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1、Accelerating success.U.S.Consumers Cautiously Confident:A breakdown of retail shopping trendsSpring 2023|U.S.Retail ReportContents Introduction U.S.Consumers Cautiously Confident Retail Spend by Category Informed Choices Drive New Shopping Habits ConclusionIntroductionAnjee Solanki|National Director
2、,Retail Services&Practice GroupsAmerican shopping habits have undergone significant changes in recent years,driven by various factors such as technological advancements,shifting consumer preferences,and changing economic conditions.Consumers preference for convenience and a broader selection of prod
3、ucts has proliferated the constancy of online shopping.Retailer programs that optimize sustainability and social responsibility continue to be necessary to maintain shopper loyalties.As identified within this report,retailers are prioritizing an optichannel strategy to meet changing consumer needs.3
4、U.S.ResearchShoppers Display Measured Optimism Pros and cons of economic uncertaintyInflation remains elevated and continues to drive consumer and shopping behavior changes within the retail industry.If inflation persists,consumers may exercise caution with their spending and seek ways to save money
5、.They may also be more likely to shop for bargains,switch to low-cost products,and increase their savings.For example,dollar store sales have increased by nearly 30%since 2019.Once economic conditions improve,we expect discretionary categories like apparel,home,and electrical to rebound more strongl
6、y.Additionally,consumers outlook and behavior will shift,giving them confidence in their purchasing power and willingness to spend on non-essential items.GlobalData estimates for inflation.Source:GlobalData analysis-3.00-1.001.003.005.007.009.0011.0013.0015.00Jan-20Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
7、 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Se p-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Se p-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23Inflation comes down as non-food retailers discount at the start of the pandemicI
8、nflation kicks in as commodity prices increase and retail costs increaseThe inflation rate falls,but inflation remains elevatedInflation returns to more normal levels,before starting to riseRetail Report|Spring 20234Differing reactions to inflationConsumers are changing how they shop,mostly downshif
9、ting their spending behavior and hunting for bargains.Low-income consumers,representing 29.1%of the total U.S.population,tend to be the most vulnerable to inflationary fluctuations as they have limited purchasing power and may struggle to afford necessities.Middle-income consumers,representing the m
10、ajority of the population at 50.2%,are inclined to reduce their spending on discretionary items and focus on what they need most.They may also consider shopping for lower-priced alternatives or taking advantage of sales and discounts more often.High-income consumers,representing 20.7%of the populati
11、on,have the most purchasing power and ability to adjust their spending habits to live within their means.They are more likely to be selective in their purchases,focusing on higher-quality goods and services less affected by inflation or looking for opportunities to invest in assets that hedge agains
12、t economic uncertainties.GlobalData estimates for inflation.Source:GlobalData analysisOverall retail inflation rate for each quarterYear-over-year percentage change in prices for each quarterPercentage of consumers responding to inflation in different waysJanuary 2023 data2.121.221.240.361.904.855.3
13、46.697.978.648.337.10Q1,2020Q2,2020Q3,2020Q4,2020Q1,2021Q2,2021Q3,2021Q4,2021Q1,2022Q2,2022Q3,2022Q4,2022OverallLow IncomeMiddle IncomeHigh IncomeBuying fewer non-food products57.4%69.5%57.9%39.2%Driving less to save on gasoline39.6%55.8%40.1%15.6%Hunting more for bargains62.6%71.2%65.6%43.2%Trading
14、 down to cheaper brands in food and grocery55.%782.9%56.2%16.3%Shopping around more/checking more places to find better prices54.5%65.4%55.8%36.0%Eating out at fine dining restaurants less39.2%67.8%32.9%14.3%Eating out at family restaurants less28.9%48.3%25.6%9.6%Eating out at fast food restaurants
15、less10.3%13.6%9.8%9.6%2.1Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q4 2020Q4 2021Q4 2022Q2 2020Q2 2021Q2 20220.31.21.21.94.85.36.67.98.68.37.1Source:GlobalData analysis and consumer panelRetail SalesRetail SalesRetail Sales$1,128.9 B$1,351.6 B$1,281.9 B5U.S.ResearchRetailer resilience on par with co
16、nsumersSo far this year,retail sales have seen a slowdown in growth,but retail sales remain in positive territory with overall spending up by 6.5%,excluding gasoline,foodservice and automotive sales,over the prior year.Despite a modest slowdown in growth compared to most of last year,there has been
17、no significant erosion in consumer spending power.That said,the annual rate of change which is running at 6.4%is only modestly above the inflation rate for retail,which means volume growth is much thinner and,in some categories,is negative.Overall,this is a very good start to the year that underline
