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1、White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040New challenges for achieving long-term earning power and impact for the NetherlandsAuthorsPhilip van KappenThijmen van BreeClaire StolwijkAnastasia YagafarovaTom van der Horst2 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20402 ContentsPreface p.3Towards a National High-Tech
2、 StrategyChapter 1 p.4Dutch high-techChapter 2 p.7 Changing balance of forcesChapter 3 p.10 Success factors and transformationsChapter 4 p.16New value chainsChapter 5 p.20New challangesChapter 6 p.23National High-Tech Strategy3 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20403 Preface Towards a National High-T
3、ech StrategyThe high-tech industry is vital to the Netherlands.The sector drives growth in the economy and is an innovator when it comes to our greatest societal challenges.High-tech is innovative and constantly evolving.Around 2000,the sector focused mainly on consumer electronics,whereas now the e
4、mphasis is on equipment for the semiconductor industry.This transformation of the sector will accelerate in the coming years towards disruptive technologies such as AI,quantum,and photonics.The Dutch high-tech industry is positioning itself in these technologies,which will have an unprecedented impa
5、ct on the global value chains in which they operate.An increasing need for strategic autonomy,the fragmentation of global markets,and transitions to sustainability will further accelerate the transformation.Until around 2030,the Netherlands will be investing heavily in the transformation of the high
6、-tech industry,especially through National Growth Fund programmes such as NXTGEN HIGHTECH,Quantum Delta NL,and PhotonDelta.But how do we ensure that Dutch high-tech continues to generate innovations that define the future,as well as economic growth and high-quality jobs beyond that point?This questi
7、on was the basis for a study conducted by TNO in 2022 and the first half of 2023.We spoke to a wide range of experts,entrepreneurs,and policymakers.This paper stems from that research and presents a new vision of the high-tech industry for 2040.The key insight:in 2040,a successful Dutch high-tech in
8、dustry will generate around 50%of its revenue from newly created value chains.The sector will also have to be 100%sustainable,150%more productive,and significantly more resilient.This presents the sector with challenges that require coordinated efforts from all stakeholders in the innovation and res
9、earch ecosystems.We advocate drafting a National High-Tech Strategy that builds on the KIA Key Enabling Technologies and the National Technology Strategy.A consistent long-term agenda that creates the essential conditions for robust investments.TNO is committed to helping address these challenges fo
10、r the Dutch high-tech sector.We invite high-tech companies,knowledge institutions,and the government to join forces in working towards a future-proof high-tech industry that will also be an example to the world in 2040.This paper aims to be a first step towards that goal.Arnaud de JongManaging Direc
11、tor TNO High Tech Industry4 White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040Chapter 1 Dutch high-techThe high-tech industry is of great importance to the Netherlands.High-tech makes a significant and growing contribution to the Dutch economy,with 784,000 FTEs in 2021,or 10%of total employment in the Netherland
12、s.Gross added value was estimated at 80.2 billion euro in 2021.While the share of the manufacturing industry in the Dutch economy has declined over the past 25 years,the share of the high-tech industry has actually increased.The Dutch high-tech industry is R&D-intensive and characterised by the desi
13、gn and manufacture of complex products produced in small volumes.It often involves complex systems engineering and uses complex partnerships,value chains,and value networks.The high-tech industrys products and services are used as inputs for the manufacturing of semiconductors,medical instruments,an
14、d data communications,among other things.0812Total ManufacturingHigh-tech systems and MaterialsShare in Dutch economy%520215202116.913.812.012.29.59.69.811.0Figure 1.Share of the Dutch economy in terms of gross added value(Source:CBS,TNO calculations).5 White paperHi
15、gh-tech industry in 2040The three main subsectors within Dutch high-tech are:Machinery With companies such as ASML,ASMI,and BESI,the Netherlands is a world leader in the production of machinery used to manufacture chips and semiconductors.Other important activities within the Dutch machinery industr
16、y include making machinery for weighing,lifting,and handling,as well as for food processing and agricultural activities.Electrical appliances The electrical equipment industry produces a wide range of equipment and devices.In the Netherlands,the main activities include the production of lighting equ
17、ipment;electrical household appliances;electric engines,generators,and transformers;electricity distribution and control equipment;and the production of electronic and electrical wires and cables.Companies in the industry include Signify,Philips Domestic Appliances,and Prodrive.Computers,electronics
18、&optics Within the Dutch computer,electronic,and optical industries,the manufacture of instruments and devices for measuring,testing and navigation accounts for the largest share.Other important activities include the production of electronic components,capacitors,resistors,and microprocessors,as we
