《CREA:南非燃煤电厂退役推迟对健康的影响分析报告(英文版)(28页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《CREA:南非燃煤电厂退役推迟对健康的影响分析报告(英文版)(28页).pdf(28页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Health impacts of delaying coal power plantdecommissioninginSouth AfricaOctober 2023AuthorsLauri MyllyvirtaJamie KellyEditor(s)Vera TattariAcknowledgementsCREA gratefully acknowledges the support,feedback,and insightreceived from theCentrefor Environmental Rights.The views expressed in this report a
2、re those of the authorsandshould not be attributedtoany of the aforementioned.Cover image:Majuba power station GavinFordham1AboutCREAThe Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA)is an independent researchorganisation focused on revealing the trends,causes,and health impacts,as well as thesol
3、utions to air pollution.CREA uses scientific data,research,and evidence tosupport theefforts of governments,companies,and campaigning organisations worldwide in theirefforts to move towards clean energy and clean air,believing that effective research andcommunication are the keys to successful polic
4、ies,investment decisions,and advocacyefforts.CREA was founded in Helsinki and has staffin several Asian and Europeancountries.DisclaimerCREA is politically independent.The designationsemployedandthepresentation of thematerial on maps contained in this report do not imply theexpressionof anyopinionwh
5、atsoever concerning the legal statusofanycountry,territory,city orareaor ofitsauthorities,or concerning the delimitation of itsfrontiers or boundaries.The views and opinions expressed in thispublicationarethose of theauthorsand donotnecessarily reflect the official policy or position,orrepresentthe
6、views or opinions,of theCentre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA),oritsmembersand/orfunders.CREAassumes no responsibility or liability foranyerrorsoromissions inthe contentof thispublication.2Healthimpacts of delayingcoalpower plant decommissioninginSouthAfricaKeyfindingsUnder South Africas
7、current IntegratedResourcePlan,issuedin 2019,11.3GWofcoal power at seven plants is scheduledto retire by 2030.However,thereareproposals to delay all decommissioninguntila?er 2030.To date only one power plant,Komati,hasbeenretired althoughnotyetdecommissioned.We estimate that from 2020,whenmostunitsa
8、t theplant wereplaced in reserve,to 2023,the closure oftheplant hasalreadyavoidednegativehealth impacts including 220 deaths(95%confidence interval:130 350)and R4.9bln in health costs.The decommissioning delays alreadyintroduced in Eskoms“Emissions ReductionPlan”published in 2022,comparedwith the 20
9、19 IntegratedResourcePlan,willlead to a projected 2,800 excessdeaths(95%confidence interval:1,700 4,300)andtotal economic costs of R61 bln.Delaying the decommissioningof allplants currentlyscheduledtobegindecommissioning by 2030,so that decommissioningonly beginsin2030andbeyond would cause a project
10、ed 15,300excessair pollution-relateddeaths(95%confidence interval:9,210 23,900)and totaleconomic costsof R345billion(95%confidence interval:206 526).The delayed decommissioning of plants scheduledto close inthe 2020swould belikely to have a further knock-on effecton thedecommissioningof otherunitsla
11、ter,as they would overlap with thescheduleddecommissioningof otherpower plants,leading to an implausibly high rateof removalsof coalpower capacity from thesystem.If the rate of decommissioning in the2030sand 2040sisnotacceleratedfromcurrent plans(the current IRP and ERP),thefurther delaysto thedecom
12、missioningof other units would multiply thehealthimpactsof thedelayto32,300deathsfromair pollution(95%confidence interval:19,700 49,500)andeconomic costs ofR721.00 billion(95%confidence interval:438.00 1,080.00).3ContentsAbout CREA2Key findings3Contents4Introduction5Methodology5Results54Introduction
13、South Africa is the 7th largest coal producer inthe world(Prater,2018).Theburning of thisfuel in coal-fired power stations leadsto the releaseof greenhousegases,which arecontributing to climate change,and to theformationof airpollutantswhicharedangerousfor public health.The health impacts of air pol
14、lution havebeen establishedthroughdecades of research.Exposure to air pollution can lead to deathsamongchildren and adults,throughdiseasesincluding ischaemic heart disease,chronic obstructive pulmonarydisease,lungcancer,stroke,and diabetes(Lelieveld et al.,2019,Burnet et al.,2018).In addition todeat
15、h,exposure to air pollution is also associatedwith a rangeof otherhealthoutcomes,including asthma emergency room visits(Anenberget al.,2018),prematureandunderweight babies(Chawanpaiboon et al.,2018),work absences(EEA,2014),dementiaand Alzheimers disease(Shi et al.,2020;Shiet al.,2023),depression(Xue