18、s the resilience of consumers.However,there is speculation about how performance will deteriorate as this year progresses.For the first time since 2016,major U.S.retailers opened more stores than they closed in 2022,according to Coresight Research.Compared to 2021,store closures declined by just ove
19、r 50%in 2022,with 5,103 store openings and 2,603 closures.As a result,analysts suggest 2023 will be the“year of the store,”with retailers hedging their bets on brick-and-mortar as an alternative option to shopping online.This years outlook supports that theory,with 5,200 stores slated to open and 2,
20、800 to close.The discount store and apparel sectors will likely see the most movement.Retail Spend by CategoryAnalyzing retail spending across consumer income groups can provide valuable insights for retailers.Understanding these differences can help retailers effectively tailor their product offeri
21、ngs,pricing strategies,and marketing campaigns to target each income bracket.Retailers can also use this information to identify opportunities for growth and expansion,such as introducing new product lines or expanding into new markets.Retail Report|Spring 20236Proportion of core retail spend made o
22、n different categoriesLow income consumersSource:GlobalData analysis and consumer panelSource:Creditntell Real Estate Intelligence%point change in share of spend 2019-2022Home-1.8+19.40.7+26.5+3.8+44.0-1.6+12.2+0.2+34.3BeautyGroceryElectronicsClothing17.014.310.413.444.916.214.910.613.245.215.714.81
23、1.812.545.217.115.310.413.743.519.215.910.413.441.218.115.410.411.944.318.515.410.612.443.119.114.511.211.044.321.714.010.012.641.716.714.79.012.647.0%change in actual spend 2019-2022Low-income consumersFrom 2019 to 2022,lower-income consumers making less than$52,000 per year mainly focused on groce
24、ry and apparel,as the two categories deemed essential.In addition,the current economic landscape has amplified the need for a retail value proposition for shoppers.Foot traffic analysis where retailers in the following categories experienced a significant increase in foot traffic in 2022:14.9%10.8%5
25、.2%8.5%4.3%4.1%1.24%GroceryApparel20002227U.S.ResearchMiddle-income consumersFrom 2019 to 2022,middle-income consumers made between$52,000 and$156,000 per year,with discretionary spending evenly across home and beauty categories.Foot traffic analysis where retailers
26、in the following categories experienced a significant increase in foot traffic in 2022:High-income consumersFrom 2019 to 2022,high-income consumers made more than$156,000 annually,mainly spent on high-end homes and groceries.Foot traffic analysis where retailers in the following categories experienc
27、ed a significant increase in foot traffic in 2022:%point change in share of spend 2019-2022%change in actual spend 2019-2022Proportion of core retail spend made on different categoriesMiddle income consumersSource:GlobalData analysis and consumer panelHome+0.1+17.0+0.1+17.1+2.2+23.4-0.7+8.1-1.6+2.9B
28、eautyGroceryElectronicsClothing19.015.710.314.639.520.515.710.513.939.420.916.010.713.339.221.615.610.413.738.621.116.210.213.339.221.516.210.113.738.521.216.610.013.838.523.116.510.210.140.223.016.210.312.837.721.316.79.212.140.72000222Source:Creditntell Real Estate
29、 IntelligenceSource:Creditntell Real Estate Intelligence4.3%7.9%2.7%6.3%1.4%2.9%2.1%4.3%31.8%7.0%7.8%6.2%4.1%3.3%2.24%HomeGroceryBeautyHomeRetail Report|Spring 20238Source:GlobalData analysis and consumer panel%point change in share of spend 2019-2022%change in actual spend 2019-2022Proportion of co
30、re retail spend made on different categoriesHigh income consumersHome+7.5+30.8-4.1+16.6-0.7+20.8-4.1+15.3+7.5+17.0BeautyGroceryElectronicsClothing25.116.69.115.733.625.016.78.816.433.125.116.88.116.933.024.717.58.615.633.625.116.98.815.633.525.617.09.015.532.925.816.68.915.033.726.516.59.311.935.827
31、.316.19.114.133.327.815.98.414.433.420002229U.S.ResearchSource:GlobalData analysisTotal US restaurant foodservice spending$trillionFoodservice spendRestaurant spending has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels,recording solid growth since its COVID-19 plunge in 2020
32、.However,there is a disparity between full-service and quick-service restaurants(QSR).Quick-service spending is up 0.8%,and full-service restaurant(FSR)spending is down 7.9%on the pre-pandemic period a reflection of the willingness and ability of consumers to directly spend toward relatively cheap q
33、uick-service restaurants versus more expensive full-service restaurants.Foot traffic analysis where retailers in the following categories experienced a significant increase in foot traffic in 2022:Source:Creditntell Real Estate Intelligence10.3%9.9%7.6%6.3%6.0%6.9%30.3%24.8%20.9%18.9%Full-service Re
34、staurantsQuick-service Restaurants2.52.62.52.52.72.82.82.12.62.72000022Retail Report|Spring 202310Source:GlobalData consumer panel and trackingChange in time taken to browse and number of stores browsed2019 to 2022Informed Choices Drive New Shopping HabitsKnow before
