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1、 Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司,海通证券印度私人有限公司,海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明,重要披露声明和免责声明,请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究报告 Research Report 1 Aug 2022 中国轻工业中国轻工业
2、 China Light Manufacturing 新国标利好电动二轮车存量替换,下游需求行稳致远 New National Standard Stimulated the Stock Replacement of Electric Two-wheeled Vehicle,Downstream Demand Remain Stable Table_Info 股票名称 评级 股票名称 评级 欧派家居 Outperform 明月镜片 Outperform 晨光文具 Outperform 志邦家居 Outperform 顾家家居 Outperform 江山欧派 Outperform 爱玛科技 Ou
3、tperform 久祺股份 Outperform 九号公司 Outperform 齐心集团 Outperform 太阳纸业 Outperform 昇兴股份 Outperform 居然之家 Outperform 吉宏股份 Outperform 裕同科技 Outperform 尚品宅配 Outperform 红星美凯龙 Outperform 王力安防 Outperform 索菲亚 Outperform 金牌厨柜 Outperform 盈趣科技 Outperform 好莱客 Outperform 中顺洁柔 Outperform 永艺股份 Outperform 劲嘉股份 Outperform 山鹰纸业
4、 Outperform 喜临门 Outperform 集友股份 Outperform 资料来源:Factset,HTI Related Reports 周报:生产许可证陆续颁发,建议关注思摩尔国际(Weekly Report:Production Permission Licenses Gradually Released,Suggest to Follow Smoore International)(26 Jul 2022)周报:复盘依视路崛起之路,看好明月镜片长期成长空间(Weekly Report:Review the Rise of Essilor,Optimistic with Mi
5、ngyue Optical Lenses Long-term Development)(20 Jul 2022)周报:家居板块景气度转好,需求&利润修复可期(Weekly Report:The Prosperity of Furniture Industry Improves,Recovery in Demand and Profitability would be Expected)(11 Jul 2022)(Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)根据新国标技术规范,两轮电动车可划分为三类:电动自根据新国标技术规范,两轮电动车可划分为三类:电动自
6、行车、电动轻便摩托车、电动摩托车。行车、电动轻便摩托车、电动摩托车。其中,电动自行车是指车载蓄电池作为辅助能源,具有脚踏骑行能力,能实现电助动或/和电驱动功能的两轮自行车;电动轻便摩托车是指由电力驱动,其最高设计车速不大于 50km/h,其电机的最大连续额定功率总和不大于 4kW 的摩托车;电动摩托车是指由电力驱动,其最高设计车速大于 50km/h,其电机的最大连续额定功率总和大于 4kW 的摩托车。电动自行车属于非机动车,相较电动摩托车重量更轻、车速更低,且便捷实惠,适合短途出行需求;而摩托车属于机动车,受限于“禁摩令”,在大城市出行较为不便,价格也相对更高,市场消费需求有限。两轮电动车行业
7、已进入成熟阶段,新国标落地带来新一轮换车两轮电动车行业已进入成熟阶段,新国标落地带来新一轮换车高峰。高峰。我国两轮电动车行业从无到有,再到超千亿的市场规模,二十余年间已取得巨大发展,其具体发展历程大致可分为起步阶段、初步规模化、高速发展期、成熟阶段、和新国标阶段。1995 年清华大学研制出第一台柱式无刷直流电机的轻型电动车,标志着我国电动车产业的开端;2003 年非典疫情导致个人非公共出行需求迎来井喷式发展;电动自行车的合法化使行业迎来高速发展期,直至 2013 年产量达到峰值;随着产业规模壮大,行业集中度提升,电动自行车行业进入成熟阶段,产量出现一定下滑趋势,直至新国标实施带来新一轮换车高峰
8、。新国标政策拓展了传统电动车企业的发展空间,影响了行业竞新国标政策拓展了传统电动车企业的发展空间,影响了行业竞争格局。争格局。2019 年 4 月 15 日电动自行车安全技术规范正式实施,进一步规范了两轮电动车的生产、销售和使用管理,电动车市场迎来换购大潮。新国标政策的发布,拓展了传统电动车企业的发展空间,明确了电动自行车与电动摩托车的界限,影响了行业的竞争格局,随着实力较弱的中小企业被迫退出市场,行业内竞争将逐步集中到现有的大型企业之间,带动电动车行业集中度进一步提高。行业竞争加剧,头部企业市占率进一步提升。行业竞争加剧,头部企业市占率进一步提升。目前电动两轮车行业中的主要玩家有雅迪、爱玛、
9、新日、台铃等传统电动两轮车企业,以及小牛、九号等以智能化产品为主的新势力品牌。从市占率和零售收入来看,雅迪、爱玛作为电动两轮车行业的龙头企业,市占率遥遥领先,台铃、新日等传统电动两轮车企业仍然保持较为稳定的市占率。2016-2021 年雅迪的收入年均复合增长率为 32.15%,2021 年达到 270 亿元,远超行业内其他品牌。小牛作为主要研发智能化电动两轮车的新势力品牌,近几年零售收入增速较快,2016-2021 年年均复合增长率达到59.86%。从研发费用来看,近年来各公司纷纷加大研发投入,未来高性能智能化产品有望引领行业趋势。风险提示:风险提示:新国标替换不及预期,电动两轮车行业竞争加剧
