《思博伦（Spirent）：5G 2024：市场驱动力、深入认知和考虑因素报告（英文版）（32页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《思博伦（Spirent）：5G 2024：市场驱动力、深入认知和考虑因素报告（英文版）（32页）.pdf（32页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Market Drivers,Insights&Considerations A Spirent Report5G 20242024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations2Report OverviewERIC UPDYKECEO,Executive DirectorAn untapped world of 5G Standalone-powered innovation and opportunity awaits.Its been a long time coming.During 2023,5G Standalone saw sluggis

2、h commercial deployments,largely due to delays in overcoming the formidable technical challenges of deploying and integrating new,cloud-native 5G core technologies and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.But leading operators continued to test and run vendor selection processes.Growth is forecast to

3、 rebound during 2024/5 as 5G Standalone truly opens for business.It wont just deliver more performance,but value that enterprises and consumers will pay for.New capabilities that transform industries.Viable use cases that change lives.All the projections and promises weve heard for more than half a

4、decade are coming to fruition.Driven by growing automation and 5G core adoption,we anticipate 2024 being the year 5G gets real.Of course,with new services come unprecedented expectations.The world will ask more of mobile networks than it has before.As competition grows ever-fierce,there is no room f

5、or stumbling or mistakes.Yes,mobile operators now run extremely complex live networks demanding that performance,resilience,security,and more are tested and validated constantly in real-time.We are proud to fulfill this role in the work we do across more than 3,100 5G engagements globally.I am honor

6、ed to present our latest market findings,insights and predictions of a market ready to deliver on its massive potential and reap the revenue rewards that accompany it.5G Standalone:Ready to beSPIRENT 5G REPORT LEASHED LEASHED2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations3Report Overview3Whats Insid

7、e451214312023 By The NumbersMarket Update5G Outlook Trends5G Megatrends5G Unleashed2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsSPIRENT 5G REPORT4Report Overview2023 By The NumbersBy Customer SegmentCSP34%NEM27%Device OEM29%Hyperscaler5%Other5%TOTAL Spirent 5G Engagements To Date3,100+NEW Spirent

8、5G Engagements In 2023500+SPIRENT 5G REPORTDIFFERENT Spirent 5G Customers In 2023150+By Customer FocusService Assurance9%Transport Testing19%Device&RAN Testing19%Service Experience&Benchmarking18%5G Core Testing&CT Automation33%Despite macroeconomic headwinds in the telecommunication market,Spirent

9、secured over 500 5G-related new engagements from more than 150 customers.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5SPIRENT 5G REPORTMarket UpdateMARKET UPDATEThe Calm Before 5Gs Perfect StormA shaky global economy and markets just slightly ahead of meaningful revenue opportunities defined a ye

10、ar short on visible progress by network operators.Swirling in the background was tireless preparation for 5G Standalone(SA)deployments,private network use case validation,and an expanding pipeline of devices set to take advantage of 5G Advanced capabilities.2023 saw Spirent continuing to march along

11、 the 5G journey with our customers,embarking on more than 500 new engagements with over 150 different customers.This brought our total 5G engagements to date to more than 3,100.Following a year dominated by service provider activity,2023 saw a notable uptick in our work with network equipment manufa

12、cturers(NEMs)and device OEMs.This tracks completely with the deployment activity we expect in 2024.Real 5G is coming and the world is getting ready The data in our By The Numbers snapshot shows an even mix of 5G-related engagements across service providers,device OEMs,and NEMs with the majority of a

13、ctivity in the Americas,followed by APAC and EMEA.This work spanned 5G core and cloud testing and automation,transport network infrastructure testing,service experience and benchmarking,RAN and device testing,and service assurance.Our perspective from these engagements informs our understanding of w

14、hat to expect during 2024.When we look back,I suspect 2023 will have been the calm before a perfect 5G storm.Manuel ZepedaSpirents EVP of Global Sales and Services on telecoms focus as the 5G floodgates open.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsMarket UpdateSPIRENT 5G REPORT615G STANDALONE

15、 AND THE NEW CLOUD-NATIVE CORESpirents largest customer focus area saw testing and validation work with more than 30 service providers during the year a strong indicator of commercial 5G SA acceleration in 2024.This is despite slow commercial deployment momentum to date.Heres what we learned along t

16、he way:Single-vendor 5G core will define early commercial rollouts but 2023 saw an uptick in multi-vendor testing as software releases accelerated,requiring lab and test automation for digital transformation programs that support OSS and lab modernization efforts.Service provider-owned cloud and ven

17、dor-supplied cloud dominated public network infrastructure deployment models while public cloud for private networks was tested to support venue and event environments.Lets dive into some of the key trends 30+SERVICE PROVIDERS 1 5G STANDALONE AND THE NEW CLOUD-NATIVE CORE 2 DEVICE AND HANDSET SERVIC

18、E EXPERIENCE TESTING 3 TRANSPORT NETWORKS TESTING 4 SERVICE ASSURANCE ACTIVE TESTING 5 NON-TERRESTRIAL NETWORKS TESTING 6 OPEN AND NG-RAN TESTING Enhanced 5G core capabilities testing expanded to include roaming,network data analytics function(NWDAF)and access traffic steering,and switching and spli

19、tting(ATSSS)for Wi-Fi convergence use cases,with increased demand for enhanced positioning testing and cell broadcast support for emergency services.5G FWA with network slicing started driving demand for an accelerated move to 5G SA as operators look to better manage spectrum and network resources b

20、etween mobile and home customers.2DEVICE AND HANDSET SERVICE EXPERIENCE TESTINGOur device and handset-focused engagements doubled in 2023 as stakeholders ramped up service experience testing for 5G SA-enabled devices capable of supporting services like Voice over New Radio(VoNR)and Video Chat(ViNR),

21、location services,and secure Wi-Fi calling over 5G:Service providers are dialed in with device makers,prioritizing efforts to unlock 5G SA-enabled revenue opportunities.Engagements around devices are expected to expand further in 2024 as more service providers move to 5G SA.New capabilities will be

