《Triodos IM:2023新兴经济体可再生能源投资趋势与风险报告(英文版)(47页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Triodos IM:2023新兴经济体可再生能源投资趋势与风险报告(英文版)(47页).pdf(47页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Investing in renewable energy in emerging markets trends and risksOctober 2023For professional investors only.2Who are we?Greig Blackie,CFAFund Manager Triodos emerging market renewable energy fund Fund manager of the Triodos emerging market renewable energy fund and Triodos Greenfund since 2020 Pri
2、or experience:Mercer Investment Consulting developing investment solutions for institutional investorsGerrit-Jan BruninkPrincipal Investment ManagerEnergy&Climate Founder of the Energy&Climate Emerging Markets activities at Triodos Investment Management.Focus on origination,due diligence and executi
3、on since 2007 Prior experience:ABN AMRO Global Clients&FMO Dutch Development Bank as a Senior Investment Officer and Manager of the Least Developed Countries Infrastructure Fund3III Investment examples-risks&mitigants II Triodos&Energy transitionI UrgencyIV Portfolio solutions4This was last year:rep
4、orts couldnt be clearerGuterres:“Ive seen many scientific reports in my time,but nothing like this”5And this is 2023:“were really starting to feel it”The fossil fuel sector propped up by subsidies7There are 3 kinds of people1.People who make things happen2.People who watch things happen3.People who
5、wonder what happenedQuite a while agopredominantly in Africa and Asia800 million people have no access to electricitypopulation growth in China,India and especially Africa by 2040+1.1billion people up to 2040 comes from emerging markets90%of global electricity demand growth 9Societys biggest challen
6、ge presents a huge investment opportunityin total power production mix despite ample natural sources The share of renewables in EM is still low 10III Investment examples-risks&mitigants II Triodos&Energy transitionI UrgencyIV Portfolio solutionsSource:Clean Energy Pipeline.35+years of experience in
7、renewable energy40+dedicated renewable energy professionals140+renewables transactions per year 10+years investing in renewable energy projects in EM2.5+billion dollars invested in renewable energy#1lead arranger by number of deals in eight consecutive years 150+USD deployed in EM RE projectsTriodos
8、Worldwide pioneer in renewable energyHondurasNicaraguaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorArmeniaGeorgiaKyrgyzstanUkraineIndiaIndonesiaNepalPakistanVietnamEgyptGhanaMoroccoNigeriaSierra LeoneSource:Triodos Investment Management,data per Q2 2023DjiboutiMozambiqueTanzania KenyaRwandaUgandaMadagascarSom
9、aliaZambiaMalawiSouth AfricaZimbabweSolar Green credit lineWindGeothermalHydroWaste to Energye-MobilityRenewable energy investments in emerging marketsCombination of direct and indirect investmentsTriodos emerging market partners:Investment origination,local presence and expertise13TriodosNetwork Eu
10、ropeDevelopment Financial InstitutionsMultilateral Development BanksLike minded Impact InvestorsInvestee project developer fundsFor illustrative purposes only.Centralised solutionsOn-and near-shore windHydropowerSolar PVDecentralised solutions1bnpeople globally for whom decentralised solutions are t
11、he lowest-cost option Distributed generationMini-gridCommercial&Industrial16III Investment examples-risks&mitigants II Triodos&Energy transitionI UrgencyIV Portfolio solutions17Operating 365 Vestas wind turbines with a capacity of around 310 MW,this wind farm added approx.17%of the total capacity of
12、 the national grid in Kenya at the time it was built.The African Development Bank(AfDB)is a key partner and our lender of record.Lake TurkanaKenyaInstrumentSenior debt(B-loan)PartnerAfrican Development BankTriodos amountEUR 5.5mTenor10 yearsProject phaseOperationalCapacity310 MWLake Turkana Wind Pow
13、er,Northern KenyaCentralised solutionLake Turkana Wind Power,Northern KenyaCentralised solution20Lake Turkana:Risks&mitigantsZooming in on one the key risks Construction riskStatus&mitigants Project is operational since 2019 Complex,remote,multi contract.Still:built in time&within budget which was a
14、 major achievementStrong contractual arrangements around completionProcesses&monitoring:interface risks well mapped and monitored sharply by Owners Engineer&Lenders Technical AdvisorPeople-strong&determined sponsor group that appointed a highly professional project management team;reputed external a
15、dvisor experienced in large&complex infra projects on the African continent21InstrumentSenior debt PartnerSymbiotics&Triodos GroenfondsTriodos amountINR 400m(c.USD 5m)Tenor4 yearsProject phaseOperational Capacity175 MWCreated in 2010,Fourth Partner Energy(4PEL)provides affordable,clean and sustainab
16、le energy solutions to commercial and industrial(C&I)clients through the construction of small and medium scale solar systems.The company manages approximately 400 MW across its distributed and open-access portfolios for over 150 clients.Find out more about 4PELs strategy here or watch their testimo