10、,原材料价格波动,疫情反复影响生产运输销售。Table_Author 郭庆龙郭庆龙 Qinglong Guo 周梦轩周梦轩 Mengxuan Zhou 557085100115Aug-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22HAI China Light ManufacturingMSCI China 1 Aug 2022 2 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 1.新国标利好电动二轮车存量替换,下游需求行稳致远新国标利好电动二轮车存量替换,下游需求行稳致远 根据新国标技术规范,两轮电动车可划分为三类:电动自行车、电动轻便根据新国标技术规范,两轮电动车可划分为三类:电
11、动自行车、电动轻便摩托车、电动摩托车。摩托车、电动摩托车。其中,电动自行车是指车载蓄电池作为辅助能源,具有脚踏骑行能力,能实现电助动或/和电驱动功能的两轮自行车;电动轻便摩托车是指由电力驱动,其最高设计车速不大于 50km/h,其电机的最大连续额定功率总和不大于 4kW 的摩托车;电动摩托车是指由电力驱动,其最高设计车速大于 50km/h,其电机的最大连续额定功率总和大于 4kW的摩托车。电动自行车属于非机动车,相较电动摩托车重量更轻、车速更低,且便捷实惠,适合短途出行需求;而摩托车属于机动车,受限于“禁摩令”,在大城市出行较为不便,价格也相对更高,市场消费需求有限。图图1 两轮电动车分类两轮
12、电动车分类 资料来源:电动自行车安全技术规范,电动摩托车和电动轻便摩托车通用技术条件,前瞻产业研究院,HTI 两轮电动车行业已进入成熟阶段,新国标落地带来新一轮换车高峰。两轮电动车行业已进入成熟阶段,新国标落地带来新一轮换车高峰。我国两轮电动车行业从无到有,再到超千亿的市场规模,二十余年间已取得巨大发展,其具体发展历程大致可分五个阶段:1.起步阶段(起步阶段(1995-2000 年):年):1995 年清华大学研制出第一台柱式无刷直流电机的轻型电动车,标志着我国电动车产业的开端。这一阶段为早期实验性生产阶段,主要是对电动车的电器四大件(电机、蓄电池、充电器和控制器)关键技术的摸索研究。在技术层
13、面,早期电动车行驶公里数少、电池寿命短、爬坡能力差且容易磨损;在市场方面,行业仍处于培育阶段,进入市场的厂家与商家并不多。2.初步规模化(初步规模化(2000-2004 年):年):2000年起,行业进入初步规模化阶段,随着关键技术的突破和整车性能的提升,电动自行车成为了摩托车的替代产品和自行车的升级换代产品,它的快捷、环保、方便和廉价激发了市场的消费需求。一些新的企业投资加入,行业产能开始扩展。该阶段初步形成了江苏、天津、浙江为代表的三大产业聚集地,“南豪华、北简易”格局形成。1 Aug 2022 3 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 3.高速发展期(高速发展期(2004-2
14、013 年):年):中华人民共和国道路交通安全法于 2004 年将电动自行车确定为非机动车合法车型,电动自行车得以更广泛地应用,自此行业进入高速发展阶段,直至 2013 年电动自行车产量达到峰值 3695 万辆。在技术层面,全行业的技术水平大幅度提高,电机从单一的有刷有齿电机发展到无刷高效电机并逐渐成为主流,蓄电池的寿命和容量显著提高,充电器和控制器不断改进突破,电动车的爬坡、载重、续航能力显著增强;在市场方面,电动车逐渐普及,成为国民短途出行的主要工具之一,行业内出现一批全国性品牌。4.成熟阶段(成熟阶段(2013-2019 年):年):受产业结构调整等因素影响,两轮电动车行业发展速度放缓,
15、步入成熟阶段,产量首次出现下滑。该阶段主要特点是品牌竞争激烈,行业集中度提高,中小品牌和生产厂商逐渐退出市场。另一方面,随着消费升级趋势以及消费者群体关注点的转变,行业内品牌需要创造多元化的产品、完善售后服务体系、树立鲜明的品牌形象才能满足消费者的需求,龙头品牌以其创新能力和规模优势逐步挤占更多市场空间。5.新国标阶段(新国标阶段(2019 年至今):年至今):2018 年 5 月 17 日,电动自行车安全技术规范(GB17761-2018)强制性国家标准由工信部正式发布,2019 年 4 月 15 日正式实施,进一步规范了两轮电动车的生产、销售和使用管理,电动车市场迎来换购大潮。新国标政策的
16、发布,拓展了传统电动车企业的发展空间,明确了电动自行车与电动摩托车的界限,影响了行业的竞争格局,随着实力较弱的中小企业被迫退出市场,行业内竞争将逐步集中到现有的大型企业之间,带动电动车行业集中度进一步提高。Table_PicPe 图图2 两轮电动车行业发展历程两轮电动车行业发展历程 资料来源:爱玛科技招股说明书,HTI 1 Aug 2022 4 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图3 2012-2020 年中国两轮电动车产量年中国两轮电动车产量 资料来源:华经产业研究院援引中国自行车协会与艾瑞咨询数据,HTI 行业竞争加剧,头部企业市占率进一步提升。行业竞争加剧,头部企业市占
17、率进一步提升。目前电动两轮车行业中的主要玩家有雅迪、爱玛、新日、台铃等传统电动两轮车企业,以及小牛、九号等以智能化产品为主的新势力品牌。从市占率和零售收入来看,雅迪、爱玛作为电动两轮车行业的龙头企业,市占率遥遥领先,台铃、新日等传统电动两轮车企业仍然保持较为稳定的市占率。2016-2021 年雅迪的收入年均复合增长率为 32.15%,2021 年达到270 亿元,远超行业内其他品牌。小牛作为主要研发智能化电动两轮车的新势力品牌,近几年零售收入增速较快,2016-2021 年年均复合增长率达到 59.86%。从研发费用来看,近年来各公司纷纷加大研发投入,未来高性能智能化产品有望引领行业趋势。图图
18、4 2016 年头部公司市占率情况年头部公司市占率情况 资料来源:前瞻产业研究院,HTI 图图5 2019 年头部公司市占率情况年头部公司市占率情况 资料来源:前瞻产业研究院,HTI 11.0%12.0%4.0%4.0%5.0%3.0%3.0%58.0%雅迪爱玛台铃新日绿源绿佳立马其他17.0%14.0%9.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%1.0%47.0%雅迪爱玛台铃新日绿源绿佳小牛其他 1 Aug 2022 5 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图6 2016-2021 年电动两轮车零售收入(单位:亿元)年电动两轮车零售收入(单位:亿元)资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图7 2