22、a big focus as networks upgrade to 3GPP Releases 16 and 17 and support reduced capability(RedCap)NR for wearables and industrial IoT use cases,with enterprise network slicing and XR starting to be prioritized.3TRANSPORT NETWORKS TESTING Router and switch testing for transport testing saw a slight up

23、tick during 2023 with multiple dominant themes signaling what can be expected from these networks in 2024:Large market 5G RAN deployments drove cell site gateway upgrades to 10/25G edge routers and 100G at aggregation sites.200/400G refresh cycles for IP Core backbones are underway as large service

24、providers prep for 5G SA and anticipate delivery of higher-speed mobile broadband and increased video traffic.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsMarket UpdateSPIRENT 5G REPORT7 400G will reach critical mass by 2027 as large service providers adopt 5G SA,and benefit from lower cost per bi

25、t per port and decreased energy consumption to meet CapEx and ESG requirements.4SERVICE ASSURANCE ACTIVE TESTING Network performance is only as valuable as the end user experience it delivers as revenues and subscriber loyalty bank on guaranteed quality for next generation use cases.We saw several d

26、evelopments on this front:5G over the air(OTA)testing requirements are increasing as mobile network assurance efforts move to the field where realistic traffic scenarios are generated to proactively verify QoE and guarantee private network SLAs.Transport network assurance demand for 400G test heads

27、points to refresh cycles as service providers evolve IP Core and edge transport networks to support 5G-driven data traffic growth,which is already 4-5x 4G traffic in early adopter markets.5G Mobile Core assurance continued to grow in momentum as service providers began 5G SA upgrades and prepared fo

28、r new revenue generating and mission critical services requiring guaranteed levels of performance and quality.5NON-TERRESTRIAL NETWORKS TESTING Satellites are set to be a shining star in the 5G universe and testing continues to ensure they can deliver performance that is out of this world.Here are o

29、ur observations following a year that saw a considerable ramp up in testing:New Low Earth Orbit(LEO)satellite testing focused on understanding performance capabilities and challenges related to delivering direct-to-device 5G services.Telecom is taking time to prove the business case,assessing techni

30、cal risks and regulatory requirements that will accompany market entry.Early testing focus spanned large signaling delays due to orbital altitudes,end-to-end voice,emergency and data services performance,impacts of atmospheric interference,and mobility events.6OPEN AND NG-RAN TESTING As leading serv

31、ice providers look to move beyond trials and pilots to scaled commercial O-RAN and NG-RAN deployments,we noted a heightened focus in two key areas:Multi-vendor interoperability challenges drove a growing demand for end-to-end automated testing to make validation faster,easier,and less expensive.Non-

32、functional testing requirements beyond interoperability,including performance,scalability and resilience,grew in importance.5G Stars Align for Satellite Service ProviderA satellite communications service provider wanted to deliver 5G services in remote areas and connectivity to various mobile platfo

33、rms,including airplanes,maritime vessels,and energy production facilities.It faced delays due to limited internal 5G expertise and a need to evaluate multiple 5G core vendors.Spirents Landslide 5G core test solution and expertise were leveraged to develop custom validation methodologies.This approac

34、h facilitated a thorough evaluation and comparison of 5G Core vendor options tailored to unique remote and non-terrestrial use case requirements.The strategy increased the providers confidence when selecting suitable vendors within budget,accelerating entry into the 5G market and enhancing revenue p

35、otential for new services.CustomerSpotlight4-5xDATA TRAFFIC GROWTH COMPARED TO 4G2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsMarket UpdateSPIRENT 5G REPORT8A GLOBAL VIEW:5G Looks Different Depending On Where In The World Youre Standing5G core testing and transport testing dominated our work globa

36、lly,though each region is developing along its own path.Americas and EMEA were heavy on 5G core testing in preparation for 2024 5G SA rollouts.APAC,with a headstart on that front,continued to emphasize transport testing as ambitious new use cases are implemented and demand ever-increasing transport

37、capabilities to support.Lets dive deeper into each market to understand the trends driving early testing work and what to expect during 2024 and beyond.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsMarket UpdateSPIRENT 5G REPORT9The Americas 2023 5G landscape was dominated by a focus on core testin

38、g among service providers,managed service providers,and hyperscalers.Yet,it was service experience testing that saw the most significant growth,driven by deployment of 5G Standalone(SA).This shift highlighted emerging services like Voice over New Radio(VoNR)and Video over New Radio(ViNR),which can p

39、otentially transform communication with improved quality and lower latency.The government and military sectors intensified 5G testing,particularly across core and RAN.This is directly correlated with growing interest in how 5G-based private networks can support government environments,including mili

40、tary smart bases.The goal here is to leverage 5Gs capabilities for secure,efficient operations.These developments indicate a broadening of 5Gs applications,and signal a significant shift in national security and defense strategies towards advanced digital infrastructure.TOP FOCUS AREAS 30%5G Core(te

41、sting)29%5G Service Experience(testing)17%Service AssuranceA GLOBAL VIEW:The AmericasUnlocking 5G Standalones valueHaving made huge investments in 5G spectrum,a North American tier-one network operator is naturally eager to take advantage of the new opportunities to monetise that investment.Already

42、a close partner of Spirent in multiple areas,this tier-one made significant further investment in the relationship,expanding its Spirent Fit4Launch programs to validate new services enabled by its 5G Standalone core network.Combining lab and field testing in multiple markets,the program includes liv

43、e network testing of 5G devices,and new capabilities such as 5G fixed wireless access(FWA)and 5G voice over new radio(VoNR).The testing,validation,and benchmarking programs provide confidence in newly launched services,help improve the quality of existing offerings,and allow the operator to use more

44、 of its valuable spectrum on differentiated new revenue-generating,business-oriented services.CustomerSpotlight2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsMarket UpdateSPIRENT 5G REPORT10Supporting Europes rail network evolution to 5GA European multi-national solution provider for the defense,tra

