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1、Use Scenario Planning to Prepare for an UncertainEnergy FutureGartner ResearchRich McAvey,Zarko Sumic,Ethan Cohen,Mike Ramsey,Bettina Tratz-Ryan,Keith Harrison,Stephen Smith,Chet Geschickter,Nicole Foust,Simon Cushing,Lloyd Jones11 August 2021Gartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 1 of 11Use Scenario Planning t
2、o Prepare for an UncertainEnergy FuturePublished 11 August 2021-ID G00755172-11 min readBy Analyst(s):Rich McAvey,Zarko Sumic,Ethan Cohen,Mike Ramsey,Bettina Tratz-Ryan,Keith Harrison,Stephen Smith,Chet Geschickter,Nicole Foust,Simon Cushing,Lloyd JonesInitiatives:Executive Leadership:Sustainability
3、;CIO Leadership of Innovation,Disruptive Trends and Emerging PracticesRapidly growing demand for energy and consequentialenvironmental impacts is creating global disruptions for everyindustry.Executive leaders should use the future of energyscenario to anticipate,prepare and navigate a complex and v
4、olatilefuture.OverviewKey FindingsAs developing countries make economic progress,their growing energy needs placesubstantial pressure on global energy markets and environmental conditions.Economic incentives do not reflect the total societal cost of increasing energyproduction on the environment ske
5、wing near-term investments.Energy availability and cost are,directly or indirectly,fundamental factors thatdetermine the viability of every business in every industry.Most companies are notaware of how much exposure they have to disruptions coming from energy markets.Energy markets are at an inflect
6、ion point.Growing demand,lack of“game-changing”technologies and unreliable investment incentives make the future of energy hard topredict.Data and digital technologies,if used in novel ways,may be a large factor inshaping future energy scenarios.Most executive leaders have not yet connectedtheir dig
7、ital strategies with the underlying risks from energy disruption.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 2 of 11RecommendationsExecutive leaders involved in designing an adaptive strategy to prepare for the impact ofenergy disruption on their organization should:AnalysisThis research is adapted from Succeeding i
8、n a World Where the Future of Energy Disrupts Everything,which guides the CIOs to prepare for an uncertain energy future by scenario planning.According to the International Energy Agency(IEA),the energy demand is projected to grow 15%from 2020 through 2030.1 Over the same period,the energy-related C
9、O2emissions are forecast to grow by approximately 11%.1Beyond 2050,industry experts forecasts over the last few years diverge significantly.Some anticipate sustained growth,some predict negative growth and others forecast initial growth then decline.1 These ranges of uncertainty make it impossible f
10、or companies to plan specific strategies to cope with their exposure to energy market disruptions.Also,since the COVID-19 outbreak,long-term energy forecasts have grown less clear.It is for this reason that Gartner created the planning scenarios in this research.Because when leaders face extreme unc
11、ertainty,traditional planning approaches do not always work.Scenarios help leaders come up with a variety of potential outcomes rather than a single-point,static forecast based on assumptions.Use scenario planning to prepare for an uncertain energy future and interpretchanges in a wide range of forc
12、es(social,technological,economic,environmentaland political)to anticipate energy disruptions in a timely manner.Analyze their organizations exposure to energy disruption by using four scenarios toidentify which uncertainties present the greatest risks and opportunities to theirbusiness model and inv
13、estment portfolio.Strengthen their organizations readiness for the future by asking the right questionsto challenge conventional thinking,reviewing the impact of energy scenarios on theirorganizations business model and keeping their IT operating model in sync withcurrent requirements.Gartner,Inc.|G
14、00755172Page 3 of 11Four Future of Energy ScenariosIn April 2019,we gathered a multidisciplinary team to address energy uncertainty,create aframework and build a set of scenarios that describes the future of energy across allindustries.Scenario methodology looks at a wide range of current and emergi
15、ng political,social,economic and other forces that will significantly influence the future,and enablesenterprises to identify big forces that may affect future outcomes.The future of energy scenario framework is based on two forces:economic externalities indirect economic factors that shape energy c
16、osts and investment incentives,such asthe consequences of energy production on the environment,taxes and subsidies;andtechnology capabilities state-of-the-art capabilities for creating,distributing andconsuming energy,including proven means and new inventions.The intersection of thesetwo forces prov
17、ides us with four unique possible scenarios(see Figure 1).Figure 1.Future of Energy FrameworkGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 4 of 11It also represents a plausible outcome that helps executive leaders identify how they feelabout the future today.Executive leaders should share it with their cross-functiona
18、l peersand the board to achieve a common vision.Scenario A:Status Quo WorldCompanies in this scenario are trying to hang on to what they have,putting up barriers tokeep out new market entrants.Most of their opportunities are created by other peoplesmoney mainly governments.Status quo companies tend