19、017-2021 年头部公司研发费用(单位:亿元)年头部公司研发费用(单位:亿元)资料来源:各公司年报,HTI 图图8 2017-2021 年头部公司研发费用率年头部公司研发费用率 资料来源:Wind,各公司年报,HTI 2、本周(、本周()板块跑赢大盘,造纸板块表现较弱)板块跑赢大盘,造纸板块表现较弱 本周()轻工制造行业指数上涨 1.13%,上证综指下跌 0.51%。在各子板块中,包装印刷板块表现最好,上涨 3.76%,造纸板块表现较弱,下跌 0.20%。年初至今(),轻工制造行业下跌 14.10%,上证综指下跌
20、10.62%。在各子板块中,包装印刷板块表现最好,下跌 12.52%,其他轻工制造板块表现较弱,下跌 21.43%。67799989602001920202021雅迪小牛爱玛新日 1.833.053.866.058.441.161.51.972.394.040.330.540.650.640.920.390.920.671.051.350.911.233.174.625.0400202021雅迪爱玛新日小牛九号2.74%
21、3.68%3.90%3.71%3.69%1.71%1.92%2.19%2.09%2.97%1.44%2.09%2.49%1.41%2.46%5.45%7.19%4.21%5.57%8.64%4.07%9.52%10.45%7.18%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%200202021雅迪爱玛新日小牛九号 1 Aug 2022 6 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图9 轻工行业本周(轻工行业本周()涨跌幅)涨跌幅 资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图10 轻工行业轻工行业 22 年至今(年至今
22、()涨跌幅)涨跌幅 资料来源:Wind,HTI 本周()轻工制造行业涨幅前五为群兴玩具(20.87%)、环球印务(17.35%)、万顺新材(16.94%)、*ST 金洲(15.83%)、双星新材(14.99%);跌幅前五为 ST 爱迪尔(-8.52%)、滨海能源(-7.75%)、实丰文化(-5.59%)、五洲特纸(-5.17%)、迪阿股份(-4.61%)。图图11 行业本周(行业本周()涨幅前)涨幅前 5(%)资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图12 行业本周(行业本周()跌幅前)跌幅前 5(%
23、)资料来源:Wind,HTI 3、行业基本数据、行业基本数据(一)造纸行业数据(一)造纸行业数据 木浆:木浆:本周针叶浆内盘7280元/吨,较上周上涨104元/吨;外盘999美元/吨,较上周下跌 3 美元/吨;阔叶浆内盘 6713 元/吨,较上周上涨 68 元/吨;外盘799 美元/吨,较上周持平;化机浆 5433 元/吨,较上周持平。国内外价差(国内-国外)针叶浆为 544 元/吨,阔叶浆为 1328 元/吨。废纸:废纸:本周国废黄板纸2043 元/吨,较上周下跌 143 元/吨。机制纸:机制纸:双铜纸标杆价格 5420 元/吨,较上周下跌 110 元/吨;毛利空间-1134 元/吨,较上周
24、下跌 129 元/吨。双胶纸标杆价格 6288 元/吨,较上周上涨 13 元/吨;毛利空间-751 元/吨,较上周下跌 22元/吨。白卡纸标杆价格 5960 元/吨,较上周下跌 80 元/吨;毛利空间-343 元/吨,较上周下跌 94元/吨。箱板纸标杆价格 4722元/吨,较上周下跌 27元/吨;毛利空间 556 元/吨,较上周上涨 127 元/吨。瓦楞纸标杆价格 3444 元/吨,较上周下跌 44 元/吨;白板纸标杆价格 4468 元/吨,较上周持平;生活用纸标杆价格 7667 元/吨,较上周持平;新闻纸标杆价格 5960 元/吨,较上周持平。1.1%-0.2%3.8%0.5%0.4%-1%
25、0%1%2%3%4%轻工板块造纸包装印刷家用轻工其他轻工制造-14.1%-13.7%-12.5%-14.7%-21.4%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%轻工板块造纸包装印刷家用轻工其他轻工制造20.869617.351616.942115.833314.99170102030群兴玩具环球印务万顺新材*ST金洲双星新材-8.5227-7.7535-5.5866-5.1653-4.6141-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10ST爱迪尔滨海能源实丰文化五洲特纸迪阿股份 1 Aug 2022 7 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图13 双铜纸价格及毛利空间测算双铜纸价格
26、及毛利空间测算 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI 测算 图图14 双胶纸价格及毛利空间测算双胶纸价格及毛利空间测算 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI 测算 图图15 白卡纸价格及毛利空间测算白卡纸价格及毛利空间测算 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI 测算 图图16 箱板纸价格及毛利空间测算箱板纸价格及毛利空间测算 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI 测算 图图17 瓦楞纸标杆价格瓦楞纸标杆价格 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI 图图18 白板纸标杆价格白板纸标杆价格 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI (1500)(1000)(500)050000040005000600070008000