19、ll as medical and electromedical equipment,and communication equipment.Companies include Philips,NXP,and Thermo Fisher Scientific.Although most high-tech industry subsectors have grown in recent years,it is not the case that all have seen strong productivity growth(Figure 2).The machinery subsector
20、in particular stands out,thanks to a strong rise in gross added value of 7.3%per year on average.At the same time,it showed one of the highest growth rates in labour productivity(4.8%),second only to electrical equipment(5%).6 White paperHigh-tech industry in -28-6-4-5Growth rate of GVA(
21、in%)2013-2021-3-2-10123456MachineryGrowth rate of labour productivity(in%)2013-2021Bubble size:Gross value added(2021)Computer programming,IT consultancyRubber andplasticsComputer,electronicand optical productsBasic metalsElectricalequipmentScientific researchand developmentFabricated metal products
22、Motor vehicles,trailers andsemi-trailersArchitectural and engineering activities;technical testing and analysisRepair and installation ofmachinery and equipmentOther transportequipmentFigure 2.Comparison between growth in gross added value and labour productivity for the subsectors within the high-t
23、ech industry(2015 price level).1.1 TNOTNO supports Dutch high-tech in aspects where it can make the greatest societal and economic impact with applied research.Together with partners,TNO works on innovations that define the future,for example in aerospace,quantum technology,semiconductors,and photon
24、ics.It works to tackle societal challenges and create a strong economy.And a business community that contributes to solving these societal challenges also ensures economic earning power and employment.TNOs ambition is to support the high-tech industry with groundbreaking technological and system inn
25、ovations.7 White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040Chapter 2 Changing balance of forcesInnovation is the most important constant in the Dutch high-tech industry.The high rate of innovation that characterises the sector means that value in the industry is constantly being shifted into new areas.Thirty y
26、ears ago,IBM,then mainly active in computer systems,was the largest technology company worldwide in terms of market capitalisation,whereas 20 years ago,it was the software company Microsoft and 10 years ago,it became Apple,mainly active in consumer electronics.The Dutch high-tech industry has also b
27、een transformed in the last three decades:30 years ago,the broadly diversified Philips was the largest company and now it is the strongly focused ASML.ASMLs market value is 30 times higher than it was 20 years ago,making it currently Europes most valuable technology company.This high rate of innovat
28、ion means that by 2040,the Dutch high-tech industry will look completely different,for which it will largely have to reinvent itself.That innovation will largely come through the adoption of new technologies that we already see climbing the TRL ladder.Disruptive technologies,such as AI,quantum,photo
29、nics,biotech,and autonomous systems,are going to lead to new high-tech devices in a large number of markets.In the semiconductor domain,we are seeing,for example,the integration of optical and electronic chips,new multimodal metrology,and the application of new materials.In digital communications,th
30、ere are technologies in the pipeline relating to quantum internet,integrated photonics for laser satellite communications,and green data centres.In the medical field,there are high expectations for quantum computing for pharmaceutical applications,neurostimulation,3D printing of organs,and personali
31、sed medicine.And on the sustainability front,high-tech is coming in the areas of energy storage and conversion,photoelectrochemical systems,and hydrogen(hydrogen leakage)measurement systems.8 White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040Tech radar not exhaustiveLegend Key enabling technologiesAdvanced mater
32、ialsPhotonics and Optical technologiesQuantum technologiesDigital and Information technologiesChemical technologiesNanotechnologyLife sciences and biotechnologiesEngineering and Fabrication technologiesDigital communication technologiesSemiconductor equipmentMaterials for sustainable processesHigh-t
33、ech systemen andMedical technologiesTRL4+TRL3TRL2TRL11.Hybrid intelligence2.Quantum computing for pharma3.Empathic robots4.Next gen nuclear waste managment5.PIC wafer scale/high throughput metrology tools6.Hybrid integration/new chip architecture7.Co-design electronic and optical chips8.New material
34、s for semicon9.Quantum internet10.Next gen sensor technology11.Green data centers12.Neuro stimulation13.Personalised medicine14.Modular massive parallel reactors15.Solar to fuel16.Photo-electrode materials17.Multi-modal metrology18.Artificial tissue/organoids19.Regenerative medicine20.3D printing of
35、 organs21.Transparant flow reactors22.Integration concepts for PV and electrolysis23.3D stacking24.Neuromorphic computing25.Integrated optics in laser satcom26.Point of care systems27.Hydrogen(leak)measurement28.Photo-electro-chemical systems29.Energy storage and conversion9112
36、204726292224Figure 3.Examples of new technologies relevant to high-tech.9 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20402.1 Opportunities in a changing worldA number of global trends are having a major impact on the high-tech playing field,creating new opportunities for the Dutch high-tech industr
