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1、Energy Policy ReviewUganda 2023The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that w
2、ill enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers a
3、nd boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNo
4、rwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONA
5、L ENERGYAGENCY 3 FOREWORD Foreword As the International Energy Agency(IEA)has opened its doors to emerging and developing economies,in-depth reviews have come to play an increasingly prominent role in our bilateral partnerships.We are very pleased this work now extends to Uganda,the first country in
6、 sub-Saharan Africa to participate in a comprehensive assessment of its energy system and policies.The IEA has been actively involved in addressing African energy issues for more than two decades.We began with pioneering work on energy access data in 1999 in our flagship World Energy Outlook,but our
7、 efforts have expanded significantly since then,with a focus on the key tools needed to enhance energy access,economic development,affordability,sustainability and energy security.We hope this review provides a strong example for further collaboration in the region.I congratulate Uganda for the prog
8、ress it has made over the past two decades in providing access to electricity and expanding generation capacity.It is also impressive that the countrys electricity sector is now almost fully based on renewable sources.The IEA looks forward to continuing to partner with Uganda as it builds on progres
9、s in reforming its electricity sector and works towards achieving universal energy access.Much of this work will be facilitated by the newly launched Energy Policy for Uganda,a major contribution to the countrys ambitious energy agenda.Notably,Uganda already has in place much of the technical expert
10、ise,government institutions and policy frameworks to reach its energy goals.It is also a leader in the region on high-quality energy statistics,which are crucial for evidence-based policy making.We commend Uganda for its efforts that have led to improved coverage,quality and timeliness of energy bal
11、ances and data,and encourage further ambition.For years,the IEA and the government of Uganda have collaborated closely,sharing energy data and knowledge.Ugandan leaders have participated in many important IEA events.This year,as part of its efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement,Ugandas Mi
12、nistry of Energy and Mineral Development also decided to draw on the IEAs expertise to support the development of the countrys Energy Transition Plan.So far,the focus has been on further strengthening Ugandas modelling,energy data and statistics capacities.This in-depth review which takes stock of t
13、he latest energy trends,assesses Ugandas energy policies and provides policy recommendations will help inform the next steps.The aim of this report is to support Uganda as it works to chart its path forward,achieve its goals to eradicate energy poverty,develop its energy resources,promote sustainabl
14、e,clean energy,and bring prosperity to all Ugandans as set out by national targets and international agreements.My hope is this in-depth review will guide Uganda in its energy development and serve as a tool to deepen international partnerships at a moment when more are needed.Dr.Fatih Birol Executi
15、ve Director International Energy Agency IEA.CC BY 4.0.4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary.9 Electricity.9 Renewable energy.10 Energy efficiency.13 Climate change and the environment.13 Investment.14 1.General energy policy.17 Country overview.17 Energy supply and demand.19 Key institutions in the
16、energy sector.21 Key policy documents.23 Assessment.27 Recommendations.29 2.Electricity.31 Overview.31 Governance.32 Major policy documents and legislation.32 Market structure and reforms.35 Generating capacity.37 Generation.41 Transmission.41 Distribution.42 Cross-border interconnections and trade.
17、46 Consumption.47 Tariffs.48 Cost reduction.48 Nuclear power.50 Assessment.52 Recommendations.54 3.Renewable energy.57 Overview.57 Governance.58 Policy framework.59 Feed-in tariffs.61 Renewable energy capacity and supply.63 Assessment.67 Recommendations.69 IEA.CC BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 5 4.Access
18、to electricity.71 Overview.71 Governance.73 Policy framework.73 Electrification efforts.74 Demand for electricity and affordability.78 Assessment.79 Recommendations.80 5.Access to clean cooking.83 Overview.83 Current policies and projects.83 The cooking sector.85 A predominance of biomass.86 Clean c
19、ooking solutions.89 Managing affordability.93 Assessment.94 Recommendations.95 6.Oil and gas.99 Overview.99 Governance.100 Policies and legislation.100 Oil reserves.102 Exploration.103 Investment conditions.105 Oil pipeline.107 Refinery.109 Consumption and oil product market.110 Liquefied petroleum
20、gas.112 Oil storage.112 Gas.112 Revenue management.113 Assessment.114 Recommendations.115 7.Critical minerals.117 Overview.117 Institutional governance for critical minerals.118 Production and prospects.118 Policies.122 Assessment.125 IEA.CC BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Recommendatio
21、ns.126 8.Energy efficiency.129 Overview.129 Energy consumption.130 Policies and measures.131 Sector trends.138 Financing.142 Assessment.143 Recommendations.145 9.Energy,climate change and the environment.147 Overview.147 Institutional framework.148 Strategic framework.148 Climate change mitigation.1
22、50 Energy-related CO2 emissions.151 Climate change adaptation.152 Air quality.154 Deforestation and biodiversity loss.154 Waste management and the circular economy.155 Assessment.155 Recommendations.156 10.Investment.159 Overview.159 Investment environment.160 Key public financing bodies in the ener
23、gy sector.162 Current energy investment trends.163 Assessment.165 Recommendations.170 ANNEX A:Organisations visited.171 ANNEX B:Energy balances and key statistical data.174 ANNEX C:International Energy Agency“Shared Goals”.178 ANNEX D:Glossary and list of abbreviations.180 Acronyms and abbreviations
24、.180 Units of measure.182 IEA.CC BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 7 LIST OF FIGURES,TABLES AND BOXES Figures Figure 1.1 Energy demand and drivers,2000-2021.18 Figure 1.2 Overview of Ugandas energy system by fuel and sector,2021.19 Figure 1.3 Total energy supply by fuel in Uganda,2000-2021.20 Figure 1.4 Tota
25、l final consumption by sector and per capita in Uganda,2000-2021.20 Figure 2.1 Installed generating capacity by source in Uganda,2000-2021.38 Figure 2.2 Electricity generation in Uganda,2000-2021.41 Figure 2.3 Selected distribution share of total customers,network and purchase by the transmission ut
26、ility(left)and level of network losses in Uganda,2021.44 Figure 2.4 Umeme customers by tariff category,2021.44 Figure 2.5 Operational distribution lines in Uganda,2017.46 Figure 2.6 Categories of customers as a share of total clients and sales,and electricity tariffs,Q2 2021.47 Figure 2.7 Potential
27、sites reviewed for a nuclear power plant in Uganda.52 Figure 3.1 Share of modern renewables in total final energy consumption in selected African countries,2000-2021.57 Figure 3.2 Renewables capacity additions by source in Uganda,2000-2021.63 Figure 4.1 Access to electricity rate and connections pro
28、vided in Uganda(grid connections and off-grid products).72 Figure 4.2 Distribution of households by main source of energy for lighting in Uganda,2021.73 Figure 5.1 Access to clean cooking in Uganda,2000-2022.86 Figure 5.2 Distribution of households by primary cooking fuel in Uganda,2021.86 Figure 5.
29、3 LPG final consumption by sector in Uganda,2000-2021.90 Figure 6.1 East African Crude Oil Pipeline.108 Figure 6.2 Ugandas oil product imports,2000-2021.110 Figure 6.3 Oil products consumption in Uganda,2000-2021.111 Figure 6.4 Oil products consumption by sector and product in Uganda,2021.111 Figure
30、 7.1 Selected mineral production in Uganda,2017-2021.119 Figure 7.2 Map of minerals and related infrastructures in Uganda.120 Figure 7.3 Number of registered mineral licences in Uganda,2017-2021.121 Figure 7.4 Revenue collected from mining tax and non-tax mining in Uganda,2019-2021.122 Figure 8.1 Fi
31、nal energy consumption in Uganda,2000-2021.130 Figure 8.2 Energy intensity in Uganda and selected countries,2000-2021.131 Figure 8.3 Sector contribution to Ugandas gross domestic product,2016/17-2020/21.138 Figure 8.4 Final energy consumption in buildings in Uganda,2000-2021.139 Figure 9.1 Emissions
32、 from fuel combustion by sector in Uganda,2000-2021.147 Figure 9.2 Emissions from fuel combustion by fuel in Uganda,2000-2021.151 Figure 10.1 Foreign direct investment in Uganda compared to regional averages,2012-2021.159 Figure 10.2 Breakdown of finance for solar PV and hydro projects with private
33、involvement.164 Figure 10.3 Illustrative breakdown of risks that explain country-by-country variations in the levelised cost of electricity for a given clean energy project.168 IEA.CC BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS Tables Table 1.1 Selected targets from Ugandas National Energy Policy 2
34、023.25 Table 3.1 REFiT Phase 4 tariffs,O&M%,capacity limits and payment period.62 Table 3.2 Tariff ceiling and return on equity in Uganda.62 Table 4.1 Energy-related targets by strategy and plan in Uganda.74 Table 7.1 Critical mineral areas prioritised for exploration and development in Uganda.123 T
35、able 8.1 Overview of select targets,regulations,information measures and incentives in Ugandas emerging energy efficiency framework.134 Table 8.2 Vehicle average fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions Uganda and global.141 Table 9.1 Priority adaptation actions for the energy sector in Uganda.153 Table 10
36、.1 Key investment legislation relevant to the energy sector in Uganda.160 Boxes Box 1.1 Proposed project for an Integrated Energy Resource Master Plan.22 Box 2.1 Development assistance in the power sector in Uganda.37 Box 2.2 Umeme.43 Box 2.3 IAEA Milestone Approach.50 Box 4.1 The Parish Development
37、 Model.74 Box 4.2 Beyond the Grid Fund for Africa.77 Box 5.1 The role of carbon financing in African countries.89 Box 5.2 Liquefied petroleum gas subsidies in India and Morocco.91 Box 5.3 Charcoal-to-Power Project.92 Box 7.1 The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions.118 Box 7.2 Do ex
38、port bans contribute to downstream industries?.125 Box 8.1 Seizing the opportunity of digitalisation through energy efficiency.137 Box 9.1 Climate impacts on African hydropower.152 Box 10.1 The role of development finance institutions and donors.164 Box 10.2 Cost of Capital Observatory.168 IEA.CC BY
39、 4.0.9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive summary Uganda has set an ambitious agenda to develop its substantial energy and mineral resources,promote economic development,end energy poverty,and lead the country to a just energy transition.Ugandas stated objective in Vision 2040 is to trans
40、form into“a modern and prosperous country”,ensuring a better future for its citizens.The energy sector will play an important role in helping Uganda achieve this.Uganda is endowed with abundant natural resources,including fertile soils;petroleum deposits;and reserves of iron ore,phosphates,copper,co
41、balt,aluminium and gold.The agricultural sector employs over 80%of the workforce,mostly in subsistence farming.Uganda had a population of 47 million in 2022,around 25%of which was urban.The countrys fast population growth has undermined efforts to increase access to modern energy.Final energy consum
42、ption was about 16 800 kilotonnes of oil equivalent(ktoe)(703 petajoules PJ)in 2021.Traditional biomass,mostly wood and charcoal used by households for cooking,accounted for around 87%of the total.Around 11%of final consumption was in the form of oil products,mostly petrol and diesel for transportat
43、ion.Only around 2%was in the form of electricity,most of which was from hydropower.Households accounted for 61%of final energy consumption,industry 22%,transportation 7%,and commercial and public services together consumed around 9%.The National Energy Policy for Uganda 2023 focuses on expanding the
44、 electricity transmission and distribution grid networks;increasing energy efficiency;promoting the use of alternative sources of energy;and strengthening the policy,legal and institutional framework.Uganda has developed a number of subsectoral policies,including the 2008 National Oil and Gas Policy
45、(currently under review),the Renewable Energy Policy(2007),and the Electricity Connections Policy(2018).In recent years,Uganda has improved the coverage,quality and timeliness of energy balances and related data.Although Uganda is a leader in the region in terms of energy statistics,as in many other
46、 countries,data collection,organisation and quality control often are not allocated sufficient and consistent resources.Electricity While electricity represents only around 2%of Ugandas total energy consumption,over 80%of generating capacity is based on hydropower.Most of the remainder is also renew
47、able,including several solar photovoltaic(PV)installations and thermal power plants that burn sugar cane bagasse.The significant reliance on hydropower has implications for energy security,particularly due to uncertainties surrounding future climate change impacts on the regions water resources.IEA.
