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1、Global Risk 2017 Staying the Course in Banking The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the worlds leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients from the private, public, and not-for- profit sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value op
2、portunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their enterprises. Our customized approach combines deep in sight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable compet
3、itive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 85 offices in 48 countries. For more information, please visit . March 2017 | The Boston Consulting Group Staying the CourSe in Banking GerOld GrasshOFF ZuBin MOGul ThOMas PF
4、uhler nOrBerT GiTTFried CarsTen WieGand andreas BOhn VOlker VOnhOFF Global risk 2017 2 | Staying the Course in Banking ContentS 3 Overview 6 The ecOnOmic PrOfiTabiliTy Of GlObal bankinG inches hiGher Regional Divergence in Economic Profit Outlook: Focusing on Resources 10 reGulaTiOn: an era Of cOnsT
5、anT evOluTiOn Financial Stability Prudent Operations Resolution 18 an aGenda fOr sTayinG The cOurse in GlObal bankinG 19 fOr furTher readinG 20 nOTe TO The reader The Boston Consulting Group | 3 oVerVieW T he banking industry continues on the road to recovery, staying the course of recent years. The
6、 globally averaged perfor- mance of banks, measured by economic profit (EP), inched higher in 2015 for the fifth year in a row, according to BCGs seventh annual study of the industrys health. Our study assessed the EP of more than 300 retail, commercial, and investment banks in 2015. Banks performan
7、ce comes against a backdrop of intensifying regulation. As we forecast in 2016, the seas of regulatory change have continued to surge worldwide, producing a strong impact on banks strategic and operational planning efforts. Coping with regulation, therefore, must remain a priority. The increasing co
8、sts of doing so will pressure all banks to create more effective and efficient processes. Top performers will use the opportunity to incorporate technical innovation even as they optimize the allocation of scarce financial resources. economic Profitability Despite the steady, if slow, global improve
9、ment, banks performance diverged considerably by region. At the same time, the gap between high-performing banks and those performing below par continued to widen in some regions. In Europe, banks balance sheets continued to contract, and their neg- ative ePs remained at the level of the previous ye
10、ar. income rose, but so did operating costs, and the slight reduction in risk costs wasnt suf- ficient to regain positive EP. Moreover, the divergence between top and bottom performers in Europe continued to grow, unlike in North America, where the range of EP was stable. banks in north america cont
11、inued on a positive path. Their balance sheets grew, and they reduced both operating and risk costs. Changes in income did not significantly affect eP. 4 | Staying the Course in Banking Bank performance in other regions was similarly diverse. In the Mid- dle East and Africa results continued to impr
12、ove, while the EP of asia-Pacific banks shrank slightly. banks in south america experi- enced a sharp decline in performance, mainly as a result of increased risk costs. we have observed that leading banks in the west are focusing on tight and efficient management of resources and costs to tackle th
13、e chal- lenges of bolstering and building eP. also, these banks are finally fo- cusing on regulation at all levels of strategic and operational planning. regulation The era of constantly evolving and increasing regulatory requirements persists. The number of individual regulatory changes that banks
14、must track on a global scale has more than tripled since 2011, to an average of 200 revisions per day. we have identified three overarching themes in this evolution. The first is that increasing regulation is here to staymuch like a perma- nent rise in sea level as opposed to an incoming tide that w
15、ill ebb. We expect this theme to hold despite recent political developments in the us that may augur critical challenges to regulatory implementation. while many of the major, top-priority reform packages are already in place, banks will now face the burden of implementing technical regu- latory mea
16、sures and responding to audits. second, actions by individ- ual jurisdictions, rather than by globally coordinated initiatives, will remain the source of most new and changing requirements that banks must comply with. Third, the influence of regulation on strategic and operational planning will cont
17、inue to be significant; for example, reg- ulation still consumes the largest share of banks project portfolios. For all three reasons, tracking and complying with regulation needs to remain high on banks agendas. To assess the current status of regulation, we organized the global spectrum into three