45、nsportation,and security sectors is building a 5G railway and metro lab to support Europes rail network evolution from GSM-R to 5G and the Future Railway Mobile Communication System(FRMCS).The solution provider selected Spirents Vertex 5G channel emulator to test the complex radio propagation charac

46、teristics between high-speed trains and signaling/track infrastructure.Vertexs cutting-edge capabilities to emulate real-world RF environments in the lab make it possible for the provider to isolate and identify mission critical performance issues early in the development cycle,accelerating time-to-

47、market and reducing costs.CustomerSpotlightDuring 2023,EMEA was defined by an overwhelming concentration on 5G core development,with a particular interest on security testing.This focus was especially pronounced among early adopter service providers,including those with multi-country operations,as t

48、hey continued national rollouts.More mature markets throughout the region saw the groundwork laid for a smooth transition to 5G.Despite these advancements,the journey towards widespread 5G SA adoption remains somewhat drawn out.With nearly 200 service providers operating across various EMEA national

49、 markets,less than 7%have actually begun the upgrade process.This indicates a significant long-tail effect,suggesting a gradual,sustained transition to 5G SA will unfold over a period of years in these markets.This slow but steady progression reflects both the complexities involved in upgrading exis

50、ting network infrastructures and the varied pace at which different markets are embracing technological changes.TOP FOCUS AREAS 51%5G Core(testing)13%Transport Network(testing)9%RAN&Device(testing)A GLOBAL VIEW:EMEA2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsMarket UpdateSPIRENT 5G REPORT11The AP

51、AC region saw a heightened focus on 5G core work across India,Southeast Asia,and Australia.This emphasis aligns with the regions ongoing technological growth and its role in shaping global 5G trends.Complementing core developments was a focus on Open RAN,device testing,particularly for new services

52、enabled by 5G SA,like Voice over New Radio(VoNR)and advanced video chat functionalities.This surge in device testing is a precursor to the anticipated launch of immersive new voice services in 2024.These services are expected to integrate voice,video,extended reality(XR),and real-time audio translat

53、ion,representing a significant leap forward in communication technology.This integration points to a future where digital interactions are more seamless and engaging,significantly enhancing user experiences.In China specifically,the trend was towards intensifying 400G router and switch testing to su

54、pport upgrade of national networks,and position Chinese network equipment manufacturers(NEMs)at the forefront of international 5G SA-driven IP core upgrades.These developments are indicative of the countrys strategic approach to advance internal 5G capabilities while playing a pivotal role in the gl

55、obal 5G infrastructure landscape.TOP FOCUS AREAS 36%Transport (testing)26%5G Core(testing)24%RAN&Device(testing)A GLOBAL VIEW:APACScaling 5G Open RAN Testing for a Top Network VendorA prominent network vendor with a 5G Open RAN offering faced challenges scaling testing and validation for its disaggr

56、egated components.It struggled to automate a CI/CD lab,which required more than two million tests per week.A consultative engagement was initiated,including testing-as-a-service,and overseeing hundreds of Open RAN test systems and test beds,integrating into the providers agile release process.New fe

57、atures were developed to identify resource bottlenecks and an innovative O-CU wraparound performance testing solution was deployed using Spirents Digital Twins.This vendor scaled testing capabilities,acknowledging Spirents pivotal role in meeting testing requirementsa critical step to successful com

58、mercial deployments at scale.CustomerSpotlight2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G Outlook TrendsSPIRENT 5G REPORT12Market EvolutionPrivate 5G5G StandaloneMEC5G Non-Standalone5G AdvancedNG-RANDirect-to-Device5G Non-Standalone About 300 service providers have launched 5G with 280 more in

59、vesting,delivering more than 40%population coverage,including up to 80%coverage in mature markets.5G Standalone 51 commercial deployments and limited population coverage means a market in infancy but momentum is growing as service providers prep deployments and device availability reaches critical m

60、ass.Private 5G More than 1,200 private LTE/5G networks have been commercially deployed over the last few years as pending SA deployments,cloud hosting,and lifecycle automation could unleash 40K+rollouts by 2027.Open and Virtual NG-RAN The supply-side ecosystem comprises 50+suppliers,while demand-sid

61、e support includes 30+service providers targeting meaningful coverage deployments through the second half of the decade.EMERGINGGROWINGPeak MaturityMaturity Curve2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsSPIRENT 5G REPORT13R19R18R17R0222023202420252026Standard FinalizedEquipment Avai

62、lableDeployment BeginsR16XR(AR/VR,Gaming)Enterprise+Private NetworksIndustrial AutomationVoice Over 5GLocation-Based ServicesIoTNTNAutomotive NR URLLC 5G Core Support for NPNs NR-Based Access to Unlicensed Spectrum 5G Wi-Fi Convergence(ATSSS)NR Industrial IoT VoNR(SRVCC)NR Positioning(3 meters)NB-Io

63、T eMTC 5G V2X with NR Sidelink NR Extended Reality(XR)NR QoE Non-Public Networks Enhancements RAN Slicing ATSSS Enhancements Edge Computing in 5GC Industrial IoT/URLLC Enhancements NR Over 52.6 For IoT NR Positioning Enhancements(1 Meters)Low Complexity NR Devices(RedCap)NR+IoT Over NTN(Transparent)

64、NR Sidelink Relay Enhanced V2X Services XR Conversational Services XR+Media Services KQIs For Service Experience Enhanced Support For Non-Public Networks Phase 2 Immersive Voice+Audio(EVS Codec Extension)Ranging Based Services+Sidelink Positioning RedCap Phase 2 Personal IoT Networks NR+IoT over NTN

65、(Enhancements)V2X Enhancements Localized Mobile Metaverse Services Higher XR capacity(improved uplink and downlink scheduling)Integrated Sensing+Communication Network of Service Robots with Ambient Intelligence Positioning enhancements Ambient Power-Enabled IoT NTN evolution(Regenerative)R19R17R18Ea

66、ch 3GPP release delivers new features that enable or enhance support for new revenue-generating applications and services.This roadmap highlights the key contributions of current and planned 3GPP releases for a set of promising new 5G revenue streams.After a release is finalized,equipment typically

