export income or an increase in interest rates.Despite the rapid accumulation of external debt by LMICs over the past decade,the low inter-est rate regime that pre
251、vailed until 2021 kept interest costs relatively low and stable in relation to GNI.For all LMICs combined,interest costs on total external debt stocks rose marginally,from 0.79 percent of GNI in 2012 to 0.83 percent in 2022.However,this stability is attributable in part to Chinas strong economic gro
252、wth.Excluding China,interest costs for other LMICs rose from 0.94 percent of GNI in 2012 to peak at 1.33 percent in 2019 before falling back to 1.06 percent in 2022 following the post-COVID-19 rebound in growth.IDA-eligible countries registered the most significant rise in interest costs,from 0.35 p
253、ercent of GNI in 2012 to 0.89 percent in 2019,reflect-ing not only the rapid accumulation of external debt but also the increased share owed to private creditors.The ratio of interest costs to GNI moderated to an average of 0.76 percent in 202021 because of payment deferrals accorded in the context
254、of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative,but it rose again in 2022 to 0.85 percent as the initiative terminated and interest payments to bilateral creditors resumed.In nominal terms interest payments on total external debt stock by IDA-eligible countries have quadrupled since 2012 to an all-time hi
255、gh of US$23.6 billion in 2022(figure 1.9).Going forward,interest costs both in nominal terms and in relation to GNI are expected to increase given the aggressive rise in global interest rates to tame inflation and the fact that variable-rate loans account for 42 percent of the external debt stock of
256、 LMICs and 34 percent of that of IDA-eligible countries.As a share,interest payments on external debt of IDA-eligible countries accounted for 27 percent of the total debt service payments due in 2022,a 3-percentage-point increase from 2021.This share is expected to increase in the future given the 2
257、.7 percent increase in total external debt stock that countries in this group experienced in 2022 and the resump-tion of debt service payments from Debt Service Suspension Initiative agreements.Closely related to the repayment capac-ity of countries is the total debt service-to-export ratio,which in
258、dicates how much of Figure 1.9 Total Debt Service and Interest Payments on External Debt for IDA-Eligible Countries,201222US$(billion)Source:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:IDA=International Development Association.007080902000202021
259、2022Total debt serviceInterest paymentsI N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 314a countrys export revenue will be used to service its debt.Total debt service of IDA-eligible countries increased 4.8 percent in 2022,to US$88.9 billion.However,because export earnings increased by 17 perce
260、nt in 2022 for this group,to US$574.5 billion,the total debt service-to-export ratio decreased from 17.3 percent in 2021 to 15.5 percent in 2022.Despite the increase in export earnings,interest payments as a share of export earnings increased slightly to 4.1 percent in 2022,putting IDA-eligible coun
261、tries under increased liquidity and solvency pressure.This ris-ing pressure could trigger a crisis via a sharp drop in export earnings or an increase in foreign and/or domestic interest rates.Trends in External Debt Flows,201222Total net debt flows(loan disbursements minus principal repayments)to LM
262、ICs turned nega-tive in 2022 and became outflows,driven by a contraction in both short-and long-term debt flows,with the latter reaching record lows and turning negative for the first time since the beginning of the millennium.LMICs registered net debt outflows of US$185 billion in 2022,a sharp cont
263、rast to net inflows of US$556 billion recorded in 2021(figure 1.10).These financial flows came under pressure in 2022 because of a combination of factors affecting the global economy.This reversal was attributable to a contraction in both long-term and short-term debt flows:long-term debt flows swun
264、g from a net inflow of US$264.3 billion in 2021 to a US$94.5 billion net outflow in 2022.Short-term debt flows also contracted and turned negative,falling to an out-flow of US$90.6 billion from an inflow of US$291.4 billion in 2021(table 1.2).The fall in net long-term debt inflows was due entirely t
265、o a drop in inflows from private cred-itors,reflecting a sharp retrenchment in bond issuance by sovereigns and other public and private sector borrowers,as well as in lending by commercial banks and other private entities.Inflows from bondholders turned negative in 2022,to an outflow of US$127.1 bil
266、lion,as compared to a US$140.6 billion inflow in 2021.Inflows from banks and other private creditors also turned negative,from an inflow of US$61 billion in 2021 to an outflow of US$62.4 billion in 2022.Central to this debt trajectory was China,which accounted for 73 percent of net debt flows to LMI