16、et al.,2021),bronchitis(Kelly,2021),and pneumonia(Zhanget al.,2021).In Africa,air pollution is the second leadingcause of prematuremortality,exceeded onlyby AIDS(Fischer et al.,2021;Murray etal.,2020).SouthAfrica hasa numberof airpollutionhotspots where air quality does not meet nationalair qualitys
17、tandards,let alonetheWHOs health-based guidelines.These areas(theMpumalangaHighveld,the VaalTriangleand the Limpopo Waterberg and Bojanala)weredeclaredair pollutionpriority areasunderair quality legislation many years ago.Eskomsfleetof coal power stations,of which 12 arelocated in the Mpumalanga Hig
18、hveld,and twoare located in theLimpopo Waterberg,isresponsible for most of the air pollution.Acrossthesehotspots,aswellasthroughouttherest of South Africa,a major source of the pollutioniscoal combustion(HealthEffectsInstitute,2022;Marais et al.,2019;McDuffie et al.,2021).In March 2022 South Africas
19、 North GautengHigh Court ruled thatthepoor air qualityinthe Highveld Priority Area is in breach ofresidentssection 24(a)Constitutionalrighttoanenvironment that is not harmful to their healthandwell-being.The poor air quality in these areas causessignificanthealthimpacts.In 2017,itwasestimated in an
20、independent expert studythatair pollutionfrom Eskomscoal powerstations alone is responsible for approximately2,200deathsannually,aswellas morethan94,000 cases of asthma symptom daysinchildren;more than 9,500cases of bronchitis in5children and almost 2,800 cases of chronic bronchitisin adults,2,400ho
21、spital admissionsand 1 million lost working days a year(Holland,2017).While Eskom plans to decommission coal-fired powerplants,theexactpathways thatwillbe followed are unclear.In 2019,Eskom issued the IntegratedResourcePlan(IRP),whichset a timeline for decommissioning severalplantswell before 2030.T
22、hey plannedtostartwith the decommissioning of GrootvleiPowerStationfrom 2018to 2020followedbyKomati Power Station from 2019 to 2020;therea?erHendrina and Camden PowerStationswere scheduled to be decommissioned between 2020-2026(Hendrina)and 2020-2023(Camden).Arnot was scheduled for decommissioningfr
23、om 2021to2029,and Krielwasscheduled for decommissioning from 2026to 2029.Later,in 2022,Eskom issued an“Emissions Reduction Plan”which alteredsomeof the1previously established decommissioning timelinesincludingan earlierretirementforTutuka but delayed the retirement of many otherplants,including:Koma
24、tiPower Station(which closed in 2022);Grootvlei(decommissioning delayedto 20262028);Hendrina(delayed to 20232026);Camden(delayed to 20232026);Arnot(delayedto20262029)and Kriel(delayed to 20262029).Currently,the South African government planstodelaydecommissioningeven further.The current IRP 2019 is
25、currently under review,anda new dra?IRP isexpectedtobepublished for comment before the end of2023.Duringthe review process,it hasbeenproposed that the decommissioning ofallcoalpower plantscurrentlyscheduledfordecommissioning before 2030 be delayeduntil2030 and beyond.It is important to recognize tha
26、t the persistent load sheddingin SouthAfrica isnotdue toinsufficient power capacity,but due toEskomsfailuretooperateandmaintain itspowerplant fleet in a way that ensures plant availability and reliableoperation.The countryhasatotal of 52 GW of dispatchable power capacity comparedto the highestpeaklo
27、adof 33 GWin 2023,meaning that around 38 GW of reliablyoperatingcapacity would be sufficienttosupply all demand and avoid loadsheddingin allcircumstances.Timelydecommissioning2of the ageing coal power plants would reducetotaloperating andmaintenancecosts,243.5GWcoal-firedcapacitybasedontheGlobalCoal
28、PlantTracker,nottakingintoaccountunplannedoutagesanddownrates;othercapacityincludes1.9GWnuclear,3.4GWgas-andoil-firedcapacity,3.3GWhydropowerandpumpedstorage.PeakdemandfromEskom.Amountofneededcapacitybasedon15%planningmarginasrecommendedbytheNorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporationforpredominatel
29、ythermalsystems.1“EskomMESapplications:InputtotheConsultativeEnvironmentalPanelHearingsMedupiandMatimba”PowerpointpresentationbyEskom,24November2022(ver2)6potentially freeing up resources to maintainand refittherestof thefleet.Delayingdecommissioning would saddle Eskomwith an oversizedfleet,makingit
30、 harderand moreexpensive to achieve reliable operation or installefficient emissioncontrolsystems.MethodologyEmissionsprojectionsPower generation and emissions for all plants areassumedtocontinue at theFY202122level,for which data was compiled from Eskomsmonthlyemissions reports for an earlierCREA s