67、becomes available within 18-24 months.Initial network deployments begin 6-12 months after equipment availability and may continue for several years.Roadmap To 5G Revenue2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsSPIRENT 5G REPORT14TRENDS5G MEGATRENDSA strong need for revenue growth and a focus o

68、n reducing costs brings 5Gs most interesting advancements into focus.5G Standalone deployments and the evolution towards 5G Advanced are set to put wind at the backs of established use cases,boost profitability,and enhance network functionalities.Lets explore the current state of 5G and anticipated

69、developments in 2024.Stephen Douglas,Spirents head of market strategy on where 5G shows the most progress and potential and where there is still work to be done.SPIRENT 5G REPORT142024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsMEGA2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5

70、G REPORT155G Standalone Poised for Global Acceleration 2024 set for an uplift as demand meets supply.5G Standalone(SA)launches remained sluggish in 2023.Blame the complexity associated with deploying and operating a cloud-native core network.Yet,investments on this front are beginning to increase as

71、 enterprise-driven acceleration is anticipated for 2024.Globally,customer spend is growing 3-5x versus previous network generations.This is due in part to cloud hosting and IT-style release cycles.Also credit an expanding ecosystem that stands ready to support and capitalize on deployments.#1MEGATRE

72、ND2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT16Mobile operators understand advanced use cases cannot be supported without the 5G SA core,leading to an increase in investments globally.This comes as promising signs of 5G SA demand appear with enterprise private netwo

73、rks,gaming and metaverse apps,government and military demand,and energy efficiency and sustainability all representing near-term areas of opportunity.On the latter front,service providers and NEMs are testing power consumption and management of the complete system under high-volume network function

74、workloads across various infrastructure stacks and silicon,with results demonstrating 30-40%power savings.Over 120 operators across 55 countries are investing in 5G SA networks.Cloud providers,operators and network equipment manufacturers are all launching private 5G SA-based offerings.Leading chip

75、and device OEMs are launching 5G SA Advanced-capable form factors,while premium 5G SA services are being tested and launched,including secure network slices,Voice over New Radio(VoNR),and reliable low latency solutions for industrial applications.The confidence to launch can be attributed to new mon

76、etization models that are based on enhanced user experiences and enterprise use cases that demonstrate promise for driving revenues.It is anticipated that costs can be contained via increased operational agility and energy efficiency.Operators are also banking on a prolonged competitive edge driven

77、by differentiation opportunities that accompany a future-proof network architecture.We anticipate more than 100 5G SA networks to be commercially live by early 2025.Controlled growth regional deployments should begin during 2024,scaling nationally throughout the coming years.This promising outlook r

78、equires technical and operational transformation.Deploying and operating 5G Core SA networks at scale will require investments in IT digital transformation programs spanning DevOps(CI/CD/CT),AIOps,and automation.A market ripe for adoption and ready to realize ROIThere are now 17+5G SA core network v

79、endorsOver 86 5G SA modems and chipsets are available Nearly 1,750 device types already support 5G SA51 commercially live 5G SA networks have been deployed2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT17Providing the foundation for these efforts are investments in thre

80、e key areas:Telco network cloud transformation,which integrates cloud into the network for usage distinct from public cloud utilities,and includes hybrid-cloud support to leverage best-in-breed services and avoid single-vendor lock-in.Network lifecycle automation,which is imperative to the transform

81、ation of Operational Support Systems(OSS).Data/AI initiatives,as an unending surge of structured,unstructured,and encrypted data challenge the efficiency of traditional OSS and BSS.5G Standalone fast-tracks digital transformation 5G is not just the perfect backdrop for digital transformation,but a p

82、rimary driver to boot.Yet,the journey hasnt been easy.Opex costs are high.Complexity is significant.Still,service providers recognize an opportunity to position for the future with new approaches to customer experience and business agility.123#2MEGATREND2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Consideration

83、s5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT18The move is happening swiftly We estimate 20%of mature service providers have begun implementing DevOps and agile practices like Continuous Integration/Continuous Deployment/Continuous Testing (CI/CD/CT),as part of OSS transformation.Expect to see this trend surge to

84、 include over 60%of service providers in the next few years,with CT emerging as a priority building block,enabling agile lifecycle processes and creating a path for bridging departmental silos.The rise of support for hybrid-cloud environments is increasing demand for testing and validation of Cloud

85、Native Function(CNF)resilience and horizontal scaling,which make it possible to take advantage of this best-of-breed approach.Rethinking lab strategiesLab transformation initiatives are also front and center for modernization efforts,with cloud migration and automation poised for heavy lifting.Consi

86、der that many large service providers operate more than 50 labs and workbenches,which are typically underutilized,redundant,and power hungry.In more efficient,cloud-based environments,labs meet exactly the needs of the moment while mitigating waste.Lab modernization through automation is a critical

87、step on the path to implementing successful DevOps transformations.Data,AI,and operational challengesThough network data has long been the lifeblood of network operations,the sheer volume being pumped out today threatens to cripple organizations.Complex data sets are flooding OSS systems,impacting p

88、rocess performance.AI is arriving at just the right time to save the day,with more service providers weighing a growing set of AIOps use cases like anomaly detection,predictive maintenance,process automation,network optimization,and root cause analysis.Machine learning gave an early boost to efforts

89、 meant to grapple with data overload.But as data fidelity comes into focus as a key requirement,service providers will need to rely on AI to see,analyze,and even act on their behalf.It will be a cautious journey toward establishing trust as they determine the ability of AI-driven systems to deliver

90、the highest quality outcomes devoid of false-positives,bias,and security risks.Active testing can help ease concerns,providing a real-time,reliable source of truth.Continuous testing will also be vital for AIOps to offer the transparency and governance required for continuous evaluation and iterativ

91、e model enhancement.SaaS consumption models on the upsurgeFollowing decades of massive,sunk investments,Spirent is seeing service providers develop a gradual,steady interest in SaaS-based consumption models.In nearly every aspect of the work they do,network and operations teams are growing more comf