35、 you goWith the rise of ecommerce and the availability of product listings online,consumers now have more options to make informed decisions.Consumers are browsing more often and researching before making big and small purchases.As a result,consumers have become more discerning about what they buy a
36、s they weigh the pros and cons to ensure they are getting the best value for the right product.Comparison shopping and advanced research have become the norm.Consumers are more likely to shop around,prioritizing price and quality with their purchases.As a result,the pressure is on retailers and bran
37、ds to offer premium products and competitive pricing to meet consumer demand to remain competitive in the marketplace and provide a better shopping experience for customers.Time taken to browse+31mins+11mins+57mins+6minsNumber of stores browsed+3.8stores+1.8stores+2.4stores+1.2storesSpecialclothingE
38、verydayclothingHomefurnishingsFood11U.S.ResearchTrading places,high and lowAs many consumers trade down to save money,brand loyalties are shifting to retailers who adjust their focus to meet consumers where they are and at a competitive price point.Food and groceryConsumers lower their food and groc
39、ery expenses by choosing affordable private-label goods and lower-cost brands.A cautious mindset is becoming the norm as families adapt their shopping patterns to current economic conditions.This year,Walmart offered Easter meals and bundles at affordable prices consistent with 2022 prices,a move ai
40、med at drawing more customers to its stores when egg prices surged,and consumers tightened their purse strings.Beauty As an affordable luxury,consumers continue to treat themselves to beauty products as self-care that prioritizes their well-being.Beauty customers have cut back on the number of produ
41、cts they purchase in favor of splurging on must-have items like lipstick,perfumes,and others.e.l.f.Beauty reports strong sales that exceeded Wall Streets expectations.The company grew net sales by 49%in the fiscal third quarter,marking its 16th quarter of net sales growth.Luxury digital retailer Glo
42、ssier expanded its physical footprint in 2022,opening new locations in Brooklyn and Philadelphia.The beauty brand started as an online-only retailer experimenting with limited pop-up locations in select cities.They soon discovered the in-person shopping experience made a significant impact on their
43、sales as well as on social media performance.Subscription boxes from brands such as Thrive Market and Grove Collaborative typically contain various products for the home,such as cleaning supplies,toiletries,and kitchen items.Household consumables Household subscription boxes have become a popular al
44、ternative for consumers to stock up on household items and supplies.Delivered monthly or quarterly,consumers now have a cost-effective option to access discounts or savings on essential items.Some boxes may include exclusive or hard-to-find items that may be more expensive if bought separately.The S
45、aks Luxury Pulse survey recently found that consumers plan to continue spending on luxury over the next three months,with the majority of respondents(62%)planning to spend the same or more on luxury compared to the previous period.Those respondents with an income of$200K+plan to prioritize spending
46、on travel,events,and activities,followed by clothing.Apparel Despite the evolving economic environment,sustained interest in luxury persists.Retail Report|Spring 202312Percentage of consumer who are trading up and down in various categoriesJanuary 2023Percentage of consumers shopping at different ty
47、pes of store2007,2012,2022/USAValue retailers are among the main winners in picking up an increased share of shoppers.High-end retailers have also made gains,but both have come at the expense of the middle market.Consumers across all income brackets have decreased spending at mid-market retailers ov
48、er the past 15 years.As a result,retailers like Bed Bath&Beyond Inc.,Party City and others have had a rough go with inconsistent foot traffic,shifting consumer demand,and elevated costs.Meanwhile,brands like Kohls are examining price-focused alternative strategies to counter their historical discoun
49、t and promotional pricing,in addition to their in-store partnerships with Amazon and Sephora.Source:GlobalData analysis and consumer panelSource:GlobalData analysis and consumer panelTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingupdownupdownupdownupdownOverall35.7%55.7%Overall8.4%60.2%Over
50、all40.6%27.5%Overall21.3%38.6%Low income22.1%82.9%Low income5.2%85.8%Low income28.2%38.4%Low income12.2%51.6%Mid income39.8%56.2%Mid income6.6%62.1%Mid income40.1%26.2%Mid income22.2%40.8%High income44.9%16.3%High income17.3%19.6%High income59.2%15.3%High income31.9%15.0%Food and groceryHousehold co
51、nsumablesBeautyApparelTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingTradingupdownupdownupdownupdownOverall35.7%55.7%Overall8.4%60.2%Overall40.6%27.5%Overall21.3%38.6%Low income22.1%82.9%Low income5.2%85.8%Low income28.2%38.4%Low income12.2%51.6%Mid income39.8%56.2%Mid income6.6%62.1%Mid income40.