37、y.Our social environment is fundamentally changing with the ongoing ageing of the population,which will bring healthcare challenges and acute labour shortages in a growing number of countries.On the ecological front,we face the essential transition to sustainable systems in relation to energy and ra
38、w materials.As regards the economy,we see global value chains becoming increasingly regional and governments choosing a more initiating and intervening role.Politically,major societal challenges are high on the agenda.Investment in sustainability and health is rising sharply,as is investment in defe
39、nce,due to the rapidly deteriorating security situation.This leads to a series of promising opportunities to create new high-tech value chains for markets that are emerging in high-tech for sustainability,health,digital transformation,and defence.Moreover,the desire to pursue strategic autonomy and
40、far-reaching automation and robotisation offers the chance to build production in Europe or the Netherlands.2.2 Existential threatsThe changing world also means that the high-tech industry has to consider threats that in some cases could be existential.The sustainability transitions will result in i
41、ncreasingly stringent regulations,which could jeopardise the existence of companies unable to keep pace.Competitiveness is also under pressure due to decreasing access to critical materials and a diminishing supply of labour,combined with stagnating labour productivity.Finally,there are significant
42、threats concerning the long-term resilience of the industry.Will the value chains that have been so carefully optimised withstand shocks such as wars,natural disasters,or a shifting political balance?And do our knowledge positions offer sufficient guarantees that we can continue to hold leading posi
43、tions in the high-tech industry in the near and not-so-near future?2.3 Facing the futureThe Dutch high-tech industry has a strong hand with regard to building positions in the area of high-tech for societal challenges.It is a leader in designing,developing,and producing high-tech equipment and compo
44、nents with three key characteristics:highly intelligent(embedded systems,software,sensors),highly precise(nanoelectronics,high-precision manufacturing),and highly efficient(mechatronics).High-tech is also strong in translating knowledge into industrial solutions.There are well-developed ecosystems o
45、f specialised companies and knowledge institutions that have collaboration and knowledge exchange in their DNA.Finally,the Netherlands has a strong knowledge base with regard to key enabling technologies and a favourable business climate.10 White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040Chapter 3 Success fact
46、ors and transformationsThe changing balance of forces poses tough challenges for the Dutch high-tech industry.Four critical success factors are decisive for continuing to be strong,healthy and leading in particular areas in 2040.Each of these success factors requires transformations.3.1 Success fact
47、orsIt is important for the high-tech industry to be capable of continuing to operate within the rules that will apply in the Netherlands and the EU in 20 years time.This right to exist(licence to operate)must be secured,which will require major changes in view of the ever-increasing demands.Examples
48、 are the necessary reduction in carbon emissions and the growing number of restrictions in countries to which high-tech products may be exported.Competitiveness is the second critical success factor.Operating in global and highly competitive markets requires continuous investment in competitiveness
49、and therefore in innovation.An additional challenge here is the growing scarcity of qualified staff.Long-term resilience is a factor that has been on the agenda since Covid-19,the war in Ukraine,and rising tensions with China.It has become clear that companies have optimised their supply chains too
50、much in the direction of low cost,at the expense of resilience to shocks.It also appears that the relevant knowledge and technology positions are under pressure due to unprecedented investments by China and the United States in topical fields such as AI,quantum,and knowledge leakage,for example thro
51、ugh espionage.Finally,achieving innovation and growth is crucial for success.This begins with building on and further developing positions in existing value chains.In addition,it is necessary to keep innovating,in the knowledge that a large part of revenue from high-tech in 2040 will come from value
52、 chains that do not yet exist today.Those value chains will emerge from the convergence of demand arising from societal challenges such as sustainability and health,on the one hand,and the technological innovation that is coming our way in areas such as AI,quantum,and photonics,on the other.Renewal&
53、growthLicense tooperateResilienceCompetitive positionFigure 4.Success factors for Dutch high-tech.11 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20403.2 TransformationsA successful route to 2040 consists primarily of a wide variety of companies,from startups to multinationals,doing what they do best:business.D
54、eveloping new products,setting up efficient production,building partnerships,and all the other activities crucial to a constantly evolving business.But at system level,the level of the high-tech industry as a whole,a number of necessary transformations are emerging that all these companies have to d
55、eal with and in which government and knowledge institutions play an important facilitating role.The word transformation,a fundamental change of state,is used here to indicate that these are changes that parties cannot achieve separately.Eight transformations are needed to set the stage for a success