27、双铜纸价格(元/吨,左轴)毛利空间测算(元/吨,右轴)(1500)(1000)(500)05000250000400050006000700080009000双胶纸价格(元/吨,左轴)毛利空间测算(元/吨,右轴)(1000)(500)0500025003000350040004500020004000600080001000012000白卡纸价格(元/吨,左轴)毛利空间测算(元/吨,右轴)(500)05000004000500060007000箱板纸价格(元/吨,左轴)毛利空间测算(元
28、/吨,右轴)00400050006000瓦楞纸价格(元/吨)004000500060007000白板纸价格(元/吨)1 Aug 2022 8 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图19 生活用纸标杆价格生活用纸标杆价格 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI 图图20 新闻纸标杆价格新闻纸标杆价格 资料来源:卓创资讯,HTI 图图21 针叶浆市场价、国际价针叶浆市场价、国际价 资料来源:Wind,卓创资讯,HTI 图图22 阔叶浆市场价、国际价阔叶浆市场价、国际价 资料来源:Wind,卓创资讯,HTI 图图23 本色浆市场价、国际价本色浆市场价、
29、国际价 资料来源:Wind,卓创资讯,HTI 测算 图图24 化机浆市场价、国际价化机浆市场价、国际价 资料来源:Wind,卓创资讯,HTI 测算 00400050006000700080009000生活用纸价格(元/吨)0040005000600070002017-3-282018-3-282019-3-282020-3-282021-3-282022-3-28新闻纸价格(元/吨)(1000)0040005000600070008000国内外价差(元/吨)针叶浆国内价格(元/吨)针叶浆国际价格(元/吨)(1000)010002
30、000300040005000600070008000国内外价差(元/吨)阔叶浆国内价格(元/吨)阔叶浆国际价格(元/吨)0040005000600070008000国内外价差(元/吨)本色浆国内价格(元/吨)本色浆国际价格(元/吨)(1000)004000500060007000国内外价差(元/吨)化机浆国内价格(元/吨)化机浆国际价格(元/吨)1 Aug 2022 9 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图25 废纸价格废纸价格 资料来源:Wind,卓创资讯,HTI 测算 图图26 动力煤价格动力煤价格 资料来源:Wind,HTI
31、 图图27 粘胶短纤和溶解浆价格粘胶短纤和溶解浆价格 资料来源:Wind,HTI(二)家具行业数据(二)家具行业数据 2022 年 6 月,商品房销售面积 1.82 亿平方米,同比下跌 18.3%,环比上涨65.76%。05000250030003500废黄板纸国内价(元/吨)0500025002015-1-42017-1-42019-1-42021-1-4(元/吨)期货结算价(连续):动力煤50005500600065007000750080008500900095000020005
32、000021-1-72021-4-72021-7-72021-10-72022-1-72022-4-72022-7-7(元/吨)CCFEI价格指数:粘胶短纤1.5DCCFEI价格指数:溶解浆内盘 1 Aug 2022 10 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图28 商品房销售面积商品房销售面积 资料来源:Wind,HTI(三)印刷包装行业数据(三)印刷包装行业数据 截至 7 月 29 日,聚乙烯期货结算价 8083 元/吨,较前一周价格上涨 5.69%,聚丙烯期货结算价 8115 元/吨,较前一周上涨 5.80%。截至 7 月 29 日,WTI 原油期货
33、结算价 98.62 美元/桶,较前一周上涨 4.14%,Brent 原油期货结算价 110.01美元/桶,较前一周上涨 6.60%。金属包装原材料方面,截至 7 月 29 日数据,LME 铝现货结算价 2452.00 美元/吨,较前一周价格下跌 0.3%。图图29 化工产品价格(元化工产品价格(元/吨)吨)资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图30 原油价格(美元原油价格(美元/桶)桶)资料来源:Wind,HTI -60-40-200204060800400006000080000000Nov-15Jul-16M
34、ar-17Nov-17Jul-18Mar-19Nov-19Jul-20Mar-21Nov-21商品房销售面积(万平方米,左轴)累计同比增速(%,右轴)020004000600080001000012000Aug-18Feb-19Aug-19Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Feb-22期货结算价(活跃合约):线型低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)期货结算价(活跃合约):聚丙烯(50)(30)(10)10130150Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22期货结算价(连续):WTI原油期货结算价(连续
35、):布伦特原油 1 Aug 2022 11 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 图图31 现货结算价现货结算价:LME 铝(美元铝(美元/吨)吨)资料来源:Wind,HTI 4、公司重要公告及行业新闻、公司重要公告及行业新闻(一一)公司公告公司公告 (1)晨鸣纸业:)晨鸣纸业:2022 年 7 月 25 日,公司发布关于 2020 年 A 股限制性股票激励计划第一个解除限售期解除限售股份上市流通的提示性公告,公司于2022 年 7 月 18 日召开第十届董事会第二次临时会议和第十届监事会第一次临时会议,审议通过了关于 2020年 A股限制性股票激励计划授予的限制性股票第一个解除限
36、售期解除限售条件成就的议案,96名激励对象共计2994.8万股限制性股票可办理解除限售事宜,占公司当前股本总额的 1%。(2)理文造纸:)理文造纸:2022 年 7 月 25 日,公司发布理文造纸有限公司盈利预警,知会股东及有意投资者,根据对集团管理账目的初步翻阅,本期间公司的普通股股东应占盈利预期较去年同期下跌大约 59%,主要由于集团边际利润下跌导致。(3)敏华控股:)敏华控股:2022 年 7 月 25 日,公司发布自愿性公布控股股东持股量增加公告,公司获黄主席告知,其于 2022 年 7 月 25 日通过 Man Wah Investments Limited自公开市场购入公司200万
