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1、OCT 18TH2023China Wind Power,Session:Overseas InstitutionsSecure and Just Energy TransitionEnergy Transition Blueprint 20231Copyright 2023 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved.Lars Holm rejoined Boston Consulting Group in 2015 after spending nearly two decades working in the energy industr
2、y in various functions.During his time away from BCG,Lars was head of sales for Europe and senior vice president of project development at Nordex,a leading developer and manufacturer of wind turbines.At BCG,Lars leads BCGs global work in wind power and renewable energy.Since returning to the firm,he
3、 has focused his work on supporting leading utilities in developing growth strategies in renewable energies;in analyzing the competitive space;in validating,improving,and de-risking plans,and in benchmarking operational costs.He has also worked with leading supply chain player on subjects such as im
4、proving the execution product design,project execution,assessing the market approach,and reducing material costs by improving the sourcing process.His recent work includes working with the COP28 on tripling renewables and working with the GWEC on the supply chain for wind.Lars HolmPartner&Director,C
5、enter of Energy Impact,Boston Consulting Group2Copyright 2023 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved.0204060GermanyJapanCosta RicaChinaSouth AfricaIndonesiaIndiaMozambiqueSocieties prosperity closely correlates with availability of energySource:UNDP;EIA;BCG CEI analysis Note:Countries with H
6、DI 0.8 and with per capita energy consumption 60MWh are not shown.HDI=Human development index.HDI measures a countrys performance in terms of life expectancy at birth,average years of schooling,and gross national income.Low,HDI 0.55;medium,HDI 0.55 but 0.7;high,HDI 0.7 but 0.8;very high,HDI 0.8 Numb
7、er of people at each level(billions)Primary energy use by countries (MWh/capita)Level of human prosperity,based on HDI LowVery highMediumHigh1.92.61.32.13Copyright 2023 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved.020002050This transition needs to happen at two to three timesthe speed o
8、f previous energy transitions Sources:Vaclav Smil,“Our World in Data”(2017);BP Statistical Review of World Energy;IEA,Net Zero Emissions by 2050;BCG CEI analysis.Note:Renewables include biofuels,solar,wind,and hydrogen,among others.12050 estimates based on the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario fro
9、m IEA.Primary energy supply by energy source150-year coal transition202035-year oil transitionFossil fuels share today:80%Transition to maximum shareTraditional biomassCoalOilNatural gasNuclearRenewables13 years to 41%18 years to 55%30 years to 70%Maximum oil share:41%Coal shareat 12%Maximum coal sh
10、are:55%Oil share at:12%Target renewables share:70%Renewables share at:12%4Copyright 2023 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved.Five technology levers can get us to a net zeroenergy system34 Gt energy-related CO2 emissions19 Gt more until 205023%22%26%16%13%Sources:IEA,Net Zero Emissions by
11、2050;BCG CEI analysis.Solar photovoltaics,onshore and offshore wind,flexible backup energy sources,expanded electric grids,and small modular nuclear reactors Modern appliances,insulation of buildings,smart meters,and changes in demand behaviorElectric road vehicles,heat pumps,and electric arc furnac
12、es Low-carbon hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives,synthetic fuels,and biofuels CCUS at the source of emissions,direct-air capture,and natural emission sinks(such as wetlands)Decarbonize the power supplyIncrease energy efficiencyElectrify end usesUse lower-carbon fuels(for hard-to-abate use cases)CO2 e
13、nergy-related emissions in 2021 and by 2050(modeled)Deploy carbon captureLevers complement each other5Copyright 2023 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved.Energy consumption is already decoupling fromGDP growth,but continued effort is essentialSources:Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory;
14、IEA SDG7 Database 2022;World Bank;BCG CEI analysis.Note:PPP=purchasing power parity;T=trillion.040506070809090200020102019ChinaFranceUKUSWorldBrazil43%+5%72%34%130T51T68T97TEnergy intensity per unit of GDP(indexed to 1990=100,in$PPP)Global GDP(in 2017$PPP)6Copyright 2023 by Boston Consult
15、ing Group.All rights reserved.We need to invest as much in our electric grids as in new solar and wind capacity Sources:IEA;Bloomberg NEF;BCG CEI analysis.Note:Total grid investments were calculated based on the basis of average annual required investments for the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario
16、 from IEA.APS=Announced Pledges scenario from IEA;NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario from IEA;TW=terawatts.050025020250 x2x3WindSolar203020402050APSx10 x14NZE$650 billion to$950 billionAverage annual investments:$700 billion to$900 billion$20 trillion to$30 tril
17、lionTotal investments through 2050:$21 trillion to$27 trillionAPSNZEAPSNZEGlobal electricity grid size in NZE(km millions)World solar and wind capacity(TW)7Copyright 2023 by Boston Consulting Group.All rights reserved.Energy transport costs will multiply,and storingenergy will become more difficult
18、and costlySources:OPEC ASB charts;ENTSOG;scientific publications;US Energy Information Administration;US Department of Energy;European Commission;IEA;S&P Global;NREL;Statista;desk research;D.DeSantis et al.,“Cost of long-distance energy transmission by different carriers,”iScience 24(12)(2021);BCG C
19、EI analysis.Note:1 toe=7.33 barrels of oil;1 barrel of oil=1.7 megawatt-hour equivalent;1 mile=1.60934 km;1 kg H2=33.3 kilowatt-hour equivalent.EU 27=European Union excluding the UK;H2=hydrogen;HVDC=high-voltage direct current;LNG=liquefied natural gas;NH3=ammonia.Transport costs(in$/MWh/1,000 miles)multiply with transition to clean energyHow long(in hours)can we cover average hourly consumption today?Oil tankerOil pipelineGas pipelineLNGH2 pipelineH2 as NH3Electricity via HVDC2,500Gas1,170Oil10,000 coal wagons1.5 million to 4 million tons of CO213Open discussion and Q&A