《沙利文咨询:2023中国成人学习市场研究报告(英文版)(34页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《沙利文咨询:2023中国成人学习市场研究报告(英文版)(34页).pdf(74页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、MARITIMEFORECASTTO 2050A deep dive into shippings decarbonization journeyEnergy Transition Outlook 2023FOREWORDShippings decarbonization is underway slowly like a supertanker coming about.That is clear from our latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 showing promising rising orders for new ships able to ru
2、n on lower-carbon fuel options,but very few operating vessels doing so.At MEPC 80,governments acknowledged this,leading to the IMOs revised greenhouse gas strategy driving accelerated net-zero ambitions.Moreover,ship emissions will be priced through the EU Emissions Trading System from 2024.The cloc
3、k is ticking louder on efforts to identify,define,and resolve barriers to successful and safe decarbonization.Complex and costly decisions form the backdrop for ship designs,propulsion systems,and fuel sourcing.The best strategy will hinge on many parameters,such as vessel size and trading pattern.Y
4、et prag-matism and a defined pathway for the vessels life will be key to avoid unattractive or stranded assets.To support investment decisions,Maritime Forecast to 2050,produced from broad industry sources and DNV modelling,focuses both on challenges and possible actions.The report predicts that mee
5、ting the IMO GHG goal for 2030 will require shipping to secure 3040%of the estimated annual global supply of carbon-neutral fuels by then a daunting,nearly impossible task considering that other sectors will compete for the same fuel supply.Thus,whatever can be achieved to reduce energy consumption
6、is a no-brainer.Operational energy-efficiency measures like speed reduction,route optimization,and hull and propeller cleaning should be implemented wherever possible.Smart and digital systems on individual vessels and fleets offer high rewards through operational efficiencies.Innovative air lubrica
7、tion systems and wind-assisted propulsion can boost efficiency and reduce fuel consumption.Maritime Forecast to 2050 reviews their status and quantifies reported and potential benefits.There is also an urgent need for low-emission technologies for environmental benefits and as alternatives to carbon
8、-neutral fuels that looks likely to become costly and hard-to-source.Accordingly,Maritime Forecast to 2050 runs the numbers on carbon capture and nuclear propulsion technology versus existing and future marine fuels.Under some conditions,both onboard carbon capture and nuclear look feasible operatio
9、nally and could compete with other decarbonization fuel strategies.There are caveats there is a long road to travel before nuclear can be scaled,and a long logistics chain still needs to be developed for onboard carbon capture but we should still evaluate these and other technologies to explore alte
10、rnative pathways.An expected shortfall in carbon-neutral fuels drives us to widen our scope and explore all available fuel options.So,Maritime Forecast to 2050 presents a detailed analysis of liquefied hydrogen,an energy source which could become a viable option.Regulatory change,and stake-holder an
11、d public pressure to decarbonize,will impact commercial boundary conditions.It thus makes business sense to ensure sound long-term CAPEX decisions and prevent assets from becoming unprofitable.Flexibility is key.Everything should be considered fuels,digital tools,fleet deployment and optimization in
12、 seeking individually tailored strategies for collective industry gain.Collaboration is needed to ensure that future fuel supply,infrastructure,and investment decisions are appropriate.Decarbonization of shipping will come with significant costs,costs that cannot be absorbed by single stakeholders,b
13、eing shipowners or governments.New contractual arrangements will likely be needed in order to have the additional costs allocated through the value chain and eventually reaching the end consumer.Maritime Forecast to 2050 details how green shipping corridors can speed up change by piloting on a small
14、er,manageable scale.Successful green corridors may inspire global actions.Together,we can make this decade decisive for maritime decarbonization.This is a critical decade for setting our industry decisively on course for net zero.The UN Secretary-Generals warning that we are entering an era of globa
15、l boiling should ring an alarm bell also on the bridge.Knut rbeck-NilssenCEO Maritime DNV2DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOL
16、OGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSFOREWORD3CONTENTS Foreword 21 Executive summary 42 Introduction 83 Outlook on drivers and regulations for decarbonization 103.1 Regulatory developments 123.1.1 International Maritime Organization 123.1.2 European Union 143.1.3 United States 163.1.4 China 173.2
17、Well-to-wake GHG emissions and sustainability of fuels 183.3 Net-zero emission shipping services 204 Outlook on ship technologies and fuels 224.1 Status of fuel technology transition 244.2 Outlook for the availability of fuel competence and readiness of safe operational practices 264.3 Ship technolo
18、gies and fuels for decarbonization 294.3.1 Solid oxide fuel cell 294.3.2 Liquefied hydrogen 304.3.3 Wind-assisted propulsion systems 314.3.4 Air lubrication systems 334.3.5 Onboard carbon capture and storage 344.3.6 Nuclear propulsion 365 Outlook on alternative fuel production and demand 385.1 Exist
19、ing fuel-supply chain 395.2 Demand for carbon-neutral fuels in shipping 405.3 Supply of carbon-neutral fuels 415.4 Outlook on infrastructure for carbon-neutral fuels 436 A lifecycle perspective on shipping emissions taking into account fuel production 446.1 Addressing GHG emissions from fuel product
20、ion 456.2 Projection of well-to-wake emissions to 2050 467 Techno-economic evaluation of onboard carbon capture and nuclear propulsion 487.1 Case study 15,000 TEU container vessel 507.2 Onboard carbon capture 527.3 Nuclear propulsion 548 Green shipping corridors for accelerating the uptake of carbon
21、-neutral fuels 568.1 What is a green shipping corridor?578.2 DNVs stepwise approach assists stakeholders starting out on green shipping corridors 60Appendix 65A.1 Fuel production standards 65A.2 Well-to-wake emission factors 66A.3 Biofuels 67A.3.1 Potential biofuel supply 67A.3.2 Practical considera
22、tions of biofuel use 67References 70Endnotes 71!Click on the section you want to explore EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP
23、 TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORS4EXECUTIVE SUMMARYMaritime Forecast to 2050 is one out of DNVs suite of Energy Transition Outlook reports.This latest edition provides an independent outlook of shippings energy future.It also examines how the industry will be impacted by:new Internatio
24、nal Maritime Organization(IMO)ambitions for reducing greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from shipping;the regulations that will be developed as a follow-up;and by recently adopted EU regulations.The impact will be increased costs for individual shipowners from technology,carbon-neutral fuels,and/or carbon
25、 price.Commercial drivers will also be important,as GHG performance will affect commercial attractiveness and long-term profit-ability.This will have a large effect on shipowner decarbonization plans and fuel strategies.The most important steps towards zero-emission shipping should be taken now in w
26、hat will be a decisive decade for shipping.What we didWe present an updated outlook on a range of regu-lations and drivers for decarbonization of shipping;the most important being the new IMO ambitions,the EUs Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS)carbon price,and coming well-to-wake regulations.The revised
27、IMO GHG strategy now aims for reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.The EU ETS will for the first time in international shipping set a price on ship GHG emissions,a development that could be adopted in other regions or even globally by the IMO.Coming well-to-wake regulations will impose requiremen
28、ts on fuel production.We calculate the total GHG emissions from shipping towards 2050 in a decarbonization scenario,which shows that without well-to-wake regulations and fuel production standards,the emissions will be trans-ferred to other sectors.A fuel technology transition is already underway in
29、the maritime industry,with half the ordered tonnage capable of using LNG,LPG,or methanol in dual-fuel engines,compared to one third of the tonnage on order last year.For ships in operation,6.52%of tonnage can now operate on alternative fuels,compared to 5.5%last year.The uptake of methanol and LPG i
30、s starting to show in the statistics together with the first hydrogen-fuelled newbuilds.Though several demonstration projects for ammonia-fuelled ships are ongoing,there are no ammonia-fuelled ships in the official order book.While the fuel technology transition gathers pace,the search for solutions
31、 continues.We know that A fuel technology transition is already underway in the maritime industry,with half the ordered tonnage capable of using LNG,LPG,or methanol in dual-fuel engines,compared to one third of the tonnage on order last year.technology to reduce both energy consumption and the need
32、for expensive fuel will be important.Given the need to understand and have a clear view of all the options,we present an outlook on six selected technologies that are receiving increased attention in the industry:solid oxide fuel cells,liquefied hydrogen,wind-assisted propulsion,air lubrication syst
33、ems,onboard carbon capture,and nuclear propulsion.With the industry seeing ener-gy-saving technologies as increasingly important,wind-assisted propulsion systems have now been installed on 28 large vessels.Air lubrication systems are installed on or ordered for more than 250 vessels in total.Conside
34、ring onboard carbon capture and nuclear propulsion,we have performed a feasibility study using the FuelPath model of a 15,000 TEU container vessel as a case,benchmarking against fuel oil,LNG,methanol and ammonia.We find that onboard FIGURE 1-1Alternative fuel uptake in the world fleet by gross tonna
35、ge93.5%conventionalfuelSHIPS IN OPERATION48.7%conventionalfuelSHIPS ON ORDER6.52%Total51.3%Total5.96%LNG0.26%Battery/Hybrid0.25%LPG0.05%Methanol40.3%LNG0.80%Battery/Hybrid2.24%LPG8.01%MethanolWorldfleetOrderbookSources:IHSMarkit()and DNVs Alternative Fuels Insights for the shipping industry AFI plat
36、form()5DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYcarbon capture can be operationally
37、feasible for a large container vessel using 4,000 cubic metres(m)of carbon dioxide(CO2)storage on board,offloading CO2 twice per trip Asia-Europe,and annually capturing 70%of the carbon dioxide.If the increase in energy use to capture the CO2 can be kept below 15%,and if the cost for offloading,tran
38、sporting,and sequestering the CO2 is below 40 USD/tonne,onboard carbon capture can be a competitive option for decarbonization.There are 160,mostly naval,nuclear-powered vessels today,and we find that it is a technically feasible solution for the case-study ship,with a reactor and gensets for redund
39、ancy and take-me-home func-tionality.We find that nuclear propulsion can be a competitive option if reactor costs are in the lower range of historical costs for land-based nuclear power plants.While energy saving will reduce the need for alter-native fuels,and both nuclear and onboard carbon capture
40、 may alleviate the need for such fuels,we still see that large volumes of carbon-neutral fuels will be needed to decarbonize shipping,and that the production of these fuels will be a key challenge.Currently,only 0.1%of fuels used by merchant shipping are biofuels,while 99.9%are fossil fuels.We prese
41、nt a new and comprehensive global database of more than 2,200 existing and planned production plants for relevant fuels:all biofuels,methanol,ammonia,hydrogen,including bio-,electro-,and blue versions of all fuels.We find that the probability-adjusted global cross-sector production volume in 2030 is
