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1、Power Lunch:State of The Economy-Q22023Anjali AmbaniAssociate Director,Financial ServicesAugust 2023This is an ongoing series providing an economic overview of the financial services industry,including the impacts of the summer travel boom in 2023.From Consumer Reports,to Competitive Intelligence,to
2、 Consulting,Comperemedia provides the insights your brand needs to win.Research ConsultancyComperemedia OmniComperemedia DirectMintel ReportsMintel TrendsMARKETSCONSUMERSINNOVATIONSComplete and expert source of direct marketing data and insightThe fastest understanding of your competitors omnichanne
3、l media strategyCustom solutions for consumer insights and competitive intelligenceIn-depth market analysis and consumer trendsLeading edge collection of the latest in global innovation Source:2023 Financial Services Marketing TrendsOur predictions for 2023 and beyond:Banks will make strategic chang
4、es to expand reachWhile big banks enjoy their wide customer base across the country,small banks may make efforts to expand their physical presence or invest in customer-centric decision making to hold onto customers.Further,some brands with digital capabilities may focus on bolstering their platform
5、 to broaden their reach.Expect innovations in wealth and private bankingAs per our 2023 Financial Services Trends,the Great Wealth Transfer will be the largest generational shift in assets.Financially struggling younger generations could find themselves suddenly part of the HNW category.Expect an up
6、tick in demand for alternative assets or innovative financial solutions.Customer attrition will lead to bank consolidationDuring times of stress,deposits flow from small banks to larger providers.Though deposit outflows have stabilized,consumers are favoring banks with higher APYs and money market f
7、unds,so small banks that are struggling with deposits may face customers switching for better rates.Hence,we expect to see more consolidations.Key TakeawaysDeclining savings could add pressureThe unprecedented levels of pandemic-originated savings are now depleting as consumers resort to using the m
8、oney for lifestyle and experiences.The personal savings rate is on the decline for the past two quarters;the rising costs and upcoming student loan repayments will likely result in economic pressures starting 2024.High rates and low RE inventory impact demandThe real estate(RE)market has been in flu
9、x since the Fed rate hikes.Low inventory as a result of fewer homeowners willing to sell their existing low-mortgage homes has aggravated housing costs.Brands need to educate customers about the economic situation to help interested buyers make the right decision.Desire for travel Rising costsConsum
10、er sentiment index is high and so is the spending behavior.Revenge travel is continuing despite rising costs in the past two quarters.Expect travel-related spending to rise in the remainder of the year as we enter the holiday season.Brands could educate about or introduce travel perks to help consum
11、ers meet inflated costs.ECONOMIC OVERVIEW1.22.62.42.5-1.62.3-2.1-8.5-4.6-0.71.54.323.93.12.1-12.7-0.24.63.31.80.70.43.50.63.22.9-1.45.24.71.83.32.31.30.62.41.22.421.723.44.12.82.82.90.72.22.73.61.8-4.6-29.935.33.96.372.77-1.6-0.63.22.622.4-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2007Q1
12、2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2008Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4
13、 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023(Adv)GDP percentage change based on chained 2012 dollarsThe US economy grew 2.4%in Q223,up from 2.0%in Q123.We expect it is headed for a soft landing and will gradually
14、drift toward more stable pre-pandemic levels in 2024.Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis as of July 27,2023Despite slowing expectations and rate increases,the US economy powered through due to an increase in consumer spending and business investment.The US unemployment rate remained steady,at 3.5%in
15、July 2023.While job growth ticked to 281k jobs in April 2023,up from 217k jobs in March 2023.Looking into July 2023,nonform payrolls increased 187k compared to 185k in June 2023.Although the labor market has displayed solid growth from a historical perspective,the drop signals that the economy is gr
16、adually going back to normal levels.What it means?Labor market indicators are prime data points upon which the Fed makes decisions regarding the health of inflation.The current labor market continues to remain strong on account of low unemployment and strong job growth.We expect to see a slower pace
17、 of job growth in the remainder of 2023 that could potentially urge Fed to pare down interest rate hikes.Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics,January 2020-June 2023Although there was a drop in unemployment rate,job growth settled by a bitpossibly lowering the chances of any further rate hikes in 2023.3