56、ful future as a high-tech industry.Renewal&growthLicense tooperate1.Zero CO2emissions8.New valuechains4.Smart production5.Resilient value chains2.Circular value chains7.Strengthenedmarket positions3.Connected value chains6.Unique technology positionsResilienceCompetitive positionFigure 5.Transformat
57、ions in Dutch high-tech.12 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20401.Net-zero carbon emissionsThe goal for 2040 is clear:no high-tech company should produce carbon emissions by 2040.This involves a companys own operations,its supply chain(upstream),and the effect of its products at customers locations(
58、downstream).Important levers to achieve this goal are lower energy consumption in production and the switch to green energy.Products at customers locations will also have to become more energy-efficient and facilities will have to be created to recycle discarded products,thus reusing the CO2 investe
59、d.The inhibiting factor here is that national legislation on CO2 is still in development and may create an uneven playing field internationally.Stable government regulations to encourage the shift to net-zero emissions,while ensuring a level playing field,are therefore crucial.Once such regulations
60、are in place,coalitions can emerge that will make the transition to net-zero emissions within the value chain where they operate.Dominant players in the value chain play a key role in driving this development and technological innovations will be needed in the areas of the energy consumption of the
61、product,the production process(e.g.,Industry 4.0),and the recording of CO2 consumption(e.g.,the product passport and digital twins).2.Circular value chainsValue chains managed by Dutch high-tech companies will adopt a circular business model with near-100%resource efficiency by 2040.Re-x processes(e
62、.g.,rethink,repair,remanufacture,recycle)will have become a standard part of the production landscape.Products and processes will be designed and redesigned to minimise material use and maximise reuse.The service life of products will be extended through design,redesign,and new servitised business m
63、odels where the producer has ownership of the product in the use phase.Inhibiting factors here are uncertainty regarding legislation,a lack of remanufacturing and demanufacturing capacity close to the end customer,and a lack of understanding of the reuse potential of products and components when the
64、y are presented for recycling.Moreover,producers face a trade-off between performance and reuse potential.From a business point of view,performance currently still wins out over reuse potential.Here,too,we need stable regulations,coalitions of willing parties,and a product passport(for demanufacturi
65、ng information).In addition,systems engineering of value chains is required to incorporate demanufacturing,remanufacturing,and recycling capabilities.New technological breakthroughs are needed,for example to improve product longevity and recyclability,and enable highly automated and autonomous deman
66、ufacturing processes.13 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20403.Connected value chainsFurther connecting and integrating the players in the Dutch high-tech value chains is crucial to perpetuating and developing competitiveness.We want to move towards a Dutch high-tech industry that operates the best
67、digitally connected and protected production network in Europe by 2040.This will enable a high degree of integration between partners in the value chain,with unprecedented flexibility and efficiency.This integration will be achieved partly through further digitalisation and standardisation,allowing
68、companies to use real-time information in their own order-fulfilment process,as well as that of their suppliers and customers.However,there are several barriers:low digitalisation rates in the factory environment,a lack of digitalisation expertise among SMEs,standardisation that is still being devel
69、oped,and the need to protect proprietary data.Innovation is needed to create international platforms and standards that allow data to be shared securely and efficiently across company boundaries,while parties retain sovereignty over data.Standardisation is also needed in the factory environment a di
70、gital connector(Distributed Technical Intelligence Operating System,or DTI-OS)to enable apps to perform a production or product service operation on top of a standard interface within a production environment.4.Smart productionA labour shortage is already one of the main bottlenecks in the Dutch hig
71、h-tech industry and this problem will become even more acute as the population continues to age.To remain competitive,we therefore need to give new impetus to stagnant productivity through extensive automation and smart production.To achieve this,the Dutch high-tech industry will need to ensure that
72、 it has the most automated and autonomous production capacity in Europe by 2040,enabling single-piece production at the cost price of mass production.Manufacturers will have a Digital Factory,where everything is digitally linked by standardised digital connectors and where a digital twin is availabl
73、e for all products,processes,and equipment.Within this environment,smart applications with decision-making and remote-control functions operate to ensure productivity and efficiency on the shop floor.This will enable production lines to adapt automatically to changing products without human interven