37、股普通股。Man Wah Investments Limited 于 2022 年 7 月 18 日至 2022 年 7 月 25 日在公开市场上已经购入合计共1500 万股公司普通股份。(4)公牛集团:)公牛集团:2022 年 7 月 27 日,公司发布公牛集团股份有限公司部分股权激励限制性股票回购注销实施公告,本次回购注销限制性股票涉及朱江林、龙正池等 22 人,回购注销的尚未解除限售的限制性股票合计 2.81 万股,公司将于本次回购完成后依法履行相应的减资程序。本次回购注销完成后,2020 年激励计划、2021 年激励计划剩余股权激励限制性股票 533030 股。(5)新通联:)新通联:
38、2022 年 7 月 27 日,公司发布新通联股东集中竞价减持股份计划公告,截至本公告日止,公司股东毕方投资持有公司股份 3689.62 万股,占公司总股本的 18.45%,该股份来源为毕方投资于 2021 年 9 月 23 日通过协议转让获得的股份。毕方投资因经营需要,计划于本公告披露之日起15个交易日后的 6 个月内,即 2022 年 8 月 18 日至 2023 年 2 月 17 日期间,通过集中竞价交易的方式减持公司股份不超过 400 万股,占公司总股本的 2%,且任意连续90 日内集中竞价减持公司股份的总数,不超过公司总股本的 1%。02500300035004
39、0004500Oct-17Oct-18Oct-19Oct-20Oct-21现货结算价:LME铝 1 Aug 2022 12 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 (6)东风股份:)东风股份:2022 年 7 月 28 日,公司发布股东集中竞价减持股份进展公告,公司实际控制人之一黄晓鹏先生拟自东风股份股东减持股份计划公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内,通过上海证券交易所集中竞价方式减持公司股份不超过 1842.90 万股(约占公司总股本的 1%),以满足个人资产管理及投资需求。(7)玉马遮阳:)玉马遮阳:2022 年 7 月 28 日,公司发布关于与专业投资机构合作投资设
40、立基金暨关联交易的公告,公司拟与嘉兴蕴峰股权投资合伙企业(有限合伙)等共同投资嘉兴行律道也股权投资合伙企业(有限合伙)。基金设立初始规模拟为不超过人民币 1.5 亿元,主要用于投资智能制造、消费、医疗健康等潜力行业领域的成长型企业。其中公司为有限合伙人,认缴出资人民币2000万元。(8)百亚股份:)百亚股份:2022 年 7 月 28 日,公司发布关于股东权益变动的提示性公告,公司于近日收到公司股东广东温氏投资有限公司及其一致行动人横琴齐创共享股权投资基金合伙企业(有限合伙)共同出具的简式权益变动报告书,截止本公告披露日,温氏投资和齐创共享合计持有公司股份 2151.65 万股,占公司总股本的
41、 4.9999%,不再是公司持股 5%以上股东。(二二)行业新闻行业新闻 2022 年 1-6 月,国内机制纸及纸板累计产量 6772.39 万吨,同比增长 0.4%,6月产量 1185.50 万吨,同比下滑 1.50%,1-6 月累计出口量同比增长 64.1%。从数据上看,预计上半年国内造纸企业整体开工率并不高,但在RCEP推动之下,国内造纸企业对东南亚等地区出口量增加,整体出口订单保持相对较好的趋势。上周国内纸价相对平稳,但有一定分化,箱板纸、白卡纸、双胶纸和铜版纸价格周环比保持稳定,而瓦楞纸、白板纸价格环比下跌 25 元/吨和 100 元/吨。(中纸网)受木浆、能源、运输成本上涨的影响,
42、上半年国内造纸企业盈利普遍大幅下滑,若在往年,文化纸、白卡纸早就进入了涨价通道,但是今年,下游需求萎缩让企业也不敢贸然提价。目前唯一还保持涨价势头并能实现落地的就是特种纸,本月中,热转印原纸企业已宣布 8 月 1 日起,吨纸涨价 1000 元。(中纸网)1 Aug 2022 13 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 (三三)解禁限售股份情况解禁限售股份情况 表表 1 解禁限售情况解禁限售情况 资料来源:Wind,HTI 5、风险提示、风险提示 新国标替换不及预期,电动两轮车行业竞争加剧,原材料价格波动,疫情反复影响生产运输销售。证券代码证券简称限售解禁日期本期解禁数量(百万股)总
43、股本(百万股)流通A股(百万股)解禁后流通股占比解禁股份性质301101.SZ明月镜片2022-12-260.8134.349.037%首发原股东限售股份002243.SZ力合科创2022-12-19474.01210.6602.589%定向增发机构配售股份301101.SZ明月镜片2022-12-1617.7134.331.336%首发原股东限售股份,首发战略配售股份301177.SZ迪阿股份2022-12-153.5400.036.510%首发战略配售股份301193.SZ家联科技2022-12-0931.8120.028.450%首发原股东限售股份,首发战略配售股份301108.SZ洁雅
44、股份2022-12-0515.281.220.344%首发原股东限售股份002969.SZ嘉美包装2022-12-02508.5962.3444.299%首发原股东限售股份301198.SZ喜悦智行2022-12-0221.1100.025.046%首发原股东限售股份301188.SZ力诺特玻2022-11-11103.6232.448.365%首发原股东限售股份,首发战略配售股份600135.SH乐凯胶片2022-10-17125.5553.3427.8100%定向增发机构配售股份300640.SZ德艺文创2022-09-309.7286.9187.869%定向增发机构配售股份301062.
45、SZ上海艾录2022-09-14191.4400.443.759%首发原股东限售股份,首发战略配售股份605599.SH菜百股份2022-09-09508.9777.877.875%首发原股东限售股份301055.SZ张小泉2022-09-0623.4156.035.137%首发原股东限售股份,首发战略配售股份603992.SH松霖科技2022-08-25356.2401.044.8100%首发原股东限售股份001211.SZ双枪科技2022-08-0521.472.018.055%首发原股东限售股份603687.SH大胜达2022-07-25269.0410.9141.8100%首发原股东限