42、 between 44 and 62 million tonnes of oil equivalent(Mtoe).The estimated demand for carbon-neutral fuel in shipping is 17 Mtoe in 2030,meaning that 30%to 40%of our estimated global cross-sector production volume will be required to supply the shipping sector.As the shipping industry will compete for
43、carbon-neutral fuels with aviation and road transportation,as well as other industries,the production of carbon-neutral fuel alternatives needs to significantly accel-erate if the emission-reduction goals are to be met.The period of ramping up production of different carbon-neutral fuels may come wi
44、th uncertainty in supply,and price fluctuations are therefore expected.Thus,fuel flexibility will be key for ship-owners to navigate these uncharted waters.65605550454035302520440420400380360340320300Units:Million US dollars(MUSD)Units:MUSDCCS lowCCS high Fuel oil LNG Methanol Ammonia2030
45、203520452050204020552060152341=maximum,2=75th percentile,3=median,4=25th percentile,5=minimumNet present value,8%discount rate65605550454035302520440420400380360340320300Units:Million US dollars(MUSD)Units:MUSDNuclear highNuclear low Fuel oil LNG Methanol Ammonia20302035204520502040205520
46、60152341=maximum,2=75th percentile,3=median,4=25th percentile,5=minimumNet present value,8%discount rateFIGURE 1-2Annual cost range of onboard carbon capture and storage Low and High scenariosFIGURE 1-3Annual cost range of nuclear Low and High scenarios6DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSFOREWORDF
47、UEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYIn addition to the lack of supply of carbon-neutral fuels,there are other important barri
48、ers to decar-bonizing shipping.Examples include lack of infra-structure,novel safety risks,lack of competence,immature technology and high costs.This report presents an outlook on green shipping corridors.These can accelerate uptake of carbon-neutral fuels by allowing barriers to be identified and o
49、vercome in a more targeted and practicable way than on a global scale.We provide a three-step approach for stakeholders within the value chain aiming to establish green shipping corridors.It is based on DNVs experience over a decade with already existing green shipping corridors in Norway.At the app
50、roachs core is identifying barriers to achieving viable business cases for green shipping corridor partners.A shipowner navigating these uncharted waters should consider all available decarbonization options,focusing on reduced energy consumption and fuel flexibility in the short term,while also con
51、sidering a long-term fuel sourcing strategy.The 2020s is a decisive decade for shipping and the quality and effectiveness of plans put in place now will dictate how successful the maritime industry is in reaching its decarbonization goals over the coming decades.706050403020100 202420252026202720282
52、0292030Units:Million tonnes of oil equivalent(Mtoe)Ship-pings share of global energy use,280 MtoeOther indus-tries97%3%Estimated demand from shipping for carbon-neutral fuelsEstimated supply of carbon-neutral fuels to all sectorsHighLowFIGURE 1-4Estimated supply of carbon-neutral fuelFIGURE 1-5Main
53、phases from initial idea to realization of a green shipping corridorOur three-step approachEstimatedtimeVessel(s)in operationContracts signedAction plan for closing the gapsFinal corridor conceptPhases12 years13 years23 yearsGreen ammonia-powered bulk carrierPilot initiated by the Green Shipping Pro
54、gramme,and led by the Grieg Group,investigates ammonia as fuel on their L-class Open-hatch bulk ship operating deep-sea.The pilot study is finalized,and several gaps hindering realization have been identified.These need to be closed before contracts can be signed.ASKO MARITIMEs zero-emission autonom
55、ous cargo ferriesTwo fully-electric cargo ferries operating between Moss and Horten in the Oslofjord in Norway carrying groceries for NorgesGruppen.Initially,the ships will sail with a limited crew,with the goal that these vessels in the future will be operated completely autonomously,and monitoring
56、 provid-ed from shore in Horten.This project was initially a pilot project in the Green Shipping Programme.Shipowner Egil Ulvans With Orca Aims to be the first zero-emission self-discharging hydrogen-fuelled bulk carrier,planned to enter a long-term transport contract with cargo owners Felleskjpet A
57、gri and Heidelberg Cement.This project started as a pilot study facilitated by the Green Shipping Programme.FeasibilityDevelopmentExecution7DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERS
58、PECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION2DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMIS
59、SIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORS8INTRODUCTIONThe pressure to decarbonize is rising as people and governments increasingly acknowledge the chal-lenges from anthropogenic climate change.This year,for example,the IMO has increased its ambi-tions for reducing GHG emissions from s
60、hipping.Next year,the EU will implement a carbon price for shipping.New technologies and fuel production need to be developed for shipping to meet its decarbonization goals.In addition,standards for fuel production and well-to-wake emissions are required to avoid shifting emissions to other sectors.
61、With this in mind,this report starts by presenting an updated outlook on drivers and regulations,focusing on the new IMO ambitions and well-to-wake GHG emissions(Chapter 3).It proceeds with updated outlooks on ship technologies and fuels for decarbonization;the availability of compe-tence(Chapter 4)
62、;and on fuel production and infrastructure,estimating the future availability of carbon-neutral fuels(Chapter 5).We present calcu-lations illustrating the necessity of forthcoming well-to-wake GHG regulations and fuel production standards(Chapter 6).We also describe a case study of a large container
63、 vessel using two selected technologies,nuclear propulsion and onboard carbon capture(Chapter 7).Finally,we present a practical approach for establishing green shipping corridors(Chapter 8).2 INTRODUCTIONThis publication is part of DNVs 2023 suite of Energy Transition Outlook(ETO)reports.This latest
64、 Maritime Forecast to 2050 provides an independent outlook of shippings energy future and examines how the technology and energy transition will affect the industry.We investigate fuel production,technology,and green shipping corridors to tackle the shift to carbon-neutral fuels.We also provide a va
65、luable mapping of present and planned production of carbon-neutral1 fuels.DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN
66、 SHIPPING CORRIDORS9INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK ON DRIVERS AND REGULATIONS FOR DECARBONIZATIONHighlightsWe analyse new IMO and EU regulatory changes as well as US and Chinese policies that may impact maritime globally,finding that:2023 has seen significant regulatory developments by the IMO,with the goal o
67、f reaching net zero by 2050,and by the EU,with new legislation.Policies in the US and China may impact the maritime sector globally.Well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions and fuel sustainability credentials become important to avoid unintended emission increases in other sectors.Some shipping compani
68、es now offer net-zero emission services in response to cargo owners needing to decarbonize their operations.A book-and-claim system could speed uptake of carbon-neutral fuels,enlarging the market by allowing those with no access to physical fuel products to buy reduction claims.310DNV Maritime Forec
69、ast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSWe expect three key fundamentals regulations and policies,acc
70、ess to investors and capital,and cargo-owner and consumer expectations to drive ship decarbonization through the 2020s and beyond(Figure 3-1).They are supported by frameworks and standards specifying sustainability evaluation criteria and targets,GHG emission calculation methods,and reporting requir
71、ements.Regulations and policies remain the key drivers for decarbonization of shipping through direct require-ments for ships and shipping companies.The last year has seen the inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS and a well-to-wake GHG requirement(FuelEU Maritime).Net-zero emission shipping services
72、are being offered as a response to cargo owners requirements to decarbonize their own operations,creating a market pull for sustainable biofuels.Well-to-wake fuel standards are maturing,setting the necessary framework for producing and using sustainable fuels in shipping.This chapter first presents
73、upcoming regulations on GHGs from the IMO and the EU,then discusses shipping-relevant policies in the US and China,repre-senting two major global economies.Other interna-tional agreements will also contribute to drive devel-opments,among them the Clydebank Declaration for green shipping corridors(se
74、e Chapter 8),but are not discussed further in this chapter.We then take a closer look at the framework and standards for calcu-lating well-to-wake GHG emissions,before outlining how shipping companies offer net-zero emission services and the need for book-and-claim systems.2023 has seen major decisi
75、ons regarding GHG ambitions and regulations.The IMO has revised its GHG Strategy,strengthening the ambitions for international shipping.The new targets include a 20%reduction in emissions by 2030,a 70%reduction by 2040(compared with 2008 levels),and the ultimate goal of achieving net-zero emissions
76、by 2050.New regu-lations are expected to enter into force around mid-2027.The EU has agreed to include shipping in its Emission Trading Scheme(EU ETS)from 2024 and on setting requirements on well-to-wake GHG emissions(FuelEU Maritime)from 2025.Regulations and policiesAccessto investors and capitalEx
77、pectations of cargo owners and consumersSupporting frameworks and standardsFIGURE 3-1Three key fundamentals are driving ship decarbonization,supported by frame-works and standards specifying sustain-ability evaluation criteria and targets,GHG emission calculation methods,and reporting requirements11
78、DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSIn July 2023,the IMO completed the first re
79、vision of its GHG strategy.2 It significantly strengthened the ambitions for international shipping compared with the initial strategys ambition for a 50%GHG reduction by 2050.The revised strategy outlined in Figure 3-2 and taking 2008 as a baseline now aims to reduce well-to-wake GHG emissions by 2
80、0%in 2030,while striving for 30%;then for 70%by 2040,while striving for 80%;and to reach net-zero by or around,i.e.close to,2050.There is also a 2030 target to achieve an uptake of zero or near-zero GHG emissions technologies,fuels and/or energy sources,representing at least 5%of the energy used by
81、international shipping,while striving for 10%.The GHG strategy now also addresses lifecycle GHG emissions from shipping,with the overall objective of reducing GHG emissions within the boundaries of the energy system of international 3.1 Regulatory developments3.1.1 International Maritime Organizatio
82、n20082020203020402050Units:GHG emissions2008 as base yearPeak as soon as possibleTotal:20%reductionIntensity:40%reductionFuel:5%energy shareTotal:70%reductionNet-zero GHG emissions by 2050Emission pathway in line with IMOs revised GHG strategyEmission pathway in line with IMOs 2018 GHG strategyBusin
83、ess-as-usual emissionsEmission gapTotal:Total:Well-to-wake GHG emissions;Well-to-wake GHG emissions;Intensity:Intensity:CO CO2 2 emitted per transport work;emitted per transport work;Fuel:Fuel:Uptake of zero or near-zero GHG technologies,fuels and/or energy sources Uptake of zero or near-zero GHG te
84、chnologies,fuels and/or energy sourcesshipping and preventing a shift of emissions to other sectors.To ensure that shipping reaches these ambitions,the IMO has decided to implement a basket of measures consisting of two parts.First,a tech-nical element which will be a goal-based marine fuel standard