74、tion.Furthermore,production lines will automatically correct themselves in case of quality problems,disruptions,or changing conditions.Accelerating the move to smart production requires a common solution strategy,knowledge base,and definition of building blocks for flexible and autonomous manufactur
75、ing.Policies are also needed to help high-tech SMEs prepare for automated and autonomous manufacturing.Technological development will be needed both in the field of Operational Technology,especially industrial robotics,and Information Technology.Examples of developments include a standardised digita
76、l connector and applications for self-configuration,automatic programming,distributed intelligence and generative algorithms,recipe-based techniques and production configurators,and autonomous agents and digital twins.14 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20405.Resilient value chainsThe aftermath of C
77、OVID-19 and other disruptions have highlighted the need for the high-tech industry to find a new balance between resilience and efficiency in supply chains.Maintaining access to scarce resources has emerged as an additional factor.This means a movement towards shorter supply chains,diversification o
78、f suppliers,running multiple production sites,such as local production on each continent,and building more surplus into the chain.In addition,greater flexibility will be built into the chain through further digitalisation.The associated costs will increasingly be seen as the costs of doing business
79、rather than inefficiency.This shift will not come naturally to individual companies.There are also arguments against bringing production back home,for example,due to the strained labour market in both the Netherlands and other key parts of Europe.Moreover,companies often focus strongly on labour cos
80、ts,without considering other relevant factors(uncertainty,risk of IP theft).The situation described above requires public policy in the Netherlands and Europe.This policy should result in the high-tech industry achieving strategic autonomy based on a thorough understanding of its own vulnerabilities
81、.Technologically,there is a need for flexible and automated supply chain processes and solutions to reduce dependence on critical and scarce raw materials.The high-tech sector will therefore have to focus on more efficient production,recycling,and substitution by less scarce raw materials.6.Unique t
82、echnology positionsDutch high-tech builds on leading technology positions,parts of which are under pressure from huge investments by large countries such as the United States and China,and knowledge leakage(e.g.,through espionage,students,or knowledge workers).A successful high-tech industry in 2040
83、 will largely be built on the unique knowledge positions for new technologies that will be developed in the Netherlands in the coming years and in which the country will therefore have to continue investing.The EU Chips Act is beginning to bring more strength and coherence to the high-tech-focused i
84、nnovation programme at European level,although we will have to see how this develops as the Act is elaborated and implemented.In addition,there are bottlenecks with regard to the inflow of technological talent,partly due to the continuing sub-optimal image of technical studies and jobs,as well as en
85、try barriers for international technical graduates,which include a shortage of housing.Building unique technology positions for high-tech requires an integrated(EU and NL),long-term,high-tech-oriented technology strategy,pursuing the aim of strategic autonomy(required technology,industry,capacity po
86、sitions).To this end,we need to carry out groundbreaking fundamental and applied research in high-tech key enabling technologies:advanced materials,photonics and optical technologies,quantum technologies,digital and information technologies,chemical technologies,nanotechnology,life sciences and biot
87、echnologies,and engineering and manufacturing technologies.And this requires policies,so that there will be enough knowledge workers in the Netherlands in science,technology,design,and applied mathematics.15 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20407.Strengthened market positionsThe current strong marke
88、t positions are the basis for our earning power in 2040.We must therefore defend these positions and,where possible,build on them.This calls for new technology,in order to further develop existing positions in semiconductors(e.g.,metrology,pick-and-place,heterogeneous integration,advanced packaging,
89、production for ngstrm Era,and domain-specific chips),electronic instruments and devices(e.g.,Systems Engineering and Cyberphysical),equipment for weighing,lifting,and handling(e.g.,AI and soft robotics),and equipment for agriculture&food processing(e.g.,AI,robotics,and sensors),among others.8.New va
90、lue chainsOur existing strong market positions also ensure that the mass and innovative strength are in place,so that we can diversify into new value chains.A significant part of Dutch high-tech revenue in 2040 will have to come from new value chains that do not yet exist on a large scale in 2023.By
91、 then,Dutch high-tech companies will have strengthened their market positions by further developing their products,innovating their business models,entering adjacent market segments,and improving their R&D success rate.Since these companies are part of a relatively highly integrated local value chai