46、售股份603863.SHST松炀2022-06-2197.3205.9108.6100%首发原股东限售股份605500.SH森林包装2022-06-211.5200.050.026%首发原股东限售股份301009.SZ可靠股份2022-06-1738.4271.961.237%首发原股东限售股份,首发战略配售股份301101.SZ明月镜片2022-06-161.7134.329.623%首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份301177.SZ迪阿股份2022-06-152.3400.034.29%首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份301193.SZ家联科技2022-06-091.5120.026.924%
47、首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份301108.SZ洁雅股份2022-06-061.081.219.325%首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份301198.SZ喜悦智行2022-06-021.3100.023.725%首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份300993.SZ玉马遮阳2022-05-2411.2131.732.933%首发原股东限售股份001206.SZ依依股份2022-05-1835.894.323.663%首发原股东限售股份301188.SZ力诺特玻2022-05-112.5232.445.821%首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份002721.SZ金一文化2022-05-06125.2959.
48、9731.289%定向增发机构配售股份300729.SZ乐歌股份2022-05-0532.1220.3173.993%定向增发机构配售股份601515.SH东风股份2022-05-05201.31535.71334.4100%定向增发机构配售股份300501.SZ海顺新材2022-04-2637.2193.7156.0100%定向增发机构配售股份002740.SZ爱迪尔2022-04-11113.7454.1245.079%定向增发机构配售股份300955.SZ嘉亨家化2022-03-2419.7100.825.245%首发原股东限售股份002951.SZ金时科技2022-03-15333.3
49、405.071.7100%首发原股东限售股份301062.SZ上海艾录2022-03-142.7400.441.011%首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份301055.SZ张小泉2022-03-071.8156.033.323%首发一般股份,首发机构配售股份601968.SH宝钢包装2022-03-02108.81132.8837.584%定向增发机构配售股份 1 Aug 2022 14 Table_header2 中国轻工业中国轻工业 APPENDIX 1 Summary With the expansion of industry size and the improvement of ind
50、ustry concentration,the electric bicycle industry has entered a mature stage,and the output has a little downward trend until the implementation of the new national standard,which brings a new round of vehicle replacement need.The new national standard expanded the development space of traditional e
51、lectric vehicle companies.As the weak small and medium-sized companies are forced to withdraw from the market,the competition in the industry would gradually concentrate among the existing large companies,which drives the industry concentration of the electric vehicle industry to further improve.In
52、terms of market share and retail revenue,Yadea and Aima,as leading enterprises in the electric two-wheeled vehicle industry,are far ahead in market share.In terms of R&D costs,companies have increased R&D investment in recent years,and high-performance smart products would lead the industry trend in
53、 the future.Risks:the effect of new national standard regulation below expectation,the intensification of industry competition,the fluctuation of raw material and the impact of pandemic on production and logistics.15 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究