85、 regulating the phased reduction of marine fuel GHG intensity.Second,an economic element which will be some form of maritime GHG emissions pricing mechanism,potentially linked directly to the GHG-intensity mechanism.The development of the measures will continue at the IMO and will,according to the a
86、greed timeline,be adopted in 2025 and enter into force in around mid-2027.The implementation of the Carbon Intensity Indi-cator(CII),Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan(SEEMP)and Energy Efficiency Existing Ship FIGURE 3-2 Outline of ambitions and minimum indicative checkpoints in the revised IMO
87、GHG strategy12DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSIndex(EEXI)is well underway,a
88、nd the last year has seen only minor updates on related guide-lines.Recognizing the significant interest in the use of biofuels,the IMO also agreed that certified sustainable biofuels with at least 65%less well-to-wake GHG emission compared with fossil fuel can use a reduced CO2-emission factor unde
89、r the Data Collection System(DCS)and CII.3 Several challenges with the CII related in particular to ships with long period of waiting,port stay,and stationary operations have been identified,but no further updates to the CII framework will be made at this time.The review of the regulation will be co
90、mpleted by the end of 2025.Onboard carbon capture and storage(CCS)has seen increased interest as a possible solution for decarbonizing shipping.Section 4.3.5 provides a AdoptedregulationsIn the pipeline,or possible regulationsProcessesEnhanced SEEMP and CII RatingEU ETS for shippingFuelEU Maritime G
91、HG fuel standard(well-to-wake)Revised Data Collection System:cargo data,more granular consumption dataIMO carbon priceIMO GHG fuel standard(well-to-wake)Black carbon and VOCFeasibility of including ships 5000 GT)Offshore ships (5000 GT)Offshore and general cargo ships(4005000 GT)Other cargo/passenge
92、r ships(4005000 GT)Greenhouse gasesCarbon dioxide(CO2)Methane(CH4)and nitrous oxide(N2O)Phase-in%of emissions included in EU ETS scopeTo be decidedTo be decidedKey:Methane(CH4);carbon dioxide(CO2);European Union Emissions Trading System(EU ETS);European Union Monitoring,Reporting and Verification(EU
93、 MRV);nitrous oxide(N2O)FIGURE 3-4 Timeline for the phase-in of ship types,sizes and additional GHGs in the EU MRV and EU ETSAlthough it is the shipping company(i.e.the ship manager)that is responsible for acquiring and surrendering emission allowance,all stakeholders through the transport supply ch
94、ain will have to make sure that the costs are covered through contracts between ship managers,owners,char-terers and cargo owners.The EU has also adopted the FuelEU Maritime regulation to increase the share of renewable and low-carbon fuels in the fuel mix of international maritime transport in the
95、EU.9 The regulation sets requirements on annual average well-to-wake GHG emissions per unit of energy used by the ship.The requirements take effect from 2025 and will over time set more stringent limits on the GHG intensity.The reduction requirement is set relative to the average well-to-wake fuel G
96、HG intensity of the fleet in 2020 of 91.16gCO2e per megajoule(MJ),starting at a 2%reduction in 2025,increasing to 6%in 2030,and accelerating from 2035 to reach an 80%reduction by 2050.The regulation also allows for compliance across a group of ships,meaning that one vessel in a pool of ships can ove
97、r-achieve on the well-to-wake GHG intensity,allowing for the other ships to continue to use fossil fuels.It is also possible to bank and borrow compliance units for subsequent periods.From 2030,containerships and 15DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEM
98、ANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSpassenger ships are required to connect to shore power when at berth for more than two hours in a TEN-T port.10 From 2035,the re
99、quirement applies to all ports where shore power is available.The electric energy supplied to the ship from shore is also included for the calculation of the annual GHG intensity but is considered as having zero well-to-wake emissions.The EU ETS includes provisions for the use of CCS,linked to the E
100、Us CCS Directive(2009/31/EC).However,it remains to be seen how this will work specifically for onboard carbon capture in shipping.FuelEU Maritime includes a provision for reviewing onboard carbon capture and other new technologies and fuels by the 1st of January 2027.In March 2023,the EU presented a
101、 proposal for a Net-Zero Industry Act.The aim is to develop and strengthen Europes industrial capacity and to ensure that demand for net-zero technologies and solutions to a larger extent can be met through European production.11 By 2030,the EU aims to both produce 10 million tonnes(Mt)and import 10
102、 Mt per annum of clean hydrogen12,and to reach an annual storage capacity of 50 Mt of carbon dioxide13.A wide range of policy incentives already exists to support research and development(including in shipping)such as the Horizon Europe programme14 and the Innovation Fund15 which is funded by procee
103、dings from auctioning part of the ETS emission allowances.The US has not enshrined a climate target in its national laws,but when re-joining the Paris Agreement in 2021,the country committed to achieve a 50%to 52%reduction in net GHG emissions by 2030.The US State Department and the White House have
104、 issued a long-term strategy16 committing to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050,focusing among other things on investments in renewable energy production and reduced methane emissions,as well as increased natural and technological removal of carbon dioxide.Several US federal agencies have joined i
105、n developing a roadmap for reducing emis-sions from the transport sector,including maritime,which was released in January 2023.17 The roadmap for maritime outlines actions on research and innovation,international and domestic stakeholder engagement and infrastructure investment,and improved design a
106、nd planning.The US is unlikely to impose additional requirements on international ships sailing to US ports or in its waters in the near term.We may see state require-ments,such as in California,which has imposed mandates for increased use of shore power at berth since 2014 for cruise vessels,contai
107、ners,and reefers for major ports,and will extend the mandates to tankers and vehicle carriers in the coming years.18 On the federal level,the US works through the IMO to revise its GHG strategy to aim for phasing out GHG emissions from international shipping to zero no later than 2050.The US has als
108、o initiated several key shipping initi-atives such as the First Movers Coalition19 in 2021 and,together with Norway,the Green Shipping Challenge20 in 2022.As part of the Green Shipping Challenge,the US has committed itself to facilitate green shipping corridors and to create a US National Action Pla
109、n for reducing shipping GHG emissions.The US has several policy initiatives that aim to support renewable energy production,support for manufacturing advanced-technology vehicles,including ships21,and development of maritime infra-structure.The Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)adopted in 2022 is a major
110、policy instrument supporting the long-term strategy,which provides USD 369 billion direct investment aiming to ensure energy security,reduce carbon emissions and increase energy innovation,among other things.22 Tax credits are provided for clean hydrogen production and for carbon capture and utiliza
111、tion or sequestering.The IRA includes a new USD 3 billion rebate and grant programme at the Environmental Protection Agency to provide funding for zero-emission port equipment or technology,along with technical assistance for electrification and emissions-reduction planning and port climate-action p
112、lan development.The US Department of Transportation announced more than USD 703 million to fund 41 projects in 22 states and one territory that will improve port facilities through the Maritime Administrations(MARAD)Port Infra-structure Development Program(PIDP).23 The Infra-structure Investment&Job
113、s Act of 2021 authorizes USD 2.25 billion to MARAD for the PIDP for fiscal years 2022 through 2036.243.1.3 United States 16DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMI
114、SSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSIn September 2020,China announced its intentions to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,referred to as the 3060 goals.This was followed in October 2021 by the Chinese State Council issuing
115、 the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030.25 Regarding the shipping sector,China has committed to work faster to upgrade old ships,develop ships fuelled by electric power and LNG,further promote the use of shore power by ships while in port,and make in-depth efforts to advance demonstr
116、ation and utilization of green,smart ships along coastline and inland waterways according to local conditions.Beginning from the top-level design,Chinas multi-level government agencies are taking actions to implement the carbon peak and carbon-neu-trality action plan in the shipping sector during th
117、e 14th Five-Year Plan period(20212025).Among those agencies,Chinas Ministry of Transport published the 14th Five-Year Plans,one for the Devel-opment of Green Transport26 and another for Waterway Transport27 in Jan 2022.These plans encourage the application of new and clean energy including LNG,metha
118、nol,hydrogen,ammonia,and so on,as well as the increased use of shore power.Besides the action plans,a draft amendment to the Marine Environment Protection Law28 which applies to all sea areas under Chinas jurisdiction to include clauses on reducing GHG emissions in the shipping sector was submitted
119、in December 2022 to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress for review.The draft amendment again encourages the application of new and clean energies in ships and proposes compulsory requirement for shore power usage.The draft amendment also proposes to make it compulsory for coastal
120、-region govern-ments at county level and above to provide financial support and implement preferential policies to enable the upgrading and operation of shore power supply facilities,as well as the building of vessels powered by clean and new energies.Chinas national policy on shipping decarboni-zat
121、ion mainly addresses the green and low-carbon development of domestic shipping.For interna-tional shipping,the government encourages the Chinese shipping industry to promote green trans-formation via active exploration,innovation,and international collaboration.The regulation on Energy Consumption D
122、ata and Carbon Intensity of Ships29,effective from December 2022,requires all ships of 400 GT and above,regardless of flag,entering or leaving Chinese ports to report energy consumption data of their last voyage to the China Maritime Safety Administration(MSA).Regarding market-based measures,Chinas
123、national ETS started operating in 2021 and is presently covering power production only.The planned expansion of the ETS into seven new sectors does not include shipping.However,the national market has been built on the successful experience of the local pilot markets.The Shanghai ETS market has incl
124、uded local shipping companies and ports in its carbon emission allowance management unit list30 since 2021,indicating that the national ETS could be further expanded as well.3.1.4 ChinaFor interna tional shipping,the Chinese government encourages the Chinese shipping industry to promote green trans-
125、formation via active exploration,innovation,and international collaboration.17DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPI
126、NG CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSAchieving significant GHG emission reduction in shipping requires transition to zero or near-zero GHG emissions technologies,fuels and/or energy sources.A key premise in the revised IMO GHG strategy is that this transition should not lead to increased GHG emis-sion
