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1、 2023 S&P Global.Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global.全球自动驾驶市场分析与展望Daokuan LuSenior research analystAutonomyAugust.2023 2023 S&P Global.关于标普全球我们的五大业务板块组成了无与伦比的商业分析与数据情报能力22022年3月 IHS Markit 与 S&P Global 完成合并,致力于提供更好的
2、市场情报,以促进各行业发展原IHS Markit汽车团队整合为标普全球汽车:S&P Global Mobility 2023 S&P Global.3 全球自动驾驶渗透率预测 全球自动驾驶法规概览 自动驾驶全球市场对比中国市场 中国市场不同动力平台自动驾驶发展趋势 自动驾驶供应链预测 电子电气架构演进 车载摄像头 毫米波雷达 激光雷达 智驾域控芯片 2023 S&P Global.4全球自动驾驶政策欧洲以政策法规强化自动驾驶车辆的普及应用 德国率先制定自动驾驶法,赋予L3级自动驾驶车辆的权利与义务,为自动驾驶车辆上路提供合规保障。2022年8月,欧盟颁布 Reg.(EU)2022/1426 L
3、4/L5级自动驾驶系统型式认证的统一程序和技术规范(小批量车辆型式认证1500量/年)。是全球首个允许成员国批准注册和销售无人驾驶车辆的法规。大批量车辆形式认证已经纳入工作计划,预计2024年7月完成。中国央地协同完善自动驾驶政策法规体系国家层面:加快构建适应产业发展的政策法规体系 2021年4月开始修订道路交通法;工信部和公安部联合发布关于开展智能网联汽车准入和上路通行试点工作的通知(征求意见稿),将在指定试点城市的限定公共道路区域内,开展L3/L4汽车上路通行试点;深圳:2022年8月发布国内首部关于智能网联汽车管理的法规深圳经济特区智能网联汽车管理条例充分利用特区的自动驾驶立法权,打造智
4、能网联汽车示范城市。浦东新区、北京亦庄、武汉和重庆永川:部分政府加快地方性法规突破,完善监管体系。日韩加快行动落实自动驾驶创新发展战略 日本修订道路交通法,允许自动驾驶车辆上路。韩国政府公布移动创新路线图,预计2023年底实现L3上路,2024年实现L4 无人驾驶营运车辆商业化,2027年实现L4无人驾驶私家车商业化。美国联邦政府:加快调整监管以顺应产业发展需求 美国交通部推进安全使命的重要工作是:确保2030年的车辆安全标准跟上辅助驾驶系统和自动驾驶的发展。2022年3月,国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)发布无人驾驶汽车乘客保护规定,明确了无人驾驶汽车也需要提供乘员保护功能。地方政府:出
5、台并落实政策法规助推自动驾驶应用 多个州政府制定无人驾驶法案以规范无人驾驶安全应用。以加州为例,机动车管理局(DMV)和公共事业委员会(CPUC)推进自动驾驶测试和运营有关政策规定,促进L4商业化应用。今年八月CPUC批准了Cruise和Waymo在旧金山提供全天候Robotaxi收费服务。参考:中国信通院全球自动驾驶战略与政策观察,2023.5 2023 S&P Global.L2+高阶辅助驾驶功能Source:S&P Global Mobility Autonomy Forecasts,December 202L2 Base ApplicationAdaptive cruise contr
6、ol Lane centeringAutomated park assistL2+Urban ScenarioUnprotected left turnPull overTraffic light stop&goVRU avoidance&nudgeRight/U-turnRoundabout drivingPoint-to-point automation in urban settingL2 Base ApplicationDrivingParkingPoint-to-point automation in highway settingL2+Highway ScenarioLane ch
7、ange system initiatedTraffic jam assistOn/off ramp system initiated Navigation-based automated drivingExtended hands-free driving(via DMS)L2+Parking ScenarioAVP assist vehicle basedSummon assistAVP assist Infra basedRemote park assistMemory parkingAdaptive cruise control 5 2023 S&P Global.中国市场对比全球市场
8、自动驾驶发展60%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20222023202420252026202720282029203020334Not ResearchedLevel 0Level 1Level 2Level 2+Level 3Level 4全球市场自动驾驶等级渗透率预测Data compiled Aug.1,2023.2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20222023202420252026202720282029203
9、020334Not ResearchedLevel 0Level 1Level 2Level 2+Level 3Level 4中国市场自动驾驶等级渗透率预测 2023 S&P Global.Data compiled Aug.1,2023.Source:S&P Global Mobility.2023 S&P Global.中国在L3,L4级自动驾驶的布局规模和增速上会领先于全球其他主要汽车市场。在欧美市场中,自动驾驶部署主要集中在一些豪华品牌车型,另外无人驾驶出租车也是自动驾驶在这些地区市场的重要应用形式。考虑未来潜在盈利规模和自动驾驶数据量,自动驾驶技术的部署在智驾车
10、型占比较大的汽车市场更容易形成正循环和实现商业化。7自动驾驶落地和发展在不同地区存在差异202220232024202520262027202820292030ChinaEuropeJapanNorth AmericaSouth Korea全球主要汽车市场自动驾驶(L3,L4)部署规模预测 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Data compiled Aug.1,2023.6.4%2.9%3.6%1.5%Data compiled Aug.1,2023Source:S&P Global Mobility Autonomy database,s
11、ales 2023 S&P Global.2030年主要汽车市场新车自动驾驶(L3,L4)渗透率预测 2023 S&P Global.5.25.89.916.91.62.33.64.205520224202520262027202820292030BEVPHEV/REEVHEVMHEVICE*FCEV13%22%25%38%58%3%7%10%14%14%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%20224202520262027202820292030BEVPHEV/REEVHEVMHEVICE*FCEV2023年新