18、 clusters: financial stability, prudent operations, and resolution. Financial Stability. This is the most developed area of reform, although evolution continues. capital remains the name of the game, as pressure by investors and peers pushes capital require- ments higher. achieving common equity Tie
19、r 1 ratios above 12% seems to be a minimum goal. The Basel IV reform package, howev- er, is adding both uncertainty and complexity to this environment. The leverage ratio is the second most important indicator in the capital game. we believe that the minimum ambition level for this ratio will rise t
20、o 5% to 6%. Stress testing will gain importance, from both a quantitative and a qualitative perspective. The latter perspective requires a governance framework that includes audit processes on scenario relevance and the use of stress test results for management decisions and bank steering. Prudent O
21、perations. Since the 20072008 financial crisis, strict regulatory enforcement has brought cumulative financial penalties The Boston Consulting Group | 5 of roughly $321 billion (through the end of 2016). While US regulators have assessed most of the fines, their counterparts in Europe and Asia will
22、likely step up the pace. Managing these costs is a major burden for banks, requiring the creation of a strong non-financial-risk framework to avoid errors of the past. Changing values and ethical standards are already reframing banks business judgments and individual executives decision making, as t
23、he ques- tion “Was it lawful?” becomes “Was it legitimate?” Resolution. relative to other areas of reform, resolution remains the least developed and most pressing. There is still no consensus on how to close down (or unwind) banks or on which preparatory, structural measures might be needed. Howeve
24、r, some potentially significant contributions to bank resolution are emerging from measures that have already been implemented by some banks or that have been specifically requested by regulators in certain jurisdictions. These include both quantitative and structural adjustments and changes. Quanti
25、tative measures include in- creasing liquid assets, ensuring sufficient “bail-in-able” debt, and reducing balance sheet size. structural measures include the implementation of nonoperating holding structures at the group or intermediate level within a specific jurisdiction, the reduction of legal-en
26、tity complexity, the separation of critical economic functions (which often relate to home markets), and the provision of solutions out of separate service entities. an agenda for Staying the Course Ultimately, managing regulations will remain high on the agendas of banks risk and steering teams. De
27、fining an efficient mode of interac- tion between banks and regulators will be a critical task. However, there are two additional challenges to staying the course using a resource-based strategy. Bank steering functions, for one, will need to become more involved and effective in overall cost manage
28、ment. Their tools for doing so are variedfrom adjusting the organization and operating models to har- nessing the strong potential of new technologies. Partnering with both fintech and regtech startups can provide access to innovative capabili- ties and solutions relevant to bank steering. Offerings
29、 include more flexible iT infrastructures that are based on advanced analytics and big data and on improvements in process efficiency and automation. nonetheless, banks must not forget that their risk and steering func- tions are responsible for optimizing the scarce financial resources of capital,
30、liquidity, and funding. Success will require closer collaboration of those functions and more integrated management of the banks P in North America, however, the range of EP was stable. europe. The balance sheets of european banks are still shrinking, which, combined with low margins, makes profit g
31、eneration even more difficult. Net interest income has remained almost flat since 2012, and fee and commission income, as well as trading income, have stagnated. banks have not been able to reduce their cost bases, operating costs have risen even higher than they did directly after the crisis, and r
32、isk costs remain twice as high as before the crisis for both loan The Boston Consulting Group | 7 loss provisions and capital costs. even though the cost of equity is decreasing, the increase in equity volume has kept the total effect at a consistently high level. The main year-on-year change from 2
33、014 to 2015 was an increase in operating costs of 11 basis points, incurred as banks continued to restructure. The increase was mitigated by the combination of the remaining components, resulting in a nearly constant result overall. However, the gap between top performers and bottom performers in eu