127、s in other sectors.For example,switching from a conventional fossil fuel oil to ammonia would lead to near-zero GHG emissions from the ship(uncertainty remains on N2O emissions);but depending on the production pathway of the ammonia,there can be significant upstream or well-to-tank emissions.For som
128、e high-GHG-intensity fuel production pathways,such as methane reforming without CCS,the total emissions may even be higher than producing and combusting fossil fuels.Biofuels is another possible set of fuels.Although combusting biofuels on a ship releases CO2 emis-sions in the same way as fossil fue
129、ls,the carbon in the CO2 was recently removed from the atmos-phere through the growing or cultivation of the biomass,and the CO2 emissions from combustion can be considered to have a neutral climate impact.However,significant upstream emissions can occur due to direct and indirect land-use change,wh
130、ich is also a sustainability issue,in connection with culti-vation and growth of the biomass(Ricardo,2022a).If using biomass from waste products,these issues can be avoided,though emission for production remains.For this reason,we expect regulations that will take into account the emissions in a wel
131、l-to-wake perspective,starting with the FuelEU Maritime from 2025 and later possibly by the IMOs GHG fuel standard and a carbon pricing scheme.Ship-specific calculation methods for well-to-wake GHG emissions of marine fuels are maturing.The main challenges in establishing such methods are related to
132、 how to account for direct and indirect land-use emission from biofuels;the GHG intensity of electricity used for fuel production;CCS;the use of recycled captured carbon in the fuel;and how to certify the well-to-tank emissions.For FuelEU Maritime,the EU builds on the methods and certification requi
133、rements in the Renewable Energy Directive(RED)31 when detailing the calculation methods,standard factors,and how to use specific certified values.Under FuelEU Maritime,unless a fuel fulfils certain sustainability and GHG-saving criteria according to RED,it is considered as having GHG emissions equal
134、 to the least favourable fossil 3.2 Well-to-wake GHG emissions and sustainability of fuelsA key premise in the revised IMO GHG strategy is that this transition should not lead to increased GHG emis sions in other sectors.18DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION
135、 AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSpathway.To be considered sustainable,a biofuel needs to achieve at least a 50%to 65%GHG emission reduction,while renewab
136、le fuels of non-biological origin(RFNBO)and recycled carbon fuels(RCF)need to achieve a 70%reduction threshold.Until now,the RED has mainly been concerned with biofuels;but in 2023,the EU agreed on a revised RED as well as delegated acts detailing how to account for GHG emissions reductions for RFNB
137、O and RCFs.Requirements have been set out for when hydrogen produced from electricity can be considered zero-emission,and how to account for captured carbon reused in the fuel(e.g.for e-methanol).Initially(to 2036 or 2041,depending on source),captured carbon from a wide range of sources is considere
138、d to be contributing to GHG emission reduction provided the CO2 is subject to effective carbon pricing.In the long term,the only carbon that can be recycled in a fuel will be from sustainable sources.For example,carbon captured from the air or from combustion of sustainable fuels,such as biofuels,RF
139、NBOs,or RCFs.32The IMO,in July 2023,approved guidelines for calculating lifecycle GHG emissions for marine fuels,including sustainability aspects33.These guide-lines do not include any provision for application or requirements but are intended to support the GHG Fuel Standard under development.The I
140、MO guidelines will be kept under review and developed further in the coming years,focusing in particular on default emissions factors,sustainability criteria,and fuel certification.Current emission requirements such as the EEDI/EEXI,CII and the EU ETS which only cover tank-to-wake emissions also nee
141、d to consider how to provide consistent incentives to fuels that contribute to reducing well-to-wake GHG emissions.For example,the EU ETS recognizes that CO2 emissions from biofuels,RFNBOs and RCFs fulfilling the same criteria as described above for FuelEU Maritime can be considered as zero without
142、having to surrender allowances.The IMO in July 2023 decided on a similar provision for the DCS and CII where sustainable biofuels can be assigned a lower CO2 conversion factor.The regulatory focus on lifecycle GHG emissions and sustainable production implies that marine fuels will be subject to prod
143、uction standards certi-fication to verify their origin.Certification schemes already exist for biofuels,such as those from International Sustainability&Carbon Certification(ISCC)34 and the Roundtable on Sustainable Bioma-terials(RSB)35.In addition to their own standards,ISCC and RSB provide certific
144、ation according to the International Civil Aviation Organizations(ICAO)Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation(CORSIA),for aviation fuels;the EUs renewable energy directive(RED II);and Japans mandate for using biofuels.Several initia-tives are underway in different parts of
145、 the world for developing schemes for other types of fuels such as hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels to certify their origin,such as Australias guarantee of origin scheme36,the China Hydrogen Alliance37 and the EUs CertifHy38.Appendix A.1 provides a list of production standards and their emission
146、thresholds.Work is ongoing on adapting the RED certification processes to also work for FuelEU Maritime.It is also expected that the IMOs lifecycle analysis(LCA)guidelines will apply a similar model where certi-fication schemes for marine fuels are recognized according to IMO requirements.These regu
147、la-tions and supporting standards provide calculation methods for well-to-wake emissions which can also be used outside regulatory requirements,such as setting and measuring the progress on net-zero emissions targets,ESG reporting,and GHG Protocol Scope 3 reporting requirements set by cargo owners a
148、nd other companies.In Section 6.2,we project the impact on well-to-wake GHG emissions towards 2050 with and without considering production standards and shipboard requirements,considering a Decarbonization by 2050 pathway.The regulatory focus on lifecycle GHG emissions and sustainable production imp
149、lies that marine fuels will be subject to production standards certi fication to verify their origin.19DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOG
150、IES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSSome cargo owners are setting ambitious targets for decarbonization of their operations,both for direct emissions from own operations(Scope 1 see fact box below)and for their supply chains(Scopes 2 and 3),through net-zero emissions39 target
151、s.For a cargo owner with significant transportation needs,achieving targets for Scope 3 emissions requires access to low-and zero-emission shipping services.Shipping customers are increasingly willing to pay a premium for such services.40 Shipping companies have started responding to this demand.Sev
152、eral of what can generally be termed net-zero emission services are already available in the market from first movers.We expect this growth will accelerate in the coming years to meet demand from cargo owners.41 Currently,net-zero emissions are achieved through the use of certified biofuels,but elec
153、trofuels and blue fuels could also be options when they become available.Net-zero emission services can also be considered a form of carbon insetting.Carbon insetting is a specific variant of carbon offsetting and occurs where a companys climate impact is reduced through actions within the companys
154、supply chain leading to reduction of Scope 3 emissions.Carbon offsetting is disconnected from the activities of the company and its supply chain but can be used to achieve a GHG emission-reduction target.Carbon offsetting has received criticism that it does not lead to actual emission reduction and
155、is a form of greenwashing.42 The benefit of carbon insetting is that it is tangible,and a company can also claim it as part of Scope 3 emission reduction,as opposed to offsetting which can be reported but not as part of any of the scopes.It will not always be possible to physically link the use of a
156、 biofuel,or other carbon-neutral fuels,to a specific service for a specific cargo owner.The fuel may not be available in all places,and transporting it could be costly.The willingness to pay a premium for a zero-emission product may also not be limited to a specific trade and may only cover part of
157、a ships transport work.Instead of transporting and distributing the fuel to specific ships,the emission reduction is calculated based on the total use of biofuel in the companys fleet,and the cargo owner can buy a transport service with a zero-emission claim.To avoid double-counting and greenwashing
158、 accusations,rigid control of claims and verification are needed to ensure the total amount of claims for the zero-emission services sold by a ship company does not exceed the actual reduction from the use of biofuels or other fuels.Figure 3-5 shows a conceptual outline disconnecting the GHG intensi
159、ty for services and the physical assets,which can be done both for the fuel supply and for the transport service.Applying such a book-and-claim system could accel-erate uptake of carbon-neutral fuels as those that do 3.3 Net-zero emission shipping servicesPhysical link between fuel and transport ser
160、vice where the carbon footprint of the cargo is determined by the emissions of the ship transporting the cargo,and the emissions of the ship are determined by the fuel it uses and its energy efficiency.Under FuelEU Maritime,the shipping company can pool compliance using the average GHG intensity per
161、 MJ of fuel.For CII,the rating applies to the individual ship.The shipping company offers a zero-emission service by disconnecting the actual emission performance of the ship from the claimed footprint of the transport service.Part of the cargo can be delivered with zero emission footprint i.e.even
162、lower than the ship using the biofuel but the emission footprint for the remaining cargo increases.Verification is needed to ensure that the total footprint of the shipping company remains the same.The fuel supplier can also disconnect the emissions claim from the physical product it sells.The fossi
163、l fuel can be sold as if it were a biofuel,while the actual biofuel then has to be sold as fossil fuel.Verification and a central register are needed to ensure that the buyer of the actual biofuel,but sold as fossil fuel,does not claim any emission reduction.This approach is currently not supported
164、by regulations such as FuelEU Maritime,EU ETS and CII.Fuel supplier90 gCO2e/MJ900 gCO2eCargo ownerFossil10 gCO2e/MJ100 gCO2e18 gCO2e/t-nmShipping company2 gCO2e/t-nmBiofuelFuel supplier90 gCO2e/MJ0 gCO2eCargo ownerFossil10 gCO2e/MJ1000 gCO2e18 gCO2e/t-nmShipping company2 gCO2e/t-nmBiofuelBook-and-cl
165、aimFuel supplier10 gCO2e/MJ0 gCO2eCargo ownerFossil90 gCO2e/MJ1000 gCO2eBiofuelBook-and-claimBook-and-claim20 gCO2e/t-nmShipping company0 gCO2e/t-nmThe GHG intensity for the fuel under the fuel supplier is the well-to-wake GHG emissions.The ships are assumed to use 0.2 MJ fuel per tonne-mile,and the
166、 cargo transported is 10 kg over 5000 nm,which is 50 tonne-miles;Key:Carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2e);Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII);European Union Emissions Trading System(EU ETS);tonne-nautical miles(t-nm).FIGURE 3-5Conceptual outline of disconnecting the GHG-intensity performance of the physical
167、assets and the service offerings for bunker supplier and shipowner20DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDO
168、RSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSnot have access to the physical product can buy the claim.However,this approach has little recognition in regulatory schemes and other voluntary standards for the time being.FuelEU Maritime builds on the calculation method and certification process under the EUs renewable en
169、ergy directive(RED).The directive requires a mass balancing approach to certify a biomass chain of custody43,and does not allow for a book-and-claim approach where a certified emission-reduction claim can be separated from the physical product.RSB is currently piloting a book-and-claim approach for
170、sustainable aviation fuel(SAF).44 FuelEU Maritime allows for pooling of compliance across a fleet of ships where the average GHG intensity in the pool for a calendar year needs to be below the required level.The IMO is currently working on the certification requirements for fuels and has not started
171、 looking into which chain of custody model to apply.It is also possible that the GHG Fuel Standard will include a flexible compliance mechanism,for example by allowing for averaging across a fleet,or a surplus reward mechanism.The GHG Protocol currently only allows for a physical or average-based ap
172、proach for determining Scope 1 and 3 emissions,but has just started a revision of its guidelines,looking in particular at incorporating market-based accounting methods for Scope 1 and 3 emissions.45 Under Scope 2,it is possible to apply a market-based method where a reduction claim for example,throu
173、gh Renewable Energy Certificates or other contractual instruments can be used to reduce Scope 2 emissions.How are Scope 1,2 and 3 emissions relevant for a shipping company?The framework divides the emission of a company into:SCOPE 1,the direct emissions from the companys operations SCOPE 2,the indir
174、ect emissions from production of electricity and heat generated elsewhere but used by the company SCOPE 3,other indirect emis-sions due to the operation of the company,upstream and down-stream,and would include emissions from production of fuels used by the company.For a shipping company,the direct
175、emissions from combustion of non-biogenic fuels on owned or operated ships are part of Scope1,while emis-sions from fuel production,including biofuels,should be reported as Scope3 emissions.Direct CO2 emissions from combustion of biofuels are not part of any of the scopes but should be reported in a
176、 separate memo.Emissions related to production of biofuels,including land-use,should be accounted for as part of Scope3 as for fossil fuels.Scope3 emissions would also include emis-sions from manufacturing ships,but there are not yet any specific methods for calculating this.For a wide range of busi
177、nesses like cargo owners,banks,insurance and so on,ship emissions,including the lifecycle emissions from fuels,are part of their Scope3 emis-sions.The scopes are defined by the GHGProtocol framework that includes standards and tools to calculate GHGemissions for companies,supply chains,and countries
178、.The framework is often used as basis for ESG(Environ-mental,Social,Governance)reporting,and has a global reach.21DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSSHI
179、P TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSDRIVERS AND REGULATIONS OUTLOOK ON SHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSHighlightsWe report and discuss notable trends,developments,and prospects in the fuel technology transition underway,including:Half the ordered tonnage can use LNG,LPG or methanol in dual-fu
180、el engines,compared with a third last year,but urgent action is needed for training in the use of new fuels.Wind-assisted propulsion and air lubrication are being installed on more vessels.Onboard carbon capture and,later,nuclear propulsion can reduce dependence on sustainable biomass and renewable
181、electricity.422DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSIt is worth stressing that t
182、he fuel technology tran-sition is already in progress.For ships in oper-ation,6.52%of tonnage can operate on alternative fuels.46 Dozens of large vessels have wind-assisted propulsion systems.Air lubrication systems are installed or ordered for hundreds of ships.So,what comes next?Driven by the tigh
183、tening regulations and commercial drivers described in Chapter 3,the increased cost of operating on carbon-neutral fuels will strengthen the drive for more efficient operation of the vessel fleet and simultaneously improve the business case for implementing energy-efficiency measures.Opera-tional ef
184、ficiency measures relate to the way in which the ship is maintained and operated,and therefore generally have low investment costs and moderate operating costs.They include measures such as optimized trim and ballasting,hull and propeller cleaning,improved engine maintenance,and opti-mized weather r
185、outing,scheduling,and vessel utilization.Operational measures do not require significant investment in hardware or equipment.Implementation of many of these measures will require execution of programmes involving changes in management and training.Technical efficiency measures generally aim at eithe
186、r reducing the propulsion and auxiliary engine energy demand(e.g.increasing hull and propeller efficiency,reducing hotel load,shore power)or improving the energy production(e.g.waste-heat recovery,battery hybrid systems,and machinery-system optimization).There is potential for improvement in the are
187、as of greatest energy loss;for example,by reducing hull friction and recovering energy from the engine exhaust and cooling water.These measures generally have a substantial investment cost and potentially significant emission-reduction effects.Many technical measures are limited to application on ne
188、w ships,due to the difficulties or high costs of retrofitting existing ships.With the increased system complexity and the need for partially automated operation of several of these technologies,software and controls are becoming ever more important aspects of ship operation and design.This chapter f
189、irst presents the uptake status of alter-native fuels in the world fleet,and then an outlook on the availability of competence for safe operation of the new technologies coming.Third,it gives an outlook on six selected technologies with potential impact on the decarbonization of shipping:solid oxide
190、 fuel cells,liquefied hydrogen,wind-assisted propulsion,air lubrication systems,onboard carbon capture,and nuclear propulsion.Policy developments and stakeholder engagement over the next decades will drive shipowners to identify,evaluate,and use technologies,fuels,and solutions that help decarbonize
191、 ships,cut energy consumption,and meet other environmental require-ments.The expected adoption of energy-saving technologies and logistics,carbon-neutral fuels,and exhaust cleaning(see Figure 4-1)may fundamentally change how ships are designed and operated.Applying operational and technical efficien
192、cy measures could be sufficient to achieve shorter-term compliance with GHG regulations and thereby reduce the need for consumption of more expensive fuels.LOGISTICS ANDDIGITALIZATIONHYDRODYNAMICSMACHINERYENERGYAFTER-TREATMENTSpeedreductionVesselutilizationVessel sizeAlternativeroutesHull coatingHul
193、l-formoptimizationAir lubricationCleaningMachineryefficiencyimprovementsWaste-heatrecoveryEngine de-ratingBatteryhybridizationFuel cellsLNG,LPGBiofuelsElectrificationMethanolAmmoniaHydrogenWind powerNuclearCarboncapture andstorage20%5%15%5%20%0%100%0%90%FIGURE 4-1Solutions that can contribute to dec
194、arbonize shipping,and their GHG reduction potential23DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES
195、 AND FUELSA review of the world fleet status and current order book with respect to the implementation of alter-native fuel technology indicates an accelerated uptake compared with last year.LNG is still the most prominent alternative fuel technology choice,and can also be used in dual-fuel solution
196、s with fuel oil.Furthermore,there has been an increase in the number of ships capable of using methanol as fuel in dual-fuel solutions.The gross tonnage of LNG-fuelled ships on order(excluding LNG carriers)is more than twice that of such vessels in the existing fleet.The order book for ships capable
197、 of using methanol as fuel is 20 times larger than the gross tonnage of methanol-fuelled ships currently in oper-ation.This indicates that the trend of ordering larger ships with alternative fuel propulsion highlighted in last years Maritime Forecast is continuing,but at a greater pace.LNG is a popu
198、lar fuel choice in the car carrier and containership segments,with 133 and 196 ships on order,respectively.Additionally,there has been a notable increase in the use of LNG for tankers(83)and bulk carriers(39).Out of the 1,376 ships currently on order with alternative fuels,306 are LNG-fuelled LNG ca
199、rriers,523 are other types of LNG-fuelled ships,and 295 are using battery/hybrid propulsion.Methanol has previously been a choice exclusively for tankers in the methanol trade,with 23 ships in operation and 14 new tankers on order.This year,the containership segment is dominating with 142 ships on o
200、rder able to use methanol as fuel.Currently,72 LPG carriers using LPG as fuel are sailing,while 93 LPG carriers and 4 ethane carriers have been ordered with LPG-burning capacity.Figure 4-2 and Figure 4-3 present the status of the alternative fuel uptake in the world fleet and the order book(as of Ju
201、ly 2023).Measured in gross tonnage,6.5%of ships in operation and 51%on order can operate on alternative fuels(including LNG carriers),compared with last years numbers of 5.5%and 33%,respectively.By number of ships,this years figures are 1.8%and 26%,with 1,376 out of 5,258 ships ordered with alternat
202、ive fuel capability.Measured by number of ships,the uptake is domi-nated by battery/hybrid and LNG-fuelled ships.However,in gross tonnage terms,LNG fuel domi-nates,reflecting that battery/hybrid solutions are applied mostly on smaller vessels.Of the 1,079 ships in operation using LNG fuel,659 are LN
203、G carriers and 420 are ships of other types.The statistics also show a growing uptake of methanol and LPG,as well as the first hydrogen-fuelled newbuilds.Although there are ongoing demonstration projects for ammonia-fuelled ships,there are none in the official order book.Using ammonia as a ship fuel
204、 4.1 Status of fuel technology transition98.2%conventionalfuelWorld fleetShips in operation 5 Hydrogen 27 Methanol 91 LPG 800 Battery/Hybrid1 079 LNG 5 Hydrogen151 Methanol 96 LPG295 Battery/Hybrid829 LNG2 002 Total93.5%conventionalfuelWorld fleetShips in operation0.05%Methanol0.25%LPG0.26%Battery/H
205、ybrid5.96%LNG6.52%Total48.7%conventionalfuelOrder bookShips on order 0.80%Battery/Hybrid 2.24%LPG 8.01%Methanol 40.3%LNG 51.3%Total73.8%conventionalfuelOrder bookShips on orderNUMBER OF SHIPSGROSS TONNAGE1 376 TotalSources:IHSMarkit()and DNVs Alternative Fuels Insights for the shipping industry AFI
206、platform()FIGURE 4-2Alternative fuel uptake in the world fleet in number of ships(upper)and gross tonnage(lower),as of July 202324DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYC
207、LE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSrequires the continued development of suitable energy converter technology,which is still a few years into the future.Furthermore,the lack of prescriptive rules and regulations for handling ammonia is making it di
208、fficult to plan for its imple-mentation on board.This lack of regulatory devel-opment is also causing issues for the adoption of hydrogen as a fuel.These implementation barriers come in addition to the challenges currently appli-cable to most carbon-neutral fuels:increased capital investment,limited
209、 fuel availability,lack of global bunkering infrastructure,additional training of crew,high cost of fuel,and additional demand for storage space on board.The uptake of vessels capable of operating with ammonia as fuel is expected to pick up once the technology becomes available,supported by the fact
