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1、Energy Policy ReviewColombia 2023The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that
2、 will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers
3、 and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew Zealand
4、NorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIO
5、NAL ENERGYAGENCY 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ENERGY INSIGHTS 1.Executive summary.7 Key recommendations.9 2.General energy policy.11 Country overview.11 Energy supply and demand.14 Energy strategies and targets.18 Energy data and statistics.22 Assessment.23 Recommendations.24 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION 3.E
6、nergy and climate change.27 Overview.27 Energy-related CO2 emissions.28 CO2 emissions drivers and carbon intensity.29 Climate change targets.30 Climate change mitigation policies.36 Climate adaptation and resilience.39 Assessment.41 Recommendations.45 4.Energy efficiency.49 Overview.49 Industry.51 B
7、uildings and district heating.52 Transport.54 Assessment.57 5.Renewable energy.63 Overview.63 Trends in renewable energy by sector.64 Renewable energy targets.65 Assessment.73 Recommendations.75 ENERGY SECURITY 6.Electricity.77 IEA.CC BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 Overview.77 Electricity supply and dem
8、and.78 Transmission and distribution.80 Cross-border interconnections.81 Market structure and regulation.81 Electricity security and emergency response.87 Assessment.90 Recommendations.95 7.Coal.97 Overview.97 Coal production and supply.98 Coal demand.100 Coal demand and supply outlook.101 Coal tran
9、sitions.101 Coal policies.102 Assessment.105 Recommendations.107 8.Natural gas.109 Overview.109 Supply and demand.110 Gas infrastructure.114 Gas market structure.117 Gas policy.119 Assessment.121 Recommendations.124 9.Oil.125 Overview.125 Supply and demand.126 Prices and taxation.135 Oil security.13
10、6 Assessment.137 Recommendations.140 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION 10.Energy research,development and innovation.141 Overview.141 Strategies and priorities for energy research,development and innovation.142 A.Public funding for energy RD&D and innovation.143 IEA.CC BY 4.0.5 TABLE OF CONTENTS B.Knowle
11、dge management.144 C.Public support for business innovation and market creation.145 D.Monitoring and evaluation.145 Special focus:Hydrogen.146 Assessment.148 Recommendations.151 ANNEXES ANNEX A:Review team and supporting stakeholders.153 Review criteria.153 Review team and preparation of the report.
12、153 ANNEX B:Key statistical data and notes.155 Footnotes to key statistical data.158 Statistical notes for data used in the report.158 ANNEX C:International Energy Agency“Shared Goals”.159 ANNEX D:Glossary and list of abbreviations.161 Acronyms and abbreviations.161 Units of measure.162 LIST OF FIGU
13、RES,TABLES AND BOXES Figures Figure 2.2 Energy production by source in Colombia,2005-2021.15 Figure 2.3 Total energy supply by source in Colombia,2005-2021.16 Figure 2.4 Colombias total energy supply and total final consumption,2021.16 Figure 2.5 Total final consumption by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021
14、.17 Figure 2.6 Energy demand and electricity generation by fuel in Colombia,2021.17 Figure 2.7 Principles for just energy transitions.19 Figure 3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in Colombia,1990-2018 and targets.28 Figure 3.2 Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.28 Figur
15、e 3.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021.29 Figure 3.4 Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers in Colombia,2000-2021.30 Figure 3.5 Global milestones under the IEA Net Zero Emissions Roadmap.35 Figure 4.1 Energy demand and drivers in Colombia,2000-2021.49 Figure 4.2 Tota
16、l final consumption by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.50 Figure 4.3 Total final consumption in industry by source in Colombia,2005-2021.51 Figure 4.4 Total final consumption in buildings by source in Colombia,2005-2021.53 Figure 4.5 Total final consumption in transport by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021.55
17、 Figure 4.6 Newly registered electric vehicles in Colombia each year,2012-2022.55 Figure 5.1 Renewables in total final energy consumption in Colombia,2005-2021.64 Figure 5.2 Renewable energy by sector in Colombia,2021.64 Figure 5.3 Renewables in electricity generation in Colombia,2005-2021.65 IEA.CC
18、 BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 Figure 5.4 Colombias renewable capacity additions,2020-2027(left)and installed renewable capacity in IEA forecast vs.National Energy Plan(right).67 Figure 5.5 Outlook for electricity generation by source in Colombia,2020-2050.68 Figure 5.6 Renewables in transport in Colom
19、bia,2005-2021.71 Figure 6.1 Electricity generation by source in Colombia,2005-2021.79 Figure 6.2 Electricity demand by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.79 Figure 6.3 Colombias electricity network.80 Figure 6.4 Regulatory governance of Colombias electricity market.84 Figure 6.5 Monthly water inflows of C
20、olombia,in%change from historic medium.87 Figure 6.6 Spot price versus scarcity price in Colombia,2007-2022.88 Figure 6.7 Firm energy balance by technology in Colombia,2023-2028.89 Figure 7.1 Share of coal the energy system in Colombia,2005-2021.98 Figure 7.2 Coal balance in Colombia,2005-2021.99 Fi
21、gure 7.3 Coal exports by type of coal in Colombia,2021.100 Figure 7.4 Coal demand by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.100 Figure 7.5 The IEA Coal Transitions Exposure Index.101 Figure 8.1 Natural gas consumption and production in Colombia,2000-2021.110 Figure 8.2 Shares of natural gas in the Colombian e
22、nergy system,2005-2021.110 Figure 8.3 Natural Gas reserves in Colombia.111 Figure 8.4 Production of natural gas in Colombia,2010-2020.112 Figure 8.5 Colombias imports and exports of natural gas,2007-2021.113 Figure 8.6 Natural gas final consumption by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.114 Figure 8.7 Gas
23、infrastructure in Colombia.115 Figure 9.1 Shares of oil in the energy system of Colombia,2005-2021.126 Figure 9.2 Crude oil production and oil demand outlook in Colombia,2005-2028.127 Figure 9.3 Oil products production in Colombia,2005-2021.127 Figure 9.4 Oil products net trade in Colombia,2005-2021
24、.128 Figure 9.5 Oil demand by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.129 Figure 9.6 Oil demand by product in Colombia,2021.130 Figure 9.7 Oil Infrastructure in Colombia.133 Figure 10.1 The IEAs four functions of a successful innovation ecosystem for energy 142 Tables Table 2.1 Energy subsidies and contributio
25、ns by strata,2018,in COP million.21 Table 3.1 Overview of Colombias climate mitigation measures and their potential.31 Table 3.2 Colombias greenhouse gas mitigation targets by sector.32 Table 3.3 Carbon tax rates in Colombia,1 February 2023.36 Table 4.1 Colombias energy savings targets by 2030.51 Ta
26、ble 6.1 Installed generating capacity in Colombia 2021(MW).78 Table 6.2 Concentration in Colombias wholesale electricity generation.85 Table 9.1 Crude oil and oil product storage capacity in Colombia.134 Table 9.2 Oil product storage capacity in Colombia.135 Table 10.1.Low-emission hydrogen producti
27、on projects in Colombia.148 Box Box 6.1 The Energy Transformation Mission.83 IEA.CC BY 4.0.7 ENERGY INSIGHTS 1.Executive summary Colombia has emerged as a leader in clean energy transition policy making and is an inspiring example of a fossil fuel producing country committed to climate action,based
28、on a long-term decarbonisation pathway and a policy of energy and economic diversification and a just transition.In the context of the National Energy Plan 2020-2050,launched in 2016,Colombia started a journey to diversify its energy resources and ensure a reliable energy supply by promoting wind,so
29、lar and geothermal in the countrys electricity mix.At COP26,Colombia presented a net zero target and an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution(NDC),aiming at a 51%reduction in greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions by 2030.These ambitions are reflected in the long-term strategy,the E2050 Strategy,the En
30、ergy Transition Law and the Climate Action Law.To implement its targets,Colombia uses a robust system of climate change management plans across government with targets assigned to each sector,including for energy(PIGCCme).The Energy Transition Law expanded policy actions and tax benefits to energy e
31、fficiency and low-carbon energy technologies,including geothermal,carbon capture and storage(CCS),and hydrogen.Colombias national oil company,Ecopetrol(Empresa Colombiana de Petroleos),is supporting the shift to low-carbon energy with investment plans for clean energy technology.In 2023,Colombias en
32、ergy transition policy is at another crucial turning point,as the government targets the gradual shift to net zero,shifting away from an extractive industry model heavily dependent on oil and coal exports towards a more diversified clean energy economy based on investments in renewable energy source
33、s,critical minerals and hydrogen.Colombia enjoys a strong natural resource base.Renewables accounted for more than a third of total final energy consumption in 2020,thanks to the significant role of conventional hydropower and bioenergy.In 2021,renewable energy accounted for 25%of Colombias total en
34、ergy supply and for 29%of final consumption,substantially above the IEA average of 14%and made up 75%of electricity generation(compared to the IEA average of 30%).The government continues to expand non-conventional renewable energy,largely through long-term auctions for large-scale solar and wind de
35、velopments.Extensive renewables potential in the La Guajira region should help advance rural electrification and close the energy access gap.Concentrated in the northern regions,which has a 50 gigawatt(GW)offshore wind potential,renewables can also provide the clean energy needed to jump-start Colom
36、bias hydrogen production.Colombias geothermal development also enjoys substantial potential along the Pacific ring of fire.In 2023,work is under way on updating the National Energy Plan(PEN)towards 2050,in line with Colombias new National Development Plan 2022-2026(PND)and energy and IEA.CC BY 4.0.1
37、.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 climate goals towards decarbonisation.The new PEN is an opportunity to build greater coherence of policy planning and set clear energy efficiency and clean energy technology targets for 2030.Based on the different long-term energy scenarios for the energy sector,the PEN should c
38、onfirm the possible targets and investment needed for the technology shift towards a more digital,decentralised and decarbonised energy sector as an enabler of broader sustainable development.The PEN should also identify the needed investments in energy research,development and innovation in Colombi
39、a.Greater competition in energy markets is important to attract needed investments.Ecopetrol continues to account for two-thirds of the activity in the oil and gas sector.Colombian energy market design and policy have followed a fundamentally market-driven approach since the mid-1990s,when the power
40、 sector was unbundled and opened to private investment.However,market power persists in the electricity sector due to the integration of generation and retail.Power system planning,new grids and regulation will be required to accompany the shift from todays hydro-dominated power market to a more fle
41、xible and diverse market design.An initial auction for battery storage was successful to optimise the use of the transmission grid.Colombia has a largely decarbonised power sector thanks to the significant role of hydropower and bioenergy.Electricity demand is expected to increase as a result of eco
42、nomic growth and the electrification of end-use sectors,an opportunity to decarbonise the transport sector over time.A stronger focus on energy efficiency is needed to reduce emissions and support affordable clean energy.A diversified mix of generation technologies will emerge and opportunities for
43、efficiency need to be harvested.Clarity is also needed on the targets and policies for different new clean energy technologies,for example the deployment of CCS and geothermal,in line with long-term plans.Technology road maps for these areas would provide clarity for policy actions.Clarifying respon
44、sibilities and consistently applying them in planning documents,especially in energy efficiency,where responsibilities are widely dispersed would improve implementation.Colombias high degree of income inequality influences energy policy making.Despite recent progress,in 2021,3%of the population did