34、rope continues to expand. Top performers have attained suc- cess mainly by controlling operating and risk costs, whereas bottom performers labor un- der extremely high risk costs. north america. for banks in the us and canada, unlike those in europe, balance sheets continue to grow, improving the ba
35、sis for income. However, on a per-asset basis, net interest income for north american banks has been decreasing since 2010, revealing the pressure on margins. Fee income, how- ever, has been increasing since 2013 and is a stabilizing factor for P Bank scope; Bloomberg; BCG risk Task Force database;
36、BCG analysis. Note: exchange rates at the end of 2015 are used for comparability. Values may not add up to the totals shown because of rounding. 1Total assets are lower than in europe and asia-Pacific because of local and us generally accepted accounting principles. Exhibit 1 | The Economic Profit o
37、f Banks Continues to Improve in North America, but Not in Europe 8 | Staying the Course in Banking 9395 125 126 123123 114 232 311 285 264 244 249 343 331 304277 263 248245 324331 316 995 941 495 402 368 9495 99 93 9899 99 87 99 90 99 9395 105 101 143 171 94 177 170 199 198 214 231 117 116 285 274 3
38、55 355 373 402 331 320 274 284 121 14 41 114 261 49 98 288 75 150 298 263 320 305 307 117 147 122 35 57 136 124 30 54 112 142 144 37 56 111 128 161 34 50 128 167 27 51 19 50 150 19 49 100 156 22 538 39 1,140 103 144 19 52 153 190 59 176 113 179 6069 94 165 183 125 147 152 114 91 109 280 53 102 125 2
39、82 62 111 149 375 47 764 1,192 181 34 645 364 1,078 202 41 33 217 391 518516 199 382 31 1,035 632 507 45 422 1,111 239 44 102 144 17 46 102 119 14 43 211 98 66 234 196 156 100 64 147 196 194 98 55 150 189 181 91 48 129 168 123 130 165 39 55 114 128 189 39 55 455 310 North America1Middle East and Afr
40、icaEuropeSouth America1 Asia-Pacifi c COMPONENTS OF ECONOMIC PROFIT GENERATED BY GLOBAL BANKS, RELATIVE TO TOTAL ASSETS, 20092015 BASIS POINTS Refi nancing costsRisk costsOperating costCost components per asset Income components per assetInterest and dividends Economic profi t per asset Fees and com
41、missionsTrading and other sources 363358 356 329 341 379 404 393400398 354364 431418 528 505 488 465 460 600 640 541512 469442 425 678 729 383 398392400387 342 328 346346341346341 319 306 1,370 1,225 1,181 1,289 1,408 1,297 1,411 1,253 1,126 1,100 1,190 1,351 1,182 1,303 555 512 523 518 505 567 659
42、519 473473457 438 537 586 30 42 42 25 24 38 26 72478 37 51 50 54 46 22 22118 99 81 99 57 115 10836 39 50 62 67 30 73 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20092015 200001020122014 14193689 20000920009200092015 436 Sources: annual report
43、s; Bank scope; Bloomberg; BCG risk Task Force database; BCG analysis. Note: all values are per asset; that is, the total value in euros divided by the total assets in euros. Values may not add up to the totals shown because of rounding. The order of regions shown reflects a focus on europe and north
44、 america; the remaining regions are sorted according to total assets. exchange rates from the end of 2015 are used for comparability. 1Total assets are lower than in europe and asia-Pacific because of local and us generally accepted accounting principles. Exhibit 2 | The Components of Economic Profi
45、t Varied Widely by Region in 2015 The Boston Consulting Group | 9 risk and operating costs than by deterioration in net interest income. asia-Pacific. The EP of banks in Asia-Pacific stayed positive in 2015, though it declined to 46 basis points from 54 in 2014. Despite the growth of assets, net int
46、erest income and trading income on a per-asset level have remained nearly flat since 2011, though fee income rose slightly. Operating costs have continued to decrease since 2011, but risk costs have risen for three consecutive years. The range of EP for Asia-Pacific banks has narrowed because the we
47、aker players performance has remained steady while the top players results have declined. south america. After a period of very high EP from 2009 through 2014during which EP ranged from a low of 81 basis points to a high of 118the performance of banks in south america declined sharply, to only 57 ba
48、sis points, in 2015. With growing balance sheets, net interest income for south ameri- can banks remained fairly constant in the preceding three years, while fee income declined. The sharp year-on-year eP decline of 42 basis points in 2015 was mainly trig- gered by an increase of 30 basis points in
49、risk costs. Operating costs also rose for the first time after a continued decrease since 2009. The range of EP is widening, as a result of both increasing values for top performers (because of greater net interest income) and decreasing values for bottom performers (owing to a reduction in net interest income). Middle east and africa. eP continued to rise at banks in the middle east and africa, even as net interest income remained nearly flat and trading income decreased. slight reduc- tions in both operating and risk costs in 2015 boosted EP by 5 basis