267、Cs.Chinas external debt stock declined as of end-2022,driven by a decrease in net debt flows,which turned negative on obligations due to all creditor categories.Net debt flows contracted from a US$344.7 billion inflow in 2021 to an outflow of US$296.8 bil-lion in 2022,led by a sharp decline in short
268、-term debt flows which turned to a negative US$181 billion in 2022,and an outflow of US$114.2 billion in long-term private creditor flows.See box1.5 for a more detailed discus-sion of Chinas borrowing.In LMICs excluding China,net debt inflows fell 47 percent to US$111.8 bil-lion in 2022.This decline
269、 was driven by an 84percent drop in long-term debt inflows to Figure 1.10 Net Debt Inflows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries,by Maturity,201222US$(billion)Source:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.60040020002004006008001,00020000212022Long-term debt f
270、lowShort-term debt flow1.A n A l y s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2 215Table 1.2 Net Debt Inflows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222US$(billion)20000212022Net debt inflows612.5825.9541.8 323.1230.9771.45
271、69.4369.0380.4555.7 185.0Long-term488.6465.6406.0177.3279.3438.1356.6334.9373.3264.394.5Official creditors35.633.051.955.958.459.283.764.7123.762.795.0Bilateral creditors16.423.824.514.317.323.120.06.112.211.313.6Multilateral creditors19.29.227.441.641.236.163.758.6111.551.481.4World Bank(IBRD and I
272、DA)12.013.314.717.915.312.514.819.326.520.527.8IMF(Use of credit and SDR allocations)6.411.72.17.26.44.430.720.944.81.114.0Private creditors453.0432.6354.0121.5220.9378.9272.9270.2249.6201.6 189.4Bonds220.4166.3165.873.2121.1291.2199.1235.5229.1140.6 127.1Banks and other private232.6266.2188.348.399
273、.887.773.834.720.661.062.4Short-term123.9360.3135.9 500.448.4333.4212.834.17.1291.490.6Memorandum itemLong-term public and publicly guaranteed219.5211.3201.5116.6139.8279.7246.3213.9257.0179.550.6Long-term private nonguaranteed269.1254.2204.560.7139.5158.3110.3121.0116.384.8 145.1Sources:World Bank
274、International Debt Statistics database.Note:IBRD=International Bank for Reconstruction and Development;IDA=International Development Association;IMF=International Monetary Fund;SDR=special drawing rights.Box 1.5 China:The Largest Borrower among Low-and Middle-Income Countries From 2012 to 2022,China
275、 received 40 percent of total net financial flows to low-and middle-income countries from external creditors.Net financial inflows to China in this period totaled US$4 trillion,of which 32 percent were debt-creating flows and 68 percent equity inflows comprising foreign direct investment and portfol
276、io equity.Aggregate financial flows to China turned negative in 2022 for the first time since 2015,resulting in an outflow of US$103 billion,a marked contrast to the decade-high inflow of US$728 billion in 2021(figure B1.5.1).Driving the downturn was a debt outflow of US$297 billion and a 49 percent
277、 fall in net equity inflows to US$194 billion.The gross national income of China grew less than 1 percent in 2022,one of its worst performances in decades,the result of months of COVID-19 lockdowns,extreme weather conditions,and a historic downturn in the property market.Chinas external debt accumul
278、ation slowed sharply in 2022.After rising on average 13.1 percent per annum in 202021,external debt stock,including domestic and foreign currencydenominated debt,fell 11.6 percent to US$2.4 trillion.Relative to gross national income,external debt stock remained moderate,at 13.0 percent,on par with i
279、ts 2012 level.Short-term debt stock fell 13percent but continued to account for the largest share of Chinas external debt stock,53 percent at end-2022,largely unchanged from 2021.The 11 percent fall in long-term debt was driven by the sharp drop in net inflows from private creditors,particularly bon
280、dholders,which account for 91 percent of long-term debt external stock.Figure B1.5.1 Net Financial Flows to China,201222US$(billion)Sources:World Bank International Debt Statistics database,International Monetary Fund,State Administration of Foreign Exchange of the Peoples Republic of China,and Bank
281、 for International Settlements.600400200020040060080020000212022Net debt inflowsNet equity inflows(Box continues on next page)I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 316Nonresident participation in the China Interbank Bond Market(CIBM),the worlds second-l
282、argest bond market after the United States,began in 2016 when the market was opened to foreign investors.Chinese authorities implemented various programs and measures to facilitate nonresident access to the CIBM,including automated links between the markets in Hong Kong SAR,China;London;and Shanghai
283、.Inclusion of yuan bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index and China-A shares in the FTSE Russell Emerging Market index also encourages foreign investors appetite for Chinese bonds.Between 2019 and 2021,net inflows on bonds issued by Chinese entities,both public and private,accounted