31、tudy.The exception is that where theEskom Emission Reduction Planincludesretrofits or other improvements in plant emissions,we assumethatthese measuresarecompleted fully and in time,with the projectedemissionsa?erimprovementsbasedonthe same CREA study.We projected emissions over time for fourdiffere
32、nt scenarios:IRP 2019,based on the Integrated ResourcePlanERP 2022,based on Eskoms Emission Reduction Plan“Delay all to 2030s”:introduce an 8-yeardelaytothe decommissioningofallplantsfor which decommissioning is scheduledtostart by 2030inthe ERP.Thismeansthat Hendrinas decommissioningstarts in 2031,
33、Camdensin 2032and so on.Wemake this assumption because it doesnot seemplausiblethata?er an 8-yeardelay,all six affected plants would startdecommissioning at thesame time in2031.“Delay all to 2030s,with knock-on effects”:Recognizingthatthe“Delayallto 2030s”scenario leads to much faster ratesof decomm
34、issioningin2030sthanforeseen inthe IRP or EPR,we model a scenarioin whichannualratesof capacity closurearekept similar to those scenarios.We accomplishthis by introducing adelaythatfallslinearly from 8 years for plantsscheduledto begin decommissioningin 2030orearlier to zero by 2050.The duration oft
35、he decommissioningofeachplantandtheorder in which the different plants aredecommissionedis kept unchanged.7Figure 1.Eskom coal plant decommissioning years byscenario.(CREA,2023).8Figure 2.Eskom operating coal power capacity by retirement scenario.(CREA,2023).To assess the benefits of the closure of
36、Komati,we averageemissionsfrom fiscalyears201516 and 201617 as the basis for a“continued fulloperation”scenario.The plantspower generation fell steeply already in thefollowingyearsbutthe first unitswereofficially placed in reserve only in 2020.Therefore,we compared theprojectedhealthimpacts for a“co
37、ntinued full operation”scenario to theactualplant emissionsfor thecalendar years 20202023.Komati emissionswere compiled from the powerstationsannual and monthly emissions reports.9Figure 3.Komati annual emissions bypollutant andcalendaryear.(CREA,2023).2019datacould not be obtained.10Atmosphericmode
38、llingWe simulate air pollutant concentrationsusing theCALPUFF airdispersion model,version7(Exponent,2015).CALPUFF is a widely-used industry standardmodel for long-rangeairquality impacts of point sources.The model hasbeen evaluatedextensivelybytheUSEnvironmental Protection Agency,is open-source,and
39、fullydocumented.CALPUFFcalculates the atmospheric transport,dispersion,chemicaltransformationanddepositionof the pollutants,and the resulting incrementalground-level concentrationsattributedtothe studied emissions sources.Chemical transformationsof SO2and NO2to PM2.5arecalculated using the ISORROPIA
40、 chemistrymodule inCALPUFF.Background concentrations of oxidants(ozone,ammonia,hydrogenperoxide)are takenfrom a global atmospheric chemistry model.Meteorologicalinputdataare generatedfromthe Weather Research Forecasting(WRF)model(Skamarocket al.,2008),version 4.2.2.WRF was set up with 33 vertical le
41、vels and3 nested grids.The mothernesthasa gridresolution of 15 km,and spans approximately1,600 km inboththe north-southandeast-west directions.The inner nests both havea gridresolutionof 5 km,spanning around300 km in both the north-south and east-west directions.One is centredover theLephalale(Limpo
42、po)town and the other is centred over thetownof Leandra(Mpumalanga),whichisnearly 100 km east of Johannesburg.Motherand inner domainsuse a two-waynestingtechnique which ensures dynamic interactionbetweenthem.WRFsimulationsuseinitialand lateral boundary conditions fromNCEP(NationalCentersfor Environm
43、entalPrediction)CFRS(Climate Forecast SystemReanalysis)datasetof NOAA(NationalOceanicand Atmospheric Administration)producing three-dimensional,hourlymeteorologicaldata covering the full calendar year 2021.The power plants were modelled as buoyantpointsources,takinginto account thestackheight and th
44、ermal plume rise from the stacks.The stackcharacteristicswere obtainedfrom Eskom Atmospheric Impact Reportsfor the suspension of minimumemissionstandards at the power plants(DFFE,2019).CALPUFF simulations were run separately for eachof the 15power stations.Annualpollutant concentrations were then pr
45、ojected usingthe POSTUTILfacility in CALPUFF,which allows emissions inputs to be scaled,resultsfrom different simulationstobesummed up and the nitrogen chemistry to be re-run toaccountfor the interactionbetween the different plumes.This approachallowed theair pollutantconcentrationsto11be projected