45、not have access to electricity.Colombia still has 1 million families,or 6%of households,relying on firewood for cooking,lacking access to modern cooking fuels.Around 45%of the countrys population lives under the poverty line.This is most evident for La Guajira,where indigenous groups make up 42%of t
46、he total population.Over time,the government has developed energy pricing and subsidy mechanisms covering gasoline and diesel,electricity,natural gas,and liquefied petroleum gas(LPG).These arrangements need to be structured to avoid discouraging energy efficiency while boosting the uptake of clean e
47、nergy and targeting the needs of vulnerable groups.When preparing the PND in 2022,the government placed a strong focus on engaging the entire society in the countrys energy transition to generate consensus.This is critical to translate policy goals into support for infrastructure projects on the gro
48、und,ensure social justice and support vulnerable communities.The IEA supports Colombias agenda for a just energy transition.Experience from the IEAs Global Commission on People-Centred Transitions provides useful learnings for the government of Colombia,helping to boost local economic benefits and t
49、he transition to clean energy and new job opportunities.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY9 ENERGY INSIGHTS These include suggestions on job development and skills shifts,notably for employment in fossil sectors,and the range of new jobs in such future industries as renewables,hydrogen and critical m
50、inerals.Colombias transition will involve ramping up investments in clean energy while compensating for declining oil/gas/coal export revenues.The oil sector has contributed an annual average of close to 2%of gross domestic product(GDP)and 13%of the total income of the national government in the las
51、t ten years,from tax revenues,dividends and royalties.The governments reliance on this income will have to be taken into account in elaborating transition pathways for the hydrocarbon sector.Drawing on the experience of clean energy transition leaders such as Norway,it will be critical to communicat
52、e the role of oil rents to be used to support investments in the clean energy transition.The government aims to create a fund from fossil fuel sector royalties and taxes to finance clean energy initiatives.Colombia has extensive reserves of copper,nickel and cobalt,all critical to the global energy
53、transition.Colombia can build on its well-established mining sector to diversify into new minerals.To reap this potential,mining activities must adhere to high environmental,social and governance standards and generate tangible benefits for affected local communities.Security of supply should be a p
54、riority for the government during the transition.Continued attention is needed to ensure the resilience of the countrys electricity and natural gas/oil supplies,including during periods of seasonal droughts and in isolated areas.Colombias hydropower has low runoff storage capacity but good flexibili
55、ty for balancing higher shares of variable renewables.There is high interannual variability from extreme weather events(droughts or rainfall).Availability needs to be ensured with sufficient dispatchable capacity.Key recommendations The government of Colombia should:Define the general vision for Col
56、ombias energy transition policy and set out practicalactions needed to reconcile the affordable and secure energy growth required tosupport Colombias economic development with its net zero emissions target.Ensure consistency in policies,targets and ambitions contained in the various laws,decrees,pla
57、ns and sectoral policy plans for energy and climate change,and trackprogress of the milestones in Colombias energy transition.Set out a medium-to long-term energy security road map,defining specific actions forsecuring oil,gas,electricity and the critical minerals needed for the countrys energytrans
58、ition.Develop a people-centred transition strategy together with Colombias territories andindustry,building on existing initiatives.This would include social guidelines;retrainingprogrammes;and supporting access to energy,employment and economicdevelopment opportunities arising from clean energy dep
59、loyment at the local level.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY10 Improve engagement and co-operation among national,regional and territorialgovernment departments and the private sector to ensure that local communitiesreceive tangible economic and social benefits from the expansion of essentialenergy-
60、related projects in their locations.IEA.CC BY 4.0.11 ENERGY INSIGHTS 2.General energy policy Key data(2021)Total energy supply(TES):1 775 PJ(oil 45.4%,natural gas 22.4%,bioenergy and waste 12.5%,hydro 12.3%,coal 7.2%,solar 0.1%),+35%since 2011 TES per capita:35.5 GJ/capita(IEA average:166.7 GJ/capit
61、a)+21%since 2011 TES per unit of GDP:2.497 MJ per USD PPP,+1.5%since 2011(IEA average:3.737 MJ per USD PPP)Energy production:4 105 PJ(oil 40.5%,coal 39.1%,natural gas 9.7%,bioenergy and waste 5.4%,hydro 5.3%,solar 0.03%),-21%since 2011 Total final consumption(TFC):1 319 PJ(39.5%transport,35.5%indust
62、ry,25.1%buildings)Colombian peso(COP):COP 1 000=USD 0.27=EUR 0.24(5 April 2022)Country overview Colombia has maritime borders in the north with the Caribbean Sea and in the west with the Pacific Ocean.Its main neighbours include Panama in the north-west,Ecuador and Peru in the south,and the Bolivari
63、an Republic of Venezuela and Brazil in the east and south-east.In 2020,Colombia had a population of 49 million,20%of which live in Bogota,the capital.Population growth has slowed down to 1.1%per year(OECD).Spanish is the official language along with over 70 indigenous languages.Colombias geography i
64、s diverse,with small islands along the coasts of the North Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea;areas located in the ring of fire,with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions;the Amazon Rainforest region shared with Brazil,Ecuador,Peru and Venezuela;and the Andes mountains in the interior.Economy From 201
65、5 to 2019,GDP grew annually by 2-3%(+3.3%in 2019).However,it dropped by 6.8%in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.Revenues from the production and export of oil,gas and coal remain important for the countrys GDP.The oil sector has contributed an annual average of close to 2%of GDP and 13%of total gov
66、ernment revenue in the last ten years from tax revenues,dividends and royalties.Almost 90%of Colombias coal production is exported,securing a large part of the state budget.Due to Covid-19,investment in the oil/gas sectors fell to the lowest level in history.The economic recovery plan“New Compromise
67、 for Colombia”and major privatisations led the economy to recover at a rate of 10%during the second half of 2020 and throughout 2021,supported by a significant fiscal response from the government.The OECD projects GDP IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 12 growth to recover and to grow by 6.1%in 2
68、022 and 2.1%in 2023(OECD,2022),thanks to increasing private consumption and growing employment.Political system Colombia is a presidential republic under the Constitution of 1991.The president,Gustavo Petro,was elected in June 2022 and officially inaugurated in August 2022.The Minister of Mines and
69、Energy is Omar Andrs Camacho Morales.As a result of growing decentralisation since the 1980s,today,the administrative structure of the country builds on the national government and territorial entities:32 regional departments(and Capital District of Bogota);districts;around 1 100 municipalities,with
70、 the mayors with an important role;and indigenous territories.In the dual system of decentralised and delegated responsibilities,the majority of competences are shared between all levels of government.The 1991 Constitution gives a special status to the 817 indigenous territories,home to 1.4 million
71、inhabitants,and six metropolitan areas.Over the past decades,the authority of the national government has been challenged by rebel and paramilitary groups control over areas,notably remote regions.Colombia is a member of the United Nations,the World Trade Organization,the Organization of American St
72、ates,the Pacific Alliance,the Andean Community,and a global partner of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization since 2017.Colombia became a member of the OECD in April 2020 and started the process of accession to the IEA in 2021.Political priorities The political priorities of the Petro government ev
73、olve around the shift towards a new economic model based on climate and social justice and the protection of vulnerable communities.President Petro has pledged a“gradual phase down of the extractive industry model”by halting any new mining and oil/gas exploration concessions and shifting away from o
74、il and coal dependency in terms of exports and budget revenues.Existing exploration licenses will remain effective and the government aims to improve oil and gas production from existing fields.The president proposed that the fiscal shortfall resulting from the phase down of the extractive industrie
75、s be compensated by promoting the tourism and agricultural sectors.To diversify the mining industry,Petros programme supports the production of hydrogen and critical minerals as part of the countrys energy transition.President Petro proposed creating a fund that would use royalties and taxes from th
76、e fossil fuel sector to finance clean energy initiatives.The government also prioritises continued support for further integrating non-conventional renewable energy sources,working with indigenous groups for investment in large-scale solar and wind developments and ensuring that benefits accrue to l
77、ocal communities to improve livelihoods and jobs.The National Development Plan(PND)2022-2026 announced a strategy for jobs from the energy transition.President Petro has also pledged to advance rural electrification to close the energy access gap.Over the next 15 years,NOC Ecopetrol is expected to p
78、lay a pivotal role in shifting the country to a low-carbon economy,with a strong role in research,science and technology development for clean energy.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 13 ENERGY INSIGHTS Main energy policy institutions The National Planning Department(Departamento Nacional de Pla
79、neacin,DNP)promotes a strategic vision of the country in terms of social,economic and environmental outcomes through the guidelines for and evaluation of public policies,national development plans and programmes,the management and allocation of public funding,as well as the definition of frameworks
80、for the performance of the private sector.Under the DNP operates the National Council on Economic and Social Policy(Consejo Nacional de Poltica Econmica y Social,CONPES).CONPES is chaired by the president and composed of all ministers and the DNP director.CONPES is the highest national planning auth
81、ority and serves as an advisory body to the government in all aspects related to the economic and social development of the country.It issues reports and general policy guidelines for the government,such as inputs to the National Development Plan.The Ministry of Mines and Energy(Minenergia,MME)is in
82、 charge of energy policy across mining,electricity and gas,and other energy sectors.The entities attached to the MME are the National Agency of Hydrocarbons,the National Mining Agency,the Mining and Energy Planning Unit,the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission,the Institute for Planning and Promotio
83、n of Energy Solutions for Non-Interconnected Zones,and the Colombian Geological Survey,which are described below.The Mining and Energy Planning Unit(Unidad de Planeacin Minero Energtica,UPME)supports the policy-making process through energy data and analysis and the planning of mining and energy res
84、ources(electricity,coal,gas,oil,etc.).The UPME works with energy sector stakeholders and produces and disseminates information,including monthly and annual supply/demand data and projections.UPME prepares the National Energy Plan 2020-2050.The National Agency of Hydrocarbons(Agencia Nacional de Hidr
85、ocarburos,ANH)was created after the restructuring of Colombias oil and gas industry in 2003 and is a key pillar of national energy security.Ecopetrols regulatory tasks for oil/gas upstream contracts were transferred to the ANH,which today administers Colombias hydrocarbon reserves and resources(thro
86、ugh contracts,agreements and royalties,allocation of production areas),including their optimal and environmentally safe use.The National Mining Agency(Agencia Nacional de Minera,ANM)manages the mineral resources(coal and critical minerals)owned by the state,with a view to promote their optimal,envir
87、onmentally sustainable and safe use.The ANM also co-ordinates the National Mining Rescue System.The Colombian Geological Survey(Servicio Geolgico Colombiano)supports the ANH and the ANM by surveying and mapping the subsoil,establishing areas with mining and hydrocarbon potential,and providing techni