284、for,on average,74 percent of annual long-term net debt inflows.By contrast,in 2022,61percent of the US$116 billion net debt outflow on long-term debt was accounted for by bondholders,reflecting global investors withdrawal from the CIBM.A major reason for the sharp sell-off of nonresident investors h
285、oldings of Chinese yuan bonds in 2022 was the much smaller yield premium on Chinese bonds compared to those in Group of Seven bond markets.The Chinese economy did not rebound in 2022 and inflation remained low,unlike in Group of Seven economies that implemented aggressive policy tightening and raise
286、d interest rates to combat inflation.However,despite reduced nonresident participation,Chinese government bonds were resilient and outperformed most of their global peers,topping the list for positive returns in local currency terms in 2022.They also had the smallest losses in US dollar terms,aside
287、from short-term US Treasury bonds.Box 1.5 China:The Largest Borrower among Low-and Middle-Income Countries(continued)US$21.3billion,from US$129.6 billion in 2021,which was partially offset by higher short-term inflows,which rose 11 percent to US$90.5 billion.Long-term debt inflows were at their lowe
288、st level since 2002.Net long-term debt flows to nonguaranteed private sector borrowers,through both bond issuance and commercial bank lending,reflected a stark decline of 184 percent,turning to a negative US$33.5 billion in 2022.Net long-term debt flows to public sector borrowers fared better and fe
289、ll less steeply;they dropped 39 percent to US$54.8 billion in 2022,reflecting a slow-down in bond issuance and commercial bank lending.The reduction in the volume of flows and their composition varied significantly at the individual country level.Russia and Thailand combined accounted for US$59billi
290、on in net long-term debt outflows from private nonguaranteed borrowers in 2022,whereas Brazil recorded inflows of US$27 billion.Regarding comparable net long-term debt flows to public sector bor-rowers,Russia recorded outflows of over US$40 billion whereas Mexico recorded a net inflow of US$11.2 bil
291、lion.Most top-10 borrowers recorded an inflow of short-term debt in 2022,but the most significant were India(US$14.5 billion)and Trkiye(US$30 billion).Only Brazil and Russia recorded short-term debt outflows in 2022,of approximately US$11 billion each.Among other LMICs,Egypt recorded a US$17.4 billi
292、on short-term debt inflow,an increase of more than 19-fold from the 2021 volume.The primary reason for the decline in long-term debt flows was bond issuance by public and private sector borrowers,which fell sharply in 2022 because of rising global interest rates,downgrades in selected borrower count
293、ries credit ratings,and heightened overall perceived investor risks.When China is excluded,new bond issuance by public and private sector borrowers totaled US$101 billion in 2022,a 53 percent decline from the 2021 figure.New issuance by public sector borrowers was US$70 billion,51.5 percent less tha
294、n the comparable figure of 2021;new issuance by private sector borrowers faced an equally pronounced contraction of 56.8 percent from 2021,to US$32 billion(figure 1.11).In terms of net flows,the effect was even more pronounced because of changes in the share of maturing bonds.The combined effect of
295、a decline in new issuances and a 4.2 percent increase in maturing bonds to US$52 billion reduced net flows to private nonguaranteed corporate borrowers to a negative 1.A n A l y s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2 217US$21 billion.Net flows to pu
296、blic sector borrowers turned to a negative US$35 billion in 2022,down from a net inflow of US$28 billion in the previous year due to a 9.1 percent decrease in maturing bonds,to US$105 billion in 2022,combined with a 51.5 percent decrease to US$69.7 billion in new bond issuances.As global financial c
297、onditions have continued to tighten,and despite what happened to the bond market,LMICs have demonstrated a commitment to diversify their sources of financing and to tap innovative sources to finance investments that benefit the climate and increase the sustainable development impact.Some of the new
298、and creative instruments developed to address these challenges include green,social,sustainability,and sustainability-linked bonds such as the World Bank Sustainable Development Bond,the African Development Banks Green Bond,the Green Sukuk(Islamic Bond),Blue Bonds,and social bonds.New clauses have a
299、lso been introduced in debt contracts,such as climate resilient debt clauses,which allow for automatic suspension of debt servicing payments in the event of natural disasters or health emergency crises,and majority voting provisions in syndicated loan contracts.Issuances of such sovereign thematic b
300、onds positively affect a countrys commitment to avoiding and adapting to climate change,and such sovereign issuances help diversify countries portfolios and develop their markets by drawing participation from a different investor base.In 2022,Egypt became the first country in the Middle East and Nor