48、CC BY 4.0.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 Uganda increased its electricity generating capacity from about 320 megawatts(MW)in 2002 to over 1 346 MW at the beginning of 2023 and now has a significant surplus relative to its peak demand of about 800 MW.The Karuma hydroelectric power plant,expected to come fully
49、online in 2023,will add a further 600 MW.Investment in transmission and distribution has not kept pace with generation,resulting in an inability to fully use a significant share of the countrys generating capacity.Since past power purchase agreements(PPAs)signed with the state-owned system operator
50、have often included take-or-pay clauses,the government has had to pay for energy that it has not been able to use,adding significantly to the cost of power.The government has avoided subsidising electricity consumption.However,high tariffs have prevented many customers from consuming power,even when
51、 initial connections are subsidised.This,in turn,has made it challenging to finance grid extensions,as well as operation and maintenance;lowering the cost of power is one of the governments priorities.The Cabinet recently decided to merge the three state-owned entities covering generation,transmissi
52、on and distribution into a new,vertically integrated company.This is part of a general policy to rationalise government agencies.In the case of electricity,the government hopes that eliminating private shareholders requirements for a guaranteed return on investment,as well as the ability of a govern
53、ment-backed company to obtain cheaper credit,will help reduce tariffs.It also cites the potential for closer co-ordination of transmission and generation investments as another benefit.However,some stakeholders,including some investors and development partners,have expressed concerns about the uncer
54、tainties related to the proposed merger and its timing.Amendments to the Electricity Act passed in 2022 include the possibility for net metering and for generators to sell directly to customers instead of to the transmission company,which has served as the single buyer.However,regulations allowing m
55、arket participants to take advantage of such measures have yet to be implemented.The government has a scenario to develop a 1 000 MW nuclear power plant by 2031 and another 1 000 MW plant by 2040 in anticipation of rising demand.It is working with the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA),conside
56、red to be in Phase 2 of the IAEA Milestone Approach,and has signed non-binding agreements with companies in the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”)and the Russian Federation(hereafter“Russia”)to explore options.Renewable energy Approximately 92%of Ugandas generating capacity is renewable,of
57、which about 80%consists of large hydro,8%sugar cane bagasse-fired plants and 4.5%solar PV plants.Uganda aims to increase its non-hydro renewable electricity generating capacity,particularly from solar.It introduced PPAs with feed-in tariffs for renewable energy projects under 20 MW in 2007.Individua
58、l and commercial solar systems can help the government meet its electrification targets and spur economic development in rural areas.However,the market for solar home systems and components has been significantly undermined in recent years by faulty installations,the import of substandard systems an
59、d poor after-sales service.IEA.CC BY 4.0.EXCUTIVE SUMMARY 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Uganda appears to have significant geothermal potential,which could help reduce the power systems dependence on hydro.The main challenge for geothermal development in Uganda is the significant resource uncertainty and geo
60、logical risk that private investors must bear in the absence of detailed data.Given the high level of organic content in the countrys municipal waste,significant increases in the urban population,and constraints on land available for new dumps and landfills,waste-to-energy projects appear to be a pa
61、rticularly promising way to diversify the energy supply.The government also hopes to develop biofuels and build up domestic production capacity.Achieving universal access Achieving universal access to clean and reliable energy sources for electricity and cooking remains a challenge in Uganda and is
62、a high priority for the government in achieving economic and social development.With around 30%of the population having access to electricity and less than 6%having access to clean cooking fuels,Uganda continues to have one of the lowest electrification and clean cooking rates in sub-Saharan Africa.
63、Although the share of people with access to clean cooking fuels has rapidly increased since 2010,the rapid population growth has led to the actual number of people without access to effectively increase.In its National Energy Policy 2023,the Ugandan government aims to reach universal access to elect
64、ricity and 50%access to clean cooking by 2040.As of 2022,around 20%of the Ugandan population had access to electricity from the national grid,while a further 10%received electricity from solar home systems capable of providing a basic package of energy service.Another 20%benefitted from limited acce
65、ss through smaller solar lighting devices such as solar lanterns.It is estimated that approximately 50%of the countrys health centres and 20%of its schools have access to electricity,either through grid or off-grid solutions.Low power demand undermines the entire power system,thereby contributing to
66、 grid instability and an unreliable supply that,in turn,undermines consumption.Further,the scattered and sparse settlement patterns of the predominantly rural population compound the cost and complexity of the countrys electrification efforts,making it necessary to consider both on-and off-grid solu
67、tions.Around 95%of households rely on either wood or charcoal as their primary energy source for cooking,creating both social and environmental concerns.High reliance on biomass is contributing to deforestation in parts of the country.Millions of Ugandans are negatively affected each year by indoor
68、pollution from cooking with biomass,which disproportionately impacts women and children.Challenges include the high costs of improved cookstoves and fuels compared to biomass(which when collected is often perceived to be free),the lack of financing for stove distributers and potential customers,insu
69、fficient distribution infrastructure for liquefied petroleum gas(LPG),and cultural and awareness barriers.Even when households adopt clean cooking technologies,they often do so incompletely,continuing to use biomass for much of their cooking needs.IEA.CC BY 4.0.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 Affordability rem
70、ains the main challenge to both electricity access and clean cooking fuel access.The government has implemented several instruments and mechanisms to lower the cost of electricity,such as a social/lifeline electricity tariff and a free connection plan.Yet the level of financial support for these ini
71、tiatives has not been consistent,undermining efforts to help the 33 million people who still lack access to electricity.Similarly,a cooking tariff for electric cooking is available to all grid-connected customers,yet the low connection rate makes the option unavailable to most households.While LPG f
72、or cooking is seen as a potential solution,it is not yet widely available outside urban areas;cylinders are not standardised across distributers;and there are currently no verifications of LPG quality or cylinder fill levels.The government is promoting the use of LPG,including through the distributi
73、on of free start-up kits(including free cylinders),the construction of filling stations outside Kampala and the standardisation of LPG cylinders,which could support increasing access through LPG expansion.Reaching the 2040 access target for electricity and clean cooking will require more targeted go
74、vernment subsidies,foreign investment,awareness campaigns on cooking solutions,as well as better regulations on the sales of cooking fuels.Extractive industries Oil accounted for less than 10%of Ugandas total energy supply in 2021,with all oil products being imported through Kenya and the United Rep
75、ublic of Tanzania,and primarily used for transport.Ugandas first commercial oil discovery occurred in 2006 in the Lake Albert basin.Petroleum resources in the explored part of the Albertine Graben are estimated to be 6.5 billion barrels,of which 1.2 billion are considered recoverable,with an additio
76、nal 0.4 billion barrels of contingent resources.Two oil development projects are being pursued by a consortium of TotalEnergies and China National Oil Corporation,along with the Uganda National Oil Company.Commercial production is scheduled to begin in 2025,and peak production from existing projects
77、 is expected to reach about 200 thousand barrels per day(kb/d)by 2028.The three main upstream investors are developing an oil export pipeline in partnership with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation.The planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline(EACOP)will stretch from Hoima District in weste
78、rn Uganda to the Tanzanian coast at Tanga,providing an outlet for landlocked Ugandan crude oil to the international market.There are also plans for an oil refinery to serve the domestic and East African markets.There is no production nor consumption of natural gas in Uganda,though estimated gas reso
79、urces include 7.1 billion cubic metres(bcm)of associated gas and 9.5 bcm of non-associated gas.Both the Tilenga and Kingfisher projects are expected to produce some gas associated with their oil output,and both plan to use this to generate on-site power and produce LPG for the local market.Additiona
80、lly,the governments of Uganda and Tanzania have agreed to work towards developing a natural gas pipeline from Tanzania to Uganda to supply natural gas for the iron and steel industry as well as for domestic and commercial uses.All tax and non-tax revenues for the government from oil will be received
81、 by the Uganda Revenue Authority and will be deposited in the Petroleum Fund,which was established by the Public Finance Management Act 2015.The Fund is designed to ensure that the IEA.CC BY 4.0.EXCUTIVE SUMMARY 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY revenues from petroleum resources are well managed and allocated fo
82、r the benefit of current and future generations of Ugandans,with an emphasis on infrastructure development.There have been some concerns expressed by international and local groups about the potential environmental and social impact of the EACOP oil project.Social and environmental assessments were
83、conducted for the current oil projects and these have been approved by the respective regulatory agencies.The government sees oil development as a way to diversify energy supplies,improve energy security by cutting reliance on oil imports,build technical competencies for other industrial activities,
84、and provide revenue for the countrys economic and social development.Uganda has no production of critical minerals,but initial exploration in the 2000s suggests that the country has reserves of several minerals critical for the energy transition.Moreover,Ugandas abundant hydropower and renewable ene
85、rgy could help make the country a relatively low-carbon source,potentially giving it a market edge over competing suppliers.Energy efficiency Higher upfront costs,low levels of access to modern energy and a lack of adequate data present important challenges for energy efficiency policy making in Uga
86、nda.Until recently,the absence of a legal framework for energy efficiency has stalled important measures,such as the enforcement of building codes,minimum energy performance standards(MEPS)and labelling regimes.Efforts are underway to develop a legal,regulatory and enforcement framework for energy e
87、fficiency following the adoption of the 2023 National Energy Policy and the anticipated adoption of the draft Energy Efficiency and Conservation Bill.Ugandas fleet of predominantly older and imported vehicles is inefficient compared to global averages.For example,light-duty vehicles(which include pa
88、ssenger cars)consume over 25%more fuel than the average globally.E-mobility initiatives for two-and four-wheel vehicles are being deployed with the support of international donors.The government has set a target to electrify 30%of the motorcycle fleet by 2030.As part of its efforts to expand afforda