210、 that 58 ships in DNV Class have been ordered as ammonia ready,implying that some preparation for potential conversion to ammonia propulsion has been done at the newbuild stage.It should be noted that most of the ships which can use alternative fuels can also operate on fuel oils in dual-fuel soluti
211、ons.Also,the alternative fuel may be derived from fossil energy sources,which empha-sizes the need for requirements that address green-house gas emissions from well-to-wake.There are currently 45 LNG bunker vessels oper-ating to serve the fleet of LNG-fuelled ships.A third(15)of these vessels have a
212、 capacity of 10,000 m or more,making them suitable for serving,for example,the large LNG-fuelled container vessels.The order book shows that 11 new bunker vessels each with a a capacity greater than 10,000 m will be delivered within the next few years.Challenges currently applicable to most carbon-n
213、eutral fuels:increased capital investment,limited fuel availability,lack of global bunkering infra structure,additional training of crew,high cost of fuel,and additional demand for storage space on board.FIGURE 4-3Development of LNG,LPG and methanol fuel technology uptake by number of ships,excludin
214、g gas carriers472003200620072008200920000022202303006009001 2001 500LPGMethanolLNG2043693562478263Ships in operationwith order bookShips in operation25DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND D
215、EMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSA technology change driven by transition to carbon-neutral fuels will have to coincide with a corresponding development of the
216、 fuel-specific knowledge in terms of seafarer and onshore organ-ization competence,and in the maritime industry in general.Compared with conventional fuels,the safety risks arising from the properties of the alternative fuels the gaseous nature of hydrogen,ammonia,and methane;the toxicity of ammonia
217、 and methanol;the low-temperature risks associated with methane,hydrogen,and ammonia;and the flammability of methanol,methane,and hydrogen bring a new complexity to bunkering operations,onboard fuel storage,fuel distribution and mainte-nance.Little or no operational experience with new fuels urgent
218、action needed for upskillingThe availability of seafarers with fuel-specific compe-tence will be a critical factor when fuels presenting new operational safety challenges are introduced.Having a clear understanding of the hazards involved in fuel operations and during maintenance will be essential t
219、o be able to control and mitigate the risks.While fuel-relevant competencies gained through decades of operating gas carriers and chemical carriers will be valuable in upskilling other shipping segments,this is a very limited resource considering the limited number of ships and seafarers in these se
220、gments compared to the world fleet.The gradual introduction of LNG as a fuel,combined with decades of experience from LNG carriers and their use of cargo boil-off as fuel,have been important for the wider uptake of LNG as a fuel for deep-sea shipping seen today.It is a result of more than 20 years o
221、f learnings and experiences of designers,shipowners,seafarers,manufac-turers,yards,flag states,and classification societies on how to safely integrate and operate onboard LNG fuel systems.The other relevant hydrocarbon gaseous fuel,LPG,is currently only used on LPG carriers where the crew is experie
222、nced with LPG handling.Relevant experience has also been gained for methanol through carriage and use as fuel on chemical carriers and as cargo on offshore supply vessels,as well as from the first methanol-fuelled ships.48For ammonia,the picture is different.The maritime industry has experience with
223、 carriage of ammonia in gas carriers and as a refrigerant in refrigeration plants,but not as a fuel.Considering the urgency to decarbonize shipping,major deployment of ammonia as a fuel may happen faster than it did for LNG,which means additional focus should be put on the installation and safe oper
224、ational practices by ship operators and regulators.Hydrogen is not transported as a marine cargo apart from one pilot project in Japan49,and the experi-ences using it as a marine fuel are currently limited to small-scale R&D projects.The entry into service 4.2 Outlook for the availability of fuel co
225、mpetence and readiness of safe operational practicesFIGURE 4-4Ship-to-ship bunkering in container port and at sea/anchorage26DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PE
226、RSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSof a ferry powered by proton-exchange membrane(PEM)fuel cells fuelled by liquid hydrogen in March 2023 marked a significant advance for what remains a largely untried technology.50 The safety implica-tions of storing a
227、nd distributing hydrogen on ships are unclear.The general understanding of hazards and risks associated with hydrogen as a marine fuel,and particularly liquefied hydrogen,is limited(DNV,2022c)(DNV,2022e)(MTF,2022).No matter which fuels and technologies are ulti-mately being used,additional training
228、for seafarers is essential to ensure their safety and that of the environment and local communities.This upskilling needs to be mirrored in the onshore organization.A recent DNV study for the Maritime Just Tran-sition Task Force points towards an immediate need to train seafarers(DNV,2022d).The incr
229、ease in newbuild orders for alternative fuels will increase the demand for seafarers with the required compe-tence,challenging their availability in the near term.The number of seafarers expected to work on ships fuelled by LNG/LPG could increase by nearly 200,000 within the next five years.As many
230、as 800,000 seafarers may require additional training by the mid-2030s to enable the fuel transition in shipping.However,the timing and type of training provided will depend on the ambition of decarboni-zation trajectories and the future fuel mix.The ability to build up sufficient training capacity i
231、s currently subject to several constraints including:the lack of clarity surrounding alternative fuel options and decarbonization trajectories,along with slow regulatory development,making investment in seafarer training challenging the need to invest in training facilities and up-to-date equipment(
232、e.g.simulators providing opportunities for hands-on learning experiences)the lack of qualified trainers the shortage of experienced seafarers.The Maritime Technologies Forum(MTF)51 iden-tifies potential gaps for future safe use of alternative fuels within three existing Conventions/Codes in a recent
233、 study:The International Safety Management(ISM)Code,International Convention on Standards of Training,Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers(STCW)and The Maritime Labour Convention(MLC).MTF makes recommendations on how to close the gaps related to safety management,crew training and safety cul
234、ture(MTF,2023).The latest safety report from DNV and Lloyds List Intelligence outlines what must be done to address safety concerns in the maritime sector particularly given the challenges that come with digitalization and decarbonization(LLI,DNV,2023).Digitalization supports the switch to alternati
235、ve fuels.However,while digital tools can provide valuable insights and automate certain processes,human judgement,expertise,and decision-making are still essential.Crew and other stakeholders need to be vigilant,proactive,and well-trained to identify and address potential safety risks.Most of the gl
236、obal fleet of ships will continue to be operated by seafarers even if some vessels become fully autonomous over the next 10 or 20 years.Advances made in vessel operations technology over the past decade have already seen routine activity shifted from ship to shore.For this ship-shore partnership to
237、work as it should,safety and security training of both seafarers and shoreside teams must be reassessed to ensure that safety will be in focus in all parts of the organization.Safe operational practices new safety challenges in bunkering operations The introduction of new fuel technologies is expect
238、ed to have a significant impact on maritime operations on ships and will require that practices are established to ensure continued safe and efficient operations during bunkering,onboard fuel storage,fuel distribution,and maintenance.This includes both normal operational procedures and emergency pro
239、cedures in case of accidental fuel release.Bunkering without interrupting other ship and cargo operations is the norm for conventional oil-fuelled ships with short port stays.It is also being estab-lished as the default bunkering mode for LNG-fuelled ships in these segments.52 It is reasonable to as
240、sume that there will also be a commercial and operational drive towards continuing this practice for fuels like methanol,ammonia,and hydrogen.The practice of refuelling while simultaneously performing other operations(simultaneous oper-ations,SIMOPs)is typically reviewed on a case-by-case basis by s
241、hip operator towards local stakeholders.The purpose is to identify potential hazardous interactions between bunkering and other activities,regarding the receiving ship and the surrounding area,and to determine if any additional safety measures need to be implemented before the activity can proceed.2
242、7DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSPerforming SIMOPs safely requires co-ordin
243、ation between the competent authority,terminal operator,fuel supplier,bunkering infrastructure owner,and receiving ship.The Society for Gas as a Marine Fuel(SGMF)is one organization providing guidance on how to determine which other ship and port opera-tions may be conducted safely while an LNG-fuel
244、led ship is being bunkered(SGMF,2018).Similar guidance is relevant and needed for bunkering of methanol,ammonia,and hydrogen to evaluate the feasibility of performing other operations,such as loading and unloading cargo or having passengers on board,while bunkering these fuels.Depending on factors l
245、ike proximity to populated areas,type of fuel to be bunkered,and type of bunkering facility,the risk may be considered too high to accept bunkering in certain locations or in parallel with other operations(Figure 4-4).In interviews with Nordic ports regarding their views on barriers against supplyin
246、g zero-carbon fuels,nearly all reported safety and regulatory issues as key barriers against supplying hydrogen,ammonia,and methanol(Menon,2022).The safety aspects are perceived as more critical for ammonia than for hydrogen and methanol,illustrating the need for training for ports as well.Their con
247、cerns include,among others,how port operations may pose a threat or affect people living nearby,how to handle potential leakages,the additional space demand related to required safety zones,the lack of a regu-latory framework,and uncertainty related to lengthy regulatory processes with authorities.S
248、afety studies examining the potential ramifications of large ammonia leaks indicate how key operational parameters,such as ammonia storage conditions,transfer flow rate,and release duration,can signif-icantly affect the dispersion of ammonia,and the degree of reduction in affected area that can pote
249、n-tially be achieved by changing parameters(S.Dhar-mavaram,2023)(DNV,2021b)(Clara Kay Leng Ng,2023).An important additional issue with ammonia,however,is that some leaks may be small enough not to be harmful,yet still be perceived as very dangerous(due to the potent ammonia smell)in surrounding area
250、s,leading to potential major responses in public.Irrespective of risk studies,it is clear that from a bunkering safety point of view,performing ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering at sea/anchorage would have a lower risk than refuelling while simultane-ously performing other operations in port.Alter-nati
251、vely,shore-to-ship ammonia bunkering could be performed in designated areas where SIMOPS are not common practice,similar to how cargo is transferred between gas carriers and onshore gas terminals today(Figure 4-5).For ship types with short port stays,the need for performing bunkering operations at s