46、for different scenarios and calculationyearsata manageablecomputationalcost.HealthandEconomicImpactAssessmentCREA has developed a detailed globally implementablehealthimpact assessmentframework based on the latest science.This frameworkincludes ascomplete a set ofhealth outcomes as possible without
47、obviousoverlaps.The emphasis is on outcomes for whichincidence dataare available atthe national levelfrom global datasets and outcomes that have high relevancefor healthcarecostsandlabour productivity.These health endpoints wereselected andquantifiedin a way thatenables economic valuation,adjusted b
48、y levelsof economic outputand income indifferent jurisdictions.For each evaluated health outcome,we haveselecteda concentration-responserelationship that has already been used to quantifythe healthburden ofair pollution atthe global level in peer-reviewed literature.Thisindicatesthe evidence ismatur
49、eenoughto be applied across geographies and exposure levels.The calculationof healthimpactsfollows a standard epidemiological calculation:,where Pop is the total population in the grid location,age isthe analysedagegroup(in thecase of age-dependent concentration-response functions,a5-yearagesegment;
50、in othercases,the total age range to which the function is applicable),Fracageis thefraction of thepopulation belonging to the analysed age group,Incidence isthe baseline incidence oftheanalysed health condition,and c is thepollutantconcentration,with cbasereferring tothebaseline concentration(curre
51、nt ambientconcentration).RR(c,age)isthefunction givingtherisk ratio of the analysed health outcome atthegiven concentrationfor the given agegroup compared with clean air.In the case of a log-linear,non-age-specificconcentration-response function,the RRfunction becomes:()=000 0,1,where RR0is the risk
52、 ratio found in epidemiologicalresearch,c0 is theconcentration change that RR0refers to,and c0is the assumedno-harm concentration(ingeneral,the lowest concentration found in study data).12Data on the total population and populationage structure weretakenfrom Global Burdenof Disease results for 2019(
53、IHME,2020).The spatialdistribution of populationwithinthecountry,as projected for 2020,was basedon the Gridded Population ofthe World v4(CIESIN,2018).Following the update of the WHO Air Quality Guidelinesin2021,whichnow recognizehealth harm from NO2at low concentrations,we use themortalityrisk funct
54、ion forNO2based on the findings of Huangfu&Atkinson(2020)andinclude impacts down to 4.5g/m3,the lowest concentration level in studiesthatfound increasedmortalityrisk(Table1).Adult deaths and disabilities were estimatedusing theGlobal Burden of Disease(IHME,2020)risk functions.Deaths of small childre
55、n(under 5 yearsold)from lower respiratoryinfectionslinked toPM2.5pollution were assessed using the Global Burdenof Diseaseriskfunction for lowerrespiratory diseases(IHME,2020).For allmortality results,cause-specificdata weretakenfrom the Global Burden of Disease projectresultsfor 2019(IHME,2020).Hea
56、lth impact modelling projects the effectsof pollutantexposureduring thestudy year.Some health impacts are immediate,such asexacerbationof asthma symptomsandlostworking days,whereas other chronic impactsmayhave alatencyofseveralyears.Concentration-response relationships for emergencyroom visits foras
57、thmaandworkabsences were based on studies that evaluateddaily variationsin pollutantconcentrationsand health outcomes;these relationships were applied tochangesin annualaverageconcentrations.The annual average baseline concentrationsofPM2.5andNO2weretaken from vanDonkelaar et al.(2016)and Larkin et
58、al.(2017),respectively.Since theno-harmconcentration for SO2is very low and the risk function islinear withrespecttothebackground concentration,there wasno needfor dataon SO2backgroundconcentrations.The development of the health impacts into thefuturetook into accountprojectedchanges in population,p
59、opulation agestructure andmortalitybyage group,basedon theUNPD(2019)World Population Prospects Medium Variant.This factorsin theexpectedreduction in baseline infant mortality and increasein deathsfrom chronicdiseases inolder13adults as a part of the population and epidemiologicaltransitionsandimprov
60、ementsinhealth care.Table 1.Input parameters and datausedin estimating physicalhealthimpacts.AgegroupEffectPollutantConcentration-responsefunctionConcentrationchangeNo-riskthresholdReferenceIncidencedata1-18NewasthmacasesNO21.26(1.10-1.37)10ppb2ppbKhreisetal.2017Achakulwisutetal.20190-17Asthmaemerge