12、能源乘用车市场规模预计810万,2030年新能源比例将增长至70%。中国市场电动化趋势乘用车市场动力形式市场份额预测各动力形式乘用车产量预测Units:Million9Notes:ICE*include ICE:stop start Source:S&P Global mobility 2023 S&P Global.聚焦高阶智驾的市场趋势,新技术新功能的部署,包括导航辅助驾驶和L3,L4级自动驾驶未来会主要搭载在电动和混动平台。中国市场对比新能源及传统燃油平台车型自动驾驶发展趋势024202520262027202820292030L0-L2L2+及以上传统燃油车平台
13、2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Data compiled Aug.1,2023.202220232024202520262027202820292030L0-L2L2+及以上混动及纯电平台 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Data compiled Aug.1,2023.2023 S&P Global.12特定应用场景下提供“L4级”体验:L2+,从高速到城区L0-L1AEB,RPA FCW,ACC L2LCL2+NOA highwayL3-L4NOA urban中国市场城市NOA先行
14、者XNGPADS 2.0202220232024202520262027202820292030L2+Highway onlyFull L2+Urban中国市场L2+高阶辅助驾驶预测 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Autonomy database,sales,2023 Q2Data compiled Aug.1,2023.2023 S&P Global.13电子电气架构演进概览Source:NXPDistributed ECUDistributed-DomainCentralized-DomainCentralized Zonal Do
15、main controllerCentralized Zonal Central ComputerVW PassatNIO ET7VW ID4岚图 追光Tesla Model 3分布式架构分布式域控架构集中架构区控式域架构区控式集中架构 2023 S&P Global.360环视功能逐渐从选配演变为标配,人类视觉摄像头到2030年逐渐趋于饱和。视觉感知作为自动驾驶最主要的感知来源,随着高等级辅助驾驶和自动驾驶的渗透率不断升高,机器视觉摄像头搭载量也不断升高,趋近于环视摄像头的搭载量。BEV感知模型成为高等级辅助驾驶重要趋势,因此侧向和后向感知摄像头也成为运用此技术的必要硬件配置。车载摄像头市场
16、预测00232024202520262027202820292030!#$%&()!#$%&()*+,-./01!#$%&()*+,-./01 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Autonomy camera database,prod,2023 Q2Data compiled Aug.1,2023.2023 S&P Global.车载摄像头市场预测0%5%10%15%20%25%30%202220232024202520262027202820292030!#$%&()*+,-./0123!#$%&()*+,-./01
17、23 Triple growth摄像头高清化是整体趋势,前视摄像头中8mp分辨率逐渐成为高阶智能驾驶L2+的主流硬件参数。2022202320242025202620272028202920300.x-1.0 MP1.x-2.0 MP2.x-4.0 MP4.X-7.9 MP8MPGreater than 8 MP!#$%&()*+*45678!#$%&()*+*45678 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Autonomy camera database,prod,2023 Q2Data compiled Aug.1,2023.2023 S&
18、P Global.车载毫米波雷达市场预测车载毫米波雷达的市场需求随着自动驾驶发展不断增加。预计2031年以后新车毫米波雷达年搭载量将突破一亿颗。202220232024202520262027202820292030corner radarfont radarinterio radar中国市场前雷达,角雷达及舱内雷达搭载量预测Source:S&P Global Mobility.Autonomy radar database,prod,2023 Q2 2023 S&P Global.Data compiled Aug.1,2023.2023 S&P Global.毫米波雷达技术升级:4D毫米波
19、雷达ObjectclassificationResoutionRangingAffordabilitypenetrabilityEnvironmentadaptabilityPackage4D毫米波雷达对比激光雷达4D RadarLiDAR 2023 S&P Global.19中国市场毫米波雷达与激光雷达供应商体系对比2023年国产汽车市场毫米波雷达供应商份额预测 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Autonomy radar database,prod,2023 Q2Data compiled Aug.1,2023.Bosch,Conti,
20、Aptiv,Veoneer,Denso72%2022年中国市场激光雷达供应商份额回顾揽沃小鹏禾赛科技理想图达通NIO速腾聚创BAICSAIC小鹏 2023 S&P Global.激光雷达市场预测202220232024202520262027202820292030Level 2Level 2+Level 3Level 4 行车Level 4 泊车中国市场激光雷达搭载量预测 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Autonomy lidar database,prod,2023 Q2Data compiled Aug.1,2023.2023 S&
21、P Global.高等级自动驾驶和集中式架构驱使100tops以上的大算力芯片部署全球大算力芯片需求增长旺盛202220232024202520262027202820292030SOC TOPs:0 to 7SOC TOPs:8 to 23SOC TOPs:24 to 60SOC TOPs:61 to 200SOC TOPs:201 to 500SOC TOPs:500全球智能驾驶芯片营收规模预测2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Mobility.Autonomy ADC database,sales,2023Q2Data compiled Aug.1,20
22、23.2023 S&P Global.2023 S&P Global.22Contact us 2023 S&P Global.PRIMARY CONTACT(S)Daokuan LuDCONTACT USAmericas+1 800 516 2021Asia-Pacific+60 4 296 1126Europe,Middle East,Africa+44(0)203 367 2023 S&P Global.!#$%&()*+,(-.#/01234!#$%&()*+,(-.#/01234Copyright 2023 S&P Global Inc.All rights reserved.The
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