《联合国开发计划署:2023-2024年人类发展报告(英文版)(324页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《联合国开发计划署:2023-2024年人类发展报告(英文版)(324页).pdf(324页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、REPORT 2023/2024Reimagining cooperation in apolarized worldCopyright 2024 By the United Nations Development Programme 1 UN Plaza,New York,NY 10017 USAAll rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system or transmitted,in any form or by means,electronic,mecha
2、nical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without prior permission.Sales no.:E.24.III.B.2 Print ISBN:9789210031028 PDF ISBN:9789213588703 Print ISSN:0969-4501 Online ISSN:2412-3129A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library and Library of CongressGeneral disclaimers.The de
3、signations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Human Development Report Office(HDRO)of the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP)concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or are
4、a or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Dotted and dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.The findings,analysis,and recommendations of this Report,as with previous Reports,do not represent th
5、e official position of the UNDP or of any of the UN Member States that are part of its Executive Board.They are also not necessarily endorsed by those mentioned in the acknowledgments or cited.The mention of specific companies does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by UNDP in preferenc
6、e to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.Some of the figures included in the analytical part of the report where indicated have been estimated by the HDRO or other contributors to the Report and are not necessarily the official statistics of the concerned country,area or territory,whic
7、h may use alternative methods.All the figures included in the Statistical Annex are from official sources.All reasonable precautions have been taken by the HDRO to verify the information contained in this publication.However,the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind,ei
8、ther expressed or implied.The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the material lies with the reader.In no event shall the HDRO and UNDP be liable for damages arising from its use.The signed contributions in boxes and spotlights represent the opinions of the authors and are the product o
9、f independent research of their responsibility.They do not represent necessarily the position or opinions of the Human Development Report Office or UNDP.Any errors or omissions are the authors responsibility.They are presented in the report to stimulate debate and to encourage further dialogue betwe
10、en researchers and decisionmakers.Printed in the USA,by AGS,an RR Donnelley Company,on Forest Stewardship Council certified and elemental chlorine-free papers.Printed using vegetable-based ink.The 2023/2024 Human Development ReportREPORT 2023/2024Reimagining cooperation in apolarized worldBreaking t
11、he gridlockReimagining cooperation in a polarized worldHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024 iiiHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024TeamDirector and lead authorPedro ConceioResearch and statisticsCecilia Caldern,Pratibha Gautam,Moumita Ghorai,Divya Goyal,Yu-Chieh Hsu,Christina Lengfelder,Brian Lutz,Tasne
12、em Mirza,Rehana Mohammed,Josefin Pasanen,Fernanda Pavez Esbry,Antonio Reyes Gonzlez,SomKumar Shrestha,Ajita Singh,Heriberto Tapia and Yanchun ZhangDigital,data and knowledge management,communications,operations,NationalHuman Development ReportsNasantuya Chuluun,Jon Hall,Seockhwan Bryce Hwang,Nicole
13、Igloi,Admir Jahic,Mohammad Kumail Jawadi,Fe Juarez Shanahan,Minji Kwag,Ana Porras,Stanislav Sailing,Marium Soomro and Sajia WaisHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024The 2023/2024 Human Development Report Advisory BoardCo-chairsTharman Shanmugaratnam President of the Republic ofSingaporeJoseph E.Stiglit
14、z University Professor,Columbia UniversityMembersOlu Ajakaiye Executive Chairman,African Centre for Shared Development Capacity Building,NigeriaScott Barrett Lenfest-Earth Institute Professor of Natural Resource Economics,Columbia UniversityKaushik Basu Professor of International Studies,Cornell Uni
15、versityLaura Chincilla Former President of the Republic of Costa RicaDiane Coyle Bennett Professor of Public Policy and Co-Director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy,University of CambridgeOeindrila Dube Philip K.Pearson Professor,Harris School of Public Policy,University of ChicagoCai Fang
16、 Chief Expert of National Think Tank,Chinese Academy of Social SciencesMarc Fleurbaey Research Director,CNRS;Professor,Paris School of Economics;Associate Professor,Ecole normale suprieure,ParisRavi Kanbur Professor,CornellUniversityJudith Kelley Dean,Duke Sanford School of Public Policy,Duke Univer
17、sityMelissa Leach Director,Institute of Development StudiesHarini Nagendra Director,Research Centre,and Professor and Lead,Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability,Azim Premji UniversityAbebe Shimeles Honorary Professor,University of Cape Town;Outgoing Executive Director,African Economic Researc
18、h ConsortiumBelinda Reyers Professor,University of Pretoria;Affiliated Researcher,Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics,Swedish Royal Academy of SciencesIlona Szabo DeCarvalho Co-founder and president,Igarape Institute,BrazilKrushil Watene Peter Kraus Associate Professor in Philosophy,University
19、of AucklandFOREWORDv ForewordWe live in a tightly knit world.Yet shared,interlinked global challenges,such as runaway climate change,are outpacing our institutions capacities to respond to them.We face“a global gridlock,”exacerbated by growing polarization within our countries,which trans-lates into
20、 barriers to international cooperation.Why,despite all our riches and technologies,are we so stuck?Is it possible to mobilize action to address glob-ally shared challenges in a world that is intensively polar-ized?These questions motivate the 2023/2024 Human Development Report.Firmly grounded in the
21、 advance-ment made in its predecessors,the Report reminds us that our shared aspirations for development need to go beyond wellbeing achievements to also enable people to feel more in control of their lives,less threatened and more empowered to act on shared challenges.The human toll of this growing
22、 gridlock is huge.In lives lost,in opportunities forgone,in feelings of de-spair.After 20 years of progress,and for the first time on record,inequalities in Human Development Index(HDI)values which measure a countrys health,education and standard of living are growing between countries at the bottom
23、 and countries at the top of the index.Fol-lowing the 2020 and 2021 declines in the global HDI value,the world had the opportunity to build forward better.Instead,this Human Development Report shows that our global community is falling short.Deaths in battle and displacement from violent conflicts a
24、re in-creasing,reaching the highest levels since World War II.Leading up to a decade of increasingly higher tempera-tures,2023 has been the hottest ever recorded.The path of human development progress shifted down-wards and is now below the pre-2019 trend,threatening to entrench permanent losses in
25、human development.Unless we change course.We can still redress inequalities in human develop-ment,but we must rapidly learn some lessons.To start,the Report argues that we need to capitalize on our global connections,choosing cooperation over conflict.The Report shows how the mismanagement of cross-
26、border interdependencies(the response to the Covid-19 pandemic,for example)is at the root of many contemporary challenges,ranging from debt distress in numerous low-and middle-income coun-tries to threats to food security to a pervasive sense of disempowerment around the world.New analysis in the Re
27、port using data from the World Values Survey shows that only half the global population feels in control of their lives and that only one-third of people believe that their voice is heard in their political system.Looking ahead,there will only be more globally shared opportunities and challenges.Bes
28、ides the high economic interdependence,two main drivers of interdependence are likely to shape our future in the decades to come.First,the dangerous planetary changes of the Anthropocene are deepening the global connections among societ-ies,economies and ecosystems:viruses,microplastics in our ocean
29、s and forest fires do not care much for national borders.As the Report argues,we may choose to de globalize,but we cannot“deplanetize.”Second,an unfolding Digital Revolution has led to a dizzying increase in the sharing of data,ideas and culture across societies.To break the gridlock,the Report is a
30、n invitation to reimagine cooperation by pursuing three ideas that it encourages the world to fight for.First,it is imperative to pursue common ground while accepting that people will have the right to retain their diverse interests and priorities.Piercing a fog of false differences,or misperception
31、s,is one of the most effec-tive ways of changing behaviour towards cooperation that addresses shared challenges.Second,we must enable people to pursue their le-gitimate and natural human security ambitions without protectionism.It has now been 30 years since the 1994 Human Development Report introdu
32、ced the notion of human security.It focuses on what gives people agency to shape their lives free from fear,want and living without dignity.From the energy transition to artificial intelligence,discussion of risks and challenges needs to be rebalanced with the consistent articulation of the potentia
33、l to live,for the first time ever,with a surplus of energy and with artificial intelligence that augments what people can do.Third,we need a 21st century architecture for inter-national cooperation to deliver global public goods.This includes the planetary public goods required to navigate the Anthr
34、opocene from climate change mitigation to pandemic preparedness to biodiversity preservation as well as the digital public infrastructure and digital public goods that would enable the Digital viHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024Revolution to be harnessed to enable people to flourish in more equitab
35、le ways.Global public goods are vital for our interdependent future as global citizens and require rethinking international finance to complement devel-opment assistance(supporting poor countries)and humanitarian assistance(saving lives in emergencies).Indeed,we need to recognize the undeniable fact
36、 that we now have access to new financial mechanisms,extraordinary technologies and our greatest asset:human ingenuity and our cooperative capacities.Yet today,psychologists warn that many children report feeling anxious and that they feel they live in a world that does not care about their future.T
37、his Report is a rallying cry we can and must do better than this.It charts ways forward and invites to a conversation on reimagining cooperation.Achim Steiner Administrator United Nations Development ProgrammeACKNOWLEDGEMENTSviiHow to make sense of producing a Human Development Report at a time of w
38、ar?Not only of wars between and within countries but also with our planet,with ourselves and with our future?These questions weighed heavily on our minds.But over time they strengthen the resolve of the team,fuelled by the conviction that the recurring messages of successive Human Development Report
39、s are more relevant than ever.They bear repeating and reaf-firming,because even though they may have been said many times before,they seem to be pushed more and more into the background.The primacy of people as the purpose and agents of develop-ment.The crucial importance of enabling people to live
40、free from want,fear and indignity,still relevant 30 years after the introduction of the concept of human security in the 1994 Human Development Report.Redressing inequalities in human development.This,as other Human Development Re-ports,is an examination of the barriers that enable people to live th