61、ncyroomvisitsPM2.51.025(1.013,1.037)10g/m36g/m3Zhengetal.2015Anenbergetal.201818-99AsthmaemergencyroomvisitsPM2.51.023(1.015,1.031)10g/m36g/m3Zhengetal.2015Anenbergetal.2018NewbornPretermbirthPM2.51.15(1.07,1.16)10g/m38.8g/m3Sapkotaetal.2012Chawanpaiboonetal.201920-65WorkabsencePM2.51.046(1.039-1.05
62、3)10g/m3N/AWHO2013EEA20140-4DeathsfromlowerrespiratoryinfectionsPM2.5IHME20205.8g/m3IHME2020IHME202025-99Deathsfromnon-communicablediseasesandlowerrespiratoryinfectionsPM2.5IHME20202.4g/m3IHME2020IHME202025-99Disabilitycausedbydiabetes,strokeandchronicrespiratorydiseasePM2.5IHME20202.4g/m3IHME2020IH
63、ME202025-99PrematuredeathsNO21.02(1.01-1.04)10g/m34.5g/m3Huangfu&Atkinson2020;NRTfromStiebetal.2021IHME202025-99PrematuredeathsSO21.02(1.011.03)5ppb0.02ppbKrewskietal2009IHME2020Numeric values in the column“Concentration-response function”refer to odds ratio corresponding to theincrease in concentra
64、tionsgiveninthecolumn“concentrationchange.”Literaturereferencesindicatetheuseofa non-linear concentration-response function.No-harm threshold refers to a concentration below which thehealth impact is not quantified,generally because the studies on which the function is based did not includepeople wi
65、th lower exposure levels.Data on concentration-response relationships do not exist for allgeographies,so a global risk model is applied to all cities.Incidencedataaregenerallyunavailableatthecitylevelsonationalaverageshavetobeapplied.14Economic ValuationAir pollution both increases the risk of devel
66、oping respiratoryand cardiovasculardiseases,and increases complications and deathsfrom them,significantlylowering thequality oflife and economic productivity of people affectedand increasinghealthcarecosts.Economic losses as a result of air pollution were calculatedusingthe methods outlinedinMyllyvi
67、rta(2020).The valuation of deathswas updated to thevaluesderived byViscusiandMasterman(2017)which are based onlabour market data,and payparticular attentiontoapplicability in middle-and low-income countries.The valuationof differenthealthoutcomes used in the study is shown in Table2.The Global Burde
68、n of Disease project has quantifiedthe degreeof disabilitycausedbyeach disease into a“disability weight”that can beused tocomparethecostsof differentillnesses.The economic cost of disability and reduced qualityof life caused by thesediseases and disabilities are assessed based on disability weights,
69、combinedwith theeconomic valuation of disability used bytheUK environmentalregulatorDEFRA(Birchbyet al.,2019),and adjusted by GNI PPP for South Africa(Table 2).The deathsof youngchildren are valued at twice the valuation of adultdeaths,followingtherecommendationsin OECD(2012).The valuation of future
70、 health impactsisbased on thepremise thatthe long-termsocialdiscount rate is equal to the long-term GDP growthrate,and the economicloss associatedwith different health impacts is proportionalto the GDP,resulting in aconstant presentvalue of health impacts over time.15Table 2.Input parameters and dat
71、a usedto estimate economiccostsof healthimpacts.OutcomeValuation atworld averageGDP/GNI percapita,2017internationaldollarsValuationin SouthAfrica,currentUSDValuationin SouthAfrica,currentZARReferencework absence(sick leavedays)8535514EEA2014number of childrensuffering from asthma dueto pollution exp
72、osure(increased prevalence)1,0774386,486Brandtetal.2012deaths2,637,0001,069,00015,810,000Viscusi&Masterman2017deaths of children under 55,273,0002,138,00031,630,000OECD 2012asthma emergency roomvisits232951,399Brandtetal.2012preterm births107,70043,850648,500Trasande etal.2016years lived with disabi
73、lity28,48011,550170,800Birchby etal.201916Figure 4.Eskom operating coal power capacity by retirement scenario.(CREA,2023).17ResultsAs Komati is the only Eskom coal power planttohavebeen closed down,if not yetdecommissioned,the health benefits from eliminatingtheair pollutantemissions from theplant a
74、re highly relevant.We estimate thatin 20202023,theclosure of Komatihas alreadyavoided 220 deaths from air pollution(95%confidence interval:130 350)andeconomiccosts of R4.9 billion(95%confidence interval:2.9 7.7).Other avoidedhealthimpactsinclude 760 asthma emergency room visits,190new casesof asthma
75、in children,360preterm births,0.2 million days of work absence,and260yearslived with disability,ofwhich 120 due to chronic obstructive pulmonarydisease,110due todiabetes,and30 dueto stroke.If all coal power plant decommissioningscheduledtobegin by 2030 wasdelayed untila?er2030,the air pollutant emis
76、sions from prolongedoperationof theplantswouldhaveamajor impact on public health in South Africa.The projectedhealthimpactsinclude15,300deaths(95%confidence interval:9,200 24,000),ofwhich6,200dueto exposure toPM2.5,3,500 due to exposure to NO2,and 5,700 duetoexposure to SO2.OfthedeathscausedbyPM2.5