92、n,it is important that the whole chain can join in this development.In this context,the relatively low R&D intensity of SMEs is a concern and this calls for targeted support to improve the success rate of innovation.16 White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040Chapter 4 New value chainsThe transformation
93、s for the high-tech industry described above are often clearly connected to the immediate interests of the individual players.The last transformation building new value chains requires additional impetus for system innovation and public-private partnerships.This often involves new markets and new te
94、chnologies that are currently not on the radar of existing players.The most important new value chains in which the Dutch high-tech industry can achieve sustainable earning power and societal impact are:A.High-tech for a healthy societyB.High-tech for sustainable processesC.High-tech for transformat
95、ional digital technologiesD.High-tech for defence and security4.1 High-tech for a healthy societyThe progressive ageing of the population is increasing demand for high-tech devices and production equipment that provide solutions to health and care challenges.Solutions in which such equipment will pl
96、ay an important role are:Prevention.Preventing people from becoming ill and ensuring that they live longer and in good health.Diagnosis.Ensuring early detection of diseases.Healthcare.Ensuring that overall healthcare costs are reduced and the burden on healthcare staff is eased.Innovation in the hea
97、lthcare system is extremely difficult for individual players.The implementation of new technologies often founders early on and regulations make innovation in healthcare difficult.In addition,many applications require both standardisation and volume,while healthcare is very personal and therefore no
98、t standardised.This reinforces the need for system-level coordination and regulation:Encouraging a system transition in healthcare.This requires impetus through public-private partnerships with the participation of all the necessary ecosystem partners.Improving regulations to enable innovation in he
99、althcare(e.g.,framework for data sharing).Developing standard digital platforms that suppliers can join.Establishing an open ecosystem that enables healthcare providers and health technology companies to collaborate on building patient pathways that combine various technologies.17 White paperHigh-te
100、ch industry in 2040Technology development will need to focus on potential game changers in healthcare,such as:Being treated in ones own living environment/home monitoring(wearable technologies).Prevention and early diagnosis (lab-on-a-chip).Personalised medicine (organ-on-a-chip).Improved drug produ
101、ction and delivery systems(under the skin,smart 3D-printed pill,electroceuticals).Robotics.Mobility of devices.In-house sensors.4.2 High-tech for sustainable processesThe increased understanding of the environment and climate has resulted in a number of far-reaching transitions being initiated.Ambit
102、ious targets have been set for energy and materials transitions that cannot be met without substantial investment.These transitions are facilitated by high-tech devices and production equipment that enable,for example,sustainable energy production,distribution,and storage.This provides substantial o
103、pportunities to capture positions in the new value chains that are already emerging.For many sustainability technologies,the challenge is to achieve sufficient critical mass.Momentum and the most important market players(e.g.,system integrators for electrolysers)often have to be sought abroad.A comp
104、licating factor in achieving mass is that there are frequently multiple competing technologies.At the same time,there is tension between gaining momentum and building a position in the Netherlands.Established companies have an interest in not adopting new technology too quickly,while founding startu
105、ps carries the risk of being taken over by foreign players.Needs at system level National(NXTGEN)development programmes with top-down coordination to gain control points in the new value chains Partnerships with key EU countries to connect Dutch high-tech to their value chains for sustainable high-t
106、ech(e.g.,batteries in Germany)Promising priority areas in technology development Technology for the energy transition:Next-generation rechargeable batteries and thermal batteries Electrolysers Reactors(plasma,small core)Devices for smart grids(e.g.,smart sensor and monitoring devices,next-gen power
107、electronics)Technology for the transition to a circular economy:Equipment for solar-powered chemical processes (Sunlight-to-chemicals).Equipment for power2chemicals.o Sustainable devices(batteries,electronics,electrolysers)with high recyclability and related production equipment.Disassembly equipmen
108、t (e.g.,photonic detachment).Technology and processes to produce this equipment on a large scale.18 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20404.3 High-tech for transformational digital technologiesDigitalisation is having a profound effect on society and offers opportunities for creating well-being and p
109、rosperity.It is changing the ways in which people live,work,and learn.A number of disruptive technologies,such as AI,quantum,photonics,and autonomous systems,could transform society even more radically.This offers the high-tech industry new opportunities for devices and production equipment that tak
110、e digital technologies to the next level:More powerful:e.g.,more powerful computer chips,sensors.Faster:e.g.,faster digital communications.Safer:e.g.,more secure digital communications.More sustainable:e.g.,lower energy consumption by data centres.It is not a foregone conclusion that existing Dutch