89、ble electricity access while growing demand for productive uses of energy,the government has an opportunity to lay the foundations for energy efficiency and ensure greater cost-effectiveness and affordability in the medium and longer term.Climate change and the environment Ugandas current CO2 emissi
90、ons from fuel combustion equal 5.7 million tonnes carbon dioxide(Mt CO2),mostly from the transport sector.Electricity only accounts for 1%of emissions.Challenging environmental issues in Ugandas energy sector include deforestation,land degradation and indoor air pollution related to the use of bioma
91、ss in residential cooking;the vulnerability of the countrys large hydropower-generating capacity to climate change;and the future impact of oil and gas operations on land,water and air resources.Uganda has signed and ratified the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,which requires parties to develop cl
92、imate change policies,strategies and plans promoting adaptation and IEA.CC BY 4.0.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14 mitigation.Priority adaptation actions for the energy sector considered in Ugandas Nationally Determined Contribution(NDC)include improving access to electricity to reduce dependence on biomass,pro
93、moting the use of renewable energy sources and energy-efficient technologies,increasing access to clean cooking options,and rehabilitating and climate-proofing electricity transmission infrastructure.Investment Reforms to improve the investment environment in Uganda include the Investment Code Act 2
94、019,which created the Uganda Investment Authority to act as a one-stop shop to simplify administrative procedures.The Act also lays out a series of tax incentives and other key protections for international investors.In the power sector,over USD 270 million have been mobilised into independent power
95、 producers(IPPs)with private involvement over the last decade.Transmission was recently opened to the private sector,with a pilot project currently under negotiation.Within the distribution sector,there are several private concessions,although ongoing sectoral reforms and the decision not to renew t
96、he largest distribution concession have created some uncertainty.Oil investments so far have been led by Western and Chinese companies,though pressure on financiers,particularly in Europe,to align their portfolios with a net zero scenario may reduce the capital available for such projects going forw
97、ard.Mining for critical minerals remains nascent but is likely to attract private capital once geological viability is confirmed and the regulatory framework fully established.The cost of capital remains one of the major challenges.Small and medium-sized enterprises in the off-grid space rely heavil
98、y on local commercial banks,but these banks often struggle to assess the risk of off-grid solutions.They,therefore,can only provide loans at prohibitive rates.While there is potential for domestic institutional investors,especially pension funds,to play a larger role,high yields on government securi
99、ties reduce the incentive to invest in alternative assets.Climate-related funds can serve as a source of capital for clean power projects,though the governments experience with such funds so far has been with procedures that are often long and complex.The Ugandan government has established the Natio
100、nal Climate Change Mechanisms Taskforce in 2022 to address opportunities related to both Article 6 and voluntary carbon markets.Key recommendations Develop,implement and track an Energy Transition Plan to chart a path for achieving Ugandas energy-related goals while aiming for a transition to a low-
101、carbon,climate-resilient economy,including by considering new technologies and innovation,in line with the Paris Agreement and Ugandas Nationally Determined Contribution.Further develop the national energy statistics system to improve data coverage and quality to better inform policy decisions.Conti
102、nue addressing transmission bottlenecks and stimulation of demand for productive uses of energy as priorities to take greater advantage of existing generation,increase grid stability,lower the cost of power and potentially serve more customers.IEA.CC BY 4.0.EXCUTIVE SUMMARY 15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Cont
103、inue consultations on power sector reforms and provide clarity to stakeholders on details as soon as practicable.During the transition period,ensure continued investment in and maintenance of the distribution grid.Ensure that efforts to provide access to electricity are closely co-ordinated with oth
104、er development plans so that new connections can foster economic development and productive uses of energy.This should include access to adequate and affordable financing schemes.Ensure that the national clean-cooking strategy under development covers as many technologies and consumer categories as
105、possible;is integrated with a comprehensive action plan on sustainable biomass use;and employs complementary tools such as technical assistance,training,research,financial incentives and awareness raising.Continue working with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and other partners rega
106、rding best practice for oil revenue transparency,management and investment,including the use of its Petroleum Fund,to ensure that Ugandas oil revenues help the country achieve its economic,social and sustainable development goals.Take the lead in exploring and identifying promising areas to attract
107、investment in mineral production,in particular by financing the further exploration of several of the 18 mineral deposits already identified,prioritising the critical minerals necessary for the worldwide transition to renewable energies.Leverage the potential of energy efficiency as an enabler of af
108、fordable and sustainable energy access and demand growth in both rural and urban settings through incentives and dedicated funding instruments for the purchase of energy-efficient equipment by end users while also ensuring e-mobility plans are effectively implemented so the government can reach its
109、objectives.Identify sectors and key projects for public-private partnerships that would allow for the design of mutually beneficial financing structures,including domestic sources of capital where appropriate.IEA.CC BY 4.0.IEA.CC BY 4.0.17 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY1.General energy pol
110、icyKey data(2021)Total energy supply:22 Mtoe(bioenergy 90%,oil products 9%)Total final consumption:17 Mtoe(bioenergy 87%,oil products 11%,electricity 2%)Country overview Straddling the equator on the East African Plateau,Uganda is bordered by Kenya to the east,Tanzania and Rwanda to the south,the De
111、mocratic Republic of the Congo to the west,and South Sudan to the north.Although landlocked,it has a long shoreline on Lake Victoria and is part of the Nile River Basin.Uganda has a total surface area of 241 038 km,of which about 80%is land.Ugandas population was 47 million in 2022.A little over 25%
112、was urban,compared to an African average of 43%.The country has a relatively high population density of 230 inhabitants per km,and nearly half the population is under 15.The average number of persons per household is 4.6,though it is somewhat smaller in urban areas(UBOS,2021).The countrys high ferti
113、lity rate has made it difficult for GDP and energy access to keep up with population growth of 3%1.The governments overall policy document,Vision 2040,projects a population of 61 million by 2040,though some sources suggest it could exceed 80 million by that time(World Bank,2022).In addition to the c
114、apital city of Kampala,the country is divided into 134 administrative districts.The main spoken languages are English and Swahili,along with regionally based languages such as Luganda and Luo.Approximately 85%of the population is Christian,while 12%is Muslim.Between 1990 and 2010,Uganda had one of t
115、he highest GDP growth rates in Africa at around 8%,though economic growth since 2011 has barely surpassed population growth.In 2019,annual GDP growth was 6.8%,slowing to 2.9%in 2020,largely due to the impact of Covid-19(World Bank,2022).Vision 2040 aims for the country to become a lower middle-incom
116、e country by 2017 and an upper-middle income one by 2032.As of January 2023,the World Bank continued to categorise Uganda as a low-income country,i.e.one with a per capita income of USD 1 085 or less.1 See World Bank Population growth for Uganda,https:/data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locati
117、ons=UG IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY18 Figure 1.1 Energy demand and drivers,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:GDP=gross domestic product.Source:IEA(2023).Ugandas natural resources include fertile soils;petroleum deposits;and reserves of iron ore,phosphates,copper,cobalt,aluminium,gold and limesto
118、ne.The largest sources of GDP are agricultural processing,textiles,light manufacturing and cement.The countrys most important exports include coffee,tea,maize,cotton,flowers,fish,gold and tobacco,while its main imports are petroleum products,machinery,manufactured goods,chemicals and grains.Future g
119、rowth is likely to depend significantly on the development of agriculture and oil(IDA,2022).The agricultural sector currently employs over 80%of the workforce,though mostly as subsistence farmers.Uganda hosts more refugees than any other country in Africa.As of January 2022,it had 1.6 million refuge
120、es and asylum seekers,many of whom were residing in the West Nile Sub-region.Ugandas refugee policies are generally recognised as robust and closely aligned with the Global Compact on Refugees(World Bank,2022).Uganda has developed and is currently implementing a number of“refugee and host community
121、sector response plans”,including a“Sustainable Energy Response Plan,”which provides priorities and guidance for development partners to assist the government in this sector.According to the World Economic Forums Global Gender Gap Report 2021(WEF,2021),Uganda tied for first(along with 28 others)out o
122、f 156 countries in terms of the narrow gap between men and women for outcomes related to“health and survival”.(A smaller number/rank means a smaller gap.)It ranked 74th in“economic participation and opportunity”and 46th in“political empowerment”,though 131st in“educational attainment”.100 200 300 40
123、020002005201020152021Index(2000=100)GDPElectricityoutputTotal finalconsumptionPopulationIEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY19 1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICYFigure 1.2 Overview of Ugandas energy system by fuel and sector,2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:PJ=petajoule;TFC=total final consumption.Source:IEA(2023).En
124、ergy supply and demand According to IEA data,total energy supply in Uganda in 2021 was about 22 million tonnes of oil equivalent(Mtoe)(925 PJ),up from 17.6 Mtoe(737 PJ)in 2015.Approximately 90%of the energy supply in 2021 was bioenergy,mainly wood and charcoal,slightly down from 94%in 2000.Imported
125、oil products represented almost 9%and electricity almost 2%(Figure 1.3).Nearly all electricity in Uganda is from hydropower.Final energy consumption in 2021 was about 17 Mtoe(703 PJ),up from about 14 Mtoe(579 PJ)in 2015.Around 87%of final consumption the same year was bioenergy,mostly wood and charc
126、oal consumed by households for cooking,as well as some sugar cane bagasse for co-generation of electricity at several sugar-processing plants.Approximately 11%of final consumption was in the form of oil products,mostly petrol and diesel for transportation,as well as some heavy fuel oil and diesel fo
127、r the countrys small number of thermal power plants.Only around 2%of final consumption was in the form of electricity.200 400 6008001 000ProductionTotal energy supplyTFC(by fuel)TFC(by sector)PJOther renewables*ElectricityOilBioenergy and wasteTransformations and lossesIndustryTransportBuildingsImpo
128、rtsIEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY20 Figure 1.3 Total energy supply by fuel in Uganda,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Mtoe=million tonnes of oil equivalent.Source:IEA(2023).Households accounted for about 61%of final energy consumption,industry 22%,transportation 7%and public services 9%(Figure 1.