41、eir lives to their full potential and what to do about them.And here there is much that is new in the world today.Building on the 2021/2022 Human Development Report,which identified polarization as a barrier to ad-dressing shared challenges as one of the novel layers of uncertainty confronting the w
42、orld,this Report does a deep dive into the reasons why polarization is increas-ing,how that creates gridlock in collective action and how to reimagine cooperation to break the gridlock.The Report was pos-sible only because of the encouragement,generosity and contributions of so many,recognized only
43、imperfectly and partially in these acknowledgments.The members of the Advisory Board are recognized next to the report team,given their fundamental contributions to the framing and analysis in the report.But we would like to recognize in particular co-chair President Tharman Shanmugarat-nam,who has
44、graciously and generously been co-chair since 2019,and has agreed to remain in this role even after assuming high office.We,and everyone interested in human development and development more broadly,owe President Tharman a huge debt of gratitude.Complementing the advice from our Advisory Board,the Re
45、ports Statistical Advisory Panel provided guidance on several methodological and data aspects of the Report particularly those related to calculating the Reports human devel-opment indices.We are grateful to all the panel members:Mario Biggieri,Camilo Ceita,Ludgarde Coppens,Koen Decancq,Thomas Helge
46、son,Jason Hickel,Milo-rad Kovacevic,Steve Macfeelys,Silvia Montoya,Shantanu Mukherjee,Ekaterina Poleshchuk,Michaela Saisana,Hany Torky,Mohd Uzir and Dany Wazen.Appreciation is also extended for all the data,written inputs and peer reviews of draft chapters to the Report,including those by Barbara Ad
47、ams,Scott Barret,Cornelia Betsch,Robert Bhm,Wolfgang Buchholz,Leonardo Bursztyn,Fernando Casal Bertoa,Patricia Clavin,Tiago De-vesa,Charles Efferson,Charlotte Fiedler,Odd-Helge Fjeldstad,Katha Freistein,Karla Daniela Gonzlez,Kenneth Hartt-gen,Nicole Hassoun,Luca Henkel,Jo-seph Henrich,Tadashi Hirai,
48、Ingrid Home Sjursen,Eduardo Ibarra-Olivio,Solava Ibrahim,Otto Ilona,Julia Leininger,An-drea Marinucci,Ronald Mendoza,Jos Antonio Ocampo,Laura Pereira,Hannah Pool,Marcela Rios Tobar,Todd Sandler,Emanuele Sapienza,Armin von Schiller,Tobias Schillings,Phillip Sprengholz,Andrew Thompson,Jurel Yap and Sa
49、rah White.We are especially thankful for our close collaborations with our partners:the Inter-national Science Council,including Peter Gluckman and Megha Sud;Lloyds Regis-ter Foundation,including Suela Aksoy and Ed Morrow;McKinsey Global Institute,in-cluding Anu Madgavkar;Peace Research Institute Os
50、lo,including Siri Aas Rustad,Andrew Arasmith,Kristine Helskog and Gudrun stby;South-North Scholars,including Nino Nadirashvili and Charlie Zong;the Climate Impact Lab,including Hannah Hess;Gallup,including Jon Clif-ton and Andrew Rzepa;the Global Policy Laboratory,including Solomon Hsiang,Jonathan P
51、roctor and Luke Sherman;the Human Development and Capability Association,including Ann Mitchell and Melanie Walker;the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,including Luis Gomez Echeverri,Pratik Patil and Ele-na Rovenskaya;the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative,including
52、Sabina Alkire,Maya Evans,Alexandra For-tacz and Usha Kanagaratnam;the World Bank,including Indermit Gill and Luis Felipe Lpez-Calva;the World Inequal-ity Lab,including Lucas Chancel;as well as research collaborations with Ingvild Alms,David Blanchflower,Alexander Bryson,Erle Ellis,Nicholas Depsky,Pa
53、ul Hufe,Diren Kocakusak,Justin E.Lane,Stephen Sepaniak and F.LeRon Shults.Several consultations with thematic and regional experts and numerous infor-mal consultations with many individuals without a formal advisory role were held in the process of preparing this years Report.We are grateful for inp
54、ut in these consultations from Ima Abdul Rahim,Lina Abirafeh,Jeremy Adelman,Arun Agrawal,Aroe Ajani,Fonteh Akum,Henry Alinaitwe,Ingvild Alms,Tariq Al-Olaimy,Sherine Al-Shawarby,Phillip Apuuli Kasaija,Elsie Attafuah,Tan Sri Azman Hj Mokhtar,Joe AcknowledgementsviiiHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024Ba
55、k-Coleman,Anne Bardsley,Carl Berg-strom,Amar Bhattacharya,Debapriya Bhattacharya,Haroon Bhorat,Roberto Bissio,Lia Brazil,Carlos Brown,Joanna Bryson,Vural akr,Miguel Centeno,Tan Sri Dato Seri Jeffrey Cheah,Sysan Clayton,Sarah Cliffe,Dawnelle Clyne,Flavio Comim,Alistair Cook,Vanesa DAlessandre,Yves Da
56、ccord,Isabel de Saint Malo,Dagomar Degroot,Faisal Devji,Catherine DIgnazio,Ishac Diwan,Jamie Drummond,Jaco Eyelu,Nadim Farajalla,Hege Fisknes,Peter Frankopan,Jemima Garcia-Godos,Nilanjan Ghosh,Andrew Grotto,John Haldon,Corinne Heckmann,Oli Henman,Luis Hernn Var-gas,Eria Hisali,Karla Hoff,Nadim Houry
57、,Saleemul Huq,Nigar Islamli,Andry Ivanov,Jennifer Jacquet,Rasha Jarhum,Xu Jin,Mitzi Jonelle Tan,Tehmina Kaoosji,Ibrahim Kasirye,Lina Khatib,Julius Kiiza,Ruth Kita-mirike,Martin Korte,Nagesh Kumar,Oliver Lacey Hall,Michle Lamont,Lyse Langlois,Julia Leininger,Sharachchandra Lele,Hod Lipson,Genevieve L
58、ively,Hela Lotz-Sisitka,Winnifred Louis,Fatmata Lovetta Sesay,Tan Sri Jamilah Mahmod,Andrs Malamud,Beckie Malay,Yadvinder Malhi,Kanchan K.Malik,Heghine Manasyan,Emma Marris,Steve McCorriston,Tarik Megerisi,Emel Memis,Rana Mitter,Ro-man Mogilevskii,Petra Molnar,Samar Muhareb,Khalid Mustafa Medani,Mwa
59、m-butsya Ndebesa,Sjeila Ngatria,Dianah Ngui Muchai,Ibrahim Okumu,Iliana Olivi,Margie Ong,Mavis Owusu-Gyamfi,Foteini Papagioti,Toril-Iren Pedersen,Tawana Petty,Seeta Prabhu,Cristelle Pratt,Satin Seri Sunita Rajakumar,Michael Robbins,Emma Ruttkamp-Bloem,Silvia Salvatici,Marc Saner,Mahendhiran Sanggara
60、n Nair,Carlos Scartascini,Mario Scharfbilli,Kareem Shaheen,Binyam Sisay Mendisu,Scott Smith,Masashi Soga,Hema Sridar,Erika Stael von Holstein,Abida Suleri,Zeynep Tufekci,Gatoloaifaana Tilianamua Afamasaga,Lucas Tse,Tania Vsquez Luque,Harvey Whitehouse,Deborah Will-ing,John Willshire,Jiajun Xu,Ong Ke
61、ng Yong,Zhang Yujun,Anis Yuszal Yusoff and Yingqin Zheng.We are thankful for especially close dialogues at Duke University,with Stephanie Alt Lamm,Sarah Bermeo,Nadia Chamberlain,Judith Kelley,An-irudh Krishna,Eddy Malesky and Kerilyn Shewel;at the University of Chicago,with Natalie Arsenault,Alison
62、Baulos,Luis Bettencourt,Christopher Blattman,Emily Grant,Michael Greenstone,Gary Herri-gel and Mathias Staisch;at Georgetown University,with Dagomar Degroot;and at Yale University,with David Alzate,David Engerman,Jessica Faieta,Ardina Hasan-basri,Jim Levinsohn,Costas Meghir,Aish-warya Ratan,Ernesto
63、Zedillo and with Yale Greenberg World Fellow Emma Sky.We appreciate the collaboration of academics from the South-South Global Thinkers.Further support was also extended by others too numerous to mention here.Consultations are listed at https:/hdr.undp.org/towards-hdr-2023.Contributions,sup-port and
64、 assistance from many colleagues across the UN family is gratefully acknowl-edged.They include the Executive Office of the Secretary-General,through Michle Griffin;the UN Office of South-South Coop-eration,including Dima Al-Khatib,Zanofer Ismalbebbe and Naveeda Nazir;the Unit-ed Nations SDG Action C
65、ampaign,includ-ing Xavier Longan,Marina Ponti and Olcay Tetik;the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women,including Ginette Azcona and Papa Seck;the International Labour Organization,including Rafael Daz de Medina,Youcef Ghellab,Roger Gomis,Steven Kapsos and Sangeon Le
66、e;the United Nations Popula-tion Division,including Patrick Gerland;the United Nations Environment Programme,including Dany Ghafari;the United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Orga-nization Institute for Statistics,including Olivier Lab,Alasdair McWilliam,Patrick Montjouides and Said Ould
67、 Ahmedou Voffal;and the United Nations University World Institute for Development Econom-ics Research,including Rahul Lahoti.All United Nations Development Programme(UNDP)regional and central bureaus and country offices are also acknowledged with much gratitude.Colleagues in UNDP provided advice and
68、 inputs and organized consultations.We are grateful to Jairo Acuna Alfaro,Tehmina Akhtar,Abdallah Al Dardari,Da-rah Aljoudar,Elsie Attafuah,Julie Axelsen,Niloy Banerjee,Fiona Bayat-Renoux,Julie Berg,Tessa Bertrand,Georgiana BragaOrillard,Michele Candotti,Ales-sandra Casazza,Angelique M.Crumbly,Mirko
69、 Ebelshaeuser,Maja Edfast,Ahunna Eziakonwa,Alfonso Fernndez,Almudena Fernndez,Sara Ferrer,Arvinn Gadgil,Raymond Gilpin,Carolina Given Sjlander,George Gray Molina,Janil Greenaway,Niamh Hanafin,Wenwen He,Caroline Hopper-Box,Vanessa Howe-Jones,Ghida Ismail,Tomohiro Kawase,Julia Kercher,Adithya Kumar,Ra
70、quel Lagunas,Bas Leurs,Sarah Lister,Fatmata Lovetta Sesay,Zhaoxi Meng,Ulrika Moder,Luca Monge Roggarello,Annet Mpabulungi Wakabi,Michelle Muschett,Marcos Athias Neto,Sjeila Ngatria,Shoko Noda,Mizuho Okimoto-Kaewtathip,Robert Opp,Anna Ortubia,Thangavel Palanivel,Prachi Pali-wal,Stefano Pettinato,Rica
71、rdo Pineda,Sarah Poole,Corli Pretorius,Georgios Profiliotis,Soha Rasheed,Luca Renda,Carolina Rivera Vzquez,Sara Maaria Saastamoinen,Philip Schellekens,Bahdja Sehli,Narue Shiki,Ashvinder Singh Pramjit Singh,Ben Slay,Anca Stoica,Rania Tarazi,David Tat Ui Tan,Claire van der Vaeren,Federico Vaz,Francis
72、Wasswa,Kanni Wignaraja,Bronwyn Williams,Clarise Wilson,Haoliang Xu,Shinobu Yamaguchi and Ivana ivkovi.We are also grateful to all the UNDP Signals Scanners and the UNDP Accelerator Labs that participated in consultations.We were fortunate to have the support of operations consultants Judey Austin,Be
73、atrice Chinapen and Milagros Feliciano and talented interns and fact checkers:Dop Adjor,Natalia Aguilar Ruiz,Edwige Bayili,Parth Chawla,Seussler Daniel,Modi Michael Elisa,Morgane Hamza,Sijie Han,Yingyilong Hu,Jessica Karki,Alive Lassman,Danielle Mallon,Luiza Naka-mura,Paricia Noguieira,Nazifa Rafa,M
74、aria Nathalia Ramirez,Yu-Ya Rong,Laura San-zarello,Zahraa Shabana,Ching To Chung,Diego Vallejo,Yuqing Wang,Xuan Yi and Moya Zhu.The Human Development Report Of-fice also extends its sincere gratitude to the Republic of Korea as well as the Governments of Japan and Portugal for their financial contri
75、butions.Their ongoing ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSixsupport is much appreciated and remains essential.We are grateful for the highly profes-sional work of our editors and layout artists at Communications Development Incor-poratedled by Bruce Ross-Larson with Joe Caponio,Meta de Coquereaumont,Mike Crumplar,Chris
76、topher Trott and Elaine Wilson.Bruce,especially,is so much part of the process that he feels part of the team,as he has been for all the Human Development Reports over the decades.We would like to warmly invoke the memory of Inge Kaul,an early leader of the Human Development Report Office and a pion
77、eer on global public goods to which this Report returns and a fiercely independent thinker and mentor.Inge is very much missed.It is hard to express how much we owe to UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner.In giving us the space and freedom to explore and take risks,to try new things not only in Human De
78、vel-opment Reports but beyond,including unprecedented innovations such as the Human Climate Horizons Platform(https:/horizons.hdr.undp.org/)he has always been generous in sharing his time(a precious commodity!)and wis-dom with the team.Our office is named the Human Development Report Office,but,as h
79、e always reminds us,the goal is not to produce a report but to advance debates around human development and to invite decisionmakers to engage with the analysis.As always,we strive to meet this aspiration.Pedro ConceioDirectorHuman Development Report Office ContentsForeword vAcknowledgements viiSnap
80、shot 1Overview 11PART IAdvancing human development in an interdependent world 25CHAPTER 1Human development suffers when interdependence is mismanaged 27Building forward weaker?An unequal and incomplete recovery in human development from the 20202021 dip 29Mismanaging interdependence imposes costs on