111、industry or startups will automatically gain control points in the new value chains that will emerge in relation to these new technologies.Developing such technology is capital-intensive.However,there is less investment power in the Netherlands than in a number of large countries and regions.In addi
112、tion,most Dutch OEMs are highly focused and less willing to invest in diversification early on.At the system level,coordination is needed to ensure:Connection with and influence on European initiatives(e.g.,the Chips Act and the Net-Zero Industry Act).Bases(technology,market,experts)for new domains
113、that Dutch companies can then develop further.Pilot environments.In the area of technology development,focus and volume are needed with regard to game changers,such as:Quantum technology(computers,communication,sensing).Optical wireless communications(laser-satellite communications,data centres,LIFI
114、).Integrated photonics.Advanced packaging of chiplets and heterogeneous integration to combine multiple functions in one package,such as sensing,processing,or wireless communications.6G components and systems.Edge computing and neuromorphic technologies.19 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20404.4 Hi
115、gh-tech for defence and securityThe geopolitical developments of recent years make it clear that our security cannot be taken for granted.The war in Ukraine is the most tangible example of this but the underlying trend has been pointing in that direction for some time.The unipolar world order with t
116、he US as the dominant superpower is becoming a multipolar world order.This is putting geopolitical pressure on the traditional multilateral systems(UN,EU,NATO),creating new security threats.Europe and the Netherlands have become more vulnerable and are having to secure their own interests and guard
117、their strategic autonomy.They also increasingly have to be self-reliant with regard to security.Investment in defence is now rising sharply.This is triggering new European business activity,with value chains that will produce high-tech devices and production equipment.These products will play a cruc
118、ial role in meeting defence and security challenges in the second quarter of the 21st century.For the Dutch high-tech industry,this creates opportunities to develop pioneering equipment at the interface of defence and security.Examples are satellites(laser satellite communications,nanosatellites),ne
119、xt-gen sensors(advanced radar,acoustic sensors,sensors for UAV,nanosensors),robots and autonomous systems(for operational and/or logistics applications),integrated information systems(sensor,weapon,command),and weapons(missiles,high-energy weapons).It is essential to think and operate internationall
120、y to gain a good position in this field.There is no level playing field in defence.Much of the defence industry is driven by national interests and the Dutch armed forces are small.In addition,the Netherlands does not have any major relevant OEMs,apart from Thales,Airbus D&S,and Damen.It is therefor
121、e necessary to take part in European programmes or join forces with major European players.At the system level,coordination is needed to ensure:Maximum alignment with European defence plans,organisations,and funds(EDF,PESCO,EDA)that help open up the European defence market.Beachheads(technology,mark
122、et,experts)for new fields(see laser satellite communications)that Dutch companies can develop further,especially in the area of dual-use technology.The Dutch armed forces as investor and launching customer for key enabling technologies.Promising technological developments include:AI.Quantum technolo
123、gy.Sensors(incl.quantum and nano sensors).Human-system integration.Aerospace and satellites.3D printing and new materials.Simulation and virtualisation.Human enhancement.Robotics and autonomous systems.Semiconductors suitable for defence applications(trusted,quality).20 White paperHigh-tech industry
124、 in 2040Chapter 5 New challengesThe Dutch high-tech industry creates significant wealth in the Netherlands.To continue delivering this value to society in 2040,the industry will have to:renew itself by generating 50%of revenue from new value chains in equipment for meeting societal challenges.secure
125、 its licence to operate by transforming to a 100%sustainable business through net-zero emissions and a circular model.secure its competitive position by becoming 150%more productive with the help of digitalisation,automation,and further chain integration.achieve maximum resilience and perseverance t
126、hrough robust supply chains and unique technology positions.21 White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040“The high-tech industry in 2040:50%of revenue from new value chains,100%sustainable,150%more productive and highly resilient.”This leads to new challenges for the high-tech industry in three areas:a s
127、ystem task,a valorisation task,and an R&D task:1.System challenge.Provide the basic conditions for the 8 transformations.2.Valorisation challenge.Accelerate the translation of new application areas into new activity.3.R&D-challenge.Achieve technology breakthroughs to drive the 8 transformations.5.1
128、System challengeAt system level,the basic conditions must be created to successfully shape the eight transformations.Policy and regulationsWe need measures to give direction,promote consistency,and ensure the basic conditions are met.For example,a stable long-term strategy for the high-tech industry
