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1、Read the Fjord Trends 2020 on A For a deeper dive visit Many faces of growth 7 Money changers 21 Walking barcodes 35 Liquid people 49 Designing intelligence 63 Digital doubles 75 Life-centered design 89 Every year, Fjord Accenture Interactives design and innovation practice crowdsources trends for t
2、he year ahead from its network of 1,200 people in 33 studios worldwide. With new studios opening in Japan and across Latin America, this years Fjord Trends are our most globally diverse. Yet, despite the diversity of regional flavors and context, there was a high level of consensus in our initial id
3、ea-gathering stage. These are also our most closely connected trends ever, telling a compre- hensive story about our landscape and whats coming next. Economics and politics, capitalism and resources, technology and society have long been entwined, but recently the consequences of that entanglement h
4、ave burst into public consciousness ironically, driven by the very technologies that made such interconnectivity possible. The omnipresence of digital and the internet have been big (possibly decisive) factors in the prominence of President Trump and Greta Thunberg, of A and the gig economy, smartph
5、ones and techlash and, indeed, the re-evaluation of Silicon Valley start-ups triggered by the failure of WeWorks IPO. Questions about capitalisms trajectory of endless growth with profit as the sole metric have moved from shouting on the streets to conversations in the boardroom. Concerns about plas
6、tic have developed into a major climate crisis movement, which is now among voters top priorities in many countries. The clash between the technology industry and governments is causing widely felt tremors, as tech giants are considered to have immense power but theres disagreement about who should
7、be held accountable. Two years ago, we highlighted Tensions as our meta-trend. In retrospect, that led directly to last years meta-trend, The search for value. Now, that search has evolved into a re- evaluation of purpose and place in the world by governments, businesses and individuals alike. Meanw
8、hile, technology continues to create change: now, its changing the shape of money, recognizing our bodies as a form of signature, and creating virtual doubles. 2020s meta-trend is nothing short of a major realignment of the fundamentals. Its tempting to misinterpret this as a gloomy picture instead,
9、 we think this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to innovate in business models, services and products around new definitions of value. For companies with the courage to recognize this meta-trend, there are many opportunities and there will also be challenges. For example, it questions the decades-old
10、definition weve had of business success, which is underpinned by the philosophy of profit as the only directive. This realignment also potentially leads to iconic innovation moving beyond start-ups in favor of more traditional businesses that will need to work together to make change happen at an in
11、dustry-wide level. We might see a two-speed model emerging as the shift takes place at different paces in different markets. Emerging markets might just leapfrog western attitudes toward endless consumption and go straight for a more balanced view. Meanwhile, people continue to be ever more fluid in
12、 their behaviors, constantly shifting between traditional demographic segments in ways that seem contradictory. However it plays out from here, one thing is likely: those who embrace the long-term view by starting with their impact on the world and society, and embracing the systemic complexity of t
13、he worldwill emerge as winners. Meta-trend: Realigning the fundamentals For decades, companies have been singular in their aim: financial growth and the faster the better. Now, investors and customers are pushing to evaluate activities against other measures of growth as well, perhaps through enviro
14、nmental, social or governance metrics. Its easy to assume that this is all about profit-bashing, but its not this is a positive call to redefine growth in new ways that enhance our lives. If financial growth is no longer an organizations sole business objective, what are the others? And how do we pu
15、rsue them without losing sight of the fact that profit is ultimately essential for organizational longevity? If we can resolve that tension, the redefinition of growth offers an epoch-changing opportunity to imagine new ways we can create and celebrate value. Investors, customers and employees are u
16、rging organizations to reconsider their view of the world and scrutinize their place in it. Unsettled by changing societal values, climate change and depleting natural resources, and economic and political instability, people are starting to question long-held beliefs including the notion that growt
17、h at any cost is acceptable. As a result, capitalism is having a mid-life crisis. At the heart of the Many faces of growth trend is people power. People are fueling demands for change at a time when the wealth gap between the highest income population and everyone else is the widest its been since t
18、he 1930s. Those in the top 40 percent now have, on average, ten times as much wealth as the bottom 60 percent up from six times in 1980. The good news is that those with the influence to change how we go about growth are listening and talking about the subject. Business Roundtable, (an influential a
19、ssociation of nearly 200 CEOs from North Americas most prominent companies), recently redefined its mission, marking a major turning point. For years, its formal statement of corporate purpose put shareholders first. As of August 2019, its new purpose champions activities such as “value for customer
20、s”, “investing in employees” and fostering “diversity and inclusion” before shareholders even get a mention. “People are asking fundamental questions about how well capitalism is serving society,” said Business Roundtable Corporate Governance Committee Chair and CEO of Johnson & Johnson Alex Gorsky.