81、 human development 34Prospects for advancing agency and wellbeing will be shaped by the management of interdependence 38CHAPTER 2Global interdependence persistsbut is being reshaped 45The persistence of global ties a hyperconnected world with multiple global interdependences 47Global interdependence
82、 is being reshaped and likely to persist well into the future 56CHAPTER 3Providing global public goods to manage interdependence 71What are global public goods?73What does it take to provide global public goods?They are not created equal 76Applying a global public goods lens to the response to Covid
83、-19 79PART IIReimagining cooperation by expanding agency and easing polarization 97CHAPTER 4Examining how to enhance collective action 99Start with a standard selfish choice model of behaviour 102Apply insights from behavioural science,but handle with care 105Recognize how culture shapes behaviour a
84、nd institutions 109CHAPTER 5Expanding agency for collective action 143How agency gaps hinder collective action 145Narrowing agency gaps to foster collective action 148Institutions to bring collective action to scale people-centred,co-owned and future-oriented 158CHAPTER 6Breaking the gridlock to enh
85、ance collective action 173How does political polarization come about?175Political polarization imperils cooperation 177Enhancing international collective action now 180Notes 207References 227BOXESO.1 Global public goods 101:What are summation,best-shot and weakest-link global public goods?182.1 A sm
86、artphones global journey a tale of cross-border economic,social and environmental impacts 492.2 Human mobility in the face of climate change:The case of Viet Nam 60S2.2.1 Relational and interdependent wellbeing 683.1 Digital public infrastructure and digital public goods 753.2 What drives countries
87、to contribute to global public goods?794.1 A standard selfish choice model of behaviour 1034.2 A behavioural choice model of decisionmaking 1064.3 Social preferences can scale up 1074.4“Its not a lie if you believe it”Beliefs,social norms and collective action 1084.5 The promise and peril of nudges
88、in changing behaviour 1114.6 Social context shapes what people do and how they see themselves 1124.7 Where are the politics?1145.1 Promoting more deliberative forms of citizen participation 1555.2 Social dialogue in the world of work 1556.1 Public reasoning and deliberation for human development 176
89、FIGURESS.1 A permanent shift in the Human Development Index(HDI)trajectory?4S.2 Recovery of Human Development Index(HDI)values since the 20202021 decline is projected to be highly unequal 4S.3 Inequality between very high Human Development Index(HDI)and low HDI countries is increasing,bucking long-r
90、un declines 5S.4 Self-reported stress rose in most countries,even before the Covid-19 pandemic 6S.5 The democracy paradox?Unwavering support for democracy but increasing support for leaders who may undermine it 7CONTENTSxiS.6 Reasons for hope:Improvements on the Human Development Index without incre
91、asing planetary pressures 8S.7 Agency gaps in collective action are higher than those in control over ones own life 9O.1 War deaths and forced displacement are getting much worse 13O.2 Climate change could result in an explosion of inequalities 14O.3 Economic interdependence is stabilizing at very h
92、igh levels 15O.4 Profit shifting to tax havens has skyrocketed 16O.5 Lower confidence in national government tends to correlate with lower confidence in the United Nations 19O.6 Freedom of expression goes hand-in-hand with agency and has been receding in recent years 21O.7 The higher the perceived h
93、uman insecurity,the lower the sense of control over ones own life 21O.8 The perception of agency(control over ones own life)is shaped by income 22O.9 Gender equality in politics is being constrained by biased social norms against women 231.1 The global Human Development Index(HDI)value is below its
94、pre-2019 trend 301.2 The recovery in Human Development Index(HDI)values is incomplete 311.3 The recovery in Human Development Index(HDI)values is projected to be highly unequal 311.4 Low Human Development Index(HDI)countries have been left behind 321.5 Each developing regions projected 2023 Human De
95、velopment Index value is below its pre-2019 trend 331.6 Unprecedented declines in learning outcomes,as measured by PISA test scores 341.7 Civilian fatalities as a result of conflict are surging after years ofdeclining 361.8 People forced to flee their homes trending upwards towards record levels 371
96、.9 Planetary pressures are decoupled from their geographic and temporal effects 381.10 Climate change could result in an explosion of inequalities in human development 391.11 Trends in reducing global hunger have reversed 401.12 The Covid-19 pandemic may have permanently shifted the trajectory for p
97、overty reduction 401.13 Freedom of expression receding in recent years 422.1.Hyperglobalization is down,but interdependence remains unprecedentedly high 482.2 Remittances to low-and middle-income countries are approaching the level of foreign direct investment 502.3 Support for anti-elite politics i
98、s on the rise 522.4 Mismanaged interdependence leads to demand for populism through welfare losses and beliefs 532.5 Even prior to 2020,worry and stress were rising in most countries 542.6 Elites have been able to cash in on hyperglobalization,as profit shifting to tax havens hasskyrocketed 552.7 Di
99、scontent is costly:Lower GDP trajectories in countries with populist episodes 552.8 Violent conflicts affected 15 percent of the global population in 2022 562.9 Inequalities and the Anthropocene higher Human Development Index countries put higher pressures on the planet 572.10 Pushing possibility fr
100、ontiers higher Human Development Index values at lower planetary pressures 572.11 Decoupling of planetary pressures and the Human Development Index(HDI)582.12 Digital technologies are driving shifts in global economic interdependence,with dramatic increases in modern service exports since 2000 613.1
101、 Authorization for Covid-19 vaccines was unprecedently fast 82S3.1.1 About one-third of the worlds fishery stocks are overfished 844.1 Behavioural change and institutional reform influence each otherjointly shaping and being shaped by social choice procedures 1024.2 Widespread efforts draw on behavi
102、oural insights to inform publicpolicy 1104.3 Effects of several behavioural phenomena are stronger in more educated and wealthier segments of the population 1154.4 There are widespread differences in fairness preferences around the world 1164.5 The world is undergoing a major transition from acceler
103、ating to decelerating population growth 119S4.2.1 The identification of 180 cognitive biases makes it hard to derive insights about how to change behaviour to enhance collective action 126S4.4.1 Most people in African countries think that not paying taxes on income is at least“wrong,but understandab
104、le”and are closer to agreeing than to disagreeing that the tax authority always has the right to make people pay taxes 137S4.4.2 Redistribution through taxation is not a salient election issue in most African countries,nor is it a strong priority of their citizens 1385.1 The democracy paradox?Unwave
105、ring support for democracy along with increasing support for leaders who may undermine it 1475.2 Large and increasing shares of the population support leaders who may bypass democratic norms and practices,19942022 1485.3 Economic shocks are associated with lower trust in institutions but the relatio
106、nship is weaker for trust in the United Nations and in one another 1495.4 Agency gaps in collective action are higher than those in control over ones own life 1505.5 Reducing corruption increases confidence in government but so does narrowing agency gaps 1505.6 Agency in control over ones own life a
107、nd trust 1515.7 The perception of agency(control over ones own life)is shaped by income 1525.8 The higher the income,the more likely people are to report being interested in politics and voting 1525.9 The higher the education level,the more likely people are to report being interested in politics an
108、d voting 1525.10 The higher the perceived human insecurity,the lower the sense of control over ones own life 1535.11 Perceived human insecurity is related to generalized trust,especially for higher Human Development Index(HDI)groups 1545.12 Perceived human insecurity is related to confidence in stat
109、e institutions 1545.13 Biased gender social norms limit womens political agency 1575.14 Gender inequalities in agency gaps in facing future disasters are pervasive 158S5.1.1 Proposed elements of social cohesion 1646.1 Support for national redistribution is correlated with support for global redistri
110、bution in Germany,but some people want extensive national and very little global redistribution and vice-versa 1826.2 More universalist beliefs are correlated with concerns both for the global poor and for the global environment 183xiiHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/20246.3 Universalist beliefs are as
111、sociated with global redistribution and global environment in high-income countries,but the cultural context matters 1836.4 Confidence in national institutions is correlated with confidence in multilateral institutions,key for international collective action 1846.5 Confidence in several institutions
112、 is highly correlated with confidence in the national government 1856.6 The misperception of the share of immigrants in the population is high and widely shared across society 187S6.1.1 How group identification might increase polarization 190S6.2.1 Half a billion people live in politically estranged
113、 situations,about five times more than in 2010 195SPOTLIGHTS2.1 The human toll of mismanaging interdependence:Insights from national and international historyPatricia Clavin 632.2 Managing global interdependence to advance human development 673.1 The global commons of ocean fisheriesScott Barrett 84
114、3.2 Assessing the net benefits from global public goods and their distributionRonald U.Mendoza and Jurel Yap 893.3 How inequity in access to Covid-19 vaccines unfolded:An account using a global public goods lens 944.1 A technology-centred approach to climate change negotiations Scott Barrett 1204.2
115、Using insights from behavioural science:Watch out!1254.3 Cultural evolution and development policyJoseph Henrich 1294.4 The role of trust and norms in tax compliance in Africa OddHelge Fjeldstad and Ingrid Hoem Sjursen 1355.1 Strengthening social cohesion to mitigate human insecurity:Promise and per
116、ilJulia Leininger,Armin von Schiller and Charlotte Fiedler 1635.2 Solidarity and creative resolveNicole Hassoun 1675.3 The role of multilateral development banks in the provision of global public goodsJos Antonio Ocampo and Karla Daniela Gonzlez 1706.1 Identity,polarization and their societal and po
117、litical consequences Robert Bhm,Philipp Sprengholz,Luca Henkel and Cornelia Betsch 1906.2 International collective action in a time of geopolitical upheaval 1946.3 Geopolitics and the early history of the United Nations:Friendor foe?Andrew Thompson 1976.4(Mis)perceiving othersLeonardo Bursztyn 201TA
118、BLES3.1 Recommendations for how to improve the provision of different types of global public goods 77S3.2.1 Summary of global public good assessments:Five cases 93S4.4.1 Types of norms and examples 1366.1 Confidence in national and international institutions is higher among people who trust others 1
119、84STATISTICAL ANNEXReaders guide 269HUMAN DEVELOPMENT COMPOSITE INDICES 1 Human Development Index and its components 2742 Human Development Index trends,19902022 2793 Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index 2834 Gender Development Index 2885 Gender Inequality Index 2936 Multidimensional Poverty
120、Index:developing countries 2987 Planetary pressures-adjusted Human Development Index 301Developing regions 306Statistical references 3071Breaking the gridlockA snapshot of the 2023/2024 Human Development Report2HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024Breaking the gridlock A snapshot of the 2023/2024 Human