19、to be predictable,reliable,have achieved economies of scale,and concentrate on cost-efficiency and operationalexcellence.There is a strong focus on risk management,and they typically will not investin something that may undermine their main revenue streams.They will respond to thingsthey have to suc
20、h as natural disasters and regulations.Nobodys business model willbe disrupted or significantly changed in this scenario(see Table 1).Business Context:Technology state,business model,investment posture and otherfactorsBusiness Mindset:Operational excellence,bimodal,preferred player or growthHow to W
21、in in This Scenario:Advice for companies that want to(or must)remain orenter and succeed in a specific scenarioEach scenario identified in the future of energy framework explores the followingcharacteristics:Gartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 5 of 11Table 1:Scenario A:Status Quo WorldSource:Gartner(August 2
22、021)We believe this scenario may not be sustainable in the long term.A catastrophic event(or series of events)could destroy a status quo company.For example,a California utility that faced bankruptcy due to environmental disasters and regulatory fines.Or,a sudden change in energy policy and knee-jer
23、k regulation as experienced in Japan and Germany following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor incident.Winners in this scenario arereally just survivors mixing strong core businessoperation optimization withpreemptive regulatorymanagement.Their goal isto protect the currentbusiness model by avoid
24、ingdamage from policychanges.There are no long-term winning strategies inthis scenario,but to surviveorganizations must:Business Context:Mostly StableBusiness Mindset:OperationalExcellenceHow to Win in ThisScenarioNo one has atechnologyadvantageSubsidies and taxesare inconsistent andtransientThere i
25、s minimalthreat from newbusiness modelsThey worry aboutharmful regulationsThere are minimallarge investmentsThey use minimaldigital primarily tooptimize performanceProtect capitalinvestmentPrioritize cost-efficiencyManage regulatoryissues preemptivelyGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 6 of 11In this scenari
26、o,there are some technological breakthroughs(such as scalable andaffordable storage)that could enhance revenue or improve cost-efficiencies byaddressing environmental impact.But the subsidies may be too weak to offset anytechnology-driven gains or enable technology to scale.Companies may be able to
27、mixtraditional and digital business models in this scenario,to open up new regions ordomains(wind or solar,for example)or leverage platform business models to enable peer-to-peer energy exchanges on a limited scale.But the main purpose of digital here is to addvalue for the new technology(see Table
28、2).Table 2:Scenario B:Mixed World(Enlarged table in Appendix)This scenario is more of a free-for-all that favors aggressive incumbents,well-capitalized new entrants and those with deep pockets who can invest in a breakthrough innovation.If Mixed World incumbents cannot compete,they will be pushed ou
29、t of the marketplace.However,these companies tend to have more diversified asset portfolios,are agile and thus can scale more quickly than those in other scenarios and have a higher risk tolerance.Scenario B:Mixed WorldGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 7 of 11In this scenario,the“customer”is really the reg
30、ulator or policymaker.A breakthroughtechnology hasnt emerged yet.So rather than focusing on technology innovation andconsequent business process transformation,companies rely on government subsidiesand accept regulatory constraints to set up business directions.In fact,policymakers-regulators often
31、try to force certain activities through taxation,incentives,cap and trade,tariffs and other government programs.Politicians can“pick winners”by regulatingpricing emission controls and other parameters(see Table 3).Table 3:Scenario C:Governed WorldSource:Gartner(August 2021)Winners in this scenario a
32、reexperts at extractingadditional incremental valuefrom existing assets anddeferring large investmentswhose ROI depends onvolatile regulations;forexample,solar subsidies.They also have plenty ofregulatory acumen toinfluence energy policy.Those who best anticipatechanges and adjustoperating modelsacc
33、ordingly will win.Tosucceed they must:Business Context:AdaptabilityBusiness Mindset:Preferred PlayerHow to Win in ThisScenarioMarket prices fullyreflect true valueTransformation isshaped byregulations,notinnovationExisting businessmodels adapt asneededRegulator relationsand strategy are topprioritie
34、sSweat assets areoften used to avoidrisky investmentsThey use digital forreliability,agility andadaptabilityBalance regulatoryand operatingprioritiesAvoid gettingentrenched in rigidassets or marketsFind ways to createnonregulated revenueScenario C:Governed WorldGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 8 of 11In t
35、his scenario,economic externalities may vary by market/region but the governmentguarantees investments.Governed World companies make sure that they will not beadversely affected by externality variations or regulatory intervention.For example,if theyare told to close down their coal plants,they will
36、 expect to get a financial incentive inreturn.They will do business in any space;for example,electric vehicles,as long as theyare receiving subsidies to do so.They cannot afford to embrace any particular technology,market or product because the government may force them out or incentivize them to do