129、4).In 2021,total final consumption was around 0.37 toe per capita,up from 0.31 toe in 2000.Figure 1.4 Total final consumption by sector and per capita in Uganda,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Mtoe=million tonnes of oil equivalent;toe=tonne of oil equivalent;TFC=total final consumption.Source:IEA,(202
130、3).Uganda has one of the lowest grid-electricity connection rates in the world at around 20%in 2020,although a further 27%of the population has access to various off-grid solutions ranging from solar home systems to solar lanterns(MEMD,2023a).5 10 15 20 2520002005201020152021MtoeHydroOilBioenergy an
131、dwaste 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 3 6 9 12 15 01020152021toe per capitaMtoeTransportBuildings-servicesIndustryBuildings-residentialTFC/capita(rightaxis)IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY21 1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICYIn Uganda,as in most countries in the region,the use of biomass such as firew
132、ood fuel(especially in rural areas)and charcoal(especially in urban areas)is predominant in the energy mix,mainly due to the extremely low access to modern energy cooking technology.In 2021,biomass represented around 87%of Ugandas final energy consumption,down from 93%in 2000,mainly due to the incre
133、ased use of fossil fuels in the transport sector.However,the absolute amount of biomass consumed has more than doubled,from 7 Mtoe in 2000 to 15 Mtoe in 2021.Although most biomass consumption is connected to traditional cooking practices,it is also used in Uganda for more modern purposes,like electr
134、icity generation.Sugar cane bagasse accounts for the second-largest electricity generation source in Uganda after hydropower(see Chapters 2 and 3).Key institutions in the energy sector The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development(MEMD)is the main government institution in Ugandas energy sector.Its
135、 roles include providing policy guidance,creating an enabling environment to attract investment,acquiring and interpreting data regarding the energy and mineral resource potential of the country,monitoring the activities of private companies,and overseeing regulatory institutions.The MEMD has three
136、main directorates:Energy Resources Development,Petroleum,and Geological Survey and Mines,as well as a number of cross-cutting units,such as the Department of Policy and Planning.The MEMDs policy goals are:“to meet the energy needs of Ugandas population for social and economic developmentin an enviro
137、nmentally sustainable manner”“to use the countrys oil and gas resources to contribute to early achievement of povertyeradication and create lasting value to society”“to develop the mineral sector for it to contribute significantly to sustainable nationaleconomic and social growth”.The MEMDs website
138、notes the following“major strategies”in the energy sector:“increase the energy mix in power generation,promote and co-invest in the developmentof new power generation and transmission projects”“promote and/or implement rural electrification through grid extension,development ofdecentralized power su
139、pply systems and use of renewable energy resources”“promote and monitor petroleum exploration,development and production by the privatesector for local consumption and export”“carry out energy audits and consumer awareness campaigns for energy efficiency”“promote more efficient modes of transportati
140、on,in order to maintain security of petroleumproducts supply and curb smuggling”.The MEMD is guided by national policies such as Vision 2040,the Third National Development Plan and the National Energy Policy for Uganda 2023(see below).IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY22 Box 1.1 Proposed project
141、for an Integrated Energy Resource Master Plan The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development is considering the development of an Integrated Energy Resource Master Plan(IERMP),with which it hopes to co-ordinate its various energy-related programmes and strategies.The overall goal would be to“provide
142、 national decision makers with the quantitative base for planning future energy sector development”.The Concept Note for the IERMP observes that the Ministrys current planning function faces significant challenges“due to absence of a long-term energy master plan,understaffing and low technical capac
143、ity,lack of data and tools for proper planning and management of the sector.”The Ministry envisions several components to its proposed IERMP project,including a low-carbon Energy Transition Plan,an Energy Data Platform,and capacity building and institutional support from development partners.Source:
144、MEMD(2023b).The National Environmental Management Authority(NEMA)is a semi-autonomous body created in 1995 under the National Environment Act.It is the principal agency responsible for co-ordinating,monitoring,regulating and supervising environmental management.In the energy sector,it is responsible
145、 for issuing environmental clearance certificates,following its review and approval of environmental audits,impact assessments and resettlement plans.The Uganda Investment Authority is a one-stop shop where investors may obtain applications for company registration and various licences,including for
146、 investment projects in the energy sector.The Uganda National Bureau of Standards(UNBS)is a statutory body under the Ministry of Trade,Industry and Cooperatives.It formulates and promotes the use of national standards and develops and monitors quality control and assurance systems.In the energy sect
147、or,this notably includes standards for biofuel technologies and renewable energy components such as solar PV systems.Other institutions include the following;they are discussed in relevant chapters of this review:Petroleum Authority of Uganda(PAU)Uganda National Oil Company(UNOC)Electricity Regulato
148、ry Authority(ERA)Rural Electrification Department of the MEMDUganda Energy Credit Capitalisation Company(UECCC)Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited(UEGCL)Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited(UETCL)Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited(UEDCL)Electricity Disputes Tribunal
149、Atomic Energy Council.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY23 1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICYKey policy documents Vision 2040 In 2007,the government began a consultative and planning process that resulted in the publication of Vision 2040 in 2013.Vision 2040 aspires to“change the country from a predominantl
150、y low-income to a competitive upper-middle income country within 30 years”(NPA,2017).Energy-related targets the country aims to achieve by 2040 include the following:raise per capita electricity consumption to 3 668 kilowatt hours(kWh),from 75 kWh in 2010(by 2020 it was around 100 kWh)increase the s
151、hare of the population with access to electricity to 80%,from 11%in 2011(by 2020,20%of the population was connected to the grid,while a further 27%benefittedfrom various off-grid solutions).Third National Development Plan Vision 2040 is being operationalised through a series of five-year national de
152、velopment plans.The government is currently implementing the Third National Development Plan(NDP III),which covers the period 2020/21 to 2024/25.The NDP III focuses on“enhancing value addition in key growth opportunities(agriculture,tourism,minerals,oil and gas,and knowledge),which have the highest
153、potential to generate employment for our people and positive multiplier effects on other sectors”(NPA,2020).It features a shift to a programmatic approach from the sector-wide approach of the Second National Development Plan.The NDP III contains 18 programmes,2 of which are directly related to the e
154、nergy sector:“Sustainable Development of Petroleum Resources”and“Energy Development”.It also contains 20“key development strategies”,of which the most directly relevant for the energy sector are:“Fast track oil,gas and mineral-based industrialisation”,and“Increase access to stable,reliable and affor
155、dable energy”.(The energy-related development strategies and programmes are discussed later in this report.)Additional strategies in NDP III include:“Promote science,technology,engineering and innovation as well as ICT”,and“Increase government participation in strategic sectors”.Regarding the govern
156、ments participation in strategic sectors,there has been an apparent shift to more direct government involvement and investment in key areas,including energy.The NDP III notes that lessons learnt over the previous decade have led to Uganda revisiting the role of government,since“the market alone is u
157、nlikely to optimally drive Ugandas development process.A quasi-market approach is required”(NPA,2020).A World Bank assessment of the NDP III from March 2022 comments that the plan had been approved a few months into the Covid-19 pandemic,so it was“based on a set of expectations and projections that
158、may have since changed considerably”.Nevertheless,it notes that the NDP III“to a large extent reflects a broad national consensus”and addresses“the bulk of the development constraints and opportunities identified”by a recent World Bank diagnostic study(IDA,2022).IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY
159、24 National Energy Policy for Uganda 2023 The National Energy Policy for Uganda 2023 replaces the previous energy policy,which was adopted in 2002.It provides a detailed list of challenges and policy priorities in most energy subsectors,including electricity,renewable energy,energy efficiency,rural
160、electrification,clean cooking and nuclear power.The major subsector not covered is petroleum,which it notes is addressed by the 2008 National Oil and Gas Policy,which at that time was“currently under review”(MEMD,2023a).The overall objective of the new National Energy Policy is to“ensure a sustainab
161、le,adequate,affordable,competitive,secure and reliable supply of energy at the least cost geared to meet national and county needs while protecting and conserving the environment”(MEMD,2023a).The new National Energy Policy points out that a number of important contextual changes have occurred since
162、the previous Energy Policy was adopted in 2002.These include moving from a situation of severe electricity capacity shortage to one of capacity surplus,as well as a shift from primarily private sector-led growth to increased use of public-private partnerships(PPPs)and public financing,aimed at incre
163、asing affordability.It also notes that the new Energy Policy is aligned with the key policies and international frameworks developed since 2022,including Vision 2040,the NDP III,and the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals(MEMD,2023a).The National Energy Policy identifies the following
164、overall challenges facing the sector:“low levels of access to affordable and modern energy services”“constrained economic development due to inadequate energy sector investments”“high system power losses,poor quality of service,and unreliable power supply”“environmental degradation due to unsustaina
165、ble utilization of biomass energy resources”“inefficient utilization of energy”“inadequate technical capacity in private and public institutions”“insufficient public awareness”,leading to“low uptake of modern energy services”.The National Energy Policy notes the following key focus areas:“increasing
166、 power generation,expanding the electricity transmission and distribution grid networks,increasing energy efficiency,promoting the use of alternative energy sources,and strengthening the policy,legal and institutional framework”(MEMD,2023a).It also lists challenges and policy priorities for each ene
167、rgy subsector,discussed in the corresponding sectoral chapters of this report.Table 1.1 lists selected targets set out in the National Energy Policy.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY25 1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICYTable 1.1 Selected targets from Ugandas National Energy Policy 2023 Indicator Baseline(2