121、 Development ReportSNAPSHOT BREAKING THE GRIDLOCK3We can do better than this.Better than runaway cli-mate change and pandemics.Better than a spate of unconstitutional transfers of power amid a rising,globalizing tide of populism.Better than cascading human rights violations and unconscionable massa-
122、cres of people in their homes and civic venues,in hos-pitals,schools and shelters.We must do better than a world always on the brink,a socioecological house of cards.We owe it to our-selves,to each other,to our children and their children.We have so much going for us.We know what the global challeng
123、es are and who will be most affected by them.And we know there will surely be more that we cannot anticipate today.We know which choices offer better opportunities for peace,shared prosperity and sustainability,better ways to navigate interacting layers of uncertainty and interlinked planetary surpr
124、ises.1We enjoy unprecedented wealth,knowhow and technology unimaginable to our ancestors that with more equitable distribution and use could power bold and necessary choices for peace and for sustainable,in-clusive human development on which peace depends.So why does pursuing the ambitions of the 20
125、30 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement feel like a half-hearted slog through quicksand?Why in many places does restoring peace,even pauses or ceasefires as hopeful preludes to peace,feel so elusive?Why are we immobilized on digital governance while artificial intelligence race
126、s ahead in a data goldrush?In short,why are we so stuck?And how do we get unstuck without resorting myopically to vio-lence or isolationism?These questions motivate the 2023/2024 Human Development Report.Sharp questions belie their complexity;issues with power disparities at their core often defy ea
127、sy expla-nation.Magic bullets entice but mislead siren songs peddled by sloganeering that exploits group-based grievances.Slick solutions and simple recipes poison our willingness to do the hard work of overcoming polarization.Geopolitical quagmires abound,driven by shift-ing power dynamics among st
128、ates and by national gazes yanked inward by inequalities,insecurity and polarization,all recurring themes in this and recent Human Development Reports.Yet we need not sit on our hands simply because great power competition is heating up while countries underrepresented in glob-al governance seek a g
129、reater say in matters of global import.Recall that global cooperation on smallpox eradication and protection of the ozone layer,among other important issues such as nuclear nonprolifera-tion,happened over the course of the Cold War.Slivers of hope have emerged even now.The Ukraine grain deal,before
130、its suspension in 2023,averted widespread food insecurity,which would have hurt poorer countries and poorer people most.The production of Covid-19 vaccines,which saved millions of lives,relies on global supply chains,al-though,tragically,many more lives could have been saved if vaccine coverage had
131、been more equitable.2 Countries continue to cooperate on genomic se-quencing of variants,even as shameful inequities in vaccine access persist.3 At the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change,the world established a new loss and dam-age fund to benefit more th
132、an 3billion people,with pledges totalling over$600million.4 Global clean energy investment,and the jobs and opportunities that come with it,reached an all-time high of$1.8tril-lion in 2023(equivalent to the size of the economy of the Republic of Korea),almost twice the amount in 2020.5However challe
133、nging they are,geopolitics are sim-ply not an excuse to stay stuck in gridlock.There are paths through.Reimagining and fully providing glob-al public goods in ways that meet national develop-ment needs at the same time is one of them.The 20212022 Human Development Report ar-gued that a new uncertain
134、ty complex is unsettling lives the world over and dragging on human development.The global Human Development Index(HDI)value fell for the first time ever in both 2020 and 2021.The global HDI value has since rebounded to a projected record high in 2023(figure S.1).All compo-nents of the global HDI ar
135、e projected to exceed their pre-2019 values.6Despite being projected to reach a new high,the global HDI value would still be below trend.And the global figure masks disturbing divergence across countries:every Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development country is projected to have recove
136、red,but only about half of the Least 4HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024Developed Countries are projected to have done so(figure S.2).After 20 years of steady progress,ine-quality between countries at the upper and lower ends of the HDI has reversed course,ticking up each year since 2020(figure S.3)
137、.If the global HDI value continues to evolve below the pre-2019 trend,as it has since 2020,losses will be permanent.Based on the 19992019 trend,the glob-al HDI value was on track to cross the threshold defin-ing very high human development(a value of 0.800)by 2030coinciding with the deadline to meet
138、 the Sustainable Development Goals.Now,the world is off track.Indeed,every regions projected 2023 HDI value falls below its pre-2019 trend.Whatever its future trajectory,the global HDI value will capture incompletely,if at all many other important ele-ments,such as the debilitating effects of chroni
139、c illness or the spikes in mental health disorders or in violence against women,all restricting peoples possibilities for their lives.For rich and poor countries alike some loss-es will never be recovered.Whatever the charts and indicators may say about people today,the Covid-19 pandemic took some 1
140、5million lives.7 We cannot get them back.Nor the time siphoned off in so many ways in isolation,in caregiving,in not attending school.The HDI is an important,if crude,yardstick for human development.Just a few years ago wellbeing had never been higher,poverty never lower.Yet people Figure S.1 A perm
141、anent shift in the Human Development Index(HDI)trajectory?0.6000.6500.7000.7500.8001999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023(projected)Global HDI value200212023(projected)Actual Pre-2019 trendNote:The global HDI value for 2023 is a projection.The pre-2019 trend is b
142、ased on the evolution of the global HDI value in the previous 20 years.Source:Human Development Report Office calculations based on data from Barro and Lee(2018),IMF(2023d),UNDESA(2022,2023),UNESCO Institute for Statistics(2023),United Nations Statistics Division(2023)and World Bank(2023).Figure S.2
143、 Recovery of Human Development Index(HDI)values since the 20202021 decline is projected to be highly unequalCountry recovery by 2023 from the HDI setback in 2020 or 202149%recoveredLeast DevelopedCountries51%did not recoverOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development100%recoveredNote:Least
144、 Developed Countries have low levels of income and face vulner-abilities that make them“the poorest and weakest segment”of the interna-tional community(https:/www.un.org/ohrlls/content/about-least-developed-countries).Recovery means that countries that suffered a decline in HDI value in 2020 or 2021
145、 are projected to reach or surpass their pre-decline HDI value by 2023.Source:Human Development Report Office calculations based on data from Barro and Lee(2018),IMF(2023d),UNDESA(2022,2023),UNESCO Institute for Statistics(2023),United Nations Statistics Division(2023)and World Bank(2023).SNAPSHOT B
146、REAKING THE GRIDLOCK5around the world were reporting high levels of sad-ness,stress and worry(figure S.4).8 Those self-reported measures have since risen for nearly 3billion people.9 And while 9 in 10 people show unwavering support for the ideal of democracy,there has been an increase in those suppo
147、rting leaders who may undermine it:today,for the first time ever,more than half the global population supports such leaders(figure S.5).10The uncertainty complex has cast a very long shad-ow on human development writ large,with recent years marking perhaps an unfortunate and avoidable fork in its pa
148、th rather than a short-lived setback.What gives?Progress feels harder to grasp,especially when planetary pressures are brought into view;our standard development measures are clearly miss-ing some things.One of those things may be the disempowerment of people gaps in human agency which is taking com
149、bined hits from new configu-rations of global complexity and interdependence,uncertainty,insecurity and polarization.People are looking for answers and a way forward.This can be channelled helpfully via shared am-bition that brings everyone along(not necessarily on everything)in areas of cooperation
150、 that are not zero-sum,enabled by cooperative narratives and institutions built on a bedrock of generalized trust.Over the past 10 years both very high and high HDI countries have improved their HDI values without increasing planetary pressures,a shift from previous trends of the two increasing toge
151、ther,so there are rea-sons to hope that this might be possible(figureS.6).Or it can be channelled,as it seems now,into vi-cious cycles of demonizing blame games that breed,at best,suspicion and distrust and,at worst,preju-dice,discrimination and violence.Troublingly,populism has exploded,blowing pas
152、t last centurys peaks,which roughly corresponded to periods of mismanaged globalization.11 That is hap-pening alongside,and in many cases exploiting,wick-ed forms of polarization,such as the winnowing and hardening of narrow identities,a sort of coercion or unfreedom enabled,if not outright celebrat
153、ed,by an ongoing fetishization of so-called rational self-interest.Peoples ability to determine for themselves what it means to live a good life,including defining and reas-sessing their responsibilities to other people and to the planet,has been crowded out in many ways.Metastat-ic hands-off dogma
154、hides the raiding of the economic and ecological cookie jar.Dog-eat-dog and beggar-thy-neighbour mindsets harken back to mercantilist eras.And policies and institutions including those Figure S.3 Inequality between very high Human Development Index(HDI)and low HDI countries is increasing,bucking lon
155、g-run declines0.380.400.420.4462005200200.3820172023(projected)20200.39Diference in HDI value between very high and low HDI countries20083(projected)Note:The difference in HDI values for 2023 is based on projections.Source:Human Development Report Office calculations
156、 based on data from Barro and Lee(2018),IMF(2023),UNDESA(2022,2023),UNESCO Institute for Statistics(2023),United Nations Statistics Division(2023)and World Bank(2023).6HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024that have mismanaged globalized market dynamics default to“me”before“we.”We are at an unfortunate
157、crossroad.Polarization and distrust are on a collision course with an ailing planet.Insecurity and inequalities have a lot to do with it.So does a constellation of disempowering narratives that engender defensive fatalism and cat-astrophic inertia all circumscribed and,in some sense fuelled by,dizzy
158、ing political polarization.What can we do to help turn things around?Quite a lot.Build a 21st century architecture for global public goodsFirst,we should build out a 21st century architecture to deliver the global public goods that we all depend on.It would function as a third track to international
159、 cooperation,complementing development assis-tance focused on poorer countries and humanitarian assistance focused on emergencies.These tracks are not silos.Distinctively,a global public goods archi-tecture would aim for transfers from rich countries to poorer ones that advance goals for every count
160、ry to benefit.Every country has a chance to have a say,as well as an opportunity to contribute.As such,this third track is intrinsically multilateral.Global public goods will require additional financ-ing as a complement,rather than substitute for or competitor,to traditional development assistance.