37、something else.As a result,they adopt technology more slowly and more incrementally.Scenario D:Transformed WorldCompanies in the Transformed World scenario benefit from strong capital availability,transformational technology breakthroughs and emerging new business models(seeTable 4).Technology advan
38、cements such as hyper-low-cost photovoltaic generation,IoT-based demand management and large-scale electricity storage,for example,will changethe nature of energy markets.Instead of supply-centric(generation,distribution andconsumption),the Transformed World scenario will be customer-centric:How do
39、we givecustomers the products and services they want and need,and how do we create valuefrom these products and services?Gartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 9 of 11Table 4:Scenario D:Transformed WorldSource:Gartner(August 2021)These companies focus on figuring out how to buy,sell,invest and manage all of thi
40、s in away that delivers customer value.In this scenario,technology(or technologies)hasshown extreme success and the government is setting up pathways for the technology toscale up.Companies that have this technology will be very successful,since the role ofdigital is to truly disrupt and create new
41、value streams.Winners in this scenarioneed an aggressiveentrepreneurial culture andleaders who constantlypursue new opportunities.They will make massiveinvestments and needcollaborative partnershipswith co-innovators andlarge-scale executionplayers.Winners experimentto learn and unlockeconomic value
42、 from game-changing technologies.Towin,organizations must:Business Context:AggressiveBusiness Mindset:GrowthHow to Win in ThisScenarioUnprecedentedbusiness opportunityInvestment drivestransformationNew business modelsdominateThey collaborate withcustomers on newproducts and servicesThey createpartne
43、rships toexpand rapidlyDigital is used tocreate new disruptivevalue streamsBuild new digitalbusiness platforms toscaleDevelop a globalecosystem for growthCreate innovative newbusiness modelsGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 10 of 11How to Use These Scenarios to Prepare for the FutureThe scenarios in this r
44、esearch provide a rich narrative;however,they should be viewed asthe starting point for executive leaders to anticipate change and develop practicalstrategies for navigating through this complex and volatile period.Each scenario has verydistinct requirements around how data and digital technologies
45、will play.This means thatexecutive leaders priorities will vary depending upon which scenario unfolds:It is virtually impossible for an executive leader to prepare for all four of these divergentscenarios at the same time.To avoid having their enterprises pulled apart by inconsistentresponses to the
46、 evolution of energy scenarios,they must focus on three priorities:Status Quo World Scenario:Use minimal digital to optimize performance.Mixed World Scenario:Use digital to enable a bimodal business model.Governed World Scenario:Use digital for reliability,agility and adaptability.Transformed World
47、Scenario:Use digital to create new disruptive value streams.Ask the right questions to raise awareness:Identify opportunities,risks andunknown factors by asking questions.For example,do customers want your productin the new world?Will climate change considerations destroy your business model,create
48、new business model opportunities or both?How will energy policies affectyour customers and employees?Use scenarios to review the business model:Scenario risks and unknowns will leadto fundamentally different business models.Understand what areas of the businessneed to respond.Engaging your direct re
49、ports and cross-functional leaders toidentify the most appropriate future scenario can help provide context to develop,refine and revise the model,or even develop new ones and strategies,based onbusiness goals.Let scenarios define change in the operating model:Organize changes to yourbusinesss opera
50、ting model to stay in sync with scenario development.Scenarios arealso useful for synchronizing the enterprises operating model with business models.While business models show what needs to be done,the operating model showshow things get done.Bimodal operation will be a key core competency for achie
51、vingfuture success,but if the operating model does not change,the enterprise businessmodel and strategy development will not come to fruition.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 11 of 11Executive leaders should play a significant role in identifying a“desired state”for any given“Future of Energy”scenario and
52、 align the operating model with it,as appropriate.Above all,they must confirm that their operating model supports current mission-critical priorities,while ensuring that it evolves to fit future scenarios.Evidence1 Global Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions Trends in the Stated Policies Scenario,2019-20
53、30,International Energy Agency.Recommended by the AuthorsSome documents may not be available as part of your current Gartner subscription.Top 10 Trends Driving the Utility Industry in 2021Succeeding in a World Where the Future of Energy Disrupts EverythingIndustry Insights:2021 Oil and Gas Top Trend
54、sUrgent Action Needed:Energy Markets Are Changing Faster Than Energy CompaniesHow Energy Executives Can Get Ahead of Environmental Risks With Strong Greenhouse Gas CommitmentsEnergy Companies Are Facing a Decade of Deep Redesign and Need Strong CIO Leadership 2022 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.A