301、th Africa region to issue a Samurai bond,a yen-denominated bond issued in Tokyo by non-Japanese companies and subject to Japanese regulations.Indonesia,a regular issuer of Samurai bonds,also used the instrument in 2022,in addition to a US$3.25 billion Shariah-compliant Sukuk format bond,which was it
302、s biggest Sukuk global sale in history.In 2022,the Bank of Industry of Nigeria,an official development bank,issued a US$700 million Eurobond with a sovereign guarantee,which marked the institutions first Eurobond issuance as well as the first provision of a Eurobond guar-antee by the Federal Governm
303、ent of Nigeria.The Philippines issued a US$1 billion sustainability bond in March 2022 and a 70.1 billion Japanese yen sustainability bond in April 2022.Despite these new forms of financing and the US$75.2 billion outflow recorded from pri-vate creditors,net flows to LMICs(excluding China)from offic
304、ial creditors,composed of bilat-eral and multilateral entities,were positive and rose 33.1 percent in 2022,to US$82.5 billion.Official creditors were the only group of creditors to mark an increase of financing in 2022 for LMICs,excluding China.Net debt inflows from multilateral creditors including
305、the IMF in 2022 increased 61 percent,to US$81.8 billion,and accounted for an 85 percent share of official debt flows.For many countries,in particular the worlds poorest,multilateral creditors were the pri-mary source of external financing.Net debt inflows from bilateral creditors increased 19 percen
306、t to US$14.8 billion,but those creditors share of official debt flows was modest at 15 percent.As financing from other creditor categories declined in 2022,borrowers increasingly turned to multilateral creditors,which serve as lenders of last resort.Figure 1.11 Bond Flows to Low-and Middle-Income Co
307、untries(excluding China),by Borrower Type,2021 vs.2022US$(billion)Source:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:PNG=private nonguaranteed;PPG=public and publicly guaranteed.100150Net flowsAmortizationDisbursementsNet flowsAmortizationDisbursementsPPGPNG20212022I N T E R N
308、A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 318The uncertain global economic outlook,limited fiscal space,and tightening financial conditions in international capital markets weighed heavily on LMICs in 2022,particularly those eligible for IDA financing.These countries depend significantly on official,c
309、oncessional sources of financing,although over a third of them have gained market access during the last decade with bond issuances in international capital markets.Market access was severely curtailed for IDA-eligible countries in 2022,and net flows from other creditors declined,apart from multilat
310、eral creditors.Net inflows from private creditors collapsed in 2022,falling 79 percent to US$6.1 billion.The downturn in net debt inflows from private creditors was intensified by a 43percent fall in inflows from bilateral creditors to US$7.9 billion(from US$13.7 billion in 2021)see figure1.12.By co
311、ntrast,net inflows from multilateral creditors rose 41 percent to US$30.4 billion(compared to a 48 percent decline in 2021),the only creditor category that experienced an upward net debt inflow trajectory in 2022.Multilateral creditors share of net long-term debt inflows rose to 68 percent from 33pe
312、rcent in 2021.The World Bank accounted for 50 percent of multilateral debt flows during the year and reached an all-time high of US$15 billion.The Sub-Saharan Africa region received most of these debt flows,US$10.7 billion,which represents a 71 percent share of total flows received by IDA-eligible c
313、ountries;the next biggest regional recipient was South Asia,with 16.9 percent(US$2.5 billion in 2022).Looking beyond debt,net financial flows(debt and equity)dropped 77 percent in 2022,to US$291 billion(figure 1.13).After rebounding in 2021 from the pandemic,foreign direct investment(FDI)flows decli
314、ned 28 percent in 2022,to US$479 billion,and portfolio equity flows dropped 81percent to US$11 billion,as difficult global economic conditions and heightened geopolitical tensions affected investors postcrisis risk perceptions.Despite experiencing a 47 percent decrease in FDI equity flows,China cont
315、inued to be the largest recipient among LMICs,at US$159.7 billion.It accounted for 33 percent of total FDI flows,followed by Brazil(15 percent),India(10 percent),and Mexico(7 percent).Although on a downward trend,FDI equity flows as a volume remained positive and proved resilient,offsetting the fall
316、 and negative volumes in short-and long-term debt flows.Figure 1.12 Net Flows to IDA-Eligible Countries,by Region and Creditor Type,2022US$(billion)Source:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:IDA=International Development Association;IMF=International Monetary Fund.25303
317、5BilateralMultilateral(including IMF)BondholdersOther privatecreditorsEast Asia and PacificEurope and Central AsiaLatin America and the CaribbeanMiddle East and North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaFigure 1.13 Net Equity Inflows and External Debt Flows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries,201222US$