161、The financing can come in many forms.For exam-ple,when some portion of an investment in a poorer country generates global benefits,the corresponding financing(or technology transfer)should tend to be concessional,so that alignment is achieved between who benefits(the rest of the world)and who pays(t
162、he Figure S.4 Self-reported stress rose in most countries,even before the Covid-19 pandemicChange in the percentage of people reporting experiencing stress,20112019(percentage points)Low HDIgroupMedium HDIgroupHigh HDIgroupVery high HDIgroup806040200204060DecreaseIncrease24 out of 30 countries25 out
163、 of 32 countries24 out of 40 countries39 out of 59countries HDI is Human Development Index.Note:Values refer to the change in the percentage of people who reported experiencing stress“during a lot of the day yesterday.”Source:Human Development Report Office,based on Gallup(2023).SNAPSHOT BREAKING TH
164、E GRIDLOCK7rest of the world).The flipside is the case of hazards or shocks that are not of a single countrys making.Automatic triggers can be embedded in bonds or loan agreements,especially state-contingent debt in-struments,to help poorer countries cope with crises that they had little part in gen
165、erating,as with climate change.This would create more predictable condi-tions in navigating an uncertain world that could mo-bilize and attract private finance to those countries.Dial down temperatures and push back polarizationSecond,we need to dial down the temperature and push back on polarizatio
166、n,which poisons practically everything it touches and impedes international co-operation.Providing global public goods will help.So will correcting misperceptions about other peoples preferences and motivations.All too often people make biased assumptions about other people,in-cluding people on the
167、other side of political divides.Often,people agree with one another more than they think.For example,while 69percent of peo-ple around the world report being willing to sacrifice some of their income to contribute to climate change mitigation,only 43percent perceive others believ-ing the same(a 26pe
168、rcentage point misperception gap).12 The result is a false social reality of pluralistic ignorance where incorrect beliefs about others ham-strings cooperation that,if recognized and corrected,could help build collective action on climate.Not all polarization can be reduced to mispercep-tion,however
169、 big a role it plays.That makes it impor-tant to create spaces of deliberation to bridge divides.Figure S.5 The democracy paradox?Unwavering support for democracy but increasing support for leaders who may undermine itPercent of population that thinks positively about having a democratic systemPerce
170、nt of population that thinks positively about leaders who may undermine democracy920042005200920022Majority of population thinks positively about democracy but also about leaders who may undermine itMajority of population thinks positively about democracyand leaders who do not
171、undermine it605040304050Note:Data are population-weighted averages for a panel of countries representing 76 percent of the global population.Percent of population on the verti-cal axis refers to people who responded that having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament a
172、nd elections is“very good”or“fairly good.”Percent of population on the horizontal axis refers to people who responded that having a democratic political system is“very good”or“fairly good.”Source:Human Development Report Office based on data from multiple waves of the World Values Survey(Inglehart a
173、nd others 2022).8HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024Citizen assemblies can function in this way,but they are not the only means.Practical schemes to facili-tate more deliberative processing of information can help counter the growing danger of people becoming trapped in beliefs that have no basis in
174、fact.13 In con-texts of intergroup conflict,presenting information in a frame that does not provoke anger can be depo-larizing.14 Interventions that rely on qualitative and narrative-based approaches,such as storytelling and vignettes,are particularly effective.15The key words are deliberate and del
175、iberative.Po-larization is more likely to self-destruct badly than to self-correct helpfully.Steady positive pressure that en-courages empathy,builds interpersonal trust and em-phasizes overlapping,shared identities is the way to go.Narrow agency gapsThird,we need to narrow agency gaps fuelled in pa
176、rt by the divergence between what people believe is possible or probable and what is objectively possi-ble.16 Agency gaps are also apparent in half of people worldwide reporting that they have no or limited con-trol over their lives and more than two-thirds perceiv-ing that they have little influenc
177、e in the decisions of their government(figure S.7).To help narrow agency gaps,institutions need to become more people-centred,co-owned and future-oriented.People-centred is about placing ultimate objectives in terms of human development and human security,recognizing the interdependence of people an
178、d the planet.Co-owned is about the fair distribution of the power to set collective goals,the responsibilities to pursue them and the resulting outcomes.It stresses the for-mation of social norms that cultivate the value of col-lective achievements and cooperative behaviour.17Future-oriented is abou
179、t focusing on what we can shape and create if we work together,enriching the space for deliberation and agreement.18 In the face of challenges,a future-oriented perspective opens pos-sibilities for hope and creative resolve.Tailoring these principles to different contexts will put us on the road to
180、productive dialogue and action,Figure S.6 Reasons for hope:Improvements on the Human Development Index without increasing planetary pressures0.0000.0200.0400.0600.0800.1000.1200.1400.1600.1800.3500.4500.5500.6500.7500.8500.950Human Development Index(HDI)valueIndex of Planetary Pressures value1990202
181、202The 2022 HDI value of medium HDI countries is similar to the HDI value of high HDI countriesin 2002 but with lower planetary pressuresThe HDI value of high HDI countries is approachingthe HDI value of very high HDI countries in1990 but with lower planetary pressuresThe 2022
182、HDI value of low HDI countries is similar to the HDI value of medium HDI countriesin 2003 but with lower planetary pressuresLow HDIcountriesMedium HDIcountriesHigh HDIcountriesVery high HDIcountriesNote:The Index of Planetary Pressures is constructed using the per capita levels of carbon dioxide emi
183、ssions(production)and material footprint in each country(it is 1 minus the adjustment factor for planetary pressures presented in table 7 in the Statistical Annex).Source:Human Development Report Office.See specific sources in tables 2 and 7 in the Statistical Annex.SNAPSHOT BREAKING THE GRIDLOCK9wh
184、ich must be flexible and iterative amid so much uncertainty,for lessons to inform course corrections.They will help us break through the tyranny of single adversarial narratives and single exclusive identities.They will help us better manage evolving global interdependence.They will help us cooperat
185、ively and peacefully break through the global gridlock.Figure S.7 Agency gaps in collective action are higher than those in control over ones own lifeControl over own life5 in 10 or about half the worlds people report not being in control of their own livesVoice in political system7 in 10 or 68 perc
186、ent of people report that they have little influence in the decisions of their governmentNote:Agency is the ability of people to act as agents who can do effective things based on their commitments(Sen 2013).It is proxied by two indica-tors:the share of the population that reported feeling in contro
187、l over their lives(measured on a scale of 110,where 13 indicates an acute agency gap,47 indicates a moderate agency gap and 810 indicates no agency gap)andthe share of the population that reported feeling that their voice is heard in the political system(those who responded“A great deal”or“A lot”).D
188、ata are computed using microdata and equal weights across countries.Source:Human Development Report Office based on data from wave 7(20172022)of the World Values Survey(Inglehart and others 2022).11OVERVIEWManaging interdependence in a polarized world12HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024OVERVIEWManag
189、ing interdependence in a polarized worldOVERVIEW MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCE IN A POLARIZED WORLD13Mismanaged global interdependence hurts peopleThe human toll of mismanaged interdependence is huge in lives lost or uprooted,in opportunities for-gone,in feelings of despair.Aggression,conflict and violen
190、ce are extreme realities when complex webs of interdependence fester,especially against backdrops of prolonged power imbalances.From wars in Gaza and Ukraine to Sudan,Yemen and elsewhere,to gang violence and civil insecuri-ty,peace and stability are under strain or breaking down at alarming rates.La
191、rge-scale conflicts involv-ing major powers are escalating.War fatalities have jumped(figure O.1).Sadly,we live in a violent new era characterized by the highest level of state-based armed conflicts since 1945 and a growing share of one-sided conflicts where unarmed civil populations are being attac
192、ked.1Violence and peace can both be contagious.Major political events such as coups,revolutions and dem-ocratic transitions have a habit of spilling across bor-ders.Conflicts often change the perception of war,making it more acceptable and increasing the likeli-hood of violent outbreaks elsewhere.In
193、 2022 the number of forcibly displaced people in the world reached 108 million,the highest level since World War II(figure O.1)and more than two and a half times the level in 2010.2Violent conflicts and their consequences for people are the tip of the iceberg.Gridlock means that systemic risks arisi
194、ng from global interdependence are misman-aged or simply unaddressed,that people are walloped by surprises not capitalizing on them.In extreme cases surprises spiral into full blown crises,ricocheting and amplifying in unexpected ways in an unequal,tightly knit world.The extreme is becoming the norm
195、.A long series of disease outbreaks preceded the Covid-19 pandemic,which caught the world flatfoot-ed and struggling for a modicum of global coherence over the course of the emergency.Some 15million people(perhaps more)died worldwide,3 and the glob-al Human Development Index value tanked.In addition
196、 to huge,unjust divides in access to effec-tive vaccines,a missing ingredient was trust in our governments and in each other.4 According to one esti-mate,if all countries had attained the levels of interper-sonal trust seen in the top quarter of countries,global infections might have been reduced by
197、 40percent,saving millions of lives.5 In polarizing societies around the world,vaccine status identification became another factional marker separating one camp from the other.6The Covid-19 vaccine story exemplifies the pos-sibilities of global cooperation,as well as the grave injustices that can re
198、sult when it breaks down.The development of mRNA vaccines relied heavily on cross-border,cross-regional partnerships for sourcing components,7 for clinical development and trials8 and Figure O.1 War deaths and forced displacement are getting much worse020406080100120050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0
199、00020022004200620082001620182020Fatalities in state-based conflictsDisplaced people,total(millions)2022Source:Uppsala Conflict Data Program 2023;UNHCR 2023c.14HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024for manufacturing.But the Covid-19 vaccine story follows pernicious patterns of inequ
200、ality in access to technologies generally,including lifesaving ones.9 The pattern is all too familiar and must be broken for its own sake.And because technological trajecto-ries,from artificial intelligence to synthetic biology,are so steep,so fast and so powerful,the deep cleav-ages between haves a
201、nd have-nots could worsen.Perhaps the greatest casualty of global gridlock,cli-mate change is already exacerbating those cleavages.Last year was the hottest in more than 140 years.10 The average belies considerable regional differences that the United Nations Development Programmes(UNDP)Human Climat
202、e Horizons11 platform projects will worsen under business-as-usual climate scenar-ios(figure O.2),with climate change resulting in an explosion of inequalities.The consequences of climate change are already shaking communities and societies,exacting so-cial,emotional and mental tolls.Among the vario
203、us stressors of climate change is a crippling eco-anxiety,a“generalized sense that the ecological foundations of existence are in the process of collapse.”12 Disap-pearing biodiversity,landscapes and ways of life can be paralysing,skewing major life decisions such as in-vesting in school or having a