168、021)Target(2040)Households with at least one source of clean and modern energy on-or off-grid 50%100%Rate of electricity access(grid-connected)24%65%Electricity generation capacity(MW)1 251 52 481 Electricity consumption(kWh per capita)100 578 Population using clean cooking fuels and technologies 95
169、%Increased energy diversification(energy resources in the energy mix)5 8Energy intensity(MJ per 2017 USD GDP)9.97 3.7 CO2 emissions from energy activities(Mt CO2-eq)7.39 10.1 Notes:MW=megawatt;kWh=kilowatt hour;MJ=megajoule;USD=United States dollar;GDP=gross domestic product;Mt CO2-eq=million tonnes
170、 carbon dioxide equivalent.Source:MEMD(2023a).Related policies In addition to these overall policy documents,Uganda has developed the following subsector policies,which are discussed later in this report:Renewable Energy Policy(2007)(Chapter 3)Oil and Gas Policy(2008)(Chapter 6)Electricity Connectio
171、ns Policy(2018)(Chapter 2).Key laws in Ugandas energy sector include the:Electricity Act(1999,amended 2022)Petroleum Supply Act(2003)Mining Act(2003)Atomic Energy Act(2008)Petroleum Acts(upstream and midstream)(2013)Biofuels Act(2013).Uganda has also produced the following cross-cutting and sectoral
172、 policies with relevance for the energy sector:Forestry Policy(2001)Gender Policy(2007)Transport Master Plan 2008-2023Agriculture Policy(2013)Land Policy(2013)Climate Change Policy(2015)Environmental and Social Safeguards Policy(2018)IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY26 National Strategy for Priv
173、ate Sector Development 2017/18-2021/22Uganda Green Growth Development Strategy 2017/18-2030/31Sustainable Energy Response Plan for Refugees and Host Communities in Uganda2021-2025.Energy statistics The Uganda Bureau of Statistics(UBOS)publishes energy data on a regular basis,including an annual Stat
174、istical Extract and several documents for the power sector.The National Household Surveys,which UBOS conducts every four years,contain information on energy use,including the types of energy employed for cooking and lighting.The most recent survey took place in 2019/20(with half of households visite
175、d before the Covid-19 pandemic and half during the pandemic).The next National Household Survey is due to take place during 2024/25.The UBOS Act of 1998 delegates authority to various government ministries and agencies to collect statistics related to their sectoral jurisdictions on behalf of UBOS.F
176、or example,the ERA collects statistics from actors in the power sector,while the PAU does so in the oil and gas sector.The MEMD does not collect primary energy statistics but compiles data that it requests from other agencies into a Statistical Abstract,which the MEMD then disseminates to policy mak
177、ers and makes publicly available online.The National Energy Policy calls for energy-related statistics to be entered into an Energy Information Management System,which is to include data on energy resources and exploitation opportunities,feasibility studies,and funding.The intention is to make this
178、database publicly available.The MEMDs Department of Sectoral Planning and Policy Analysis is developing the Energy Information Management System,which is intended to serve as a one-stop shop for all statistics compiled by the Ministry.The MEMD has also created a Sector Statistics Committee to valida
179、te data with the collaboration of other sectoral bodies and UBOS.However,limited funding reportedly has made it difficult to carry out such work.Given the importance of access to electricity,efforts to track access rates have combined grid connection data gathered by the regulator from distribution
180、companies,with surveys capturing access through off-grid technologies.In addition,a GIS working group co-ordinates data collection and sharing for electrification planning,including grid connection data at the village level and electricity demand at the district level.Energy-related research and dev
181、elopment Research organisations and academia often play an important role in developing energy solutions targeted to national and local circumstances.One of the NDP IIIs 18 programmes,“Innovation Technology Development and Transfer”,calls for building a“well-coordinated science,technology and innova
182、tion eco-system”.The programmes key targets include increasing gross expenditure on research and development to 1%of GDP by the end of the five-year programme,i.e.by mid-2025,up from a baseline of 0.4%.The priority sectors for investment listed in the NDP III are agriculture,oil and gas,energy,healt
183、h,and transport.The NDP III also aims to increase Ugandas ranking in the World Intellectual Property Organizations Global Innovation Index from 102nd out of 129 IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY27 1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICYeconomies,although by 2022,Ugandas Global Innovation Index ranking had falle
184、n to 119th(out of 132),placing it 16th among the 27 economies of sub-Saharan Africa.The National Energy Policy for Uganda 2023 lists“Continuous innovation,research and development”as one of its nine“guiding principles”,and notes that“government will support research initiatives and promote the devel
185、opment and dissemination of locally adapted and designed solutions and technologies”.It specifically calls for support to research in renewable energy technologies and solutions(p.51),biomass(p.60),thermal gasification technologies(p.61),improved cookstoves(p.84),biogas(p.84),energy efficiency(p.63)
186、,nuclear energy(p.66),and the impacts of climate change on the countrys power supply system(p.84)(MEMD,2023a).The Science,Technology and Innovation(STI)Secretariat,a semi-autonomous entity under the Office of the President,co-ordinates energy research in Uganda.Its mandate is to“mobilize,coordinate
187、and provide strategic oversight and policy guidance to scientists and stakeholders in ministries,departments and agencies,local governments,academic and research institutions,private sector,schools and vocational institutions,regulators,development partners,media,and the public along the prioritized
188、 industrial value chains to increase productivity,import substitution and export of knowledge-based products and services”(STI,2023).There are a number of parastatal research organisations under the auspices of the STI Secretariat.These include the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology,
189、whose mandate is to“develop and implement policies and strategies for integrating science and technology(S&T)into the national development policies;to advise the government of Uganda on policy matters necessary for promoting S&T;and coordinating and guiding national research and development(R&D)in U
190、ganda”(UNCST,2023).Others conducting energy-related research include the Uganda Industrial Research Institute,whose Energy Systems Division has undertaken projects on topics such as energy-efficient cookstoves;wind and solar PV technologies;solar drying;briquette quality;biomass gasification;and bio
191、ethanol,biochar,biogas and biodiesel production.The Centre for Research in Energy and Energy Conservation(CREEC),located at the College of Engineering,Design,Art and Technology of Makerere University,conducts research,training and consultancy projects with a focus on bioenergy,solar PV,pico-hydro,an
192、d energy efficiency and management.Among other projects,CREEC has conducted much of the testing that informs the energy-related standards developed by UBOS.CREEC notes that it does not currently offer any services in the areas of solar thermal,wind energy,geothermal or fossil fuel technologies,altho
193、ugh Makerere University is partnering with a number of the oilfield service providers active in Ugandas petroleum industry to help train local personnel for technical careers in the oil and gas sector(CREEC,2023).Assessment Uganda has set an ambitious agenda to develop its substantial energy and min
194、eral resources,promote economic development,end energy poverty,and lead the country to a just energy transition.Ugandas stated objective in Vision 2040 is to transform into“a modern and prosperous country”,ensuring a better future for its citizens.The energy sector can play an important role in help
195、ing Uganda obtain this worthy objective.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY28 Uganda has the technical expertise,government institutions and policy frameworks in place to achieve its energy policy goals.Its strategies,including Vision 2040,the new National Energy Policy and the Third National Deve
196、lopment Plan,among others,identify the challenges to overcome and set clear and ambitious targets.The recent shift from sector-wide to a programmatic approach in the NDP III,aimed at improving integration across the national-level programmes,creates a clear structure but will require effort to ensur
197、e co-ordination.Given the cross-sectoral nature of energy and mineral resource policies and planning,co-ordination and consultation will be important for ensuring consistent,efficient and effective formulation and implementation.Uganda already has many specific energy-related policies and plans acro
198、ss the government.This increases the importance of a holistic approach to facilitate prioritisation,avoid duplication,streamline processes,and strengthen tracking and enforcement.The MEMDs proposal to develop an Integrated Energy Resource Master Plan to enable long-term planning identifies many of t
199、hese concerns and offers a framework to address them.A focused,well co-ordinated,long-term approach could provide greater clarity and certainty in terms of policy implementation,especially if accompanied by capacity building and heightened efforts to provide information and communicate both across g
200、overnment and to the broader public.In the regional context,Uganda is part of the East African Community,the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the East African Power Pool.Efforts to promote cross-border energy infrastructure and trade,notably for electricity and oil;the adoption and enf
201、orcement of standards at the regional level;and strategies to create hubs for new sectors could be beneficial.Timely and reliable energy data are essential for evidence-based policy making.Disaggregated national energy balances represent the first step.In the context of sub-Saharan African countries
202、,with relatively low access to modern energy and fast population and economic growth,estimating future demand correctly is critical for energy planning.Additional data,such as socio-economic information and geographically disaggregated(or GIS)data on the location of infrastructures,resources and com
203、munities is also important.The IEA has co-operated with Uganda on energy data and statistics for several years.The country has made important efforts that have led to improved coverage,quality and timeliness of energy balances and related data.Nevertheless,a better understanding of national energy t
204、rends would require a further breakdown of final consumption data,especially in the industry and transport subsectors,but also by end uses for the residential sector.Although Uganda is a leader in the region in terms of energy statistics,as in many other countries,data collection,organisation and qu
205、ality control often are not allocated sufficient resources.Lack of adequate funding and capacity can lead to data gaps and delays,for instance reducing the frequency of energy surveys or limiting systematic data verification procedures.This,in turn,reduces the quality and usefulness of the data for
206、policy making.In addition,the development of data platforms to facilitate collection and use across government and with key stakeholders improves transparency and enhances information sharing.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY29 1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICYGiven the importance of electricity access,fu
207、rther efforts are required to better track access to off-grid technologies,for example by establishing licensing frameworks that require accredited companies to report data(e.g.sales or connections).With a large majority of the population in Uganda using biomass(firewood and charcoal)as their main e