88、cal and scientific support to the sector.The Institute for Planning and Promotion of Energy Solutions for Non-Interconnected Zones(Instituto de Planificacin y Promocin de Soluciones Energticas para las Zonas No Interconectadas)supports local energy technology solutions to support off-grid rural comm
89、unities with universal access to energy.The Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission(Comisin de Regulacin de Energa y Gas,CREG)is part of the MME and regulates wholesale and retail markets and the public IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 14 utilities for electricity,natural gas,LPG and liquid fuels
90、with a mandate to ensure service reliability and competition,through measures to prevent abuse of dominant position.The CREG adopts the methodologies for calculating electricity and gas tariffs(or oversees tariff setting by discoms)and for the rates and margins for liquid fuels(except producer reven
91、ues).CREG does not have legal status but administrative,technical and financial autonomy under MME.The Superintendence of Public Utilities(Superintendencia Servicios Pblicos Domiciliarios)oversees the Colombian power market and is in charge of enforcing and supervising regulations.XM is the pool mar
92、ket operator for electricity;it also runs the National Dispatch Center.XM is fully controlled by the transmission company ISA which,in turn,is government owned.In 2021,Ecopetrol(88.49%state-owned)signed an agreement with the Colombian Ministry of Finance and Public Credit to acquire the 51.4%state-o
93、wned stake in ISA.The UPME is in charge of transmission and generation planning for the interconnected zone and the wholesale energy market.The national operation councils for gas and power ensure the safe technical system operation.The Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development(Ministe
94、rio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible,MADS)guides policies and regulations for the protection of the environment and natural resources.The National Environmental Licensing Agency(Autoridad Nacional de Licencias Ambientales)ensures that energy projects comply with environmental regulations and sust
95、ainable development through environmental licensing and permitting.Biofuels policy is set by an inter-sectoral commission of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development;the Ministry of Transportation;the Ministry of Commerce,Industry and Tourism;the director of the DNP;the MADS;and the MME.The
96、 Institute of Hydrology,Meteorology and Environmental Studies(Instituto de Hidrologa,Meteorologa y Estudios Ambientales)manages the National Information System on Climate Change.In 2016,Colombia created the national climate change governance(SISCLIMA),headed by an Intersectoral Council on Climate Ch
97、ange,which consists of seven bodies(MADS;the MME;the DNP;the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management;and the Institute of Hydrology,Meteorology and Environmental Studies)and nine climate change regional nodes.The 2018 Law on Climate Change made the SISCLIMA with the National Council on Climate Ch
98、ange and Adaptation a permanent consultative body,including representatives of academia,government and civil society.Energy supply and demand Colombia is an oil and coal net exporting country.In 2021,Colombia exported 59%of its domestic energy production(Figure 2.1).Energy production in Colombia is
99、dominated by fossil fuels and mainly directed to exports.In 2021,fossil fuels accounted for 89%of total production(3 578 petajoules PJ),mostly consisting of oil(41%),coal(38%)and natural gas(10%).Fossil fuels accounted for 71%of total energy supply(TES).Oil was the largest energy source of TES in 20
100、21(39.7%),followed by natural gas(24.9%).TES also consists of significant shares of renewable energy sources,mostly bioenergy and waste(16%)as well as hydro(13%)and a small share of solar and wind(0.1%).Coal accounts for 6.3%.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 15 ENERGY INSIGHTS Figure 2.1 Overvi
101、ew of energy production and supply in Colombia,2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Colombia exports a large share of the energy it produces,mainly oil and coal.*Other renewables include hydro,wind and solar.Source:IEA(2023).Energy production and supply Total energy production increased steadily and peaked in 2014(5
102、610 PJ),with coal production at its highest level in 2017(2 604 PJ),oil in 2013(2 208 PJ)and natural gas in 2019(438 PJ).In 2020,total energy production dropped by 24%compared to 2019.Figure 2.2 Energy production by source in Colombia,2005-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Colombias energy production consists of o
103、il(41%),coal(39%)and natural gas(9.7%).Source:IEA(2023).As a result of the global crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic,coal production decreased by 41%from 2019 to 2021,following mine closures due to lockdowns and industrial action.Oil and gas production was less affected by the pandemic.Betwee
104、n 2005 and 2012,Colombias TES rose from 1 141 PJ to 1 276 PJ with a sharp increase to 1 671 PJ in 2013,driven by an increased supply of fossil fuels(Figure 2.3).TES rose to a record high in 2019(to 1 792 PJ)but dropped by 1%in 2021(1 774 PJ).0 5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 500ProductionTot
105、al energy supplyPJOtherrenewables*Bioenergy andwasteNatural gasOilCoalExports01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 000PJHydroBioenergy andwasteNatural gasOilCoalIEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 16 Figure 2.3 Total energy supply by source in Colombia,2005-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Since 2013,Colombias TES has in
106、creased with a rising supply and exports of fossil fuels.*Figures for solar and wind(1.4 PJ in 2021)and electricity imports(0.4 PJ)are not visible on this chart.Source:IEA(2023).Energy demand In 2021,Colombias total final consumption(TFC)was 1 319 PJ.Fossil fuels represented 67%of TFC,with oil being
107、 the first energy source(49%),followed by natural gas(11%)and coal(7.1%).Electricity(mostly hydro power)was the second-most consumed energy source,contributing 19%in TFC,followed by biofuels and waste(14%).Figure 2.4 Colombias total energy supply and total final consumption,2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Transp
108、ort and industry activities drive Colombias total final consumption.*Other renewables include hydro,wind and solar.Total final consumption(TFC)includes non-energy use.Source:IEA(2023).Transport accounted for the largest share of TFC(39.5%),followed by industry(35.5%)and buildings consumption(25.1%).
109、TFC increased moderately between 2005 and 2015,from 893 PJ to 1 234 PJ(Figure 2.5).As of 2011,growth accelerated,reaching 1 276 PJ in 2019.In 2013,Colombia experienced its largest year-on-year increase of TFC,mostly due to a significant increase of bioenergy consumption(from 148 PJ to 231 PJ in one
110、0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 4001 6001 800PJSolar and wind*Electricity imports*HydroBioenergy and wasteNatural gasCoalOil 0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 4001 6001 800Total energy supplyTFC(by fuel)TFC(by sector)PJOtherrenewables*ElectricityBiofuels andwasteNatural gasOilCoalTransformations and lossesI
111、ndustryTransportBuildingsIEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 17 ENERGY INSIGHTS year).Such an increase was the result of the rapid development of bioethanol from sugar cane crops and biodiesel(Fedebiocombustibles,2021).Figure 2.5 Total final consumption by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.
112、Colombias total final consumption has experienced a rapid increase since 2011,with significant growth in bioenergy consumption since 2013.Source:IEA(2023).Industry relies on fossil fuels,with oil as the main energy source.Buildings rely on electricity and biomass,and together with industry account f
113、or 72%.Transport is dominated by oil(90%).Colombia has a highly decarbonised electricity mix thanks to abundant hydropower(72%).Natural gas is the second source of electricity(16%),followed by coal(5.3%),biofuels(2.7%),oil(1.9%),solar(0.4%)and wind(0.1%).Figure 2.6 Energy demand and electricity gene
114、ration by fuel in Colombia,2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The energy consumption mix varies greatly across sectors.Hydropower accounts for 72%of Colombias electricity generation.Biomass and electricity drive consumption in buildings.Source:IEA(2023).0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 400PJElectricityBioenergy andwast
115、eNatural gasCoalOil0 100 200 300 400 500 600IndustryBuildings TransportHydroElectricitySolarWindBioenergy and wasteCoalNatural gasOilEnergy demandPJWindSolarOilBioenergy and wasteCoalNatural gasHydro0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70TWhElectricity generationIEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 18 Energy strate
116、gies and targets National Development Plan Colombias energy strategy is aligned with the sustainable development agenda of the nation.The latest National Development Plan(PND)for the period 2022-2026,under the theme of“Colombia,World Power of Life(Colombia Potencia Mundial de la Vida)”,was presented
117、 in November 2022 for a country-wide consultation process with Congress,the unions and civil society,including binding regional dialogues across the national territory.The PND supports five socio-economic transformations:1)territorial planning in line with the availability of water;2)human security
118、and social justice,3)human right to food,4)productive transformation,internationalisation and climate action and 5)regional convergence.The implementing PND law was adopted in May 2023(GoC,2023).The PND sets priorities for investments in the countrys energy transition under the dedicated pillar on P
119、roductive transformation,internationalisation and climate action with the following priorities:diversification of exports(a targeted share of 56.3%to come from non-mining exports),reindustrialisation and technology investment(with a targeted share of 0.5%in the GDP dedicated to research and developm
120、ent),the promotion of new mechanisms for the generation of 2 GW of non-conventional renewables,sustainable transportation,a 20%reduction of deforestation,and the restauration of the countrys ecosystems.Over the past decade,Colombias energy transition policy was shaped by the PND 2018-2022,PEN 2050,e
121、lectricity generation and transmission expansion plans,the countrys long-term development strategy(E2050 Colombia),the Energy Transition Law(2099/2021),the Climate Action Law(2169/2021)and sectoral climate change management plans(so-called PIGCC),including for the energy sector(PIGCCme).Energy trans
122、ition laws Law 1715 of 2014 laid the ground for the promotion of non-conventional renewable energy and energy efficiency projects,mainly through tax incentives and benefits.This regulation was complemented by Law 1955 of 2019(PND 2018-2022),which increased existing tax benefits and created an obliga
123、tion for energy utilities to buy at least 10%of their total power purchase from non-conventional renewables.In July 2021,the Energy Transition Law(2099/2021)expanded actions and tax benefits for a broad range of energy efficiency and low-carbon energy technologies,including geothermal,CCS and hydrog
124、en.The law also created a new fund the Fondo nico de Soluciones Energticas,or FONENERGIA to improve quality of supply and energy access.Just energy transition road map Colombia is pursuing a reindustrialisation policy with the aim to shift from an extraction economy to a productive and sustainable k
125、nowledge economy.In parallel to the elaboration of the PND,the government is preparing a national just energy transition road map.The road map will set out the actions needed to achieve energy access for all,a fair and just transition,engaging the regions and citizens in the energy transition,and ex
126、pand its economic benefits,including by supporting the creation of energy communities.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 19 ENERGY INSIGHTS Colombias road map confirms that the transition will be gradual and rely on a broad portfolio of energy sources,including solar photovoltaics(PV),wind,geothe
127、rmal,bioenergy,hydrogen and others.It will be knowledge-intensive and be based on reskilling and training,to prepare and educate the country and professionals.A new Colombian Energy Institute will be created to support training,reskilling and analysis of the energy transition.In 2021,the IEA Global
128、Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions adopted a set of actionable recommendations for governments,industry and citizens by drawing on recent experiences and best practices from around the world(IEA,2021).Figure 2.7 Principles for just energy transitions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA(2021)