17、nial.4 PELIndia224 PEL,IndiaDecentralised solution Captive power plants4 PEL,IndiaDecentralised solution Captive power plants244 PEL:Risks&mitigantsZooming in on one key risk Offtaker riskStatus&mitigantsDiversified group of offtakers,combination of private(corporates,both international&tier 1 local
18、 companies)and public(Indian railways,airports etc)Electricity prices attractive(20%below alternative),sound incentive to take the power(apart even from the contractual obligations)Sophisticated approach to check creditworthiness of prospects/thorough screening and monitoring once on board25Financin
19、g of 20+small-scale power generators(PMGDs)around the metropolitan regions and rural areas of Chile.These smaller solar stations(1 2 MWs):are faster to construct,can avoid(outdated)national transmission grid problems,andhelp supply the local shortage of reliable&affordable electricity.Distributed Ge
20、neration oEnergyChileInstrumentSenior DebtPartnersoEnergy and CifiTriodos amountUSD 5mTenor17 yearsProject phaseConstruction&OperationalDistributed Generation-oEnergyDecentralised solutionDistributed Generation-oEnergyDecentralised solution28oEnergy Distributed Generation:Risks&mitigantsZooming in o
21、n one key risk Energy price/market riskStatus&mitigants Chilean system for Distributed Generation benefits from a“Stabilized energy pricing scheme”incorporated in the law System includes caps&floors that significantly diminishes volatility Proper energy market advice obtained and conservative sizing
22、 of debt to reflect hybrid merchant risk29With an installed capacity of 144 MW,the Lotus Wind Power Project is the largest of its kind in Vietnam,comprising three separate 48 MW farms,each with 12 Vestas wind turbines.Construction of the parks started in 2020 and is operational since November 2021.T
23、he project increased Vietnams wind energy capacity at the time by 30%.For more details read the articleInstrumentSenior Debt(B-loan)PartnerAsian DevelopmentTriodos amountUSD 17mTenor15 yearsProject phaseConstruction&Operational Capacity144 MW Lotus Wind PowerVietnam30Lotus Wind Power,VietnamCentrali
24、sed solution31Lotus Wind Power,VietnamCentralised solutionConstruction of clean water wellsInstallation of village librariesRefurbishment of schoolsSustainable farming supportGender action plan32Lotus:Risks&mitigantsZooming in one key risk Environmental&Social(E&S)Status&mitigants Elaborate E&S Impa
25、ct Assessment(ESIA)and E&S action plan,mapping the elements met as well as the follow up actions&specific timelines to be in sync with requirements Active engagement with local stakeholders.Specific community development programs,process guided by local social experts(AFRY)33III Investment examples-
26、risks&mitigants II Triodos&Energy transitionI UrgencyIV Portfolio solutions34Example of pooling of assets into portfolio solutionsRegionsAsset classSenior debt70%Mezzanine debt10%Equity20%Africa25%Eastern Europe&Central Asia25%South East Asia25%Latin America25%SegmentsGrid connected 50%Utility scale
27、Distributed generationgridsOff-grid50%Commercial&industrial captive powerSmall&Medium EnterprisesMini gridsSolarWindHydroStorageOther proven techTechnologies:Hybrids:Energy+StorageDelivering attractive characteristics for investors 35Competitive risk-adjusted returnsLow correlation to traditional as
28、set classesStable performance in down marketsPredictable cashflowsPartial inflation protectionInelastic demand for energyNatural interest rate hedge via floating rate loansLotus Wind,VietnamPositive environmental&socio-economic impactAccess to highly skilled developers and development finance capita
29、lContact36Triodos Investment ManagementW triodos-T+31(0)30 694 2400Landgoed de Reehorst,Hoofdstraat 10 3972 LA Driebergen,The NetherlandsFollow usTriodos Investment ManagementTriodos IM Impact InvestingVuk SrdanovicInvestor Relations NordicsT+45 2896 2181E vuk.srdanovictriodos.nl37DisclaimerThis pre
30、sentation by Triodos Investment Management is copyrighted and proprietary,and all rights are reserved.Any recording,rebroadcast or other use of this presentation,in whole or in part,without the prior written consent of Triodos Investment Management is prohibited.This presentation is based on informa
31、tion generally available to the public and does not contain any material,nonpublic information.The presentation has been prepared solely for information purposes,it does not constitute advice of any kind,an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or financial instruments.This presentatio
32、n is exclusively for the benefit and internal use of professional investors(as such term is defined in the AIFM Directive).Financial intermediaries are required to satisfy themselves that the information in this presentation and an investment in shares or units of a fund is suitable for any person i