208、nergy source,tracking the use of biomass will also be important.Recommendations To reach its objectives,the government of Uganda should consider:Developing,implementing and tracking an Energy Transition Plan to chart a path forachieving Ugandas energy-related goals while aiming for a transition to a
209、 low-carbon,climate-resilient economy in line with the Paris Agreement and Ugandas NationallyDetermined Contribution.Continuing efforts to enhance policy co-ordination across government and enablelong-term planning could include developing and adopting an Integrated EnergyResources Master Plan.Prior
210、itising communication and dialogue across government and with keystakeholders(local government,the private sector,civil society and developmentpartners)to build awareness and understanding of policies and planned reforms toreduce uncertainty and strengthen confidence.Further developing the national
211、energy statistics system to improve data coverage andquality to better inform policy decisions.This could involve expanding mandates andlegal obligations to share data,further empowering the existing energy data workinggroup,implementing data quality verification procedures(preferably embedded in th
212、edata collection and processing tools),and reinforcing the effectiveness of existingnational energy data platforms.Ensuring sustainable funding and capacity building for the expanded collection,analysis and dissemination of energy-related data across government in co-ordinationwith key stakeholders,
213、including local governments,the private sector and academicinstitutions.Specific resources could be allocated to ensure the expansion and regularupdate of GIS data,including the acquisition of software and hardware to collect,process and store data.Co-operating with international and regional entiti
214、es such as the IEA and the AfricanEnergy Commission to align to international energy statistics standards for definitionsand best practices.For tracking off-grid access to electricity,in particular,obtaining data from privateplayers such as mini-grid operators and solar home system suppliers,for exa
215、mple byestablishing licensing frameworks that require accredited companies to report salesor connections.Improving the access and dissemination of national energy statistics online byproviding the most recent information on a regular basis and publishing in user-friendlyformats such as spreadsheets
216、or csv.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.GENERAL ENERGY POLICY30 ReferencesCREEC(Centre for Research in Energy and Energy Conservation)(2023),CREECwebsite,https:/www.creec.or.ugIDA(International Development Association)(2022),Third National Development Plan(NDPIII)2022/21-2024/25:Assessment Letter,https:/documents.wo
217、rldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/7907437/uganda-third-national-development-plan-ndpiii-2020-21-2024-25-assessment-letterIEA(International Energy Agency)(2023),World Energy Balances,IEA World EnergyStatistics and Balances(database),https:/www.iea.org/data-and-sta
218、tistics/data-product/world-energy-balances (accessed 15 June 2023)MEMD(Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development)(2023a),Energy Policy for Uganda2023.MEMD(2023b),Concept Note:Developing an Integrated Energy Resource Master Plan forUganda.NPA(National Planning Authority)(2020),Third National Develop
219、ment Plan(NDPIII)2020/21-2024/25,http:/www.npa.go.ug/development-plans/national-development-plan-ndpNPA(2017),Uganda Vision 2040,http:/www.npa.go.ug/uganda-vision-2040STI(Science,Technology,and Innovation Secretariat)(2023),STI Secretariat website,https:/www.sti.go.ugUBOS(Uganda Bureau of Statistics
220、)(2021),Statistical Extract.UNCST(Uganda National Council for Science and Technology)(2023),UNCST website,https:/www.uncst.go.ugWEF(World Economic Forum)(2021),Global Gender Gap Report 2021:Insight Report,https:/www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GGGR_2021.pdfWorld Bank(2022),Project appraisal documentfor an
221、 electricity access scale-up project,https:/projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P166685IEA.CC BY 4.0.31 2.ELECTRICITY2.ElectricityKey data(2021)Total electricity generation:5.2 TWh,+14%since 2020 Electricity generation mix:hydro 90%,bagasse-fired co-generation 7%,solar 2%,oi
222、l 1%Electricity net exports:0.40 TWh(imports 0.03 TWh,exports 0.43 TWh)1 Installed capacity:1 346 MW Peak domestic demand:785 MW Electricity consumption:3.8 TWh(residential 22%,industry 66%,commercial 12%)Overview Ugandas generation mix depends heavily on hydropower,which typically accounts for over
223、 80%of the countrys electricity.Most additional capacity is also renewable,including several solar PV installations and thermal power plants running on sugar cane bagasse.Since the unbundling of the electricity supply industry at the turn of the century,generation capacity has substantially increase
224、d,technical losses have been reduced and there has been a shift towards cost-reflective tariffs.However,Uganda continues to have one of the lowest electricity access rates in sub-Saharan Africa due,in part,to connection costs that are too high for most potential customers.Even when connections have
225、been subsidised,consumption typically has been low,due largely to the high cost of power.Low consumption makes it challenging to fund grid maintenance and expansion,as well as to maintain grid stability on long,low-demand networks.Lack of adequate transmission and distribution infrastructure also pr
226、events the full use of a significant share of Ugandas power plants,although available capacity is still above peak demand.Take-or-pay contracts with many generators require the government to purchase a significant amount of unused energy,contributing to high consumer tariffs(relative to the sub-Saha
227、ran average),which the government has avoided subsidising.The government unbundled the power sector beginning in 1999,creating three separate state-owned companies one for generation,one for transmission and one for distribution.Several of the countrys major power plants and its main distribution as
228、sets were placed under concessions in the early 2000s,and the high guaranteed rates of return in these contracts have also contributed to the high consumer tariffs.1 Electricity Regulatory Authority Database,2022.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 32 Government priorities in the sector include finding ways
229、 to lower the cost of power and increase electricity access and demand,focusing on economically productive uses of energy,particularly in the agricultural sector.It cites cost reduction as the main reason for not renewing the major concession contracts in generation and distribution when they expire
230、 in 2023 and 2025 and for plans to remerge the three state-owned companies in the sector.Governance The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development,through its Directorate of Energy Resources Development,is responsible for overall policy making in the power sector.The Electricity Regulatory Authority
231、 is an independent body established in 2000 under the Electricity Act 1999.Its five-member board is appointed by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Development.The ERA regulates the generation,transmission,distribution,sale,export and import of electricity and issues and monitors licences in these a
232、reas.It also approves tariff structures,performance standards,and service terms and conditions.The Electricity Disputes Tribunal was established by the Electricity Act 1999 to arbitrate cases when stakeholders appeal a decision by the ERA.The tribunal has the powers of the High Court of Uganda.The A
233、tomic Energy Council was established by the Atomic Energy Act 2008 to“regulate the peaceful applications of ionizing radiation”.It is responsible for the“production and use of radiation sources and the management of radioactive waste”,as well as Ugandas compliance with international safety standards
234、 in this area.Uganda currently does not have any nuclear power plants,but the 2023 Energy Strategy calls for developing a nuclear industry,including nuclear power(MEMD,2023a).Other government bodies that play a role in the power sector include the Uganda National Bureau of Standards and the National
235、 Environmental Management Authority(see Chapter 1).See Chapter 4 for a discussion of the Rural Electrification Department of the MEMD(formerly the Rural Electrification Agency).Additional bodies,such as state-owned and private companies in the power sector,are discussed in relevant sections of the p
236、resent chapter.Major policy documents and legislation Important policies and laws governing the power sector notably include:Vision 2040 and NDP III 2023 Energy Policy Electricity Act 1999,including the 2022 amendments Statutory Instruments and Guidelines issued by the ERA Renewable Energy Policy 20
237、07 Electricity Connections Policy(2018-2027)National Electrification Strategy(2021-2030)National Environmental Act Grid Development Plan Generation Development Plan(draft).IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 33 2.ELECTRICITY Several of these are discussed below while others are discussed in other chapters.T
238、hird National Development Plan The NDP III,which operationalises the governments Vision 2040 strategy,contains the following main objectives for the power sector:increase access to and use of electricity and increase generation capacity(NPA,2020).“Key results”to be achieved in the power sector over
239、the five years of the NDP III(i.e.between FY 2018/19 and 2024/25)include:increasing the proportion of the population with access to electricity from 24%to 60%;increasing per capita electricity consumption from under 100 kWh to 578 kWh;and nearly doubling the total length of transmission lines from 2
240、 354 km to 4 354 km.The NDP III lists“Core projects”in the sector,including developing the 840-MW Ayago hydropower plant,upgrading specific substations,and constructing particular transmission and distribution lines.It also lists“key implementation reforms required to fully implement the programme a
241、nd realise expected goals in the next five years”(implementation status as of May 2023 in italics):“Develop and implement service delivery standards for energy services.”The ERA has developed several different standards and guidelines for service delivery.2 “Consider restructuring the sector to redu
242、ce the multiplicity of players to lower costs,increase efficiency and improve coordination.”The government announced it is planning to remerge the three state-owned generation,transmission and distribution companies into a vertically integrated national electricity company;the World Bank is helping
243、it obtain the services of a consultant to study the options.“Review the Electricity Act,1999 and amend the distribution voltage to 66 kV to enable utilities to distribute power at a relatively higher voltage to minimize distribution losses.”The amendments approved by parliament in May 2022 include s
244、uch a provision.“Review the existing policies to address gaps in alternative sources of energy for cooking,sustainable exploitation of biomass,and development of nuclear and geothermal resources for power generation.”This policy review is ongoing,but action already includes the introduction of a coo
245、king tariff,which was launched by the ERA in January 2022.“Revise Energy Policy of 2002 to align it with regional and international frameworks and ensure that the government is well positioned to address the emerging socio-economic challenges of the energy sector.”After three years of review and sta
246、keholder consultation,the Cabinet approved a revised Energy Policy in April 2023.“Develop a framework for net metering.”Net metering is now allowed in principle by the 2022 amendments to the Electricity Act,although supporting regulations have yet to be adopted.2023 Energy Policy The Cabinet approve
247、d a new Energy Policy in April 2023,replacing the 2002 Energy Policy.Important contextual changes to Ugandas power sector since the previous version include a shift from large generation shortage to large surplus,increased electrification 2 See:https:/www.era.go.ug/index.php/resource-centre/regulato