129、.Drawing on the work of the IEA Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions,several best practices could be of interest to Colombia as the government develops the just energy transition road map.The United States has introduced new geothermal tax credits under the Inflation Reductio
130、n Act,focused on energy communities(defined as those that have typically depended on coal/fossil fuels for economic activity).The Spanish government is using just transition agreements between government,companies and labour councils to provide for a range of investment and strategic development at
131、the regional level.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 20 Poland is undertaking intensive engagement with coal regions to create regional plans to direct investment in coal communities to support the transition,in line with the governments social dialogue with unions and coal companies and subsequ
132、ent agreement to phase out coal mining by 2049.Brazil has used biomass gasification to expand electricity access in rural areas,and the RevoluSolar,a community-based organisation,to install solar panels in favelas and trains residents as electricians or entrepreneurs.Indonesia supports micro hydropo
133、wer plants to expand energy access in Indonesia.Universal energy access Colombia is highly urbanised,with 75%of the 11.5 million households living in urban areas.Thanks to rapid economic growth,today it is an upper middle-income country.But growth is not evenly shared;over 45%of the population lives
134、 below the national poverty line.In 2021,3%of Colombias population,or 500 000 users,did not have access to electricity and 1 million families used wood for their heating and cooking needs.By 2030,the government aims to half this lack of coverage:100 000 families shall be connected per year and 200 0
135、00 families provided with clean cooking.Under the PND 2018-2022,the government proposed to reach 100 000 new users by 2022.Progress towards the target was good.By March 2022,73 046 new users had gained access to electricity,and of these,26 899 through solar PV.There is no consolidated national subsi
136、dy programme in place for clean cooking;efforts are scattered and driven by international aid programmes,notably by the United States Agency for International Development(GACC,2021).The new PND 2022-2026 reiterates the governments commitment to achieving universal access to clean energy.It aims at e
137、nhancing community-owned energy projects and deploying a clean cooking programme to substitute firewood.Since the National Rural Electrification Plan of 2017,the government has been working to offer energy solutions to users either by connecting them to the electricity interconnected system or throu
138、gh self-generation,with a range of funding programmes,which were consolidated in the FONENERGIA(Law 2099 of 10 July 2021).The Social Energy Fund has played a key role in financing universal access,largely financed(80%)from the congestion income of the market operator,XM.This fund guarantees up to CO
139、P 46 per kilowatt hour(kWh)of the value of electricity used for residential users(strata 1 and 2 of rural areas of low development and low-income neighbourhoods).Since 2021,the value of these subsidies averaged COP 13-18 billion.The Solidarity Fund for Subsidies and Income Redistribution also suppor
140、ted low-income users,with resources from the national budget to cover the subsidies for the public electricity service to lower income users.The Financial Support Fund for the Energisation of Interconnected Rural Areas allows the territorial entities,with the support of the electricity service provi
141、ders,to support investment in new electricity infrastructure.The Financial Support Fund for the Energisation of Non-Interconnected Zones finances investment in energy infrastructure in non-interconnected zones.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 21 ENERGY INSIGHTS In 2021,the government introduced
142、 a pilot programme for subsidising the consumption of LPG cylinders with programmes to replace firewood,coal,waste,kerosene,ethanol and diesel use(Law 2128,MME Resolution 40342/2021).With limited fiscal space,the government relies on leveraging private investment,notably for investment in smart grid
143、s which can be included in the tariffs charged by network operators.This offers also co-benefits for the economic local development in rural areas.The government plans large-scale renewables and green hydrogen deployment,which are expected to generate USD 2.5 billion in investment and 400 000 jobs.T
144、he dedicated Fund for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency(Fondo de Energas No Convencionales y Gestin Eficiente de la Energa,FENOGE)is the main support programme in energy efficiency(including cash transfers)and unconventional energy sources,financing research,studies,energy audits,modernisation,
145、and final disposal of replacement of equipment.Energy subsidies The government subsidised energy consumption for a total of USD 564 million in 2018 based on a national housing classification system(so-called strata)1.Sixty per cent of the subsidy is allocated to residential users(strata 1),50%to str
146、ata 2 and 15%to strata 3.The subsidy is paid by commercial users(strata 5 and 6)who pay a 20%electricity surcharge as contributions.Table 2.1 Energy subsidies and contributions by strata,2018,in COP million Strata 1 Strata 2 Strata 3 Irrigation districts Total subsidies No.of users 3 929 877 4 580 1
147、66 2 666 078 581 11 176 703 Subsidy/contribution 1 306 332 1 196 864 234 673 18 971 2 756 840 Strata 5 Strata 6 Commercial and others Total contributions No.of users 373 441 216 923 1 072 407 1 662 772 Subsidy/contribution 75 869 67 604 1 027 562 1 171 035 Sources:Ministry of Mines and Energy,Minist
148、ry of Finance.The Covid-19 pandemic led to increased support for the production and consumption of fossil fuels.Despite the collapse of the global oil price in April 2020,subsidies increased in 2020 in Colombia.These include the 10%increase in natural gas subsidies for users of strata 1 and 2.Strata
149、 1 users will increase to 70%,while strata 2 will increase to 60%for an additional billing cycle.Direct government transfers to reduce fuel prices decreased the 1 The national classification identifies groups with similar socioeconomic characteristics for the strata composition.Housing characteristi
150、cs,such as a garage,a front yard,and quality of the neighborhood,are the main criteria used for defining strata in Colombia.Depending on the diversity and quality of housing,there could be six strata:level one is lower-low,two is low,three is upper-low,four is medium,five is medium-high,and six is h
151、igh.Most cities have all six,but there are towns that have only three.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 22 price of gasoline by COP 1 200(-13%),from an average price of COP 9 159 per gallon to COP 7 958 per gallon;diesel decreased by COP 800(-9%)from an average of COP 8 952 per gallon to COP 8 1
152、52 per gallon(OECD/IEA,2021).From 2020 to 2022,the government allocated USD 1.11 billion in support of oil and gas consumption and production(not the coal sector)through a range of regulatory roll-backs and easing of procedures in the hydrocarbon sector alongside tax refunds.The main public funding
153、commitments included USD 373.77 million for fossil fuel consumption,through increased income support for electricity and gas consumers,economic aid to retail fuel distributors,and support to permitting of oil/gas/mining infrastructure projects through reduced royalty payments.Ecopetrols new investme
154、nts in the Barrancabermeja refinery of USD 730.75 million also aim to improve the reliability of the water segregation system and the SOx emissions control.This compares with the clean energy investment,including:USD 4.41 million for clean energy through tax incentives for non-conventional renewable
155、 energies(solar,wind).USD 31.8 million for investment in electrical networks in the departments of Magdalena,Meta,Atlntico,Arauca and La Guajira.USD 881 million of investments mobilised by the state in the auction of 26 October 2021 for 11 solar projects(800 megawatts MW and 4 800 green jobs).Energy
156、 data and statistics The UPME is responsible for energy data for planning purposes.It is a special technical administrative unit attached to the MME,with its own legal status,assets and budgetary autonomy,subject to a special procurement regime.The UPME interacts frequently with other institutions a
157、nd governmental bodies.Colombia joined the OECD on 28 April 2020 and is currently an IEA accession country.As such,it has energy data reporting requirements to fulfil and will have additional ones once it becomes a member of the IEA.In terms of energy data submitted to the IEA,the UPME uses data tha
158、t are already made available to other institutions and the general public.It does not have the ability to request data directly from the companies or users.The legislative landscape for collecting and publishing energy data is complex,with diverse specifications depending on the area covered(fuel or
159、 sector).In addition,there is no legislation allowing for the collection of emergency data in an oil supply disruption setting(this particular item is being discussed as part of the IEA accession process).The National Administrative Department of Statistics(Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Es
160、tadstica)is the only institution that has the legal authority to request any type of data from any member of society for the purpose of producing official statistics.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 23 ENERGY INSIGHTS Energy data collection and analysis are currently scattered among several dif
161、ferent institutions and not all inter-institutional exchanges of information are handled through formalised agreements.There is no centralised system to make energy data available in a harmonised manner.With the support of the Intern-American Development Bank,the administration is currently working
162、on a project,Intgrame,a data portal that supports the integration and interoperability of data and analysis for the energy and mining sector in Colombia.The portal will provide centralised access to different users.The scope of Intgrame will be adapted to the needs of the MME.Assessment For two deca
163、des,the energy transition has been a stated policy goal for Colombia and the country has made progress towards achieving it.It has also a very good resource endowment:Colombia has abundant natural renewable energy sources,a highly decarbonised electricity mix,with 72%from hydropower,and consumes mor
164、e renewable energy in its final consumption than many other OECD countries.In 2016,Colombia launched the PEN to diversify energy supply by promoting wind power plants,solar PV and geothermal energy generation in the countrys electricity mix.A range of strategies and plans are adopted,but not always
165、well aligned or co-ordinated,stifling progress of the transition on the ground.While the Indicative Action Plan of Energy Efficiency(PAI PROURE)2022-2030 does set targets for energy efficiency by 2030,there are none for non-conventional energy sources beyond 2022,which means consumers and businesses
166、 have little visibility of the countrys medium-term energy transition objectives.Colombia is a producer economy which is still struggling with economic diversification ambitions and social development gaps and poverty.The Petro government takes these concerns seriously and acknowledges that the tran
167、sition will require substantial financial resources to wean the country off fossil fuels,which still account for more than 75%of the countrys energy mix.The PND aims at increasing the share of non-mining exports to 56.3%by 2026.Financial resources will also have to come from resource-related export
168、revenues in the short to medium term.Oil revenues continue to account for over 30%of the total value of Colombian exports.As a major producer and exporter of both oil and coal,Colombia is generating around USD 20 billion in annual foreign exchange earnings from both sources.In 2022,Colombias industr
169、y was benefitting from high export revenues in the context of the high energy price environment.Meanwhile,new rounds of licenses for greenfield oil/gas/mining development brought to Colombia commitments of new foreign direct investment of USD 7.6 billion in 2020.When evaluating Colombias energy tran
170、sition policy to date,some have suggested that any plan for greater coal and oil production to fund social development projects may contradict Colombias climate commitments of reducing 51%of its emissions by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050.To address such criticism,a clear vision is necessary to