129、 is required,which is translated into effective policy.There has to be structural,consistent,and long-term investment in innovation.A key challenge here is to turn the very positive momentum created with the establishment of the National Growth Fund into a structural tool.Additional policies are als
130、o needed to boost the availability of talent and create infrastructure.With regard to regulations,such as the licence to operate,there should be a constant focus on achieving a level playing field for the Dutch high-tech industry.TalentThe high-tech industry must have sufficient well-trained talent
131、available.This means that targeted study programmes are needed,especially in the technical field.It is also important to attract international talent where national recruitment is not sufficient.MobilisationFor players in the high-tech industry,there is a shared interest in doing what is required th
132、roughout the value chain.Initially,we need coalitions of the willing to initiate the necessary transformations and thus secure the licence to operate.Value chains also have to be redesigned on the basis of systems thinking to make them more future-proof.Multiple transformations require the introduct
133、ion of standards,such as a product passport and standardised digital connectors in the factory.Finally,the high-tech industry will have to develop a human capital agenda in which recruitment will be much more skills-based than education-based.22 White paperHigh-tech industry in 20405.2 Valorisation
134、challengeA valorisation agenda encompasses the activities that help convert new application areas into new business activity.Public-private applied research programmes with sufficient focus and mass should ensure that the high-tech industry is put to work to help solve societal challenges.These are
135、programmes focused on High-tech for x(Health,Sustainable,Digital,Defence)that develop new applications,from initial design through to demonstrators and pilot lines.In addition,programmes are needed to ensure that the knowledge,products,and market positions developed have the best possible chance of
136、success and take root in the Netherlands:Smart Industry:developing building blocks and rolling out solutions to produce equipment at industrial scale and competitive costs.Startup and scale-up programmes:driving startup activity and successful upscaling.International collaboration programmes:establi
137、shing high-tech collaboration programmes with regions that have momentum.5.3 R&D challengeWe need an R&D agenda to achieve those technology breakthroughs that will ensure the high-tech industry stays in the lead over the next 20 years.Unique technology positions will need to be achieved in the follo
138、wing key enabling technologies:Advanced Materials(Optical,electronic,magnetic,and nanomaterials;Thin films;Energy materials).Photonics and Optical Technologies(Optical systems&integrated photonics;Photonic/optical detection and processing;Photon generation techniques).Quantum Technologies(quantum co
139、mputing;quantum communication;quantum sensing).Digital and Information Technologies(AI;Digital connectivity;Digital twinning).Chemical Technologies(catalysis;Electricity-driven chemical reaction techniques).Nanotechnology(Nanomanufacturing incl.metrology,thermal management,contamination control;Nano
140、materials;Functional devices and structures;Micro-&nanofluidics).Engineering and Fabrication Technologies(Sensor and actuator technologies;Imaging technologies;mechatronics and optomechatronics;Additive manufacturing;Digital manufacturing technologies;Robotics;Microelectronics;Systems engineering).T
141、his list could provide more focus and identify which technologies require additional impetus.23 White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040Chapter 6 National High-Tech StrategyThe continuous transformation of the Dutch high-tech industry is a necessary process that affects all high-tech companies and in w
142、hich individual interests largely coincide.TNO therefore advocates two mutually reinforcing actions:1.Formulate a National High-Tech StrategyA national strategy is needed to facilitate the high-tech industry in tackling the new challenges,building on the National Technology Strategy and the KIA Key
143、Enabling Technologies,among others.This includes a role for companies,knowledge institutions,and government.2.Create a structural funding instrumentThe positive impetus of the National Growth Fund should be turned into a long-term strategic innovation policy.In terms of design,this could build on th
144、e successful form of joint programming that has now been established in the Dutch high-tech ecosystem with the National Growth Fund.TNO is committed to helping address these challenges for the Dutch high-tech sector.It has the competences in-house to play a decisive role in key areas,for example in
145、the development of new technologies,applications,and business activity for the four major new value chains.TNO also has a role in coordinating system innovation.We invite high-tech companies,knowledge institutions,and government to join forces in working towards a future-proof high-tech industry tha
146、t will continue to be an example to the world in 2040 and offer jobs and a future to many people living in the Netherlands.White paperHigh-tech industry in 2040AuthorsPhilip van KappenThijmen van BreeClaire StolwijkAnastasia YagafarovaTom van der HorstContactPhilip van KappenStrategy ManagerTNO Strategyphilip.vankappentno.nl+31 88 866 50 00tno.nl/en