33、n view of that persons circumstances and purpose in accordance with applicable laws and regulations.Past performance is not a guarantee for future performance.Figures shown are intended to demonstrate performance history of a fund.The investment value may increase as well as decrease.The capital and
34、 income are not guaranteed and an investor in a fund may get back less than his/her original investment.Triodos Investment Management and its sources will use reasonable care and skill to ensure that information contained in this presentation is accurate at the date of publication but do not guarant
35、ee the accuracy,adequacy or completeness of this information and no liability for any error or omission is accepted by Triodos Investment Management or any of their directors or employees.Triodos Investment Management is established in the Netherlands as a private limited liability company.The regis
36、tered office of Triodos Investment Management is Landgoed De Reehorst,Hoofdstraat 10,3972 LA Driebergen-Rijsenburg,the Netherlands.Triodos Investment Management is authorized and regulated by the Autoriteit Financile Markten(AFM).38Investing in renewable energy in emerging markets trends and risksWe
37、binar by Triodos Investment Management&Bech-Bruun law firmOctober 2023Foto:Colourbox39Mathias Rose SvendsenHead of Offshore Wind at Bech-Bruun law firm8 years of experience with project development of renewable energyExperienced within development of renewable energy infrastructureIntroduction to yo
38、ur speaker40An emerging markets is a country transitioning from a low-income economy,to a modern industrial economyProject development in emerging markets may be more difficult due to:Inadequate infrastructure Immature regulation and legal uncertainty Political risk Strong local stakeholders Etc.Int
39、roduction to Project DevelopmentFoto:Colourbox41DEVEX,CAPEX,OPEXDEVEXCAPEXOPEXFoto:Colourbox42Key aspects of project development Contracting Bankability and project financingFoto:Colourbox43ContractingDevelopers should consider preferred contracting strategy:Multiparty ContractingInterface-risk is w
40、ith developerPreferred in developed markets and developed technologyOffers(generally)flexibility and competitive pricingRequires organizational size and personnelEPC ContractingInterface-risk is with contractorPreferred with novel technologiesSuitable for slim organisationsOffers(generally)less flex
41、ibility and uncompetitive pricingFoto:Colourbox44An interface is a circumstance between two or more scope of works packages that are interrelated and affect each-others performanceHow to mitigate:Entering into interface agreements Bonus scheme for early completion may be provided Establishing an int
42、erface committee Decision making mechanisms Early warning notices Cooperation responsibilitiesInterface riskFoto:Colourbox45Why?Ensuring financing of a project Limiting risks Making the project financially desirable and profitable to lendersHow?Market insight,market standards Understanding risks and
43、 risk interfaces Limitation of risks through risk identification,risk allocation and risk mitigation Negotiation and alignment A well-tested procedureBankabilityFoto:Colourbox46BankabilityFocus on bankability of contracts in both DEVEX and CAPEX-stage of project developmentNegotiate lenders favourit
44、e clauses into key contracts:Sufficient guarantees Step-in rights for lenders Cooperation clauses ESG standards Insurance requirements Assignment clausesFoto:Colourbox47Value DriversFoto:ColourboxPayment i.e.,Payment period shall be less than 60 daysRestrictions on right to limit scopei.e.,limiting
45、the right to change number of WTGs Accepting more responsibility for delay i.e.,Delay to Taking-Over due to Employers delay Payment Plan i.e.,Frontloaded Payment Limiting risk relating to Site Data and Grid Compliance i.e.,Risks related to Site Data and Grid Compliance and consequences of failure co
46、mply Supplier friendly LD mechanismsType Certificate Delay LDs and claw back mechanism Including liability caps i.e.,Longer period for reaching liquidated damages cap(higher cap or lower LDs amount per day)Restriction on descoping Descoping by means of Variation Order shall not be for the purpose of
47、 allocating works to a third partySerial defect provision more favourable to Supplieri.e.,higher threshold,sharing of costs etc.What can decrease the financing appetite(i.e.increase interest)Key provision that increase the financing appetite(i.e.decrease interest)Value of securitiesIncreasing obliga
48、tions by supplier i.e.,Including additional reporting requirements for supplier Payment provisions generally Uncapped liability Pre-NtP flexibilityi.e.,low termination cap,WTG decrease etc.Interface risks i.e.pushing third party responsibility towards supplierBroad IPR rightsi.e.,access to contractor IPR perpetually Non-restricted damagesi.e.,not including exclusions of general damagesInsurance requirements