171、define the future pathway and long-term transformation of the countrys energy production sectors(oil,gas and coal).This also includes involving international actors,as Colombia remains a major energy exporter and relies on global energy markets.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 24 A people-centr
172、ed just transition will be an essential prerequisite for the success of Colombias transition.Colombia should prioritise the provision of universal access to electricity and clean cooking while preparing for job shifts,reskilling and reconversion of traditional coal-mining regions to the future econo
173、mic opportunities stemming from the transition.Despite a range of funding programmes,in 2021,3%of the population still did not have access to electricity and 1 million families did not have access to clean cooking.Around 45%of the countrys population lives under the poverty line.Clean energy project
174、s face opposition from local communities,who raise concerns of a lack of consultation,assessment of environmental and social impacts,and a lack of understanding of the relationship between communities and their lands.This is most evident for La Guajira,whose population is 42%indigenous,with high lev
175、els of poverty and limited access to electricity,but with enormous potential for wind and solar energy.The energy transition is a key policy priority of the new Petro government,with a strong focus on social justice,local ownership of resources and support to vulnerable communities to achieve energy
176、 access and clean energy investment across all of the countrys regions.In 2023,the government adopted the implementing law for the PND 2022-2026 and is preparing a Just Energy Transition Roadmap to achieve a common vision across the entire country on the need for boosting clean energy for all,notabl
177、y in isolated areas;to reduce the high financial dependence on exports from extractive industry;and to boost employment and reskilling.Experience from the IEAs Global Commission on People-Centred Transitions provides useful learnings for the government of Colombia,helping to boost local economic ben
178、efits and the transition to clean energy and new job opportunities.Building on the PND,the Just Energy Transition Roadmap and subsidy reform can support the energy sector response to climate change,in line with the overall 2050 decarbonisation objectives.Recommendations The government of Colombia sh
179、ould:Define Colombias energy transition policy and set out practical actions needed to reconcile the affordable and secure energy growth required to support Colombias economic development with the countrys ambitious climate targets.Building on the PND 2022-2026 process,complete a broad consultation
180、with a wide range of stakeholders with a view toward gaining support for that general vision.Prioritise and ensure consistency in policies,targets and ambitions contained in the various laws,decrees,plans and sectoral policy documents involving energy and climate change and track progress of the mil
181、estones in Colombias energy transition.Establish a plan to address existing data gaps for robust tracking of energy supply and demand sectors and international energy data requirements,including the IEA.The plan should identify the institutional,legal and resource needs to formalise data access,auto
182、mate energy data collection and complete data centralisation systems as well as collaboration across institutions,including through the Integrame data hub.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 25 ENERGY INSIGHTS Agree an energy transition strategy with a people-centred focus,jointly with Colombias t
183、erritories and industry,building on existing initiatives.This would include social guidelines;local retraining programmes;and supporting access to energy,employment and economic development opportunities arising from clean energy deployment at the local level.Join IEA efforts globally to advance peo
184、ple-centred transitions.Improve co-operation among national,regional and territorial government departments and the private sector to ensure that local communities receive tangible economic and social benefits from the expansion of essential energy-related projects in their areas.References Fedebioc
185、ombustibles(2021),Statistics,https:/ Alliance for Clean Cookstoves)(2021),Colombia Market Assessment,https:/cleancooking.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/206-1.pdf.GoC Government of Colombia(2023),National Development Plan 2022-26,https:/www.dnp.gov.co/plan-nacional-desarrollo/pnd-2022-2026;https:/col
186、aboracion.dnp.gov.co/CDT/portalDNP/PND-2023/Ley_2294_del_19_de_mayo_de_2023.pdf.IEA(International Energy Agency)(2023),IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances(database),https:/www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-statistics-and-balances.OECD(2022),Economic Forecast Summary,http
187、s:/www.oecd.org/economy/panorama-economico-colombia.OECD/IEA(2021),G20 Fossil Fuel Subsidies Reform Update Report,https:/www.oecd.org/fossil-fuels/publicationsandfurtherreading/OECD-IEA-G20-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Reform-Update-2021.pdf.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY 26 IEA.CC BY 4.0.27 ENERGY
188、SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION 3.Energy and climate change Key data GHG emissions(2018):302.9 Mt CO2-eq,+35%since 1990 Energy-related CO2 emissions(2021):CO2 intensity per capita:1.55 t CO2/capita(IEA average:6.7 t CO2/capita)CO2 emissions from fuel combustion:79.7 Mt CO2,+24%since 2011,+67%since 1990 CO2 em
189、issions by fuel:oil 60.2%,natural gas 22.1%,coal 17.7%CO2 emissions by sector:transport 45%,industry 31%,electricity 16%and buildings 8%CO2 intensity per GDP:0.109 kg CO2/USD(IEA average:0.185 kg CO2/USD)Overview Colombias GHG emissions were 303 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-eq
190、)in 2018(Figure 3.1),a 35%increase since 1990.In the case of Colombia,agriculture,forestry and land use are not a sink but a net source of emissions,accounting for 56%of the total.Emissions from land-use change have increased with growing deforestation,which alone accounted for 35%of total GHG emiss
191、ions in 2018.During 2019-20,the deforested area was 171 685 hectares(ha),23%more than in 2018-19(158 893 ha),according to the countrys Third Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)(GoC,2021a).In 2018,the emissions from fossil fuel combustion(transp
192、ort,industry,energy industries,buildings,etc.)accounted for 31%of total GHG emissions,followed by waste(6.5%)and industrial processes and product use(3.5%).Showing a clear commitment to act on climate change,Colombia raised its climate pledge at COP26 in 2021 with an unconditional and ambitious redu
193、ction target of 51%for 2030 below the business-as-usual scenario and introduced a cap on total emissions of 169.44 Mt CO2-eq in 2030.An emissions reduction from 300 Mt CO2-eq in 2018 to 169.4 Mt CO2-eq in 2030 implies a reduction of 43%in 12 years,compared,for instance,with the-55%European Union(EU)
194、target over 40 years.Colombia plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 by reducing the countrys GHG emissions by 90%from 2015 levels and have the remaining 10%balanced with land use,land-use change and forestry(LULUCF).IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 28 Figure 3.1 Greenhouse gas emissio
195、ns by sector in Colombia,1990-2018 and targets IEA.CC BY 4.0.Colombias GHG emissions increased by 35%from 1990 to 2018.Agriculture,forestry and land use account for 56%of GHG emissions while 33%stem from fossil fuel combustion.Notes:LULUCF includes emissions and absorption from land use,land-use cha
196、nge and forestry.Source:GoC(2021a),IEA(2023).Energy-related CO2 emissions Emissions from fossil fuel combustion have been increasing,reaching a historic high of 80 Mt CO2 in 2016.In 2021,Colombia emitted 79.7 Mt CO2 from energy,a 9%increase with respect to 2020.The increase was mainly due to emissio
197、n growth in the transport sector of 28%from 2020 to 2021.Meanwhile,electricity and heat generation dropped from 18.4 Mt CO2 to 12.9 Mt CO2 over the same period.Transport was the largest emitter in the energy sector(45%of total emissions),followed by industry(31%),electricity and heat generation(16%)
198、,and buildings(7.9%)(Figure 3.2).Figure 3.2 Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector in Colombia,2005-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Colombias energy-related CO2 emissions increased until 2016 but have remained flat since.Source:IEA(2023).-500 50 100 150 200 250 300Mt CO-eqTargetWasteAgricultureIndustrial process
199、esFugitive emissionsIndustry(fuel combustion)BuildingsEnergy industriesTransportLULUCFNet zero0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Mt COElectricity andheat generationBuildingsIndustryTransportIEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 29 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION Domestic consumption of oil is responsible
200、for the largest share of energy-related CO2 emissions in Colombia,accounting for 60%of the total in 2021,followed by natural gas at 22%and coal at 18%(Figure 3.3).Figure 3.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Oil makes up the largest part of energy-related CO2 e
201、missions in Colombia,followed by natural gas and coal.Oil emissions increased by 9%in 2021 compared to 2020.Source:IEA(2023).CO2 emissions drivers and carbon intensity Colombia has a low carbon intensity of GDP compared to the IEA average,with CO2 emissions per GDP equivalent of 0.09 kilogrammes(kg)
202、of CO2/2015 USD PPP,less than half the IEA members weighted average(0.2 kg CO2)in 2021.From 2000 to 2021,total energy-related CO2 emissions in Colombia increased by 42%,while GDP roughly doubled(Figure 3.4),showing a relative decoupling from economic and population growth.Overall,there was a reducti
203、on in the CO2 intensity of the economy(CO2/GDP)by 33%,along with a reduction of 29%in the energy intensity of the economy(TES/GDP).This can be explained by the 14%decline in the carbon intensity of the energy supply mix(CO2/TES)over the same period.The carbon intensity of Colombias electricity gener
204、ation is fluctuating in line with the share of hydropower,reflecting annual and seasonal variability of the electricity generation mix during dry and wet years.In 2021,the carbon intensity decreased to 144.2 g CO2/kWh,from 229.3 g CO2/kWh in 2020,as the share of coal in electricity generation droppe
205、d by more than half(-58%)while the share of hydropower increased to 72%.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Mt CONatural gasOilCoalIEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 30 Figure 3.4 Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers in Colombia,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Colombias CO2 intensity of GDP has decreas
206、ed since 2000 as economic growth was higher than energy-related CO2 emissions growth,showing a slight decoupling.Note:GDP=gross domestic product;CO2=carbon dioxide;kWh=kilowatt hour;TES=total energy supply.Source:IEA(2023).Climate change targets Colombia is a non-Annex I Party to the UNFCCC.In 2018,
207、Colombia presented its first NDC,with GHG emissions reduction targets of 20%(unconditional)and 30%(conditional on technology transfer and climate finance)below the business-as-usual scenario in 2030.At the United Nations Climate Action Summit in September 2019,Colombia announced its pledge to reach
208、carbon neutrality by 2050.In December 2020,the government presented an updated NDC with a more ambitious reduction target of 51%for 2030(unconditional)below the business-as-usual scenario(GoC,2020),which was followed up by the Carbon Neutrality and Climate Resilience Strategy of Colombia(E2050).For
209、the first time,Colombia introduced a cap on total emissions of 169.44 Mt CO2-eq in 2030,compared to 345.8 Mt CO2-eq in the business-as-usual scenario and is committed to peak GHG emissions,ideally by 2027,but well before 2030.The government announced its intention to adopt a carbon budget approach f
210、or the period 2020-30.By 2030,Colombia targets the reduction of the deforestation rate to 50 000 ha/year and beyond the NDC efforts,it aims to reduce to zero deforestation and black carbon emissions by 40%by 2030,compared to 2014 emissions levels,excluding forest fires.The countrys NDC relies on the
211、 largest emissions reductions to come from the agriculture and forestry sector,today the largest source of emissions.1 The actions planned for this sector represent a potential reduction of 100.6 Mt CO2-eq.Outside of the sector,the targets and actions envisaged have a mitigation potential of 27.1 Mt
212、 CO2-eq(21.22%of total potential mitigation).1 The land-use sector comprises LULUCF and agriculture,sometimes referred to collectively as agriculture,forestry and other land use(AFOLU).0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2Index 1=2000GDPPopulationCO emissionsCO/kWh elec and heatCO/TESCO/GDPIEA.CC BY 4.0.3.