92、ortable with cloud engagement models that reduce risk,big capital spends,and management headaches.This trend also stems from procurement organizations modernizing and rationalizing vendor relationships.5G Standalone is coming,driven by investments in cloud infrastructure,network automation,and data/

93、AI that support service provider future-readiness.As these organizations embrace more agile and efficient operational models,Spirent anticipates the next few years will see substantial transformation driven by the integration of advanced technologies and new operational paradigms.2024 Market Drivers

94、,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT19SPIRENT 5G REPORT5G Advanced set to live up to its nameUntil recently,the flavor of 5G most end users have experienced has been based on non-standalone(NSA)networks that still leverage elements of LTE.As 5G Standalone(SA)upgrades accelerate

95、,users will finally get a feel for what true 5G can offer.Right on its heels will be 5G Advanced,defined by 3GPP in Releases 18 and 19,based on standalone(SA)networks,and powered by the 5G core.This development represents another leap forward for the experiences 5G can deliver and substantial progre

96、ss on the path to 6G.Critically,it targets a wider set of use cases,including industrial automation,smart cities,autonomous vehicles,unmanned aircraft systems,smart homes,and immersive XR applications.Advancing capabilities,one release at a time5G expands the role of AI and ML within the network,pow

97、ering extreme automation capabilities that enhance network operations and optimize energy efficiency.These are building blocks of future cognitive and sustainable networks envisioned for 6G.The Release 18 standard is set to be frozen during Q1 2024,with prototype capabilities appearing in networks d

98、uring the year.Early commercialization efforts are anticipated to begin in late 2025.#3MEGATREND2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT20USE CASES SHAPING CAPABILITY INTRODUCTION INCLUDE:Extended reality(XR)adoption will usher in a new wave of headset devices,in

99、creasing demand for quality of experience testing,especially related to visual perception,inertial navigation,audio quality,thermal output,and comfort.XR network slices will provide guaranteed QoS via mmWave spectrum that can boost speeds based on application requirements.Railway networks are starti

100、ng an evolutionary journey from GSM-R,which facilitates mission critical communication between a trains driver and traffic control centers,to the Future Railway Mobile Communication System(FRMCS)set to be powered by 5G SA and 5G Advanced.From 2025 to 2030,we expect a majority of railways to have sta

101、rted this process,unlocking enhanced capabilities for critical communications,trackside warning systems,predictive maintenance,business communications,and onboard mobile infotainment.AIs role in the network is crystallizing as it is set for RAN rollouts that tackle energy savings,load balancing,and

102、mobility optimization.In the larger 5G SA network,AI will enhance OSS-driven optimizations,orchestration and network automation.3GPP Release 19 will expand AIs role to complement GNSS positioning,especially for indoor scenarios.We also predict Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces(RIS),programmable su

103、rface structures that can control electromagnetic wave reflections,will make an appearance in 5G Advanced.These low or even no-power surfaces will redirect and amplify 5G radio waves to serve hard-to-reach urban and industrial areas with a low-cost model that drives adoption.This is just a glimpse o

104、f how 5G Advanced will build on 5G SAs architecture to unlock additional value and market opportunities,and establish a solid foundation for 6G.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT21Hand it to Open RAN:while still in its infancy and despite sluggish 2023 comm

105、ercial deployments,major strides have been taken toward catching up with traditional RANs more than two decades of progress.As Vodafone commits to Open RAN in 30%of its European sites by 2030 and AT&T expects 70%of its wireless network traffic to flow across Open RAN-capable platforms by 2026,moment

106、um is gaining.OPEN RANIn Pursuit of Maturity and ScaleYet,gaps remain as operators demand Open RAN deliver capability and performance parity.This is impeding large-scale commercial adoption and stoking some impatience among stakeholders with a vested interest in Open RANs success.In the meantime,adv

107、ancements are happening on several fronts:Technical maturity.Vendors continue to make strides around conformance,interoperability,performance,and energy efficiency.Industry coalescence.Key players across telecom,with urging from the U.S.government,are exploring blueprint configurations for a Minimum

108、 Viable Profile offering meant to ease adoption challenges and costs.Standards are diversifying.Different functional split options to support Massive MIMO(mMIMO)and use of various accelerator processing implementations for performance are resulting in new combinations of offerings.These efforts serv

109、e to make Open RAN more appealing to a broader range of customers based on unique concerns or requirements for deployment.While this potentially gets more commercially-ready offerings to market faster,it runs the risk of fragmentation as a greater range of product variations must be supported and te

110、sted.SPIRENT 5G REPORT#4MEGATRENDOpen RAN2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT22Testing priorities come into focusSpirent anticipates that at least a few more years of robust testing will be required to begin approaching maturity for large-scale deployments.Wh

111、ile RAN parity is pursued on the performance front,testing Open RAN will look nothing like legacy approaches.Priority is being placed not just on interoperability but non-functional testing as well,including continuous testing(CT).Non-functional testing focuses on the real-world performance,security

112、,resilience,and scalability requirements that must be met before service providers can confidently adopt new tech at scale.Understanding that support for mMIMO with performance parity to traditional RAN is critical to Open RANs success,validation of RUs,including accelerator and functional split opt

113、ions,must occur before deploying at scale in urban areas.Cloud-hosted network functions must also be validated at scale to assure Open RAN DU and CU radio functions will perform on various cloud stacks powered by a range of acceleration technologies and silicon.Future advancements loomWe anticipate

114、seeing increased investment for horizontal lifecycle management support,including CT to address a continuous volume and velocity of revalidations.Minimum Viable Profile alignment will be complemented by multivendor ecosystems offering pre-packaged solutions that come primed by a single supplier full

115、y integrated,tested,and managed.RAN Intelligent Controller(RIC)applications will continue to be developed,focusing on standards-driven energy efficiency and zero-touch operations,with SDKs gradually becoming available to stimulate developer ecosystems.Each of these developments will bring new testin