77、exposure,550 are attributed tochronicobstructive pulmonarydisease,570todiabetes,620 to ischaemic heart disease,1,500to lowerrespiratoryinfections,370 tolungcancer,and 370 to stroke.Other projected health impacts include 52,000asthmaemergencyroom visits,9,300newcases of asthma in children,22,000 pret
78、erm births,13.0million daysof work absence,and18,000 years lived with disability,of which 8,600dueto chronic obstructive pulmonarydisease,8,000 due to diabetes,1,900 due to stroke.We estimate thetotaleconomiccosts ofthe health impacts at R340 bln(USD 18,000mln).The actual impacts would likely be lar
79、ger,asthedelaycouldhave knock-on effects.UnlessEskom is able to manage much higher annual ratesof decommissioningin the 2030sthantargeted in the IRP and ERP,the closure of plants currentlyscheduled for decommissioningin the 2030s will have to be delayed as well.This furtherdelaywould increase thehea
80、lthimpacts to 32,000 deaths(95%confidence interval:20,00049,000),of which13,000dueto exposure to PM2.5,6,100 due to exposure to NO2,13,000due to exposureto SO2.Thedeaths related to PM2.5 include 400 deathsofchildren under 5 due to lowerrespiratoryinfections.Other projected health impactsinclude 100,
81、000asthma emergencyroom visits,15,000 new cases of asthma in children,42,000preterm births,27.0million daysof workabsence,and 38,000 years lived with disability,of which18,000due tochronic obstructive18pulmonary disease,17,000 due to diabetes,and4,000due tostroke.The totaleconomiccosts would amount
82、to a projected R720bln(USD 38,000mln).Of the deaths caused by PM2.5 exposure,1,700are attributedto chronic obstructivepulmonary disease,1,800 to diabetes,1,900 to ischaemic heartdisease,4,700tolowerrespiratory infections,1,200 to lung cancer,1,200to stroke.Figure 5.Projected excess deathsdue to dela
83、yed decommissioning.(CREA,2023).19Figure 6.Projected excess deathsdue to delayed decommissioning.(CREA,2023).20Table 3.Projected health impacts in different scenarios.OutcomeCausePollutantERP2022delayallto2030sdelayallto2030s,withknock-oneffectsdeathsallcausesall2,780(1,7104,290)15,300(9,21023,900)3
84、2,300(19,70049,500)deathsallcausesPM2.5830(5231,150)6,220(3,8008,700)12,900(7,91017,900)deathschronicobstructivepulmonarydiseasePM2.5110(69147)826(5071,110)1,720(1,0602,300)deathsdiabetesPM2.5104(37170)857(2661,470)1,780(5662,980)deathsischaemicheartdiseasePM2.5122(84155)925(6301,180)1,920(1,3102,45
85、0)deathslowerrespiratoryinfectionsPM2.5311(226417)2,270(1,6203,050)4,740(3,4006,330)deathslungcancerPM2.577(51110)560(367815)1,170(7661,700)deathsstrokePM2.574(3698)559(269747)1,160(5611,550)deathsallcausesNO2578(2761,230)3,460(1,6507,350)6,110(2,92013,000)deathsallcausesSO21,380(9141,910)5,660(3,76
86、07,870)13,300(8,85018,500)deathsofchildrenunder5lowerrespiratoryinfectionsinchildrenPM2.531(2048)224(144342)401(258611)asthmaemergencyroomvisitsasthmaPM2.57,340(4,34010,300)51,800(30,60072,700)104,000(61,800146,000)21newcasesofasthmainchildrenasthmaNO21,570(3093,780)9,300(1,83022,300)15,400(3,03037,
87、100)pretermbirthsPM2.53,090(1,5003,280)21,800(10,60023,100)42,300(20,50044,900)workabsence(mlnsickleavedays)PM2.51.87(1.592.15)13.10(11.2015.10)27.30(23.2031.30)yearslivedwithdisabilityallcausesPM2.52,360(1,0203,930)18,500(7,46031,800)38,300(15,60065,200)yearslivedwithdisabilitychronicobstructivepul
88、monarydiseasePM2.51,150(6531,590)8,580(4,82012,000)17,800(10,00024,900)yearslivedwithdisabilitydiabetesPM2.5965(2641,940)7,970(1,91016,700)16,500(4,06034,000)yearslivedwithdisabilitystrokePM2.5254(99400)1,920(7273,060)4,000(1,5106,350)totaleconomiccost,blnRallall61.10(37.5092.60)345.00(206.00526.00)
89、721.00(438.001,080.00)totaleconomiccost,mlnUSDallall3,240(1,9904,910)18,300(11,00027,900)38,300(23,20057,400)22ReferencesAchakulwisut,P.,Brauer,M.,Hystad,P.and Anenberg,S.C.(2019).Global,National,andUrban Burdens of Paediatric Asthma IncidenceAttributableto Ambient NO2 Pollution:Estimates from Globa
90、l Datasets.Lancet,3(4):E166-E178.https:/doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30046-4Anenberg,S.,Henze,D.,Tinney,V.,Kinney,P.,Raich,W.,et al.(2018).Estimates oftheGlobal Burden of Ambient PM2.5,Ozone,and NO2 on AsthmaIncidence and EmergencyRoom Visits.Environmental Health Perspectives,126(10).https:/doi.org
91、/10.1289/EHP3766Birchby,D.,Stedman,J.,Whiting,S.and Vedrenne,M.(2019).Air Quality DamageCostUpdate 2019.2019.Ricardo/ED59323/Issue Number2.0.https:/uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat09/1902271109_Damage_cost_update_2018_FINAL_Issue_2_publication.pdfBrandt,S.J.,Perez,L.,Knzli,N.,Lurmann