213、ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 31 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION Table 3.1 Overview of Colombias climate mitigation measures and their potential Mitigation action Mitigation potential by 2030(CO2-eq)Sector Energy efficiency 0.96-1.21 Mt Mines and energy Fugitive emissions 0.39-3.24 Mt Mines and energy Dema
214、nd management 0.22-2.01 Mt Mines and energy;industry;residential and commercial Diversification of electricity generation 4.74-7.99 Mt Mines and energy Integrated solid waste management 1.31 Mt Sanitation;mines and energy Domestic wastewater management 0.02 Mt Sanitation Sustainable construction 0.0
215、9 Mt Residential and commercial NAMA sustainable cattle farming 11.15 Mt AFOLU;mines and energy;transport Forest plantations for commercial purposes and capture of greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions 10.37 Mt AFOLU Strategies for reducing GHG emissions in the life cycle of cacao production 0.16 Mt AFOLU Re
216、duction of GHG emissions in rice production through adoption of technology(AMTEC 2.0)0.08 Mt AFOLU NAMA*coffee 0.36 Mt AFOLU;mines and energy;sanitation NAMA panela*0.1 Mt AFOLU;mines and energy;sanitation Promotion of energy management and energy efficiency projects in the industry sector 1.67 Mt I
217、ndustry;mines and energy Development of a low-carbon bricks industry 0.19 Mt Industry;mines and energy Implementation of technologies to reduce N2O emissions in the production of fertiliser raw materials 0.6 Mt Industry Sustainable cement production processes 0.71 Mt Industry Improvement of logistic
218、s and product management 1.48 Mt Industry;transport Electric mobility 4.04 Mt Transport Performance-based navigation 0.01 Mt Transport Programme for the modernisation of cargo trucks 1.03 Mt Transport Change from road to fluvial freight(Magdalena River)0.2 Mt Transport NAMA active transport and dema
219、nd management 0.13 Mt Transport NAMA development oriented to transport 0.16 Mt Transport Rehabilitation of the railway corridor La Dorada-Chiringuan-Santa Marta 0.11 Mt Transport Ecological restoration 16.94 Mt AFOLU Replacement of wood stoves with efficient stoves 2.29 Mt AFOLU;residential Substitu
220、tion of products with HFCs 0.85 Mt Industry;residential;commercial NAMA domestic refrigeration(energy efficiency)3.14 Mt Industry;residential;commercial Promotion of thermal districts for the replacement of cooling systems in cities(energy efficiency)0.02 Mt Industry;residential;commercial Intersect
221、oral reduction of deforestation(REDD+)59.18 Mt AFOLU Carbon pricing mechanism 0.73 Mt Mines and energy;transport*NAMA refers to low-carbon sustainable production.*Panela is raw cane sugar.Note:CO2-eq=carbon dioxide equivalent;Mt=million tonnes;AFOLU=agriculture,forestry and other land use.IEA.CC BY
222、4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 32 Climate Change Law The 2018 Climate Change Law created the legal and institutional framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation policy and governance in Colombia.It requires each ministry to prepare and implement a comprehensive sector climate change mana
223、gement plan(PIGCCS)with binding targets.Colombia has a whole-of-government approach to implementing its NDC through the PIGCCS.The latest 2021 PIGCCS presented specific actions to achieve the goals of Colombias 2020 updated NDC and the E2050 under the Climate Action Law(2169/2021).For the period 202
224、0-30,Colombia seeks to mitigate 176 Mt CO2-eq under its NDC.Table 3.2 shows the government allocated binding emissions mitigation targets by ministry under the interministerial PIGCCS process.Table 3.2 Colombias greenhouse gas mitigation targets by sector Leading ministry Emissions mitigation potent
225、ial/target by 2030(Mt CO2-eq)Share of potential emissions mitigation(%)Ministry of Mines and Energy 11.2 6.3 Ministry of Housing,City and Territory 1.42 0.8 Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 21.22 12.4 Ministry of Commerce,Industry and Tourism 4.67 2.6 Ministry of Transport 5.68 3.2 Mini
226、stry of Environment and Sustainable Development 23.24 13.1 Intersectoral(Deforestation)59.18 33.5 Ministry of Finance and Public Credit 0.73 0.4 Local government 49 27.7 Total 176.34 100 Source:GoC(2020),Annex M1 and the annex of the complementary mitigation portfolio.For the energy and mining secto
227、r,the PIGCCME co-ordinated and developed the energy sectors commitments(MME,2021a).Given Colombias overall GHG profile,it is well understood that energy sector action is not the main plank of action,with LULUCF sectors being asked to lead the short-to medium-term emissions mitigation action.Under th
228、e PIGCCME,the mitigation target for the energy sector is 11.2 Mt CO2-eq,with strong reductions expected to come from actions relating to electrification of transport and improvements in energy efficiency(see Chapter 4)(MME,2021a).The government expects half of the emissions reductions to come from t
229、he so-called intersectoral approach,which relates to actions combating deforestation.As for the transport sector,the government aims to add 600 000 electric vehicles(EVs)to the transport fleet by 2030 under the 2019 National Strategy of Electric Mobility(GoC,2019a).The transport sector is the princi
230、pal contributor to air pollution,which is reported to have significant effects on peoples health(see the section on air pollution below).Implementing mitigation policies in the transport sector will not only be beneficial for the climate,but will also yield important immediate benefits to air qualit
231、y.At the central government level,agreed mitigation actions represent a reduction of 127.7 Mt CO2-eq;local government action will contribute 28%in the share of emissions reductions alongside fighting deforestation.IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 33 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION Long-term st
232、rategy towards carbon neutrality by 2050 The E2050 Colombia(E2050C)strategy was presented by the government during the COP26 in Glasgow(GoC,2021b)as the countrys long-term strategy under the UNFCCC.The strategy was elaborated with an extensive process of expert consultation,technical analysis and pu
233、blic engagement,including civil society workshops and dialogues,and intersectoral committees.The whole process is guided by a central committee of experts.To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050,GHG emissions are planned to be reduced by 90%from 2015 levels while the remaining 10%would be balanced with
234、 LULUCF.Based on the NDC,the government aims to reduce GHG emissions from around 300 Mt CO2-eq in 2018 to 169.4 Mt CO2-eq in 2030.To achieve full carbon neutrality,the strategy aims to turn the LULUCF sector from a net emitting sector(at present)into a net sink,by protecting forests(stopping defores
235、tation and land conversion)and encouraging restoration.Protecting forests,developing agricultural land,afforestation and ecological restoration are intended to develop an absorption capacity for the country of potentially up to 508 Mt CO2-eq per year.The technical analysis underpinning the E2050 str
236、ategy was undertaken with the Global Change Analysis Model,which allows the integrated assessment of the economy,energy system and land use.Complementary modelling was done with other models,including the CAPRA model on climate change.The E2050 developed different scenarios based on variations in ec
237、onomic growth;population;and the cost of electric mobility,renewable energy and carbon capture technologies,as well as different global climate change scenarios impacting the Colombian hydrological system.Through a system of nine“stakes”,the E2050 strategy presents a set of actions and technology ch
238、oices to achieve the decarbonisation of Colombias economy.E2050 presents policies related to environmental education,a just transition and the circular economy.By 2050,the E2050 scenario achieves a reduction of gross emissions to around 25 Mt CO2-eq,with the remainder offset by removals from the lan
239、d-use sector.Total energy-related CO2 emissions are reduced from about 70 Mt CO2 in 2020 to about CO2 in 2030 and 12 Mt CO2 in 2050.This is in line with Colombias NDC.The E2050 outlines several major milestones to achieve the net zero emissions by 2050 target.In the energy field,it also proposes lin
240、es of action to promote operational carbon-neutral buildings,develop thermal districts and promote self-generation to cover up to 15%of energy demand.It also promotes the use carbon capture systems in thermal power plants,the digitalisation of the distribution system,and estimates that 70%of the dem
241、and for passenger mobility could be met by public transportation by 2050,of which 80-100%must operate with low-emission technologies.The E2050 envisages doubling the share of renewable energy in the total energy supply by 2050(from 25%in 2020 to 50%in 2050)mainly through substantial increases in the
242、 use of bioenergy and solar.IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 34 The E2050 envisages 70%of final consumption to be met through electricity,and around 20%by liquid fossil and bioenergy-based fuels.In the power sector,it envisages that by 2050,more than 60%of electricity generation will be met
243、 through solar and wind power,while hydro accounts for most of the rest.Coal and natural gas are phased out of the electricity system in the 2030s and 2040s,respectively.Total electricity generation grows from around 75 terawatt hours(TWh)in 2020 to around 480 TWh,driven by both economic growth and
244、electrification of energy demand.Wind and solar energy are set to see a significant growth,notably as the role of hydropower declines(from around 70%today).According to the Reference Generation and Transmission Expansion Plan 2020-2034,Colombia would have a total installed capacity of 7 330 MW of on
245、shore wind energy,2 000 MW of offshore wind energy and 10 909 MW of solar energy by 2050(UPME,2021).Natural gas also plays a role.While hydrogen is identified as a fuel for the future,notably green hydrogen,there are no quantitative plans for blending hydrogen into natural gas networks.Long-term ene
246、rgy scenarios The National Development Plan(PND)2022-26 will set the guidelines,actions and funding programmes needed to close the energy access gap,boost regional equality and equity,employment and clean energy production and use.A new PEN would follow the PND.The PEN is updated every two years,wit
247、h the next revision due for adoption in 2023.The energy sectors main long-term scenario planning is done by the UPME.The previous PEN 2020-2050 was adopted in 2021(MME,2021b).It was developed using the LEAP model(Low Emissions Analysis Platform),a widely used and well-established energy system model
248、ling platform.The PEN highlights the structural challenges facing the Colombian energy sector.First,the declining availability of domestic energy resources and the possibility of a regime change to net imports in oil and gas.Second,predominance of inefficient energy technologies,particularly in the
249、end-use sectors,which creates substantial excess costs to the energy system.Third,mitigation and adaptation to climate change are becoming more significant.Fourth,disruptive technological trends of decentralisation and digitalisation are gaining importance in the system.Building on those challenges,
250、the PEN is developed to serve four key policy objectives:1)security and reliability of supply;2)mitigation and adaptation to climate change;3)competitiveness and economic development;and 4)management of knowledge and innovation.In line with this,the PEN develops four key scenarios for Colombias ener
251、gy future:updating,modernisation,decline and disruption.The PEN is explicitly framed as an exercise in energy system scenario analysis;it is not intended to provide predictions.Intended as an indicative and exploratory scenario exercise,the PEN 2020-2050 also predates the adoption of the goal of rea
252、ching net zero emissions in 2050.As such,it expected energy sector CO2 emissions of 59-75 Mt in 2030 and 53-90 Mt in 2050(compared to 12 Mt in E2050).The long-term energy scenarios of the PEN 2020-2050 were devised to meet the goal of reducing emissions by 20%with respect to the baseline of the NDC
253、proposed in 2015 to be achieved in 2030(the reference document for the preparation of the PEN 2020-2050).IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 35 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION The PEN increases the ambition to 40%in the scenario with the highest ambition.The update of the NDC goal in 2020 was not
254、 available at the time the PEN 2020-2050 was constructed.The PEN envisages a growth in energy demand of 21-48%between now and 2050(a relatively modest average annual growth rate of around 0.5-1.3%per year,implying a very substantial improvement in energy intensity given the assumed long-run GDP grow
255、th rate of 3.1-3.5%per year).Under the PEN,oil and oil products are expected to continue to play an important role and the transport sector is considered the main transition sector.The PEN envisages a share of oil products in TES of 34-44%in 2050(compared to 40%in 2020);16-27%for natural gas(22%in 2