204、 child.13 Effectively,this is a restriction on human development in freedoms and possibilities in life owing to both the reality of human-induced planetary pressures and how that reality is mediated by technical reports,the popular press and political leaders.Narratives of shared fu-tures rooted in
205、denialism,fatalism or fearmongering leave little space for agency and imagination.Political systems mediate,for good or ill(or both),the impacts of crises on people,and the systems themselves are often shaken by crises,including those from mismanaged global interdependence.The destabilizing effects
206、of shocks,alongside the per-ceived inability of institutions to protect people from them,can stir populism.14Owing to a shock or other cause,populist turns often upset democratic norms and practices and tend to be very costly economically.15 In parallel,recent lit-erature suggests that the economic
207、losses of certain Figure O.2 Climate change could result in an explosion of inequalities020020406080Change in deaths per 100,000 people20202039(Next decades)20402059(Mid-century)20802099(End of century)Arab StatesSouth AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanEast Asia and the
208、 PacificEurope and Central AsiaDevelopedNote:Very high emissions scenario.Source:Human Development Report Office based on Carleton and others(2022)and Human Climate Horizons(https:/horizons.hdr.undp.org/).OVERVIEW MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCE IN A POLARIZED WORLD15kinds of shocks are never fully recover
209、ed,that trajec-tories on growth or poverty reduction permanently downshift following crises.16 When crises and other shocks precede populist turns,and in some cases pre-cipitate them,these populist turns can function as cri-sis refractors and compounders rather than buffers and mitigators,twisting a
210、nd propagating shockwaves in an interdependent world.Global interdependence is evolvingThe Covid-19 pandemic,climate change,and the global surge in populism and conflicts all point to a hard truth:ignoring or otherwise mismanaging glob-al interdependence hurts people.Rolling them back in any time fr
211、ame of relevance,whether for the cli-mate or national security or whatever other reason,is equally foolhardy.Neither business as usual nor fantasies of deglo-balization will do.Instead,we must embrace the complexity of global interdependence and better manage its old and new forms in ways that prote
212、ct and expand peoples possibilities,even as geopolitical fog alongside uncertainty,insecurity,inequalities and polarization complicates hopeful paths forward.By some measures global interconnectivity is at re-cord levels,even as the pace of economic integration stabilizes(figure 0.3).17 Trade in int
213、ermediate goods now slightly exceeds trade in final goods.18 Altogeth-er,goods today travel twice as far as they did 60 years ago,and cross more borders,before final consump-tion.19 The production of smartphones,for example,looks nothing like last centurys assembly line.Vari-ous inputs,from mined co
214、balt on up to batteries and camera modules,crisscross the globe,sometimes re-tracing their steps and too often leaving avoidable so-cial and environmental scars along theway.Global financial interdependence remains high,even if the pace of integration stalled somewhat fol-lowing the 2007/2008 financ
215、ial crisis.20 Low-and middle-income countries debt servicing costs bal-looned over the past two years,following a torrent of interest rate hikes unleashed by central banks to com-bat inflation.21Cross-border flows of information break records every year.Digital services exports now account for Figur
216、e O.3 Economic interdependence is stabilizing at very high levelsSum of global exports and imports as a share of global GDP(%)00704062820002002200420062008200022 Globalization postBretton WoodsHyperglobalization
217、A new era?Globalization postBretton WoodsSource:Human Development Report Office based on the World Banks World Development Indicators database;recreated from Aiyar and others(2023).16HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024more than half of global trade in commercial servic-es.22 Almost the entire global
218、population is now with-in the range of a mobile broadband network,and 5.4billion people were internet users in 2023,though inequities remain stark.23The number of people living outside their country of birth has tripled since 1970,from 84million to al-most 280million in 2020 or nearly 3.6percent of
219、the global population.24 International migration is an exercise of peoples agency,expanding their choices and human potential.25 It creates social,cultural and economic ties between host and sending countries26 and drives cross-border financial flows.27We should expect familiar forms of interdepend-
220、ence to persist well into the future.Regulation that helps manage them better will be crucial,unless the objective is to privatize rewards and socialize risks.28 After all,we sometimes build roads with speed bumps.Yet,interdependence in the 21st century is much more than bean counting based largely
221、on 20th century metrics that is,how many goods or people or bits are moving across borders.The qualities of the interconnections matter,too.Our interdependence is increasingly planetary and instantaneous.Many interdependences among economies,people and planet are emerging and deepening as the Digi-t
222、al Revolution powers ahead and we go deeper into the Anthropocene the age of humans.Expanding global trade has helped generate enormous wealth,especially for some,and lift millions out of poverty.29 Regrettably,it has also paralleled the dismantling of social,economic and ecological guardrails that
223、would otherwise protect and promote human development.Markets have become more concentrated,encourag-ing rent seeking.Almost 40percent of global trade in goods is concentrated in three or fewer countries even for goods where more suppliers exist.30Antiglobalization sentiment has grown louder in over
224、all partisan discourse.31 Populists anti-elite ire has global dimensions.Fuelling that frustration is a sense that the forces of globalization have bene-fited some at the top and left everyone else behind.Multinational companies may have shifted as much as$1trillion of profits to tax havens in 2022.
225、32 Glob-al losses in corporate tax revenue have skyrocketed since the mid-1990s as a result of profit shifting(fig-ure O.4).Caught up in the antiglobalization mael-strom,international cooperation is being politicized.Advocates for deglobalization or any of its lexiconic kin reshoring,nearshoring and
226、 friendshoring may have their reasons,but those have little to do with practicably addressing new evolving and,in some cases,inescapable forms of global and planetary in-terdependence.Whatever dent might be made in in-ternational trade and capital flows would not come close to offsetting plane ticke
227、ts,smartphones,carbon dioxide and other means of transboundary hyper-connection.For reasons of water and food security,among others,some countries face major constraints on their ability to restrict trade and would suffer if others chose to do so.No country or region is close to self-sufficient,as a
228、ll rely on imports from other re-gions for 25percent or more of essential goods and services.33 The climate remains largely indifferent to national borders,and its worsening impacts will con-tinue to also ignore them.The same applies to cur-rent and future pandemics.In other words if we deglobalize
229、even if partially we cannot deplanetize,not in the Anthropocene.We must view 21st century global public goods,from pandemic preparedness and peace to climate and digital governance,as opportunities to grasp rath-er than challenges to avoid.The answer to misman-aged interdependence is not shying away
230、 from them Figure O.4 Profit shifting to tax havens has skyrocketed50200520025Global corporate tax revenue loss due to profit shifting to tax havens(%of global corporate tax revenue collected)0246810Source:Alstadster and others 2023.OVERVIEW MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCE
231、IN A POLARIZED WORLD17by retreating within porous borders;it is to embrace and manage them better,learning and improving as we go.Rather than be unwound or reversed,glo-balization can and should be done differently,in ways that do not destroy the planet,that do not over-concentrate supply chains and
232、 that do not generate cost-of-living crises that fuel debt crises in low-and middle-income countries.Global interdependence is tenacious,deepening and evolving.A shift in mind-sets,policies and institutions is essential to manage them better and to get unstuck.Providing global public goods will help
233、A global public goods lens can add much.When fully provided,global public goods go a long way to better manage deeply rooted and evolving global interde-pendence,to safeguard and promote human develop-ment and to encourage virtuous cycles of cooperation and trust building.They help us work with comp
234、lex-ity rather than ignore it.They challenge corrosive zero-sum thinking that pits groups against one anoth-er.They spark our imagination to frame and reframe shared problems into win-win opportunities.And they invigorate our sense of duty to one another and to our single,shared planet.All without w
235、ishing away divergent interests or even disagreements.What is a global public good?34 In a nutshell,a global public good is anything an object,an action or inaction,an ideathat,when provided,everyone around the world can enjoy.Climate change miti-gation is a global public good.So is the work of 13th
236、 century poet Rumi.And so is freedom of the seas.A special subcategory of global public goods is plan-etary public goods,which correspond to planetary interdependence and respond to spillover impacts be-tween countries that cannot be managed or mitigated at their borders.Another may be that of digit
237、al public infrastructure and what have been called digital pub-lic goods,associated with the Digital Revolution.While global public goods can serve as a rally-ing cry for redress against injustices or inefficien-cies,they are not merely things that are desirable.In fact,global public goods are less“
238、goods”or con-crete things per se and more a choice about how we humans can enjoy them together.They can be seen also as a mindset an aspiration and can mobilize cooperation in many forms.As such they are limited from the bottom by our imagination and collective will and from the top by the way power
239、 is structured and wielded.They are thus social choices,not just in how we imagine them but whether we decide to im-agine them at all.Understanding that vaccine development and,say,blowing up an asteroid hurtling towards Earth can be framed as global public goods and,what is more,a specific kind of
240、global public good known as best-shot(box O.1)means we do not need to start from scratch when we respond.Time means lives.It means we can think across sectors and silos and get better prepared.It means we can draw from our Covid-19 pandemic experience,for example,when an asteroid or a deadly new pat
241、hogen or a bout of global financial instability does come.They will come.But we do not have to chase yesterdays crisis.“A global public goods lens helps us disentangle complex issues,many of which are complex precisely because their different aspects call for different ways of organizing ourselvesA
242、global public goods lens helps us disentangle complex issues,many of which are complex precisely because their different aspects call for different ways of organizing ourselves.Much of our response,and its shortcomings,to the Covid-19 pandemic can be understood through a global public goods lens,wit
243、h insights on how to structure incentives to foster coop-eration and how to design supportive financing.Recognizing that global public goods can be en-joyed by everyone is one thing;the distribution of their benefits is another.Because countries have dif-ferent interests and resources,the value of e
244、ach glob-al public good to each country will be shaped by those factors.Some of the challenges with providing global public goods are driven by this asymmetry in benefits.A global public goods lens can also offer insights about reframing challenges.For instance,climate change mitigation(a summation
245、global public good)could be advanced by accelerating the technolo-gies and innovations for renewable and clean en-ergy sources(including moonshots such as nuclear fusion)which reframes the challenge as providing best-shot global public goods.Imagine massive car-bon sequestration plants,powered by nu
246、clear fusion,in the Arctic tundra or across the Sahara.Framing 18HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024climate change as a technological opportunity to be solved could have a crowding-in effect,generating its own positive momentum,instead of the foot drag-ging of voluntary carbon emissions reductions.As
247、 important as human choice is for establishing,framing and providing global public goods,it is not the whole story.Technology plays an important role,too.The advent of broadcast radio and television opened access to information carried through the airwaves to anyone with a receiving device.Cable tel