248、ry-instruments/guidelines-and-standards IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 34 (from 5%in 2002 to 26%in 2022),and several decades of experience with concessions in the generation and distribution subsectors.The most important challenges in the power sector as highlighted by the 2023 Energy Policy are access
249、 levels,which remain low compared to other African countries,high system power losses and unreliable supply.Additional“key issues”include:“undiversified electricity generation mix”,with a high reliance on hydropower “uncoordinated execution for power generation in line with transmission and distribu
250、tion infrastructure”“high generation tariffs arising from commercial loan financing,among other unfavourable financing terms affecting end-user tariffs”“high upfront connection costs”.The new Energy Policy provides the following policy statement for the power sector:“The government shall promote saf
251、e,reliable and sustainable electricity supply based on integrated planning,and facilitate stable regional electricity trade”(MEMD,2023b).The new Energy Policys main overall objectives for the power sector are:“strengthen electricity generation,transmission and distribution infrastructure “increase e
252、lectricity access”“promote nuclear energy development”.As of mid-2023,the government was planning a“second generation”of power sector reforms.However,the 2023 Energy Policy does not discuss these,presumably since important details remain to be decided(see below).Electricity Act recent amendments The
253、 main legislation governing the power sector is the Electricity Act 1999,which was passed at a time of severe power deficit and unsustainable government subsidies in the sector.Ugandas generation capacity has since grown and now surpasses consumption,though high tariffs have constrained demand.The g
254、overnment is planning changes to the sector that it hopes will help lower tariffs and promote further development of the sector and economy.To pave the way for these changes,it drafted a set of amendments to the Electricity Act,which was passed by parliament in 2022.The 2022 amendments notably inclu
255、de provisions that allow for:the formation of a new,vertically integrated Uganda National Electricity Company,reversing the earlier unbundling and paving the way for a“second generation”of sector reforms wheeling,and circumstances under which a generator may supply electricity to customers directly
256、net metering private participation in the transmission sector.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 35 2.ELECTRICITY Most of these provisions have yet to be operationalised and require further details to be worked out,including changes to the supporting regulatory framework.Market structure and reforms Uganda
257、 carried out a comprehensive“Power Sector Restructuring and Privatisation Strategy”in the late 1990s and early 2000s,under which it unbundled the vertically integrated Uganda Electricity Board in 2001 into three state-owned companies that respectively cover generation,transmission and distribution.I
258、t also introduced the possibility of private sector participation,which in practice has included a number of concession contracts,public-private partnerships and IPPs.At about the same time,the government created the independent ERA.Motivations for the reforms at the time included a lack of adequate
259、 generation and transmission capacity,very low electricity access rates,weak sector finances,and a lack of institutional capacity.The government is planning a“second generation”of power sector reforms that would remerge the three state-owned companies,the organisation of the sector as of mid-2023 is
260、 described below.The Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited is the state-owned body created in 2001 to handle the generation activities of the old Uganda Electricity Board.Two of the UEGCLs main generating assets have been operated by South Africas Eskom Uganda Limited since 2004 under a 20-y
261、ear concession contract for the 180 MW Nalubaale hydro power plant(HPP)and 200 MW Kiira HPP.This concession came to an end in March 2023 and was not renewed.The UEGCL has also been involved in developing several new large hydropower assets,including the 183 MW Isimba HPP and the 600 MW Karuma HPP.In
262、 addition to plants owned by the UEGCL,there are several large hydropower stations operated as public-private partnerships,as well as over 30 small IPPs,including HPPs,grid-connected solar PV installations and co-generation plants running on sugar cane waste(bagasse).The Uganda Electricity Transmiss
263、ion Company Limited is the state-owned body created in 2001 to take over the transmission and system operation activities of the old Uganda Electricity Board.The UETCL owns and operates all transmission infrastructure in the country above 33 kV.In addition to having responsibility for transmission,d
264、ispatch and system operation,the UETCL has been the single buyer of electricity from grid-based generating companies and single supplier to distribution companies connected to its transmission system.Although amendments made in 2022 to the Electricity Act ended the UETCLs single-buyer status,most ge
265、nerators and distribution companies continue to have contracts with the UETCL,since there is not yet a regulatory framework in place allowing generators to sell to customers directly.There are currently no end users directly connected to the transmission grid.The UETCL is also responsible for electr
266、icity export and import and has a licence from the Uganda Communications Commission to lease out the extra capacity of its fibre-optic communications system to Internet providers(UETCL,2023).The Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited is the state-owned body created in 2001 to take over the
267、distribution activities of the old Uganda Electricity Board.It owns all grid-connected distribution infrastructure rated 33 kV and below.Responsibility for managing most of these assets was transferred to a private company,Umeme,in 2005 IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 36 under a 20-year concession agree
268、ment(see Box 2.1).Umeme,whose network primarily covers urban and peri-urban areas,is currently responsible for distributing over 90%of grid-based electricity in Uganda.The government has decided not to renew Umemes concession when it expires in 2025.Several smaller distribution companies,mostly co-o
269、peratives,have rural concessions under which they lease distribution assets from the UEDCL that were funded and built by the Rural Electrification Agency(now a department within the MEMD)in the mid-2010s.The UEDCL also operates the distribution grids in nine rural territories directly.In 2021,the go
270、vernment announced it was planning a“second generation”of power sector reforms,under which it would re-consolidate the previously unbundled UEGCL,UETCL and UEDCL into a new,vertically integrated Uganda National Electricity Company.The government is still defining the details and timing of such refor
271、ms,although it has already paved the way for them with several amendments in 2022 to the Electricity Act,following a Power Sector Reforms Study in 2017.The proposed reforms are taking place within the context of a wider programme of rationalisation and merger of government agencies to reduce costs a
272、nd improve efficiency,which has already included the absorption of the former Rural Energy Agency into the MEMD as a ministerial department.The main stated motivation for the future reforms is to lower costs and better co-ordinate infrastructure planning between generation and transmission.In partic
273、ular,the government feels that a vertically integrated national company would rationalise costs compared to three separate companies,require a lower rate of return than private sector concessionaires and obtain cheaper capital on international markets.A major issue on the timing of the reforms is th
274、e expiry dates for the main concessions since ending these early would imply substantial costs.Eskoms 20-year concession to operate the 180 MW Nalubaale and 200 MW Kiira hydropower expired in 2023,after which the government has already decided that the UEGCL would take over the plants.Umemes 20-year
275、 concession to run the countrys main distribution network comes to a natural end in 2025 and the government has announced this will not be renewed either.The World Bank notes that the government“has informed development partners that they will ensure that Ugandas electricity sector rationalization p
276、rocess will be undertaken in a transparent and consultative manner,supported by comprehensive analytical findings and recommendations”(World Bank,2022a).The World Bank,which has been one of Ugandas most active development partners in the power sector over the past few decades,has agreed to provide t
277、he government with technical assistance for the new reforms.This technical assistance will aim to“establish the extent to which the governments set objectives are likely or unlikely to be met under the reforms,addressing any risks likely to be met in carrying out the reforms”.Following a tendering p
278、rocess,a consultant was expected to be engaged by May 2023.The chosen consultant“shall propose a strategy,roadmap,impact and action plans for implementing the second-generation power sector reforms,to ensure effective and competitive operations within the electricity supply industry”.In Phase I,the
279、consultant will conduct a“detailed analysis and generate key recommendations”.In Phase II,they will provide“transaction advisory services in implementing recommendations adopted by the government”(MEMD,2023d).IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 37 2.ELECTRICITY Box 2.1 Development assistance in the power se
280、ctor in Uganda The World Bank has been closely involved in Ugandas electricity sector since before the initial reforms of the early 2000s,playing important advisory,technical and funding roles in the decades since.This includes the ongoing Energy for Rural Transformation Project,now ending its third
281、 and final phase(ERT III),and the Power Sector Development Project,which is“aimed at reducing short-term power shortages and financial imbalances and facilitating orderly longer-term expansion of electricity service”(World Bank,2022b).Other major World Bank programmes in the power sector include the
282、 Electricity Sector Development Project(2011-2019),which was aimed at strengthening and expanding the transmission network to make fuller use of new capacity additions such as the Bujagali hydropower plant.The World Bank is currently preparing a major new power sector programme entitled the Uganda E
283、nergy Access Scale-up Project.While focusing primarily on energy access,one component will fund the consultant who will advise the government on its plans for new power sector reforms(World Bank,2022a).Ugandas other development partners in the power sector include Germany(KfW and GIZ),Norway,Japan(J
284、ica),the European Union,the African Development Bank,the Islamic Development Bank,the OPEC Fund for International Development,the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa and the Saudi Development Fund.Many of these have contributed to projects to expand access.Sources:World Bank(2022a;2022b).Ge
285、nerating capacity Current generating capacity is over three times the 317 MW that existed in 2002.The country experienced significant power deficits in the past,particularly between 2005 and 2012,at which point the long-delayed 250 MW Bujagali HPP finally came online.Since then,several other HPPs ha
286、ve been added,most under public-private partnerships.The number of plants has grown from just 3 in 2002 to over 50 by 2021,including a large number of small,independent HPPs.In 2021,Ugandas generating capacity was 1 346.6 MW,of which 80%was hydroelectric,8%was sugar cane bagasse-fuelled co-generatio
287、n,7.5%heavy fuel oil thermal and close to 5%PV solar.Once the 600 MW Karuma HPP comes fully online(expected in 2023),installed capacity will increase by nearly 50%.This will raise the share of hydropower capacity to over 85%and the overall renewable component in generating capacity to about 95%.IEA.