92、,F.and McConnell,R.(2012).Costsof childhoodasthma due to traffic-related pollutionin two California communities.EuropeanRespiratory Journal,Aug.2012,40(2):363-370.https:/doi.org/10.1183/09031936.00157811Burnett,R.,Chen,H.,Szyszkowicz,M.,Fann,N.,Hubbell,B.,etal.(2018).GlobalEstimatesof Mortality Asso
93、ciated with Long-Term Exposure toOutdoor Fine Particulate Matter.Proceeding of the National Academiesof Science,115(38):9592-9597).https:/doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803222115Chawanpaiboon,S.,Vogel,J.,Moller,A.,Lumbiganon,P.,Petzold,M.,etal.(2018).Global,Regional,and National Estimates of Levelsof Preterm
94、Birthin 2014:ASystematicReviewand Modelling Analysis.Lancet Global Health,2018.https:/doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30451-0CIESIN.(2018).Gridded Population of the World,Version 4(GPWv4):PopulationDensityAdjusted to Match 2015 Revision UN WPPCountryTotals,Revision 11.Palisades,NY:NASASocioeconomic Da
95、ta and ApplicationsCenter(SEDAC),2018.https:/doi.org/10.7927/H4F47M6523Department of Environment,Forestry and Fisheries(DFFE).(2019).Documents-Publicparticipation process on matters arising from applicationsfor:suspension andpostponement of MES compliance and;issuance of PAEL.Republic of SouthAfrica
96、.https:/www.dffe.gov.za/legislation/appeals/mes.publicconsultations_documents#eskom.air.Last accessed 30 January 2023.van Donkelaar,A.,Hammer,M.,Bindle,L.,Brauer,M.,Brook,J.,etal.(2021).MonthlyGlobal Estimates of Fine Particulate Matterand Their Uncertainty.EnvironmentalScience&Technology,55(22):152
97、87-15300.https:/doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c05309European Environment Agency(EEA).(2014).Costsof Air Pollutionfrom EuropeanIndustrial Facilities 20082012 an updatedassessment.EEA Technicalreport.No.20/2014.https:/www.eea.europa.eu/publications/costs-of-air-pollution-2008-2012Exponent(2015).CALPUFF Mod
98、eling System.http:/Fischer,S.,Bellinger,D.,Cropper,M.,Kumar,P.,Binagwaho,A.,et al.(2021).Air Pollutionand Development in Africa:Impacts on Health,theEconomy,and HumanCapital.LancetPlanet Health,5(10):E681-E688.https:/doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00201-1Global Burden of Disease(2020).Global Burdenof
99、 87Risk Factors in204 CountriesandTerritories,19902019:A Systematic AnalysisfortheGlobal Burden of DiseaseStudy2019.Lancet,396(10258):P1223-1249.https:/doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2Holland,M.(2017).Health impacts of coal-firedpowerplantsin South Africa.Groundwork(South Africa)&Health Care Wi
100、thout Harm.https:/cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Annexure-Health-impacts-of-coal-fired-generation-in-South-Africa-310317.pdfHealth Effects Institute(2022).The Stateof AirQualityand HealthImpactsin Africa.AReport from the State of Global Air Initiative.Boston,MA:HealthEffectsInstitute.www.stat
101、eofglobalair.org/sites/default/files/documents/2022-10/soga-africa-report.pdfHuangfu,P.and Atkinson,R.(2020).Long-Term Exposure toNO2and O3 and All-CauseandRespiratory Mortality:A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.EnvironmentInternational,144,2020,105998.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105998
102、24Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation(IHME)(2020).GBD Results.http:/ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-toolKelly,F.(2021).Air pollution and chronic bronchitis:theevidence firmsup.Thorax.76(8):744745.https:/doi.org/10.1136%2Fthoraxjnl-Khreis,H.,Kelly,C.,Tate,J.,Parslow,R.,Lucas,K.and
103、Nieuwenhuijsen,M.(2017).Exposureto Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Risk ofDevelopment of Childhood Asthma:ASystematic Review and Meta-Analysis.EnvironmentalInternational,100:1-31.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.11.012Krewski,D.,Jerrett,M.,Burnett,R,Ma,R.,Hughes,E.,et al.(2009).Extended Follow
104、-UpandSpatial Analysis of the American Cancer SocietyStudyLinking ParticulateAirPollutionandMortality.Research Reports Health Effects Institute,140:5-114.http:/westrk.org/CARBdocs/Krewski_052108.pdfLarkin,A.,Geddes,J.,Martin,R.,Xiao,Q.,Liu,Y.,et al.(2017).GlobalLandUseRegressionModel for Nitrogen Di
105、oxide Air Pollution.EnvironmentalScience&Technology,51(12):6957-6964.https:/dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b01148Lelieveld,J.,Klingmller,K.,Pozzer,A.,Burnett,R.,Haines,A.and Ramanathan,V.(2019).Effects of Fossil Fuel and Total Anthropogenic Emission Removalon PublicHealthandClimate.Proceedings of the N