116、g implications.Adoption on the horizonSpirent expects scaled macro-coverage adoption by leading service providers in 2025-2026,with earlier smaller incremental opportunities driven by demand in private networks and network densification.This timeframe aligns perfectly with the next wave of 5G RAN re

117、fresh cycles,which will see early 5G adopters give Open RAN a fresh look as they modernize half-decade old RAN equipment.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT23Artificial Intelligence(AI)and the use of Machine Learning(ML)is not a new phenomenon in telecoms.It

118、 has tactically been used to help with internal processes like anomaly detection in network operations and external customer facing systems such as ChatBots.ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEAI from Marginal Gains to Monumental ResultsThe growing complexity of cloud-native 5G systems together with the emergenc

119、e of Generative AI out of the labs into the real world have lead telcos to accelerate their focus on the use of AI from narrowly targeted tactical use cases to more strategic and encompassing implementations.While AI offers great potential it is not a magic bullet on its own.It needs to be part of a

120、 broader solution focused on delivering value-generating use cases.The predictive capabilities of AI/ML and future use of Generative AI to create novel outputs are a perfect fit for the following solution areas we predict will see the most focus and benefit from telco AI investment over the next 24

121、months.Network Management and Operations Process automation streamlining operational and lifecycle processes by powering automation through intelligence.Root cause analysis automatically identifying the cause and location of network failures.Predictive maintenance predicting in advance when somethin

122、g is about to go wrong so proactive resolutions can be put in place to prevent outages.Network optimization dynamically aligning optimal network performance with strategic objectives that maximize return on investment.Network design and planning generating insights and recommendations from disparate

123、 data sources for better network coverage and spectrum utilization.Network security accurately detecting fraudulent activity and predicting attacks to enable proactive prevention.SPIRENT 5G REPORT#5MEGATREND*This image was generated using AI.*This image was generated using AI.“While AI offers great

124、potential it is not a magic bullet”2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT24Customer Experience Management Utilizing AI classification and predictions to tailor solutions and optimize network performance with an aim to enhance user satisfaction,reduce churn and

125、increase revenue growth.Energy Efficiency Intelligently automating and optimizing energy-intensive processes and physical environments including radio resource management,labs and data centers.Data management is key to unlocking AIs potentialIt is imperative to understand and manage the data require

126、d to power AI use cases.Limited data sets,poor data quality,out of date data and untrustworthy data manipulation can lead to inaccurate or biased AI models,which can have serious consequences on inferences,recommendations and invoked actions.Best practice dictates that data architecture and manageme

127、nt should be addressed at the earliest stage,and AI is already transforming data centers,triggering massive investments by large and medium-sized cloud service providers to build out AI back-end,front-end and interconnect fabrics to keep pace with demand.In 2024,look for intense focus on GPUs and ot

128、her back-end infrastructure for large AI learning and inferencing clusters while investment grows in faster interconnect technologies to enable it.We expect Ethernet to dominate AI front-end network designs,with initially 400G and then 800G adoption to grow over the coming years.Even in the network

129、back-end,during 2024 and 2025 we will see new designs come to the fore that allow for standards-based high-speed Ethernet as a viable alternative to proprietary InfiniBand technology.We predict Ethernet to gradually become essential for the long-term evolution of AI interconnects within the data cen

130、ter,both front-and back-end,simply due to the huge volume of high-speed,low-latency processing that AI demands.*This image was generated using AI.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT25When it comes to private 5G,leading enterprises already have use cases in m

131、ind,know roughly what connectivity capabilities are necessary to support them,and are eager to achieve specific business outcomes.SPIRENT 5G REPORTPRIVATE NETWORKSRapid ROI Greets Early AdoptersThis is adding up to a solid,growing revenue opportunity for operators eager to capitalize on steep 5G inv

132、estments.The first half of 2023 saw early commercial private network implementations delivering ROI in as early as six months across use cases,including connected worker,video monitoring,and reliable mobile broadband.These early enterprise adopters reported reductions in downtime and increased produ

133、ctivity as successful outcomes.As word spreads about beneficial outcomes,the private network market is set to take off.Estimates suggest over 1,200 LTE or 5G private networks have been deployed globally.Manufacturing represents the largest segment,followed by transport and logistics.Seaports,public

134、venues,and government and defense sectors have been the fastest growing.Operators gradually took sizable market share during 2023 as primes in a large percentage of new deals,but deployment sizes remain small,connecting hundreds of devices rather than thousands.Spirent predicts 2024 will deliver a m

135、eaningful source of incremental revenue for mobile operators that can meet early private network demands.We anticipate growth in private and public roaming requirements,and government and military adoption in bases and government facilities.#6MEGATREND2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5

136、G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT26Deployments defined by lack of complexityComplexity tends to come with the 5G territory.But its actually simplicity driving the early private wireless market.Sectors like manufacturing,energy,and utility bring a range of high-demand use cases that have not yet been acc

137、ompanied by complex requirements.It simply comes down to getting reliable 5G mobile broadband connectivity to the right place,often with small,lightweight radio footprints supported by a lightweight core,capable of sufficiently covering indoor and outdoor environments.We are seeing a growth in light

138、weight,low cost Network In a Box(NIB)offerings combined with automation and edge servers implemented to host applications and processing locally to help further reduce overall footprints.Performance is what countsPrivate wireless customers are desperate for reliability,security,and predictable perfo

139、rmance.A survey we conducted with STL Partners found overwhelmingly that enterprises placed a high value on these attributes and are willing to pay a premium for network SLAs to guarantee business outcomes and ROI.This represents a prime monetization opportunity for operators.More private wireless c

140、ustomers are also eyeing the edge to meet increased computing requirements.They are requesting edge compute capabilities be packaged into offerings to address security and data privacy challenges,and regulatory requirements by keeping sensitive data close for processing versus backhauling it to macr

141、o or public cloud networks.An edge-based approach is also better positioned to meet the needs of latency-sensitive applications.Spirent expects to see increasing demand around SLA management with testing and assurance that continuously validates data is remaining private and secure,while the network