248、evision and later streaming services created opportunities to fence off programming,excluding nonpayers and lead-ing to the proliferation of subscription services,which could be classified economically and epithetically as excludable.The demise of public telephones after mo-bile phones burst onto th
249、e scene offers a similar story:the technology created opportunities for exclusion that policy choices permitted,if not outright encouraged.As with technology itself,global public goods often are not given but created.By us!By our imagination and social choices.Therein lies a good measure of their po
250、wer.They require and therefore activate our imagination for a different world,a different way of doing things,exactly what is needed to navigate in un-certain times.Marrying that creativity with the right incentives and institutional architectures,whose gen-eral features we can already anticipate,wi
251、ll go a long way to get things moving and build out a 21st century global architecture to provide global public goods.Wicked forms of polarization are getting in the wayEasier said than done.What is getting in the way?For starters,us.Group-based polarization is widespread and in-creasing around the
252、world.35 It is affecting national and international politics that will shape how shared global challenges will be addressed in the decades to come.36 Because polarization often translates into intolerance and an aversion to compromise and ne-gotiation,it can lead to political gridlock and dys-functi
253、on.It does so in part by eroding trust across communities,impeding efforts to address major soci-etal issues,such as health crises,violent conflict and climate change.Since many of these issues engender Box O.1 Global public goods 101:What are summation,best-shot and weakest-link global public goods
254、?Three kinds of global public goods stand out:summation,best-shot,and weakest-link.Climate change mitigation is a typical example of a summation global public good,where the overall level of mitigation depends on the sum of contributions from each individual agent,or country.Institutions must aggreg
255、ate contributions big and small,work to resolve free riding and navigate game-theoretic problems,such as those posed in the classic prisoners dilemma(where cooperating producers a better outcome than acting separately in ones self-interest).Now imagine a cataclysmic,but destructible,asteroid hurtlin
256、g towards Earth.What would be the best course of action?The probability of destroying the asteroid depends on whichever country or other agent develops the most accurate asteroid-busting technology in other words,a best-shot global public good.The benefit to everyone on the planet is determined by t
257、he agent(in this example,a country or pool of countries)that invests the most resources effectively.Much technology production,such as the race to sequence the human genome,as well as knowledge in the public domain,can generally be considered best-shot global public goods.Stubborn pockets of endemic
258、 polio illustrate the third kind of global public good:weakest-link.While two of the three wild polio viruses have been eradicated(type 2 in 2015 and type 3 in 2019),1 polio eradication efforts have not succeeded yet and have missed several target dates because the third strain of the virus(wild pol
259、io type 1)persists in only a few small areas in Afghanistan and Pakistan,and vaccine-derived type 2 also continues to circulate.2Disease eradication,as with smallpox,is a global public good.Yet,as with polio,the entire world remains at risk if the pathogen circulates anywhere.The global benefit is t
260、hen tied to the circumstances of the weakest agent.The implications for focusing pooled resources are clear.Disease surveillance is also generally considered a weakest-link global public good.3Notes1.https:/www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradica
261、ted.2.Barrett 2011;Cohen 2023.3.PostCovid-19 pandemic assessments established that countries with more generic public health capacities were better able to control the disease,highlighting the importance of not only an emergency response but also the buildup of capacities for surveillance and public
262、 health where they are lacking(Neill and others 2023).OVERVIEW MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCE IN A POLARIZED WORLD19opposing beliefs and intense political competition,polarization poses a major societal obstacle to ad-dressing shared problems.37Polarization is not the same as difference or dis-agreement,e
263、ven vigorous disagreement.Diversity in preferences and perspectives enriches collective decisionmaking and action.38 Indeed,political institu-tions have been designed to harness rivalry to serve the public interest.For instance,the arguments invoked by James Madison in designing the US Constitution
264、did not assume away competing interests but rather de-signed institutions that leveraged those differences to be both adaptable and to serve the public interest.39But polarization presents new challenges that are fraying those institutions.40 All differences in view are collapsed into questions of a
265、 narrow or single identity.The Brexit referendum gave rise to new so-cial identities Leaver and Remainer which formed the basis of heightened group-based polarization be-tween those two groups.41 In the United States and elsewhere,Covid-19 vaccine status identification be-came a factional marker sep
266、arating one camp from the other.42Polarization at the national level has global con-sequences;it is a drag on international cooperation,including for the provision of global public goods.Between 1970 and 2019 there were 84 referendums concerning international cooperation(such as mem-bership in inter
267、national organizations),with an in-crease in more recent decades.43 There have been campaigns for withdrawing from international insti-tutions.44 The European Union,the World Trade Or-ganization and international justice institutions have been described as facing legitimacy challenges.45For one,high
268、ly polarized societies that seesaw be-tween political extremes make international partners less reliable.There is also a trust problem.Polariza-tion signifies an erosion in trust,and lower trust or confidence,more broadly in national institutions tends to correlate with lower confidence in interna-t
269、ional organizations such as the United Nations(fig-ure O.5).And polarization tends to feed on zero-sum thinking and breed cynicism about compromise and tolerance,all antithetical to global public goods.Providing global public goods does not require a kumbaya moment among nations(divine interven-tion
270、 for harmony).But nor does it live on the other end of the spectrum,where prevailing assumptions about human behaviour(and that of countries)are limited to self-interest and where cooperation is relegated to reciprocity that is,repeat games of the prisoners di-lemma.Providing global public goods wil
271、l languish at either extreme.People and their countries have other,often more dominant motivations that are shaped by social preferences and norms,many of which are cul-turally contingent.For cooperation crowding-in is just as possible as crowding-out if not more so not on everything,but on challeng
272、es that are not zero-sum.Doing so will require additional financing for glob-al public goods as a complement to,rather than a substitute for or competitor to,traditional develop-ment assistance.The costs of inaction in not provid-ing global public goods pale in comparison with the benefits.46 Mindse
273、ts and narratives matter here,too.Many motives for support to global cooperation,in-cluding global redistribution,go beyond self-interest and have to do with peoples views on fairness and equity and whether their sense of duty stops at their countrys border or expands around the world.When Figure O.
274、5 Lower confidence in national government tends to correlate with lower confidence in the United Nations10.80.60.40.20Confidence in the United NationsConfidence in national government00.20.40.60.81Note:Confidence in institutions(the national government and the United Na-tions)implies reporting“a gre
275、at deal”or“quite a lot”of confidence(other op-tions:“not very much”or“none at all”).Source:Human Development Report Office based on data from wave 7(20172022)of the World Values Survey(Inglehart and others 2022).20HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024provided,global public goods are a win-win,the op-po
276、site of zero-sum.If we want to provide them,giv-ing more salience to the nature of these challenges and setting up institutions to facilitate their provision will be crucial.Mismanaged global interdependence,particular-ly when culminating in shocks and crises,stokes po-larization in many ways.One,by
277、 making people feel insecure,and two,when sloganeering transforms insecurity into fear and is exploited for political and personal gain.That is why providing global public goods is so important.By helping us manage global interdependence,they will dampen a major driver of polarization around the wor
278、ld.“By helping us manage global interdependence,global public goods will dampen a major driver of polarization around the worldPolarization can also be eased directly.One way to do this is by correcting misperceptions about oth-ers beliefs,misperceptions that are widespread.For instance,the prevalen
279、ce of pro-climate beliefs in the United States is twice what people think it is.47 The re-sult is a false social reality that hampers collective ac-tion on climate change.Another way to cool things down is by creating spaces of deliberation to bridge divides.Citizen as-semblies are one way to do thi
280、s.Avenues for struc-tured,repeat personal interaction like these matter a lot.It is far easier to objectify,dismiss and malign behind the impersonal safety of a flamethrowing so-cial media post or to hurl vitriol through a television camera than it is when sharing a meal with someone,even with polit
281、ical foes.This may be why storytelling and vignettes have been shown as effective ways to ease polarization.48 They make“othering”harder.We need to narrow gaps in agencyOur institutions are struggling to keep up with evolv-ing,deepening forms of global interdependence and provide global public goods
282、.Polarization is a big part of the problem.So are narrow and self-fulfilling as-sumptions about human behaviour that limit it to self-interest,assumptions that have long held sway over institutions at all levels.Space for social preferences,norms,duties and culture have been squeezed out.Populism ha
283、s become an unhelpful pressure valve.The result is that institutions are failing to deliver.No wonder that while the vast majority of people support democracy as an ideal,more than half now support leaders that may undermine it in practice.Agency is a cornerstone of human development.Albeit difficul
284、t to measure directly,agency in pursuit of collective action49 may be eroding(figure O.6),at least for a sizeable portion of people around the world.50 For many there is a sinking feeling evident in widespread increases in self-reported measures of stress,worry and despair that options for exercisin
285、g choice in their lives,based on what they have reason to value,is shrinking.From among a diminishing set of options,they are less sure more insecure that a choice they want to make can be realized.These are threats to the human psyche to our sense of self and autonomy,to our sense of securely belon
286、ging and commitment to shared intentional-ity,51 to our ability to decide what we value and how we can and do act on those values of no less impor-tance than the threats posed by a super typhoon,a disease outbreak or violence.Conventional metrics such as GDP or even the Human Development Index are m
287、issing something important that is being voiced loudly on the streets,at the ballot box and in the in-crease in support for leaders that may undermine de-mocracy.Agency may be a way of understanding the gaps and,alongside concepts of insecurity,is an area ripe for innovative measurement.Indeed,acros
288、s all regions human security and agency gaps go hand-in-hand(figure O.7).Now add inequality.There is a steep decline in the share of people reporting having very low control over their lives along the income distribution for the bottom 50percent of the income distribution(fig-ure O.8).That is,agency
289、 increases as income grows for the bottom 50percent of the distribution.At the very bottom lack of agency is particularly heightened(agency gaps are three times greater among people in the lowest income decile than in decile 6 and above).Moreover,the share of people reporting having very high contro
290、l over their lives is low and relatively equal for the bottom 50percent of the population but rises with income for deciles 6 and above.Thus,income inequalities,which often intersect and are associated with other inequalities in human development,shape agency.OVERVIEW MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCE IN A P