106、ational AcademiesofScience,116(15):7192-7197.https:/doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1819989116Marais,E.,Silvern,R.,Vodonos,A.,Dupin,E.,Bockarie,A.,Mickley,L.andSchwartz,J.(2019).Air Quality and Health Impact of FutureFossil FuelUse for Electricity Generationand Transport in Africa.Environmental Science and Tec
107、hnology,53(22):13524-13534.https:/doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b04958McDuffie,E.,Martin,R.,Spadaro,J.,Burnett,R.,Smith,S.,et al.(2021).Source Sector andFuel Contributions to Ambient PM2.5 and AttributableMortality AcrossMultipleSpatialScales.Nature Communications,12(3594).https:/doi.org/10.1038/s41467-0
108、21-23853-yMurray,C.J.L.,Aravkin,A.Y.,Zheng,P.,Abbafati,C.,Abbas,K.M.,et al.(2020).Globalburden of 87 risk factors in 204 countriesand territories,19902019:Asystematic analysis25for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.The Lancet,396(10258),12231249.https:/doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2Myll
109、yvirta,L.(2020).Quantifying the Economic Costs of AirPollutionfrom FossilFuels.Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.2020.https:/energyandcleanair.org/publications/costs-of-air-pollution-from-fossil-fuels/OECD.(2012).Mortality Risk Valuation in Environment,HealthandTransport Policies.https:/do
110、i.org/10.1787/9789264130807-enSapkota,A.,Chelikowsky,A.,Nachman,K.,Cohen,A.and Ritz,B.(2012).ExposuretoParticulate Matter and Adverse Birth Outcomes:AComprehensiveReviewandMeta-Analysis.Air Quality,Atmosphere&Health,5:369-381.https:/doi.org/10.1007/s11869-010-0106-3Shi,L.,Wu,X.,Yazdi,M.D.,Braun,D.,A
111、wad,Y.A.,Wei,Y.,Liu,P.,Di,Q.,Wang,Y.,Schwartz,J.,Dominici,F.,Kioumourtzoglou,M-A.andZanobetti,A.(2020).Long-term effectsofPM2.5on neurological disorders in the American Medicare population:a longitudinal cohortstudy.Lancet Planetary Health,4(12):E557-E565.doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30227-8Shi,L.,Zhu,
112、Q.,Wang.,Y.,Hao,H.,Zhang,H.,Schwartz,J.,Amini,H.,Donkelaar,vanA.,Martin,R.V.,Steenland,K.,Sarnat,J.A.,Caudle,W.M.,Ma,T.,Li.,H.,Chang,H.H.,Li,J.Z.,Wingo,T.,Mao,X.,Russell,A.G.,Weber,R.J.and Liu,P.(2023).Incident dementiaandlong-term exposure to constituents offine particle airpollution:Anationalcohor
113、t studyinthe United States.ProceedingoftheNationalAcademiesofScience,120(1),E2211282119.https:/doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2211282119Skamarock,W.,Klemp,J.,Dudhia,J.,Gill,D.,Barker,D.,et al.(2008).A Descriptionof theAdvanced Research WRF Version 3.UniversityCorporationfor Atmospheric Research.https:/doi.org
114、/10.5065/D68S4MVHStieb D.,Berjawi,R.,Emode,M.,Zheng,C.,Salama,D.,et al.(2021).SystematicReview andMeta-Analysis of Cohort Studies of Long Term Outdoor NitrogenDioxide ExposureandMortality.PLoS ONE,16(2):e0246451.https:/doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.024645126Trasande,L.,Malecha,P.and Attina,T.(2016).P
115、articulateMatterExposure and PretermBirth:Estimates of U.S.Attributable Burden and EconomicCosts.EnvironmentalHealthPerspectives,124(12).https:/doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510810United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,PopulationDivision(UNPD)(2019).World Population Prospects 2019,Online Ed
116、ition.Rev.1.Viscusi,W.K.and Masterman,C.J.(2017).Income Elasticitiesand Global ValuesofaStatistical Life.Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis8(2):226-250.https:/doi.org/10.1017/bca.2017.12World Health Organization(WHO)(2013).WHO:HealthRisksofAir PollutioninEurope-HRAPIE Project.http:/www.euro.who.int/_d
117、ata/assets/pdf_file/0006/238956/Health_risks_air_pollution_HRAPIE_project.pdf?ua=1World Health Organization(WHO)(2021).WHOGlobalAir QualityGuidelines:ParticulateMatter(PM2.5 and PM10),Ozone,NitrogenDioxide,SulfurDioxide andCarbon Monoxide.https:/apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/345329Xue,T.,Guan,T.,Zh
118、eng,Y.,Geng,G.,Zhang,Q.,Yao,Y.and Zhu,T.(2021).Long-termPM2.5exposure and depressive symptoms in China:A quasi-experimentalstudy.Lancet,6,100079.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100079Zhang,Y.,Song,Z.,Huang,S.,Zhang,P.,Peng,Y.,et al.(2021).Global HealthEffects ofFuture Atmospheric Mercury Emissi
119、ons.NatureCommunications,12(3035).https:/doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23391-7Zheng,X.,Ding,H.,Jiang,L.,Chen,S.,Zheng,J.,et al.(2015).Association Between AirPollutants and Asthma Emergency Room Visits and HospitalAdmissions in Time SeriesStudies:a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.PLoS One,10(9):e0138146.https:/doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.013814627