318、(billion)Sources:International Monetary Fund and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.50005001,0001,5002,00020000222021Foreign direct investmentPortfolio equityPrivate nonguaranteed debt flowsPublic and publicly guaranteed debt flowsShort-term debt flow
319、s1.A n A l y s e s o f e x t e r n A l D e b t s t o c k s A n D D e b t f l o w s A s o f e n D-2 0 2 219New Debt Commitments,201222New commitments to LMICs plummeted in 2022,driven primarily by a steep decrease in pri-vate sector commitments;yet multilateral creditors stepped in to partly offset t
320、hat drop with an increase in new commitments.New commitments to public and publicly guaranteed(PPG)sector entities fell in 2022 for a second consecutive year,decreasing 23 percent to US$372 billion and reaching their lowest level since 2011.The main driver of the decrease was a 33 percent decline in
321、 new commitments from private creditors,which contracted to US$218 billion,also the lowest level since 2011.New PPG bonds issued in international markets by LMICs fell 51 percent in 2022 from the 2021 level,to US$114 billion.China,by far the largest bond issuer among LMICs,registered a sharp 74 perc
322、ent decline in new bond issuance from PPG sector entities,to US$24 billion.Excluding China,new bond issuance by other LMICs decreased at a slower pace in 2022,falling 36 percent to US$89.7 billion.IBRD-only countries are market-based borrowers that rely heavily on borrowing from pri-vate creditors,a
323、veraging 73 percent of new PPG commitments during the past decade.With the tightening of global financial conditions and increased risk aversion among private creditors,new borrowing from private creditors decreased 38 percent during the 202022 period,to US$208 billion in 2022,and this decrease was
324、the primary reason for the drop in total new commitments to IBRD borrowers.New PPG commitments from private creditors to IDA-eligible countries also decreased in 2022 by 72 percent,to US$9.7 billion,after experiencing a 56 percent increase in 2021.But these changes were much less significant for IDA
325、-eligible countries,because these countries have far less exposure to private creditor borrowing,at just 14 percent of total new commitments(figure1.14).Commitments from Official CreditorsPPG commitments from official creditorsgovernments or other bilateral public entities and multilateral instituti
326、ons such as the World Bank and regional development banksdecreased marginally in 2022,by 1.2 percent,to US$154 billion.But these overall figures for official creditors mask divergences between commit-ments originating from bilateral creditors and those from multilateral ones.New commit-ments from mu
327、ltilateral creditors,excluding the IMF,were three times larger than new bilateral commitments,and increased 1.5 percent to US$116 billion.Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,multilateral credi-tors have provided an unprecedented level of support for countries to mitigate the eco-nomic and socia
328、l impacts of the pandemic,which led to a surge in new commitments in 2020 and 2021.In 2022,multilateral creditors continued to step up and partly offset the decline in lending from private creditors.New commitments from the World Bank in 2022 increased by 1.3 percent,to US$53.5 billion,equivalent to
329、 46 percent of Figure 1.14 Loan Commitments to IDA-Eligible and IBRD-Only Countries,201222US$(billion)Source:World Bank International Debt Statistics database.Note:IBRD=International Bank for Reconstruction and Development;IDA=International Development Association.050030035040045050020122
330、000022IDA eligibleIBRD onlyI N T E R N A T I O N A L D E B T R E P O R T 2 0 2 320new commitments by all multilateral institutions combined.New World Bank IDA commit-ments increased 11.3 percent to US$25.0 billion,while new IBRD commitments decreased by 6.4 percent t
331、o US$28.6 billion.In 2022,the World Bank also provided US$6.1 billion in grants to IDA-eligible countries.See box 1.6 for more on IDA grants.Box 1.6 IDA Grants:Contributing to Reducing Debt VulnerabilitiesThe International Development Association(IDA)provides sustained,highly concessional financing
332、to its borrowers,and those at high risk of debt distress receive all or part of this financing in the form of grants.The terms of IDA financing to each IDA-eligible country vary based on an annual assessment of the countrys gross national income per capita,its creditworthiness for borrowing from the
333、 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,and its risk of debt distress and vulnerability.Outcomes of the Debt Sustainability Analysis,which assesses the risk of debt distress,translate to a“traffic light”system to determine the share of IDA grants and highly concessional IDA credits(loans)for each borrower.Before the 20th replenishment of IDA(IDA20),IDA-only countries with a per capi