142、 is performing reliably.This work will be tied to associated network key performance indicators with a focus on providing automated and proactive fault isolation and resolution.Hybrid approaches also important.Especially among the small-to-medium size business set,a hybrid approach that combines on-

143、site connectivity and processing as needed with macro network components is also gaining steam.Specifically,we are seeing interest for a model that keeps radio infrastructure and edge computing on site while core network functions are hosted in the public network to keep costs under control.We also

144、anticipate network slicing combined with security playing a pivotal role.With the growth in hybrid working requirements and the need for secure access control zones in enterprise environments,the combination of SIM-based network security slices with enterprise security(SASE)and Zero Touch Network Ac

145、cess(ZTNA)offers operators a unique and differentiated value proposition.But devices still lacking Despite encouraging progress,we must flag a continued lack of the types of end devices that will support a broader range of use cases,especially in sectors like industrial IoT.This could negatively imp

146、act adoption as we witness a slower ramp-up than perhaps the market is otherwise ready to serve.In 2024,we anticipate more 5G-ready devices such as AR headsets and ruggedized handsets will come to market.This will be a positive development for industries that have specific use cases ready to go and

147、are just awaiting anticipated augmented reality capabilities to support them.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT27Medium Earth Orbit(MEO)2,000 to 35,768 kmGeosynchronous Earth Orbit(GEO)Above 35,768 kmLow Earth Orbit(LEO)160 to 2000 kmSPIRENT 5G REPORTLow Ea

148、rth Orbit(LEO)satellites are the kind of space invaders seemingly everyone can get behind.This burgeoning market has already seen more than 5,700 LEO satellites put into orbit as mega constellations are rapidly deployed.These can go a long way toward reducing“dead zones”where it has not been economi

149、cally viable to build radios.Public safety services stand to get a big boost while enterprises eye remote connectivity.Communities underserved by legacy connection options could finally see new competitive offerings.Emergency and SMS services are estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars

150、 per year while voice and data opportunities powered by satellite could reach tens of billions of dollars.As a result,leading operators are investing and moving quickly to establish partnerships with key stakeholders as they look to test capabilities,develop a business case,and prepare go-to-market

151、strategies.Spectrum considerations loomMany mobile network operators want to use their terrestrial spectrum from space for immediate backwards compatibility with existing handsets,though these devices are not optimized for satellite idiosyncrasies like doppler shifts due to extreme speeds and latenc

152、y from orbital distances.To mitigate interference in these spectrum bands,this approach also requires regulatory approval on a per-country basis.There is also the option to use dedicated non-terrestrial spectrum.However,this requires proprietary handsets and chipsets for compatibility which could li

153、mit adoption to specialized use cases.We have seen operators and LEO providers like AST SpaceMobile,Lynk,and Starlink focus on the terrestrial spectrum-based approach,leveraging existing operator spectrum to capitalize on better device compatibility.More traditional satellite providers,like Inmarsat

154、,Iridium,Globalstar,Omnispace,EchoStar,and Thuraya are proceeding with dedicated spectrum and are expected to carve out key market segments that could benefit from this approach and limited regulatory hurdles in getting to market.NON-TERRESTRIAL NETWORKSSpaces Newest Bright Spot May Be Worth Billion

155、s#7MEGATREND2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT28Standards on the wayStandards that support various aspects of satellite capabilities are planned in 3GPP releases over the next several years,including:3GPP R17 3GPP R18 5G Advanced3GPP R19 3GPP R20 FROZEN IN

156、MID-2022Represents initial efforts to integrate satellite within the 3GPP mobile ecosystem,supporting transparent payloads that see satellite act as a repeater of the radio signal.TARGETED TO BE FROZEN IN EARLY 2024Provides enhancements for network location and mobility between NTN-NTN and NTN-TN.ES

157、TIMATED TO BE FROZEN BY END OF 2025Supports regenerative payloads or base stations directly on the satellite.Represents the beginning of 6G NTN standards integration.What to expect from an expanding marketBuilding on the momentum initiated by Apples early integration of direct-to-device satellite co

158、mmunication for safety services in 2023,the non-terrestrial network(NTN)market is poised for significant expansion.Beginning in 2024,we expect to see the initiation of SMS and narrowband IoT services,a crucial development that will set the stage for more advanced offerings.By 2026 or 2027,we anticip

159、ate the introduction of voice and mobile broadband data services,which drastically broaden the scope and utility of NTNs and drive mass adoption.This progression will depend on adherence to 3GPP standards by handset manufacturers to circumvent the need for costly proprietary systems,and facilitate a

160、 more seamless and cost-effective integration into existing mobile ecosystems.It also assumes a gradual harmonization of regulations,which will ensure a more seamless operation of NTN services across geographic regions.By 2030,the NTN market could support well over 50,000 LEO satellites in active or

161、bit,enhancing coverage and improving the quality and reliability of services.The testing of key design characteristics essential for direct-to-device communications will become a focal point and include:NTN channel models.Crucial for testing large signal delays,doppler shifts,handovers,and path loss

162、.Accurate channel models will be vital for the reliable operation of NTN services.End-to-End(E2E)NTN performance and mobility management.Encompasses emergency services,the Internet of Things(IoT),and mobile broadband.This comprehensive approach ensures that all aspects of NTN services are robust and

163、 dependable.Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)operations.The initial phase will involve validating GNSS-capable handsets,followed by non-capable handsets,and eventually,GNSS delivered directly from LEO satellites.This step-by-step approach is critical for ensuring the accuracy and reliability

164、of location-based services.The next few years are set to be a transformative period for NTNs,with advancements in technology,regulatory frameworks,and testing methodologies paving the way for a new era of satellite communication.2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G

165、REPORT29Marking milestones on a sensory journey 5G MEGATRENDS292024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsSPIRENT 5G REPORTWith ITU officially setting an agenda for 6G development and IMT-2030 agreed as the technical reference,6G may be here before we know it.There are several key building block

166、s and capabilities poised to roll out in forthcoming 5G releases.This time,its not operators but governments pushing hardest to accelerate timetables.Globally,we estimate various nations have already set aside more than$35 billion for 6G research.Excitement for integrated sensing communications with