256、020);11%for hydrogen;and 15-20%for wind,solar and other non-hydro renewables(14%in 2020).The PEN also estimates total energy system costs of the four scenarios presented,including capital costs of supply technologies,capital costs of end-use technologies and fuel costs.It finds that total energy sys
257、tem costs are the highest in the Disruption scenario(which also leads to the lowest emissions in 2050),at 13%higher than in the Updating scenario.The key driver of the high costs are the modelled high capital cost of low emissions and efficient end-use technologies,while assumed fuel savings are not
258、 sufficient to cancel out the higher capital costs.For example,the PEN assumes that EVs will achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles only around 2035,and that the long-run oil price is around USD 45/barrel(it should be noted that the PEN was elaborated in the middle of the Covid
259、-19 crisis in 2020).Figure 3.5 Global milestones under the IEA Net Zero Emissions Roadmap IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Gt=gigatonne;GW=gigawatt;ICE=internal combustion engine;Gt CO2=gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.Source:IEA(2022).IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 36 As the PEN was designed before the ad
260、option of Colombias E2050 strategy,it is not necessarily aligned with net zero by 2050 goals,while the E2050 is a decarbonisation pathway.The PEN 2020-2050(Ministry of Mines and Energy)and the E2050(Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development)have similar assumptions,but differ in many other
261、s,such as economic drivers and the share of the energy sector in the economy.When updating the PEN,it will be worthwhile examining Colombias E2050 against the global benchmark,the IEAs Net Zero Emissions Roadmap and its milestones for the global energy sector to achieve net zero emissions by 2050(Fi
262、gure 3.5).Climate change mitigation policies Carbon pricing Since 2016 Colombia levies a national carbon tax on the sale,import or consumption of liquid fuels.The tax is levied on the final price of regular motor gasoline,regular oxygenated motor gasoline,diesel and diesel mixed with biofuel for use
263、 in diesel engines(Resolution 40112/2021).The carbon tax(Article 221 of Law 1819/2016)is set according to the carbon content of fossil fuels,including all petroleum derivatives and all types of natural gas used for energy purposes,provided they are used for combustion.Table 3.3 presents the carbon t
264、ax rates as of 1 February 2023 based on Resolution 12/2023.Table 3.3 Carbon tax rates in Colombia,1 February 2023 Rate/unit Liquefied petroleum gas COP 152.92/US gal Kerosene and jet fuel COP 224.82/US gal Coal COP 59.587/tonne Fuel oil COP 271.61/US gal As of 2024 Natural gas COP 36/m3 Diesel oil(A
265、CPM)COP 191/US gal Gasoline COP 169/US gal Note:COP=Colombian peso;gal=gallon.Source:https:/www.dian.gov.co/normatividad/Normatividad/Resoluci%C3%B3n%20000012%20de%2031-01-2023.pdf.The annual revenue from the carbon tax contributes to around 0.5%of GDP and resources are administered by the Colombia
266、in Peace Fund for expenditure on key issues,such as rural development,the fight against coastal erosion,support to protected areas and the National Peace Accord.Colombias carbon tax covers around 19%of the countrys GHG emissions,according to the OECD effective carbon rates assessment(OECD,2021),main
267、ly pricing emissions in the transport sector.IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 37 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION The national fuel tax has existed for over 25 years and is applied to gasoline,diesel and all other liquid motor fuels used in vehicles and stationary combustion engines.In April 20
268、21,the government announced a major tax reform,which planned to extend the coverage of carbon taxation to coal and natural gas.This reform would have resulted in a gradual increase in the prices of coal,natural gas and LPG for electricity generation,assigning different rates for residential and indu
269、strial users.2 Major protests erupted(known as Paro Nacional)and the tax reform was withdrawn by the then president.In August 2022,the Ministry of Finance and Public Credits presented the tax reform plan as President Petro started his term,which was adopted by Congress in November 2022.As of 1 Febru
270、ary 2023,a carbon tax at COP 23 394.60 or EUR 5.28/t CO2-eq,is imposed on all petroleum derivatives and natural gas used for combustion as well as coal.A gradual increase will occur for the tax on coal over time:0%in 2023 and 2024;25%in 2025,50%in 2026,75%in 2027 and as of 2028 the full rate of COP
271、59 587/t or EUR 13.46/t.As fossil fuel exports are exempt from the carbon tax,the reform imposes a 10%tax on income from oil and coal exports that exceed the designated price threshold(USD 48/barrel and USD 87/t respectively).3 Colombias NDC announced the creation of a national emissions trading mec
272、hanism(ETS),which could have a reduction potential of 0.73 Mt CO2 in 2030(see Table 3.1).The Climate Action Law(2169/2021)consolidates the commitments presented in Colombias NDC and announces to fully implement the ETS by 2030.Colombia has a certified mechanism for using GHG reduction and removals o
273、ffsets to receive an exemption from the national carbon tax.Around 75%of offsets stem from offset activities in forestry and agriculture.In 2018,the government presented the national programme of tradable GHG emissions quota(PNCTE),but the project is still in the preparatory phase.The private sector
274、 developed a voluntary carbon market,in which each of the carbon bonds exchanged represent one metric tonne of CO2 that was reduced or neutralised through the development of a GHG emissions mitigation project.These carbon bonds are deductible from the total emissions of the companies and,therefore,f
275、rom the national carbon tax.Air pollution In 2019,Colombia released its National Air Quality Strategy.Colombia has 175 air quality monitoring stations across the territory(MADS,2021).According to the air quality index,4 air quality in Colombia,notably in Bogota,has decreased.The major sources of air
276、 pollution relate to deforestation,agriculture activity,vehicle and industrial emissions,and construction activity in growing urban areas.2https:/www.larepublica.co/economia/pese-a-politica-de-transicion-energetica-la-reforma-tributaria-gravaria-la-energia-solar-3158474.3 https:/carbon- https:/ BY 4
277、.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 38 The OECD highlights that the exposure to pollution in Colombia is higher than the OECD average and of most countries in Latin America.In 2019,the year of the latest data available,the mortality rate associated with air pollution was 260 per million inhabitants,sligh
278、tly lower than the OECD average(275 per million inhabitants)(OECD,2020a).Exposure to air pollution in Colombia has been relatively constant since 2000,with 22.53 micrograms per cubic metre(g/m3)of fine particles(PM2.5)in 2019,higher than the OECD weighted average(14 g/m3)(OECD,2020b).Figure 3.6 Air
279、pollution in Colombia and selected countries,2000-2019 Exposure to air pollution in Colombia was 22.53 g/m3 of fine particles(PM2.5)in 2019,higher than the OECD weighted average(19.93 g/m3).Source:OECD(2020b).In 2012,Colombia became partner with the Climate and Clean Air Coalition(CCAC)and participa
280、tes in the Supporting National Action and Planning(SNAP),Bricks,Urban Health and Mineral Methane initiatives from this coalition.Within the framework of the SNAP programme,Colombia developed a National Strategy for the Mitigation of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in 2018(MADS,2020).The strategy incl
281、udes the following targets for 2030,which are part of Colombias NDC:1)Reduce the consumption and emissions from hydrofluorocarbons by 10%in 2029,30%in 2035,50%in 2040 and 80%in 2045,compared to 2020-22 levels.Colombia committed to promoting the replacement of high global warming potential(GWP)refrig
282、erants with low GWP refrigerants.2)Reduce methane emissions by around 170 000 tonnes by 2030 by capturing methane emissions from open-pit mines and burning biogas recovered from sewage and landfills.The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development promotes other measures for the agricultural sector
283、,such as pasture renovation or enteric fermentation.3)Reduce black carbon emissions by 40%compared to 2014 levels.Targets for PM2.5 are under preparation.Other administrative objectives are included in the strategy for 2022,such as the creation of at least five trained environmental authorities acti
284、ng in urban and industrial zones;the 10 15 20 25 30200020052000019ChileColombiaEcuadorMexicoOECDBrazilg per cm3IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 39 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION integration of a national inventory of black carbon emissions in the forthcoming u
285、pdated submissions to the UNFCCC;the integration of a monitoring system and the development of a portfolio of actions to mitigate black carbon emissions.Climate adaptation and resilience Colombia is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events,such as droughts and floods,especially during phenomena s
286、uch as El Nio and La Nia,respectively.Over the last 50 years,90%of the climate disasters in Colombia were associated with hydro meteorological events(GoC,2012).Particularly heavy rains in 2010-11 associated with La Nia affected 3 million people and costed around 2%of GDP(GoC,2012),as the First Natio
287、nal Adaptation Plan of 2012 outlined.According to the Institute of Hydrology,Meteorology and Environmental Studies,during the second half of the 20th century,several regions of the country experienced an increase of the average air temperature at a rate of 0.1-0.2C per decade.The maximum temperature
288、s of the pramos mountains,an ecosystem in the Andes mountains above the continuous forest line,yet below the permanent snowline,have been increasing by 1C per decade.Storms and heavy precipitations are also increasing in most of the country,mainly in the areas of Caribe,Orinoqua,North and South Paci
289、fic,and northern Andean region.During the period 1945-85,eight mountain glaciers melted;only four remained in 2018.It is estimated that all Colombian glaciers will have disappeared by 2030.The average temperature is projected to increase from 1.3C to 1.8C by 2050 and annual average rainfall from 0.8
290、%to 1.6%.Extreme rainfall days are also expected to increase from 27%to 37%by 2050(USAID,2017).The rise in ocean levels from 0.4 to 0.7 metres threatens cities such as Cartagena and could potentially cause a loss of key ecosystems like coral reefs and fisheries,which are critical to livelihoods.Ther
291、e has been an upward trend in deforestation for agriculture and urbanisation in Colombia.In 2018,the government implemented a Payment for Ecosystem Services system,5 which remunerates people who provide environmental services,such as the conservation of a water basin or a forest.Climate change also
292、represents a risk for the Colombian power sector,as 70%of electricity generation is based on hydroelectric energy.As explained in more detail in Chapter 6,Colombia has implemented a range of reliability mechanisms to ensure back-up capacity for years with low hydropower availability.According to the
293、 IEA special report Climate Impacts on Latin American Hydropower(IEA,2021),the regional mean hydropower capacity factor in Latin America is expected to decline.However,in the Andean region(Colombia,Ecuador and Peru),the increase in annual average rainfall and in the average runoff volume project a s
294、light increase in the hydropower capacity factor.Current climate projections for Colombia suggests a relative maintenance of the hydropower capacity factor by 2100 compared to 1970-2000,but the increase in extreme precipitation events will add stress to operation.The report 5 https:/www.metropol.gov
295、.co/ambiental/Paginas/consumo-sostenible/pagos-por-servicios-ambientales.aspx.IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 40 recommended building and strengthening climate risk resilience and public insurance.The private insurance usually covers the damage to physical assets and lost revenue,but not t
296、he damage to society,the national economy or attendant costs.Given its high vulnerability to climate risks,adaptation is a priority for Colombia.Particular attention has been paid to climate change adaptation since the 2010 La Nina event.The Adaptation Fund6(Fondo Adaptacin)was created in 2011 to fa
297、ce the risks and consequences of natural disasters.This intersectoral entity is in charge of developing projects for climate change adaptation at the regional level.Colombia implemented a national adaptation plan(PNACC)in 2012,which establishes general guidelines for sectoral and territorial entitie
298、s to include adaptation actions in their planning strategies(GoC,2012).The PIGCCME,adopted in 2018 and updated in 2021,sets out four strategic areas for future work on adaptation(MME,2021a):1)Resilient infrastructure:integrates the risk management of climate change and climate variability,which may
299、affect the countrys energy security;in particular,the transportation of hydrocarbons,coal and inputs for the energy mining activity on the countrys highways and the transmission of electricity.Includes climate risk in pipelines and transmission lines,and co-ordination with road and port authorities.