252、ea/anchorage or in designated areas without SIMOPs would have significant implications for operations,causing delays and additional costs.In interviews with Nordic ports,nearly all reported safety and regulatory issues as key barriers against supplying hydrogen,ammonia,and methanol.FIGURE 4-5Gas car
253、rier loading/unloading at gas terminalDNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORS28SHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSNew
254、 types of efficient onboard energy converters could reduce the GHG emissions compared to combustion engines.One such converter technology is the solid oxide fuel cell(SOFC),which has raised interest in the market due to the ability to convert fuels like ammonia,LNG,methanol,and hydrogen to electrici
255、ty with a potentially higher energy efficiency compared to internal combustion engines.53SOFC is characterized by its use of a solid oxide material as the electrolyte used to conduct negative oxygen ions from the cathode to the anode.The fuel cell is made up of ceramic layers,a few milli-metres in t
256、hickness,stacked together and connected in series to form a SOFC stack.The ceramics used do not become active until they reach very high temperatures,which is why SOFC power plants are typically run at temperatures between 500C and 1000C.The high operating temperature is making it possible for some
257、SOFCs to internally reform fuels like ammonia and light hydrocarbons into hydrogen at the anode without the need for external fuel reformers.If the heat given off by the exothermic electrochemical oxidation of the reformed hydrogen within the fuel cell can be recovered from the exhaust and utilized
258、on board,a higher energy yield and corresponding reduction in GHG emissions could be achieved compared to current dual-fuel engines.Additionally,SOFCs fuelled by natural gas do not have issues with methane slip,and the concentrated CO2 in the exhaust can be beneficial if used in combination with onb
259、oard carbon capture and storage,as high concentrations of CO2 allow for less energy to be used for the capture process.The potential of using SOFCs with LNG as fuel has been explored in,for example,(Georgopoulou,et al.,2021),where DNV and Euronav found that if an SOFC system with waste-heat recovery
260、 through steam turbines could achieve 60%electrical efficiency,then the fuel consumption of an LNG-fuelled very large crude carrier(VLCC)could be reduced by 33%using this fuel-cell system.Apart from the potential efficiency increase,fuel cells have other potential benefits such as reduced noise,redu
261、ced maintenance needs,modular and flexible 4.3.1 Solid oxide fuel cell4.3 Ship technologies and fuels for decarbonizationThe drivers for the decarbonization of shipping are becoming clear and a tran-sition in fuel technology is already underway.However,the search for solutions continues as the indus
262、try needs to understand and have a clear view of all the options and how suitable they are for individual ships and shipowners.In the following,we present an outlook on six selected technologies.They include three aimed at reducing fuel consumption,liquefied hydrogen as fuel,and two onboard carbon c
263、apture and nuclear propulsion that may reduce reliance on renewable electricity,sustainable biomass,or blue ammonia/hydrogen for decarbonization.Chapter 7 explores whether the latter two technologies can compete in economic terms compared with fuel oil,LNG(including carbon-neutral versions),and carb
264、on-neutral ammonia and methanol.Solid oxide fuel cell can convert fuels like ammonia,LNG,methanol,and hydrogen to electricity with a potentially higher energy efficiency compared to internal combustion engines.Simplified visualization of a CO2 molecule29DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE
265、 SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSdesign,and improved part-load operation efficiency.However,fuel cells come with significa
266、nt disadvan-tages related to cost and durability.These challenges will need tackling before fuel cells can make a mean-ingful contribution to reducing emissions.The ShipFC54 project intends to demonstrate that ammonia-fuelled SOFCs can provide long-range zero-emission voyages on larger ships.The Eid
267、es-vik-owned offshore vessel Viking Energy will in late 2023 be retrofitted with a 2 megawatt(MW)ammonia fuel cell in a project hoping to demonstrate the ability to operate for up to 3,000 hours annually on ammonia only.The project also aims to ensure that a large fuel cell can safely and effectivel
268、y be the sole provider of electric power to shipboard systems.A consortium led by Shell55 aims to design,manu-facture,and install a 600 kilowatt(kW)SOFC auxiliary power unit on an LNG carrier for a year of testing in 2025.The trial seeks to test the technol-ogys decarbonization potential,prove its s
269、calability as a propulsion solution for shipping,and enable wider industry acceptance of fuel cells.Additionally,several cruise ship owners are looking at the possibility of using SOFC with natural gas as fuel.MSC Cruises took delivery of MSC World Europa in October 2022.The ship is reportedly the w
270、orlds largest LNG-fuelled cruise ship in operation and is fitted with a 150 kW SOFC demonstrator installation fuelled by natural gas.56 MSC is also investigating other fuels on its vessels Explora V and Explora VI.In addition to LNG-fuelled propulsion machinery,these ships are planned to feature a c
271、ontainment system for liquid hydrogen which will power a 6 MW fuel-cell instal-lation intended to deliver emission-free power for hotel operations and allowing for zero-emission operations in port,with the engines turned off.57 Currently,SOFCs involve about 10 times the CAPEX of internal combustion
272、engines per kW installed,and have a much shorter lifetime.58 Laboratory tests indicate that SOFCs can achieve significantly higher efficiencies than conventional engines,but this has not yet been demonstrated on a ship.Fuel cells must first be demonstrated to have a significantly higher efficiency t
273、han internal combustion engines in real operating conditions,in a real ship energy system,over the ships entire operational profile.Once the promise of significantly reduced fuel consumption is decisively answered,SOFCs can be mass produced and work on improving cell lifetimes and reducing costs can
274、 begin in earnest.The pilot projects underway have potential to demonstrate SOFCs real operational efficiency over the next three to five years.Apart from the potential efficiency increase,fuel cells have other potential benefits such as reduced noise,reduced maintenance needs,modular and flexible d
275、esign,and improved part-load operation efficiency.4.3.2 Liquefied hydrogen The direct use of liquefied hydrogen has seen its first use as a marine fuel for a ferry in Norway59,where MF Hydra has installed 400 kW of PEM fuel cells and an 80 m C-type tank for liquefied hydrogen60.The ferry is operated
276、 by Norled,on contract for the Norwegian Public Roads Administration(NPRA).This is yet another major contribution by the NPRA to the development and implementation of new technology,following the introduction of the first LNG-powered ferry MF Glutra in 2000,and the first electric ferry,MF Ampere,in
277、2014.Liquefied hydrogen is also being investigated as a fuel for deep-sea shipping.In addition,plans are made for transporting liquefied hydrogen on ocean-going vessels61 aiming to fulfil plans for importing hydrogen to,for example,the EU62.The transported hydrogen could be made from both renewable
278、electricity and fossil energy with CCS.Four ports in Europe and one port in Japan are developing hydrogen import plans.The Suiso Frontier,a 1,250m liquefied hydrogen carrier prototype,completed its first international cargo voyage from Victoria,Australia to Japan in January 202263.For an example of
279、a new design for a liquefied hydrogen carrier,see Figure 4-6.Challenges to using liquefied hydrogen as ship fuel include high fuel costs,currently expensive fuel cells and tanks,and lack of regulations for onboard use,due to safety concerns over flammability and explosion risk.A key economic barrier
280、 to using liquefied hydrogen as fuel in deep-sea shipping is the low volumetric energy density compared with other fuels,when also considering the fuel containment systems.The energy density for liquefied hydrogen is higher than for compressed hydrogen,which is being considered in several projects f
281、or short-sea shipping.This makes it imperative to include measures to reduce fuel consumption,not only to reduce the direct fuel costs,but also to reduce the space required for onboard storage.Applying technical and operational energy-efficiency measures,logistics optimization,and energy assistance(
282、e.g.wind)will extend the oper-ational range of the ship and reduce loss of cargo space.Another challenge for the use of liquefied hydrogen is the successful development of fuel cells,discussed A successful development of a large liquefied hydrogen carrier can entail new tank designs for the cryogeni
283、c hydrogen.H230DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSin the chapter above,though
284、there is also ongoing development and use of hydrogen in internal combustion engines64.The technological improve-ments of LNG-fuelled SOFCs can in many respects be directly transferrable to using liquefied hydrogen as fuel.If the higher-end efficiencies seen in research literature for fuel cells can
285、 be achieved,the use of fuel cells can significantly reduce the fuel usage and necessary storage volumes for liquid hydrogen for example,see(Georgopoulou,et al.,2021).Furthermore,a successful development of a large liquefied hydrogen carrier can entail new tank designs for the cryogenic hydrogen.Mos
286、t storage of liquefied hydrogen today is done in smaller pres-surized tanks,and it is to be expected that the cost of storage per unit of transported energy will be signif-icantly reduced in a successful large tank design.Decreasing the cost of a liquefied hydrogen carrier vessel will not only help
287、towards make transporting liquefied hydrogen economically feasible,it will also reduce the final cost of delivered liquefied hydrogen to the end consumer,as will a potential decrease in the energy needed for liquefaction of hydrogen FIGURE 4-6Concept design of liquefied hydrogen carrier,courtesy of
288、Shell Plc4.3.3 Wind-assisted propulsion systemsWind-assisted propulsion has already delivered yearly fuel savings of between 5%and 9%for certain ships,and is claimed to have the potential to reach 25%.Wind-assisted propulsion system(WAPS)technol-ogies have gained significant attention as a means of
289、reducing ship fuel consumption and emissions.In generating aerodynamic forces,they use wind power to supplement vessel propulsion.WAPS could significantly improve the efficiency of shipping oper-ations and contribute meaningfully to decarbonizing the industry,as wind is an inexhaustible,free,and car
290、bon-neutral energy source.Unlike alternative fuels,wind-assisted propulsion because it uses wind energy to directly provide addi-tional thrust to a ship is categorized as a technology that reduces the propulsion power in the energy efficiency indices of EEXI/EEDI.In other words,wind in this terminol
291、ogy is not an alternative fuel that is bought and bunkered.Wind-assisted propulsion has already delivered yearly fuel savings of between 5%and 9%for certain ships,according to vessel owners and operators,and is claimed to have the potential to reach 25%.Potentially,the gains can be higher if newbuil
292、ds are specifically designed to carry sail systems.By combining wind-assisted propulsion technology with weather routing algorithms and logistics optimization(e.g.allowing for lower speed),the advantages of sailing can be enhanced by gener-ating optimal routes for individual vessels.Transition to ca