54、有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL),Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research
55、teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG
56、”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我,郭庆龙,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Qinglong Guo,certify that(i)the vie
57、ws expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this re
58、search report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我,周梦轩,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Mengxu
59、an Zhou,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
60、 or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言,以下是有关该等关系的披露事项(以
61、下披露不能保证及时无遗漏,如需了解及时全面信息,请发邮件至ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure
62、matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司(统称“海通”)在过去12个月内参与了603899.CH and 601828.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括:1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目;2、
63、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目;3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 603899.CH and 601828.CH within the past 12 months.The investment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong
64、acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects of 603899.CH and 601828.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in the new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as le
65、ad-brokerage firm.作为回报,海通拥有603816.CH一类普通股证券的1%或以上。The Haitong beneficially owns 1%or more of a class of common equity securities of 603816.CH.603899.CH 及 601828.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。603899.CH and 601828.CH are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.成都川渝
66、太阳纸业销售有限公司,红星美凯龙控股集团有限公司 及 600135.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。成都川渝太阳纸业销售有限公司,红星美凯龙控股集团有限公司 and 600135.CH are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.安徽华骐环保科技股份有限公司目前或过去12个月内是海通的
67、客户。海通向客户提供非证券业务服务。安徽华骐环保科技股份有限公司 is/was a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-securities services.海通预计将(或者有意向)在未来三个月内从601828.CH获得投资银行服务报酬。Haitong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in the next t
68、hree months from 601828.CH.海通在过去的12个月中从红星美凯龙控股集团有限公司 及 安徽华骐环保科技股份有限公司获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 红星美凯龙控股集团有限公司 and 安徽华骐环保科技股份有限公司.16 评级定义评级定义(从(从2020年年7月月1日开始执行)日开始执行):海通国际(以下简称“HTI”)采用相对评级系统
69、来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司:优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息,投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下,分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况(比如投资者的现有持仓)以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级 优于大市优于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数
70、跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully
71、 read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from
72、 the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks
73、 total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purpo
74、ses only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region
75、 are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年6月月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市优于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.5%9.2%1.3%投资银行客户*5.9%5.6%5.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入,中性和卖出
76、分别对应我们当前优于大市,中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义(直至此前的评级系统定义(直至2020年年6月月30日):日):买入,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 17 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAI
77、EX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Jun 30,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.5%9.2%1.3%IB clients*5.9%5.6%5.0%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SE
78、LL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Pre
79、vious rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of
80、 its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as
81、 indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通国际非评级研究:海通国际非评级研究:海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告,并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值,而仅供参考使用。Haitong I
82、nternational Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or t
83、arget prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖:海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券(600837.CH),海通国际于上海的母公司,也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是,海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统,所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that ar
84、e subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs
85、from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股(Q100)指数指数:海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程,并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HT
86、Is Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies
87、are reviewed quarterly.MSCI ESG评级免责声明条款:评级免责声明条款:尽管海通国际的信息供货商(包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其联属公司(ESG方)从其认为可靠的来源获取信息(信息),ESG方均不担保或保证此处任何数据的原创性,准确性和/或完整性,并明确表示不作出任何明示或默示的担保,包括可商售性和针对特定目的的适用性。该信息只能供阁下内部使用,不得以任何形式复制或重新传播,并不得用作任何金融工具、产品或指数的基础或组成部分。此外,信息本质上不能用于判断购买或出售何种证券,或何时购买或出售该证券。即使已被告知可能造成的损害,ESG方均不承担
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145、于因本研究报告而产生的或与之相关的任何问题,本研究报告的收件人应通过以下信息与HTISSPL联系:Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd 50 Raffles Place,#33-03 Singapore Land Tower,Singapore 048623 电话:(65)6536 1920 日本投资者的通知事项:日本投资者的通知事项:本研究报告由海通国际证券有限公司所发布,旨在分发给从事投资管理的金融服务提供商或注册金融机构(根据日本金融机构和交易法(“FIEL”)第61(1)条,第17-11(1)条的执行及相关条款)。英国及欧
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