21、 Ex-Unilever boss Paul Polman and Salesforce Chairman and CEO Marc Benioff have also spoken publicly on this subject recently. Whats going on? Greta Thunberg is leading her generation in a push to heal and protect the planet for todays children and the generations that follow them. The Financial Tim
22、es launched The New Agenda in September 2019 to help businesses understand the new era of capitalism, which balances financial growth with wider definitions of success. 9 T1T1Many faces of growthMany faces of growth 10 Benioff observed: “We can no longer wash our hands of our responsibility for what
23、 people do with our products. Yes, profits are important, but so is society. Its time for a new capitalism a more fair, equal and sustainable capitalism that actually works for everyone and where businesses, including tech companies, dont just take from society but truly give back and have a positiv
24、e impact.” In September 2019, the Financial Times introduced The New Agenda. “The long-term health of free enterprise capitalism will depend on delivering profit with purpose,” it stated. “Companies will come to understand that this combination serves their self-interest as well as their customers a
25、nd employees. Without change, the prescription risks being far more painful.” A month later, BlackRock confirmed a global partnership with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation to launch its first circular economy fund a powerful signal from the worlds largest asset management firm to other companies and i
26、nvestors. The calls are coming from both inside and outside the house investors, employees and customers are making their voices heard. People are demanding their employers be more purposeful and ethical, or else theyll strike or leave. Amazon staff, for example, recently staged a walk-out to show t
27、he company exactly how they feel about its failure to act on climate change. Swedish climate change activist Greta Thunberg is inspiring school children to fight for their futures. Along with 15 other young people, she recently filed a potentially world-changing complaint to the United Nations to ha
28、ve climate change classified as a childrens rights crisis. “Its time for a new capitalism a more fair, equal and sustainable capitalism that actually works for everyone, and where businesses dont just take from society, but truly give back and have a positive impact.” Marc Benioff, CEO Salesforce Ne
29、w Zealand has allocated budget to causes including mental health services, reducing child poverty, supporting Maori aspirations and modernizing hospitals in a bid to make the country a great place to live and work. 11 T1T1Many faces of growthMany faces of growth 12 Customers, meanwhile, are starting
30、 to demand a different set of values from the organizations with which they choose to engage. According to a recent survey, over 70 percent of adults now feel public companies should be mission-driven as well as focused on shareholders and customers. The same study found that as many Americans belie
31、ve a companys primary reason to exist should include making the world better as those who say it should include making money for shareholders (64 percent). A significant proportion of younger people have turned their backs on capitalism in a 2016 Harvard study, 51 percent of 18-29-year-olds in the U
32、S stated they didnt support capitalism. Theres an interesting signal coming from public markets which are becoming more skeptical of some over-ambitious tech start-ups painting persuasive pictures of growth that dont always translate to business success. Uber went public in May 2019 but, by Septembe
33、r, it was trading 30 percent below its IPO price, and its rival Lyft had slipped more than 40 percent in just six months. The same week that the smart bike business Peloton took a 10 percent tumble on its first day of trading, Airbnb decided it likely wouldnt risk listing until 2020. The most powerf
34、ul illustration of this, however, came with the collapse of the WeWork IPO in September. Its US$47 billion valuation had already been widely questioned and even dismissed as “insane” by Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business when the IPO was officially pulled after th
35、e companys valuation dropped by more than US$30 billion in a matter of days. Meanwhile, a growing number of organizations are already making important business decisions that point toward a more balanced view of what growth should mean, and lay the foundation for future gains. Swedish newspaper Dage
36、ns ETC banned advertising from fossil fuel firms and Walmart stopped selling ammunition for military-style weapons two purposeful stands that will inevitably hit their finances but, crucially, improve their standing in the eyes of their employees and the public. Meanwhile, New Zealand unveiled its f
37、irst “well-being budget” in May 2019: a new economic goal to make the country both a great place to make a living and to make a life. Valued at US$47 billion in August 2019, WeWork abandoned its IPO in September due to a lack of enthusiasm from potential investors. 13 T1T1Many faces of growthMany fa
38、ces of growth 14 In our Fjord Trends 2018, we predicted The ethics economy, which was about organizations increasingly taking a political stance on issues of general concern affecting their business. Our point was that businesses could no longer get by simply with corporate social responsibility. In
39、 further developments to that point, were now seeing organizations reach beyond ethics and even political involvement to ask: how do you include other motivating measures of growth in your operating mentality and still run a dynamic and successful organization? Of course, capitalism without infinite
40、 growth is a huge mental challenge but it isnt impossible. Imagine that we value as an everyday objective employees growing their abilities and increasing their future job prospects. As an employee, the value proposition of a company would be that you would grow as a person in many dimensions (and t
41、his would be measured). How attractive would that be to recruits? Imagine that companies were also evaluated on growing stronger ties to the community in which they work. Or that a companys prosperity was no longer measured on its own, but as a part of customer or natural ecosystems. New definitions
42、 of growth will lead naturally to new thinking in meaning and metrics, which might include personal growth performance measures like learning, happiness, communal longevity or good health. Food giant Sodexo, for example, is now factoring in its progress in reducing food waste when calculating its su
43、ccess. Were anticipating a watershed moment when the cost of a product or service is redefined to incorporate sustainability factors (often called externalities) as well as the financial cost of generating it. According to Professor Mariana Mazzucato, (Founder and Director of the Institute for Innov
44、ation and Public Purpose at University College London), in the future, financial institutions might stop evaluating their loans on categories of firms or countries. Instead, they might look at applicants activities that help fulfil specific missions such as removing plastic from the ocean. There sho
45、uld be “less picking winners and more picking the willing”, she says. Economic models will also evolve. As Kate Raworth of Oxford Universitys Environmental Change Institute has pointed out, the economic diagrams we use shape our models of the world, but poorly designed diagrams have skewed our under
46、standing of how the world actually works. Economic growth was not, at first, intended to signify wellbeing, she has written. Though it aspired to be a 20th century science of human behavior, it was a science based on a flawed portrait of humanity. With its dominant model “rational economic man” more
47、 accurately describing the nature of economists than that of other people, an explicit objective got lost, leading to a proxy goal: endless financial growth. Shareholders will demand environmental, social and corporate governance because, according to Robert Eccles, Visiting Professor of Management
48、Practice at Sad Business School, University of Oxford, they believe “its going to drive everything else they care about: growth, market share, and profitability”. The argument that natural resources are finite and that the planet cannot support limitless growth is a compelling one. Its likely to be
49、the major factor that eventually persuades those who question today the need for a redefinition of growth and a shift in how capitalism works. All organizations will need to work out how best to respond. To be clear, this is not a question of sustainability versus profit, but an essential strategy to staying in business. “Companies that dont adapt including companies in the financial system will go bankrupt without question. But there will be great fortunes made along this path aligned wit