288、CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 38 Figure 2.1 Installed generating capacity by source in Uganda,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:GW=gigawatt;PV=photovoltaic.Hydropower plants Ugandas current generation mix is dominated by hydropower.The countrys main hydroelectric plants are:Nalubaale HPP(180 MW)was originally
289、 commissioned as a 150 MW plant in 1954 and refurbished in the 1990s.Formerly known as the Owen Falls Dam,it is located on the White Nile in Jinja District.It is owned by the UEGCL and has been operated by Eskom Uganda Limited since 2003 as part of a 20-year concession contract.Kiira HPP(200 MW)was
290、built between 1993 and 2003.Formerly known as the Owen Falls Extension,it is located near the Nalubaale HPP and is the only major HPP operating with a reservoir.It is owned by the UEGCL and operated by Eskom Uganda Limited under the same concession contract as Nalubaale.Eskoms concessions for both p
291、lants expired in 2023 and were not renewed.Bujagali HPP(250 MW)was built between 2007 and 2012,and its completion nearly doubled the countrys existing generating capacity at the time.It received major financing from the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development,among others.It is owned and operated by
292、Bujagali Energy Limited,which is required to transfer ownership to the UEGCL after 30 years.As of 2023,the main shareholder was Scatec(formerly SN Power),which purchased US-based Sithe Global Powers 65%share in 2018.(The original developer,AES,pulled out of the project in 2003.)Isimba HPP(183 MW)was
293、 commissioned in 2019.Located on the White Nile 4 km downstream from Simba Falls,it is owned and operated by the UEGCL and was largely financed by a loan from Chinas EXIM Bank.Achwa 1 and 2(41 MW and 42 MW)are located on the Achwa River in Gulu District.They were built by private developers and comm
294、issioned in 2021 and 2019,respectively.20%40%60%80%100%0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.520002005201020152021GWSolar PVOilBioenergyHydroShare of hydro(right axis)IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 39 2.ELECTRICITY Major hydropower projects under construction or development notably include:Karuma HPP(600 MW)has been under
295、 construction since 2013 and is expected to be fully commissioned sometime in 2023,at which point the countrys total capacity would reach nearly 2 000 MW.Karuma is located on the Victoria Nile in Kiryandongo District.Owned by the UEGCL,it has been largely financed by a loan from Chinas EXIM Bank.Muz
296、izi HPP(44.7 MW)in Kibaale District,is being developed by the UEGCL,which is currently looking for funding sources.Additional large hydropower projects that are proposed for development or further study in the NDP III include Ayago(840 MW),Kiba(330 MW)and Oriang(392 MW)(NPA,2020).More than 25 small
297、hydropower plants are operating on over 20 different rivers,3 most with individual capacities below 10 MW.The combined capacity of the small HPP is over 200 MW(MEMD,2023c).Co-generation plants(bagasse-fired)At least five sugar-processing plants produce power and heat for their own use by burning sug
298、ar cane bagasse,a waste product from their operations.They are licensed to sell excess power to the national grid.The largest of these are:Kakira Thermal Power Station(51.5 MW),owned by the Madhvani Group in Kakira,Jinja District,was completed in 2005 and upgraded from 12 MW in 2013.Kinyara Thermal
299、Power Station(40 MW),owned by Kinyara Sugar Works Limited in Kinyara,Masindi District.It was completed in 2009 and upgraded from 14.5 MW in 2015.SCOUL Thermal Power Station(25 MW)was built in 1998 and upgraded from 9.5 MW in 2020.Other plants fuelled by sugar cane bagasse include SAIL(11.9 MW)and Ma
300、yuge(9.2 MW)(MEMD,2023c).Thermal power plants(oil-fired)Between 2008 and 2010,to overcome severe power shortages while waiting for the Bujagali HPP to be completed,the government commissioned 130 MW of thermal power generating capacity designed to run on fuel oil:Namanve Thermal Power Station(50 MW)
301、,completed in 2008,is owned by the government of Uganda and operated by the UEGCL,following the expiry of the Implementation Agreement of Jacobsen Limited in 2021.Tororo Thermal Power Station(80 MW),completed in 2010,is owned and operated by Electro-Maxx Limited.At around 0.27 USD/kWh,the cost of mo
302、st of the countrys existing oil-fired thermal capacity is exceptionally high relative to that of its other capacity.Although these plants are only used for peaking,the take-or-pay provisions in their PPAs are reportedly one factor contributing to high overall electricity tariffs.3 Rivers where small
303、 hydropower plants are operating include:Achwa(2 sites),Amoa,Ishasha,Kagera,Kayambura,Kisiizi,Lubilia,Mahoma,Maziba,Mpanga,Mubuku(3 sites),Ndugutu,Nile(4 sites),Nkusi,Nyagak,Nyamasagani,Nyamwamba,Rwimi,Sindila,Siti(2 sites),Waki and Wambabya.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 40 TotalEnergies E&P Uganda re
304、portedly has been studying the construction of a 146 MW gas-fired plant that would utilise associated gas from the Tilenga petroleum project.Grid-connected solar PV There are six grid-connected PV solar electricity generating plants operating in Uganda,most rated 10 MW or lower.These include:Soroti
305、Solar Power Station(10 MW)in Soroti District,completed in 2016 and owned by Access Uganda Solar Limited.(This is the first solar project in the country.)Tororo Solar North Power Station(10 MW)in Tororo District,completed in 2017 and owned by Tororo Solar North Ltd.Kabulasoke Solar Power Station(20 M
306、W)in Gomba District,completed in 2018 and owned by Xsaba Power Limited.Mayuge Solar Power Station(10 MW)in Mayuge District,completed in 2019 and owned by Emerging Power U Ltd.More information on solar power plants can be found in Chapters 3 and 4.Future capacity According to Vision 2040,Uganda will
307、require 41 738 MW by 2040 to meet the governments per capita annual consumption goal of 3 668 kWh.This is more than 30 times the countrys current generating capacity.Since there are limits to hydropower development potential(est.4 100 MW),Vision 2040 expects nearly 60%(24 000 MW)of capacity by 2040
308、would need to be nuclear(NPA,2017).This is noted in the following breakdown:4 500 MW(10.8%)hydropower 1 500 MW(3.6%)geothermal 24 000 MW(57.4%)nuclear 5 000 MW(12%)solar 1 700 MW(4.1%)thermal based on biomass(presumably bagasse)800 MW(1.9%)thermal based on peat 4 300 MW(10.3%)thermal based on fuel o
309、il.4 The UETCLs 2018 Grid Development Plan uses Vision 2040s consumption goals as one scenario but provides a base case under which the required capacity is expected to reach 3 536 MW by 2040,or about 2.5 times the current capacity.This scenario does not include nuclear,but a generation mix that con
310、tinues to be dominated by hydropower(73%),followed by solar and wind(together 20%),geothermal(3%),bagasse-fired co-generation(2%),and oil-fired thermal(2%)(UETCL,2018).Although the 2023 Energy Policy references the generation mix from Vision 2040,the MEMD notes that current plans for nuclear power c
311、all for the development of 2 000 MW by 2040(MEMD,2023b)(see the section on nuclear below).4 Total equals 48 100 MW.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 41 2.ELECTRICITY Generation Uganda generated 5 211 gigawatt hours(GWh)in 2021,up from less than half this amount in 2007(Figure 2.2).During 2021,most electri
312、city came from HPPs(90%).Co-generation plants burning sugar cane bagasse provided the next largest amount(7%),followed by solar PV plants(2%)and thermal plants running on fuel oil(1%).Relative annual shares depend significantly on available hydropower capacity,which is influenced by rainfall and wat
313、er levels,particularly from Lake Victoria.5 Figure 2.2 Electricity generation in Uganda,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:TWh=terawatt hour;Wh=watt-hour.Source:IEA(2023).Transmission The UETCLs transmission network consisted of 3 385 km at the end of December 2021(MEMD,2023c),nearly double the 1 165 km
314、that existed in 2003(World Bank,2022a).Most lines are 132 kV.The backbone of the system links the Bujagali,Kiira and Nalubaale power plants in Jinja District to Kampala,though some parts of the country are not well covered,particularly in the north.In addition to managing the transmission grid,the U
315、ETCL serves as a system operator and single buyer,although its monopoly in the latter role is set to end,according to amendments made to the Electricity Act in 2022.5 There are an estimated 250 million tonnes of peat in Uganda,mostly located in the western and south-western parts of the country.Cons
316、idering the varying quality of the peat,however,and the rather strict wetland policy in the country,only about 10%of the countrys peat is thought to be realistically available for future extraction and power generation.Nevertheless,this reportedly would be enough to fuel around 800 MW of generating
317、capacity for around 50 years(ERA,2014).So far,however,peat is not used as an energy source in Uganda.20 40 60 80 100 120 1 2 3 4 5 620002005201020152021Wh/capitaTWhSolarBioenergyHydroOilElectricityoutput/capita(right axis)IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 42 All of the UETCLs customers are distribution co
318、mpanies,the largest of which is Umeme.There are currently no end users connected directly to the transmission system.The possibility for large consumers to connect directly to the UETCLs grid was established by the 2022 amendments to the Electricity Act,though the ERA is still elaborating the regula
319、tory framework.Although almost all generators continue to have PPAs with the UETCL(until recently,the single buyer),in practice,some smaller generators are not connected to its grid but to the distribution system of Umeme or one of the smaller concessionaires,which wheel the power to UETCL substatio
320、ns.The inadequate transmission and distribution system continues to be a significant constraint on the full use of the countrys generating capacity and has resulted in high costs for the UETCL in take-or-pay contracts.The grid capacities of intermediate distribution networks are often insufficient t
321、o fully transmit power from distributed power generation plants to demand centres.The NDP III calls for the transmission network to be expanded to 4 354 km and provides a list of priority lines for rehabilitation and construction(NPA,2020).There are also plans for a possible regional 220 kV ring net
322、work around Lake Victoria for future interconnection with the East African Community Grid(World Bank,2022b).Uganda has developed a framework for private sector investment in transmission that includes regulations,investment guidance and standardised agreements to increase investment and lower costs.
323、The first pilot projects for private sector involvement in transmission are currently being negotiated.While the details have not yet been fully defined,they reportedly may involve private construction and ownership of transmission lines and substations.The operation of the assets would be either by
324、 the UETCL or the private entity under a concession arrangement.Eventual ownership may then be transferred to the UETCL(or its successor company)after the concession period.According to the ERA,the UETCL purchased 4 722.9 GWh(generation+imports)and sold 4 536.6 GWh in FY2020/21,implying transmission
325、 losses of about 3.9%(ERA,2021).Distribution In 2005,the UEDCLs existing distribution network,including the right to a radius of 1 km around it,was transferred to Umeme under a 20-year concession contract(World Bank,2022a).See Box 2.2 for more information on Umeme.IEA.CC BY 4.0.2.ELECTRICITY 43 2.EL
326、ECTRICITY Box 2.2 Umeme Umeme is a private company founded in 2004 by several investors,including South Africas Eskom and the United Kingdoms Commonwealth Development Corporation.The company was taken public in 2011 and is listed on the Uganda Securities Exchange and cross-listed on the Nairobi Secu
327、rities Exchange.In 2022,Umeme had over 6 000 shareholders,the largest of which was Ugandas National Social Security Fund,which held 23.34%.In 2018,the government instructed the Minister of Energy and Mineral Development to begin negotiations with Umeme on extending or renewing the concession agreeme
328、nt,which otherwise was set to end on 31 March 2025.However,in 2021,Cabinet decided not to renew the concession.An important item in the negotiations was Umemes guaranteed return on investment,which is 20%under the current contract.Although this return on investment reportedly reflected the perceived
329、 risk for investors at the time the contract was negotiated,it is cited by many as a major reason for Ugandas high tariffs.Uncertainty regarding contract renewal reportedly has made it difficult in recent years for Umeme to raise money on capital markets to finance further investments in the network
330、.For example,regarding the terms of a USD 70 million syndicated loan secured by Umeme in 2019,the International Finance Corporation country manager commented that the lack of certainty about the extension had negatively affected the conditions of the loan,in particular by limiting the term to the cu
331、rrent end date of the concession(Monitor,2019a).For more information,see https:/www.umeme.co.ug Source:Monitor(2019a).In 2013,following the formulation of a Rural Electrification Strategy and Plan,Uganda was divided into 14 rural service territories,excluding Umemes concession area.The Rural Electri
332、fication Agency(REA;later absorbed into the MEMD as the Rural Electrification Department in 2021)contracted out several of these to service providers,which included both co-operatives and private companies.The concessionaires took over new distribution networks whose construction was overseen by the
333、 REA using government and donor funding.Of the 14 non-Umeme concessions,4 are operated by co-operatives or private companies and connected to the UETCLs transmission network:Hydromax,Kilembe Investments,Pader Abim Community Multipurpose Electricity Cooperative Society and Kyegegwa Rural Electricity Cooperative Society.In 2021,the ERA suspended the licence of Bundibugyo Electricity Cooperative Soci