18、.63.54.414.713.311.110.28.47.96.96.76.76.36.26.0%6.15.85.95.45.24.74.64.23.94.0%3.83.63.63.63.63.53.73.53.73.63.53.43.63.53.43.73.63.50%5%10%15%20%Unemployment RateIn Jun 2023,personal income rose by 0.2%,lower than the 0.4%growth in May.PCE Index annual change was down from 3.8%in May to 3.0%in Jun
19、e as consumers continued to spend.Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis-Disposable Personal Income,Jan 22-Jun 2023;Bureau of Economic Analysis as of July 28,2023Despite rising rates and tightening credit,consumers exude optimism in their spending;expect an impact as student loan repayments resume in Q3
20、.-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Disposable Personal Income and PCE IndexDisposable Personal Income change from previous periodPersonal Consumption Expenditure(PCE)Index Annual ChangeIn June 2023,inflation ea
21、sed to 3%from 4%in May 2023though a slowdown,but remains an element of caution as labor market contributes to be a headwind to Feds efforts.Base:Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers(Not Seasonally Adjusted)Index 1982-84=100Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics,January 2020-June 2023US inflati
22、on continued to cool down for the twelfth consecutive month after a 9.1%rise in June 2022.0%2%4%6%8%10%Consumer Price Index change from previous period,2020-2023Percentage Change from Year AgoThe 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has maintained an upward trend since the beginning of Feb-23,peaking in the
23、week of Jul 13,2023 at 6.96%.According to Rs June housing data,growth in the inventory of homes actively for sale slowed nationally and declined in many metropolitan areas across the country as sellers continued to list fewer homes than last year and buyers competed over the remaining affordable hom
24、es for sale.While the median asking price for a home grew seasonally,we saw the first year-over-year decline in the median list price dating back to 2017,the starting point of our trend data history.Additionally,the median listing price on a per square foot basis continued to decline year-over-year
25、for the second month in a row.Source:Freddie Mac as of August 1,2023;R as of Jun 29,2023The real estate market remains in flux as high rates make potential sellers hold onto their existing low mortgages,leading to low inventory.0%2%4%6%8%1/6/20221/27/20222/17/20223/10/20223/31/20224/21/20225/12/2022
26、6/2/20226/23/20227/14/20228/4/20228/25/20229/15/202210/6/202210/27/202211/17/202212/8/202212/29/20221/19/20232/9/20233/2/20233/23/20234/13/20235/4/20235/25/20236/15/20237/6/20237/27/202330-year fixed rate mortgageHOW ARE CONSUMERS FEELING?Easing inflation and higher spending positively impacted sent
27、imentsfuture looks dim as lower-income groups battle.The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 71.6 in the July 2023 survey,up from 64.4 in June 2023 and 51.5 in June 2022.This has been the highest level observed since October 2021,signaling a greater optimism with easing inflation.According to Joanne Hs
28、u,UMichs Director of the Surveys.“This months marked improvement in sentiment was seen across all demographic groups with the notable exception of lower-income consumers,who anticipate continued challenges from inflation and a potential weakening in labor market prospects.However,aggregate consumer
29、spending is more heavily influenced by higher-income consumers,whose favorable views will continue to support robust spending.A drop in users that cut back on leisurely activities and that feel their situation will be better off in the future shows that revenge travel is on but concerns are imminent
30、.CURRENT FINANCIAL SITUATION37%of consumers feel ok-but theres not a lot left for discretionary spending(compared to 34%in Jun-23)FINANCIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS47%of consumers feel they will be better off over the next 12 months(compared to 49%in Jun-23)INFLATIONARY BEHAVIORS42%of consumer
31、s cut back on dining out/other leisure activities(compared to 48%in Jun-23)*Revenge travel refers to the huge increase in people wanting to make up for time and experiences lost to the pandemic-NRR.orgBase:2,000 internet users aged 18+Source:Mintel Reports-Interactive Databooks-US household confiden
32、ce,including the impact of COVID-19 and the conflict in Ukraine:July 7-14,2023July 2023 data shows that despite high-cost pressures,summer holiday activities remain intactexpect revenge travel*to diminish.HOW ARE AMERICANS SAVING?What is the State of Deposits?Customer deposits totaled$5.18T at small
33、 banks in the week ended Jun 28.Whereas,deposits at commercial banks continued to decrease,dipping to$17.34T in the week ended Jun 28,since reaching an all-time high during the pandemic:Apr 13,2022($18.21T).What this means?After the bank crises in Q1 2023,the deposit outflows have now stabilized and
34、 have been inching upwards.However,deposits still remain low and rising rates have urged customers to move money to more profitable vehicles,such as CDs and money market funds.Source:St.Louis Fed-Small Domestically Chartered Commercial Banks as of Aug 11,2023;St.Louis Fed-All Commercial Banks as of