293、rbon-neutral fuels will typically imply increased fuel costs and reduced energy storage capacity/range.In this context,wind combined with energy optimization measures and,potentially,a small share of fossil fuels,may be just what is needed to success-fully implement a near zero-emission concept.The
294、renewed interest in wind power will probably not lead to a renaissance of the sailing tall ships which served worldwide trade in previous centuries,but wind power can be a supplement to bunkered alternative fuels.Current wind-assisted propulsion technology relies on a combination of advanced aerodyn
295、amics,automation,computer modelling and modern materials to unlock a new generation of innovative sail systems for ocean-going ships.Most modern systems utilize state-of-the-art intelligent control and automation systems to operate safely,without the requirement for additional crew.(IRENA,2022).Thes
296、e ongoing technological devel-opments could decrease the cost of supplied liquefied hydrogen as an energy carrier and bunker fuel relative to other fuels.65To illustrate the effect of reduced hydrogen fuel and equipment cost from potential new technological innovations on the future fuel mix,we have
297、 performed a sensitivity study on fuel price and CAPEX input in the Pathway Model that we use to simulate the future fuel mix of the world fleet.For this latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 we have not run a new set of scenarios,but have rerun two of the 24 scenarios published in the 2022 edition,with
298、the only changes being reduced CAPEX and fuel price for liquefied hydrogen.These two scenarios(numbers 17 and 21 on page 63 in(DNV,2022a)represented a Decarbonization by 2050 trajectory,and very low electrofuel prices(scenario 17)and very low blue fuel prices(scenario 21).With a 25%reduction in liqu
299、efied hydrogen fuel price and a 25%reduction in additional CAPEX for a liquefied hydrogen ship,we see uptakes of 17%(very low elec-trofuel prices)and 39%(very low blue fuel prices)for liquefied hydrogen fuel in 2050.We have assumed that all vessels have a suitable arrangement for oper-ation on lique
300、fied hydrogen,which may not be the case for all ships due to space restrictions66.31DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIP
301、PING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSat publicly announced projects,these numbers are expected to double over the next year.70An example of a large commercial vessel project utilizing wind power is the Orcelle Wind,for which Wallenius Wilhelmsen and project partners have Several different sailin
302、g technology concepts have been or are being developed,including rigid or soft wing sails,rotor sails,ventilated foils,and kites,see Figure 4-7.Alongside the potential benefits of wind-assisted propulsion technologies there are challenges to widespread adoption.One key challenge is to ensure the rel
303、iability of technologies that can operate effec-tively in a variety of conditions.67Currently,28 large commercial vessels have installed wind propulsion systems68 representing more than one million tonnes of deadweight69.Rotor sails account for half of the current installations.Looking substantial p
304、ropulsion effect and improved opera-tional ability from the installation.It has estimated that 21%of the energy consumed by the vessel in 2021 was renewable energy.72secured Horizon Europe funding totalling EUR 9mn to support the building of a RoRo sailing vessel71 over the next five years.Sea-Cargo
305、 has installed two tiltable rotor sails on its vessel SC Connector and reports gaining a Sea-Cargos SC Connector is fitted with two Norsepower tiltable rotor sails(Image Sea-Cargo)FIGURE 4-7 Wind-assisted propulsion system technologies supported by DNV Standards67 RotorsailsSoft sail systemVentilate
306、d foil systemRigid wing sailsSoft wing sails32DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FU
307、ELSAir lubrication systems(ALS)can reduce energy consumption by lowering the resistance between the hull and seawater through injecting air along the flat bottom area of a ship.A vessels resistance to motion through the water consists of multiple components,of which the frictional resistance is the
308、dominant one.For low-speed displacement vessels,frictional resistance can reach 85%of total resistance.The skin friction resistance is proportional to the wetted surface of the hull and the cruising speed,and even small decreases in skin friction can have large impacts on the fuel consumption when t
309、he vessel is travelling at speed.Air lubrication systems inject air along the flat bottom area of a ship to reduce the frictional drag.Due to the turbulence in the boundary layer,an air and seawater mixture is established.When a sustained air layer in this mixture can be generated over a large porti
310、on of the ship bottom,drag reduction is greater than if the air layer breaks up into patches or if the patches further break up into large bubbles.The reduction in frictional drag depends on the homogeneity of the air and seawater mixture and the rate of air flow across the width of the bottom over
311、the length of the ship,making the distribution of the air release units discharging the air an important factor.Some systems apply multiple rows of air release units in the ships longitudinal direction,while all have several air release units placed transversely.Much effort is put into the design of
312、 the air outlets to improve the efficiency of the air injection.The aim is to get the maximum reduction of frictional viscous resistance with a minimum of required air pressure and volume.Laboratory tests have been performed with full-scale air release units to optimize the air outlets.In these test
313、s the water inflow speed is similar to the vessels speed and the viscous turbulent boundary layer behaves like on the vessel,but the ambient pressure of the full-scale ship typically cannot be met.Extrap-olating test results from limited models to actual ship conditions is challenging,but more feasi
314、ble than conducting experiments under full-scale conditions with a prototype.Model tests with scaled models have been used,but the results are also difficult to extrapolate to full-scale.Traditional towing tank tests for calm water resistance rely on a rather complex extrapolation procedure,which re
315、flects the physical processes involved.With air lubrication applied,the validity of these extrapo-lation procedures is compromised,making perfor-mance improvement predictions uncertain.4.3.4 Air lubrication systemsAir lubrication systems inject air along the flat bottom area of a ship to reduce the
316、frictional drag.33DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFOREWORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSFull-scale measurements c
317、an be used to quantify the effect of air lubrication technology.The ability to turn the systems on and off provides an excellent oppor-tunity for verification.Collecting a set of system-on and system-off measurements during stationary conditions has been shown to provide accurate esti-mates of the i
318、ncreased vessel speed and reduced engine power.The net power savings of an air lubrication system will be the savings from the reduction of the hull fric-tional resistance,adjusted for the additional power needed to run the air compressors and auxiliaries of the system.Typical values for net power s
319、avings,as provided by system manufacturers,are in the range of 4%to 7%at normal operating weather conditions(up to Beaufort scale 5)without large roll motions or large trim.Air lubrication is presently seeing a high rate of uptake,particularly in the container and gas carrier segments,but is still i
320、n early days of imple-mentation.By June 2023,more than 347 vessels either equipped or retrofitted with an air lubri-cation system have been reported as contracted or delivered.73 In total,the three large Korean yards Hanwha Group,HD Hyundai,and Samsung Heavy Industries have 137 vessels equipped with
321、 air lubri-cation systems in their reference lists,comprising 105 LNG carriers,26 container vessels,and 6 container/RoRo vessels.The UK company Silver-stream Technologies has 110 vessels equipped with ALS in its references,comprising 19 LNG carriers,53 containerships,20 cruise ships,6 bulkers/tanker
322、s,and 12 RoRo vessels.More vessels equipped with the Finnish company Foreships air lubrication system and with the Mitsubishi Air Lubrication System(MALS)are reported in service or on order.Future research will likely improve the perfor-mance of air lubrication systems significantly,and the ability
323、to maintain a stable air layer for a larger distance downstream is a key research topic.New types of hull coating may be part of the solution.Another important element is opti-mization of the ALS control system and usage,considering the effect of changing vessel draft,trim,and speed,or waves and wav
324、e-induced vessel motions.4.3.5 Onboard carbon capture and storage The concept of onboard carbon capture and storage(CCS)is based on technology that captures the carbon in the fuel before CO2 is emitted to the atmosphere through the exhaust.This requires onboard CO2 storage capacity as well as a valu
325、e chain that can receive and store the CO2 perma-nently away from the atmosphere.Onboard carbon capture allows for continued use of carbon-rich fossil energy directly on individual ships(but with significantly reduced CO2 emissions),as opposed to the industrial transformation of fossil energy to car
326、bon-free blue fuels(ammonia or hydrogen)with centralized carbon capture on land.Hence,onboard carbon capture enables carbon-neutral operation without being dependent on blue fuels or fuels made from sustainable biomass or renewable elec-tricity.Onboard carbon capture and storage systems will therefo
327、re be dependent on a developed infra-structure for shore-based CCS,as onboard capture will be the starting point of a long logistics chain.The ship will require:carbon capture facilities to remove CO2 from the exhaust;process plant to transform captured CO2 to a state suitable for storage;and storag
328、e and offloading facilities enabling discharge to shore or transport ship.Once captured and ready for discharge,successful permanent CO2 storage requires the development of a reception infrastructure connected to a transport network of pipelines or ships to get the CO2 to permanent storage sites.Car
329、bon pricing is expected to be the primary driver for this onshore development.An example could be the EU ETS already in place for land-based industry.It is reasonable to assume that the shore-based CO2 capture industry will drive the development of much of this logistic chain,as the volumes that wil
330、l be captured ashore are estimated to be much larger than for shipping.Shipping emits around 1,000 million tonnes of CO2 per year.Fore-casted global CCS capacity in net-zero policies 2050 scenarios ranges from 4,000 to 8,400 MtCO2 stored annually,part of which could be made available for CO2 capture
331、d from shipping(Ricardo;DNV,2023).AIDAperla is fitted with air lubrication systemOnboard carbon capture enables carbon-neutral operation without being dependent on blue fuels or fuels made from sustainable biomass or renewable elec tricity.34DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFORE
332、WORDFUEL PRODUCTION AND DEMANDDRIVERS AND REGULATIONSEVALUATION OF CCS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSIONINTRODUCTIONLIFECYCLE PERSPECTIVE ON SHIPPING EMISSIONSGREEN SHIPPING CORRIDORSSHIP TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELSThere are several potential methods for reducing the CO2 content in industrial flue gases,while for s
333、hipping,the post-combustion method,capturing CO2 from the exhaust after the fuel has been burned,seems to be the method of choice.Post-combustion capture technologies for onboard use can be based on different principles like chemical absorption,membrane separation,or cryogenic capture technol-ogies.The chemical absorption process using amine solvents currently seems to be the most popular option.T