55、ll rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark ofGartner,Inc.and its affiliates.This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any formwithout Gartners prior written permission.It consists of the opinions of Gartners researchorganization,which should not be construed as statements of
56、 fact.While the information contained inthis publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,Gartner disclaims all warrantiesas to the accuracy,completeness or adequacy of such information.Although Gartner research mayaddress legal and financial issues,Gartner does not provide leg
57、al or investment advice and its researchshould not be construed or used as such.Your access and use of this publication are governed byGartners Usage Policy.Gartner prides itself on its reputation for independence and objectivity.Itsresearch is produced independently by its research organization wit
58、hout input or influence from anythird party.For further information,see Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.Gartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 1A of 4ATable 1:Scenario A:Status Quo WorldSource:Gartner(August 2021)Winners in this scenario are really just survivors mixing strong core business o
59、perationoptimization with preemptive regulatorymanagement.Their goal is to protect the currentbusiness model by avoiding damage from policychanges.There are no long-term winningstrategies in this scenario,but to surviveorganizations must:Business Context:Mostly StableBusiness Mindset:OperationalExce
60、llenceHow to Win in This ScenarioNo one has a technology advantageSubsidies and taxes are inconsistent andtransientThere is minimal threat from new businessmodelsThey worry about harmful regulationsThere are minimal large investmentsThey use minimal digital primarily to optimizeperformanceProtect ca
61、pital investmentPrioritize cost-efficiencyManage regulatory issues preemptivelyGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 2A of 4ATable 2:Scenario B:Mixed WorldSource:Gartner(August 2021)Winners in this scenario are organizations capableof sustaining traditional business operations inmost regions while also investi
62、ng heavily in newtechnology in regions with favorable economics.They also must balance regulatory and operatingpriorities.To succeed in this scenario,organizations must possess:Business Context:BalancingBusiness Mindset:BimodalHow to Win in This ScenarioGame-changing technologies existInvestment inc
63、entives are weak or inconsistentOld and new business models coexistThey focus on selective regions or energydomainsThey will pour legacy cash flow into attractivenew marketsThey use digitally primarily to enable a bimodalbusiness modelMarket savvy techniques to identify the mostattractive marketsAbi
64、lity to invest at scale in diverse regionsMultiple,mixed strategies and operationsGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 3A of 4ATable 3:Scenario C:Governed WorldSource:Gartner(August 2021)Winners in this scenario are experts at extractingadditional incremental value from existing assetsand deferring large inve
65、stments whose ROIdepends on volatile regulations;for example,solarsubsidies.They also have plenty of regulatoryacumen to influence energy policy.Those who bestanticipate changes and adjust operating modelsaccordingly will win.To succeed they must:Business Context:AdaptabilityBusiness Mindset:Preferr
66、ed PlayerHow to Win in This ScenarioMarket prices fully reflect true valueTransformation is shaped by regulations,notinnovationExisting business models adapt as neededRegulator relations and strategy are topprioritiesSweat assets are often used to avoid riskyinvestmentsThey use digital for reliabili
67、ty,agility andadaptabilityBalance regulatory and operating prioritiesAvoid getting entrenched in rigid assets ormarketsFind ways to create nonregulated revenueGartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 4A of 4ATable 4:Scenario D:Transformed WorldSource:Gartner(August 2021)Winners in this scenario need an aggressive
68、entrepreneurial culture and leaders who constantlypursue new opportunities.They will make massiveinvestments and need collaborative partnershipswith co-innovators and large-scale executionplayers.Winners experiment to learn and unlockeconomic value from game-changing technologies.To win,organization
69、s must:Business Context:AggressiveBusiness Mindset:GrowthHow to Win in This ScenarioUnprecedented business opportunityInvestment drives transformationNew business models dominateThey collaborate with customers on newproducts and servicesThey create partnerships to expand rapidlyDigital is used to cr
70、eate new disruptive valuestreamsBuild new digital business platforms to scaleDevelop a global ecosystem for growthCreate innovative new business modelsPosition your organization for success.Explore these additional complimentary resources and tools on for CIOs:eBookCIO AgendaThe leadership,organizat
71、ional and technology priorities CIOs must address in 2023.Download NowActionable,objective insightAlready a client?Get access to even more resources in your client portal.Log InToolGartner Digital Execution ScorecardTMMeasure progress,prioritize initiatives and align the C-suite.Get StartedeBookTop
72、10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2023Explore the trends that will impact your strategic ambitions over the next three years.Read NowResource HubInsights and Tools for CIOs in the Energy and Utility IndustryDrive stronger performance on your mission-critical priorities.Learn More 2022 Gartner,Inc.a
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