167、 merged physical,digital,and biological worlds is building as visions of holographic,tactile and physiological-driven communications come into focus.But right now,the attention is on 6Gs immersive communications,ubiquitous and highly reliable,low latency connectivity,integrated AI,and sensing.This m

168、ay sound similar to what was promised in 5G.Thats because 5Gs planned evolutionary path is set to overlap with 6G development in each planned standards release.In fact,it is the latter stages of 5G Advanced that will provide a sandbox for 6Gs earliest capabilities.The initial focus of these features

169、 will be targeted to the enterprise,industrial,and non-terrestrial space sectors.#8MEGATREND2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and Considerations5G MEGATRENDSSPIRENT 5G REPORT30SPIRENT 5G REPORT6G MARKING MILESTONES ON A SENSORY JOURNEY Drawing a line between 5G 6GIts all about the spectrum.6Gs timelines

170、arent set in stone but Spirent expects the better part of this decade to be spent on research and development.Typically,its not until new spectrum is officially dedicated and radio support commercialized that a new generation has officially arrived.In the meantime,we recognize several key research a

171、reas that will dominate development efforts in the coming decades,each requiring considerable testing resources:New radio spectrum utilization.Harmonization of the upper mid-band ranges(6.425-7.125 GHz),Centimetric ranges(7-15GHz and 15-24GHz)for wide coverage,and capacity requirements for new use c

172、ases in dense areas.Sub Terahertz(THz),especially in the 102-275GHz range for niche use cases like short range device-to-device communications and X-Haul which requires extremely high speeds.Utilization of reconfigurable intelligent surfaces.Energy-efficient surfaces,like those made of graphene,ampl

173、ify and redirect signals,improving coverage in hard-to-reach areas.Cognitive networks.Utilization of network digital twins to dynamically model and optimize networks,and integration of AI and intelligent automation for self-driving,self-healing,and self-defending networks.Open interoperable network

174、of networks.Integrating terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks with high-altitude platforms and subsea networks for comprehensive 3D coverage,evolution from cloud to Open RAN to cell-free,and hyper-convergence spanning licensed and unlicensed Wi-Fi and RAN-Core convergence.With government funding

175、and geo-politics accelerating the process,it is quite possible that absent global alignment via standardization,different markets could implement different 6G variants.The precise end state for 6G is not clear but the journey has started,with 5G Advanced set to be a natural early benefactor.If overl

176、apping functionality will define the journey to 6G,where is the line of delineation between the two generations?2024 Market Drivers,Insights,and ConsiderationsAbout SpirentSPIRENT 5G REPORT31Spirent has the vendor-neutral expertise and innovative solutions to unblock the path to 5G Standalone,unlock

177、 new cost efficiencies,and unveil new revenue-generating services.Service providers can choose from many different starting points and goals as they migrate to 5G Standalone.Some are greenfield operators,while others are taking the next step after 4G or 5G Non-Standalone.Some service providers are i

178、nclined to use a single vendor to simplify deployments,while others will integrate solutions from multiple vendors.Spirent has already supported more than 50 service and cloud providers as they select vendors,test,and commercially launch 5G Standalone with the new cloud-native core network.Based on

179、our experience,we describe 5G Standalone success as a journey with five key steps.The journey begins with 3GPP compliance,capacity,and performance validation,moving to security and validating cloud-native network functions.The final step incorporates automated,continuous testing across lab and produ

180、ction networks.Regardless of your progress on the journey to 5G Standalone,Spirent has the vendor-neutral test,assurance,and automation solutions to help you unleash the potential of 5G and deliver a new generation of revenue-generating services.Spirent is the vendor-independent market leader in key

181、 5G test,assurance,and automation segments:5G/4G CORE NETWORK TEST&EMULATIONTELECOM LAB AUTOMATION AND TRANSFORMATION 5G ACTIVE ASSURANCE(ACTIVE TEST)5G SERVICE EXPERIENCE TESTING(VONR,VINR,LBS,XR)HIGH SPEED ETHERNET(HSE)TRANSPORT NETWORK TESTINGNAVIGATION&TIMING(PNT)TEST AND SIMULATIONSpirents cutt

182、ing-edge experience enables us to continually deliver first-to-market solutions in areas such as:CONTINUOUS TESTINGCLOUD NATIVE VALIDATIONEND-2-END AUTOMATED O-RAN TEST800G ETHERNET TESTLEO SATELLITE TEST&ORBITAL SIMULATION5G UnleashedAbout SpirentSpirent Communications plc.(LSE:SPT)is the leading g

183、lobal provider of automated test and assurance solutions for networks,cybersecurity,and positioning.The company provides innovative products,services,and managed solutions that address the test,assurance,and automation challenges of a new generation of technologies,including 5G,edge computing,cloud,

184、autonomous vehicles,and beyond.From the lab to the real world,Spirent helps companies deliver on their promise to their customers of a new generation of connected devices and technologies.For more information visit:.LEARN MORE IN THE 5G EBOOK:Learn how to unblock 5G Standalone challenges,unlock the

185、efficiencies of the cloud-native 5G Core,and unveil new revenue-generating 2024 Spirent Communications,Inc.All of the company names and/or brand names and/or product names and/or logos referred to in this document,in particular the name“Spirent”and its logo device,are either registered trademarks or

186、 trademarks pending registration in accordance with relevant national laws.All rights reserved.The content of this document is subject to change without notice.Rev A|2/2024About Spirent CommunicationsSpirent Communications(LSE:SPT)is a global leader with deep expertise and decades of experience in t

187、esting,assurance,analytics,and security,serving developers,service providers,and enterprise networks.We help bring clarity to increasingly complex technological and business challenges.Spirents customers have made a promise to their customers to deliver superior performance.Spirent assures that those promises are fulfilled.For more information,visit:Americas 1-800-SPIRENT+1-800-774-7368|Europe and the Middle East+44(0)1293 767979|Asia and the Pacific+86-10-8518-2539|