35、Aug 11,2023;ReutersDeposits are inching upwards,signaling outflows have stabilized while customers ponder profitability.500000001/4/20231/11/20231/18/20231/25/20232/1/20232/8/20232/15/20232/22/20233/1/20233/8/20233/15/20233/22/20233/29/20234/5/20234/12/20234/19/20234/26/20235/3/20235/10/2
36、0235/17/20235/24/20235/31/20236/7/20236/14/20236/21/20236/28/20237/5/20237/12/20237/19/20237/26/20238/2/2023Deposits,All Commercial Banks(Billions of Dollars)All Commercial BanksSmall Domestically Chartered Commercial BanksMail volume for CDs increased 70%MoM in Apr-23,signaling an increase in marke
37、ting post-SVB crisis;whereas,total mail volume for all three categories nearly tripled YoY.Top mailers from each category in Q2 2023:CDs:US Bank(41%);Discover(24%)Money Market:Fifth Third(85%)Savings:Amex(47%);Citibank(15%)Expect offers to be rampant as brands strive to welcome new customers as well
38、 as make efforts to retain customers.Source:Comperemedia Direct 01/01/2022-06/30/2023 as of 07/28/2023A flurry of acquisition offers in the banking category demonstrate a battle between brands to keep customers,as well as deposits,intact.020406080(in millions)Certificates of DepositMoney MarketSavin
39、gsHOW ARE CONSUMERS AND BRANDS RESPONDING TO REVENGE TRAVEL?The surge in travel spending may slightly be impacted until Q3 2023 as student loan repayments resume.TRAVEL SPENDING JUNE 2023+4.7%up YTD 2023 and up 0.9%since June 2022AIR TRAVEL DEMAND+12%up MoM since June 2022 as consumers head into bus
40、y travel seasonTRAVEL PRICES1.7%continue to drop faster than overall prices and contracted 1.7%in June,the first decline since February 2021Source:US Travel Association-July 2023 Travel Data,as of august 3,2023Although consumers feel high-cost pressures,travel spending saw the highest growth so far;
41、expect travel demands to continue in 2023.Credit card balances in the US in total increased by$45B in Q2 2023,up 4.6%QoQ,and now stand at$1.03T.Further,according to a study,69%of Americans had a credit card account in the second quarter of 2023,up from 65%in December of 2019.Easing inflation may fue
42、l spending as consumers gear up for holiday travel.Expect consumers to maintain caution as student loan repayment resumes and credit tightening impacts spending trends.Source:New York FedImproving consumer confidence led to a surge in travel,dining,and experienceshence,higher credit card debt;expect
43、 spending to surge in 2023.00.511.52Q1 2003Q3 2003Q1 2004Q3 2004Q1 2005Q3 2005Q1 2006Q3 2006Q1 2007Q3 2007Q1 2008Q3 2008Q1 2009Q3 2009Q1 2010Q3 2010Q1 2011Q3 2011Q1 2012Q3 2012Q1 2013Q3 2013Q1 2014Q3 2014Q1 2015Q3 2015Q1 2016Q3 2016Q1 2017Q3 2017Q1 2018Q3 2018Q1 2019Q3 2019Q1 2020Q3 2020Q1 2021Q3 20
44、21Q1 2022Q3 2022Q1 2023Total Credit Card Debt(in$Trillions)The US personal savings rate has remained at record lows for the past year and the rising costs situation has not helped consumers bring these levels back up.In June 2023,savings rate stood at 4.3%compared to 8.5%in June 2019.With revenge tr
45、avel spending still continuing in 2023,these savings rates are expected to go down further in the remainder of 2023 as consumers feel obliged to meet student loan repayments and holiday shopping/travel needs.Source:St.Louis Fed-Personal Savings RatePandemic-related savings growth due to fiscal suppo
46、rt and higher disposable income is tapering off as consumers use this to meet spending needs.010203040Personal Savings Rate%Total marketing spend has been on a rising streak since the beginning of new normal in 2021.In H1 2023,total spend increased 26%YoY and was up 19%compared to the pre-pandemic 2
47、019 data.Key drivers contributing to H1 2023 increase:Capital One TV ads for its Venture portfolio of products comprised 85%of total TV spend,partnering with Taylor Swifts The Eras Tour for promoting Capital One Travel Portal benefits.Notes:*Spend includes Amex Platinum,BofA Travel Rewards,Chase Sap
48、phire Suite,HSBC Travel Rewards,US Bank FlexPerks,Capital One Venture Suite,Bilt,AAdvantage Suite,United Explorer Suite,Marriott Suite,Hilton Suite,H card.Source:Comperemedia Omni 01/01/2019-06/30/2023 as of 07/28/2023With more reliance on credit cards for travel,brands utilized mass media channels
49、to promote card benefits that relate with customer lifestyle.020406080H1 2019H1 2020H1 2021H1 2022H1 2023(in$millions)Marketing Spend(H1 2019-H1 2023)*TVPaid TwitterPaid InstagramPaid FacebookPaid YouTubeDirect MailMobile VideoOnline DisplayWhat is my target audience interested in?What whitespace ex
50、ists in my customers marketing mix that I could leverage?Where are my competitors marketing that I am not?How does my omnichannel strategy and performance compare to my competitors?What opportunities exist to differentiate messaging,content,creative strategy,and audience targeting?Comperemedias Competitive Intelligence and Insights Deliver Results for Financial ServicesScan Here for a Review of Your Key Competitors Tactics and Market OpportunitiesThank youAnjali AmbaniAssociate Director,Financial Services