300、2)Short-and long-term planning to promote the progressive incorporation of climate risk management at all levels of planning and decision making in the mining and energy system,both at the sectoral and corporate levels.This aims to strengthen resilience and competitiveness in the face of the effects
301、 of climate variability and change.It encompasses the inclusion of risk variables in planning instruments,generating a climate risk assessment and a warning system,and influencing long-term corporate planning with climate change plans.3)Environment management to support the co-ordination of efforts
302、of public and private actors in the sector for managing climate risks that may occur in the territories with mining and energy development.This includes the use of nature-based solutions to contribute to the conservation of reservoirs and biodiversity.4)Information for adaptation supports research a
303、nd updated and accurate information on the threats and impacts of climate change on mining and energy systems,as well as on all those elements involved in the energy transition.This is an important input for short-and long-term decision making.To reduce climate vulnerability and guarantee energy gen
304、eration in extreme climate events,the PIGCCme aims to identify the best nature-based solutions to be implemented in a hydropower plant watershed and modelling the hydropower plant energy potential after implementing the nature-based solutions.The PND 2018-2022“Pact for Colombia,Pact for Equity”(GoC,
305、2019b),set a target for the four-year period to reach 100%of departments that implement climate change 6 https:/www.fondoadaptacion.gov.co/index.php/fondo-adaptacion/quienes-somos.html.IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 41 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION adaptation initiatives.The plan acknowled
306、ged that climate change adaptation analysis and action are not co-ordinated efficiently and there are no mechanisms to monitor their implementation and effectiveness.Colombia included adaptation targets for 2025-30 in its 2020 updated NDC(GoC,2020).The E2050C strategy sets out plans to develop an In
307、tegrated Public Health Surveillance and Control System(SIVCSP)and Early Warning Systems(SAT)which would include climatic and non-climatic factors to calibrate the response within and across sectors.Assessment Colombia has a less carbon-intensive economy than IEA countries and intensity levels have d
308、ecreased despite continuous economic growth.From 2000 to 2021,total energy-related CO2 emissions in Colombia increased by 42%,as GDP per capita had grown by 65%.In 2021,Colombia emitted almost 80 Mt CO2 from energy sector activities(fossil fuel combustion).In 2021,transport was the largest emitter i
309、n the energy sector,followed by industry,power generation and buildings.The energy sector is not the main driver of GHG emissions;agriculture and deforestation account for around 60%of emissions.Colombia has increased its governments ambition with respect to climate mitigation.Colombia cannot easily
310、 be compared with higher income OECD countries due to its high emissions from deforestation.Nonetheless,a-51%target is a very ambitious goal and it is unconditional,a rare commitment by non-Annex I parties of the UNFCCC.An emissions reduction from around 300 Mt in 2018 to 169.4 Mt in 2030 implies a
311、reduction of 43%in 12 years,compared,for instance,with the-55%EU target over 40 years.Colombia seeks to mitigate 176 Mt CO2-eq by 2030 compared to the baseline,through mitigation actions set out under the updated NDC,presented at COP26 and legally enshrined in the Climate Action Law and PIGCCS,with
312、a major contribution estimated from the LULUCF sector(100 Mt)and actions at the territorial level.Long-term strategy and energy sector response While important first steps have been taken to legislate the 2030 and 2050 targets in the Climate Action Law,the 2050 net zero target is not yet fully refle
313、cted in near-term policy making.Colombia has a range of high-quality medium-to long-tem scenario-based strategies and several voluntary and mandatory instruments for setting mitigation targets and policy approaches,including the PEN,PIGCCme 2050,E2050 and NDC.Greater consistency is needed among thos
314、e plans and strategies in terms of scenarios,visibility of action and derived mitigation targets.In November 2021,Colombia presented its long-term development strategy at COP26 in Glasgow following a broad range of consultations with experts,industry and academia at large,securing the overall buy-in
315、 from Colombian society on a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050.The IEA is impressed by the degree of public engagement in the technical analysis supporting the E2050.Both the E2050 and the PEN display a high IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 42 degree of sophistication in terms of the te
316、chnical modelling analysis,as well as the carefully considered scenario design that allows an evaluation of key policy goals,drivers and uncertainties.The E2050 highlights a number of challenges of moving towards net zero by 2050.These include the low level of electrification of final energy consump
317、tion;the need to ensure continued economic growth and the provision of services to the Colombian population;the challenge of stopping illegal deforestation;and uncertainty in the future costs and performance of some low emissions technologies such as carbon capture,utilisation and storage(CCUS),adva
318、nced biofuels and low-emission hydrogen.The latest PEN was elaborated prior to the adoption of the E2050 and based on the NDC.The E2050 explicitly acknowledges that the PEN is not yet aligned with the goal of net zero by 2050.The next update to the PEN will be carried out after the PND 2022-2026 is
319、finalised.Colombias NDC states that it would establish carbon budgets for the 2020-30 period no later than 2023.Carbon budgets have been useful frameworks for medium-and long-term climate policy making in IEA countries.In Colombia,more specifically,they could be used to bridge the relatively concret
320、e 2030 approach and the yet more indicative approaches for reaching the 2050 ambition.It would also be an opportunity to better align the E2050,PEN and NDC scenarios with the implementing framework of the PIGCCME.For instance,the IEA noted a disconnect between the energy scenarios and plans underpin
321、ning the NDC target of a 51%emissions reduction by 2030 and the net zero goal by 2050.None of the PEN scenarios presents a pathway for the energy sector to fully contribute to this target and there is no clarity on the sectoral pathway for Colombias oil/gas production and coal mining under the net z
322、ero by 2050 goal.Colombia could benefit from the development of a normative energy system scenario that is consistent with the legislated goal of net zero emissions by 2050,set out in the Climate Action Law(2169/2021).Such a normative scenario would help orient all actors around this goal,ensure con
323、sistency between short-and long-term actions,and reveal the actions needed to achieve the goal.This normative scenario could co-exist alongside regularly updated reference scenarios,similar to the IEAs approach of combining reference and normative scenarios.The PEN is framed as a living document.A r
324、egular scenario exercise with continually updated fuel price and technology assumptions could reveal interesting evolutions.For example,the IEAs analysis shows a much earlier point of competitiveness of EVs(already today in many vehicle markets).It also shows that more ambitious decarbonisation scen
325、arios need not have excess energy system costs in the longer term compared to a reference scenario,due to the substitution of investment costs and fuel costs.The energy system results of the E2050 display a number of possible weaknesses that are sometimes common to the results of integrated assessme
326、nt models such as the Global Change Analysis Model.For example,the very high share of electricity in final consumption(around 70%)is substantially higher than in the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,which sees a 50%share of electricity globally.In the IEAs experience,integrated assessment mo
327、dels sometimes do not represent end uses at a sufficient level IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 43 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION of granularity to reveal the barriers to deep electrification(for example,in very high-temperature process heat;long-distance,heavy-duty road transport;or fossil f
328、uel feedstocks to industry).These analyses still do not address a number of important policy areas related to the energy transition to net zero emissions.These include the energy security implications of the scenarios studied in terms of imports and exports;international linkages in fuel and technol
329、ogy markets;and socio-economic considerations such as affordability,job creation,subsidy regimes and fiscal implications.Addressing these questions may require building new modelling tools or modules over time,as it is unlikely that a single model would be able to adequately represent these differen
330、t issues.The consistency of the long-term scenarios and the medium-term oil,gas and coal projections will be an important part of the net zero analysis(modelling and sectoral pathways).President Petro aims to reduce Colombias reliance on fossil fuels and change the economic approach.By switching to
331、an economy based on critical minerals production and exports,Colombia could expand its revenues and make up for lower revenues from coal mining and exports.Alongside the analysis of socio-economic implications,the goal of net zero emissions raises new questions for policy and energy modelling and an
332、alysis.Particularly important among them is the issue of sector coupling and its implications for energy security,energy system operation and energy costs.Climate change mitigation Representatives of Colombias energy associations,non-governmental organisations and universities reached an overall bro
333、ad agreement with the ambitions of the Climate Action Law.Stakeholders called for a comprehensive clean transport policy,greater cost effectiveness in implementation and a stable policy framework while acknowledging that the energy sector emits less than a third of total GHG emissions.Furthermore,they observed that Colombias energy transition has just begun.The government has developed important p