52、1%26.2%Mid income22.2%40.8%High income44.9%16.3%High income17.3%19.6%High income59.2%15.3%High income31.9%15.0%71.276.986.319.432.649.44.210.217.9200720122022LowincomeMiddleincomeHighincome80.276.169.793.490.791.288.284.381.1Mid-market retailValueretailersHighend retail19.818.421.238.938.542.670.372
53、.875.6200720012202213U.S.ResearchReinventing the value mealIt used to be that cooking at home was less expensive than dining out,but with inflation running at its highest rate in more than 40 years and food prices particularly susceptible to price spikes,in some instances,that may no long
54、er be the case.According to the U.S.Department of Labor,grocery prices increased over 13%in July compared to a year ago,while restaurants rose only 7%during the same time,leaving behind the largest gap in prices between grocery stores and restaurants in about 50 years.Whether or not the cost of livi
55、ng has affected consumer expenditure,value for money is a high priority for many when considering their next meal.Over a third(34%)of consumers claim dining out options are influenced by restaurants that they perceive as a better value for their money.Similarly,a high proportion of consumers(49%)act
56、ively seek meals that are better in value when dining at home,leaning toward high-quality meals in either scenario.The value meal has taken on new meaning as consumers seek those food service providers that balance a higher food standard with affordability.What influences the decision to%of consumer
57、sSource:GlobalData analysis and consumer panel8%8%26%29%30%33%34%38%42%There areunique/exciting flavorsI can sociaize while eating/drinkingFood/drinks which are difficult to recreatePlant-based and dairy alternativesNone of the aboveIt is more convenientThe taste/quality is betterThere is a greaterv
58、ariety of dishesIt is better value for money5%9%11%16%17%32%33%34%34%42%None of the aboveI enjoy making meal kitsPlant-based alternativesRare food/drinksIt is easier to sociaizeI cook from scratchThe taste or quality Create my own excitingflavorsVariety of dishes/cuisinesIt is more convenientIt is b
59、etter valuedine at homeeat outRetail Report|Spring 202314When consumers dine out instead of cooking at home,they value more bang for their buck.Over a third(36%)of consumers claim that the range of affordable/lower priced items/frequent promotions and discounts influence their restaurant choices.The
60、refore,it is vital for food service providers to frequently introduce price promotion strategies.What determines which restaurant to visit%of consumersSource:GlobalData analysis and consumer panel7%13%14%14%15%16%17%23%24%26%27%29%32%33%36%41%Favorite cuisineAffordable items Ambience/experience Heal
61、thy menu options Ability to eat out locally Locally-sourced produceEaseof parking Hygiene rating Customer serviceSpecial-dietary optionsEnvironmental Ability to book/order online Covid-19 safety measuresDigital payment Loyalty programs None of the above15U.S.ResearchRetail Report|Spring 202316Conclu
62、sionNicole Larson|Manager,National Retail Research The U.S.retail market is dynamic and ever evolving,influenced by many factors that impact consumer spending habits and economic conditions.In the face of ongoing challenges,including supply chain disruptions,rising inflation and labor shortages,reta
63、il continues to be a critical driver of the U.S.economy.The location of a retail development can play a crucial role in attracting foot traffic and encouraging customers to dwell within a shopping corridor,which can ultimately impact its overall success.The retail market is poised to excel in 2023 w
64、ith the introduction of progressive technologies and the emergence of changing consumer behaviors creating opportunities and challenges for retailers.Segmenting psychographics will help businesses better understand their positioning on how-to influence consumer purchasing behaviors,preferences,and n
65、eeds.Overall,the current state of the U.S.retail market remains uncertain but holds promise for retailers who can quickly adapt and innovate to meet their consumer needs.17U.S.ResearchAnjee Solanki National Director,Retail Services&Practice Groups Colliers|U.S.+1 415 288 7871 Nicole Larson Manager,N
66、ational Retail Research Colliers|U.S.+1 954 652 4602 Neil Saunders Managing Director and Retail Analyst GlobalData Retail+1 718 708 1476 Contacts:#ColliersRetail Colliers This document/email has been prepared by Colliers for advertising and general information only.Colliers makes no guarantees,repre
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68、 or implied terms,conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and/or its licensor(s).2023.All rights reserved.This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement.Countries we operate in65Annual revenue$4.5BAssets under management$98BLease/sale transactions51,000Square feet managed2BProfessionals18,000At Colliers,we are enterprisingNumber of countries includes affiliates.