291、OLARIZED WORLD21Figure O.6 Freedom of expression goes hand-in-hand with agency and has been receding in recent years0.700.600.500.400.300.20Freedom of Expression Index value4062840200220042006200820002
292、2Note:Data are population-weighted global averages.Source:Human Development Report Office calculations based on data from the Varieties of Democracy project and the World Banks World Develop-ment Indicators database.Figure O.7 The higher the perceived human insecurity,the lower the sense of control
293、over ones own lifeArab StatesSub-Saharan AfricaEast Asia and the PacificSouth AsiaLatin America andthe CaribbeanEurope and Central AsiaLowMedium/HighVery highPerceived human insecurityDeveloped countries1412108642Percent of people in each insecurity categoryfacing acute agency gapNote:Perceived huma
294、n insecurity is measured as“low,”“medium and high”and“very high,”using microdata and equal weights across countries,and is based on the index described in annex 1.2 of UNDP(2022d).Acute agency gap measures the share of the population reporting feeling no or very little control over their lives(optio
295、ns 13 on a 110 scale).Source:Human Development Report Office based on the latest available data from wave 6(20102014)and wave 7(20172022)of the World Values Survey(Inglehart and others 2022).22HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024Polarization,insecurity,inequality and reductive narratives all exact hum
296、an tolls that can be under-stood through agency,which threads these strands together as a common denominator and a lodestar for action.Agency gaps are not just about formal institutions.Norms,which interact dynamically with institutions,matter a lot too.At the beginning of the 20th century,women in
297、most countries were officially prohibited from participating in various societal roles,rang-ing from owning property and attending universities to engaging in politics.Womens agency gaps were stark and widespread.Throughout the 20th century extensive reforms worldwide recognized the equal legal,soci
298、al,economic and political rights of women and men.Although women in many countries still face legal restrictions affecting their agency,the pro-gress in institutional reforms has been remarkable.Agency gaps encoded in formal laws have tended to disappear.The legal right to vote in elections a fun-da
299、mental form of political agency serves as a visible example of this evolution.However,the effective agency of women remains restricted in many areas.A notable example is wom-ens access to top political office the pinnacle of political agency.Women serve as heads of state or heads of government in on
300、ly about 10percent of countries,a statistic that has changed little over re-cent decades.52The UNDPs 2023 Gender Social Norms Index,which treats biases as deviations from global shared standards of gender equality,shows that gender equality is being constrained by biased social norms against women(f
301、igure O.9).53 Almost half of people believe that men make better political leaders than women.54 And biased norms might be so entrenched that we judge the women who occupy high political offices more harshly.These biases permeate voting booths,interview panels,board meetings and more all limiting wo
302、mens agency.To help narrow agency gaps,institutions need to be people-centred,co-owned and future-oriented.What do these principles mean for existing multi-lateral institutions?One proxy for people-centred is human develop-ment,which multilateral institutions recognize,at best,in a limited or partia
303、l way.Economic performance still dominates the agenda.Thats why Beyond GDP,em-phasized by UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres,is so important.55 Gaps in co-ownership are manifested Figure O.8 The perception of agency(control over ones own life)is shaped by incomeNo agency gap(in control over own li
304、fe,percent of people in each income decile)Acute agency gapIncome decile(within countries)062345678910Note:Computed using microdata and equal weights across countries.Source:Human Development Report Office based on data from wave 7(20172022)of the World Values Survey(Inglehart and others
305、2022).OVERVIEW MANAGING INTERDEPENDENCE IN A POLARIZED WORLD23in the continuation of governance arrangements through written and unwritten rules that reflect a lega-cy of the distribution of power in the postWorld War II world.This extends from the international financial in-stitutions to the United
306、 Nations,with several proposals tabled over the years to redress the current lack of rep-resentativeness of governance arrangements.56Co-ownership implies a fair distribution of the burden of government action,avoiding inequalities resulting from tax avoidance and evasion.Over the past decade there
307、has been considerable progress in controlling tax evasion,mainly through increased in-formation and transparency around the world.57 The UN General Assembly has started the process for a Framework Convention on International Tax Co-operation,to facilitate policy coordination on these issues.58 Globa
308、l minimum tax rates,such as the min-imum effective corporate income tax,do not have to be very large to raise substantial amounts if they are well enforced.59 Enforcement is largely a policy choice and hinges on international coordination.Future-oriented means accounting for the way in-terdependence
309、 is being reshaped in the Anthropocene and as a result of the Digital Revolution and finding ways to more systematically,efficiently and equitably providing global public goods.Towards an agency-centred vision of developmentWhat is development and how is it best pursued?A central question in the pos
310、twar era whose answer has changed over time in response to emerging realities.Today,the dynamic interactions between the planetary pressures of the Anthropocene on the one hand and growing inequalities and insecurity on the other are to-gether a gauntlet thrown to all development narratives.Even to
311、human development.Figure O.9 Gender equality in politics is being constrained by biased social norms against women6050403020100Share of parliamentary seats occupied by women(%)00708090100Biases in gender social norms(%of population who agree or strongly agreewith the statement“Men make be
312、tter political leaders than women do”)Source:Human Development Report Office based on data from wave 7(20172022)of the World Values Survey(for biases in social norms)and data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union(for the share of parliamentary seats occupied by women in 2021).See also UNDP(2023a).24HUM
313、AN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024The first Human Development Report in 1990 proudly proclaimed that“people are the real wealth of a nation.”People still are;they always will be.What is the point of development if not for people?Yet,how we talk about and measure people has to go beyond wellbeing achiev
314、ements,as measured by the Human Development Index and other conventional indicators,to include agency the unique,limitless capacity for people to form and reform goals,com-mitments and values;to make reasoned choices that may or may not advance their own wellbeing;and,ultimately,to lead lives with p
315、urpose,which may be greater than their individual selves.Agency has largely been left off development agen-das in any explicit sense.And it shows.Agency gaps coincide with worrying trends on democratic norms and practices,polarization and declines in general-ized trust and confidence in governments
316、and inter-national institutions.International cooperation itself is becoming more politicized.Our institutions are struggling with an agency gap.In his landmark Development as Freedom,Amartya Sen recasts development as the pursuit of“great-er freedom that enhances the ability of people to help thems
317、elves and also to influence the world The concern here relates to what we may call the agency aspect.”60The 2023/2024 Human Development Report starts to mould what could be called an emancipatory vision for development that shines Sens notion of de-velopment as freedom on the grand challenge of our
318、time:people and planet in joint crisis.This take on de-velopment centres the expansion of agency at the in-tersection of human development,human rights and sustainability.Its goal is the expansion of freedoms in their many forms,including freedom from the tyran-nies of single exclusive identities,of
319、 zero-sum beliefs and of oversimplified models of behaviour that re-duce people to number-crunching narcissists.Institutions of the 21st century would narrow agen-cy gaps and enlarge,rather than replace,those of the 20th century welfare state.Freedom blossoms into fuller meanings,going beyond the ne
320、cessary and important“froms”freedom from fear,from want,from deprivation to the aspirational and important“ofs”freedom of self,thought and action,including helpful collective action.“States of all political stripes and incomes have the opportunity and obligation to shape agency-centred policies and
321、institutions,anchored in human development and guided by human rightsStates of all political stripes and incomes have the opportunity and obligation to shape agency-centred policies and institutions,anchored in human devel-opment and guided by human rights,the protection of the planet and institutio
322、ns that liberate us from dysfunctional stasis,that better respond to and em-power people and that free us all from rigid and di-visive zero-sum narratives about ourselves and each other.When people feel freer to inhabit multiple,overlapping identities,when reasoned,issue-based dialogue prevails over
323、 emotionally charged rhetoric that exploits group-based grievances,when people meet people instead of tweeting at them,then people are more able and likely to pursue their own goals,as well as compromise and cooperate on shared objec-tives that make their own goals more achievable.This is the virtuo
324、us cycle that an agency-centred vi-sion for development,whose building blocks are out-lined in this Report,aspires to.Global gridlock begins to give way to cooperation,including for global public goods,even when diverse preferences persist and we should expect them to persist.Indeed,differences in w
325、hat people value is a motivating observation be-hind human development and,as argued in previous Human Development Reports,diversity in its many forms is essential to navigating novel and interacting layers of uncertainty.We can do better.We have a lot going for us.Lets get moving.25Advancing human
326、development in an interdependent worldPARTI27PART I ADVANCING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN AN INTERDEPENDENT WORLDHuman development suffers when interdependence is mismanagedCHAPTER128HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023/2024Divergence between the very high and the low human development index groups of countries,a
327、fter decades of convergence,is going up.The path of improvement in the global average human development index has shifted downwards.Why?Largely because of mismanaging interdependenceas reflected in the inadequate response to the Covid-19 pandemic,in the tentative progress on mitigation of climate ch
328、ange and in the conflagration of violent conflicts,with implications that straddle borders.CHAPTER 1Human development suffers when interdependence is mismanagedCHAPTER 1 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT SUFFERS WHEN INTERDEPENDENCE IS MISMANAGED29The decline in the global Human Development Index(HDI)value in 2020
329、and 2021 was unprecedented.It reflects irrecoverable losses,including millions of human lives.Even though the global HDI value in-creased in 2022 and is projected to further increase in 2023,the recovery is projected to be highly unequal:Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Devel-opment(OECD)c
330、ountries are projected to fully re-cover or surpass their 2019 values,but 51percent of the poorest countries with 328million people are not projected to do so.1This chapter considers this unprecedented decline on the HDI and the recovery from the perspective of failures in managing a shared global c
331、hallenge a novel virus spilled over borders and along with it the spread of economic hardship and losses in health and education outcomes.The cross-border spillovers mean that,despite humanitys having the capabilities to deal with them,we failed to manage interdepend-ence across countries.Chapter 3
332、gives an account of how this mismanagement unfolded,where interna-tional cooperation faltered,where it succeeded and the reasons why.2 This chapter shines a spotlight on how mismanaged interdependence harms human development.The interdependence brought into sharp relief dur-ing the Covid-19 pandemic
333、 is sometimes described as a shock,an adverse event to recover and move on from,building forward better.Yet,as we move deep-er into what the 2021/2022 Human Development Report described as a novel uncertainty complex,3 pat-terns of interdependence are being reshaped(chapter 2),and mismanaging them can escalate hypercostly human development crises.The interdependence has several channels.Some relat